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Speaker 1: Let's get it. Believe Jimmy Lee, now he's the chief

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Speaker 1: executive of Wealth Consulting Group, discussing the latest going on

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Speaker 1: out then, and Jimmy, it does seem very very sort

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Speaker 1: of cautious, brittle, if you like, another epithet like that,

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Speaker 1: just what a sentiment really at the moment pricing in

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Speaker 1: for the button market and for the equity market. Well,

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Speaker 1: thanks for having me on this evening. Um. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think investor sentiment is awful, but it's been awful for

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Speaker 1: a long time this year, and I think if you

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Speaker 1: look back on, you know, historical examples of when investor

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Speaker 1: sentiment has been this bad, usually stalks do very well

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Speaker 1: when year later. And so I would say that while yes,

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Speaker 1: a lot of CEOs and experts and pundits are expecting

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Speaker 1: a recession next year, I think a good percentage of

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Speaker 1: them are also thinking that it's going to be potentially

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Speaker 1: a technical one kind of like maybe this year, or

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Speaker 1: a very short one, you know, and the shallow one.

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Speaker 1: And so you know, we really don't know what's going

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Speaker 1: to happen here in the US. Um. You know, so

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Speaker 1: much of the US economy is made up of consumers

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Speaker 1: spending and consumers still have cash. So you saw that

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Speaker 1: by day after Thanksgiving, retail sales have been pretty darn good. Still,

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Speaker 1: consumers are still spending money because they've got money in

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Speaker 1: the bank accounts. Now, next summer, when when some of

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Speaker 1: that money is is or most of that money is gone,

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Speaker 1: that will truly be a test of whether or not

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Speaker 1: the consumers stage resilient. But for now, I'm actually more

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Speaker 1: bullish than most people you'll talk to about this subject. Wow.

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Speaker 1: So today we heard from Cathy Wood, the head of

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Speaker 1: our investment. I thought this was kind of curious her

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Speaker 1: take as she's looking at the bond market and coming

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Speaker 1: to the conclusion that it really shows that the FED

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Speaker 1: is on the verge of making a serious mistake, if

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Speaker 1: it hasn't already done so. And then on Twitter she

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Speaker 1: went on to say, deflation is a much bigger risk

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Speaker 1: than inflation. I mean, are we looking at a scenario

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Speaker 1: where this elevated level of inflation could kind of come

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Speaker 1: down pretty sharply, very dramatically. Could we be in any

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Speaker 1: sort of deflationary environment? You know, if there's one thing

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Speaker 1: that I'll agree with her on is on the subject

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Speaker 1: of inflation. I actually believe that inflation is coming down

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Speaker 1: much quicker than what's actually in the numbers, as as

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Speaker 1: you know, UM housing the way that the data is

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Speaker 1: collected using a rebrew mirror represents course c P I,

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Speaker 1: and because it's using old data, it's not it's not

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Speaker 1: reflecting in the data today, which which if it was

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Speaker 1: UM it would show inflation to be much lower. I think,

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Speaker 1: giving the said um and easier path to you know,

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Speaker 1: starting to pause. UM. Doctor Jeremy Siegel has been talking

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Speaker 1: about it a lot um in interviews that he's done

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Speaker 1: that I've seen, and he's not the only one, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think inflation is coming down quicker in a lot

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Speaker 1: of areas. And if you're looking at forward looking data,

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Speaker 1: then you know, again I would be in a couple

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Speaker 1: of years out I'd be more concerned about how are

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Speaker 1: we going to get some inflation? And so I think

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Speaker 1: Cathy is right on that point. And you know, I

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Speaker 1: think investors really need to be poised in positioned for

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Speaker 1: whatever words that sound like a pase to come out

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Speaker 1: of Pale's mouth, because when that happened, I think that

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Speaker 1: the stock market will be up much higher than we're

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Speaker 1: at today. Rocket put under it actually Jimmy, the thing

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Speaker 1: is we've got base effects also likely to really show,

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Speaker 1: you know, that the inflation may well be more benign

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Speaker 1: than thought. What's your take on that? And I'm sure

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is acutely aware of what happened last year.

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Speaker 1: I think they are, and I'm not sure if that's why.

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Speaker 1: You know, Powell sounded a little bit more doublish the

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Speaker 1: last time he spoke. You know, other FED members really

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Speaker 1: haven't uh, you know, pivoted yet. But you know, the

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Speaker 1: market rally, the market, stock market rallied off of his speech,

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Speaker 1: and you know, so I think the market is going

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Speaker 1: to be volatible and go kind of back and forth.

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Speaker 1: You know, we've had a nice run, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: off the lows until we get the you know, soon enough,

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Speaker 1: the reading on c p I and then the FED

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Speaker 1: meeting in what they will do. And so I would

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Speaker 1: expect that inflation will continue to creep lower, I hope,

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Speaker 1: and that we don't get any major surprises. The Fed

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Speaker 1: does her fifty basis point hike. Hopefully talked a little

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Speaker 1: bit more doublishly again, and I hope that's what ends

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Speaker 1: up happening. If we were to get a lower inflation

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Speaker 1: number a much lower one than expected. I wouldn't be shocked,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think it's going to happen, just because

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Speaker 1: the consumers still has a lot of money. Consumers still spending,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think that we're quite there yet. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if you saw the price section in Carvana today,

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Speaker 1: the stock was down forty three. This is the online

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Speaker 1: car dealership. They've got trouble. They're trying to get it

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Speaker 1: worked out with their creditors. Let's put that aside for

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Speaker 1: a moment. Separately, Today we learned that used car prices

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Speaker 1: in the usfl again in the month of November. I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at the Mannheim Used Vehicle Value Index. It was

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Speaker 1: down from last year. So, yes, you're right, we're seeing

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Speaker 1: evidence of a real move lower in some of the

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Speaker 1: price pressures that had been building in the American economy,

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Speaker 1: Which then takes me to the notion of corporate earnings.

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Speaker 1: Are we looking at a situation where we're just on

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Speaker 1: the bottom line forget top line, where we're really going

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Speaker 1: to be in for a route awakening here when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the earnings reporting season. I hope not. Another

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Speaker 1: consensus is for a negative around I think two percent

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Speaker 1: still is a consensus for a fourth quarter earnings. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if that's really going to happen or not.

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Speaker 1: I think companies are still doing very well, just like UM.

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Speaker 1: I mean, for the most part, generally speaking. There's certain

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Speaker 1: sectors like tech obviously housing that just been destroyed, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of businesses are are still doing okay. And

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Speaker 1: I think in terms of stock taking, I think there's

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Speaker 1: opportunities and growth stocks, you know, which which we haven't had,

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Speaker 1: you know, for a long time, And so I think

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Speaker 1: you can go looking for some um companies that will

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Speaker 1: come out of this UM the situation we're in today,

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Speaker 1: like and if yeah, like tech and in areas of tech,

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Speaker 1: and if and if China really does reopen, and of

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Speaker 1: course it looks like it looks like the government's responding

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Speaker 1: to all the protests going on over there. I wasn't

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Speaker 1: really expecting that this quickly. I don't think anyone was. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: who knows, right, And so if they're changing that, and

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Speaker 1: and we finally get a global reopening of the entire

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Speaker 1: world world economy with the second largest economy participating, I

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Speaker 1: think that changes the ball game for a lot of

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Speaker 1: different um you know, countries and worldwide potential growth and

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Speaker 1: demand again, will prices will probably go back up a

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Speaker 1: little bit. And then I think three, hopefully we can

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Speaker 1: look towards more peace in Ukraine, hopefully talk the other

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Speaker 1: way around. So talk to me about how do you

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Speaker 1: want to be how do you want to be exposed

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Speaker 1: to this, Jimmy, Do you want to be exposed to

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Speaker 1: US multinationals that are doing business in Asia, particularly China?

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Speaker 1: Or do you do you say heck with it, I'm

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Speaker 1: going into Hong Kong and I'm gonna go along China

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Speaker 1: that way, I think, um, you still want to be multinational?

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Speaker 1: I think I still did GEO political risk is probably

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Speaker 1: the highest risk that's out there today. But um, I

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Speaker 1: think there's a lot of opportunity going forward though, And

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Speaker 1: so I would say go stick with US companies, and uh,

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Speaker 1: that's why I want to play it. Not that not

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Speaker 1: that I would avoid international stocks. I mean, we have

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Speaker 1: allocation to international developed countries as well as emerging markets

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Speaker 1: and and typically always will um, but we're not overweight

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Speaker 1: there yet. And I still think in the short run,

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Speaker 1: the US economy is definitely the best place to be,

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Speaker 1: but there's more value in terms of valuations in general

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Speaker 1: outside the US. It's just whether or not those economies

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Speaker 1: will really pick up. We need a resolution in your

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Speaker 1: train and we need China to fully reopen in order

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Speaker 1: for that to happen. But that's what investors could look

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Speaker 1: forward to in Yeah, I mean, you could find the

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Speaker 1: China as it does used to do before, and given

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Speaker 1: this position at the moment in terms of inflation, could

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Speaker 1: start exporting deflation once more, no question about it. And uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't think that while you know, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna have a lot more on shoring advantage factory, it's

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Speaker 1: going to take a long time, right to build the

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Speaker 1: plans to create chips and and other things that are

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Speaker 1: coming on shore. It's not gonna happen overnight. And I

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Speaker 1: don't think the worldwide investment community has quite given up

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Speaker 1: on China yet. But I think you're gonna hear a

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Speaker 1: lot about China and US relations from the government US

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Speaker 1: government going forward, and it's gonna be a big topic

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Speaker 1: I think of discussion, but I think there's by part

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Speaker 1: of support in terms of making US stronger. Speaking of discussion,

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Speaker 1: A good one with you today, Jimmy, Thanks so much

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Speaker 1: for making time for us Jimmy Lee. There he is

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Speaker 1: the CEO of Wealth Consulting Group, joining us here on

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Speaker 1: d b as