Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at
Speaker 1: the top stories in the coming way from my Daybreak
Speaker 1: anchors all around the world, and just a hit on
Speaker 1: the program. How is retail holding up? Are consumers pulling back?
Speaker 1: John Tucker in New York. I'm Stephen Carlin London. But
Speaker 1: we're looking ahead to the results from the struggling German
Speaker 1: energy giants Uniper and Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. Low
Speaker 1: levels of inflation, record low interest rates and a better
Speaker 1: than expected economy. What are we talking about Indonesia? I'm
Speaker 1: Amy Morris in Washington. We're gauging the impact of the
Speaker 1: investigations in the President Trump's dealings on downballot races. That's
Speaker 1: all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg Elibam
Speaker 1: Free O, New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco,
Speaker 1: d AB, Digital Radio London, Sirius XM one nineteen and
Speaker 1: around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. Hi, everybody, I'm John Tucker, and
Speaker 1: let's start today's program with retail and Bloomberg's retail reporter
Speaker 1: Brandon Case joining us from Dallas. We have a bunch
Speaker 1: of retailers opening their books in the coming week home
Speaker 1: Dee Paul, Walmart, parent of t J Banks and Marshall's
Speaker 1: Target calls Macy's Ross Stars. So, before we get to
Speaker 1: some of the specifics, Brendan, how is the American consumer
Speaker 1: holding up? I think the after that is so so.
Speaker 1: What you've seen so far is you've seen pretty steady,
Speaker 1: even sometimes robust, overall spending. But if you break that down,
Speaker 1: what you're seeing is a consumer that is increasingly under
Speaker 1: a lot of stress. And what that is causing is
Speaker 1: a situation where people are being forced to spend a
Speaker 1: lot more on essentials, food, fuel, things like that, and
Speaker 1: that's leaving a lot less money left over for discretionary goods.
Speaker 1: UM and us emerged as a big problem for Walmart, Target,
Speaker 1: pretty much all retailers, UM and I think that with
Speaker 1: the earnings reports coming out the next week and and
Speaker 1: and also after that, we should get a lot more
Speaker 1: insight into how these companies think the consumer will hold
Speaker 1: up the rest of the year. We'll get more about
Speaker 1: the back to school shopping season and probably get there.
Speaker 1: They're kind of the retailer's first predictions about the holiday
Speaker 1: rush at the end of the year. We're already up
Speaker 1: to that. Yeah, we're already there. I mean, of course,
Speaker 1: for a lot of these retailers, they've been planning for
Speaker 1: that since February literally. Um, but it's it's it's it's
Speaker 1: increasingly upon us. You know, last year that holiday season
Speaker 1: started pretty early because of all the supply changes, ruptions,
Speaker 1: people who are out shopping, you know, earlier than usual. Um.
Speaker 1: And we'll see what happens this year. I think the
Speaker 1: question boils down to whether retail spending is going to
Speaker 1: end up being a lot weaker after two very strong
Speaker 1: years during the pandemic. Okay, Um, we're still buying stuff,
Speaker 1: but it's just the stuff that's lower margin. I mean,
Speaker 1: I have to buy groceries. I gotta eat, but maybe
Speaker 1: I'm not going to spend you buy a TV or
Speaker 1: something like that. Yeah, that's exactly right. So if you
Speaker 1: look at that through the prism of of Walmart Target,
Speaker 1: what that means is that people are spending a lot
Speaker 1: more on groceries, which those companies make less money off of. Um,
Speaker 1: they make more money from general merchandise sales, you know,
Speaker 1: like clothing, electronics, home goods, um. And they're selling a
Speaker 1: lot less of those more profitable items and a lot
Speaker 1: more of the low margin items. And so if you
Speaker 1: take a company like Walmart, they actually, you know, they're
Speaker 1: actually doing fine from a revenue perspective. They actually raised
Speaker 1: their revenue forecast a little bit less month. But since
Speaker 1: they're selling more of their less profitable you know stuff
Speaker 1: their their their groceries, UM, it's really hurting profit. And
Speaker 1: it's also causing them to mark down a lot of items,
Speaker 1: which further erode their profit margins. And that's not to
Speaker 1: say that they're cutting all prices. I think what they're
Speaker 1: doing is basically boosting the price any any place they can,
Speaker 1: but in some categories the sales just aren't there and
Speaker 1: so they're having to cut prices. Okay, Well that leads
Speaker 1: me to the next question, as far as the inventories.
Speaker 1: Are the inventories of these places bloated, yes, very much.
Speaker 1: So okay, so why wouldn't they automatically have to discount then? Right, Well,
Speaker 1: that's what they're doing to a certain extent. And the
Speaker 1: mystery is that we don't know exactly what their inventories
Speaker 1: are made up of. But if you imagine the inventories
Speaker 1: as being a little bit overweighted towards discretionary goods they
Speaker 1: thought they could sell earlier this year, that's what they're
Speaker 1: having to mark down more and more aggressively. And we're
Speaker 1: talking about clothing, We're talking about kitchen appliances, we're talking
Speaker 1: about patio furniture, all that stuff that people are stocking
Speaker 1: up on during the pandemic. You know, the retailers knew
Speaker 1: that spending was going to tail off on those categories,
Speaker 1: but what they misjudged is just how fast that would happen. Um.
Speaker 1: But what they're not doing is they're not discounting the
Speaker 1: central goods that people are increasingly, you know, using their
Speaker 1: paychecks to to to die. Do these places they have
Speaker 1: their own credit cards? And the reason I answered do they?
Speaker 1: Does that tell us much about how much debt is
Speaker 1: being racked up by their customers, whether those they're paying
Speaker 1: off those credit card balances? Yeah, a lot of them do.
Speaker 1: Targets got its own credit card. A lot of the
Speaker 1: department stores have their own credit cards, the Hume Gold stores, UM.
Speaker 1: And I think what you're see being there is that
Speaker 1: you know, spending um has been very strong, and savings
Speaker 1: had been going up a lot during the pandemic, in
Speaker 1: large part because of the government stimulus programs and also
Speaker 1: because people were not going out as much. I think
Speaker 1: what you're seeing now is that people are increasingly kind
Speaker 1: of blowing through those savings. They've got um less of
Speaker 1: a cushion, and you know, that's really starting to eat
Speaker 1: into what they're able to actually spend its stores and
Speaker 1: sort of causing this overhang on retail sales. Brendon will
Speaker 1: leave it there. Thanks very much for joining us. We
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Bloomberg's retail reporter, Brendan Case. And just ahead
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, look at Germany's Uniper and the
Speaker 1: Russian energy crunch on. John Tucker. This is Bloomberg. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead of the
Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm John
Speaker 1: Tucker in New York. Up leader in the program. Indonesia's
Speaker 1: economy has been homming along. Can it continue? But first,
Speaker 1: the German energy giant Uniper will report results that will
Speaker 1: be closely scrutinized this week. That firm has been at
Speaker 1: the center of Europe's energy crisis since it was forced
Speaker 1: to seek a government bail out last month. And for more,
Speaker 1: let's into London now and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
Speaker 1: anchor Stephen Carroll. Stephen thanks a lot. John. Uniper is
Speaker 1: Germany's biggest buyer of Russian gas and was pushed to
Speaker 1: the brink because Vladimir Putin squeeze supplies and retaliation for
Speaker 1: European sanctions against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Germany's economy Minister
Speaker 1: Robert Habeck has warned that Russia's gas squeeze posed the
Speaker 1: risk of a Lehman Brothers like contagion with universe failure
Speaker 1: potentially spilling over to the wider economy. So these are
Speaker 1: a set of results very keenly watched. For more, I'm
Speaker 1: joined by Bloomberg's Rachel Morrison, who leads our team of
Speaker 1: energy reporters here in London. Rachel, what exactly is it
Speaker 1: about these results that we're looking out for most importantly, Yes,
Speaker 1: you're right, it's going to be super interesting because a
Speaker 1: lot of what these results will cover will be the
Speaker 1: period before the government bailout. So Uniper has been quite
Speaker 1: upfront with updates to the market on how much money
Speaker 1: they were losing, so a lot of that was in
Speaker 1: the lead up to the bailout. But we expect to
Speaker 1: see a bit more on the losses they're making on
Speaker 1: having to buy gas to replace the gas and not
Speaker 1: getting from Russia and those contracts that you know they
Speaker 1: have to pass onto customers. So we'll see, you know,
Speaker 1: maybe an update on losses and really what their balance
Speaker 1: sheet is looking like. So we don't know how they
Speaker 1: will factor in the government bailout, but we'll get an
Speaker 1: idea of just how quickly they're burning through money, and
Speaker 1: it will be interesting to see how much of a
Speaker 1: problem the gas supply situation is still causing them. It's
Speaker 1: because this is a company that's at the point to end,
Speaker 1: if I can put it that way, of this crisis
Speaker 1: and the supply issues coming from Russian gas as well.
Speaker 1: We are seeing governments across Europe trying to address these
Speaker 1: issues with big state owned energy companies when they're dealing
Speaker 1: with different supply issues. Another case of that z d
Speaker 1: F and France, where the French government, which already owned
Speaker 1: the vast majority of that company, has now stepped in
Speaker 1: to try and buy more of it. Is this a
Speaker 1: big challenge facing governments in Europe to try and manage
Speaker 1: crises and energy giants. Yes, we're really seeing a time
Speaker 1: when energy companies are just too big to fail. So
Speaker 1: the chaos that would ensue from the downfall of one
Speaker 1: of these big companies. So on the kind of industrial side,
Speaker 1: these companies by wholesale gas and sell it to industry,
Speaker 1: and also they both have customer facing parts to the business,
Speaker 1: not just at home but in other countries too, and
Speaker 1: the disruption that that would cause if they were to
Speaker 1: fail just wouldn't be fathomable at this time. You know,
Speaker 1: in the past, perhaps another company could step in UM
Speaker 1: and so there wouldn't be the same kind of impetus
Speaker 1: from governments to bail out companies. But at the moment,
Speaker 1: the same pressures face most of the other companies and
Speaker 1: it would be difficult to find anyone else to step in,
Speaker 1: particularly with some of the bills we've seen that UM
Speaker 1: governments have picked up with the likes of Uniper and
Speaker 1: e d F. You know, that's not going to be
Speaker 1: something that another company can easily provide, which is really
Speaker 1: why it has to be government intervention. And does that
Speaker 1: mean for governments essentially, no prices too high to pay
Speaker 1: to save these companies In a way, that is what
Speaker 1: we were trying to What we were seeing with Uniper
Speaker 1: was the kind of discussion with Finland trying to get
Speaker 1: them to help out as well, and the pushback sort
Speaker 1: of saying, you know, we don't because the cost obviously
Speaker 1: gets passed on two people. So the government, the German government,
Speaker 1: will pass those costs on eventually to German consumers, and
Speaker 1: so they wanted to try to spread some of that
Speaker 1: burden because you know it it fixes things today. But
Speaker 1: in a way, a lot of the costs get kicked
Speaker 1: down the road, and it means the crisis could last
Speaker 1: longer and longer as those costs continue to feed for
Speaker 1: two bills. Indeed, there's an element of this that's quite
Speaker 1: reminiscent of the Eurozone crisis as well, where we were
Speaker 1: talking about big government intervention. At the time, it was
Speaker 1: more related to banks and how and exactly who pays
Speaker 1: for that. Further down the line as well, how much
Speaker 1: of a challenge is this for governments to manage these
Speaker 1: sorts of unruly issues around how predictable I suppose is
Speaker 1: that these problems would arise for governments. Yes, I think
Speaker 1: it's exactly that. It's a sort of short term sigh
Speaker 1: of relief from everybody, But then later, you know, there
Speaker 1: needs it needs to be worked out, what happens and
Speaker 1: how to how to pay for it, because a lot
Speaker 1: of what's happening in the energy markets has not gone away.
Speaker 1: You know, high prices haven't changed, the Russian situation is
Speaker 1: still going. Gas supply is still being curbed, so those
Speaker 1: factors that were causing big problems are still there. So
Speaker 1: you know, it may become to a point where the
Speaker 1: government's tested on how deep their pockets are if if
Speaker 1: Uniper continues to need cash, what they can cut back
Speaker 1: on what they can do with passing on the cost
Speaker 1: to customers, which has been a big issue in Germany
Speaker 1: that they can't pass a lot of those extra costs
Speaker 1: onto their industrial customers. We're in the summer in Europe now,
Speaker 1: so this is the period where normally we'd see demand
Speaker 1: for these sort of energy companies being lower. That's not
Speaker 1: been the case due to some of the heat waves involved.
Speaker 1: But how much worse could this problem get later in
Speaker 1: the year when we head into winter. Yes, that's right.
Speaker 1: It's that's really the most surprising thing about some of
Speaker 1: the sort of supply issues that we've seen from um
Speaker 1: the warm rivers in particular in Germany and in France,
Speaker 1: we've seen some output cuts at power plants. And this
Speaker 1: is summer. As you said, demand is low, so we're
Speaker 1: really seeing a kind of fear about what will happen
Speaker 1: if demand continues to rise, as we know that it
Speaker 1: will a winter. What happens when the weather gets cold,
Speaker 1: and if you cannot find any more supply for the market,
Speaker 1: then the only thing you can do is cut demand.
Speaker 1: And we're seeing government starting to draw up their emergency
Speaker 1: plans figure out which industries they'll cut, who who can
Speaker 1: who can give back some of the demand that they
Speaker 1: usually need, because we're not going to be able to
Speaker 1: supply power and gas to everybody in the same way
Speaker 1: as we did last winter. And of course that's not
Speaker 1: just a continental European problem. We're seeing the UK government
Speaker 1: also prepare for that problem leading up to blackouts. Were
Speaker 1: told yes, it's looking like there's a four day period
Speaker 1: in January that they're particularly worried about, where if the
Speaker 1: weather gets cold, if supply on interconnectors, both power coming
Speaker 1: from the continent and gas is limited that there wouldn't
Speaker 1: be enough gas perhaps for power generation, and at that
Speaker 1: point they may need to take action to cut industry
Speaker 1: and also households. So that's sort of likely to be
Speaker 1: in a sort of rolling way where they may say
Speaker 1: to one region at a time that you know, you
Speaker 1: have to have no electricity for an hour or so,
Speaker 1: and then swap between the different regions. But I mean,
Speaker 1: that's really quite shocking to think that, you know, a
Speaker 1: G seven economy can can be facing that in just
Speaker 1: a few months time. Are there any other i'll turnative
Speaker 1: options for energy sources? So gases has been traditionally been
Speaker 1: the filler to pick up where other energy sources can't
Speaker 1: compete either any other choices that governments have. That's really
Speaker 1: the reason why Europe is rushing to fill gas storage.
Speaker 1: So that's the best way that you know, we can
Speaker 1: keep those reserves. We know how much we have, we
Speaker 1: can use it. However, the problem is is that even
Speaker 1: if we get those levels full, if Russia cuts off
Speaker 1: the gas, you know, just quite soon into the winter,
Speaker 1: say October November, then analysts do think that we will
Speaker 1: run out of gas in storage. Okay, Rachel Morrison leading
Speaker 1: our team of energy reporters here in London. Thank you
Speaker 1: very much for your time. I'm Stephen Caroline, London. You
Speaker 1: can catch us every weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe,
Speaker 1: beginning at six am in London and one am on
Speaker 1: Wall Street. John Justly Hill on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Name
Speaker 1: one country where the economy has been coming along and
Speaker 1: inflation isn't a problem yet. We'll take a look at
Speaker 1: Indonesia and John Tucker broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive
Speaker 1: Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg Trio to Washington, d C,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine sixty to the country, Sirius XM Channel one
Speaker 1: nineteen to London, d A B digital radio, and around
Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend. I'm John Zuckery in
Speaker 1: New York with your global looking ahead of the top
Speaker 1: stories for investors in the coming week. You know, we
Speaker 1: talked a lot about how inflation is slamming Asian countries
Speaker 1: and growth has been slow, but you know that's not
Speaker 1: true everywhere in Asia for more. Let's go to Hong
Speaker 1: Kong and Bloomberg day Break Asia hosts Brian Curtis and
Speaker 1: his colleague Doun Krisner, John Doug and I thought it
Speaker 1: would be a good time to talk about Indonesia. Indonesia's
Speaker 1: annual budget comes out on August. The economy has been
Speaker 1: humming along very nicely this year, even with some of
Speaker 1: the extraordinary challenges of supply chain disruptions and inflation around
Speaker 1: the world. The Jakarta Composite Index is one of the
Speaker 1: few global stock benchmarks to actually be in the green
Speaker 1: for the year, and unlike many countries, inflation in Indonesia
Speaker 1: is not being viewed as a major issue. Bank Indonesia's
Speaker 1: core inflation measure is near the midpoint of its goal
Speaker 1: that between two to four percent. Even so, the central
Speaker 1: bank is expected to raise infest rates this month. Joining
Speaker 1: us is Claire Jao, who reports on the Indonesian economy
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News. So a lot, Claire is going right
Speaker 1: in Indonesia. It's been helped a lot, I guess by
Speaker 1: high commodity prices for a big part of the first
Speaker 1: half of the year. But they're also getting policy right.
Speaker 1: In Indonesia, what would you say is the sweet spot
Speaker 1: at the moment. Yeah, Indonesia has really been one of
Speaker 1: the few lucky countries of twenty two. As you've said, well,
Speaker 1: the rest of the world has been worried about inflation.
Speaker 1: Indonesia has had manageable inflation. The budget is in surplus,
Speaker 1: and record low interest rates until now, well everyone is hiking.
Speaker 1: So it's curious because if you look at the latest
Speaker 1: reading on consumer confidence for the month of July, I
Speaker 1: think the index was down a little bit more than
Speaker 1: what we saw in June. How is the Indonesian consumer faring?
Speaker 1: If you look at inflation in Indonesia, the headline inflation
Speaker 1: has been a pretty good number. We're still at five
Speaker 1: percent uh, it's breached the central banks target of two
Speaker 1: to four percent. However, if you strip out all of
Speaker 1: the volatile items and look at just core inflation, which
Speaker 1: is what the central bank is looking at, it's still
Speaker 1: at three percent, which is still at the midpoint of
Speaker 1: its target. That's really what's helped it keep interest rates
Speaker 1: at record lows. However, as you mentioned, consumer sentiment is
Speaker 1: going down, and the reason for that is because volatile
Speaker 1: food items are surging, the prices are searching for that.
Speaker 1: That's for important foods like so if for example, and
Speaker 1: um crops like chili, garlic that have been affected by
Speaker 1: bad weather. So there is there does seem to be
Speaker 1: a bit of a divide between what the central bank
Speaker 1: is tracking, which is core inflation, and what consumers really
Speaker 1: feel on the ground based on what everyday items they
Speaker 1: buy and what every day items they have to consume.
Speaker 1: What happens when commodity prices really turn. We've seen some
Speaker 1: easing of commodity prices, generally a big drop in oil prices.
Speaker 1: In such if there's a bigger fall off, how does
Speaker 1: that affect the country? I guess that's the mystery that
Speaker 1: that Indonesia has to face next year. The government is
Speaker 1: well aware that the commodity we've has to turn at
Speaker 1: some point UM and that much of what's driving price
Speaker 1: pressures up to day is what's happening in supply chains
Speaker 1: and the war in Ukraine UM. And that's really given
Speaker 1: them a lot of leeway this year. That's given them
Speaker 1: record high exports, that's given them government revenues, that's allowed
Speaker 1: them to pour in as much as thirty four billion
Speaker 1: dollars in subsidies and compensation to keep energy costs low
Speaker 1: for ordinary Indonesians. That same situation may not happen in
Speaker 1: once these coal and oil prices fall. So what they're
Speaker 1: hoping for is to start to taper off UM some
Speaker 1: of their unnecessary spending UM. President Joco Weddo has told
Speaker 1: his ministers, don't start new projects, Let's focus on just
Speaker 1: finishing the existing ones. So it's very interesting that you
Speaker 1: bring up the president because in the coming week, the
Speaker 1: editor in chief of Bloomberg News, John mickel Thwaite, will
Speaker 1: be sitting down in conversation with President Joco Weddo. Recently, Joco,
Speaker 1: we ordered the cabinet to keep using the budget. Fore
Speaker 1: is I think the way the Finance minister described it
Speaker 1: as a shock absorber keeping that budget deficit below three
Speaker 1: percent of total GDP. So talk to us a little
Speaker 1: bit about the importance of government subsidies in keeping the
Speaker 1: Indonesian economy in this current sweet spot. I think that's
Speaker 1: how Brian described it. Yeah. So, and as we've seen
Speaker 1: with many countries, inflation can be a very political issue,
Speaker 1: and Ko we saw that earlier this year. When cocaing
Speaker 1: oil prices surged and his popularity ratings fell. So this
Speaker 1: is something that's very very close to his heart. Um.
Speaker 1: He was a very firm advocate in streamlining fuel subsidies,
Speaker 1: energy subsidies, but that's something that they've really stepped back
Speaker 1: on this year, and instead they've said, whatever money that
Speaker 1: we're earning from our record high exports, let's pour it
Speaker 1: back into the economy through these subsidies instead. Clara, thanks
Speaker 1: so much for joining us and for sharing your insights
Speaker 1: on Indonesia. Claire Joe, who reports on the Indonesian economy
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News, Brian Curtis along with Doug Krisner. You
Speaker 1: can catch us every weekday here for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia,
Speaker 1: beginning at six am in Hong Kong and six pm
Speaker 1: on morste John, Brian, and Duck. Thanks a lot. Just
Speaker 1: to Hill of Bloomberg day Break Weekend, former President Trump
Speaker 1: and the g This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global
Speaker 1: look ahead of the top stories for investors in the
Speaker 1: coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. Watch for
Speaker 1: Republicans to either continue to try to capitalize on former
Speaker 1: President Trump's recent headlines or try to distance themselves from
Speaker 1: them for more or let's head to our bloombergroom in
Speaker 1: Washington and Amy Morris Amy. All right, thank you, John,
Speaker 1: And we do have more primaries underway in the coming week,
Speaker 1: more investigations unfolding as well. Joining me now to talk
Speaker 1: about this and to connect some dots. Bloomberg National political
Speaker 1: reporter barn Naquette, Mark, thank you so much for taking
Speaker 1: the time with us. Good to be with you. Now,
Speaker 1: let's start with the GOP and former President Trump and um,
Speaker 1: some Republicans you've seen casting Trump as a victim in
Speaker 1: all of this these investigations. How has this galvanized them? Well,
Speaker 1: particularly the search warrant that the FBI executed at Trump's
Speaker 1: Morilago resort this week. Um. The Republicans have really sought
Speaker 1: to capitalize, I think on that rate in in a
Speaker 1: couple of ways. One by firing up the Republican base
Speaker 1: for the mid term elections where in control of Congress
Speaker 1: will be determined. Uh. And also President Trump, I think
Speaker 1: is going to try to use it to solidify support
Speaker 1: around him. Um. You know we've seen you know, Trump
Speaker 1: and prominent Republicans for a long time. Um, try and
Speaker 1: undermine UH credibility and and and trust in major institutions,
Speaker 1: essentially saying these institutions are broken and are after Trump
Speaker 1: in particular and Republicans in general, whether it's the Justice
Speaker 1: Department and the FBI and the media and fake news
Speaker 1: and big tech which censors conservatives. So this rate in Florida, UM,
Speaker 1: you know, sort of being used to reinforce that idea
Speaker 1: that UM, you know, the Democrats in particular and UH
Speaker 1: control of the machinery of government are are out to
Speaker 1: get Trump and Republicans. This could fire up the base.
Speaker 1: But also I think that Trump's the hoping and it's
Speaker 1: can sort of bolster his grip on the GOP. And
Speaker 1: we had seen signs that it was slipping with the
Speaker 1: January six investigations. UH. And you know, some things like
Speaker 1: his endorsed candidates not winning in some high profile races
Speaker 1: like in Georgia, UM and Poles were showing that, you know,
Speaker 1: Republicans were starting to feel like even if they loved Trump,
Speaker 1: they loved his policies, they loved his first term. You know,
Speaker 1: they might be opened to somebody like Governor PA Governor
Speaker 1: Ron de Santis, who supports saw the Trump policies, but
Speaker 1: doesn't have the same political baggage you know, for potential run.
Speaker 1: So again, the rates sort of I think you've seen
Speaker 1: you know, Republicans rallying around Trump and you know, in
Speaker 1: in some ways could actually boost his support within the party.
Speaker 1: I wondered about that. You mentioned that this would fire
Speaker 1: up the base but couldn't move the needle or changed minds.
Speaker 1: And what I mean is those who are really entrenched
Speaker 1: with Donald Trump tend to be unflinchingly rigid. They're not
Speaker 1: going to sway. Will this make them maybe have a
Speaker 1: second thought? Or on the flip side of that, those
Speaker 1: quote never trumpers that we've heard about, would this move
Speaker 1: the needle for them? Would they start thinking, Wow, they
Speaker 1: really are treating him unfairly, Like does the needle move
Speaker 1: either way depending on which side of the coin you're
Speaker 1: looking at. Yeah, that's a good question. I think the
Speaker 1: answer is we don't know. I mean, you're right, I
Speaker 1: think sort of the first impression or first instinct is
Speaker 1: that this, this rate in particular, is not going to
Speaker 1: really change any minds. If you you know, before the rate,
Speaker 1: you know hated Donald Trump and think, you know, he
Speaker 1: should be in jail. This you know, this rate will
Speaker 1: just reinforce it that he's you know, um deserved ing
Speaker 1: of being rated. Um. But if you were, like you said,
Speaker 1: a Trump supporter, Um, you know, the ray will just
Speaker 1: reinforce the idea that the Democrats are out to get him.
Speaker 1: I think the question is does it does it motivate
Speaker 1: anybody to vote who otherwise might not be inspired to
Speaker 1: vote in the mid terms, particularly Republicans? You know, does
Speaker 1: this sort of get you know, a Republican voter off
Speaker 1: the couch he thinks, well, yeah, you know, it really
Speaker 1: is important that I vote in this selection because again,
Speaker 1: the Democrats are out to get the Republicans and Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: So it's not a matter of winning hearts and minds
Speaker 1: as it is just getting people out to the polls,
Speaker 1: increasing that that appearance of the polls right in particular
Speaker 1: in some of these key midterm races, um, you know,
Speaker 1: where you know, swing voters could could matter and in
Speaker 1: determining the outcome of who wins and you know, ultimately
Speaker 1: who controls you know, Congress. Looking ahead though, could this
Speaker 1: possibly motivate Donald Trump to announce a run for president
Speaker 1: sooner rather than later? I know there was a debate
Speaker 1: amongst some of his supporters saying, no, no, no, you
Speaker 1: want to wait because of the financial implications and the
Speaker 1: the debts that you might have to pay off. What
Speaker 1: would be the advantage of announcing sooner because of the
Speaker 1: search by the FBI. Yeah, you're right, there's there's some
Speaker 1: in his world that are calling for him to announce immediately.
Speaker 1: Steve Bannon, for for one, UM, he's saying, you know,
Speaker 1: President should fly down to Marrow Largo today and and
Speaker 1: announced he's running. Um. There's some thought that you know,
Speaker 1: this would help him, UM by sort of capitalizing on
Speaker 1: on the raid and say well, hey, I'm fighting back.
Speaker 1: And and also you know, there's there's some thought that
Speaker 1: you know, if he's a an announced candidate for president,
Speaker 1: it makes it harder for um, these various investigations to
Speaker 1: to touch him. You know, that the idea that it
Speaker 1: would be harder to prosecute a you know, uh, an
Speaker 1: actual federal candidate rather than somebody who just talked about
Speaker 1: running for office. But there's still you know, a big
Speaker 1: push against Trump doing that. A lot of Republicans feel
Speaker 1: like if if Donald Trump announced that he's running in
Speaker 1: today that this would actually hurt Republicans efforts to retake
Speaker 1: control of the House and the Senate in the midterm elections.
Speaker 1: Republicans very much want to run on um skyrocketing inflation
Speaker 1: and crime and issues they think and they could really
Speaker 1: use against Democrats and make the midterm races about that.
Speaker 1: And if Donald Trump is running for president, the fear
Speaker 1: is that could just energize Democrats, you know, particularly some
Speaker 1: of these swinging independent voters who don't like Trump, to
Speaker 1: get out and vote UM and distract from the attempts
Speaker 1: by Republicans to use inflation in the economy against Democrats. So,
Speaker 1: you know, the Democrats would very much like the races
Speaker 1: to be about Donald Trump and not you know, some
Speaker 1: of the issues they're fighting. And we are talking with
Speaker 1: Bloomberg National political reporter Mark Niquet about former President Trump's
Speaker 1: legal problems and how that could impact voters. Now, Mark,
Speaker 1: you are in Ohio. You've covered presidential campaigns, including the
Speaker 1: Trump campaign in twenties six, and you've been tracking these investigations.
Speaker 1: I'm curious about what it looks like inside the GOP
Speaker 1: right now. Is there more of a split than we're
Speaker 1: seeing publicly? Are those are those who may be laying
Speaker 1: the groundwork for a post Trump GOP Actually was kind
Speaker 1: of seeing the opposite where you know, we had, um,
Speaker 1: some uncertainty before the the FBI raid about you know,
Speaker 1: who would actually be willing to challenge Donald Trump in
Speaker 1: if you ran on the Republican side. UM. You know,
Speaker 1: we had potential Canadas like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, UM, UH,
Speaker 1: Senator Tom Cotton, UM, former UN Ambassador UH, Nikki Hayley,
Speaker 1: you know, all out there sort of laying the groundwork
Speaker 1: for a potential run, but unclear if they would actually
Speaker 1: challenge Trump if he ran. UM. And with this this raid,
Speaker 1: I think you've seen sort of a rallying around Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: You know, immediately after the raid, UM, you saw virtually
Speaker 1: all of the potential Republican presidential candidates, including Ronda Santis
Speaker 1: UM putting out tweets and statements supporting Trump and calling
Speaker 1: this raid you know, politically motivated and and and the like,
Speaker 1: UM sort of suggesting that they feel like Trump still
Speaker 1: is the king of the GOP and you know they
Speaker 1: needed to be out front, you know, supporting him on
Speaker 1: this raid. So I think it raises the question does
Speaker 1: this make it more difficult? UM? For any of these
Speaker 1: candidates to actually challenge Trump. If Trump announces for again,
Speaker 1: I think part of what happens when we have a
Speaker 1: big news event like this is a goal. We want
Speaker 1: to analyze it and you know, decide determinatively what what
Speaker 1: what it means and what the impact is going to be.
Speaker 1: But I think we really have to wait to see
Speaker 1: what the gist of the investigation is and what evidence
Speaker 1: actually does come out of this again, so they will
Speaker 1: determine what the public perception of whether the UH search
Speaker 1: of a former president's home was justified. And looking forward,
Speaker 1: there are more primaries ahead marked including in Wyoming. Everybody's
Speaker 1: watching that one rep. Senaitive, Liz Cheney is expected to
Speaker 1: lose her seat, But I don't know that it is
Speaker 1: a foregone conclusion. Let's just do a what if? What
Speaker 1: if Cheney does lose? What comes next for her? Well,
Speaker 1: there's some thought that she might use this as a
Speaker 1: springboard to to run for president that um, you know,
Speaker 1: she's committed, if nothing else, to seeing that Donald Trump
Speaker 1: does not get re elected president or even win the
Speaker 1: Republican nomination. Um. So you know, there's some thinking that
Speaker 1: you know, even a loss in in this Wyoming race
Speaker 1: could sort of make her a martyr for the cause
Speaker 1: that she's defending truth and um, you know, pursuing a
Speaker 1: righteous path. Um. You know, the big question I think
Speaker 1: we have about that race is, you know, how many
Speaker 1: Democrats and Independence cross over to to vote for Cheney. Um.
Speaker 1: I mean the polls suggests that, you know, she's gonna lose,
Speaker 1: and she's gonna lose big, and that Republicans overwhelmingly do
Speaker 1: not support her and support her opponent, Harriet Hagman. But
Speaker 1: Wyoming is one of these states where it's a sort
Speaker 1: of open primary where anybody can go in and ask
Speaker 1: for the Republican ballot. And you know, there's signs that
Speaker 1: you know a lot of Democrats and Independence are interested
Speaker 1: in supporting Hamen like that she's taking on Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: and could um, you know, pull the Republican ballot and
Speaker 1: I could sort of skew the the outcome. And if
Speaker 1: there's enough of these um folks who are crossing over,
Speaker 1: it could make the race a lot closer than we
Speaker 1: think or that the polls right now are suggesting. All right, Mark,
Speaker 1: I want to thank you for taking the time with us.
Speaker 1: We're going to be watching those results with you, Thanks
Speaker 1: so much. Thank you. Mark Niquette covers Congress for Bloomberg News,
Speaker 1: and that is what is going on in the nation's capital.
Speaker 1: For more of our political news coverage, tune into Balance
Speaker 1: of Power with David Weston weekdays at noon Wall Street Time,
Speaker 1: and Sound On with Joe Matthew weekdays at five pm
Speaker 1: Wall Street Time. Right here on Bloomberg Radio, I'm Amy Morris.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg John, Amy Morris for hoarding from our
Speaker 1: Bloomberg room in Washington. Thanks a lot, Amy, and that
Speaker 1: does it for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join
Speaker 1: us again Monday morning at five am All Street Time
Speaker 1: for the latest on markets overseas and the news you
Speaker 1: need to start your today. I'm John Tucker and this
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg