WEBVTT - The 7 Best Player Prop Bets for Week 13 (Ep. 256)

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<v Speaker 1>Hey everyone, I'm Pat fitz Morris here to give you

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<v Speaker 1>my favorite NFL player props or Week thirteen. But before

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<v Speaker 1>we get to my favorite player props, first, if you

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<v Speaker 1>want to track all of your wagers in one place,

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<v Speaker 1>check out the Betting prospicktracker at bettingpros dot com slash

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<v Speaker 1>pick hyphen tracking. It syncs up with your sportsbooks to

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<v Speaker 1>tell you which picks hit and which ones miss, and

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<v Speaker 1>it gives you a live look at what the public

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<v Speaker 1>is doing, so you can use real time tracking to

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<v Speaker 1>determine which plays to make and which ones to fade.

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<v Speaker 1>Get on the leaderboard and quickly become a sharp by

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<v Speaker 1>using the free advice we have to offer at bettingpros

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<v Speaker 1>dot com slash pick, hype and Tracking. All right, let's

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<v Speaker 1>get to the picks for Week thirteen, and we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to start with Mike White, Jets backup quarterback. He lit

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<v Speaker 1>up the Bears for three hundred and fifteen passing yards

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<v Speaker 1>in week twelve, and now he gets to face an

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<v Speaker 1>their NFC West, excuse me, NFC North team with the

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<v Speaker 1>suspect pass defense. He heads up to Minneapolis to face

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<v Speaker 1>the Vikings, who have given up a league high seven

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<v Speaker 1>point eight yards per pass attempt this season, and the

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<v Speaker 1>Vikings for the NFL's fifth worst opponent passer rating. Patriots

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<v Speaker 1>QB Mac Jones lit up Minnesota for three hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>eighty two yards on Thanksgiving nights, and four days before that,

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<v Speaker 1>Dak Prescott completed twenty two of twenty five passes against

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<v Speaker 1>the Vikings for two hundred and seventy six yards. So

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<v Speaker 1>Vikings pass defense not good. Mike White has a good

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<v Speaker 1>set of weapons. Jeff probably are not going to be

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<v Speaker 1>real run heavy with Michael Carter nursing an ankle sprain,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Vikings have some major issues at cornerback where

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<v Speaker 1>Cam Danceler is on injured reserve and rookie second rounder

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<v Speaker 1>Andrew Booth is out for the year within knee injury.

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<v Speaker 1>So I like Mike White over two hundred and forty

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<v Speaker 1>one point five passing yards. I also like Derrick Henry

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<v Speaker 1>over eighty four point five rushing yards. And yeah, it

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<v Speaker 1>seems like low hanging fruit to take the over on

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<v Speaker 1>Derrick Henry rushing yardage. He has failed to clear this

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<v Speaker 1>in two of his last three games, averaging just fifty

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<v Speaker 1>nine point three rushing yards over that stretch. But is

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<v Speaker 1>there any doubts the Titans are going to keep feeding

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<v Speaker 1>Derrick Henry the rock. I mean, that's what they do

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<v Speaker 1>on offense, let's face it. So Henry has cleared this

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<v Speaker 1>number in seven of eleven games this season, and this

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<v Speaker 1>week he's up against an Eagles defense that is much

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<v Speaker 1>easier to run on than to throw on. Philadelphia is

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<v Speaker 1>giving up five point four yards per pass attempts, that

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<v Speaker 1>is tied with Denver for the lowest mark in the league,

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<v Speaker 1>but they're giving up four point six yards per carry

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<v Speaker 1>to running backs, so it's a little easier going on

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<v Speaker 1>the ground against the Eagles than through the air. Last week,

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<v Speaker 1>Packers running backs Aaron Jones and aj Dillon combined for

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<v Speaker 1>twenty carries in one hundred and seven yards against the Eagles.

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<v Speaker 1>The week before that, it was Jonathan Taylor running for

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<v Speaker 1>eighty four yards. Back in week ten, it was Antonio

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<v Speaker 1>Gibson and Brian Robinson the Commanders, combining for one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and thirty yards against Philly. And in week nine it

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<v Speaker 1>was Texans rookie Damian Pierce stampeding the Eagles for one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and thirty nine rushing yards. So the Eagles can

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<v Speaker 1>be had on the ground for sure, and we know

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<v Speaker 1>what the Titans are going to do. They pound it

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<v Speaker 1>with Derrick Henry. I like the over on eighty four

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<v Speaker 1>point five rushing yards. One rushing under I like is

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<v Speaker 1>Saquon Barkley under seventy one point five rushing yards. And

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<v Speaker 1>we kind of have seen the Giants running game breakdown

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<v Speaker 1>over the last couple of weeks. It started in Week

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<v Speaker 1>eleven with Barkley carrying fifteen times for twenty two yards

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<v Speaker 1>against the Lions, and the Lions had been terrible against

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<v Speaker 1>the run all season, so that was a cause for alarm.

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<v Speaker 1>And then Thanksgiving Day against the cow Boys, Barkley eleven

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<v Speaker 1>carries for thirty nine yards. So it seems pretty unlikely

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<v Speaker 1>that the Giants are going to fix their running game

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<v Speaker 1>problems against the Washington Commanders this week. The Commander's ranked

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<v Speaker 1>fourth in DVA against the run and are allowing only

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<v Speaker 1>seventy nine point eight rushing yards per game to running backs,

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<v Speaker 1>seventh lowest total in the league. So Washington's good run

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<v Speaker 1>defense against a slumping Giants run offense. Robert Woods under

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<v Speaker 1>thirty six point five receiving yards. Woods has failed to

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<v Speaker 1>hit this number in five of his last six games,

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<v Speaker 1>and he's only produced forty or more receiving yards in

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<v Speaker 1>two of eleven games this season. He has fallen behind

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<v Speaker 1>Treylon Burks in the packing order and maybe even behind

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<v Speaker 1>Nick Westbrookikine and some of the Titans tight ends. Two.

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<v Speaker 1>Woods just not a big factor this year, and he

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<v Speaker 1>has a tough Week thirteen matchup against the Eagles. Just

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned this with the Derrick Henry total that the Eagles

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<v Speaker 1>are much better against the pass than against the run.

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<v Speaker 1>They have allowed the fifth fewest receiving yards to wide

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<v Speaker 1>receivers this year, and look, the Eagles have a really

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<v Speaker 1>tough pair of outside cornerbacks in Darius Slay and James Bradberry.

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<v Speaker 1>Robert Woods has lined up in the slot just seventeen

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<v Speaker 1>point three percent of the time this year. So the

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<v Speaker 1>under on Robert Woods thirty six point five receiving yards.

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<v Speaker 1>Corey Davis over thirty six point five receiving yards. Same

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<v Speaker 1>numbers Robert Woods, but I like the over with Davis,

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<v Speaker 1>and as noted earlier, the Vikings pass defense has really

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<v Speaker 1>been bad this year. That's one of the reasons I

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<v Speaker 1>like Davis to clear this relatively low bar. The Vikings

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<v Speaker 1>are twenty seventh in DBOA against the pass, and they've

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<v Speaker 1>given up a league high one and seventy three receiving

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<v Speaker 1>yards to wide receivers. And as I mentioned, they have

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<v Speaker 1>injury problems at cornerback with Cam Danzler and Andrew Booth

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<v Speaker 1>both out. So should be noted that over the first

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<v Speaker 1>six weeks of the season Corey Davis had averaged five

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<v Speaker 1>point five catches and fifty eight point five yards per

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<v Speaker 1>game before he sprained his NCL in Week seven. Davis

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<v Speaker 1>just got back from that injury in Week eleven, didn't

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<v Speaker 1>play a full snapchare in Week eleven. Last week twelve,

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<v Speaker 1>he did play a full snapchair forty three snaps only

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<v Speaker 1>one catch for nine yards in that gameer the just

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<v Speaker 1>passing game smashed against the Bears, so kind of weird

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<v Speaker 1>that Corey Davis didn't do much there. But with Davis

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<v Speaker 1>getting a healthy snaphare against a bad Vikings defense, I

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<v Speaker 1>really think this is a good percentage play for him

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<v Speaker 1>to go over thirty six and a half yards. In

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<v Speaker 1>two games last year that he played with Mike White,

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<v Speaker 1>Davis had four catches for forty seven yards and five

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<v Speaker 1>catches for ninety three yards. So take the over with

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<v Speaker 1>Davis over thirty six point five receiving yards George Pickens

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<v Speaker 1>over forty four point five receiving yards. Pickens has topped

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<v Speaker 1>this number in two straight games, and he has a

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<v Speaker 1>scrumptious Sweet thirteen matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed

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<v Speaker 1>twy and forty receiving yards to wide receivers this season,

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<v Speaker 1>the second highest total in the league, behind only the Vikings,

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<v Speaker 1>and with Steelers running back Najie Harris dealing with an

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<v Speaker 1>oblique injury, pretty unlikely the Steelers go run heavy in

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<v Speaker 1>this one. Look, if you watch Pickens play this season,

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<v Speaker 1>you know what a stud the rookie is and just

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<v Speaker 1>how talented he is. Leverage that talent in a good

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<v Speaker 1>matchup against the Falcons. Bet over forty four point five

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<v Speaker 1>receiving yards for Pickins. And finally, Mike Gasiki, the Dolphins

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<v Speaker 1>tight end under twenty one point five receiving yards in

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<v Speaker 1>his last four games, Kasiki has been targeted only ten times,

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<v Speaker 1>two point five targets a game, and he has just

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<v Speaker 1>a brutal Week thirteen matchup against the forty nine Ers,

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<v Speaker 1>who have allowed three hundred and fifty six receiving yards

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<v Speaker 1>to tight ends all season that works out to thirty

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<v Speaker 1>two point four receiving yards per game. Kasiki is not

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<v Speaker 1>even the Dolphins' primary tight end. He basically split snapped

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<v Speaker 1>evenly with Durham Smyth. Kasiki's snapshare on the year is

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<v Speaker 1>fifty four percent, so not even a full time player,

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<v Speaker 1>and he is in a really bad matchup. Has not

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<v Speaker 1>been getting a lot of targets lately. Bet the under

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<v Speaker 1>on Mike Kasiki with twenty one point five receiving yards.

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<v Speaker 1>So just to recap my favorite seven Week thirteen player props,

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<v Speaker 1>Mike White over two hundred and forty one point five

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<v Speaker 1>passing yards, Derrick Henry over eighty four point five rushing yards,

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<v Speaker 1>Sakwon Barkley under seventy one point five rushing yards, Robert

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<v Speaker 1>Woods under thirty six point five receiving yards, Corey Davis

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<v Speaker 1>over thirty six point five receiving yards, George Pickens over

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<v Speaker 1>forty four point five receiving yards, and Mike Kasiki under

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one point five receiving yards. That is going to

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<v Speaker 1>do it for the Week thirteen. Pat fitz Morris player props.

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<v Speaker 1>Good luck to you in Week thirteen. May all your

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<v Speaker 1>bets come through and may it be a profitable week.

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<v Speaker 1>Good luck everyone, we'll talk to you again next week.

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<v Speaker 1>So long,