WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 8 NFL Game (Ep. 368) 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:03.160 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.200 --> 0:00:05.680 your bets. This meet Joey P joe P Zapia and 0:00:05.760 --> 0:00:08.520 it's time to look ahead to week eight in the NFL. 0:00:08.560 --> 0:00:10.680 See if there's some early values on the lines. By 0:00:10.680 --> 0:00:14.520 Apocalypse is past us and everybody's playing this week. We've 0:00:14.520 --> 0:00:17.080 got a full slate of games. Should be good times. 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.160 It's always good times with Sam Hoppin and Pat fitz 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:21.560 Morris join me here on the show. Gentlemen, let's just 0:00:21.600 --> 0:00:23.279 jump right into it because we've got a ton of 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:26.920 games to go through today. And don't forget everybody. If 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:28.800 you want a chance to win that Robert Tunyan jersey, 0:00:28.880 --> 0:00:31.680 make sure you drop a comment below, make sure you 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:34.479 subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, and that's all 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:36.560 you got to do to win again. We're always giving 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:39.280 away free stuff here. We love you people, So go 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:41.880 win this jersey. Go give it to Pat fitz Morris. 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:44.040 I'm telling you, Christmas present such a beautiful thing. I'll 0:00:44.040 --> 0:00:46.239 pay for the shipping myself. I will do it. And 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:48.280 don't forget to click that little beltile coos ding for 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:50.560 notification so you know if you are the big winner 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:53.280 as well. We gotta start with Thursday night football. Short 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:56.040 week here underway for the Buffalo Bills, which is a 0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:57.520 good thing. They don't have time to dwell on the 0:00:57.560 --> 0:01:00.320 loss to the New England Patriots. Yeah, that's right, said 0:01:00.320 --> 0:01:03.360 it a lost to the New England Patriots. The number 0:01:03.360 --> 0:01:05.560 for this game is forty two and a half. So far, 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:08.240 it looks like Buffalo is seven point favorites, no doubt 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:10.360 they're that number. You can get a dk the over 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:12.640 under right now at FanDuel if you like Tampa for 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.240 the upset. It's plus three fifteen on the money line. Pat, 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:17.840 let's start with you with this one. Does Buffalo just 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:19.880 kind of put their head down, get back to work 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:22.280 and beat up on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that, 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:25.920 like frankly, watching Baker Mayfield throw completely into double coverage 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:28.839 all day long, it's a very dangerous sign of things 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:29.920 to come if that continues. 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:34.200 Yeah, and Baker Mayfield talked about, you know, big comeback 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:37.360 after their disappointing performance against the Lions in Week six 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:40.720 and then maybe even a more disappointing performance against a 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:43.840 worst opponent, the Falcons in Week seven. 0:01:44.640 --> 0:01:46.160 But I actually do lean. 0:01:46.040 --> 0:01:48.840 Towards the Buccaneers here, Like, going into that loss to 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:52.320 the Falcons, the Buccaneers were seventeenth and the Massy Peabody 0:01:52.480 --> 0:01:55.600 Power ratings and fifteenth in total DVOA. 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:57.600 So this is not a terrible team. 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.680 Granted they had a really disappointing performance against the Falcons, 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:04.920 but this Bill's offense has struggled to put points on 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:09.320 the board two straight weeks against the Giants and against. 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:10.160 Your Patriots shoe. 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:12.520 So like, I don't want to lay a touchdown with 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:15.600 the Bills to a decent team, even at home. Like, yeah, 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:18.400 they could go come in and blow out, blow out, 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:20.399 the Buccaneers blow their doors off. 0:02:20.440 --> 0:02:22.960 But man, I'll take the touchdown. 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:25.640 Here, all right? Taking the touchdown? Sam, When you look 0:02:25.639 --> 0:02:28.080 at this line, anything feel off to you, any early 0:02:28.200 --> 0:02:29.400 value you might want to jump on. 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:33.680 I agree with fitz here. I think with the lower 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:38.360 total and the full seven and a half points you 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:40.639 can get with Tampa Bay, I'd be taking that. I'm 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:44.600 number looking for a reason to back Baker Mayfield. But 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:50.200 the Bills defense has struggled lately. Last week against the Patriots, 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:53.239 they allowed their highest success rate in high stp or 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:59.320 play in a game against a struggling New England offense 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.080 upflow pass rush has been good. We've seen them be 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:06.000 able to get to the quarterback even without blitzing. But 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:09.960 Tampa Bay right now is the only team to have 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:13.360 had the same five starting players at o line for 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:16.639 every single snap this season. So I think that continuity 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:19.440 will help them and we'll be able to keep them 0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:20.520 within a touchdown. 0:03:20.520 --> 0:03:23.880 On Thursday night, the Los Angeles Rams are coming off 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:25.880 a loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They're going 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:28.040 to travel to the Cowboys coming fresh off thereby. The 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:31.280 number for this one is forty five. It feels about right. 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:33.560 Dallas six and a half point favorites, all these numbers 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:36.000 coming from FanDuel plus two forty on the money line 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:39.720 here for the Rams in the potential upset Sam. The 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.440 Cowboys have been a bit of an enigma. They got 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:45.360 their w a eaked one out there against the Chargers, 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:48.119 much of the chagrin of that lady in the stands. 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:50.800 But can they keep it rolling here and get two 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:51.880 in a row. Do you think the six and a 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:53.840 half is giving the Cowboys too much credit? 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:57.280 I don't think it's giving them too much credit. I've 0:03:57.280 --> 0:04:01.240 made this Dallas by six points I think this number 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:03.440 is pretty close to spot and I don't see a 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:06.920 ton of value right now. The Rams have cooled off 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:10.080 a bit from their hot start. They don't have a 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:14.280 game with an offensive success rate over fifty percent since 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:18.360 that Week one game against the Seahawks. So I think 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:23.240 the Rams are starting to become what people expected heading 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:28.760 into the season. They're staying competitive in games, but they 0:04:28.839 --> 0:04:32.560 just don't have the full firepower on offense and the 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:35.520 defense to be able to keep them in games. So 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:37.960 I think this number spot on right now. Don't see 0:04:38.279 --> 0:04:40.720 a ton of value, but do think Dallas comes away. 0:04:40.480 --> 0:04:41.039 With the win. 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:44.080 Pat to six and a half to me is giving 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:46.840 the Cowboys just to hair too much credit. And I 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:50.080 know the Rams struggled a little bit, you know last 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:53.400 game against Pittsburgh. There maybe a wake up call Daryl Henderson, 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:55.120 Royce Freeman we talked about on the Waiver Wire show 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:57.359 and fantasy pros picking up the slack in that backfield. 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:58.920 They's had a ton of injuries. With a little bit 0:04:58.960 --> 0:05:01.920 more pract time and cohesion, can the Rams get back 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:03.559 on track and cover the six and a half. 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:07.080 Yeah, I feel sort of pulled back and forth between 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:10.159 something you just said Joe and something Sam just said. 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:12.640 It does feel like it's giving the Cowboys too much 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:14.240 credit to go up to six and a half in 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:17.120 this game. But Sam made the point that the Rams 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:19.360 have maybe reverted to being the team that we thought 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:21.800 they were going to be coming into the season. The 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:24.080 Rams are sort of in the class of the Arizona 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:27.279 Cardinals in that category teams that the first three weeks 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:31.360 of the season we were surprised at how plucky they 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:34.359 were and how competitive they were, and maybe in the 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:38.600 three or four weeks since then they have become more 0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:40.640 of the tomato can that we thought they were going 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:45.000 to be early in the season. So yeah, I'm kind 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:47.200 of torn here. I don't see any value in this. 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:48.559 I'm probably just going to stay away. 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:51.120 I'm a little bit on the Rams side right now. 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:52.640 I think the six and a half is really interesting. 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:55.039 I don't want to watch this one though, because Cowboys 0:05:55.080 --> 0:05:57.479 are a very public team. If people start betting them 0:05:57.560 --> 0:05:59.440 up a little bit, maybe this number gets a little 0:05:59.480 --> 0:06:01.120 bit more, if it gets a little higher than I'm 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.360 really on the Rams. I think the Cooper Cup, Phuk 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:06.960 and Akua think could that combination could cause some problems there, 0:06:06.960 --> 0:06:09.680 Potentially for the Cowboys. Remember Trevon Diggs out for the year. 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:11.760 That's been a big loss. Has really showed itself in 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:14.080 a lot of these games. Gilmour not quite the same 0:06:14.120 --> 0:06:16.839 player he was a few years ago. The Houston Texans 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:19.280 three and three. They're coming off of buye. So are 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:22.800 the Carolina Panthers. Still winless on the season. Things are 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:24.720 not going well for the Panthers so far this year. 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:26.760 Right now, the Houston Texans are three point favorites in 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:28.960 this game. They are one fifty five on the money line, 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:31.960 those numbers at Draft Kings. The total is forty one 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:34.479 and a half. FITZI, I jumped on this one already, 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:37.240 and I jumped on the Houston side at the minus three. 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:41.919 I am really liking the culture shift, that change, the 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:44.560 positivity that's going on there. This is the battle of 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:46.919 the number one and two quarterback. Take it in the draft. 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:48.160 I know a lot of people are gonna write and 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:50.560 talk about that this week, But only one of those 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:53.479 two quarterbacks has looked really comfortable in the NFL so far, 0:06:53.640 --> 0:06:56.160 and that guy is CJ. Stroud. He plays for the Texans. 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:58.840 Yeah, a lot of good vibes around the Texans right now. 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:01.720 And how far along they seem to be with their rebuild. 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:04.880 And you know, clearly, I think if the Panthers could 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:07.360 have a do over on the NFL Draft, they would 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:08.400 probably choose CJ. 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:09.680 Stroud and not Bryce Young. 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:14.840 The Texans have clearly been the better team, but if 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.800 you do look at the Massy Peabody rankings in this 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:20.160 it says that the Texans are about two and a 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.640 half points better on a neutral field. This game is 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:26.120 going to be a home game for the Panthers and 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:29.560 the Texans are favored by three, So that suggests maybe 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:33.560 there's a little bit of value on the Panthers as 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:34.480 a home dog here. 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:38.080 So I don't know if I can buy that. 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:41.840 I'm with you, Joe, Like, the Texans have been surprisingly 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:46.480 good this season, but I just don't think there's enough 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:49.840 value to bet them as a three point dog in Carolina. 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.040 All Right, Look, I understand home dogs are something we 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:56.320 always look for, but Sam, the Carolina Panthers have had 0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:58.480 real struggles trying to get out of their own way, 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:01.560 and the Houston Texans, like, the Texans show up there, 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:03.520 and they've showed up on the road too, which is 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:05.960 something you know, sometimes these young teams tend to struggle 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:07.800 with It's one thing to play good at home, good 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:09.680 football at home. It's another thing to play good football 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:11.640 on the road. But the Texans have done that. So 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:12.840 what do you think about this line? 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:17.040 I'm with you, Joe. I think the Texans minus three 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:21.160 here is an awesome spot. I two took them this morning. 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:24.200 The Carolina defenses is not great. They're getting a little 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:28.200 bit healthier, but the Houston offensive line is getting healthier 0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:32.640 as well. The Houston offense ranks sixth in passing EPA 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.680 for play, fourth and explosive pass rate. I don't think 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:40.040 Carolina has anyone that's going to be able to slow 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:43.640 them down. I think Houston has the coaching advantage as well, 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:47.720 with Demko Ryans making that culture shift like you mentioned, 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:50.959 and Bobby Slow on offense to you know, putting c. J. 0:08:51.080 --> 0:08:55.800 Stroud in some great opportunities to perform. So I love 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:57.840 the Texans here. I think with both of them coming 0:08:57.840 --> 0:08:59.640 off the buy, they'll have plenty of tact to bear. 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:01.800 Houston comes away. 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:02.880 With the victory. 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:06.240 Remember, if you're looking for early value, make sure you 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:08.160 go make your picks over on the betting pros app 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:10.880 get the best odds you possibly can and make those 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:12.839 picks count for a little bit more with our NFL 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:14.880 contest because we still got that rolling. So Sam and 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:17.000 I aren know the Texans already, we want to know 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:18.600 what you're in on. We want you to go ahead 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:20.839 and place your bets there and make sure every time 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:22.600 you make those picks you go and join our contest 0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:25.480 at bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest or if you 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:27.720 have the app already and I know you do, just 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:30.720 go to the community tab, click on that bad Boy, 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:33.440 click on that NFL contest join and remember, if you 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:34.840 want to get on the fund, you don't even have 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:37.679 to be making bets, your just picks here. So if 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:40.840 wagering on sports is still not quite legal in your state, 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:42.800 this is a great opportunity to get your feet wet 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:45.440 in the market. Start testing things out, start learning things 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:47.560 because the winner is going to get at Jackson Smith 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:51.160 and Jigba Autograph Jersey. We're also doing weekly prizes, monthly 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:53.440 prizes again, make five picks a week, that's all you 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:55.360 got to do one hundred on the season to be 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:58.920 eligible for that big prize that jasn Jersey. We're giving 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:01.960 away upgrades ot to Betting Pros to Fantasy Pros Premium, 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.959 also pieces from Marswag, hats, t shirts, all of that 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:07.000 from Betting Pros and Fantasy pro So join the NFL 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:11.400 contest today at Bettingpros dot com Slash and FL Contest. Gentlemen, 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:13.960 next game. I know this one's gonna hit close to you, guys. 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:17.920 I also bet this one early. I have had enough 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:21.360 already of Jordan Love. It's over for me Christian Watson 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:22.800 coming out with that injury at the end of the game. 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:26.040 I immediately jumped on Minnesota in this one plus one 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:28.959 and a half. You can even get this again. That's 0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:32.560 at minus one fifteen off FanDuel. I bet the Minnesota 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:34.760 Vikings at minus one z two, just outright to win 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:36.680 this game, because I feel like if they put on 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.200 a decent show tonight, this number might even shift a 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:42.160 little bit, maybe towards the Minnesota side some more. Forty 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:45.360 three and a half is the number, so personal aside 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:49.480 all business here. The Vikings have brought their A game 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:51.960 to Green Bay of late in the last few years. 0:10:51.960 --> 0:10:52.200 Sam. 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:55.680 I know they don't have Justin Jefferson, but frankly, right now, 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:58.280 my faith in Jordan Love and this Packers offense is 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:00.480 really low. So I like Minni and I like him. 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:03.040 Right now, what do you think, Sam. 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:05.600 Joe, you and I are some patiko this morning? 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:10.280 It seems because I mean, first of all, this is 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:12.640 the bummer bull. I mean, both of these teams are 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:16.960 trending in the wrong direction. Green Bay essentially just gets 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:21.280 home field advantage here. Vegas seemingly makes it that these 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:25.600 are some even teams on an even field. But I 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:28.640 think the Vikings offense is the best unit here. Green 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:32.120 Bay's offense did have one of its better days offensively. 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:34.800 It was the first time since Week two with a 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:38.640 positive EPA per play against Denver, but again, they were 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:41.960 playing one of the worst defenses in the league and 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:46.680 still only managed seventeen points, and seven of those points 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:50.320 came off of a tip drill touchdown. So I think 0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:54.400 Minnesota is able to come into Green Bay, much to 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:57.600 my chagrin, and pull away an upset victory. 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:01.680 Looking right now, gentlemen, even this morning, right now, on 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:04.400 bet MGM, you can get the Minnesota Vikings at plus 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:07.840 money plus one oh five. The worms turning fits. What 0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:09.679 do you say you want to come with me? And Sam? 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:10.959 Hold hands on the Island together. 0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:14.480 I'm so rattled by this heel turn by Sam Hopp 0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:17.480 and ripping off the mask to reveal purple face paints 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:18.840 very disheartening. 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:23.040 Yeah, I mean the Vikings. We're gonna see this. 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:25.640 Line undoubtedly move based on how the Vikings play against 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:27.520 the forty nine ers, But a couple of weeks ago, 0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:29.760 in their first game without Justin Jefferson, they did not 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:34.640 look very good against a suspect Chicago Bears defense like 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:39.200 that was a pretty alarming performance. So there are two 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:42.160 offenses here I don't really trust. I mean, it's certainly 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:44.920 hard to trust the Packers, especially if they're going to 0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:49.439 be without Christian Watson and their rookie tight end Luke Musgrave, 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.440 both of whom left the Broncos game with injuries and 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.600 whose status is probably very much in doubt for this game. 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:59.760 But I just cannot take the Vikings as in a 0:12:59.800 --> 0:13:02.920 row game unless I'm getting at least a field goal. 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:05.599 So I'm just it's a stay away for me. 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:09.319 You know, I'm not going to blindly bet the Packers 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:12.120 in this one. Yeah, I can't have much faith in 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:14.640 this team based on what we've seen from this offense. 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:18.880 Like you said that performance against the terrible Broncos defense 0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:20.839 was most upsetting. 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:25.120 I'm all in all on the Vikings this in the Texans. 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:27.199 My two favorite plays that I said already. Bet you 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:29.080 can follow me at petting pros dot COM's last Joe 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:32.400 follow Them Slash fits, slash slam. See what those guys 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:34.880 are in on already. But I'm jumping on this bad 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:36.640 boy early now. One that it's tough to get a 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:39.439 beat on here the Battle of New York or New Jersey, 0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:40.920 depending on how you look at it. The New York 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:43.880 Jets are going to travel to their own building to 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:47.960 take on the New York Giants, so split home field advantage. 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:49.680 However you want to look at this, Technically it's a 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:53.040 Giants home game, so theoretically more Giants fans in the stands, 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:57.520 you think probably the Giants are three point underdogs in this. 0:13:57.559 --> 0:13:59.760 One thirty six and a half is the number if 0:13:59.800 --> 0:14:01.800 you like the Giants on the money lines plus one 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:03.720 thirty six on DK that's the best number you can 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:06.520 get right now. Fits the last two weeks. The Giants 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:09.000 defense is really woken up. They're getting after the quarterback. 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:11.200 A bunch of sacks against Sam Howe last week I 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:12.800 know the Commanders give up a lot of sacks, but 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:15.400 Zach Wilson also won sometimes to take some sacks to 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:17.880 you holding the ball too long. He has played better 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:20.400 of late. This game is a bit of an enigma 0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:22.040 to me. So I'm gonna look at you Fits for 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:23.800 a little inside because I don't have a beat on 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.880 this one yet. But do you see any early value 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:28.360 when it comes to Jets Giants? 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:29.840 Yeah? Interesting, Joe. 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:31.520 Some of the games that are stay aways for me, 0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:34.880 you feel very strongly about. I feel strongly about this 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:36.760 game where it's a stay away from you. 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:38.160 I'll take the Jets here. 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.320 And while the Giants defense has played much better in 0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:45.280 the last few weeks, the Jets defense is clearly the 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:46.400 best unit in this. 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:47.480 Game, far and away. 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:50.640 And I just I don't think the Giants are going 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.640 to have much success moving the ball against this Jets defense. 0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:55.160 And I think with. 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:58.720 Breist Hall and Garrett Wilson helping out Zach Wilson, I 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:00.320 think the Jets are going to be able to ratch 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:03.560 out enough points to cover in this one. I've already 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:06.280 bet it with the Jets, and I'm kind of interested 0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:08.480 in the under here. This reminds me a little bit 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:12.200 of my under bet on the Minnesota Golden Gophers Iowa 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:15.640 Hawkeye's game this Sunday or this Saturday, which went off 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:18.280 at thirty and a half points. I looked at that 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:20.720 number and thought, I don't know if these teams are 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:24.720 getting at twenty and it comfortably finished under I think 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:28.160 this one might comfortably finish under this very low total. 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:32.440 This is going to be not the most esthetically pleasing 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:35.960 game you will ever watch in the NFL, but I 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:38.480 think the Jets win a low scoring battle here and 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:39.360 pretty comfortably. 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:41.760 I agree with you on that one fits. The one 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:43.920 appealing number to me is the under here, even though 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:45.800 it's a low number. Sam, can you buy in on 0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:47.360 that or do you have a strong feeling about this 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:48.280 game one way or another? 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:51.480 It is hilarious because the first note I have written 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:54.200 under my bullet points here is this is like Iowa 0:15:54.240 --> 0:16:00.280 Minnesota with these this is super low total. Yeah, the 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:04.520 Jets defense here is definitely the best unit. The Giants 0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:07.160 are expected to get left tackle Andrew Thomas Beck, which 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:10.400 should help a little bit. And I think at this 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:14.840 point i'd probably want Tyrod Taylor to play for the Giants. 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:17.720 I think he has a little less variability in his 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:21.440 play than Daniel Jones. The Giants have put up two 0:16:21.480 --> 0:16:24.800 of their best offensive performances from an EPA per play 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:29.800 perspective in the past two weeks with Tyrod, so it'll 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:32.320 be interesting to see what happens at the quarterback position 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.720 for the Giants. I've gone a little bit of back 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:38.960 and forth on this. I think I would take the 0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:43.280 Jets if it's three points or better, but it is 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:45.720 it is, I think going to be a very very 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:49.000 close game. I'm probably staying away for right now. But 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:54.080 the I mean, yeah, nothing really inspires much confidence in 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.320 these offenses. And I mean, when you've got a third 0:16:56.400 --> 0:17:00.480 six favor you can't not bet the under right. 0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:03.080 I feel like, like thirty six and a half, I 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:04.760 think now is a good time to jump on that 0:17:04.920 --> 0:17:06.879 because I think the more people time to marinate and 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:09.879 go through these matchups. The defense, like I said, the 0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:12.520 defensive Giants have played very well. Fits mentioned that the 0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:14.680 just defense the best union of all four of these 0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:17.560 on the field, it feels like an under here and 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:19.879 if this number starts to shrink, then next thing you know, 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:22.480 it's going to be a tougher one to make New 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:25.600 England Patriots coming off a big upset of the Buffalo Bills, 0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:28.400 much to my chagrin. I want a high draft pick, 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:30.800 that's all I want. I want them to not screw 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:34.080 up taking Marvin Harrison Junior. That's all I want. For Christmas. 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:37.399 Miami Dolphins are gonna host the New England Patriots. The 0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:39.000 Dolphins are ten and a half point favorites in this 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:41.880 one minus one oh five over on Fandle forty seven 0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:43.560 and a half is the number there as well. For 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:46.160 New England to upset, it's plus four to ten. Sam. 0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:48.240 I know the Patriots, you know, shocked a lot of 0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:50.280 people yesterday. I want to say that Buffalo is four 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:52.840 minus four hundred. I think favorites in this one very 0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:56.119 heavily favorite. Let's just put it to that New England 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:57.960 goes here as an underdog as they should be here. 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:01.439 Miami kind of have some calls go their way last night, 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:03.000 but also didn't make enough plays at the end of 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:05.160 the day. So what are your thoughts on Miami New England? 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:06.000 Is this number two big? 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:09.560 I think it is a little too big. 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.840 I made this Miami by seven and a half, and 0:18:13.160 --> 0:18:16.800 obviously at minus ten that would indicate that I'm on 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:19.760 the New England side of things. When these teams met 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:23.239 in Week two, Miami won by a touchdown. They were 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:24.800 only favored by a point and a half, but this 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:29.880 was obviously before their massive offensive explosion against the Broncos. 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:34.360 I do think that this the under here is probably 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:38.159 my strongest lean. New England's defense, I still think is 0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:42.000 pretty good and that they have a chance to contain 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:46.320 the Miami offense like they did in Week two. Miami's 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:49.880 two losses this year have come to the Bills and 0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:54.080 the Eagles, who are two of the better teams in 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:57.280 the league, and they pretty much handled their business against 0:18:57.320 --> 0:19:01.720 their weaker opponents. So I'm staying away from this right now. 0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:05.720 Aside from the under, I think this is going to 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:08.200 be a game in which both teams might struggle to 0:19:08.200 --> 0:19:09.000 put up some points. 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:12.320 I feel like Pat the danger in this game is 0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:14.840 trying to take anything out of that first matchup. The 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:17.440 first matchup was closer than I think that some people realize, 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:20.040 so I think that's going to have almost too much 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:22.879 of an impact on people's thoughts. It's creeping into your 0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:25.200 psyche too, when you're looking at this line. 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:28.359 Yeah, a little bit Joe like I'm not going to 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.760 touch this game. We didn't think the Patriots could beat 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:33.800 the Bills outright, and yet they did. 0:19:35.040 --> 0:19:35.159 So. 0:19:35.520 --> 0:19:38.520 Yes, Miami could certainly stop the gas pedal on this 0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:42.560 one and beat the Patriots by three or four touchdowns, 0:19:42.640 --> 0:19:46.120 like if they have it hitting on all cylinders offensively. 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:50.040 But man, I'm just not interested in laying double digit 0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.760 points to Bill Belichick team, And like I don't want 0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:56.000 to give Bill Belichick too much credit. The Patriots have 0:19:56.080 --> 0:19:58.080 been pretty bad for the most part this year, but 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:01.960 nor am I in interested in in betting the Patriots 0:20:02.000 --> 0:20:04.959 against these Dolphins. So this is just one I'm happy 0:20:05.040 --> 0:20:06.680 to walk away from. 0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:08.680 Fair enough, that makes a lot of sense. I think 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:11.800 this from an individual standpoint, a player prop standpoint, a 0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:15.200 far more interesting game to wager on than the game itself. However, 0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:18.760 the next one, this should be interesting. The Tennessee Titans 0:20:18.800 --> 0:20:21.199 coming off of bye. Most likely, I would say that 0:20:21.240 --> 0:20:23.480 we're gonna have Malik Willis playing quarterback here. Now this 0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:26.119 number starts out at thirty seven. I'm in on the 0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:28.520 under here as Atlanta comes to town. I know Atlanta's 0:20:28.520 --> 0:20:32.119 four and three, but they've struggled on offense lately. Desmond 0:20:32.160 --> 0:20:35.320 Ritter has had his issues here be Jhon Robinson clearly 0:20:35.400 --> 0:20:37.240 had issues enough that he couldn't even get on the field. 0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:40.439 The Falcons are minus one point favorites at minus one 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:42.639 ten over on DK. If you like Tennessee for the 0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:45.159 upset at home, it's plus one oh five over at 0:20:45.200 --> 0:20:49.000 points bet fits. Again, this one reeks of under to me, 0:20:49.440 --> 0:20:52.199 and I really it's kind of a tough sell for 0:20:52.200 --> 0:20:54.120 me to get off of that right now. And I'm 0:20:54.160 --> 0:20:57.240 also concerned that if I don't jump on this number early, 0:20:57.280 --> 0:20:59.640 it's going to also shrink on me. What do you think? 0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:02.639 I'm with you, Joe, another game where the total is 0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:06.480 very low but the under is crying out because Yeah, 0:21:06.520 --> 0:21:09.840 I mean, like with Ryan Tannehill, this would be different. 0:21:10.280 --> 0:21:13.800 I think we'd see another point or two added to 0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:15.320 the total and another point. 0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:16.520 Or two added to the Titans. 0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:18.200 I think the Titans would probably be one or two 0:21:18.240 --> 0:21:21.119 point favorites in this game if Ryan Tannehill were playing. 0:21:22.119 --> 0:21:26.520 I understand why the Falcons are favored. Like Malik Willis 0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:28.480 and the Titans offense could have a lot of trouble 0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:32.240 moving the ball against a really underrated Falcons defense, and 0:21:32.280 --> 0:21:36.040 the Falcons has been. These are two terrific run defenses 0:21:36.320 --> 0:21:39.240 in this game and two offenses that want to run 0:21:39.280 --> 0:21:43.320 the ball. So like, I see this as being a 0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:48.400 very sluggishly paced game, Joe, another one where I don't 0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:50.119 know if we're going to get to thirty points, let 0:21:50.160 --> 0:21:52.800 alone what thirty seven and a half or whatever it's 0:21:52.800 --> 0:21:53.320 at right now? 0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:58.639 With you on the under I am there, Sam, you 0:21:58.680 --> 0:22:00.600 want to come hang out with us here? This feels 0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:03.360 like thirteen to ten to me? What do you think. 0:22:04.600 --> 0:22:07.200 It very well could be? I mean, if we are 0:22:07.240 --> 0:22:11.400 going to get Malik Willis, he has struggled in every 0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:15.800 game that's he's played so far. I do like the 0:22:15.800 --> 0:22:20.520 Falcon side of this. Their defense has been pretty pretty 0:22:20.520 --> 0:22:24.960 good so far. Their eighth in passing success rate six 0:22:25.200 --> 0:22:28.639 excuse me seventh and explosive pass rate first in rushing 0:22:28.720 --> 0:22:33.239 EPA per play, so they've been able to hold their 0:22:33.280 --> 0:22:36.639 opponents pretty well. And I do think, you know, though 0:22:36.800 --> 0:22:39.960 Desmond Ritter has not been phenomenal this year, he's going 0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:43.840 to be better than whoever Tennessee trots out a quarterback, 0:22:43.880 --> 0:22:48.840 assuming it's not Ryan Tannehill. So I'm I lean stronger 0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:51.520 on the Falcon side of this than the under. But 0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:57.040 again to you guys point, the Titans are second slowest 0:22:57.200 --> 0:23:01.960 in the league in terms of neutral script and third 0:23:02.000 --> 0:23:05.840 worst in no auto rates, So there's not going to 0:23:05.920 --> 0:23:08.000 be a lot of offense in this game, as the 0:23:08.040 --> 0:23:08.919 under suggests. 0:23:08.960 --> 0:23:11.440 But like the Falcons in the spot. 0:23:12.280 --> 0:23:15.160 The last time the Washington Commanders went to Philadelphia to play, 0:23:15.200 --> 0:23:18.160 the Eagles got a lot closer than I think any 0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:20.760 of us really expected it to be. Again another danger 0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:23.840 I think of trying to copy and paste what happened 0:23:23.840 --> 0:23:26.040 a few weeks ago into what could happen in Week eight. 0:23:26.880 --> 0:23:29.000 Washington is six and a half point underdogs at home 0:23:29.040 --> 0:23:32.200 at Mice won ten. Always intriguing, but again they're giving 0:23:32.240 --> 0:23:35.000 up so many sacks here, averaging over three and a 0:23:35.119 --> 0:23:39.040 half per game. Sam, that's a lot, and especially with 0:23:39.080 --> 0:23:41.560 the young quarterback who sometimes tried to do too much, 0:23:41.720 --> 0:23:43.800 and there should have been some more picks for Sam 0:23:43.840 --> 0:23:46.119 how yesterday in that game against the Giants that he 0:23:46.200 --> 0:23:48.840 barely got away with. Forty four is the number four 0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:50.680 this one on the under, forty three and a half 0:23:50.720 --> 0:23:53.600 on DK and if you like Washington for the upsets 0:23:53.600 --> 0:23:56.240 plus two thirty on the money line. The Eagles went 0:23:56.240 --> 0:23:59.760 out there, handled their business against an incredible offense last 0:23:59.840 --> 0:24:02.119 night Miami. I think this was a good confidence builder 0:24:02.160 --> 0:24:03.800 for the Eagles who have been scuffling a little bit. 0:24:04.119 --> 0:24:06.600 Does that confidence travel to Washington and do they cover 0:24:06.680 --> 0:24:07.840 the six and a half? Sam? 0:24:08.359 --> 0:24:09.040 I think it does. 0:24:09.320 --> 0:24:12.760 The way that Sam Howell is taking sacks is just 0:24:13.520 --> 0:24:16.760 it's not sustainable for having that offense. I mean, I 0:24:16.840 --> 0:24:20.879 know you mentioned that the Giants defense has been playing better, 0:24:20.960 --> 0:24:25.000 but man, they only got seven points against them and 0:24:25.280 --> 0:24:28.280 just could not move the ball. They're they're taking sacks 0:24:28.320 --> 0:24:32.920 that are are drive killers, and I think Philadelphia again 0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:36.920 has started to show what they really can't do offensively. 0:24:37.040 --> 0:24:40.680 The Washington defense is by no means as good as 0:24:40.720 --> 0:24:44.240 we expected them coming into the season. They're currently twenty 0:24:44.280 --> 0:24:48.560 seventh in EPA per played aloud, twenty eighth in early 0:24:48.600 --> 0:24:52.720 down EPA per played allowed. So I think Philadelphia goes 0:24:52.720 --> 0:24:56.320 into Washington, handles their business and covers this six and 0:24:56.320 --> 0:24:56.639 a half. 0:24:57.720 --> 0:25:00.879 All right, Pat, thoughts on this one? Two? Are you 0:25:00.960 --> 0:25:02.639 so confident in the Eagles? Maybe you want to go 0:25:02.680 --> 0:25:04.720 past the six and a half. Do you want to 0:25:04.720 --> 0:25:07.400 go ahead and just look for some defensive props here 0:25:07.440 --> 0:25:09.199 on some sacks because I know Bodmin and I are 0:25:09.240 --> 0:25:11.400 going to be on that this week for sure. Yeah. 0:25:11.440 --> 0:25:13.439 I mean, you've got the team that chased the NFL 0:25:13.680 --> 0:25:16.919 single season sack record last year, going up against a 0:25:17.000 --> 0:25:19.919 quarterback who has been sacked forty times already. 0:25:20.240 --> 0:25:22.080 He has Son Reddick, I can handle Pat. 0:25:22.240 --> 0:25:23.679 Oh my goodness, where is it? 0:25:24.480 --> 0:25:28.159 Justin Fields was the most sacked NFL quarterback of twenty 0:25:28.200 --> 0:25:31.000 twenty two with fifty five sacks. I mean, Sam Howll 0:25:31.080 --> 0:25:32.760 is just fifteen behind that. We're not even in the 0:25:32.800 --> 0:25:33.880 midway point of the. 0:25:33.960 --> 0:25:35.680 Season yet that's suppressing. 0:25:36.160 --> 0:25:37.000 Oh my goodness. 0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:40.119 So yeah, the Commanders did manage to take the Eagles 0:25:40.119 --> 0:25:43.080 to overtime in Week four before losing thirty four to 0:25:43.080 --> 0:25:43.479 thirty one. 0:25:43.520 --> 0:25:46.320 And Howell played probably his best game in that game. 0:25:46.359 --> 0:25:47.879 Like he was really good in the second half in 0:25:47.920 --> 0:25:50.399 the comeback against the Broncos, but not so great in 0:25:50.400 --> 0:25:52.080 the first half of that game. He played a pretty 0:25:52.080 --> 0:25:54.800 complete game against the Eagles. I don't think he's going 0:25:54.840 --> 0:25:56.560 to be able to do it again. Like, and I 0:25:56.640 --> 0:25:59.399 want to grab this while it's still under a touchdown. 0:26:00.080 --> 0:26:01.240 Yeah, give me the Eagles here. 0:26:01.600 --> 0:26:04.560 The New Orleans Saints with a little extra time after 0:26:05.240 --> 0:26:07.439 playing on Thursday night, they made it close, but they 0:26:07.440 --> 0:26:09.920 fell short, unfortunately, at every opportunity to win that game. 0:26:10.000 --> 0:26:12.879 Sort of the Colts this weekend, who came up short 0:26:12.920 --> 0:26:15.600 as well. Some might say the referee screwed them out 0:26:15.640 --> 0:26:19.600 on a ball that was probably unketchable, and they'd be 0:26:19.680 --> 0:26:22.959 right in my opinion. The Colts are one point favorites 0:26:23.000 --> 0:26:25.399 at homes, so basically this is a pick him at 0:26:25.400 --> 0:26:27.280 this point. Forty three and a half is the number 0:26:27.320 --> 0:26:30.440 on DraftKings plus one h two over on DK for 0:26:30.560 --> 0:26:32.639 the New Orleans Saints' side. The best value on this 0:26:32.720 --> 0:26:35.600 board right now is the Saints at that plus number. 0:26:35.960 --> 0:26:38.879 But Fitz, this is another one too where this reeks 0:26:38.920 --> 0:26:42.280 of range of outcomes and there could be easily four 0:26:42.320 --> 0:26:44.919 of them where one side blows the other out, or 0:26:44.960 --> 0:26:47.639 it's a very high scoring affair, were very underwhelming affair. 0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:49.679 These are the kind of games that scare the hell 0:26:49.680 --> 0:26:51.439 out of me because they're hard to invest in. So 0:26:51.520 --> 0:26:54.720 I would just look for the specific player props in 0:26:54.760 --> 0:26:56.520 this one, I'd stay away from the lines. But do 0:26:56.560 --> 0:26:57.960 you see something differently here? 0:26:58.800 --> 0:27:01.240 I could not agree more with your assessment of that, Joe, 0:27:01.280 --> 0:27:03.840 And if you took all the thirty two NFL teams. 0:27:04.359 --> 0:27:06.440 I think the two that I have bet. 0:27:06.160 --> 0:27:09.200 Least successfully this year so far would be the Colts 0:27:09.200 --> 0:27:12.680 and the Saints, so I'm delighted they're playing each other. 0:27:12.760 --> 0:27:15.159 I can just completely ignore this game from a betting 0:27:15.200 --> 0:27:18.879 perspective and focus on the other fifteen games on the slate. 0:27:19.000 --> 0:27:22.160 So yeah, I'll pass. Maybe Sam's got a strong take 0:27:22.200 --> 0:27:24.040 on this one. I'd love to hear it. I'm i 0:27:24.119 --> 0:27:25.560 way to touch this game. 0:27:25.920 --> 0:27:28.000 I'm waiting with baited breath. Sam, do you have anything 0:27:28.080 --> 0:27:30.800 fun here that might crack us out of our duldrums 0:27:30.800 --> 0:27:32.679 when it comes to these two teams because I'm with 0:27:32.720 --> 0:27:35.280 fits on a weekly basis. I stare at the Saints. 0:27:35.640 --> 0:27:38.719 I stare at the Colts, especially the Colts without Anthony Richardson. 0:27:38.800 --> 0:27:40.560 I find it much harder to gauge that because that 0:27:41.440 --> 0:27:44.359 explosiveness is gone now. I mean, maybe Jonathan Taylor brings 0:27:44.359 --> 0:27:47.360 a part of it back, but Richardson brought that explosiveness 0:27:47.400 --> 0:27:50.000 where I always felt like, ooh, the overs really tempting 0:27:50.040 --> 0:27:52.040 here because he makes those big plays and all of 0:27:52.080 --> 0:27:54.679 a sudden puts you in positions those third and longs, 0:27:54.720 --> 0:27:57.560 the third and fifteen becomes a first down. That stuff 0:27:57.600 --> 0:27:59.919 doesn't happen necessarily with Gardner Minshew, So what do you 0:28:00.119 --> 0:28:00.960 about this contest? 0:28:01.960 --> 0:28:04.439 This is a really fascinating one, and I think to 0:28:04.480 --> 0:28:07.280 your point, Joe, the range of outcomes on this one 0:28:07.640 --> 0:28:10.640 is incredibly wide, and I think for that reason, I'd 0:28:10.680 --> 0:28:14.480 be looking to take one of these teams on an 0:28:14.480 --> 0:28:16.280 alternate spread. You know, mine is five and a half, 0:28:16.320 --> 0:28:19.720 my six and a half type thing to capture one 0:28:19.760 --> 0:28:23.960 of those tail outcomes, because I think the Colts probably 0:28:24.040 --> 0:28:27.200 have the much wider range of outcomes where they could 0:28:27.680 --> 0:28:30.800 either play tremendously well like they did against a Browns 0:28:30.840 --> 0:28:35.040 defense that was playing at historic levels. Obviously that they 0:28:35.080 --> 0:28:38.680 didn't come away with the win there, but their offense 0:28:39.120 --> 0:28:42.680 showed up and could do the same thing to the 0:28:42.840 --> 0:28:46.800 Saints defense that has played pretty well this year. 0:28:46.920 --> 0:28:49.080 But it's also Gardner. 0:28:48.840 --> 0:28:52.840 Minshew like, I'm not going to trust it based off 0:28:52.880 --> 0:28:56.800 of one game. I think the Colts have the biggest 0:28:56.800 --> 0:29:00.520 advantage from a coaching perspective. I think Shane Stikeen has 0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:05.200 done phenomenal this year with his decision making and play calling, 0:29:05.400 --> 0:29:09.960 but the SAME's defense is still really good, so I 0:29:10.680 --> 0:29:13.400 don't have an early lean on this game right now, 0:29:13.440 --> 0:29:16.120 I'd be looking at again what I said that some 0:29:16.200 --> 0:29:21.400 of the alt spreads probably on the cult side of things. 0:29:21.920 --> 0:29:24.160 Yeah, I can understand that, and that approach is the 0:29:24.160 --> 0:29:25.640 best way to make money off this game. Sam is 0:29:25.640 --> 0:29:27.640 one hundred percent right. Let's see if we can make 0:29:27.640 --> 0:29:28.440 some money on the next one. 0:29:28.480 --> 0:29:28.600 Here. 0:29:28.640 --> 0:29:31.360 The Jacksonville Jaguars coming off a big Thursday Night football victory. 0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:34.640 Trevor Lawrence despite that knee injury, Sam, he looks real 0:29:34.680 --> 0:29:36.560 good running the football all round, so he's got a 0:29:36.560 --> 0:29:38.560 little extra time arrest, which is a big thing here. 0:29:38.800 --> 0:29:41.760 Pittsburgh coming off a big win of their own going 0:29:41.800 --> 0:29:44.640 into LA. They brought all of their fan base with 0:29:44.680 --> 0:29:47.080 them to man at that feel like a home game 0:29:47.360 --> 0:29:50.080 in Los Angeles for the Steelers. Forty two is the 0:29:50.160 --> 0:29:52.760 number for this one. Pittsburgh is two and a half 0:29:52.840 --> 0:29:56.120 point underdogs at home minus one ten plus one eighteen 0:29:56.160 --> 0:30:00.440 over on FanDuel. Sam. We started this season off one 0:30:00.480 --> 0:30:03.280 of my favorite beats in Week one was Pittsburgh home dog, 0:30:03.480 --> 0:30:05.720 and I was all in and for them to cover 0:30:05.760 --> 0:30:08.480 that number. They did not. They got their doors blown off. 0:30:09.440 --> 0:30:11.760 Is it time that we can start feeling comfortable again 0:30:11.880 --> 0:30:15.040 with going and attacking the Pittsburgh Steelers as home underdogs 0:30:15.120 --> 0:30:17.080 being a very dangerous thing, and maybe go right to 0:30:17.080 --> 0:30:19.080 the money line at plus one eighteen on this. I 0:30:19.160 --> 0:30:21.200 want to say yes. I feel like you want to 0:30:21.200 --> 0:30:24.280 say yes too. Say yes, Sam, I don't. 0:30:24.080 --> 0:30:27.560 Know what Mike Tomlin does in his spare time that 0:30:27.760 --> 0:30:32.680 he's got this Pittsburgh Steelers team where it is right now. 0:30:32.800 --> 0:30:35.760 I mean like they are winning games that nobody's expecting 0:30:35.760 --> 0:30:39.880 them to win the game against Baltimore, the game this 0:30:40.000 --> 0:30:45.280 past weekend, and I really like the Jaguars here. Pittsburgh 0:30:45.320 --> 0:30:48.280 I think is a team similar to New Orleans, where 0:30:48.280 --> 0:30:51.480 they get success from their defense, but the offense sputter 0:30:51.560 --> 0:30:54.240 is quite a bit. To your point, Jacksonville is going 0:30:54.280 --> 0:30:58.120 to get ten days of rest. Trevor Lawrence looks really good, 0:30:58.560 --> 0:31:02.120 especially running the ball, despite going into that Thursday night 0:31:02.160 --> 0:31:08.200 game against the Saints with that knee injury. So I 0:31:08.240 --> 0:31:11.720 think that Jacksonville is going to be able to handle 0:31:11.760 --> 0:31:16.760 their business here and Mike Tomlin's voodoo magic will wear off. 0:31:16.680 --> 0:31:17.360 For this one. 0:31:19.080 --> 0:31:22.560 Look, it's very sensible of you, Sam. I guess I'm 0:31:22.600 --> 0:31:24.600 betting here a little bit more with my heart than 0:31:24.600 --> 0:31:26.840 my head, which probably is going to get me in trouble. 0:31:27.160 --> 0:31:31.240 But fits they have one two huge, get found a 0:31:31.240 --> 0:31:33.160 way to win, and sometimes that starts to build a 0:31:33.160 --> 0:31:36.200 little confidence. They do get after the quarterback too, that's 0:31:36.240 --> 0:31:36.720 a good thing. 0:31:36.760 --> 0:31:36.960 I know. 0:31:37.000 --> 0:31:38.560 There's a lot of deficits here when you look at 0:31:38.560 --> 0:31:40.760 the numbers for the Pittsburgh Steelers this year on defense, 0:31:40.800 --> 0:31:44.000 it's something we're not used to seeing. But let's not 0:31:44.040 --> 0:31:47.320 pretend like Jacksonville is perfect either on their defensive side 0:31:47.360 --> 0:31:48.960 of the football. So how do you see this game? 0:31:49.000 --> 0:31:51.040 Do you see the same value I do on Pittsburgh early? 0:31:51.640 --> 0:31:54.360 I do, Joe, And of course Sam is the hardcore 0:31:54.440 --> 0:31:56.280 numbers guy, so he's got to go where the numbers 0:31:56.360 --> 0:31:58.320 lead him. And the numbers will tell you that the 0:31:58.400 --> 0:32:01.120 Steelers have no business watching ever being four and two 0:32:01.240 --> 0:32:02.960 right now because they have not been a good team 0:32:03.000 --> 0:32:06.160 this year. And meanwhile, the Jaguars have won four straight. 0:32:06.280 --> 0:32:08.840 They've averaged twenty nine points a game during that stretch. 0:32:09.680 --> 0:32:12.520 But Joe, you asked me yesterday who I thought was 0:32:12.560 --> 0:32:14.960 gonna win the AFC North, and I told you the Steelers, 0:32:15.600 --> 0:32:20.440 and you like laughed, and I said, like, I mean, 0:32:20.560 --> 0:32:23.400 I have immense faith in Mike Tomlin, maybe way too 0:32:23.520 --> 0:32:27.000 much faith, Like I feel like eventually the Steelers are 0:32:27.040 --> 0:32:29.800 going to start playing better, especially on defense, because I 0:32:29.800 --> 0:32:31.640 think they have the personnel to be a lot better 0:32:31.680 --> 0:32:32.240 on defense. 0:32:32.640 --> 0:32:34.760 And I'm going to take the Steelers as a. 0:32:34.720 --> 0:32:36.920 Home dog, and I'm gonna hit them on the money line, Joe, 0:32:37.080 --> 0:32:42.000 as you recommended against a team that is an upstart 0:32:42.000 --> 0:32:44.320 in the AFC Up and coming for certain, but I 0:32:44.400 --> 0:32:47.400 don't think they are yet ready to be one of 0:32:47.440 --> 0:32:50.200 the elite teams of the AFC. Like I wouldn't even 0:32:50.200 --> 0:32:53.000 feel great about taking the Chiefs as a two and 0:32:53.000 --> 0:32:56.120 a half point road favorite in Pittsburgh, So why do 0:32:56.160 --> 0:32:59.920 I want to take the Jaguars at that number? So yeah, 0:33:00.040 --> 0:33:02.680 I mean, I just like I can't back Jacksonville here. 0:33:02.720 --> 0:33:04.760 I'm going to take the money line with the Steelers. 0:33:05.040 --> 0:33:08.200 Yeah, me too. I will say this. I did laugh 0:33:08.200 --> 0:33:11.760 in the morning, but after watching that game, I saw 0:33:11.920 --> 0:33:16.120 Kenny Pickett changing plays at goal line. I saw him 0:33:16.120 --> 0:33:18.120 starting to look more comfortable taking a little bit more 0:33:18.160 --> 0:33:20.520 charge being a quarterback basically, which is something you really 0:33:20.560 --> 0:33:22.040 didn't see in the first month of the season. It 0:33:22.120 --> 0:33:23.560 just did not look like it was in a good 0:33:23.560 --> 0:33:29.120 place and that's very encouraging, and that AFC North is 0:33:29.160 --> 0:33:31.280 wide open. We're gonna talk about those teams kind of 0:33:31.320 --> 0:33:33.520 in a row here as we go before we get 0:33:33.560 --> 0:33:36.760 to them, though a few in between. The Cleveland Browns. Actually, 0:33:36.840 --> 0:33:38.280 no Cleveland Brown is going to write to him. I 0:33:38.560 --> 0:33:42.440 forgot Cleveland Brown's Seattle cleveand Brown's coming off a huge win. 0:33:42.520 --> 0:33:46.600 Seattle eaked one out against the lesser opponent that really 0:33:46.640 --> 0:33:48.480 they let hang around way too much in that game. 0:33:48.600 --> 0:33:50.200 Forty and a half is the number for this one. 0:33:50.240 --> 0:33:53.120 Seattle is two and a half point favorites at home 0:33:53.160 --> 0:33:56.280 against Cleveland defense. Does travel pat the Cleveland Browns are 0:33:56.320 --> 0:33:59.000 plus one thirty? Do we see PJ Walker in this game? 0:33:59.080 --> 0:34:01.960 Or we backed into shann w So much intrigue going 0:34:01.960 --> 0:34:04.520 on with the Cleveland Browns at Miles Garrett, who has 0:34:04.800 --> 0:34:07.360 just been playing out of his mind so far in 0:34:07.400 --> 0:34:09.239 the last few weeks. What are your thoughts on this 0:34:09.280 --> 0:34:12.440 one here? Because this is also a matter of if 0:34:12.480 --> 0:34:15.520 you believe enough in that Cleveland defense, then I think 0:34:15.600 --> 0:34:18.200 that plus one thirty is a tremendous value right here. 0:34:18.840 --> 0:34:21.799 Yeah, I'm guessing we do see Deshaun Watson in this one, Joe, 0:34:21.880 --> 0:34:26.080 since he was cleared to play and return, but they 0:34:26.160 --> 0:34:29.120 held him out. Kevin Stefanski didn't want to take any chances. 0:34:29.200 --> 0:34:34.880 So this is a really interesting, fun, fascinating matchup between 0:34:34.920 --> 0:34:38.200 two teams that I think are playoff caliber but maybe. 0:34:37.920 --> 0:34:39.160 Not Super Bowl caliber. 0:34:39.719 --> 0:34:43.000 And I looked at this one pretty hard at this morning, 0:34:43.040 --> 0:34:46.799 trying to find value on either the side, like a 0:34:46.800 --> 0:34:49.520 side or a total. Just couldn't do it. I think 0:34:49.560 --> 0:34:51.880 these the line and the total are both spot on. 0:34:52.000 --> 0:34:53.920 So I'm not going to touch this one. 0:34:54.120 --> 0:34:57.359 Sam, I'm going right for the Cleveland Browns. I'm going 0:34:57.440 --> 0:34:59.759 right for that. I just something about the Seahawks. I 0:34:59.840 --> 0:35:02.080 just don't buy into any toughness there. I don't think 0:35:02.120 --> 0:35:04.319 that home field advantage is the same thing it was 0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:06.799 a few years ago. I think that's kind of that 0:35:06.840 --> 0:35:08.520 ship has sailed a little bit as well on them. 0:35:08.520 --> 0:35:09.920 What do you think about this game or are you 0:35:10.000 --> 0:35:10.800 seeing it differently? 0:35:11.440 --> 0:35:13.400 Yeah, Joe, we are no longer some pazzi coo. 0:35:14.480 --> 0:35:16.239 We had a good run, Sam, we had a good run. 0:35:16.680 --> 0:35:20.440 I'm with the Seahawks here. Their defense continues to play 0:35:20.680 --> 0:35:23.440 incredibly well. They haven't allowed to success rate over forty 0:35:23.560 --> 0:35:26.919 six percent in each of their last four games. Now 0:35:26.920 --> 0:35:29.719 you can look at the quality of the opponents that 0:35:29.880 --> 0:35:30.440 they're playing. 0:35:30.560 --> 0:35:32.560 Glad you're waging that. That's what I want to talk about. 0:35:32.600 --> 0:35:33.240 Uh huh. 0:35:33.280 --> 0:35:37.200 What about the Browns offense inspires you to think that 0:35:37.840 --> 0:35:40.680 they're any better than those those teams that they played. 0:35:40.719 --> 0:35:43.440 They they're one of the worst offenses in the league 0:35:43.480 --> 0:35:48.240 despite you know, regardless of who's at quarterback, and clearly 0:35:48.280 --> 0:35:51.360 there's something weird going on with us, this whole Deshaun 0:35:51.400 --> 0:35:55.480 Watson situation. You know, they were in this competitive game 0:35:55.600 --> 0:35:58.440 and they were trying to play the long game for 0:35:59.560 --> 0:36:03.680 Watson's health, but they didn't put him in. So it's 0:36:03.760 --> 0:36:05.960 just a really weird situation. 0:36:06.200 --> 0:36:06.560 I think. 0:36:07.000 --> 0:36:10.960 I think the Seahawks will get dk Metcalf back in 0:36:10.960 --> 0:36:16.200 this game as well. So I think while the Seahawks 0:36:16.280 --> 0:36:20.560 are on the better side of the three points, I'm 0:36:21.040 --> 0:36:22.120 taking them in this game. 0:36:23.080 --> 0:36:26.160 All right. I'm standing alone here with my Cleveland Browns. 0:36:26.160 --> 0:36:30.160 They keep finding ways to win. And that's again, defense 0:36:30.200 --> 0:36:31.520 travels at the end of the day. I think that's 0:36:31.800 --> 0:36:34.040 a look for not in You're right, Seattle's defense, I've 0:36:34.040 --> 0:36:36.560 played well, it's just It's hard for me to believe 0:36:36.600 --> 0:36:39.200 in them and the opponents they've played. You know, when 0:36:39.239 --> 0:36:42.560 you go beat the forty nine ers offense with your defense, 0:36:42.640 --> 0:36:46.600 then I'm that perks my interest. Kansas City, man, they 0:36:46.640 --> 0:36:48.840 looked pretty good. They put up a ton of points. 0:36:49.360 --> 0:36:52.239 Travis Kelsey, Patrick Mahomes looked unstoppable. Seven and a half 0:36:52.320 --> 0:36:55.839 point road favorites going into Denver. That's the best number 0:36:55.840 --> 0:36:57.800 you get right now. Forty five and a half is 0:36:57.800 --> 0:36:59.880 the number for this game, plus three ten for the 0:37:00.040 --> 0:37:02.600 Broncos on the money line. You could let that one go, folks. 0:37:02.960 --> 0:37:05.480 The question is I mean, I'm looking at this, Sam, 0:37:05.520 --> 0:37:07.360 I feel like the seven and a half just isn't enough. 0:37:07.800 --> 0:37:09.640 I mean, what am I not seeing here when it 0:37:09.680 --> 0:37:10.880 comes to Kansas City and Denver? 0:37:11.920 --> 0:37:16.400 I have no idea. I'm back with you again. I 0:37:16.560 --> 0:37:21.000 made Kansas City ten point favorites, and the Chiefs were 0:37:21.080 --> 0:37:24.279 ten and a half point favorites when they played just 0:37:24.400 --> 0:37:27.839 two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. But now they're 0:37:27.920 --> 0:37:30.600 on the road. They did win by eleven, so they 0:37:30.719 --> 0:37:34.920 barely covered that spread. But it's basically using the same 0:37:35.040 --> 0:37:38.520 line as that game and switching the one and a 0:37:38.560 --> 0:37:42.200 half points for home field advantage over to the Broncos. 0:37:42.239 --> 0:37:46.160 But the Chiefs defense continues to play incredibly. They haven't 0:37:46.160 --> 0:37:49.160 allowed more than twenty one points in a game this season. 0:37:49.520 --> 0:37:51.600 The Chiefs offense did spun it a little bit in 0:37:51.640 --> 0:37:54.400 that second half against. 0:37:54.000 --> 0:37:57.080 The Chargers, and I don't know. 0:37:57.360 --> 0:37:59.319 I think the Chiefs are the best team in the 0:37:59.440 --> 0:38:03.719 NFL right now. Their offense is not at its full potential, 0:38:03.840 --> 0:38:07.640 but man, I just think they're waiting for that game 0:38:07.840 --> 0:38:10.920 to explode and this is going to be the one. 0:38:12.040 --> 0:38:14.640 Well, I mean, Denver's one of the worst past defenses 0:38:14.640 --> 0:38:18.960 in the league. Mahomes look really comfortable last this best 0:38:18.960 --> 0:38:22.959 Sunday throwing the football again to Travis Kelcey all day long. 0:38:23.239 --> 0:38:25.640 I get a little me Cole Harbin back now, which 0:38:25.640 --> 0:38:29.520 is pretty fun. But I don't know, Pat, I'm looking 0:38:29.520 --> 0:38:31.560 at this and I expect it in my mind double digits, 0:38:31.560 --> 0:38:33.439 Like I'm thinking ten and a half and at seven 0:38:33.480 --> 0:38:34.600 and a half, and I just want to lock that 0:38:34.680 --> 0:38:36.920 in now because I'm worried that more time goes on, 0:38:36.960 --> 0:38:38.279 this is going to continue to grow. Do you have 0:38:38.280 --> 0:38:39.000 that same concern. 0:38:39.600 --> 0:38:41.879 I bet the Chiefs already, Joe, it is going to grow. 0:38:42.239 --> 0:38:44.600 I think we will get like this maybe is a 0:38:44.680 --> 0:38:47.759 chance to get to double digits. I wouldn't be surprised 0:38:47.760 --> 0:38:51.120 to see it finishing, closing it like Chiefs minus nine 0:38:51.200 --> 0:38:54.520 and a half or so. Look, the Chiefs have beaten 0:38:54.560 --> 0:38:58.200 the Broncos in sixteen straight games. This goes back to 0:38:58.480 --> 0:39:03.200 before the start of Patrick Mahomes career twenty fifteen. Like 0:39:03.280 --> 0:39:06.560 the Broncos in this rivalry are like Sisyphis trying to 0:39:06.560 --> 0:39:08.720 push the boulder up the hill, like they just can't 0:39:08.760 --> 0:39:11.799 do it. It just keeps rolling back down over them. 0:39:11.840 --> 0:39:14.040 So yeah, give me the Chiefs all day here. 0:39:14.400 --> 0:39:16.919 I love a good Sisyphis reference this early in the morning. 0:39:16.960 --> 0:39:21.120 It's my favorite thing. Next one here, the Baltimore Ravens 0:39:21.200 --> 0:39:24.360 just an absolute butt kicking. They laid on the Detroit Lions. 0:39:24.960 --> 0:39:27.440 Detroit was flying high. They got checked. They got checked 0:39:27.440 --> 0:39:29.920 hard too. Eight and a half is the number for this. 0:39:29.960 --> 0:39:33.800 When Baltimore Ravens our favorites against Arizona, that feels again 0:39:34.000 --> 0:39:36.560 also kind of like a small number. I know the 0:39:36.640 --> 0:39:38.880 Ravens have been frustrating Pat sometimes. Forty four is the 0:39:38.880 --> 0:39:42.200 over under Arizona for the upset plus three thirty. But 0:39:42.800 --> 0:39:44.480 I keep coming back at minus one ten at eight 0:39:44.520 --> 0:39:47.920 and a half, I'm pretty comfortable with that number, especially 0:39:48.000 --> 0:39:51.640 if this is the new Ravens that we're going to see. 0:39:51.680 --> 0:39:54.280 Where they are. You know, Lamar is running the football 0:39:54.280 --> 0:39:58.080 over the place being Lamar again. You're seeing Odell healthy 0:39:58.120 --> 0:40:00.560 on the field. You're seeing Andrews look like Andrews A. 0:40:00.680 --> 0:40:02.960 Flowers has been really good, and look some of the 0:40:03.040 --> 0:40:04.919 running backs like Gus Edwards made a big play there. 0:40:05.000 --> 0:40:07.560 If they can get that to travel and Arizona, goodness 0:40:07.560 --> 0:40:09.000 knows that offensive line is bad. What do you think 0:40:09.040 --> 0:40:10.719 you think this eight and a half is a gimme? 0:40:11.600 --> 0:40:14.239 I two have bet the Ravens early, Joe and I 0:40:14.239 --> 0:40:16.839 didn't feel as good betting the Ravens as I did 0:40:16.840 --> 0:40:20.480 betting the Chiefs. For me, it is less about my 0:40:20.520 --> 0:40:23.640 confidence in the Ravens repeating the sort of performance they 0:40:23.760 --> 0:40:28.160 had against the Lions than it is in betting against 0:40:28.160 --> 0:40:31.760 the Cardinals, who I think have after the plucky start 0:40:31.840 --> 0:40:34.200 the first three weeks of the season kind of reverted 0:40:34.239 --> 0:40:37.239 to what we thought they were going to be, which 0:40:37.320 --> 0:40:41.200 is basically the biggest doormat in the NFL. That was 0:40:41.200 --> 0:40:43.800 our expectation for them before the start of the season, 0:40:44.120 --> 0:40:49.000 Cardinals have lost four straight games by double digits, failed 0:40:49.000 --> 0:40:52.520 to cover in all four of those games. Yeah, and 0:40:52.560 --> 0:40:55.440 the Ravens are just humming right now. So even I 0:40:55.480 --> 0:40:58.040 think if the Ravens offense were to have some hiccups 0:40:58.040 --> 0:41:00.680 in this game, they could still cover the number pretty 0:41:00.719 --> 0:41:02.960 easily because I don't see the Cardinals doing much business 0:41:02.960 --> 0:41:04.400 against the Baltimore defense. 0:41:05.239 --> 0:41:08.160 Okay, Sam, your thoughts on this one. Baltimore had a 0:41:08.200 --> 0:41:10.840 really strong showing. Am I overrating what I saw Sunday 0:41:10.840 --> 0:41:11.279 too much? 0:41:12.040 --> 0:41:16.040 I don't think so. I mean, the Lions were a 0:41:16.040 --> 0:41:21.000 great team, and they blew the doors off them offensively. 0:41:21.440 --> 0:41:26.200 They shut the offense of the Lions down, and so 0:41:26.719 --> 0:41:32.239 I think Baltimore is easily going to go into Arizona 0:41:32.360 --> 0:41:35.560 and cover this spread. I mean, they're getting healthier on offense, 0:41:35.640 --> 0:41:38.400 they have their full set of receivers now that I 0:41:38.440 --> 0:41:41.840 don't think they're quite as talented as they were hoping 0:41:41.880 --> 0:41:45.360 to going into the season. But as this offense starts 0:41:45.400 --> 0:41:47.640 to click, and I think we saw, you know, sort 0:41:47.640 --> 0:41:50.279 of the first iteration of that Lamar played at an 0:41:50.400 --> 0:41:53.000 MVP level like we've seen him play in the past, 0:41:53.480 --> 0:41:56.239 and I don't think this Cardinals defense is going to 0:41:56.239 --> 0:41:58.000 be able to slow them down whatsoever. 0:41:58.840 --> 0:42:00.799 Yeah, I don't think the offensive line is gonna slow 0:42:00.880 --> 0:42:03.759 down anybody either. Let me tell you they are a joke. 0:42:04.120 --> 0:42:06.919 Cincinnati at San Fran. We'll see what San Fran does tonight. 0:42:07.000 --> 0:42:09.120 Christian McCaffrey is slated to play in that Monday night game. 0:42:09.120 --> 0:42:11.560 Don't forget you could always check us out Monday nights, 0:42:11.640 --> 0:42:14.000 so we're always doing five pm Eastern bop and I 0:42:14.080 --> 0:42:16.440 going through the best bets for Monday Night football and 0:42:16.640 --> 0:42:18.880 Thursday Night Football Thursdays at five pm Eastern. 0:42:18.920 --> 0:42:19.120 Two. 0:42:20.320 --> 0:42:22.000 You got the San Francisco minus five and a half. 0:42:22.080 --> 0:42:23.759 That feels about right to me. Minus one ten on 0:42:23.840 --> 0:42:25.440 DK forty five and a half is the number the 0:42:25.440 --> 0:42:29.560 Bengals had that buy, hopefully a little even healthier for 0:42:29.640 --> 0:42:32.319 Joe Burrow plus two ten and for t Higgins two 0:42:32.320 --> 0:42:35.600 plus two ten for the Bengals here for the upset, 0:42:36.360 --> 0:42:39.160 I don't think the upset is not in play here, Sam. 0:42:39.360 --> 0:42:40.880 I know the forty nine ers on paper are that 0:42:40.880 --> 0:42:43.319 better team, but it's not always the best team that wins. 0:42:43.360 --> 0:42:45.120 The team to plays the best. So what are your 0:42:45.120 --> 0:42:48.120 thoughts here as San Francisco coming off that loss. I 0:42:48.160 --> 0:42:50.960 know we have to see what they bring tonight against Minnesota, 0:42:51.000 --> 0:42:53.720 but is there any early value before that game happens. 0:42:54.320 --> 0:42:56.919 I don't think so. I honestly have no lean here 0:42:57.040 --> 0:43:00.160 right now. I think this number is spot on. Had 0:43:00.200 --> 0:43:02.160 San Francisco's five and a half point favorite, so I 0:43:02.200 --> 0:43:05.839 think it's about in line what I was expecting. I mean, 0:43:06.440 --> 0:43:08.680 if you do like Cincy, I don't think this is 0:43:08.719 --> 0:43:11.600 a bad spot because San Francisco will be playing on 0:43:11.640 --> 0:43:15.640 a short week with Cincinnati coming off of thereby, But 0:43:15.719 --> 0:43:19.440 I'm guessing that's baked into the line a little bit. 0:43:19.440 --> 0:43:22.000 I'm guessing if they both have equal rest, then San 0:43:22.040 --> 0:43:25.560 Francisco is maybe six six and a half point favorites. 0:43:25.640 --> 0:43:28.920 So this is going to be a fascinating game. I'm 0:43:28.960 --> 0:43:31.640 looking forward to watching this one, but I don't have 0:43:31.640 --> 0:43:32.879 any early leans right now. 0:43:33.800 --> 0:43:36.320 Pat any early leans in San Franz Cincy. 0:43:36.520 --> 0:43:38.960 No, not really. In Sam's take was pretty much spot on. 0:43:39.040 --> 0:43:40.840 First I saw this line, I thought it should be 0:43:40.840 --> 0:43:43.160 six or six and a half, but then I realized, yeah, 0:43:43.200 --> 0:43:45.759 Bengals coming off the bye, forty nine ers going into 0:43:45.800 --> 0:43:49.760 this game with short rest, and I guess I'm also 0:43:49.880 --> 0:43:52.520 feeling a little bit more confident in Joe Burrow's health 0:43:52.560 --> 0:43:54.520 now that he's made it through six games with that 0:43:54.600 --> 0:43:57.719 wounded calf and coming off a bye, so he could 0:43:57.760 --> 0:44:02.680 be pretty close to one hundred percent for this game. No, 0:44:02.680 --> 0:44:05.560 no leaning either way here, I think the line's pretty 0:44:05.560 --> 0:44:05.920 spot on. 0:44:06.520 --> 0:44:09.640 Bears go to Los Angeles to face the Chargers. Chargers 0:44:09.680 --> 0:44:11.719 are eight and a half point favorites minus one to 0:44:11.760 --> 0:44:13.480 ten on DK forty six and a half is the 0:44:13.520 --> 0:44:16.240 number one FanDuel plus three point fifty on the money 0:44:16.280 --> 0:44:19.319 line for the Bears. Pat Look, the Bears looked really 0:44:19.320 --> 0:44:22.359 good at home against a bad opponent, but at least 0:44:22.360 --> 0:44:25.360 they dominated a bad opponent. You don't know if we'renna 0:44:25.360 --> 0:44:26.759 get justin fields or not in this game. Do you 0:44:26.800 --> 0:44:29.560 see anything here with Chicago LA that's intriguing to you? 0:44:30.120 --> 0:44:33.400 Yeah, As our colleague Andrew Ericksson asked in a Slack 0:44:33.480 --> 0:44:36.640 conversation earlier this morning, should the Chargers be favored by 0:44:36.680 --> 0:44:39.480 eight and a half points out of anyone in the NFL? 0:44:40.680 --> 0:44:43.640 You know, especially against the Bears, who have staged some 0:44:43.800 --> 0:44:48.000 unexpected uprisings this season. They beat the Washington Commanders and 0:44:48.040 --> 0:44:52.480 the Las Vegas Raiders very handily, and they just demolished 0:44:52.480 --> 0:44:55.480 the Raiders with an undrafted rookie free agent making his 0:44:55.560 --> 0:45:02.279 first NFL start at quarterback, so man, Nonetheless, I'm still 0:45:02.280 --> 0:45:06.040 pretty reluctant to bet the Bears with an undrafted rookie 0:45:06.040 --> 0:45:09.200 free agent quarterback. So I'm probably just gonna lay off 0:45:09.200 --> 0:45:12.520 and I might take the under here since the Bears 0:45:12.600 --> 0:45:15.759 defense has been surprisingly respectable lately, Like I don't think 0:45:15.800 --> 0:45:18.919 that run defense is terrible, and we saw them sort 0:45:18.920 --> 0:45:22.440 of bottle up Josh Jacobs just this past Sunday, So 0:45:23.239 --> 0:45:26.320 this might be a little too tall of a total, 0:45:26.719 --> 0:45:28.439 but I don't really want to bet either side here. 0:45:29.120 --> 0:45:32.000 Sam Juranieri came on the show a couple weeks ago 0:45:32.040 --> 0:45:34.360 and told us, no matter what, always bet the Chargers 0:45:35.200 --> 0:45:37.799 in their favorites, especially in that first half, and then 0:45:38.320 --> 0:45:40.640 immediately in the second half, bet against them, and that 0:45:40.680 --> 0:45:43.040 has been a pretty good practice. Is that the path 0:45:43.200 --> 0:45:45.799 of least resistance here with this contest too, because I'm 0:45:45.840 --> 0:45:47.920 with Pat. This just feels like a lot of respect 0:45:47.920 --> 0:45:50.080 for the Chargers probably. 0:45:50.160 --> 0:45:53.000 I mean, I think if this stays at eight eight 0:45:53.040 --> 0:45:56.320 and a half, teasing the Chargers down to two and 0:45:56.360 --> 0:45:59.120 a half, is one of my favorite ways to play 0:45:59.600 --> 0:46:03.120 this game. Chicago's had a positive EPA per play in 0:46:03.480 --> 0:46:05.640 three of their last four games. They've had a positive 0:46:05.960 --> 0:46:09.080 rushing EPA per play in their last three games and 0:46:09.080 --> 0:46:10.120 four of their last five. 0:46:10.280 --> 0:46:14.279 But the Chargers rushing defense might be improving a little bit. 0:46:14.320 --> 0:46:18.560 They've had a rushing success rate allowed below thirty percent 0:46:18.960 --> 0:46:21.120 in each of the last two weeks against Dallas and 0:46:21.280 --> 0:46:22.000 Kansas City. 0:46:22.040 --> 0:46:22.960 Now, either of. 0:46:22.880 --> 0:46:27.360 Those teams are particularly spectacular in the rushing department, but 0:46:27.920 --> 0:46:30.680 it is good to see that that defense improving. 0:46:30.320 --> 0:46:30.799 A little bit. 0:46:30.880 --> 0:46:33.640 So I think I just want to stick with the 0:46:34.000 --> 0:46:35.880 Chargers as a potential teaser, like for. 0:46:35.920 --> 0:46:39.680 Right now, last one here Monday Night Football, talk about 0:46:39.680 --> 0:46:41.840 get right games. The Detroit Lions minus seven and a 0:46:41.880 --> 0:46:44.239 half at minus one ten on Fandel, we'll take on 0:46:44.320 --> 0:46:47.920 the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders also having QB problems 0:46:47.920 --> 0:46:50.040 of their own. Forty five is the number on Caesars, 0:46:50.040 --> 0:46:52.120 forty four and a half on DK, plus three hundred 0:46:52.120 --> 0:46:56.160 on the mL for Vegas. Sam. Does Detroit get back 0:46:56.200 --> 0:46:59.040 on track here and hand the Vegas Raiders their lunch? 0:47:00.120 --> 0:47:00.560 I think so. 0:47:00.840 --> 0:47:04.400 The Lions, I don't think are nearly as bad as 0:47:04.440 --> 0:47:08.960 their performance. Sunday indicates the Ravens had twenty eight points 0:47:09.000 --> 0:47:10.560 before the Lions. 0:47:10.120 --> 0:47:12.120 Had their first first down of the game. 0:47:13.120 --> 0:47:15.800 And to what we were just talking about, the Raiders 0:47:15.840 --> 0:47:18.480 just got the doors blown off with them by Tyler Bage. 0:47:18.760 --> 0:47:21.719 So I think the Raider the Lions are going to 0:47:21.800 --> 0:47:25.600 easily be able to go back home in prime time, 0:47:26.200 --> 0:47:30.560 show up with everything, and take care of their business. 0:47:31.120 --> 0:47:33.320 See he's such a backup. He even called him Tyler, 0:47:33.400 --> 0:47:39.720 not Tyson. That's how little respect Sam Hoppin has for Beige. Whoops. 0:47:39.719 --> 0:47:43.000 Oh no, Fitzy, let's close it out strong. Here your 0:47:43.040 --> 0:47:45.840 thoughts on this last contest? Here is Detroit Lions. This 0:47:45.960 --> 0:47:48.920 is look, we all expect the Lions to win, but 0:47:49.520 --> 0:47:52.439 is a bigger number here? Any concern? Yeah? 0:47:52.480 --> 0:47:54.200 I never need to find much of an excuse to 0:47:54.239 --> 0:47:59.640 bet against the Josh McDaniel Raiders, And with the Lions 0:47:59.680 --> 0:48:02.000 coming off this bad loss, I think they're going to 0:48:02.080 --> 0:48:04.200 be breathing fire for this game. 0:48:04.320 --> 0:48:06.120 So yeah, I'm taking the Lions. 0:48:05.880 --> 0:48:08.520 And laying the points as they should be breathing fire. 0:48:08.560 --> 0:48:10.840 Don't forget make sure you get those line alerts on 0:48:10.880 --> 0:48:13.880 the VP app. Use that game notifications tool so you 0:48:13.880 --> 0:48:15.960 can set it and watch them these lines as they move. 0:48:15.960 --> 0:48:17.680 We've talked about a lot of them today that might 0:48:18.360 --> 0:48:21.640 make some changes obviously in the days ahead. You should 0:48:21.640 --> 0:48:23.879 also subscribe to the channel so you can follow all 0:48:23.920 --> 0:48:26.000 the podcasts, all the content that goes on here at 0:48:26.040 --> 0:48:28.000 Betting Pros. And if you drop a comment below you 0:48:28.040 --> 0:48:30.440 could win that Robert Tunyan jersey and don't forget to 0:48:30.520 --> 0:48:34.880 join our NFL contest at Bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest. 0:48:34.920 --> 0:48:36.800 That'll do it for us, but the story of the 0:48:36.840 --> 0:48:39.520 game goes on for fits and Sam. I'm Joey P. 0:48:40.080 --> 0:48:43.360 We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to 0:48:43.400 --> 0:48:46.520 the Betting Pros podcast. Follow us on x and TikTok 0:48:46.520 --> 0:48:50.200 at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also 0:48:50.280 --> 0:48:50.840 subscribe to 0:48:50.880 --> 0:48:53.880 Our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.