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Speaker 1: Bitcoin is better money than anything else out there. There

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Speaker 1: is a speculative attack happening of people borrowing fiat currencies

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Speaker 1: in order to buy bitcoin. Based on the fundamentals, bitcoin

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Speaker 1: is going to surprise to be upside then to the downside.

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Speaker 1: If you invest in a bitcoin treasury company that has

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Speaker 1: levers wong bitcoin and is increasing stats per share over

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Speaker 1: the longer run, it could potentially.

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Speaker 2: Have perform Bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: But over the short run and with bad management.

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Speaker 3: How should we as bitcoinners be thinking about and working

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Speaker 3: with government? Yes, so here, thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 2: Hey, thanks for having me Mark, Thanks for being flexible.

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Speaker 3: Maybe kind of work around this, but I really wanted

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Speaker 3: to sit down face to face.

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Speaker 4: I think the first time I met you was I

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Speaker 4: can bit.

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Speaker 3: Block boom, they can like twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 2: Maybe that sounds all right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you've been all in on bitcoin at least since

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Speaker 3: twenty fourteen. I want to ask about that. I started

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Speaker 3: buying bitcoin twenty fifteen and I was like, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 3: I have to tele a bowl world about it. And

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Speaker 3: then I found crypto and right around twenty nineteen was

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Speaker 3: by I foun mc kim on the other side of it,

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Speaker 3: and I was like, all right, I've done. I've done

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Speaker 3: my time in crypto, this bic one on the to

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Speaker 3: bitlock boom, I remember that. But you stayed bitcoin only

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Speaker 3: twenty fourteen. You co founded the One Institute. So how

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Speaker 3: did you one get into bitcoin and then manage to

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Speaker 3: stay firm?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So already in high school I was really interested

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Speaker 5: in open source software and sound money, and so I

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Speaker 5: was like a golden silver bug type person reading Austrian economics,

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Speaker 5: reading Murray Rothbard, thinking about like hundred center reserve banking,

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Speaker 5: even thinking about how you could actually have something better

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Speaker 5: than gold that like, could we'll just have a fixed supply.

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Speaker 5: But that was just kind of a thought because obviously

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Speaker 5: I didn't think that there was any way to like.

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Speaker 2: Actually have that in the real world.

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Speaker 5: But I was just kind of because Austrian economists will

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Speaker 5: theorize about well, what's the right amount of money, and

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Speaker 5: it's like, well, just any amount of money works well,

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Speaker 5: but ideally you want to have it fixed, and you know,

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Speaker 5: to the extent that gold can can try to get there,

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Speaker 5: it's better than government, you know, few currencies. But in

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Speaker 5: any case, when I first heard about bitcoin and really

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Speaker 5: went down the rabbit hole of the fixed supply twenty

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Speaker 5: one million. This is like the end of twenty twelve.

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Speaker 5: I was in grad school getting my master's in accounting,

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Speaker 5: and you know, it would have been great if I

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Speaker 5: had been like, you know, mister Sailor with like five

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Speaker 5: hundred million dollars on the bouance sheet but in the conviction.

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Speaker 5: But no, I was a broke college student, you know,

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Speaker 5: cruing a student loan debt, so unintelligent leverage. But in

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Speaker 5: any case, what interested in me wasn't so much the

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Speaker 5: idea of like getting rich quick. It was really about

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Speaker 5: the ideological nature of this, which is that for decades

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Speaker 5: Liberty Harrian's had been complaining about Siah currency ever since.

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Speaker 5: Really you know, we went off the gold standard from near.

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Speaker 2: Nixon, but even before that, Roosevelt and I didn't really

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Speaker 2: they bother about.

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Speaker 5: Sure, yeah, yeah, absolutely, But I didn't really see a

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Speaker 5: path of how do we get from here to there

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Speaker 5: other than just calamity and chaos.

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Speaker 6: Of like the Fiat systems that blows up, self destructs,

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Speaker 6: everybody's like starving in the streets, and we finally are

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Speaker 6: back to jo Yeah, yeah, exactly, which you know, like

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Speaker 6: I'm a big believer.

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Speaker 2: In the ends.

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Speaker 5: Do not justify the means and said to me, it

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Speaker 5: was like, wow, there's anything we can do to avoid

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Speaker 5: that that would be really great.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 5: And bitcoin came along, and I think that the the

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Speaker 5: key difference in my mind between bitcoin and gold was

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Speaker 5: that we could upgrade to bitcoin and it's not like

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Speaker 5: whereas with gold, like we based our downgrading to gold

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Speaker 5: because something bad has happened.

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Speaker 2: We can upgrade to bitcoin and.

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Speaker 5: Not have if something bad happen to the dollar. Now,

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Speaker 5: of course, like if something bad does happen to the dollar,

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Speaker 5: you can foresee it accelerating bitcoin adoption, but I would

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Speaker 5: actually argue that it would really accelerate gold and silver adoption.

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Speaker 5: Maybe that's what we're seeing currently and that there's still

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Speaker 5: a process of education for people to realize that bitcoin

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Speaker 5: is better money than anything else out there. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: that was my introduction to it, and that's what you know.

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Speaker 5: I remember early twenty thirteen, we're having these conversations about bitcoin.

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Speaker 5: Somebody else in our group is like, oh, have you

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Speaker 5: heard of light cooin? And then on Facebook as.

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Speaker 7: Well, I started hearing questions about light cooin and I

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Speaker 7: didn't have an opinion on it, so I was like, Okay, well,

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Speaker 7: I'm going to go research what's going on here, and

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Speaker 7: they're saying that the advantages that has faster confirmation lives silver.

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Speaker 5: Correct, So already that argument is silver bitcoin's gold. It

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Speaker 5: was like immediately debunked in my mind by the divisibility

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Speaker 5: of bitcoin. And so it's like, well, SATs are the

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Speaker 5: silver to beatc's gold, right that you can split it

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Speaker 5: up into a very And so I didn't like that

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Speaker 5: they used that that that Freeman because already in my

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Speaker 5: mind I was like, well, that's not even true. So

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Speaker 5: really this is just a method of almost like psychological

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Speaker 5: manipulation through metaphor. And then the faster confirmation times I

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Speaker 5: found out that actually that didn't even matter either, because

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Speaker 5: you get the same amount of finality over an hour

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Speaker 5: that you get either with either protocol and so and

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Speaker 5: then they would never come back with like a really

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Speaker 5: compelling counter argument, and that's when I started.

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Speaker 8: Becoming a toxic Maximore stuff.

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Speaker 5: Like, Okay, why is it that every time I come

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Speaker 5: back with an argument against their thing, they're not happy

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Speaker 5: about it, and that they're they're pumping their back, they're

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Speaker 5: not really like engaging in something you know, substantive. So

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Speaker 5: and also just from the sound money aspect of it,

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Speaker 5: where it's like, none of this works if we're basically saying, oh,

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Speaker 5: we're going to keep expanding the money supply throughout coins.

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Speaker 5: So I just felt like a very strong bias against

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Speaker 5: that that if you The last point is really un

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Speaker 5: monetary economics, which is that there's always been this debate

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Speaker 5: about value versus utility, and so a long time ago

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Speaker 5: it was the banking school versus the currency school in

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Speaker 5: Great Britain, and so when when thinking about the utility

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Speaker 5: of money, like Akanesians are like, it's about spending it, right,

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Speaker 5: it's about the velocity of it, and you want to

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Speaker 5: have liquidity and just money slashing around the system, and

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Speaker 5: the Austrians were very much in the mindset of no, actually,

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Speaker 5: there's a lot of value in saving and holding money,

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Speaker 5: and that gives you optionality. It's the option value of

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Speaker 5: money that if you try to inflate people out of

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Speaker 5: holding money, then you're yeah, you're you're creating a short

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Speaker 5: term stimulative effect, but you're actually taking away a very

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Speaker 5: important tool for investors in the economy to be able

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Speaker 5: to hold cash and to wait for good opportunities.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting to hear that at the at the

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Speaker 3: New York unconfience where I was a week ahead to go.

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Speaker 3: You said something online. I saw Michael Sailor a chuckle

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Speaker 3: from and you said. I think you said something like

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Speaker 3: I've learned most of my stuff just from arguing online.

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Speaker 3: You're sort or something like that. And so to your point,

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Speaker 3: like kind of arguing or or going back forward with

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Speaker 3: the likelying guys back then, and so you've been really

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Speaker 3: good at that and just sort of like hashing it

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Speaker 3: out online that really well, I was like more of

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Speaker 3: tech guy. So I built up two different tech companies

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Speaker 3: and had some exits on that and so but then

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Speaker 3: in two thousand and eight I wiped out and I

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Speaker 3: was like, what's this whole financial system? I have to

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Speaker 3: go figure that out. And I quickly found out about

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Speaker 3: the FIAT system, the debt based system, and I'd beat

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Speaker 3: a bullbot also. So I also got bitcoin pretty quickly

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Speaker 3: because I was really aware of what the problem was

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Speaker 3: and you know, having seening Fiat and being a bullbug.

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Speaker 3: But then I still fell down the tech rabbit hole.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's maybe it's maybe it is blockchain, and

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Speaker 3: maybe we do need all these different ledgers and so anyway,

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Speaker 3: a good job on that, I think, you know, I'm

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Speaker 3: sure you would agree. A lot of times people don't

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Speaker 3: understand bitcoin because they don't understand the problems. So the

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Speaker 3: don't understand the solutions that I solved, and I came

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Speaker 3: at it from a different problem solution a little bit

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Speaker 3: maybe then use you a little bit more on the

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Speaker 3: austream monetary side, where I was more a little bit

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Speaker 3: on the tech side, even though we both saw FIAT

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Speaker 3: as the problem. So either way, but you had some

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Speaker 3: really early predictions, one of which was in twenty fourteen

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Speaker 3: calling for the speculative attack, right, and even when I

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Speaker 3: heard about that years ago, it was still kind of early.

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Speaker 3: And of course we can look through history and see,

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Speaker 3: you know, Hugo Stine's in Wymar Republic doing things like this.

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Speaker 3: Where did you, I guess, pick up that and think

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Speaker 3: that was going to happen in the bitcoin space.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So it's really from hearing about I think it

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Speaker 5: was a lecture by Hans Hermann Happa where he's pointing

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Speaker 5: out that there are mechanisms by which currencies compete against

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Speaker 5: each other in the international market, and so as libertarians

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Speaker 5: like we're often like, oh, FIAT currencies are you know, uh,

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Speaker 5: they're banked by the military. And you'll hear like charliston

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Speaker 5: you know kntans to say this as well, like the

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Speaker 5: value is banked by the military and some capacity, and

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Speaker 5: you know, there's there's truth to that and that like

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Speaker 5: if if your country gets invaded, like your currency gainst zero,

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Speaker 5: So there's truth in that. But but they can't prop

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Speaker 5: up the value of currency, and certainly not when it

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Speaker 5: comes to competing on four x markets, right, so like

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Speaker 5: you've never seen a headline of oh Trump deployed the troops,

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Speaker 5: like the dollars up five percent, Like that's not a thing.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 5: The way that they compete in international money markets is

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Speaker 5: true interest rates and through capital controls and through currency reserves,

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Speaker 5: and so those are kind of the three tools that

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Speaker 5: they use to coordinate devaluation amongst FIAC currencies. Unfortunately, it's

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Speaker 5: very rare that they coordinate revaluation of you know, increasing

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Speaker 5: the value of currencies.

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Speaker 2: And that when you look then at.

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Speaker 5: What are currency speculator's role in this, because ultimately all

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Speaker 5: of these levers that the currency issuer has, they only

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Speaker 5: have an effect to the extent that market participants are

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Speaker 5: on the other side of the trade. And so if

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Speaker 5: you look at the history of devaluations, there's cases like

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Speaker 5: Southeast Asia in the late nineties and then most famously

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Speaker 5: or Soros and the Bank of England and the British

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Speaker 5: pound with where they were trying to manage the exchange

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Speaker 5: rate of the British pound to enter into a stability

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Speaker 5: of the Eurozone. And that the person on the ground

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Speaker 5: was Scott Bessant in London who was orchestrating, you know,

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Speaker 5: some of their their speculations, which is basically to say

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Speaker 5: that if you have a weak currency like the British

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Speaker 5: pound and a strong currency like the Deutsche Mark, that

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Speaker 5: you can borrow in the weak currency borrow pounds, sell

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Speaker 5: the pounds for Deutsche mark, so that you're shorting the pound,

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Speaker 5: shorting one fiat currency against another, and that is the

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Speaker 5: deutsch mark appreciates and value. Then you can go back

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Speaker 5: and repay that pound denominated liability the borrow and have

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Speaker 5: a profit.

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Speaker 2: And so.

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Speaker 5: The that that's really how currency values come into equilibrium

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Speaker 5: against each other and kind of like you get to

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Speaker 5: a point where supplying demand is reflective. Now, of course

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Speaker 5: the policymakers, they have their own agendas behind them, and

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Speaker 5: so you know, if they don't want this to happen,

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Speaker 5: what they have to do in the case of the

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Speaker 5: British pound is like, for example, raised interest rates so

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Speaker 5: that borrowing British pounds becomes more expensive, and so it

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Speaker 5: undermines the economics of that trade.

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Speaker 2: Paul Krugman famously.

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Speaker 5: You know, obviously he's become a political hack, but a

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Speaker 5: long time ago he was a legitimate economist. Keith popularized

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Speaker 5: his term of speculative attack. I think it's pejorative because

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Speaker 5: ultimately he doesn't like speculative.

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Speaker 2: Attacks because they impose fiscal and.

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Speaker 5: Monetary discipline on governments and saying like, hey, you can't

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Speaker 5: like go full Stephanie Kelton money printer. You actually have

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Speaker 5: constraints that are put on you by you know, the

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Speaker 5: bond traders and the currency speculators and these giant you know,

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Speaker 5: macro hedge funds.

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Speaker 2: And so fast.

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Speaker 5: For today, I think that's what's happening is that in

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Speaker 5: a very interesting format, there is a speculative attack happening

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Speaker 5: of people borrowing fiat currencies in order to buy bitcoin,

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Speaker 5: and that today fiat currencies have to tighten their monetary

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Speaker 5: policy to be more aligned with bitcoin, otherwise they're going

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Speaker 5: to continue to invite this kind of trade.

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Speaker 3: And now we're seeing that start to happen faster and

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Speaker 3: faster and faster. It's the arbitrage trade, it's the carry trade.

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Speaker 3: We kind of see it play out in different different

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Speaker 3: areas all over the place. I want to dive into that,

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Speaker 3: but before we do, I guess, you know, kind of

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Speaker 3: retracing some of this. So, like you came from the

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Speaker 3: financial side of things, and you've studied the financial markets.

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Speaker 3: You understand the specultive attack and the way these financial

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Speaker 3: markets work. Talking about sort of like these battle of ideas.

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Speaker 3: How you've been always engaging people in open debate. Good,

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't want to debate you. But it seems like today,

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Speaker 3: maybe maybe it's a function of the industry growing, but

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Speaker 3: it seemed like people that came to bitcoin early maybe

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Speaker 3: were a little bit more principled. They came for one

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Speaker 3: reason or another. I lost my money, I had to

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Speaker 3: go find a solution. A sound money supply worked for me.

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Speaker 3: You were censored, a cipherpunk whatever it is. Today, it

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Speaker 3: seems like we have a lot of people in that

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Speaker 3: maybe don't understand how the world works. From a bunch

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Speaker 3: of different angles, specifically right now about the financialization aspect

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Speaker 3: of it. So a lot of bitcoiners think that bitcoin

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Speaker 3: ends financialization and like Wall Street's not necessary because we

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Speaker 3: can just save our money and it all goes away.

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Speaker 4: I mean, do you see that? And if so, how

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Speaker 4: would you counter that?

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Speaker 9: Every day we see headlines about inflation and dead and

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Speaker 9: diminishing control over.

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Speaker 4: Our own money.

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Speaker 9: That's why I always come back to bitcoin, because let's

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Speaker 9: go for generations, It's go for legacy.

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Speaker 4: But protecting your bitcoin legacy the right way.

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Speaker 9: Is not always simple. It demands discipline, focus and the

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Speaker 9: right partner. Now, that's why I personally use Unchained Signature.

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Speaker 9: It's a premium private client service for serious bitcoin holders

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Speaker 9: who want expert guidance, resilient custody, and the enduring partnership.

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Speaker 9: Now Signature you're paired with your own dedicated account manager,

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Speaker 9: someone who understands your goals helps you every step of

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Speaker 9: the way. You're going to get white glove onboarding, same

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Speaker 9: day emergency support, personalized education, reduce trading fees, and priority

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Speaker 9: access to exclusive events and features. Unchained Collaborative custody model

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Speaker 9: is designed to provide the same security as the world's

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Speaker 9: biggest bitcoin custodians.

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Speaker 3: But for those who prefer to hold their own keys.

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Speaker 9: Now, I've been using and recommending unchained for years. I

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Speaker 9: even got my parents to set up with them. So

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Speaker 9: if you want to get set up, check out unchained

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Speaker 4: Your first year.

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Speaker 9: Because your bitcoin isn't just for life, it's for generations.

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Speaker 5: Yes, so bitcoin gives you that option to uh not

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Speaker 5: have to invest in stocks and bonds, or in real

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Speaker 5: estate or in small businesses like that, you have the

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Speaker 5: option to just save bitcoin. And I think that that

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Speaker 5: itself has been very attractive for me and for lots

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Speaker 5: of others out there who see stocks and bonds and

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Speaker 5: real estate and all of all these asset classes that

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Speaker 5: you know are tied in with Wall Street is.

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Speaker 2: Basically overvalued relative to bitcoin.

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Speaker 5: And so I think that thesis can be true, and

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Speaker 5: that then when you think about the financialization of bitcoin,

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Speaker 5: it's like, in that set of circumstances, could you really

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Speaker 5: expect Wall Street to do anything other than try to

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Speaker 5: adopt bitcoin, like you think that they're not going to

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Speaker 5: act in.

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Speaker 2: Their self interests, right.

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Speaker 5: You know, this is the place where like famously Gordon

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Speaker 5: Gecko is like greed is good.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 5: If you really think that bitcoin is the best performing

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Speaker 5: asset historically and going forward, then you should fully expect

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Speaker 5: Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: To just go all in on bitcoin. And I think

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Speaker 2: that there's part of it is.

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Speaker 5: A concern that Wall Street is going to co opt bitcoin, right,

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Speaker 5: and Blackstone is going to go in there and.

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Speaker 8: They're gonna like change the rules and they're.

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Speaker 5: Gonna muck it up and and and maybe with an

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Speaker 5: neferious ultimate end of just destroying bitcoin or more benign

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Speaker 5: of like advancing their own interests and that undermining bitcoin, right,

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Speaker 5: So like trying to get everybody to custody with you know,

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Speaker 5: the ETF and like try.

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Speaker 8: To just clamp down on the ecosystem and control it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I think it's the opposite.

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Speaker 5: So I think that Blackrock, Fidelity, all of the other

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Speaker 5: financial institutions that are embracing bitcoin, they are joining the

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Speaker 5: bitcoin network, and really I see it as like they

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Speaker 5: are finding how to integrate with bitcoin, not how to

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Speaker 5: integrate bitcoin into their world. And so when I look

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Speaker 5: at like, so we have to start with the idea

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Speaker 5: that like sixty one oh two executive order means that

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Speaker 5: these are giant honey pots of bitcoin that you can

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Speaker 5: get seized by the government when when the crisis arises,

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Speaker 5: right when the time is right. I think that that

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Speaker 5: is a huge risk, and that the only way to

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Speaker 5: interact that risk is through lobbying. I actually don't think

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Speaker 5: that it's as effective as people think to say, oh,

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Speaker 5: if we all self custody, that we can avoid sixty

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Speaker 5: one oh two, because ultimately, if even if you self custody,

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Speaker 5: at some point, you want to do something with us

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Speaker 5: bitcoin right, right, like you want to pay for your

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Speaker 5: kids vacation to Disney World, and you know that basically

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Speaker 5: if you take the bitcoin addicult storage, there's no exchanges

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Speaker 5: to bring them to, right.

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Speaker 2: You might have like a bitcoin guy.

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Speaker 5: On the street who you know could exchange, right, yeah,

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Speaker 5: but like do you really you know, want to take

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Speaker 5: out like fifty grand, you know, And so then suddenly

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Speaker 5: you're in a situation where sixty one or two affect

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Speaker 5: you even if you're self custodying. And so even if

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Speaker 5: you are a self custody MAXI, I think that you

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Speaker 5: want to be engaged in politics so that not only

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Speaker 5: did you avoid that outcome, but you create a better

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Speaker 5: outcome of Hey, no capital gains taxes on your bitcoin, right,

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Speaker 5: you don't even need a KYCML when you take the

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Speaker 5: medical storage. And so I think that we want to

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Speaker 5: be engaged with the policy making process to advocate for

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Speaker 5: the best outcome. And I think that the more financialization

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Speaker 5: of bitcoin there is that it's it's great to have

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Speaker 5: black Rock and Fidelity and micro Strategy and anybody else

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Speaker 5: hiring lobbyists and like getting bitcoiners in the room to

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Speaker 5: advocate for these policies that are good for everyone. Right,

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Speaker 5: They're good for the treasury companies, they're good for the miners,

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Speaker 5: they're good for the publicly traded companies, for the financial institutions,

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Speaker 5: and for the self custodied PLB who just wants to

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Speaker 5: you know, pay for his kids vacation.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the financial industry is one of the biggest

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Speaker 3: lobbying groups out there, so of course it is right, Well,

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Speaker 3: we can get the pharmaceutical companies to put it under.

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Speaker 4: Balance sheets that my health out too, but we won't

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Speaker 4: even about that.

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Speaker 3: But so I would agree with you on that, but

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Speaker 3: it seems like maybe there's a lot of people that

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Speaker 3: don't understand capitalism. Then so they think that again, right,

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Speaker 3: all this financial stuff goes away. So you're a grifter

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Speaker 3: if you're going to help these companies raise money?

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Speaker 4: How dare you? Don't you know? People should just go

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Speaker 4: hoddle their bitcoin on a hill?

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Speaker 3: Right, So I think there's that, and then almost they

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Speaker 3: want to dictate how bitcoin should be used.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so okay, so I think that part of it

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Speaker 2: is just we.

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Speaker 4: Don't need to call it any names, but you know

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Speaker 4: who we're talking about.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the CAF dependency of like a lot of OG's

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Speaker 5: saw what happened with mount Gox, and so when you

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Speaker 5: think about it probabilistically from like an actuarial table perspective,

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Speaker 5: if you were really scarred by Mount Gox, like you

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Speaker 5: have a very set like list of best practices about

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Speaker 5: how you can survive with your bitcoin, and you could.

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Speaker 4: Also say Tara Luna and Celsius and and all that.

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Speaker 5: Yes, But then also like even if you held a coinbase,

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Speaker 5: I've heard the stories of people struggling to get at

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Speaker 5: their bitcoin out of coinbase because of kycaml right of like, Okay,

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00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 5: now they've got additional verification all of that, and so

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Speaker 5: I completely understand and you know, like this is from

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Speaker 5: lots of secondhand, firsthand you know, sight seeing over the

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Speaker 5: past decade. We cannot undervalue the self custody, right, So

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Speaker 5: like even for somebody who's interested in just purely financial returns,

404
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Speaker 5: you have to multiply the financial returns by the probability

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Speaker 5: of loss from not self custodying, from having to trust

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Speaker 5: the third party. Okay, So now today, I think that

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Speaker 5: with the election of Trump, there's a real, big, like

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Speaker 5: psychological problem that's facing the bitcoin community, which is that

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Speaker 5: we've had it in for the past four years. I

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Speaker 5: think we've had a really nice mindset of Joe Biden

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Speaker 5: and Kamala could they can just come in and take

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Speaker 5: our bitcoin any day?

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Speaker 2: And so, like self custody is non negotiable.

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Speaker 5: Now it's realizing that actually, as long as we have

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Speaker 5: like some baseline amount of property rights and working institutions

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Speaker 5: here in the US, they can't undo the ETF. So

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Speaker 5: to come in and say, oh, well they could see

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Speaker 5: it's like the ETF that's basically kind of in the

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Speaker 5: same realm as saying they could come in and seize

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Speaker 5: all the four one ks and you know, all gold, ETFs,

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Speaker 5: the s and P five hundred like everything, right, And

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Speaker 5: so I think that there's there's a there's a reality

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Speaker 5: check of like a massive amount of uh, the world's

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Speaker 5: wealth is in US capital markets, and it is actually

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Speaker 5: reliant on the regulatory framework and the rule of law

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Speaker 5: US institutions. And the reason why the US continues to

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Speaker 5: be the wealthiest country in the world is, I would argue,

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Speaker 5: due to the stability of the architecture that was set

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Speaker 5: in place by the founding fathers in you know, really

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Speaker 5: divinely inspired wisdom h two hundred and fifty years ago.

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Speaker 4: And that.

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Speaker 5: If if if you have the view that well, that's

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Speaker 5: actually very fragile. One, we have to fight for it.

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Speaker 5: So I actually agree that it is fairly fragile. But two,

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Speaker 5: you basically we will we would have to go around

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Speaker 5: door to door and fud all of that into saying

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Speaker 5: that like, you know, your your retirement account is going

438
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 5: to get seized by the government next year, that's why

439
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 5: you need to buy bitcoin and self CUSSI it.

440
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 2: And so we could we could.

441
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 5: Do that, you know, like drive bitcoin marketing that way,

442
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 5: but It goes back to like do the uns justify

443
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 5: the means? No, I don't think sowing panic, uh, you know,

444
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 5: by spreading food in the public, it's like a good

445
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 5: way of selling bitcoin. I think that we have to

446
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 5: sell bitcoin on its merits of like do you want

447
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 5: to have the freedom to control your own money or not?

448
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 5: Right like that, you know, we don't have to like

449
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 5: trust to strike here in people's hearts all the time

450
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 5: to can I give a positive vision for bitcoin?

451
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 2: And I think we.

452
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 5: Really have to meet them where they're at, and honestly

453
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 5: where I'm at.

454
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 2: I don't think the.

455
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 5: Rule of law is like falling apart in here in

456
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 5: the US to such a degree that if you buy

457
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 5: a security, whether it's an ETF.

458
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,120
Speaker 4: Or the brakes a little bit.

459
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean we to the point like that

460
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago it was a different direction.

461
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 4: But I agree, yeah.

462
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 5: And I also think that if you look at, okay,

463
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 5: when the rubber hits the road, like what what would

464
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 5: the elites tolerate. I don't think they would tolerate like

465
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 5: arbitrary seizure of like assets at that level you could

466
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 5: argue like and look at like the case of gold,

467
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 5: right like, why is it that they.

468
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,360
Speaker 8: Were okay with Executive Order sixty one O two.

469
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 5: And I would argue that it's because gold custody had

470
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 5: already centralized, because that is the equal equilibrium.

471
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 2: Outcome for gold custody.

472
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 5: I think for bitcoin custody, it's all about decentralization. Having

473
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 5: a multi sig is something that you cannot do with gold.

474
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 5: And so even if they're if they're thinking like two

475
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 5: steps ahead of all right, well if we sixty one

476
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 5: O two bitcoin, what's the next step. Well, it's multi jurisdiction,

477
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:49,159
Speaker 5: multi signature of custody right where Now sixty one oh

478
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,479
Speaker 5: two in one country doesn't mean that you see, it's

479
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 5: the bitcoin.

480
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 2: It just means that you're entering into years of litigation

481
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 2: to try to seize the bitcoin.

482
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,479
Speaker 4: Maybe I often think about that.

483
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:02,439
Speaker 3: I mean, I remember Ray Dalily making a big deal

484
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 3: about that, and in sixty one oh two, the government

485
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 3: had created the Federal Reserve. In nineteen thirteen printed way

486
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 3: too many of those fake currency units, and by nineteen

487
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 3: thirty three.

488
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 4: They owed gold. So they owed gold, so they needed

489
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 4: the gold.

490
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 3: But they don't owe bitcoin to anybody, right, They owed dollars, right,

491
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:19,919
Speaker 3: So why would they seize.

492
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 4: They don't.

493
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 3: They don't have the same demand or need for the

494
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 3: bitcoin like they did for the gold back then.

495
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 5: I think that they're going to run the playbook in reverse, right,

496
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,199
Speaker 5: because I think that in order to have a you know,

497
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 5: like ship of theseus like we're going to replace each

498
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 5: plank of this ship of seatt We're going to replace

499
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 5: it with bitcoin and or you know, like people will

500
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 5: talk about replacing.

501
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 2: The jet engines mid flight, right, Like.

502
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 5: That's basically what we have to do if we don't

503
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:53,879
Speaker 5: want s to hit the fan from a societal perspective, Yeah,

504
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 5: And I think that the best path to get there

505
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 5: is for them to print dollars to buy bitcoin until

506
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 5: each dollar is fully backed by bitcoin. Yeah, and that's

507
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 5: how you kind of get to the equilibrium mat com.

508
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 3: Do you think it's also probably levels to this game? Right,

509
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 3: So you started the meme, I think you started about

510
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 3: selling your chairs or whatever.

511
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 2: Right, the IMT started that meme?

512
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 4: Oh is that the IMF started that meme?

513
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 3: But I think about like the plub who's just trying

514
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 3: to get to one bitcoin, and it's like, just get

515
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 3: to one bitcoin, don't buy anything else. Everything else is

516
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 3: a scam nothing's worth more than one bitcoin. But like

517
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 3: I've been to Michael Saylor's house in Miami, He's got

518
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 3: like three outs out there, Like as you have more,

519
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:31,439
Speaker 3: you have more money. And I think about even my

520
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 3: own bitcoin, A good majority of it's in multi sig

521
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,400
Speaker 3: and then some's on single sig and some on some exchanges,

522
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 3: and I have a little bit on my phone, and

523
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 3: it's like kind of everywhere. So there's like levels to it, right,

524
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 3: and so maybe maybe it's people in different levels and

525
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 3: they don't understand that. But even just going back to

526
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 3: the financial system for a second, like the financialization, sure,

527
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: but like there's some parts that will never go away, right,

528
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 3: Like we're always going to have savers and not just

529
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 3: individuals that can do multi sig or cold storage, but

530
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 3: like corporations, So there's gonna be some need for that

531
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 3: insurance services, capital formation, Like that's never going to go away.

532
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 3: So that part, I mean, sure, maybe we don't need

533
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 3: to invest into a four oh one K. Yeah, but

534
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 3: like the Wall Street scaffolding doesn't just disappear.

535
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 5: Well, there's that, And then also there's people who actually

536
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 5: want to try to outperform bitcoin by going leverage long right,

537
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 5: and I actually think that that's that's maybe the purest

538
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 5: way of trying to perform Bitcoin is just going leverage

539
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 5: long and historically the challenge there has been liquidations. So

540
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 5: like when I worked at Kraken, like we had a

541
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 5: margin tating product, right, and.

542
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 2: So it was very popular.

543
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 5: And then it's no secret that sometimes we had to

544
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 5: turn it off for.

545
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 2: New positions because we just ran out of dollars to

546
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 2: lend to borrowers.

547
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 5: And so it's also no secret to anyone that whether

548
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 5: it's a Kraken or at bitmex or any other kind

549
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 5: of leverage trading platform, that Bitcoin being volatile, causing cascading

550
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 5: liquidations and causing increased volatility with this leverage, right, And

551
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 5: so I think that's what's disturbing for bitcoiners is this

552
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 5: idea that if you invest in a bitcoin treasury company

553
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 5: that has leveraged long bitcoin and is increasing SaaS for share,

554
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 5: that over the long run it could potentially perform Bitcoin.

555
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 5: That's really you know, just to put it bluntly, it's

556
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 5: disgusting to bitcoiners because in the mindset of like, the

557
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 5: virtuous thing always has to be the most financially rewarding thing, right,

558
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 5: the virtuous thing of self cussing, right, has to be

559
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 5: the most rewarding and if it's not, then there's an

560
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 5: injustice occurring.

561
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 2: Right. But the reality is that it's a trade off.

562
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 5: It's saying, Okay, you're gonna have to trust the third part,

563
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 5: and it could underperformed bitcoin. It could outperform bitcoin if

564
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 5: you look at the fundamentals, like if it's really being

565
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,959
Speaker 5: executed well over the long run, it ought to be

566
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 5: expected to outperform bitcoin, but over the short run and

567
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 5: with bad management, it could underperform right.

568
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 2: The train off there.

569
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 5: Of saying okay, well that's that's that's a bitcoin treasury company,

570
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 5: and then you've got bitcoin called storage where you know

571
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 5: you're going to track the performance a bitcoin one hundred

572
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 5: percent like uh, and you know is assuming you trust

573
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 5: yourself to self custody. I think that's also something bitcoin

574
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,479
Speaker 5: is maybe tend to miss is how many people out

575
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 5: there don't trust themselves to self custody a lot. And

576
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 5: you know, it's like the that that is we can

577
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 5: yell at them on social media and say like no,

578
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 5: you need to take responsibility for your financial life. But

579
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 5: realistically there's also diminishing martial orts where you can say, like,

580
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 5: all right, if I think there's a one percent probability

581
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 5: or ten percent in probability of sixty one or two happening,

582
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,959
Speaker 5: and so I'm going to have some bitcoin and cult storage.

583
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 5: But I think that there's like a ninety percent chance

584
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 5: of the government being controlled by bitcoiners and us going

585
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 5: in the opposite direction of like government's voluntarily adopting bitcoin

586
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 5: and not doing sixty one or two.

587
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 2: Then I want to be leveraged long bitcoin.

588
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 5: And so then it's just a expected value calculation based

589
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 5: on probability weightings of different outcomes. It's not like, oh,

590
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 5: I have a definite view what's going to happen in

591
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 5: the future.

592
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 3: But now you're asking people to like get educated and

593
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 3: take responsibility.

594
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, so that's that's asking a lot. That's asking a lot.

595
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 3: So speaking of leverage long the best way to make

596
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 3: money and the treasury companies, you had a debate with

597
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 3: Jim Chinos, Yeah, talking about this this entire topic. Right,

598
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 3: So he's shortened micro strategy buying bitcoin. It's kind of

599
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 3: worked out for him so far in the short term.

600
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 3: I think about Simon Senek's book The Infinite Game, and

601
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 3: it's like Bitcoin's the infinite game, and if you're playing

602
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 3: these short term games, these finite games, you could probably lose.

603
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 3: But he's been righting there in the short term. In

604
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 3: the long term, why is he wrong? And why do

605
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 3: you think these companies should outperform bitcoin?

606
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 2: So this is a fantastic question.

607
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 5: First of all, I would question whether he's right in

608
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 5: the short term or not, because in the first five

609
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 5: minutes of the debate he mentions that he's constantly having

610
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 5: to go buy bitcoin to maintain his head because Sailor

611
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 5: is increasing bitcoin per share and even.

612
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 4: Though the price of bitcoin, even the price of MSTR

613
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 4: is going down.

614
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 5: Right, So to really short end af you have to

615
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 5: maintain a constant offset to the bitcoin.

616
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 2: Per share that Sailor has.

617
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 5: Okay, And when I hear any kind of trader come

618
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 5: to me and say, hey, my trade makes sense as

619
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 5: long as I'm adding more capital to it, I'm scratching

620
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 5: my head of like, well, that sounds like you're losing money, right,

621
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 5: and that you're filling in the gap.

622
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 4: Isn't a short in the fiat price of MSTR, though?

623
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 5: Why would you have to add more bitcoin in his

624
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 5: bitcoin long?

625
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 4: Oh, in the bitcoin long in order.

626
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 5: To maintain the same ratio of long bitcoin to short bitcoin,

627
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 5: so that the only factor.

628
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 2: Is MNAV multiple.

629
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 5: Okay, right, So over time that MV multiple is being

630
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 5: monetized into BTC per share, both through common stock issuance

631
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 5: that is a creative and through fixed income instruments, whether

632
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 5: it's convertible notes or preferreds and so over the short term, yes, okay,

633
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 5: I'll concede that you can have and I can see

634
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,879
Speaker 5: that this in the debate. You can have short term

635
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 5: MNAV expansion and contraction. We saw it in fact in

636
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 5: twenty two sailors went below one x, so that without

637
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 5: a doubt you can have based on various market conditions, right,

638
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 5: namely that I think m NAV is a function of momentum,

639
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:23,840
Speaker 5: volatility and sentiment. Right, So if bitcoin's on our ripop,

640
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 5: it's gonna like MNAV has an opportunity to expand Bitcoin's

641
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 5: going sideways and it's not volatile, then I would absolutely

642
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 5: expect mn AF to compress. But to me, the main

643
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,720
Speaker 5: question of the debate was really about is the equally

644
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 5: room MNAV greater than one x? And I think it is,

645
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 5: and we can debate about where it should be. I

646
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 5: think that ultimately it actually depends on what level of

647
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:54,399
Speaker 5: leverage the company achieves or is expected to achieve, right,

648
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 5: And that that's where equlibrim nab ought to be. And

649
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 5: then day to day it's obviously going to oscillate around

650
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 5: that because it's the trade off actually between like a

651
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 5: two x lever and ETF right, where day to day

652
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 5: it's going to have two x BTC performance on up

653
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 5: and down. But then when you start zooming out to

654
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:21,760
Speaker 5: like monthly and yearly, there's that decay from the derivatives trading,

655
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 5: and so I see bitcoin treasury companies.

656
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 2: Being the inverse of that.

657
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 5: Day to day, they're not tracking two x bitcoin, but

658
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 5: over a long period of time, you're seeing fundamental value

659
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 5: correl from SATs per share increasing, Right.

660
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 3: And then the m NAB, as you said, is some

661
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 3: of it's just like a market premium, so sort of

662
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 3: like a pe ratio. Why is it thirty seven and

663
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 3: not forty two? Yeah, or thirty two, And so that's

664
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 3: sort of like where the market sort of puts that

665
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 3: premium based off of that. So when you have higher

666
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 3: bitcoin volatility and then they're mapping out where they think

667
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 3: that leverage could be over a long period of time,

668
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 3: people want to pay more for it, correct, right, and

669
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 3: in a time of compressing volatility or price cline, then

670
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 3: they're willing to pay less for it.

671
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:03,359
Speaker 2: That's right, that's right.

672
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 5: And I think it's really amazing because like if I

673
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 5: go back to like the days of margin trading at Kraken,

674
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 5: like the idea that you could so you know, you

675
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 5: have a leverage long position inside of an account, the

676
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:18,840
Speaker 5: fact that you could sell the equity in that position

677
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 5: or buy the equity in that position and not have

678
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 5: the liquidation risk, Well, I think that we're reaching a

679
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 5: you know, a point where that it's it's very attractive

680
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 5: from like thinking about the speculative attack where historically, and

681
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 5: this is what I wrote in twenty fourteen, is that

682
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 5: like people would borrow against other assets to buy bitcoin,

683
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 5: but the that's suboptimal because those other assets have a

684
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 5: lower return on an investment capital than bitcoin does. So

685
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 5: the ideal would always be that you're borrowing against bitcoin

686
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 5: to buy more bitcoin, but that hasn't been impossible up

687
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 5: until now.

688
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 2: I would argue that, and.

689
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 5: There's still like inefficiencies. So for example, like ideally the

690
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 5: dividend payments on preferreds would be tax deductible, just like

691
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 5: interest expensive TAC subductible set. I still think there's like

692
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 5: and that we'd get rid of capital gains, Like there's

693
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:29,240
Speaker 5: still like constraints on the on the leveraging up against bitcoin,

694
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 5: but it's getting better and better, and I think that

695
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:34,720
Speaker 5: it's getting better for corporates and I think that it's

696
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 5: actually going to get better for individuals as well. Once

697
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 5: the like you can post bitcoin at JP Morgan Chase

698
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 5: and just get a line of credit against it like

699
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 5: you would a mortgage at you know, five percent interest

700
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 5: rate for thirty years.

701
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 2: Right.

702
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, if we think out five or ten years in

703
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 3: the future, we have asset heavy businesses, so insurance companies, banks,

704
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 3: oil companies, et cetera typically trade in a one to

705
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 3: two times m NAV and sometimes they'll maybe get to

706
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,399
Speaker 3: a three and sometimes they go below, depend on sort

707
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 3: of what's going on, which is kind of what these are, right,

708
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 3: asset heavy businesses. Do you think that with reclassifying reclassifying income,

709
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 3: for example, bitcoin continues to go up, you know, hits

710
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 3: a million dollars in five, six, seventy or something like that,

711
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 3: do you think we start to rethink what capital and

712
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 3: what income is and they start trading more like a

713
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 3: pe ratio maybe much higher or do you think they

714
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 3: stay sort of in that like one to two times

715
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 3: m NAV asset heavy business that we see over like

716
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:35,320
Speaker 3: a five tenure window.

717
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think that you know, being levers wanting bitcoin,

718
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 5: like first of all, they're going to buy design potentially hopefully.

719
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 8: Maybe we'll see be more volatile than bitcoin, right, so.

720
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 4: We'll they are right now.

721
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, and so I think that you know, that's going

722
00:39:55,000 --> 00:40:01,399
Speaker 5: to be it's really challenging because of this like GameStop,

723
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 5: meme stock like uh, a time we live in where

724
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 5: uh there's maybe less fundamental research happening in the retail

725
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 5: community than there ought to be, but when it does happen, like, uh,

726
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 5: it's very high quality and the high signal. Right, and

727
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 5: so I think that the uh, there won't really be

728
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 5: an equilibrium on the m n AFF like it's just

729
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 5: gonna that's gonna be volatile. Nafs are gonna be volatile.

730
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 5: But what's really interesting is that from a bitcoin perspective,

731
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 5: they're gonna sorb all the volatility and so strangely enough,

732
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:46,720
Speaker 5: like I think they were in a new new era

733
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 5: of bitcoin price formation where on the way up, like

734
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 5: bitcoin treasury companies have more resources to buy bitcoin, and

735
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,240
Speaker 5: then on the way down, they're not pay ex selling.

736
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 2: There's holding right right, they're sitting on their hands, and

737
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 2: which we really haven't seen yet. We haven't seen anyone

738
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 2: like really blow up.

739
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 5: Uh you know, knock on wood that that doesn't happen,

740
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 5: because I want everyone to succeed in this space. But uh,

741
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 5: you know, the even if we look at like uh

742
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:26,879
Speaker 5: uh mstr and let's just like draw the insane argument, right,

743
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 5: Let's say they get to like eighty percent leverage on

744
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 5: the perpetual preferres uh and that bitcoin crashes and they're

745
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:36,400
Speaker 5: like basically underwater on it.

746
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 2: Like, I still don't think that.

747
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 5: It's in their best self interest to liquidate the bitcoin.

748
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 5: And so I think that there's like, uh, at a

749
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 5: less than one XM and AF, the management team and

750
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 5: the board can credibly go to the public and say,

751
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 5: we think bitcoin is fundamentally undervalued and we're going to

752
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 5: continue to hold it because of that. And so I

753
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 5: think that there's like a countercyclical force to bitcoin treagery companies.

754
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 5: Even when their stock is doing poorly and m navs

755
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:16,240
Speaker 5: are compressing across the industry, they're actually either holding bitcoin

756
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 5: or continuing to accumulate it.

757
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, as long as they can hold it. I remember

758
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 3: Sailor saying, we've been Prague a few months ago, and

759
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 3: someone said, what's the worst that can happen? He said,

760
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 3: the worst that can happen is we never raise any

761
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 3: more money ever again. And we're one hundred billion dollar

762
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 3: company growing at sixty percent a year. And to your point, right,

763
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 3: there could be these bear markets. But to your point right,

764
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 3: if we're not forced to sell the bitcoin, the stock

765
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 3: can take a hit. Let it take a hit, give

766
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 3: me a year or two, and we can kind of

767
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 3: get it back. I think that's what you're saying, if

768
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 3: you're able to withstand and kind of and hold through

769
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 3: that period.

770
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 5: It also gets back to like the argument of like

771
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 5: and Chaino's pointing this out. I was like, Okay, so

772
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 5: strategy has been going to do great as long as

773
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 5: Bitcoin's price keeps going up.

774
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 4: You have to believe in that, right, And I.

775
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 5: Look at Bitcoin's fundamentals and they've never been stronger. And

776
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 5: so I'm like, the only argument against like getting back

777
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 5: to like one hundred percent cager that it was at,

778
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 5: you know, five ten years ago is basically just that

779
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 5: it's gotten so big that now it's a two trillion

780
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 5: dollar asset class, and so it's going to require massive

781
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 5: inflows to you know, get to that. But I still

782
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 5: think that even if we fall short of a hundercent

783
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:34,320
Speaker 5: cager and we land a fifty percent or forty percent

784
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 5: or thirty percent, that's still greater than the cost of

785
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 5: capital in uh FIAT markets. And so I think that

786
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:50,399
Speaker 5: the yeah, the arb there is intact, but I think

787
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:54,320
Speaker 5: that it's more likely based on the fundamentals, that Bitcoin

788
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 5: is going to surprise to the upside than to the

789
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 5: downside going forward.

790
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 3: So the give in the law of large numbers. The

791
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 3: bigger bigcoin gets, the harder it is to kind of

792
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,320
Speaker 3: continue to have that explosive keg. But when you overlay

793
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 3: like a technology like s curve intol, you can see we're.

794
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 4: Accelerating to that adoption.

795
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 3: And you would also say two tillion is actually still

796
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 3: pretty small when you're tapping into one hundred and forty

797
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 3: five trillion dollar fixed income market. So certainly, yes, as

798
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,719
Speaker 3: it gets bigger, technically that's correct, but as we tap

799
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 3: these big pools of capital, things could speed up. Two

800
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 3: more things to ask because then we got to go

801
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:26,320
Speaker 3: to dinner.

802
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 4: So One, what.

803
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:32,439
Speaker 3: Are these extremely attractive fundamentals that you see and why

804
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 3: do you think potentially we could see the end of

805
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 3: that four year cycle in the bitcoin cycle you're talking about.

806
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 2: Yeah.

807
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,919
Speaker 5: So one is on the supply side, ninety five percent

808
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 5: of the bitcoin have been mined at this point, and

809
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 5: so with each having like the new issuance of bitcoin

810
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 5: entering into the market is just a smaller and smaller

811
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 5: percentage of the trading float out there, and so I

812
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 5: think that that is less and less impactful. Two, on

813
00:44:56,960 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 5: the demand side is the ETFs have only begun to

814
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 5: be rolled out, and so if you think about all

815
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 5: those financial advisors out there who are talking with their

816
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 5: clients about what percentage delllecate to bitcoin, like, all of

817
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,879
Speaker 5: those conversations getting to like one to five percent are

818
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 5: in the future in the next ten years, not in

819
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 5: the past, So massive amount of demand from that. And

820
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 5: three on still on the demand side, from a demographic perspective,

821
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 5: the massive wealth transfer that's going to happen through inheritance

822
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 5: from boomers essentially to younger generations over the next ten

823
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:41,360
Speaker 5: to twenty years. It's just it's astronomical trillions of dollars

824
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 5: and so incrementally a lot of those dollars that are

825
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,919
Speaker 5: going to flow into bitcoin. And so I think that

826
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 5: those are the three big trends that even if you

827
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 5: look outside of like corporate adoption and software adoption, like

828
00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:01,800
Speaker 5: if I just look at flows from ETFs plus plus

829
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 5: from demographics, they were looking at a multi decade pull

830
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 5: market in front of us.

831
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would definitely agree with all those. I would

832
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 3: also add that I think that the four yer having

833
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 3: cycle just so happened to coincide with the four year

834
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 3: global liquidity cycle and the four year ism business cycle,

835
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 3: and I think those are really.

836
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:22,040
Speaker 4: The dog that wags the tael.

837
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 3: So when you look at the global liquidity cycle, I

838
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:27,800
Speaker 3: think one we can see from the banking collapse in

839
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:31,240
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three, there's like no appetite for a drawdown

840
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:34,439
Speaker 3: right now. Yeah, you have yelling and now you mentioned

841
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:35,240
Speaker 3: Ascent earlier.

842
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 4: They've continued just to load the front end of the bills.

843
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 3: And so when you take away that debt maturity at

844
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 3: three to five year debt maturity and you load it

845
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:43,720
Speaker 3: all in the one year, you start to really limit

846
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 3: the impact of that liquidity and then on top of that,

847
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 3: you have rates just started being cut now, as opposed

848
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:51,799
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one, they were behind the curb and they

849
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:52,320
Speaker 3: are hiking.

850
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 4: Now they're just starting to cut. Right. Trump is patting

851
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 4: the table.

852
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 3: He wants rates three points lower than that he gets

853
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 3: usually what he once. He's going to replace the FED

854
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 3: chair in a couple months from now. We'll probably be

855
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 3: cutting all the way through next year. And if the

856
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:07,799
Speaker 3: US is cutting, that gives cover to China and every

857
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 3: other central bank to start cutting on top of that.

858
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,000
Speaker 3: So certainly the cycle is intact.

859
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 4: Intel has proven otherwise.

860
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 3: But when you look at the macroeconomic picture, it looks

861
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 3: like we can accelerate all the way through next year.

862
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 2: What worries me about like and.

863
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 5: The US dollar monetary policy situation is said, it feels

864
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 5: like any gains we get in bitcoin from that are

865
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 5: going to be offset by the price of my stake.

866
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 8: At the supermarket increasing.

867
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,880
Speaker 2: And I feel like that way about like COVID. You

868
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:43,839
Speaker 2: know that COVID inflation period where it was like but no,

869
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:44,520
Speaker 2: but no.

870
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 3: Right, So from twenty twenty to now they increased in

871
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 3: US and two forty percent.

872
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, and homes are up forty percent, gases.

873
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:53,959
Speaker 3: Of forty percent, oils of forty percent.

874
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 4: Foods up thirty to forty percent.

875
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, well bitcoins up what.

876
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 4: I don't know if that percent so big point is

877
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,360
Speaker 4: much more sensitive to that liquidity.

878
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 5: But I still feel like that the the the marginal

879
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 5: demand from people trying to avoid inflation. Yeah, that that

880
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 5: can that can be material. I just I hope that

881
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 5: that's uh maybe maybe it's just uh rose colored or

882
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:28,880
Speaker 5: orange colored glasses of just hoping that like they don't

883
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 5: blow up the system, because ultimately, if we think about

884
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:36,920
Speaker 5: it from a societal perspective, like we can't take what

885
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 5: we have for granted. And uh, as much as we

886
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 5: want to be like anarcho capitalists, the reality is that

887
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 5: if if the system blows up, it's going to hurt

888
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:49,880
Speaker 5: a lot of people that had you know, they're not

889
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 5: the ones who decided to go off the gold standard

890
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:57,240
Speaker 5: or anything like that. And so, uh, but I agree

891
00:48:57,280 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 5: with you that we're entering into an easing things and

892
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 5: if we think about bitcoin versus the dollar, they arguably

893
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 5: should be increasing interest rates, not lowering them.

894
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:12,919
Speaker 3: At this point, stock markets, all time highs, low, unemployment, right,

895
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:16,320
Speaker 3: I would say, I mean one hundred percent. I remember

896
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 3: in two thousand and eight. I referenced that earlier and

897
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 3: how I got hammered in that. And I remember them

898
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 3: coming out with a billion dollar tart.

899
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 4: Build and I'm like, no, you can't do that.

900
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 3: No, and now seven hundred billions like nothing right part

901
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:33,360
Speaker 3: of me, and maybe it is insensitive is just like okay,

902
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:35,440
Speaker 3: just bring it now, right. But we did see in

903
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:37,839
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight was we had massive asset price

904
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:41,919
Speaker 3: and it's not inflation, it's appreciation. When consumer prices stayed

905
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 3: actually relatively low. So we could see actually, maybe it's

906
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 3: hopeful thinking. But where bitcoin is that liquidy sponge and

907
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 3: absorbs more of that asset price inflation, So maybe you

908
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 3: don't see houses going up as much as you did

909
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 3: in two thousand and eight, So maybe houses stay down

910
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:58,440
Speaker 3: a little bit, maybe assets stay down little bit. Bitcoin

911
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 3: absorbs more of that. Consumer prices could still say relatively low. Yeah,

912
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:05,320
Speaker 3: maybe that's that's hopeful thinking, and we'll see how that

913
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 3: plays out. Let's jump into the last question because we're

914
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 3: here in Washington, d C. My first time being here

915
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 3: on the helm by the way in Washington, d C.

916
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:17,360
Speaker 3: Talking about policy. So you referenced it sort of earlier

917
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:20,239
Speaker 3: with the A M L K y C. But you know,

918
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 3: I was I was mentioned to you before we started recording.

919
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:27,400
Speaker 3: I think that we should sort of be trying to

920
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:29,479
Speaker 3: keep the government and check one of the finding fathers

921
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:33,280
Speaker 3: that intended the Constitution to be as opposed to working

922
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,399
Speaker 3: with them the past laws that allow us what to do.

923
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:36,400
Speaker 4: I'm just curious.

924
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 3: You spent a lot of time with regulators in Texas

925
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 3: and now here. What do you think is the sort

926
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:44,720
Speaker 3: of approach and how should we as bitcoorners be thinking

927
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:46,800
Speaker 3: about and working with with with government.

928
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a great question.

929
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 5: So I think that first we have to kind of

930
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:59,359
Speaker 5: have some like North Star principles, right, Okay, we would

931
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 5: never or support anything that undermines self custody.

932
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 8: Running your own note mining, you know, whether it's at

933
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 8: home or a large facility.

934
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:12,320
Speaker 5: And by the way, self custody whether you're a plub,

935
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:15,359
Speaker 5: you know individual, your family, or your.

936
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 2: Church, or a giant mega corporation.

937
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 5: That you know wants or you know, a bank that

938
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 5: wants to be able to custody a bitcoin like, they

939
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 5: should be free to do that for their clients and

940
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:31,799
Speaker 5: for themselves. And so I think that that focus on

941
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 5: freedom like has to guide everything within that. And then

942
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 5: there's questions of like, well do we what do we

943
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:46,799
Speaker 5: prioritize on a tactical level given the game of politics, right,

944
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 5: And I think that we always want to be moving

945
00:51:50,040 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 5: the ball down the field away from banning bitcoin. And

946
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:57,760
Speaker 5: so I feel like that's the strongest argument, for example,

947
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:02,000
Speaker 5: for the strategic Bitcoin reser, is that's one more thing

948
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 5: where we get it, you know, ten yards down further field,

949
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 5: where AOC or Gavin Newso or whatever Democrat gets elected

950
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 5: as president in the year twenty thirty two after JD

951
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 5: Vance's second term and they cheat again or something anyway,

952
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 5: but that's get too political that yeah, they've got to undo,

953
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:30,360
Speaker 5: they've got to undo wins rather than score goals, right,

954
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 5: And so I think that we also want to make

955
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 5: sure that the debate is debating what is the value

956
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 5: of bitcoin, like are we bullsh on bitcoin or not?

957
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:48,239
Speaker 5: Versus the debate of should we ban bitcoin or not?

958
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 5: And so it's almost like a denial of service attack

959
00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 5: of like we want to advocate for policies proactively so

960
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 5: that we keep them tied up and not keep them

961
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 5: on their heels. Right, Right, there's there's a saying here

962
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 5: in d C of if you're not at the table, you're.

963
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 2: On the menu. And so you want to be in

964
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:09,319
Speaker 2: those rooms. Yeah, and you want to be.

965
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:15,719
Speaker 5: Zealously advocating for bitcoin and for the bitcoin community and

966
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 5: for the whole ecosystem, because if you're not telling the story,

967
00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 5: your enemies are telling the story about you know, and

968
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 5: they have right, They've they spent many years talking about

969
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:32,040
Speaker 5: the environmental devastation of bitcoin mining, all the criminal activity

970
00:53:32,080 --> 00:53:36,359
Speaker 5: happening on bitcoin, all all of this fud that we

971
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 5: have to push back on. Otherwise, if we take everything

972
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:42,719
Speaker 5: for granted, it's kind of like a metaphor of like

973
00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 5: another sports metaphor soccer name.

974
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 2: Okay, so got to.

975
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 5: Like him national team, like FIFA champions versus five year

976
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 5: old like you know, kids soccer.

977
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:59,920
Speaker 2: And you could say, well, obviously the FIFA team's gonna win.

978
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:03,319
Speaker 5: They don't even need to play, and then you know,

979
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:05,759
Speaker 5: the kids score goals and then the kids win. Right,

980
00:54:05,800 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 5: the FIFA team still has to go out on the

981
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,719
Speaker 5: field and kick the ball into the goal. It's not

982
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:12,839
Speaker 5: enough for them to sit on the bench and say, well,

983
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:14,919
Speaker 5: we're obviously better than them on paper, so we don't

984
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:16,839
Speaker 5: actually even need to play right. And so that's where

985
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 5: I think like, even though we know bitcoin's going to succeed,

986
00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:23,840
Speaker 5: that only happens by us doing things. It doesn't happen

987
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:27,479
Speaker 5: from us, like you know, just you know, taking cheap

988
00:54:27,480 --> 00:54:28,240
Speaker 5: shots on Twitter.

989
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:30,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're responsible to go build the world that we want.

990
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 3: And I've challenged a lot of bigcoiners with that. You

991
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:34,560
Speaker 3: think you're just going to go hoddle and the whole

992
00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 3: world's going to get built for you and then you're

993
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 3: going to emerge one day. It's like not going to

994
00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:38,359
Speaker 3: happen that way.

995
00:54:38,440 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 5: So or or they're free writing on the efforts of others,

996
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:44,959
Speaker 5: which I'm like, that's fine, Like, you know, I don't

997
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:46,840
Speaker 5: know that you want to tell your grandkids about it,

998
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 5: but that's fine.

999
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, all right, Pierre, we're going to wrap it

1000
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 3: up host a Bitcoin for Corporations. You talk about this

1001
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:58,239
Speaker 3: all the time. New independent director at Strive Asset Management. Again,

1002
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 3: congratulations of that bitcoin bond co company. You don't have

1003
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 3: anything to announce on that yet, but we're going to

1004
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:05,719
Speaker 3: keep an eye on that. Anything else people should be

1005
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:06,360
Speaker 3: paying attention to.

1006
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,520
Speaker 2: Uh, the Satoshi knacametoans too, of course.

1007
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, I encourage everyone to go check that out and

1008
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 5: to just go down the rabbit hole.

1009
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:17,359
Speaker 4: Okay, that's it. Thanks thanks for having me on Mark

1010
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:17,840
Speaker 4: Cool