1 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. 2 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:09,400 Speaker 1: On today's episode, we'll be taking a look at the 3 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: outlook for China's industrial economy. We'll be speaking with Chao Fung, 4 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: co head of China Industrial Research at CLSA. Plus a 5 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: look at the life and legacy of former US President 6 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: Jimmy Carter. But first a look at the top story 7 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 1: in the Asia Pacific. Investigators are probing the cause of 8 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: South Korea's worst civil aviation accident ever. One hundred and 9 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,639 Speaker 1: seventy nine occupants of a Boeing seven thirty seven are 10 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 1: dead after the aircraft skidded along the runway on its 11 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 1: belly before smashing into a wall and then exploding into 12 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:46,840 Speaker 1: a ball of fire. The aircraft was operated by South 13 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: Korea's Jaju Air. The crash occurred at Muan International Airport 14 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: on Sunday morning. Only a pair of flight attendants survived. 15 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: For more on this tragic story, let's bring in Bloomberg's 16 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: Danny Lee. He covers a should transport from our bureau 17 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: in Hong Kong. Danny, thank you for joining us. I'm 18 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: sorry about the circumstances. The pilot apparently issued a may 19 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 1: day emergency call after what was described as a bird 20 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:15,039 Speaker 1: strike warning. What do we know about this? 21 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 2: So the bird strike warning was given to pilots by 22 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 2: the airport staff and aircraft control in the minutes before 23 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 2: the landing, and this is a critical phase of flight 24 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 2: for pilots to you obviously, navigate safely in land. And 25 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 2: after this bird strike warning there was a made a 26 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 2: call from the pilots they had suffered a bird strike. 27 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:42,919 Speaker 2: And then subsequently minutes later we well, the crash happened, 28 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 2: and there was some spectacular footage showing the lead up 29 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 2: to the crash and then the actual crash itself, which 30 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 2: is just so devastating. This high speed barely landing with 31 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 2: the landing gears not deployed, and just this aircraft, this 32 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 2: bowing seven pre Dash eight hundred jet, sliding along the 33 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 2: wrong ways, seemingly not slowing down in any way, and 34 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:11,519 Speaker 2: crashing into the embankment at a high speed, this fireball 35 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 2: that erupted and just this plane basically completely destroyed subsequently, 36 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 2: So these are potential points for the investigators to want 37 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 2: to look at the bird strike, the may day call, 38 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 2: and the possible landing gear malfunction as well. So ultimately 39 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 2: there is a lot for investigators to look at, but 40 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,519 Speaker 2: there's also a lot of things that they need to 41 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:38,919 Speaker 2: keep their mind open for because you know, anything could 42 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 2: have happened, and they need to scrutinize so much in 43 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 2: the days and weeks and months to come. 44 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: A vital piece of information that we will get on 45 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 1: the circumstances surrounding this disaster will come from the readout 46 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: of the two flight recorders. Do we know anything as 47 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: to whether or not these recorders were recovered fully intact? 48 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 2: So we know that the two recorders, the cockpit voice 49 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,639 Speaker 2: recorder and the flight data recorder were recovered, but one 50 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 2: of these boxes was damaged, and so there is an 51 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,679 Speaker 2: assessment being done now to see the extent of the 52 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 2: damage and whether that damage means that the boxes themselves, 53 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 2: at least one of the boxes can be analyzed properly 54 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,360 Speaker 2: in the country, or whether that this now has to 55 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 2: be taken outside of the country to be analyzed, and 56 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 2: that could take time, and that's time which could be 57 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 2: frustrating because people want answers quickly to what happened in 58 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 2: what is you know, Stavqurea's worst civil aviation disaster now ever, so. 59 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: I indicated earlier that this was a seven thirty seven, 60 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: eight hundred Boeing aircraft. Do we know anything about whether 61 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: or not Boeing will be involved in the investigation, or 62 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: whether US authorities will join in. 63 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 2: We have heard from Boeing and the US National Transportation 64 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 2: Safety Board. They've both said that they will support or 65 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 2: be involved to an extent in the investigation. Will not 66 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 2: be leading this because it's not necessarily in their jurisdiction, 67 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 2: but given the manufacturer of the aircraft and where it 68 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 2: was from, UH, they will always have a role to 69 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 2: play here. And it goes about saying that for this 70 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 2: crash and for this type of aircraft, clearly there has 71 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 2: been a lot of scrutiny on Boeing, but this type 72 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 2: of aircraft, which is we must stress not one of 73 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 2: the newer Boeing seventy seven max Jet variants. This type 74 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 2: of aircraft is four thousand of these in service. So 75 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 2: it is an incredibly well used, very popular aircraft and 76 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 2: incredibly safe. And given the unfortunate milestone of this crash 77 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,160 Speaker 2: being the worst in South Korea's history, it's taken over 78 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 2: twenty years for this to become a new you know 79 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,280 Speaker 2: what to call it a milestone, unfortunate grim milestone to 80 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 2: be made in this and so you know, it goes 81 00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 2: about saying that aviation it's still incredibly safe. It's just 82 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 2: an unfortunate time that there's so much attention on the 83 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,919 Speaker 2: aviation industry at large, with so many incidents big and 84 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 2: small happening. 85 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: Danny, what can you tell me about jju Era? I mean, 86 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 1: what type of carrier is this? 87 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 3: So? 88 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 2: Jjua is a budget carrier, a mid sized carrier that 89 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:22,720 Speaker 2: only started in two thousand and five and it has 90 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 2: grown to operate an all bowing fleet of forty two 91 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 2: aircraft and so you know, it's a very focused carrier 92 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 2: flying around the Asia region. And so unfortunately for them, 93 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 2: this crash is their first fatal accident, and they had 94 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 2: one other small accident previously, many many years ago. But 95 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 2: they've been an incredibly safe operator and that doesn't seem 96 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 2: like that would ever change ultimately, but given the scrutiny, 97 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 2: clearly there'll be a lot of questions on on Jjua 98 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:02,039 Speaker 2: and particularly it's pilots, its operation, and obviously how it 99 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,840 Speaker 2: handles this particular case going forward. 100 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: Danny, thank you so much for joining us and helping 101 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: us better understand this tragic story. Danny Lee covers the 102 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: aviation industry for Bloomberg News, joining us on the Daybreak 103 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 1: Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Podcast. 104 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: I'm Doug Chrisner. It's going to be a holiday shortened 105 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 1: week in market. Several will be closed or will close 106 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 1: early Tuesday and Wednesday. Even so, we're expecting a couple 107 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: of key data points, and among them in Asia readings 108 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 1: on the health of the Chinese economy, we'll be getting 109 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:45,599 Speaker 1: both the official and the private PMI surveys for a 110 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 1: closer look. I'm joined now by Chiao Fong. He is 111 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: co head of China Industrial Research at CLSA, joining us 112 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 1: from our studios in Hong Kong. Chiaofong, thank you so 113 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 1: much for making the time to chat with us. Let's 114 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 1: start with the sentiment readings that we're expecting for China, 115 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: the PMI surveys. How do you think things will look 116 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:03,479 Speaker 1: for China. 117 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 4: I think overall things are still recovering. If you look 118 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 4: at the PMI reading which is about to release, moral 119 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 4: and also the industry production profits data, everything is really 120 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 4: pointing to a recovery pace. But with that being said, 121 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,559 Speaker 4: I think the recovery is not really as as strong 122 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 4: or as fast as we'd like to see. What I 123 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 4: can say is the worst is definitely behind us. If 124 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:28,679 Speaker 4: you look at the industrial profits and imagery levels here, 125 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 4: the orders from equipment makers, which is usually a good 126 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 4: indicators of industrial demand, suggest double digit growth stunning from 127 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 4: the second half of the year. In the meanwhile, we 128 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 4: are seeing the book order numbers from overseas producers also 129 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 4: are working fine or working on the favor of the 130 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 4: Chinese producers. So generally I think the worst is behind us, 131 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 4: but the recovery pace it's definitely sit much stronger. 132 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: One of the things about the PMI is that it's 133 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 1: a sentiment reading, and I'm wondering whether or not some 134 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: of what we are going to get in that PMI 135 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: data for China this week will reflect maybe the thread 136 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: of US tariffs. Is that possible? 137 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 4: I think for the seasonality, yes, because usually towards the 138 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 4: end of the year's holiday season, usually the buyers in 139 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 4: the US are trying to make the booking for the 140 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 4: holiday sales. In the meanwhile, because of the potential Trump tariffs, 141 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 4: we are seeing some type of pre orders from the 142 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 4: US sides and trying to get the inventries up to 143 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 4: better prepare for the coming tariffs. Yes, we are seeing 144 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 4: some type of front loading thing. 145 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 1: One of the other things that I'm concerned about is 146 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: the issue what has been called by the US as 147 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: an overcapacity issue for China, and that relates to a 148 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: number of industries, especially electric vehicles. What is your assessment 149 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 1: on the degree to which we're going to begin to 150 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 1: see maybe a little bit more in the way of 151 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: consolidation in the Chinese EV space in twenty twenty five. Yep. 152 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 4: Sure, so for now, I think when most of people 153 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 4: are talking about overcapacity or low capacity utilization for the 154 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 4: EV industry, people refer to the whole industry data which 155 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 4: is right now running at around forty to fifty percent 156 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 4: of capacity utilization. It's very low. We have around forty 157 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 4: to forty five million units of capacities in China, while 158 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 4: the auto sales is really twenty to twenty three millions 159 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 4: a year. But if you look at the structural issues 160 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 4: here EV makers in the meanwhile, it's running at a 161 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 4: much higher capacity utilization, generally around eighty percent or above. 162 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 4: While the ice car makers, the traditional ice co makers, 163 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 4: are running at the below fifty percent, So that's a 164 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:42,439 Speaker 4: structural difference here. As the overall, I believe EV makers 165 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 4: will continue that trend. They will be growing much more 166 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 4: faster at the losses of the ice makers. We are 167 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 4: forecasting in the pers in your vehicle market to be 168 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 4: at low fingle digit growth next years, but in the 169 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 4: meanwhile ev will be growing at twenty five to thirty 170 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 4: percent versus twenty five to thirty percent losses from the 171 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 4: ice carmakers. The second thing is really the consolidations of 172 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 4: the industry. We believe twenty twenty five will start to 173 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 4: see a materialization of the industry conthoridations, which already happening 174 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 4: this year. We're seeing some joint ventures are shutting down 175 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 4: the factories in China. We're seeing some exit of the 176 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 4: brands from the new forces of the EV makers, which 177 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 4: we're going to be materialized in twenty twenty five. So 178 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 4: I think the industry counthoridations will continue to help drive 179 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 4: up the capacity utilizations. 180 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 1: When I think of evs, I think of a not 181 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,079 Speaker 1: only domestic demand, but I think of a very strong 182 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 1: export market as well. But when it comes to the 183 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 1: issue of domestic demand, how much more can the government 184 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: be doing. There is a lot that's already been communicated. 185 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 1: Are you expecting a lot more in terms of fiscal 186 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 1: policy from Beijing in the year ahead? 187 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 4: So I used to cover commodities. If you are talking 188 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 4: about the larger scale stimulus like we saw in the 189 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 4: twenty twenty nine or twenty two thousand and nine after 190 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 4: financial crisis, we probably will be disappointed because from my perspective, 191 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,839 Speaker 4: I think the Chinese government will stop doing that kind 192 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 4: of large scale stimulus. Instead, we are seeing a shift 193 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 4: of the policy focus from the production side, investment side 194 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 4: to consumer side. In China, investment has to be used 195 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 4: to be the biggest growth driver, accounts for more than 196 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 4: one third of the fixed at investment. But for now, 197 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 4: with the shrinking of the property space and struggling local 198 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 4: government financials, we're seeing the manufacturing industries, the value adding 199 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 4: industries are accounting for a larger share of the economy. 200 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:34,959 Speaker 4: So that's why going forward we'll see the policy will 201 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 4: be more focusing on driving the consumption rather than pushing 202 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 4: for the production. This is what our reports is saying, 203 00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 4: a change of the policy from push to pull. In 204 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 4: the meanwhile, I believe the multiplier effect suggests that it 205 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 4: has been working very well for the consumption of steamless policy. 206 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 4: For example, the trading steamless policy of autos as about 207 00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 4: two to three times of multiplier effect, meaning every time 208 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:04,319 Speaker 4: Dottie is spending astride driving, the autocathumption has been generating 209 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 4: two three dollars of economic growth. So that's why overall 210 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 4: we believe we are going to see the shift has 211 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 4: been working in that favor. 212 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 1: Chiao Pung, thank you so much for taking time to 213 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: chat with us. Chao Fung is co head of China 214 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: Industrial Research at CLSA, joining us here on the Daybreak 215 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 1: Asia podcast. We move next to former US President Jimmy Carter, 216 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 1: who died on Sunday at the age of one hundred. 217 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: Carter was the longest living US president in history. He 218 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:33,439 Speaker 1: died at his home in Plains, Georgia, in early twenty 219 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,679 Speaker 1: twenty three. Carter opted to spend his remaining time at 220 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 1: home while receiving hospice care. For more on Carter's legacy, 221 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: we heard from Bloomberg Wall Street. We coast David Weston. 222 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: He spoke with Bloomberg's Heidi Stroud Watts. 223 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 3: David, really great to have you with us as you 224 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 3: sort of look at the retrospective of the former president's life. 225 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 3: What sort of jumps out to you that perhaps, you know, 226 00:12:57,480 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 3: the mainstream we haven't given him enough credit for. 227 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 5: Well, you hit Heidia on a couple of the big 228 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 5: points that people will focus on, which is an Iranian 229 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 5: hostage crisis, which was a terrible event. And there was 230 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 5: also the oil crisis as we were lined up to 231 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 5: get a gas at the pump here, and of course stagflation. 232 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 5: We had runaway inflation and stagnation. But as you suggest, 233 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 5: there are some things I think people maybe have overlooked 234 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 5: about Jimmy Carter, and that is particularly how it affected 235 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 5: business and Wall Street. People overlook the fact that he 236 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:29,559 Speaker 5: was the one who appointed Paul Wolker to run the FED, 237 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,839 Speaker 5: which really put inflation back in its place. Often people 238 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 5: give Reagan his success or credit for that, but actually 239 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 5: he put that in place. Similarly, deregulation that is associated 240 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 5: with Reagane actually was started under Jimmy Carter with the 241 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 5: appointment of Alfred Khan from Cornell who drew regular the airline. 242 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 5: So he actually had quite an effect on the business 243 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 5: community on Wall Street, which we don't normally think of. 244 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,199 Speaker 5: In respect to Jimmy Carter, What. 245 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 3: Do you think the most sort of I guess enduring 246 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 3: parts of his legacy would be, and we do know 247 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 3: that he was sort of quite visible in recent political circles. 248 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,439 Speaker 5: Well, listen, one of the most enduring parts of his 249 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,679 Speaker 5: presidency was what happened after his presidency, because he had 250 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 5: the longest post presidency of any US president, and he 251 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 5: received the Nobel Peace Prize for his actions around the 252 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 5: world promoting democracy and try to police elections around the world, 253 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 5: in addition to working on a habitat for humanity building 254 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 5: pausing here in the United States for the poor. So 255 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 5: he had an amazing I think most people would agree 256 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 5: the most remarkable post presidency of any president, which I 257 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 5: think will be an important part of his legacy. Another 258 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 5: part of his legacy are the people that he influenced 259 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 5: who were in his administration, who were young people of 260 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 5: the time. He was something of a technocrat, having been 261 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 5: a nuclear engineer in the US Navy, and he went 262 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 5: and hired the best and the parties he could get, 263 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 5: and those included some of the people who became leading 264 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 5: lights on Wall Street, people like David Rubinstein and Roger 265 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 5: Altman and Jane Hartley, who's just stepping down as our 266 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 5: ambassador to Great Britain, as well as Ralph Schlostein from 267 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 5: evercorep All these people were youngsters really at the time 268 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 5: in the Carter White House, and they were brought in 269 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 5: specifically because he made a policy of going and finding 270 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 5: the best and the brightest young people he could and 271 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 5: bringing him into his administration. Yeah, it was. 272 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 3: Quite interesting to see that he had that final wish 273 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 3: right he wanted to make it long enough to be 274 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 3: able to cast his ballot for Kamala Harris, which obviously 275 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 3: he was. 276 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 5: Able to do. 277 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 3: I do wonder, you know, if you sort of compare 278 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 3: how we'll be ending the year and we're of course 279 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 3: going to be getting the state funeral that's been ordered 280 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 3: by President Biden in the coming days, how much is 281 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 3: politics and the landscape of you know, the political arena 282 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 3: for the US really changed since Jimmy Carter's time. 283 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 5: I was, it's changed really fun to Bentley, and it's 284 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 5: important to remember with Jimmy Carter what he inherited. He 285 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 5: came just in the aftermath of the debacle in Vietnam 286 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 5: for the United States and also just inherited a lot 287 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 5: of the problems that came after Watergate and the questions 288 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 5: about integrity, and he came in almost as an accidental 289 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 5: president because people didn't want to re elect Gerald Ford 290 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 5: because that pardon. At the same time, as we look 291 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 5: forward into the new year with Donald Trump returning to 292 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 5: the White House, a couple of things strike me as ironic. 293 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 5: One of the things that Jimmy Carter did was the 294 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 5: Panama Canal treat turning Panama Canal back to the people 295 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 5: in Panama, which now Donald Trump says that you would 296 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 5: like to undo. And also under Jimmy Carter, they created 297 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 5: not one, but two different parts and departments of the 298 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 5: United States government, which were Energy and Education. Once again, 299 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 5: Donald Trump now campaigned unlimiting depart of Education. So we'll see. 300 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 5: But Donald Trump has set out a pattern for himself 301 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 5: that he would like to undo a lot of what 302 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 5: Jimmy Carter did. 303 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 3: Bloomberg's David Weston there in New York. 304 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak 305 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 1: Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story 306 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You 307 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, 308 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for 309 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore 310 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 1: and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner and this is Blombergh.