1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,760 Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahmas. Each day we 3 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:10,399 Speaker 1: bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for you 4 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: and your money, whether at the grocery store or the 5 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple podcast 6 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as that 7 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. Paul, We've been talking a lot about 8 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: the lack of liquidity in the treasury market, and I 9 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: wanted to give some context. Uh, it's more than thirteen 10 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 1: or fourteen trillion dollar market at this point. It is 11 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 1: considered the deepest, most liquid US bond market, and probably 12 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: any bond market, and it sets the rates for everything 13 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 1: from mortgages to auto loans to corporate debt and is 14 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 1: relied upon as a haven asset in tumultuous times. It 15 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: has not behaved that way. Yields have been all over 16 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: the place, jumping record amounts following record amounts, and this 17 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: has led to a lot of profound concerns about the 18 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 1: structure of such a crucial market to every financial instrument. 19 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 1: Jim Bianco of Bianco Research tweeted out this morning I 20 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 1: cannot emphasize enough how dysfunctional the bond market has become. 21 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 1: It is at least as bad as two thousand and eight, 22 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 1: and probably worse. The dealers are barely making bids. This 23 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 1: includes US treasuries and European sovereign bond markets are collapsing. 24 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 1: And he goes on from there, He joins us, Now, 25 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 1: I'm very glad to say from Chicago, Jim, can you 26 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 1: just get started, Why is it so concerning to see 27 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:28,479 Speaker 1: this level of dysfunctionality and the treasury market? Because I 28 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 1: think it's very level. It's not reflecting the true reality 29 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,759 Speaker 1: of where we think the fair value of decent prices 30 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,480 Speaker 1: should be. UM, let me back up and say, what's 31 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: happened here in a nutshell is the virus hits. It 32 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: is cause markets to want to reprice to some new 33 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: reality that they think is coming post virus world of 34 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: more inflation, slower growth, lower multiples. The dealers step in 35 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 1: and they do their bid where they make markets I 36 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 1: want to sell. They're willing to buy. Everybody swamped them 37 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: so much selling and they bought as much as they could. 38 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 1: They can't buy anymore, and so now the market is 39 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 1: somewhat stuck. It's now not liquid. I can't buy, I 40 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: can't sell. There's technically some buying and selling going on, 41 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: but not nearly the amount that they want. The FED 42 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: is stepped in and said, we recognize the situation. We 43 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 1: will provide the dealers with more cash so they can 44 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: buy more securities. The problem is, in the post crisis world, 45 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 1: we have created a myriad of rules on the dealers 46 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: to not leverage themselves up expand their balance sheets by 47 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: taking more cash, because that was what caused the two 48 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: eight crisis. And it isn't just the FED saying we 49 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 1: have to get rid of our rules to let the 50 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 1: dealers do this. They have to get to b I 51 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: S Basil three, the fd I C and the whole 52 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 1: off of that soup of regulators to agree to it. 53 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: And that's not easy to do. So that so the 54 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: bond market is somewhat dysfunctional. So anybody that needs money prices, 55 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:10,399 Speaker 1: anybody that needs to do transactions, it's becoming very difficult 56 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,239 Speaker 1: to do it in the market, and it's not really 57 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: getting better. Jim, do you think there is a viable solution, 58 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: even if it were to be a short term solution 59 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,959 Speaker 1: to this issue, to get us through this crisis. Well, 60 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: there's there's The viable solution would probably be if there 61 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: was some kind of a rule change that would allow 62 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: the dealers to expand their balance sheets. Now, the risk 63 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: with that is all right, here, dealers, here's more money. 64 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: You can now start making markets. They immediately start making 65 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: markets at far lower prices than we see right now, 66 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: which then becomes a problem. Ironically, this might be holding 67 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: prices higher than they would normally be. There totally prices 68 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 1: higher than they would normally be because they can't they 69 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: can't make those prices at much lower prices, So it's 70 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: not a good situation. The best situation would be that 71 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: the marketplace understands that we have now found some kind 72 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: of a limit to the virus. They now believe that 73 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 1: these prices are near fair value, and regular institutions step 74 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: up and say I will buy them at this price, 75 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: not just the dealers. That would settle things down. So 76 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 1: if you want me to say, simply, what would help 77 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 1: the market, a million tests, because a million tests would 78 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: help us understand the scope of this problem, because right 79 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: now it feels like it's just this open ended problem 80 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: that's just getting worse by the day. Which is why 81 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: these markets are so dysfunctional, and it's also making it 82 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 1: very difficult to read into some of the moves that 83 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: we've seen in the levels of yields that previously were 84 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:56,920 Speaker 1: used as gaugs for the economy and financial conditions. I'm 85 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 1: looking right now, a listener writes in, and he wanted 86 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: me to ask you about one month T bills because 87 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: the rate has actually gone negative. We are looking at 88 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: in the United States, the rate for four months four 89 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: week T bills is now negative point oh four percent. 90 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: How is that possible? Considering the fact that FED chair J. 91 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 1: Powell has said that he does not want to play 92 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:24,919 Speaker 1: a negative yielding policy. They did drop rates to zero, 93 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 1: but they're not planning to go negative in the near future. 94 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: They're not planning to go negative. But let me just 95 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: put it mechanically for you. A T bill is a 96 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: discount rate security, so you pay point six for it 97 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: and in a month you get one dollar. Well, there's 98 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 1: so much money exiting stocks and bonds and commodities, in 99 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 1: gold and everything else, and it needs to hide somewhere 100 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 1: that they're buying one month T bills as a placeholder 101 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: for that money that they're not paying over one dollar 102 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: to one dollar in the future, which is how you 103 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 1: wind up with negative interest rates. So it's a sign 104 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: of people looking for a place to put their money 105 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: after they've liquidated something, and they're paying big premiums for 106 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: them right now. Now, remember the negative interest rates are 107 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: like negative one or negative two basis points. They're not 108 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 1: seriously negative like we've seen um in Europe. So Jim, 109 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 1: just give us, you know, a thirty second call from 110 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: you on what we're seeing beginning to emerge. Uh fisth 111 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: scal stimulus by this White House and by Congress. What's 112 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 1: your take? Um, whatever they do is not going to 113 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 1: be enough. I joked yesterday that we started the day 114 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: with eight fifty billion and we ended the day at 115 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,839 Speaker 1: one point to trillion. That that is actually growing faster 116 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: than the virus counts right now. And I think when 117 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: you start looking at what some of the European countries 118 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: are doing talking about nine or ten percent of their 119 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: GDP and stimulus, we're talking two trillion dollars plus that 120 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 1: probably will get into the ballpark range of what I 121 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 1: think is probably needed. So they're getting there, but they're 122 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 1: taking way too much time right now. Jim Bianco, thanks 123 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. We really appreciate your thoughts there. 124 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: Jim Bianco, President and founder of Bianco Research getting his 125 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: thoughts least, It's always good to get Jim's thoughts. He's 126 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: been I think consistently uh let's call it, you know, 127 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: conservative and kind of his outlook. He's been right, he's 128 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: been right. Just let's just call it, call a spade 129 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: a spade. I mean, he basically said the fedge and 130 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 1: drop rates zero, and they did, and they did in 131 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 1: short order. And I will say the fact that I'm 132 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: just so struck by the idea that investors are paying 133 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: for the privilege to receive dollars in four weeks time 134 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,119 Speaker 1: because of the dollar shortage, and because of the fact 135 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 1: that people are that concerned about cash preservation and the 136 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: emphasis on liquidity. I think that that really speaks to 137 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 1: the mood of the moment. I want to pick up 138 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: on the point that you were talking about the tumbling 139 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: commercial mortgage read values, because that's exactly where we're going 140 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: to brick and mortar, in particular, the shopping mall. Whither 141 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: the shopping mall in a post coronavirus Eratomacke President, chief 142 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: executive officer of the International Council of Shopping Centers joining 143 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 1: us right now, how about is it out there? Tom, Well, 144 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 1: good morning and thanks for having me on first and 145 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 1: foremost health and safety. DU it's a challenging environment. Obviously, 146 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 1: the government is is taking unprecedented steps and appropriate steps too, 147 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,839 Speaker 1: you know, to protect everyone's health and safety. But that's placing, 148 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: you know, really kind of an insurmountable strain on our members. 149 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:44,079 Speaker 1: And i C s C represents not just the mall industry, 150 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 1: but all brick and mortar retail as well as the 151 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: tenants that occupy the space. And so you know, our 152 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: request to the government is to either guarantee or directly 153 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 1: support business interruption insurance in the interim, in the in 154 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: the immediate term for the industry. So Tom, again, you 155 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: represent the shopping centers around the United States. Just give 156 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: us a state of health of where they are right 157 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 1: now going into this crisis. Well, obviously, you know, the 158 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 1: industry going into the going into the crisis, I think 159 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: was relatively healthy. Um. You know, obviously there are some 160 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 1: large macro trends that were impacting the industry around e 161 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: commerce and technology in general and demographics. But I think 162 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: the industry had evolved to really try to to curate 163 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,800 Speaker 1: his tenant mix to meet the changing needs of consumers. 164 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: But everything's changed over the course of the last um, 165 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,839 Speaker 1: you know, week or two uh and and changes by 166 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 1: the hour. And we're clearly in a very dire situation 167 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: right now. As people protect their health and safety appropriately 168 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 1: and stay home and and don't go out to public places. 169 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: That's obviously having a dramatic impact upon retailers and bars 170 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: and restaurants, gyms and service for writers and all the 171 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: folks that occupy shopping centers, whether that's a neighborhood grocery 172 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 1: center or a regional mall uh and um you know. 173 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: And by the way, our industry is here and ready 174 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 1: to support the government's actions. Have obviously have large parking 175 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: lots and some unoccupied space that could be used for 176 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: emergency shelter and healthcare purposes. But we do need the 177 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 1: government to step in and support the industry and provide 178 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 1: business and terruption insurance guarantee to Some people have been 179 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:38,439 Speaker 1: arguing the disruptions like this, crises like this accelerate changes 180 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: that are already in effect, and some people are saying 181 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 1: the shift to Amazon to online ordering and shipping is 182 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: really just getting accelerated. But that trend was in place before. 183 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 1: What do you say to that, to the people who 184 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,440 Speaker 1: say this is just sort of speeding up what we 185 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 1: already saw in retail in in brick and mortar, Well, 186 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: you know, first and foremost, I don't know that we 187 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 1: can make any type of long term UH pronostications around 188 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: the impact of the virus and the crisis that we're 189 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 1: living through. This is unprecedented, so it's it's really hard 190 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: to anticipate what tomorrow is going to bring, let alone 191 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:19,199 Speaker 1: three to six months from now, but the the industry 192 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: is enormous. Of all retail sales still happened within brick 193 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: and mortar, Retail shopping centers are integral to every community. 194 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:31,199 Speaker 1: Lets people drive down the main street of their other towns, 195 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 1: um that is generally the center of the community. And 196 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 1: so there's a lot of attention that's often placed upon 197 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 1: a segment of the industry, But when you really think 198 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 1: about physical retail UH and what it provides and supports 199 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: to the community, it's kind of integral to everyday life. 200 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: And so I the industry was not dying before this, UH, 201 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 1: it was it was changing and evolving. UH. This is 202 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: just an unprecedented event. It's obviously going to have a 203 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 1: significant and his having a significantly a dire impact upon 204 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: an industry that we all rely upon every day, and 205 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 1: by the way, the communities RelA upon it. I mean, 206 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: it's the biggest source of the industries, the biggest source 207 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 1: of jobs in America. It's the biggest source of sales 208 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: and property tax revenue that supports you know, community infrastructure, etcetera. Right, 209 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 1: Tom McGee, thanks so much for joining us. Thomas President, 210 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: chief executive Officer of the International Council of Shopping Centers 211 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: again the that organization and Tom send a letter to 212 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 1: President Trump asking for some economic relief as the stay 213 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 1: at home movement expands, obviously impacting a local real UH 214 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:46,679 Speaker 1: retailers across the board. This is bloomberg. Well, in the 215 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: never ending news cycle that we seem to be in. 216 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,199 Speaker 1: Some more big news this morning, President Trump saying that 217 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 1: the U. S. And Canada will UH mutually ex closed 218 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 1: the border after the virus spread. To get a sense 219 00:12:58,240 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 1: of what this means and what else is going on 220 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: in Washington and in the White House, we turned to 221 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: John wink Grove. John's Bloomberg White House reporter. Uh, joining 222 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 1: us on a phone, John, thanks so much. Give us 223 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: kind of what the latest reporting is about the US 224 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 1: kind of the border closing. Well, yeah, and I'm Canadian, 225 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 1: so I'm I'm at the nexus of this one. So 226 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 1: the latest is Trudeau has been taking, believe it or not, 227 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 1: stronger measures than Trump to close the border, and there 228 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 1: is talk in Canada a couple of days ago saying, look, 229 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: it seems like Trudeau wants to close the border, but 230 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,599 Speaker 1: Trump would get real ticked off and maybe close it 231 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,439 Speaker 1: to trade in retaliation. So it seems like Trudeau is 232 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: getting what he wants, which is essentially a ban on 233 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 1: vacations and tourism and leisure travel between the countries, whereas 234 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: business travel and certainly the trade of goods would ostensibly 235 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: go uh, you know on effected. Uh, many question marks remain. 236 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 1: We have no idea when this would take effect. We 237 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 1: don't know what counts as business travel. We don't know 238 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: what visa classes would still be permitted or would still 239 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 1: not be permitted. There's is an indefinite move, so of 240 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: course we don't know when it will end. That would 241 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 1: be subject to the virus. But you know, This is 242 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: a the massive border that you know, before eleven many 243 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: folks could cross even without a passport. You know, now 244 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:17,959 Speaker 1: we're in a situation where they can't cross it at all. 245 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: What that effect is I don't know. I mean, how 246 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: many people are really still going on vacation in this 247 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 1: current era, but you know, it's still nonetheless a big move. 248 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 1: There's a question just about the state of play of 249 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: all the borders that have closed so far. Can you 250 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 1: just bring us up to speed, uh, what we know 251 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: as far as what type of restrictions they're currently are 252 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 1: with the US and other countries. I mean, you talk 253 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 1: about how people don't really want to go on vacation. 254 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 1: Certainly people have been trying to come back from vacation 255 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 1: in order to hunker down and and what is it 256 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 1: shelter in place? Yeah, self isolate, self isolated, socially, socially distance, 257 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: self isolate, shelter in place fun times hashtag Yeah, like 258 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: right now, it depends on where you're going and where 259 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: you're coming back to the biggest restrictions that Trump has 260 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 1: put in on China and then later Europe. If you've 261 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: been in any one of a certain number of European countries. Uh, 262 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 1: he had the UK most recently. Uh, if you're feign 263 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: national has been in those countries, got allowed in the 264 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: US at all. But if you're an American you can 265 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 1: come back, but they're gonna ask you itself by slates 266 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 1: for fourteen days, whereas other countries they're not making that 267 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 1: request at all. And there's been reporting that Trump is 268 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 1: looking at somehow further restricting the southern border with Mexico, 269 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 1: and you know, warning that there might be some sort 270 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: of I guess spike of folks fleeing the virus all 271 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 1: to Mexico. Frankly doesn't seem to be having a widespread problem. 272 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: This is state tis right now, So I think that's 273 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: be an open question is to whether that's legit. But 274 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 1: he is looking to close borders. I mean, this is 275 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 1: this guy's reflex move for sure. I mean, you know, 276 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: he believes that the American borders are too open, and 277 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,520 Speaker 1: you know, not an issue has gone by that he 278 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: has not used as an opportunity to look at further restrictions. 279 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 1: And the coronavirus is no different. Hey, Josh, you know 280 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: it's it appears to a lot of observers that the 281 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: President Trump in the White House, the tone towards the 282 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: coronavirus took a big turn several days ago, even though 283 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 1: the White House is suggesting that was not the case, 284 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: it was more of an evil evolutionary type type thing. 285 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 1: What is the feeling inside the Beltway as to what 286 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 1: really turned the White House to say, boy, we've got 287 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: a big problem here. There's a couple of series. One 288 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: is that they got some data from the UK about 289 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 1: a model they talked about getting a new model over 290 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: the weekend. That basically scared them a little bit. Um. 291 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: But I mean, the tone absolutely changed. I know Trump 292 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: is denying that it is, but I mean their tone changed, 293 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: and their tone changed on Monday, and now they're taking 294 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: really seriously. Remember it wasn't too long ago that Trump 295 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 1: wanted two and a half billion dollars for coronavirus response 296 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: and now it's seeking a trillion dollars. So you know, 297 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 1: give you a sense two billion to one trillion, that's 298 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 1: how much the tone has changed. And here in d C. 299 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 1: It's like a ghost town, you know. And so we've 300 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 1: got the Senate still meaning trying to figure out what 301 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: they're gonna do. Are they going to pass the House bill? 302 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: That they're going to expand the House bill. We don't 303 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 1: know the timeline on that Senator is frankly, that group 304 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: includes a bunch of older folks or not social distancing 305 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: while they're doing this. So there's urgency to this issue, 306 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 1: and I think I think the Senate realized that, I 307 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: think all of Washington realizes that we're not seeing a 308 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,959 Speaker 1: lot of my partisan divide on this issue. Yeah, and 309 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: it's definitely like a ghost town here as well. What 310 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:30,919 Speaker 1: Josh ridden wind Grove, please stay safe. Thank you for 311 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 1: being with us. Josh wyn Grove, White House correspondent for 312 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Really interesting right now to see some of 313 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 1: the developments. Mayor to Blasio of New York City coming 314 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:42,719 Speaker 1: out and saying that the United that that that New 315 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 1: York has almost a thousand diagnosed cases of coronavirus asking 316 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: for help from the military in order to contain individuals, 317 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 1: would also detest individuals. I know that they're going to 318 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 1: be ships possibly coming and testing people with ventilators and 319 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 1: trying to make sure that the respe bonds time is accurate. Paul, 320 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: A real concern here about the hospital system and the 321 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 1: capacity given the number of beds, given the hospitalization rates 322 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:17,639 Speaker 1: and given just how contagious this virus is, Lisa, I 323 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: think what people are trying to one of things they're 324 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: trying to get ahold of here is just kind of 325 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 1: the kind of where are we in the curve of 326 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: the additional cases. Dr Paul Getford, professor in the Division 327 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,400 Speaker 1: Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama, Birmingham and also 328 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: a director of the Alabama Vaccine Research Clinics, joins us. Now, uh, 329 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: Dr Getford, give us your sense of kind of where 330 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 1: we are in the curve of new cases in the 331 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: United States. Well, unfortunately, we're in the rising part of 332 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 1: the curve. If you look at any of the estimates 333 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: um or any of the curving trends, there's no leveling 334 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 1: off right now. So we still haven't begun to level 335 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 1: off yet. So we're I guess what we're We're We're 336 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: at the sort of lug and they've logarithmic growth phase 337 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 1: of the curve, which is a little bit frightening considering 338 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 1: the fact that Mayor de Blasio here in New York 339 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,120 Speaker 1: is asking for military assistance as he sees the cases 340 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: absolutely surge with a nearly a thousand confirmed cases and 341 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 1: we've all had anecdotes about people having a hard time 342 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: getting a test who think that they have the symptoms. 343 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 1: So the likely tally has probably quite a bit higher 344 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: given how quickly the number of cases is rising the 345 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: logarithmic scale. How many people in the United States do 346 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,120 Speaker 1: you think, I mean, what proportion do you think will 347 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:38,159 Speaker 1: end up getting this virus? Well? I think, Um, it 348 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 1: all depends on our response to this epidemic on pandemic. 349 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 1: If we take if everybody takes seriously the whole part 350 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 1: about social isolation and don't does not go out unless 351 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:55,120 Speaker 1: they absolutely have to. Um. And the people who need 352 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: to go to work or people who are needed to 353 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 1: have a functioning society, um, so healthcare workers, police ambulance, 354 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 1: so on and so forth. Um, if we do that, 355 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: then we'll the numbers will be a lot less. I 356 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:12,679 Speaker 1: can tell you that we're on the same trajectory as 357 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:17,120 Speaker 1: Italy right now. Italy currently has thirty cases and they're 358 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: still growing. Um, And so it doesn't look good. Um. 359 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 1: We we are a larger country than Italy, so we 360 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 1: may be able to handle that a little bit better. 361 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: But um, that's still not a great sign. So there's 362 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: been estimates, I'm sorry, extreme estimates if we did nothing 363 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 1: at all, or we don't even want to think about 364 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,359 Speaker 1: that because we are finally doing something. So Dr Gepford 365 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 1: gives a sense a kind of kind of how you 366 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: think this will play out. It looks like the federal 367 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 1: government is really mobilizing. UM, so do you expect it? 368 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 1: Just is this really a story right now? If just 369 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 1: getting test kits into is widthy disseminate as possible to 370 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 1: get a real handle on kind of what the numbers are. 371 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: Is that do you think is the most critical issue 372 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:05,359 Speaker 1: right now? Well, that is, um, that's one of the 373 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: critical issues. That's very important. I think it's fair to 374 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 1: say now that it's inundated our society and that people 375 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: need to not worked for a test. If they have 376 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 1: the symptoms UM, then they need to self quarantine. Uh. 377 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,439 Speaker 1: And I've had many people here where I am in Alabama, 378 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: which has been sort of late in the game, and 379 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,239 Speaker 1: again it's because we haven't had the tests here. We 380 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,439 Speaker 1: were one of the last states to actually have a test. 381 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 1: We've gone from one case less than a week ago 382 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: to forty six cases today. So that's a huge growth. 383 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: And I have a lot of patients and employees who 384 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: are starting to develop symptoms. Now, we even have one 385 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: of our lead infectious disease doctors here in town that 386 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 1: who started our HIV clinic many years ago, who tested 387 00:21:56,040 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: positive for coronavirus. So it's in our society the I 388 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 1: think people need to realize that if they get sick 389 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: at all, the best thing for them to do is 390 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:10,880 Speaker 1: self quarantine, unless they started, you know, developing respiratory difficulties, 391 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:12,679 Speaker 1: in which case they probably need to go to the 392 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 1: emergency department. Dr Gepford. Given the fact, I will just 393 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 1: say that testing is important because there are it's likely 394 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: that there are many people who are not developing symptoms 395 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 1: and people who have been exposed. That would be important 396 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 1: as well. But we're not able to do any of 397 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:33,399 Speaker 1: that right now because the testing is so um we 398 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 1: have so few tests to be able to do that. 399 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 1: Dr Eepford, you do your professor in the Division of 400 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama in Birmingham. You're 401 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 1: also the director of the Alabama Vaccine Research Clinic. And 402 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 1: the focus right now is how quickly can we get 403 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 1: some sort of medication, some vaccine to to be a 404 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 1: circuit breaker here we do hear about Chinese pharmaceutical companies 405 00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:00,200 Speaker 1: developing something and actually entering a human testing phase. Is 406 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 1: how quickly could we get something in circulation that could 407 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 1: severely limit the spread? Okay, so treatment is about the start. 408 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 1: In fact, we've started that study for a treatment. It's 409 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 1: a drug called remdessa there. It was actually produced in 410 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 1: part at u a BUM, but it was a collaborative effort. 411 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 1: It's owned by Gilead now and that treatment has already started. 412 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 1: So patients who are infected, who are in the hospital, 413 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,199 Speaker 1: we are doing a randomized control study to see if 414 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 1: that is an effective drug. We should know the answer 415 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 1: of that in a few months. Um. That drug could 416 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 1: potentially be used for prevention as well, but I'm not 417 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,119 Speaker 1: aware of any studies that are looking at that for prevention. 418 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 1: The best prevention, as you probably know, is a vaccine. 419 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: Vaccine studies have started in this country and in China. Um. 420 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 1: In China, I'm not sure what their timeline is. In 421 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 1: this country, you have to first do safety, and then 422 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 1: safety and immunogenicity, and then you can do an efficacy study, 423 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,439 Speaker 1: and that generally takes at least a year year and 424 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 1: a half. If everything goes well. It seems like that's 425 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,360 Speaker 1: the timing issue here. Is there any way to accelerate 426 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 1: any of those timelines. I don't think so, not for 427 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 1: the vaccine, for the for the drug treatment, it's a 428 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 1: little bit easier, and it's and we already have a 429 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 1: drug in hand that UM has been tested in humans 430 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 1: already UM so it was tested. It was originally developed 431 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 1: free bola UM, so we don't have to do small 432 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 1: studies at first UM, so we can skip that. So 433 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:41,360 Speaker 1: that will likely be developed if it works more rapidly. 434 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 1: But the public vaccine testing is you have to test 435 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:48,640 Speaker 1: safety and because we know that there are certain vaccines 436 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:52,399 Speaker 1: in the past that have actually worsen disease outcomes, so 437 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 1: you can't just go really really quickly, and you can't 438 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,199 Speaker 1: even test to see if it works unless you have 439 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: an ongoing epidemic UM and so the Stars one vaccine 440 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 1: was developed in two thousand four and they had it 441 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: ready to go, but then the epidemic went away and 442 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,320 Speaker 1: so they couldn't test it. But Dr Keefer just to 443 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:17,159 Speaker 1: sort of wrap things altogether. The big concern with so 444 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 1: many people getting the virus is that particularly older had 445 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: also and you know compromised individuals have a very high 446 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 1: hospitalization rate. Governor Cuomo of New York yesterday saying it 447 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 1: could amount to almost of cases. Considering that that has 448 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: been the rate of hospitalization for those tested. Is that 449 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:40,400 Speaker 1: a skewed number for just those who actually got tested, 450 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: considering how we are not really testing that many people, 451 00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 1: I think is a good number that's been born out 452 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 1: in China um people who developed COVID nineteen end up 453 00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 1: needing hospitalization. So that is the bigest problem right now 454 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 1: with this disease. Mortality is bad, it can be upwards 455 00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,199 Speaker 1: of four percent, and it's anywhere from point five to 456 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 1: four percent. But the problem is when you have of 457 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,679 Speaker 1: people that need hospitalization and you have the numbers that 458 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 1: we're seeing, which I think is right now in the 459 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:22,320 Speaker 1: US and growing logarithmically, that our health care infrastructure is 460 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 1: going to be inundated in parts of the country. It's 461 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 1: already that way, and so I think that's the biggest problem. 462 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,640 Speaker 1: Running out of supplies, running out of medical supplies. Look 463 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,919 Speaker 1: what is happening in Italy right now, where you have 464 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 1: to decide on who gets care and who doesn't get care, 465 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 1: And that's what we really want to avoid, and that's 466 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 1: why this social isolation and staying out of crowded situations 467 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 1: is absolutely essential for the United States right now. Dr 468 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:50,719 Speaker 1: Paul gap For thank you so much for being with us, 469 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 1: professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University 470 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 1: of Alabama, Birmingham and also director of the Alabama Vaccine 471 00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 1: Research Clinic. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg pen L podcast. 472 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 473 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm 474 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa abram Woyds. I'm 475 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,160 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa abram woits one. Before the podcast, 476 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.