WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Barry Eichengreen & Emily Roland

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Single best idea to

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<v Speaker 1>get you into a Memorial Day weekend, I will be honest,

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<v Speaker 1>you slide it on a Friday. Many people are off today.

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<v Speaker 1>We're very fortunate we were fully staffed because the world

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<v Speaker 1>fell apart in the vicinity of four am and then

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<v Speaker 1>seven am. President Trump put out two extraordinary sets of

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<v Speaker 1>tweets on Apple computer manufacturing in India, and then, of

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<v Speaker 1>course in the European Union. All of us senate around

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<v Speaker 1>David Weston's important conversation with a Secretary of Treasury twelve

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<v Speaker 1>moonish today. We were so fortunate we made her luck

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<v Speaker 1>Berry Eike Green of Berkeley scheduled in his very early

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<v Speaker 1>West Coast morning. He is the giant of international economist

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<v Speaker 1>Ken Rogoff mentions him in his new book, My Book

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<v Speaker 1>of the Summer. Here is Barry Chingreen on the fragile dollar.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the dollar has been tarnished significantly since Liberation Day.

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<v Speaker 2>It's safe haven status is eroding more quickly than before.

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<v Speaker 2>I've long thought that the dollar would have to share

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<v Speaker 2>the international stage with other currencies. I didn't think that

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<v Speaker 2>would that process would accelerate so grammatically this year I

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<v Speaker 2>think that the markets have responded to the ninety day

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<v Speaker 2>pause in the UK deal by thinking that the period

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<v Speaker 2>of elevated uncertainty is over. And exactly as you said before,

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<v Speaker 2>uncertainty and the spike in the Vicks continue. We haven't

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<v Speaker 2>really seen that spill over into distress in financial markets,

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<v Speaker 2>but I think that distress could be coming. I think

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<v Speaker 2>what's happening in the cryptosphere could spill over into mainstream

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<v Speaker 2>financial markets. There's a lot to worry about that hasn't materialized.

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<v Speaker 1>From the University of California at Berkeley, iconic very iik Ingreen.

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<v Speaker 1>I will try this weekend to get out a select

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<v Speaker 1>set of his books. Exorbitant Privilege was a wonderful short

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<v Speaker 1>treatise on the US dollar, and of course his classic

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<v Speaker 1>book from decades ago, Golden Fetters, defined the twentieth century

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<v Speaker 1>of gold, defining the equity market. What a joy this

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<v Speaker 1>morning to speak to Emily Rowland of John Hancock. She

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<v Speaker 1>really pushed against a lot of the fears, maybe the

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<v Speaker 1>sum of all our fears, if you will, and optimistic

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<v Speaker 1>Emily Rowland of John Hancock.

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<v Speaker 3>Investors are really trading on feelings and not facts. This

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<v Speaker 3>is a sentiment driven market, whether it's sell everything US,

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<v Speaker 3>whether that's stocks, bonds, dollars. But when you look underneath

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<v Speaker 3>the hood at the facts earnings growth most importantly to

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<v Speaker 3>US and the US We just saw Q one earnings

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<v Speaker 3>come in at fourteen percent. Nine percent is what analysts

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<v Speaker 3>are penciling in for the year. You look over at Europe.

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<v Speaker 3>Earning's growth this quarter was negative eight percent, and analysts

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<v Speaker 3>are revising down earnings estimates to around three percent. In Europe,

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<v Speaker 3>you look at the front, the macro backdrop, and the

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<v Speaker 3>United States growth is holding in the city economic surprise

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<v Speaker 3>index is actually perking up. The hard data is coming

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<v Speaker 3>in positive. We're seeing the opposite happen in Europe as

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<v Speaker 3>their data is coming in weaker. Growth is struggling overseas.

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<v Speaker 3>Yet you've seen this massive capital rotation out of the

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<v Speaker 3>US into Europe. We would fade it and use those

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<v Speaker 3>proceeds to invest in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>Emily Roland with a different view there from so many

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<v Speaker 1>of hers. She's the strategy at John Hancock really has

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<v Speaker 1>been right the last twenty four to thirty six months

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<v Speaker 1>about the ability to buy quality and large cap growth

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<v Speaker 1>in America. She stays with that theme today right now

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<v Speaker 1>in your commute across the nation. Apple Android coming on strong.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you for that one thing I learned this week.

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<v Speaker 1>Shout out to PIMCO for a wonderful event earlier this week,

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<v Speaker 1>and I learned there Serious XM Channel one one. It's

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<v Speaker 1>older technology and people are wedded to it. They like

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<v Speaker 1>it a lot. We thank you on Serious XM for

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