Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. This meet Joey P joe P Zapia and
Speaker 1: it's time to look ahead to week eight in the NFL.
Speaker 1: See if there's some early values on the lines. By
Speaker 1: Apocalypse is past us and everybody's playing this week. We've
Speaker 1: got a full slate of games. Should be good times.
Speaker 1: It's always good times with Sam Hoppin and Pat fitz
Speaker 1: Morris join me here on the show. Gentlemen, let's just
Speaker 1: jump right into it because we've got a ton of
Speaker 1: games to go through today. And don't forget everybody. If
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Speaker 1: as well. We gotta start with Thursday night football. Short
Speaker 1: week here underway for the Buffalo Bills, which is a
Speaker 1: good thing. They don't have time to dwell on the
Speaker 1: loss to the New England Patriots. Yeah, that's right, said
Speaker 1: it a lost to the New England Patriots. The number
Speaker 1: for this game is forty two and a half. So far,
Speaker 1: it looks like Buffalo is seven point favorites, no doubt
Speaker 1: they're that number. You can get a dk the over
Speaker 1: under right now at FanDuel if you like Tampa for
Speaker 1: the upset. It's plus three fifteen on the money line. Pat,
Speaker 1: let's start with you with this one. Does Buffalo just
Speaker 1: kind of put their head down, get back to work
Speaker 1: and beat up on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that,
Speaker 1: like frankly, watching Baker Mayfield throw completely into double coverage
Speaker 1: all day long, it's a very dangerous sign of things
Speaker 1: to come if that continues.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Baker Mayfield talked about, you know, big comeback
Speaker 2: after their disappointing performance against the Lions in Week six
Speaker 2: and then maybe even a more disappointing performance against a
Speaker 2: worst opponent, the Falcons in Week seven.
Speaker 3: But I actually do lean.
Speaker 2: Towards the Buccaneers here, Like, going into that loss to
Speaker 2: the Falcons, the Buccaneers were seventeenth and the Massy Peabody
Speaker 2: Power ratings and fifteenth in total DVOA.
Speaker 3: So this is not a terrible team.
Speaker 2: Granted they had a really disappointing performance against the Falcons,
Speaker 2: but this Bill's offense has struggled to put points on
Speaker 2: the board two straight weeks against the Giants and against.
Speaker 3: Your Patriots shoe.
Speaker 2: So like, I don't want to lay a touchdown with
Speaker 2: the Bills to a decent team, even at home. Like, yeah,
Speaker 2: they could go come in and blow out, blow out,
Speaker 2: the Buccaneers blow their doors off.
Speaker 3: But man, I'll take the touchdown.
Speaker 1: Here, all right? Taking the touchdown? Sam, When you look
Speaker 1: at this line, anything feel off to you, any early
Speaker 1: value you might want to jump on.
Speaker 4: I agree with fitz here. I think with the lower
Speaker 4: total and the full seven and a half points you
Speaker 4: can get with Tampa Bay, I'd be taking that. I'm
Speaker 4: number looking for a reason to back Baker Mayfield. But
Speaker 4: the Bills defense has struggled lately. Last week against the Patriots,
Speaker 4: they allowed their highest success rate in high stp or
Speaker 4: play in a game against a struggling New England offense
Speaker 4: upflow pass rush has been good. We've seen them be
Speaker 4: able to get to the quarterback even without blitzing. But
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay right now is the only team to have
Speaker 4: had the same five starting players at o line for
Speaker 4: every single snap this season. So I think that continuity
Speaker 4: will help them and we'll be able to keep them
Speaker 4: within a touchdown.
Speaker 1: On Thursday night, the Los Angeles Rams are coming off
Speaker 1: a loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They're going
Speaker 1: to travel to the Cowboys coming fresh off thereby. The
Speaker 1: number for this one is forty five. It feels about right.
Speaker 1: Dallas six and a half point favorites, all these numbers
Speaker 1: coming from FanDuel plus two forty on the money line
Speaker 1: here for the Rams in the potential upset Sam. The
Speaker 1: Cowboys have been a bit of an enigma. They got
Speaker 1: their w a eaked one out there against the Chargers,
Speaker 1: much of the chagrin of that lady in the stands.
Speaker 1: But can they keep it rolling here and get two
Speaker 1: in a row. Do you think the six and a
Speaker 1: half is giving the Cowboys too much credit?
Speaker 4: I don't think it's giving them too much credit. I've
Speaker 4: made this Dallas by six points I think this number
Speaker 4: is pretty close to spot and I don't see a
Speaker 4: ton of value right now. The Rams have cooled off
Speaker 4: a bit from their hot start. They don't have a
Speaker 4: game with an offensive success rate over fifty percent since
Speaker 4: that Week one game against the Seahawks. So I think
Speaker 4: the Rams are starting to become what people expected heading
Speaker 4: into the season. They're staying competitive in games, but they
Speaker 4: just don't have the full firepower on offense and the
Speaker 4: defense to be able to keep them in games. So
Speaker 4: I think this number spot on right now. Don't see
Speaker 4: a ton of value, but do think Dallas comes away.
Speaker 5: With the win.
Speaker 1: Pat to six and a half to me is giving
Speaker 1: the Cowboys just to hair too much credit. And I
Speaker 1: know the Rams struggled a little bit, you know last
Speaker 1: game against Pittsburgh. There maybe a wake up call Daryl Henderson,
Speaker 1: Royce Freeman we talked about on the Waiver Wire show
Speaker 1: and fantasy pros picking up the slack in that backfield.
Speaker 1: They's had a ton of injuries. With a little bit
Speaker 1: more pract time and cohesion, can the Rams get back
Speaker 1: on track and cover the six and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel sort of pulled back and forth between
Speaker 2: something you just said Joe and something Sam just said.
Speaker 2: It does feel like it's giving the Cowboys too much
Speaker 2: credit to go up to six and a half in
Speaker 2: this game. But Sam made the point that the Rams
Speaker 2: have maybe reverted to being the team that we thought
Speaker 2: they were going to be coming into the season. The
Speaker 2: Rams are sort of in the class of the Arizona
Speaker 2: Cardinals in that category teams that the first three weeks
Speaker 2: of the season we were surprised at how plucky they
Speaker 2: were and how competitive they were, and maybe in the
Speaker 2: three or four weeks since then they have become more
Speaker 2: of the tomato can that we thought they were going
Speaker 2: to be early in the season. So yeah, I'm kind
Speaker 2: of torn here. I don't see any value in this.
Speaker 2: I'm probably just going to stay away.
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit on the Rams side right now.
Speaker 1: I think the six and a half is really interesting.
Speaker 1: I don't want to watch this one though, because Cowboys
Speaker 1: are a very public team. If people start betting them
Speaker 1: up a little bit, maybe this number gets a little
Speaker 1: bit more, if it gets a little higher than I'm
Speaker 1: really on the Rams. I think the Cooper Cup, Phuk
Speaker 1: and Akua think could that combination could cause some problems there,
Speaker 1: Potentially for the Cowboys. Remember Trevon Diggs out for the year.
Speaker 1: That's been a big loss. Has really showed itself in
Speaker 1: a lot of these games. Gilmour not quite the same
Speaker 1: player he was a few years ago. The Houston Texans
Speaker 1: three and three. They're coming off of buye. So are
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers. Still winless on the season. Things are
Speaker 1: not going well for the Panthers so far this year.
Speaker 1: Right now, the Houston Texans are three point favorites in
Speaker 1: this game. They are one fifty five on the money line,
Speaker 1: those numbers at Draft Kings. The total is forty one
Speaker 1: and a half. FITZI, I jumped on this one already,
Speaker 1: and I jumped on the Houston side at the minus three.
Speaker 1: I am really liking the culture shift, that change, the
Speaker 1: positivity that's going on there. This is the battle of
Speaker 1: the number one and two quarterback. Take it in the draft.
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are gonna write and
Speaker 1: talk about that this week, But only one of those
Speaker 1: two quarterbacks has looked really comfortable in the NFL so far,
Speaker 1: and that guy is CJ. Stroud. He plays for the Texans.
Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of good vibes around the Texans right now.
Speaker 2: And how far along they seem to be with their rebuild.
Speaker 2: And you know, clearly, I think if the Panthers could
Speaker 2: have a do over on the NFL Draft, they would
Speaker 2: probably choose CJ.
Speaker 3: Stroud and not Bryce Young.
Speaker 2: The Texans have clearly been the better team, but if
Speaker 2: you do look at the Massy Peabody rankings in this
Speaker 2: it says that the Texans are about two and a
Speaker 2: half points better on a neutral field. This game is
Speaker 2: going to be a home game for the Panthers and
Speaker 2: the Texans are favored by three, So that suggests maybe
Speaker 2: there's a little bit of value on the Panthers as
Speaker 2: a home dog here.
Speaker 3: So I don't know if I can buy that.
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Joe, Like, the Texans have been surprisingly
Speaker 2: good this season, but I just don't think there's enough
Speaker 2: value to bet them as a three point dog in Carolina.
Speaker 1: All Right, Look, I understand home dogs are something we
Speaker 1: always look for, but Sam, the Carolina Panthers have had
Speaker 1: real struggles trying to get out of their own way,
Speaker 1: and the Houston Texans, like, the Texans show up there,
Speaker 1: and they've showed up on the road too, which is
Speaker 1: something you know, sometimes these young teams tend to struggle
Speaker 1: with It's one thing to play good at home, good
Speaker 1: football at home. It's another thing to play good football
Speaker 1: on the road. But the Texans have done that. So
Speaker 1: what do you think about this line?
Speaker 4: I'm with you, Joe. I think the Texans minus three
Speaker 4: here is an awesome spot. I two took them this morning.
Speaker 4: The Carolina defenses is not great. They're getting a little
Speaker 4: bit healthier, but the Houston offensive line is getting healthier
Speaker 4: as well. The Houston offense ranks sixth in passing EPA
Speaker 4: for play, fourth and explosive pass rate. I don't think
Speaker 4: Carolina has anyone that's going to be able to slow
Speaker 4: them down. I think Houston has the coaching advantage as well,
Speaker 4: with Demko Ryans making that culture shift like you mentioned,
Speaker 4: and Bobby Slow on offense to you know, putting c. J.
Speaker 4: Stroud in some great opportunities to perform. So I love
Speaker 4: the Texans here. I think with both of them coming
Speaker 4: off the buy, they'll have plenty of tact to bear.
Speaker 4: Houston comes away.
Speaker 5: With the victory.
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Speaker 1: next game. I know this one's gonna hit close to you, guys.
Speaker 1: I also bet this one early. I have had enough
Speaker 1: already of Jordan Love. It's over for me Christian Watson
Speaker 1: coming out with that injury at the end of the game.
Speaker 1: I immediately jumped on Minnesota in this one plus one
Speaker 1: and a half. You can even get this again. That's
Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen off FanDuel. I bet the Minnesota
Speaker 1: Vikings at minus one z two, just outright to win
Speaker 1: this game, because I feel like if they put on
Speaker 1: a decent show tonight, this number might even shift a
Speaker 1: little bit, maybe towards the Minnesota side some more. Forty
Speaker 1: three and a half is the number, so personal aside
Speaker 1: all business here. The Vikings have brought their A game
Speaker 1: to Green Bay of late in the last few years.
Speaker 5: Sam.
Speaker 1: I know they don't have Justin Jefferson, but frankly, right now,
Speaker 1: my faith in Jordan Love and this Packers offense is
Speaker 1: really low. So I like Minni and I like him.
Speaker 1: Right now, what do you think, Sam.
Speaker 5: Joe, you and I are some patiko this morning?
Speaker 4: It seems because I mean, first of all, this is
Speaker 4: the bummer bull. I mean, both of these teams are
Speaker 4: trending in the wrong direction. Green Bay essentially just gets
Speaker 4: home field advantage here. Vegas seemingly makes it that these
Speaker 4: are some even teams on an even field. But I
Speaker 4: think the Vikings offense is the best unit here. Green
Speaker 4: Bay's offense did have one of its better days offensively.
Speaker 4: It was the first time since Week two with a
Speaker 4: positive EPA per play against Denver, but again, they were
Speaker 4: playing one of the worst defenses in the league and
Speaker 4: still only managed seventeen points, and seven of those points
Speaker 4: came off of a tip drill touchdown. So I think
Speaker 4: Minnesota is able to come into Green Bay, much to
Speaker 4: my chagrin, and pull away an upset victory.
Speaker 1: Looking right now, gentlemen, even this morning, right now, on
Speaker 1: bet MGM, you can get the Minnesota Vikings at plus
Speaker 1: money plus one oh five. The worms turning fits. What
Speaker 1: do you say you want to come with me? And Sam?
Speaker 1: Hold hands on the Island together.
Speaker 2: I'm so rattled by this heel turn by Sam Hopp
Speaker 2: and ripping off the mask to reveal purple face paints
Speaker 2: very disheartening.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Vikings. We're gonna see this.
Speaker 2: Line undoubtedly move based on how the Vikings play against
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, But a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 2: in their first game without Justin Jefferson, they did not
Speaker 2: look very good against a suspect Chicago Bears defense like
Speaker 2: that was a pretty alarming performance. So there are two
Speaker 2: offenses here I don't really trust. I mean, it's certainly
Speaker 2: hard to trust the Packers, especially if they're going to
Speaker 2: be without Christian Watson and their rookie tight end Luke Musgrave,
Speaker 2: both of whom left the Broncos game with injuries and
Speaker 2: whose status is probably very much in doubt for this game.
Speaker 2: But I just cannot take the Vikings as in a
Speaker 2: row game unless I'm getting at least a field goal.
Speaker 3: So I'm just it's a stay away for me.
Speaker 2: You know, I'm not going to blindly bet the Packers
Speaker 2: in this one. Yeah, I can't have much faith in
Speaker 2: this team based on what we've seen from this offense.
Speaker 2: Like you said that performance against the terrible Broncos defense
Speaker 2: was most upsetting.
Speaker 1: I'm all in all on the Vikings this in the Texans.
Speaker 1: My two favorite plays that I said already. Bet you
Speaker 1: can follow me at petting pros dot COM's last Joe
Speaker 1: follow Them Slash fits, slash slam. See what those guys
Speaker 1: are in on already. But I'm jumping on this bad
Speaker 1: boy early now. One that it's tough to get a
Speaker 1: beat on here the Battle of New York or New Jersey,
Speaker 1: depending on how you look at it. The New York
Speaker 1: Jets are going to travel to their own building to
Speaker 1: take on the New York Giants, so split home field advantage.
Speaker 1: However you want to look at this, Technically it's a
Speaker 1: Giants home game, so theoretically more Giants fans in the stands,
Speaker 1: you think probably the Giants are three point underdogs in this.
Speaker 1: One thirty six and a half is the number if
Speaker 1: you like the Giants on the money lines plus one
Speaker 1: thirty six on DK that's the best number you can
Speaker 1: get right now. Fits the last two weeks. The Giants
Speaker 1: defense is really woken up. They're getting after the quarterback.
Speaker 1: A bunch of sacks against Sam Howe last week I
Speaker 1: know the Commanders give up a lot of sacks, but
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson also won sometimes to take some sacks to
Speaker 1: you holding the ball too long. He has played better
Speaker 1: of late. This game is a bit of an enigma
Speaker 1: to me. So I'm gonna look at you Fits for
Speaker 1: a little inside because I don't have a beat on
Speaker 1: this one yet. But do you see any early value
Speaker 1: when it comes to Jets Giants?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Interesting, Joe.
Speaker 2: Some of the games that are stay aways for me,
Speaker 2: you feel very strongly about. I feel strongly about this
Speaker 2: game where it's a stay away from you.
Speaker 3: I'll take the Jets here.
Speaker 2: And while the Giants defense has played much better in
Speaker 2: the last few weeks, the Jets defense is clearly the
Speaker 2: best unit in this.
Speaker 3: Game, far and away.
Speaker 2: And I just I don't think the Giants are going
Speaker 2: to have much success moving the ball against this Jets defense.
Speaker 3: And I think with.
Speaker 2: Breist Hall and Garrett Wilson helping out Zach Wilson, I
Speaker 2: think the Jets are going to be able to ratch
Speaker 2: out enough points to cover in this one. I've already
Speaker 2: bet it with the Jets, and I'm kind of interested
Speaker 2: in the under here. This reminds me a little bit
Speaker 2: of my under bet on the Minnesota Golden Gophers Iowa
Speaker 2: Hawkeye's game this Sunday or this Saturday, which went off
Speaker 2: at thirty and a half points. I looked at that
Speaker 2: number and thought, I don't know if these teams are
Speaker 2: getting at twenty and it comfortably finished under I think
Speaker 2: this one might comfortably finish under this very low total.
Speaker 2: This is going to be not the most esthetically pleasing
Speaker 2: game you will ever watch in the NFL, but I
Speaker 2: think the Jets win a low scoring battle here and
Speaker 2: pretty comfortably.
Speaker 1: I agree with you on that one fits. The one
Speaker 1: appealing number to me is the under here, even though
Speaker 1: it's a low number. Sam, can you buy in on
Speaker 1: that or do you have a strong feeling about this
Speaker 1: game one way or another?
Speaker 4: It is hilarious because the first note I have written
Speaker 4: under my bullet points here is this is like Iowa
Speaker 4: Minnesota with these this is super low total. Yeah, the
Speaker 4: Jets defense here is definitely the best unit. The Giants
Speaker 4: are expected to get left tackle Andrew Thomas Beck, which
Speaker 4: should help a little bit. And I think at this
Speaker 4: point i'd probably want Tyrod Taylor to play for the Giants.
Speaker 4: I think he has a little less variability in his
Speaker 4: play than Daniel Jones. The Giants have put up two
Speaker 4: of their best offensive performances from an EPA per play
Speaker 4: perspective in the past two weeks with Tyrod, so it'll
Speaker 4: be interesting to see what happens at the quarterback position
Speaker 4: for the Giants. I've gone a little bit of back
Speaker 4: and forth on this. I think I would take the
Speaker 4: Jets if it's three points or better, but it is
Speaker 4: it is, I think going to be a very very
Speaker 4: close game. I'm probably staying away for right now. But
Speaker 4: the I mean, yeah, nothing really inspires much confidence in
Speaker 4: these offenses. And I mean, when you've got a third
Speaker 4: six favor you can't not bet the under right.
Speaker 1: I feel like, like thirty six and a half, I
Speaker 1: think now is a good time to jump on that
Speaker 1: because I think the more people time to marinate and
Speaker 1: go through these matchups. The defense, like I said, the
Speaker 1: defensive Giants have played very well. Fits mentioned that the
Speaker 1: just defense the best union of all four of these
Speaker 1: on the field, it feels like an under here and
Speaker 1: if this number starts to shrink, then next thing you know,
Speaker 1: it's going to be a tougher one to make New
Speaker 1: England Patriots coming off a big upset of the Buffalo Bills,
Speaker 1: much to my chagrin. I want a high draft pick,
Speaker 1: that's all I want. I want them to not screw
Speaker 1: up taking Marvin Harrison Junior. That's all I want. For Christmas.
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins are gonna host the New England Patriots. The
Speaker 1: Dolphins are ten and a half point favorites in this
Speaker 1: one minus one oh five over on Fandle forty seven
Speaker 1: and a half is the number there as well. For
Speaker 1: New England to upset, it's plus four to ten. Sam.
Speaker 1: I know the Patriots, you know, shocked a lot of
Speaker 1: people yesterday. I want to say that Buffalo is four
Speaker 1: minus four hundred. I think favorites in this one very
Speaker 1: heavily favorite. Let's just put it to that New England
Speaker 1: goes here as an underdog as they should be here.
Speaker 1: Miami kind of have some calls go their way last night,
Speaker 1: but also didn't make enough plays at the end of
Speaker 1: the day. So what are your thoughts on Miami New England?
Speaker 1: Is this number two big?
Speaker 5: I think it is a little too big.
Speaker 4: I made this Miami by seven and a half, and
Speaker 4: obviously at minus ten that would indicate that I'm on
Speaker 4: the New England side of things. When these teams met
Speaker 4: in Week two, Miami won by a touchdown. They were
Speaker 4: only favored by a point and a half, but this
Speaker 4: was obviously before their massive offensive explosion against the Broncos.
Speaker 4: I do think that this the under here is probably
Speaker 4: my strongest lean. New England's defense, I still think is
Speaker 4: pretty good and that they have a chance to contain
Speaker 4: the Miami offense like they did in Week two. Miami's
Speaker 4: two losses this year have come to the Bills and
Speaker 4: the Eagles, who are two of the better teams in
Speaker 4: the league, and they pretty much handled their business against
Speaker 4: their weaker opponents. So I'm staying away from this right now.
Speaker 4: Aside from the under, I think this is going to
Speaker 4: be a game in which both teams might struggle to
Speaker 4: put up some points.
Speaker 1: I feel like Pat the danger in this game is
Speaker 1: trying to take anything out of that first matchup. The
Speaker 1: first matchup was closer than I think that some people realize,
Speaker 1: so I think that's going to have almost too much
Speaker 1: of an impact on people's thoughts. It's creeping into your
Speaker 1: psyche too, when you're looking at this line.
Speaker 2: Yeah, a little bit Joe like I'm not going to
Speaker 2: touch this game. We didn't think the Patriots could beat
Speaker 2: the Bills outright, and yet they did.
Speaker 1: So.
Speaker 2: Yes, Miami could certainly stop the gas pedal on this
Speaker 2: one and beat the Patriots by three or four touchdowns,
Speaker 2: like if they have it hitting on all cylinders offensively.
Speaker 2: But man, I'm just not interested in laying double digit
Speaker 2: points to Bill Belichick team, And like I don't want
Speaker 2: to give Bill Belichick too much credit. The Patriots have
Speaker 2: been pretty bad for the most part this year, but
Speaker 2: nor am I in interested in in betting the Patriots
Speaker 2: against these Dolphins. So this is just one I'm happy
Speaker 2: to walk away from.
Speaker 1: Fair enough, that makes a lot of sense. I think
Speaker 1: this from an individual standpoint, a player prop standpoint, a
Speaker 1: far more interesting game to wager on than the game itself. However,
Speaker 1: the next one, this should be interesting. The Tennessee Titans
Speaker 1: coming off of bye. Most likely, I would say that
Speaker 1: we're gonna have Malik Willis playing quarterback here. Now this
Speaker 1: number starts out at thirty seven. I'm in on the
Speaker 1: under here as Atlanta comes to town. I know Atlanta's
Speaker 1: four and three, but they've struggled on offense lately. Desmond
Speaker 1: Ritter has had his issues here be Jhon Robinson clearly
Speaker 1: had issues enough that he couldn't even get on the field.
Speaker 1: The Falcons are minus one point favorites at minus one
Speaker 1: ten over on DK. If you like Tennessee for the
Speaker 1: upset at home, it's plus one oh five over at
Speaker 1: points bet fits. Again, this one reeks of under to me,
Speaker 1: and I really it's kind of a tough sell for
Speaker 1: me to get off of that right now. And I'm
Speaker 1: also concerned that if I don't jump on this number early,
Speaker 1: it's going to also shrink on me. What do you think?
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Joe, another game where the total is
Speaker 2: very low but the under is crying out because Yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, like with Ryan Tannehill, this would be different.
Speaker 2: I think we'd see another point or two added to
Speaker 2: the total and another point.
Speaker 3: Or two added to the Titans.
Speaker 2: I think the Titans would probably be one or two
Speaker 2: point favorites in this game if Ryan Tannehill were playing.
Speaker 2: I understand why the Falcons are favored. Like Malik Willis
Speaker 2: and the Titans offense could have a lot of trouble
Speaker 2: moving the ball against a really underrated Falcons defense, and
Speaker 2: the Falcons has been. These are two terrific run defenses
Speaker 2: in this game and two offenses that want to run
Speaker 2: the ball. So like, I see this as being a
Speaker 2: very sluggishly paced game, Joe, another one where I don't
Speaker 2: know if we're going to get to thirty points, let
Speaker 2: alone what thirty seven and a half or whatever it's
Speaker 2: at right now?
Speaker 1: With you on the under I am there, Sam, you
Speaker 1: want to come hang out with us here? This feels
Speaker 1: like thirteen to ten to me? What do you think.
Speaker 4: It very well could be? I mean, if we are
Speaker 4: going to get Malik Willis, he has struggled in every
Speaker 4: game that's he's played so far. I do like the
Speaker 4: Falcon side of this. Their defense has been pretty pretty
Speaker 4: good so far. Their eighth in passing success rate six
Speaker 4: excuse me seventh and explosive pass rate first in rushing
Speaker 4: EPA per play, so they've been able to hold their
Speaker 4: opponents pretty well. And I do think, you know, though
Speaker 4: Desmond Ritter has not been phenomenal this year, he's going
Speaker 4: to be better than whoever Tennessee trots out a quarterback,
Speaker 4: assuming it's not Ryan Tannehill. So I'm I lean stronger
Speaker 4: on the Falcon side of this than the under. But
Speaker 4: again to you guys point, the Titans are second slowest
Speaker 4: in the league in terms of neutral script and third
Speaker 4: worst in no auto rates, So there's not going to
Speaker 4: be a lot of offense in this game, as the
Speaker 4: under suggests.
Speaker 5: But like the Falcons in the spot.
Speaker 1: The last time the Washington Commanders went to Philadelphia to play,
Speaker 1: the Eagles got a lot closer than I think any
Speaker 1: of us really expected it to be. Again another danger
Speaker 1: I think of trying to copy and paste what happened
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago into what could happen in Week eight.
Speaker 1: Washington is six and a half point underdogs at home
Speaker 1: at Mice won ten. Always intriguing, but again they're giving
Speaker 1: up so many sacks here, averaging over three and a
Speaker 1: half per game. Sam, that's a lot, and especially with
Speaker 1: the young quarterback who sometimes tried to do too much,
Speaker 1: and there should have been some more picks for Sam
Speaker 1: how yesterday in that game against the Giants that he
Speaker 1: barely got away with. Forty four is the number four
Speaker 1: this one on the under, forty three and a half
Speaker 1: on DK and if you like Washington for the upsets
Speaker 1: plus two thirty on the money line. The Eagles went
Speaker 1: out there, handled their business against an incredible offense last
Speaker 1: night Miami. I think this was a good confidence builder
Speaker 1: for the Eagles who have been scuffling a little bit.
Speaker 1: Does that confidence travel to Washington and do they cover
Speaker 1: the six and a half? Sam?
Speaker 5: I think it does.
Speaker 4: The way that Sam Howell is taking sacks is just
Speaker 4: it's not sustainable for having that offense. I mean, I
Speaker 4: know you mentioned that the Giants defense has been playing better,
Speaker 4: but man, they only got seven points against them and
Speaker 4: just could not move the ball. They're they're taking sacks
Speaker 4: that are are drive killers, and I think Philadelphia again
Speaker 4: has started to show what they really can't do offensively.
Speaker 4: The Washington defense is by no means as good as
Speaker 4: we expected them coming into the season. They're currently twenty
Speaker 4: seventh in EPA per played aloud, twenty eighth in early
Speaker 4: down EPA per played allowed. So I think Philadelphia goes
Speaker 4: into Washington, handles their business and covers this six and
Speaker 4: a half.
Speaker 1: All right, Pat, thoughts on this one? Two? Are you
Speaker 1: so confident in the Eagles? Maybe you want to go
Speaker 1: past the six and a half. Do you want to
Speaker 1: go ahead and just look for some defensive props here
Speaker 1: on some sacks because I know Bodmin and I are
Speaker 1: going to be on that this week for sure. Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, you've got the team that chased the NFL
Speaker 2: single season sack record last year, going up against a
Speaker 2: quarterback who has been sacked forty times already.
Speaker 1: He has Son Reddick, I can handle Pat.
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, where is it?
Speaker 2: Justin Fields was the most sacked NFL quarterback of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty two with fifty five sacks. I mean, Sam Howll
Speaker 2: is just fifteen behind that. We're not even in the
Speaker 2: midway point of the.
Speaker 1: Season yet that's suppressing.
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness.
Speaker 2: So yeah, the Commanders did manage to take the Eagles
Speaker 2: to overtime in Week four before losing thirty four to
Speaker 2: thirty one.
Speaker 3: And Howell played probably his best game in that game.
Speaker 2: Like he was really good in the second half in
Speaker 2: the comeback against the Broncos, but not so great in
Speaker 2: the first half of that game. He played a pretty
Speaker 2: complete game against the Eagles. I don't think he's going
Speaker 2: to be able to do it again. Like, and I
Speaker 2: want to grab this while it's still under a touchdown.
Speaker 3: Yeah, give me the Eagles here.
Speaker 1: The New Orleans Saints with a little extra time after
Speaker 1: playing on Thursday night, they made it close, but they
Speaker 1: fell short, unfortunately, at every opportunity to win that game.
Speaker 1: Sort of the Colts this weekend, who came up short
Speaker 1: as well. Some might say the referee screwed them out
Speaker 1: on a ball that was probably unketchable, and they'd be
Speaker 1: right in my opinion. The Colts are one point favorites
Speaker 1: at homes, so basically this is a pick him at
Speaker 1: this point. Forty three and a half is the number
Speaker 1: on DraftKings plus one h two over on DK for
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints' side. The best value on this
Speaker 1: board right now is the Saints at that plus number.
Speaker 1: But Fitz, this is another one too where this reeks
Speaker 1: of range of outcomes and there could be easily four
Speaker 1: of them where one side blows the other out, or
Speaker 1: it's a very high scoring affair, were very underwhelming affair.
Speaker 1: These are the kind of games that scare the hell
Speaker 1: out of me because they're hard to invest in. So
Speaker 1: I would just look for the specific player props in
Speaker 1: this one, I'd stay away from the lines. But do
Speaker 1: you see something differently here?
Speaker 2: I could not agree more with your assessment of that, Joe,
Speaker 2: And if you took all the thirty two NFL teams.
Speaker 3: I think the two that I have bet.
Speaker 2: Least successfully this year so far would be the Colts
Speaker 2: and the Saints, so I'm delighted they're playing each other.
Speaker 2: I can just completely ignore this game from a betting
Speaker 2: perspective and focus on the other fifteen games on the slate.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll pass. Maybe Sam's got a strong take
Speaker 2: on this one. I'd love to hear it. I'm i
Speaker 2: way to touch this game.
Speaker 1: I'm waiting with baited breath. Sam, do you have anything
Speaker 1: fun here that might crack us out of our duldrums
Speaker 1: when it comes to these two teams because I'm with
Speaker 1: fits on a weekly basis. I stare at the Saints.
Speaker 1: I stare at the Colts, especially the Colts without Anthony Richardson.
Speaker 1: I find it much harder to gauge that because that
Speaker 1: explosiveness is gone now. I mean, maybe Jonathan Taylor brings
Speaker 1: a part of it back, but Richardson brought that explosiveness
Speaker 1: where I always felt like, ooh, the overs really tempting
Speaker 1: here because he makes those big plays and all of
Speaker 1: a sudden puts you in positions those third and longs,
Speaker 1: the third and fifteen becomes a first down. That stuff
Speaker 1: doesn't happen necessarily with Gardner Minshew, So what do you
Speaker 1: about this contest?
Speaker 4: This is a really fascinating one, and I think to
Speaker 4: your point, Joe, the range of outcomes on this one
Speaker 4: is incredibly wide, and I think for that reason, I'd
Speaker 4: be looking to take one of these teams on an
Speaker 4: alternate spread. You know, mine is five and a half,
Speaker 4: my six and a half type thing to capture one
Speaker 4: of those tail outcomes, because I think the Colts probably
Speaker 4: have the much wider range of outcomes where they could
Speaker 4: either play tremendously well like they did against a Browns
Speaker 4: defense that was playing at historic levels. Obviously that they
Speaker 4: didn't come away with the win there, but their offense
Speaker 4: showed up and could do the same thing to the
Speaker 4: Saints defense that has played pretty well this year.
Speaker 5: But it's also Gardner.
Speaker 4: Minshew like, I'm not going to trust it based off
Speaker 4: of one game. I think the Colts have the biggest
Speaker 4: advantage from a coaching perspective. I think Shane Stikeen has
Speaker 4: done phenomenal this year with his decision making and play calling,
Speaker 4: but the SAME's defense is still really good, so I
Speaker 4: don't have an early lean on this game right now,
Speaker 4: I'd be looking at again what I said that some
Speaker 4: of the alt spreads probably on the cult side of things.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can understand that, and that approach is the
Speaker 1: best way to make money off this game. Sam is
Speaker 1: one hundred percent right. Let's see if we can make
Speaker 1: some money on the next one.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 1: The Jacksonville Jaguars coming off a big Thursday Night football victory.
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence despite that knee injury, Sam, he looks real
Speaker 1: good running the football all round, so he's got a
Speaker 1: little extra time arrest, which is a big thing here.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh coming off a big win of their own going
Speaker 1: into LA. They brought all of their fan base with
Speaker 1: them to man at that feel like a home game
Speaker 1: in Los Angeles for the Steelers. Forty two is the
Speaker 1: number for this one. Pittsburgh is two and a half
Speaker 1: point underdogs at home minus one ten plus one eighteen
Speaker 1: over on FanDuel. Sam. We started this season off one
Speaker 1: of my favorite beats in Week one was Pittsburgh home dog,
Speaker 1: and I was all in and for them to cover
Speaker 1: that number. They did not. They got their doors blown off.
Speaker 1: Is it time that we can start feeling comfortable again
Speaker 1: with going and attacking the Pittsburgh Steelers as home underdogs
Speaker 1: being a very dangerous thing, and maybe go right to
Speaker 1: the money line at plus one eighteen on this. I
Speaker 1: want to say yes. I feel like you want to
Speaker 1: say yes too. Say yes, Sam, I don't.
Speaker 4: Know what Mike Tomlin does in his spare time that
Speaker 4: he's got this Pittsburgh Steelers team where it is right now.
Speaker 4: I mean like they are winning games that nobody's expecting
Speaker 4: them to win the game against Baltimore, the game this
Speaker 4: past weekend, and I really like the Jaguars here. Pittsburgh
Speaker 4: I think is a team similar to New Orleans, where
Speaker 4: they get success from their defense, but the offense sputter
Speaker 4: is quite a bit. To your point, Jacksonville is going
Speaker 4: to get ten days of rest. Trevor Lawrence looks really good,
Speaker 4: especially running the ball, despite going into that Thursday night
Speaker 4: game against the Saints with that knee injury. So I
Speaker 4: think that Jacksonville is going to be able to handle
Speaker 4: their business here and Mike Tomlin's voodoo magic will wear off.
Speaker 5: For this one.
Speaker 1: Look, it's very sensible of you, Sam. I guess I'm
Speaker 1: betting here a little bit more with my heart than
Speaker 1: my head, which probably is going to get me in trouble.
Speaker 1: But fits they have one two huge, get found a
Speaker 1: way to win, and sometimes that starts to build a
Speaker 1: little confidence. They do get after the quarterback too, that's
Speaker 1: a good thing.
Speaker 5: I know.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of deficits here when you look at
Speaker 1: the numbers for the Pittsburgh Steelers this year on defense,
Speaker 1: it's something we're not used to seeing. But let's not
Speaker 1: pretend like Jacksonville is perfect either on their defensive side
Speaker 1: of the football. So how do you see this game?
Speaker 1: Do you see the same value I do on Pittsburgh early?
Speaker 2: I do, Joe, And of course Sam is the hardcore
Speaker 2: numbers guy, so he's got to go where the numbers
Speaker 2: lead him. And the numbers will tell you that the
Speaker 2: Steelers have no business watching ever being four and two
Speaker 2: right now because they have not been a good team
Speaker 2: this year. And meanwhile, the Jaguars have won four straight.
Speaker 2: They've averaged twenty nine points a game during that stretch.
Speaker 2: But Joe, you asked me yesterday who I thought was
Speaker 2: gonna win the AFC North, and I told you the Steelers,
Speaker 2: and you like laughed, and I said, like, I mean,
Speaker 2: I have immense faith in Mike Tomlin, maybe way too
Speaker 2: much faith, Like I feel like eventually the Steelers are
Speaker 2: going to start playing better, especially on defense, because I
Speaker 2: think they have the personnel to be a lot better
Speaker 2: on defense.
Speaker 3: And I'm going to take the Steelers as a.
Speaker 2: Home dog, and I'm gonna hit them on the money line, Joe,
Speaker 2: as you recommended against a team that is an upstart
Speaker 2: in the AFC Up and coming for certain, but I
Speaker 2: don't think they are yet ready to be one of
Speaker 2: the elite teams of the AFC. Like I wouldn't even
Speaker 2: feel great about taking the Chiefs as a two and
Speaker 2: a half point road favorite in Pittsburgh, So why do
Speaker 2: I want to take the Jaguars at that number? So yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, I just like I can't back Jacksonville here.
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the money line with the Steelers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too. I will say this. I did laugh
Speaker 1: in the morning, but after watching that game, I saw
Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett changing plays at goal line. I saw him
Speaker 1: starting to look more comfortable taking a little bit more
Speaker 1: charge being a quarterback basically, which is something you really
Speaker 1: didn't see in the first month of the season. It
Speaker 1: just did not look like it was in a good
Speaker 1: place and that's very encouraging, and that AFC North is
Speaker 1: wide open. We're gonna talk about those teams kind of
Speaker 1: in a row here as we go before we get
Speaker 1: to them, though a few in between. The Cleveland Browns. Actually,
Speaker 1: no Cleveland Brown is going to write to him. I
Speaker 1: forgot Cleveland Brown's Seattle cleveand Brown's coming off a huge win.
Speaker 1: Seattle eaked one out against the lesser opponent that really
Speaker 1: they let hang around way too much in that game.
Speaker 1: Forty and a half is the number for this one.
Speaker 1: Seattle is two and a half point favorites at home
Speaker 1: against Cleveland defense. Does travel pat the Cleveland Browns are
Speaker 1: plus one thirty? Do we see PJ Walker in this game?
Speaker 1: Or we backed into shann w So much intrigue going
Speaker 1: on with the Cleveland Browns at Miles Garrett, who has
Speaker 1: just been playing out of his mind so far in
Speaker 1: the last few weeks. What are your thoughts on this
Speaker 1: one here? Because this is also a matter of if
Speaker 1: you believe enough in that Cleveland defense, then I think
Speaker 1: that plus one thirty is a tremendous value right here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm guessing we do see Deshaun Watson in this one, Joe,
Speaker 2: since he was cleared to play and return, but they
Speaker 2: held him out. Kevin Stefanski didn't want to take any chances.
Speaker 2: So this is a really interesting, fun, fascinating matchup between
Speaker 2: two teams that I think are playoff caliber but maybe.
Speaker 3: Not Super Bowl caliber.
Speaker 2: And I looked at this one pretty hard at this morning,
Speaker 2: trying to find value on either the side, like a
Speaker 2: side or a total. Just couldn't do it. I think
Speaker 2: these the line and the total are both spot on.
Speaker 3: So I'm not going to touch this one.
Speaker 1: Sam, I'm going right for the Cleveland Browns. I'm going
Speaker 1: right for that. I just something about the Seahawks. I
Speaker 1: just don't buy into any toughness there. I don't think
Speaker 1: that home field advantage is the same thing it was
Speaker 1: a few years ago. I think that's kind of that
Speaker 1: ship has sailed a little bit as well on them.
Speaker 1: What do you think about this game or are you
Speaker 1: seeing it differently?
Speaker 5: Yeah, Joe, we are no longer some pazzi coo.
Speaker 1: We had a good run, Sam, we had a good run.
Speaker 4: I'm with the Seahawks here. Their defense continues to play
Speaker 4: incredibly well. They haven't allowed to success rate over forty
Speaker 4: six percent in each of their last four games. Now
Speaker 4: you can look at the quality of the opponents that
Speaker 4: they're playing.
Speaker 1: Glad you're waging that. That's what I want to talk about.
Speaker 1: Uh huh.
Speaker 4: What about the Browns offense inspires you to think that
Speaker 4: they're any better than those those teams that they played.
Speaker 4: They they're one of the worst offenses in the league
Speaker 4: despite you know, regardless of who's at quarterback, and clearly
Speaker 4: there's something weird going on with us, this whole Deshaun
Speaker 4: Watson situation. You know, they were in this competitive game
Speaker 4: and they were trying to play the long game for
Speaker 4: Watson's health, but they didn't put him in. So it's
Speaker 4: just a really weird situation.
Speaker 5: I think.
Speaker 4: I think the Seahawks will get dk Metcalf back in
Speaker 4: this game as well. So I think while the Seahawks
Speaker 4: are on the better side of the three points, I'm
Speaker 4: taking them in this game.
Speaker 1: All right. I'm standing alone here with my Cleveland Browns.
Speaker 1: They keep finding ways to win. And that's again, defense
Speaker 1: travels at the end of the day. I think that's
Speaker 1: a look for not in You're right, Seattle's defense, I've
Speaker 1: played well, it's just It's hard for me to believe
Speaker 1: in them and the opponents they've played. You know, when
Speaker 1: you go beat the forty nine ers offense with your defense,
Speaker 1: then I'm that perks my interest. Kansas City, man, they
Speaker 1: looked pretty good. They put up a ton of points.
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey, Patrick Mahomes looked unstoppable. Seven and a half
Speaker 1: point road favorites going into Denver. That's the best number
Speaker 1: you get right now. Forty five and a half is
Speaker 1: the number for this game, plus three ten for the
Speaker 1: Broncos on the money line. You could let that one go, folks.
Speaker 1: The question is I mean, I'm looking at this, Sam,
Speaker 1: I feel like the seven and a half just isn't enough.
Speaker 1: I mean, what am I not seeing here when it
Speaker 1: comes to Kansas City and Denver?
Speaker 4: I have no idea. I'm back with you again. I
Speaker 4: made Kansas City ten point favorites, and the Chiefs were
Speaker 4: ten and a half point favorites when they played just
Speaker 4: two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. But now they're
Speaker 4: on the road. They did win by eleven, so they
Speaker 4: barely covered that spread. But it's basically using the same
Speaker 4: line as that game and switching the one and a
Speaker 4: half points for home field advantage over to the Broncos.
Speaker 4: But the Chiefs defense continues to play incredibly. They haven't
Speaker 4: allowed more than twenty one points in a game this season.
Speaker 4: The Chiefs offense did spun it a little bit in
Speaker 4: that second half against.
Speaker 5: The Chargers, and I don't know.
Speaker 4: I think the Chiefs are the best team in the
Speaker 4: NFL right now. Their offense is not at its full potential,
Speaker 4: but man, I just think they're waiting for that game
Speaker 4: to explode and this is going to be the one.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, Denver's one of the worst past defenses
Speaker 1: in the league. Mahomes look really comfortable last this best
Speaker 1: Sunday throwing the football again to Travis Kelcey all day long.
Speaker 1: I get a little me Cole Harbin back now, which
Speaker 1: is pretty fun. But I don't know, Pat, I'm looking
Speaker 1: at this and I expect it in my mind double digits,
Speaker 1: Like I'm thinking ten and a half and at seven
Speaker 1: and a half, and I just want to lock that
Speaker 1: in now because I'm worried that more time goes on,
Speaker 1: this is going to continue to grow. Do you have
Speaker 1: that same concern.
Speaker 2: I bet the Chiefs already, Joe, it is going to grow.
Speaker 2: I think we will get like this maybe is a
Speaker 2: chance to get to double digits. I wouldn't be surprised
Speaker 2: to see it finishing, closing it like Chiefs minus nine
Speaker 2: and a half or so. Look, the Chiefs have beaten
Speaker 2: the Broncos in sixteen straight games. This goes back to
Speaker 2: before the start of Patrick Mahomes career twenty fifteen. Like
Speaker 2: the Broncos in this rivalry are like Sisyphis trying to
Speaker 2: push the boulder up the hill, like they just can't
Speaker 2: do it. It just keeps rolling back down over them.
Speaker 2: So yeah, give me the Chiefs all day here.
Speaker 1: I love a good Sisyphis reference this early in the morning.
Speaker 1: It's my favorite thing. Next one here, the Baltimore Ravens
Speaker 1: just an absolute butt kicking. They laid on the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 1: Detroit was flying high. They got checked. They got checked
Speaker 1: hard too. Eight and a half is the number for this.
Speaker 1: When Baltimore Ravens our favorites against Arizona, that feels again
Speaker 1: also kind of like a small number. I know the
Speaker 1: Ravens have been frustrating Pat sometimes. Forty four is the
Speaker 1: over under Arizona for the upset plus three thirty. But
Speaker 1: I keep coming back at minus one ten at eight
Speaker 1: and a half, I'm pretty comfortable with that number, especially
Speaker 1: if this is the new Ravens that we're going to see.
Speaker 1: Where they are. You know, Lamar is running the football
Speaker 1: over the place being Lamar again. You're seeing Odell healthy
Speaker 1: on the field. You're seeing Andrews look like Andrews A.
Speaker 1: Flowers has been really good, and look some of the
Speaker 1: running backs like Gus Edwards made a big play there.
Speaker 1: If they can get that to travel and Arizona, goodness
Speaker 1: knows that offensive line is bad. What do you think
Speaker 1: you think this eight and a half is a gimme?
Speaker 2: I two have bet the Ravens early, Joe and I
Speaker 2: didn't feel as good betting the Ravens as I did
Speaker 2: betting the Chiefs. For me, it is less about my
Speaker 2: confidence in the Ravens repeating the sort of performance they
Speaker 2: had against the Lions than it is in betting against
Speaker 2: the Cardinals, who I think have after the plucky start
Speaker 2: the first three weeks of the season kind of reverted
Speaker 2: to what we thought they were going to be, which
Speaker 2: is basically the biggest doormat in the NFL. That was
Speaker 2: our expectation for them before the start of the season,
Speaker 2: Cardinals have lost four straight games by double digits, failed
Speaker 2: to cover in all four of those games. Yeah, and
Speaker 2: the Ravens are just humming right now. So even I
Speaker 2: think if the Ravens offense were to have some hiccups
Speaker 2: in this game, they could still cover the number pretty
Speaker 2: easily because I don't see the Cardinals doing much business
Speaker 2: against the Baltimore defense.
Speaker 1: Okay, Sam, your thoughts on this one. Baltimore had a
Speaker 1: really strong showing. Am I overrating what I saw Sunday
Speaker 1: too much?
Speaker 4: I don't think so. I mean, the Lions were a
Speaker 4: great team, and they blew the doors off them offensively.
Speaker 4: They shut the offense of the Lions down, and so
Speaker 4: I think Baltimore is easily going to go into Arizona
Speaker 4: and cover this spread. I mean, they're getting healthier on offense,
Speaker 4: they have their full set of receivers now that I
Speaker 4: don't think they're quite as talented as they were hoping
Speaker 4: to going into the season. But as this offense starts
Speaker 4: to click, and I think we saw, you know, sort
Speaker 4: of the first iteration of that Lamar played at an
Speaker 4: MVP level like we've seen him play in the past,
Speaker 4: and I don't think this Cardinals defense is going to
Speaker 4: be able to slow them down whatsoever.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think the offensive line is gonna slow
Speaker 1: down anybody either. Let me tell you they are a joke.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati at San Fran. We'll see what San Fran does tonight.
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey is slated to play in that Monday night game.
Speaker 1: Don't forget you could always check us out Monday nights,
Speaker 1: so we're always doing five pm Eastern bop and I
Speaker 1: going through the best bets for Monday Night football and
Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football Thursdays at five pm Eastern.
Speaker 5: Two.
Speaker 1: You got the San Francisco minus five and a half.
Speaker 1: That feels about right to me. Minus one ten on
Speaker 1: DK forty five and a half is the number the
Speaker 1: Bengals had that buy, hopefully a little even healthier for
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow plus two ten and for t Higgins two
Speaker 1: plus two ten for the Bengals here for the upset,
Speaker 1: I don't think the upset is not in play here, Sam.
Speaker 1: I know the forty nine ers on paper are that
Speaker 1: better team, but it's not always the best team that wins.
Speaker 1: The team to plays the best. So what are your
Speaker 1: thoughts here as San Francisco coming off that loss. I
Speaker 1: know we have to see what they bring tonight against Minnesota,
Speaker 1: but is there any early value before that game happens.
Speaker 4: I don't think so. I honestly have no lean here
Speaker 4: right now. I think this number is spot on. Had
Speaker 4: San Francisco's five and a half point favorite, so I
Speaker 4: think it's about in line what I was expecting. I mean,
Speaker 4: if you do like Cincy, I don't think this is
Speaker 4: a bad spot because San Francisco will be playing on
Speaker 4: a short week with Cincinnati coming off of thereby, But
Speaker 4: I'm guessing that's baked into the line a little bit.
Speaker 4: I'm guessing if they both have equal rest, then San
Speaker 4: Francisco is maybe six six and a half point favorites.
Speaker 4: So this is going to be a fascinating game. I'm
Speaker 4: looking forward to watching this one, but I don't have
Speaker 4: any early leans right now.
Speaker 1: Pat any early leans in San Franz Cincy.
Speaker 3: No, not really. In Sam's take was pretty much spot on.
Speaker 2: First I saw this line, I thought it should be
Speaker 2: six or six and a half, but then I realized, yeah,
Speaker 2: Bengals coming off the bye, forty nine ers going into
Speaker 2: this game with short rest, and I guess I'm also
Speaker 2: feeling a little bit more confident in Joe Burrow's health
Speaker 2: now that he's made it through six games with that
Speaker 2: wounded calf and coming off a bye, so he could
Speaker 2: be pretty close to one hundred percent for this game. No,
Speaker 2: no leaning either way here, I think the line's pretty
Speaker 2: spot on.
Speaker 1: Bears go to Los Angeles to face the Chargers. Chargers
Speaker 1: are eight and a half point favorites minus one to
Speaker 1: ten on DK forty six and a half is the
Speaker 1: number one FanDuel plus three point fifty on the money
Speaker 1: line for the Bears. Pat Look, the Bears looked really
Speaker 1: good at home against a bad opponent, but at least
Speaker 1: they dominated a bad opponent. You don't know if we'renna
Speaker 1: get justin fields or not in this game. Do you
Speaker 1: see anything here with Chicago LA that's intriguing to you?
Speaker 2: Yeah, As our colleague Andrew Ericksson asked in a Slack
Speaker 2: conversation earlier this morning, should the Chargers be favored by
Speaker 2: eight and a half points out of anyone in the NFL?
Speaker 2: You know, especially against the Bears, who have staged some
Speaker 2: unexpected uprisings this season. They beat the Washington Commanders and
Speaker 2: the Las Vegas Raiders very handily, and they just demolished
Speaker 2: the Raiders with an undrafted rookie free agent making his
Speaker 2: first NFL start at quarterback, so man, Nonetheless, I'm still
Speaker 2: pretty reluctant to bet the Bears with an undrafted rookie
Speaker 2: free agent quarterback. So I'm probably just gonna lay off
Speaker 2: and I might take the under here since the Bears
Speaker 2: defense has been surprisingly respectable lately, Like I don't think
Speaker 2: that run defense is terrible, and we saw them sort
Speaker 2: of bottle up Josh Jacobs just this past Sunday, So
Speaker 2: this might be a little too tall of a total,
Speaker 2: but I don't really want to bet either side here.
Speaker 1: Sam Juranieri came on the show a couple weeks ago
Speaker 1: and told us, no matter what, always bet the Chargers
Speaker 1: in their favorites, especially in that first half, and then
Speaker 1: immediately in the second half, bet against them, and that
Speaker 1: has been a pretty good practice. Is that the path
Speaker 1: of least resistance here with this contest too, because I'm
Speaker 1: with Pat. This just feels like a lot of respect
Speaker 1: for the Chargers probably.
Speaker 4: I mean, I think if this stays at eight eight
Speaker 4: and a half, teasing the Chargers down to two and
Speaker 4: a half, is one of my favorite ways to play
Speaker 4: this game. Chicago's had a positive EPA per play in
Speaker 4: three of their last four games. They've had a positive
Speaker 4: rushing EPA per play in their last three games and
Speaker 4: four of their last five.
Speaker 5: But the Chargers rushing defense might be improving a little bit.
Speaker 4: They've had a rushing success rate allowed below thirty percent
Speaker 4: in each of the last two weeks against Dallas and
Speaker 4: Kansas City.
Speaker 5: Now, either of.
Speaker 4: Those teams are particularly spectacular in the rushing department, but
Speaker 4: it is good to see that that defense improving.
Speaker 5: A little bit.
Speaker 4: So I think I just want to stick with the
Speaker 4: Chargers as a potential teaser, like for.
Speaker 1: Right now, last one here Monday Night Football, talk about
Speaker 1: get right games. The Detroit Lions minus seven and a
Speaker 1: half at minus one ten on Fandel, we'll take on
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders also having QB problems
Speaker 1: of their own. Forty five is the number on Caesars,
Speaker 1: forty four and a half on DK, plus three hundred
Speaker 1: on the mL for Vegas. Sam. Does Detroit get back
Speaker 1: on track here and hand the Vegas Raiders their lunch?
Speaker 5: I think so.
Speaker 4: The Lions, I don't think are nearly as bad as
Speaker 4: their performance. Sunday indicates the Ravens had twenty eight points
Speaker 4: before the Lions.
Speaker 5: Had their first first down of the game.
Speaker 4: And to what we were just talking about, the Raiders
Speaker 4: just got the doors blown off with them by Tyler Bage.
Speaker 4: So I think the Raider the Lions are going to
Speaker 4: easily be able to go back home in prime time,
Speaker 4: show up with everything, and take care of their business.
Speaker 1: See he's such a backup. He even called him Tyler,
Speaker 1: not Tyson. That's how little respect Sam Hoppin has for Beige. Whoops.
Speaker 1: Oh no, Fitzy, let's close it out strong. Here your
Speaker 1: thoughts on this last contest? Here is Detroit Lions. This
Speaker 1: is look, we all expect the Lions to win, but
Speaker 1: is a bigger number here? Any concern? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I never need to find much of an excuse to
Speaker 2: bet against the Josh McDaniel Raiders, And with the Lions
Speaker 2: coming off this bad loss, I think they're going to
Speaker 2: be breathing fire for this game.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm taking the Lions.
Speaker 1: And laying the points as they should be breathing fire.
Speaker 1: Don't forget make sure you get those line alerts on
Speaker 1: the VP app. Use that game notifications tool so you
Speaker 1: can set it and watch them these lines as they move.
Speaker 1: We've talked about a lot of them today that might
Speaker 1: make some changes obviously in the days ahead. You should
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Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the
Speaker 1: game goes on for fits and Sam. I'm Joey P.
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