1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:08,799 Speaker 1: The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel 2 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: Football Seasons. Here no better place to get in on 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: the action. FanDuel app is safe, you get paid fast, 4 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 1: A lot of ways to play the spread, the money line, 5 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: team totals, players, props, a lot of stuff over unders, 6 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,799 Speaker 1: jump into the action, same game parlays are my favorite. 7 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 1: Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fan 8 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 1: Duel app today. All right, let's do a little instant 9 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: reaction on the Chargers close loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. 10 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: Then we'll have Chad Millman in for another edition of 11 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: Sharp or Square where I take six or seven games 12 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: where I'm leaning for my blazing five picks and am 13 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 1: I a square? Do I know what I'm talking about? So, 14 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: first of all, it's pretty hard to judge this game holistically. 15 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 1: Keenan Allen, best receiver for the Chargers out facing Patrick Mahomes. 16 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:15,919 Speaker 1: Corey Lindsley, Pro Bowl center, gets hurt. Another offensive lineman 17 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: for the Chargers gets hurt. Justin Herbert gets hurt. So 18 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: a pretty heroic effort by Herbert. I thought the first 19 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: half the Chargers controlled it and didn't take a big 20 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: enough lead and Therefore, when Mahomes strikes, which he does, 21 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 1: you got to have quite a lead built up at 22 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 1: Arrowhead against Mahomes. And it was one big mistake on 23 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 1: the pick six for Herbert, which by the way, I 24 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 1: did not see it as a mistake by Herbert. It 25 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: looked like Everett, the tight end for the Chargers, wanted 26 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: to come out of the game, was gassed and ran 27 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: kind of a lazy route. So that goes on justin Herbert. 28 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: But I thought it was the tight end Everett who 29 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: ran a lousy route and didn't finish it and was 30 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: signaling the take himself out of the game on the 31 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 1: previous play he was gassed. I will say this is 32 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: my concern about the Chargers because I think top to 33 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: bottom you can certainly make the argument many of the 34 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: people in the league that I trust think the Chargers 35 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: have the best roster along with the Bills in the 36 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: National Football League. Is that in two games with the Chargers, 37 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: I think they've underachieved offensively. So one thing about LA 38 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: that's really easy to spot is Mac and Bosa and 39 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: that defense. They bring a lot of heat. I mean, 40 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes was knocked off his spot a little bit 41 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: unsettled in the first half. If you watch the Chargers 42 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 1: in the first half, they forced read in Mahomes out 43 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: of respect Read and Mahomes really very few deep drops. 44 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 1: It was get rid of the ball as fast as 45 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: you can. Well, that's Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes telling 46 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: you we have so much respect for their rush. We 47 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 1: don't want to put Patrick Mahomes on the crosshairs and 48 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 1: get buried. So in the first half, the Chiefs game 49 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: plan was telling you how much respect they had for Bosa, 50 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 1: mac Derwin, James and the rest. And again the Chargers 51 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: just didn't get you know, didn't put enough points on 52 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: the board. But what concerns me about the Chargers, and 53 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:12,799 Speaker 1: I've been talking about this now for over a year 54 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 1: on all my platforms, young quarterbacks are better served with 55 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 1: offensive head coaches. Brandon Staley defensive head coach Herbert was 56 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: the best quarterback in the league not to make the 57 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,519 Speaker 1: playoffs last year. And in two games I've watched them, 58 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: their defensive line mauled Derek Carr three picks. They didn't 59 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: put him away until the very end, didn't put the 60 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 1: Raiders away with three picks of the forty two dropbacks 61 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: Derek Carr had in that game, he was pressured on 62 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: thirty two of them, hit or sacked thirty two or 63 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: forty two. Three picks didn't put them away until the end. 64 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: And the Chargers have a better roster than the Raiders, 65 00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: especially on defense, and then in this game they left 66 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: too many points on the table. I don't think it's 67 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: an overly creative offense. Joe Lombardi has been in this 68 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: league for a long time. I don't. I think they're 69 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: at times too reliant and again no Keenan Allen, but 70 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: kind of reliant on safe throws, stuff thrown before the sticks. 71 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: I just don't see enough clever with the Chargers offense. 72 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: It doesn't make me think. It doesn't surprise me. And again, 73 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 1: tonight's tough. Herbert's in pain, Corey Lindsley's out, Keenan Allen's out. 74 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 1: You're an arrowhead, hard to hear. I get that, but 75 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 1: in two games, that's my takeaway. This was the best 76 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,040 Speaker 1: quarterback in the league last year that didn't make the playoffs, 77 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 1: as the NFL added another playoff team to both conferences. 78 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: And I watch them right now and I think to myself, 79 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: they're just not creative. Enough offensively, and it's not an 80 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 1: offensive line issue. They've upgraded that, it's not a Herbert issue. 81 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,039 Speaker 1: I mean they've they've drafted wide receivers, well, they have 82 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: a nice tight end, They've capable backs. Am I seeing 83 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 1: what you're seeing? I've got my issues with a Chargers offense. 84 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 1: Herbert was a four point biology major GPA, a tutor 85 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: in college. Give him more, make him think you can 86 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 1: pile a lot on that kid, even though he's only 87 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: at the beginning of his third year. In terms of 88 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: Kansas City, listen, I didn't think I thought that were 89 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: a little bit overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage in 90 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 1: the first half, and they came back and won the 91 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:30,280 Speaker 1: game thanks to a great defensive play. So you're Kansas City, 92 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 1: this matchup is usually tight. It was tied again. They 93 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: almost botched that on side kick. But you're going to 94 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: be in a lot of close games over the next 95 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: ten years with Herbert and the Chargers, and you know, 96 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:44,719 Speaker 1: Kansas City does this. Mahomes has his halfs and his 97 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,919 Speaker 1: stretches where he looked a little off, but in the 98 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 1: end he made some big time plays and Kansas City's 99 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 1: defense came to the rescue. But my bigger takeaway was, 100 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 1: despite the injuries, I'm not seeing a Charger offense throw 101 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: the ball as the sticks take big swings, big chances. 102 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: Herbert should maybe roll out more. He's really big and 103 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: really mobile. Most of the stuff is all five step drops, 104 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: sit in the pocket stuff. A little disappointed, not just 105 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: in the loss, but just situationally. First two games. I'm 106 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 1: board with the Chargers offense. Be more multiple, more motions, 107 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: more personnel groupings, more clever. I'd like to see it. 108 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 1: All right, let's go Action Network Chad Milman, it's time 109 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: for Sharper Square. All right, it's Sharper Square. Chad Millman, 110 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 1: c CEO of the Action Network. Now my blazing five. 111 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: I went three and two. If not for a field 112 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 1: goal from fifty eight yards, I would have gone four 113 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: and one. So I make my picks over the course 114 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: of a week. I've made totally different picks based on 115 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 1: over the last forty eight hours new information shows Sharper square. 116 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: Here we go. I think the Patriots are going to 117 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: beat the Steelers with watt out. It's not the same 118 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 1: pass rush. We know that Belichick eats alive. Bad quarterbacks, 119 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: mediocre quarterbacks or young quarterbacks Belichick has owned owned Mike Tomlin. 120 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 1: Steelers are now like plus two and a half. Tomlin's 121 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 1: a much better underdog coach that I get, But I'm 122 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: gonna take the Patriots. Belichick doesn't lose back to back 123 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 1: against an average quarterback. Patriots minus two and a half. 124 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 1: Sharper square. That is completely sharp, Colin. So we talked 125 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 1: about this last week with the Steelers. We love the 126 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: Steelers at plus six and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. 127 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: That was, as you just noted, a ra ra Mike 128 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: Tomlin spot. You're getting a good defense on the road, 129 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: world beating time. Mike Tomlin, an emotional guy, rallies his 130 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: troops this situation where they're underdogs. Not quite the same 131 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: number one. You don't have t J. Watt. That's no 132 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 1: good Number two. Mitch Trubisky was proven to be what 133 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: he is, a mediocre to less than mediocre quarterback. The 134 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: Steelers have now had a week of film where they realized, 135 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: oh crap, we're going back to mister Trubisky against a 136 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 1: Patriots team that is coming in hot, not meaning like 137 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 1: they've winning a lot, meaning like they are steaming in 138 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,320 Speaker 1: desperate need of a win. Week two is all about 139 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:48,200 Speaker 1: overreaction underreaction, and you don't have data to really build 140 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: any ideas yet as a better so in week two 141 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: you want to be looking for these opportunities. This game 142 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: open at one and a half. Even though the majority 143 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: of the betting tickets right now are on the Steelers, 144 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the money is on the Patriots. 145 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:10,359 Speaker 1: That tells you the wise guys are on the Patriots. 146 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: Buccaneers injury report almost looks like a comedy this week. 147 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: All their receivers miss practice. We find out that Brady 148 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,559 Speaker 1: now is living apart from Gizelle bit of an s show. 149 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: He now takes Wednesday's off for the family. The Saints 150 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: have their number four and O against brady healthier team. 151 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, Jamis Winston played really really 152 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: well in the second half when he was upright and 153 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 1: he had time is really good. I'm going to take 154 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 1: the Saints plus two and a half at home the dog. 155 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: What say you, Sharper square one hundred percent sharp side. 156 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: This is one of the games that almost immediately the 157 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: wives guys pegged as something they were gonna bet. It 158 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: opened at three. It's down to two and a half. 159 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: It's down to two and a half. Even though there's 160 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,960 Speaker 1: this is called what's this, what's called reverse line movement. 161 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: The majority of the bets are on the Buccaneers right, 162 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: but the line has moved in the direction of the Saints. 163 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: That means that the money the professional betters have come 164 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 1: in on the Saints. You've got a lot of different 165 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:18,319 Speaker 1: things working in your favor here. Number one, you've got 166 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: the Saints who are a little bit undervalued. To start, 167 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 1: they were underdogs of a field goal. That's a key number. Wise, guys, 168 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 1: bet at two divisional home dogs. We talked about this 169 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: last week with Week one. It's applicable throughout the year. 170 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: When I look at the board every single week, the 171 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:42,559 Speaker 1: first thing I'm looking for home dogs, then divisional home dogs, 172 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:48,079 Speaker 1: and where will there be an over indexing for public perception. 173 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: This has all three of those things. Put on your 174 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: favorite game day gear because college football's here and Fan 175 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 1: Duel wants you to get in on the action. Right now, 176 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: new customers can get no sweat first bet up to 177 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: a thousand bucks. 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That's Collins Coli in twenty one plus 188 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: in present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, and Louisiana. Permitted 189 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: parish is only Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia 190 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 1: or West Virginia. First online real money wager only. Refund 191 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: issued as non withdrawal psyche credit that expires in fourteen days. 192 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 1: Restrictions the plyce terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. 193 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 1: Gambling problem one hundred next step or text next step 194 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: to five three three four two Arizona wanted eight eight, seven, 195 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: eight nine and seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot 196 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 1: org slash chat Connecticut one hundred gambler or visit FanDuel 197 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 1: dot com slash RG and Colorado, Indiana, Jersey, and Virginia 198 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 1: one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana 199 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: one hundred two seven oh seven and one one seven 200 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: for confidential help in Michigan one eight seven seven h 201 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 1: O p E. N Y or techs Hope, n Y. 202 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:17,439 Speaker 1: For six seven three six nine in New York, Tennessee 203 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 1: redline one hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine 204 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:21,839 Speaker 1: Tennessee visit one eight hundred Gambler dot in West Virginia. 205 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 1: There's a lot of double digit favorites this week. As 206 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 1: you well know, always try to stay away from him. 207 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 1: The numbers tell you take the Packers. I deep down think, Um, 208 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 1: the Broncos if not for two one yard fumbles would 209 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:47,440 Speaker 1: have won that game, convincing me, Vic convincingly. Um, But 210 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: I'm gonna stay away for now. I'm gonna take the 211 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:53,199 Speaker 1: Lions at home minus two and a half over the Commanders. 212 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: I don't love either team. Wentz his mistake prone in 213 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 1: his career, more so on the road. I thought they 214 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 1: were all little lucky at home to beat the Jags, 215 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: who instead of field goals went for it. Had a 216 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: drop by Travis atn that would have been a touchdown. 217 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: I thought they got a little bit of breaks. I 218 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 1: thought I but Doug Peterson took some unnecessary road risks. 219 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: I would have taken field goals. I thought the Jags 220 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: when that game was over, were the better team. And 221 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,880 Speaker 1: I think Detroit's better than the Jags. And now it's 222 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 1: in Detroit minus two and a half, I'm taking the 223 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 1: Lions sharper square, totally sharp. First time, the first time 224 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: that the Detroit Lions are favorites in twenty four games. 225 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: That is a record in the Super Bowl. That is 226 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 1: how long it's been. I loved the Lions last week 227 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: against the Eagles, and I started to get nervous about it, 228 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: because sometimes when there is a team getting so much 229 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: sentiment as a public, as an underdog, you start to 230 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: get nervous that it's the wrong side. And then the 231 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: Lions did exactly what they thought that we thought they 232 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,719 Speaker 1: would do. They back to our cover, They stayed in 233 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: the game. They didn't stop no matter how out of 234 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 1: it they were. That's who they are, right like. They 235 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: are a team that they do not stop. Washington gave 236 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: up six yards per carry against Jacksonville. Detroit has a 237 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: significantly better running game and it wants to run more 238 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: than the Jags do. I agree with you about Doug Peterson. 239 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 1: I thought he put the Jags in a couple of 240 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: weird spots and they really had a chance to win 241 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 1: that game. This is a huge letdown spot from Carson Wentz. 242 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 1: And like the Lions, if they are healthy, which there 243 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: have been some question marks in the offensive line, but 244 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: I think the expectation is everybody will play. They have 245 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: one of the best offensive lines, so they are going 246 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: to be able to compete at the line of scrimmage, 247 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 1: which is where you need if you want to win 248 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: close games in the NFL. Okay, I like points always, 249 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: but I'm going to give you a favorite I like. 250 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: I don't like to be called a square. I think 251 00:14:56,760 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: I probably am Cleveland a six and a half at 252 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 1: home to the Jets. I think the Jets right now 253 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: are a bad team. Now, Jacoby Brissette is what he is. 254 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: They're at home home opener. The rosters are not close, 255 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: and the Jets have a major left tackle issue, and 256 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: I believe Watton Miles Garrett are easily the best two 257 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 1: pass rushers, so I get immobile Joe Flacco. Left tackle 258 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: issue not a very good roster, a developing roster. I'm 259 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: going to swallow the six and a half in Cleveland 260 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 1: at home, Sharper Square. I mean, dude, we've been talking 261 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 1: about this for more than ten years. At this point, 262 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: I can't believe you would take the Browns in this spot. 263 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 1: I feel like you're doing it. Just debit me. This 264 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: is exactly when you take the Jets. We talked about 265 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 1: this last week with the Seahawks. I begged you to 266 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: take the Seahawks as six and a half point dogs 267 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: against the Broncos. It is the same exact scenario. You 268 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 1: are getting so much inflation in this line. Everyone is 269 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: so excited the Browns went on the road Jacobe percent 270 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 1: they beat Baker. Meanwhile, the Jets are getting throttled with 271 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: Joe Flacco. No team is ever as good as they look, 272 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: No team is ever as bad as they look like 273 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: I said, Week two all about overreaction. A couple stats 274 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: for you. Week two underdogs that didn't cover Week one 275 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: by seven or more points the last twenty years sixty 276 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: percent against the spread. Week two dogs who just didn't 277 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: cover in Week one sixty four percent against the spread 278 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 1: since two thousand and five. Week two dogs of six 279 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 1: or less off a straight up loss, and the Jets 280 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 1: started at six sixty seven percent against the spread, so 281 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: you got to hold your nose. You gotta bet it. 282 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: Like I know, you don't even want to watch the game, 283 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: so you're not going to bet it. But the Jet 284 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: to the side here. And by the way, if the 285 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: Jets lose, that's fine. You make these plays over the 286 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 1: long term and you end up being a sixty percent winner, 287 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: and that's what you're trying to be, all right. Another 288 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: favorite that I think is kind of tasty. And I 289 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 1: know again, I know I'm as square of all the 290 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 1: big favorites. Bengals minus eight and a half against the Cowboys. 291 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: Now it's I'm not sure I'm gonna beout this, but 292 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 1: I think Dallas is a bad football team, a bad 293 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:37,919 Speaker 1: team now with a backup quarterback. I think Cincinnati's a 294 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: good team that played the best underdog coach in the world, 295 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: with the best pass rush outside of Buffalo in the world. 296 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,440 Speaker 1: And I think the Bengals because, as Joe Burrow told 297 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 1: me on my podcast, he didn't get a practice much. 298 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 1: Appendectomy surgery they take something out of your body. It 299 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 1: is a major surgery. The timing was terrible against the 300 00:17:56,000 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 1: great defense. This is a average defense. I think Cincinnati 301 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 1: buries him. It's might blowout of the week. Well, I 302 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: feel like there are other games that should be your 303 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,439 Speaker 1: blowout of the week because this is a really tricky spot. 304 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 1: Eight and a half points on the road against a 305 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 1: team that is desperate. You always got to think about 306 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:21,359 Speaker 1: the emotional elements of the game, right and set The 307 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 1: first game with a backup quarterback for a team that 308 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 1: knows its season is on the line is always when 309 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 1: they are playing their best. You get that team as 310 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 1: a massive underdog at home, and that's when you play 311 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,639 Speaker 1: the home underdog. The same stats I just gave you 312 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 1: for the Jets all applicable for the Cowboys. They lost 313 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: like by double digits. They are huge home underdogs. It 314 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 1: doesn't matter if Dak is playing or not. But also 315 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: think about this and I'll ask you these questions. I 316 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 1: need you to answer them. Do you think Dak Prescott 317 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 1: is a good quarterback? I think he's a b quarterback. 318 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 1: So you don't think he's a top ten quarterback? No? No, 319 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 1: all right, So if Dak is playing, maybe the Bengals 320 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: are say a point and a half favorites maybe there, 321 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: Maybe it's push. Do you really think Dak is worth 322 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: eight and a half points against the spread? Is he 323 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 1: worth seven and a half points against the spread? No? 324 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: Those are the guys who are the best quarterbacks in 325 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 1: the NFL. That's not da So the inflation on this 326 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 1: line is so big that the wise guys are going 327 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: to take the Cowboys. This lion has come down, if 328 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,680 Speaker 1: only because they know the number became too big because 329 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 1: the public perception is the Cowboys can't win without Dak. 330 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: All right, let's go back to some dogs. So I 331 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: have three picks. I love Patriot, Saints, Lions. Then I'm 332 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:53,400 Speaker 1: just feeling my way through this shit. Okay. The one 333 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:59,440 Speaker 1: that's interesting to me people really like Philadelphia, the fact 334 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 1: that they're a favorite against Minnesota, a team I absolutely love. 335 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: But the numbers only two. So it's telling me that 336 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 1: if it was three, I would take the Vikings. At two, 337 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,399 Speaker 1: it's begging me to take the Eagles. That's what it 338 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: feels like to me. It kind of feels like I'm 339 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 1: being it's a sucker bet to take the perceived better 340 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,719 Speaker 1: team in Minnesota. Right. The minus two is telling me 341 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 1: bet the Eagles sharper square totally sharp. That's exactly what 342 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,920 Speaker 1: you should do. It's exactly what I did. You could 343 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 1: have gotten this at one and a half. I got 344 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: it at one and a half. Yeah, they are begging 345 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 1: you to take the Eagles here. Look the Vikings. They 346 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: beat up on the Packers in a really big spot. 347 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson had a season making game. Kirk Cousins looked amazing, 348 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 1: their new offense with a new coach, ha Sean McVeagh accolade. 349 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 1: Everyone thinks they're amazing. Now the Eagles. Look, if you 350 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 1: just look at the scoreboard, they only beat the Detroit 351 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:02,440 Speaker 1: Lions by three, and everyone downgrades them a little bit 352 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: if they aren't actually looking at how the game was played. 353 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 1: The Eagles dominated that game, and they were ahead by 354 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 1: double digits for a long period in that game. The 355 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 1: Lions snuck back through the back snuck in through the 356 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 1: back door. But at that was a dangerous spot you 357 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 1: and how you talked about this. I thought the Lions 358 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 1: could sneak out a win there, Like this was one 359 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 1: of the games where I really felt the Eagles could 360 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: go in fall flat and then they'd end up running 361 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 1: the table because they'd be great and they'd win the 362 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 1: NFC East, So the fact they get out of there 363 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,200 Speaker 1: with Jalen Hurts, who's grading so well. It's a quarterback 364 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: right now and has so many weapons around him. Eagles 365 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: are the site. This week's Gold Medal performance goes to 366 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 1: a quarterback who lived up to the hype. In Week one, 367 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:48,640 Speaker 1: Josh Allen showed his MVP worth and the Bills opening 368 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 1: romp over the Rams. Unlike Brady and Montana, Allen isn't 369 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:56,640 Speaker 1: the best quarterback in the NFL, but he's the most talented, 370 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,679 Speaker 1: more physical than Big Band, more refined than Cam Newton. 371 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 1: Allen will have an amazing career while sometimes driving you 372 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: crazy love watching him play. Though. This week's gold Medal 373 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:13,360 Speaker 1: performance sponsored by Legacy Precious Metals. The stock market's been plumbering, 374 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 1: many economists predicting it's just the beginning, which could mean 375 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 1: tremendous losses in your portfolio. 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It's it's often 385 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,199 Speaker 1: an ugly bet that you'll say something. I want a 386 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: game that we have not discussed. This is a bonus 387 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,360 Speaker 1: for the audience on Sharper Square. A game that you 388 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,120 Speaker 1: like that I haven't perceived the team that I would 389 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,400 Speaker 1: like to you two. Think about Jacksonville Jaguars plus four 390 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 1: and a half. I did. It was one of my 391 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:13,119 Speaker 1: initial picks. It was so you like the Jags of 392 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: the Colts who loved the Jags on Sunday nights. I'm 393 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,040 Speaker 1: watching the Sunday night game. I opened up the lines 394 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 1: and I see Jags plus four and a half. First game. 395 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,880 Speaker 1: I bet love the Jags in this spot. I liked 396 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 1: the Jags. I didn't bet him, so I thought the 397 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 1: number got a little out of control. But I like 398 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 1: the Jags to win the AFC South. I think Doug 399 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 1: Peterson and Trevor Lawrence can be a magical combination. There 400 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,160 Speaker 1: was a lot to like in that game against Washington 401 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 1: and you alluded to it. I thought there was a 402 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 1: better team. They were the better team, and Doug Peterson, 403 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: I don't know that he made all the right calls. 404 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,919 Speaker 1: I also think Trevor Lawrence, I think he was just 405 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 1: a team is three touchdown passes that were just bad 406 00:23:56,640 --> 00:24:00,679 Speaker 1: throws because he was overthrowing people. So you're getting the 407 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: Jags at home against the mediocre Colts team in my opinion, 408 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:09,879 Speaker 1: that is favored by more than two key numbers, favored 409 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,159 Speaker 1: by more than three, favored by more than four. The 410 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,199 Speaker 1: Colts every time they go to Jacksonville, they ship the 411 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: bed like they cannot win there. I don't know what 412 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:20,920 Speaker 1: it is. I don't know if it's the heat. I 413 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,719 Speaker 1: don't know if it's Frank Wright. Does it build good 414 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 1: game plans? I don't think Frank Reich is that good 415 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,400 Speaker 1: of a coach. Early in the season that's been proven out. 416 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 1: I think this Jacks team is on the rise, and 417 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 1: I don't think you'll get them at this kind of 418 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 1: a number the rest of the year because I think 419 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:40,880 Speaker 1: people will catch up to it. So that was one 420 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,639 Speaker 1: of my favorite picks. As our producers know. Yeah, I 421 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 1: like the Jags, and then I talked myself out of 422 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 1: it because I thought Frank Wright, Matt Ryan or desperate. 423 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 1: There's going to be heat on Frank. There's a lot 424 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 1: of heat on him. But you're talking to me out 425 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 1: of it, all right. Patriots, Saints, Lions, Eagles, Jags. You 426 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 1: know what, I'm going to sleep on it. I like 427 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 1: the Packers too, but I'm not going to go there 428 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 1: right now. God, I listen. This is a public perception game, right, 429 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:17,200 Speaker 1: And if you're gonna play the public perception game as 430 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 1: a better you can't just do it in spots where 431 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 1: you think the public is undervaluing a team and only 432 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:28,399 Speaker 1: betting underdogs. It's important to look at the whole board, right. 433 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,120 Speaker 1: It's important to think about it from the other side too. 434 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:35,880 Speaker 1: The Packers at minus ten. This is also a classic 435 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:41,159 Speaker 1: overreaction spot. The public right now loves the Bears because 436 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 1: of what they did against the Niners. They beat the 437 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:48,160 Speaker 1: Niners in a freaking month soon. Meanwhile, the Vikings beat 438 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,719 Speaker 1: up on Aaron Rodgers. All you're seeing all week is 439 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 1: the wide receiver who dropped the wide open touchdown pass. 440 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,200 Speaker 1: You're seeing the wide receiver who couldn't get his head 441 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 1: around on a short throw from Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers 442 00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:05,120 Speaker 1: being frustrated. I know how we both feel about Aaron Rodgers. 443 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 1: I would not be betting against Aaron Rodgers in this game, 444 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 1: like this is a really important game for him. This 445 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:18,359 Speaker 1: sharp side to me is the Packers. All right, Melman, 446 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: great stuff, Sharper Square every week at this time. Good 447 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: talking to you, see your brother the Volume. Make sure 448 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 1: to check out The Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond 449 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,400 Speaker 1: Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining 450 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:52,919 Speaker 1: voices in sports. Unique perspective understands behind the rope, also 451 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 1: chops up with guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. 452 00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 1: Make sure download The Draymond Green Show where wherever you 453 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, Only on the Volume podcast Network.