1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Daily we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Francine. 5 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 1: Let's bring in our guest Julia Cornado with us UH 6 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 1: to make us smarter as well. We've been talking through 7 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: the morning, Julia about the Fed. How important is the 8 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: vice chairman job? Dr el Arion was vetted to be 9 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 1: vice chairman. Is it like a big deal to people 10 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: like you? It can be a big deal. Yeah, I 11 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 1: think the who the vice chair is will very much 12 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: set the tone for the committee. Um, we know. And 13 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 1: and the other important position is of course the President 14 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 1: of the New York Fed, which we know that President 15 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: Dudley will be uh, you know, stepping down and handing 16 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:08,479 Speaker 1: over the reins to somebody in mid year next year. 17 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: So there's going to be a lot of change in 18 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 1: the key leadership positions. And yes, it does matter, matters 19 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 1: a lot in terms of how they will work with 20 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: Chairman Powell, uh and what their views will be on 21 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: monetary policy. Do you worry, Julie about communication that because 22 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: you have so many new kids on the blog. I'm 23 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: sure talk, you know, not too much or not enough. Sure. Well, look, 24 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:32,759 Speaker 1: the FED is still committed to transparency and I don't 25 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 1: expect that to change. But as you say, just the 26 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,479 Speaker 1: fact that the cast of characters is changing could make 27 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 1: it more of a cacophony and harder to sort through 28 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: the tea leaves. So I think it is going to 29 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 1: be you know, there was sort of a sigh of 30 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 1: relief when when Powell was announced as as the successor 31 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 1: to chair yelling Um on the idea that we we 32 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 1: would have continuity and policy and communication. I think that 33 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: is true for Powell himself, but for who will the 34 00:01:57,680 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: vice chair be? Who will be the New York Fed 35 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: press it in That will also be very important to 36 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 1: setting the tone, and we just don't know. We just 37 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: don't know who those people will be and what issues 38 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 1: they'll be confronting. As unfolds, Julie, does the yield curve 39 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: just keeps on getting flatter and flatter? H Yeah, And 40 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: I think you know that's the current issue on the table. 41 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,639 Speaker 1: We saw that in the minutes last week that uh, 42 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,799 Speaker 1: one of The potential drivers of this is persistently low 43 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:27,399 Speaker 1: inflation and what should the FED do about this? So far, 44 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: the choices have been easy because it's about getting off zero. 45 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: It's about getting away from you know, ultra accommodative polity 46 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 1: policy to something that's more neutral. But once you get there, 47 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: or once you get closer, how much attention should you pay? 48 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 1: How much weight should you put on persistently low inflation? 49 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: The FETE seems like they're starting to rethink this notion 50 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: that oh, this is all good, just transitory and going 51 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 1: to go away, and and and starting to prepare a 52 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 1: potential policy response if it sticks around. You really brought 53 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 1: up and Francine frankly brought up something that that was 54 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: a big it last week and I just in the 55 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: blur this morning, folks missed it, which is the flatter 56 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:08,239 Speaker 1: yield curve. Does anybody in the profession worry that we're 57 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: getting near the recession signal? I mean, you've got a 58 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 1: run rate g d P under two percent, right, I'm 59 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: gonna call that wicked gloomy, good morning, wicked gloomy, but 60 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: but realistic, realistic, not wicked gloomy. But we also are 61 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 1: getting towards a wicked flat yield curve or are we not? Ye? Know, 62 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: well we are? I mean and and uh, the ten 63 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 1: years seems very stuck below two fifty And if in 64 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: lesson until that changes, uh, then the FED is going 65 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: to be flattening out the yield curve even further as 66 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: they proceed with normalization. We've heard a few FOMC members 67 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: express concern about that. Now, I don't necessary I don't 68 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: necessarily subscribe to the yield curve being a signal of 69 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 1: impending doom. That might surprise you, since you think I'm 70 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: so gloomy, but I actually don't think it's necessarily sending 71 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: a recessionary signal so much as a signal of structurally 72 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: low inflation and lower growth globally, meaning that you know, 73 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 1: the ten year at two fifty two or close to 74 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: there is not that bad a deal, Julie, Are you 75 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: gloomy about inflation expectations? What do they do from here? 76 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 1: So that's I think the key challenge for the FED. 77 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: I think if you look at all measures, there is 78 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: evidence of a break lower somewhere around. We just got 79 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:29,839 Speaker 1: settled into lower expectations, whether it's survey market um or 80 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: or forecasters everybody sort of shifted down to a new paradigm. 81 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 1: It's been stable since then. These measures, UH, and the 82 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: Fed's challenges to keep them where they are and keep 83 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: core inflation where it is and not lose further ground, 84 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,359 Speaker 1: because that is I think the key for them and 85 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: the challenge for the next downturn. Can you keep inflation 86 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: and inflation expectations anchored if we get hit by another 87 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: recessionary shock, Julie, if we get the tax cuts where 88 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 1: the tax cut posal plan, does that help with inflation expectations? 89 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: It probably does. I mean, it probably will give a 90 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 1: near term push to growth at least for a while, 91 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: and that will probably you know, since we are at 92 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: full employment, that will only pressure the labor market further 93 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,359 Speaker 1: and potentially bring forward some more wage growth. So it 94 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 1: is inflationary in that sense, and the Fed UH may 95 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: want to accommodate it to some agree to to get 96 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: that inflation higher. Uh. There of course weighing all of 97 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 1: this against concerns about market bubbles and and financial instability concerns. 98 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: But um, but yeah, I think at the margin that 99 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:42,159 Speaker 1: it helps probably inflation and inflation expectations more than it 100 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: does growth itself. Yes, So how do you get that 101 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: three percent growth that that we know the administration wants 102 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: look sustained three percent growth would require, given you know 103 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 1: the building blocks of growth, our population growth and productivity. 104 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: I am relatively optimistic that will see some better productivity 105 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 1: numbers after a very very lethargic period. But we're looking 106 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 1: at population growth that's projected to be about half a 107 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: percent a year, and that's assuming no reduction in immigration. 108 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: If we get a reduction in immigration, it will be 109 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: even lower. So what are you looking at? Three percent 110 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: productivity growth? That just doesn't seem realistic under any kind 111 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: of investment boom that we might imagine. Is this eurosclerosis 112 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: by any other name? It is a global phenomenon. You know, 113 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 1: this is a population growth is slowing, populations are aging. Um, 114 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: there is some tie between that and productivity. There's been 115 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: sort of a mystery as to why all of this 116 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: technological change has shown up in productivity numbers. But if 117 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:47,159 Speaker 1: you actually one of the implications could be that real 118 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: growth is higher, but inflation is actually even lower than 119 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 1: we're currently measuring, and so that's an even bigger problem. 120 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 1: The nominee speaks this week, what will you listen for 121 00:06:56,760 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 1: from future Chairman Powell. I think that uh. I think 122 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: the current Governor Powell will keep it very close to 123 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: the vest I think he's uh, he's got one of 124 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 1: the best poker faces on the f O m C 125 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: for sure. Always worth so much money. I saw a 126 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 1: beautiful chart. I can't remember who bother me, not at all. 127 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: Do we need a fed chairman that you know? It 128 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: was like Trump has got more money than God. Does 129 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: it make a difference. No, I don't think it really 130 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 1: makes a difference. Um, I think I think what I 131 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:29,559 Speaker 1: am happy about is that Governor Powell has a healthy 132 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: respect for the institution, has a deep understanding of the process. Uh. 133 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: And and and he's committed. I think he's committed to 134 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: getting the job done right and not playing with matches. Julia, 135 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: thank you so much, Julia Cortonada. She brought in leftover 136 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: Turkey which is just killer as well. Macro policy personpectives 137 00:07:48,480 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 1: as well. This is a joy with us now the 138 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: president First Data Corporation, Guysarillo with us as well, First 139 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 1: Data of course thousand large out of New York and 140 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: and and Guy, I want to go back to your 141 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: storied career, it Chase. You were chief information officer, and 142 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: you are widely accredited with hurting the cats into a 143 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: room and creating the retail visibility of Chase. What was 144 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: the first meeting like where you took Chase from an 145 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: also ran to the retail juggernaut. It was when you 146 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 1: left for First Data. You know, it was a great 147 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 1: team there and Jamie led a great company and we 148 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 1: decided very early on in my time there that we 149 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 1: were going to be a digital leader. And at that point, uh, 150 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: we didn't really have the branches fully digital. We didn't 151 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: have a t M S fully digital, and we didn't 152 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: have you know, a website, didn't while we had a website, 153 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 1: but it was it wasn't what you would want it 154 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 1: to be. And I think from that day in two 155 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,439 Speaker 1: thousand and seven when I started to the time I 156 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: left in two thousand and thirteen, the focus was really 157 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 1: to be digital everything and to iterate, iterate, iterate. And 158 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: I see that now at First Data you've got the 159 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 1: Clover system in that to to iterate, what do you 160 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 1: iterated into? Are you iterating into charge cards being dead? 161 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,439 Speaker 1: You know? I think charge cards people will use a 162 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: variety of formats as a combination of generational activity as 163 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:40,079 Speaker 1: well as just ease of use. So I think you're 164 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 1: gonna see people tapping terminals, You're going to see people 165 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 1: who are swiping cards. They're gonna be you know, transacting 166 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:48,199 Speaker 1: on their phones. It's pretty it's pretty natural at this 167 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: I got the new toy, got it like three days 168 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: ago as well. Is Tim Cook's no wonder child, your 169 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 1: friend or enemy? You know, you never know at the 170 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 1: end of the day. But they are really a consumer 171 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: company and they are focused on ease of use in 172 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 1: every way possible. I think payments integrated with a phone 173 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: is a very is a very positive aspect. It's also 174 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,680 Speaker 1: a safer transaction in many different ways. And uh, and 175 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 1: it's hard to know in this payments business who is 176 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 1: your friend or not, but we are the collaborator, guys. 177 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: Sharrolla with this with first day at Francy Loquix and 178 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: London Francy. Yeah, guy, it was interesting too. You know 179 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: what comes afterwards when you look at the kind of 180 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: you know, the big takeaways. Um, and if you look 181 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: at Thanksgiving like Friday, so overall spending was up at 182 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 1: eleven point nine percent. Is it just because there's cheap 183 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: and it's too much stock or is it actually a 184 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 1: healthy consumer? No, I think it's healthy consumer. We saw 185 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: that ten days prior to Thanksgiving and Black Friday being 186 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: very robust. We've seen different things in different years, but 187 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: it took nothing away from the holiday weekend that that 188 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:52,760 Speaker 1: activity was robust across retailers, electronics and appliances in a 189 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 1: very very healthy way and carried forward right into the 190 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 1: holiday weekend where we saw uh, you know, nine percent 191 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: increase in total spend in retail eighteen percent and electronics 192 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 1: uh and you know, a very robust spending year over year, 193 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 1: no matter what category you looked at. Do you assume guy, 194 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: And I don't know if it's wrong, just human that 195 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: just e commerce. I think making up some twenty of 196 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving Black Friday will just continue so every year, if 197 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: I speak to in one or two years, it's going 198 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,959 Speaker 1: to be up thirty percent and then and then it 199 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: will finally reach that fifty percent mark. You know, I 200 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: don't know where it levels off, but it's definitely has 201 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: a lot of room to grow, a phenomena we saw 202 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,199 Speaker 1: all over the last couple of years. I've studied this 203 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 1: pretty deep in a detailed way. In two thousand and 204 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,559 Speaker 1: fifteen and two thousand and sixteen. We saw these bumps 205 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,200 Speaker 1: and e commerce traffic during the holiday season, but it 206 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 1: normalized when you went back into the first quarter. We 207 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 1: didn't see that in two thousand and seventeen. What we 208 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: saw that happened during the holiday season continued right through 209 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 1: two thousand and seventeen. So people are more comfortable now. 210 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: Your website always has the touchy feely little shop somewhere 211 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,079 Speaker 1: where first day of saving the day within transaction costs, 212 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 1: I get, I get the you know that's what you do. 213 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 1: How are you greeting Amazon when first data shows up 214 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: at Amazon? What do you in team Bezos talk about? 215 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 1: You know, there's a lot of there are a lot 216 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: of different opportunities. It's and it's not just Amazon. It 217 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: could be Ali Pay, Apple Pay, Google Pay. It doesn't 218 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 1: matter where we show up our ability to process transactions 219 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:17,599 Speaker 1: in a secure and safe way around the world. So 220 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:19,560 Speaker 1: what do you do for Bezos? Actually, what we do 221 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: for Bezos is process a lot of the Amazon transactions 222 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: that come through the website, for Amazon Prime and all that, 223 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:27,199 Speaker 1: for a range of Amazon. We're not the only we're 224 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: not the exclusive to Amazon, but we are a provider 225 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 1: of those services in a variety of different ways, and 226 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: you know, very successfully I hope to continues. Does Amazon 227 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: try to get market share at all costs? I I 228 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:41,959 Speaker 1: don't know whether they're actually making you know, losses and 229 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 1: some of the products that they sell just to make 230 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 1: sure that people get addicted to their service. You know 231 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 1: that we don't see. I think that Amazon is a 232 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:51,200 Speaker 1: is a great provider of products and services to uh, 233 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 1: you know, two people around the world. And I think 234 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 1: we see that again with a variety of our other 235 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 1: large scale retailers and providers. So you know, they're they're 236 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: a fierce come editor too many and you know, from 237 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 1: our perspective, we will work to continue to provide safe 238 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 1: commerce and transactions for Amazon and all the other companies 239 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: we do business with around the world. Who can survive Amazon. 240 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,319 Speaker 1: So Toma disclaimer, I'm definitely a better mother thanks to 241 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 1: Amazon because I pre buy everything it's waiting for me. 242 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 1: But there must be things that people are too shy 243 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,320 Speaker 1: to buy on Amazon. You know, It's hard to tell. 244 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 1: I you know, I don't look inside the Amazon baskets, 245 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: but I believe that people are just getting comfortable in general, 246 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: they order their food in advance and pick it up 247 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: in a line. They order their retail in advance and 248 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: have it shipped. As you know, it's a way of life. 249 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:34,559 Speaker 1: I mean, you and I are old enough. Francy's way 250 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: too young to remember this. Where you bought American Express 251 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 1: traveler checks and Carl Malden said, don't leave home without them. 252 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:43,679 Speaker 1: And you were a kid and your parents sent you 253 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 1: out with this little lot of paper. I mean that 254 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 1: was a transaction that disappeared. Is your world gonna disappear? 255 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 1: I mean, are you staying up night looking at the 256 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: College of New Jersey, Penance, You've got right on the bedroom. 257 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 1: Are you staring there, going, Oh, one day they're not 258 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: going to use the visa card of the master. No. 259 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 1: You know, we love commerce. It's whether it's Visa, Amex, MasterCard, Discover, 260 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: whether it's gift or EBT. We have one of the 261 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 1: largest gift businesses in the country, and digital gift cards 262 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:14,720 Speaker 1: are are very robust. Um in from a euro excuse me, Francine. 263 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: Those are exclusively used to purchase slime and slime materials. Caught. 264 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: You buy like kilos of slim kilos. You can buy Elmer's. 265 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: I wish I had the Elmer's Glue franchise for we 266 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 1: love commerce. I think we love commerce and all and 267 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 1: all formats. You'll take slime sales, not slime sales, but 268 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: we love commerce. I mean, we're within this is the 269 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: pressure to perform financially. What are you gonna do to 270 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 1: really jumps? I mean you've come out of the bottom 271 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 1: and all that and done better. But given a d 272 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 1: P and the challenges with Mr Ackerman and all that, 273 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: is there a pressure to goose the financials? You know. Look, 274 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 1: I think in every business you have this pressure. This 275 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: company is a huge transformation if you think about where 276 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: we came from with billion dollars of that significant losses 277 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 1: in the private equity space for a long time, one 278 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 1: of the largest I P O. Still since October two 279 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: thousand and fifteen, have transformed the company financially, growing the 280 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: top line, improving the bottom line, expanding margins. I mean, 281 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 1: we're going to continue to do what we have been doing. Fritzy, 282 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: we don't care, we just want Are you going to 283 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: create jobs in Manhaman? We're going to create jobs around 284 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: the country and around the world. Yeah, oh see how 285 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: he missed that? Did that? Frenzy? Where where guys, there 286 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 1: is it? You know? Is it back office? Is it? 287 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 1: What kind of jobs will you create? Are the quality jobs? 288 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: You know? I'm hoping that the cyber related profession is 289 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: a definitely an opportunity to create jobs. We are actually 290 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: helping all of our merchants do the same. I think operationally, 291 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 1: there are ways to continue to do things more and 292 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 1: more efficiently. So I think that you know, those are 293 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 1: those are opportunities to eliminate roles, while on the other side, 294 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: the front end of the house their opportunities to expand. 295 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: I had been three bad uber charges on my Chase 296 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 1: account this weekend. I was going to call Jamie Diamond 297 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 1: and complaint. Could you get it fixed for him? I 298 00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: think you should call Jamie, He'll help you. Call Mr Diamon. 299 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 1: Very good, Thank you so much. Guy Ciarello with us 300 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: with first day of Corp their president, moving the ship 301 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 1: forward and really interesting within all the bitcoin and cyber 302 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 1: currency is well to a great part of the Keene family. 303 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: Francine September nine, two thousand and six was one of 304 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: the darkest days in the history of mankind. This is 305 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: when Marshall Field and the name went away of a 306 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 1: building that was the fabric for part of my family. 307 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 1: We're on it to bring you on this cyber what 308 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 1: was it Cyber Wednesday, Cyber Monday. It reaches Monday branding, 309 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 1: Geared Storage, Gerald Storch, which was if you know its history, 310 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: Toys or Roast, Target and Hudson Bay and the rest 311 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 1: of it. Stop it. Did you ever walk around the 312 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:10,400 Speaker 1: Marshall Field store at night when the lights were out? 313 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 1: What a wonderful storage. You described the experience of the 314 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 1: third largest thing in the world. Amazing, amazing building on 315 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:22,400 Speaker 1: State Street in Chicago. There and we bought it when 316 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 1: I was at Target, and we set about to renovated extensively, 317 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 1: bring back the old heritage. We hung the largest American 318 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: flag in the world in the atrium because that's what 319 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: they used to do. Bring We brought back all the traditions. 320 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:41,120 Speaker 1: What a beautiful, beautiful old building and what an enormous place. 321 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: And talk about experience in retail, that was an experience 322 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 1: that that's a nostalgia GM and you know the the 323 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: just the Midwest retail, the Christmas Story, the comedy about 324 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 1: the department, that's a nostalgia. It's all gone. I'm on 325 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: my iPhone X buying something right now, do we need 326 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 1: your world of nostalgia anymore? Well, my world includes the 327 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 1: Internet and the Internet. It's a technology just like electricity, 328 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: and we all use electricity in our businesses. It isn't 329 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,920 Speaker 1: just the exclusive domain of the electric utility companies. And 330 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 1: so we're just at the very beginning of e commerce 331 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: and of the Internet. It's going to change dramatically. So 332 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: what we see is the traditional venerable bricks and mortar 333 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 1: companies are doing a pretty good job of starting to 334 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 1: bring the Internet into their businesses. Commerce is still done 335 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,159 Speaker 1: in the physical location. So what's gonna happen in the 336 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: future is every transaction will have an Internet component, Internet 337 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: enabled to one or the other, or you'll buy in line, 338 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:40,959 Speaker 1: pick it up in the store. But it doesn't mean 339 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: we don't need bricks and mortar locations. We just don't 340 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:47,200 Speaker 1: need as many of them as we have now. So Jerry, 341 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,120 Speaker 1: when you good morning first of all from London, more 342 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:52,159 Speaker 1: you say we we still need bricks and mortars. This 343 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: is what kind of like a showcase, you know. So 344 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 1: I went to a supermarket for like the first time 345 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 1: in like three years yesterday, um, and it was a 346 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,639 Speaker 1: lovely experience because everything I do is online. But do 347 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 1: I have time to go back? Probably not so, Jerry, 348 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 1: Is this when when people want to just, you know, 349 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 1: do something different with the family. Is it a kind 350 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 1: of show and tell? Or do you think people at 351 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 1: some point will be fed up of shopping online and 352 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 1: go back to bricks and mortars. Oh, I don't think 353 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 1: it's getting fed up. I believe the internet is is 354 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: revolutionary and it's transformational, but it's not transcendent. It doesn't 355 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 1: mean it has to replace everything. So it's not just 356 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 1: going to have a good time. It's also going to 357 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 1: try it on to make sure that it fits before 358 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 1: you buy it, so you don't have to go through 359 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: buying twelve different sizes and returning the ones that don't fit. 360 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 1: It's going to learn new things that you might not 361 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: think about unless you walked in there. It's going to 362 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: get a media gratification to have the product instantly able 363 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: to walk out with it, and don't forget it still 364 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: has superior economics to the online channel. This is what 365 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: people forget when you when you buy something online and 366 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: ship it to the home for home delivery, it's enormously 367 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 1: expensive and this is why most companies do not make 368 00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: money on the physical home delivery of goods that are 369 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:02,640 Speaker 1: ordered on the Internet. This is kind of the dirty 370 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,359 Speaker 1: little secret of the Internet right now. But Jerry fits luxury. 371 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: I mean, if you need a shop on you know 372 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 1: here Old Bond Street or New Bond Street or Oxford 373 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,119 Speaker 1: Street in the US on Park Avenue, it's going to 374 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: be more expensive than certainly getting a warehouse in New 375 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: Jersey where you can just keep the stuff and ship 376 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: it out. Yeah, but those luxury products are not going 377 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 1: to sell online in that fashion. They want you to 378 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 1: have the whole surround, have the high service, and you're 379 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 1: gonna want the service to If you're going to spend 380 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,159 Speaker 1: a lot of money for something that's high luxury, you 381 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: certainly want to know the person you're buying it from, 382 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: have that kind of service, have someone who knows you 383 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 1: who can help you pick it out. But the Internet 384 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:35,920 Speaker 1: is amazing, it's fantastic, and it will grow, but it 385 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: will be integrating everything. Okay, down the income statement and 386 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 1: now we're talking to Jerry Storg financial guy, which is 387 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 1: really what he's famous for. Mr Londgren down in the 388 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: Herald Squares making eleven twelve cents in the dollar he's 389 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 1: cleaning basis, his clock basis is lucky if he's making 390 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 1: nine sense, but as well, nobody cares since when is 391 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 1: your business based on this sales growth fiction of Amazon 392 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 1: versus valuing companies based on cash flow or something that 393 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 1: on the income. There's no doubt that that Jeff has 394 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 1: done an amazing job at Amazon, and people are betting 395 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,440 Speaker 1: on the future and what he's done, and so at 396 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 1: some point, though, everybody has to make money. Now he's 397 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 1: making a ton of money on the cloud. In other ways, 398 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,200 Speaker 1: it's helping to sort of cross subsidize what's going on 399 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: in retail. Eventually, though, the bricks and watar retails will 400 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 1: be smart. He'll be smart. You know, he bought Whole Foods, 401 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,080 Speaker 1: And you're gonna have these combined models of bricks and 402 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: mortar and the Internet that are economic to operate, both 403 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 1: for Amazon and for others. Is Huts is Hudson Bay's 404 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 1: company and the others. Are they going to eventually make 405 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: revenue growth? I mean at the top line. That's as 406 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 1: you just mentioned, that's the great differential. How do we 407 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 1: get back to nominal GDP growth in retail? You know, 408 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 1: retailers in general can grow and it will be a 409 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:59,639 Speaker 1: mixture of traditional bricks and mortar sales and online sales, 410 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: and it won't that we are in the Roman normal 411 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 1: numbered pages of the book. On the internet, it will 412 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 1: not look anything like it does today. There will be 413 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 1: so many different combinations and integrations of the Internet with 414 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 1: the stores that you will not recognize it. This notion 415 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 1: that the Internet is for home delivery will look as 416 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: antiquated as wearing a ruffled shirt. No wig does today. 417 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: Do you have a Hudson's bade brain blanket on a 418 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,920 Speaker 1: bed at home? Do you like you have like a 419 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: ginormous king size Jerry Storge badd and you've got like 420 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,399 Speaker 1: the green, the red, deal orange, the yellow and the 421 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:35,719 Speaker 1: black stripe. By my secret is that we don't use 422 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 1: a blanket. You don't use a blanket. But you know, 423 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: the the uh, the future is very bright for retailers 424 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 1: who make rapid change in this environment. And you see 425 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:50,919 Speaker 1: a lot of successful retailers, even those that are principally 426 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 1: bricks and mortar, who they're offering the right value property. 427 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 1: Someone like t J Max with a forty five billion 428 00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,840 Speaker 1: dollar market cap, it's worth more than the entire department 429 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 1: store sector combined Costco doing very very well. Is it 430 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:07,159 Speaker 1: on Canadian that the Hudson Bay blankets made in England. 431 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,160 Speaker 1: I don't know what that's about. Thank you so much. 432 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: We have to do this again. Don't be a stranger. 433 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 1: Jerry Storch with the Storch Advisors this morning on his 434 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 1: Hudson Bay on his martial fields. Thanks for listening to 435 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 436 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 437 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can 438 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio