WEBVTT - Trump Will Call Putin to Push for Trilateral With Zelenskiy 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:10.520 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg business 0:00:10.520 --> 0:00:14.680 Weekdaily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:18.799 ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping 0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:23.760 today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:27.800 as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:31.720 Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:33.479 I want to get back to our top story out 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:37.280 of Washington, DC. The President and President Zelenski of Ukraine 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:39.680 are now talking with Europe's leaders. It's a second meeting 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:43.600 that followed the Trump Zelenski bilateral that we saw earlier today. 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:46.800 The President has reiterated that he will call President Putin 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:49.239 of Russia after talks are over, and you will try 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:53.400 to arrange a three way Russia Ukraine US meeting. I 0:00:53.400 --> 0:00:55.400 want to bring in Jennifer Welch. She's been watching this 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:59.000 very closely. She's chief geoeconomics analyst for Bloomberg Economics. She 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:00.120 joins us from our Washing. 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:01.400 To DC bureau. 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:06.160 The signs out of the meeting with Zelensky earlier today 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:09.560 there was certainly a different tone, Jennifer. I'm wondering how 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:12.360 you're viewing this, and then also the commentary that we 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:16.199 got from more than half a dozen leaders of NATO 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:17.080 and Europe. 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:20.600 All signs so far look positive. The meeting is still ongoing, 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:23.640 which is also a positive sign. This is very much 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:27.199 a strong contrast from Zelenski's last meeting in the Oval Office, 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:30.360 which ended early, which blew up into fireworks in front 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:33.720 of the press. The camaraderie that Trump and Zelenski were 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:36.440 demonstrating to each other in front of the cameras first 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:38.280 and there by a lot and then again when surrounded 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:41.200 by European leaders, I think just signals how far that 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:43.800 relationship has come, and I think, in particular how far 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:47.320 Zolensky and European leaders have come in developing a playbook 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:49.440 for how to deal with Trump. And we saw this 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:51.360 in the way in which they all engaged in that 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:54.920 press conference just about an hour ago, going around the 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:59.120 table praising Trump, sort of incepting this idea of maybe 0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:02.040 we should really emphasize the ceasefire for us to give 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:05.440 time to negotiating a larger peace deal, and the security 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:07.400 guarantees are going to be a really important part of this. 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:09.800 And thank you so much, President Trump for bringing us 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:12.600 all here today, So I think we have moved quite 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:15.080 a bit from where we were earlier this year. The 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:17.519 key question though, is what are the terms that they're 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:19.720 all going to agree on and that Trump will then 0:02:19.760 --> 0:02:22.600 be presenting to putin. Will those be enough to kind 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.320 of get us forward momentum towards an ultimate piece deal 0:02:25.360 --> 0:02:25.920 of some sort. 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:28.919 Yeah, it was really interesting to just watch at least 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:32.679 the footage that we could see here the European leaders 0:02:33.040 --> 0:02:38.400 and Trump. The tone looked fairly positive. People were, you know, laughing, 0:02:39.200 --> 0:02:44.120 making jokes at least in a lighter kind of casual sense. 0:02:44.760 --> 0:02:48.320 And you mentioned that it seems like the European leaders 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:51.720 are taking a different approach to Trump now, maybe more 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:55.359 willing to all work together. What, in your view has 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:58.880 sparked that that change in tone. 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:02.200 I think part of it is the recognition of presenting 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:04.080 a united front to President Trump. 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:04.320 Right. 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:06.560 The fact that all of these leaders came into town 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:09.400 today to join President Zelenski when he was meeting with Trump, 0:03:09.600 --> 0:03:12.440 so it's not just Lenski and Trump one on one. 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:14.800 I think that was really critical. I think also it 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:18.000 gives Trump the opportunity to kind of play host, to 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:20.799 look like the peacemaker, which is something he signaled over 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:23.799 and over again he's really interested in doing. I think 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:25.920 all of these tactics are kind of born out of 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:28.840 seeing what didn't work earlier in the year, which was 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:31.839 Lenski meeting one on one with Trump, or rather being 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:34.320 the only form representative in the Oval Office with Trump 0:03:34.320 --> 0:03:38.680 and his team having that more combative conversation. European leaders 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:40.880 have been coaching him behind the scenes on how to 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:43.120 deal more effectively with Trump, and I think that that 0:03:43.240 --> 0:03:45.760 has shown a lot of fruit by the time that 0:03:45.800 --> 0:03:47.640 we get to the meetings happening place today. 0:03:49.040 --> 0:03:53.760 It's pretty remarkable that you're you know, that's working so well, 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:56.400 and it's and it's yeah, go. 0:03:56.360 --> 0:04:00.800 Ahead, no, no, it is, and you have some really 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:04.560 clear players at the table earlier today, most notably the 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:08.600 NATO Secretary General Mark Rutha, who's someone who is in 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:11.120 part picked for that job because of his ability to 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:13.240 know how to work well with Trump and the fact 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:16.599 that Trump seemed to not so subtly indicate that part 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.200 of his openness to security guarantees for Ukraine is taking 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:22.520 place in the context of what he sees as NATO 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:26.600 agreeing to spend more on defense NATO members beyond the 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.200 United States, That is what I mean. Spending more on 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:32.680 their defense is for him a consideration. But it comes 0:04:32.720 --> 0:04:34.960 to thinking about how much skinned the US is putting 0:04:34.960 --> 0:04:36.800 in this game. For Ukraine, what do. 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:38.960 You think they're talking about as we speak right now? 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:41.680 I think there are a couple of key issues it 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:44.400 sounds like are still being worked out at the moment 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:46.880 based on that press conference we saw in the last hour. 0:04:47.240 --> 0:04:49.320 The first one is this question of are we going 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:52.719 for a ceasefire first or a full peace deal. Coming 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:55.320 out of his meeting with President Putin, Trump seemed to 0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:57.599 be emphasizing We're just going to go for the peace deal. 0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.320 We're not going to pause, you know, We're not going 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:01.680 to focus on sort of this lower end of a ceasefire. 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:04.240 We're just going to end this thing once and for all. 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:08.119 European leaders Ukraine have actually been pushing the opposite direction. 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:10.640 They want to ceasefire first, one because they don't want 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:13.159 to be negotiating something as massive as a peace seal 0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:16.640 while under fire quite literally. And two because this tends 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:18.919 to be kind of a Russia delay tactic to push 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:21.400 for a larger peace seal that's going to take a 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:24.320 long time to resolve while still trying to make gains 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:26.560 on the battlefield. So I think that's one issue that 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:28.960 seems clear they're going to be still discussing. A second 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:31.880 one is going to be territorial issues Russia. Again, we 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:34.679 don't know exactly what Putin and Trump discussed on Friday, 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:37.640 but most likely Putin was reiterating some of Russia's long 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:42.280 standing and demands that Ukraine seed over formal recognition of 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:44.920 territories that Russia has occupied for some period of time, 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:49.039 as well as withdrawal from territory that Russia doesn't currently 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:52.240 control but would like to occupy. Those have been non 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:55.279 starters for Ukraine and by extension, for a lot of 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:57.840 European leaders as well. And then the third issue that 0:05:57.880 --> 0:05:59.560 I think they're likely to discuss it was a huge 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:02.080 point of it emphasis and that press conference is what 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:04.719 are the nature of security guarantees that the US and 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:07.640 Europe will be providing to Ukraine to hold this deal 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:10.719 firmly in place. President Trump said himself that he wants 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:12.400 a deal to last. He doesn't want to have to 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:15.000 be going at this again in a couple of years 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:17.400 that the deal breaks down and we see complete heat 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:20.279 back up again. That's also a key concern for European 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:25.320 and obviously Ukrainian leaders as well. Security guarantees could ideally 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:27.599 hold that deal in place so that we're not just 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:31.039 existing in some sort of frozen armiscist or frozen conflict 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:32.760 that could reheat at any point in time. 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:35.680 Given the fact that Russia is not in the room 0:06:35.760 --> 0:06:38.599 right now, Putin is not there as a part of 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:43.400 any of these discussions, how much progress can the EU 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:48.040 and Zelenski and Trump make on all of these points 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:50.560 that you raise right now with Russia not there. 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.320 I think from European and Ukrainian leader's perspective, but they're 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:57.320 probably more focused on even obviously they all want to 0:06:57.320 --> 0:06:59.240 reach a peace seal, but they want to reach the 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:01.000 right peace seal for Ukraine. They don't want to make 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:03.760 concessions just so that Russia will agree to it. That 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:07.360 could end up compromising Ukraine's security and by extension, europe 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:09.880 security down the line. I think what they're more focused 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:11.840 on in this current moment in time is making sure 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:14.320 that they don't look like the obstacles to peace. So, 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:17.480 in a sense, a still positive outcome for them out 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:19.600 of this meeting would be they get Trump to agree 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:22.480 to certain terms or conditions. He's said earlier he was 0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:24.880 going to call Putin right after this meeting if Putin 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:27.480 doesn't agree to them. Now, Putin's the one who's vietoing 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:29.960 the peace process, right and the onus is back on 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:32.920 him and back on Moscow. I think it's very likely 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.080 that we're going to reach a sort of stalemate here, 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:37.640 just given how far apart the different parties of this 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:40.360 are on the key terms for a deal, and the 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:43.360 fact that Russia probably still thinks time is on its side, 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:45.520 and so it's playing for that time because it thinks 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:47.800 the more that it has time to make gains on 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:50.440 the battlefield, the more it will win back, the more 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:53.480 fatigue the West will become, and the more likely President 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:56.240 Trump will move on to other issues. So they are 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:59.400 not necessarily genuinely interested in resolving this conflict at this 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:01.560 moment in time, and I think that reduces the chance 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:04.720 that they'll agree to anything, even terms that could otherwise 0:08:04.720 --> 0:08:06.200 be considered relatively favorable. 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:08.240 So what does that mean just to you said stalemate 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:12.280 but a continuation of what we've been saying, continuation. 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:15.000 Of the conflict, potentially a continuation of efforts at peace, 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:18.760 but ultimately we think Moscow isn't really interested in ending 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:21.400 the war right now, let alone agree to some sort 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:23.720 of ceasefire or something that would put it on pause 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:25.880 and give Ukraine a chance to kind of recoup and 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:27.600 reconstitute its forces. 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:32.520 Jennifer thirty seconds left here. What position does that leave 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:32.920 Europe in? 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:36.760 I think Europe's main focus right now is maintaining that 0:08:36.880 --> 0:08:39.560 United Front, figuring out ways that they can backfield support 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:42.199 for Ukraine without the United States being the direct pride 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:44.360 of it. And so far this weapons for money scheme 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:46.920 that they've worked out with the US seems to be working. 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.920 Jennifer Welch always great when you join us. We really 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:53.800 appreciate you taking the time this afternoon. Jennifer Welch's chief 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:58.440 geoeconomics analyst for Bloomberg Economics. Check out her research on 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:02.960 the Bloomberg Terminal in the entire team's analysis from Bloomberg 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:06.559 Economics on the Bloomberg Terminal and at Bloomberg dot Com. 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:10.160 Stay with us more from Bloomberg BusinessWeek Daily coming up 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:10.800 after this. 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:18.800 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:21.559 us live weekday afternoons from two to five Easter and 0:09:21.760 --> 0:09:25.720 listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:27.960 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:30.760 I want to right now bring in doctor Angela Stench. 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:33.440 She's a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, also the 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:35.880 author of Putin's World, Russia Against the West and With 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:39.319 the Rest. She's a former National Intelligence officer for Russia 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:42.800 and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. She served in 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:45.280 the Office Policy Planning at the US Department of State. 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:49.559 She joins us from Nantucket this afternoon, Doctor sten I'm 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:52.880 sure like you and the rest of the world, like us, 0:09:53.000 --> 0:09:57.160 we watched the meeting just now that press availability. What 0:09:57.240 --> 0:10:00.440 we heard from these European leaders with great interest, what 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:03.880 we heard from Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office earlier, 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:08.040 with great interest. One word kept coming up over and 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:12.520 over again. Trilateral the idea of meeting to end this 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:16.840 war between Russia, Ukraine and the United States. Is this 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:18.880 finally the beginning of the end of this war. 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:23.559 I would definitely hope that it is, but I'm still 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:26.880 not convinced that President Putin would be interested in a 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:31.000 trilateral meeting. He had what seemed to be a very 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:36.880 successful meeting with President Trump on Friday in Alaska, where 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:40.400 we had President Trump seemingly agreeing with everything that President 0:10:40.440 --> 0:10:44.240 Putin said. We had something different today from President Trump 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:46.960 in the Oval Office. And by the way, it was 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:50.079 a great relief that there was a successful meeting between 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:53.000 President Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office when you 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:56.480 think back to the last time that President Zelensky was there. 0:10:56.960 --> 0:10:59.560 But the fact that President Trump was willing to say 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:03.760 that the UN West would consider security guarantees to Ukraine 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:08.200 were there to be a peace agreement, and even you know, 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:12.720 possibly supplying more military assistance to Ukraine. This is not 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:16.320 something that we heard on Friday in Alaska. And Putin 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:19.920 has already come out today and said that the Russia 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:24.000 would not accept any Western troops in Ukraine. He's in 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:27.000 fact said that before, he reiterated that now. So it 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:30.360 just makes one wonder whether Putin would be really willing 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:34.160 to sit down with President Zelenski and presumably President Trump 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:38.640 as well, to sincerely negotiate an enter this war. 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:43.079 Doctor sent the two world leaders, Trump and Putin. They 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:47.040 met on Friday for hours on end this meeting that 0:11:47.080 --> 0:11:49.640 we've seen so far, at least between Zelenski and Trump. 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:53.880 It was only about thirty minutes. What is your take 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:59.000 on really who came out stronger after the Alaska meeting. 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:01.040 Was this a win for Putin? 0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:04.280 Well, I would argue that it was largely a win 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:07.560 for Putin. I mean, here is an indicted war criminal 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:12.760 being given the red carpet treatment, literally arriving in the 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.400 United States meeting with the President of the United States. 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.240 He hadn't had a meeting with the President of the 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.400 United States since two thousand and seven on US soil. 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:27.240 And you had President Trump going into the meeting saying 0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:30.760 that a ceasefire had to precede negotiations, and he came 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:34.000 out saying, no, We'll go right to the negotiations without 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:36.360 a ceasefire. And the reason why Putin doesn't want a 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:38.960 cease fire is because he wants to go on fighting. 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:41.960 In fact, as all these talks are going on in Washington, 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:46.160 the Russians are bombarding the Ukrainians. So it definitely seemed 0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:49.400 from that Friday meeting that Putin had won a great deal. 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:51.720 And if you look at the Russian media, I mean, 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:55.240 they were quite ecstatic after this meeting because they said, 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:57.560 you know, finally we're back to where we wanted. The 0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:01.240 Russians a great power and Putin God is meeting with 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:02.679 the American president. 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:09.360 And potentially President Putin gets some land from Ukraine at 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.079 the conclusion of this conflict. Do you think that will happen, 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:14.719 doctor Stan, I think it's going to. 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:16.840 Be very difficult. By the way, when you hear the 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.960 phrase land swap, there's no land swap, right. I mean, 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:23.199 the Russians want the Ukrainians to concede or to see 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:26.160 territory to them that they don't control, and this is 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:31.480 quite strategic territory. Were the Ukrainians to see that, they'd 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:35.040 be in a weaker position. So I think that they 0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:38.280 would only get that if the Ukrainians really feel that 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:41.880 they have iron clad guarantees as much as that's possible 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:46.480 from the US and from our European allies to deter 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:49.760 Russia from any future attack. So I think that would 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:50.760 probably depend on it. 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:54.839 What would those what would those guarantees be if up 0:13:54.880 --> 0:14:02.280 to now there have been no repercussions apart from sanctions 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:07.680 or even secondary sanctions on Russia as a result of 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:09.880 what it's done in Ukraine. 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:14.280 Yeah, so they're now talking about Article five type guarantees. 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:18.040 Article five is you know the essence of the NATO alliance, 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:20.760 which is, if one member is attacked, the other members 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:24.040 will come to its defense, as NATO did after nine 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:28.080 eleven when the US was attacked. And I'm not sure 0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:32.600 that anyone really believes that if Russia were, say to 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:36.960 attack Ukraine again, you would have the guaranteurs then get 0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:39.760 into a war with Russia, because you always come back 0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:43.080 to the question that Russia is a nuclear power and 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:48.280 everything that that involves. So it's still difficult to understand 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:52.640 what security guarantees would mean in this situation. Maybe at 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.920 a minimum would mean sort of arming Ukraine to the teeth, 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:59.040 and the Ukrainian army is now very strong anyway, as 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:02.280 a way of deter Russia. If the Russians really think 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:06.680 as they mistakenly thought that the Ukrainians would capitulate when 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:09.520 they invaded in twenty twenty two, if now they believe 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.280 that if they invaded again, they really would be faced 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:15.360 with a very strong Ukrainian army that could push them back, 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:20.080 maybe that's a security guarantee. It really is harder to 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:22.520 imagine any other one that would be credible. 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:26.400 How should we be thinking about territory right now? Is 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:30.200 it fair to say that Ukraine is going to have 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:33.560 to seed some territory in order for the war to end. 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:37.680 I think what the Ukrainians will have to do at 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:42.680 a minimum is to recognize that Russia does now occupy 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:46.640 twenty percent of Ukraine. That doesn't mean dejure recognition, but 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:51.000 they factor does. But that's without sealing more territory to Russia. 0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.560 I think the Ukrains won't have any choice if the 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.480 war is to end, but for the time being, to 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.080 have that land under Russian occupation. 0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:04.920 What would this land symbolize to Europe as a result 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:09.920 of Russia's ambitions on the continent. The idea that Ukraine 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:13.800 excuse me, that Russia could go to war with the 0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:17.800 country and even yes, after a three and a half year, 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.880 very bloody and terrible war for both sides, end with 0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:24.960 additional territory. 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:29.000 I mean, it's a terrible precedent because since World War Two, 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:31.480 this is the first time you've had a major war 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:35.200 with a land drop like that, entirely unprovoked. So the 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:38.560 president for the Europeans, I think would be very worrying, 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:46.040 and particularly so those former Soviet states, either Baltic states 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:49.400 or former members of the Warsaw packed Poland for instance, 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:52.320 that are in the vicinity there and where we know 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:56.440 that certainly Russia might have designed certainly on the Baltic States. 0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.400 So it's a very dangerous president, not only for Europe 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:01.640 but really for the rest of the world, that a 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:04.560 land grab light that unprovoked goes unpunished. 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:07.880 We're speaking right now with doctor Angelis stan senior fellow 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:10.879 at the Burkings Institution, the author of Putin's World Russia 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:14.239 against the West, and with the rest doctor Stent. Does 0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:16.280 it set a precedent for what could happen to a 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:19.440 country like Poland? For example? Is it crazy for us 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:26.760 to think that that Putin would I mean, the whole 0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:29.119 narrative right in the last few years and at the 0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:31.760 beginning of this was what's to stop him moving past 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:34.359 Ukraine and into greater Europe? Is that a realistic thing 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:36.920 for us to talk about or is that something that 0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:37.800 would never happen? 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:42.320 So? I think Poland is a member of NATO and 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:46.399 therefore so far right until this point, Russia has not 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:50.320 directly attacked a NATO member state, you know, which leads 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:53.560 to the argument, correct, I think that had Ukraine been 0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:56.000 a member of NATO, Russia wouldn't have attacked it. But 0:17:56.119 --> 0:17:58.560 we now know that NATO membership at the moment is 0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:03.199 off the table for Ukra, So it would be unprecedented 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:08.040 because again, if Russia were to try to invade Poland, 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:11.439 then you would have NATO Article Fight guarantees, and then 0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:16.119 you could have a major war between Russia and NATO, 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:18.600 which of course includes the United States and the two 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:23.600 nuclear superpowers, which would be potentially very dangerous. 0:18:24.119 --> 0:18:27.960 Trump has said that Putin wants to see the war ended. 0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:31.280 I'm wondering in your view if you think Putin is 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:33.800 showing any sense of urgency to end it. 0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:39.200 Putin's not showing any signs of urgency. Putin only wants 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:41.760 the war to end on his terms, and right now, 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.359 his terms are very different than what President Trump and 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:48.320 the European leaders and President Zelenski are discussing, because he 0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:51.600 wants Ukraine to see all of this in this territory. 0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:55.399 He wants Ukraine to cut down on the size of 0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:59.600 its military, to promise that it will never join NATO, 0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:05.399 and so essentially he wants the war to end with 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:09.560 Ukraine's subjugation. And that's not what's on the table today 0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:10.280 at the White House. 0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:14.760 One thing that I found noticeable today was that the 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.879 topic of children in this conflict, and it's not something 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:21.040 that's we talk about every day. We probably should talk 0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:25.960 about it every day. We had President Zelensky talk about 0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:28.960 a letter that he received from the First Lady of 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:34.000 the US, Millennia Trump. On this subject, the President mentioned 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:37.720 children in the conflict. We had European commissioned President Ursula 0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:41.200 vonder lyon mentioned children in the conflict. 0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:43.560 Is the narrative shifting a little bit? 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:48.000 So? First of all, the letter that he was talking 0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:50.520 about was actually a letter that the First Lady of 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:54.080 the United States wrote to Putin and which President Trump 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:56.159 gave to Putin at the summit, which had to do 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:59.960 with children. I think it's unfortunate that in many ways 0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:04.040 the US media haven't talked about this enough. The Russians 0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:08.680 have abducted about twenty thousand Ukrainian children, taken them away 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:12.119 from their families, forced them either into the occupied areas 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:16.359 of Ukraine or to Russia, trying to annihilate their Ukrainian identity. 0:20:16.960 --> 0:20:19.440 And by the way, this is part of a broader problem, 0:20:19.600 --> 0:20:22.159 which is the way that the Russians are treating Ukrainians 0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:26.440 in the occupied areas which right Russia now controls, which 0:20:26.520 --> 0:20:30.840 is treating them very badly, to put it mildly. It's 0:20:30.920 --> 0:20:33.280 good that this has now come up to this level, 0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:36.520 and that the First Lady of Ukraine has apparently written 0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:39.520 a letter to the US First Lady thanking her for 0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:43.280 bringing this up. But I think there should be much 0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:47.679 more focus on the humanitarian catastrophe that has befallen so 0:20:47.760 --> 0:20:53.919 many Ukrainians in this war. What do you mean by that, Well, 0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:56.679 just the first of all, the abduction of children, the 0:20:56.720 --> 0:21:01.600 bombing of civilians, the bombing of maternity hospital, all of 0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:04.080 the things that the Russians have done in terms of 0:21:04.119 --> 0:21:08.919 their attacks on Ukraine. You know what it's done to families, 0:21:09.000 --> 0:21:13.879 the thousands and millions of refugees really and displace people. 0:21:13.960 --> 0:21:16.480 All of that is part of this war, and we 0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:19.840 probably don't read enough about that or see enough in the. 0:21:19.840 --> 0:21:24.159 Media, right And these are attacks that are ongoing do 0:21:24.320 --> 0:21:27.399 this day, even as we have the leaders coming together 0:21:27.920 --> 0:21:31.120 and talking about, you know, a potential end to the war. 0:21:32.400 --> 0:21:37.040 What would an end look like? Is a ceasefire something 0:21:37.200 --> 0:21:40.639 that you know we should be paying closer attention to 0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:45.560 would a ceasefire stop the fighting and these humanitarian issues 0:21:45.600 --> 0:21:46.800 that you bring up. 0:21:47.680 --> 0:21:50.840 Well, a ceasefire might if it were properly observed. But 0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:53.240 even then, if even if they did say, well we 0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:56.560 agree to a cease fire, it has to be properly implemented. 0:21:56.600 --> 0:21:59.720 It has to be properly monitored, so that in itself, 0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:03.680 you know, could be more complicated. And the thing about 0:22:03.760 --> 0:22:06.800