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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go throwing spect We're saying it's a cash toti.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible, big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combining and want to

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Speaker 2: back and we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast,

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Speaker 2: presented by Bett MGM. I am Evan Abrams and it's

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Speaker 2: just me today. I'm solo. Jill's enjoying his Christmas. Merry

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Speaker 2: Christmas to all out there. So I'm gonna go through

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Speaker 2: all of these games, starting with Bengals and Steelers on

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Speaker 2: Saturday through the Monday night game and Ravens and the

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Speaker 2: forty nine Ers. We're gonna do this a little bit fun.

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Speaker 2: So each game we're just gonna talk three angles from

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Speaker 2: the game, something from the past, something from the present,

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Speaker 2: and potentially something from the future. Week seventeen eighteen playoffs,

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Speaker 2: a little bit of fun. Christmas angle here.

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Speaker 1: Merry Christmas and happy Holidays.

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Speaker 2: And boy do we have a gift for you.

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Speaker 1: It's a Christmas Day special.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with Bengals Steelers. Now, Steelers won the game

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Speaker 2: thirty four to eleven, covered his three point home dogs

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Speaker 2: over thirty eight and a half. So starting with the past, obviously,

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Speaker 2: Bengal's coming off an overtime game. And here's a fun

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Speaker 2: little trend. So team's coming off overtime now forty four

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Speaker 2: percent straight up, forty six percent against the spread last decade.

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Speaker 2: Now this week Minnesota, Houston, Tennessee and Cincinnati zero to

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Speaker 2: four straight up, three to one against the spread. So

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Speaker 2: definitely impacted those teams. Then you talk about the present, Hi,

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Speaker 2: I'm the gooster Christmas present. I had any feeling. Sometimes

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Speaker 2: you have to stack them in the fix just to

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Speaker 2: get any attention. Rudolph versus Pickett, I feel like is

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Speaker 2: the topic of conversation right now. Now, fun little nugget,

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Speaker 2: So career games with multiple passing touchdowns Mason Rudolph six

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Speaker 2: and eleven starts, Canny Pickett one in twenty four starts

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Speaker 2: now doesn't tell the whole story. No, but we did

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Speaker 2: see some sparking offense over the weekend. And do you

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Speaker 2: think about it? Rudolph better yards per attempt, better QB rating,

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Speaker 2: more passing touchdowns, fewer interceptions, a longer a dot. Is

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Speaker 2: he perfect? No? But I do think career wise, looking

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Speaker 2: at the whole package, he's better than pickt. Now let's

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Speaker 2: talk about the future. Zach Taylor three and twelve straight

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Speaker 2: up on the road against the AFC North fifteen twelve

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Speaker 2: and one straight up on the road versus all other divisions.

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Speaker 2: Now you say, well, what about burrow Well three and

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Speaker 2: seven straight up on the road against the AFC North two?

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Speaker 2: So not so great? Stu Bills Chargers Bills just squeak

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Speaker 2: by twenty four to twenty two. Obviously they don't cover

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Speaker 2: the twelve and a half and the game goes over

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Speaker 2: the forty four and a half. Let's talk about the

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Speaker 2: past for a second. Obviously Chargers got blown out against

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Speaker 2: the Raiders the week before and ended up covering the spread. Here,

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Speaker 2: So teams off big losses twenty or more now sixty

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Speaker 2: percent against the spread kind of continues, and teams has

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Speaker 2: double digit underdogs off big losses, so thirty five plus

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Speaker 2: that trend now goes to twenty four to one against

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Speaker 2: the spread. That's eighty three percent last twenty years. So

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Speaker 2: the bounce back tends to work in that spot. Now,

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Speaker 2: let's talk about the present. The reason why Buffalo didn't

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Speaker 2: cover the game, but just squeak by. You know, it

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Speaker 2: may be more than this, but Josh Allen's turnovers just

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Speaker 2: doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Twenty nine interceptions since

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Speaker 2: started last year, most in the NFL eighteen interceptions while leading,

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Speaker 2: So I think thatlls a massive part of the story.

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Speaker 2: Now let's look to the future. So the Bills are

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Speaker 2: big favorites against the Patriots this week. Can you name

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Speaker 2: every quarterback to be listed as a double digit favorite

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Speaker 2: versus Belichick's New England teams? Now that you're gonna tell

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Speaker 2: me Josh Allen if they close. So this week Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 2: Kurt Warner, Hayton Manning, and Cordell Stewart. So that's a

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Speaker 2: fun one. Now, Buffalo overall really struggling to cover these

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Speaker 2: big numbers. So they are three and eight ATS in

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Speaker 2: the last eleven games thirteen nineteen and one against the

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Speaker 2: spreadin to start of last year. And that includes two

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Speaker 2: and eight ATS as a nine point favorite or higher.

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Speaker 2: So they're just not covering those numbers and obviously huge

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Speaker 2: number against New England. All right, let's go to the

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Speaker 2: Sunday games. Hoy, do we have a gift for you?

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Speaker 1: Visions of Super Bowls still dance in the heads of

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Speaker 1: these teams.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with Cleveland and Houston. Cleveland covers as a

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Speaker 2: three point favorite on the road game over thirty nine

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Speaker 2: and a half. I feel like the thing we have

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Speaker 2: to start with here the Browns. Let's reflect on the

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Speaker 2: brown season for a second. So it's their most straight

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Speaker 2: up wins in the season with a win total of

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Speaker 2: nine or more since moving to Cleveland in ninety nine,

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Speaker 2: now with ten wins. Also their most wins in a

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Speaker 2: season with forty to one Super Bowl odds or shorter

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Speaker 2: since nineteen ninety and that's eleven total seasons. So this

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Speaker 2: is really just the best year Cleveland's had from an

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Speaker 2: expectations point of view in a long time. And obviously

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Speaker 2: it's Flacco. Seven point five yards pert tempt with the

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Speaker 2: Browns would be the highest for any Cleveland quarterback minimum

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Speaker 2: fifty attempts for the Browns since ninety two. It's been

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Speaker 2: a long time since Cleveland's had a quarterback just look

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Speaker 2: this good. Now, let's talk about the present. Are you

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Speaker 2: the ghost of Christmas present? Fifty five quarterbacks have had

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Speaker 2: at least fifty plays this season. Stroud is fifteenth in

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Speaker 2: expected points added per player EPA per play Keenum is

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Speaker 2: fifty third. Stroud is sixth. In a dot or average

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Speaker 2: depth of target, Keenum's thirty ninth. I mean, it doesn't

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Speaker 2: get much more simpler than Houston just needs their quarterback back.

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Speaker 2: They played well in the second half, got closer, but

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Speaker 2: this was a complete blowout. Now the future, talk about

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Speaker 2: the brain for a second. They play the Jets on

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Speaker 2: Thursday Night Football and then they're at Cincinnati. So the

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Speaker 2: game with the Jets this weekend, the nugget to know

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Speaker 2: is really this. So Stefanski in his career is thirty

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Speaker 2: six and thirty straight up, no questions asked. But he's

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Speaker 2: fourteen and twenty straight up after a win two and

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Speaker 2: zero with Flacco, twelve and twenty with all of the quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: The six other quarterbacks are all under five hundred in

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Speaker 2: that spot. So maybe Flacco's the other side of the trend,

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Speaker 2: but hasn't been great for Stefanski after wins. Let's see

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Speaker 2: if Flacco can keep that rolling or not all right.

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Speaker 2: Moving to Lions Vikings, so this was probably one of

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Speaker 2: the more entertaining games of the day. Lions beat the

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Speaker 2: Vikings thirty twenty four in Minnesota two and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorites on the close over forty eight. Now, when

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Speaker 2: you talk about the past, you got to talk about

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Speaker 2: Detroit so finds a way to win the division after

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Speaker 2: what felt like they were blowing this game at certain points.

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Speaker 2: So the first division win for them. And you know

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Speaker 2: since nineteen ninety three you even saw Mullinso the interceptions

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Speaker 2: during the game O'Connell look just ticked off. Minnesota has

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Speaker 2: actually done decent, at least recently without Kirk Cousins. So

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Speaker 2: they've scored twenty points or more in five of seven

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Speaker 2: games without Kirk. They are three and four. But honestly,

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Speaker 2: they've looked better than I thought. The one issue has

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Speaker 2: just been the interceptions. They've got eleven interceptions since Kirk's out,

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Speaker 2: most in the NFL and Mullins four on the day

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Speaker 2: against the Lions, which not great. So that's the past.

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Speaker 2: It is you the ghost of Christmas pass the present.

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Speaker 2: How could you not talk about what Gof's done indoors

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Speaker 2: versus outdoors. We talk about it all the time, but

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Speaker 2: the numbers are just so glaring. So indoors, he's now

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Speaker 2: thirty three and sixteen against the spread. Now, even if

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Speaker 2: they don't win this game and Minnesota does come back,

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Speaker 2: his completion percentage sixty seven percent indoors, sixty two percent outdoors,

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Speaker 2: so it's a five percent there. Then you look at

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Speaker 2: the yards per attempt as a jump as well. Goth

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Speaker 2: is just better indoors versus outdoors. The outdoors thirty five

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Speaker 2: four thirty five and two against the spread, so under

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Speaker 2: five hundred and seventeen games over five hundred indoors. And

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Speaker 2: not to mention, Detroit does end the season at Dallas

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Speaker 2: and versus Minnesota at home, so goff in the Dome

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Speaker 2: indoors till the playoffs. Now, for the future, it's probably

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Speaker 2: right to look at the next game for the Detroit Lions,

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Speaker 2: especially off this emotional win, and there it is. They

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Speaker 2: play Saturday night against the Cowboys, who off an awful loss. Now,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna have to lay a number here with Dallas,

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Speaker 2: but probably is a good roller coaster spot to play

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Speaker 2: with the Cowboys. Now, let's talk about the vikings quickly.

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Speaker 2: To reach the playoffs, they're gonna need to make up

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Speaker 2: a game on either the Rams or the Seahawks, and

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Speaker 2: the NFC standings, likely by winning two games against either

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Speaker 2: Detroit and Green Bay, while Los Angeles or Seattle have

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Speaker 2: to lose one. So tough road for Minnesota. All right,

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Speaker 2: Packers in Carolina, green Bay just finds a way to

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Speaker 2: this one thirty three to thirty after Carolina comes back late,

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Speaker 2: tries to steal the game, but the Packers don't cover

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Speaker 2: the spread. The Packers were minus three and a half,

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Speaker 2: so Carolina closes the closing number game over thirty nine

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Speaker 2: and a half. I think the topic of conversation when

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Speaker 2: you talk about the past is really Green Bay and

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Speaker 2: their defense. So twenty fifth in EPA per play this season,

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Speaker 2: twenty eighth since Week ten. Now, just listen to these

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Speaker 2: numbers that opposing quarterbacks have put up against the Packers.

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Speaker 2: So Bryce three twelve two touchdowns, no picks, Baker three

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Speaker 2: eighty one, four touchdowns, no picks, Cutlets one fifty eight

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Speaker 2: a touchdown, no interceptions, Mahomes two ten one in one,

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Speaker 2: Goff three thirty two two and zero, Herbert two sixty

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Speaker 2: two and zero. It's just one after the other after

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Speaker 2: the other. Now green Bay faces Minnesota and Chicago coming up,

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Speaker 2: so not exactly a gauntlet. But of those six quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: twelve touchdowns, one pick, So there's a problem in green Bay.

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Speaker 2: Not for the present. Carolina looked good in the game,

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Speaker 2: but they still haven't run one play in which they

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Speaker 2: are leading. In the fourth quarter. They trailed thirty sixteen,

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Speaker 2: they tied the game, and then they ended up losing.

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Speaker 2: And both of their wins this year have come on

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Speaker 2: the final play. So Carolina just you know, not in

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Speaker 2: that position late in the game yet, and Bryce looked frustrated.

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Speaker 2: Now for the future, it's probably just a actionable look

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Speaker 2: from Carolina's point of view. They're ten and five against

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Speaker 2: the first quarter spread this season, thirty two and seventeen

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Speaker 2: first quarter ats the past three years. Now second quarter

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Speaker 2: they're four and eleven second quarter ats this year, worse

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Speaker 2: than the NFL, So that's been the trend. Obviously didn't

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Speaker 2: cover first quarter against Green Bay, but I think against

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville and Tampa there might be a spot there. All right,

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Speaker 2: Colts Falcons. Falcons pretty much just dominate this one. They

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Speaker 2: win the game twenty nine to ten as two and

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Speaker 2: a half point favorites. Game goes under forty four and

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Speaker 2: a half. Personally, this was a game I love with Atlanta.

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Speaker 2: I thought they were going to dominate they played well.

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Speaker 2: The reason I did kind of like Atlanta in this

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Speaker 2: game is Heineke over Ritter this year twelfth versus twenty

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Speaker 2: fourth and EPA per play nine percent better success rate.

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Speaker 2: Heinecke than Ritter. I just overall, I think he makes

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Speaker 2: Atlanta a more steady team, less turnovers, and I think

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Speaker 2: that goes a long way, especially when you look forward.

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Speaker 2: The next two games are on the road. Ridder is

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Speaker 2: such a better home quarterback than road. Now let's look

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Speaker 2: to the present. I'm your Ghost of Christmas present. Gardner

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Speaker 2: Minshew continues to play his role. He is eight and

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Speaker 2: four against a spread as a favorite, nine and fourteen

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Speaker 2: against spread as a dog this season five and zero

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Speaker 2: against a spread as a favorite, two and four against

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Speaker 2: a spread as a dog. So again, the role Minshew

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Speaker 2: continues to play it. Now to the future. Can the

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Speaker 2: Falcons keep this rolling? The Falcons are five and fourteen

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Speaker 2: straight up, five thirteen and one against the spread after

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Speaker 2: a straight up win under Arthur Smith. The last twenty years,

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Speaker 2: he has one hundred and thirty, seventh of one hundred

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Speaker 2: and forty four coaches and second worst among active coaches.

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Speaker 2: You the Ghost of Christmas future.

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Speaker 1: The action Network podcast is presented by bet MGM used

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler.

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Speaker 2: Oh, Merry Christmas. That's unbelievable what he just did. That's

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Speaker 2: sick Seattle and Tennessee Seattle. Listen, the clothes was pretty

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Speaker 2: much three, so it was a push, But I know

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Speaker 2: a lot of people got Tennessee plus three and a half,

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Speaker 2: so probably covering by the hook there and the game

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Speaker 2: itself under forty two and a half. When you talk

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Speaker 2: about the past, not sure how you don't mention Houdini here,

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Speaker 2: and that is the role Seattle continues to play. So

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Speaker 2: Titans led ten to six entering the fourth quarter, Seattle

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Speaker 2: obviously won the game. This is Seattle's fourth win this

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Speaker 2: year when trailing entering the fourth. They are four and

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Speaker 2: five straight up. That is tied for the most wins

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. Only Pittsburgh has four wins two. The

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Speaker 2: rest of the NFL is actually seventeen percent win percentage

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Speaker 2: when trailing enter the fourth. So Seattle just finding it

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Speaker 2: somewhere in the bag. And this game was Gino figuring

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Speaker 2: it out. Now to the present. Wow, if it isn't

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Speaker 2: the ghost of Christmas present obviously the funny part. Who

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Speaker 2: does Seattle play next? Well, of course Pittsburgh Seattle minus three,

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Speaker 2: minus three and a half at home, up from minus

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Speaker 2: two and a half on the look ahead against Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: But this spot has Tomlin written all over it.

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Speaker 1: I love the false enthusiasm.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna see if we can make what do you

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Speaker 2: guys quit today? He has traveled to Mst. And So

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Speaker 2: Mountain and Pacific five times as an underdog last five years.

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Speaker 2: He is five and zero against the spread. Tends to

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Speaker 2: travel and get in the number. Now to the future,

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Speaker 2: Oh my god, the Titans. So the Titans now have

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Speaker 2: seven losses after leading entering the fourth quarter since the

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Speaker 2: start of last season, tied for the most in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: And finally, Titans have just struggled offensively lately. They have

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Speaker 2: now gone thirty four consecutive games without scoring thirty points,

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Speaker 2: longest streaking franchise history, and not great going forward. All right,

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Speaker 2: Washington at the Jets, Oh man, this is a wild one.

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Speaker 2: So the Jets win the game, thirty twenty eight. They

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Speaker 2: closed minus three, so Washington did get the cover. Game

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Speaker 2: goes over thirty six and a half. Start with the

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Speaker 2: past here, it goes to Christmas past or something, as

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Speaker 2: I did with Atlanta. I think it's time for a

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Speaker 2: Please start this other quarterback, or at least please start

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Speaker 2: him if you want to bet Washington. So let's start

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Speaker 2: with a fact. Howell is the first quarterback with seven

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Speaker 2: team plus interceptions and fifty plus sacks since Blake Bortles

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Speaker 2: in twenty fourteen. Oh and Blake Bortles again in twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 2: So Howell's been absolutely atrocious. Now you look at Brissett. Now,

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Speaker 2: he's only played a handful of plays this season, but

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Speaker 2: he's been really, really good in those plays. He's made

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Speaker 2: other receivers look good in that team. So I do

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Speaker 2: think it's something you need to play Washington going forward.

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Speaker 2: Now you talk about the present, the Jets simply win

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Speaker 2: when they aren't supposed to. It's like science. They move

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Speaker 2: from the five to seventh spot in the draft to

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Speaker 2: now eighth or ninth with the win if you look

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Speaker 2: forward as well. The Jets next week face the Browns

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Speaker 2: in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football and Sala in his

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Speaker 2: career five ten and one against spread after a straight

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Speaker 2: up win including one to three and one this year

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Speaker 2: and ohing two to one short rest. So hopefully the

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Speaker 2: not'm celebrating beating Washington for too long. Now to the future.

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Speaker 2: Hard not to ignore Washington's massive number next week at

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Speaker 2: home again San Francisco off the loss now, big home

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Speaker 2: dogs are on a run home dogs of seven or

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Speaker 2: more sixty one ats since twenty twenty and twenty two

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Speaker 2: and eleven this year. So been on a pretty good

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Speaker 2: run there, all right. Jacksonville at Tampa Bay going to

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Speaker 2: the four o'clock slate, Now Tampa Bay pretty much just

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Speaker 2: dominates the game. They're up early, they're scoring touchdowns, they

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Speaker 2: cover the two and a half at home, game goes

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Speaker 2: under the forty three and a half just barely. Now

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Speaker 2: you talk about the past, it's probably something no future

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Speaker 2: as well, but it's Baker Mayfield, he just can't keep

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Speaker 2: getting away with. This is probably the meme to use.

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Speaker 2: So his last three games eight touchdowns, zero interceptions, eight

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Speaker 2: hundred and eight passing yards three and zero for the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: Only Tom Brady has done that in Tampa Bay history.

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Speaker 2: Those stats right there, So what a run right now

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Speaker 2: for Baker. Now the present, the Jaguars. They've lost four

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Speaker 2: straight after starting the season eight in three. The Jags

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Speaker 2: are the third team in the last twenty years to

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Speaker 2: lose four in a row and still be five hundred

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Speaker 2: straight up or better this late into the season. The

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Speaker 2: other teams twenty twenty two Dolphins they lost in the

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Speaker 2: wildcard round, twenty twenty one Ravens lost in the wildcard round.

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Speaker 2: So not great for Jacksonville going on this skit at

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Speaker 2: this time of year and the future. This could be

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Speaker 2: like the Ghost of Christmas future. The Jaguars worry again

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Speaker 2: is probably just Trevor Lawrence. Since Week thirteen and Lawrence's injury,

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Speaker 2: He's nineteenth of thirty six quarterbacks in the EPA for

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Speaker 2: play twenty seventh in completion percentage. He's thrown five interceptions

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Speaker 2: since the injury, below sixty percent in three straight he's

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Speaker 2: taken ten sacks. Something is wrong with Lawrence, and I

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Speaker 2: think it's going to impact them going forward. Jacksonville is

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Speaker 2: at home against Carolina and then at Tennessee, so there's

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Speaker 2: some worry there. All right, Arizona at Chicago, Chicago covers

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Speaker 2: the four and a half points bread at home. Can't

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Speaker 2: believe I bet Arizona in this game, and I still

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Speaker 2: can't believe I'm sitting here saying that Chicago is a

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Speaker 2: four and a half point favorite. But Arizona's just terrible.

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Speaker 2: And we'll get to that in a second. So when

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Speaker 2: you talk about the past, this is just a fun

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Speaker 2: one that tends to pop up sometimes, so I figured

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Speaker 2: it was a good nugget to toss in here. So

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Speaker 2: teams after playing the forty nine ers are now seventeen

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Speaker 2: and thirty five and one straight up twenty thirty three

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Speaker 2: and two, so pretty poor since twenty twenty one, so

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Speaker 2: past three seasons. Difficult to play that team now. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: Ravens against the Dolphins next week in that spot on

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Speaker 2: short rest as well. All right, let's talk about the present.

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Speaker 2: I'm the ghost of Christmas present. The Cardinals defense is

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Speaker 2: just absolutely terrible and they continue to be terrible, and

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Speaker 2: they look terrible against Chicago this week. Last and pressure eight,

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Speaker 2: last and first downs allowed, last and EPA for play

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Speaker 2: on defense, last and success rate. They've got Philly and

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Speaker 2: Seattle coming up, so two teams that are gonna need

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Speaker 2: those games. So not good. Now to the future. Arizona

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Speaker 2: plays in Philly this week. Now. They just lost in Chicago,

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Speaker 2: another cold weather game potentially, so they are fifteen and

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Speaker 2: twenty four in the last twenty years straight up in

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Speaker 2: fifty degrees or colder weather, not something they deal with. Well,

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Speaker 2: didn't look great this week, so we'll see how they

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Speaker 2: look in Philly next week.

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Speaker 1: And if you are a van merry Christmas.

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Speaker 2: All right. Now to the most anticipated game of at

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Speaker 2: least probably Sunday, Cowboys Dolphins. Now, the closing spread here

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Speaker 2: has Miami at one and a half point favorite. It

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Speaker 2: was two, it was two and a half. But the

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Speaker 2: Dolphins get to win twenty two to twenty. Game goes

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Speaker 2: under forty eight and a half. Listen, this is one

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Speaker 2: of the most even games you'll see first downs, yards, drives,

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Speaker 2: yards were play rushing, red zone penalties. You look at

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Speaker 2: the box score, even on both sides. Some bad play

359
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Speaker 2: calling some bad runs caugh cough Tony Pollard. Just a

360
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Speaker 2: big win for Miami, their first win against an over

361
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Speaker 2: five hundred straight up team since Week three last year

362
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Speaker 2: against the Bills. And the stat to probably note from

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Speaker 2: Dak's point of view, even though honestly he played pretty well,

364
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Speaker 2: when you look at the numbers, Dak falls to six

365
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Speaker 2: and fourteen straight up on the road versus over five

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Speaker 2: hundred teams. That ranks one hundred and fifteenth of one

367
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Speaker 2: hundred and sixteen quarterbacks in money line profitability since he

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Speaker 2: was drafted. The worst is Andy Dalton. Just a tough

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Speaker 2: stat but kind of just shows Dallas's struggles on the road.

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Speaker 2: The present is honestly just home road when it comes

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Speaker 2: to the Cowboys. Cowboys seven to zho straight up, six

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Speaker 2: and one against the spread at home, now three and

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Speaker 2: five straight up and against the spread on the road. Honestly,

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Speaker 2: that trend continues over the last few years to Dallas

375
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Speaker 2: is dominated at home and obviously they split the rest

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Speaker 2: of the way. They are at home against Detroit, then

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Speaker 2: they have to go to Washington to end the year.

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Speaker 2: For both these teams, it's pretty much about the future.

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Speaker 2: To the future, I fear you more than any I

380
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Speaker 2: have seen. Miami and Dallas clinch playoff spots. Miami gets

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Speaker 2: the AFC East with a win at the Ravens or

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Speaker 2: a win versus the Bills. From Dallas' point of view,

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Speaker 2: their road to the NFC East is winning out and

384
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Speaker 2: one Eagles loss. So that's what both those teams need

385
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Speaker 2: to get their division crowns. Let's go to Sunday Night football,

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Speaker 2: Patriots Broncos.

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Speaker 1: On at Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 2: And the Patriots get the outright win as seven point

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Speaker 2: dogs twenty six twenty three game goes over the thirty

390
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Speaker 2: seven and a half. The only thing to talk about

391
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Speaker 2: here is really a survivor. Anybody who went with the

392
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Speaker 2: Peyton Russ connection, well, it's screwed them all year, and

393
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Speaker 2: it's screwed him in this game. So Russ and Peyton's

394
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Speaker 2: three biggest money line favorites this season, which would be

395
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Speaker 2: Sunday's game, Week two versus the Commanders and Week one

396
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Speaker 2: versus the Bears, all at home, all losses. Broncos have

397
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Speaker 2: just been in absolute disappointment all right to the present.

398
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Speaker 2: The Broncos aren't eliminated yet, so they've got two AFC

399
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Speaker 2: West games coming up, they can still get there with

400
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Speaker 2: you know, barely one percent, but hey, week seventeen not eliminated,

401
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Speaker 2: So you're telling me there's a chance the one actionable

402
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Speaker 2: trend going forward which worked this week because they look terrible.

403
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Speaker 2: Roncos are now four and eleven against a third quarter

404
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,719
Speaker 2: spread this year just issues coming out of the locker room,

405
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Speaker 2: and even last year before Peyton they are eleven and

406
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Speaker 2: twenty one third quarter spread last two years now future

407
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Speaker 2: I in the Ghost of Christmas way few Josh Belichick

408
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Speaker 2: three seven and one against the spread after a straight

409
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Speaker 2: up win last two years, two to one this year.

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Speaker 2: So normally the thing would be go against New England

411
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Speaker 2: next week, but huge number in Buffalo. So if you

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Speaker 2: think Buffalo blows them out, the numbers do back that up.

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Speaker 2: What due time for Christmas? So Raiders Chiefs kicked off

414
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Speaker 2: Monday's slate at one o'clock and the Raiders just pulled

415
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Speaker 2: off something that I don't think any of us I've

416
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Speaker 2: ever seen before. They win the game twenty to fourteen

417
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Speaker 2: as eleven point dogs in Kansas City. I think it's

418
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Speaker 2: just about getting some of these stats out of the way.

419
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Speaker 2: So Mahomes was thirty three and Zho straight up in

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Speaker 2: November or later as a favorite of over a touchdown

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Speaker 2: streak over Mahomes. Now career losses as a double digit favorite,

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Speaker 2: two against the Raiders, he's three and two straight up

423
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Speaker 2: all time. One against all other teams, he's twenty one

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Speaker 2: and one straight up. Now from O'Connell's point of view,

425
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Speaker 2: man he didn't complete a pass in three entire quarters

426
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Speaker 2: and won the game. His sixty two total passing yards

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Speaker 2: was the fewest in a straight up win with at

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Speaker 2: least twenty pass attempts since Eli Manning's fifty nine in

429
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 2: two thousand and seven. We just this game was completely nuts.

430
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 2: Now let's talk about the present. So Antonio Pierce moves

431
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 2: to five to one and one against a spread in

432
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 2: his career. He is covering the number by twelve point

433
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 2: two points per game. He's seven to OZHO on a

434
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 2: six point tis all his games close. He's coaching great.

435
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 2: He is the most profitable coach against the spread for

436
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 2: the Raiders in the last twenty years and the best

437
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 2: ATS one percentage for the Raiders in the Wildcard era.

438
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 2: Now to the future. What is going on with Kansas City?

439
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 2: So second half unders have been the play because they've

440
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 2: been struggling so much. Second half unders are thirteen and

441
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 2: two in case games this year. Fourth quarter hunders fourteen

442
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 2: and one. Now with the loss today, Casey eliminated from

443
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 2: the bye week and AFC West not yet clinched, So

444
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 2: you know, it looks like we're gonna see Mahomes' first

445
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 2: road playoff game. Loading up right this second to the

446
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 2: four to thirty game Giants at Eagles. The Eagles get

447
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 2: to win thirty three to twenty five, but do not

448
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 2: cover the lofty fourteen points spread goes over forty one

449
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:01,879
Speaker 2: and a half. Now to the past ghost of Christmas past,

450
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 2: stop making Boston Scott happen. Guys, he was the most

451
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 2: bet player to score a touchdown at a number of

452
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 2: different shops week sixteen, Like, people, we got to be

453
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 2: smarter than this one carry three yards and a fumble lost.

454
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,959
Speaker 2: We were betting, will he lose a fumble? You might

455
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: have cashed, but he did not score a touchdown. Present,

456
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 2: Can the Giants play spoiler? Is really the question? They

457
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 2: play the Rams and the Eagles again on deck at home,

458
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 2: and the Giants have been you know, they've been covering

459
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 2: the number lately. Four and one ats last five, six,

460
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 2: three and one last ten. They're frisky, and I think

461
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 2: Tyrod did make him better today, So we have to

462
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,439
Speaker 2: see what decision Table has going forward. Now to the future.

463
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 2: The Eagles three home games they've played against the NFCS

464
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 2: this year, an ot win over Washington, a last play

465
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 2: to beat the Cowboys, and a last play basically to

466
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 2: beat the Giants. So just no blowout wins, nothing in

467
00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 2: dominant fashion, and I think that's probably the issue with

468
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 2: Philadelphia so far. They just have two wins of ten

469
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,199
Speaker 2: plus points this year, and the fewest ever for a

470
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 2: Super Bowl winner was three, done twice last by the

471
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 2: Broncos in twenty fifteen. Ten of the last eleven Super

472
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 2: Bowl champs have had six of these types of games,

473
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: Philly only with two, So no dominance, and we're gonna

474
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 2: have to see if that comes to their favor or

475
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 2: their detriment in the playoffs. All right now, Finally, Ravens

476
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 2: and forty nine Ers, the game of the year, the

477
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 2: game of the weekend, the game we've all been waiting for,

478
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 2: basically because both these teams have probably played the best

479
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 2: and been dominant, and Baltimore just looked more competent from

480
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 2: the beginning to the end from three interceptions and for

481
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 2: Purty in the first half that really only led to

482
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 2: four point Baltimore lead at the half, but even in

483
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 2: the second half, you know, just looked better the entire time.

484
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 2: So the stat to know is probably the fact that

485
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 2: Lamar and ba just continue to do amazing things in

486
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 2: the first half. They are fifty and twenty eight first

487
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 2: half ats as a combos sixty four percent. That is

488
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 2: the best mark since two thousand and five. That includes

489
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 2: twelve and three first half ats this year, also best

490
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 2: in the NFL, So they've been rolling early. Now when

491
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 2: you talk about the present, it's probably the underdog trend

492
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 2: that everyone was talking about this week. You know, people

493
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 2: thought one way, people thought the other, whatever, But honestly,

494
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 2: the numbers are the numbers. Lamar twelve and two ats

495
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:36,479
Speaker 2: as a dog now Ravens twenty and four ats as

496
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,439
Speaker 2: a dog in the last twenty four games in that

497
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 2: spot just looked really, really good and competent. And San Francisco,

498
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 2: San Francisa Dophense just looked a little struggling would be

499
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: the word. And I think the last part here is

500
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 2: the MVP at halftime of the game Herdy was still

501
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 2: plus one twenty five favorite, Lamar was plus two thirty,

502
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey was plus three hundred and then it was

503
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 2: all the way to twelve to one at TUA. Now

504
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 2: in the post game, Lamar is minus one eighty favorite

505
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: to an MVP, Christian McCaffrey plus four fifty two to

506
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 2: nine to one, Josh Allen thirteen to one, Dat Prescott

507
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 2: nineteen to one, and Brock Purdy sitting all the way

508
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 2: around eighteen to one to twenty to one at some books.

509
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 2: So from minus to ten range to twenty to one overnight.

510
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 2: That is some Monday night football game. Well that said, folks,

511
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,199
Speaker 2: that's all fifteen games this week. That's Week sixteen. That

512
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 2: is the Action Network podcast presented by Bett MGM. Thank

513
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 2: you for tuning in, and let's cash the tickets.

514
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

515
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

516
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

517
00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:04,800
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