WEBVTT - Ep44 "Why can't you tickle yourself?" (Time Traveling Part 2)

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<v Speaker 1>Why can't you tickle yourself? Why don't hippopotamuses tell stories

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<v Speaker 1>around the campfire? What would I advise the president if

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<v Speaker 1>we find ourselves at war with extraterrestrials? And what does

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<v Speaker 1>any of this have to do with Wayne Gretzky or

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<v Speaker 1>the Greek Goddess of Memory and her children? Or poking

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<v Speaker 1>your finger into the side of your eyeball, or hitting

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<v Speaker 1>a bottle to get ketchup onto your French fries? And

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<v Speaker 1>why do we get so anxious about the world changing

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<v Speaker 1>around us? Welcome to Inner Cosmos with me David Eagleman.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a neuroscientist and author at Stanford and in these

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<v Speaker 1>episodes we sail deeply into our three pound universe to

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<v Speaker 1>understand why and how our lives look the way they do.

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<v Speaker 1>Today's episode is about one of the most important things

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<v Speaker 1>that brains do, which is the simulation of possible futures.

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<v Speaker 1>The way we teach about brains in the classroom usually

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<v Speaker 1>has to do with the brain figuring out where it

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<v Speaker 1>is and what is happening around it, Like it detects

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<v Speaker 1>touch on its skin, and it detects photons from the

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<v Speaker 1>environment out there, and it picks up on sound waves

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<v Speaker 1>that are happening, and it stitches all of these together

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<v Speaker 1>in the massive hurricane of electrical spikes that race around

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<v Speaker 1>in the silence and darkness of your skull, and all

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<v Speaker 1>of this neural information allows you to put together a

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<v Speaker 1>picture of what is happening in the world out there,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is what allows you to operate in the

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<v Speaker 1>world and to catch that fish and put it in

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<v Speaker 1>your mouth, and to run from the predator, or more hosaically,

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<v Speaker 1>to find the right empty parking space, or tell the

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<v Speaker 1>cashier what you want from the fast food menu, or

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<v Speaker 1>apply the brakes on your bicycle when there's a pothole

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<v Speaker 1>in the road. So the brain gathers data from the

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<v Speaker 1>world around it so that it can operate inside of

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<v Speaker 1>that world. But what we talked about last week was

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<v Speaker 1>something surprising, which is that the brain doesn't spend all

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<v Speaker 1>of its time in the present. In fact, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of its experiences are not in the here and now

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<v Speaker 1>at all, but instead in the past. Your brain holds

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<v Speaker 1>on to data about previous events in your life. In

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<v Speaker 1>other words, what happened and who was there, and what

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<v Speaker 1>the spatial configuration of the furniture was in the room,

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<v Speaker 1>and the building, and you spend quite a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>your time recalling that past. This whole process is what

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<v Speaker 1>we summarize as memory. And what I emphasized last week

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<v Speaker 1>is that we spend a good deal of our existence

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<v Speaker 1>unhooked from the here and now, and instead we time

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<v Speaker 1>travel to that past. But why do we care about

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<v Speaker 1>the past? This is for one reason only. We do

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<v Speaker 1>it to better simulate possible futures, and that's what today's

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<v Speaker 1>episode is about. It turns out we spend an enormous

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<v Speaker 1>amount of our time traveling to the future. Our time

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<v Speaker 1>travel is not one way, it goes both directions. We

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<v Speaker 1>simulate possibilities. We think of what our actions could lead to.

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<v Speaker 1>If I say this, then my spouse might say this

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<v Speaker 1>other thing back to me. If I open this cabinet

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<v Speaker 1>over here, I will expect to find soup cans in there.

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<v Speaker 1>If I do XYZ, I'll impress my boss, and I'll

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<v Speaker 1>hope to get that promotion. We walk down long paths

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<v Speaker 1>of possible chess moves that we can play in our lives. So,

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<v Speaker 1>as I said, we spend the vast majority of our

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<v Speaker 1>lives not in the here and now, but in the there,

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<v Speaker 1>and then in either direction. We spend most of our

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<v Speaker 1>days in daydreams and stories and confabulations in life narratives

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<v Speaker 1>of reminiscence and future projection. When you tally all this up,

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<v Speaker 1>the years that we spend in the realm of fantasy

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<v Speaker 1>outstrip the time that we spend in the present. So

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<v Speaker 1>why do we simulate the future? Well, first, it's much

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<v Speaker 1>more energy efficient to do that than to try everything

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<v Speaker 1>out in the real world. If I have to haul

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<v Speaker 1>this rock over there, I can sit and simulate several

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<v Speaker 1>possible approaches. I can imagine myself picking it up and

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<v Speaker 1>carrying it over there. But then I realized, now I'll

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<v Speaker 1>never be able to get it o over that big gulch. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>thank goodness that I ran that simulation from the comfort

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<v Speaker 1>of sitting on the ground and thinking about it. That's

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<v Speaker 1>super energy efficient, and I can try out different methods

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<v Speaker 1>of hauling the rock. What if I use a rope

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<v Speaker 1>or a wheelbarrow or a catapult. I can try out

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<v Speaker 1>all these different things without breaking a sweat or burning

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<v Speaker 1>any calories besides the few calories required for simulation, which

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<v Speaker 1>is orders of magnitude less than employing my muscles to

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<v Speaker 1>move my multi trillion cell body. Around in the world,

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<v Speaker 1>and this kind of simulation, this is what we humans

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<v Speaker 1>do all the time. So imagine you are a fire

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<v Speaker 1>chief and you and your team roll up on a

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<v Speaker 1>new fire that's engulfing a building. Your job is to

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<v Speaker 1>quickly make predictions about how to best position your team. So,

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<v Speaker 1>given your past experience with the world, you mentally simulate

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<v Speaker 1>different layouts and you evaluate their effectiveness, and then once

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<v Speaker 1>you've simulated a great plan or the best of what's available,

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<v Speaker 1>then you set it into action. In the real world,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have to try out every single thing in

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<v Speaker 1>the physical world, and it's not just about energy efficiency.

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<v Speaker 1>More generally, the reason you simulate possible futures is because

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<v Speaker 1>it's much less dangerous than trying everything out in the

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<v Speaker 1>real world. So let's say you're parked in your car

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<v Speaker 1>and you need to go to some door, but there

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<v Speaker 1>is a dog barking at you, So you run a movie.

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<v Speaker 1>You simulate what would it be like if I make

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<v Speaker 1>a run for that door, and your brain might run

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<v Speaker 1>that and decide, you know what, that's not worth the risk.

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<v Speaker 1>So your brain simulates other plans, like maybe you stay

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<v Speaker 1>in the car and you dial the owner, or maybe

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<v Speaker 1>you crack the window and you yell for the owner.

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<v Speaker 1>Things like that, your brain doesn't actually have to run

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<v Speaker 1>the risk of confronting the dog. Or maybe some big

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<v Speaker 1>guy cuts in front of you when you're waiting in line,

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<v Speaker 1>and you might simulate all kinds of things that you

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<v Speaker 1>want to do to him in including calling him names

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<v Speaker 1>or pushing him in the back or whatever. But you

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<v Speaker 1>are usually better running the simulations in your head and

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<v Speaker 1>not taking advantage of all the things that you could do.

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<v Speaker 1>As the philosopher Carl Popper put it, simulation of the

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<v Speaker 1>future allows our hypotheses to die in our stead, So

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<v Speaker 1>intelligent brains do not want to engage in the expensive

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<v Speaker 1>and potentially fatal game of physically testing every action to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out what the consequences are. Instead, it is more

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<v Speaker 1>efficient and safer when possible to envisage consequences of a

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<v Speaker 1>proposed plan before you actually execute it. So by learning

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<v Speaker 1>up the rules of the world and simulating possible outcomes

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<v Speaker 1>and evaluating each one of them, your brain can play

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<v Speaker 1>out scenarios without the risk and expense of attempting them physically.

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<v Speaker 1>For this reason, prediction of possible futures is one of

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<v Speaker 1>the highest priorities of biological systems. Now, fascinatingly, there hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>been that much direct study of how brains do this,

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<v Speaker 1>mostly because of the difficulty of observing it in action,

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<v Speaker 1>because the whole purpose of mental simulation is to make

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<v Speaker 1>action unnecessary, and the traditional way that we study the

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<v Speaker 1>brain is to correlate something in the brain with an

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<v Speaker 1>action and explicit behavior. So this is what makes it

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<v Speaker 1>challenging to study simulation of the future. Nonetheless, what I'm

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<v Speaker 1>gonna tell you about today is the way that we

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<v Speaker 1>can pull together scattered data to begin to understand how

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<v Speaker 1>brains build possible worlds. So let's get started. The important

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<v Speaker 1>place to start is with an idea that I've talked

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<v Speaker 1>about a lot on this podcast, the idea of the

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<v Speaker 1>internal model. The idea is that the brain's job isn't

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<v Speaker 1>just about detecting and reacting in real time, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>about constructing a model on the inside about what's happening

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<v Speaker 1>in the outside world. It's like you're running a simulation

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<v Speaker 1>there in the silence and the darkness of the brain.

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<v Speaker 1>And the key is that the internal model can emulate

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<v Speaker 1>possible scenarios. Now, one of the first places that we

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<v Speaker 1>see this kind of simulation get studied is with our

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<v Speaker 1>physical interactions with the world. For example, think about when

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<v Speaker 1>you hold a ketchup bar bottle in your left hand

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<v Speaker 1>and you pound it with your right hand to try

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<v Speaker 1>to get the ketchup to come out onto your French fries. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>when you do that, your left arm doesn't move very

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<v Speaker 1>much when you pound with your right hand because your

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<v Speaker 1>muscles tighten up. But just the right moment. Now, if

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<v Speaker 1>you want to try an interesting experiment, just hold the

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<v Speaker 1>ketchup bottle and have a friend pound the bottle, and

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<v Speaker 1>what you'll see is that your arm moves a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>You can't keep your arm still when somebody else is

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<v Speaker 1>hitting the bottle, But when you hit it, you are

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<v Speaker 1>the one making the action, and your brain knows how

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<v Speaker 1>to simulate what's about to happen in this case, that

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<v Speaker 1>there's about to be a lot of pressure on your arm,

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<v Speaker 1>and so it can deal in real time with counterbalancing.

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<v Speaker 1>That This is the brain predicting something simple that hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>actually happened yet. Your hand is about to hit the

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<v Speaker 1>bottle and your arm tenses up in expense. Now, why

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<v Speaker 1>does the brain care about prediction? Well, if your brain

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<v Speaker 1>can simulate things into the future that can speed up

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<v Speaker 1>your response time. And this is really useful for potentially

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<v Speaker 1>dangerous things, like if you need to dodge a rock

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<v Speaker 1>that's being thrown at you, or if you need to

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<v Speaker 1>catch some prey and you can figure out where it's heading.

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<v Speaker 1>This reminds us, of course, of the great hockey player

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<v Speaker 1>Wayne Gretzky, who said, I skate to where the puck

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be, not to where it has been. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have to be Wayne Gretzky for your brain

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<v Speaker 1>to be predicting the next step of everything around you. Why,

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<v Speaker 1>because your brain's architecture is built to anticipate everything in advance.

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<v Speaker 1>How does it do this Well, First, your nervous system

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't just send out motor commands like move your arm.

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<v Speaker 1>It also sends out copies of that motor command along

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<v Speaker 1>other telegraph wires to let other parts of the brain

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<v Speaker 1>know that the command was just sent out. So this

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<v Speaker 1>is what's called an efference copy, and that has all

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of effects on what happens next. For example, when

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<v Speaker 1>you move your eyes around, your eyes are jumping about

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<v Speaker 1>three times per second. The world seems to remain stable

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<v Speaker 1>visually and This is because of the efference copy that

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<v Speaker 1>tells the rest of your brain, okay, visual cortex, get ready.

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<v Speaker 1>The whole world is about to streak past to the left.

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<v Speaker 1>So your visual cortex, which is locked in darkness, isn't

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<v Speaker 1>surprised when the eyes suddenly make a jump and the

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<v Speaker 1>data is now all different. Now contrast that with what

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<v Speaker 1>happens if you get a friend to gently push your

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<v Speaker 1>eyeball from the outside. Now, the visual world appears to shift.

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<v Speaker 1>In the first case, when you are moving your eyes voluntarily,

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<v Speaker 1>the eference copy tells the brain, hey, a move is

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<v Speaker 1>coming up, and that suppresses visual motion detection. But in

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<v Speaker 1>the second case, when somebody pushes your eye, the absence

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<v Speaker 1>of an effherence copy means, hey, that movement isn't mine,

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<v Speaker 1>it's external, And so you perceive visual motion in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'll give you another example. What happens every time

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<v Speaker 1>you blink your eyes. When you do that, for about

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<v Speaker 1>a tenth of a second, the world goes dark. But

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<v Speaker 1>you don't perceive that because you know it is coming.

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<v Speaker 1>Your brain systems that send out the command to blink

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<v Speaker 1>the eyelids also let the visual system know, hey, this

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<v Speaker 1>is what's about to happen. This way, your visual cortex

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<v Speaker 1>can anticipate that's about to happen, so the blink gets ignored. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>if you don't believe me, maybe you think the blink

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<v Speaker 1>is just too fast or something like that. Just sit

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<v Speaker 1>in a room and have your friend flick the light

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<v Speaker 1>switch really fast so that everything goes dark for a

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<v Speaker 1>tenth of a second. You can't miss that. It's really

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<v Speaker 1>obvious since it wasn't you that caused the darkness, you

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<v Speaker 1>notice it. So, as we see with the ketchup bottle

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<v Speaker 1>and eye movements and blinks, brains make predictions about the

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<v Speaker 1>consequences of your own actions. And a great example of

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<v Speaker 1>this is tickling. It turns out that if someone is

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<v Speaker 1>coming after you and sticking their fingers under your underarms,

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<v Speaker 1>it makes you laugh uncontrollably. It tickles. But I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know if you've ever tried this. It turns out you're

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<v Speaker 1>not able to tickle yourself. Why not, It's because of

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<v Speaker 1>the simple fact that your own actions are predictable by

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<v Speaker 1>your brain. You can't surprise your left underarm with your

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<v Speaker 1>right hand because your brain is the one driving the

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<v Speaker 1>fingers of the right hand, and it determines exactly when

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<v Speaker 1>to move the fingers, and so there is zero surprise

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<v Speaker 1>when the left underarm senses that for tickling, you require unpredictability.

0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:27.960
<v Speaker 1>That's the whole trick to a tickle. When people study

0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:32.040
<v Speaker 1>this with brain imaging fMRI, they find that when you

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:36.760
<v Speaker 1>try to tickle yourself, you get activity in the primary

0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:40.840
<v Speaker 1>somatosensory cortex, meaning your brain is detecting that there's a

0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:44.320
<v Speaker 1>feeling there. But the activity doesn't go further. It doesn't

0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:49.120
<v Speaker 1>activate all these other downstream areas that come online when

0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:53.680
<v Speaker 1>someone else is tickling you, like the secondary somatosensory cortex

0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:59.000
<v Speaker 1>and the anterior singular cortex. Your brain sees the tickle

0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:05.120
<v Speaker 1>coming and discounts it. In fact, other neuroimaging studies find

0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:08.680
<v Speaker 1>that these brain areas that come online when you're getting tickled,

0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:13.320
<v Speaker 1>these same areas become active when you are simply anticipating

0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:17.600
<v Speaker 1>a tickle. When somebody's fingers are moving close, your somatis

0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:21.880
<v Speaker 1>sensory areas start to go to town. Now it turns

0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:26.120
<v Speaker 1>out there is one way that you can tickle yourself,

0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.400
<v Speaker 1>and that is if you build a little device that

0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:34.840
<v Speaker 1>inserts randomness so you can no longer predict the tickle.

0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:38.000
<v Speaker 1>So imagine you set up a little machine where you

0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:41.560
<v Speaker 1>are moving a lever around like a joystick, and that

0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:46.080
<v Speaker 1>controls a feather that tickles your left underarm. But in

0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:49.240
<v Speaker 1>between the movement of the lever and the movement of

0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:55.920
<v Speaker 1>the feather, the computer injects random time delays. That way,

0:16:56.360 --> 0:16:59.840
<v Speaker 1>your brain can't know when the movement in your under

0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:04.720
<v Speaker 1>is going to occur. And now you rescue the tickle.

0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.719
<v Speaker 1>With the help of a little bit of technology, you

0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:13.199
<v Speaker 1>can tickle yourself. Importantly, it also turns out there is

0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:17.520
<v Speaker 1>one group of people who are able to tickle themselves,

0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 1>and that is people who are suffering from schizophrenia. So

0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:25.040
<v Speaker 1>in episode thirty three, I talked about my hypothesis that

0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:30.040
<v Speaker 1>schizophrenia might be in part or in whole a disorder

0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:34.240
<v Speaker 1>of time perception. So in this light, it's very instructive

0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:39.879
<v Speaker 1>that people with schizophrenia can tickle themselves. This suggests that

0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:44.600
<v Speaker 1>they're unable to predict their own actions and how those

0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:49.720
<v Speaker 1>actions will lead to the next sensations. This inability to

0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:53.560
<v Speaker 1>understand one's own actions, this is a general deficit that

0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:56.879
<v Speaker 1>we see in schizophrenia. People will have a hard time

0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:01.560
<v Speaker 1>distinguishing things they call from things they didn't cause. A

0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:05.639
<v Speaker 1>person with schizophrenia will say something like, my hand picks

0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:08.280
<v Speaker 1>up the paper clip, but I'm not the one controlling

0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:11.679
<v Speaker 1>my hand. What my hand does has nothing to do

0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:14.800
<v Speaker 1>with me. And of course you've heard of things like

0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:20.200
<v Speaker 1>auditory hallucinations in schizophrenia. In that other episode, I talked

0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:24.400
<v Speaker 1>about how we all have an internal dialogue. You generate

0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:27.320
<v Speaker 1>a voice and you listen to it, and in schizophrenia,

0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.920
<v Speaker 1>the timing seems to be slightly off such that the

0:18:30.960 --> 0:18:37.640
<v Speaker 1>internal voice gets attributed to somebody else. Interestingly, my colleague

0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:41.840
<v Speaker 1>Chris Frith and his collaborators ran a study with people

0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.959
<v Speaker 1>who had schizophrenia, and they found that if a person

0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:50.359
<v Speaker 1>has schizophrenia but does not have auditory hallucinations, then they

0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:54.000
<v Speaker 1>are more ticklish when other people tickle them. But if

0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:59.320
<v Speaker 1>a person with schizophrenia does have auditory hallucinations, then they

0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:03.359
<v Speaker 1>can tickle them themselves. They judge no difference between someone

0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:07.359
<v Speaker 1>else tickling them and them tickling themselves. They are no

0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:29.560
<v Speaker 1>longer making the appropriate predictions. Okay, so this gives us

0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:33.480
<v Speaker 1>a sense of how our brains, under normal circumstances work

0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:37.760
<v Speaker 1>to constantly make predictions. And it's not just about predicting

0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:41.840
<v Speaker 1>things about your own actions and sensations, but more generally

0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:45.600
<v Speaker 1>about anything to do with the outside world. And the

0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:49.359
<v Speaker 1>key is that our brains are not simply reactive, but

0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:54.440
<v Speaker 1>they have these internal loops that are constantly making predictions

0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:59.360
<v Speaker 1>about what comes next. And having this kind of architecture

0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:04.000
<v Speaker 1>it allows brains to do not just stimulus response, but

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:09.160
<v Speaker 1>instead to make predictions ahead of actual sensory input. So

0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:12.159
<v Speaker 1>think about trying to catch a baseball that someone is

0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:16.600
<v Speaker 1>tossing to you. If your brain was just doing feed

0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:20.800
<v Speaker 1>forward analysis of these signals, you couldn't catch the ball.

0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:24.320
<v Speaker 1>There'd be a delay of hundreds of milliseconds from the

0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:27.919
<v Speaker 1>time that the light strikes your eye until you could

0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:31.840
<v Speaker 1>execute the motor command of putting your hand up, and

0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:34.440
<v Speaker 1>your hand would always be reaching for a place where

0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:37.480
<v Speaker 1>the ball used to be. We are able to catch

0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:43.119
<v Speaker 1>baseballs because we have deeply hardwired internal models of physics,

0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:47.520
<v Speaker 1>and these internal models generate expectations about when and where

0:20:47.960 --> 0:20:51.480
<v Speaker 1>the ball is going to hit. It's making predictions about

0:20:51.800 --> 0:20:56.160
<v Speaker 1>the future. Now, how does this sort of prediction play

0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.200
<v Speaker 1>out in your daily life? Because it's not just about

0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:04.240
<v Speaker 1>hitting catch a bottles and catching baseballs. But prediction applies

0:21:04.400 --> 0:21:07.960
<v Speaker 1>to every decision you make about what you're going to do.

0:21:08.720 --> 0:21:11.000
<v Speaker 1>Let's say you're trying to figure out what you need

0:21:11.040 --> 0:21:12.760
<v Speaker 1>to do in an hour from now. You have a

0:21:12.800 --> 0:21:15.720
<v Speaker 1>bunch of things on your to do list, but given

0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:18.520
<v Speaker 1>the constraints of space and time, you can't do everything

0:21:18.560 --> 0:21:23.520
<v Speaker 1>at once, and so life is a constant series of choices.

0:21:23.920 --> 0:21:26.199
<v Speaker 1>So let's say you're looking at these choices. One you

0:21:26.800 --> 0:21:29.399
<v Speaker 1>have to write a very long and specific email for

0:21:29.440 --> 0:21:33.400
<v Speaker 1>your boss. Two you're thinking of going downtown to get

0:21:33.400 --> 0:21:37.720
<v Speaker 1>a boba tee, or three you're considering going to the gym,

0:21:37.800 --> 0:21:40.000
<v Speaker 1>which you've been promising yourself that you're going to do

0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:43.000
<v Speaker 1>for some days now. So how does the choice actually

0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:46.520
<v Speaker 1>get made in the brain. As far as our conscious

0:21:46.640 --> 0:21:49.440
<v Speaker 1>minds go, we get very little access to the details.

0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:52.040
<v Speaker 1>It just seems like, oh, okay, I've decided to do

0:21:52.480 --> 0:21:55.080
<v Speaker 1>this instead of that, but you don't necessarily know why.

0:21:55.920 --> 0:21:59.080
<v Speaker 1>But the last several decades of neuroscience have surfaced how

0:21:59.160 --> 0:22:05.800
<v Speaker 1>this actually happenins We run the simulations and we feel them.

0:22:06.160 --> 0:22:09.520
<v Speaker 1>So when you think about writing that email, your brain

0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:12.919
<v Speaker 1>actually runs the little movie of you doing that, and

0:22:13.000 --> 0:22:16.080
<v Speaker 1>possibly the ache that you might feel in your shoulder

0:22:16.160 --> 0:22:20.040
<v Speaker 1>from typing too much, and also the satisfaction at finishing

0:22:20.080 --> 0:22:24.160
<v Speaker 1>that task. Then your brain runs the simulation of going

0:22:24.240 --> 0:22:28.240
<v Speaker 1>and getting the boba t how delicious that will be

0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:32.280
<v Speaker 1>and how satisfying it'll be. And you also run the

0:22:32.320 --> 0:22:35.680
<v Speaker 1>simulation of going to the gym. It's gonna be a

0:22:35.760 --> 0:22:38.439
<v Speaker 1>little costly for you in terms of time, and it

0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:41.080
<v Speaker 1>might make your muscles hurt, but boy, are you gonna

0:22:41.080 --> 0:22:45.360
<v Speaker 1>feel great when you're done. You'll feel so satisfied. Now,

0:22:45.400 --> 0:22:49.080
<v Speaker 1>what happens is your brain runs all these simulations and

0:22:49.160 --> 0:22:53.320
<v Speaker 1>you feel the emotions with each one. Now again, this

0:22:53.400 --> 0:22:57.080
<v Speaker 1>happens essentially entirely under the hood. For most of the

0:22:57.680 --> 0:23:01.240
<v Speaker 1>decisions you make in life. You have no conscious access

0:23:01.240 --> 0:23:04.840
<v Speaker 1>to how you made the final call, But your brain

0:23:05.000 --> 0:23:08.840
<v Speaker 1>is simulating the possibilities, and you experience each one with

0:23:08.920 --> 0:23:13.439
<v Speaker 1>your emotions and often with physical sensations. And this is

0:23:13.600 --> 0:23:18.280
<v Speaker 1>how we weigh choices against one another. This is how

0:23:18.600 --> 0:23:22.320
<v Speaker 1>we determine our paths in life. You feel the pain

0:23:22.440 --> 0:23:25.919
<v Speaker 1>or the pleasure from your predicted futures. You think of

0:23:26.000 --> 0:23:30.200
<v Speaker 1>yourself in future times, and you get to live out

0:23:30.240 --> 0:23:35.120
<v Speaker 1>those little movies. Now like everything in our brains. We

0:23:35.359 --> 0:23:38.960
<v Speaker 1>think this just automatically works, but in fact we have

0:23:39.560 --> 0:23:43.239
<v Speaker 1>very particular networks that need to be in place and

0:23:43.320 --> 0:23:46.520
<v Speaker 1>working well for this to function. And the reason we

0:23:46.640 --> 0:23:50.359
<v Speaker 1>know this is because some people get damage to a

0:23:50.560 --> 0:23:52.879
<v Speaker 1>part in the front of their brain, the venture medial

0:23:52.920 --> 0:23:57.399
<v Speaker 1>prefrontal cortex, and they end up displaying a very strange

0:23:57.400 --> 0:24:00.240
<v Speaker 1>and unexpected symptom, which is, if you give them some

0:24:00.359 --> 0:24:03.040
<v Speaker 1>choice to make, like which restaurant do you want to

0:24:03.080 --> 0:24:07.280
<v Speaker 1>go to tonight, they can articulate everything about the decision,

0:24:07.880 --> 0:24:12.000
<v Speaker 1>but they can't decide. They can't land on a decision.

0:24:12.720 --> 0:24:15.840
<v Speaker 1>So what's going on here? Well, patients like this have

0:24:15.920 --> 0:24:20.440
<v Speaker 1>been studied by neurologists like Antonio Demacio and his colleagues,

0:24:21.040 --> 0:24:24.720
<v Speaker 1>and what's happening is that their brain can run a

0:24:24.960 --> 0:24:31.120
<v Speaker 1>quick future simulation, but it has become disconnected from the emotions.

0:24:31.280 --> 0:24:35.680
<v Speaker 1>So the different future simulations all feel the same way.

0:24:35.680 --> 0:24:38.719
<v Speaker 1>They all feel neutral, and therefore there's no way to

0:24:38.920 --> 0:24:43.720
<v Speaker 1>distinguish any choice from any other. In other words, you

0:24:43.840 --> 0:24:47.760
<v Speaker 1>need to feel the outcome of a simulation in order

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:52.480
<v Speaker 1>to do decision making. So it turns out that under

0:24:52.520 --> 0:24:57.679
<v Speaker 1>normal circumstances, there's a core network of brain areas that

0:24:57.720 --> 0:25:02.960
<v Speaker 1>are involved in prospect, which just means seeing ahead. So

0:25:03.000 --> 0:25:04.800
<v Speaker 1>I want to give you a very quick sense of this.

0:25:05.840 --> 0:25:08.119
<v Speaker 1>So you've got this area of your brain, the venture

0:25:08.200 --> 0:25:12.720
<v Speaker 1>medial prefrontal cortex, which connects to areas involved in emotion

0:25:13.560 --> 0:25:16.760
<v Speaker 1>like the anterior insula and the amignla, and it also

0:25:16.920 --> 0:25:19.960
<v Speaker 1>connects to lots of other areas in the brain. And

0:25:20.160 --> 0:25:24.000
<v Speaker 1>activity in this area essentially specifies the things that are

0:25:24.119 --> 0:25:27.600
<v Speaker 1>pertinent to your current needs and goals, and this is

0:25:27.640 --> 0:25:34.080
<v Speaker 1>what guides the construction of relevant scenarios. Now, there are

0:25:34.080 --> 0:25:36.199
<v Speaker 1>a number of other brain areas that show up in

0:25:36.240 --> 0:25:40.160
<v Speaker 1>this core network. One is called the precuneus, and this

0:25:40.400 --> 0:25:44.520
<v Speaker 1>maps the locations of things in space, so its involvement

0:25:45.000 --> 0:25:50.520
<v Speaker 1>contributes to a spatial context for imagine scenarios and the

0:25:50.960 --> 0:25:56.480
<v Speaker 1>features inside of that. There's another area called the temporopridal junction,

0:25:56.760 --> 0:26:00.320
<v Speaker 1>and you see that area become active during the detection

0:26:01.080 --> 0:26:04.720
<v Speaker 1>of targets or events around you that are relevant to

0:26:04.760 --> 0:26:08.879
<v Speaker 1>what you're trying to do at this moment. This area

0:26:08.920 --> 0:26:11.679
<v Speaker 1>seems to run and do the same thing even in

0:26:11.800 --> 0:26:16.360
<v Speaker 1>your imagined scenarios. And then you've got an area called

0:26:16.400 --> 0:26:20.200
<v Speaker 1>the superior temporal sulcus, which is involved with lots of things,

0:26:20.240 --> 0:26:24.239
<v Speaker 1>but one of them is about interpreting social cues. So

0:26:24.320 --> 0:26:28.520
<v Speaker 1>one idea is that this area helps to specify other

0:26:28.880 --> 0:26:34.439
<v Speaker 1>individuals in their actions within imagined scenes. And then you

0:26:34.520 --> 0:26:38.159
<v Speaker 1>have the hippocampus. And one thing that's known is that

0:26:38.200 --> 0:26:41.199
<v Speaker 1>when you get damage to the hippocampus, that seems to

0:26:41.920 --> 0:26:46.840
<v Speaker 1>mess up all of the spatial coherence of a recalled

0:26:47.040 --> 0:26:52.440
<v Speaker 1>or imagined scene. So patients with hippocampal damage they can't

0:26:52.520 --> 0:26:58.479
<v Speaker 1>picture a specific place or detailed surrounding events. Here's one

0:26:58.520 --> 0:26:59.400
<v Speaker 1>way to think about this.

0:27:00.000 --> 0:27:04.560
<v Speaker 2>When you move in a virtual reality world, the goggles

0:27:04.680 --> 0:27:08.920
<v Speaker 2>keep track of where you are and all the objects

0:27:08.960 --> 0:27:11.560
<v Speaker 2>and how things change when you move.

0:27:12.080 --> 0:27:14.200
<v Speaker 1>And this is similar to what's going on in the brain.

0:27:14.280 --> 0:27:18.760
<v Speaker 1>You have special cells in the hippocampus called place cells,

0:27:19.280 --> 0:27:23.320
<v Speaker 1>which help to translate everything into a framework where you

0:27:23.359 --> 0:27:26.359
<v Speaker 1>are at the center of it. And the idea is

0:27:26.400 --> 0:27:31.640
<v Speaker 1>that these cells are critical to your imagination of scenes.

0:27:31.880 --> 0:27:37.240
<v Speaker 1>So as you virtually move through your imagined scene, the

0:27:37.320 --> 0:27:43.280
<v Speaker 1>hippocampal play cells keep the scene coherent and consistent, just

0:27:43.359 --> 0:27:47.199
<v Speaker 1>like the VR goggles would. So this all suggests that

0:27:47.240 --> 0:27:51.639
<v Speaker 1>the hippocampus is crucial for tying together the activity of

0:27:51.760 --> 0:27:58.480
<v Speaker 1>other brain areas to construct this rich and coherent imaginary experience.

0:28:00.040 --> 0:28:03.840
<v Speaker 1>You have this brainwide network of areas that are involved

0:28:03.960 --> 0:28:08.920
<v Speaker 1>when you are imagining future scenarios, and all of this

0:28:09.000 --> 0:28:12.480
<v Speaker 1>is what helps you to experience the movie and to

0:28:12.760 --> 0:28:17.760
<v Speaker 1>feel the emotions. If you are just a robot who

0:28:17.880 --> 0:28:21.080
<v Speaker 1>rolled into a room, you would just sit there because

0:28:21.400 --> 0:28:26.280
<v Speaker 1>you wouldn't have any particular reason to prioritize writing the

0:28:26.320 --> 0:28:30.080
<v Speaker 1>email versus getting the Boba tee versus going to the gym.

0:28:30.480 --> 0:28:34.439
<v Speaker 1>You would have no way to weigh these against one another.

0:28:35.240 --> 0:28:39.400
<v Speaker 1>But we assign feeling to all of our future scenarios.

0:28:39.880 --> 0:28:43.160
<v Speaker 1>So the brain makes predictions. But how does it know

0:28:43.880 --> 0:28:49.360
<v Speaker 1>how to improve these through time. Well, imagine a fire

0:28:49.400 --> 0:28:52.160
<v Speaker 1>department in a city, and every time a fire occurs

0:28:52.200 --> 0:28:55.080
<v Speaker 1>in the city, they go wailing out of the station

0:28:55.240 --> 0:28:58.000
<v Speaker 1>to take care of it, and they suspect that a

0:28:58.040 --> 0:29:00.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of the fires are going to happen around the

0:29:00.760 --> 0:29:04.120
<v Speaker 1>warehouse district, so they put their trucks there so they

0:29:04.160 --> 0:29:08.120
<v Speaker 1>can take care of things quickly. But eventually they realize

0:29:08.440 --> 0:29:11.880
<v Speaker 1>that their prediction was wrong. It's actually another part of

0:29:11.920 --> 0:29:16.560
<v Speaker 1>the city that keeps catching fire. So the area at

0:29:16.600 --> 0:29:19.080
<v Speaker 1>the foot of the mountains where the trees are dense

0:29:19.720 --> 0:29:24.320
<v Speaker 1>and interwoven with power lines, So the fire department starts

0:29:24.320 --> 0:29:28.480
<v Speaker 1>putting their resources there where they need to be in advance,

0:29:28.920 --> 0:29:32.080
<v Speaker 1>and that reduces the energy they need to expend every

0:29:32.120 --> 0:29:35.000
<v Speaker 1>time there's a new fire because they're no longer being

0:29:35.440 --> 0:29:37.920
<v Speaker 1>reactive to fires at the foot of the mountain, but

0:29:37.960 --> 0:29:42.080
<v Speaker 1>now they're making good predictions about it. So cities do

0:29:42.160 --> 0:29:44.360
<v Speaker 1>this kind of thing, by the way, in terms of fires,

0:29:44.600 --> 0:29:47.120
<v Speaker 1>in terms of where they expect crime is going to occur,

0:29:47.520 --> 0:29:50.160
<v Speaker 1>in terms of where and when the power usage is

0:29:50.200 --> 0:29:54.600
<v Speaker 1>going to happen. Everything. So the key about this example

0:29:54.760 --> 0:29:58.160
<v Speaker 1>is that the fire department's first predictions weren't so great,

0:29:58.600 --> 0:30:01.400
<v Speaker 1>and the data tells them, oh, that could be a

0:30:01.440 --> 0:30:04.760
<v Speaker 1>lot better. It tells them that something could be adjusted.

0:30:05.520 --> 0:30:07.880
<v Speaker 1>And that is the same thing that happens in the

0:30:08.000 --> 0:30:12.400
<v Speaker 1>brain all the time. The brain tries to predict everything,

0:30:13.240 --> 0:30:17.560
<v Speaker 1>and it pays attention to what's called the prediction error,

0:30:18.080 --> 0:30:21.440
<v Speaker 1>which means the difference between what it thought would happen

0:30:21.600 --> 0:30:25.880
<v Speaker 1>and what actually happened. And you see various cells in

0:30:25.920 --> 0:30:29.160
<v Speaker 1>the brain, for example, in the dopamine system that are

0:30:29.240 --> 0:30:35.920
<v Speaker 1>responding not to the reward or punishment, but the prediction error.

0:30:36.120 --> 0:30:39.400
<v Speaker 1>In other words, how different the reward or punishment was

0:30:39.920 --> 0:30:45.120
<v Speaker 1>from what was expected. And these dopamine systems broadcast their

0:30:45.160 --> 0:30:49.120
<v Speaker 1>signals all across the territory of the brain to announce

0:30:49.480 --> 0:30:52.720
<v Speaker 1>that the prediction wasn't quite right, there was a prediction error,

0:30:53.120 --> 0:30:58.680
<v Speaker 1>and therefore something needs to be adjusted. So our brain

0:30:58.880 --> 0:31:03.280
<v Speaker 1>has the architecture to make predictions and adjust them all

0:31:03.320 --> 0:31:05.880
<v Speaker 1>the time. And what is all this architecture of the

0:31:05.880 --> 0:31:11.600
<v Speaker 1>brain tell us. It tells us that the brain craves predictability.

0:31:12.280 --> 0:31:15.520
<v Speaker 1>Now why does it care about predictability? Well, first of

0:31:15.560 --> 0:31:20.280
<v Speaker 1>all because of energy efficiency. Because if you can predict

0:31:20.400 --> 0:31:23.239
<v Speaker 1>that something is going to happen, then you don't have

0:31:23.320 --> 0:31:25.960
<v Speaker 1>to burn up all this neural energy on it. You

0:31:26.000 --> 0:31:29.280
<v Speaker 1>already know it's coming. But if something is a surprise,

0:31:29.960 --> 0:31:34.640
<v Speaker 1>the brain turns its vast attentional mechanisms to it and

0:31:34.760 --> 0:31:37.000
<v Speaker 1>has to burn a lot of calories on understanding what

0:31:37.080 --> 0:31:41.600
<v Speaker 1>the heck just happened and eventually reshaping the internal model

0:31:41.880 --> 0:31:44.959
<v Speaker 1>to account for that. In the future, all of this

0:31:45.000 --> 0:31:47.760
<v Speaker 1>would be fine. Maybe if we could plug ourselves into

0:31:47.800 --> 0:31:52.280
<v Speaker 1>a wall, but instead we are mobile creatures who run

0:31:52.360 --> 0:31:56.280
<v Speaker 1>on batteries. We have to constantly find food sources and

0:31:56.360 --> 0:31:58.479
<v Speaker 1>stick them in our mouth so that we can have

0:31:58.600 --> 0:32:01.720
<v Speaker 1>enough energy to get to the next food source. So

0:32:01.840 --> 0:32:06.440
<v Speaker 1>mother nature evolved us to be highly efficient creatures. And

0:32:06.480 --> 0:32:11.080
<v Speaker 1>what we do is we make ourselves massively efficient by

0:32:11.200 --> 0:32:16.360
<v Speaker 1>predicting away the future. And this is, by the way,

0:32:16.560 --> 0:32:20.680
<v Speaker 1>why the method of torture referred to as the Chinese

0:32:20.760 --> 0:32:24.760
<v Speaker 1>water torture is so aversive to us. The idea is

0:32:24.800 --> 0:32:27.720
<v Speaker 1>that a drop of cold water drips onto your head,

0:32:28.320 --> 0:32:32.080
<v Speaker 1>and then let's say five seconds later, the next draw hits,

0:32:32.560 --> 0:32:35.479
<v Speaker 1>and then the next one three seconds later, and then

0:32:35.520 --> 0:32:39.920
<v Speaker 1>the next drop eight seconds slater, and the next one

0:32:39.960 --> 0:32:43.680
<v Speaker 1>six seconds slater, and then four seconds and suddenly one second,

0:32:43.800 --> 0:32:47.440
<v Speaker 1>and you get the idea. It's unpredictable. Your brain is

0:32:47.640 --> 0:32:52.080
<v Speaker 1>constantly trying to say when an event is going to happen,

0:32:52.480 --> 0:32:55.480
<v Speaker 1>and it's constantly having to pay attention here because it

0:32:55.520 --> 0:32:59.400
<v Speaker 1>can't make a good prediction. And perhaps you've never experienced

0:32:59.440 --> 0:33:03.080
<v Speaker 1>that form of torture explicitly that most of us have

0:33:03.200 --> 0:33:06.280
<v Speaker 1>at some point in our lives, had a leaky faucet

0:33:06.400 --> 0:33:08.720
<v Speaker 1>at our house, and this can often be just as

0:33:08.800 --> 0:33:14.600
<v Speaker 1>bad if it never falls into a rhythm, it goes drip, drip, drip.

0:33:16.680 --> 0:33:20.360
<v Speaker 1>We love rhythm because we can predict it away, and

0:33:20.440 --> 0:33:28.160
<v Speaker 1>anything that is unpredictable continues to demand all our attention. Now,

0:33:28.200 --> 0:33:30.960
<v Speaker 1>I'll just mention that my colleagues and I have proposed

0:33:30.960 --> 0:33:35.920
<v Speaker 1>in various places that maybe the brain activity that we see,

0:33:35.960 --> 0:33:40.400
<v Speaker 1>the spikes and neurons, these represent just the part of

0:33:40.440 --> 0:33:46.360
<v Speaker 1>the world that is unpredicted. In other words, silence is golden,

0:33:46.560 --> 0:33:49.840
<v Speaker 1>and the brain spends most of its efforts trying to

0:33:50.480 --> 0:33:54.240
<v Speaker 1>make perfect predictions of the world and burn that down

0:33:54.320 --> 0:33:56.960
<v Speaker 1>into the circuitry of the brain so it doesn't have

0:33:57.040 --> 0:34:00.360
<v Speaker 1>to use any activity. Now, of course, of course, the

0:34:00.360 --> 0:34:03.840
<v Speaker 1>world is way too complicated to ever reach perfect prediction.

0:34:04.120 --> 0:34:08.799
<v Speaker 1>Everything changes all the time, and so the speculation is

0:34:08.840 --> 0:34:12.040
<v Speaker 1>that the activity that we can measure in the brain,

0:34:12.560 --> 0:34:16.400
<v Speaker 1>whether that's with electrodes or fMRI or whatever, really that

0:34:16.480 --> 0:34:20.480
<v Speaker 1>activity just represents the surprise, the thing that the brain

0:34:20.520 --> 0:34:25.120
<v Speaker 1>didn't see coming. In other words, if you show a

0:34:25.600 --> 0:34:28.520
<v Speaker 1>yellow ball to a monkey and you find cells in

0:34:28.600 --> 0:34:32.759
<v Speaker 1>his brain, say in the visual cortex that respond vigorously

0:34:32.920 --> 0:34:37.440
<v Speaker 1>to that visual thing, then we say those cells prefer

0:34:38.160 --> 0:34:41.200
<v Speaker 1>yellow balls, or more colloquially, we say it likes the

0:34:41.280 --> 0:34:44.879
<v Speaker 1>yellow ball. But could it just be that the appearance

0:34:44.920 --> 0:34:48.120
<v Speaker 1>of a yellow ball was unpredicted by the system and

0:34:48.200 --> 0:34:53.040
<v Speaker 1>the cells activity is merely a reflection of that. This

0:34:53.160 --> 0:34:55.960
<v Speaker 1>is consistent with the fact that if you hide the

0:34:56.000 --> 0:34:59.160
<v Speaker 1>ball and then reshow it to the monkey five seconds later,

0:34:59.640 --> 0:35:04.080
<v Speaker 1>and then you do that again and again, the response diminishes.

0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:08.120
<v Speaker 1>This is known as repetition suppression, and it's not merely

0:35:08.160 --> 0:35:11.879
<v Speaker 1>about fatigue of the cell. Instead, it's the fact that

0:35:11.920 --> 0:35:15.319
<v Speaker 1>the monkey's brain knows that you're about to show the

0:35:15.360 --> 0:35:18.719
<v Speaker 1>stupid ball again, and so it has a prediction of

0:35:18.760 --> 0:35:22.120
<v Speaker 1>what is coming. And when it knows what is coming,

0:35:22.120 --> 0:35:25.560
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't have to burn any energy. We'll come back

0:35:25.600 --> 0:35:28.640
<v Speaker 1>to this in terms of our deep desired to have

0:35:28.800 --> 0:35:33.200
<v Speaker 1>predictions about our lives in just a few moments. But

0:35:33.320 --> 0:35:36.800
<v Speaker 1>first I want to ask can species other than human

0:35:36.920 --> 0:35:43.520
<v Speaker 1>beings engage in prospection and imagination? This question is difficult

0:35:43.520 --> 0:35:48.200
<v Speaker 1>to answer because animals can't verbally report their experiences to us.

0:35:48.680 --> 0:35:52.640
<v Speaker 1>Some researchers think, well, maybe animals lack the capacity for

0:35:52.719 --> 0:35:55.840
<v Speaker 1>this sort of thing, but in fact they do share

0:35:56.000 --> 0:35:59.240
<v Speaker 1>much of the same circuitry that we've been talking about,

0:35:59.680 --> 0:36:03.799
<v Speaker 1>and careful observation their behavior suggests that they have some

0:36:04.120 --> 0:36:10.560
<v Speaker 1>features of episodic memory and prospection. For example, look at

0:36:10.600 --> 0:36:14.640
<v Speaker 1>the scrubjay, which is a bird that stores food away.

0:36:15.200 --> 0:36:18.720
<v Speaker 1>It can recall not just where it hit a particular item,

0:36:19.000 --> 0:36:23.799
<v Speaker 1>but also what that item was and when it was stored. Now,

0:36:23.880 --> 0:36:28.120
<v Speaker 1>skeptics say, okay, look, maybe this is just procedural memory.

0:36:28.160 --> 0:36:31.200
<v Speaker 1>It's like a basic algorithm that's running. It's not conscious,

0:36:31.480 --> 0:36:34.440
<v Speaker 1>and it's just driven by the needs of the moment.

0:36:35.280 --> 0:36:38.560
<v Speaker 1>But the scrub jays also appear to cash food in

0:36:38.600 --> 0:36:43.200
<v Speaker 1>a way that reflects anticipated future needs. It's not just

0:36:43.239 --> 0:36:47.720
<v Speaker 1>their current motivational state. And when you look at rats,

0:36:48.120 --> 0:36:53.040
<v Speaker 1>when people do direct recordings of the hippocampus, that suggests

0:36:53.160 --> 0:36:58.200
<v Speaker 1>that they too might engage in prospection and recollection. So

0:36:58.480 --> 0:37:03.279
<v Speaker 1>as a rat move through adjacent places, you have these

0:37:03.360 --> 0:37:07.759
<v Speaker 1>hippocampal play cells that fire off in sequences, and these

0:37:07.880 --> 0:37:13.200
<v Speaker 1>play cells sometimes replay the activity sequence when the rat

0:37:13.280 --> 0:37:16.920
<v Speaker 1>is not moving, sometimes even when the rat is sleeping

0:37:17.120 --> 0:37:20.719
<v Speaker 1>after the experiment is over, and these cells can also

0:37:21.480 --> 0:37:25.480
<v Speaker 1>pre play a sequence of activity before the rat has

0:37:25.480 --> 0:37:28.920
<v Speaker 1>started to move along the route. So, for example, if

0:37:28.960 --> 0:37:32.239
<v Speaker 1>the rat has to go down a hallway and then

0:37:32.280 --> 0:37:35.160
<v Speaker 1>turn right or left, this is called a te maze,

0:37:35.480 --> 0:37:38.920
<v Speaker 1>and it's trying to decide which path to take. You

0:37:38.960 --> 0:37:43.480
<v Speaker 1>can see these play cells pre play one route and

0:37:43.520 --> 0:37:49.640
<v Speaker 1>then the other, as if in consideration of both these scenarios. Now,

0:37:49.680 --> 0:37:53.640
<v Speaker 1>this research is still early, but these kinds of findings

0:37:53.719 --> 0:37:56.920
<v Speaker 1>might increasingly point us in the direction of at least

0:37:57.040 --> 0:38:02.440
<v Speaker 1>roughly gauging whether our animal cuts and have internal experiences

0:38:03.080 --> 0:38:23.239
<v Speaker 1>of time travel the way that we do. So what

0:38:23.280 --> 0:38:26.080
<v Speaker 1>I've told you so far is how the brain predicts.

0:38:26.719 --> 0:38:30.080
<v Speaker 1>But how does it know how to do this? How

0:38:30.120 --> 0:38:35.280
<v Speaker 1>does it make good predictions about the world. So suppose

0:38:35.320 --> 0:38:38.239
<v Speaker 1>you're hungry and you decide you're going to get something

0:38:38.239 --> 0:38:41.680
<v Speaker 1>to eat. Where should you go? You need to have

0:38:41.840 --> 0:38:44.760
<v Speaker 1>a map in your head of all the nearby choices.

0:38:44.840 --> 0:38:48.320
<v Speaker 1>Then you have to decide which one would most likely

0:38:48.600 --> 0:38:53.560
<v Speaker 1>satisfy your current craving. And so to plan your excursion

0:38:54.160 --> 0:38:57.680
<v Speaker 1>you need to go through your past experiences of meals

0:38:58.080 --> 0:39:00.600
<v Speaker 1>and the places on your map. So you've got that

0:39:00.920 --> 0:39:05.200
<v Speaker 1>inexpensive tie restaurant which is the closest, but the food

0:39:05.280 --> 0:39:08.680
<v Speaker 1>there you remember, was too spicy for your taste. And

0:39:08.760 --> 0:39:11.520
<v Speaker 1>the food truck over there they make great burritos, but

0:39:11.560 --> 0:39:14.920
<v Speaker 1>it always has a really long line in your past experience.

0:39:15.440 --> 0:39:19.120
<v Speaker 1>And the fast food joint over here has fries that

0:39:19.200 --> 0:39:22.200
<v Speaker 1>are a little greasy, but you'd rather take the grease

0:39:22.280 --> 0:39:26.320
<v Speaker 1>than the spice or the long lines. So, putting together

0:39:26.440 --> 0:39:32.160
<v Speaker 1>the experiences of your recalled past and your imagined future,

0:39:32.920 --> 0:39:36.839
<v Speaker 1>you decide on your option. But the past and the

0:39:36.880 --> 0:39:41.320
<v Speaker 1>future are intertwined in most of our decisions. In other words,

0:39:41.880 --> 0:39:45.640
<v Speaker 1>the thing that allows the brain to construct possible futures

0:39:46.080 --> 0:39:50.719
<v Speaker 1>is memory. Memory is what allows us to write down

0:39:50.760 --> 0:39:55.480
<v Speaker 1>information and then use that as building blocks to build

0:39:55.480 --> 0:39:59.520
<v Speaker 1>out our future scenarios. Now, interestingly, that's not even a

0:39:59.560 --> 0:40:04.000
<v Speaker 1>new idea. Aristotle suspected this, as did Galen and all

0:40:04.040 --> 0:40:09.680
<v Speaker 1>their medieval commentators. They all emphasized memory as the key

0:40:09.760 --> 0:40:14.560
<v Speaker 1>tool in making successful predictions for the future. And in fact,

0:40:14.640 --> 0:40:18.239
<v Speaker 1>something that I find very interesting, presumably coincidental but maybe not,

0:40:19.040 --> 0:40:23.920
<v Speaker 1>is that in Greek mythology, the goddess of memory, Nemazine,

0:40:24.760 --> 0:40:28.680
<v Speaker 1>is the mother of the nine muses, who are the

0:40:28.719 --> 0:40:33.480
<v Speaker 1>goddesses who spark the imagination. In other words, memory is

0:40:33.520 --> 0:40:38.440
<v Speaker 1>the mother of imagination. Now, my friend and colleague Jeff

0:40:38.480 --> 0:40:42.480
<v Speaker 1>Hawkins made the argument that what we call intelligence boils

0:40:42.520 --> 0:40:45.640
<v Speaker 1>down to the brain's ability to make good predictions about

0:40:45.680 --> 0:40:50.319
<v Speaker 1>the world based on stored memories. In his version of

0:40:50.360 --> 0:40:55.960
<v Speaker 1>the memory prediction paradigm, the cortex is a pattern recognition

0:40:56.120 --> 0:41:01.640
<v Speaker 1>machine that breaks complicated events into smaller bunks. It stores

0:41:01.719 --> 0:41:05.440
<v Speaker 1>experiences in a way that reflects the structure of the world,

0:41:05.440 --> 0:41:10.000
<v Speaker 1>and then it's springboards off these known experiences to make predictions.

0:41:10.000 --> 0:41:13.799
<v Speaker 1>As Hawkins puts it, intelligence is the capacity of the

0:41:13.840 --> 0:41:20.959
<v Speaker 1>brain to predict the future by analogy to the past. Now, fascinatingly,

0:41:21.000 --> 0:41:24.759
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and seven, Demisesabis and his colleagues at

0:41:24.800 --> 0:41:29.560
<v Speaker 1>London's Institute of Neurology made this really striking observation that

0:41:29.880 --> 0:41:34.000
<v Speaker 1>patience who had damage to their hippocampus not only had

0:41:34.320 --> 0:41:41.280
<v Speaker 1>amnesia for past experiences, but also couldn't imagine new ones.

0:41:41.640 --> 0:41:44.960
<v Speaker 1>So if you ask a patient with this brain damage

0:41:45.239 --> 0:41:47.600
<v Speaker 1>to remember his past, he can't do that, and we

0:41:47.680 --> 0:41:51.160
<v Speaker 1>expected that. But now you ask him to imagine the future,

0:41:51.480 --> 0:41:53.200
<v Speaker 1>and he just can't do it. You ask him to

0:41:53.960 --> 0:41:57.839
<v Speaker 1>imagine standing in a museum full of exhibits and he'll

0:41:57.840 --> 0:42:01.640
<v Speaker 1>say something like there's not a lot coming, I'm not

0:42:02.040 --> 0:42:06.640
<v Speaker 1>picturing anything. Or you might say, hey, look, imagine going

0:42:06.680 --> 0:42:09.760
<v Speaker 1>on a vacation to the beach. Really picture yourself lying

0:42:09.800 --> 0:42:12.600
<v Speaker 1>there on the beach, and describe the scene to me.

0:42:13.840 --> 0:42:16.799
<v Speaker 1>And the person might be able to say, well, there's

0:42:16.840 --> 0:42:20.960
<v Speaker 1>a blue sky, or maybe they describe an isolated sound,

0:42:21.080 --> 0:42:25.400
<v Speaker 1>but that's it. Otherwise they just draw a blank. And

0:42:25.440 --> 0:42:28.120
<v Speaker 1>by the way, if you provide the person with pictures

0:42:28.160 --> 0:42:31.160
<v Speaker 1>and sounds and smells to help them along, that doesn't

0:42:31.200 --> 0:42:36.040
<v Speaker 1>help them to imagine the scene. So unlike a healthy control,

0:42:36.840 --> 0:42:41.880
<v Speaker 1>the patient with hippocampal damage just can't simulate any vivid details.

0:42:41.920 --> 0:42:45.239
<v Speaker 1>It's not like an episode to them the way that

0:42:45.280 --> 0:42:49.160
<v Speaker 1>your imagination is. Their descriptions, if they exist at all,

0:42:49.200 --> 0:42:54.200
<v Speaker 1>are very unspecific. So the healthy control can describe a

0:42:54.280 --> 0:42:58.320
<v Speaker 1>spatial layout and people being present, and descriptions of the

0:42:58.320 --> 0:43:01.680
<v Speaker 1>smells and sights and sounds, thoughts and emotions they might have,

0:43:01.840 --> 0:43:05.040
<v Speaker 1>and actions they might take. But the patient with the

0:43:05.120 --> 0:43:10.080
<v Speaker 1>hippocampal damage can't do any of that. At best. What

0:43:10.120 --> 0:43:13.000
<v Speaker 1>they're able to come up with has a lack of

0:43:13.320 --> 0:43:18.759
<v Speaker 1>spatial coherence. The imagined experience is just a collection of

0:43:18.800 --> 0:43:24.360
<v Speaker 1>fragmentary sensations instead of a unified episode. In a particular setting,

0:43:25.600 --> 0:43:27.520
<v Speaker 1>you can ask them what they'll see if they go

0:43:27.600 --> 0:43:30.000
<v Speaker 1>over to a shopping mall, or what they might want

0:43:30.040 --> 0:43:32.279
<v Speaker 1>to eat if they go to a restaurant, and they

0:43:32.520 --> 0:43:35.360
<v Speaker 1>just draw a blank. They can only put together a

0:43:35.440 --> 0:43:39.239
<v Speaker 1>few details that are not well connected. So the deficits

0:43:39.360 --> 0:43:44.040
<v Speaker 1>in their memories apply to their simulations of the future

0:43:44.200 --> 0:43:47.919
<v Speaker 1>as well. Now, how do we understand this in terms

0:43:47.960 --> 0:43:51.680
<v Speaker 1>of the circuitry. Well, the key came from brain imaging

0:43:51.719 --> 0:43:55.000
<v Speaker 1>studies in the past two decades, which have uncovered that

0:43:55.040 --> 0:43:59.560
<v Speaker 1>there's a network of regions involved both for remembering the

0:43:59.600 --> 0:44:03.480
<v Speaker 1>past and imagining new ones. It's the same areas, so

0:44:03.520 --> 0:44:06.640
<v Speaker 1>the hippocampus and its surrounding area. That's one part of this,

0:44:07.239 --> 0:44:11.240
<v Speaker 1>but we also find several other areas like the medial,

0:44:11.280 --> 0:44:15.000
<v Speaker 1>prial cortex and prefront areas, and the lateral, temporal and

0:44:15.080 --> 0:44:20.240
<v Speaker 1>lateral pride lobes. All these regions are important for elaborating

0:44:20.239 --> 0:44:26.000
<v Speaker 1>on the details of imagined and also for remembered episodes. So,

0:44:26.120 --> 0:44:30.160
<v Speaker 1>in other words, the brain's episodic memory systems, which we

0:44:30.239 --> 0:44:34.200
<v Speaker 1>discussed in the last episode, are just as important for

0:44:34.280 --> 0:44:41.319
<v Speaker 1>imagining future experiences. In other words, this core network underlies

0:44:41.560 --> 0:44:46.520
<v Speaker 1>mental time travel in either direction. So this leads to

0:44:46.560 --> 0:44:50.000
<v Speaker 1>a really interesting thought about something, which is that if

0:44:50.120 --> 0:44:53.800
<v Speaker 1>recall of the past and simulation of the future both

0:44:54.000 --> 0:44:58.520
<v Speaker 1>use the same network, then maybe what we mean by

0:44:58.600 --> 0:45:02.279
<v Speaker 1>memory is something more like simulation. So I want to

0:45:02.320 --> 0:45:07.279
<v Speaker 1>propose this hypothesis that memories are not the fundamental thing,

0:45:07.320 --> 0:45:11.439
<v Speaker 1>but instead simulation is the fundamental thing, and memories are

0:45:11.480 --> 0:45:16.360
<v Speaker 1>just a special type of simulation. A memory is merely

0:45:16.400 --> 0:45:20.319
<v Speaker 1>a simulation that's pinned down to always flow a particular way.

0:45:21.040 --> 0:45:22.839
<v Speaker 1>And if this is the right way to look at it,

0:45:23.280 --> 0:45:28.880
<v Speaker 1>maybe what we call remembrance we will someday call resimulation.

0:45:29.840 --> 0:45:33.360
<v Speaker 1>So instead of dividing the territory into memory and prediction,

0:45:33.800 --> 0:45:37.880
<v Speaker 1>they may in fact be one thing. Any context is

0:45:38.000 --> 0:45:43.960
<v Speaker 1>run through a simulation to predict the outcome. So brains

0:45:44.120 --> 0:45:48.560
<v Speaker 1>simulate possible futures, and we constantly function by making predictions

0:45:48.560 --> 0:45:51.439
<v Speaker 1>about everything in our lives and our communities and our

0:45:51.719 --> 0:45:54.359
<v Speaker 1>nation and the world. But I want to be clear

0:45:54.400 --> 0:45:57.880
<v Speaker 1>that even though we use the word prediction, there's no

0:45:58.000 --> 0:46:03.000
<v Speaker 1>guarantee of accuracy. We are actually pretty bad at capturing

0:46:03.040 --> 0:46:07.520
<v Speaker 1>the future. As the baseball catcher Yogi Bearra said, it's

0:46:07.640 --> 0:46:13.440
<v Speaker 1>tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Why is

0:46:13.520 --> 0:46:18.479
<v Speaker 1>it tough. It's because we only simulate based on our

0:46:18.680 --> 0:46:23.640
<v Speaker 1>experience in the world. So if you've never seen something before,

0:46:24.160 --> 0:46:27.399
<v Speaker 1>you're going to have a pretty bad prediction about it.

0:46:28.239 --> 0:46:31.440
<v Speaker 1>For example, futurists make all kinds of predictions about the

0:46:31.480 --> 0:46:34.279
<v Speaker 1>next decade or two, and most of them turn out

0:46:34.320 --> 0:46:38.319
<v Speaker 1>to be wrong. In one study of famous forecasters, it

0:46:38.400 --> 0:46:42.520
<v Speaker 1>was found that their predictions were between ten to fifty

0:46:42.560 --> 0:46:46.640
<v Speaker 1>percent accuracy, which certainly isn't that great. But it's not

0:46:46.719 --> 0:46:49.480
<v Speaker 1>just futurists. It's all of us, with most of our

0:46:49.480 --> 0:46:54.080
<v Speaker 1>predictions about our lives, and by the way, our inability

0:46:54.200 --> 0:46:56.920
<v Speaker 1>to see the future, well, this is why we have

0:46:57.000 --> 0:47:03.040
<v Speaker 1>the existence of magicians or mystery writers or scam artists.

0:47:03.600 --> 0:47:06.200
<v Speaker 1>These are people who take advantage of the fact that

0:47:06.320 --> 0:47:10.320
<v Speaker 1>our ability to predict the future is not very good.

0:47:10.840 --> 0:47:14.280
<v Speaker 1>The magician knows that we're going to predict the location

0:47:14.360 --> 0:47:18.279
<v Speaker 1>of the object incorrectly and then will be surprised. The

0:47:18.600 --> 0:47:22.000
<v Speaker 1>mystery novelist knows that he can lead us down a

0:47:22.040 --> 0:47:26.239
<v Speaker 1>garden path and that we will extrapolate incorrectly in the

0:47:26.239 --> 0:47:29.719
<v Speaker 1>direction that he wants us to, so we don't correctly

0:47:29.880 --> 0:47:33.960
<v Speaker 1>see what's going to happen. The scam artist does the

0:47:34.000 --> 0:47:37.319
<v Speaker 1>same thing, but in real life, getting our brains to

0:47:37.480 --> 0:47:41.319
<v Speaker 1>see a vision of success that doesn't actually match with

0:47:41.440 --> 0:47:44.920
<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen. Now, I'll just note something here,

0:47:44.960 --> 0:47:48.480
<v Speaker 1>which is that's sometimes our inability to make good predictions

0:47:48.920 --> 0:47:52.480
<v Speaker 1>that helps us. So take the origin of the Oxford

0:47:52.520 --> 0:47:57.719
<v Speaker 1>English Dictionary, where a professor who loved words said, you

0:47:57.760 --> 0:47:59.840
<v Speaker 1>know what, I'm going to write down a definition for

0:48:00.120 --> 0:48:03.720
<v Speaker 1>every word there is. This can't take very long, especially

0:48:03.760 --> 0:48:06.920
<v Speaker 1>if I recruit help from others, which he did. But

0:48:07.040 --> 0:48:11.120
<v Speaker 1>despite an insane amount of work, the Oxford English Dictionary

0:48:11.200 --> 0:48:16.799
<v Speaker 1>finally got finished eighty years after his death. He would

0:48:16.840 --> 0:48:20.360
<v Speaker 1>have never started it had he been a good predictor.

0:48:20.400 --> 0:48:25.120
<v Speaker 1>So there's something useful about our optimism bias in the

0:48:25.120 --> 0:48:29.080
<v Speaker 1>form of our bad predictions. Now, we've all experienced this

0:48:29.239 --> 0:48:32.640
<v Speaker 1>kind of bad prediction on smaller levels, where we assume

0:48:33.040 --> 0:48:35.840
<v Speaker 1>that some task is going to take us less time

0:48:36.160 --> 0:48:39.520
<v Speaker 1>than it actually does. We also experience this on the

0:48:39.600 --> 0:48:43.120
<v Speaker 1>level of most of our life trajectories, where we think,

0:48:43.400 --> 0:48:45.760
<v Speaker 1>all right, I generally know where my life is going,

0:48:46.520 --> 0:48:49.040
<v Speaker 1>but if you look back at any decade of your life,

0:48:49.040 --> 0:48:53.200
<v Speaker 1>you'll realize that your predictions generally weren't so good. Why

0:48:53.719 --> 0:48:57.080
<v Speaker 1>it's because the only way we can make predictions is

0:48:57.120 --> 0:49:01.120
<v Speaker 1>by leveraging our memories what has all ready happen to us.

0:49:01.560 --> 0:49:06.000
<v Speaker 1>The memories serve as building blocks, and all we're able

0:49:06.040 --> 0:49:09.000
<v Speaker 1>to do is use those building blocks to make versions

0:49:09.040 --> 0:49:13.160
<v Speaker 1>of the future, which is really just an edifice constructed

0:49:13.200 --> 0:49:16.719
<v Speaker 1>of the bricks that we've seen before. And that's why

0:49:16.760 --> 0:49:22.400
<v Speaker 1>we are so inherently limited in seeing what's coming. And

0:49:22.440 --> 0:49:25.560
<v Speaker 1>there's a very specific way that we're terrible at predicting

0:49:25.600 --> 0:49:29.560
<v Speaker 1>the future. We generally assume the future will just be

0:49:29.640 --> 0:49:34.120
<v Speaker 1>a straightforward extension of the present in our lives. We

0:49:34.200 --> 0:49:37.480
<v Speaker 1>assume that we have changed up to this point, but

0:49:37.840 --> 0:49:41.279
<v Speaker 1>we're going to remain about like this from here on out.

0:49:41.760 --> 0:49:45.279
<v Speaker 1>For example, when people think back to their childhoods, they

0:49:45.280 --> 0:49:49.040
<v Speaker 1>see lots of change in their own bodies and personalities

0:49:49.080 --> 0:49:52.239
<v Speaker 1>and beliefs, and also in the technology that surrounds them.

0:49:52.920 --> 0:49:55.960
<v Speaker 1>But when people are asked to think about the future,

0:49:56.600 --> 0:49:59.880
<v Speaker 1>they generally assume everything is going to be roughly this

0:50:00.080 --> 0:50:02.400
<v Speaker 1>same as it is now. Maybe you'll have a little

0:50:02.440 --> 0:50:05.719
<v Speaker 1>more gray hair, maybe your electric car will have a

0:50:05.800 --> 0:50:09.279
<v Speaker 1>longer range, but that's about it. We feel like we've

0:50:09.440 --> 0:50:13.279
<v Speaker 1>arrived after a steep path and now the world will

0:50:13.360 --> 0:50:17.160
<v Speaker 1>mostly stay fixed as it is. So we think things

0:50:17.160 --> 0:50:19.560
<v Speaker 1>are going to stay as they are. And nowhere is

0:50:19.600 --> 0:50:24.840
<v Speaker 1>this more true than with our predictions about technology. The

0:50:24.920 --> 0:50:28.080
<v Speaker 1>fact is, the world is changing faster than ever as

0:50:28.200 --> 0:50:32.120
<v Speaker 1>a result of the law of accelerating returns, which simply

0:50:32.160 --> 0:50:37.000
<v Speaker 1>says that the more technology advances, the faster the next

0:50:37.040 --> 0:50:40.640
<v Speaker 1>generation of technology is going to advance. And we find

0:50:40.680 --> 0:50:45.120
<v Speaker 1>ourselves now at the cusp of such fundamental revolutions, not

0:50:45.160 --> 0:50:50.520
<v Speaker 1>only artificial intelligence, but also nanotech and biotech and quantum

0:50:50.520 --> 0:50:56.320
<v Speaker 1>computing and room temperature superconductivity and energy storage and genetic

0:50:56.400 --> 0:51:00.239
<v Speaker 1>engineering and on and on. All of these things going

0:51:00.320 --> 0:51:04.800
<v Speaker 1>to weave together in ways that we can't currently imagine.

0:51:04.880 --> 0:51:08.160
<v Speaker 1>And we are standing on an exponential curve that's about

0:51:08.239 --> 0:51:11.560
<v Speaker 1>to rise at a steeper slope than we've ever seen,

0:51:12.480 --> 0:51:16.960
<v Speaker 1>but we can't see it clearly coming. Why again, it's

0:51:17.000 --> 0:51:20.760
<v Speaker 1>because we rely on our memories to paint our vision

0:51:20.800 --> 0:51:25.960
<v Speaker 1>of the future, so our predictions are limited to remixes

0:51:26.000 --> 0:51:29.800
<v Speaker 1>of our past, which makes it really difficult to anticipate

0:51:30.520 --> 0:51:35.879
<v Speaker 1>the significant disruptions heading our way. And there's one other

0:51:35.960 --> 0:51:39.200
<v Speaker 1>issue here for our lives, because we're always trying to

0:51:39.239 --> 0:51:43.240
<v Speaker 1>make good predictions and therefore save brain energy. We really

0:51:43.280 --> 0:51:47.360
<v Speaker 1>hate change. I mentioned before how we don't like the

0:51:47.480 --> 0:51:51.680
<v Speaker 1>dripping faucet because it's unpredictable, But this hatred of the

0:51:51.800 --> 0:51:56.919
<v Speaker 1>unpredictable applies to everything, including being told that things will

0:51:57.000 --> 0:52:01.200
<v Speaker 1>change in the future, like climate change. Climate change makes

0:52:01.200 --> 0:52:04.000
<v Speaker 1>people very anxious because you look at a map of

0:52:04.040 --> 0:52:06.359
<v Speaker 1>the world and you see that over the next x

0:52:06.440 --> 0:52:11.320
<v Speaker 1>number of decades people will be shifting around as temperatures increase.

0:52:11.800 --> 0:52:15.880
<v Speaker 1>And we hate that because fundamentally we feel most comfortable

0:52:16.360 --> 0:52:20.200
<v Speaker 1>if things stay exactly the way they are. Like you

0:52:20.360 --> 0:52:23.759
<v Speaker 1>want to imagine that your house, which is exactly two

0:52:23.800 --> 0:52:26.360
<v Speaker 1>hundred and fifty seven feet from the shore of the ocean,

0:52:26.840 --> 0:52:31.880
<v Speaker 1>will remain precisely where it is centuries from now, But

0:52:32.000 --> 0:52:35.080
<v Speaker 1>of course it won't, even if you put aside everything

0:52:35.120 --> 0:52:39.719
<v Speaker 1>about man made pollution. The shorelines always change. Where I

0:52:39.800 --> 0:52:44.439
<v Speaker 1>live in California, the beach used to extend miles farther out.

0:52:44.520 --> 0:52:47.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm talking about fourteen thousand years ago, and when the

0:52:47.640 --> 0:52:51.080
<v Speaker 1>ice Age ended and the glaciers melted, the sea level

0:52:51.360 --> 0:52:54.600
<v Speaker 1>rose and ate up all of that beach. And that's

0:52:54.640 --> 0:52:58.560
<v Speaker 1>why we don't find coastal settlements from the first people

0:52:58.600 --> 0:53:01.960
<v Speaker 1>from Asia who came across cross the bearing Land Bridge

0:53:02.000 --> 0:53:05.960
<v Speaker 1>and settled here fourteen thousand years ago. Things were totally

0:53:05.960 --> 0:53:08.759
<v Speaker 1>different at that time. For example, there was no San

0:53:08.800 --> 0:53:12.000
<v Speaker 1>Francisco Bay. There was no water there that was all

0:53:12.040 --> 0:53:15.200
<v Speaker 1>locked up in glaciers. When any of us who live

0:53:15.280 --> 0:53:19.040
<v Speaker 1>here look at the San Francisco Bay, we imagine it's permanent,

0:53:19.080 --> 0:53:21.360
<v Speaker 1>but of course it's not. If you were one of

0:53:21.400 --> 0:53:24.719
<v Speaker 1>the first settlers in North America, the place would have

0:53:24.719 --> 0:53:28.000
<v Speaker 1>looked very different to you. You could have walked across

0:53:28.360 --> 0:53:31.239
<v Speaker 1>from what is now the city of San Francisco over

0:53:31.280 --> 0:53:34.839
<v Speaker 1>to Alcatraz without getting a single drop of water on

0:53:34.880 --> 0:53:40.479
<v Speaker 1>your feet. It's easy to study geography retrospectively and say, wow,

0:53:40.560 --> 0:53:43.520
<v Speaker 1>that's interesting. But when we look in the forward direction,

0:53:44.040 --> 0:53:47.160
<v Speaker 1>we get very anxious at the thought that populations of

0:53:47.160 --> 0:53:50.839
<v Speaker 1>people will move around and borders will change. Now that's

0:53:50.840 --> 0:53:54.040
<v Speaker 1>not to minimize what's happening with climate change, but it

0:53:54.120 --> 0:53:58.520
<v Speaker 1>is to say that change has always happened. I mean,

0:53:58.560 --> 0:54:02.360
<v Speaker 1>the last little ice Age just ended in eighteen fifty,

0:54:02.719 --> 0:54:05.920
<v Speaker 1>where for five hundred years it was two degrees colder

0:54:06.360 --> 0:54:10.239
<v Speaker 1>in Europe and mountain glaciers expanded and people had to

0:54:10.280 --> 0:54:14.000
<v Speaker 1>move around. The only issue I'm pointing to here is

0:54:14.000 --> 0:54:18.080
<v Speaker 1>that even though the world has always changed, we want

0:54:18.120 --> 0:54:22.600
<v Speaker 1>it to stay stable now. We fundamentally want to imagine

0:54:22.600 --> 0:54:26.120
<v Speaker 1>the future of the world looking exactly as we know

0:54:26.239 --> 0:54:30.399
<v Speaker 1>it now. And you can see this as easily at

0:54:30.480 --> 0:54:34.040
<v Speaker 1>small scales as you do on the large scales. For example,

0:54:34.040 --> 0:54:36.760
<v Speaker 1>in this past month, there have been a new round

0:54:36.800 --> 0:54:40.240
<v Speaker 1>of company layoffs in Silicon Valley, and this makes people

0:54:40.320 --> 0:54:44.320
<v Speaker 1>so nervous and anxious. Now, most people who have lost

0:54:44.320 --> 0:54:48.240
<v Speaker 1>a job end up saying later that they're happy because

0:54:48.280 --> 0:54:52.200
<v Speaker 1>it opens up new opportunities for them and exposes them

0:54:52.440 --> 0:54:54.840
<v Speaker 1>to things they didn't even know. They didn't know and

0:54:54.920 --> 0:54:58.399
<v Speaker 1>they realized there was more out there to be experienced

0:54:58.440 --> 0:55:02.680
<v Speaker 1>in the world. And yet the change itself proves very

0:55:02.719 --> 0:55:05.399
<v Speaker 1>hard for people in the moment. It's as though their

0:55:05.440 --> 0:55:08.560
<v Speaker 1>brains are screaming out for everything to stay exactly the

0:55:08.600 --> 0:55:12.080
<v Speaker 1>same as it was. Why, Because we are creatures who

0:55:12.160 --> 0:55:15.520
<v Speaker 1>try to predict Our brains are designed to do that

0:55:15.640 --> 0:55:19.560
<v Speaker 1>to save energy, and the most anxiety producing thing for

0:55:19.640 --> 0:55:22.880
<v Speaker 1>the accuracy of our predictions is when the world itself

0:55:23.000 --> 0:55:26.399
<v Speaker 1>changes out from under you. As an example, I've been

0:55:26.400 --> 0:55:30.600
<v Speaker 1>on the boards of many organizations. When somebody resigns and

0:55:30.760 --> 0:55:34.239
<v Speaker 1>so much trauma for the board, there's a long discussion

0:55:34.280 --> 0:55:38.719
<v Speaker 1>about how to keep the organization together. Everybody's feelings are bubbling,

0:55:39.120 --> 0:55:42.920
<v Speaker 1>and then the conversation eventually turns to how this presents

0:55:43.000 --> 0:55:46.080
<v Speaker 1>a real opportunity for us to mix things up, to

0:55:46.160 --> 0:55:48.919
<v Speaker 1>inject new blood, to do things in a way that's

0:55:48.960 --> 0:55:52.840
<v Speaker 1>no longer stale. It's fascinating to watch the conversation always

0:55:52.920 --> 0:55:56.480
<v Speaker 1>follow the same trajectory, as though everyone is reading from

0:55:56.480 --> 0:56:00.759
<v Speaker 1>a script. It reminds me of a notion from The

0:56:00.800 --> 0:56:06.320
<v Speaker 1>Simpsons where Homer is anxious about something and Lisa, his daughter, says,

0:56:06.880 --> 0:56:09.600
<v Speaker 1>look on the bright side, Dad, Did you know that

0:56:09.640 --> 0:56:12.879
<v Speaker 1>the Chinese use the same word for crisis as they

0:56:12.880 --> 0:56:18.200
<v Speaker 1>do for opportunity, and Homer says, yes, chrisis as tunity.

0:56:18.239 --> 0:56:22.359
<v Speaker 1>The point is that change of any sort presents a

0:56:22.560 --> 0:56:26.000
<v Speaker 1>crisis to the predictive systems of the brain, but it

0:56:26.040 --> 0:56:30.719
<v Speaker 1>is eventually seen as an opportunity. The bottom line is

0:56:30.760 --> 0:56:33.200
<v Speaker 1>that we get used to the world and we don't

0:56:33.239 --> 0:56:38.240
<v Speaker 1>want things to change. So, given that our predictive ability

0:56:38.280 --> 0:56:40.319
<v Speaker 1>is not so great and that we don't want things

0:56:40.320 --> 0:56:43.640
<v Speaker 1>to change, how did we ever become so successful as

0:56:43.680 --> 0:56:47.719
<v Speaker 1>a species. Well, the first answer is science. When it

0:56:47.719 --> 0:56:50.839
<v Speaker 1>comes to predicting big issues in the real world, our

0:56:50.880 --> 0:56:54.440
<v Speaker 1>intuitions just aren't up for the task. Our brains always

0:56:54.520 --> 0:56:58.080
<v Speaker 1>make predictions, but human brains are small and they're not

0:56:58.160 --> 0:57:02.440
<v Speaker 1>nearly as good as groups of brains working together, and

0:57:02.480 --> 0:57:06.080
<v Speaker 1>the scientific method simply gives us away a set of

0:57:06.160 --> 0:57:11.680
<v Speaker 1>rules for working together to find the most accurate predictions. Fundamentally,

0:57:11.960 --> 0:57:15.719
<v Speaker 1>that's all science is figuring out the rules so we

0:57:15.800 --> 0:57:20.440
<v Speaker 1>can best predict the future. But I want to highlight

0:57:20.480 --> 0:57:24.080
<v Speaker 1>what I propose is a second reason that humans got

0:57:24.120 --> 0:57:26.720
<v Speaker 1>really good at predicting the future, and this is perhaps

0:57:26.760 --> 0:57:31.200
<v Speaker 1>a more surprising reason why our species has become a

0:57:31.320 --> 0:57:40.400
<v Speaker 1>runaway species, and that reason is storytelling. So literature like stories, novels,

0:57:40.400 --> 0:57:44.160
<v Speaker 1>and movies. This is critically important for the success of

0:57:44.200 --> 0:57:48.120
<v Speaker 1>our species because we can take one person's imagined stories

0:57:48.200 --> 0:57:50.520
<v Speaker 1>something they've worked out all the pieces and parts of

0:57:50.560 --> 0:57:54.040
<v Speaker 1>over a long time, and that author can make that

0:57:54.200 --> 0:57:59.160
<v Speaker 1>scenario real for us, He can reify it. So stories

0:57:59.280 --> 0:58:05.280
<v Speaker 1>allow us to experience possible futures. Just think, for example,

0:58:05.280 --> 0:58:08.960
<v Speaker 1>of the nineteen eighties movie The Day After. It was

0:58:09.040 --> 0:58:11.760
<v Speaker 1>about nuclear war and what it is to wake up

0:58:11.880 --> 0:58:15.200
<v Speaker 1>the day after America has been turned to rubble by

0:58:15.280 --> 0:58:19.640
<v Speaker 1>nuclear bombs. It took something that required an unusually rich

0:58:19.680 --> 0:58:24.520
<v Speaker 1>imagination and it allowed us to see it, to experience

0:58:24.600 --> 0:58:29.920
<v Speaker 1>a situation that otherwise would have remained purely conceptual. And

0:58:29.960 --> 0:58:32.440
<v Speaker 1>this is why stories are so important. They allow us

0:58:32.520 --> 0:58:37.040
<v Speaker 1>to live in worlds that we otherwise would not, and

0:58:37.080 --> 0:58:40.440
<v Speaker 1>then that gives us new memories that we can use

0:58:40.760 --> 0:58:44.600
<v Speaker 1>as new building blocks to see a little farther out

0:58:44.640 --> 0:58:48.480
<v Speaker 1>than we would have otherwise. In this sense, literature allows

0:58:48.560 --> 0:58:51.520
<v Speaker 1>us to get out of our heads and share the

0:58:51.640 --> 0:58:54.880
<v Speaker 1>creative headspace of someone else who has thought down a

0:58:54.920 --> 0:58:59.000
<v Speaker 1>particular path, probably in great detail, and then we get

0:58:59.000 --> 0:59:03.200
<v Speaker 1>to enjoy that person's guidance. And the key, as far

0:59:03.240 --> 0:59:06.560
<v Speaker 1>as we can tell, is that other species, for example,

0:59:06.680 --> 0:59:11.680
<v Speaker 1>hippopotamuses don't tell stories around the campfire. And it's not

0:59:11.720 --> 0:59:15.320
<v Speaker 1>just hippopotamuses, but every other one of the millions of

0:59:15.440 --> 0:59:18.880
<v Speaker 1>species of animals on this earth. We have no evidence

0:59:19.280 --> 0:59:23.120
<v Speaker 1>that any of them tells stories. So the way I

0:59:23.160 --> 0:59:25.600
<v Speaker 1>think about this is that they just have a lot

0:59:25.760 --> 0:59:31.680
<v Speaker 1>less practice expanding beyond their own limited experience of the world.

0:59:31.920 --> 0:59:35.400
<v Speaker 1>But we spend a ton of our time imagining what's

0:59:35.480 --> 0:59:39.080
<v Speaker 1>not there. We are mental time travelers, and we use

0:59:39.160 --> 0:59:42.520
<v Speaker 1>other people's stories and books to get there. The class

0:59:42.520 --> 0:59:46.000
<v Speaker 1>that I'm teaching at Stanford this quarter is Literature and

0:59:46.080 --> 0:59:49.560
<v Speaker 1>the Brain. What I find so extraordinary about the active

0:59:49.640 --> 0:59:53.240
<v Speaker 1>reading is that we use a string of symbols to

0:59:53.480 --> 0:59:57.680
<v Speaker 1>fire up this whole imagination engine and to have us

0:59:57.880 --> 1:00:01.640
<v Speaker 1>live through scenarios. And I propose that we have come

1:00:01.720 --> 1:00:05.920
<v Speaker 1>to beat out every animal species on the planet, including

1:00:05.960 --> 1:00:08.640
<v Speaker 1>lions and tigers and bears, all of whom could tear

1:00:08.720 --> 1:00:12.000
<v Speaker 1>us to shreds easily. We have beat them out because

1:00:12.000 --> 1:00:16.280
<v Speaker 1>of stories. We have these fierce animals in our zoos

1:00:16.640 --> 1:00:20.480
<v Speaker 1>in every city, and they have no humans in their zoos.

1:00:21.040 --> 1:00:24.320
<v Speaker 1>It's not just about guns and spears, it's about planning.

1:00:25.080 --> 1:00:30.000
<v Speaker 1>We can capture them because we can outthink them. So

1:00:30.160 --> 1:00:32.760
<v Speaker 1>I posed at the beginning of the episode a question,

1:00:32.920 --> 1:00:36.920
<v Speaker 1>what would I advise the president if we found ourselves

1:00:37.040 --> 1:00:41.360
<v Speaker 1>at war with extraterrestrials. Well, here's what If we land

1:00:41.440 --> 1:00:45.880
<v Speaker 1>on a planet with fierce bug like creatures, we shouldn't

1:00:45.880 --> 1:00:49.680
<v Speaker 1>worry too much about their capacity to be anything but reactive.

1:00:49.880 --> 1:00:53.880
<v Speaker 1>We will probably be able to trick them, to outflank them,

1:00:53.920 --> 1:00:58.120
<v Speaker 1>to outthink them. But if we discover that these creatures

1:00:58.360 --> 1:01:03.440
<v Speaker 1>also have life libraries, we should quietly turn around and

1:01:03.600 --> 1:01:07.800
<v Speaker 1>sneak away, because it means they have exposed themselves to

1:01:08.080 --> 1:01:13.320
<v Speaker 1>thousands of other worlds beyond what they could otherwise experience,

1:01:13.880 --> 1:01:20.000
<v Speaker 1>and that cognitive practice makes them potentially a very wily opponent.

1:01:21.160 --> 1:01:25.560
<v Speaker 1>The degree to which an alien species has literature will

1:01:25.600 --> 1:01:29.560
<v Speaker 1>tell us how good they are at predicting possible futures

1:01:29.600 --> 1:01:34.200
<v Speaker 1>and developing rich scenarios of what ifs. It allows them

1:01:34.480 --> 1:01:40.720
<v Speaker 1>to expand their experiences far beyond a single head. So

1:01:40.840 --> 1:01:44.360
<v Speaker 1>let's wrap up what we saw today is that brains

1:01:44.640 --> 1:01:48.880
<v Speaker 1>simulate possible futures, and brains do this by relying on

1:01:49.040 --> 1:01:53.720
<v Speaker 1>the lessons of the past. This makes your memory the

1:01:53.760 --> 1:01:57.880
<v Speaker 1>mother of your imagination, just like the goddess of memory

1:01:58.240 --> 1:02:02.400
<v Speaker 1>gave birth to the muses. Now, in the last two episodes,

1:02:02.440 --> 1:02:06.200
<v Speaker 1>we've talked about running simulations in the backward direction, which

1:02:06.200 --> 1:02:08.960
<v Speaker 1>we call memory, and running them in the forward direction,

1:02:09.040 --> 1:02:13.320
<v Speaker 1>which is how we envision possible futures. But everything I've

1:02:13.320 --> 1:02:16.440
<v Speaker 1>told you so far is just a setup, because that

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<v Speaker 1>is just the beginning. Come back next week to see

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<v Speaker 1>how now we can leverage this concept of time travel

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<v Speaker 1>to deeply understand why our mental lives are as nuanced

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<v Speaker 1>and colorful and complex as they are simulating. Next week,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm David Eagleman, and this is Inner Cosmos. In the meantime,

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<v Speaker 1>go to eagleman dot com slash podcast for more information

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<v Speaker 1>and to find further reading. Send me an email at

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<v Speaker 1>podcasts at eagleman dot com with questions or discussion, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'll be making episodes in which I address those until

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<v Speaker 1>next time. Thank you for joining me in the outermost

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<v Speaker 1>reaches of the Inner Cosmos