WEBVTT - A Requiem for Prabhakar Raghavan 0:00:02.840 --> 0:00:06.800 Zone Media, Hello, and welcome to Better Offline. 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:08.160 I'm your host ed zetron. 0:00:19.800 --> 0:00:22.880 When Princess Diana died in nineteen ninety seven, Elton John 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:25.680 Rey wrote his famous song Candle in the Wind, changing. 0:00:25.400 --> 0:00:26.960 The lyrics subtly. As a tribune. 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:29.639 I did the same thing for this episode about Prabagar 0:00:29.760 --> 0:00:32.760 Ragavan of Google. However, when I told cool Zone Media 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:35.479 about my plans, Robert Evans threatened me with and I quote, 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.360 a trip to the Carnival prison and then sent me 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:41.160 a low quality jpeg of a gun. As a result, 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:43.519 I will be neglecting to release Candle in the Toilet 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:46.680 for the time being. Nevertheless, it's both my duty and 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:50.000 my pleasure to reveal that Prabagar Ragavan, one of Better 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:53.240 Offline's most notorious villains and the former head of Google Search, 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:57.680 was relieved of duty last week, becoming Google's first chief technologist. 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:01.440 Now it's very important to know. It's an important rule 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:04.040 to follow with somebody's title in silicon value that if 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:06.920 you can't tell what it means, it probably doesn't mean anything. 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:08.640 With the notorious example. 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:13.200 Of AOL Shingy their digital profit being my favorite, although 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:16.360 this one's a little less ridiculous. Ragavan has likely been 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.760 given a ceremonial title in the job that involves and 0:01:18.840 --> 0:01:22.200 I quote, partnering closely with Sundharpishai and providing technical direction, 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:27.200 you know, as opposed to actually leading it. If you're confused, forgetful, 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:29.120 or just love hearing me speak, let me give you 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:32.200 a brief rundown of who Brabagar Ragavan is or indeed was. 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:35.840 Back in April, I ran probably my most well known episode, 0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:39.000 the Man that destroyed Google Search using emails, revealed as 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:41.480 part of the Department of Justice is antitrust trial against 0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:44.720 Google over their monopoly over Search. I told the tale 0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:47.319 of how Prabagar Ragavan, then Google's head of Ads, let 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:49.280 a coup that began the slow descent of the world's 0:01:49.280 --> 0:01:53.200 most important website towards its kind of broken, half working, 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:55.040 shitty thing that you see today and have for the 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:58.080 last few years. The key event in the podcast was 0:01:58.120 --> 0:02:01.320 a code yellow crisis declared in twenty nineteen by Google's 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:05.080 ads and finance teams, which had forecast a disappointing quarter. Indeed, 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.520 in response, Prabagar Ragavan pushed out Ben Gomes, then the 0:02:08.560 --> 0:02:11.679 head of Search, and a genuine pioneer in search technology, 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:13.959 by the way, he'd been there forever, and he pushed 0:02:14.000 --> 0:02:16.359 him to increase the number of queries people made by 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:20.280 any means necessary. Now you may think queries on Google 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:23.200 is that such a bad thing. Well, when you're optimizing 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:25.520 a search engine to make people search more rather than 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:28.120 getting than the search engine results they need, you're doing 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:29.959 so that they can see more ads. 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:30.919 It's not great. 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:33.680 And though it's not clear what was done to resolve 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:36.880 the so called query softness that Ragavan demanded was reversed, 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:40.120 I hypothesized one of the moves involved rolling back changes 0:02:40.160 --> 0:02:44.160 to search that suppress spami content. Google has since denied 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:46.720 this in a response to my newsletter, despite the fact 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:48.880 that emails revealed as part of the same Department of 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:52.400 Justice trial, revealed that Jerry Dishler, Ragavan's deputy at Google 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:56.000 Ads at the time, specifically discussed rollbacks as a means 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:59.480 of increasing queries. And what's also lovely about this in 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:02.400 old to this in the notes, by the way, is 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:06.639 their response didn't really attack anything I had to say. 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:08.919 They just say, oh, oh, it's ridiculous what he said. 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:12.120 They refuse to give any true data. But I'm going 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:14.359 to quote the man that destroyed Google searching now to 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:17.680 kind of run this down. The March twenty nineteen core 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:19.919 update to Search, which happened about a week before at 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:22.080 the end of the code Yellow, was expected to be 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.520 and I quote, one of the largest updates to Search 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:27.240 in a very long time. Yet when it launched, many 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:30.040 found that the update mostly rolled back changes and traffic 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:33.000 was increasing to sites that had previously been suppressed by 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:37.240 Google Search's Penguin update from twenty twelve that specifically targeted 0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:40.040 spammy search results, as well as those hit by an 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:42.680 update from August first, twenty eighteen, a few months after 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:46.280 Ben Gomes became head of Search. Prabagar Ragavan was made 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:48.080 head of Search a little over a year later in 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:50.800 June twenty twenty, and it's pretty obvious how big a 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:54.120 decline Google Search has taken since then. Results are filled 0:03:54.120 --> 0:03:57.480 with SEO garbage that search engine optimization by the way, 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:01.440 ads sponsored content that it's pretty much impossible to tell 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.880 from regular results, and the disastrous launch of Google's AI 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:08.760 powered summaries, which produced results that range from hilarious like 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:11.400 telling you to eat rocks or life threatening like telling 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:13.840 you a mushroom is safe. To eat that will kill you. 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:17.280 And I think the Probagar Ragavan's reign at Google can 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:20.240 be seen as an illustration of much larger problems at 0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:22.760 the company. Now for the next bit, please take a 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:25.920 look at the episode notes and go to TinyURL dot 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:27.599 com slash B one O two. 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:27.720 Oh. 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:30.080 This will be in the notes because you're gonna want 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:32.159 to look at the chart I'm referencing. But I'm really 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:33.960 going to try my hardest to get the most of 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:36.159 it out verbally as well. If you're driving your car, 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:38.760 if you're currently prizing open a window to steal a 0:04:38.800 --> 0:04:41.279 granny's purse from her car, I'll get it. I'll get 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:45.160 em anyway. When Propagar Ragavan took over Search in Q 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:48.160 three twenty twenty, Google had just experienced its first decline 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:51.239 in year over year quarterly growth since Q four twenty twelve, 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:53.719 a one point sixty six percent decline in growth that 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:56.600 was followed by a remarkable recovery with double digit year 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:58.880 of a year growth just as Prabagar turned the screws 0:04:58.880 --> 0:05:02.400 on Search to a ridiculous sixty one point five eight 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:05.920 percent year over year growth in Q three twenty twenty one. 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:11.120 Then things began to slow every quarter saw progressively lower growth, 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:13.360 reaching in the deer in Q four twenty twenty two, 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:16.400 when Google experienced a mere point ninety six percent year 0:05:16.440 --> 0:05:18.839 of year growth, something that one might be able to 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:21.240 blame on the end of the opulent post vaccine spending 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:24.400 we saw across the entire economy, or the spiraling rates 0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:28.680 of inflation seeing world wide. Maybe it could be something else, right, 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:33.120 and you'd assume, big deal, work this out right, they'll 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:35.560 recover as the wider economy did. Right. 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:38.000 Not so much. 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:42.000 While Google experienced the degree of recovery in its growth rates, 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:43.960 it took until Q three twenty twenty three to hit 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:46.840 double digit growth again eleven percent year every year, hitting 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:48.920 a high of fifteen point four one percent in Q 0:05:48.960 --> 0:05:51.880 two twenty twenty four, before trending down again in Q 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:56.000 three twenty twenty four to thirteen point five nine percent. 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:59.239 The reason these numbers are important is that growth drives 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:02.520 everything at Google, and prabagar Ragavan drove the most consistent 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:05.600 growth engine in the company, Search, which grew fourteen percent 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:07.960 year of a year in Q one twenty twenty four, 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:12.800 right up until he stopped piloting it. The context is 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:15.440 key to understanding is I don't know if you call 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:18.200 it a promotion, a demotion, or just a room with 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:20.440 no door handle on it which they put him in 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.800 every morning. But this title is most assurdedly not a 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:27.039 chief technology officer or any kind of officer or executive 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:30.840 at all. Google has, for the most part, enjoyed one 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:33.640 of the most incredible runs in business history, with almost 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:37.040 an entire decade of twenty percent year over year growth, 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:39.679 with a few exceptions such as Q four twenty twelve, 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:42.560 a few months after Ragavan began at Google, where he 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:46.120 started in ads to Q three twenty thirteen, a chaotic 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:48.880 period where Google fell behind Amazon in shopping at revenue, 0:06:48.960 --> 0:06:52.200 bought Motorola Mobility for twelve point five billion dollars and 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:54.520 by the way, that's sixty three percent more than its 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:57.600 trading price, and then they saw a fifteen percent year 0:06:57.640 --> 0:06:59.800 of a year decline in pricing for their search hands. 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:03.160 Google's earnings also leaked early in this period, which was 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:06.200 not a lot of fun for Google at all. But 0:07:06.279 --> 0:07:09.560 growth is slowing again and it isn't showing any signs 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:11.840 of returning to the heady days where seventy percent year 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:15.400 over year growth each quarter was considered bad Google has 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:18.080 deliberately made its products worse as a means of increasing 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:21.280 revenue and increasing growth, spawning a trend of both remarkable 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:25.640 revenue growth and worsening search results. That study exactly when 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:29.640 Prapagar Ragavan took the wheel. The chart I'm quoting tells 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:32.760 another story too, though, that twisting Google Search to make 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:35.440 it more profitable only worked for a little bit before 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:39.280 growth began to slow again. Recklessness and desperation begets only 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:42.600 more recklessness and desperation. And you'll notice that Google's aggressive 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:45.920 push into Ai followed its dismal Q four twenty twenty 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:48.560 two quarter where it nearly fell into negative growth, and 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:50.280 when you in factor in inflation. 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:50.720 It actually did. 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:03.840 Now if you forgive the mixed metaphors, Google has essentially 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:06.360 killed its golden ghost Search and now is in the 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.760 process of pawning its eggs to buy decidedly non magical 0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:13.280 beans in this case, I mean data centers and GPUs. 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:16.200 With Google increasing its capital expenditures in the financial year 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:19.320 twenty twenty four to fifty billion dollars, equivalent to nearly 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:22.320 double its average CAPEX from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:26.200 three since becoming head of Search, Ragavan has also become 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:29.040 the silent leader of most of Google's other revenue centers, 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:33.560 Google Ads, Google Shopping Maps, and eventually Gemini, Google's chet 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:37.079 GPT competitor, which might also explain why he's now been 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:40.960 pought in the naughty chair. You see, twenty twenty four 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:43.160 wasn't a great year for Google, and it was a 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:46.880 much worse one for prabagar Ragavan, starting in February when 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:51.560 Gemini their large language model generated racially diverse Nazis and, 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:55.000 among other things, a mess that prabagar Ragavan himself had 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:57.800 to apologize for. This man never pokes his head up, 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:01.400 but he had to in February. A few months later, 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:04.520 Google introduced AI powered search summaries that told users to 0:09:04.559 --> 0:09:06.920 eat rocks and put glue on pizza, which only caused 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:09.760 people to remember exactly how bad Google Search had got 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:11.920 and laugh at how the only way that Google seemed 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:14.040 to be able to innovate was to make it worse. 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:18.280 Ragavan is being replaced by Nick Fox, a former McKinsey 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:20.840 guy who, in the emails I called attention to in 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:23.520 the podcast I've been talking about, told Ben Gomes that 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:26.440 making Google Search more profitable was and I quote the 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.560 new reality of their jobs, to which Ben Gomes responded 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:31.640 by saying that he was concerned that growth was all 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:32.920 that Google was thinking about. 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:36.040 Yeah, happy, terrible, warn't them now. 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:39.559 Nick Fox has to quote Google CEO Sandabashi been instrumental 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:42.480 in shaping Google's AI product road map, which suggests that 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:45.200 Google is going all in on artificial intelligence at a 0:09:45.240 --> 0:09:47.800 time when developers are struggling to justify using its models 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:50.160 and are actively mad at both the way in which 0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:52.200 it markets them and the way in which they're integrated 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:56.120 into Google's other products. I'm hypothesizing here, but I think 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:58.840 that Google is desperate, and that its earnings on October 0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:00.280 thirtieth likely to make the. 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:01.480 Street more than a little worried. 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.120 The medium to long term prognosis is likely even worse two, 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:08.439 As the Wall Street Journal notes, Google's ads business is 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:10.760 expected to dip below a fifty percent market share in 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:12.720 the US in the next year for the first time 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:15.080 in more than a decade, which, by the way, was 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.640 right around where things were kind of bad for them, 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:22.160 and Google's gratuitous monopoly oversearch and likely ads, by the way, 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:24.440 is coming to an end. It's not an if, it's 0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:27.920 a when it's more likely that Google sees AIS a 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:31.080 fundamental part of their future growth, despite the fact that 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:34.040 this thing only loses money and people really don't like it. 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:38.320 As part of the Ragavan reorganization, Google is also moving 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:41.000 the Gemini app team, the one handling the chat GPT 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:44.280 competitor I've been talking about under AI research group Deep Mind, 0:10:44.360 --> 0:10:46.240 a move that might be kind of smart in the 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:48.760 hand the AI to the AI people kind of way, 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:51.400 but also suggests that there's just this degree of disarray 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:54.400 at the company, and I don't think that's getting better 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:58.319 in a hurry. You see, Ragavan was powerful and for 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:01.800 a time successful. He ruled with nine fist, warning employees 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:04.200 a few months ago to prepare for a different market 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:07.439 reality because and I quote things were not like they 0:11:07.480 --> 0:11:10.040 were fifteen to twenty years ago. Yeah, back when he 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:13.160 worked at Yahoo. And he then would proceed to say 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:15.080 that he was shortening the amount of time that his 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:17.760 reports would have to work on certain projects, according to 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.640 Jennifer Elius of CNBC, which is exactly the kind of 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:23.319 move you make when things are going poorly. This also 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:25.920 kind of reflects things that I've heard from internal Googlers, 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:28.200 whether the resources are going to AI or they're going 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:30.640 nowhere else. The same deal with Microsoft. We're in a 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:34.480 group delusion, folks. It's not brilliant. But let's get back 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:37.520 to the other fella. Replacing Gragavan is Nick Fox, a 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:40.000 man who has only worked to either McKinsey or Google. 0:11:40.040 --> 0:11:41.880 And I am not kidding, by the way. He was 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:43.840 at McKinsey for a few years then has been at 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:47.800 Google ever since. It's completely bonkers. And I mean, this 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.000 is the kind of move you make putting a guy 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:52.280 like Nick Fox on top. It's something you do because 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:54.640 you don't know what to do, and somebody needed to 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:57.760 get fired or moved into the naughty box. Something had 0:11:57.760 --> 0:12:02.200 to change, and well it was. And what's crazy is 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:04.360 that you think they'd find a guy with a history 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.560 of success with a product that people love, that's doing 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.120 really well, that's making a bunch of money, right, Well, 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:12.080 you'd be wrong because Nick Fox is most famous for 0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:15.920 running Google's Assistant business, which if you google how customers 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:19.240 feel about it. They hate it, and it's really just 0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:22.320 famous for kind of sucking and literally making them no money. 0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:27.400 Google Assistant is a loss loss, lossy, lossy product. It 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:30.480 loses so much money, like a bunch of other assistant companies. 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:34.120 Look at Amazon Alexa losing them over ten billion dollars. 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:37.320 It's ridiculous. This is the guy who's running Google's revenue. 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:40.160 I'm scared, well, not scared. It would be kind of 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:43.280 funny if Google started collapsing. I'd enjoy watching. Or I 0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:47.240 don't know, they could make themselves better. Who knows. Anyway, 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:50.360 I'd argue there's a compelling case that can be made 0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:53.560 that we're watching the slow, painful collapse of this company. 0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:59.040 Google was at one point known for making these transformational, 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.480 beloved products, and then they chose to put people in 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:04.720 power to make them worse, to make them more money. 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:08.320 And maybe what we're watching here is kind of the 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:11.240 net result of the rot economy. When a rot economist 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:14.040 is given the wheel, you get these early pops when 0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:17.800 things are going well. Number go up, so far, so hard, 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.720 number so good, so big. We love number. But the 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.800 problem is, if you're just destroying the products, if you're 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:28.040 squeezing your customers, if you're invading their lives more as 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:30.840 a means of making this money, what do you fall 0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:33.559 back on when growth goes away? How do you inspire 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:37.319 your customers when things suck ass. The answer is you don't. 0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:41.600 And just like the rest of the hyperscalers, Google has 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:44.400 not had a meaningful new product in over a decade, 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:47.439 and its most meaningful acquisition in years involved paying two 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:51.120 point seven billion dollars to buy Character to Ai to 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:54.040 hire back a guy who quit because he was mad 0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:56.360 that Google wouldn't release an early version of a large 0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:58.959 language model in twenty twenty or twenty twenty one. It's 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:02.240 unclear when that happened, and non Shazier was sudden they 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:05.200 shouldn't have let go, But at the same time, it's like, 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:09.400 is this guy really going to turn things around? Seriously, 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:11.960 Google is just a company bereft of vision, and they're 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:14.920 incapable of making money without their monopolies, and they're just 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:18.560 flailing wildly in the hopes that's copying everybody else's shit 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:22.560 will make them good, will save them from perdition, or 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:26.320 maybe stop the Department of Justice breaking them up, which 0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:28.960 is I think is going to happen, albeit it might 0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:32.560 take a while. No, Google is exactly the monster that 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:35.080 Sundar Pashai and Propagar Ragavan wanted it to be. 0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:36.960 This lumbering, ugly. 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:40.000 Private equity vehicle that uses its crooked money machine to 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:43.200 demolish smaller players, except there are no more hyper growth 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.920 markets left to throw the billions at, and now they're 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:48.760 left with generative AI, a technology that lacks any mass 0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:53.120 market utility and burns cash with every single prompt. I 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.480 know it's a bit dramatic to suggest that we're watching 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:58.120 Google die, but I've done it with Facebook, so why 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:03.240 not today? Seriously, Probagar Ragavan's time at Google coming to 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:05.480 an end is a sign that they've realized that something 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.080 is broken, that they know something has to change. But 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:10.600 it also is a sign that this company doesn't know 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.520 what has to change because they put a fucking McKinsey 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:15.560 guy at the top. And yes, I know he's more 0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:17.840 a Google guy than a McKinsey guy. But if you 0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:19.400 look back at the emails, and I will link to 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:21.600 them in the notes, you will see that Nick Fox 0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:23.560 was not on the side of Ben Gomes or shashy 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:26.400 Thakha and the people trying to save Google Search from 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:29.800 the rot economists. No, Nick Fox is as much. He's 0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:32.280 just as bad as Probagar Ragavan, except he has a 0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:36.480 worse tenure at Google. Google Assistant sucks. It's not a 0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:40.200 great product. They're shoving AI into it. I get emails 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:41.920 every week from someone saying, can you do a thing 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:45.040 on Google Assistant. I don't want to, because all I'd 0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:47.800 be saying for half an hour is Google Assistant is crap. 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:51.320 Google Assistant is getting worse. Everyone's mad at Google Assistant. 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:54.360 Why is Google Assistant so bad? And the well, I 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:56.480 actually don't have an answer for that. But I do 0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:59.560 have an answer for who's running all of Google's stuff now, 0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:02.120 who's running Google Search and a bunch of other things. 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:05.120 It's the guy who made the extremely unprofitable thing that 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:07.960 people hate, that's an also ran of other companies. 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:08.280 Shit. 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:12.520 That is the guy in charge now. And I just 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:16.160 believe that Google is falling apart at the seams. Google 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:18.560 does not know what to do anymore. And I'm really 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:21.920 I'm going to tail gave the October thirtieth earnings. I'm 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.040 going to crack a beer. I'm going to listen to 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:26.360 the call. It's going to be very exciting because I 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:28.080 don't think it's going to be very good at all. 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:30.720 They're going to try put lipstick on the pig. They're 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:32.960 going to try and claim this growth in AI and 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:34.920 maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I look like a bell end 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.760 for the eight hundredth time in my life, but I 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:40.680 don't think I am, and I think we're in probably 0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:43.320 one of the most interesting, exciting and horrible eras of 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:45.760 tech so far, where we're going to watch one of 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:48.880 these companies collapse. And collapsing might not be as neat 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:52.200 as the whole company dies, but the fracturing, the talent, 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:55.240 the brain drain, you're watching it happen now. We've been 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.000 watching it for years. And the results well, I mean, 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:00.520 look at Google Search, look at Google's products. How bad 0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:04.720 they are now? And that's the thing. You think that 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:08.919 these companies can't die, And it's probably because dying is 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:13.040 a relative term for them. You're watching the disease work 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:15.600 through Google as we speak. Prabagar leaving is not a 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:17.600 good thing for the company. It's just the sign that 0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:19.800 they don't know what to do. And we're watching the 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:23.760 fall of Rome. We really are, I'm sure of it. 0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:26.640 It might take ten years, but it will be fascinating 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:29.040 to watch and fascinating to tell you about. And it's 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:31.520 been my pleasure to tell you about. How much of 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:34.199 it you can credit to Prabagar Ragavan the man who 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:45.560 destroyed Google Search. Thank you for listening to Better Offline. 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:48.120 The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song 0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:50.840 is Matasowski. You can check out more of his music 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:54.359 and audio projects at Mattasowski dot com, m A. T. 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:59.560 T OsO w Ski dot com. You can email me 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.240 at easy at Better offline dot com or visit Better 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:04.720 Offline dot com to find more podcast links and of course, 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:07.840 my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.520 dot Where's youread dot at to visit the discord, and 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:11.880 go to our slash Better. 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:14.840 Offline to check out I'll Reddit. Thank you so much 0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:15.399 for listening. 0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:18.919 Better Offline is a production of cool Zone Media. For 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:22.200 more from cool Zone Media, visit our website cool Zonemedia 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:25.120 dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.840 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.