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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 3: What do we have Crystal.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we do hope everybody enjoyed their Labor Day off,

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Speaker 1: as we certainly did.

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Speaker 4: A lot to get to.

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Speaker 1: So this is the official launch of peak campaign season

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Speaker 1: now post Labor Day and one state actually starts voting

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Speaker 1: literally this week.

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Speaker 4: Debate is next week.

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Speaker 1: We're going to be live streaming that, by the way,

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Speaker 1: so join us here for that, right, So a lot

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Speaker 1: to get to there. With some new polls, we will

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Speaker 1: assess the state of the race. Also, since we last spoke,

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Speaker 1: Trump changed his position on abortion roughly fourteen different times.

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Speaker 1: So we got a new IVF policy, we got a

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Speaker 1: new abortion then we have a different abortion policy. It's

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Speaker 1: all over the map. Also might be now pro weed potentially,

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Speaker 1: so we'll get into everything that he said about all

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Speaker 1: of those things. Also, big breaking news over the weekend

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Speaker 1: Brazil has now officially banned Twitter, so we'll get into

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Speaker 1: the back and forth between Brazilian government and Elon Musk

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Speaker 1: and what he's saying, they're saying, et cetera. Ramifications potentially

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Speaker 1: for free speech. Also massive protests in Israel, this coming

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Speaker 1: after six more hostages were found dead in the Gaza Strip.

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Speaker 4: These really people.

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Speaker 1: Really overwhelmingly blaming Net and Yahoo for blocking a hostage

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Speaker 1: deal that could have secured a ceasefire. So we'll show

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Speaker 1: you stunning images from there and where things go as

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Speaker 1: best we can tell in Israel and with regards to

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Speaker 1: the ceasefire deal. We also are lucky to be joined

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Speaker 1: by drop site News is Jerrey Scahill. He has some

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Speaker 1: bombshell new reporting about behind the scenes details. He got

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Speaker 1: some leaked documents of exactly how the ceasefire negotiations have

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Speaker 1: gone that really truly pin the blame directly on bb

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Speaker 1: Netanya who for not just failing to get a deal,

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Speaker 1: but actively seeking to undermine and make sure that there

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Speaker 1: is no ceasefire deal. This, of course, is no surprise

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Speaker 1: if people have been watching this show or been watching

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Speaker 1: events unfold in any really honest way. However, Jeremy actually

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Speaker 1: got the documents to back it up, so excited to

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Speaker 1: speak to him about that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be exciting. Make sure that you

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Speaker 2: guys show show up at Breakingpoints dot Com. Become premium subscribers.

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Speaker 2: We're going to do live streams as you guys saw

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Speaker 2: that we did in Chicago, where we take audience questions

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Speaker 2: and have a lot of participation, which we really enjoy doing.

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Speaker 2: So for the debate fun, go ahead and subscribe Breakingpoints

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Speaker 2: dot Com become a premium subscriber, and we will have

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Speaker 2: excellent debate coverage here live, hopefully.

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Speaker 3: At even more eventful than the last one. Although very

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Speaker 3: that's it likely.

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Speaker 4: I think that's impossible.

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Speaker 3: I would have said it was the first place.

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Speaker 2: You know, given how many things we've experienced in this

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Speaker 2: election season, How you know, what else could we possibly?

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Speaker 4: I guess you never know.

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Speaker 1: But it's September tenth, I believe that's Tuesday evening, so

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Speaker 1: it's always fun, the whole gang here, all that good stuff.

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Speaker 1: So all right, let's go and get to the official

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Speaker 1: launch a peak campaign season. Kamala Harris actually was campaigning

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Speaker 1: with Joe Biden yesterday. Tim Walls was also out campaigning

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Speaker 1: Trump campaign was actually not.

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Speaker 3: Campaign aast Joe events. Yeah yesterday weird. Well, we don't

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Speaker 3: have any sound from it.

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Speaker 4: Anyway.

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Speaker 1: Here's a little bit of Kamala Harris out on the

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Speaker 1: campaign trail yesterday.

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Speaker 5: Everywhere I go, I tell people, Look, you may not

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Speaker 5: be a union member, you better thank a union member.

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Speaker 3: For the five day walk week.

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Speaker 4: You better thank a union member for sick leave. You

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Speaker 4: better thank a union member for paid lead.

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Speaker 5: You better thank a union member for vacation time.

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Speaker 6: Because what we know is when union wages go up,

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Speaker 6: everybody's wages go up. When union workplaces are safer, every

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Speaker 6: workplace is safer when unions are strong, America is strong.

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Speaker 1: So aggressively pro union Labor Day message there in Detroit. Also,

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Speaker 1: she and Biden were in Pittsburgh. I believe Tim Walls

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Speaker 1: was at a union event in Minnesota. As I mentioned before,

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Speaker 1: we're down to it now. I mean, it really is crazy.

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Speaker 1: We have this shortened campaign season that we're used to,

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Speaker 1: these lengthy, drawn out presidential campaign seasons. This one the

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Speaker 1: pace is very different. Put this up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: Mail ballots go out in North Carolina this week September sixth,

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Speaker 1: in days, then you start getting into all of these deadlines.

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Speaker 1: This is just in the critical swing states documented here

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Speaker 1: by you Mish voter September sixteenth. You start with Pennsylvania absentees.

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Speaker 1: Then you get September twenty first, Wisconsin mail September twenty fourth,

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Speaker 1: Michigan absentee.

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Speaker 4: On and on and on.

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Speaker 1: So you can see we really are coming down to

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Speaker 1: the wire here with final weeks until election day. Let

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Speaker 1: me give you a little bit of the new polling.

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Speaker 1: I thought this was noteworthy. This was a new ABC

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Speaker 1: News poll. We can put this up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris now has a pretty high favorability here out

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Speaker 1: pacing Trump with regard to her favorable impression. But I

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Speaker 1: found this interesting saga. In this particular poll, they actually

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Speaker 1: found more people who said she was quote qualified to

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Speaker 1: be president as opposed to Trump. And that's one of

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Speaker 1: the criticisms he's attempted to lob at hers that she's

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Speaker 1: she's not qualified the quote quote unquote DEI candidate, and

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Speaker 1: of course she wasn't picked through an ordinary primary process.

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Speaker 1: She was anointed onto the ticket as the VP, and

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Speaker 1: then when Biden resigned, she you know, immediately it's his

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Speaker 1: endorsement and lines up all the endorsements and is essentially,

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Speaker 1: you know, fata compley to make her the Democratic nominee.

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Speaker 1: So I found that noteworthy as well, that that had

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Speaker 1: not that particular attack had not stuck to her very effective.

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Speaker 2: I hasn't stuck yet, And I think this really highlights

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Speaker 2: the danger that we were saying here for the Trump

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Speaker 2: campaign is that for weeks now I've heard from them

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Speaker 2: is that they're like where all the powder is dry

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Speaker 2: until Labor Day. And then one of the dangers of

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Speaker 2: that is that the definitional wars, and the problem with

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Speaker 2: those definitional wars was that in that period Kamalawa's campaign

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Speaker 2: not only experienced the DNC, they also experienced a monolithic

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Speaker 2: media moment where everybody was falling over her. She did

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Speaker 2: her last her interview on the Thursday. You guys did

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Speaker 2: a great job. I listened to that while I was gone,

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Speaker 2: oh yeah.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you any big takeaways there.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I thought she was okay.

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Speaker 2: I mean I was like, it was nothing that noteworry,

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Speaker 2: be minus whatever. Performance nothing particularly noteworthy.

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Speaker 3: I mean the way she flipped.

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Speaker 2: I mean really, my more criticism is not for her.

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Speaker 2: It's for Dana Bash, where it's like, well, you change

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Speaker 2: something positions on some things.

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Speaker 3: I'm like, no, no, no, that's not what we do. We

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Speaker 3: go through a checklist and we're like, you said this,

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Speaker 3: and now you say this, he said this, and now

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Speaker 3: you say this, and she's like, well, I've always been

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Speaker 3: true to my value, so look on the substance bullshit.

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Speaker 1: In my opinion, it was very like check the box

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Speaker 1: kind of check. It wasn't like, let me follow up difficult.

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Speaker 2: There's a real reason that they picked her. So look,

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Speaker 2: all of my criticism is more for CNN. If I'm

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Speaker 2: a politician, that's the dream scenario, especially for somebody like here.

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Speaker 3: Let's put that aside.

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Speaker 2: The fact is is that she did that on a

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Speaker 2: Thursday before Labor Day weekend, when a huge amount of

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Speaker 2: people are on the road or on a plane taking vacation.

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Speaker 2: So the idea number of people who even watched it

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Speaker 2: probably very low. The vast majority of the coverage is positive,

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Speaker 2: and the Trump people at the same time were experienced

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Speaker 2: a downswing. Both in terms of criticism, but not knowing

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Speaker 2: really what to do and their strategy. So the biggest

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Speaker 2: problem I've seen from the Trump campaign is their inability

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Speaker 2: to be on message. So the problem is is that

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Speaker 2: if you look at the more disciplined characters, people like JD.

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Speaker 2: Vance or any of the surrogates, it's all Kamala all

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Speaker 2: the time. But with Trump, there's a lot of grievance

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Speaker 2: around the fact that Biden is longer.

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Speaker 4: On the ticket.

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Speaker 3: He's talking a lot about Biden.

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Speaker 2: Every once in a while, he'll come back to Kamala,

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Speaker 2: and he's kind of all over the place. Interesting New

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Speaker 2: York Times analysis a guy named Sean mccreash, who I

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Speaker 2: believe he interviewed Trump up read him for a long time.

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Speaker 2: He talked about how Trump believes strongly in his theory

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Speaker 2: of called the weave, where he weaves in and out

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Speaker 2: of various different you know, political messages and kind of

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Speaker 2: stream of conscious Trump believes it because it's worked for

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Speaker 2: him for so long that he's just going to stick

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Speaker 2: to the process. But I mean, look, he's the guy

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Speaker 2: who got elected, not me. I could just see that

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Speaker 2: there is a danger in that in that the definition

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Speaker 2: wars at this point. Hundreds of millions of dollars were

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Speaker 2: spent just in the last month or so, defining Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris behind a lot of the media messaging. Now leading

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Speaker 2: into Labor Day, where the vast majority of Americans and

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Speaker 2: now beginning to tune in a lot more than ever before,

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Speaker 2: there is a perhaps chance to make up some lost ground.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I guess the bull case that I would

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Speaker 2: make for Trump is, Look, you're still fifty to fifty

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Speaker 2: and you know your powder is dry. You're still a

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Speaker 2: fairly decent shot of winning the election, so maybe you

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Speaker 2: didn't have to. You don't have nearly as much money

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Speaker 2: as the Democrats did last time around, so you want

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Speaker 2: to dump as much as you can when people are

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Speaker 2: paying attention.

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Speaker 3: So I'm still not you know, counting them out or

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Speaker 3: any therapy.

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Speaker 4: No, nor should anybody I think.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I just think it was a mistake not to

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Speaker 2: really fight as hard as they possibly could when clearly

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Speaker 2: they were on the back foot. While a human level,

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Speaker 2: I can empathize why they felt that way, from a

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Speaker 2: practitioner level, I think they should have hit the ground

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Speaker 2: running almost immediately a month ago.

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Speaker 1: I think that's right because here's the thing. Impressions of

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris were obviously very very soft. Yeah, as evidenced

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Speaker 1: by the fact that her approval rating shifted dramatically in

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Speaker 1: just a short period of time. And you can say, oh,

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Speaker 1: the media blah blah blah, but ultimately you're the campaign.

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Speaker 1: You need to get out there and find your opponent

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Speaker 1: in the way you want her to be defined, and

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Speaker 1: that just hasn't worked. I mean that qualification, that's just

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Speaker 1: one case in point of something that they tried, obviously

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Speaker 1: didn't stick, obviously didn't land with the American public. She

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Speaker 1: gets to pass on all the Biden policies too. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you ask voters like who do you trust more

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Speaker 1: on this than that policy, she's massively outpacing Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: So she's also not being saddled with, you know, whatever

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Speaker 1: pieces of the bidenministration voters are unhappy with. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you saw this. I sent this in this

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Speaker 1: morning saga. We just got new numbers about dollar amounts

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Speaker 1: of ad reservation in key battleground states and it's very

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Speaker 1: revealing in terms of the Trump campaign has really narrowed

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Speaker 1: their focus down to just a few states. Basically Pennsylvania

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Speaker 1: and Georgia. They are pinning all of their hopes on

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Speaker 1: those two states. So they're spending seventy million dollars on

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Speaker 1: TV in Pennsylvania, almost forty million in Georgia. Those are

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Speaker 1: very equivalent numbers to what the Democrats are spent. It's

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Speaker 1: almost identical to what the Democrats are spending in those states.

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Speaker 1: In every other swing state Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada,

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Speaker 1: that one Omaha market that's a swing district. Because of

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Speaker 1: the way they do the electoral college there, Democrats are

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Speaker 1: massively outspending Republicans. So it just it really shows you

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Speaker 1: they aren't feeling that confident about Michigan and Wisconsin. They're

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Speaker 1: feeling like, we have to bet the whole farm on

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Speaker 1: making sure that we win both Ssylvania and Georgia. And

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Speaker 1: by the way, in that scenario, they also have to

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Speaker 1: hold on to North Carolina, which is no longer a

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Speaker 1: given now. If they do those things, they win. That's

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Speaker 1: all they have to do is just win those three

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania. But you know, really narrowly laser

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Speaker 1: focused on that. It's kind of reminiscent of when Biden

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Speaker 1: was in the race, Democrats had given up on Arizona, Georgia,

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Speaker 1: certainly North Carolina. They were thinking, Okay, if we just

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Speaker 1: have to hold these three blue Wall states, but that's

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Speaker 1: our only path that's feasible at this point. Now the

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Speaker 1: Trump campaign really narrowing their focus, it appears, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And it's also highlights something that we've been trying to

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Speaker 2: hammer home here, which is that the map fundamentally changed

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Speaker 2: from last time around.

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Speaker 3: With Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 2: Kamala is more likely to lose Pennsylvania and win Georgia

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Speaker 2: under the current That was a flip last time around, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: with Joe Biden. So I want everybody also to kind

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Speaker 2: of flip the way that they're thinking about where tipping

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Speaker 2: points may come, what they could look like. There are

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Speaker 2: multiple paths to two seventy for the Democrats that don't

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Speaker 2: include Pennsylvania. I mean that could be wrong too, because

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Speaker 2: sometimes I think about it, I'm like, well, in a

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Speaker 2: scenario where she loses Pennsylvania, she really also going to

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Speaker 2: win Georgia. I mean, theoretically, from what we're looking at,

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Speaker 2: that is possible. I also find it a little bit difficult,

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Speaker 2: just because you know, when things are off. They're usually

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Speaker 2: off all in all direction. So in my head, she's

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Speaker 2: either gonna win them all or she's gonna lose them all.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, listen, it could be. It could be

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Speaker 2: a true nail bider, could be like a nineteen sixty

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Speaker 2: level election where it all comes down to, you know,

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Speaker 2: even less votes than did last time, and it really is,

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Speaker 2: you know, forty nine point two versus forty nine point one,

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Speaker 2: and we have to live through weeks of recounts. I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't just have that possibility either.

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Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, And there's also the question I agree with you,

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Speaker 1: by the way, about you know a lot of times

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Speaker 1: there's like, wouldn't it be crazy if she won this

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Speaker 1: one state and lost all day?

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Speaker 4: It's like, usually these things all moving fandor one wrong.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Usually they all trend a little bit this way

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Speaker 1: or a little bit that way. And that's in the

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Speaker 1: Senate races as well. It's unusual for it to be like,

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Speaker 1: oh my god, she crushed meig but got destroyed in Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 1: It's so nationalized at this point that typically I think

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Speaker 1: things tend to trend in one direction or the other.

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Speaker 1: But put that aside, it is really remarkable when you

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Speaker 1: think about the fact that last time with Joe Biden,

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Speaker 1: he won the popular vote by roughly four points, and

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Speaker 1: we all know how close that ended up being because

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Speaker 1: of the electoral college advantage that Republicans benefit from. Now,

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Speaker 1: people like Nate Silver who study this stuff say that

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Speaker 1: electoral college advantage has diminished.

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Speaker 4: A little bit for Republicans.

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Speaker 1: And there was a poll that just came out that

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Speaker 1: had Kamala Harris up three points nationally. If she wins

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Speaker 1: the popular vote by three points, that is like I said.

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Speaker 3: Well, we just said forty nine point two versus forty

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Speaker 3: nine points.

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Speaker 1: That is like Georgia nightmare recount, like you won by

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Speaker 1: three votes in two states or what I mean. It's

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Speaker 1: it's having started to have those vibes. Let me just

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Speaker 1: roll through some of the other pole numbers that came out.

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Speaker 1: This is also from that ABC News pole that just

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Speaker 1: says everybody's favorability. This is something that I've been talking about,

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Speaker 1: you know, in terms.

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Speaker 4: Of the old who would you want to have a

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Speaker 4: beer with? Test?

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Speaker 1: It looks like Harris Walls are winning that She's plus three,

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Speaker 1: he's plus eleven in terms of favorability ratings. Trump in

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Speaker 1: this one minus twenty five. That's an outlier. That's because

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Speaker 1: his favorability ratings recently have actually been a bit higher.

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Speaker 1: But in any case, minus twenty five in this particular poll,

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Speaker 1: I take that with a grain of salt because it

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Speaker 1: is an outlier. Jade vance minus twelve that has been

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Speaker 1: fairly on target with where his approval rating has been.

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Speaker 1: So she's winning that, Like, who would you rather have

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Speaker 1: a beer? Perhaps a glass of wine with Sager? Next, Leve,

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Speaker 1: let's get a little bit into We got some leaks

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Speaker 1: about her debate strategy, which is kind of relevant in

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Speaker 1: terms of the whole mic on mic off debate. Put

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Speaker 1: this next piece up on the screen. Source is familiar

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Speaker 1: with Vice President Harris's debate prep tel NBC News. She's

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Speaker 1: focused on getting under Trump's skin, remaining calm in response

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Speaker 1: to his attacks, pointing out his broken promises, and emphasizing

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Speaker 1: his advanced age.

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Speaker 4: So this gives you some.

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Speaker 1: Insight into why they've been trying to keep the mics on,

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Speaker 1: because she is betting on or hoping for some sort

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Speaker 1: of like unhinged moment from him, you know, happening, and

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Speaker 1: she wants the mics on to be able to catch that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I look, probably a good strategy.

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Speaker 2: They're trying to get recreate biden one point zero debate,

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Speaker 2: the very first debate where Trump was I guess hopped

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Speaker 2: up maybe on something, maybe on his own ego.

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Speaker 4: Funny at COVID, so god knows what they had.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's very true.

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Speaker 2: But he was interrupting Biden constantly. That was the chaos

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Speaker 2: debate that was definitely, at the very least I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: say it helped him win the election or come close

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Speaker 2: in the election. So that's what they're really trying to

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Speaker 2: recreate this time around. It's actually not a terrible one

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Speaker 2: because Trump actually has lost his cool in previous debates

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Speaker 2: or he has shown well, I would say it's risky

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Speaker 2: in one regard. Sometimes he's very good off the cuff.

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Speaker 2: The classic moments of twenty sixteen. Let me think about,

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Speaker 2: you know we had you'd be in jail, some of

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Speaker 2: the NAFTA attacks that were on Hillary Clinton, showing and

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Speaker 2: trying to throw her off the bat in debate number

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Speaker 2: two by bringing all those Bill Clinton accusers, which I

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Speaker 2: think clearly did have some effect on Hillary going into that.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, certainly possible.

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Speaker 2: He has risen to the occasion before they are all

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Speaker 2: trying to recreate his worst debate performance on record so far,

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Speaker 2: which was the first debate last time around. Look, I mean,

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Speaker 2: in general, this is a relatively easy test because all

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Speaker 2: Kamala has to do is appear better than Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: and deliver very classic attacks.

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Speaker 3: I believe her biggest strength so far as not that.

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Speaker 2: It was a moment in the interview where they asked

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Speaker 2: her about the race attacks and previously these are the

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Speaker 2: type of things that Democrats would have fetishized and be like,

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Speaker 2: oh my god, and there was every buzzword in the book,

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Speaker 2: and she said the same old thing from Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Next question, Yeah, he said, ah, you know, that's the

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Speaker 2: smartest learner to do so far. They learn fardest thing

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Speaker 2: I've seen her do so far, because.

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Speaker 3: You take the bait.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. And I don't know if you caught.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the interview too, Dana Bash put

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Speaker 1: up that picture of Kamala's adorable grand niece and she's

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Speaker 1: got like the pigtails and she's, you know, a little

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Speaker 1: black girl looking up at the black and she asked

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Speaker 1: her a similar like you know, what does this mean

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Speaker 1: to all the black women out there?

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Speaker 4: Or whatever?

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Speaker 1: And her response was, I'm running because I think I

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Speaker 1: would be the best president for all Americans. So again

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Speaker 1: just very different from the Hillary Clinton campaign, just reeked

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Speaker 1: of all this like narcissistic, like, oh my god, look

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Speaker 1: at me. Aren't I so special? It won't be so

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Speaker 1: amazing for all women just to have.

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Speaker 4: Me in office?

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Speaker 1: And Kamala Harris is leaning more into the way that

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Speaker 1: Barack Obama handled this. Now, not that he never talked

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Speaker 1: about race. He gave that very famous speech about race,

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Speaker 1: which was very well received at the time, but by

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Speaker 1: and large, he really went out of his way to

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Speaker 1: emphasize I'm running for everyone, and she seems to have

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Speaker 1: taken that playbook. But I one hundred percent agree that

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Speaker 1: was the best moment of the whole interview. And Dana

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Speaker 1: Bash tried to be like she was like, that's it,

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Speaker 1: almost like that's it. So they've learned something about how

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Speaker 1: to run against Trump, for sure.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that is smart.

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Speaker 2: Let's put Nate Silver's piece up on the screen in

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Speaker 2: really interesting stuff A seven please next one.

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Speaker 1: This is yeah, this is the Bloomberg polls. We can

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Speaker 1: just mention she's leading her tied with Trump in the

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Speaker 1: seven swing states here that includes North Carolina where she's

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Speaker 1: up to. So this is the Bloomberg polls. Gohea and

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Speaker 1: put me at silver up next we can take a

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Speaker 1: look at that gout.

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Speaker 2: So the Nate Silver analysis here currently has each candidate's

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Speaker 2: chance of winning has changed, and this is not necessarily

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Speaker 2: the chance of winning right now, but the Havelow chance

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Speaker 2: of winning has changed their win probability at one point

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Speaker 2: going at fifty five percent for Trump and Harris at

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Speaker 2: forty four. He has an excellent post out this morning

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Speaker 2: that I actually highly recommend everybody read, which has really

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Speaker 2: changed my analysis to in the literal throwing my hands up.

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Speaker 2: Is why this election is not normal, and it's not

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Speaker 2: normal for so many reasons. It was not normal for

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Speaker 2: the RFK on the ballot for each third party but

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Speaker 2: then dropping out endorsing Trump. It is not normal for

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Speaker 2: the extremely short, less than one hundred day period sprint

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Speaker 2: to the election. It is not normal in terms of

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Speaker 2: the way that Donald Trump literally was almost assassinated. It

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Speaker 2: is not normal in terms of Tim Wallas going from

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Speaker 2: basically an unknown figure now onto the national stage in

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Speaker 2: a dizzying turn of events. It's not normal to be

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Speaker 2: able to track things over time and so the ability

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Speaker 2: to have a miss and perhaps a very large miss

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Speaker 2: is perhaps greater today than ever before. So I'm really

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Speaker 2: thinking and trying to incorporate that. And that's part of

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Speaker 2: why when I was saying about Pennsylvania, it just seems

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Speaker 2: extremely unlikely to me that she would win Pennsylvania, or

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Speaker 2: that Trump would lose Pennsylvania, or sorry, would win Pennsylvania

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Speaker 2: and just not win the entire election. But that is

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Speaker 2: part of why I'm also injecting just like the general

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Speaker 2: chaos theory of there is so much crazy stuff that

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Speaker 2: has happened here, and look, we are as bewildered as

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Speaker 2: all of you. And I think that's what we can

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Speaker 2: try and help people think through is when they're going

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Speaker 2: into this election, the normal rules just have not applied

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Speaker 2: at all. And that is okay actually, and to think

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Speaker 2: about and so to use old heuristics and kind of

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Speaker 2: apply them here not really appropriate.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean, anytime you're talking about presidential election, ultimately

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Speaker 1: it's such a small sample size. So to say there's

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Speaker 1: any sort of ironclad rule about how the polls work

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Speaker 1: or how this works, or what the electoral college path

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Speaker 1: looks like or whatever, you just you really do have

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Speaker 1: to start with a fresh slate, because every single election

439
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 1: pr exists some sort of a surprise that no one

440
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 1: was anticipating, and we've already had a number of both

441
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 1: in this particular election. You know, the I guess the

442
00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,400
Speaker 1: case I would make for if I'm going to play

443
00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 1: Devil's advocate about why maybe Pennsylvania could be different from

444
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 1: Michigan and Wisconsin, it's just because of those numbers I

445
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier that the Trump campaign of spending massively in

446
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,639
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania and not spending massively in those other states. I mean,

447
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:37,359
Speaker 1: they're basically all that abandoned those other states. So to

448
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,919
Speaker 1: the extent that paid advertisements really make that much of

449
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,680
Speaker 1: a difference at this point, which is debatable, very debatable.

450
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:45,479
Speaker 2: I guess the absence of it is bad, but the

451
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: presence of it is not necessarily that means, which is

452
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 2: a crazy thing to think about.

453
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 1: Political consultants certainly think you're making a lot of money

454
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 1: on and they think it's very impactful. But I don't know,

455
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 1: I genuinely don't know if it makes that much of

456
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 1: a difference at this point, given like I said, how

457
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 1: nationalized the election are. But that would be the case

458
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 1: for why a Pennsylvania and a Georgia could be different

459
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 1: from the others. It's simply because the Trump campaign is

460
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 1: spending way more of their dollars focus attention. I'm sure

461
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: ground game, et cetera in those states, So that would

462
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 1: be one thing. But yeah, the bullish case to make

463
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 1: for the Trump people based on the Nate Silver analysis

464
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,920
Speaker 1: that does have Trump now in terms of the Electoral

465
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 1: College out of you know, out of one hundred simulations,

466
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,680
Speaker 1: fifty five times Trump wins and forty five times Commal wins.

467
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 1: That's basically a top toss up, but gives Trump somewhat

468
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 1: of an edge. So far post convention, there hasn't been

469
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 1: much of it. It's basically been static from where it

470
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 1: was pre convention. For Kamala Harris, and so his model

471
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 1: is factoring in like, oh, you should have gotten a bump,

472
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 1: and so it's sort of discounting the polls at this

473
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:50,439
Speaker 1: point that show her up but don't show her getting

474
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,679
Speaker 1: a bounce. So, you know, if you consider this a

475
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 1: honeymoon period, if you look at this and say, oh,

476
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 1: well you should have gotten a bounce, maybe that was

477
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 1: negated by the RFK junior and dropout an endorsement whatever,

478
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,880
Speaker 1: then you know, a reversion back to the mean.

479
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:06,640
Speaker 4: If you lose those two points that.

480
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: Maybe she theoretically got but was negated by RFK Junior,

481
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 1: then you're back to you know, the popular vote.

482
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 4: Being close to tide.

483
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 1: And in that scenario, if they're tied in the popular vote,

484
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 1: Donald Trump wins given their electoral college margins. Put a

485
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:24,959
Speaker 1: eight up on the screen. This is the more I guess,

486
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: hopeful or bullish case for the Kamala people. So, like

487
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 1: I said, doesn't get a convention balance. This poll does

488
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 1: have her up by six, but it already had her

489
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 1: up by six, so you'd still say, all right, well

490
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 1: that's still a good result. But we're going to show

491
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 1: you some more of this data in the block we're

492
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 1: about to do about abortion. The gender gap, women continue

493
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 1: to move towards Kamala Harris. Women vote more often than men,

494
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 1: so you would rather have the women's side of the

495
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 1: gender gap than the man.

496
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 4: Side of the gender gap.

497
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 1: There's also the data that I referenced before is that

498
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 1: women are registering in like astronomical numbers, even higher rates

499
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 1: than postd ops, which is kind of extraordinary. So that's

500
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: the bullish case for the Harris people. You know, if

501
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 1: you want to do a little unskewed the polls on

502
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 1: the Kamala Hair side, you would say, listen, these new voters,

503
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 1: these new women who are redstaring to vote, They're to

504
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 1: be captured any likely voter screen and they are much

505
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 1: more likely to vote. New voters are much more likely

506
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 1: to vote than people who've been registered for a long time.

507
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 1: So you know, that's kind of the bullish case on

508
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 1: their side, which I think has some merit.

509
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 3: Absolutely that some merit. That's why voter registration.

510
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 2: I think we're going to continue to track that metric

511
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 2: and that's going to be very important in the way

512
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 2: that we think about all of this as well. So

513
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 2: in general, yeah, I mean my main thing is normal

514
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 2: rules don't really apply. All of this is a lot

515
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 2: of signaling we are trying to figure out, like which

516
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,719
Speaker 2: way things are going, and then also to what extent

517
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 2: the so called fundamentals still matter. We're going to pretend

518
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 2: that they still do, but as we all found out

519
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: last time around, they don't necessarily always. That's actually maybe

520
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 2: a good turn to the next one, which is abortion.

521
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,880
Speaker 2: Because abortion was not a topic whichever was so called

522
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 2: fundamental it was relatively a decided issue in the minds

523
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 2: of most Americans. To the extent that it was an issue,

524
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 2: it was an issue for Republican voters in presidential primaries,

525
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 2: and perhaps in terms of turnout.

526
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 3: Trump himself has no idea what to do here.

527
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: Last time around, he could just say it was pro life,

528
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 2: but the stakes of being pro life didn't have any

529
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 2: real electoral consequences outside of driving Republican votes in his primary.

530
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 2: This time around, you have literally tens of millions of

531
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 2: women and voters who are for this is, if not

532
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,360
Speaker 2: their number one issue, one of the major issues influencing

533
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 2: their decision to vote in the twenty twenty four election.

534
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 2: So Trump has changed his position now several times just

535
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 2: in the last ninety six hours. First and foremost, and

536
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: this is what really set off a firestorm, was an

537
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 2: NBC News interview where he appeared to come out against

538
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 2: a six week amendment which is on the ballot in

539
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 2: the state of Florida known as Amendment for Let's take

540
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 2: a listen to his original comments.

541
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 6: Art grow and you want abortion to be a states

542
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 6: rights issue in Florida, the state that you are a

543
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 6: resident of, there's an abortion related amendment on the ballot

544
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 6: to overturn the sixth week fan in Florida, how are

545
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 6: you going to.

546
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:10,120
Speaker 4: Vote on that?

547
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 5: Well, I think the six week is too short. This

548
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 5: has to be more time. And so that's and I've

549
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 5: told them that I want more weeks, so.

550
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:18,400
Speaker 6: You'll vote in favor of the amendment.

551
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 5: I'm voting that. I am going to be voting that

552
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,360
Speaker 5: we need more than six weeks. Look, just so you understand,

553
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 5: everybody wanted Roe v. Wade terminated for.

554
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 3: Years, fifty two years. I got it done. They wanted

555
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 3: to go back to the States.

556
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 2: Okay, So that is crazy because of course, not only

557
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 2: has he said previously, what did he say six weeks

558
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 2: was cruel? I think that's what he said in his

559
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 2: criticism of Rhonda Standers. But he basically came out there

560
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 2: and seemed to say that he was going to be

561
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 2: voting in favor of Amendment four. Amendment four is the

562
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 2: so called right to abortion initiative that will be actually

563
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:54,639
Speaker 2: on the ballot, and it says specifically that amendment to

564
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 2: limit government interference with abortion. No law shall prohibit penalized

565
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 2: delay or restrict abortion before viability, or when necessary to

566
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 2: protect the patient's health, as determined by the patient's health

567
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: care provider. This amendment does not change the legislature's constitutional

568
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 2: authority to require notification to a parent or guardian before

569
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 2: a minor has an abortion.

570
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 3: That's a text of the amendment.

571
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: Basically codifies row effectively.

572
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 2: It's actually past row right because it isn't even talking

573
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 2: about the first trimester effectively. And this is what the

574
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 2: critics of it are saying, is that it legalizes abortion

575
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 2: all the way up until nine months if that is

576
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 2: what a healthcare provider were weere to recommend. Of course,

577
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 2: relatively rare case, but anyway, that's part of the reason

578
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 2: why some of the abortion anti abortion activists are very

579
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 2: influenced by it. The other consequential thing that he said

580
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 2: in that was not only that he opposed in principle

581
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,640
Speaker 2: six weeks as quote being too short. He also came

582
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 2: out in favor of mandating insurance coverage of IVF for

583
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 2: all Americans.

584
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen, So we.

585
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 5: Are paying for that treatment or want it for all

586
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,679
Speaker 5: Americans that get it, for all Americans that need it.

587
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 5: So we're going to be paying for that treatment or

588
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 5: we're going to be mandating that the insurance company.

589
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 2: Paid Okay, So perhaps no comment pissed more traditional conservatives

590
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 2: off than this one for two reasons. One, it actually

591
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 2: expands insurance coverage. It quite literally mandates insurance companies to cover.

592
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: But second was, of course that there is a philosophical

593
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 2: objection by some very very religious elements of the GOP

594
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 2: two IVF. So this was his first, like twenty sixteen

595
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 2: moment that I'd seen in quite a long time, and

596
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 2: I was like, hey, that's actually quite a smart play.

597
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 2: But of course, you know, the people inside the coalition

598
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,199
Speaker 2: are going to be absolutely furious about it.

599
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 1: You know, I thought about this, and I'm not so

600
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 1: sure it is a smart play because in the same

601
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 1: way that I don't think it's smart for Democrats to

602
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 1: validate the frame of Republicans on immigration and issue that

603
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: they are never going to win it on, I don't

604
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: think it's smart for Republicans to validate that.

605
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 4: I want them to.

606
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: I would like them to be pro choice. I appreciate

607
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: Donald Trump for three minutes, you know, attempting to move

608
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 1: the party in a more pro choice direction, but just

609
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 1: speaking tactically, he's validating the Democratic frame here, and he

610
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 1: also just looks like panicked and also You're going to

611
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 1: see him completely change his position in the course of

612
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 1: like two days time. So any of the criticisms that

613
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 1: they have of Kamala Harris, which are legitimate of her

614
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 1: being a flip flopper, hard to make that land when

615
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,719
Speaker 1: you yourself have four different abortion positions over the course of

616
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 1: one weekend. So even on the politics of this, I

617
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: actually sort of agree with the you know, the Lilah Roses.

618
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 1: You put her tweet up on the screen here. This

619
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 1: was after these initial comments. She says, expressions of disappointment

620
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: are not enough. Disappointment is not being counted at the

621
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: ballot box. The currency the language in the season is votes.

622
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 1: Trump has plenty of opportunity to still win the pro

623
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 1: life vote, and it will only help his campaign. I

624
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: want Trump to win as a pro life candidate, but

625
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: let's be clear, Trump winning as a pro abortion candidate

626
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: is a loss for the pro life movement. So the

627
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 1: two risks politically are Number one, you do moralize your base,

628
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: which has been very critical and very steadfast with him.

629
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: You know, they're the like evangelical right, the religious rights

630
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: since twenty sixteen has been his strongest and most solid.

631
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 4: Base of support.

632
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 1: So you risk sort of you know, de energizing them,

633
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 1: demotivating them so that they don't turn out and they

634
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 1: don't volunteer, and all those sorts of things which are critical.

635
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 4: But also you are.

636
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: Validating the Democratic Party frame, and you're always going to

637
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 1: be the guy who put the people on the bench

638
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 1: that overturned Row. You're not getting away from that. So

639
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 1: the position he took in twenty sixteen in service of

640
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 1: winning the Republican primary and then in service of holding

641
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: onto evangelicals after the whole Access Hollywood situation, you know,

642
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 1: in a sense they really have I do think they

643
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: helped him to be able to win that election, but

644
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 1: they've really come home to roost in a way that

645
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: I don't think he can, you know, jiu jitsu his

646
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: way out of on the IVF thing, though if I

647
00:29:57,920 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 1: were Democrats, I would take him up on it. Put

648
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 1: a bill on floor, make them vote, like, Okay, let's

649
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: cat it. Let's let's guarantee IVF. Let's have the government

650
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 1: pick up the bill, or the insurance companies if you

651
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: have private health insurance, let's do it.

652
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 4: Let's go and see what happens.

653
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 1: Because we've had legislation go through the Senate to protect IVF,

654
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 1: and almost every Republican voted again, So I.

655
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: Guess the reason that I have I'm not thinking of

656
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 2: this through politics. I'm trying to say, how do we

657
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 2: just shift the Overton windows so that these Lilah graces

658
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 2: of the world are not like ruling the Republican Party

659
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 2: for no reason, these are extremely unpopular positions. Sorry, it

660
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 2: just is, as all recent politics has shown you. It

661
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 2: is also extremely unpopular and also disc it doesn't make

662
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 2: sense to so be the so called pro family party

663
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 2: and not be in favor of expanding IVF for me protection.

664
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 3: So I'm not exacting here, and I'm like, so I

665
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 3: think it's important.

666
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 2: When the leader of the party is like, no, we're

667
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: going to mandate that all government is going to pay

668
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 2: for IVF, I'm like, hey, you know what, that's actually

669
00:30:56,320 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 2: what a pro family you know position would look like,

670
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 2: you know, And that's one of those where this is

671
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 2: why everyone's like, oh, you know, one of the attacks

672
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: I saw somebody so like, when is the last time

673
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 2: Soccer said anything, you know, traditionally conservative? It's like, what

674
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 2: makes you think that I were traditionally conservative? Because that

675
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 2: is one of those traditional conservative points that I think

676
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 2: is extremely stupid if you do care about the eventual outcome.

677
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 2: We can argue a million times about other stuff, but

678
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 2: on this one too. This is something rossed out that

679
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 2: had said previously as well. He's like, look, I'm at

680
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 2: literally pro I'm pro life, pro family. And the truth

681
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 2: is is that being legitimately pro life would require a

682
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 2: massive expansion of a lot of family based social safety

683
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 2: net programs that most traditional Republicans are not comfortable with,

684
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 2: and that is actually ideologically consistent. Now, we can argue

685
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 2: a lot about marriage and work incentives and all that

686
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 2: other stuff, but this is an actual difference in the framework. Now,

687
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 2: on the politics of it, maybe you're right, but at

688
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 2: the same time, a lot of it is trying to

689
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 2: meet Americans where they are. The truth is is the

690
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 2: vast majority of Americans are quote unquote pro choice. Under

691
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 2: the Rogue census, the absolute supermajority of people are pro IVF.

692
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 2: And also most people hate their insurance companies, and they

693
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 2: also hate the modern healthcare system and the bills associated

694
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 2: with fertility. So the average cost of a single round

695
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 2: of IVF is some twelve to fourteen thousand dollars for

696
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 2: a single cycle, meaning it's a luxury good and that's

697
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 2: not right. It's actually not right, And what it tells

698
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 2: us is that if we want to live in a

699
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 2: society where people of all classes experience, et cetera, who

700
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 2: want to be able to have a family should be

701
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 2: able to have one, then we need to expand protection

702
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 2: of said medical but in the same way that we

703
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 2: would with so many other different policies. So my only

704
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 2: point here is just that the current economics of it

705
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 2: on healthcare, insurance and all that, trying to become less

706
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 2: scary as Republicans on the issue is very important, I

707
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 2: think on a framework level. But you could be correct

708
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 2: only because only because he's not willing to fully have

709
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 2: some sort of Sista Souldier moment where he's now, guys,

710
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 2: I'm breaking from you. He's like, you're either with me

711
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 2: or you're not. I mean, I think he should because frankly,

712
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: I think they'll all show up to vote for him. Anyways,

713
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,479
Speaker 2: let's go to the next part on Matt Walsh. He

714
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 2: says Amendment four in Florida will enshrine a right to

715
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 2: murder children.

716
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 3: Up until the moment.

717
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 2: This is what I was talking about, by the way,

718
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: in terms of what the pro life activists were saying.

719
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 2: They say it's an abject evil, radical leftism, etc. The

720
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 2: point is is that after significant pushback by Matt Walsh,

721
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 2: by people like Michael Knowles, we can put the next

722
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 2: one up there who says, quote, as a practical matter,

723
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: most persons created through IVF are destroyed or frozen indefinitely. Additionally,

724
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 2: IVF establishes the domination of technology or the origin and

725
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 2: destiny of human life, and assert it's a perverse right

726
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 2: to a child and severs the unitive from.

727
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 3: The pro creative. For those not familiar with such terms.

728
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 4: I'm sure three percent of people agree with you there, buddy.

729
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 3: This is religious.

730
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 2: It's perhaps a blessing and a curse that I know

731
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 2: so many religious Catholics. Thus, I frankly understand what he's saying.

732
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 2: If you don't, then you wouldn't maybe understand a lot

733
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 2: of this. All of this is to say is that

734
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 2: after a lot of pushback on the initial amendment for conversation,

735
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 2: Trump then reverses his position and now says, actually, no,

736
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 2: he will not be voting for Amendment four.

737
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen, webby voting no for that reason.

738
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 7: Now on Amendment four for that reason, because it's a

739
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 7: radical and when are you talking about radical? Having a

740
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 7: baby abortion, doing an abortion, and the ninth month is

741
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 7: unacceptable to anybody. There's something in between, but the sixth

742
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 7: is too short. It's just too short a period, and

743
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 7: the nine months is unacceptable. But for that reason, for

744
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 7: the radicalization on the Democrat side, we're voting no.

745
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 2: They have tried this a million times and guess what,

746
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 2: it's just not going to work.

747
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 3: We saw it in twenty twenty two.

748
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: People are not concerned about the so called cases of

749
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 2: late term abortion. They are very concerned about early term

750
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 2: six weeks and really between six and twelve first trimester. Again,

751
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 2: like I said, a literal, not only majority.

752
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:08,439
Speaker 3: I think.

753
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 2: I think it's almost sixty sums, maybe almost seventy percent

754
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 2: of American support, a rogue consensus. And thus, if we

755
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 2: put this last piece up here, just Trump contorting himself

756
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 2: on abortion in search of political gain. It is an

757
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 2: extremely difficult position that he is in, as long as

758
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 2: he wants to try and keep all sides happy. I

759
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 2: genuinely believe that this is one of those a time

760
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 2: for choosing moments, and that you either have to, as

761
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 2: I said, have a literal sist to soldier moment and

762
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 2: just say, look, guys, I don't support this. This is

763
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 2: not the direction that we're going in. This is the

764
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 2: new consensus. We are going to have to argue on

765
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 2: very different framework. And this is a lot like the

766
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 2: way that the European right wing parties argue on the

767
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 2: issue of abortion, or we are or he's going to

768
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 2: have to become explicitly pro life and just live with

769
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 2: the consequences. But this current like trying to satisfy everybody.

770
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 2: It's a lot like immigration, where on the issue it's

771
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 2: just such a polarized one and the choice actually does

772
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:09,280
Speaker 2: matter so much on where you directionally fall that Trump

773
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 2: all of this like firing in all different directions.

774
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:14,240
Speaker 3: It's just not going to work. Yeah, I don't see.

775
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 4: It right now.

776
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 1: No, And you know, after the DNC he tweeted that

777
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 1: thing about like, no one's going to be better for

778
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 1: reproductive rights than me. No one is going to believe that.

779
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 1: No one is going to believe that. I mean, we've

780
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 1: got forty fifty years of Republicans being the party of

781
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 1: blocking abortion access. You are not going to change that association,

782
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 1: just like Democrats are not going to change the association

783
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 1: of suddenly think that Kamala Harris going to be more

784
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 1: of a hawk on the border than Donald Trump. That

785
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 1: is not happening, right, So yeah, it's it's there is

786
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,879
Speaker 1: no winning on this position for Donald Trump. And one

787
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 1: of the things I wanted to mention the New York

788
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: Times Siena polls, which are considered very high quality polls,

789
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: as you know, good as they get in terms of

790
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 1: for whatever. That means the number one issue for women

791
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 1: under forty five abortion. It's not actually the economy, it's

792
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 1: not democracy, is not anything else. The number one issue

793
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: for women under forty five is abortion. That tells you

794
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,760
Speaker 1: how central this has become to a lot of political

795
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 1: energy and activism at this point. Let me go ahead

796
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 1: and put this ties in with what I just said.

797
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 1: Put B nine up on the screen. I mentioned this

798
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 1: voter registration data earlier, but let's just show you really

799
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 1: clearly here.

800
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 4: This is Target Smart.

801
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 1: It is a Democratic aligned firm, but they track voter

802
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: registration and those are just hard numbers, like you can't

803
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 1: Democrat or Republican. The actual numbers of who's registering and

804
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 1: when they register whatever. You can see the spike in

805
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 1: women registering to vote Postdobs huge spike led to monumental

806
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: victories for the pro choice position in places like Kansas

807
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 1: and Kentucky. Right then, after Kamala Harris becomes the nominee,

808
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 1: you see a spike that actually out paces surpasses the

809
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 1: Dabbs spike in women registrants. And I guarantee you know

810
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 1: Trump is seeing some of this data, and he has

811
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,839
Speaker 1: always had an instinct. He was the first Republican after

812
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 1: Roe was overturned, to say this is going to be

813
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 1: a problem for us. Privately, he was telling his aide like,

814
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 1: this is going to be a disaster for us, ironic

815
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 1: given that he's the one who made that happen. But anyway,

816
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: put that aside. This is effectively what they're terrified of

817
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 1: right now is that this issue, even if it's not

818
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 1: the primary issue for a majority of voters, it is

819
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: so motivating for such a key slice of the electorate

820
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 1: that it could in and of itself be determinative and

821
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 1: has been in some of the special elections that we

822
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:34,839
Speaker 1: have seen.

823
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 3: Ghostop That wasn't the last thing I want to say.

824
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 2: One of the other things I think is the reason

825
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 2: stupid and Trump should have actually just stuck with his

826
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 2: position on Amendment four. Is guys, Amendment four is going

827
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 2: to pass, all right, I'll eat a sock here on

828
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,839
Speaker 2: this show if it doesn't pass, because that is one

829
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,040
Speaker 2: of the things about Florida. It can be a R

830
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 2: plus twenty state, and abortion can also still be extremely

831
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 2: like or at least being pro the pro life position

832
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,320
Speaker 2: can be extremely unpopular, as we all learned in twenty

833
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: twenty when Trump wins the state of Florida by some

834
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 2: three point five percent and minimum wage.

835
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 3: Passes by like sixty percent.

836
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, people are very multifaceted and very different, especially whenever

837
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,760
Speaker 2: they have to vote issue by issue at the ballot box.

838
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 2: Amendment four is one hundred percent going to pass. So

839
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 2: coming out against it, what's the point, Like, why would

840
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 2: you want to be on the other side and then

841
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 2: give the Democrats even more of an edge to run

842
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 2: up the scoreboard against you because they're going to guarantee

843
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 2: you Florida Democratic Party will use that.

844
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 3: Will he still win the Florida State of Florida? Yeah?

845
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,280
Speaker 2: Absolutely, But my point is, just like, why give people

846
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 2: more ammunition whenever they would need it? Because I can

847
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:42,359
Speaker 2: also tell you that Florida may not matter, But Arizona's

848
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:44,839
Speaker 2: got an abortion thing on the ballot, and you think

849
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 2: they won't be slicing that in to their coverage. It's

850
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 2: a gift to all of the people that you are

851
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 2: running against, and especially in places like Arizona where Carrie

852
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,760
Speaker 2: Lake is a massive drag right now on the ticket,

853
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 2: you need every inch that you can possibly fight for

854
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 2: or to win that state.

855
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 1: So for it to pass in Florida, because it's a

856
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 1: constitutional amendment, it takes a sixty percent super majority, and

857
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: the polls that I've seen recently have it like basically

858
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 1: right at that sixty percent. But like you, I think

859
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 1: it's likely it will pass, especially with Trump kind of

860
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 1: wavering on it, you know. I mean that's a signal

861
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:19,400
Speaker 1: that a lot of people.

862
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:22,399
Speaker 4: Who are more moderate on.

863
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 1: Abortion and maybe a little more Trump inclined or whatever,

864
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 1: I think, are going to see those initial comments and

865
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,800
Speaker 1: agree with them and be more inclined.

866
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 3: To vote for it.

867
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 1: So I expect it to pass. But it's not, you know,

868
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,879
Speaker 1: it's not. It's not a gimme. Given that it has

869
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: to get it'll definitely get a majority. We'll get over

870
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 1: sixty percent probably, but it's not a gimme.

871
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 2: In my opinion, Yeah, I think you're probably right, but

872
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 2: I still think it's almost certainly going to pass.

873
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 3: And even then we'll still make you to sock.

874
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 2: I'm churrel. I mean, all it is a dry mouth.

875
00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 2: All I'm saying is that you know you don't want

876
00:40:56,719 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 2: to be on the opposite ends a very very popular issue.

877
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 2: Let's go to the next part. This is a per

878
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,799
Speaker 2: personal one. Very Let's go and put this up there

879
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 2: on the screen. Speaking of Trump supporting things in the

880
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 2: state of Florida, Trump is now in support of the

881
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 2: recreational quote unquote recreational marijuana initiative in Florida.

882
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 3: Let me read entirely as everyone.

883
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 2: Knows, I was and will be again the most respected

884
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 2: law and order president in US history. We will take

885
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:28,359
Speaker 2: our streets back by being tough on crime.

886
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:29,240
Speaker 3: Blah blah blah.

887
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 2: In Florida, like so many other states that have already

888
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 2: given their approval, personal amounts of marijuana will be legalized

889
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 2: for adults with Amendment three. Whether people like it or not,

890
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 2: this will happen through the approval of voters, so it

891
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 2: should be done correctly. We need the state legislature to

892
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 2: responsibly create laws that prohibit the use of it in

893
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 2: public spaces, so we do not smell marijuana everywhere we

894
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,760
Speaker 2: go like we do in many of the Democrats run cities. True,

895
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 2: at the same time, someone should not be criminal in

896
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 2: Florida when this is legal in so many other states.

897
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,439
Speaker 2: We do not need to ruin lives and waste packs

898
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 2: taxpayer dollars arresting adults with personal amounts of it on them.

899
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 2: And no one should grieve a loved one because they

900
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 2: died from fentsonal lace to marijuana. We will make America

901
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 2: safe again. So Trump is now fully in support of

902
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 2: Amendment three. And it's funny because a lot of the

903
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 2: criticism of the from the pro life side of Trump

904
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 2: on these amendments and all that applies exactly to this one.

905
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 3: This is not.

906
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 2: Let me be very clear, Amendment three is not decriminalization.

907
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 2: It is straight up commercial legalization of pot and the

908
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 2: same way that you see in Denver and everybody else,

909
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 2: which will lead to the massive proliferation of weed stores

910
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 2: literally everywhere, the futrid.

911
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 3: Smell of marijuana.

912
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 2: You can say whatever you want about, oh well we

913
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 2: need to prohibit public space. It's not going to happen

914
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 2: because the commercial incentive is way too strong. My friend

915
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 2: Charles Lehmann wrote a great Wall Street Journal op ed

916
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 2: just this morning about the problems with widespread legalization with

917
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 2: no curbs on commercialization. Excuse me, with no curbs on

918
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:04,399
Speaker 2: commercial lifeization, or on no curves on commercialization, or on

919
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 2: uh the increased percentage of THHC in products, no regulation

920
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 2: literally whatsoever. And by the time people even try and

921
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 2: get around to doing that, a lot of the damage

922
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 2: is already done in terms of traffic, fertilities, rising addiction,

923
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:25,359
Speaker 2: problems with children, schizophrenic breaks, and increased amounts of crime.

924
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 2: So that's all I would say on the subject. But

925
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 2: Trump clearly has quote gone woke on the issue. So

926
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 2: why why follow? Why follow popular trends on weed? But

927
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 2: on abortion, we're like, oh no, we got to you know, we.

928
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 1: Gotta well, you know, you know the answer to that,

929
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 1: because the abortion people are very powerful.

930
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 3: Well, maybe I should become founerful.

931
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 4: We don't, Maybe we should.

932
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, weed, Being against weed, especially against the commercialization of wheed,

933
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,840
Speaker 2: is probably a way more popular position than being straight

934
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 2: up pro life.

935
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 3: We have some of these IVF religious Catholics are.

936
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 1: So I have the pulling on it it depends on

937
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 1: you know, your definition of where these things lie. I

938
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:05,400
Speaker 1: guess in terms of the popularity of the position. But

939
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 1: overall support for marijuana legalization is seventy percent Democrats, it's

940
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 1: eighty seven percent, independence of seventy percent Republicans, it's fifty

941
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,359
Speaker 1: five percent. So even among Republicans it's a majority at

942
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:18,720
Speaker 1: this point. So you know, he's reading the poles.

943
00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 4: I guess.

944
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: I would just say, with all of this stuff, it

945
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,279
Speaker 1: just I don't know. You tell me if you feel

946
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 1: this way too. It all just feels really sort of

947
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:31,400
Speaker 1: flailing and desperate, like the panda is a little too obvious.

948
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:31,239
Speaker 4: You know.

949
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 1: I mean, it feels, especially on the abortion thing, like

950
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 1: all over the place. You can tell he's looking the polls.

951
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 1: He's like, I got a problem. What can I do.

952
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,760
Speaker 1: He's spinning his wheels, he's trying to throw different attacks

953
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 1: at Kamala against the wall that aren't really sticking the

954
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 1: wed thing out of nowhere feels the same way. It

955
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 1: just it all feels a little panicked and flailing and

956
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:55,240
Speaker 1: not considered and not you know, I'm again, I'm happy

957
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 1: for him if he's stuck with this pro choice position.

958
00:44:57,560 --> 00:44:59,720
Speaker 1: I prefer that I prefer you stick with his marijuana

959
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 1: poss We'll see if he does. He probably will because

960
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 1: there isn't as much of a powerful, organized constituency on

961
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 1: the other side. And you know, that's ultimately what caused

962
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 1: him to fold, which shows you just how powerful that

963
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 1: constituency continues to be in the Republican Party. Even with

964
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,919
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, who does have this, like, you know, very

965
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 1: strong hold on the base cult of personality around him.

966
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: With that whatever, even he felt like he couldn't hold

967
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 1: his position shifting on abortion without facing, you know, real

968
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 1: ramifications from that part of the Republican base. So so yeah,

969
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 1: in any case, he's reading the polls and looking at

970
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 1: that seventy percent overall support and thinking that he's got

971
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 1: to get on the right side of that. And I

972
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:42,319
Speaker 1: guess because it's on the ballot in Florida, he didn't

973
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 1: feel like he could not take a position on it,

974
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 1: or maybe he thought, you know, the other thing saga

975
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:48,400
Speaker 1: has just occurred to me. He's on the Lex Friedman

976
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 1: podcast today obviously excited about RFK Junior and Tulci Gabbard

977
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:55,799
Speaker 1: endorsing him. He's been going on all these different like

978
00:45:55,840 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 1: streamer and podcasts that's been a concerted strategy, and his

979
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 1: campaign thinks that they can reach young men in particular

980
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 1: through this like podcast approach. And in that frame, you know,

981
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 1: he changed his position on crypto. That was part of

982
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 1: the appeal to this audience. And so this could be

983
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 1: part of a concerted campaign strategy to appeal to young men,

984
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:22,319
Speaker 1: because if you look at age eighteen to thirty four,

985
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:26,760
Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of young people men and women age

986
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: eighteen to thirty four support marijuana legalization. So it could

987
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:31,439
Speaker 1: be a part and parcel to that strike.

988
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 2: It actually just occurred to me, Yeah, obviously correct, and

989
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 2: I know that's right, which is that this is an

990
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:40,240
Speaker 2: attempt to win over the coveted, the quot quote unquote

991
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 2: barstool social socially libertarian demographic people who don't trust mainstream

992
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 2: media listen to a lot of podcasts Lex Readman, Theovon

993
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 2: and all that right in that Sean Ryan podcast as

994
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 2: well the so called like YouTube politics space.

995
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 3: Which is predominantly on the right.

996
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:57,760
Speaker 2: Lex Readman is not right wing, but I'm saying previously

997
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,320
Speaker 2: there's been a lot of crossover with the least with

998
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 2: Sehan Ryan show, right in terms of politically the valance

999
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:05,279
Speaker 2: of what that looks like, and you want to be

1000
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 2: able to spread and try and reach people who traditionally

1001
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:10,800
Speaker 2: are not going to be in a mainstream platform. I

1002
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 2: think all of that is actually quite smart. Weed is

1003
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 2: almost certainly going to be a part of that. If

1004
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:17,760
Speaker 2: he does, let's say, appear on the Joe Rogan podcast,

1005
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 2: which you know we'll see, then it's Joe said he.

1006
00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 3: Doesn't want an interview him, but you know he may.

1007
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 3: I don't know, Joe would probably ask him about it.

1008
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 2: So he wants to get, you know, in a position

1009
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 2: where he's roughly in line with where it's going to be.

1010
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 2: But my only point on this is that it's very

1011
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 2: funny to meet it. It's like pander and go in

1012
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 2: one direction on one issue like Weed, but then on

1013
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,400
Speaker 2: you know, pro life or whatever, the genuine tyranny of

1014
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 2: that minority. You know, if we're thinking of like nessim

1015
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 2: teleb and how the most untolerant almost always win their

1016
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:50,439
Speaker 2: litmus tests are the ones that are literally forcing him

1017
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:54,360
Speaker 2: into one of the most unpopular positions in modern American history.

1018
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 2: And if he loses, it is no doubt in my

1019
00:47:56,640 --> 00:48:00,399
Speaker 2: mind that that is the only reason, why, why why

1020
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 2: he lost the election, it will be because of abortion.

1021
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 3: Now, there will be a lot more that backs all

1022
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:05,879
Speaker 3: that up.

1023
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:09,320
Speaker 2: But as we see from all the numbers that Harris graph,

1024
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 2: you know that you showed us on registration, on the animating,

1025
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:16,320
Speaker 2: you know reason why the Democrats are coming out to vote.

1026
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 2: It's just such an own goal for him, and it's

1027
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:22,919
Speaker 2: almost it is almost an insurmountable political force for him,

1028
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 2: where whereas I think he could have gotten past many

1029
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 2: many other things if this wasn't on the ballot.

1030
00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:30,840
Speaker 1: Well, and think about what just happened with these comments

1031
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:34,600
Speaker 1: and shifting positions whatever. He gave people a news cycle

1032
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 1: that's about abortion, which is the last thing he wants

1033
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 1: a new cycle about. And it's the polar opposite of

1034
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 1: what has always been his superpower.

1035
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 4: And this is what he's really.

1036
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 1: Struggled with in the Kamala Harris era, is because the

1037
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 1: Democrats aren't taking as a bait the way they used to,

1038
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 1: as evidenced by Commel in that interview. She gets asked

1039
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,360
Speaker 1: about like the you know you turn black comments and

1040
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 1: she's like, whatever, same old playbook, next question. They're not

1041
00:48:56,520 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 1: taking the bait, and he struggling to buying the news

1042
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 1: cycles and set the tone of the conversation and set

1043
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 1: the terms of the conversation in the way that he

1044
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 1: has always been able to do and that has been.

1045
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 4: So effective for him.

1046
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:13,240
Speaker 1: So with this like flailing all over the place with abortion,

1047
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 1: he gets the Democrats a news cycle about abortion, which is,

1048
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 1: you know, that's their greatest wish. If they have more

1049
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: days talking about abortion between now an election day and

1050
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 1: fewer days talking about immigration between now an election day.

1051
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 1: Guess what, that landscape is looking pretty good for them,

1052
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:31,080
Speaker 1: and he just gave them an assist in that regard.

1053
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 2: Turning now to Brazil, where there's an important freeze pech

1054
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:40,479
Speaker 2: free speech story, a surrounding Twitter and a big fight

1055
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:41,319
Speaker 2: with Elon Musk.

1056
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:43,800
Speaker 3: Let's put this up there on the screen.

1057
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:47,400
Speaker 2: Brazil has now blocked Elon Musk's X after the company

1058
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 2: has refused to comply. I made a feud with a

1059
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 2: federal judge. So this is a fascinating kind of a

1060
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 2: story that I had to delve into. Just any time

1061
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:58,959
Speaker 2: you know, we see a Twitter or X so called

1062
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:02,239
Speaker 2: or any social media company get literally blocked in a

1063
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 2: major country, it's important. But actually in Brazil, Twitter, YouTube

1064
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:09,319
Speaker 2: and social media plays a major outsize role, as I've

1065
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 2: learned from following Glenn Greenwald and kind of some of

1066
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 2: the other observers of what's happening. So this is actually

1067
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 2: especially important in a very large democracy and of course

1068
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 2: a place which is very nearby to the United States,

1069
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:22,919
Speaker 2: and perhaps what it all means.

1070
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 3: So it all begins kind of with this one.

1071
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 2: Judge Alexander, I'm going to butcher these Portuguese names, so

1072
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 2: I truly apologize. I'm going to go with Alexandra. Alexandre

1073
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 2: de Moore, a Brazilian Supreme Court justice ordered the Brazilian

1074
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 2: Telecom agency to block x from across the nation because

1075
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:42,879
Speaker 2: the company quote lacked a physical presence in Brazil. This

1076
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 2: is after Twitter's office in Brazil did not comply with

1077
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 2: a court order to remove so called quote X accounts

1078
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:55,399
Speaker 2: that said broke Brazilian law. All of these orders are

1079
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 2: sealed currently Twitter said that they will publish them. The

1080
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:03,279
Speaker 2: justice also originally said that any person in Brazil who

1081
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 2: still tried to use X via VPN software will be

1082
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:10,760
Speaker 2: fined some nine thousand dollars per day. Now I believe

1083
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 2: that has since been rescinded. The Lula government, though, has

1084
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:18,520
Speaker 2: backed up this basically blocking of Twitter, and there's been

1085
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 2: a major showdown now between Elon and between the country

1086
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:24,799
Speaker 2: of Brazil and its justice system. Let's put this up

1087
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 2: here as well. Friend of mine, Brendan Carr is actually

1088
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:30,320
Speaker 2: one of the FCC commissioners, put out a really interesting

1089
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:33,280
Speaker 2: analysis and he says that the text of this fifty

1090
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 2: one page decision to shut down X in Brazil is

1091
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 2: quote far more concerning and sweeping the headlines may suggest.

1092
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:40,600
Speaker 2: In his own words, it makes clear that they are

1093
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 2: attempting to strike a broader blow against free speech in

1094
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 2: favor of authoritarian control. His opinion does not try to

1095
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:48,360
Speaker 2: hide it. He comes out and points to Brexit and

1096
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:52,239
Speaker 2: the two sixteen election of Donald Trump as examples in

1097
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:55,600
Speaker 2: his telling of quote the types of extreme populist outcomes

1098
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 2: that he is attempting to avoid by imposing a new

1099
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:01,799
Speaker 2: censorship regime in Brazil, head of the country's elections later

1100
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:02,359
Speaker 2: this year.

1101
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 4: Quote.

1102
00:52:03,200 --> 00:52:06,320
Speaker 2: This type of censorship and political ideologically nature is explicitly

1103
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 2: prohibited by Brazil's own constitution. Nonetheless, they argue that free

1104
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:13,480
Speaker 2: speech on X quote cannot be allowed to continue because

1105
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:16,799
Speaker 2: the diversity of political opinions expressed on the site might

1106
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:19,839
Speaker 2: influence the people of Brazil ahead of their twenty twenty

1107
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 2: four elections. In other words, he is arguing that free

1108
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 2: speech is a threat to democracy and the quote, of

1109
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 2: course the opposite is true. So he warns in his

1110
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 2: decision that they warned over the playbook of labeling political

1111
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 2: speech that runs contrary Torrents and orthodoxy is quote misinformation

1112
00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 2: and disinformation. So there's a lot of seeds of a

1113
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 2: lot of the same debates that we have here Bristol.

1114
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:43,439
Speaker 2: And of course this also affects our friend of the show,

1115
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:46,439
Speaker 2: Glenn Greenwald as well, who you know we're always thinking

1116
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:48,479
Speaker 2: about here and his safety as well.

1117
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 3: But it is extremely I mean, it's concerning, and it.

1118
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 2: Is also perhaps a preview of especially what is to

1119
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 2: come with some major fights, especially with Elon's ownership over

1120
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,360
Speaker 2: Twitter in country trees where Elon does not want to

1121
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:02,360
Speaker 2: comply with the current.

1122
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 1: Law, yeah, which is not all countries, because he has

1123
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:09,719
Speaker 1: succeeded to many government censorship requests. I'll get more to

1124
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 1: that in a minute. Just to back up a little

1125
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 1: bit where this fight originates, as best I understand, and

1126
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 1: let me admit I am no expert in Brazilian politics.

1127
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:21,279
Speaker 1: This is my simplistic understanding. Effectively, they had kind of

1128
00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 1: akin to a January sixth situation. Bolsanar lost the election

1129
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:29,440
Speaker 1: to Lula, he denied those results. You know, there was

1130
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 1: a whole spin up of like stop the Steel style

1131
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 1: activism online on places like Twitter and culminated in this

1132
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 1: storming of a government building, again kind of akin to

1133
00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 1: January sixth. So in response to that, there was a

1134
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 1: crackdown on speech in Brazil, and you know, this ruling

1135
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 1: from this judge is part of that. By the way,

1136
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:56,360
Speaker 1: it's worth mentioning that a larger panel of the Brazilian

1137
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 1: Supreme Court that I believe had five members on it

1138
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:01,040
Speaker 1: unanimously backed up this judge.

1139
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:01,839
Speaker 4: So there's been.

1140
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 1: Attempt to kind of personalize and make it just about

1141
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:07,080
Speaker 1: this dude. But this larger panel also backed up the

1142
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 1: ruling and found it to be grounded in Brazilian law.

1143
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 1: The specific thing that they're pointing to here is it

1144
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:17,840
Speaker 1: all spawned from a request to take down certain accounts.

1145
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:20,680
Speaker 1: Those accounts, as you mentioned, Saga, the rulings of exactly

1146
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 1: which accounts they were, it was actually sealed. Elon has

1147
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 1: now actually docked them and their real names and revealed.

1148
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:27,439
Speaker 4: Who they were.

1149
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:30,840
Speaker 1: They were all these Bolsnaro aligned type of right wing

1150
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 1: activists who the courts wanted them to block. There was

1151
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:38,480
Speaker 1: a threat apparently that the according this is according to Elon,

1152
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 1: that their representative in the country could face personal arrest

1153
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:47,240
Speaker 1: and prosecution. So he removes that legal representative from the country.

1154
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 1: And then that's actually the piece that triggers the suspension

1155
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:53,840
Speaker 1: is under Brazilian law, if you were going to operate

1156
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 1: a social media platform in the country, you have to

1157
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 1: have a legal representative.

1158
00:54:58,680 --> 00:55:00,120
Speaker 4: Elon refused to name a.

1159
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:02,759
Speaker 1: Legal representative of Twitter in the country, and so that's

1160
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 1: the specific thing that ends up sparking this whole situation

1161
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 1: for the people of Brazil. There's no doubt that this

1162
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: is a I mean, the VPN thing is crazy, Like

1163
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:15,680
Speaker 1: it's not clear how that would be enforced or if

1164
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:18,480
Speaker 1: that's actually going to you know, remain in effect. But

1165
00:55:18,520 --> 00:55:21,399
Speaker 1: the idea of finding people nine thousand dollars to use

1166
00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:24,920
Speaker 1: a VPN, and that's a massive amount in any country anywhere,

1167
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 1: but also you know, specifically in the country of Brazil insane.

1168
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 1: Given you know, I'd have to look up what the

1169
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:34,600
Speaker 1: average like median salary is per year there but that's

1170
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:37,920
Speaker 1: just that's wild, right, And in the same way that

1171
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 1: when you ban Twitter, Telegram, WhatsApp and countries like China

1172
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:45,880
Speaker 1: and countries like Russia, obviously it's a free speech issue

1173
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:47,759
Speaker 1: for the people of Brazil.

1174
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:49,839
Speaker 4: I think with regard to.

1175
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:54,920
Speaker 1: Elon, though specifically, it's makes more sense in the context

1176
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 1: of thinking of this as an ideological project. And the

1177
00:55:58,800 --> 00:56:02,760
Speaker 1: reason I say that is because, as I alluded to before,

1178
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:04,720
Speaker 1: and we can put C three up on the screen,

1179
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 1: when it was countries with leaders and political movements that

1180
00:56:08,160 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 1: were in charge that Elon is ideologically aligned to, he

1181
00:56:12,600 --> 00:56:16,560
Speaker 1: agreed to the censorship requests. He you know, he did

1182
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 1: it with Turkey, he did it with India. These were

1183
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:21,360
Speaker 1: kind of the two most famous examples. When we interviewed

1184
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:23,880
Speaker 1: Jack Dorsey, he made a point that was really important

1185
00:56:23,880 --> 00:56:26,680
Speaker 1: that was actually that listen under my leadership, and there

1186
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 1: were all kinds of you know, issues that we criticized

1187
00:56:28,719 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 1: at the time, but they actually had a common free

1188
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 1: speech understanding and they pushed back on more government censorship

1189
00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 1: requests than Elon has. Now that he is you know,

1190
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:44,760
Speaker 1: in charge of and owns Twitter. Some eighty three percent

1191
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:50,800
Speaker 1: of government censorship requests have been agreed to by Elon Musk.

1192
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:53,399
Speaker 1: So you asked yourself, Okay, well, what's different between twit,

1193
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:56,919
Speaker 1: you know, Turkey and India and Brazil. And it's hard

1194
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:59,359
Speaker 1: not to come to the conclusion that the difference is

1195
00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 1: an ideal line one. And so that's why in one

1196
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:04,719
Speaker 1: instance he says, yes, I will help you government of

1197
00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 1: Turkey government, you know mody in India, and no I

1198
00:57:08,600 --> 00:57:11,640
Speaker 1: will not in country or Brazil. The other reason that

1199
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 1: I say that is because another thing we talked about

1200
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 1: at the time, Sager, is that that we disagreed with,

1201
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 1: by the way, at the time and continue to I

1202
00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:22,960
Speaker 1: continue to disagree with. His definition of free speech was

1203
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 1: and this is how he justified those takedowns in India

1204
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:30,120
Speaker 1: and Turkey was well, whatever the laws of the country are,

1205
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 1: that's what I have to follow, and that's my definition

1206
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:36,360
Speaker 1: of free speech. He said this in particular in a

1207
00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:38,720
Speaker 1: big interview sit down he did with BBC that you

1208
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 1: guys might remember, Let's take a listen to a little

1209
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 1: bit of that.

1210
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:45,760
Speaker 8: We have our responsibility to adhere to the law and

1211
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 8: if people want the law changed, they should talk to

1212
00:57:48,880 --> 00:57:51,680
Speaker 8: elect talk to their electric representative and get the load changed.

1213
00:57:51,720 --> 00:57:53,440
Speaker 8: And then we will adhere to the law, okay, but

1214
00:57:53,480 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 8: if you want to see beyond the law, that is

1215
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:59,240
Speaker 8: that is us deciding to be censors. So and I'm

1216
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:02,240
Speaker 8: against censor. I'm a favor of freedom of speech. And

1217
00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 8: freedom of speech only is relevant when people you don't

1218
00:58:05,160 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 8: like say things you don't like. Otherwise it has no meaning.

1219
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 4: So sorry.

1220
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 1: That was actually the Don Lemon Show. There was a

1221
00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 1: different interview with BBC. You can put that up on

1222
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 1: the screen from CNN wrote up the interview, but he

1223
00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 1: makes very similar comments about you know, he said he

1224
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:22,840
Speaker 1: has no actual choice about government censorship requests and that

1225
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:26,040
Speaker 1: their definition of free speech is effectively following the laws

1226
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:27,920
Speaker 1: of whatever country. Now you could see the problems with

1227
00:58:27,960 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 1: that because there are all kinds of repressive regimes around

1228
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:32,040
Speaker 1: the country. You wouldn't want to be following, you know,

1229
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:36,120
Speaker 1: the laws of Saudi Arabia and consider that to be

1230
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 1: free speech. But that was his definition, at least when

1231
00:58:39,520 --> 00:58:41,920
Speaker 1: it came to countries where you know, he had a

1232
00:58:42,080 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 1: either business or friendly ideological relationship with the government. And

1233
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:49,360
Speaker 1: it's different when it's Brazil because it's Lula and it's

1234
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 1: left wing and so he has an ideological disagreement with

1235
00:58:52,560 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 1: the government. So I think that that's you know, the

1236
00:58:55,200 --> 00:58:56,320
Speaker 1: best sort of frame to think about.

1237
00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 2: It's probably ideology, but I mean I think a lot

1238
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:00,600
Speaker 2: of it is business too with Elon, and that's part

1239
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:02,600
Speaker 2: I will never you know, this is all was problem

1240
00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:04,640
Speaker 2: with Elan A lot of stuff on this. One of

1241
00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 2: the reasons why I'll never open his mouth about China,

1242
00:59:06,840 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 2: the most censorious government in the history of the world

1243
00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 2: whenever it comes to social media, is that he has

1244
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:17,320
Speaker 2: a massive commercial interest in China, in SpaceX and Twitter.

1245
00:59:17,600 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 2: It's not actually that big of a business bottom line,

1246
00:59:20,840 --> 00:59:24,040
Speaker 2: whereas India is what the most populous country in the

1247
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:26,840
Speaker 2: whole world. Elon literally had met with Mody. You could

1248
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:29,680
Speaker 2: call it ideology. I would actually call it much more business.

1249
00:59:29,680 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 2: So he'll pick the fight whenever it both aligns with

1250
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,520
Speaker 2: ideology and it isn't going to hurt him on his

1251
00:59:34,600 --> 00:59:37,520
Speaker 2: business bottom line. And this is always I've always said this,

1252
00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:40,080
Speaker 2: This's a huge problem with him, is that he will

1253
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:43,720
Speaker 2: and wants to comply with a lot of Chinese censorship,

1254
00:59:43,800 --> 00:59:48,040
Speaker 2: specifically because they have Tesla the company, they can destroy

1255
00:59:48,120 --> 00:59:51,919
Speaker 2: them overnight anytime they want it, with their supply chain,

1256
00:59:52,080 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 2: with their batteries and with Giga Shanghai specifically, So if

1257
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:57,840
Speaker 2: you look at the problems that he has in that.

1258
00:59:57,800 --> 00:59:59,000
Speaker 3: Regard, it's really big.

1259
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:01,640
Speaker 2: Nonetheless, I mean, like you said, we're going to take

1260
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:04,080
Speaker 2: I mean, like in this particular case, it's really bad.

1261
01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:07,440
Speaker 2: The company, which I think, to their credit, who has

1262
01:00:07,480 --> 01:00:10,040
Speaker 2: been the most consistent is actually Rumble. They have denied

1263
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:13,400
Speaker 2: all censorship press basically across the board. They have fought

1264
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:16,960
Speaker 2: them in court. Chris Pavlovski, the CEO of Rumble, actually

1265
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:18,880
Speaker 2: put out, you know, an interesting thing just about some

1266
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:21,240
Speaker 2: of the history of the both the Brazil case, but

1267
01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 2: also many others which they've refused to comply with, many

1268
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:29,440
Speaker 2: of which are complete bs, both in the UK, in France,

1269
01:00:29,680 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 2: all across the developed world.

1270
01:00:31,240 --> 01:00:33,120
Speaker 3: I think one of the reasons why this is really important.

1271
01:00:33,120 --> 01:00:34,600
Speaker 2: Oh, by the way, I looked it up, GDP per

1272
01:00:34,600 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 2: capita in Brazil is eight hundred dollars, so nine thousand

1273
01:00:37,760 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 2: dollars a day is quite literally the yearly average salary

1274
01:00:40,520 --> 01:00:43,760
Speaker 2: of Azil inside. So if we think though about what

1275
01:00:43,800 --> 01:00:45,880
Speaker 2: this may mean in the future, is there is a

1276
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:48,840
Speaker 2: big fight that is being set up specifically in the

1277
01:00:48,880 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: developed world.

1278
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:52,280
Speaker 3: It usually you know, the rules.

1279
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:54,120
Speaker 2: In the playbook may be a little bit more ham

1280
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:57,960
Speaker 2: handed in Brazil's, in Russia, in India, but you know,

1281
01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:01,720
Speaker 2: make no mistake in France, in the UK, in Germany.

1282
01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:04,680
Speaker 2: You know, perhaps maybe later this week I'll talk about,

1283
01:01:04,840 --> 01:01:07,880
Speaker 2: you know, in Germany the AfD winning its first state

1284
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 2: election since World War Two. You just wait and see

1285
01:01:11,200 --> 01:01:15,520
Speaker 2: how those scientology era scientology, you know, right wing laws

1286
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:17,480
Speaker 2: that are on the books, how they're going to try

1287
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:21,920
Speaker 2: and be enforced there. So this has major, major political ramifications.

1288
01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 2: And not only that, the EU regulatory regime, which is

1289
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:27,040
Speaker 2: one of the most insane regulatory regimes in the world,

1290
01:01:27,320 --> 01:01:30,360
Speaker 2: is much more aligned with this kind of Brazilian view

1291
01:01:30,720 --> 01:01:32,960
Speaker 2: of things. And you know, in a certain sense, he's

1292
01:01:33,000 --> 01:01:36,280
Speaker 2: not wrong in terms of how populous quote unquote politics

1293
01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 2: and others can bubble up through through online and social media,

1294
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:43,640
Speaker 2: because by definition they have to circumvent the established powers

1295
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:45,800
Speaker 2: and then the you know, the damage that can be wrought.

1296
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 2: We watched this in the UK with the riots where

1297
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:51,120
Speaker 2: immediately they're charging and throwing people in jail for literally

1298
01:01:51,120 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 2: whipping up, you know, whipping up quote unquote bad sentiment

1299
01:01:54,720 --> 01:01:57,240
Speaker 2: on online and a lot of that was on Twitter,

1300
01:01:57,400 --> 01:01:58,000
Speaker 2: that's really.

1301
01:01:57,840 --> 01:02:01,000
Speaker 1: Scary to pick up on business point, which is an

1302
01:02:01,000 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 1: important one. Just to clarify one thing, Brazil is one

1303
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:06,000
Speaker 1: of Twitter's largest markets, So you might look at that

1304
01:02:06,040 --> 01:02:08,200
Speaker 1: and say, oh, well, he has a huge business interest.

1305
01:02:08,640 --> 01:02:11,960
Speaker 1: Twitter is Elon Musk is Megan his money, and so

1306
01:02:12,200 --> 01:02:15,640
Speaker 1: Twitter is basically, you know, Elon bought it in the

1307
01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:18,960
Speaker 1: same reason that Jeff Bezos brought bought The Washington Post.

1308
01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:22,080
Speaker 1: As an ideological tool. I think it's I think we

1309
01:02:22,080 --> 01:02:24,919
Speaker 1: should think of Elon's ownership of Twitter in the same

1310
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 1: way we think about Rupert Murdoch's ownership of Fox Math. Sure, right,

1311
01:02:29,160 --> 01:02:32,280
Speaker 1: it's an ideological tool. I mean, this is not. He

1312
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:33,720
Speaker 1: can't even pretend to be a neutral actor.

1313
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:35,400
Speaker 4: At this point. He has endorsed Donald Trump.

1314
01:02:35,640 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 1: He is putting millions towards Trump's campaign on Twitter. You know,

1315
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:42,960
Speaker 1: the algorithm has you know, really surfaces, And I don't

1316
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:45,040
Speaker 1: think that this is actually I agree with Ryan that

1317
01:02:45,080 --> 01:02:48,880
Speaker 1: this has been to their detriment and has convinced right

1318
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 1: wing users that their voices are more their view points,

1319
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:54,920
Speaker 1: are more popular than they actually are, more prevalent, more

1320
01:02:54,920 --> 01:02:58,600
Speaker 1: influential than they actually are. But he's using Twitter as

1321
01:02:58,640 --> 01:03:02,600
Speaker 1: an ideological tool for the policies and type of governance

1322
01:03:02,640 --> 01:03:05,600
Speaker 1: that he wants to see. And so when you're thinking

1323
01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:08,480
Speaker 1: about these disputes that he's having with various countries, why

1324
01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:10,960
Speaker 1: this country there's a dispute, why that country he just

1325
01:03:11,000 --> 01:03:13,600
Speaker 1: accepts the censorship. I think you're right the business piece

1326
01:03:13,640 --> 01:03:15,560
Speaker 1: is important to take into account as well.

1327
01:03:15,600 --> 01:03:16,760
Speaker 4: But then also you.

1328
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:20,760
Speaker 1: Know his goals for Twitter as an ideological tool or

1329
01:03:20,760 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 1: an important part of understanding what's going on there as well.

1330
01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:23,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's smart.

1331
01:03:23,920 --> 01:03:27,000
Speaker 2: So anyways, it's a concerning situation. I'll continue to monitor it,

1332
01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:30,120
Speaker 2: and especially just thinking about you know, Glenn Greenwall being

1333
01:03:30,640 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 2: in Brazil and some of the dangers that all come

1334
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:36,200
Speaker 2: with that, you know, always thinking about him and his safety.

1335
01:03:39,040 --> 01:03:41,120
Speaker 1: Huge news, we can put this up on the screen.

1336
01:03:41,160 --> 01:03:47,520
Speaker 1: There are massive protests in Israel, and the reason for

1337
01:03:47,560 --> 01:03:52,520
Speaker 1: these protests or you had six hostages, including that Israeli

1338
01:03:52,560 --> 01:03:56,640
Speaker 1: American whose parents spoke at the DNC, who were found

1339
01:03:57,000 --> 01:03:59,400
Speaker 1: dead in the Gaza strip. We're going to talk more

1340
01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:02,560
Speaker 1: about the their circumstances of their death in a moment

1341
01:04:02,680 --> 01:04:06,000
Speaker 1: which appears to be and this was sort of confirmed

1342
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:10,360
Speaker 1: by Hamas that as IDF soldiers were closing in on them.

1343
01:04:10,800 --> 01:04:11,840
Speaker 4: Their Hamas or.

1344
01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:16,080
Speaker 1: Other affiliated captors were under instructions to rather than let

1345
01:04:16,120 --> 01:04:19,520
Speaker 1: them be rescued by the IDF, to shoot them and

1346
01:04:19,640 --> 01:04:23,080
Speaker 1: kill them. However, the reason these protests have broken out

1347
01:04:23,120 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 1: and they are we're talking about hundreds of thousands of

1348
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:28,720
Speaker 1: people in the streets best I can tell, largest protests

1349
01:04:28,720 --> 01:04:32,880
Speaker 1: since these this war began, you know, post October seventh,

1350
01:04:33,400 --> 01:04:39,160
Speaker 1: is because they directly and correctly blame Bibi nan Yahoo

1351
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:45,960
Speaker 1: for putting his own political survival over the survival.

1352
01:04:45,600 --> 01:04:46,880
Speaker 4: Of the hostages.

1353
01:04:47,320 --> 01:04:49,800
Speaker 1: So you know, that has been the framing of a

1354
01:04:49,920 --> 01:04:53,440
Speaker 1: lot of Israeli media that has been I'm going to

1355
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:55,200
Speaker 1: play you for you in a moment one of the

1356
01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:59,000
Speaker 1: key opposition figures in Israel. They are saying the hostage families,

1357
01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:03,200
Speaker 1: they are directly saying their blood is on your hands

1358
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:06,640
Speaker 1: because rather than take the deal that was on the table,

1359
01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:10,000
Speaker 1: rather negotiate in good faith, you have done nothing but

1360
01:05:10,120 --> 01:05:14,560
Speaker 1: try to undercut these negotiations and guarantee that the war

1361
01:05:14,840 --> 01:05:18,840
Speaker 1: would continue because of your desire to maintain your own

1362
01:05:19,160 --> 01:05:24,000
Speaker 1: political standing. So, in addition to these protests, and what

1363
01:05:24,080 --> 01:05:26,320
Speaker 1: I showed you in that video was they were being

1364
01:05:26,360 --> 01:05:29,680
Speaker 1: treated incredibly aggressively by the Israeli police, sprayed with what's

1365
01:05:29,720 --> 01:05:33,880
Speaker 1: called skunk spray. They also were hit with stun grenades.

1366
01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:37,440
Speaker 1: You might contrast that with the treatment and encouragement of

1367
01:05:37,480 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 1: the right wing protesters who were blocking Aid going into gaza,

1368
01:05:40,800 --> 01:05:44,680
Speaker 1: where they were enabled, encouraged, et cetera. Here very a

1369
01:05:44,720 --> 01:05:48,440
Speaker 1: pretty vicious crackdown from the Israeli police. Let's put D

1370
01:05:48,560 --> 01:05:50,960
Speaker 1: two up on the screen. In addition to the protest,

1371
01:05:51,040 --> 01:05:56,120
Speaker 1: there was a relatively brief general strike led by this

1372
01:05:56,600 --> 01:06:02,000
Speaker 1: long standing labor union in Israel. Friend of the show

1373
01:06:02,080 --> 01:06:04,760
Speaker 1: Demi reader had put out a long thread sort of

1374
01:06:04,760 --> 01:06:06,479
Speaker 1: explaining the background of this union.

1375
01:06:06,560 --> 01:06:07,000
Speaker 3: What they are.

1376
01:06:07,120 --> 01:06:09,840
Speaker 1: My understanding based on his thread is that it's a

1377
01:06:09,960 --> 01:06:13,040
Speaker 1: sort of, you know, very top down labor union tied

1378
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:15,720
Speaker 1: in pretty closely with the government. There was a ruling

1379
01:06:15,800 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 1: that came back that said, hey, you can't do this

1380
01:06:17,840 --> 01:06:21,640
Speaker 1: general strike because it doesn't directly have an economic tie in,

1381
01:06:21,760 --> 01:06:24,280
Speaker 1: and they just sort of like back down, like okay, fine, whatever.

1382
01:06:24,600 --> 01:06:26,840
Speaker 1: But that doesn't undercut the fact that you've had this

1383
01:06:27,280 --> 01:06:32,000
Speaker 1: huge grassroots in the streets reaction to this latest news.

1384
01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:33,720
Speaker 1: Let me go and put D three up on the screen.

1385
01:06:33,760 --> 01:06:35,840
Speaker 1: To give you some of the details here. This is

1386
01:06:35,840 --> 01:06:39,320
Speaker 1: from the Washington Post headline is protests escalating israelter six

1387
01:06:39,440 --> 01:06:44,160
Speaker 1: hostages bodies are recovered in Gaza, including Hirsch Goldberg, Poland

1388
01:06:44,160 --> 01:06:47,280
Speaker 1: that Israeli American I met reference before and five others

1389
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:50,480
Speaker 1: that Hamas took hostage on October seventh, according to the

1390
01:06:50,520 --> 01:06:53,440
Speaker 1: IDF and as I said sort of confirmed by Hamas.

1391
01:06:53,720 --> 01:06:57,080
Speaker 1: They were killed shortly before being found. They say in

1392
01:06:57,120 --> 01:07:00,880
Speaker 1: this article Israeli's react with shock and fury after the

1393
01:07:00,920 --> 01:07:04,960
Speaker 1: bodies of those six hostages were recovered. They also say

1394
01:07:05,160 --> 01:07:08,160
Speaker 1: that they were found roughly half a mile from the

1395
01:07:08,160 --> 01:07:11,520
Speaker 1: tunnel where the IDF rescued a living hostage last week.

1396
01:07:11,880 --> 01:07:15,040
Speaker 1: The bodies were taken to the National Center of Forensic Medicine,

1397
01:07:15,160 --> 01:07:17,560
Speaker 1: where and examination determined the six had been killed by

1398
01:07:17,640 --> 01:07:21,760
Speaker 1: multiple close range gunshots. Again, that's the Israeli analysis of

1399
01:07:21,760 --> 01:07:25,440
Speaker 1: what happened, but Sager getting to some of the reaction

1400
01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:29,120
Speaker 1: from some of the hostages' families. One of the hostages

1401
01:07:29,120 --> 01:07:33,840
Speaker 1: who had been released in the previous brief ceasefire deal,

1402
01:07:34,360 --> 01:07:38,280
Speaker 1: released in November after fifty five days in captivity, accus

1403
01:07:38,400 --> 01:07:44,160
Speaker 1: bb of quote perpetrating psychological terror on us like Hamas

1404
01:07:44,520 --> 01:07:47,560
Speaker 1: perpetrated on us. So that is the strength of the

1405
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:49,360
Speaker 1: sentiment among a lot of the population.

1406
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:52,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been very interesting to consume this through Western media,

1407
01:07:52,920 --> 01:07:55,440
Speaker 2: through US media, and then through Israeli media. So I

1408
01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:57,000
Speaker 2: was in the UK when all this was happening, so

1409
01:07:57,000 --> 01:07:59,439
Speaker 2: I watched BBC. BBC is actually quite good. I hate

1410
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 2: to say it, but they do a general.

1411
01:08:01,480 --> 01:08:02,760
Speaker 4: Big better than ours media.

1412
01:08:02,800 --> 01:08:04,160
Speaker 3: They do a good job of being like, here's a

1413
01:08:04,240 --> 01:08:07,920
Speaker 3: view from Israel, here's a view from from the US,

1414
01:08:07,960 --> 01:08:10,760
Speaker 3: like US politician President Biden has issued this, here's what

1415
01:08:10,800 --> 01:08:12,680
Speaker 3: the Prime minister has said. And actually the UK just

1416
01:08:12,720 --> 01:08:14,560
Speaker 3: suspended some arm sales to Israel.

1417
01:08:14,560 --> 01:08:16,479
Speaker 2: So there's a little bit of a difference in the

1418
01:08:16,479 --> 01:08:18,160
Speaker 2: way that they think about things over there.

1419
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:20,439
Speaker 1: That was you know, Cure Starmer in charge now so

1420
01:08:20,600 --> 01:08:23,840
Speaker 1: Labor he's been he's pretty pro Israel, but at least

1421
01:08:23,880 --> 01:08:25,720
Speaker 1: he feels like he needs to make some sort of

1422
01:08:25,760 --> 01:08:26,639
Speaker 1: moves in this direction.

1423
01:08:26,960 --> 01:08:29,320
Speaker 2: Only point is that it's so different in the way

1424
01:08:29,320 --> 01:08:30,760
Speaker 2: that you consume a lot of this, Because if you

1425
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:32,439
Speaker 2: were watching Fox News, you'd be like, oh, this is

1426
01:08:32,479 --> 01:08:33,840
Speaker 2: one hundred percent on Joe Biden.

1427
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:35,880
Speaker 3: They're like, what like how's that possible?

1428
01:08:35,880 --> 01:08:38,080
Speaker 2: If you watch MSNBC, I guess you're probably just gonna

1429
01:08:38,080 --> 01:08:40,080
Speaker 2: be like, this is a one hundred percent on Bbe. But

1430
01:08:40,360 --> 01:08:42,720
Speaker 2: I mean, the view in Israel seems to be a

1431
01:08:42,760 --> 01:08:47,559
Speaker 2: major split between those who are pro hostage negotiation and

1432
01:08:47,640 --> 01:08:52,000
Speaker 2: cease fire, because their prime objective is saving the hostages,

1433
01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:56,160
Speaker 2: not the so called destruction of Hamas. And then where

1434
01:08:56,240 --> 01:08:59,360
Speaker 2: you fall on that question is kind of whether you

1435
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:01,920
Speaker 2: agree with the prosecution of the war and even the

1436
01:09:01,960 --> 01:09:05,280
Speaker 2: aims of the war itself. So that is a big,

1437
01:09:05,560 --> 01:09:09,400
Speaker 2: kind of interesting thing because in America, you know, if

1438
01:09:09,439 --> 01:09:11,800
Speaker 2: you were to look at what people think the prime

1439
01:09:12,560 --> 01:09:15,559
Speaker 2: aim of the Israeli military would be in America, it's

1440
01:09:15,600 --> 01:09:17,920
Speaker 2: probably the destruction of Hamas and like live revenge for

1441
01:09:18,000 --> 01:09:21,120
Speaker 2: October seventh, whereas they think about things very very differently

1442
01:09:21,439 --> 01:09:24,920
Speaker 2: over there. The fact that the protests did explode like

1443
01:09:24,960 --> 01:09:28,200
Speaker 2: this against the Israeli government after they were literally murdered

1444
01:09:28,240 --> 01:09:31,240
Speaker 2: in cold blood by Hamas does tell you, though, something

1445
01:09:31,360 --> 01:09:32,880
Speaker 2: is that they're not willing to be like this is

1446
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:35,200
Speaker 2: one hundred percent on Hamas, kind of the way that

1447
01:09:35,240 --> 01:09:38,559
Speaker 2: a US based commentator predominantly saying that now, of course

1448
01:09:38,600 --> 01:09:40,400
Speaker 2: they did murder them, and they did murder them in

1449
01:09:40,400 --> 01:09:44,760
Speaker 2: cold blood, which is horrible. From the Israeli side, they're like, yeah,

1450
01:09:44,840 --> 01:09:47,280
Speaker 2: we know that they're blood thirsty terrorists.

1451
01:09:47,360 --> 01:09:49,519
Speaker 3: That's why we need to do a ceasefire to get

1452
01:09:49,560 --> 01:09:50,519
Speaker 3: them the hell out of there.

1453
01:09:50,600 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the way that you think about that is

1454
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:57,200
Speaker 2: really important. I don't know, though, how much credence to

1455
01:09:57,240 --> 01:10:01,080
Speaker 2: even give that side though at this point, because if

1456
01:10:01,080 --> 01:10:05,000
Speaker 2: the ceasefire just seems so impossible at this current time,

1457
01:10:05,080 --> 01:10:08,360
Speaker 2: I mean, with the US government all these various frameworks,

1458
01:10:08,600 --> 01:10:10,160
Speaker 2: it just seems to me that if it was going

1459
01:10:10,200 --> 01:10:12,280
Speaker 2: to happen, it would have happened. And I think Israel's

1460
01:10:12,280 --> 01:10:15,040
Speaker 2: cast is die. I think they the BB Netanyahu government

1461
01:10:15,200 --> 01:10:17,120
Speaker 2: as it currently stands, I don't think they will ever

1462
01:10:17,160 --> 01:10:20,719
Speaker 2: agree to a ceasefire under Hamas. Maybe it was possible

1463
01:10:20,880 --> 01:10:24,599
Speaker 2: before who was it was killed, but after that, you know,

1464
01:10:24,680 --> 01:10:27,160
Speaker 2: the people who are left in power are not the ones. Yeah,

1465
01:10:27,160 --> 01:10:29,920
Speaker 2: they're not the ones who want to pursue a cease fire.

1466
01:10:30,439 --> 01:10:33,200
Speaker 2: And it seems here that these the Hamas people who

1467
01:10:33,320 --> 01:10:36,800
Speaker 2: murdered the terrorists or sor I murdered the hostages and

1468
01:10:36,920 --> 01:10:39,040
Speaker 2: were on orders from higher command to kill them if

1469
01:10:39,040 --> 01:10:42,040
Speaker 2: they were to ever fall into IDF, if they were

1470
01:10:42,080 --> 01:10:46,240
Speaker 2: to fall back into IDF custody, the people who are

1471
01:10:46,280 --> 01:10:48,600
Speaker 2: in power seem to be just as extreme, if not

1472
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:51,080
Speaker 2: more extreme than before. So we're in a lose lose

1473
01:10:51,120 --> 01:10:52,599
Speaker 2: situation on both of those sides.

1474
01:10:52,640 --> 01:10:56,640
Speaker 1: So it was Ismael Haneya and who was assassinated in

1475
01:10:57,640 --> 01:11:01,400
Speaker 1: Iran and the Iranian capital in Tehran, and he was

1476
01:11:01,400 --> 01:11:03,280
Speaker 1: the lead negotiator. It was like the head of the

1477
01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:07,280
Speaker 1: political wing of Hamas. And now it's Yaya Snore who

1478
01:11:07,520 --> 01:11:11,559
Speaker 1: orchestrated the October seventh attacks, who is now the lead

1479
01:11:11,640 --> 01:11:15,519
Speaker 1: negotiator has been put into that position. So yeah, I mean,

1480
01:11:16,120 --> 01:11:23,480
Speaker 1: bbe literally murdered in a foreign nation's capital the lead negotiator,

1481
01:11:23,760 --> 01:11:26,880
Speaker 1: So I think that's pretty telling about his commitment to

1482
01:11:27,000 --> 01:11:30,599
Speaker 1: these negotiations. And these really people aren't stupid. They can

1483
01:11:30,640 --> 01:11:34,120
Speaker 1: see all of this. There is talk listen.

1484
01:11:34,240 --> 01:11:34,880
Speaker 4: I'm not there.

1485
01:11:35,160 --> 01:11:38,040
Speaker 1: I don't have a fine understanding of Israeli politics, so

1486
01:11:38,120 --> 01:11:41,200
Speaker 1: I can't say how likely this is or not. But

1487
01:11:41,400 --> 01:11:44,320
Speaker 1: you know, our friend Shaiel ben Fraim, who's like a

1488
01:11:44,360 --> 01:11:46,760
Speaker 1: liberal Zionis that we had on the show before, and

1489
01:11:46,960 --> 01:11:49,800
Speaker 1: others are saying there is a chance BB's government could

1490
01:11:49,880 --> 01:11:54,240
Speaker 1: actually fall this week if these protests continue, and especially

1491
01:11:54,280 --> 01:11:56,479
Speaker 1: if you were to have a longer general strike, which

1492
01:11:56,520 --> 01:11:58,479
Speaker 1: the general strike has already ended, as I mentioned before,

1493
01:11:58,560 --> 01:12:00,559
Speaker 1: So perhaps some of that pressure has been taken off,

1494
01:12:00,920 --> 01:12:03,840
Speaker 1: but you still have polls saying seventy percent of Israelis

1495
01:12:03,960 --> 01:12:06,759
Speaker 1: want Babe to go. They do not want him to

1496
01:12:07,000 --> 01:12:10,040
Speaker 1: stand for election again. So there is definitely a majority

1497
01:12:10,120 --> 01:12:12,840
Speaker 1: sentiment of we would like to move on from this

1498
01:12:12,920 --> 01:12:18,439
Speaker 1: particular brand of political leadership, and if the pressure cooker

1499
01:12:18,479 --> 01:12:20,760
Speaker 1: gets turned up high enough, potentially you could see the

1500
01:12:20,760 --> 01:12:24,320
Speaker 1: government fall this week. I have to be skeptical and

1501
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:26,640
Speaker 1: cynical of that, just because this guy is such a

1502
01:12:26,640 --> 01:12:29,080
Speaker 1: freaking political survivor, you know, I mean, I just have

1503
01:12:29,120 --> 01:12:30,880
Speaker 1: to go back to that he's made it this far

1504
01:12:31,439 --> 01:12:37,000
Speaker 1: when after October seventh, his whole philosophy of security was

1505
01:12:37,040 --> 01:12:41,479
Speaker 1: in tatters, his reputation was in utter tatters. Yes, of

1506
01:12:41,479 --> 01:12:44,040
Speaker 1: course people blame herm us, as they should, but they

1507
01:12:44,080 --> 01:12:46,320
Speaker 1: also looked and said, listen, you're the one who said

1508
01:12:46,360 --> 01:12:48,840
Speaker 1: we could work with these people. You're the one who said, hey,

1509
01:12:48,840 --> 01:12:50,559
Speaker 1: well why don't we You're the one who sent these

1510
01:12:50,640 --> 01:12:53,559
Speaker 1: ideaf troops to the West Bank to guard settlers rather

1511
01:12:53,560 --> 01:12:55,320
Speaker 1: than being there in the Gaza strip. You're the one

1512
01:12:55,320 --> 01:12:58,599
Speaker 1: who failed in terms of assessing this, even though your

1513
01:12:58,640 --> 01:13:01,240
Speaker 1: own people were warning that there was some sort of

1514
01:13:01,280 --> 01:13:03,120
Speaker 1: a plan about to be put into action. We now

1515
01:13:03,200 --> 01:13:05,080
Speaker 1: know they had the plans in advance, they just didn't

1516
01:13:05,080 --> 01:13:08,600
Speaker 1: take it seriously. So he has survived this far. So

1517
01:13:09,040 --> 01:13:12,080
Speaker 1: you know, at this point, you'd be probably fool to

1518
01:13:12,120 --> 01:13:14,760
Speaker 1: bet against him surviving a little bit further. And it's

1519
01:13:14,760 --> 01:13:16,559
Speaker 1: not that long till election day, and we all know

1520
01:13:16,600 --> 01:13:18,960
Speaker 1: who he wants to get into office.

1521
01:13:19,040 --> 01:13:19,920
Speaker 4: You know, with regard to the.

1522
01:13:19,840 --> 01:13:22,559
Speaker 1: Ceasfire piece, We're going to talk to Jeremy Skahill more

1523
01:13:22,560 --> 01:13:25,639
Speaker 1: about this. But you had Biden come out. He got out,

1524
01:13:25,680 --> 01:13:28,760
Speaker 1: asked to like shouted questions b be doing enough to

1525
01:13:28,920 --> 01:13:31,720
Speaker 1: secure a cease fire deal, and he said no, it's like,

1526
01:13:32,560 --> 01:13:36,639
Speaker 1: I mean, the only way a ceasfire deal is actually

1527
01:13:36,680 --> 01:13:40,719
Speaker 1: going to happen is if the US says this is happening,

1528
01:13:40,840 --> 01:13:42,720
Speaker 1: We're cutting off your weapons, like this is it.

1529
01:13:42,840 --> 01:13:43,880
Speaker 4: This is the end of the road.

1530
01:13:44,040 --> 01:13:47,120
Speaker 1: We're making it happen, We're enforcing it, period, end of story.

1531
01:13:47,720 --> 01:13:51,000
Speaker 1: There was this is a reporting from Jeremy there was

1532
01:13:51,080 --> 01:13:54,640
Speaker 1: actually you know, remember when Biden gave a big speech saying, hey,

1533
01:13:54,720 --> 01:13:56,880
Speaker 1: here's the deal that Israel's agreed to and now we're

1534
01:13:56,920 --> 01:13:59,519
Speaker 1: just waiting on Hamas to agree. Well, Hamas agreed to

1535
01:13:59,560 --> 01:14:03,920
Speaker 1: that deal, and then Phoebe undercuts it and puts in

1536
01:14:03,960 --> 01:14:06,800
Speaker 1: a bunch of provisions poison pills that he knows are

1537
01:14:06,840 --> 01:14:10,639
Speaker 1: put in there intentionally to guarantee that Hamas would never

1538
01:14:10,720 --> 01:14:14,400
Speaker 1: agree to that. So there should have been a deal

1539
01:14:14,439 --> 01:14:17,040
Speaker 1: back then Israel said we accept this deal, and Hamas

1540
01:14:17,040 --> 01:14:19,080
Speaker 1: said we accept this deal, and then Israel went back

1541
01:14:19,120 --> 01:14:20,840
Speaker 1: on their word and said, no, no, actually we need

1542
01:14:20,880 --> 01:14:23,800
Speaker 1: these ten other provisions to guarantee that, you know, that

1543
01:14:23,880 --> 01:14:26,080
Speaker 1: Hamas won't accede to the deal. And I mean that

1544
01:14:26,240 --> 01:14:30,599
Speaker 1: just makes it heart extra heartbreaking to see the level

1545
01:14:30,640 --> 01:14:34,560
Speaker 1: of death and destruction that has continued since July, including

1546
01:14:34,880 --> 01:14:39,200
Speaker 1: these hostages, including this Israeli American and also including the

1547
01:14:39,200 --> 01:14:42,479
Speaker 1: Palestinians who have been murdered between then and now, when

1548
01:14:42,600 --> 01:14:44,800
Speaker 1: there should have been a peace deal in hand, the

1549
01:14:44,840 --> 01:14:46,880
Speaker 1: Biden people are now saying like, oh, we're going to

1550
01:14:46,960 --> 01:14:49,040
Speaker 1: put a take it or leave a deal on the table.

1551
01:14:49,040 --> 01:14:50,680
Speaker 1: It's like, well, you know, Israel's going to leave it

1552
01:14:51,160 --> 01:14:55,000
Speaker 1: like that's entirely predictable at this point. So until you

1553
01:14:55,160 --> 01:14:58,719
Speaker 1: are willing to say no more arms, you are done,

1554
01:14:58,920 --> 01:15:02,679
Speaker 1: end of story. We're finished here. Until that happens, this

1555
01:15:02,960 --> 01:15:06,559
Speaker 1: horror is going to continue. Kamala Harris, we can put

1556
01:15:06,560 --> 01:15:09,360
Speaker 1: her response up on the screen, you know there. To

1557
01:15:09,439 --> 01:15:13,479
Speaker 1: your point, Sagar, about just the level of contrast between

1558
01:15:13,640 --> 01:15:17,240
Speaker 1: the commentary of figures like Vice President Kamala Harris and

1559
01:15:17,360 --> 01:15:20,440
Speaker 1: Joe Biden and the news media here versus the Israeli

1560
01:15:20,520 --> 01:15:25,240
Speaker 1: public opposition figures news media there are extraordinary. She used

1561
01:15:25,320 --> 01:15:29,240
Speaker 1: the same you know, basically framing as a net Yahoo would.

1562
01:15:29,320 --> 01:15:32,800
Speaker 1: She says Hamas is an evil terrorist organization. With these murders,

1563
01:15:32,840 --> 01:15:36,760
Speaker 1: Hamasas even wore American blood on its hands. She went

1564
01:15:36,840 --> 01:15:39,840
Speaker 1: on to say that the threat threat Hamas poses the

1565
01:15:39,840 --> 01:15:44,160
Speaker 1: people of Israel and American citizens in Israel must be eliminated. Again,

1566
01:15:44,240 --> 01:15:48,320
Speaker 1: that's Beebe's type language. And Hamas cannot control Gasa. You

1567
01:15:48,400 --> 01:15:51,400
Speaker 1: have so many American officials, including the Secretary of Defense,

1568
01:15:51,400 --> 01:15:52,920
Speaker 1: who says Hamas.

1569
01:15:52,360 --> 01:15:53,720
Speaker 4: Cannot be eliminated.

1570
01:15:54,040 --> 01:15:56,479
Speaker 1: So at this late date for her to still be

1571
01:15:56,560 --> 01:15:59,960
Speaker 1: buying into this fantasy that Hamasca quote unquote be eliminated

1572
01:16:00,520 --> 01:16:05,960
Speaker 1: is just foolish, unacceptable, unnecessary, all of those things. In fact,

1573
01:16:06,000 --> 01:16:09,559
Speaker 1: there were reports that Hamas has recruited thousands of more fighters.

1574
01:16:09,600 --> 01:16:13,960
Speaker 1: They're reconstituted in the north and are reasserting their capabilities.

1575
01:16:14,000 --> 01:16:17,960
Speaker 1: So what exactly are we doing here? In direct contrast

1576
01:16:18,040 --> 01:16:22,160
Speaker 1: to that type of tone from Kamala Harris, you had

1577
01:16:22,280 --> 01:16:25,840
Speaker 1: opposition leader Yayer Lapede in Israel. Can put this up

1578
01:16:25,880 --> 01:16:27,760
Speaker 1: on the screen. He's speaking in Hebrew. I'll just read

1579
01:16:27,800 --> 01:16:29,840
Speaker 1: you a little bit of what he says here. Says

1580
01:16:29,880 --> 01:16:33,400
Speaker 1: they were just alive. Netanyahu and his cabinet of death

1581
01:16:34,080 --> 01:16:36,840
Speaker 1: shows not to rescue the hostages. I call in the

1582
01:16:36,880 --> 01:16:40,519
Speaker 1: labor union, large businesses, and local authorities to shut down

1583
01:16:40,800 --> 01:16:43,800
Speaker 1: the economy. So that is more the tenor of the

1584
01:16:43,840 --> 01:16:48,479
Speaker 1: conversation that is happening there. And finally, let's put this

1585
01:16:48,600 --> 01:16:50,720
Speaker 1: up on the screen. This is Caitlin Collins says. A

1586
01:16:50,760 --> 01:16:54,439
Speaker 1: group representing the families of Israeli hostages is calling for

1587
01:16:54,439 --> 01:16:56,840
Speaker 1: Babe to address the nation, which he did, but he

1588
01:16:56,840 --> 01:17:01,240
Speaker 1: didn't do this part and take responsibility for abandoning the hostages.

1589
01:17:01,439 --> 01:17:04,040
Speaker 1: They say, the recovery of these bodies is a direct

1590
01:17:04,240 --> 01:17:08,599
Speaker 1: result of failing to sign a deal. They were all

1591
01:17:08,720 --> 01:17:11,519
Speaker 1: murdered in the last few days after surviving almost eleven

1592
01:17:11,520 --> 01:17:15,040
Speaker 1: months of abuse, torture, and starvation in Hamaska captivity. The

1593
01:17:15,080 --> 01:17:18,080
Speaker 1: delay in signing the deal has led to their deaths

1594
01:17:18,080 --> 01:17:22,600
Speaker 1: and those of many other hostages. Again mincing no words

1595
01:17:22,600 --> 01:17:27,160
Speaker 1: in where the hostage families are placing the blame directly

1596
01:17:27,200 --> 01:17:28,280
Speaker 1: at the feet of BB nine.

1597
01:17:28,320 --> 01:17:30,960
Speaker 2: Now who yeah again, you know, the tenor in the

1598
01:17:31,000 --> 01:17:33,960
Speaker 2: conversation very very different over there in terms of what

1599
01:17:34,040 --> 01:17:37,000
Speaker 2: the criticism and that look like, and from the hostages themselves,

1600
01:17:37,000 --> 01:17:39,200
Speaker 2: that's always what's been so annoying. You know, You'll have

1601
01:17:39,360 --> 01:17:42,080
Speaker 2: hostages literally rescued who are like, we almost died and

1602
01:17:42,120 --> 01:17:42,680
Speaker 2: were bombed, and.

1603
01:17:42,720 --> 01:17:43,840
Speaker 3: You need to do a ceasefire.

1604
01:17:44,160 --> 01:17:47,320
Speaker 2: And then if you say that in America, people are like, yeah,

1605
01:17:47,360 --> 01:17:51,120
Speaker 2: pro Hamas. It's like, words have meaning, you know, throughout

1606
01:17:51,160 --> 01:17:53,800
Speaker 2: all of this, and apparently they don't. They only have

1607
01:17:53,920 --> 01:17:58,240
Speaker 2: meaning in Israel. They have no meaning here in America.

1608
01:17:58,320 --> 01:18:00,599
Speaker 2: And I think there is a real reason for that

1609
01:18:00,640 --> 01:18:02,880
Speaker 2: in terms of the way that the conversation and all

1610
01:18:02,920 --> 01:18:05,559
Speaker 2: of that here is controlled. But in terms of where

1611
01:18:05,560 --> 01:18:08,080
Speaker 2: things go. Look, maybe the guy is right, But I

1612
01:18:08,160 --> 01:18:10,479
Speaker 2: just don't. I always bet on his political survival. He's

1613
01:18:10,479 --> 01:18:13,000
Speaker 2: an animal, you know, he's very, very talented. It takes

1614
01:18:13,200 --> 01:18:14,040
Speaker 2: and you know this.

1615
01:18:14,080 --> 01:18:16,760
Speaker 4: In a mucky villion way, yes, vivor the way.

1616
01:18:16,800 --> 01:18:18,360
Speaker 3: He's a literal survivor.

1617
01:18:18,439 --> 01:18:21,479
Speaker 2: He survived the Supreme Court thing, he survived October seventh,

1618
01:18:21,640 --> 01:18:25,080
Speaker 2: survived the inter war period. He's managed the relationship with

1619
01:18:25,120 --> 01:18:28,040
Speaker 2: the United States in terms of playing both political parties

1620
01:18:28,080 --> 01:18:31,200
Speaker 2: pretty effectively. I think APPEC is a major winner right

1621
01:18:31,200 --> 01:18:33,160
Speaker 2: now than at any time ever before.

1622
01:18:33,360 --> 01:18:34,840
Speaker 3: The ADL as well.

1623
01:18:34,960 --> 01:18:38,400
Speaker 2: All of their political machinery in Washington has been you know,

1624
01:18:38,479 --> 01:18:41,559
Speaker 2: exercised at the highest level and mostly has won almost

1625
01:18:41,560 --> 01:18:44,320
Speaker 2: every fight that they've engaged in. So I don't bet

1626
01:18:44,360 --> 01:18:46,280
Speaker 2: against him. I don't bet against him coming out of this.

1627
01:18:46,520 --> 01:18:49,320
Speaker 1: All right, let's go ahead and get to Jeremy Scahill

1628
01:18:49,400 --> 01:18:51,960
Speaker 1: of drop site News, who has a number of importance

1629
01:18:51,960 --> 01:18:52,800
Speaker 1: scoops to bring us.

1630
01:18:52,880 --> 01:18:53,559
Speaker 4: Let's go to it.

1631
01:18:56,400 --> 01:18:58,680
Speaker 1: Happy to be joined this morning by Jeremy ska Hill, who,

1632
01:18:58,720 --> 01:19:00,640
Speaker 1: of course, alongside our own right now Grim is co

1633
01:19:00,720 --> 01:19:01,880
Speaker 1: founder of drop site News.

1634
01:19:01,880 --> 01:19:04,679
Speaker 4: Great to see Jeremy, Good to you, good to be back.

1635
01:19:04,880 --> 01:19:08,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, so you have some bombshell reporting about

1636
01:19:08,320 --> 01:19:13,680
Speaker 1: these ceasefire negotiations and really pointing the finger at in

1637
01:19:13,720 --> 01:19:17,360
Speaker 1: a conclusive way at bb Netnaho for intentionally undermining a

1638
01:19:17,400 --> 01:19:19,840
Speaker 1: deal that he had already agreed to. It can put

1639
01:19:19,840 --> 01:19:22,200
Speaker 1: this up on the screen and you can elaborate here

1640
01:19:22,479 --> 01:19:28,880
Speaker 1: a bit more. But effectively, Hamas agreed to a three

1641
01:19:28,960 --> 01:19:32,360
Speaker 1: phase deal that actually back down on what was one

1642
01:19:32,400 --> 01:19:36,160
Speaker 1: of their key demands that there be a permanent cease fire.

1643
01:19:37,040 --> 01:19:40,519
Speaker 1: This was something that supposedly the Israelis had already agreed to,

1644
01:19:41,120 --> 01:19:44,880
Speaker 1: and yet after Hamas says okay, yes, we accept then

1645
01:19:45,320 --> 01:19:49,160
Speaker 1: Netanyahu specifically enabled, as you point out, by the US

1646
01:19:49,640 --> 01:19:53,760
Speaker 1: layers on a bunch of additional conditions, intentionally met to

1647
01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:56,880
Speaker 1: undercut the achievement of a deal. It talked to us

1648
01:19:56,880 --> 01:19:59,759
Speaker 1: about the documents that you were able to gain access

1649
01:19:59,760 --> 01:20:01,920
Speaker 1: to and put this in a broader context for us.

1650
01:20:03,280 --> 01:20:06,639
Speaker 9: The broad context is that for the past ten plus months,

1651
01:20:06,680 --> 01:20:09,559
Speaker 9: the narrative from the United States and Israel has been

1652
01:20:09,640 --> 01:20:14,400
Speaker 9: that Hamas has been blocking a ceasefire, and that has

1653
01:20:14,479 --> 01:20:17,600
Speaker 9: not been true throughout this entire time. Certainly, Hamas and

1654
01:20:17,760 --> 01:20:20,840
Speaker 9: Israel had very different perspectives on what they wanted in

1655
01:20:20,880 --> 01:20:23,760
Speaker 9: any document that established a framework for a ceasefire. But

1656
01:20:24,439 --> 01:20:28,320
Speaker 9: it's been propaganda from the beginning to state that somehow, unilaterally,

1657
01:20:28,360 --> 01:20:31,040
Speaker 9: Hamas was sabotaging it. But let's fast forward to the

1658
01:20:31,120 --> 01:20:35,080
Speaker 9: very current situation. You have Kamala Harris anointed as the

1659
01:20:35,120 --> 01:20:40,280
Speaker 9: Democratic nominee for president in Chicago earlier in August, and

1660
01:20:40,320 --> 01:20:44,360
Speaker 9: you had AOC and others praising her for working tirelessly

1661
01:20:44,400 --> 01:20:47,479
Speaker 9: for a ceasefire, saying the White House was working around

1662
01:20:47,520 --> 01:20:49,800
Speaker 9: the clock for a ceasefire. And what they were talking

1663
01:20:49,800 --> 01:20:53,560
Speaker 9: about is that President Joe Biden in May announced that

1664
01:20:54,760 --> 01:20:57,280
Speaker 9: he was going to present a framework for a ceasefire

1665
01:20:57,280 --> 01:21:01,200
Speaker 9: that had actually been presented by Israel, and he said,

1666
01:21:01,240 --> 01:21:03,320
Speaker 9: you know, now the onus is on Jumas to accept

1667
01:21:03,320 --> 01:21:07,360
Speaker 9: this deal. And what that framework essentially said was that

1668
01:21:07,400 --> 01:21:09,759
Speaker 9: there would be three phases, and in the initial first

1669
01:21:09,880 --> 01:21:13,600
Speaker 9: six week phase, there would be a large exchange of captives.

1670
01:21:13,960 --> 01:21:17,000
Speaker 9: Many of the civilians that are being held by Hamas

1671
01:21:17,080 --> 01:21:20,160
Speaker 9: inside of Gaza. There are also some that are classified

1672
01:21:20,200 --> 01:21:24,040
Speaker 9: as in a humanitarian category. One of those we understand

1673
01:21:24,200 --> 01:21:28,519
Speaker 9: was Hirsch Goldberg, poll In, the dual US Israeli national

1674
01:21:29,000 --> 01:21:33,240
Speaker 9: whose death in Gaza was announced on Sunday by Israel,

1675
01:21:34,000 --> 01:21:37,760
Speaker 9: and so you had this framework. Hamas then looks at it,

1676
01:21:38,000 --> 01:21:40,639
Speaker 9: they gave some notes on it. Then you know, within

1677
01:21:40,680 --> 01:21:43,080
Speaker 9: the next ten days, and they said that they wanted

1678
01:21:43,120 --> 01:21:45,280
Speaker 9: to be able to negotiate a permanent ceasefire in the

1679
01:21:45,320 --> 01:21:48,040
Speaker 9: first phase of the deal. Now, according to my sources

1680
01:21:48,040 --> 01:21:51,280
Speaker 9: in Hamas, they were told by the international medias mediators

1681
01:21:51,360 --> 01:21:54,920
Speaker 9: Kutar and Egypt, this was a deal breaker for Israel

1682
01:21:55,000 --> 01:21:58,519
Speaker 9: in the United States, and so Hamas deliberated on that

1683
01:21:58,760 --> 01:22:03,200
Speaker 9: The United Nations Security Council endorsed the so called Biden Framework,

1684
01:22:03,479 --> 01:22:07,760
Speaker 9: and by July second, Hamas had actually backed off of

1685
01:22:07,760 --> 01:22:10,040
Speaker 9: what it was one of their most important demands and

1686
01:22:10,120 --> 01:22:12,320
Speaker 9: made what they thought was a really big concession by

1687
01:22:12,360 --> 01:22:15,240
Speaker 9: taking that language out of what they were insisting on.

1688
01:22:15,600 --> 01:22:17,800
Speaker 9: They then go back to the mediators and the documents

1689
01:22:17,800 --> 01:22:22,360
Speaker 9: I have show that on July second, Hamas formally informed

1690
01:22:22,439 --> 01:22:25,600
Speaker 9: both Egypt and Kutar, the two main mediators dealing with

1691
01:22:25,640 --> 01:22:28,640
Speaker 9: the United States and Israel, that they would accept the

1692
01:22:28,760 --> 01:22:32,680
Speaker 9: terms of the framework based on an American amendment. And

1693
01:22:32,760 --> 01:22:35,759
Speaker 9: Hamas sources told me that the Americans acknowledged that Hamas

1694
01:22:35,840 --> 01:22:39,519
Speaker 9: had accepted that framework, and they went back to Israel,

1695
01:22:39,800 --> 01:22:43,719
Speaker 9: and then Netanyahu bombards the process with a whole slew

1696
01:22:43,840 --> 01:22:47,839
Speaker 9: of new conditions, including an indefinite presence of Israeli troops

1697
01:22:48,080 --> 01:22:53,639
Speaker 9: in the Philadelphi Corridor, which has been governed by agreements

1698
01:22:53,680 --> 01:22:56,080
Speaker 9: going back to nineteen seventy nine and two thousand and

1699
01:22:56,120 --> 01:23:00,559
Speaker 9: five with Egypt and Israel. Israeli forces are not supposed

1700
01:23:00,600 --> 01:23:03,759
Speaker 9: to be in the Philadelphi Corridor or controlling the Rafak crossing.

1701
01:23:04,040 --> 01:23:06,640
Speaker 9: And they also insisted that they would maintain troops in

1702
01:23:06,680 --> 01:23:10,400
Speaker 9: what's called the net Serim Corridor, which essentially splits Gaza

1703
01:23:10,439 --> 01:23:13,439
Speaker 9: in half. So Hamas said, no, no deal on this.

1704
01:23:13,560 --> 01:23:15,960
Speaker 9: We already agreed to something. And so what we've seen

1705
01:23:16,439 --> 01:23:20,160
Speaker 9: is Anthony Blinken running over to Tel Aviv and traveling

1706
01:23:20,200 --> 01:23:22,479
Speaker 9: around the Middle East. And now what's happening is they've

1707
01:23:22,479 --> 01:23:24,920
Speaker 9: tried to say to Hamas, yeah, we know that you

1708
01:23:25,080 --> 01:23:28,240
Speaker 9: agreed to this, but now you have to accept parts

1709
01:23:28,240 --> 01:23:30,680
Speaker 9: of these other demands that you've made very clear you

1710
01:23:30,720 --> 01:23:33,839
Speaker 9: will not accept, which is an indefinite Israeli troop presence

1711
01:23:33,840 --> 01:23:34,679
Speaker 9: inside of Gaza.

1712
01:23:34,880 --> 01:23:37,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Jeremy, can we put E three please up

1713
01:23:37,120 --> 01:23:40,320
Speaker 2: on the screen. This was very interesting in terms of

1714
01:23:40,600 --> 01:23:42,920
Speaker 2: some of the reporting that was coming out where they

1715
01:23:42,920 --> 01:23:45,679
Speaker 2: say that the heads of the security intelligence services urging

1716
01:23:45,760 --> 01:23:49,040
Speaker 2: Netanyahu for months to reach the deal. We warned him

1717
01:23:49,080 --> 01:23:51,720
Speaker 2: and the cabinet officials about this exac scenario, but they

1718
01:23:51,800 --> 01:23:54,519
Speaker 2: would not listen. So how does this comport with some

1719
01:23:54,560 --> 01:23:56,439
Speaker 2: of the other reporting that you've done on the subject.

1720
01:23:56,640 --> 01:23:59,080
Speaker 9: Well, I mean, what's really ironic is that you have

1721
01:23:59,200 --> 01:24:02,439
Speaker 9: Yoav Galan, the Minister of Defense of Israel. Now this

1722
01:24:02,479 --> 01:24:05,599
Speaker 9: is someone who made genocidal statements at the onset and

1723
01:24:05,640 --> 01:24:08,559
Speaker 9: said that essentially they were in a collectively punish the people,

1724
01:24:08,800 --> 01:24:12,639
Speaker 9: the Palestinians of Gaza by shutting off food, electricity, water,

1725
01:24:12,760 --> 01:24:17,000
Speaker 9: et cetera. He has emerged internally as net Nyahu's most

1726
01:24:17,040 --> 01:24:20,800
Speaker 9: formidable opponent from within the Israeli national security state. And

1727
01:24:20,880 --> 01:24:23,759
Speaker 9: we understand that just days ago there was a cabinet meeting.

1728
01:24:24,320 --> 01:24:27,040
Speaker 9: It's public that the cabinet meeting was called by net

1729
01:24:27,120 --> 01:24:31,040
Speaker 9: and Yahoo to get an endorsement for his pledge to

1730
01:24:31,120 --> 01:24:33,920
Speaker 9: stay in that Philadelphi corridor that I was referring to

1731
01:24:33,960 --> 01:24:37,400
Speaker 9: along the Egyptian border. And according to Israeli media reporting,

1732
01:24:37,680 --> 01:24:41,880
Speaker 9: Yoav Galant exploded at net Yahu during that meeting, said

1733
01:24:41,880 --> 01:24:44,200
Speaker 9: that he is doing this because he knows Hamas is

1734
01:24:44,240 --> 01:24:46,680
Speaker 9: not going to accept it. He warned net Yahoo that

1735
01:24:46,680 --> 01:24:49,479
Speaker 9: if any more hostages die, net Yahou would have their

1736
01:24:49,520 --> 01:24:52,800
Speaker 9: blood on his hands, and he identified net Yahu as

1737
01:24:52,800 --> 01:24:55,759
Speaker 9: the main obstacle to a ceasefire. And then just days later,

1738
01:24:56,360 --> 01:25:00,439
Speaker 9: this past Sunday, you had Israel announcing the deaths of

1739
01:25:00,560 --> 01:25:05,400
Speaker 9: six hostages and captives inside of Gaza, including this US

1740
01:25:05,439 --> 01:25:07,960
Speaker 9: American dual citizen, Heirsch Goldberg.

1741
01:25:08,000 --> 01:25:10,960
Speaker 1: Poll in Jeremy talk a little bit about the way

1742
01:25:11,000 --> 01:25:15,479
Speaker 1: that the US has enabled this behavior, because as you said,

1743
01:25:15,600 --> 01:25:18,000
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, you're Lapede and certainly you have Golant

1744
01:25:18,080 --> 01:25:23,000
Speaker 1: within the government have emerged as direct critics of Bbe's

1745
01:25:23,000 --> 01:25:26,400
Speaker 1: strategy here, which is clearly designed to undercut the negotiations

1746
01:25:26,439 --> 01:25:29,880
Speaker 1: in an attempt to keep himself in power at you know,

1747
01:25:29,960 --> 01:25:33,000
Speaker 1: obviously the expense of Palestinian lives, but more consequential in

1748
01:25:33,040 --> 01:25:35,320
Speaker 1: the eyes of Yu ofv Golan, at the expense.

1749
01:25:35,000 --> 01:25:36,599
Speaker 4: Of Israeli hostage lives.

1750
01:25:37,439 --> 01:25:42,559
Speaker 1: How has that behavior been endorsed and enabled by the

1751
01:25:42,720 --> 01:25:47,519
Speaker 1: US government, which has at every turn continued to lay

1752
01:25:47,520 --> 01:25:50,040
Speaker 1: all the blame at the feet of Hamas versus where

1753
01:25:50,080 --> 01:25:52,640
Speaker 1: at this point it very clearly, more accurately lies at

1754
01:25:52,640 --> 01:25:53,360
Speaker 1: the feet of Bebe.

1755
01:25:54,760 --> 01:25:58,320
Speaker 9: I mean, in the very simple, big picture. The direct

1756
01:25:58,360 --> 01:26:01,519
Speaker 9: answer to that is that in stead of enacting any

1757
01:26:01,560 --> 01:26:04,920
Speaker 9: meaningful consequences on net and Yahoo or Israel for their

1758
01:26:04,960 --> 01:26:09,320
Speaker 9: systematic war crimes in Gaza, the Biden administration has accelerated

1759
01:26:09,400 --> 01:26:13,759
Speaker 9: weapons transport to Israel. You know, August was the busiest

1760
01:26:13,880 --> 01:26:17,080
Speaker 9: month in a long time at the main airport that

1761
01:26:17,160 --> 01:26:21,080
Speaker 9: received in Israel that receives US weaponry, and the flight

1762
01:26:21,160 --> 01:26:25,799
Speaker 9: data that's been revealed publicly about this shows that Biden

1763
01:26:25,920 --> 01:26:28,439
Speaker 9: was shipping emergency weapons to Israel at a time when

1764
01:26:28,479 --> 01:26:30,720
Speaker 9: he was telling the world that he had come up

1765
01:26:30,720 --> 01:26:34,040
Speaker 9: with a formulation to end the war. You have Harris also,

1766
01:26:34,160 --> 01:26:37,200
Speaker 9: who was saying, you know, we need a ceasefire, we

1767
01:26:37,240 --> 01:26:39,760
Speaker 9: need it quickly. But behind the scenes, and you know,

1768
01:26:39,800 --> 01:26:41,639
Speaker 9: I haven't just spoken with Hamas, I've talked to other

1769
01:26:41,640 --> 01:26:44,519
Speaker 9: people involved with the mediation. What the US has been

1770
01:26:44,560 --> 01:26:48,599
Speaker 9: doing is saying, yes, President Biden said this is the deal,

1771
01:26:48,680 --> 01:26:51,439
Speaker 9: and Homas just needs to accept it. But now Israel

1772
01:26:51,520 --> 01:26:53,920
Speaker 9: is doing something different, and so we want you to

1773
01:26:53,960 --> 01:26:57,320
Speaker 9: accept all of these other things that we had already

1774
01:26:57,360 --> 01:26:59,880
Speaker 9: resolved through months of negotiation that led up to the

1775
01:27:00,080 --> 01:27:03,240
Speaker 9: so called Biden Framework. So you see Kamala Harris and

1776
01:27:03,320 --> 01:27:06,360
Speaker 9: Joe Biden at a very top level, continuing to endorse

1777
01:27:06,520 --> 01:27:10,479
Speaker 9: Israel even as it commits a horrifying genocide, even as

1778
01:27:10,520 --> 01:27:13,439
Speaker 9: it invades the West Bank and continues to sort of

1779
01:27:13,520 --> 01:27:16,320
Speaker 9: gaza as size the West Bank. And then on a

1780
01:27:16,360 --> 01:27:19,760
Speaker 9: technical level, you have Anthony Blinkin, Brett McGirk, other US

1781
01:27:19,800 --> 01:27:24,240
Speaker 9: officials backing away from what they had said was a

1782
01:27:24,280 --> 01:27:27,439
Speaker 9: deal that Hamas could sign. Hamas agreed to it, and

1783
01:27:27,479 --> 01:27:29,559
Speaker 9: then they changed the terms of it. So at every

1784
01:27:29,600 --> 01:27:31,880
Speaker 9: move in the big picture and on a technical level,

1785
01:27:32,680 --> 01:27:34,920
Speaker 9: Israel is in control of the agenda. And it's in

1786
01:27:34,960 --> 01:27:37,400
Speaker 9: control of the agenda because it's the US is allowing

1787
01:27:37,439 --> 01:27:38,599
Speaker 9: it to be jeremy.

1788
01:27:39,160 --> 01:27:41,840
Speaker 1: Just for people who would say, okay, well, why doesn't

1789
01:27:41,840 --> 01:27:44,479
Speaker 1: Hamas just accept these new conditions, Why don't they just

1790
01:27:44,520 --> 01:27:47,439
Speaker 1: allow for this, you know, Israeli true presence in these

1791
01:27:47,479 --> 01:27:51,000
Speaker 1: two areas, what's the big deal? What would your response

1792
01:27:51,040 --> 01:27:52,160
Speaker 1: to those people be?

1793
01:27:53,640 --> 01:27:56,800
Speaker 9: To accept that would be to accept that international law

1794
01:27:56,880 --> 01:28:01,360
Speaker 9: doesn't exist, would be to accept that the genuine aspirations

1795
01:28:01,400 --> 01:28:05,280
Speaker 9: for self determination, independence and freedom on the part of

1796
01:28:05,280 --> 01:28:09,640
Speaker 9: the Palestinian people are illegitimate. Look the Palestinians. You can

1797
01:28:09,680 --> 01:28:12,640
Speaker 9: say what you want about Hamas's tactics. There are international

1798
01:28:12,720 --> 01:28:17,200
Speaker 9: criminal court indictments waiting for leadership members that have not

1799
01:28:17,240 --> 01:28:20,840
Speaker 9: been killed of Hamas for what prosecutors believe were war

1800
01:28:20,880 --> 01:28:24,759
Speaker 9: crimes that they committed on October seventh. But to imply

1801
01:28:25,000 --> 01:28:31,320
Speaker 9: that because October seventh happened, that somehow international law doesn't matter,

1802
01:28:31,520 --> 01:28:36,000
Speaker 9: that somehow it means that Palestinians have no right to independence,

1803
01:28:36,080 --> 01:28:39,600
Speaker 9: or no right to self determination, or more specifically, no

1804
01:28:39,720 --> 01:28:42,840
Speaker 9: right to armed resistance against occupation would mean that the

1805
01:28:43,560 --> 01:28:46,479
Speaker 9: so called rules based order that Biden and others embrace

1806
01:28:46,560 --> 01:28:50,200
Speaker 9: all the time doesn't actually exist. So there is a

1807
01:28:51,200 --> 01:28:54,120
Speaker 9: process that can be negotiated, There are political solutions that

1808
01:28:54,160 --> 01:28:57,719
Speaker 9: can be negotiated. But Israel to come back into Gaza.

1809
01:28:57,800 --> 01:28:59,519
Speaker 9: I think the belief on the part of Hamas and

1810
01:28:59,560 --> 01:29:03,040
Speaker 9: Mosttinians is if they're allowed to do that, that they

1811
01:29:03,080 --> 01:29:05,479
Speaker 9: will never leave. And when you see net and Yahu

1812
01:29:05,640 --> 01:29:07,679
Speaker 9: holding up maps as he did just in the last

1813
01:29:07,680 --> 01:29:10,559
Speaker 9: twenty four hours, he shows that that the West Bank

1814
01:29:10,600 --> 01:29:13,360
Speaker 9: doesn't exist at the same time that he's talking about

1815
01:29:13,439 --> 01:29:16,800
Speaker 9: keeping troops inside of Gaza. So you know, everyone wants

1816
01:29:16,840 --> 01:29:18,800
Speaker 9: to just say, well, what about October seventh? What about

1817
01:29:18,800 --> 01:29:22,080
Speaker 9: October seventh? But what about October sixth, what about nineteen

1818
01:29:22,120 --> 01:29:24,599
Speaker 9: forty eight, what about nineteen sixty seven. I mean, these

1819
01:29:24,640 --> 01:29:28,040
Speaker 9: are legitimate questions. They're not just rhetorical devices. There's real

1820
01:29:28,120 --> 01:29:31,400
Speaker 9: law that governs this. And for Hamas to accept an

1821
01:29:31,400 --> 01:29:34,960
Speaker 9: indefinite Israeli occupation in Gaza would be to say that

1822
01:29:34,960 --> 01:29:36,439
Speaker 9: the Palestinian cause is dead.

1823
01:29:36,720 --> 01:29:39,040
Speaker 2: So Jeremy, since you actually have sources in Amas and

1824
01:29:39,040 --> 01:29:41,439
Speaker 2: you're one of the only journalists that genuinely tries to

1825
01:29:41,479 --> 01:29:43,720
Speaker 2: actually speak with them and then report the perspective, it's

1826
01:29:43,720 --> 01:29:46,439
Speaker 2: not an endorsement, it's literally just talking with them. What

1827
01:29:46,479 --> 01:29:49,000
Speaker 2: would you say then, that the current state of Hamas

1828
01:29:49,080 --> 01:29:53,320
Speaker 2: leadership and they're thinking towards a ceasefire deal is now

1829
01:29:53,479 --> 01:29:56,799
Speaker 2: that Neta nah Who's government and others have put in

1830
01:29:57,080 --> 01:30:01,000
Speaker 2: various different provisions which make the possibility less likely. Do

1831
01:30:01,080 --> 01:30:04,040
Speaker 2: they just fully endorse armed resistance and now the killing

1832
01:30:04,080 --> 01:30:06,679
Speaker 2: of these hostages? Is that the direction things are likely?

1833
01:30:06,720 --> 01:30:08,599
Speaker 2: Where do you think their mindset is right now.

1834
01:30:09,760 --> 01:30:14,080
Speaker 9: Look, let's let's remember that last month Netanyahu and his

1835
01:30:14,200 --> 01:30:18,439
Speaker 9: forces assassinated Ismail Khania, who was not the military leader

1836
01:30:18,479 --> 01:30:21,400
Speaker 9: of Hamas but was the top political officer of Hamas

1837
01:30:21,680 --> 01:30:24,920
Speaker 9: and was the lead negotiator. He was then replaced in

1838
01:30:24,960 --> 01:30:28,280
Speaker 9: a consolidation of power on the ground in Gaza and

1839
01:30:28,320 --> 01:30:32,000
Speaker 9: externally by Yahya Sinhwar, who has been the Gaza commander

1840
01:30:32,040 --> 01:30:35,160
Speaker 9: of Hamas, leader of Hamas and is believed widely to

1841
01:30:35,200 --> 01:30:37,960
Speaker 9: be one of the top architects of the October seventh attacks,

1842
01:30:38,400 --> 01:30:43,559
Speaker 9: when Israel in June attacked Nusirat, the Nusirat refugee camp

1843
01:30:43,640 --> 01:30:46,559
Speaker 9: to extract some of its hostages, and killed hundreds of

1844
01:30:46,560 --> 01:30:51,360
Speaker 9: people wounded many hundreds others. Abu Obeeda, the spokesperson for

1845
01:30:51,400 --> 01:30:54,400
Speaker 9: the Casam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas that has

1846
01:30:54,400 --> 01:30:58,200
Speaker 9: been leading the resistance against the Israeli forces in Gaza,

1847
01:30:58,600 --> 01:31:01,240
Speaker 9: said that there were going to be new rules rules

1848
01:31:01,600 --> 01:31:06,120
Speaker 9: given to the Palestinian fighters who were guarding Israeli hostages.

1849
01:31:06,160 --> 01:31:08,839
Speaker 9: They didn't specify what those rules were, but it appears

1850
01:31:09,160 --> 01:31:12,559
Speaker 9: that it may have included to kill hostages if Israeli

1851
01:31:12,560 --> 01:31:16,240
Speaker 9: forces start attacking sites where hostages are being held, and

1852
01:31:16,439 --> 01:31:19,880
Speaker 9: just last night, Abu Obeda released a series of written

1853
01:31:19,920 --> 01:31:24,320
Speaker 9: statements on social media channels about the six hostages and

1854
01:31:24,360 --> 01:31:26,439
Speaker 9: saying that he wanted to remind the world that they

1855
01:31:26,479 --> 01:31:30,360
Speaker 9: had warned Israel that if they continued to try to

1856
01:31:30,439 --> 01:31:33,800
Speaker 9: release the hostages through military means, that the choice they

1857
01:31:33,800 --> 01:31:36,560
Speaker 9: were making was for them coming home alive or in coffins.

1858
01:31:37,080 --> 01:31:41,640
Speaker 9: It was widely interpreted as Abu Obeda taking responsibility for

1859
01:31:41,680 --> 01:31:44,120
Speaker 9: at least some of the deaths of the hostages. At

1860
01:31:44,160 --> 01:31:47,840
Speaker 9: the same time, though Hamas' political officials had said just

1861
01:31:47,960 --> 01:31:51,360
Speaker 9: hours before that statement was issued by the spokesperson of

1862
01:31:51,360 --> 01:31:54,320
Speaker 9: the Casam Brigades that they laid blame for the deaths

1863
01:31:54,320 --> 01:31:57,640
Speaker 9: of the hostages on Israel and had implied that some

1864
01:31:57,720 --> 01:32:01,559
Speaker 9: of them may have been killed in airstrikee or were

1865
01:32:01,560 --> 01:32:05,760
Speaker 9: shot by Israeli forces. So, you know, what I'm sensing

1866
01:32:06,000 --> 01:32:09,360
Speaker 9: is that there appears to be a disconnect between some

1867
01:32:09,400 --> 01:32:12,240
Speaker 9: of the Hamas officials who are operating in Doha or

1868
01:32:12,320 --> 01:32:15,240
Speaker 9: Lebanon or elsewhere and what's happening on the ground. It

1869
01:32:15,280 --> 01:32:18,479
Speaker 9: could also be that there are there's a compartmentalization of

1870
01:32:18,520 --> 01:32:22,200
Speaker 9: the military operations, and so the Hamas political leaders may

1871
01:32:22,240 --> 01:32:26,080
Speaker 9: not even be aware of everything that commanders of the

1872
01:32:26,080 --> 01:32:29,040
Speaker 9: Cassam Brigades on the ground are doing. But one twist

1873
01:32:29,120 --> 01:32:30,519
Speaker 9: to this story that I think it's a little in

1874
01:32:30,560 --> 01:32:33,520
Speaker 9: the weeds, but I think it's worth mentioning the American

1875
01:32:33,760 --> 01:32:38,240
Speaker 9: Israeli citizen whose death was announced on Sunday, whose parents

1876
01:32:38,240 --> 01:32:42,760
Speaker 9: spoke at the Democratic National Convention on May thirteenth. The

1877
01:32:42,840 --> 01:32:46,519
Speaker 9: casambragades had announced that they had lost contact with that

1878
01:32:46,960 --> 01:32:51,320
Speaker 9: American Israeli citizen and the Palestinians that regarding him, as

1879
01:32:51,360 --> 01:32:54,880
Speaker 9: well as four other Israeli captives that were being held.

1880
01:32:55,560 --> 01:32:59,280
Speaker 9: On Sunday morning, a top Hamas officials said that they

1881
01:32:59,280 --> 01:33:03,160
Speaker 9: had not heard from the guards or that hostage, the

1882
01:33:03,200 --> 01:33:07,519
Speaker 9: American Israeli citizen since that time back in May when

1883
01:33:07,560 --> 01:33:10,439
Speaker 9: they lost contact with him, and that they learned about

1884
01:33:10,439 --> 01:33:15,000
Speaker 9: his death from the Israeli announcement. So there had been

1885
01:33:15,040 --> 01:33:18,240
Speaker 9: speculation that he may have been killed in that Nusirat

1886
01:33:18,360 --> 01:33:24,519
Speaker 9: attack where some Israeli hostages were taken by Israel alive

1887
01:33:24,600 --> 01:33:27,880
Speaker 9: and brought out of Gaza in a rescue operation, as

1888
01:33:27,920 --> 01:33:32,760
Speaker 9: Israel described it, So we don't really know what exactly happened. There,

1889
01:33:32,800 --> 01:33:36,679
Speaker 9: and there have been contradictory statements being made by Hamas,

1890
01:33:36,720 --> 01:33:38,599
Speaker 9: But just to directly answer the question, if you talk

1891
01:33:38,680 --> 01:33:41,920
Speaker 9: to political officials, their position has been they are ready

1892
01:33:42,040 --> 01:33:45,200
Speaker 9: to go back to July second and discuss in more

1893
01:33:45,280 --> 01:33:48,000
Speaker 9: detail the terms of the framework that they accepted, which

1894
01:33:48,000 --> 01:33:50,760
Speaker 9: they said was also endorsed by the United States and

1895
01:33:50,800 --> 01:33:55,320
Speaker 9: originated from President Biden himself. That's what they're saying. Hamas's

1896
01:33:55,479 --> 01:33:58,759
Speaker 9: military wing seems to indicate that they are now doubling

1897
01:33:58,800 --> 01:34:01,360
Speaker 9: down on the notion that if Israel continues to try

1898
01:34:01,360 --> 01:34:04,720
Speaker 9: to quote unquote rescue hostages through military means, that those

1899
01:34:04,720 --> 01:34:06,320
Speaker 9: hostages are going to go back to Israel.

1900
01:34:06,320 --> 01:34:10,639
Speaker 1: In a coffin, the US officials are saying that they're

1901
01:34:10,640 --> 01:34:12,479
Speaker 1: going to put some sort of a quote unquote take

1902
01:34:12,520 --> 01:34:16,160
Speaker 1: it or leave it deal on the table, whatever that means,

1903
01:34:16,200 --> 01:34:19,559
Speaker 1: and the absence of any willingness to use actual US

1904
01:34:19,720 --> 01:34:22,000
Speaker 1: leverage and say take it or leave it, meaning we're

1905
01:34:22,000 --> 01:34:24,599
Speaker 1: going to actually enforce this, We're going to guarantee something

1906
01:34:24,600 --> 01:34:28,760
Speaker 1: gets done here. Do you have any hopes or optimism

1907
01:34:29,080 --> 01:34:32,160
Speaker 1: given the level of backlash in Israel and the huge

1908
01:34:32,200 --> 01:34:34,080
Speaker 1: protests we're seeing on the ground, do you have any

1909
01:34:34,120 --> 01:34:38,160
Speaker 1: expectation that this round of negotiations could end in a

1910
01:34:38,200 --> 01:34:39,160
Speaker 1: different outcome.

1911
01:34:40,640 --> 01:34:42,559
Speaker 9: Based on what net and Yah Who has been saying

1912
01:34:42,640 --> 01:34:46,679
Speaker 9: the past twenty four hours, it seems very very slim.

1913
01:34:47,240 --> 01:34:50,240
Speaker 9: I think there is a possibility that the Egyptian and

1914
01:34:50,320 --> 01:34:54,120
Speaker 9: Katari mediators might be able to thread the needle between

1915
01:34:54,120 --> 01:34:56,880
Speaker 9: the United States and TAMAS. And really, I mean it's

1916
01:34:57,520 --> 01:34:59,799
Speaker 9: one thing that was described to me by people involved

1917
01:34:59,840 --> 01:35:03,400
Speaker 9: with the negotiations is that the Israeli negotiating teams at

1918
01:35:03,400 --> 01:35:07,240
Speaker 9: times seem to be open to conditions that could actually

1919
01:35:08,080 --> 01:35:10,880
Speaker 9: represent a breakthrough quickly, and then they go back and

1920
01:35:10,960 --> 01:35:13,560
Speaker 9: Net Yah who says no way. And so part of

1921
01:35:13,560 --> 01:35:15,360
Speaker 9: the sense that I'm getting from sources is that the

1922
01:35:15,400 --> 01:35:18,599
Speaker 9: Israeli negotiators aren't even fully empowered by Net and Yahoo

1923
01:35:19,360 --> 01:35:23,080
Speaker 9: to make agreements. And again, remember Hamas is not directly

1924
01:35:23,120 --> 01:35:27,840
Speaker 9: participating in these negotiations. They are doing it through international mediators.

1925
01:35:28,320 --> 01:35:31,040
Speaker 9: I think the real sticking point. I had some indication

1926
01:35:31,120 --> 01:35:33,960
Speaker 9: that the net Serene corridor issue may be one that

1927
01:35:34,080 --> 01:35:36,800
Speaker 9: Israel is going to step away from, but the Philadelphi

1928
01:35:36,880 --> 01:35:39,800
Speaker 9: corridor thing seems to be net Yahu's line in the

1929
01:35:39,840 --> 01:35:42,599
Speaker 9: sand Hamas tells me, they're not going to accept it.

1930
01:35:43,240 --> 01:35:45,720
Speaker 9: But it involves Egypt as well, So let's see what

1931
01:35:45,760 --> 01:35:49,280
Speaker 9: the Egyptians say. I think everyone in on the ground

1932
01:35:49,280 --> 01:35:53,120
Speaker 9: in Gaza, regardless of their political perspective, wants this to end.

1933
01:35:53,720 --> 01:35:54,920
Speaker 3: This is a genocide.

1934
01:35:54,960 --> 01:35:57,880
Speaker 9: There was a polio threat that now hopefully is going

1935
01:35:57,920 --> 01:36:00,519
Speaker 9: to be addressed through this vaccination program. But to talk

1936
01:36:00,520 --> 01:36:03,080
Speaker 9: about a ceasefire in Gaza at a time when Janine

1937
01:36:03,120 --> 01:36:06,400
Speaker 9: is burning, when the West Bank is burning, when Israel

1938
01:36:06,479 --> 01:36:10,439
Speaker 9: is going in and just gratuitously destroying paved roads and

1939
01:36:10,479 --> 01:36:15,679
Speaker 9: civilian infrastructure, and come in concocting theories about Iran establishing

1940
01:36:15,760 --> 01:36:18,719
Speaker 9: a base in the West Bank. You know, a territory

1941
01:36:18,800 --> 01:36:21,879
Speaker 9: Iran doesn't share any border with. It's surrounded by Israel

1942
01:36:21,920 --> 01:36:26,280
Speaker 9: and Jordan, and Jordan recently defended militarily Israel when Iran

1943
01:36:26,360 --> 01:36:28,800
Speaker 9: launched missiles at it. So you know, we're in the

1944
01:36:29,280 --> 01:36:33,120
Speaker 9: realm of Alex jones lunacy here with net Yahu's theories

1945
01:36:33,200 --> 01:36:36,479
Speaker 9: about Iran while Gaza and the West Bank are burning.

1946
01:36:36,520 --> 01:36:40,120
Speaker 9: So it's difficult to imagine. I think what's most likely

1947
01:36:40,479 --> 01:36:43,960
Speaker 9: is you get something temporary that looks like the November

1948
01:36:43,960 --> 01:36:46,920
Speaker 9: truce and Biden and Harris kind of claim some form

1949
01:36:46,960 --> 01:36:50,000
Speaker 9: of victory, and then net Yahoo resumes the torching of

1950
01:36:50,000 --> 01:36:52,599
Speaker 9: Gaza again that, unfortunately, I think is probably the most

1951
01:36:52,640 --> 01:36:53,280
Speaker 9: likely outcome.

1952
01:36:53,439 --> 01:36:55,120
Speaker 1: The last thing I wanted to ask you about, Jeremy,

1953
01:36:55,120 --> 01:36:57,280
Speaker 1: actually is that invasion the West Bank. Guys, we can

1954
01:36:57,280 --> 01:36:59,120
Speaker 1: put E four up on the screen. This is some

1955
01:36:59,160 --> 01:37:02,640
Speaker 1: of the images of you know, civilian roads being destroyed

1956
01:37:02,680 --> 01:37:07,720
Speaker 1: in this massive arm force entering the West Bank, and

1957
01:37:07,760 --> 01:37:10,240
Speaker 1: you can continue to play this while I asked the question,

1958
01:37:10,280 --> 01:37:14,280
Speaker 1: there's the demolition of civilian roads for what reason? To

1959
01:37:14,320 --> 01:37:19,280
Speaker 1: what end other than just pure destruction annihilation? Hard to say,

1960
01:37:20,520 --> 01:37:25,480
Speaker 1: what do you make of this invasion, of this escalation?

1961
01:37:26,240 --> 01:37:28,920
Speaker 1: You know, what do you believe that the ultimate goal here?

1962
01:37:29,000 --> 01:37:30,040
Speaker 1: Jeremy really is.

1963
01:37:31,360 --> 01:37:33,160
Speaker 9: Well on this one, I think you have to take

1964
01:37:33,240 --> 01:37:36,799
Speaker 9: Netanyahu at his word. I mean, he's he's talked about

1965
01:37:36,840 --> 01:37:41,920
Speaker 9: a final solution for the issues you know that Israel

1966
01:37:42,000 --> 01:37:44,960
Speaker 9: has with the Palestinians, and you know, I think his

1967
01:37:45,000 --> 01:37:47,840
Speaker 9: agenda for a long time has been to erase any

1968
01:37:47,880 --> 01:37:52,000
Speaker 9: notion of Palestine from the map. They are now pressuring

1969
01:37:52,040 --> 01:37:53,960
Speaker 9: the United States to try to build some sort of

1970
01:37:54,160 --> 01:37:56,640
Speaker 9: a fence or a structure along the Jordanian border to

1971
01:37:56,680 --> 01:37:59,920
Speaker 9: further entrap the Palestinians of the West Bank and make

1972
01:38:00,120 --> 01:38:03,639
Speaker 9: so that israel Is in even greater control of their lives,

1973
01:38:03,640 --> 01:38:05,559
Speaker 9: to go from like ninety five percent now to one

1974
01:38:05,640 --> 01:38:08,919
Speaker 9: hundred percent. And I think that really what we're witnessing

1975
01:38:09,000 --> 01:38:12,439
Speaker 9: is that Netanyahu probably calculates this is his last shot

1976
01:38:12,479 --> 01:38:14,800
Speaker 9: at it, and that he wants to go down in

1977
01:38:14,880 --> 01:38:17,840
Speaker 9: history as the man that destroyed Palestine and the Palestinians

1978
01:38:17,840 --> 01:38:20,960
Speaker 9: with it. I really think we're looking at a genocidal agenda.

1979
01:38:21,920 --> 01:38:24,240
Speaker 1: Jeremy, thank you so much for spending some time with

1980
01:38:24,320 --> 01:38:27,200
Speaker 1: us this morning and explaining your reporting and helping provide

1981
01:38:27,280 --> 01:38:29,960
Speaker 1: context for what's happening. Please let people know where they

1982
01:38:29,960 --> 01:38:31,880
Speaker 1: can find drop site News and how they can support

1983
01:38:31,880 --> 01:38:33,880
Speaker 1: the worth it you and Ryan and your team are doing.

1984
01:38:35,360 --> 01:38:37,519
Speaker 9: Yeah, thanks for that, Crystal. Drop site news dot com.

1985
01:38:37,520 --> 01:38:40,760
Speaker 9: We're a nonprofit. You can donate to us, You can

1986
01:38:40,840 --> 01:38:44,120
Speaker 9: subscribe and pay to have a subscription, but nothing's behind

1987
01:38:44,120 --> 01:38:45,880
Speaker 9: a paywall. The most important thing you can do is

1988
01:38:45,920 --> 01:38:48,000
Speaker 9: hit the subscribe button and let everybody you know know

1989
01:38:48,080 --> 01:38:50,960
Speaker 9: that dropsiteews dot com is available to the public and

1990
01:38:50,960 --> 01:38:53,360
Speaker 9: we're trying to do hard hitting journalism and take big

1991
01:38:53,479 --> 01:38:54,639
Speaker 9: swings of powerful people.

1992
01:38:54,720 --> 01:38:57,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, we already see that, even though it's early days. Jeremy,

1993
01:38:57,560 --> 01:38:58,920
Speaker 1: thank you so much. Always great to see you.

1994
01:38:58,960 --> 01:39:01,479
Speaker 9: Thanks Jeremy, Thank you guys so much for being great

1995
01:39:01,560 --> 01:39:04,000
Speaker 9: voices for justice and truth and being willing to debate.

1996
01:39:04,720 --> 01:39:06,479
Speaker 4: I'm doing our best over here. Thank you.

1997
01:39:06,960 --> 01:39:09,479
Speaker 2: Thanks for watching everybody, We appreciate it. Great counterpoint show

1998
01:39:09,960 --> 01:39:22,080
Speaker 2: for everybody tomorrow and we will see you all on Thursday.