WEBVTT - Fed Officials Saw Slower Pace of Hikes Appropriate 0:00:01.840 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.320 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.840 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.680 plus technology, politics, economics, all furnishing the power of Business 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.160 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:19.640 analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 0:00:19.680 --> 0:00:23.239 download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:25.160 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:27.880 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:31.800 YouTube and now also on Bloomberg Quick Take. Let's set 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:34.120 your business week agenda on this Yeah, it's kind of 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:35.839 a fed Wednesday. We call it an f O m 0:00:35.920 --> 0:00:39.360 C fed Wednesday because, as Charlie mentioned, definitely market reaction 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:42.480 yields dipping down a bit, and we are definitely seeing 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:44.479 a pop up in the equity trait. So let's get 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:47.239 to it with our markets to Molly Smith is Economics 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:49.360 editor Bloomberg News. She's on the phone in New York City. 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:53.160 Creed Gupta and Gred markets correspondent at Bloomberg News and Creed. 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:55.920 Before we get into a deeper market analysis, just talk 0:00:55.960 --> 0:00:58.320 about the reaction to those fed minutes, if you would. Yeah, 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:00.800 So the stock market here, and remember we're on extremely 0:01:00.840 --> 0:01:03.840 low volume, down at seventeen from its five day average. 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:06.399 The stock market has popped on these headlines, about six 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:08.920 tents of one percent on the SMP five hundred, NASDAC 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:10.920 now hired by above one percent. I should say it 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:12.440 was kind of meandering for most of the day, So 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:15.760 a very strong positive reaction in the equity market, positive 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:17.880 reaction for the bond market as well. The tenure yield 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:20.959 three seventy one down at four basis points, and even 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:22.240 a drop of the vix. We are now at a 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:24.759 twenty handle on the VIX. We have not seen that 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:27.040 since this past summer. Um also a little bit of 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:29.959 weakness in the dollar as well. I'm gonna let Molly 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:32.560 kind of um go through these headlines here, but to me, 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:34.720 I think the one that they're most reacting to is 0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:39.920 that several officials said continued rapid tightening risk destabilizing financial markets. 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:42.880 Destabilizing not a great word. And of course they also 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:44.840 talked about in light of the termoil in the UK 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:48.240 um a really precarious situation we're gonna be obsessing about 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:49.840 this for a while. Molly, come on in on it 0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:52.320 and just break down what jumps out for you in 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:55.560 terms of those f o MC minutes. Yeah, to me, 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:59.160 this reads pretty in line with expectations and echoes a 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:02.720 lot of what we've heard in the time since the 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:06.160 policy meeting earlier this month, a lot of what Powell 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:08.959 had said in the press conference of expecting a higher 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:14.520 peak rate, which which most majority which most most participants 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:18.000 did agree with in the minutes here. And also, uh, 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.960 you know, the UM a theme of what most of 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:23.400 the Fed speak in the time since has been in 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.040 the sense of soon being appropriate to slow the pace 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:29.079 of tightening. So I think that's also pretty positive for 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.399 market drivers here in uh, you know, more solidifying those 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:36.480 bets around fifty basis points for December. Yeah, Molly, I 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:38.600 think you're right. You know, it sounds very similar to 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:41.799 what Rome pal said at the last press conference, UM, 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:44.400 and it really seems like the market is keying in 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:47.760 on that notion of slowing the pace of rate hikes 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:51.120 and sort of ignoring the idea of the terminal rate 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:53.960 being a little bit higher than what we had thought 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:56.480 before the last meeting. I mean, is the Feds sort 0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:59.359 of just kind of buying themselves some time with this 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:02.760 type of st ants, you know, saying, look, we could 0:03:02.840 --> 0:03:05.840 raise rates to ultimately higher than what everyone expected, but 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:07.840 we're going to do it more slowly. Is that is 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:10.919 that kind of the takeaway? Do you think it seems? Yeah, 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:13.080 that seems like a snare assessment. You know, they know 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:15.680 that they need to be hiking you know, well into 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:20.120 the first quarter of next year, possibly into the second quarter. 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:22.919 And that seems like what several Wall Street banks are 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:25.959 predicting as well. Um, and it's uh, you know, a 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:29.360 lot of data this morning would also uh support the 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:32.160 idea of slowing the pace. We saw a few reports 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:36.040 this morning that generally just pointed toward slowing parts of 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:39.080 the economy, and most notably with the labor markets starting 0:03:39.080 --> 0:03:42.119 to cool and continuing job was claimed being the real 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:45.320 uh indicator of that, as in people who are more 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:48.760 routinely filing for unemployment claims than a sign that people 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:51.480 are being out of work for longer. Uh. That's being 0:03:51.800 --> 0:03:55.040 that is, you know, obviously not great for the people 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:57.840 who are applying for undemployment benefits, but in the Fed's 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.560 mission right here to try to cool the Abram market 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.520 and softened demand more broadly, that is a very good indicator. 0:04:03.600 --> 0:04:05.560 Can we call this a pivot? Pretty I'm gonna first 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:07.120 get your take and then go to Molly. I don't 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:10.120 think it's a pivote as yet. We're now talking about 0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:12.640 Maybe gave me a very big lecture. He said, you 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:14.800 can't call it a pivot until they're actively cutting what 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:19.080 you can do whatever you want down. It's a step down, Mike. 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:23.320 It's a step down. Pivot, a step down. I'm gonna 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:25.800 do that before Mike gets gay in trouble. Um, I've 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:27.719 got to say that to me. I mean, look, I 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:29.680 completely agree with everything Molly is saying. But I think 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:33.080 what's really crucial once again is look what they're saying 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:37.719 here that the risk of leverage and non bank institutions 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:41.000 could amplify the shocks. That that's kind of some scary stuff. 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:44.599 There's some pretty scary language in here. Destabilize by non 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:48.760 bank institutions specifically. I think, so this is like anyone 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:52.120 that's not your your market makers, your GP mortgage, your Goldman's, 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:57.880 your Yeah, I'm just gonna say crypto, anybody that won't 0:04:57.880 --> 0:04:59.440 be at the Thanksgiving table, although I bet they'll be 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:03.480 discussion among family members. Molly, is this a pivot? I'm 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:06.040 gonna stick with Creaty's assessment here and my good friend 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:08.440 Mike McKee, Oh, come on, you guys are checking. No 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:11.159 one ever wants to argue with McKey. You can't agree. 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:13.000 I think you know, if I, if any of us 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:15.279 start saying it's a pivot, then STP is really going 0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:17.120 to go through the roof today. So I'm not going 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:20.360 to call it a pivot for risk of the stabilizing 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:23.960 the market. But there's definitely a change, significant change. Could 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:25.839 we call it a pivot in the tone of what 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:30.240 the FETE is saying? Molly, I like downshift, I really do. Um. 0:05:30.279 --> 0:05:32.320 I think you know. And the thing for me is 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:34.960 what pivot implies is that like it's that, you know, 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:39.039 a start, like a start turn away from what they've 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:41.719 been communicating. And to me, this has been what they've 0:05:41.760 --> 0:05:44.320 been communicating. This is like very much in line with 0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:47.200 what we heard at the meeting earlier this month and 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:49.880 what several feed speakers have been communicating to us. All Right, 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:52.240 we gotta go, all right, we can continue to beat 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:54.400 this um. In the meantime, do my Twitter Paul on 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:57.280 your favorite pipe for Thanksgiving. Molly Smith, economics ceterer, a 0:05:57.320 --> 0:05:59.919 Bloomberg created give to anchor and markets correspondent at Bloomberg. 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:04.320 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:08.360 Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. The minutes from 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:10.279 the last FED meeting as you just turned there out 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:13.839 just about eighteen minutes ago, and I feel like the 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.760 big takeaway for me was that the FED did see 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:22.080 officials talking about a slower pace of hikes appropriate soon, 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:26.000 but they also talked about a somewhat higher than uh 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:28.960 FED than they had previously discussed federal funds rate, the 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:30.440 ultimate level of the FED funds. So I feel like 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:32.800 there's something for everyone in this report. Let's bring in 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:35.599 Steve Skanky's chief economic advisor ever at keel Point. He 0:06:35.760 --> 0:06:38.200 is a former U. S Treasury and White House National 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:41.280 Security Council staff member. He is based in Washington, d C. 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:43.799 And that's where we find him via zoom Steve Skanky, 0:06:44.120 --> 0:06:47.280 So nice to have you here with Mike Reagan and myself. Um, 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:48.919 is it true that there's maybe a little bit of 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:52.640 everything or something in in this report for everyone? A 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:57.320 little bit. I think that's a good assessment, Carol. Uh, 0:06:57.360 --> 0:07:01.440 there's there there's nothing that's really surprised scene here. Uh. 0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:04.000 We had a dovish statement at the end of the 0:07:04.680 --> 0:07:08.480 November meetings, and then we had a somewhat hawkish UH 0:07:08.600 --> 0:07:11.680 commentary from cherre Poul and his press conference which was 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:15.240 delivering the the the notion that they may have to 0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:17.800 raise above the four and a half to four and 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:21.720 three quarters percentage points UH as the top rate of 0:07:21.800 --> 0:07:26.080 FED funds that was indicated in their September Summary of 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:33.560 Economic um outlook. So yes, a little bit devish, a 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:37.160 little bit hawkish, no big surprises for what we've been 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:39.840 hearing already, you know, Steve, when I look at the 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:42.640 stock market react the way it did to this UH 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:45.920 these minutes, you know, smps up about half a percentage point, 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:48.760 and we have the end of the year coming. A 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:51.120 lot of investors sort of assumed there'll be some sort 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:55.160 of seasonality that leads to a year end rallying in stocks. 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:58.520 Does that do you think influence the Fed? Uh the 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:01.280 next time they go out on the speaking circuit to 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:03.720 the point where they might walk some of this debbishness 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:06.240 back a little bit. If they're afraid that financial conditions 0:08:06.240 --> 0:08:09.200 are are loosening up to two aggressively. Oh no, they 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:15.360 never talk it back, They never Mike, Mike, that's a 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:20.240 that's that's a great point. Um. What's what's interesting is 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:25.280 that there was enough devilishness in it, UH in their 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:29.200 policy statement and even in share Paul's press conference. And 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:32.880 then we got this great inflation news UH the October 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:38.040 cp I, the p p I last week, and UH 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:45.160 markets just started to u basically rejoice in what was 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:48.120 good news that that the fat actions were working. They 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:53.160 could lighten up the things that they said about what 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:56.520 was it a slower pace in these circumstances would allow 0:08:56.559 --> 0:09:01.679 the committee to assess progress towards its goals of maximum 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:06.120 employment and price stability. It seemed like that UH, that 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:09.959 was being achieved, and of course the the f MC 0:09:10.160 --> 0:09:14.160 members got unnerved about that, and so last week and 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:16.720 even earlier this week you heard a lot of pushback 0:09:17.280 --> 0:09:23.120 on that. They certainly don't want irrational exuberance to set in, 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:27.920 But at the same time, a good number of them 0:09:28.320 --> 0:09:33.920 recognize that they've done a lot pretty quickly and they 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:35.920 really need to take time to reflect to see how 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:40.199 that's working out so that they don't overdo it. So 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:43.200 do you feel like when you look at the subsequent 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:45.600 data points that we're getting, as you mentioned the inflation print, 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:48.600 but even like the weekly jobless claims today right um 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:52.120 week are than expected, showing some slowing down of the 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:55.600 labor markets, still very high historically in terms of the 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:58.480 strength that we're seeing. But that's a good sign at 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:01.760 least from the FEDS perspect ative. That is a good 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:06.560 sign from the FET's perspective. And the job's number that 0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:10.400 we expect for November at the end of next week 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:15.000 also looks like it's going to be below two hundred thousand, 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.800 more in the range of a hundred and seventy five thousand. 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:23.440 Wage growth also seems to be slowing. All good things 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:27.240 because one of the recurring themes in their minutes as 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:31.520 we just look through them, is thanks to concern about 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:35.280 tightness in the labor market, and and so some of 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:40.480 the labor information out today, out earlier this week indicates 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:43.960 that it's it's becoming less tight. Uh, it is slowing. 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:50.079 That's helpful as an early indicator of avoiding what the 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:53.719 fet IS is afraid about, and that is that inflation 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:58.280 just gets built into the labor market and very hard 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:01.800 to root out. Steve. The other big takeaway from these 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:04.800 minutes is as the Fed is sort of laying the 0:11:04.800 --> 0:11:10.520 groundwork for less aggressive rate hikes going forward, their simultaneously 0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:13.640 sort of you know, prepping the market for a higher 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:16.360 terminal rate, you know, the higher peak rate in the 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:19.000 Fed funds rate. I'm I'm looking at the uh what 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.520 the Fed fund futures are implying, and they're pricing in 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.480 basically about a five percent peak in the Fed funds 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:28.360 rate towards the middle of the next year. Does that 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:31.800 sound about right to you? That sounds about right. And 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:36.040 right after the meeting, Mike, uh Uh, Fed funds futures 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:40.760 were up at five ten and change, which was which 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:45.160 was where the Fed I think was was pointing them. 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:47.960 And then of course, with a good inflation numbers, uh, 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:51.400 that dropped back to you know, four point eight Uh. 0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:54.600 And now it's as you say, it's back up about 0:11:55.080 --> 0:12:00.840 five percent um. It's also a bit of a race 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:06.600 as to which gets to five percent first, the FED 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:11.480 funch rate or inflation um Shure. Powell implied that we 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:14.720 didn't say it explicitly it as press conference a couple 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:18.200 of weeks ago that that they sort of see five 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:24.040 ten as, which was of course their sep uh inflation 0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:29.280 rate by their their there person consumption expenditures inflation metric 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:34.760 that they were going to get there, got it and accordingly. 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:38.040 But but you know, inflation coming down more quickly than 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:40.040 than they had fought. Steve, we gotta run. Have a 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.600 good Thanksgiving, Steve, stinky over at kill point. This is Bloomberg. 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:47.480 You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:51.960 Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, this 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:54.280 story definitely jumped out at me reading in this morning. 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:56.640 It's a Bloomberg opinion piece. It's about the real reasons 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:59.440 your family is sick right now, and basically it's about 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:01.920 how we're masks. For more than two years, drove down 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:06.080 the incidents of colds and flus, the viruses that causes that, 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:09.520 and as a result, we lost immunity, something that the 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:14.160 popular press Mike has dubbed immunity debt. Immunity debt. I 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:17.400 guess it's into our world. What if there's credit the 0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:20.280 fault swaps on the immunity. It feels like a new 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.960 asset class. All right, so let's get to our next guest. 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:25.120 See what he has to say. He's a friend of 0:13:25.120 --> 0:13:27.360 the program, Dr Ian LUs Bade, our clinical professor of 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:29.240 Medicine at n y U Land Going. He's on the 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:31.400 phone in New York City. Ian, good to have you 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.760 here with Mike and myself. I gotta say this is 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:37.080 why I continued to wear a mask on subways in 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:41.360 public places while flying. Um tell us about all the 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:45.680 stuff that's coming at us right now. Absolutely. First of all, 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:49.160 Happy Thanksgiving, Carol and Mike and uh, I hope it's 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:52.840 a good holiday. So yeah. So though many people enjoy 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:57.760 the holidays and feel very positive, there are both emotional 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:00.839 and health risks to it. A lot of people feel 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:05.080 somewhat isolated, depressed, anxious, but in addition to that, they're 0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:09.520 worried about potential risks. From what we're seeing now are 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:14.199 multiply infected people, both kids and adults with a combination 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.599 of influenza. And for that, we do have a vaccine, 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:20.600 so it makes sense to get your flu shot, even 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.000 though it's not a hundred percent effective because of mutations 0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:28.680 that usually provide some protection. So influenza rsp RS v 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:32.200 as you said, respiratory sinsicial virus, which we tend to 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:35.880 see more in kids, but you can also see in adults, 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:39.840 and of course based on age, can have more complications. COVID, 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.480 which hasn't gone away, although it does seem to be 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:45.680 a little less serious. So we're seeing patients often with 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:49.040 a combination of all of these and even other viruses 0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:52.400 like rhinovirus and ad no virus. So we are in 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:55.640 this kind of soup of viruses and even kids going 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:58.040 into the hospital. Friends of mine who are in the 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:01.520 ICU UM out in Long Island say when they test 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:06.280 kids with these pathogens this nasal swab, often they come 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:09.600 up positive on a multitude of these viruses. So you know, 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:11.800 what do you do? Do you invite everyone over? Do 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:13.560 you wear you know, how can you wear a mask 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:17.000 when you're all sitting down? So a mass certainly can 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:21.480 help a debt, but obviously not practical and you really 0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:24.320 have to evaluate your risk, you know, if you're older, 0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:27.360 if you have diabetes, if you have lung disease, you know, 0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:31.120 maybe sit it out this year, Maybe make your guests 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:34.640 take a COVID swab before they come in. You know, 0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:41.040 there be smart about it and emotionally prepare. In other words, 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:45.160 try not to take things too seriously, be relaxed, but 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:48.920 make sure your guests are healthy before they show up. Doctor. 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:52.040 Is there anything we can do about this quote unquote 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:54.920 immunity debt? You know, if if our immune systems are 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.080 are sort of weaker now than they were before, COVID 0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:01.680 is the old you know, taking vitamin C or drinking 0:16:01.720 --> 0:16:04.800 our institutes? Is there anything to that? Is that worthwhile 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:09.680 precaution at this definitely? Definitely Vitamin D plays a big role. 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:13.560 And most people are vitamin D deficient, so definitely most people. 0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:15.680 And you can check your levels and see where you are, 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:18.080 although there is a big range. I think vitamin D 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:24.040 supplementation makes sense to some degree. Zinc prevents attachment of viruses, 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:29.240 so being in good health in general, losing weight, exercising, um, 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:32.560 so all of that makes sense. It is less clear 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:35.440 that the fact that we haven't had as bad a 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:39.480 flu outbreak makes you more vulnerable to the flu next time. 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:42.440 I think that's a little unclear, right, because if you're 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.000 taking a vaccine or you're wearing a mask, are you 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:48.520 doing yourself a favor or not? If the next round 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:51.800 of flu you're more susceptible to. I would say that 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:54.760 it does make sense to take precautions. There's some evidence 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:58.440 that the shot helps UM. I don't think that it 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:02.600 makes sense that that if you haven't had some illnesses 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:05.439 that you're necessarily more at risk. Most of us have 0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:08.440 had RSV growing up. Most of us see a lot 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:12.000 of viruses, but they mutate from year to year. It's 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:16.120 I think vitamin D carroll is best achieved through the sun, right, Dr. 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:18.840 So I'm going to take this prescription that we should 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:22.080 be in the Caribbean for the holidays. Here here, it's good, 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:24.560 but you can't. You can't live there and in New 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:27.240 York because you're in a northern climate, the sun is 0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:30.720 at a very shallow angle. So somewhat sun exposure is 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:34.000 good also for the mood, because we know that increases 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:37.480 mood people there. There's seasonal effective disorder. When it gets 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:40.840 dark early, people get depressed. In addition, probably one of 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:44.400 the reason the holidays you're stressful. Dr les Prick, right exactly. 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:47.199 We're all getting ready for that stress that comes with 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:50.000 the holidays. Maybe we'll talk about that next time. Ian B. 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:53.200 Well Over at Dr leon Ian LUs Over at n 0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:57.040 y u landgoing Medical Center. This is Bloomberg Business Week 0:17:57.200 --> 0:18:01.200 with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Steno on 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:03.600 Bloomberg Radio. Right now, we want to talk a little 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:05.880 bit more about the crypto crash, something we talked about 0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:08.600 a lot. Uh yesterday we did that with ars Kathy 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:10.600 would Which. If you miss that conversation, check out our 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:13.119 podcast feed. It's also on the Bloomberg Terminal. I have 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:15.400 to say, though, when it comes Mike to the crypto 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:18.680 crash continues to evolve and play out every day. One 0:18:18.720 --> 0:18:20.879 angle I'm not sure if you caught it is about 0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:25.200 how cryptos crash is actually helping couples rekindle their relationships. 0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:27.920 Who knew? Yeah, and not true of the journalists and 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.800 editors covering this FTX collapse. I will say, I think 0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:33.400 my wife's tired of hearing about all this. It's kind 0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:36.080 of been nonst the late nights. But at least someone 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:40.200 is happy ending for something. No more SBF, no more SPI. Alright, 0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:42.000 so let's get to this story, which you can find 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:44.360 online at Bloomberg dot com Slash business Week. It's also 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:46.960 on the Bloomberg Terminal. Let's bring in Bloomberg Business Week 0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:49.679 contributor Joel Stein. He is on the phone in Los Angeles, 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:52.320 and Pat Ragnew York Markets and Finance out a Bloomberg 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:54.679 Business Week via zoom from New York City. Pat, I 0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:57.080 gotta say, in all of our crypto coverage, I kind 0:18:57.080 --> 0:18:58.760 of missed this one. I'm so glad you guys are 0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:01.760 on it. How did it come to your tension? Pat? Well, 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.720 you know, I think I'll what Joel talk a little 0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:06.360 bit about the people he knows, but I think all 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:09.480 of us who spent any time reporting on crypto got 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.439 to know people for whom crypto became kind of a 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:15.000 defining part of their lives. I mean, you know, a 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:17.960 lot of people listening to this are just ordinary finance 0:19:17.960 --> 0:19:21.440 workaholics who have a hard enough time sort of paying 0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:23.919 attention to this stuff. Um. You know, when the markets 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:27.600 are open to crypto has this quality of never being closed, 0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:29.960 even on the weekends, and bringing a lot of things 0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:33.840 outside of people's peripheral vision. And UM, I think a 0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:35.359 lot of people have had a hard time kind of 0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:38.879 emotionally managing that. And um, the side effect of that 0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:43.240 is that it's hard on people's relationships. But um, Joel 0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:45.760 tell me how you kind of came came onto this. Uh, 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:49.720 these were some people you knew. Yeah, my friend Igor Hiller, 0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:52.159 who's in the piece, And he was a guy I 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:55.440 always called when I ever got assigned a crypto story 0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.040 to ask him like the basics of like what the 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:00.560 hell this is all about? And he was over for 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:03.560 dinner with his longtime girlfriend. They've been together for like 0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:06.760 four years, and they told us that kind of like 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:09.000 what started as a really funny story and turned really 0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:12.000 kind of sad and serious where they almost broke up 0:20:12.560 --> 0:20:15.520 because he wasn't paying any attention to the relationship because 0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:19.399 he was so obsessed with his cryptope and hanging out 0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:22.840 with them and just checking his phone constantly and waiting 0:20:22.880 --> 0:20:25.600 for n f T drops and just like you know, 0:20:25.680 --> 0:20:28.880 degenerate gambler maybe if you'd call it d Jenning when 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:31.119 he went into these kind of phases and uh, and 0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:32.800 she kind of gave him an ultimatum that was either 0:20:32.880 --> 0:20:35.680 crypto or her. But you know, Joey, you mentioned those 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:37.919 n f T drops And I get the impression reading 0:20:37.960 --> 0:20:41.440 this that, uh, n f T is almost really worse 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:45.200 in this situation because you're stuck there waiting for these 0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:47.840 things to drop and they can be delayed. Did you 0:20:47.840 --> 0:20:50.680 get that sense to that? You know, the the addiction 0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:52.879 was almost worse when it came to n f t s, 0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:55.960 both because of the time consumption and also sort of 0:20:55.960 --> 0:20:58.920 the potential upside and those as an investments, at least 0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:01.560 for a hot minute. There, for a hot minute, n 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:04.119 f t s were. But throughout the entire you know, 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:06.760 crypto cycle, there was always a different thing that could 0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:09.840 occupy you twenty four hours a day because crypto markets 0:21:09.880 --> 0:21:13.920 don't close. So during the D five farming phase, there 0:21:14.000 --> 0:21:16.520 was always some new farm that was opening up that 0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:18.840 you had to get involved and get their coin real quick, 0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:20.719 or there'd be a coin drop, right like, people were 0:21:20.760 --> 0:21:23.560 creating new coins all the time, and Elon Musk or 0:21:23.560 --> 0:21:25.520 someone else would tell you that this was a hot 0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:27.080 coin you had to get and you had to get it, 0:21:27.200 --> 0:21:29.199 you know, when it was minted. So I don't think 0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:30.800 it was just n f t s. There were there 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:33.560 was always some new craze that you had to get 0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:35.760 involved in, and you know, maybe you had to simp 0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:39.320