1 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Zone Media, Hello, and welcome to Better Offline. 2 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 2: I'm your host ed zetron. 3 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: When Princess Diana died in nineteen ninety seven, Elton John 4 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Rey wrote his famous song Candle in the Wind, changing. 5 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 2: The lyrics subtly. As a tribune. 6 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,639 Speaker 1: I did the same thing for this episode about Prabagar 7 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: Ragavan of Google. However, when I told cool Zone Media 8 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 1: about my plans, Robert Evans threatened me with and I quote, 9 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 1: a trip to the Carnival prison and then sent me 10 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 1: a low quality jpeg of a gun. As a result, 11 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:43,519 Speaker 1: I will be neglecting to release Candle in the Toilet 12 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: for the time being. Nevertheless, it's both my duty and 13 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: my pleasure to reveal that Prabagar Ragavan, one of Better 14 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 1: Offline's most notorious villains and the former head of Google Search, 15 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: was relieved of duty last week, becoming Google's first chief technologist. 16 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 1: Now it's very important to know. It's an important rule 17 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: to follow with somebody's title in silicon value that if 18 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: you can't tell what it means, it probably doesn't mean anything. 19 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 2: With the notorious example. 20 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: Of AOL Shingy their digital profit being my favorite, although 21 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: this one's a little less ridiculous. Ragavan has likely been 22 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 1: given a ceremonial title in the job that involves and 23 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 1: I quote, partnering closely with Sundharpishai and providing technical direction, 24 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: you know, as opposed to actually leading it. If you're confused, forgetful, 25 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,120 Speaker 1: or just love hearing me speak, let me give you 26 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 1: a brief rundown of who Brabagar Ragavan is or indeed was. 27 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 1: Back in April, I ran probably my most well known episode, 28 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: the Man that destroyed Google Search using emails, revealed as 29 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: part of the Department of Justice is antitrust trial against 30 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: Google over their monopoly over Search. I told the tale 31 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 1: of how Prabagar Ragavan, then Google's head of Ads, let 32 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 1: a coup that began the slow descent of the world's 33 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: most important website towards its kind of broken, half working, 34 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 1: shitty thing that you see today and have for the 35 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: last few years. The key event in the podcast was 36 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: a code yellow crisis declared in twenty nineteen by Google's 37 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: ads and finance teams, which had forecast a disappointing quarter. Indeed, 38 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 1: in response, Prabagar Ragavan pushed out Ben Gomes, then the 39 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:11,679 Speaker 1: head of Search, and a genuine pioneer in search technology, 40 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:13,959 Speaker 1: by the way, he'd been there forever, and he pushed 41 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,359 Speaker 1: him to increase the number of queries people made by 42 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: any means necessary. Now you may think queries on Google 43 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: is that such a bad thing. Well, when you're optimizing 44 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 1: a search engine to make people search more rather than 45 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: getting than the search engine results they need, you're doing 46 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:29,959 Speaker 1: so that they can see more ads. 47 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 2: It's not great. 48 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: And though it's not clear what was done to resolve 49 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: the so called query softness that Ragavan demanded was reversed, 50 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 1: I hypothesized one of the moves involved rolling back changes 51 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 1: to search that suppress spami content. Google has since denied 52 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: this in a response to my newsletter, despite the fact 53 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: that emails revealed as part of the same Department of 54 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: Justice trial, revealed that Jerry Dishler, Ragavan's deputy at Google 55 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: Ads at the time, specifically discussed rollbacks as a means 56 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: of increasing queries. And what's also lovely about this in 57 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: old to this in the notes, by the way, is 58 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 1: their response didn't really attack anything I had to say. 59 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 1: They just say, oh, oh, it's ridiculous what he said. 60 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 1: They refuse to give any true data. But I'm going 61 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 1: to quote the man that destroyed Google searching now to 62 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 1: kind of run this down. The March twenty nineteen core 63 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: update to Search, which happened about a week before at 64 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 1: the end of the code Yellow, was expected to be 65 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 1: and I quote, one of the largest updates to Search 66 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 1: in a very long time. Yet when it launched, many 67 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: found that the update mostly rolled back changes and traffic 68 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: was increasing to sites that had previously been suppressed by 69 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: Google Search's Penguin update from twenty twelve that specifically targeted 70 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: spammy search results, as well as those hit by an 71 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: update from August first, twenty eighteen, a few months after 72 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: Ben Gomes became head of Search. Prabagar Ragavan was made 73 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: head of Search a little over a year later in 74 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: June twenty twenty, and it's pretty obvious how big a 75 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 1: decline Google Search has taken since then. Results are filled 76 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: with SEO garbage that search engine optimization by the way, 77 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: ads sponsored content that it's pretty much impossible to tell 78 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: from regular results, and the disastrous launch of Google's AI 79 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: powered summaries, which produced results that range from hilarious like 80 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: telling you to eat rocks or life threatening like telling 81 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: you a mushroom is safe. To eat that will kill you. 82 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 1: And I think the Probagar Ragavan's reign at Google can 83 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: be seen as an illustration of much larger problems at 84 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: the company. Now for the next bit, please take a 85 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 1: look at the episode notes and go to TinyURL dot 86 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:27,599 Speaker 1: com slash B one O two. 87 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 2: Oh. 88 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: This will be in the notes because you're gonna want 89 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 1: to look at the chart I'm referencing. But I'm really 90 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: going to try my hardest to get the most of 91 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: it out verbally as well. If you're driving your car, 92 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: if you're currently prizing open a window to steal a 93 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,279 Speaker 1: granny's purse from her car, I'll get it. I'll get 94 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:45,160 Speaker 1: em anyway. When Propagar Ragavan took over Search in Q 95 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: three twenty twenty, Google had just experienced its first decline 96 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,239 Speaker 1: in year over year quarterly growth since Q four twenty twelve, 97 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 1: a one point sixty six percent decline in growth that 98 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 1: was followed by a remarkable recovery with double digit year 99 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: of a year growth just as Prabagar turned the screws 100 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 1: on Search to a ridiculous sixty one point five eight 101 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 1: percent year over year growth in Q three twenty twenty one. 102 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 1: Then things began to slow every quarter saw progressively lower growth, 103 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 1: reaching in the deer in Q four twenty twenty two, 104 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: when Google experienced a mere point ninety six percent year 105 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 1: of year growth, something that one might be able to 106 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: blame on the end of the opulent post vaccine spending 107 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: we saw across the entire economy, or the spiraling rates 108 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: of inflation seeing world wide. Maybe it could be something else, right, 109 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 1: and you'd assume, big deal, work this out right, they'll 110 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: recover as the wider economy did. Right. 111 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 2: Not so much. 112 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 1: While Google experienced the degree of recovery in its growth rates, 113 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: it took until Q three twenty twenty three to hit 114 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 1: double digit growth again eleven percent year every year, hitting 115 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 1: a high of fifteen point four one percent in Q 116 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: two twenty twenty four, before trending down again in Q 117 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: three twenty twenty four to thirteen point five nine percent. 118 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,239 Speaker 1: The reason these numbers are important is that growth drives 119 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 1: everything at Google, and prabagar Ragavan drove the most consistent 120 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:05,600 Speaker 1: growth engine in the company, Search, which grew fourteen percent 121 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: year of a year in Q one twenty twenty four, 122 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: right up until he stopped piloting it. The context is 123 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: key to understanding is I don't know if you call 124 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: it a promotion, a demotion, or just a room with 125 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: no door handle on it which they put him in 126 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: every morning. But this title is most assurdedly not a 127 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:27,039 Speaker 1: chief technology officer or any kind of officer or executive 128 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 1: at all. Google has, for the most part, enjoyed one 129 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: of the most incredible runs in business history, with almost 130 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: an entire decade of twenty percent year over year growth, 131 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,679 Speaker 1: with a few exceptions such as Q four twenty twelve, 132 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: a few months after Ragavan began at Google, where he 133 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 1: started in ads to Q three twenty thirteen, a chaotic 134 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: period where Google fell behind Amazon in shopping at revenue, 135 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 1: bought Motorola Mobility for twelve point five billion dollars and 136 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: by the way, that's sixty three percent more than its 137 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 1: trading price, and then they saw a fifteen percent year 138 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: of a year decline in pricing for their search hands. 139 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 1: Google's earnings also leaked early in this period, which was 140 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: not a lot of fun for Google at all. But 141 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 1: growth is slowing again and it isn't showing any signs 142 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 1: of returning to the heady days where seventy percent year 143 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: over year growth each quarter was considered bad Google has 144 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: deliberately made its products worse as a means of increasing 145 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: revenue and increasing growth, spawning a trend of both remarkable 146 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: revenue growth and worsening search results. That study exactly when 147 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 1: Prapagar Ragavan took the wheel. The chart I'm quoting tells 148 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: another story too, though, that twisting Google Search to make 149 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: it more profitable only worked for a little bit before 150 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: growth began to slow again. Recklessness and desperation begets only 151 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 1: more recklessness and desperation. And you'll notice that Google's aggressive 152 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: push into Ai followed its dismal Q four twenty twenty 153 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: two quarter where it nearly fell into negative growth, and 154 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: when you in factor in inflation. 155 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 2: It actually did. 156 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: Now if you forgive the mixed metaphors, Google has essentially 157 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: killed its golden ghost Search and now is in the 158 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: process of pawning its eggs to buy decidedly non magical 159 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: beans in this case, I mean data centers and GPUs. 160 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: With Google increasing its capital expenditures in the financial year 161 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four to fifty billion dollars, equivalent to nearly 162 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: double its average CAPEX from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty 163 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 1: three since becoming head of Search, Ragavan has also become 164 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 1: the silent leader of most of Google's other revenue centers, 165 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 1: Google Ads, Google Shopping Maps, and eventually Gemini, Google's chet 166 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:37,079 Speaker 1: GPT competitor, which might also explain why he's now been 167 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 1: pought in the naughty chair. You see, twenty twenty four 168 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: wasn't a great year for Google, and it was a 169 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: much worse one for prabagar Ragavan, starting in February when 170 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 1: Gemini their large language model generated racially diverse Nazis and, 171 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: among other things, a mess that prabagar Ragavan himself had 172 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: to apologize for. This man never pokes his head up, 173 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: but he had to in February. A few months later, 174 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 1: Google introduced AI powered search summaries that told users to 175 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 1: eat rocks and put glue on pizza, which only caused 176 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: people to remember exactly how bad Google Search had got 177 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: and laugh at how the only way that Google seemed 178 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: to be able to innovate was to make it worse. 179 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: Ragavan is being replaced by Nick Fox, a former McKinsey 180 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 1: guy who, in the emails I called attention to in 181 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 1: the podcast I've been talking about, told Ben Gomes that 182 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 1: making Google Search more profitable was and I quote the 183 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 1: new reality of their jobs, to which Ben Gomes responded 184 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: by saying that he was concerned that growth was all 185 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 1: that Google was thinking about. 186 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, happy, terrible, warn't them now. 187 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:39,559 Speaker 1: Nick Fox has to quote Google CEO Sandabashi been instrumental 188 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 1: in shaping Google's AI product road map, which suggests that 189 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 1: Google is going all in on artificial intelligence at a 190 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 1: time when developers are struggling to justify using its models 191 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: and are actively mad at both the way in which 192 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 1: it markets them and the way in which they're integrated 193 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 1: into Google's other products. I'm hypothesizing here, but I think 194 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 1: that Google is desperate, and that its earnings on October 195 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: thirtieth likely to make the. 196 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 2: Street more than a little worried. 197 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 1: The medium to long term prognosis is likely even worse two, 198 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 1: As the Wall Street Journal notes, Google's ads business is 199 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: expected to dip below a fifty percent market share in 200 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 1: the US in the next year for the first time 201 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 1: in more than a decade, which, by the way, was 202 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: right around where things were kind of bad for them, 203 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: and Google's gratuitous monopoly oversearch and likely ads, by the way, 204 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 1: is coming to an end. It's not an if, it's 205 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: a when it's more likely that Google sees AIS a 206 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 1: fundamental part of their future growth, despite the fact that 207 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 1: this thing only loses money and people really don't like it. 208 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: As part of the Ragavan reorganization, Google is also moving 209 00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: the Gemini app team, the one handling the chat GPT 210 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 1: competitor I've been talking about under AI research group Deep Mind, 211 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: a move that might be kind of smart in the 212 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: hand the AI to the AI people kind of way, 213 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 1: but also suggests that there's just this degree of disarray 214 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 1: at the company, and I don't think that's getting better 215 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:58,319 Speaker 1: in a hurry. You see, Ragavan was powerful and for 216 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 1: a time successful. He ruled with nine fist, warning employees 217 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 1: a few months ago to prepare for a different market 218 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:07,439 Speaker 1: reality because and I quote things were not like they 219 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 1: were fifteen to twenty years ago. Yeah, back when he 220 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 1: worked at Yahoo. And he then would proceed to say 221 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 1: that he was shortening the amount of time that his 222 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 1: reports would have to work on certain projects, according to 223 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: Jennifer Elius of CNBC, which is exactly the kind of 224 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 1: move you make when things are going poorly. This also 225 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 1: kind of reflects things that I've heard from internal Googlers, 226 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 1: whether the resources are going to AI or they're going 227 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 1: nowhere else. The same deal with Microsoft. We're in a 228 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: group delusion, folks. It's not brilliant. But let's get back 229 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: to the other fella. Replacing Gragavan is Nick Fox, a 230 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 1: man who has only worked to either McKinsey or Google. 231 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: And I am not kidding, by the way. He was 232 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 1: at McKinsey for a few years then has been at 233 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 1: Google ever since. It's completely bonkers. And I mean, this 234 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 1: is the kind of move you make putting a guy 235 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 1: like Nick Fox on top. It's something you do because 236 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: you don't know what to do, and somebody needed to 237 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: get fired or moved into the naughty box. Something had 238 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 1: to change, and well it was. And what's crazy is 239 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: that you think they'd find a guy with a history 240 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 1: of success with a product that people love, that's doing 241 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 1: really well, that's making a bunch of money, right, Well, 242 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 1: you'd be wrong because Nick Fox is most famous for 243 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 1: running Google's Assistant business, which if you google how customers 244 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: feel about it. They hate it, and it's really just 245 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 1: famous for kind of sucking and literally making them no money. 246 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 1: Google Assistant is a loss loss, lossy, lossy product. It 247 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: loses so much money, like a bunch of other assistant companies. 248 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 1: Look at Amazon Alexa losing them over ten billion dollars. 249 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,320 Speaker 1: It's ridiculous. This is the guy who's running Google's revenue. 250 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 1: I'm scared, well, not scared. It would be kind of 251 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 1: funny if Google started collapsing. I'd enjoy watching. Or I 252 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: don't know, they could make themselves better. Who knows. Anyway, 253 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: I'd argue there's a compelling case that can be made 254 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,560 Speaker 1: that we're watching the slow, painful collapse of this company. 255 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 1: Google was at one point known for making these transformational, 256 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: beloved products, and then they chose to put people in 257 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: power to make them worse, to make them more money. 258 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,320 Speaker 1: And maybe what we're watching here is kind of the 259 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: net result of the rot economy. When a rot economist 260 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: is given the wheel, you get these early pops when 261 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: things are going well. Number go up, so far, so hard, 262 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: number so good, so big. We love number. But the 263 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: problem is, if you're just destroying the products, if you're 264 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: squeezing your customers, if you're invading their lives more as 265 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: a means of making this money, what do you fall 266 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,559 Speaker 1: back on when growth goes away? How do you inspire 267 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:37,319 Speaker 1: your customers when things suck ass. The answer is you don't. 268 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 1: And just like the rest of the hyperscalers, Google has 269 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: not had a meaningful new product in over a decade, 270 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 1: and its most meaningful acquisition in years involved paying two 271 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: point seven billion dollars to buy Character to Ai to 272 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 1: hire back a guy who quit because he was mad 273 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: that Google wouldn't release an early version of a large 274 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,959 Speaker 1: language model in twenty twenty or twenty twenty one. It's 275 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 1: unclear when that happened, and non Shazier was sudden they 276 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:05,200 Speaker 1: shouldn't have let go, But at the same time, it's like, 277 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: is this guy really going to turn things around? Seriously, 278 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 1: Google is just a company bereft of vision, and they're 279 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 1: incapable of making money without their monopolies, and they're just 280 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 1: flailing wildly in the hopes that's copying everybody else's shit 281 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: will make them good, will save them from perdition, or 282 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: maybe stop the Department of Justice breaking them up, which 283 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: is I think is going to happen, albeit it might 284 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: take a while. No, Google is exactly the monster that 285 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 1: Sundar Pashai and Propagar Ragavan wanted it to be. 286 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 2: This lumbering, ugly. 287 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: Private equity vehicle that uses its crooked money machine to 288 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: demolish smaller players, except there are no more hyper growth 289 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: markets left to throw the billions at, and now they're 290 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: left with generative AI, a technology that lacks any mass 291 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: market utility and burns cash with every single prompt. I 292 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 1: know it's a bit dramatic to suggest that we're watching 293 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: Google die, but I've done it with Facebook, so why 294 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 1: not today? Seriously, Probagar Ragavan's time at Google coming to 295 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: an end is a sign that they've realized that something 296 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 1: is broken, that they know something has to change. But 297 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 1: it also is a sign that this company doesn't know 298 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 1: what has to change because they put a fucking McKinsey 299 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: guy at the top. And yes, I know he's more 300 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: a Google guy than a McKinsey guy. But if you 301 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: look back at the emails, and I will link to 302 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: them in the notes, you will see that Nick Fox 303 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: was not on the side of Ben Gomes or shashy 304 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 1: Thakha and the people trying to save Google Search from 305 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 1: the rot economists. No, Nick Fox is as much. He's 306 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: just as bad as Probagar Ragavan, except he has a 307 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: worse tenure at Google. Google Assistant sucks. It's not a 308 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 1: great product. They're shoving AI into it. I get emails 309 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 1: every week from someone saying, can you do a thing 310 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 1: on Google Assistant. I don't want to, because all I'd 311 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: be saying for half an hour is Google Assistant is crap. 312 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 1: Google Assistant is getting worse. Everyone's mad at Google Assistant. 313 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 1: Why is Google Assistant so bad? And the well, I 314 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 1: actually don't have an answer for that. But I do 315 00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 1: have an answer for who's running all of Google's stuff now, 316 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: who's running Google Search and a bunch of other things. 317 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: It's the guy who made the extremely unprofitable thing that 318 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: people hate, that's an also ran of other companies. 319 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 2: Shit. 320 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 1: That is the guy in charge now. And I just 321 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 1: believe that Google is falling apart at the seams. Google 322 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 1: does not know what to do anymore. And I'm really 323 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: I'm going to tail gave the October thirtieth earnings. I'm 324 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: going to crack a beer. I'm going to listen to 325 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 1: the call. It's going to be very exciting because I 326 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 1: don't think it's going to be very good at all. 327 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: They're going to try put lipstick on the pig. They're 328 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 1: going to try and claim this growth in AI and 329 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 1: maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I look like a bell end 330 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: for the eight hundredth time in my life, but I 331 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: don't think I am, and I think we're in probably 332 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 1: one of the most interesting, exciting and horrible eras of 333 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: tech so far, where we're going to watch one of 334 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 1: these companies collapse. And collapsing might not be as neat 335 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: as the whole company dies, but the fracturing, the talent, 336 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 1: the brain drain, you're watching it happen now. We've been 337 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: watching it for years. And the results well, I mean, 338 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 1: look at Google Search, look at Google's products. How bad 339 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 1: they are now? And that's the thing. You think that 340 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,919 Speaker 1: these companies can't die, And it's probably because dying is 341 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 1: a relative term for them. You're watching the disease work 342 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: through Google as we speak. Prabagar leaving is not a 343 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 1: good thing for the company. It's just the sign that 344 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: they don't know what to do. And we're watching the 345 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: fall of Rome. We really are, I'm sure of it. 346 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 1: It might take ten years, but it will be fascinating 347 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 1: to watch and fascinating to tell you about. And it's 348 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: been my pleasure to tell you about. How much of 349 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,199 Speaker 1: it you can credit to Prabagar Ragavan the man who 350 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: destroyed Google Search. Thank you for listening to Better Offline. 351 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,120 Speaker 1: The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song 352 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: is Matasowski. You can check out more of his music 353 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 1: and audio projects at Mattasowski dot com, m A. T. 354 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 1: T OsO w Ski dot com. You can email me 355 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 1: at easy at Better offline dot com or visit Better 356 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: Offline dot com to find more podcast links and of course, 357 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: my newsletter. 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