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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at

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Speaker 1: the top stories in the coming way from my Daybreak

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Speaker 1: anchors all around the world, and just a hit on

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Speaker 1: the program. How is retail holding up? Are consumers pulling back?

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Speaker 1: John Tucker in New York. I'm Stephen Carlin London. But

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Speaker 1: we're looking ahead to the results from the struggling German

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Speaker 1: energy giants Uniper and Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. Low

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Speaker 1: levels of inflation, record low interest rates and a better

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Speaker 1: than expected economy. What are we talking about Indonesia? I'm

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Speaker 1: Amy Morris in Washington. We're gauging the impact of the

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Speaker 1: investigations in the President Trump's dealings on downballot races. That's

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Speaker 1: all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg Elibam

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Speaker 1: Free O, New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: d AB, Digital Radio London, Sirius XM one nineteen and

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Speaker 1: around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. Hi, everybody, I'm John Tucker, and

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Speaker 1: let's start today's program with retail and Bloomberg's retail reporter

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Speaker 1: Brandon Case joining us from Dallas. We have a bunch

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Speaker 1: of retailers opening their books in the coming week home

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Speaker 1: Dee Paul, Walmart, parent of t J Banks and Marshall's

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Speaker 1: Target calls Macy's Ross Stars. So, before we get to

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Speaker 1: some of the specifics, Brendan, how is the American consumer

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Speaker 1: holding up? I think the after that is so so.

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Speaker 1: What you've seen so far is you've seen pretty steady,

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Speaker 1: even sometimes robust, overall spending. But if you break that down,

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Speaker 1: what you're seeing is a consumer that is increasingly under

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Speaker 1: a lot of stress. And what that is causing is

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Speaker 1: a situation where people are being forced to spend a

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Speaker 1: lot more on essentials, food, fuel, things like that, and

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Speaker 1: that's leaving a lot less money left over for discretionary goods.

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Speaker 1: UM and us emerged as a big problem for Walmart, Target,

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Speaker 1: pretty much all retailers, UM and I think that with

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Speaker 1: the earnings reports coming out the next week and and

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Speaker 1: and also after that, we should get a lot more

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Speaker 1: insight into how these companies think the consumer will hold

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Speaker 1: up the rest of the year. We'll get more about

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Speaker 1: the back to school shopping season and probably get there.

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Speaker 1: They're kind of the retailer's first predictions about the holiday

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Speaker 1: rush at the end of the year. We're already up

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Speaker 1: to that. Yeah, we're already there. I mean, of course,

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Speaker 1: for a lot of these retailers, they've been planning for

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Speaker 1: that since February literally. Um, but it's it's it's it's

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Speaker 1: increasingly upon us. You know, last year that holiday season

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Speaker 1: started pretty early because of all the supply changes, ruptions,

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Speaker 1: people who are out shopping, you know, earlier than usual. Um.

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Speaker 1: And we'll see what happens this year. I think the

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Speaker 1: question boils down to whether retail spending is going to

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Speaker 1: end up being a lot weaker after two very strong

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Speaker 1: years during the pandemic. Okay, Um, we're still buying stuff,

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Speaker 1: but it's just the stuff that's lower margin. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I have to buy groceries. I gotta eat, but maybe

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to spend you buy a TV or

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Speaker 1: something like that. Yeah, that's exactly right. So if you

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Speaker 1: look at that through the prism of of Walmart Target,

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Speaker 1: what that means is that people are spending a lot

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Speaker 1: more on groceries, which those companies make less money off of. Um,

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Speaker 1: they make more money from general merchandise sales, you know,

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Speaker 1: like clothing, electronics, home goods, um. And they're selling a

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Speaker 1: lot less of those more profitable items and a lot

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Speaker 1: more of the low margin items. And so if you

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Speaker 1: take a company like Walmart, they actually, you know, they're

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Speaker 1: actually doing fine from a revenue perspective. They actually raised

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Speaker 1: their revenue forecast a little bit less month. But since

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Speaker 1: they're selling more of their less profitable you know stuff

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Speaker 1: their their their groceries, UM, it's really hurting profit. And

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Speaker 1: it's also causing them to mark down a lot of items,

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Speaker 1: which further erode their profit margins. And that's not to

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Speaker 1: say that they're cutting all prices. I think what they're

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Speaker 1: doing is basically boosting the price any any place they can,

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Speaker 1: but in some categories the sales just aren't there and

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Speaker 1: so they're having to cut prices. Okay, Well that leads

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Speaker 1: me to the next question, as far as the inventories.

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Speaker 1: Are the inventories of these places bloated, yes, very much.

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Speaker 1: So okay, so why wouldn't they automatically have to discount then? Right, Well,

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Speaker 1: that's what they're doing to a certain extent. And the

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Speaker 1: mystery is that we don't know exactly what their inventories

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Speaker 1: are made up of. But if you imagine the inventories

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Speaker 1: as being a little bit overweighted towards discretionary goods they

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Speaker 1: thought they could sell earlier this year, that's what they're

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Speaker 1: having to mark down more and more aggressively. And we're

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Speaker 1: talking about clothing, We're talking about kitchen appliances, we're talking

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Speaker 1: about patio furniture, all that stuff that people are stocking

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Speaker 1: up on during the pandemic. You know, the retailers knew

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Speaker 1: that spending was going to tail off on those categories,

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Speaker 1: but what they misjudged is just how fast that would happen. Um.

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Speaker 1: But what they're not doing is they're not discounting the

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Speaker 1: central goods that people are increasingly, you know, using their

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Speaker 1: paychecks to to to die. Do these places they have

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Speaker 1: their own credit cards? And the reason I answered do they?

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Speaker 1: Does that tell us much about how much debt is

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Speaker 1: being racked up by their customers, whether those they're paying

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Speaker 1: off those credit card balances? Yeah, a lot of them do.

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Speaker 1: Targets got its own credit card. A lot of the

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Speaker 1: department stores have their own credit cards, the Hume Gold stores, UM.

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Speaker 1: And I think what you're see being there is that

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Speaker 1: you know, spending um has been very strong, and savings

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Speaker 1: had been going up a lot during the pandemic, in

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Speaker 1: large part because of the government stimulus programs and also

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Speaker 1: because people were not going out as much. I think

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Speaker 1: what you're seeing now is that people are increasingly kind

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Speaker 1: of blowing through those savings. They've got um less of

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Speaker 1: a cushion, and you know, that's really starting to eat

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Speaker 1: into what they're able to actually spend its stores and

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Speaker 1: sort of causing this overhang on retail sales. Brendon will

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Speaker 1: leave it there. Thanks very much for joining us. We

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Speaker 1: appreciate it. Bloomberg's retail reporter, Brendan Case. And just ahead

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, look at Germany's Uniper and the

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Speaker 1: Russian energy crunch on. John Tucker. This is Bloomberg. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead of the

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Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm John

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Speaker 1: Tucker in New York. Up leader in the program. Indonesia's

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Speaker 1: economy has been homming along. Can it continue? But first,

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Speaker 1: the German energy giant Uniper will report results that will

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Speaker 1: be closely scrutinized this week. That firm has been at

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Speaker 1: the center of Europe's energy crisis since it was forced

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Speaker 1: to seek a government bail out last month. And for more,

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Speaker 1: let's into London now and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe

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Speaker 1: anchor Stephen Carroll. Stephen thanks a lot. John. Uniper is

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Speaker 1: Germany's biggest buyer of Russian gas and was pushed to

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Speaker 1: the brink because Vladimir Putin squeeze supplies and retaliation for

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Speaker 1: European sanctions against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Germany's economy Minister

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Speaker 1: Robert Habeck has warned that Russia's gas squeeze posed the

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Speaker 1: risk of a Lehman Brothers like contagion with universe failure

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Speaker 1: potentially spilling over to the wider economy. So these are

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Speaker 1: a set of results very keenly watched. For more, I'm

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Speaker 1: joined by Bloomberg's Rachel Morrison, who leads our team of

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Speaker 1: energy reporters here in London. Rachel, what exactly is it

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Speaker 1: about these results that we're looking out for most importantly, Yes,

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Speaker 1: you're right, it's going to be super interesting because a

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Speaker 1: lot of what these results will cover will be the

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Speaker 1: period before the government bailout. So Uniper has been quite

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Speaker 1: upfront with updates to the market on how much money

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Speaker 1: they were losing, so a lot of that was in

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Speaker 1: the lead up to the bailout. But we expect to

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Speaker 1: see a bit more on the losses they're making on

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Speaker 1: having to buy gas to replace the gas and not

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Speaker 1: getting from Russia and those contracts that you know they

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Speaker 1: have to pass onto customers. So we'll see, you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe an update on losses and really what their balance

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Speaker 1: sheet is looking like. So we don't know how they

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Speaker 1: will factor in the government bailout, but we'll get an

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Speaker 1: idea of just how quickly they're burning through money, and

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Speaker 1: it will be interesting to see how much of a

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Speaker 1: problem the gas supply situation is still causing them. It's

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Speaker 1: because this is a company that's at the point to end,

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Speaker 1: if I can put it that way, of this crisis

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Speaker 1: and the supply issues coming from Russian gas as well.

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Speaker 1: We are seeing governments across Europe trying to address these

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Speaker 1: issues with big state owned energy companies when they're dealing

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Speaker 1: with different supply issues. Another case of that z d

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Speaker 1: F and France, where the French government, which already owned

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Speaker 1: the vast majority of that company, has now stepped in

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Speaker 1: to try and buy more of it. Is this a

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Speaker 1: big challenge facing governments in Europe to try and manage

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Speaker 1: crises and energy giants. Yes, we're really seeing a time

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Speaker 1: when energy companies are just too big to fail. So

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Speaker 1: the chaos that would ensue from the downfall of one

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Speaker 1: of these big companies. So on the kind of industrial side,

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Speaker 1: these companies by wholesale gas and sell it to industry,

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Speaker 1: and also they both have customer facing parts to the business,

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Speaker 1: not just at home but in other countries too, and

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Speaker 1: the disruption that that would cause if they were to

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Speaker 1: fail just wouldn't be fathomable at this time. You know,

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Speaker 1: in the past, perhaps another company could step in UM

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Speaker 1: and so there wouldn't be the same kind of impetus

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Speaker 1: from governments to bail out companies. But at the moment,

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Speaker 1: the same pressures face most of the other companies and

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Speaker 1: it would be difficult to find anyone else to step in,

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Speaker 1: particularly with some of the bills we've seen that UM

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Speaker 1: governments have picked up with the likes of Uniper and

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Speaker 1: e d F. You know, that's not going to be

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Speaker 1: something that another company can easily provide, which is really

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Speaker 1: why it has to be government intervention. And does that

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Speaker 1: mean for governments essentially, no prices too high to pay

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Speaker 1: to save these companies In a way, that is what

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Speaker 1: we were trying to What we were seeing with Uniper

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Speaker 1: was the kind of discussion with Finland trying to get

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Speaker 1: them to help out as well, and the pushback sort

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Speaker 1: of saying, you know, we don't because the cost obviously

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Speaker 1: gets passed on two people. So the government, the German government,

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Speaker 1: will pass those costs on eventually to German consumers, and

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Speaker 1: so they wanted to try to spread some of that

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Speaker 1: burden because you know it it fixes things today. But

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Speaker 1: in a way, a lot of the costs get kicked

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Speaker 1: down the road, and it means the crisis could last

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Speaker 1: longer and longer as those costs continue to feed for

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Speaker 1: two bills. Indeed, there's an element of this that's quite

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Speaker 1: reminiscent of the Eurozone crisis as well, where we were

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Speaker 1: talking about big government intervention. At the time, it was

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Speaker 1: more related to banks and how and exactly who pays

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Speaker 1: for that. Further down the line as well, how much

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Speaker 1: of a challenge is this for governments to manage these

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Speaker 1: sorts of unruly issues around how predictable I suppose is

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Speaker 1: that these problems would arise for governments. Yes, I think

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Speaker 1: it's exactly that. It's a sort of short term sigh

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Speaker 1: of relief from everybody, But then later, you know, there

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Speaker 1: needs it needs to be worked out, what happens and

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Speaker 1: how to how to pay for it, because a lot

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Speaker 1: of what's happening in the energy markets has not gone away.

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Speaker 1: You know, high prices haven't changed, the Russian situation is

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Speaker 1: still going. Gas supply is still being curbed, so those

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Speaker 1: factors that were causing big problems are still there. So

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Speaker 1: you know, it may become to a point where the

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Speaker 1: government's tested on how deep their pockets are if if

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Speaker 1: Uniper continues to need cash, what they can cut back

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Speaker 1: on what they can do with passing on the cost

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Speaker 1: to customers, which has been a big issue in Germany

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Speaker 1: that they can't pass a lot of those extra costs

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Speaker 1: onto their industrial customers. We're in the summer in Europe now,

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Speaker 1: so this is the period where normally we'd see demand

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Speaker 1: for these sort of energy companies being lower. That's not

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Speaker 1: been the case due to some of the heat waves involved.

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Speaker 1: But how much worse could this problem get later in

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Speaker 1: the year when we head into winter. Yes, that's right.

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Speaker 1: It's that's really the most surprising thing about some of

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Speaker 1: the warm rivers in particular in Germany and in France,

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Speaker 1: we've seen some output cuts at power plants. And this

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Speaker 1: is summer. As you said, demand is low, so we're

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Speaker 1: really seeing a kind of fear about what will happen

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Speaker 1: if demand continues to rise, as we know that it

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Speaker 1: and if you cannot find any more supply for the market,

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Speaker 1: And we're seeing government starting to draw up their emergency

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Speaker 1: supply power and gas to everybody in the same way

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Speaker 1: also prepare for that problem leading up to blackouts. Were

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Speaker 1: be enough gas perhaps for power generation, and at that

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Speaker 1: point they may need to take action to cut industry

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Speaker 1: and also households. So that's sort of likely to be

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Speaker 1: in a sort of rolling way where they may say

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Speaker 1: to one region at a time that you know, you

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Speaker 1: have to have no electricity for an hour or so,

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Speaker 1: and then swap between the different regions. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's really quite shocking to think that, you know, a

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Speaker 1: a few months time. Are there any other i'll turnative

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Speaker 1: options for energy sources? So gases has been traditionally been

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Speaker 1: the filler to pick up where other energy sources can't

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Speaker 1: compete either any other choices that governments have. That's really

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Speaker 1: the reason why Europe is rushing to fill gas storage.

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Speaker 1: So that's the best way that you know, we can

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Speaker 1: keep those reserves. We know how much we have, we

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Speaker 1: can use it. However, the problem is is that even

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Speaker 1: if we get those levels full, if Russia cuts off

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Speaker 1: the gas, you know, just quite soon into the winter,

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Speaker 1: say October November, then analysts do think that we will

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Speaker 1: run out of gas in storage. Okay, Rachel Morrison leading

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Speaker 1: our team of energy reporters here in London. Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much for your time. I'm Stephen Caroline, London. You

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Speaker 1: can catch us every weekday morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe,

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Speaker 1: beginning at six am in London and one am on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street. John Justly Hill on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Name

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Speaker 1: one country where the economy has been coming along and

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Speaker 1: inflation isn't a problem yet. We'll take a look at

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Speaker 1: Indonesia and John Tucker broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive

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Speaker 1: Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg Trio to Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine sixty to the country, Sirius XM Channel one

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Speaker 1: nineteen to London, d A B digital radio, and around

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Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend. I'm John Zuckery in

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Speaker 1: New York with your global looking ahead of the top

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Speaker 1: stories for investors in the coming week. You know, we

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Speaker 1: talked a lot about how inflation is slamming Asian countries

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Speaker 1: and growth has been slow, but you know that's not

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Speaker 1: true everywhere in Asia for more. Let's go to Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong and Bloomberg day Break Asia hosts Brian Curtis and

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Speaker 1: his colleague Doun Krisner, John Doug and I thought it

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Speaker 1: would be a good time to talk about Indonesia. Indonesia's

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Speaker 1: annual budget comes out on August. The economy has been

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Speaker 1: humming along very nicely this year, even with some of

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Speaker 1: the extraordinary challenges of supply chain disruptions and inflation around

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Speaker 1: the world. The Jakarta Composite Index is one of the

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Speaker 1: few global stock benchmarks to actually be in the green

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Speaker 1: for the year, and unlike many countries, inflation in Indonesia

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Speaker 1: is not being viewed as a major issue. Bank Indonesia's

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Speaker 1: core inflation measure is near the midpoint of its goal

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Speaker 1: that between two to four percent. Even so, the central

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Speaker 1: bank is expected to raise infest rates this month. Joining

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Speaker 1: us is Claire Jao, who reports on the Indonesian economy

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Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News. So a lot, Claire is going right

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Speaker 1: in Indonesia. It's been helped a lot, I guess by

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Speaker 1: high commodity prices for a big part of the first

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Speaker 1: half of the year. But they're also getting policy right.

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Speaker 1: In Indonesia, what would you say is the sweet spot

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Speaker 1: at the moment. Yeah, Indonesia has really been one of

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Speaker 1: the few lucky countries of twenty two. As you've said, well,

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Speaker 1: the rest of the world has been worried about inflation.

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Speaker 1: Indonesia has had manageable inflation. The budget is in surplus,

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Speaker 1: and record low interest rates until now, well everyone is hiking.

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Speaker 1: So it's curious because if you look at the latest

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Speaker 1: reading on consumer confidence for the month of July, I

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Speaker 1: think the index was down a little bit more than

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Speaker 1: what we saw in June. How is the Indonesian consumer faring?

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Speaker 1: If you look at inflation in Indonesia, the headline inflation

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Speaker 1: has been a pretty good number. We're still at five

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Speaker 1: percent uh, it's breached the central banks target of two

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Speaker 1: to four percent. However, if you strip out all of

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Speaker 1: the volatile items and look at just core inflation, which

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Speaker 1: is what the central bank is looking at, it's still

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Speaker 1: at three percent, which is still at the midpoint of

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Speaker 1: its target. That's really what's helped it keep interest rates

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Speaker 1: at record lows. However, as you mentioned, consumer sentiment is

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Speaker 1: going down, and the reason for that is because volatile

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Speaker 1: food items are surging, the prices are searching for that.

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Speaker 1: That's for important foods like so if for example, and

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Speaker 1: um crops like chili, garlic that have been affected by

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Speaker 1: bad weather. So there is there does seem to be

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Speaker 1: a bit of a divide between what the central bank

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Speaker 1: is tracking, which is core inflation, and what consumers really

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Speaker 1: feel on the ground based on what everyday items they

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Speaker 1: buy and what every day items they have to consume.

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Speaker 1: What happens when commodity prices really turn. We've seen some

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Speaker 1: easing of commodity prices, generally a big drop in oil prices.

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Speaker 1: In such if there's a bigger fall off, how does

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Speaker 1: that affect the country? I guess that's the mystery that

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Speaker 1: that Indonesia has to face next year. The government is

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Speaker 1: well aware that the commodity we've has to turn at

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Speaker 1: some point UM and that much of what's driving price

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Speaker 1: pressures up to day is what's happening in supply chains

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Speaker 1: and the war in Ukraine UM. And that's really given

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Speaker 1: them a lot of leeway this year. That's given them

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Speaker 1: record high exports, that's given them government revenues, that's allowed

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Speaker 1: them to pour in as much as thirty four billion

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Speaker 1: dollars in subsidies and compensation to keep energy costs low

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Speaker 1: for ordinary Indonesians. That same situation may not happen in

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Speaker 1: once these coal and oil prices fall. So what they're

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Speaker 1: hoping for is to start to taper off UM some

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Speaker 1: of their unnecessary spending UM. President Joco Weddo has told

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Speaker 1: his ministers, don't start new projects, Let's focus on just

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Speaker 1: finishing the existing ones. So it's very interesting that you

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Speaker 1: bring up the president because in the coming week, the

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Speaker 1: editor in chief of Bloomberg News, John mickel Thwaite, will

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Speaker 1: be sitting down in conversation with President Joco Weddo. Recently, Joco,

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Speaker 1: we ordered the cabinet to keep using the budget. Fore

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Speaker 1: is I think the way the Finance minister described it

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Speaker 1: as a shock absorber keeping that budget deficit below three

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Speaker 1: percent of total GDP. So talk to us a little

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Speaker 1: bit about the importance of government subsidies in keeping the

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Speaker 1: Indonesian economy in this current sweet spot. I think that's

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Speaker 1: how Brian described it. Yeah. So, and as we've seen

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Speaker 1: with many countries, inflation can be a very political issue,

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Speaker 1: and Ko we saw that earlier this year. When cocaing

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Speaker 1: oil prices surged and his popularity ratings fell. So this

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Speaker 1: is something that's very very close to his heart. Um.

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Speaker 1: He was a very firm advocate in streamlining fuel subsidies,

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Speaker 1: energy subsidies, but that's something that they've really stepped back

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Speaker 1: on this year, and instead they've said, whatever money that

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Speaker 1: we're earning from our record high exports, let's pour it

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Speaker 1: back into the economy through these subsidies instead. Clara, thanks

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Speaker 1: so much for joining us and for sharing your insights

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Speaker 1: on Indonesia. Claire Joe, who reports on the Indonesian economy

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Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News, Brian Curtis along with Doug Krisner. You

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Speaker 1: can catch us every weekday here for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia,

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Speaker 1: beginning at six am in Hong Kong and six pm

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Speaker 1: on morste John, Brian, and Duck. Thanks a lot. Just

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Speaker 1: to Hill of Bloomberg day Break Weekend, former President Trump

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Speaker 1: and the g This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global

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Speaker 1: look ahead of the top stories for investors in the

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Speaker 1: coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. Watch for

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Speaker 1: Republicans to either continue to try to capitalize on former

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Speaker 1: President Trump's recent headlines or try to distance themselves from

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Speaker 1: them for more or let's head to our bloombergroom in

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Speaker 1: Washington and Amy Morris Amy. All right, thank you, John,

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Speaker 1: And we do have more primaries underway in the coming week,

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Speaker 1: more investigations unfolding as well. Joining me now to talk

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Speaker 1: about this and to connect some dots. Bloomberg National political

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Speaker 1: reporter barn Naquette, Mark, thank you so much for taking

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Speaker 1: the time with us. Good to be with you. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's start with the GOP and former President Trump and um,

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Speaker 1: some Republicans you've seen casting Trump as a victim in

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Speaker 1: all of this these investigations. How has this galvanized them? Well,

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Speaker 1: particularly the search warrant that the FBI executed at Trump's

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Speaker 1: Morilago resort this week. Um. The Republicans have really sought

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Speaker 1: to capitalize, I think on that rate in in a

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Speaker 1: couple of ways. One by firing up the Republican base

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Speaker 1: for the mid term elections where in control of Congress

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Speaker 1: will be determined. Uh. And also President Trump, I think

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Speaker 1: is going to try to use it to solidify support

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Speaker 1: around him. Um. You know we've seen you know, Trump

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Speaker 1: and prominent Republicans for a long time. Um, try and

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Speaker 1: undermine UH credibility and and and trust in major institutions,

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Speaker 1: essentially saying these institutions are broken and are after Trump

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Speaker 1: in particular and Republicans in general, whether it's the Justice

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Speaker 1: Department and the FBI and the media and fake news

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Speaker 1: and big tech which censors conservatives. So this rate in Florida, UM,

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Speaker 1: you know, sort of being used to reinforce that idea

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Speaker 1: that UM, you know, the Democrats in particular and UH

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Speaker 1: control of the machinery of government are are out to

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Speaker 1: get Trump and Republicans. This could fire up the base.

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Speaker 1: But also I think that Trump's the hoping and it's

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Speaker 1: can sort of bolster his grip on the GOP. And

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Speaker 1: we had seen signs that it was slipping with the

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Speaker 1: January six investigations. UH. And you know, some things like

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Speaker 1: his endorsed candidates not winning in some high profile races

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Speaker 1: like in Georgia, UM and Poles were showing that, you know,

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Speaker 1: Republicans were starting to feel like even if they loved Trump,

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Speaker 1: they loved his policies, they loved his first term. You know,

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Speaker 1: they might be opened to somebody like Governor PA Governor

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Speaker 1: Ron de Santis, who supports saw the Trump policies, but

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Speaker 1: doesn't have the same political baggage you know, for potential run.

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Speaker 1: So again, the rates sort of I think you've seen

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Speaker 1: you know, Republicans rallying around Trump and you know, in

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Speaker 1: in some ways could actually boost his support within the party.

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Speaker 1: I wondered about that. You mentioned that this would fire

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Speaker 1: up the base but couldn't move the needle or changed minds.

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Speaker 1: And what I mean is those who are really entrenched

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Speaker 1: with Donald Trump tend to be unflinchingly rigid. They're not

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Speaker 1: going to sway. Will this make them maybe have a

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Speaker 1: second thought? Or on the flip side of that, those

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Speaker 1: quote never trumpers that we've heard about, would this move

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Speaker 1: the needle for them? Would they start thinking, Wow, they

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Speaker 1: really are treating him unfairly, Like does the needle move

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Speaker 1: either way depending on which side of the coin you're

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Speaker 1: looking at. Yeah, that's a good question. I think the

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Speaker 1: answer is we don't know. I mean, you're right, I

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Speaker 1: think sort of the first impression or first instinct is

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Speaker 1: that this, this rate in particular, is not going to

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00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: really change any minds. If you you know, before the rate,

431
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 1: you know hated Donald Trump and think, you know, he

432
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 1: should be in jail. This you know, this rate will

433
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 1: just reinforce it that he's you know, um deserved ing

434
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 1: of being rated. Um. But if you were, like you said,

435
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 1: a Trump supporter, Um, you know, the ray will just

436
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,680
Speaker 1: reinforce the idea that the Democrats are out to get him.

437
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: I think the question is does it does it motivate

438
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 1: anybody to vote who otherwise might not be inspired to

439
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 1: vote in the mid terms, particularly Republicans? You know, does

440
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: this sort of get you know, a Republican voter off

441
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 1: the couch he thinks, well, yeah, you know, it really

442
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 1: is important that I vote in this selection because again,

443
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: the Democrats are out to get the Republicans and Donald Trump.

444
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,439
Speaker 1: So it's not a matter of winning hearts and minds

445
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,640
Speaker 1: as it is just getting people out to the polls,

446
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 1: increasing that that appearance of the polls right in particular

447
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 1: in some of these key midterm races, um, you know,

448
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: where you know, swing voters could could matter and in

449
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 1: determining the outcome of who wins and you know, ultimately

450
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: who controls you know, Congress. Looking ahead though, could this

451
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,880
Speaker 1: possibly motivate Donald Trump to announce a run for president

452
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 1: sooner rather than later? I know there was a debate

453
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 1: amongst some of his supporters saying, no, no, no, you

454
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 1: want to wait because of the financial implications and the

455
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 1: the debts that you might have to pay off. What

456
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 1: would be the advantage of announcing sooner because of the

457
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 1: search by the FBI. Yeah, you're right, there's there's some

458
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,120
Speaker 1: in his world that are calling for him to announce immediately.

459
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 1: Steve Bannon, for for one, UM, he's saying, you know,

460
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 1: President should fly down to Marrow Largo today and and

461
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 1: announced he's running. Um. There's some thought that you know,

462
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 1: this would help him, UM by sort of capitalizing on

463
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 1: on the raid and say well, hey, I'm fighting back.

464
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 1: And and also you know, there's there's some thought that

465
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: you know, if he's a an announced candidate for president,

466
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: it makes it harder for um, these various investigations to

467
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 1: to touch him. You know, that the idea that it

468
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: would be harder to prosecute a you know, uh, an

469
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 1: actual federal candidate rather than somebody who just talked about

470
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 1: running for office. But there's still you know, a big

471
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 1: push against Trump doing that. A lot of Republicans feel

472
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: like if if Donald Trump announced that he's running in

473
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 1: today that this would actually hurt Republicans efforts to retake

474
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: control of the House and the Senate in the midterm elections.

475
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 1: Republicans very much want to run on um skyrocketing inflation

476
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 1: and crime and issues they think and they could really

477
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: use against Democrats and make the midterm races about that.

478
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 1: And if Donald Trump is running for president, the fear

479
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 1: is that could just energize Democrats, you know, particularly some

480
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: of these swinging independent voters who don't like Trump, to

481
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 1: get out and vote UM and distract from the attempts

482
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 1: by Republicans to use inflation in the economy against Democrats. So,

483
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 1: you know, the Democrats would very much like the races

484
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: to be about Donald Trump and not you know, some

485
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: of the issues they're fighting. And we are talking with

486
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 1: Bloomberg National political reporter Mark Niquet about former President Trump's

487
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 1: legal problems and how that could impact voters. Now, Mark,

488
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 1: you are in Ohio. You've covered presidential campaigns, including the

489
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 1: Trump campaign in twenties six, and you've been tracking these investigations.

490
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: I'm curious about what it looks like inside the GOP

491
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 1: right now. Is there more of a split than we're

492
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 1: seeing publicly? Are those are those who may be laying

493
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: the groundwork for a post Trump GOP Actually was kind

494
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 1: of seeing the opposite where you know, we had, um,

495
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 1: some uncertainty before the the FBI raid about you know,

496
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 1: who would actually be willing to challenge Donald Trump in

497
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: if you ran on the Republican side. UM. You know,

498
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: we had potential Canadas like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, UM, UH,

499
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: Senator Tom Cotton, UM, former UN Ambassador UH, Nikki Hayley,

500
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 1: you know, all out there sort of laying the groundwork

501
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 1: for a potential run, but unclear if they would actually

502
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 1: challenge Trump if he ran. UM. And with this this raid,

503
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 1: I think you've seen sort of a rallying around Donald Trump.

504
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: You know, immediately after the raid, UM, you saw virtually

505
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: all of the potential Republican presidential candidates, including Ronda Santis

506
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 1: UM putting out tweets and statements supporting Trump and calling

507
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 1: this raid you know, politically motivated and and and the like,

508
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: UM sort of suggesting that they feel like Trump still

509
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: is the king of the GOP and you know they

510
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 1: needed to be out front, you know, supporting him on

511
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 1: this raid. So I think it raises the question does

512
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: this make it more difficult? UM? For any of these

513
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: candidates to actually challenge Trump. If Trump announces for again,

514
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 1: I think part of what happens when we have a

515
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: big news event like this is a goal. We want

516
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 1: to analyze it and you know, decide determinatively what what

517
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: what it means and what the impact is going to be.

518
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 1: But I think we really have to wait to see

519
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: what the gist of the investigation is and what evidence

520
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: actually does come out of this again, so they will

521
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: determine what the public perception of whether the UH search

522
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: of a former president's home was justified. And looking forward,

523
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 1: there are more primaries ahead marked including in Wyoming. Everybody's

524
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: watching that one rep. Senaitive, Liz Cheney is expected to

525
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 1: lose her seat, But I don't know that it is

526
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 1: a foregone conclusion. Let's just do a what if? What

527
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: if Cheney does lose? What comes next for her? Well,

528
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 1: there's some thought that she might use this as a

529
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 1: springboard to to run for president that um, you know,

530
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 1: she's committed, if nothing else, to seeing that Donald Trump

531
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 1: does not get re elected president or even win the

532
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 1: Republican nomination. Um. So you know, there's some thinking that

533
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,239
Speaker 1: you know, even a loss in in this Wyoming race

534
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 1: could sort of make her a martyr for the cause

535
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 1: that she's defending truth and um, you know, pursuing a

536
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: righteous path. Um. You know, the big question I think

537
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 1: we have about that race is, you know, how many

538
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 1: Democrats and Independence cross over to to vote for Cheney. Um.

539
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 1: I mean the polls suggests that, you know, she's gonna lose,

540
00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:00,239
Speaker 1: and she's gonna lose big, and that Republicans overwhelmingly do

541
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: not support her and support her opponent, Harriet Hagman. But

542
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: Wyoming is one of these states where it's a sort

543
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 1: of open primary where anybody can go in and ask

544
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 1: for the Republican ballot. And you know, there's signs that

545
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: you know a lot of Democrats and Independence are interested

546
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 1: in supporting Hamen like that she's taking on Donald Trump,

547
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 1: and could um, you know, pull the Republican ballot and

548
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 1: I could sort of skew the the outcome. And if

549
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 1: there's enough of these um folks who are crossing over,

550
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: it could make the race a lot closer than we

551
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 1: think or that the polls right now are suggesting. All right, Mark,

552
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: I want to thank you for taking the time with us.

553
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: We're going to be watching those results with you, Thanks

554
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: so much. Thank you. Mark Niquette covers Congress for Bloomberg News,

555
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: and that is what is going on in the nation's capital.

556
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 1: For more of our political news coverage, tune into Balance

557
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 1: of Power with David Weston weekdays at noon Wall Street Time,

558
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 1: and Sound On with Joe Matthew weekdays at five pm

559
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 1: Wall Street Time. Right here on Bloomberg Radio, I'm Amy Morris.

560
00:31:56,680 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg John, Amy Morris for hoarding from our

561
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg room in Washington. Thanks a lot, Amy, and that

562
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 1: does it for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join

563
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 1: us again Monday morning at five am All Street Time

564
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 1: for the latest on markets overseas and the news you

565
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 1: need to start your today. I'm John Tucker and this

566
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg