WEBVTT - Dysfunctional Bond-Market May Be Worse Than 2008 0:00:02.640 --> 0:00:05.320 Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you 0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:07.760 along with my co host Lisa Brahmas. Each day we 0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:10.399 bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for you 0:00:10.520 --> 0:00:12.600 and your money, whether at the grocery store or the 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:15.920 trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple podcast 0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:18.000 or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as that 0:00:18.040 --> 0:00:21.160 Bloomberg dot com. Paul, We've been talking a lot about 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:23.599 the lack of liquidity in the treasury market, and I 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:26.560 wanted to give some context. Uh, it's more than thirteen 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:29.280 or fourteen trillion dollar market at this point. It is 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:33.919 considered the deepest, most liquid US bond market, and probably 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:36.400 any bond market, and it sets the rates for everything 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:39.479 from mortgages to auto loans to corporate debt and is 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:43.559 relied upon as a haven asset in tumultuous times. It 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.519 has not behaved that way. Yields have been all over 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:50.440 the place, jumping record amounts following record amounts, and this 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:53.880 has led to a lot of profound concerns about the 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:58.800 structure of such a crucial market to every financial instrument. 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:02.200 Jim Bianco of Bianco Research tweeted out this morning I 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:05.640 cannot emphasize enough how dysfunctional the bond market has become. 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:07.959 It is at least as bad as two thousand and eight, 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:11.080 and probably worse. The dealers are barely making bids. This 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:15.120 includes US treasuries and European sovereign bond markets are collapsing. 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:17.680 And he goes on from there, He joins us, Now, 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.560 I'm very glad to say from Chicago, Jim, can you 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:23.880 just get started, Why is it so concerning to see 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:28.479 this level of dysfunctionality and the treasury market? Because I 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:33.040 think it's very level. It's not reflecting the true reality 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:36.759 of where we think the fair value of decent prices 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:40.480 should be. UM, let me back up and say, what's 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:45.319 happened here in a nutshell is the virus hits. It 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:48.800 is cause markets to want to reprice to some new 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:52.400 reality that they think is coming post virus world of 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:57.320 more inflation, slower growth, lower multiples. The dealers step in 0:01:57.400 --> 0:02:00.240 and they do their bid where they make markets I 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:04.400 want to sell. They're willing to buy. Everybody swamped them 0:02:04.440 --> 0:02:07.320 so much selling and they bought as much as they could. 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:11.480 They can't buy anymore, and so now the market is 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:15.640 somewhat stuck. It's now not liquid. I can't buy, I 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:18.120 can't sell. There's technically some buying and selling going on, 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:21.600 but not nearly the amount that they want. The FED 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:25.120 is stepped in and said, we recognize the situation. We 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:28.359 will provide the dealers with more cash so they can 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:32.520 buy more securities. The problem is, in the post crisis world, 0:02:33.120 --> 0:02:36.960 we have created a myriad of rules on the dealers 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:40.880 to not leverage themselves up expand their balance sheets by 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:43.640 taking more cash, because that was what caused the two 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:47.400 eight crisis. And it isn't just the FED saying we 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:48.840 have to get rid of our rules to let the 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:50.480 dealers do this. They have to get to b I 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:53.880 S Basil three, the fd I C and the whole 0:02:53.919 --> 0:02:56.280 off of that soup of regulators to agree to it. 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:59.840 And that's not easy to do. So that so the 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:06.200 bond market is somewhat dysfunctional. So anybody that needs money prices, 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:10.399 anybody that needs to do transactions, it's becoming very difficult 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:13.239 to do it in the market, and it's not really 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:17.520 getting better. Jim, do you think there is a viable solution, 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:20.000 even if it were to be a short term solution 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:22.959 to this issue, to get us through this crisis. Well, 0:03:23.120 --> 0:03:27.000 there's there's The viable solution would probably be if there 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.320 was some kind of a rule change that would allow 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:34.000 the dealers to expand their balance sheets. Now, the risk 0:03:34.120 --> 0:03:37.880 with that is all right, here, dealers, here's more money. 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:41.120 You can now start making markets. They immediately start making 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:45.160 markets at far lower prices than we see right now, 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:49.280 which then becomes a problem. Ironically, this might be holding 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:54.240 prices higher than they would normally be. There totally prices 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:56.960 higher than they would normally be because they can't they 0:03:57.000 --> 0:04:01.120 can't make those prices at much lower prices, So it's 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:05.080 not a good situation. The best situation would be that 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:10.320 the marketplace understands that we have now found some kind 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:14.360 of a limit to the virus. They now believe that 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:19.880 these prices are near fair value, and regular institutions step 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:22.440 up and say I will buy them at this price, 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:26.640 not just the dealers. That would settle things down. So 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.960 if you want me to say, simply, what would help 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:33.760 the market, a million tests, because a million tests would 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:37.680 help us understand the scope of this problem, because right 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:40.880 now it feels like it's just this open ended problem 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:43.839 that's just getting worse by the day. Which is why 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.840 these markets are so dysfunctional, and it's also making it 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.839 very difficult to read into some of the moves that 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:52.880 we've seen in the levels of yields that previously were 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:56.920 used as gaugs for the economy and financial conditions. I'm 0:04:56.920 --> 0:05:00.600 looking right now, a listener writes in, and he wanted 0:05:00.640 --> 0:05:04.159 me to ask you about one month T bills because 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:06.800 the rate has actually gone negative. We are looking at 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:10.640 in the United States, the rate for four months four 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:14.440 week T bills is now negative point oh four percent. 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:19.880 How is that possible? Considering the fact that FED chair J. 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:22.240 Powell has said that he does not want to play 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:24.919 a negative yielding policy. They did drop rates to zero, 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:28.560 but they're not planning to go negative in the near future. 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:31.760 They're not planning to go negative. But let me just 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:34.520 put it mechanically for you. A T bill is a 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:40.200 discount rate security, so you pay point six for it 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:44.520 and in a month you get one dollar. Well, there's 0:05:44.560 --> 0:05:48.200 so much money exiting stocks and bonds and commodities, in 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:51.160 gold and everything else, and it needs to hide somewhere 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:55.280 that they're buying one month T bills as a placeholder 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:58.839 for that money that they're not paying over one dollar 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:02.960 to one dollar in the future, which is how you 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:05.920 wind up with negative interest rates. So it's a sign 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:09.440 of people looking for a place to put their money 0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:14.560 after they've liquidated something, and they're paying big premiums for 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:17.760 them right now. Now, remember the negative interest rates are 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:20.200 like negative one or negative two basis points. They're not 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:25.440 seriously negative like we've seen um in Europe. So Jim, 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:27.920 just give us, you know, a thirty second call from 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:31.520 you on what we're seeing beginning to emerge. Uh fisth 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:34.440 scal stimulus by this White House and by Congress. What's 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:38.840 your take? Um, whatever they do is not going to 0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:42.240 be enough. I joked yesterday that we started the day 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:44.279 with eight fifty billion and we ended the day at 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:46.839 one point to trillion. That that is actually growing faster 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:50.400 than the virus counts right now. And I think when 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:52.400 you start looking at what some of the European countries 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:55.120 are doing talking about nine or ten percent of their 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:59.760 GDP and stimulus, we're talking two trillion dollars plus that 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:02.719 probably will get into the ballpark range of what I 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:05.960 think is probably needed. So they're getting there, but they're 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:10.280 taking way too much time right now. Jim Bianco, thanks 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:13.720 so much for joining us. We really appreciate your thoughts there. 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:17.520 Jim Bianco, President and founder of Bianco Research getting his 0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:19.560 thoughts least, It's always good to get Jim's thoughts. He's 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:22.680 been I think consistently uh let's call it, you know, 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:26.040 conservative and kind of his outlook. He's been right, he's 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:28.280 been right. Just let's just call it, call a spade 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:29.800 a spade. I mean, he basically said the fedge and 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:32.160 drop rates zero, and they did, and they did in 0:07:32.240 --> 0:07:35.080 short order. And I will say the fact that I'm 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:38.080 just so struck by the idea that investors are paying 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:42.160 for the privilege to receive dollars in four weeks time 0:07:42.600 --> 0:07:45.119 because of the dollar shortage, and because of the fact 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:48.240 that people are that concerned about cash preservation and the 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:51.640 emphasis on liquidity. I think that that really speaks to 0:07:51.680 --> 0:07:56.080 the mood of the moment. I want to pick up 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:58.000 on the point that you were talking about the tumbling 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:02.200 commercial mortgage read values, because that's exactly where we're going 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:05.800 to brick and mortar, in particular, the shopping mall. Whither 0:08:05.920 --> 0:08:10.040 the shopping mall in a post coronavirus Eratomacke President, chief 0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:13.920 executive officer of the International Council of Shopping Centers joining 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:18.280 us right now, how about is it out there? Tom, Well, 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:21.120 good morning and thanks for having me on first and 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:26.040 foremost health and safety. DU it's a challenging environment. Obviously, 0:08:26.080 --> 0:08:31.240 the government is is taking unprecedented steps and appropriate steps too, 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:35.839 you know, to protect everyone's health and safety. But that's placing, 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:39.880 you know, really kind of an insurmountable strain on our members. 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:44.079 And i C s C represents not just the mall industry, 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:46.840 but all brick and mortar retail as well as the 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:49.920 tenants that occupy the space. And so you know, our 0:08:49.960 --> 0:08:54.280 request to the government is to either guarantee or directly 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:59.160 support business interruption insurance in the interim, in the in 0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:03.280 the immediate term for the industry. So Tom, again, you 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:07.160 represent the shopping centers around the United States. Just give 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:10.120 us a state of health of where they are right 0:09:10.160 --> 0:09:14.560 now going into this crisis. Well, obviously, you know, the 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:18.120 industry going into the going into the crisis, I think 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:21.600 was relatively healthy. Um. You know, obviously there are some 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:24.680 large macro trends that were impacting the industry around e 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:29.000 commerce and technology in general and demographics. But I think 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:32.720 the industry had evolved to really try to to curate 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:35.800 his tenant mix to meet the changing needs of consumers. 0:09:36.640 --> 0:09:40.160 But everything's changed over the course of the last um, 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:42.839 you know, week or two uh and and changes by 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:45.439 the hour. And we're clearly in a very dire situation 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:49.840 right now. As people protect their health and safety appropriately 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:53.120 and stay home and and don't go out to public places. 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:57.600 That's obviously having a dramatic impact upon retailers and bars 0:09:57.640 --> 0:10:01.280 and restaurants, gyms and service for writers and all the 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.600 folks that occupy shopping centers, whether that's a neighborhood grocery 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:09.120 center or a regional mall uh and um you know. 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:12.240 And by the way, our industry is here and ready 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:16.320 to support the government's actions. Have obviously have large parking 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:20.280 lots and some unoccupied space that could be used for 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:24.600 emergency shelter and healthcare purposes. But we do need the 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:28.199 government to step in and support the industry and provide 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:33.280 business and terruption insurance guarantee to Some people have been 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:38.439 arguing the disruptions like this, crises like this accelerate changes 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:42.280 that are already in effect, and some people are saying 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:47.160 the shift to Amazon to online ordering and shipping is 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:50.920 really just getting accelerated. But that trend was in place before. 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:52.920 What do you say to that, to the people who 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:55.440 say this is just sort of speeding up what we 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:59.440 already saw in retail in in brick and mortar, Well, 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:01.520 you know, first and foremost, I don't know that we 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:05.720 can make any type of long term UH pronostications around 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:08.040 the impact of the virus and the crisis that we're 0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:11.600 living through. This is unprecedented, so it's it's really hard 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:15.400 to anticipate what tomorrow is going to bring, let alone 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:19.199 three to six months from now, but the the industry 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:23.640 is enormous. Of all retail sales still happened within brick 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:27.640 and mortar, Retail shopping centers are integral to every community. 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:31.199 Lets people drive down the main street of their other towns, 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:34.840 um that is generally the center of the community. And 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:38.160 so there's a lot of attention that's often placed upon 0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:40.920 a segment of the industry, But when you really think 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:45.480 about physical retail UH and what it provides and supports 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:48.480 to the community, it's kind of integral to everyday life. 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:52.520 And so I the industry was not dying before this, UH, 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:56.880 it was it was changing and evolving. UH. This is 0:11:56.920 --> 0:12:01.960 just an unprecedented event. It's obviously going to have a 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:06.120 significant and his having a significantly a dire impact upon 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:08.400 an industry that we all rely upon every day, and 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:10.200 by the way, the communities RelA upon it. I mean, 0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:12.520 it's the biggest source of the industries, the biggest source 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:15.760 of jobs in America. It's the biggest source of sales 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:21.600 and property tax revenue that supports you know, community infrastructure, etcetera. Right, 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:23.720 Tom McGee, thanks so much for joining us. Thomas President, 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:27.000 chief executive Officer of the International Council of Shopping Centers 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.240 again the that organization and Tom send a letter to 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:34.959 President Trump asking for some economic relief as the stay 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:39.520 at home movement expands, obviously impacting a local real UH 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:46.679 retailers across the board. This is bloomberg. Well, in the 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:49.720 never ending news cycle that we seem to be in. 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:52.199 Some more big news this morning, President Trump saying that 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:55.720 the U. S. And Canada will UH mutually ex closed 0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:58.200 the border after the virus spread. To get a sense 0:12:58.240 --> 0:12:59.840 of what this means and what else is going on 0:12:59.880 --> 0:13:02.040 in Washington and in the White House, we turned to 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:06.040 John wink Grove. John's Bloomberg White House reporter. Uh, joining 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:07.800 us on a phone, John, thanks so much. Give us 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:11.120 kind of what the latest reporting is about the US 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:14.960 kind of the border closing. Well, yeah, and I'm Canadian, 0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:18.600 so I'm I'm at the nexus of this one. So 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:21.560 the latest is Trudeau has been taking, believe it or not, 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:25.839 stronger measures than Trump to close the border, and there 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:28.000 is talk in Canada a couple of days ago saying, look, 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:30.920 it seems like Trudeau wants to close the border, but 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:33.599 Trump would get real ticked off and maybe close it 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:36.439 to trade in retaliation. So it seems like Trudeau is 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:39.280 getting what he wants, which is essentially a ban on 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:45.080 vacations and tourism and leisure travel between the countries, whereas 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:48.200 business travel and certainly the trade of goods would ostensibly 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:53.000 go uh, you know on effected. Uh, many question marks remain. 0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:55.360 We have no idea when this would take effect. We 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:58.200 don't know what counts as business travel. We don't know 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:01.080 what visa classes would still be permitted or would still 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:03.960 not be permitted. There's is an indefinite move, so of 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:05.600 course we don't know when it will end. That would 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:08.199 be subject to the virus. But you know, This is 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:13.120 a the massive border that you know, before eleven many 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:15.600 folks could cross even without a passport. You know, now 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:17.959 we're in a situation where they can't cross it at all. 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:19.680 What that effect is I don't know. I mean, how 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.080 many people are really still going on vacation in this 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:25.040 current era, but you know, it's still nonetheless a big move. 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:27.720 There's a question just about the state of play of 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:29.600 all the borders that have closed so far. Can you 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:32.120 just bring us up to speed, uh, what we know 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:35.880 as far as what type of restrictions they're currently are 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:38.280 with the US and other countries. I mean, you talk 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:40.320 about how people don't really want to go on vacation. 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.880 Certainly people have been trying to come back from vacation 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.480 in order to hunker down and and what is it 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:51.480 shelter in place? Yeah, self isolate, self isolated, socially, socially distance, 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:57.200 self isolate, shelter in place fun times hashtag Yeah, like 0:14:57.320 --> 0:15:00.280 right now, it depends on where you're going and where 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:03.520 you're coming back to the biggest restrictions that Trump has 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:07.160 put in on China and then later Europe. If you've 0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:10.760 been in any one of a certain number of European countries. Uh, 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:15.080 he had the UK most recently. Uh, if you're feign 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:16.800 national has been in those countries, got allowed in the 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:19.320 US at all. But if you're an American you can 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:21.320 come back, but they're gonna ask you itself by slates 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:23.960 for fourteen days, whereas other countries they're not making that 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:27.040 request at all. And there's been reporting that Trump is 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:31.440 looking at somehow further restricting the southern border with Mexico, 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:34.600 and you know, warning that there might be some sort 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:37.960 of I guess spike of folks fleeing the virus all 0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:41.920 to Mexico. Frankly doesn't seem to be having a widespread problem. 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:44.320 This is state tis right now, So I think that's 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.400 be an open question is to whether that's legit. But 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.360 he is looking to close borders. I mean, this is 0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:53.160 this guy's reflex move for sure. I mean, you know, 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:56.280 he believes that the American borders are too open, and 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:58.520 you know, not an issue has gone by that he 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:02.800 has not used as an opportunity to look at further restrictions. 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:06.120 And the coronavirus is no different. Hey, Josh, you know 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:09.200 it's it appears to a lot of observers that the 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:11.240 President Trump in the White House, the tone towards the 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.640 coronavirus took a big turn several days ago, even though 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:16.480 the White House is suggesting that was not the case, 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:18.800 it was more of an evil evolutionary type type thing. 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:21.080 What is the feeling inside the Beltway as to what 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:23.520 really turned the White House to say, boy, we've got 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:26.560 a big problem here. There's a couple of series. One 0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:28.760 is that they got some data from the UK about 0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:31.240 a model they talked about getting a new model over 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:34.240 the weekend. That basically scared them a little bit. Um. 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:36.680 But I mean, the tone absolutely changed. I know Trump 0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:40.040 is denying that it is, but I mean their tone changed, 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:42.080 and their tone changed on Monday, and now they're taking 0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:44.440 really seriously. Remember it wasn't too long ago that Trump 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:48.320 wanted two and a half billion dollars for coronavirus response 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:52.920 and now it's seeking a trillion dollars. So you know, 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:56.360 give you a sense two billion to one trillion, that's 0:16:56.360 --> 0:16:58.880 how much the tone has changed. And here in d C. 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:01.280 It's like a ghost town, you know. And so we've 0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:03.480 got the Senate still meaning trying to figure out what 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:05.520 they're gonna do. Are they going to pass the House bill? 0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:08.840 That they're going to expand the House bill. We don't 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:12.280 know the timeline on that Senator is frankly, that group 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:15.760 includes a bunch of older folks or not social distancing 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:19.560 while they're doing this. So there's urgency to this issue, 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:21.159 and I think I think the Senate realized that, I 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.320 think all of Washington realizes that we're not seeing a 0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:25.959 lot of my partisan divide on this issue. Yeah, and 0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:28.119 it's definitely like a ghost town here as well. What 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:30.919 Josh ridden wind Grove, please stay safe. Thank you for 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:33.920 being with us. Josh wyn Grove, White House correspondent for 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:37.960 Bloomberg News. Really interesting right now to see some of 0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:40.680 the developments. Mayor to Blasio of New York City coming 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:42.719 out and saying that the United that that that New 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:47.600 York has almost a thousand diagnosed cases of coronavirus asking 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:51.800 for help from the military in order to contain individuals, 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:54.320 would also detest individuals. I know that they're going to 0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:58.320 be ships possibly coming and testing people with ventilators and 0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:02.639 trying to make sure that the respe bonds time is accurate. Paul, 0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:06.520 A real concern here about the hospital system and the 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:10.639 capacity given the number of beds, given the hospitalization rates 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:17.639 and given just how contagious this virus is, Lisa, I 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:19.040 think what people are trying to one of things they're 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:20.600 trying to get ahold of here is just kind of 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:23.440 the kind of where are we in the curve of 0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:28.600 the additional cases. Dr Paul Getford, professor in the Division 0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:31.400 Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama, Birmingham and also 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:35.520 a director of the Alabama Vaccine Research Clinics, joins us. Now, uh, 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:37.800 Dr Getford, give us your sense of kind of where 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:40.399 we are in the curve of new cases in the 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:45.399 United States. Well, unfortunately, we're in the rising part of 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.920 the curve. If you look at any of the estimates 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:51.800 um or any of the curving trends, there's no leveling 0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:54.480 off right now. So we still haven't begun to level 0:18:54.520 --> 0:18:58.680 off yet. So we're I guess what we're We're We're 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:02.359 at the sort of lug and they've logarithmic growth phase 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:05.400 of the curve, which is a little bit frightening considering 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:08.000 the fact that Mayor de Blasio here in New York 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:11.120 is asking for military assistance as he sees the cases 0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:14.520 absolutely surge with a nearly a thousand confirmed cases and 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:17.120 we've all had anecdotes about people having a hard time 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:19.320 getting a test who think that they have the symptoms. 0:19:19.359 --> 0:19:22.159 So the likely tally has probably quite a bit higher 0:19:22.440 --> 0:19:26.600 given how quickly the number of cases is rising the 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:30.040 logarithmic scale. How many people in the United States do 0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:32.120 you think, I mean, what proportion do you think will 0:19:32.200 --> 0:19:38.159 end up getting this virus? Well? I think, Um, it 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:42.280 all depends on our response to this epidemic on pandemic. 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:47.320 If we take if everybody takes seriously the whole part 0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:50.760 about social isolation and don't does not go out unless 0:19:50.800 --> 0:19:55.120 they absolutely have to. Um. And the people who need 0:19:55.200 --> 0:19:59.800 to go to work or people who are needed to 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:04.040 have a functioning society, um, so healthcare workers, police ambulance, 0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:07.480 so on and so forth. Um, if we do that, 0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:10.760 then we'll the numbers will be a lot less. I 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:12.679 can tell you that we're on the same trajectory as 0:20:12.720 --> 0:20:17.120 Italy right now. Italy currently has thirty cases and they're 0:20:17.160 --> 0:20:21.280 still growing. Um, And so it doesn't look good. Um. 0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:23.879 We we are a larger country than Italy, so we 0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:25.840 may be able to handle that a little bit better. 0:20:25.960 --> 0:20:31.040 But um, that's still not a great sign. So there's 0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:35.520 been estimates, I'm sorry, extreme estimates if we did nothing 0:20:35.560 --> 0:20:37.879 at all, or we don't even want to think about 0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:41.359 that because we are finally doing something. So Dr Gepford 0:20:41.440 --> 0:20:43.480 gives a sense a kind of kind of how you 0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:45.800 think this will play out. It looks like the federal 0:20:45.800 --> 0:20:50.240 government is really mobilizing. UM, so do you expect it? 0:20:50.359 --> 0:20:52.320 Just is this really a story right now? If just 0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:56.560 getting test kits into is widthy disseminate as possible to 0:20:56.560 --> 0:20:58.520 get a real handle on kind of what the numbers are. 0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:00.600 Is that do you think is the most critical issue 0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:05.359 right now? Well, that is, um, that's one of the 0:21:05.359 --> 0:21:09.560 critical issues. That's very important. I think it's fair to 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:13.320 say now that it's inundated our society and that people 0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:17.560 need to not worked for a test. If they have 0:21:18.200 --> 0:21:23.119 the symptoms UM, then they need to self quarantine. Uh. 0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:26.439 And I've had many people here where I am in Alabama, 0:21:26.480 --> 0:21:28.240 which has been sort of late in the game, and 0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:31.239 again it's because we haven't had the tests here. We 0:21:31.240 --> 0:21:33.439 were one of the last states to actually have a test. 0:21:34.600 --> 0:21:36.920 We've gone from one case less than a week ago 0:21:37.040 --> 0:21:41.080 to forty six cases today. So that's a huge growth. 0:21:41.080 --> 0:21:44.720 And I have a lot of patients and employees who 0:21:44.720 --> 0:21:48.520 are starting to develop symptoms. Now, we even have one 0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:51.720 of our lead infectious disease doctors here in town that 0:21:52.680 --> 0:21:56.000 who started our HIV clinic many years ago, who tested 0:21:56.040 --> 0:22:00.480 positive for coronavirus. So it's in our society the I 0:22:00.520 --> 0:22:03.280 think people need to realize that if they get sick 0:22:03.320 --> 0:22:05.280 at all, the best thing for them to do is 0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:10.880 self quarantine, unless they started, you know, developing respiratory difficulties, 0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:12.679 in which case they probably need to go to the 0:22:12.680 --> 0:22:16.679 emergency department. Dr Gepford. Given the fact, I will just 0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:20.760 say that testing is important because there are it's likely 0:22:20.760 --> 0:22:24.840 that there are many people who are not developing symptoms 0:22:25.440 --> 0:22:27.800 and people who have been exposed. That would be important 0:22:27.800 --> 0:22:29.359 as well. But we're not able to do any of 0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:33.399 that right now because the testing is so um we 0:22:33.480 --> 0:22:35.240 have so few tests to be able to do that. 0:22:35.880 --> 0:22:38.960 Dr Eepford, you do your professor in the Division of 0:22:39.000 --> 0:22:42.280 Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama in Birmingham. You're 0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:45.399