1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

2
00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

3
00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000
Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

4
00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

5
00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,080
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube right now.

6
00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:30,840
Speaker 2: With a blistering note, I want to make clear here

7
00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,720
Speaker 2: he was my market Economist of the Year two three

8
00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:39,440
Speaker 2: years ago for congenital optimism when everybody was gloomy. Neil

9
00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:44,560
Speaker 2: Dudda with a blistering note this morning, and Kevin Wash,

10
00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:48,600
Speaker 2: mister Dudda is economist Renaissance Macro. Neil come on the

11
00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:53,080
Speaker 2: first sentence, President Trump has picked everyone's least favorite candidate.

12
00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:58,720
Speaker 2: Discuss Was it something I said?

13
00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:03,000
Speaker 3: I don't think I stuttered that. You know, look, well

14
00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,200
Speaker 3: he is everyone's least favorite candidate. I mean, I mean

15
00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,240
Speaker 3: to me, look, the main criticism I have of Kevin

16
00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:15,720
Speaker 3: Walsh is lack of judgment. Okay, because the performance his

17
00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:20,119
Speaker 3: performance during the financial crisis was not a pretty particularly

18
00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:24,280
Speaker 3: good one, and I think you could say arguably that

19
00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:27,600
Speaker 3: it is disqualifying. I mean to be that concerned about

20
00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,119
Speaker 3: inflation at a time when the unemployment rate was rising

21
00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:35,000
Speaker 3: very rapidly, you know it kind of strange fradulity. So

22
00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:42,000
Speaker 3: and in the years since, everyone makes bad calls, Okay,

23
00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,480
Speaker 3: I mean I've been market treat economist for a while.

24
00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:46,559
Speaker 4: I've made bad calls.

25
00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,640
Speaker 3: Everyone makes bad calls. The issue is when you make

26
00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,320
Speaker 3: bad calls and you're always wrong in the same direction

27
00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,400
Speaker 3: that to me was open minded.

28
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:57,920
Speaker 2: This I can't just say enough how I agree with that.

29
00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:00,600
Speaker 2: Not for mister Walsh, folks, but part of the game

30
00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,560
Speaker 2: is to be wrong and learn from it. You call

31
00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 2: him a cookie cutter Republican coming off of Bush the younger,

32
00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,200
Speaker 2: the idea that he's a sweetheart of Wall Street, and

33
00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:16,320
Speaker 2: you say it's time you equate it here to say

34
00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:20,880
Speaker 2: worsh would make sense if Mitt Romney was president Donald

35
00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:26,560
Speaker 2: Trump is not. Mitt Romney discuss the card carrying Republican

36
00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:32,040
Speaker 2: dealing with President Trump on a meeting to meeting basis, Well, think.

37
00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:35,640
Speaker 3: About some of the I mean, President Trump, I think,

38
00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:39,840
Speaker 3: relative to the median Republican official, at least in my lifetime,

39
00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,280
Speaker 3: has much better monetary policy instincts. I mean, remember there

40
00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,440
Speaker 3: was a time when people like Paul Ryan and Mitt

41
00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,520
Speaker 3: Romney were talking about changing the Fed's mandate to just

42
00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:53,400
Speaker 3: purely a price stability one. It's people like Kevin Warsh

43
00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:58,480
Speaker 3: that love that, right. So you know, President Trump, by contrast,

44
00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,359
Speaker 3: in many cases, got the nomination by bucking a lot

45
00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:06,640
Speaker 3: of the traditional Republican orthodoxies right on trade, on immigration,

46
00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:08,680
Speaker 3: on social insurance.

47
00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:09,600
Speaker 2: On the FED.

48
00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,000
Speaker 3: And so I think that's what makes this so perplexing

49
00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,200
Speaker 3: for you know, the so called greatest jobs president that

50
00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:22,400
Speaker 3: God ever invented. He's picked someone that's, you know, frankly,

51
00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:24,680
Speaker 3: based on his record, a threat to working people.

52
00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:25,880
Speaker 2: Okay, So.

53
00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,120
Speaker 3: A member of the sort of MAGA movement, Kevin Warsh

54
00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,480
Speaker 3: is not okay. And that's why I say, I mean,

55
00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,120
Speaker 3: remember there's also he has a track record too, right,

56
00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:41,280
Speaker 3: I mean he's been he's critiqued previous administrations for not

57
00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:45,320
Speaker 3: pursuing free trade deals. Now he's being nominated by someone

58
00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:50,400
Speaker 3: that's trying to you know, rip up the sort of

59
00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:53,680
Speaker 3: global trading system and trying to kind of move it

60
00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:58,080
Speaker 3: towards the US's favor, America's favor. So that's why I say, like,

61
00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,040
Speaker 3: if you think that this is sort of a populist pick,

62
00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:05,440
Speaker 3: if you think this is uh, you know, someone that's

63
00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,640
Speaker 3: a member of the sort of president's base. I'm not

64
00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:09,520
Speaker 3: so sure about that.

65
00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,760
Speaker 5: Right, Hey, Neil, given this nomination, what do you think

66
00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:14,200
Speaker 5: FED Chairman J.

67
00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:15,280
Speaker 2: Powell will do.

68
00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:17,560
Speaker 4: Well?

69
00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:23,920
Speaker 3: As I say, I mean Kevin Worsh's newfound dubbishness. I mean,

70
00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:26,159
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, now that he's in the sort

71
00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,000
Speaker 3: of public interview process for this job, all of a

72
00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:30,680
Speaker 3: sudden he likes right cuts.

73
00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:32,800
Speaker 6: Okay, So that.

74
00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:37,320
Speaker 3: Suspicion, I think is going to peak the interest or

75
00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:39,520
Speaker 3: that that about face from Worsh is going to peak

76
00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:41,719
Speaker 3: the interest of not just your own Powell, but a

77
00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:43,760
Speaker 3: lot of the people around the table at the form C.

78
00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,000
Speaker 3: So if your Powell, I don't know, maybe you want

79
00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:50,279
Speaker 3: to stick around a little bit longer.

80
00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,400
Speaker 2: See what's interesting interesting? Good morning everyone, Neil dought it

81
00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:55,960
Speaker 2: with Jay Hebfield on deck. Claudia Sun coming up later.

82
00:04:56,240 --> 00:05:00,360
Speaker 2: This is a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Across a Erica.

83
00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,840
Speaker 2: Kevin Walsh point nominated, I should say, by the President

84
00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:07,039
Speaker 2: of the United States to replace your own Powell. Of course,

85
00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:10,880
Speaker 2: confirmation by banking is necessary, you know, I want to

86
00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:15,400
Speaker 2: polarize here the vector of Stephen Myron and Michael McKee

87
00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:19,080
Speaker 2: speaking with the governor Myron this afternoon, who's looking for

88
00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:23,920
Speaker 2: a hugely accommodative fed with the natural restrictiveness of Kevin

89
00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,400
Speaker 2: at Walsh. I mean, basically, Myron and worsh are polar

90
00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:32,680
Speaker 2: opposites that I can see in terms of tone discuss that.

91
00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:39,440
Speaker 2: Does a president understand this is not a Myron replacement? Yeah,

92
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:40,240
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure.

93
00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:43,240
Speaker 3: I mean I think look, I mean, the president is

94
00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:45,880
Speaker 3: trying to find someone that kind of that sort of

95
00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:49,600
Speaker 3: believes in this notion of a golden age, you know,

96
00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:51,760
Speaker 3: of strong productivity.

97
00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:51,880
Speaker 2: Growth.

98
00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:59,120
Speaker 3: Lower nehru, I guess, and maybe he's found his person in,

99
00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:04,640
Speaker 3: you know, maybe he's found his person in in Kevin Warsh.

100
00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:09,560
Speaker 3: You know, Steve Myron has been making similar arguments. But again,

101
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:11,520
Speaker 3: I mean look at the you know, look Tom, I

102
00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:15,839
Speaker 3: mean Myron. Has Byron been successful and swaying the committee

103
00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:16,640
Speaker 3: to his point of view?

104
00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:20,320
Speaker 2: Yeah? This kid comes out of Albany, he ends up

105
00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:24,159
Speaker 2: at Stanford under the guys of Michael Boskin and John Taylor.

106
00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,240
Speaker 2: He's got a shingle out Neil Dudd at the Hoover Institution.

107
00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:33,400
Speaker 2: This screams to me restrictive GOP economics. Am I wrong

108
00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:36,360
Speaker 2: on that? Jay, Yeah, Fields over your nodding, you know,

109
00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:37,359
Speaker 2: am I wrong on that?

110
00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:37,800
Speaker 5: Nice?

111
00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:39,640
Speaker 3: I mean, look, look, I mean this is someone that

112
00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:45,480
Speaker 3: he clearly overweights the inflation side of the Fed's mandate

113
00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:50,560
Speaker 3: relative to employment. Okay, I mean I don't. I don't

114
00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,320
Speaker 3: think that that's a pretty particularly controversial thing to say.

115
00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:55,240
Speaker 3: One thing I would say, though, is that you've heard

116
00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,880
Speaker 3: a lot of folks in the administration talk about how

117
00:06:57,880 --> 00:06:59,960
Speaker 3: they want the new FED chairman to kind of pull

118
00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,920
Speaker 3: and Alan Greenspan right, And so the idea here is

119
00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:07,680
Speaker 3: that in the nineties time, as you know, Alan Greenspan

120
00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,120
Speaker 3: resisted the temptation to raise interest rates in the mid

121
00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:15,960
Speaker 3: nineties because you know, productivity was strong and you know,

122
00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:20,920
Speaker 3: inflation was was slowing right now, if you actually go

123
00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,400
Speaker 3: back at the time, I mean that was coming off

124
00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,440
Speaker 3: of a period where inflation had already been slong. So

125
00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,440
Speaker 3: that was sort of the opportunistic disinflationary years, right.

126
00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:30,400
Speaker 2: And if you look at that.

127
00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:34,000
Speaker 3: Time during the nineties, what was green Span really doing.

128
00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,520
Speaker 3: He was really just following a tailor rule. So the

129
00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:41,560
Speaker 3: reason why they didn't hike in the mid nineties is

130
00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:43,720
Speaker 3: because the data were more or less telling them not

131
00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:45,640
Speaker 3: to hike in the mid nineties. I mean, yes, it

132
00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:47,800
Speaker 3: is true the unemployment or it was declining, but inflation

133
00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:51,800
Speaker 3: was also rapidly fallen. And the combination of those two

134
00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:57,120
Speaker 3: things is why interest rates didn't go up the policy

135
00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,920
Speaker 3: rate that is. But you know, rarely is it meant.

136
00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,360
Speaker 3: And you know, when you talk about pull at green Span,

137
00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,320
Speaker 3: look think about what happened in the late nineties. There

138
00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:09,280
Speaker 3: was an aggressive hiking cycle about a year after the

139
00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:14,800
Speaker 3: LTM LTCM blow up. And why was that happening. That

140
00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,640
Speaker 3: was happening because the labor markets were red hot, right,

141
00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,520
Speaker 3: So again I mean we were having it maybe a

142
00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,040
Speaker 3: golden age then too, right, I mean strong activity growth.

143
00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:29,080
Speaker 3: But because the labor markets were on fire, Alan Greenspan

144
00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:33,439
Speaker 3: rapidly increased interest rates. So this notion of like pulling

145
00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,520
Speaker 3: Alan Greenspan, I think it's a bit of a it's

146
00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:37,960
Speaker 3: a bit of a choose your own adventure.

147
00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, Neil, how.

148
00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:43,880
Speaker 5: Controversial, if at all? Do you think this confirmation process

149
00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:47,319
Speaker 5: will be for mister Warsh.

150
00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:48,640
Speaker 6: I mean, you know, it's hard to know.

151
00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,320
Speaker 3: I mean, I think there's obviously a lot of things

152
00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:53,880
Speaker 3: going on in the background, right, I mean, Senator Tillis

153
00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,920
Speaker 3: has basically said that he'd slow down the nomination process

154
00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:00,520
Speaker 3: so long as this this investigation into the head and

155
00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,440
Speaker 3: you know, Jerome Powell remains open. We'll see if he

156
00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,160
Speaker 3: means that, but that could presumably slow the process down

157
00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,600
Speaker 3: a little bit. But as you know, guys, I mean

158
00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:15,559
Speaker 3: these these this role has become less sort of bipartisan,

159
00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:20,959
Speaker 3: right Like in my career it was sort of every

160
00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,800
Speaker 3: you know, every every person that's been up the Jet

161
00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,480
Speaker 3: Yankee has had a thinner and thinner margin in the

162
00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:27,800
Speaker 3: Senate when they've gotten confirmed.

163
00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:29,199
Speaker 2: You know, I got to get the Jay Hatfield. But

164
00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:31,040
Speaker 2: let me frame this out. We're gonna go to Hatfield.

165
00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna ask them the same questions, folks, Neil dot

166
00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:37,479
Speaker 2: right now. And you've been phenomenal about the labor fragility

167
00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:41,520
Speaker 2: of America. What is your real GDP forward the chairman

168
00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:45,160
Speaker 2: worship is going to deal with and the inflation overlay

169
00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:49,040
Speaker 2: that's gonna upset him to get the nominal GDP. How

170
00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,160
Speaker 2: do you frame that out through the rest of the year.

171
00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:55,280
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, for me, Tom, you know, I have

172
00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:58,040
Speaker 3: a very much a state of labor market driven view,

173
00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:03,480
Speaker 3: and you know, aggregate hours are barely rising and wage

174
00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,280
Speaker 3: growth is slowing, so you know, I think we're basically

175
00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:10,000
Speaker 3: in on track for you know, essentially a four percent

176
00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,920
Speaker 3: nomenal growth environment, maybe even a little bit lower than that.

177
00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:14,679
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at wages and salaries over

178
00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:18,040
Speaker 3: the last couple of quarters. Quite so, really you have

179
00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:19,800
Speaker 3: to you have to tell a tale for why the

180
00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:23,400
Speaker 3: labor markets are going to strengthen. And it's hard to

181
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,880
Speaker 3: do that right now because you look at what consumers

182
00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:27,120
Speaker 3: are saying about the jobs market.

183
00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:29,160
Speaker 2: Okay, We've got to leave it there, folks, and I'm

184
00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,840
Speaker 2: going to not mince words. We protect the copyright of

185
00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,280
Speaker 2: all of our guests. This morning. Neil Dotta with a

186
00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:38,760
Speaker 2: fiery note out at Renaissance Macro. But bonus Neil Dutta

187
00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:42,160
Speaker 2: out on LinkedIn and Twitter. Look for mister Dotta particularly

188
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,800
Speaker 2: on LinkedIn today with fiery thoughts his note, as you mentioned,

189
00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:48,640
Speaker 2: Paul is just really on fire. Neil Dotta, Thank you

190
00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:54,040
Speaker 2: so much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming

191
00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:55,120
Speaker 2: up after this.

192
00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

193
00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,160
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

194
00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:12,920
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or

195
00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:14,560
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

196
00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,080
Speaker 2: Chris Waller goes to the heart of the matter, which

197
00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,800
Speaker 2: Claudia some has lived, which is the jargon of their

198
00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:26,559
Speaker 2: world outreach meetings. I can't emphasize enough how hard our

199
00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:30,560
Speaker 2: public officials work. They go to every rotary breakfast yep.

200
00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,600
Speaker 2: I can't say enough, folks, how they're on the road

201
00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:36,960
Speaker 2: and not in the office with their Bloomberg terminal. Claudia

202
00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:41,280
Speaker 2: Some Governor. Waller says, there are multiple outreach meetings of

203
00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:45,720
Speaker 2: planned layoffs, and I'm going to editorialize firings. Do you

204
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:50,840
Speaker 2: see that trend? Doctor, some of layoffs like Amazon like ups.

205
00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:56,080
Speaker 7: So we have certainly seen layoff announcements pick up that

206
00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,560
Speaker 7: this is not new right. We saw several of them

207
00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:02,120
Speaker 7: last year, and say theer announcements at this point, we

208
00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:08,600
Speaker 7: haven't seen them translate into jobless claims, broader measures, aggregate

209
00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:11,120
Speaker 7: measures of layoff. So I think there's every reason to

210
00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,360
Speaker 7: be concerned about the labor market. There's some signs of stabilization.

211
00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,480
Speaker 7: But I think Waller is appropriate to point out when

212
00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:18,680
Speaker 7: are not out of the woods yet.

213
00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:22,439
Speaker 2: Stanford Economics, everybody's got a different flavor associated with the

214
00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:27,440
Speaker 2: Hoover institution. What kind of inflation a hawk? What kind

215
00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:33,240
Speaker 2: of economist or lawyer comfortable with a restrictive policy? Is

216
00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:40,480
Speaker 2: Kevin Worsh? What, Claudius sam flavor is he? So?

217
00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:45,040
Speaker 7: I mean I was at the FED when Kevin Worsh

218
00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:48,479
Speaker 7: was a governor. I've watched him in action as a policymaker.

219
00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,280
Speaker 7: I've certainly followed his comments since then. I mean there's

220
00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:53,679
Speaker 7: a lot about his track record and his recent comments

221
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,000
Speaker 7: about what we see in the economy and what's appropriate

222
00:12:56,080 --> 00:13:00,160
Speaker 7: for interest rates. All that said, I think the conversation

223
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,040
Speaker 7: about Kevin Warsh and again today he got the nomination.

224
00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:06,560
Speaker 7: He's not the FED chair yet, he needs to go

225
00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,920
Speaker 7: before the Senate and I think the hearing, his confirmation hearing,

226
00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,920
Speaker 7: should be a pretty difficult one because right now, the

227
00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,320
Speaker 7: big conversation is about the independence of the FED. Will

228
00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,679
Speaker 7: it be free from political influence and setting interest rates?

229
00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:24,240
Speaker 7: And there are some comments from Kevin Worsh. I think

230
00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,280
Speaker 7: he needs to be asked about and that goes before

231
00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:27,800
Speaker 7: all his views on the economy.

232
00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:32,360
Speaker 5: So, Claudia, what do you think the FED should be

233
00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,200
Speaker 5: thinking about right now? Again, it's got that dual mandate here,

234
00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,840
Speaker 5: and we're getting more and more data.

235
00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:38,839
Speaker 4: As we speak here.

236
00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:40,920
Speaker 5: What do you think the focus should be or is

237
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:41,840
Speaker 5: for the FED right now?

238
00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,920
Speaker 7: Well, the Fed, the Fed's focus should be its dual mandate.

239
00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:51,600
Speaker 7: It should be about maintaining maximum employment and getting inflation

240
00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,240
Speaker 7: back to the two percent target using the tools that

241
00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,079
Speaker 7: it has. I mean, this is where you know, the

242
00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,120
Speaker 7: unemployment rate is below four and a half percent, the

243
00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:03,840
Speaker 7: inflation rate is around three percent, much lower than it was,

244
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,560
Speaker 7: you know, just a few years ago. But you know

245
00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,280
Speaker 7: it's not it's not all the way back to target.

246
00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:12,439
Speaker 7: So I think there, you know, their job is not done.

247
00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:15,719
Speaker 7: But I don't see this as a moment where we

248
00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,600
Speaker 7: need to have, as Kevin worsh has talked about, a

249
00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,720
Speaker 7: regime change, come in and knock heads right there. There's

250
00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,440
Speaker 7: work to be done the like. There needs to be

251
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,880
Speaker 7: a continuity, a continued focus on the two sides of

252
00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 7: the mandate and and if we have a disruption of that,

253
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,200
Speaker 7: that could be you know, really problematic in general.

254
00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:37,360
Speaker 2: Paul, was that, Claudia, sam shade?

255
00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,840
Speaker 8: Is that maybe a little bit shade there, Claudia, how

256
00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,960
Speaker 8: do you think mister Walsh will work with, interact with,

257
00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,000
Speaker 8: deal with the other members of the FED here.

258
00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:54,920
Speaker 7: What if he is confirmed, he's the public comments that

259
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,600
Speaker 7: he's made in recent months suggest that he's going to

260
00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,680
Speaker 7: come in on a pretty combative footing. I mean he's

261
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,600
Speaker 7: used words like knock some heads. He's been very critical

262
00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,120
Speaker 7: of the FED. I mean, he went so far as

263
00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,200
Speaker 7: to accuse the FED of its rate cuts in twenty

264
00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:12,600
Speaker 7: twenty four as the unemployment rate was rising, that that

265
00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,920
Speaker 7: was political, right, That's a really serious accusation to make.

266
00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,040
Speaker 7: The FED was reacting to a labor market that looked

267
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,000
Speaker 7: like it might be unraveling. So I think he's going

268
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,440
Speaker 7: to come in. You know, the FED works by consensus.

269
00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:28,040
Speaker 7: He's by his own remarks. I think he's going to

270
00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:31,480
Speaker 7: have a tough time building consensus, but he is capable

271
00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,560
Speaker 7: of doing that. It's just it's a it's going to

272
00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,640
Speaker 7: be a could be a rocky transition.

273
00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:37,840
Speaker 2: Claudia sam with us. We're thrilled to have her here

274
00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 2: in the nine o'clock or do we have Paul yet

275
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,120
Speaker 2: when we're going to get a press conference? I have

276
00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:42,720
Speaker 2: not seen for the President of the United States, we

277
00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,760
Speaker 2: don't have it yet. But again, for those joining a

278
00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:50,000
Speaker 2: nominee as chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Kevin Walsh.

279
00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,680
Speaker 2: This morning, we've heard from Christopher Waller and his descent.

280
00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:56,160
Speaker 2: I'm sure we'll hear from others through the day. I

281
00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:58,800
Speaker 2: want to emphasize here and again, folks, this comes down

282
00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:04,920
Speaker 2: to the pedigree. Claudia Sam Michigan, PhD. Absolutely definitive and

283
00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:10,480
Speaker 2: trying to understand the court to the corter gyrations of recession,

284
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,040
Speaker 2: or Richard Clareda, the vice chairman, and all of his

285
00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:18,280
Speaker 2: work at Columbia where he literally herded cats at Columbia

286
00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,960
Speaker 2: for years, and his work with a strange thing called

287
00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:27,760
Speaker 2: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory. Doctor some lawyer Powell. I

288
00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:29,800
Speaker 2: guess we really didn't know what he was going to

289
00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:33,120
Speaker 2: do other than he was a finance guy. What was

290
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:36,760
Speaker 2: the song last summer looking for a finance guy? Six five?

291
00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,880
Speaker 2: He was blue eyed in six' Five, Claudiusam do you

292
00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:43,520
Speaker 2: have any real understanding Of Attorney worsh's.

293
00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:52,280
Speaker 7: Economics worsh has said in interviews in recent. Months last,

294
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:56,320
Speaker 7: year he's very critical of the models that THE fed,

295
00:16:56,440 --> 00:17:01,160
Speaker 7: uses has called them. Outdated has you, know really push

296
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,240
Speaker 7: the idea that we need a new? THINKING i, mean

297
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:04,800
Speaker 7: one of the. Things you, Know powell came in he

298
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:08,680
Speaker 7: was not a diet in the world monetary policy. Theorist,

299
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,120
Speaker 7: yeah but he came in as a governor and then

300
00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:15,399
Speaker 7: continue on his chair as really listening to the experts around,

301
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:20,320
Speaker 7: him building his, understanding relying on their, expertise being very data.

302
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,200
Speaker 4: Driven you, know this.

303
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:24,760
Speaker 2: Is the heart of the. Matter, doctor some you worked

304
00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:28,080
Speaker 2: With warsh at THE. Fed do you suggest he will

305
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,159
Speaker 2: mimic the pattern Of Governor powell or is there going

306
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:34,639
Speaker 2: to be a different approach here where he does not

307
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 2: listen TO fed.

308
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:43,639
Speaker 7: PhDs i'm reacting to comments that he made just within

309
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,679
Speaker 7: the last. Year now you, know it's over a decade

310
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 7: ago when he was a. GOVERNOR i, think you, know

311
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:50,440
Speaker 7: we really need to listen to what he's been saying.

312
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:54,359
Speaker 7: Recently and he's been extremely critical of THE fed, models

313
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,879
Speaker 7: extremely critical of the staff and the CURRENT fed. Officials

314
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:02,160
Speaker 7: so you, KNOW i think he'll be different Than, powell

315
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,440
Speaker 7: and it could be different in a way that's disruptive

316
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:04,800
Speaker 7: and not.

317
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,080
Speaker 5: Productive, Claudia i'm looking at a note From Ben emmons

318
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:11,119
Speaker 5: At Highline Asset management in which he, says Quote worsh

319
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,159
Speaker 5: has made it explicitly clear in Is Hoover Institutional interview

320
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,320
Speaker 5: In may of twenty twenty, five that THE fed is

321
00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:20,159
Speaker 5: responsible for interest, rates administration is responsible for the, budget

322
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 5: and that this should be the basis for a NEW

323
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 5: Fed treasury. Accord how radical are out of consensus is.

324
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:31,720
Speaker 7: That it's extremely radical and out of. Consensus my biggest

325
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:33,719
Speaker 7: concern with Worsh AND i think this is something that

326
00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 7: he should be asked about by The. Senate, right let

327
00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:38,399
Speaker 7: him explain more his thinking on. IT i don't want to,

328
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 7: prejudge BUT i mean he's talked about that there needs

329
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:45,159
Speaker 7: to be a coordination use those, words a coordination between

330
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,760
Speaker 7: The White house And treasury on the balance. Sheet we

331
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,680
Speaker 7: need to remember The fed's balance sheet is an instrument

332
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,000
Speaker 7: of monetary. Policy THE fed has used it to influence

333
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:58,440
Speaker 7: long term interest. Rates short term political interests Of White

334
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,480
Speaker 7: house have no business in that. Conversation revisit a decade.

335
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,119
Speaker 2: AGO i MEAN i was at a you, KNOW i

336
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 2: read only important papers at, bars of, course so you,

337
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 2: know like fifteen years, AGO i met this Great greek

338
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:14,919
Speaker 2: restaurant In midtown reading forty eight pages Of. Geidner you

339
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,200
Speaker 2: know the world was blowing. Up or That claudia take

340
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 2: us back To Governor walsh and the basic idea that

341
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 2: he said we shouldn't Ease And i'm saying this in

342
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 2: a very general. STATEMENT i want you to tell, us

343
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 2: was he against accommodation in the heat of the battle

344
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 2: of the.

345
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 7: Crisis governor warsh participated in helping stabilize financial markets right

346
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,600
Speaker 7: in the global financial. Crisis he, was you, know worked

347
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 7: very closely With chairman Bernank, on you, know trying to

348
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,720
Speaker 7: figure out how to stabilize financial. Markets he worked on

349
00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:58,679
Speaker 7: the first you, know the first asset, purchases quantitative. Easing

350
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 7: as it moved moved into the unemployment rate is near

351
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 7: ten percent and the economy is really, Weakening warshwood got

352
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 7: very concerned about inflation and was very critical of The

353
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:15,359
Speaker 7: fed using asset purchases to support the. Economy it doesn't

354
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,920
Speaker 7: make any. Sense inflation was not a, problem then unemployment

355
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,199
Speaker 7: was the. Problem and in the many years after that

356
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 7: he hasn't revisited that and said it was a. Mistake

357
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 7: so that's WHERE i think his credibility on the labor

358
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 7: market is really, then.

359
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,679
Speaker 2: And, Paul i'm going to interject here the wonderful and

360
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 2: late and dearly Missed Charles plosser also was worried about,

361
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,639
Speaker 2: inflation and he came out and SAID i was. WRONG i,

362
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 2: mean this was a raging. Debate McKee lived this but

363
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 2: at the. Time but this is a really important, distinction

364
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 2: folks that maybe will be in the, Question, paul get

365
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:48,160
Speaker 2: one more in here with Doctor.

366
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:52,120
Speaker 5: Sam doctor some how contentious are? You are you anticipating

367
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 5: a contentious confirmation process for this? Nominee, YES i.

368
00:20:57,680 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 4: Am AND i think that's.

369
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,120
Speaker 7: APPROPRIATE i, mean given moment THE fed is, in these

370
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,920
Speaker 7: are not normal times and it's the sentence, job right

371
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,120
Speaker 7: like they are supposed to vet the, candidate make sure

372
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 7: they have the. Expertise and this time, around it is

373
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 7: so important that there are very clear lines drawn between

374
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 7: The White house and THE, fed and that THE fed

375
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 7: chair can really back up that they're going to continue

376
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 7: that independence because it matters for All. Americans it matters

377
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,440
Speaker 7: for financial markets and. Stability SO i think it should

378
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:29,919
Speaker 7: be a tough, hearing but that's that's the.

379
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 4: Way it should.

380
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 2: Be, claudia thank you so, much really really appreciate your

381
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 2: commitment to what we. Do we look forward to seeing

382
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 2: you jobs day if that's on the date. Calendar. Doctor

383
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 2: some driving The American Economic conversation in our public service

384
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,680
Speaker 2: to The fed as. Well stay with us more From

385
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,199
Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance coming up after.

386
00:21:51,280 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 1: This you're listening to the Bloom Work surveillance. Podcast catch

387
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,880
Speaker 1: Us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten Am Eastern

388
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,639
Speaker 1: listen On Apple karplay And Android otto with The Bloomberg business,

389
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,400
Speaker 1: app or watch us live on.

390
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 2: YouTube heavy dose of economics, today but far more a

391
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 2: heavy dose of what these momentous announcements mean to your

392
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 2: portfolios of currencies. Commodities did you sell all the gold?

393
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 4: YESTERDAY i don't, know, BOY i tried to ouload the.

394
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 2: Boat, yeah.

395
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 4: Exactly the kids are on the.

396
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 2: PHONE i couldn't get to the. Phone how about the

397
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 2: stock market with futures negative? Nineteen and of Course John

398
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 2: stolfus is just young enough to remember the panic Of

399
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 2: Alan greenspan taking over in nineteen eighty. Seven it was

400
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 2: a swall matter at the end of nineteen eighty. Seven

401
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 2: should you adapt an adjust to this or just steady

402
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 2: forward for the bullmarket Of John, Stulphus.

403
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 4: Well, TOM i think it's it's steady.

404
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 9: Forward it's a rock steady. Moment when we think about

405
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 9: the bullmarkt and what's supporting. That the big, CHANGE i

406
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 9: think is for short term, investors for the, traders for

407
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 9: the highly leveraged. Crowd some of these declines that we're

408
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 9: seeing in commodities and stocks this morning likely directly related

409
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 9: to unwinding of positions that were looking for a much

410
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 9: more aggressive stance in terms OF fed policy and lightening

411
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 9: up on what remains of the hike. Cycle AND i

412
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 9: think that's what it. Is you, KNOW i don't think

413
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 9: IT'S i don't think it's a dramatic.

414
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 4: Change if. Anything the one thing that.

415
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 9: Occurs to me right away as, well you, Know trump

416
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:39,880
Speaker 9: Nominated powell for the fan that he didn't like, him

417
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 9: or he may have trouble With warsh very soon after,

418
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 9: thereafter AND i think part of it may have been

419
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 9: a concern about weakness in the dollar that had been

420
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 9: expressed By bess and sometime in the last twenty four

421
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 9: or forty eight hours he was saying it was supportive

422
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 9: of a strong dollar after The president had infer that

423
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 9: he liked a week. Dollar and the, market the market

424
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 9: plays that stuff on a day to day. Basis that's

425
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 9: why we you, know we're not surprised when we go

426
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 9: from risk on to risk, off risk one to risk,

427
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 9: off and one day's, value one day's, growth one day's.

428
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 5: Mids and so we do have a little bit of

429
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 5: a lift here to the D X y index here this,

430
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 5: morning but still with a ninety six spot three, eight

431
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 5: much lower than what we've seen over the last several. Months,

432
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 5: john we're racing back in the middle of earning. Season

433
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 5: this is a, busy busy week four. Earnings what have

434
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 5: you seen From Corporate america so far and what do

435
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 5: you think the market needs to, see.

436
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 9: You, know related To Corporate, america what we've seen in

437
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,919
Speaker 9: THE s AND p five hundred earnings results is double

438
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 9: digit growth, again and double digit growth not only within

439
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 9: technology but also AS i, recall.

440
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 4: My screen just went out over here real. QUICK i

441
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 4: went to another.

442
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 9: Screen SO i can't look at THE ea, page BUT

443
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 9: i recall That energy it was double digit earnings on

444
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 9: THE ea, page AND i.

445
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 4: Think materials was as.

446
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 9: Well so what you're looking app is really the process

447
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 9: evidence of an economy that shows sustainable, growth likely with

448
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 9: the monetary policy that we've, had even if it is

449
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 9: at a slower pace than some would.

450
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,880
Speaker 2: Like this special edition Of Bloomberg surveillance across the arc

451
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 2: of the, morning Including Paul sweeny And Scarlett. Foo later

452
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: on this, morning the seismic announcement a NEW fed chairman

453
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: Sometime paul In, may is it it's like, there like

454
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 2: when it's, warmer, Exactly.

455
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 4: Hope we got to get a freezing In New York.

456
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 2: City before we can have a NEW fed. Chairman John

457
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 2: stulphus leads us off with his wonderful conviction in a

458
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 2: bull market that we've seen over the last number of

459
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 2: years At, Claudia sam and otherworthies will join us for

460
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 2: perspective on mister WORSCH i look at this And i'm.

461
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 2: Sorry as an equity, GUY i got to look at

462
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 2: the bond. Market that's WHAT i was doing last. Night

463
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 2: it's seven thirty and eight. Pm don't tell Missus. KEANE

464
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,640
Speaker 2: i was the thirty year bond right? Now eighty eight

465
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 2: percent to, Me John stolfus for, everyone housing, equities everything

466
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 2: that long rate is the Worsh litmus, paper, now AM i? Right?

467
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 4: Well you KNOW i quite, Honestly i'll have to, SAY

468
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 4: i don't.

469
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 9: Recall what was His litanus paper in the in the

470
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 9: LAST u if we get.

471
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 2: A, five if we get a five thirty One John

472
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: Paul sweeney's housing market falls.

473
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 9: Apart you, know AND i think the reality is is

474
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 9: that we've had good housing markets when we were a

475
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 9: double digit interest.

476
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 4: Rate so you, KNOW i can recall my first mortgage

477
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 4: was ten.

478
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 9: Percent one of my colleagues first mortgage was, sixteen and

479
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 9: his boss's first mortgage was twenty.

480
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 2: TWO i can't believe.

481
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 9: It and the only reason why mine was ten is

482
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 9: the bank wanted to charge me thirteen and my seller

483
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 9: fortunately wanted to move AND i was able to negotiate

484
00:26:53,160 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 9: this therapy took. It when you look at, it IT'S

485
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 9: i think there's less need for drama at this moment

486
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 9: in THE fed chair name that has come, up AND

487
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 9: i think that the market is in good stead right.

488
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 9: Now it's, notwithstanding you, know on a day to day, basis,

489
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 9: bears skeptics and nervous investors will take opportunity to trim

490
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 9: positions WITHOUT fomo.

491
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 4: If they can find a, catalyst and this is a

492
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 4: near term.

493
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 9: Catalyst BUT i really think most of this is probably

494
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 9: traders reducing positions that we're looking for a much more

495
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 9: aggressive policy for cutting at THE.

496
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 5: Fed, Hey Johnny, SAW i guess starting totish last, year

497
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 5: kind of a little bit of a rotation starting people

498
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 5: kind of maybe moving a little bit out of some

499
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 5: of the big tech names and trying to find some

500
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 5: value in other parts of the. Market is that something

501
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 5: that is going to continue to be a theme in twenty,

502
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 5: sixty you, Think, Paul.

503
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 4: We really think.

504
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 9: So we think this is the process after tech led

505
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 9: with great power out of That april eighth bottom last.

506
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 9: YEAR i think the play is here a broader participation

507
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 9: by other sectors because investors are looking for a way to.

508
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 9: Diversify one thing That i've, noticed it's going to be

509
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,679
Speaker 9: forty three years sometime Between may Or july THAT i

510
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 9: reported to my first job On Wall, street and WHEN

511
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 9: i look, BACK i remember the private investor at that

512
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:33,959
Speaker 9: time was usually a lot of it was cocktail party,

513
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 9: chatter you, know how well had they done in a particular.

514
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 9: Stock today people are investing because they know that Social,

515
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 9: security while it will still remain.

516
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 4: In, place will just not be anything as much of the.

517
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 9: Income they'll need during, retirement and they want to keep

518
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 9: a standard of. Living so past performance no guarantee of future.

519
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 9: Results we unerize the equities tend to be a good

520
00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 9: place to, be to weather, inflation to garner trends that

521
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 9: are important for.

522
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 2: Growth Johns dolphus with us with The vics up sticks

523
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 2: seventeen point nine zero The. Vicks if you're just joining,

524
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 2: us good morning Across. America you have a NEW fed.

525
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 2: Chairman The president of The United states Selects Kevin warrish

526
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 2: to be the NEXT fed. Chairman per The. Senate As paul,

527
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: mentioned that's a bit iffy right. Now we'll have to

528
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 2: see what The Senate banking will.

529
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 10: See how they do.

530
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 5: It, john what's some sectors here that that screen well

531
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 5: for you these? Days maybe, sectors maybe, factors what screens

532
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 5: well for you guys these?

533
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 9: Days we would have to say within the. Sectors we

534
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 9: continue to like information. Technology we don't think we're going

535
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 9: back to the abaccus or the avocas or the other slide.

536
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 9: Rule we think chips are an important part of. LIFE

537
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 9: ai is here to just stay and will morph in

538
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:52,479
Speaker 9: different ways going. Forward we also like communications services at

539
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 9: the traditional telephone, companies as well as about eighty percent social,

540
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 9: media the search engines and the. Streamers but we, like

541
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 9: we do like industrials and have liked them for a long.

542
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 2: Time financials when you're At, oppenheimer, folks and this is ancient,

543
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 2: history like back To volker Green, span When stulfus AND

544
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 2: i had. Hair there was a guy that we learned

545
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 2: the sell, side and we learned the discipline of byhold

546
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 2: cell from giants Like Myron. Picot we walk in the.

547
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 2: Shadow he was legendary at your. OpCo here's WHAT i observed.

548
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 2: Yesterday microsoft totally tanked for fourteen REASONS. Omg and the

549
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 2: entire cell side seventy one buys two, holes zero. Cells

550
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: John stolfiz ignored it lifted or, ADJUSTED i should, say

551
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 2: their target. Price and they're still looking for a blended

552
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 2: thirty percent. Pop And, microsoft can you explain to mere

553
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: mortals how aircraft carrier goes down ten percent and the

554
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 2: cell side goes long long.

555
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 9: ONE i would say that the adage of it's better

556
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 9: to have to be time in the market is more

557
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 9: important than timing the market for most. Investors the other

558
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 9: side of it, is you, know investors over the course

559
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 9: Of i'd tell, you over the.

560
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,959
Speaker 4: Last ten, years have grown accustomed to buy the dips

561
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 4: when they when they see it.

562
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 10: Happen.

563
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 4: Myths what appears to be a secular bull.

564
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 9: Market we often, say not so much by the, dips

565
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 9: but look for the babies that get thrown out with the,

566
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 9: Bathwater those perfectly good stocks the traders will hurl down

567
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 9: on the floor like a hot potata because there's a

568
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 9: piece of a quarterly report that doesn't quite meet up to.

569
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 5: Snuff SO i, MEAN i, mean that's a great story

570
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 5: of me BECAUSE i mean a lot of people talking

571
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 5: about valuation in the.

572
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 2: Market, boy it's.

573
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 5: Expensive but then the other side, is but earnings are,

574
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 5: Growing so how do you have that valuation discussion with your?

575
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 9: Ques, WELL i think the good thing is that earnings

576
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 9: are growing substantially so that those fat multiples may be

577
00:31:58,280 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 9: taken down a little.

578
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 2: Bit as we go.

579
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 9: Forward and we've seen over the last few, years you,

580
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 9: know WE'RE i think right now we're about it at

581
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 9: twenty two or twenty three, times but we've been even

582
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 9: higher than.

583
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 4: That but the earnings are helping us.

584
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 9: Out the other side of it is, is you, Know

585
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 9: yardini talks about the fact that there aren't enough companies

586
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 9: to go into The wilshire five thousand anymore because there's

587
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 9: only what thirty four hundred publicly traded due to private

588
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 9: equity consolidation AT m AND, a and, so what we'd

589
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 9: like to say is we think because of the seriousness

590
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 9: of people designing their portfolios with advisors or however they

591
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 9: may be working their portfolios in terms of retirement preserving

592
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 9: a standard of, living we do, think but they're really

593
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 9: looking at they're willing to pay more for each dollar

594
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 9: of earnings if the company shows that it's got good,

595
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 9: management good, product.

596
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 4: And then it has cash flow and profit or.

597
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 2: Kill one more question For John stolf's, folks is we

598
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 2: really all line up A Jay hatfield we've just learned

599
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 2: coming in who's absolutely exquisite to go From John stolf

600
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 2: as that's pretty. SURE i feel this what this is.

601
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 2: About we come to your commercial free this morning Across,

602
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: america The president announces a new. Chairman subject of banking,

603
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 2: Confirmation John, Sofis i'm going to ask this question fourteen times.

604
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 2: TODAY i start with. You the heart of the matter

605
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 2: Is Martin's wige would, say if a fed's, restrictive things.

606
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 2: Change can you envision a set of circumstances Where chairman

607
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 2: worsh would deliver a RESTRICTIVE fed to the stock.

608
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 9: Market, WELL i think the stickiness in inflation would mean

609
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 9: that we remain somewhat restrictive in the near term with

610
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 9: maybe only that generates ah NOMENAL.

611
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 2: Gdp that's pretty, snappy, right.

612
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 4: Yep, still that's the thing.

613
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 9: Is it depends on how tight is the. Tightening you,

614
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 9: KNOW i could remember very well when people were mourning

615
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 9: the loss of twelve percent yield on bonds AND i

616
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 9: was talking. Stocks stocks were going. Up, well interest rates

617
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 9: will remark high relative to. Today the nominal coupons were.

618
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 2: Phenomenal one of our listeners sent me a photo from

619
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 2: his studio with six gretches lined, up you, know the,

620
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,879
Speaker 2: jet the white, falcon the. Whole do you have six

621
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 2: gretches at?

622
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 4: Home you, KNOW i don't even own one? Gretch Is

623
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 4: nexus fixed? THIS I, gibson The defender, guy and the McCurdy.

624
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 9: Guy mccurty Is rick, mccurty the great contemporary jazz and

625
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 9: rock and roll.

626
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 2: Guitar, sorry sweetwater out In Fort. WAYNE i, mean come,

627
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 2: on get on the. PHONE i should you get a?

628
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 9: Gretch you, KNOW i think IF i got a, Gretch

629
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 9: i'd have mccurty. Rebuilt shake the neck a little bit.

630
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 2: More I'm American John stolphus honored to have you in

631
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 2: with these important announcers? Today he is legendary at. OPCOD

632
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 2: i really want to make note mister stulpus through thick and,

633
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:55,319
Speaker 2: thin Including april of last, year said participate in the,

634
00:34:55,400 --> 00:35:01,800
Speaker 2: market stay with. Us more From Bloomberg's surveillance coming up after.

635
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 1: This you're listening to The Bloomberg Surveillance. Podcast catch us

636
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from seven to ten Am Eastern listen

637
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: On applecarplay And Android auto with The Bloomberg business, app

638
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 1: or watch us live on.

639
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 2: YouTube just off the four top headlines of The Bloomberg

640
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 2: on the, terminal The president picks a reinvented wash to

641
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 2: lead The Federal. Reserve gold and silver plunge is wild,

642
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 2: swings rock metals, markets dollar fears are flaring As trump

643
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 2: rekindles the basement trade at a big. Take you're On.

644
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,239
Speaker 2: Unitlove i've never been in The unit. Clove, no it's

645
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:48,359
Speaker 2: not popular, demo but, yeah somebody, said you, KNOW i

646
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 2: was looking at what are the tights the? Lemon?

647
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, yes, NO i don't own any see, leggings you

648
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:56,839
Speaker 6: don't own?

649
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 2: Any why sized up two sizes and it still didn't

650
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 2: work as. Well we begin our coverage With Katie, kaminski

651
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 2: chief for research Strategist Alpha. Simplex, katie what are the

652
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 2: trends in the market right? Now the chairman worsh will.

653
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 10: Enjoy, well this is interesting because today's news has actually

654
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 10: reverted the Big i've been calling it the pedal to

655
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,319
Speaker 10: the metal, trade where everyone's thinking interest rates are going.

656
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 10: Lower so you've seen you, know big moves in the dollar.

657
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 10: Weakening you've seen massive moves and, metals and you've seen

658
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 10: equities up as. Well so today's announcement kind of has

659
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:35,760
Speaker 10: caused a reversion across those different.

660
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 6: Themes we'll see how long that. LASTS i. GUESS i

661
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 6: mean it's so far as just one day hens all.

662
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 5: Exactly, Yeah katie mentioned that the dollar, here, boy it

663
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 5: has been really weak this. Year we're got the D

664
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 5: X y index ninety six spot five, here a little

665
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 5: bit of strength, today but really weak this. Year what's

666
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 5: your thought there on currency?

667
00:36:55,920 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 10: Markets so we saw a pivot in a week dollar

668
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 10: trade starting to strengthen later last, year and we've really

669
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 10: seen it, accelerate especially around the commentary last week regarding you,

670
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 10: Know trump's view on THE us. DOLLAR i think the

671
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,800
Speaker 10: general view has been that the dollar is going to

672
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 10: be weaker if we're going to have lower. Rates but

673
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 10: there's just generally been pressure on the dollar for quite

674
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 10: some time, now and it has been close to its

675
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 10: bottom in terms of breaking out to a new, trend

676
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 10: but it hasn't hit a new trend.

677
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 6: Yet but it's. POSSIBLE i, mean it's definitely.

678
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 5: Possible, commodities, boy they have just been ripping to the.

679
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:37,320
Speaker 5: UPSIDE i think about the precious metals has just been, extraordinary, gold,

680
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 5: silver what's your view. There we're getting a little bit

681
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,760
Speaker 5: of a pullback, today but, boy they've been on a, tear.

682
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,879
Speaker 10: Yes AND i mean what's interesting to us is also

683
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 10: the inter day price action you, saw for, example, yesterday for,

684
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 10: examples you're, seeing you, know the market has been going

685
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:55,439
Speaker 10: up so, much but you're starting to see a little

686
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 10: bit of, hesitation a little bit of. PULLBACK i think

687
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 10: copper and base metals to also be a big story as, Well.

688
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 6: And you're seeing inter.

689
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,399
Speaker 10: Day moves that go from really good to really bad

690
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 10: to really. Good that suggests we might be at a.

691
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 10: Top but we'll.

692
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 2: See Kathery kominsky with us on a trend based analysis

693
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 2: with alpha s. Inplex, again the headline in the last

694
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 2: hour the red sticky across The. Bloomer The president of

695
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 2: The United states Nominates Kevin walsh to be the next

696
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,720
Speaker 2: chairman of The Federal Reserve, system and with a special

697
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 2: edition here of good conversation Across Kati kaminski's. Equities we're

698
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 2: doing to commodities Of Suki cooper here in a Bit

699
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 2: Ira jersey on. Bonds claudia sam scheduled to be with

700
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 2: us in the nine o'clock, Our. Katie i'm looking within

701
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 2: trend analysis at tip points or. Signals my easy signal

702
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,919
Speaker 2: on The bloomberg terminals a yield on the thirty year.

703
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 2: Bond IF i see a five percent and may be

704
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,879
Speaker 2: able to get my radar And President trump's radar. Up

705
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 2: what is your? Signal you're monitoring to see the dynamics

706
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 2: of the worsh.

707
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 10: Chairmanship so what's interesting is we have been following fixed

708
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 10: income pretty strongly in terms of we're seeing more short,

709
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 10: views which is suggesting somewhat of a.

710
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 6: STEEPENER i think most people.

711
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 10: Expected a much more dubvish pick for The, fed SO

712
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 10: i think that's baked in. Some in, general fixed income

713
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 10: has been the hardest asset class to trade for the

714
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 10: last year and a, half so we're still looking for

715
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 10: something to really break, out but it has been a

716
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 10: lot of back and forth in that asset.

717
00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 2: Class, well important headlines From washington right.

718
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 5: Now, yeah mister tillis suggesting saying that Mister walsh is

719
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,360
Speaker 5: a QUALIFIED fed, nominee but Mister tillos also saying On

720
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 5: Kevin walsh will oppose confirmation of ANY fed, pick so

721
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 5: kind of just confirming what we kind of already.

722
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 2: Know The senator speaking Of davos With Jonathan ferrell made

723
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 2: it real clear that he's just really not happy with

724
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 2: the judicial, process as we saw From Chairman pole as.

725
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 2: Well we continue With Katie kominsky At alpha Sim. PLEX i,

726
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 2: Look katie at the equity, markets and there's a point

727
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 2: where even AT mit they GO omg technology sand disk this,

728
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 2: morning alexis talking that. UP i, MEAN i, Mean Katie

729
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 2: kominsky is an Old Sun microsystems hard drive nailed to

730
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 2: the wall in her. Office, katie are you surprised by

731
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 2: the technical the technology juggernaut that we see right?

732
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 10: Now, WELL i, MEAN i think the market has been

733
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 10: kind of trying to process some of, these you, know

734
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 10: can we go higher, recently and that's what you. SEE i,

735
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 10: mean you've seen a little concern this week in the tech,

736
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 10: sector which is and we've actually seen more of a.

737
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 10: Rotation some places like em have been the big winner

738
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 10: because of the metal moves and other things and the week.

739
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 10: Dollar but you, know you have still seen technology showing incredible.

740
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:57,439
Speaker 10: Results SO i think even though there's a, rotation these

741
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,840
Speaker 10: signals still continue to be strong for t and there's Little,

742
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 10: well we'll have to see, better we'll have to see continued,

743
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:05,760
Speaker 10: earnings but we really still see that trend.

744
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 5: Continuing bond, market it looks like fixed income yields ARE

745
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 5: i don't, know they've they've moved a little, higher but

746
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 5: they still kind of seen within ranges. BOUND i guess

747
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 5: at this, point how do you think about?

748
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 10: That, WELL i think what we have seen with fixed

749
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 10: income is there hasn't been a lot of movement in

750
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:26,839
Speaker 10: fixed income over the last year and a, half and

751
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 10: it's been very difficult to trade because a lot of

752
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:32,879
Speaker 10: people are anticipating a steeper yield. Curve they've been worried

753
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 10: about inflation that hasn't Been and, now of course there's

754
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 10: been a lot of focus on the construction and set

755
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:41,880
Speaker 10: up how THE fed is going to look in the

756
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 10: next few. Months but we have to remember that THE

757
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:48,840
Speaker 10: us is still not done with its cutting, cycle whereas

758
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 10: other economies are pretty much at the, end especially if.

759
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:52,839
Speaker 6: You look At.

760
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:56,799
Speaker 10: Australia so we're kind of in that inflection point trying

761
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 10: to figure out what's the next move in fixed income

762
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 10: and it's been really hard to tell.

763
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 2: Where's your opportunity right?

764
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:06,479
Speaker 10: Now so the biggest themes we're, SEEING i, mean there's

765
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 10: huge moves in the, commodities short positions in. Cocoa you're

766
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 10: seeing long positions in, silver, platinum, ladium anything that's shiny

767
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 10: is really on the top. There but also THE us

768
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 10: dollar weakness trade has worked very well And australia is

769
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,880
Speaker 10: benefiting from some of these big moves in.

770
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 2: MEDALS i Got, JAMES i Got james mccannon. Deck But,

771
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 2: katie help me here with. Dollar let's go off the

772
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 2: VANILLA dxy right, now what's your scope?

773
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 5: Is?

774
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 2: Go paul mentioned ninety? Six are you going to give?

775
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 2: ME i got to make some, News. Katie can you

776
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 2: give me an eighty nine week dollar ON?

777
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 10: Dx, wife that's a big, One i'd, say you, KNOW

778
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 10: i think we've gone pretty far, already SO i, think you,

779
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 10: know if WE i would say it would take a

780
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:51,919
Speaker 10: lot to get to eighty. Nine but if we had

781
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 10: a very strong rate cut, move why not Right so

782
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 10: right Now i'd say low, probability but.

783
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 2: Possible, Okay, katie thank, you, thanks thank, you thank you so.

784
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:04,200
Speaker 2: Much Ket kominski with Alf simplex this. Morning there and

785
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 2: some of the trends that we.

786
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 1: See this is The Bloomberg surveillance, podcast available On, Apple,

787
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 1: spotify and anywhere else you get your. Podcasts listen live each,

788
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten Am eastern On bloomberg dot, com

789
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 1: The iHeartRadio, app Tune, in and The Bloomberg business. App

790
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: you can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

791
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:27,800
Speaker 1: and always on The bloomberg.

792
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:28,320
Speaker 4: Terminal