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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into the Tuesday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice podcast. Money is Matt Paront.

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Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at sports Stuck Matt

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Speaker 1: here every morning on Bettingpros dot Com, being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by bet MGM. All right, so last night was

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Speaker 1: a disaster. At the time of taping, I'm oh and five.

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Speaker 1: I am headed towards Owen six because the over and

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers game. I don't know if we're gonna get there,

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Speaker 1: but I gotta tape it anyway. So I'm just gonna

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Speaker 1: go ahead and take a little bit of a breather today.

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Speaker 1: You guys understand this. Look, I'm pretty transparent, and when

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Speaker 1: I get my teeth kicked in, I sometimes need to

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Speaker 1: regroup a little bit. So I was planning on doing

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Speaker 1: all the picks for the NFL Draft on Wednesday's podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to give you a couple of them. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna give you four of them today and then i'll

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Speaker 1: give you a couple other ones coming up tomorrow. But

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Speaker 1: we're going to take a breather. I will have some

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Speaker 1: NBA player props, maybe a Major League Baseball player prop.

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Speaker 1: I will have a couple of things going today, but

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Speaker 1: for the most part, I'm gonna pause, take a breath,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna step back. I'm gonna let myself kind of

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Speaker 1: regroup a little bit because we can. I mean, if

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Speaker 1: I go zero in six, that will be down two

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Speaker 1: and a half units, and that pretty much destroys the month.

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Speaker 1: So that's what can happen in one month. In our

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Speaker 1: one day, one bad night, you can literally annihilate the

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Speaker 1: entire month and put you as from a winner to

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Speaker 1: a loser. So just a horrible night and my bad,

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Speaker 1: awful picks. I apologize, just to kind of reset. Both

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Speaker 1: player props were wrong. We missed one of them by

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Speaker 1: a half a point. But that's the way we went

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Speaker 1: last night. Nicks on the Discord channel, the Discord bet

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Speaker 1: now goes to four and three overall. Sons beat the Knicks. There,

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Speaker 1: I had Denver mad Memphis covering against Denver. That did

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Speaker 1: not happen. Memphis got killed as plus four and a

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Speaker 1: half dogs on the Flames lost two to one to

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Speaker 1: the Montreal can End. So one of the benefits that

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Speaker 1: we have here as gamblers is that we don't have

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Speaker 1: to bet everything every game that goes up we don't

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Speaker 1: have to play, well, technically, I have to bet, but

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Speaker 1: I can do things on Thursday here on Tuesday, because

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Speaker 1: one of the things that happens here in Vegas is

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Speaker 1: that the betting on the draft closes Wednesday evening. Cannot

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Speaker 1: bet on Thursday here in Vegas for the NFL Draft,

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Speaker 1: So Tuesday and when they're both really big bet days.

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Speaker 1: And even though I don't know exactly what's going on

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Speaker 1: for FanDuel and some of the others, but I would

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Speaker 1: assume they're gonna shut down at some point on Thursday

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Speaker 1: before the draft. I don't think maybe they'll have their

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Speaker 1: picks up still on Thursday morning, but I don't know.

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Speaker 1: So my advice is get your picks in now. So

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you four and I'm gonna tell you

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Speaker 1: what we're gonna be doing here for the NFL Draft

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Speaker 1: on Thursday. During the NFL Draft, right, so here is

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Speaker 1: what we're gonna do. On the Discord Channel, they have

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Speaker 1: a thing called Stages. It's kind of like Twitter spaces

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Speaker 1: and clubhouse where you can go and actually have a

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Speaker 1: conversation with people who are the moderators of the said stage.

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Speaker 1: I myself, Matt Peroultz and Dan Harris will both be

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Speaker 1: Dan's gonna be doing some other stuff during the draft,

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Speaker 1: but I'll be moderating what will be a very fun experiment.

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Speaker 1: I've done this before with Live at Bars. I've done

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Speaker 1: this before, so I'm gonna attempt to do this actually

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Speaker 1: during the draft. I'm gonna select somebody at random to

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Speaker 1: make a pick for whatever team is on the clock,

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Speaker 1: whatever trade goes down, whatever it might be. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: select somebody who's hanging out listening to us talk about

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Speaker 1: the draft. I'm gonna say, hey, John, come on up

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Speaker 1: on stage and make the pick before the pick goes down. Now,

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Speaker 1: I know sometimes media members tweet out the picks ahead

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Speaker 1: of time, so if that starts to happen, I may

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Speaker 1: have to have you guys go actually one pick ahead

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Speaker 1: or something to combat that. But the idea is you

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Speaker 1: come up on stage, you go to the We'll first

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Speaker 1: go to the Discord channel. Then you're gonna see a

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Speaker 1: little microphone on the top of the list that shows

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Speaker 1: you all the different channels for Discord, and it'll say

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Speaker 1: something like NFL Draft or whatever, and you can give

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Speaker 1: me a come on in and hang out with us

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Speaker 1: during the NFL Draft. So this is great if you

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Speaker 1: have the Discord app if you're on your phone, so

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Speaker 1: you can second screen it. So you got the first screen,

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Speaker 1: you're watching the draft. On the second screen, you're watching

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Speaker 1: what we're doing. So we're gonna go at four forty

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Speaker 1: five Pacific time, seven forty five Eastern. We're going to

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Speaker 1: start this and the first two picks, I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to allow you guys to win anything in the first

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Speaker 1: two picks, but starting on pick number three, and we'll

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Speaker 1: go for fifteen picks, so we'll go basically halfway through

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Speaker 1: the first round. So if like for seventeen picks, will

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Speaker 1: go through half of the first round, and that's enough

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Speaker 1: because I can't go any deeper than that because I

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Speaker 1: can't hang out picks in the twenties or just too

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Speaker 1: much for me. So we're gonna do that from picks

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Speaker 1: one to seventeen. But if I call on you say, hey,

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Speaker 1: you know pick seven the Detroit Lions, John, what's the

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Speaker 1: pick going to be, so you can come on up,

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Speaker 1: you make the pick. If the pick is right, you

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Speaker 1: will win a Daily Juice T shirt. Okay, if you

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Speaker 1: pull off a trade or something. I don't know I

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Speaker 1: may give you. I mean, we may find some other benefit.

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Speaker 1: But I may make it a T shirt, I may

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Speaker 1: make it a hat, I may make it a sweatshirt.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll give you daily juice swag. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Dan Harris and I are going to finalize the giveaways

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Speaker 1: coming up later on today. But that's going to start

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Speaker 1: at four to forty five Pacific time seven forty five

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Speaker 1: Eastern on the Discord channel. So make sure you get

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Speaker 1: in there betting pros dot com s last chat or

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Speaker 1: the link below me here on YouTube to get in

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Speaker 1: and hang out on Thursday with us for the NFL Draft.

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Speaker 1: So I'm really excited for this. It's going to a

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Speaker 1: new experiment. It's a new way for you guys hanging out.

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Speaker 1: We'll watch the draft together and we'll have you guys

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Speaker 1: and we'll ask questions, we'll interact, we'll see what picks

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Speaker 1: are made, when and where, and you know, basically it's

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Speaker 1: all about the top ten. Right after that, we'll hang

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Speaker 1: around until my team picks at fifteen and then get

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Speaker 1: to some sixteen seventeen to get fifteen picks in and

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Speaker 1: we'll see how you guys do on the fly during

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Speaker 1: the draft. Live after all the picks happen, So it's

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Speaker 1: kind of a live mock draft in a way, but

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Speaker 1: it's not really a mock draft because the draft's going on,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna know who goes before the pick you make,

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Speaker 1: so who's off the board. You have to be able

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Speaker 1: to see the team and see what the most logical

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Speaker 1: pick is and everything else. So do a little homework.

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Speaker 1: Hang out with us for the first round of the

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Speaker 1: NFL Draft, at least half of it coming up on

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Speaker 1: Thursday night for the Discord Channel on Discord Stages, Dan

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Speaker 1: Harris and myself will be there starting at seven to

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Speaker 1: forty five Eastern time for that on Thursday. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: from there, let's start with a couple of plays. So

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Speaker 1: I got three bets at FanDuel and one bet at Circa.

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Speaker 1: Each book is going to have unique offerings and opportunities

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Speaker 1: to bet, all right. So I had to go and

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Speaker 1: find and jump some hoops here to get a Fandul

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Speaker 1: bet down. But I got one unit down at fandel tonight,

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Speaker 1: and then I've got I've got a order unit going

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Speaker 1: here in Vegas, and I'll have more bets coming on

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Speaker 1: the podcast for Wednesdays as well. And probably not on

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Speaker 1: Thursdays just because of the fact that what's going on.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know what we'll do for Thursday because

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Speaker 1: we're gonna be watching the draft like crazy, nothing really

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Speaker 1: else going on. Maybe a day baseball game I'll bet

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Speaker 1: on or something like that for Thursday. But here are

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Speaker 1: the bets that I have gotten down at fandel Three

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Speaker 1: of them. Okay. The first is one that I think

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Speaker 1: if you have access to it, you need to hammer it.

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Speaker 1: Justin Fields, the quarterback from Ohio State. I have seen

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Speaker 1: this his prop down to six and a half tonight

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Speaker 1: at FanDuel. It's juice to minus one ninety eight. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it's expensive, but Justin Fields the prop total is eight

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Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, eight and a half for Justin Fields.

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Speaker 1: I put a half a unit down on that tonight

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Speaker 1: at mine one ninety eight at Fangil. Okay, that is,

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Speaker 1: I cannot see Justin Field's going that low. It would

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Speaker 1: be stunning to me if Justin Fields falls out of

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Speaker 1: the top five, top six, or top seven, I cannot

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Speaker 1: see it. I think that's just I don't know. I

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Speaker 1: just don't get it, all right. So here's my logic.

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Speaker 1: Here's what I am thinking, we know what one, two is, right,

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence one and Zach Wilson too. Okay, so the

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Speaker 1: draft starts at three with the forty nine ers, who

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Speaker 1: now are making it known that it's either Trey Lance

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Speaker 1: or it's mac Jones. I can't get around the idea

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Speaker 1: that it's look, mac Jones. I could see mac Jones

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Speaker 1: going third, I really could, And I could see Shanahan,

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Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan saying he's my guy and I'm good with it.

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Speaker 1: But I also could see the fact that why did

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Speaker 1: the Niners go up? Because mac Jones could have fallen

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Speaker 1: to them at twelve? And I think they like mac Jones,

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Speaker 1: But I think they went up because Trey Lance was

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Speaker 1: going to come off the board at four or five

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Speaker 1: and they knew it, so they had to go to three.

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Speaker 1: They wanted to go to two to maybe get Zach Wilson,

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Speaker 1: but the Jets wouldn't do it, so they had to

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Speaker 1: go to three. And now at three, why do you

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Speaker 1: go to three? Wouldn't you go to like six seven

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Speaker 1: for mac Jones? Why go to three because Trey Lance

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Speaker 1: was coming off the board. Plus I actually do believe

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Speaker 1: that the forty nine ers are telling the truth when

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Speaker 1: it comes to Jimmy Garoppolo. I actually do think they're

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Speaker 1: going to start Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. I think that's

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Speaker 1: actually the truth, not a lie. I think everyone's been

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Speaker 1: looking for some drama here. I think the Niners want

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Speaker 1: to win now. If you want to win now, you

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Speaker 1: keep Jimmy Garoppolo and you develop Trey Lance for the future.

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Speaker 1: So I begrudgingly will admit that the third pick is

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Speaker 1: going to be Trey Lance. I do not buy, however,

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Speaker 1: that the Niners don't know who they're taking. Don't buy

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Speaker 1: that for a second, And I think that they're just

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Speaker 1: throwing smoke up there with Mac Jones. I just don't

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Speaker 1: think that's going to be the pick. So I think

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Speaker 1: Trey Lance goes third. Okay, So if Trey Lance goes third,

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Speaker 1: that leaves Justin Fields on the board for picks four, five, six, seven,

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Speaker 1: and eight. Do you really think Justin Field is lasting

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Speaker 1: that long? I mean, seriously, do you think Justin Fields,

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Speaker 1: who has been seen as the second best quarterback forever?

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Speaker 1: I don't care what the juice is, do you think

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Speaker 1: Justin Fields is lasting all the way to pick nine?

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Speaker 1: With the Broncos. No, that is not happening. Okay, no

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Speaker 1: way Justin Fields is coming off the board. In fact,

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Speaker 1: Justin Field's going four. This is why I'm not going

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Speaker 1: near the Kyle Pitts bets that I've seen so many

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Speaker 1: people say, hammer Kyle Pitts under five and a half.

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Speaker 1: No way am I doing that. There's no way I'm

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Speaker 1: hammering that because I still think that Pitts is winding

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Speaker 1: up with the Dolphins. I think he goes sixth, and

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Speaker 1: I think he's gonna go over his prop. But I'm

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Speaker 1: not betting it one way or the other because the

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Speaker 1: Falcons could wind up taking him. But the Falcons also

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Speaker 1: can take Justin Fields, who is a hometown kid from Georgia,

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Speaker 1: and you can stash him and Matt Ryan will be

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Speaker 1: mad about that, but who cares. That's your quarterback for

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Speaker 1: the future because Matt Ryan's got one two years maximum left.

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Speaker 1: Adding another toy, which I get is an incredible toy.

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Speaker 1: Pits could be amazing in that twelve person al It

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Speaker 1: could be amazing to watch what he can do. But

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Speaker 1: you're taking a tight end with the fourth pick in

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Speaker 1: the draft. Really, that seems really high. So the likelihood

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Speaker 1: of the Falcons trading out of the four pick is

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Speaker 1: really high. In my mind, Bronco has become the most logical, right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you want one of those great whiteouts

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Speaker 1: for Alabama at nine, you're gonna be able to get

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Speaker 1: one of them. So if you really want to replace

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Speaker 1: Julio Jones, if that's the plan, you're gonna trade Julio.

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Speaker 1: So you need a wide receiver, not really a tight end. Well,

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Speaker 1: that you trade Julio and then you drop down to nine,

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Speaker 1: you take a Bama wide out. So I'm not positive

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Speaker 1: that the Falcons are keeping the fourth pick. And that means

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Speaker 1: somebody comes up to draft Justin Fields. Okay, Justin Fields

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Speaker 1: under eight and a half at minus one ninety eight. Yes,

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Speaker 1: probably my favorite bet of the entire NFL draft. It's

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Speaker 1: that I saw it here in Vegas at seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. At circa at bet MGM at six and

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Speaker 1: a half. Okay, six and a half. We've got two

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Speaker 1: spots of value already here. Shopping around early can help

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Speaker 1: FanDuel mis one ninety eight half a unit Justin Field's

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Speaker 1: under eight and a half draft position, okay, number two

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Speaker 1: and this are these are three bets that I am

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Speaker 1: betting a quarter unit on and they're basically just going

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Speaker 1: to be sprinkles and things to watch and have fun

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Speaker 1: with quarterbacks. How many quarterbacks get drafted in the first rounds? Right?

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Speaker 1: We know the five? Right, Lawrence Wilson, Fields Jones, Lance

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Speaker 1: five done, one hundred percent, need one more over five

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Speaker 1: and a half is plus four sixty at the end

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Speaker 1: of the first round. Does somebody fall in love with

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Speaker 1: the Mills kid from Stanford? Does somebody fall in love

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Speaker 1: with the Kyle Trask story? I think yes, I think yes.

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Speaker 1: There's going to be six quarterbacks taken in the first round,

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Speaker 1: and the value play on plus four sixty is worth it.

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Speaker 1: If we get it wrong, so be it. But for

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Speaker 1: a quarter unit to put a flyer down on that,

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Speaker 1: it's almost a must. You almost have to do it,

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Speaker 1: you almost, I mean it's like a requirement just because

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Speaker 1: it's a flyer. But it's a flyer with the number

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Speaker 1: one position in sports with a long drop. Remember if

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Speaker 1: the first five picks were to go all quarterback, even

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Speaker 1: the first even in the top ten, you're talking about

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Speaker 1: twenty two picks without a quarterback being taken, with borderline

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Speaker 1: first round talented quarterbacks sitting there on the board with

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Speaker 1: teams that are quarterbacks starved, and by the time you

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Speaker 1: get down to the twenties with the Bears or Washington

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Speaker 1: or somebody like that, if they think there's no real

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Speaker 1: value in grabbing an offensive lineman or running back, but

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Speaker 1: grab the quarterback for the future year, you're telling me

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Speaker 1: that no one's drafting a quarterback late in the first

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Speaker 1: no one's taking the extra year. No one's doing the

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson trading back, say with the Bucks to go

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Speaker 1: into the first round and take a quarterback at thirty two.

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Speaker 1: No one's doing that. I don't know it's worth the

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Speaker 1: flyer quarter unit. Over five and a half quarterbacks taken

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Speaker 1: in the first round at plus four sixty at Fandel,

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Speaker 1: and then one more to get to number of offensive

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Speaker 1: players to be drafted in the first round, the total

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Speaker 1: is eighteen and a half. Okay, Fandel has got this

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Speaker 1: now at minus one twelve for over eighteen and a

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Speaker 1: half players to be taken offensively in the first round.

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Speaker 1: So we know that in the top ten there's probably

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Speaker 1: going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of eight to

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Speaker 1: nine players taken. There may be one defensive player. Patrick's

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Speaker 1: retained the third or junior whatever you know. The Alabama quarterback,

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Speaker 1: he will go in the top ten most likely, but

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Speaker 1: that's probably it. Everyone else is offense offense, offense offense.

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Speaker 1: So let's say it's nine of the ten, right, So

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Speaker 1: now we need ten of the next twenty two picks

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Speaker 1: to be on offense. And the number of offensive linemen

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Speaker 1: that they're projecting is pretty high. There's a lot of

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Speaker 1: offensive linemen, and there's a lot of guys like ron

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Speaker 1: Dell Moore and Gadarius Tony wide receivers who have first

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Speaker 1: round grades who could wind up going late in the

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Speaker 1: first round. Plus you're talking about some maybe one or

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Speaker 1: two running backs Travis etn or naj Harris. I don't

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Speaker 1: mind this quarter unit. Over eighteen and a half offensive

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Speaker 1: players to be taken in the first round on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: And then one bet that I got here in Vegas

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Speaker 1: at CIRCA Sports. So this might be just a circle prop.

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Speaker 1: So I apologize if you guys can't bet this, But

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Speaker 1: which quarterback will be taken first after Wilson and Lawrence

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Speaker 1: mac Jones justin fields? Trey Lance. Trey Lance is plus

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Speaker 1: two sixty five. Okay, I just told you the whole scenario.

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Speaker 1: I just kind of laid out what I think is

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Speaker 1: going to happen here for the NFL Draft. I told

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Speaker 1: you that I do think we're gonna wind up getting

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Speaker 1: ourselves into a Tray Lance at number three to the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers. That bet comes down to Jones versus

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Speaker 1: Trey Lance, and I just can't get my brain around it,

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Speaker 1: even though right now at I believe it's DraftKings, Mac

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Speaker 1: Jones is minus three h five to go third. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I could be dead wrong about this. If it is

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Speaker 1: Trey Lance, I'm wrong, and that plus two sixty five

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Speaker 1: was out the window and it should have been mac Jones.

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Speaker 1: I just think this is a value bet, and you

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Speaker 1: could have gotten Trey Lance third at plus four hundred,

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Speaker 1: but that's gone. So the best I could find it

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Speaker 1: was plus one ninety five for Trey Lance to go third.

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Speaker 1: That was the best odds I could find. So this

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Speaker 1: is essentially the same thing. But it's plus two sixty five,

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Speaker 1: So I'm getting the same thing. It's it's who's going third, right,

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Speaker 1: which quarterback goes third? It's the same exact prop, except

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Speaker 1: you are eliminating I guess you are adding into the

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Speaker 1: possibility that you could have a crazy you know, watch

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Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts wind up going, watch him going third and

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Speaker 1: make all of this go. Excuse me, what what are

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Speaker 1: you doing? Yeah? No, right, that's not happening. But okay,

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Speaker 1: so I guess there's that. But if you want to

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Speaker 1: talk about value, I just think you know, there's Trey

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Speaker 1: Lance at number three. Now I may come back in

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Speaker 1: here with Mac Jones over three and a half for

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Speaker 1: his draft position, because if I'm going with Trey Lance

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Speaker 1: to go third, that means that means we're seeing Mac

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Speaker 1: Jones go over and mac Jones over three and a

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Speaker 1: half right now is plus two zh five. So tomorrow

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Speaker 1: I may come back in here and jump on this.

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Speaker 1: But just in case I'm dead wrong and the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers come out on Tuesday or Wednesday, they're like, hey,

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Speaker 1: by the way, we're taking mac Jones and we're like,

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Speaker 1: uh shoot, I know, then that bet for which quarterback

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Speaker 1: comes off first is wrong in that quarter unit is dead.

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Speaker 1: So just so I don't get beat on two different bets,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to make that officially just yet, but

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Speaker 1: I will be eyeballing Mac Jones over three and a

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Speaker 1: half again, everyone's saying Mac Jones is going third. Trey

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Speaker 1: Lance's spot is still six and a half the unders

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Speaker 1: juiced min as two thirty right now on that, but

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Speaker 1: I still think Trey Lance is going third. I just

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Speaker 1: I can't get off of it. I get that Mac

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Speaker 1: Jones would be the pick that would make everybody go oh,

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Speaker 1: so Kyle Shanahan doesn't care about anyone else's opinion, But

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Speaker 1: so I just can't go there. I just can't go

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Speaker 1: there yet. Maybe tomorrow on the podcast, I'll add these in,

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Speaker 1: But right now, those are my first four bets going

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Speaker 1: for the NFL Draft. I will have two player props

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Speaker 1: going today when zero and two yesterday on that. But

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to get discouraged when two and oh

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Speaker 1: day before. So it happens, right, we just get we

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Speaker 1: get burned. Kind of a bummer there, but get back

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Speaker 1: to the lab, get back to it with the work,

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Speaker 1: and hopefully get a better get two better picks for

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Speaker 1: us coming up today for that, So I will have

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Speaker 1: a half unit going today. But that's about it. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna take a mental health day, if you will, and

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Speaker 1: take some time off after a really rough rough Monday

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Speaker 1: that crushed me so take a little bit of a break,

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Speaker 1: but the four bets for Thursday. Now, Okay, four NFL

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Speaker 1: Draft bets justin fields under eight and a half at

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Speaker 1: fan duel minus one ninety eight for a half a

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Speaker 1: unit quarter unit five over five and a half quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: taken in the first round at plus four sixty total

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Speaker 1: over eighteen and a half total offensive offensive players to

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Speaker 1: be taken in the first half draft for first round

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Speaker 1: at minus one twelve, and which quarterback of the three

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Speaker 1: gets drafted first Jones Fields or Trey Lance. Trey Lance

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Speaker 1: is plus two sixty five at circa quarter unit on

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Speaker 1: that for the place. So again, very cool thing happening

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Speaker 1: on Thursday. We will have a lot five Discord chat

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Speaker 1: going where you can win t shirts for making correct

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Speaker 1: picks during the first round of the draft up to

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Speaker 1: pick seventeen or so. I'll explain a little bit more

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Speaker 1: of that coming up tomorrow and then on Thursday as

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Speaker 1: well before we begin as to how you can win.

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Speaker 1: But having some fun with that on Thursday, mark it

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Speaker 1: down to be with us for the first round of

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Speaker 1: the NFL Draft in the Discord channel as we see

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Speaker 1: how these bets unfold. So four bets going I'll have

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Speaker 1: more than this, but those are the first four bets

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Speaker 1: for the NFL Draft coming up on Thursday. And then

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Speaker 1: we're back tomorrow morning for another edition of the DLA

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Speaker 1: Juice podcast, being brought to you by BETMGM right here

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Speaker 1: on bettingpros dot com.