WEBVTT - Week 18 Predictions, Player Props and Mapping The Playoff Landscape 0:00:04.299 --> 0:00:06.699 NFL Game Deview is a production of the NFL in 0:00:06.739 --> 0:00:11.459 partnership with iHeartRadio. 0:00:12.179 --> 0:00:12.579 Everybody. 0:00:12.579 --> 0:00:15.219 Welcome to Game Debut, presented by Mercedes Benz, Patrick Claiba. 0:00:15.259 --> 0:00:17.859 I'm back here with Greg Rosenthal and Cynthia Freeland. 0:00:17.939 --> 0:00:20.699 We enjoyed last week except for the fact that. 0:00:20.619 --> 0:00:23.939 Greg Rosenthal has almost put enough distance to win the 0:00:23.979 --> 0:00:25.859 regular season Picks Championship. 0:00:26.499 --> 0:00:27.739 Congratulations, Greg, I. 0:00:27.739 --> 0:00:29.099 Thought this is the part where you get on me 0:00:29.139 --> 0:00:31.179 for picking the Panthers last night. I don't like this 0:00:31.219 --> 0:00:33.459 beginning part where we talk about my good record. Can 0:00:33.499 --> 0:00:35.299 we put it up at least it just makes me 0:00:35.379 --> 0:00:36.459 even more unlikable. 0:00:36.539 --> 0:00:38.979 Okay, Well, instead of a picture of your actual face, 0:00:39.059 --> 0:00:41.059 we'll go to a picture that you love so much 0:00:42.259 --> 0:00:43.619 with you rocking the crown. 0:00:43.699 --> 0:00:45.779 One hundred and sixty one and ninety five. 0:00:47.139 --> 0:00:49.179 It's good, very good. Congratulations. 0:00:49.219 --> 0:00:52.099 I've noticed Cynthia hasn't been as warm and friendly to 0:00:52.139 --> 0:00:52.979 me around the office. 0:00:52.979 --> 0:00:53.939 Exactly normal. 0:00:54.339 --> 0:00:57.259 Yeah, you know, I feel like I'm like, well, we'll 0:00:57.259 --> 0:00:58.899 see what happens in the playoffs. 0:00:58.499 --> 0:01:02.499 Much like you did last year. Okay, different record, it's 0:01:02.539 --> 0:01:03.379 all cumulative. 0:01:03.699 --> 0:01:05.859 Let's get to the actually Bill's Dolphins. The game of 0:01:05.899 --> 0:01:08.339 the week the team's met back in Week four forever ago. 0:01:08.379 --> 0:01:12.299 Y'all remember that Josh Allen went superhero mode through four touchdowns. 0:01:12.299 --> 0:01:16.059 He ran one in Buffalo all over the Fins forty 0:01:16.179 --> 0:01:19.899 eight to twenty, and we get the rematch coming up 0:01:20.379 --> 0:01:21.099 Sunday night. 0:01:21.619 --> 0:01:22.419 The stakes are high. 0:01:22.499 --> 0:01:24.859 The winner of Bill's Dolphins not only wins the AFC East, 0:01:24.859 --> 0:01:27.419 but they get the two seed overall in the AFC. 0:01:27.619 --> 0:01:30.419 Also the scenario where the Bills, if they lose, they 0:01:30.419 --> 0:01:32.459 can miss the playoffs entirely. 0:01:33.379 --> 0:01:34.659 What's gonna happen, Cynthia. 0:01:35.219 --> 0:01:35.859 I think this is. 0:01:35.779 --> 0:01:37.739 Gonna be a close game, but I think the Bills 0:01:37.779 --> 0:01:39.939 managed to pull it off. I like how everyone's like 0:01:39.979 --> 0:01:42.179 in South Beach. They're not actually in South Beach. They're 0:01:42.179 --> 0:01:44.019 a little bit further north than that, Davy, But we're 0:01:44.019 --> 0:01:46.659 good here twenty five to twenty four. And I want 0:01:46.699 --> 0:01:49.419 to talk about Josh Allen and his O line. There's 0:01:49.419 --> 0:01:50.819 a couple of things that I want to point out. 0:01:50.859 --> 0:01:53.739 Because Josh Allen isn't necessarily the easiest quarterback to block, 0:01:53.779 --> 0:01:55.899 where he holds onto the ball longer than most, and 0:01:55.939 --> 0:01:58.059 he's always the threat to scramble. They don't often know 0:01:58.179 --> 0:02:00.979 necessarily what he's gonna do if they're under pressure. But 0:02:01.099 --> 0:02:04.019 this team thirty one point one. That's his season rate 0:02:04.339 --> 0:02:06.779 being under pressure. That's the eighth lowest. And by the way, 0:02:06.819 --> 0:02:09.299 his sack rate three point five is the lowest. So 0:02:09.659 --> 0:02:12.699 lots of credit to Dion Dawkins's left tackle there, Walter 0:02:12.739 --> 0:02:15.579 Payton min of the Year nominee. Really interesting stuff here. 0:02:15.579 --> 0:02:17.539 And by the way, they also have a forty seven 0:02:17.619 --> 0:02:20.819 point three run success rate. That rush rate, that's a 0:02:20.819 --> 0:02:22.699 really big deal. That is number one in the NFL. 0:02:22.699 --> 0:02:24.979 That's better than the Niners. That's better than the Ravens. 0:02:25.059 --> 0:02:25.779 That's better than. 0:02:25.659 --> 0:02:28.579 The Eagles, it's better than the Rams. Wow, better than everyone. 0:02:29.419 --> 0:02:32.099 I was gonna name all thirty one teams, but didn't 0:02:32.139 --> 0:02:32.819 if we had enough. 0:02:32.659 --> 0:02:33.019 Time for that. 0:02:33.059 --> 0:02:34.539 You know, I love it when I'm on the same 0:02:34.619 --> 0:02:35.899 side as the model here. 0:02:36.019 --> 0:02:37.819 I have the Bills winning this game too. 0:02:37.979 --> 0:02:40.859 It's a little further in terms of the margin, twenty 0:02:40.899 --> 0:02:43.579 seven to twenty three, and it's because of the defense 0:02:43.699 --> 0:02:45.859 in Buffalo, Josh Allen the offense and they're ups and 0:02:45.859 --> 0:02:48.179 their downs get so much attention that I think we've 0:02:48.219 --> 0:02:51.059 lost one of the best coaching jobs by Sean McDermott. 0:02:51.059 --> 0:02:53.739 On the defensive side in a long time, ed Oliver 0:02:53.819 --> 0:02:56.859 there has stepped up as their premier defensive tackle. But 0:02:56.939 --> 0:03:00.299 in the secondary where they've had those injuries, they've really 0:03:00.339 --> 0:03:03.419 seen Razul Douglass this pick up, step up, Christian Bevenford 0:03:03.659 --> 0:03:07.259 step up. They've made a decision to bench Von Miller entirely. 0:03:07.339 --> 0:03:10.659 I think that's helping them out. And then their linebackers 0:03:10.659 --> 0:03:13.659 and right dake Onon Jones is back, and then their 0:03:13.659 --> 0:03:16.579 linebacker position. When they last played the Bills, uh, they 0:03:16.619 --> 0:03:19.899 had Matt Milano. Now they've had Bernard and Terrell Dotson 0:03:20.059 --> 0:03:23.179 step up, and since Week thirteen they are fifth in 0:03:23.299 --> 0:03:26.019 EPA per play allowed. I think it's the defense that 0:03:26.139 --> 0:03:29.459 gets them over the line. It's it's so clear you win, 0:03:29.899 --> 0:03:32.619 you make the playoffs. It's much more clear than our 0:03:32.659 --> 0:03:36.299 producers telling me, oh, does the picks competition continue pass 0:03:36.379 --> 0:03:38.019 this week and they're like, well, we'll see how this 0:03:38.059 --> 0:03:38.539 week goes. 0:03:38.579 --> 0:03:39.899 I mean that makes no sense. 0:03:39.939 --> 0:03:43.099 Well, I mean ultimately last year you said it's a 0:03:43.139 --> 0:03:46.219 different one in the playoffs because that I had one 0:03:46.419 --> 0:03:47.059 going away and. 0:03:47.059 --> 0:03:49.539 You couldn't get back. Now this year we changed. 0:03:49.579 --> 0:03:51.579 Depends I I'm winning. Yeah, we're gonna, we're gonna. 0:03:51.579 --> 0:03:54.099 We're gonna nail something down before the playoffs start. But 0:03:54.139 --> 0:03:57.459 we were unanimous here. I've got the Buffalo Bills winning 0:03:57.459 --> 0:03:59.219 this one as well. Twenty eight twenty six. Of course, 0:03:59.219 --> 0:04:01.899 injury is a huge factor from We're gonna hope Jael 0:04:01.939 --> 0:04:03.779 and Wattle plays in this game. No more Bradley Chubb 0:04:03.859 --> 0:04:06.019 for the rest to this year and maybe a lot 0:04:06.059 --> 0:04:08.259 of next year. But a huge factor in this game. 0:04:08.539 --> 0:04:11.619 Last week for the Dolphins was Duke Riley matched up 0:04:11.659 --> 0:04:12.379 with Justice Hill. 0:04:12.619 --> 0:04:15.379 It did not go well. It was the Justice Hill game. 0:04:15.699 --> 0:04:18.739 He doesn't have to play a dangerous running quarterback with 0:04:18.779 --> 0:04:21.499 a gifted pass catching running back this Oh wait, now 0:04:21.619 --> 0:04:24.619 it's gonna be James Cook, who caught one pass in 0:04:24.659 --> 0:04:27.059 the first matchup, but that pass was for forty eight yards. 0:04:27.139 --> 0:04:29.259 I think he's gonna get a few more targets Sunday 0:04:29.299 --> 0:04:31.619 and the Bills win meme away offense. 0:04:31.819 --> 0:04:33.619 We do still think the Dolphins are good. 0:04:33.779 --> 0:04:37.019 Yes, Dolphins fans, I vote you most likely to meet. 0:04:36.939 --> 0:04:38.859 Us, so most likely to meet us. 0:04:39.539 --> 0:04:42.219 But that's why we do it, because we want to 0:04:42.219 --> 0:04:44.099 be mean, So we win no matter what. 0:04:44.099 --> 0:04:44.939 Tom for more or less. 0:04:45.219 --> 0:04:48.099 Let's talk about some player props for Bills Dolphins greg 0:04:48.179 --> 0:04:49.779 more or less than two hundred and eighty three and 0:04:49.819 --> 0:04:51.699 a half total yards for Josh. 0:04:51.419 --> 0:04:54.459 Allen, it's gonna be more. It's gonna be way more. 0:04:54.739 --> 0:04:57.139 It's either gonna be way more or way less, because 0:04:57.179 --> 0:04:59.659 it's either gonna be a disaster. 0:04:59.939 --> 0:05:01.699 Don't you agree. I mean, he was a bit of 0:05:01.699 --> 0:05:05.179 a mess last week. It's like it's either great or 0:05:05.179 --> 0:05:05.739 it's awful. 0:05:05.739 --> 0:05:07.259 And I don't know what to think about this Dolphins 0:05:07.299 --> 0:05:10.019 defense who had played so well but last week really collapsed. 0:05:10.259 --> 0:05:13.179 And Patrick mentioned how Bradley Chubb is out. They're also 0:05:13.219 --> 0:05:16.219 without Xavi and Howard, their great cornerback, and so in 0:05:16.259 --> 0:05:19.779 a big time game. I do trust Josh Allen. He's 0:05:19.819 --> 0:05:22.019 been in so many of these over the last few years. 0:05:22.099 --> 0:05:23.259 He gets it done well. 0:05:23.299 --> 0:05:24.979 If he does turn the ball over a lot, maybe 0:05:24.979 --> 0:05:26.179 that's more yards for him. 0:05:26.379 --> 0:05:27.539 Cynthia will talk. 0:05:27.219 --> 0:05:28.939 About Lola though for more or less than one and 0:05:28.939 --> 0:05:29.739 a half touchdowns. 0:05:29.739 --> 0:05:32.219 We're going for more here Tyreek Hill. See that guy 0:05:32.299 --> 0:05:34.379 running into the end zone. I know he was held 0:05:34.419 --> 0:05:37.019 in check last time they matched up. However, this is 0:05:37.059 --> 0:05:39.459 a guy who's gotten the most space to catch those 0:05:39.499 --> 0:05:44.179 downfield passes. That's not like they are infallible in that secondary. 0:05:44.259 --> 0:05:47.499 I still think that Tyreek Hill really good as it 0:05:47.539 --> 0:05:47.979 turns out. 0:05:48.299 --> 0:05:50.899 Hey, you know what, Cynthia, I also agree Tyrik Hill 0:05:50.979 --> 0:05:52.619 is very good. That's why I think he will have 0:05:52.779 --> 0:05:56.139 over ninety one receiving yards. Earlier in this year, this 0:05:56.139 --> 0:05:58.539 would not even be a question, but Tyreek dealing with 0:05:58.579 --> 0:06:01.019 that ankle injury for the past few weeks. I still think, 0:06:01.059 --> 0:06:03.699 you know, fifty percent of Tyreek Hill still gets a 0:06:03.699 --> 0:06:06.179 pretty clol to one hundred receiving yards. So I got 0:06:06.219 --> 0:06:08.659 more there. Let's go over to the NFC now, though, 0:06:08.899 --> 0:06:12.059 because everybody's been talking about the wild endings to last 0:06:12.139 --> 0:06:15.379 year's Cowboys, I mean last week's Cowboys Lions game. I'm 0:06:15.499 --> 0:06:18.059 very sorry, Cynthia, but let's not forget about Ceede Lamb's 0:06:18.099 --> 0:06:19.659 historic performance. 0:06:21.499 --> 0:06:23.819 Back to throw the blutch him from the safety spot 0:06:23.899 --> 0:06:26.819 and crush out of states, then lunch to his life, 0:06:27.099 --> 0:06:28.179 throws on the round in. 0:06:28.179 --> 0:06:31.059 The middle of the Atlamic A fifty You ever get 0:06:31.099 --> 0:06:31.859 anywhere near him? 0:06:32.259 --> 0:06:37.419 Lambs the cruel. If they wanted to CD Lamb ninety 0:06:37.819 --> 0:06:40.739 two years Trump get us not for. 0:06:40.859 --> 0:06:42.499 The Dallas touchdown. 0:06:43.859 --> 0:06:46.499 Time going to drive to excellence preserved by Mercedes been ceds. 0:06:46.539 --> 0:06:48.059 The game would have been even better if the side 0:06:48.099 --> 0:06:51.419 of the end zone wasn't lava. Cowboys and Commanders, Dallas 0:06:51.459 --> 0:06:53.779 controls their playoff destiny. With a win, they claim the 0:06:53.899 --> 0:06:56.859 NFC East thrown and the two seed in the NFC. 0:06:57.339 --> 0:06:59.019 Do all of those things happen, though, of. 0:06:58.979 --> 0:07:01.619 Course they happened, Patrick, It's they're playing the Commanders. 0:07:01.659 --> 0:07:03.099 They haven't won in two months. 0:07:03.259 --> 0:07:06.859 Forty one to seven is the score, so that thirteen 0:07:06.899 --> 0:07:07.579 and a half points. 0:07:07.619 --> 0:07:08.579 That's not nearly enough. 0:07:08.579 --> 0:07:11.739 It's partly because of this Cowboys defense and Mico Parsons. 0:07:11.779 --> 0:07:13.779 And when I watch Michael Parsons each week, he still 0:07:13.819 --> 0:07:15.379 has a chance to win Defensive Player of the Year. 0:07:15.459 --> 0:07:17.939 This is a theme throughout this show. All these defensive 0:07:17.939 --> 0:07:20.339 players have a chance for one last statement that you 0:07:20.459 --> 0:07:23.779 remember when I watch Parsons, I think I know the 0:07:23.859 --> 0:07:26.339 sacks don't say it, but he feels like he's the 0:07:26.339 --> 0:07:28.619 best defensive player in the league, and some other stats 0:07:28.619 --> 0:07:30.779 do say it. He has the quickest time to pressure 0:07:30.819 --> 0:07:33.059 ye in the league. He has the most pressure in 0:07:33.059 --> 0:07:35.739 the league. He has the best pressure percentage, in the league. 0:07:35.739 --> 0:07:38.139 He's faced the most double teams in the league, and 0:07:38.179 --> 0:07:40.899 despite those double teams, he has the most pressures through 0:07:40.939 --> 0:07:41.859 those double teams. 0:07:41.899 --> 0:07:43.619 And so I love it when the. 0:07:43.579 --> 0:07:48.379 Next gen stats in the research department just supports my 0:07:48.539 --> 0:07:51.019 eyeball test, which is that this guy actually is the best. 0:07:51.059 --> 0:07:53.579 I love it when you talk about the research department 0:07:54.179 --> 0:07:56.459 sex up the research department there for us. 0:07:56.539 --> 0:07:57.059 I love it. 0:07:57.379 --> 0:07:59.579 I'm with you on this one. I have a closer margin. 0:07:59.619 --> 0:08:02.739 I have thirty to nineteen in this matchup. I'm curious 0:08:02.779 --> 0:08:05.299 to see what version of this O line we get 0:08:05.339 --> 0:08:07.779 heading into the playoffs. We know the Cowboys are going. 0:08:08.019 --> 0:08:10.739 They brought in Lyle Collins this week. You don't often 0:08:10.779 --> 0:08:13.059 see that happen so late in the game for a 0:08:13.099 --> 0:08:16.819 team that's really this kind of hopeful in terms of 0:08:16.939 --> 0:08:19.499 where their playoff inspirations or where they think they're going 0:08:19.539 --> 0:08:22.499 to go. Aspirations are going to lie. So I'm curious 0:08:22.539 --> 0:08:25.139 to see. We've seen some areas where they've really been 0:08:25.139 --> 0:08:27.699 hampered by injuries and other times where it hasn't really 0:08:27.739 --> 0:08:30.979 been such a big issue. So I'm really monitoring this closely. 0:08:31.059 --> 0:08:34.139 It's not that I think that Washington has the end 0:08:34.139 --> 0:08:36.739 all be all of pass rush. But the interior, those 0:08:36.739 --> 0:08:39.459 two guys in the middle, they are really good. They 0:08:39.579 --> 0:08:41.979 both went to Alabama. They're both really good. You can 0:08:42.019 --> 0:08:43.899 look them up if you want to. Jonathan Allen, drunk 0:08:43.899 --> 0:08:44.419 pain whatever. 0:08:44.459 --> 0:08:44.779 We're good. 0:08:44.899 --> 0:08:46.859 But they're going to be an interesting matchup for this 0:08:46.939 --> 0:08:47.379 O line. 0:08:47.459 --> 0:08:50.099 Yeah, at one point the defensive line had a lot 0:08:50.099 --> 0:08:52.459 of talent in total, and then they decided to donate 0:08:52.899 --> 0:08:53.859 that defensive line too. 0:08:54.099 --> 0:08:57.459 There seem like they're sitting some people there. I see 0:08:57.499 --> 0:08:57.899 what you're doing. 0:08:57.979 --> 0:09:01.419 Yeah, it's unanimous here. I've got Dallas as well. I 0:09:01.419 --> 0:09:03.779 think Dallas gets out in front and actually coase to 0:09:03.819 --> 0:09:05.859 a win in this one. So thirteen and a half 0:09:05.859 --> 0:09:08.219 feels a little bit rich for me. But I've got 0:09:08.219 --> 0:09:10.739 a number. If you like correlation and causation. 0:09:10.379 --> 0:09:10.579 I do. 0:09:10.819 --> 0:09:13.139 I got a number for you. Is the Canary and 0:09:13.219 --> 0:09:15.099 the coal Mine. The harbinger. 0:09:15.579 --> 0:09:18.779 Ricodoubell when he carries the ball more than five times, 0:09:19.139 --> 0:09:21.859 Dallas is five and zero with an average margin of 0:09:21.939 --> 0:09:23.659 victory of twenty seven points. 0:09:24.539 --> 0:09:26.899 Look at the numbers, folks, The numbers are never wrong. 0:09:27.139 --> 0:09:30.099 You give Rico Dowdle the ball six times and guarantees 0:09:31.099 --> 0:09:35.659 guarantees the Dallas lit It is tough to find a 0:09:35.699 --> 0:09:37.299 spot to talk about the Washington Commanders. 0:09:37.659 --> 0:09:39.179 Late in twenty twenty three. We're gonna stay in the 0:09:39.259 --> 0:09:39.899 NFC East, though. 0:09:39.899 --> 0:09:42.219 The Eagles have lost four of their last five games, 0:09:42.539 --> 0:09:47.139 none more shocking than the disappointment against the Cardinals, which 0:09:47.259 --> 0:09:50.699 now hand off Connor straight ahead geese to the goal line. 0:09:50.619 --> 0:09:52.819 And the cross for the go ahead touchdown. 0:09:53.219 --> 0:09:57.139 James Conner punches it in and the Cards take the lead. 0:09:57.379 --> 0:10:01.139 Hurt's waiting around, lets it develop, keeps one for the 0:10:01.219 --> 0:10:01.779 end zone. 0:10:02.299 --> 0:10:06.139 It is they are set there and that's the game. 0:10:06.659 --> 0:10:11.139 The Cardinals come to Philadelphia and knock off the Eagles. 0:10:12.739 --> 0:10:15.179 The Eagles and the Giants Philly can still win the 0:10:15.259 --> 0:10:17.139 NFC East, but they do need some help. They're gonna 0:10:17.179 --> 0:10:20.699 need to do so without Devonte Smith. Greg Can they 0:10:20.739 --> 0:10:21.019 do it. 0:10:21.179 --> 0:10:22.819 I think they do it, but I think it's difficult 0:10:22.859 --> 0:10:25.779 because everything's difficult for the Eagles right now. Thirty four 0:10:25.819 --> 0:10:29.219 to thirty is my score a shootout, and it's Jalen 0:10:29.299 --> 0:10:32.259 Hurts who ultimately gets him over the finish line to 0:10:32.339 --> 0:10:34.539 win this game. Even without DeVante Smith. I feel like 0:10:34.539 --> 0:10:37.699 I'm taking crazy pills. Hearing people talk about the Eagles 0:10:37.699 --> 0:10:40.059 this week and it's like, oh, Jalen Hurts, He's not 0:10:40.099 --> 0:10:43.059 been great against the Zero Blitz and like they've had 0:10:43.099 --> 0:10:47.899 some miscommunication offense. Has anyone watched this team? It's entirely 0:10:48.019 --> 0:10:50.379 the defense. Jalen Hurts has played great in the last 0:10:50.379 --> 0:10:54.339 two weeks. He played great last week against Arizona. They're 0:10:54.619 --> 0:10:56.819 one of the worst, if not the worst defense in 0:10:56.859 --> 0:10:59.819 the league, despite being a preseason Super Bowl favorite. My 0:10:59.979 --> 0:11:03.139 pick numbers all say it it's the defense, and Jalen 0:11:03.179 --> 0:11:04.939 Hurts is playing excellent football. 0:11:05.019 --> 0:11:05.659 Is he the MVP? 0:11:05.859 --> 0:11:08.099 No, But he's like a top seven or eight quarterback 0:11:08.099 --> 0:11:10.099 and they have a top seven or eight offense by 0:11:10.139 --> 0:11:13.699 basically every metric you look at. It's all on the defense, 0:11:14.099 --> 0:11:16.619 and my guy, Jalen Hurts is gonna get it done 0:11:16.659 --> 0:11:17.819 against this Giants team. 0:11:18.339 --> 0:11:20.579 I love that I also have a win. I have 0:11:20.579 --> 0:11:23.059 a more Winny win than you. Twenty seven to twenty 0:11:23.099 --> 0:11:25.819 one is my final score. But I do want to 0:11:25.859 --> 0:11:28.619 give a little love to Tyrod Taylor. Why because he's 0:11:28.699 --> 0:11:31.419 actually making this Giants offense not just. 0:11:31.619 --> 0:11:33.099 Like watchable, but fun to watch. 0:11:33.419 --> 0:11:36.699 Look at this deep pass ye right in the bread 0:11:36.739 --> 0:11:40.419 basket also their last matchup. He was a difference maker, 0:11:40.619 --> 0:11:43.739 his ability to run, his ability to withstand pressure, because 0:11:43.739 --> 0:11:45.419 we know this O line is an area that they 0:11:45.419 --> 0:11:48.339 will be looking to improve come draft season. I just 0:11:48.419 --> 0:11:51.659 feel like, in a game where these two franchises not 0:11:51.819 --> 0:11:54.179 the best of friends, not BFFs trying to help each 0:11:54.179 --> 0:11:56.499 other out Tyrod Taylor, they're gonna have a bunch of 0:11:56.539 --> 0:11:59.259 fun things to watch him, like succeed and do well. 0:11:59.299 --> 0:12:01.219 And I got to give him some love because it's 0:12:01.219 --> 0:12:03.619 not easy to come in and those circumstances and perform well, 0:12:03.619 --> 0:12:04.059 and he has. 0:12:04.299 --> 0:12:06.179 And it would be tough to have high expectations for 0:12:06.219 --> 0:12:09.459 Ty if you were playing the twenty twenty two Eagles defense. 0:12:09.499 --> 0:12:12.059 But as Greg mentioned, it has been a struggle. If 0:12:12.059 --> 0:12:13.939 you go back to those three games before they made 0:12:14.019 --> 0:12:17.459 the switch at defensive coordinator, they gave up thirty four 0:12:17.499 --> 0:12:20.059 points a game to three teams that had top ten 0:12:20.139 --> 0:12:22.899 offenses in the NFL, And so they bring in Matt 0:12:22.899 --> 0:12:24.899 Patricia and they've given up. 0:12:26.059 --> 0:12:27.939 They've given up twenty six points a game. 0:12:27.819 --> 0:12:30.699 Which is better, but that's against the seventeenth, twenty fourth, 0:12:30.779 --> 0:12:33.179 and thirtieth ranks scoring offenses in the league. And I 0:12:33.219 --> 0:12:35.339 want to go back and look at their best defensive 0:12:35.339 --> 0:12:38.419 play from last week against the Arizona Cardinals. Sidney Brown 0:12:38.419 --> 0:12:40.619 gets this interception, runs it all the way back for 0:12:40.699 --> 0:12:41.419 a touchdown. 0:12:41.499 --> 0:12:43.939 This was a bad throw by Kyler people. 0:12:44.299 --> 0:12:47.019 Initially it looked like it was a miscommunication, but Kyler's 0:12:47.059 --> 0:12:49.299 looking that way to that side of the field the 0:12:49.459 --> 0:12:51.859 entire way. On the backside, Greg Dortsch has opened up 0:12:51.859 --> 0:12:53.899 the scene for a touchdown because Sidney Brown is running 0:12:53.899 --> 0:12:56.139 and covering grass like there's there's nobody over there. 0:12:56.299 --> 0:12:57.019 It's just a. 0:12:57.019 --> 0:13:01.099 Tough ideally stop the Eagles literally the entire game, and 0:13:01.139 --> 0:13:01.459 it was. 0:13:01.419 --> 0:13:05.339 Because a bad offense. Despite all that, we're all on. 0:13:05.739 --> 0:13:08.539 Don't let us down. See if you're hurting my feelings. 0:13:08.699 --> 0:13:11.019 Coming up, it's win and in for CJ. 0:13:11.179 --> 0:13:14.019 Stroud and the Texans boll Demico Ryan squad take care 0:13:14.059 --> 0:13:17.499 of business Saturday against the Colts. The loser misses the playoffs. 0:13:17.979 --> 0:13:19.579 Our picks next. 0:13:19.339 --> 0:13:30.579 On game debut. 0:13:30.699 --> 0:13:34.459 We're back on game devut and oh the AFC South 0:13:34.659 --> 0:13:39.699 a division of intrigue currently favored the Jacksonville Jaguars with 0:13:39.779 --> 0:13:42.099 the Texans and the Colts right there. 0:13:42.179 --> 0:13:46.019 In fact, let's spend an entire block on the AFC 0:13:46.259 --> 0:13:49.219 South as we first yeah to get into some winning 0:13:49.259 --> 0:13:51.779 moves presented by Intoit Turbo Tax. The Jags and the 0:13:51.779 --> 0:13:54.859 Titans first up, where a Jacksonville win they clinched the 0:13:54.899 --> 0:13:57.899 AFC South for the second street season. Ryan Tannehill starts 0:13:57.899 --> 0:14:02.019 for the Titans. Does Ryan Tannehill in the hopes of 0:14:02.059 --> 0:14:02.979 the folks in Duvau? 0:14:03.099 --> 0:14:03.779 I don't think he does. 0:14:03.899 --> 0:14:05.539 You know what, he played well last week, well enough 0:14:05.539 --> 0:14:07.539 that he could scare the Jaguars. But I like the 0:14:07.619 --> 0:14:10.219 Jaguars to get to the playoffs, win this game twenty 0:14:10.259 --> 0:14:13.099 four to sixteen. I don't like that so much going 0:14:13.139 --> 0:14:15.659 into the game is based on how healthy the Jaguars 0:14:15.779 --> 0:14:16.459 passing game is. 0:14:16.579 --> 0:14:19.579 Christian Kirk is the dude. 0:14:20.259 --> 0:14:24.019 I think turt It took him getting hurt for everyone 0:14:24.059 --> 0:14:25.139 to realize how much. 0:14:25.019 --> 0:14:25.619 He's the dude. 0:14:25.899 --> 0:14:28.659 But when Trevor Lawrence needs to make a play, he 0:14:28.739 --> 0:14:30.979 starts with Kirk and then he goes. I think to 0:14:31.179 --> 0:14:33.499 Ingram is his next choice. And Kirk has been out 0:14:33.539 --> 0:14:36.819 for a handful of weeks. He's been aiming towards this game. 0:14:36.859 --> 0:14:41.019 He's questionable on the injury port, so's Trevor Lawrence probably 0:14:41.099 --> 0:14:44.619 gonna play so's Zay Jones a little more uncertain. But 0:14:44.699 --> 0:14:48.019 this is their passing game, and if they're all healthy, 0:14:48.259 --> 0:14:51.099 they can take advantage of a Titans defense that has 0:14:51.139 --> 0:14:53.099 given up a lot of big passes and I think 0:14:53.139 --> 0:14:54.059 they find a way. 0:14:54.299 --> 0:14:57.099 But if they're not, like, this feels a little dicey. 0:14:57.499 --> 0:15:00.819 It always feels dicey between two divisions, these ANFC South teams. 0:15:00.859 --> 0:15:02.579 It just feels like sometimes you can roll some dice 0:15:02.619 --> 0:15:05.059 and figure out what happens there. But I have Jacksonville 0:15:05.099 --> 0:15:07.619 winning this one twenty three to nineteen. 0:15:07.739 --> 0:15:08.379 In this matchup. 0:15:08.459 --> 0:15:11.179 I do want to talk about an area of positivity 0:15:11.219 --> 0:15:13.459 for the Titans, and that is their defensive front. If 0:15:13.499 --> 0:15:16.099 you're looking at what Harold Landry who went to Boston 0:15:16.139 --> 0:15:19.659 College and Denico Audrey had been able to do, it's 0:15:19.699 --> 0:15:22.979 been problematic for opposing quarterbacks. And if I'm looking at 0:15:23.019 --> 0:15:25.499 you talk about the health of potentially Trevor Lawrence, et cetera. 0:15:25.939 --> 0:15:28.059 One of the reasons why this is such a problem 0:15:28.139 --> 0:15:31.779 is the old line. There's some issues there. They got 0:15:31.779 --> 0:15:35.939 some issues there. So I don't know, if let's say, look, 0:15:35.939 --> 0:15:38.859 we're seeing questionable it's likely Trevor Lawrence will play. He 0:15:38.939 --> 0:15:41.019 kind of hated not being able to start last week. 0:15:41.019 --> 0:15:43.939 He's got a perfect attendance type of guy, and it 0:15:43.939 --> 0:15:44.259 didn't go. 0:15:44.339 --> 0:15:46.339 But if there is an upset, it's good. 0:15:46.379 --> 0:15:49.219 It's because these pass rushers are going to be terrorists 0:15:49.259 --> 0:15:49.699 to him. 0:15:49.819 --> 0:15:54.059 You feel like a perfect attendants type of definitely ninety No. 0:15:53.939 --> 0:15:56.419 Yeah, not if you're hobbling and people are chasing you. 0:15:56.499 --> 0:15:57.699 But everybody has that goal. 0:15:57.739 --> 0:16:00.659 It's like, I'm going to break the record, and you know, 0:16:00.979 --> 0:16:02.859 it's hard. It's hard to play every single game in 0:16:02.899 --> 0:16:05.219 the league where the injury rate is one hundred percent. 0:16:05.299 --> 0:16:08.219 But speaking of one hundred percent, and I chied all 0:16:08.299 --> 0:16:10.379 of the time win probability because I'm. 0:16:10.219 --> 0:16:11.739 Watching to go up and down. It's math. I don't 0:16:11.739 --> 0:16:12.299 know the numbers. 0:16:12.459 --> 0:16:17.139 Josh Allen has added one hundred percent of win probability 0:16:17.259 --> 0:16:20.499 over one hundred percent on his sacks this year per 0:16:20.579 --> 0:16:24.979 Next Gen Steps. It means because we always talk about, oh, 0:16:25.099 --> 0:16:27.859 this decision led to an increase of win probability. The 0:16:27.899 --> 0:16:30.899 best decision that the Jags make is having Josh Allen. 0:16:31.059 --> 0:16:34.019 It's good to sack the other team's quarterback, and on 0:16:34.099 --> 0:16:37.219 those he's generated the second most pressures in the NFL. 0:16:37.379 --> 0:16:40.179 The Titans offensive line really struggled. Cynthia's making the face 0:16:40.579 --> 0:16:44.299 because here's the thing, win probability. Eh, but when it 0:16:44.339 --> 0:16:48.579 confirms my priors, yay, I love it. Josh Allen puts 0:16:48.579 --> 0:16:50.699 the team on his back and the Jags win. Take 0:16:50.739 --> 0:16:52.019 the step for what you know? 0:16:52.139 --> 0:16:53.659 I want to know how you're making a stinky face. 0:16:53.859 --> 0:16:54.739 I got to look into this. 0:16:55.419 --> 0:16:56.859 Does that mean they would have only won half of 0:16:56.899 --> 0:16:58.539 as many games as they won this year? 0:16:58.859 --> 0:17:02.619