1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,320 Speaker 1: But knowledge to work and grow your business with c 2 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 1: i T. From transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. C i 3 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: T offers commercial lending, leasing, and treasury management services for 4 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: small and middle market businesses. Learn more at c i 5 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: T dot com put Knowledge to Work. Hello, and welcome 6 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe 7 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 1: wisen Pal and I'm sad to say that this week 8 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 1: my co host Tracy Alloway is uh out. She's currently traveling, 9 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:41,959 Speaker 1: so it's just going to be me this week. So 10 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 1: this is where normally she would interject something and then 11 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 1: we'd have like some banter, but I'm not really good 12 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: at solo banter, so I'm not even gonna try to 13 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: say anything funny or coy. I'm just gonna jump right 14 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: to the topic. Unless you've been living under a rock, 15 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 1: you've probably heard about the incredible frenzy that we've seen 16 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 1: of late in a crypto assets, cryptocurrencies, whether we were 17 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: talking about Bitcoin or Ethereum or I c O S 18 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 1: or all these things just NonStop incredible moves these days. 19 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,119 Speaker 1: So it really is sort of, uh, you know, it's 20 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:22,480 Speaker 1: time that we talked about them here, and so today 21 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 1: on the podcast, we have a guest who's very well 22 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,320 Speaker 1: positioned to talk about just what the heck is going 23 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,839 Speaker 1: on in this area. His name is Chris Bernisky. He's 24 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 1: the blockchain products lead at art invest which is a 25 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: asset management company that has E t f s and 26 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: they actually are one of the few firms that actually 27 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: has exposure to bitcoin. So he is going to help us, 28 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: uh sort out just what's going on right now? What 29 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: is it where we are? Is this a bubble? What's 30 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: going on? Why are people so excited about this area? Chris, 31 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining us, Thanks for having 32 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: me so. First of all, before we get into this, 33 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: what is our convest Our Convest is an investment manager. 34 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: We were started in January, actually, the same month that 35 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: Ethereum was announced by Vitalic. Right now we're approaching about 36 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: a billion in assets. But the key to ARC is 37 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 1: taking the open source software development paradigm and applying it 38 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: to Wall Street investment management and research. So whereas most 39 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 1: investment managers keep their trades and their research close to 40 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 1: their chest, we actually share all of that um because 41 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 1: it allows our THESS to evolve more quickly and it 42 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 1: abus trust within us. Tell us about your products, you 43 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: have e t F. We primarily have e ts UM 44 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: and they focus solely on disruptive innovation, and as a 45 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: thematic investment manager, they focus on different themes. So, for example, 46 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 1: we have our Next Generation Internet ETF, which has themes 47 00:02:55,000 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: like machine learning, cloud computing, Internet of things, and cryptoasts 48 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 1: and so for example, in that e t F, bitcoin 49 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 1: is actually a number one position. Uh. And then we've 50 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: got other e t F like genomics or industrial innovation, 51 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: so on and so forth. We do have a fintech 52 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 1: mutual fund in Japan, and we do some separately managed accounts. 53 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 1: So we're a broad purpose investment manager. Now what's your background? 54 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: You're talking? Sorry I keep forgetting the name of your title, 55 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 1: but that's probably because it's unusual, you know, it's not 56 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 1: most people blockchain projects lead. You can think of me 57 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: as the only by side analysts to focus on crypto 58 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 1: assets with a flavor of business development in there. So 59 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: how did you become the blockchain products lead? Where? What's 60 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: your background? How did you become the person who would 61 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: analyze these analyze these assets? Well, as with much of life, 62 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: is a chance. Uh. But uh? In college in two 63 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: thousand eleven, two thousand twelve, Uh, Bitcoin across the radar. 64 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 1: I was a student at Stanford at the time, pretty 65 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 1: tech focused environment and are exploring, uh, this brave new world, 66 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 1: and that took me down a bit of a rabbit hole. 67 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: I remember looking with friends at mining equipment on Craigslist 68 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: and these racks of servers, and we briefly flirted with 69 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,719 Speaker 1: the idea of having a mining operation. But you know, 70 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: at the time, I didn't dig deeply enough to dissociate 71 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: bitcoin from what was the major application at the time, 72 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 1: which was the Silk Road, and so I interpreted much 73 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 1: of what was going on as um illegal and UH 74 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: didn't necessarily have the courage at the time to leap in. 75 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 1: UH forgot about bitcoin for a few years. Joined ARC, 76 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: and at that time, our director of research had invested 77 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 1: in bitcoin early on. It was something that we knew 78 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 1: was going to be important, and so picked up the 79 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,159 Speaker 1: ball and ran with it, and UH that eventually led 80 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,040 Speaker 1: me here. You characterize yourself as a by side in 81 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: the list, and that raises an interesting question, which is 82 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: that when you hear people talk about any of these 83 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: crypto assets like yeah, but you know, how how do 84 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 1: you value them? What is the fundamental value you know, 85 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: it's with most things we have, uh, you know, with stocks, obviously, 86 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 1: people have developed all kinds of models for valuing of 87 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: stock based on earnings and cash flow and growth. And 88 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 1: with commodities the cost of mining versus the demand, and 89 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: with currencies, things like purchasing power parity, and so all 90 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: these established models that exist for the you know, the 91 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: asset classes that we've been familiar with for a long time, 92 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: and then people look at something like ethereum or bitcoin 93 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 1: or you know, now they're you know, they're hundreds of 94 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 1: these coins out there, and they don't have any idea 95 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 1: how to even go about saying, oh, this is a 96 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 1: fair price, so this is undervalued or this is overvalued. 97 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: So how do you think about that question? It's it's 98 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: a great question. And if we think of this as 99 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 1: a new asset class, it follows that we will have 100 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 1: new valuation techniques. And it's big part of actually what 101 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 1: I spend my time focusing on. I think of it 102 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: as a combination of current utility value plus discounted expected 103 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 1: utility value UM. And to give you an example of 104 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: what I mean by that, we can take bitcoin UM. 105 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: A lot of people talk about people using bitcoin for remittances, 106 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 1: and I know of a number of companies using bitcoin 107 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:29,160 Speaker 1: Fermances whose volumes are growing ten month over month, which 108 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 1: is hyper growth. If we take the remittances market, it's 109 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: a roughly five hundred billion dollar market, and assume at 110 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: some future date bitcoin will take ten percent of that market. 111 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 1: Certainly at that point the market will be a little bigger, 112 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: but we'll run with this for now. So ten percent 113 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: of a five billion dollar market means bitcoin would have 114 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 1: to store fifty billion in value in that year. Now 115 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: you have to also slap a velocity on it, velocity 116 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: of money for how often that asset's going to turn over, 117 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: So velocity of the US dollars five. So we did 118 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 1: what what is the five? What's being measured for the velocity? 119 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: It is the number of times that currency is turning 120 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: over per year to facilitate the transaction cockits and services. 121 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 1: So if we say bitcoin's going to be roughly five 122 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: as well, we take that fifty billion in value transfer 123 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: that bitcoin will facilitate divided by five to get ten 124 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: billion in stored value that year that bitcoin will need 125 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: to have in order to facilitate that use case. So, 126 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: just to back up, if you wanted to do fifty 127 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 1: billion worth of remittances based on the sort of some 128 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: expectation of how many times a typical bitcoin would move 129 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: in a year, you would need Bitcoin would need to 130 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 1: be worth ten billions, would need to store facilitate that much, 131 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: facilitate that much of a market, Yes, and only for 132 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 1: the remittances use case. Right, Um, And then what we 133 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: can do is we can start to stack different use cases. Right. 134 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 1: We look at the globe a financial gold market roughly 135 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: two and a half trillion. If bitcoin we're to take 136 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 1: one percent of that, that means it would have to 137 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: store twenty five billion in value for that use case. 138 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: And so you can see how we can start to 139 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: stack these different requirements for stored value. To get an 140 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: idea of how what I call the network value of bitcoin, 141 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 1: which is analogous to to market cap for stocks and uh. 142 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: The reason I say current utility value versus discounted expected 143 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 1: utility value is the market price of this asset is 144 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 1: comprised of what people are currently using it for plus 145 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: the expectations for its use. And so for any expectations 146 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 1: of its use, we have to discount that back to 147 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: the present. So so combining these two values. We can 148 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 1: get the current market price of these assets interesting real quickly. 149 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:53,839 Speaker 1: You're publicly each traded e t F to do have 150 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 1: exposure to bitcoin? How do you get that? We get 151 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: it through Gray Scales Bitcoin Investment Trust UM, which is 152 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: a trust that tracks to roughly one tenth the value 153 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:07,719 Speaker 1: of bitcoin. Now, with the way that the trust is 154 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: set up UM, at least the publicly traded part, which 155 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:14,439 Speaker 1: is ticker GBTC trades o t c q X over 156 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: the counter markets, it doesn't have a functionality to meet 157 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,320 Speaker 1: supply and demand, and so it tends to trade at 158 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: a significant premium, which is something investors should be aware of. 159 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: So that has grown to be UM a number one 160 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 1: position in two of our A t F s are 161 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: Internet e TF air kW and our overall Innovation e TF. 162 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: But knowledge to work and grow your business with c 163 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: I T from transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. C I 164 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: T offers commercial lending, leasing, and treasury management services for 165 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: small and middle market businesses. Learn more at c I 166 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:59,440 Speaker 1: T dot com Put Knowledge to work. All right, let's 167 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: swim gears for a second, because you know, people are 168 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,199 Speaker 1: maybe heard of bitcoin for a while, and there's obviously 169 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,319 Speaker 1: been tons said about it, and it's the old man 170 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: in the room. Yeah, exactly. The thing that everyone is 171 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: talking about and curious about and asking questions about these 172 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,440 Speaker 1: days are these things called I c o s. And 173 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 1: that's really what I want to talk about UM initial 174 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: coin offerings. It sounds like I p o s, but 175 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 1: it's one letter different, regrettably. What what are they? You 176 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 1: can think of them as the combination of crowd funding, 177 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: which we all learned about through Kickstarter UM plus blockchain technology. 178 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: So Kickstarter coincidentally started the same year that bitcoin launched, 179 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: two thousand nine, and that taught us about how we 180 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 1: can use capital from the crowds to fund projects. And 181 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 1: then blockchain technology basically allows the decentralized storing and transfer 182 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:04,119 Speaker 1: of value. And what we've been having at the intersection 183 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 1: of these two is assets that are similar to bitcoin 184 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: but perform different use cases. So atherorem is something that 185 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: we will we will end up talking about, I'm sure. 186 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 1: So that's a decentralized world computer UM, and it uses 187 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 1: the blockchain in order to facilitate value transfer. In order 188 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: to pay for that computer, and in order to get 189 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:28,959 Speaker 1: that project off the ground, there was a crowd sale, 190 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: so because blockchains are really good at storing and transferring 191 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 1: this value, people are natively using that functionality to bootstrap 192 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 1: capital for their projects. So let's walk through how what 193 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 1: kind of project it would be and how you would 194 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: raise one would go about raising money through an I 195 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,559 Speaker 1: c O. Let's, you know, create a fictitious example or 196 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: a real example. We can use a real example. Yeah, 197 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 1: let's do that. A few weeks back, I participated in 198 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 1: a crowd sale known as er gun. And what Aragon does. 199 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,079 Speaker 1: We'll walk through sort of my process right when I'm 200 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 1: when I'm figuring out, Okay, am I going to participate 201 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 1: in this? First thing I do is okay? What is 202 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 1: the use case? Is this survival use case? What Aragon does? 203 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 1: You're gonna have to hang with me here. I'm just 204 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:22,679 Speaker 1: gonna listen. Aragon U is a platform on top of Ethereum, 205 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: uses Ethereum's decentralized world computer, and it basically provides um 206 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: and out of the box system in order for corporations 207 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: to run on top of the theorem. So provides cap 208 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 1: table accounting, payroll management, things like that. And so what 209 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: it's gonna be used for long term is facilitating decentralized 210 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: autonomous organizations. So Ethereum is a basically is a crypto. 211 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: It's a current cryptocurrency, but commodity crypto commodity that has 212 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: all this You're called it a decentralized world computer upon 213 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 1: which you can run new application, exact companies and stuff. 214 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 1: And you participated in the initial coin offering of a 215 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 1: company that runs on top of ethereum, whose business is 216 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 1: going to be facilitating other companies to run on top 217 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 1: of ethereum. Yes, the only thing I would change in 218 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 1: what you said, You've got to exactly correct is replacing 219 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 1: company with protocol. These aren't that they're not companies and 220 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 1: that they're not generating cash flows necessarily, they're facilitating through 221 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 1: software distributed software. And so Arragon is not a company, 222 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 1: it's a protocols protocol. Does that mean that there's not 223 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: like a corporate entity associated with it? Now, this is 224 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 1: something of experimentation UM. Different projects are experimenting with having 225 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:59,839 Speaker 1: foundations or are different UM entities that won't necessarily classify 226 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 1: as a cash generating company UM in order to support 227 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 1: the development of the protocol. But there's not going to 228 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 1: be you know, quarterly earnings calls on revenue and earnings 229 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 1: and Eve done all these things. That was step one. 230 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,599 Speaker 1: So that's evaluating long term, do I think this is 231 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 1: going to be a viable project. Then look into the team, 232 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: great pair of developers behind this project, and then we 233 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 1: get more into logistics. And in order to participate in 234 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 1: a lot of these sales, you have to send either 235 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 1: bitcoin or ether to an address. And uh, let's let's 236 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: say we're using ether in this example. So what I'm 237 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: doing there is I am sending Ether that I have, 238 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: which stores value, right, and sending it to an address 239 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 1: that lives on Ethereum's blockchain, and in depositing that Ether 240 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: in that address, basically that address records. Okay, this other address, 241 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: which represents Chris, is entitled to a certain number of 242 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: these units of Aragon, which is the ticker an team, 243 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: and so in that process they're able to accept in 244 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: mass capital um from the outside world that is then 245 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 1: programmatically exchanged into shares of their of their new protocol these. Okay, 246 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 1: so now you have these coins from the Aragon. What 247 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 1: are they? What do you do with them? What are 248 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: they for? How do they create value for you? Um? Well, 249 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: there there are those two aspects of value, right. The 250 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: current utility value versus the discount and expected utility value. UM. 251 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 1: The UH. The reason for Aragon. One of the main 252 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 1: reasons for Aragon to have a native token is actually 253 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 1: UH to facilitate a decentralized court. Um. So if you 254 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: have these organizations right running on top of Aragon, let's 255 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 1: say there's disputes, um, Since they're decentralized organizations, they won't 256 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: necessarily go to the courts we think of them. UM, 257 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 1: they will actually go to the masses and let the 258 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: masses decide upon what is the truth or not the truth, 259 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 1: what is right or wrong, and pay out using the 260 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 1: native Arragon token to the people that perform that service. 261 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 1: So we've gotten very abstract. Yeah, no, I know, but 262 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 1: that's right because you know, I think where it's seventeen 263 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 1: and everyone's got an open mind and people realize. So 264 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: it's okay, we can keep going down this. But it 265 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: is pretty abstract. It is abstract. Now, these courts are 266 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: they like and you say that people are going to decide? 267 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 1: Are there going to be literal votes? Is there people 268 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: on a jury and who will participate? And is it 269 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 1: like something like the algorithm decided? So decentralized votes, right, 270 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: UM a broad set of actors that anyone can can 271 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 1: participate in. If you have the token, yes, if you're 272 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: involved within the network, you will get paid out in 273 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 1: the token UM for for voting correctly UM. And so 274 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: what happens over time is as more organizations build on 275 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:14,439 Speaker 1: top of Arragon, there will be more demand for that 276 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 1: token for these conflict resolution use cases. But there's also 277 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 1: because this is open source software, it can evolve over time, 278 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: there can be further use cases that are built in 279 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 1: that require that and you need So let's say I'm 280 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 1: a business and so you know, let's they go to 281 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: the very end consumer some business and like, oh, this 282 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: seems could write there. You said, the Arragon is positioning 283 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 1: itself as a service to businesses. Right, what's a kind 284 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: of business that might benefit from this UM. Well, this 285 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:48,719 Speaker 1: idea of a decentralized autonomous organization, it's not like a 286 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: typical entity as we get it now. It would be 287 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:55,679 Speaker 1: a sort of new kind of well organization's UM it 288 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 1: is taking your typical organization. Let's take an insurance company, right, 289 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 1: So an insurance company is really a number of policies 290 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,880 Speaker 1: and procedures, right, a number of If this, then that statements. 291 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:13,199 Speaker 1: That's what claims management is. And what's happening is we 292 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: are having um, these processes be written in software, so 293 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 1: you can actually have a waterfall of decisions, right UM. 294 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 1: If let's say, if Christ misses his flight, UM pay 295 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: him thirty dollars. If he doesn't miss his flight, he 296 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,360 Speaker 1: doesn't get paid anything. But it can become more complex 297 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 1: than that, more conditional. And so these organizations, these processes 298 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 1: are being written in code. And the reason it's called 299 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: the decentralized autonomous organization is just as we have autonomous vehicles, 300 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: these organizations are expected to in part run themselves, and 301 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: so in running themselves, they need to be on top 302 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 1: of a platform that helps facilitate that and interfaces beneath 303 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 1: that with ethereum, which is, you know, dividing the compute 304 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 1: power to process all of these these decisions. Here's a 305 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: question I have that als sounds pretty cool right now. 306 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: There's clearly a lot of uh, I think when I 307 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 1: look at it, a lot of speculative fast money coming 308 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 1: into the space, people who are looking for to make 309 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 1: a get rich fast which is not necessarily an indictment 310 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 1: because they've always that's always part of any industry, So 311 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 1: it doesn't necessarily mean bubble. I don't know, but there's 312 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,680 Speaker 1: clearly just a lot of people looking for flips, looking 313 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 1: for trades. Two questions A is anyone actually using these 314 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,439 Speaker 1: tokens yet in a or and do any of these 315 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 1: antionies actually exist where there's a real ecosystem for these 316 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 1: tokens or is it still all in basically in the 317 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 1: trading realm. Actually that's my first question. You know, are 318 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,160 Speaker 1: there any saying, oh, this is really here's an organization, 319 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,199 Speaker 1: or here's a protocol and people are really using it. UM. 320 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: A lot of these teams have what are called test nets, 321 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: where they have what you could think of as a 322 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:06,439 Speaker 1: minimum viable protocol UM that's in development, just as for 323 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: example with the Genomics company right something that's gone public, 324 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: they're running it through the process getting it to the 325 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 1: end market, the end consumer. And for Ethereum and the 326 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: apps decentralized apps that are being built on top of 327 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: it or protocols, a lot of those do not have 328 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 1: mainstream use as of yet. As you said, UM, there's 329 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 1: a lot of discounted expected utility value or speculative value 330 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,239 Speaker 1: to these assets. But what's key right now for me 331 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 1: when I look at something like ethereum, the users are 332 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:44,160 Speaker 1: the developers. It's it's not a mainstream application. My mom 333 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 1: or grandma is not going to be using it. It's 334 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 1: the developers and the developers, because this space is so young, 335 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 1: um are the ones that are building it out. You 336 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:53,679 Speaker 1: have a lot of people starting to talk about this 337 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 1: as Internet three point oh um. It took a while. 338 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: I mean, the Internet had its origins in nineteen packet switching, 339 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 1: so it takes a while to build these things out. 340 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:07,679 Speaker 1: Right now, we have mostly developers using ethereum. We've got 341 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: a lot of mainstream use cases for a bitcoin, I 342 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 1: would say increasingly so um, and over time there will 343 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 1: be more mainstream users, but right now they are definitely 344 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 1: mainstream speculators. There mains. I think that's a very well 345 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 1: pushed So there are mainstream speculators sort of everyday people, 346 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 1: or you know, even not many everyday people, but certainly 347 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 1: people saving enough to like figure out how the geeks speculating, 348 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 1: but nothing really you know, basically all of these projects 349 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 1: are still in the infancy in terms of actual uses. 350 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 1: Everything is largely in its infancy. I mean, if we 351 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 1: go back in time, so Toshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin 352 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: White Paper in late two eight, So the whole movement 353 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 1: is not even a decade old. And and and you 354 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 1: raise a good point where speculation lays the foundation for innovation. 355 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 1: When we look at you know, the railroad boom, or 356 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 1: when we look at, um the tech and telecom boom, 357 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,640 Speaker 1: we had a fiberglut. People build things out way too much. 358 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: They got ahead of themselves. And that's okay, um, it's 359 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 1: it's a predictable pattern we've seen over time. Another question 360 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: I have is could you get into a situation in 361 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: which the speculators discourage actual usage. In other words, it's 362 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 1: so it's perceived as being expensive. Let's say, you know, 363 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: I'm trying to let's say, do something more. I know 364 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,679 Speaker 1: that there's some of these, uh like these ones that 365 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 1: are trying to build prediction markets based on top of ethereum, 366 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,439 Speaker 1: which is something I've been looking into things well, you know, 367 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,679 Speaker 1: trying to do my research. But I'm interested. I've always 368 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 1: been interested in prediction markets and I think, you know, 369 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 1: it's interesting idea and I missed, you know, I wish 370 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: in trade were still around on some of these sides. 371 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 1: But on the other hand, like do I really want 372 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: to be Let's say I wanted to get involved in that. 373 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 1: Do I really want to pay up to get involved 374 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: in this prediction market or put my tokens at risk 375 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 1: if the tokens keep soaring in price, and I'd be 376 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: better off just holding them UM so really quick. The 377 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 1: prediction market thing, that's partially what underlies Aragon prediction market 378 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 1: to resolve disputes for companies UM now in terms of 379 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 1: the value of these tokens actually being debilitating to the 380 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 1: underlying utility of the protocol UM. It's something I've been 381 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: talking about with Joel manegro a lot um. Joel manegro 382 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 1: So he was the blockchain lead at Union Square Ventures. 383 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 1: UM clearly reputable firm. UH, and one of our concerns 384 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 1: is exactly as you said when you look at atherorum 385 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: right now. For example, the native token for ethereum ether. 386 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 1: The more that goes up in price, the more expensive 387 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,479 Speaker 1: it is in some ways to use the network, and 388 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,199 Speaker 1: so there needs to be a way UM and Ethereum 389 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 1: has tried to solve this with the dynamic exchange rate 390 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,680 Speaker 1: for the units that you pay to use UM. It's 391 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: it's world computer called US. So people are working on 392 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:06,919 Speaker 1: ways to dissociate UM the rise and value of the 393 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,199 Speaker 1: token from actually using the underlying network. So basically, in 394 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 1: other words, you don't want to have a situation where 395 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 1: let's say, you know, going back to what's the dispute, 396 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: what's the I c ou participate aragon aragon. So let's 397 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 1: say it costs x amount of what's the unit called 398 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,239 Speaker 1: is to just called an arragon T. All right, Let's say, uh, 399 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 1: it costs x amount of A and T for this 400 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: dispute resolution mechanism. You don't want a situation in which 401 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 1: suddenly the value goes up five x and it's suddenly 402 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 1: five x more expensive. You want to be able to 403 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 1: create a protocol so that the price drops accordingly with 404 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: the increase in value exactly. Now, what's what's nice about 405 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,359 Speaker 1: these things UM is as they accrue value, they do 406 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 1: bring new people on board, right, and there's more capital 407 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 1: UM in order to to to front the fund the 408 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 1: protocol development. So it is a balance UM. But you 409 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 1: struck at the heart of something that does concern me. 410 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 1: And when we when we think of how the VC 411 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:06,160 Speaker 1: world exists, right, vcs allocate capital for the long term 412 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,639 Speaker 1: in order to help these teams build out. If we 413 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 1: have too much capital sloshing back and forth between these 414 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 1: different protocols, that may actually hurt the value of what's 415 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 1: being built here. So this is something that's that's under development, 416 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 1: and I think teams are really focused on given the 417 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:25,240 Speaker 1: recent rise in speculation. All right, well, Chris Bernsky of 418 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: our convest thank you so much. This is a fascinating 419 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 1: sort of sci fi world and I think, uh, you know, 420 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 1: it's certainly very eye opening to me. I've done a 421 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 1: little bit of research into this, but hearing you describe 422 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 1: the layers upon layers and new kinds of entities, new 423 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 1: kinds of mechanisms is fascinating and regardless of whether we're 424 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 1: in a bubble or whatever. And I hate using that 425 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: word because when people, when media people use the word bubble, 426 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: they're always wrong. But um, it's still very intriguing to watch. 427 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 1: So thank you very much for coming on Brave New World. Yeah, exactly. 428 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:03,120 Speaker 1: That'll do it for this episode of the Odd Lodge podcast. 429 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 1: Because Tracy isn't here, there's no point for us to 430 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 1: uh have any banter at the end, So thanks for listening. 431 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me on Twitter at 432 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,159 Speaker 1: the Stalwart. You can find Tracy on Twitter at Tracy 433 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:20,159 Speaker 1: Alloway are wonderful producer? Sarah Patterson on Twitter at Sarah 434 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,120 Speaker 1: patt with two ts, and Chris are you on Twitter? 435 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter as well. What's your handle? A r 436 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 1: K blockchain? A r K blockchain? Check him out tweets 437 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: a bunch of fascinating stuff about this space, and you'll 438 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 1: probably learn a lot. Thanks for listening, but knowledge to 439 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,440 Speaker 1: work and grow your business with c i T from 440 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 1: transportation to healthcare to manufacturing. C i T offers commercial lending, leasing, 441 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 1: and treasury management services for small and middle market businesses. 442 00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,119 Speaker 1: Learn more at c i T dot com put knowledge 443 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 1: to work