Speaker 1: Hey everyone, I'm Pat fitz Morris here to give you
Speaker 1: my favorite NFL player props or Week thirteen. But before
Speaker 1: we get to my favorite player props, first, if you
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Speaker 1: get to the picks for Week thirteen, and we're going
Speaker 1: to start with Mike White, Jets backup quarterback. He lit
Speaker 1: up the Bears for three hundred and fifteen passing yards
Speaker 1: in week twelve, and now he gets to face an
Speaker 1: their NFC West, excuse me, NFC North team with the
Speaker 1: suspect pass defense. He heads up to Minneapolis to face
Speaker 1: the Vikings, who have given up a league high seven
Speaker 1: point eight yards per pass attempt this season, and the
Speaker 1: Vikings for the NFL's fifth worst opponent passer rating. Patriots
Speaker 1: QB Mac Jones lit up Minnesota for three hundred and
Speaker 1: eighty two yards on Thanksgiving nights, and four days before that,
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott completed twenty two of twenty five passes against
Speaker 1: the Vikings for two hundred and seventy six yards. So
Speaker 1: Vikings pass defense not good. Mike White has a good
Speaker 1: set of weapons. Jeff probably are not going to be
Speaker 1: real run heavy with Michael Carter nursing an ankle sprain,
Speaker 1: and the Vikings have some major issues at cornerback where
Speaker 1: Cam Danceler is on injured reserve and rookie second rounder
Speaker 1: Andrew Booth is out for the year within knee injury.
Speaker 1: So I like Mike White over two hundred and forty
Speaker 1: one point five passing yards. I also like Derrick Henry
Speaker 1: over eighty four point five rushing yards. And yeah, it
Speaker 1: seems like low hanging fruit to take the over on
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry rushing yardage. He has failed to clear this
Speaker 1: in two of his last three games, averaging just fifty
Speaker 1: nine point three rushing yards over that stretch. But is
Speaker 1: there any doubts the Titans are going to keep feeding
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry the rock. I mean, that's what they do
Speaker 1: on offense, let's face it. So Henry has cleared this
Speaker 1: number in seven of eleven games this season, and this
Speaker 1: week he's up against an Eagles defense that is much
Speaker 1: easier to run on than to throw on. Philadelphia is
Speaker 1: giving up five point four yards per pass attempts, that
Speaker 1: is tied with Denver for the lowest mark in the league,
Speaker 1: but they're giving up four point six yards per carry
Speaker 1: to running backs, so it's a little easier going on
Speaker 1: the ground against the Eagles than through the air. Last week,
Speaker 1: Packers running backs Aaron Jones and aj Dillon combined for
Speaker 1: twenty carries in one hundred and seven yards against the Eagles.
Speaker 1: The week before that, it was Jonathan Taylor running for
Speaker 1: eighty four yards. Back in week ten, it was Antonio
Speaker 1: Gibson and Brian Robinson the Commanders, combining for one hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty yards against Philly. And in week nine it
Speaker 1: was Texans rookie Damian Pierce stampeding the Eagles for one
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty nine rushing yards. So the Eagles can
Speaker 1: be had on the ground for sure, and we know
Speaker 1: what the Titans are going to do. They pound it
Speaker 1: with Derrick Henry. I like the over on eighty four
Speaker 1: point five rushing yards. One rushing under I like is
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley under seventy one point five rushing yards. And
Speaker 1: we kind of have seen the Giants running game breakdown
Speaker 1: over the last couple of weeks. It started in Week
Speaker 1: eleven with Barkley carrying fifteen times for twenty two yards
Speaker 1: against the Lions, and the Lions had been terrible against
Speaker 1: the run all season, so that was a cause for alarm.
Speaker 1: And then Thanksgiving Day against the cow Boys, Barkley eleven
Speaker 1: carries for thirty nine yards. So it seems pretty unlikely
Speaker 1: that the Giants are going to fix their running game
Speaker 1: problems against the Washington Commanders this week. The Commander's ranked
Speaker 1: fourth in DVA against the run and are allowing only
Speaker 1: seventy nine point eight rushing yards per game to running backs,
Speaker 1: seventh lowest total in the league. So Washington's good run
Speaker 1: defense against a slumping Giants run offense. Robert Woods under
Speaker 1: thirty six point five receiving yards. Woods has failed to
Speaker 1: hit this number in five of his last six games,
Speaker 1: and he's only produced forty or more receiving yards in
Speaker 1: two of eleven games this season. He has fallen behind
Speaker 1: Treylon Burks in the packing order and maybe even behind
Speaker 1: Nick Westbrookikine and some of the Titans tight ends. Two.
Speaker 1: Woods just not a big factor this year, and he
Speaker 1: has a tough Week thirteen matchup against the Eagles. Just
Speaker 1: mentioned this with the Derrick Henry total that the Eagles
Speaker 1: are much better against the pass than against the run.
Speaker 1: They have allowed the fifth fewest receiving yards to wide
Speaker 1: receivers this year, and look, the Eagles have a really
Speaker 1: tough pair of outside cornerbacks in Darius Slay and James Bradberry.
Speaker 1: Robert Woods has lined up in the slot just seventeen
Speaker 1: point three percent of the time this year. So the
Speaker 1: under on Robert Woods thirty six point five receiving yards.
Speaker 1: Corey Davis over thirty six point five receiving yards. Same
Speaker 1: numbers Robert Woods, but I like the over with Davis,
Speaker 1: and as noted earlier, the Vikings pass defense has really
Speaker 1: been bad this year. That's one of the reasons I
Speaker 1: like Davis to clear this relatively low bar. The Vikings
Speaker 1: are twenty seventh in DBOA against the pass, and they've
Speaker 1: given up a league high one and seventy three receiving
Speaker 1: yards to wide receivers. And as I mentioned, they have
Speaker 1: injury problems at cornerback with Cam Danzler and Andrew Booth
Speaker 1: both out. So should be noted that over the first
Speaker 1: six weeks of the season Corey Davis had averaged five
Speaker 1: point five catches and fifty eight point five yards per
Speaker 1: game before he sprained his NCL in Week seven. Davis
Speaker 1: just got back from that injury in Week eleven, didn't
Speaker 1: play a full snapchare in Week eleven. Last week twelve,
Speaker 1: he did play a full snapchair forty three snaps only
Speaker 1: one catch for nine yards in that gameer the just
Speaker 1: passing game smashed against the Bears, so kind of weird
Speaker 1: that Corey Davis didn't do much there. But with Davis
Speaker 1: getting a healthy snaphare against a bad Vikings defense, I
Speaker 1: really think this is a good percentage play for him
Speaker 1: to go over thirty six and a half yards. In
Speaker 1: two games last year that he played with Mike White,
Speaker 1: Davis had four catches for forty seven yards and five
Speaker 1: catches for ninety three yards. So take the over with
Speaker 1: Davis over thirty six point five receiving yards George Pickens
Speaker 1: over forty four point five receiving yards. Pickens has topped
Speaker 1: this number in two straight games, and he has a
Speaker 1: scrumptious Sweet thirteen matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed
Speaker 1: twy and forty receiving yards to wide receivers this season,
Speaker 1: the second highest total in the league, behind only the Vikings,
Speaker 1: and with Steelers running back Najie Harris dealing with an
Speaker 1: oblique injury, pretty unlikely the Steelers go run heavy in
Speaker 1: this one. Look, if you watch Pickens play this season,
Speaker 1: you know what a stud the rookie is and just
Speaker 1: how talented he is. Leverage that talent in a good
Speaker 1: matchup against the Falcons. Bet over forty four point five
Speaker 1: receiving yards for Pickins. And finally, Mike Gasiki, the Dolphins
Speaker 1: tight end under twenty one point five receiving yards in
Speaker 1: his last four games, Kasiki has been targeted only ten times,
Speaker 1: two point five targets a game, and he has just
Speaker 1: a brutal Week thirteen matchup against the forty nine Ers,
Speaker 1: who have allowed three hundred and fifty six receiving yards
Speaker 1: to tight ends all season that works out to thirty
Speaker 1: two point four receiving yards per game. Kasiki is not
Speaker 1: even the Dolphins' primary tight end. He basically split snapped
Speaker 1: evenly with Durham Smyth. Kasiki's snapshare on the year is
Speaker 1: fifty four percent, so not even a full time player,
Speaker 1: and he is in a really bad matchup. Has not
Speaker 1: been getting a lot of targets lately. Bet the under
Speaker 1: on Mike Kasiki with twenty one point five receiving yards.
Speaker 1: So just to recap my favorite seven Week thirteen player props,
Speaker 1: Mike White over two hundred and forty one point five
Speaker 1: passing yards, Derrick Henry over eighty four point five rushing yards,
Speaker 1: Sakwon Barkley under seventy one point five rushing yards, Robert
Speaker 1: Woods under thirty six point five receiving yards, Corey Davis
Speaker 1: over thirty six point five receiving yards, George Pickens over
Speaker 1: forty four point five receiving yards, and Mike Kasiki under
Speaker 1: twenty one point five receiving yards. That is going to
Speaker 1: do it for the Week thirteen. Pat fitz Morris player props.
Speaker 1: Good luck to you in Week thirteen. May all your
Speaker 1: bets come through and may it be a profitable week.
Speaker 1: Good luck everyone, we'll talk to you again next week.
Speaker 1: So long,