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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. This meet Joey P joe P Zapia and

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Speaker 1: it's time to look ahead to week eight in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: See if there's some early values on the lines. By

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Speaker 1: Apocalypse is past us and everybody's playing this week. We've

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Speaker 1: got a full slate of games. Should be good times.

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Speaker 1: It's always good times with Sam Hoppin and Pat fitz

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Speaker 1: Morris join me here on the show. Gentlemen, let's just

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Speaker 1: jump right into it because we've got a ton of

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Speaker 1: games to go through today. And don't forget everybody. If

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Speaker 1: you want a chance to win that Robert Tunyan jersey,

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Speaker 1: make sure you drop a comment below, make sure you

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel, and that's all

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Speaker 1: you got to do to win again. We're always giving

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Speaker 1: away free stuff here. We love you people, So go

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Speaker 1: win this jersey. Go give it to Pat fitz Morris.

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you, Christmas present such a beautiful thing. I'll

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Speaker 1: pay for the shipping myself. I will do it. And

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Speaker 1: don't forget to click that little beltile coos ding for

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Speaker 1: notification so you know if you are the big winner

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Speaker 1: as well. We gotta start with Thursday night football. Short

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Speaker 1: week here underway for the Buffalo Bills, which is a

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Speaker 1: good thing. They don't have time to dwell on the

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Speaker 1: loss to the New England Patriots. Yeah, that's right, said

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Speaker 1: it a lost to the New England Patriots. The number

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Speaker 1: for this game is forty two and a half. So far,

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Speaker 1: it looks like Buffalo is seven point favorites, no doubt

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Speaker 1: they're that number. You can get a dk the over

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Speaker 1: under right now at FanDuel if you like Tampa for

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Speaker 1: the upset. It's plus three fifteen on the money line. Pat,

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Speaker 1: let's start with you with this one. Does Buffalo just

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Speaker 1: kind of put their head down, get back to work

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Speaker 1: and beat up on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that,

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Speaker 1: like frankly, watching Baker Mayfield throw completely into double coverage

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Speaker 1: all day long, it's a very dangerous sign of things

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Speaker 1: to come if that continues.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Baker Mayfield talked about, you know, big comeback

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Speaker 2: after their disappointing performance against the Lions in Week six

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Speaker 2: and then maybe even a more disappointing performance against a

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Speaker 2: worst opponent, the Falcons in Week seven.

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Speaker 3: But I actually do lean.

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Speaker 2: Towards the Buccaneers here, Like, going into that loss to

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Speaker 2: the Falcons, the Buccaneers were seventeenth and the Massy Peabody

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Speaker 2: Power ratings and fifteenth in total DVOA.

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Speaker 3: So this is not a terrible team.

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Speaker 2: Granted they had a really disappointing performance against the Falcons,

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Speaker 2: but this Bill's offense has struggled to put points on

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Speaker 2: the board two straight weeks against the Giants and against.

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Speaker 3: Your Patriots shoe.

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Speaker 2: So like, I don't want to lay a touchdown with

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Speaker 2: the Bills to a decent team, even at home. Like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: they could go come in and blow out, blow out,

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Speaker 2: the Buccaneers blow their doors off.

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Speaker 3: But man, I'll take the touchdown.

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Speaker 1: Here, all right? Taking the touchdown? Sam, When you look

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Speaker 1: at this line, anything feel off to you, any early

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Speaker 1: value you might want to jump on.

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Speaker 4: I agree with fitz here. I think with the lower

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Speaker 4: total and the full seven and a half points you

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Speaker 4: can get with Tampa Bay, I'd be taking that. I'm

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Speaker 4: number looking for a reason to back Baker Mayfield. But

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Speaker 4: the Bills defense has struggled lately. Last week against the Patriots,

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Speaker 4: they allowed their highest success rate in high stp or

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Speaker 4: play in a game against a struggling New England offense

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Speaker 4: upflow pass rush has been good. We've seen them be

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Speaker 4: able to get to the quarterback even without blitzing. But

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay right now is the only team to have

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Speaker 4: had the same five starting players at o line for

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Speaker 4: every single snap this season. So I think that continuity

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Speaker 4: will help them and we'll be able to keep them

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Speaker 4: within a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: On Thursday night, the Los Angeles Rams are coming off

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Speaker 1: a loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They're going

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Speaker 1: to travel to the Cowboys coming fresh off thereby. The

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Speaker 1: number for this one is forty five. It feels about right.

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Speaker 1: Dallas six and a half point favorites, all these numbers

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Speaker 1: coming from FanDuel plus two forty on the money line

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Speaker 1: here for the Rams in the potential upset Sam. The

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Speaker 1: Cowboys have been a bit of an enigma. They got

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Speaker 1: their w a eaked one out there against the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: much of the chagrin of that lady in the stands.

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Speaker 1: But can they keep it rolling here and get two

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Speaker 1: in a row. Do you think the six and a

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Speaker 1: half is giving the Cowboys too much credit?

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Speaker 4: I don't think it's giving them too much credit. I've

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Speaker 4: made this Dallas by six points I think this number

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Speaker 4: is pretty close to spot and I don't see a

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Speaker 4: ton of value right now. The Rams have cooled off

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Speaker 4: a bit from their hot start. They don't have a

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Speaker 4: game with an offensive success rate over fifty percent since

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Speaker 4: that Week one game against the Seahawks. So I think

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Speaker 4: the Rams are starting to become what people expected heading

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Speaker 4: into the season. They're staying competitive in games, but they

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Speaker 4: just don't have the full firepower on offense and the

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Speaker 4: defense to be able to keep them in games. So

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Speaker 4: I think this number spot on right now. Don't see

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Speaker 4: a ton of value, but do think Dallas comes away.

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Speaker 5: With the win.

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Speaker 1: Pat to six and a half to me is giving

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys just to hair too much credit. And I

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Speaker 1: know the Rams struggled a little bit, you know last

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Speaker 1: game against Pittsburgh. There maybe a wake up call Daryl Henderson,

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Speaker 1: Royce Freeman we talked about on the Waiver Wire show

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Speaker 1: and fantasy pros picking up the slack in that backfield.

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Speaker 1: They's had a ton of injuries. With a little bit

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Speaker 1: more pract time and cohesion, can the Rams get back

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Speaker 1: on track and cover the six and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel sort of pulled back and forth between

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Speaker 2: something you just said Joe and something Sam just said.

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Speaker 2: It does feel like it's giving the Cowboys too much

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Speaker 2: credit to go up to six and a half in

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Speaker 2: this game. But Sam made the point that the Rams

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Speaker 2: have maybe reverted to being the team that we thought

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Speaker 2: they were going to be coming into the season. The

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Speaker 2: Rams are sort of in the class of the Arizona

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Speaker 2: Cardinals in that category teams that the first three weeks

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Speaker 2: of the season we were surprised at how plucky they

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Speaker 2: were and how competitive they were, and maybe in the

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Speaker 2: three or four weeks since then they have become more

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Speaker 2: of the tomato can that we thought they were going

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Speaker 2: to be early in the season. So yeah, I'm kind

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Speaker 2: of torn here. I don't see any value in this.

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Speaker 2: I'm probably just going to stay away.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit on the Rams side right now.

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Speaker 1: I think the six and a half is really interesting.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to watch this one though, because Cowboys

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Speaker 1: are a very public team. If people start betting them

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Speaker 1: up a little bit, maybe this number gets a little

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Speaker 1: bit more, if it gets a little higher than I'm

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Speaker 1: really on the Rams. I think the Cooper Cup, Phuk

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Speaker 1: and Akua think could that combination could cause some problems there,

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Speaker 1: Potentially for the Cowboys. Remember Trevon Diggs out for the year.

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Speaker 1: That's been a big loss. Has really showed itself in

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Speaker 1: a lot of these games. Gilmour not quite the same

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Speaker 1: player he was a few years ago. The Houston Texans

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Speaker 1: three and three. They're coming off of buye. So are

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Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers. Still winless on the season. Things are

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Speaker 1: not going well for the Panthers so far this year.

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Speaker 1: Right now, the Houston Texans are three point favorites in

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Speaker 1: this game. They are one fifty five on the money line,

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Speaker 1: those numbers at Draft Kings. The total is forty one

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Speaker 1: and a half. FITZI, I jumped on this one already,

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Speaker 1: and I jumped on the Houston side at the minus three.

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Speaker 1: I am really liking the culture shift, that change, the

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Speaker 1: positivity that's going on there. This is the battle of

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Speaker 1: the number one and two quarterback. Take it in the draft.

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are gonna write and

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Speaker 1: talk about that this week, But only one of those

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Speaker 1: two quarterbacks has looked really comfortable in the NFL so far,

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Speaker 1: and that guy is CJ. Stroud. He plays for the Texans.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of good vibes around the Texans right now.

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Speaker 2: And how far along they seem to be with their rebuild.

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Speaker 2: And you know, clearly, I think if the Panthers could

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Speaker 2: have a do over on the NFL Draft, they would

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Speaker 2: probably choose CJ.

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Speaker 3: Stroud and not Bryce Young.

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Speaker 2: The Texans have clearly been the better team, but if

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Speaker 2: you do look at the Massy Peabody rankings in this

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Speaker 2: it says that the Texans are about two and a

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Speaker 2: half points better on a neutral field. This game is

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Speaker 2: going to be a home game for the Panthers and

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Speaker 2: the Texans are favored by three, So that suggests maybe

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Speaker 2: there's a little bit of value on the Panthers as

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Speaker 2: a home dog here.

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Speaker 3: So I don't know if I can buy that.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you, Joe, Like, the Texans have been surprisingly

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Speaker 2: good this season, but I just don't think there's enough

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Speaker 2: value to bet them as a three point dog in Carolina.

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Speaker 1: All Right, Look, I understand home dogs are something we

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Speaker 1: always look for, but Sam, the Carolina Panthers have had

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Speaker 1: real struggles trying to get out of their own way,

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Speaker 1: and the Houston Texans, like, the Texans show up there,

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Speaker 1: and they've showed up on the road too, which is

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Speaker 1: something you know, sometimes these young teams tend to struggle

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Speaker 1: with It's one thing to play good at home, good

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Speaker 1: football at home. It's another thing to play good football

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Speaker 1: on the road. But the Texans have done that. So

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Speaker 1: what do you think about this line?

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Speaker 4: I'm with you, Joe. I think the Texans minus three

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Speaker 4: here is an awesome spot. I two took them this morning.

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Speaker 4: The Carolina defenses is not great. They're getting a little

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Speaker 4: bit healthier, but the Houston offensive line is getting healthier

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Speaker 4: as well. The Houston offense ranks sixth in passing EPA

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Speaker 4: for play, fourth and explosive pass rate. I don't think

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Speaker 4: Carolina has anyone that's going to be able to slow

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Speaker 4: them down. I think Houston has the coaching advantage as well,

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Speaker 4: with Demko Ryans making that culture shift like you mentioned,

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Speaker 4: and Bobby Slow on offense to you know, putting c. J.

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Speaker 4: Stroud in some great opportunities to perform. So I love

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Speaker 4: the Texans here. I think with both of them coming

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Speaker 4: off the buy, they'll have plenty of tact to bear.

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Speaker 4: Houston comes away.

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Speaker 5: With the victory.

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Speaker 1: Remember, if you're looking for early value, make sure you

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Speaker 1: go make your picks over on the betting pros app

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Speaker 1: get the best odds you possibly can and make those

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Speaker 1: picks count for a little bit more with our NFL

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Speaker 1: contest because we still got that rolling. So Sam and

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Speaker 1: I aren know the Texans already, we want to know

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Speaker 1: what you're in on. We want you to go ahead

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Speaker 1: and place your bets there and make sure every time

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Speaker 1: you make those picks you go and join our contest

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Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest or if you

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Speaker 1: have the app already and I know you do, just

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Speaker 1: go to the community tab, click on that bad Boy,

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Speaker 1: click on that NFL contest join and remember, if you

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Speaker 1: want to get on the fund, you don't even have

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Speaker 1: to be making bets, your just picks here. So if

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Speaker 1: wagering on sports is still not quite legal in your state,

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Speaker 1: this is a great opportunity to get your feet wet

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Speaker 1: in the market. Start testing things out, start learning things

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Speaker 1: because the winner is going to get at Jackson Smith

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Speaker 1: and Jigba Autograph Jersey. We're also doing weekly prizes, monthly

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Speaker 1: prizes again, make five picks a week, that's all you

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Speaker 1: got to do one hundred on the season to be

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Speaker 1: also pieces from Marswag, hats, t shirts, all of that

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Speaker 1: from Betting Pros and Fantasy pro So join the NFL

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Speaker 1: contest today at Bettingpros dot com Slash and FL Contest. Gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: next game. I know this one's gonna hit close to you, guys.

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Speaker 1: I also bet this one early. I have had enough

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Speaker 1: already of Jordan Love. It's over for me Christian Watson

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Speaker 1: coming out with that injury at the end of the game.

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Speaker 1: I immediately jumped on Minnesota in this one plus one

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Speaker 1: and a half. You can even get this again. That's

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Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen off FanDuel. I bet the Minnesota

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Speaker 1: Vikings at minus one z two, just outright to win

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Speaker 1: this game, because I feel like if they put on

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Speaker 1: a decent show tonight, this number might even shift a

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Speaker 1: little bit, maybe towards the Minnesota side some more. Forty

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Speaker 1: three and a half is the number, so personal aside

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Speaker 1: all business here. The Vikings have brought their A game

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Speaker 1: to Green Bay of late in the last few years.

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Speaker 5: Sam.

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Speaker 1: I know they don't have Justin Jefferson, but frankly, right now,

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Speaker 1: my faith in Jordan Love and this Packers offense is

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Speaker 1: really low. So I like Minni and I like him.

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Speaker 1: Right now, what do you think, Sam.

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Speaker 5: Joe, you and I are some patiko this morning?

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Speaker 4: It seems because I mean, first of all, this is

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Speaker 4: the bummer bull. I mean, both of these teams are

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Speaker 4: trending in the wrong direction. Green Bay essentially just gets

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Speaker 4: home field advantage here. Vegas seemingly makes it that these

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Speaker 4: are some even teams on an even field. But I

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Speaker 4: think the Vikings offense is the best unit here. Green

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Speaker 4: Bay's offense did have one of its better days offensively.

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Speaker 4: It was the first time since Week two with a

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Speaker 4: positive EPA per play against Denver, but again, they were

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Speaker 4: playing one of the worst defenses in the league and

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Speaker 4: still only managed seventeen points, and seven of those points

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Speaker 4: came off of a tip drill touchdown. So I think

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Speaker 4: Minnesota is able to come into Green Bay, much to

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Speaker 4: my chagrin, and pull away an upset victory.

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Speaker 1: Looking right now, gentlemen, even this morning, right now, on

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Speaker 1: bet MGM, you can get the Minnesota Vikings at plus

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Speaker 1: money plus one oh five. The worms turning fits. What

258
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Speaker 1: do you say you want to come with me? And Sam?

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Speaker 1: Hold hands on the Island together.

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Speaker 2: I'm so rattled by this heel turn by Sam Hopp

261
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Speaker 2: and ripping off the mask to reveal purple face paints

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Speaker 2: very disheartening.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Vikings. We're gonna see this.

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Speaker 2: Line undoubtedly move based on how the Vikings play against

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Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, But a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 2: in their first game without Justin Jefferson, they did not

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Speaker 2: look very good against a suspect Chicago Bears defense like

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Speaker 2: that was a pretty alarming performance. So there are two

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Speaker 2: offenses here I don't really trust. I mean, it's certainly

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Speaker 2: hard to trust the Packers, especially if they're going to

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Speaker 2: be without Christian Watson and their rookie tight end Luke Musgrave,

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Speaker 2: both of whom left the Broncos game with injuries and

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Speaker 2: whose status is probably very much in doubt for this game.

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Speaker 2: But I just cannot take the Vikings as in a

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Speaker 2: row game unless I'm getting at least a field goal.

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Speaker 3: So I'm just it's a stay away for me.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm not going to blindly bet the Packers

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Speaker 2: in this one. Yeah, I can't have much faith in

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00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:14,640
Speaker 2: this team based on what we've seen from this offense.

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Speaker 2: Like you said that performance against the terrible Broncos defense

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Speaker 2: was most upsetting.

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Speaker 1: I'm all in all on the Vikings this in the Texans.

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Speaker 1: My two favorite plays that I said already. Bet you

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Speaker 1: can follow me at petting pros dot COM's last Joe

285
00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,400
Speaker 1: follow Them Slash fits, slash slam. See what those guys

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Speaker 1: are in on already. But I'm jumping on this bad

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Speaker 1: boy early now. One that it's tough to get a

288
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Speaker 1: beat on here the Battle of New York or New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: depending on how you look at it. The New York

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Speaker 1: Jets are going to travel to their own building to

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Speaker 1: take on the New York Giants, so split home field advantage.

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Speaker 1: However you want to look at this, Technically it's a

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Speaker 1: Giants home game, so theoretically more Giants fans in the stands,

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Speaker 1: you think probably the Giants are three point underdogs in this.

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Speaker 1: One thirty six and a half is the number if

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Speaker 1: you like the Giants on the money lines plus one

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00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,720
Speaker 1: thirty six on DK that's the best number you can

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Speaker 1: get right now. Fits the last two weeks. The Giants

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00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:09,000
Speaker 1: defense is really woken up. They're getting after the quarterback.

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Speaker 1: A bunch of sacks against Sam Howe last week I

301
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Speaker 1: know the Commanders give up a lot of sacks, but

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Speaker 1: Zach Wilson also won sometimes to take some sacks to

303
00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:17,880
Speaker 1: you holding the ball too long. He has played better

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Speaker 1: of late. This game is a bit of an enigma

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Speaker 1: to me. So I'm gonna look at you Fits for

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00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:23,800
Speaker 1: a little inside because I don't have a beat on

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00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,880
Speaker 1: this one yet. But do you see any early value

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Speaker 1: when it comes to Jets Giants?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Interesting, Joe.

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Speaker 2: Some of the games that are stay aways for me,

311
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Speaker 2: you feel very strongly about. I feel strongly about this

312
00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:36,760
Speaker 2: game where it's a stay away from you.

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Speaker 3: I'll take the Jets here.

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Speaker 2: And while the Giants defense has played much better in

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Speaker 2: the last few weeks, the Jets defense is clearly the

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Speaker 2: best unit in this.

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Speaker 3: Game, far and away.

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Speaker 2: And I just I don't think the Giants are going

319
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Speaker 2: to have much success moving the ball against this Jets defense.

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Speaker 3: And I think with.

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Speaker 2: Breist Hall and Garrett Wilson helping out Zach Wilson, I

322
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Speaker 2: think the Jets are going to be able to ratch

323
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Speaker 2: out enough points to cover in this one. I've already

324
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Speaker 2: bet it with the Jets, and I'm kind of interested

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Speaker 2: in the under here. This reminds me a little bit

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Speaker 2: of my under bet on the Minnesota Golden Gophers Iowa

327
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Speaker 2: Hawkeye's game this Sunday or this Saturday, which went off

328
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Speaker 2: at thirty and a half points. I looked at that

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Speaker 2: number and thought, I don't know if these teams are

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Speaker 2: getting at twenty and it comfortably finished under I think

331
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Speaker 2: this one might comfortably finish under this very low total.

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Speaker 2: This is going to be not the most esthetically pleasing

333
00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,960
Speaker 2: game you will ever watch in the NFL, but I

334
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Speaker 2: think the Jets win a low scoring battle here and

335
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Speaker 2: pretty comfortably.

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Speaker 1: I agree with you on that one fits. The one

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Speaker 1: appealing number to me is the under here, even though

338
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:45,800
Speaker 1: it's a low number. Sam, can you buy in on

339
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:47,360
Speaker 1: that or do you have a strong feeling about this

340
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Speaker 1: game one way or another?

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Speaker 4: It is hilarious because the first note I have written

342
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Speaker 4: under my bullet points here is this is like Iowa

343
00:15:54,240 --> 00:16:00,280
Speaker 4: Minnesota with these this is super low total. Yeah, the

344
00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:04,520
Speaker 4: Jets defense here is definitely the best unit. The Giants

345
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,160
Speaker 4: are expected to get left tackle Andrew Thomas Beck, which

346
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,400
Speaker 4: should help a little bit. And I think at this

347
00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:14,840
Speaker 4: point i'd probably want Tyrod Taylor to play for the Giants.

348
00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,720
Speaker 4: I think he has a little less variability in his

349
00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,440
Speaker 4: play than Daniel Jones. The Giants have put up two

350
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,800
Speaker 4: of their best offensive performances from an EPA per play

351
00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:29,800
Speaker 4: perspective in the past two weeks with Tyrod, so it'll

352
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,320
Speaker 4: be interesting to see what happens at the quarterback position

353
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Speaker 4: for the Giants. I've gone a little bit of back

354
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 4: and forth on this. I think I would take the

355
00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:43,280
Speaker 4: Jets if it's three points or better, but it is

356
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,720
Speaker 4: it is, I think going to be a very very

357
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 4: close game. I'm probably staying away for right now. But

358
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:54,080
Speaker 4: the I mean, yeah, nothing really inspires much confidence in

359
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,320
Speaker 4: these offenses. And I mean, when you've got a third

360
00:16:56,400 --> 00:17:00,480
Speaker 4: six favor you can't not bet the under right.

361
00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,080
Speaker 1: I feel like, like thirty six and a half, I

362
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 1: think now is a good time to jump on that

363
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:06,879
Speaker 1: because I think the more people time to marinate and

364
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,879
Speaker 1: go through these matchups. The defense, like I said, the

365
00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,520
Speaker 1: defensive Giants have played very well. Fits mentioned that the

366
00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:14,680
Speaker 1: just defense the best union of all four of these

367
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,560
Speaker 1: on the field, it feels like an under here and

368
00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:19,879
Speaker 1: if this number starts to shrink, then next thing you know,

369
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,480
Speaker 1: it's going to be a tougher one to make New

370
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,600
Speaker 1: England Patriots coming off a big upset of the Buffalo Bills,

371
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,400
Speaker 1: much to my chagrin. I want a high draft pick,

372
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:30,800
Speaker 1: that's all I want. I want them to not screw

373
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 1: up taking Marvin Harrison Junior. That's all I want. For Christmas.

374
00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:37,399
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins are gonna host the New England Patriots. The

375
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,000
Speaker 1: Dolphins are ten and a half point favorites in this

376
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,880
Speaker 1: one minus one oh five over on Fandle forty seven

377
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:43,560
Speaker 1: and a half is the number there as well. For

378
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,160
Speaker 1: New England to upset, it's plus four to ten. Sam.

379
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 1: I know the Patriots, you know, shocked a lot of

380
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,280
Speaker 1: people yesterday. I want to say that Buffalo is four

381
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:52,840
Speaker 1: minus four hundred. I think favorites in this one very

382
00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:56,119
Speaker 1: heavily favorite. Let's just put it to that New England

383
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:57,960
Speaker 1: goes here as an underdog as they should be here.

384
00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:01,439
Speaker 1: Miami kind of have some calls go their way last night,

385
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 1: but also didn't make enough plays at the end of

386
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,160
Speaker 1: the day. So what are your thoughts on Miami New England?

387
00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:06,000
Speaker 1: Is this number two big?

388
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 5: I think it is a little too big.

389
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 4: I made this Miami by seven and a half, and

390
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 4: obviously at minus ten that would indicate that I'm on

391
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 4: the New England side of things. When these teams met

392
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:23,239
Speaker 4: in Week two, Miami won by a touchdown. They were

393
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 4: only favored by a point and a half, but this

394
00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:29,880
Speaker 4: was obviously before their massive offensive explosion against the Broncos.

395
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,360
Speaker 4: I do think that this the under here is probably

396
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:38,159
Speaker 4: my strongest lean. New England's defense, I still think is

397
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 4: pretty good and that they have a chance to contain

398
00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 4: the Miami offense like they did in Week two. Miami's

399
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:49,880
Speaker 4: two losses this year have come to the Bills and

400
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 4: the Eagles, who are two of the better teams in

401
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 4: the league, and they pretty much handled their business against

402
00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 4: their weaker opponents. So I'm staying away from this right now.

403
00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:05,720
Speaker 4: Aside from the under, I think this is going to

404
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,200
Speaker 4: be a game in which both teams might struggle to

405
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 4: put up some points.

406
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,320
Speaker 1: I feel like Pat the danger in this game is

407
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 1: trying to take anything out of that first matchup. The

408
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,440
Speaker 1: first matchup was closer than I think that some people realize,

409
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 1: so I think that's going to have almost too much

410
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,879
Speaker 1: of an impact on people's thoughts. It's creeping into your

411
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 1: psyche too, when you're looking at this line.

412
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, a little bit Joe like I'm not going to

413
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 2: touch this game. We didn't think the Patriots could beat

414
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,800
Speaker 2: the Bills outright, and yet they did.

415
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:35,159
Speaker 1: So.

416
00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 2: Yes, Miami could certainly stop the gas pedal on this

417
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:42,560
Speaker 2: one and beat the Patriots by three or four touchdowns,

418
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,120
Speaker 2: like if they have it hitting on all cylinders offensively.

419
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 2: But man, I'm just not interested in laying double digit

420
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 2: points to Bill Belichick team, And like I don't want

421
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 2: to give Bill Belichick too much credit. The Patriots have

422
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 2: been pretty bad for the most part this year, but

423
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 2: nor am I in interested in in betting the Patriots

424
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,959
Speaker 2: against these Dolphins. So this is just one I'm happy

425
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:06,680
Speaker 2: to walk away from.

426
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 1: Fair enough, that makes a lot of sense. I think

427
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: this from an individual standpoint, a player prop standpoint, a

428
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 1: far more interesting game to wager on than the game itself. However,

429
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,760
Speaker 1: the next one, this should be interesting. The Tennessee Titans

430
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,199
Speaker 1: coming off of bye. Most likely, I would say that

431
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 1: we're gonna have Malik Willis playing quarterback here. Now this

432
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,119
Speaker 1: number starts out at thirty seven. I'm in on the

433
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 1: under here as Atlanta comes to town. I know Atlanta's

434
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,119
Speaker 1: four and three, but they've struggled on offense lately. Desmond

435
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 1: Ritter has had his issues here be Jhon Robinson clearly

436
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 1: had issues enough that he couldn't even get on the field.

437
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,439
Speaker 1: The Falcons are minus one point favorites at minus one

438
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:42,639
Speaker 1: ten over on DK. If you like Tennessee for the

439
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 1: upset at home, it's plus one oh five over at

440
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 1: points bet fits. Again, this one reeks of under to me,

441
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,199
Speaker 1: and I really it's kind of a tough sell for

442
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,120
Speaker 1: me to get off of that right now. And I'm

443
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 1: also concerned that if I don't jump on this number early,

444
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,640
Speaker 1: it's going to also shrink on me. What do you think?

445
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,639
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Joe, another game where the total is

446
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 2: very low but the under is crying out because Yeah,

447
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 2: I mean, like with Ryan Tannehill, this would be different.

448
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 2: I think we'd see another point or two added to

449
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 2: the total and another point.

450
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 3: Or two added to the Titans.

451
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 2: I think the Titans would probably be one or two

452
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 2: point favorites in this game if Ryan Tannehill were playing.

453
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 2: I understand why the Falcons are favored. Like Malik Willis

454
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 2: and the Titans offense could have a lot of trouble

455
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:32,240
Speaker 2: moving the ball against a really underrated Falcons defense, and

456
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 2: the Falcons has been. These are two terrific run defenses

457
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 2: in this game and two offenses that want to run

458
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 2: the ball. So like, I see this as being a

459
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:48,400
Speaker 2: very sluggishly paced game, Joe, another one where I don't

460
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 2: know if we're going to get to thirty points, let

461
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,800
Speaker 2: alone what thirty seven and a half or whatever it's

462
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 2: at right now?

463
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 1: With you on the under I am there, Sam, you

464
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 1: want to come hang out with us here? This feels

465
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,360
Speaker 1: like thirteen to ten to me? What do you think.

466
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 4: It very well could be? I mean, if we are

467
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 4: going to get Malik Willis, he has struggled in every

468
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 4: game that's he's played so far. I do like the

469
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 4: Falcon side of this. Their defense has been pretty pretty

470
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 4: good so far. Their eighth in passing success rate six

471
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 4: excuse me seventh and explosive pass rate first in rushing

472
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:33,239
Speaker 4: EPA per play, so they've been able to hold their

473
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 4: opponents pretty well. And I do think, you know, though

474
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 4: Desmond Ritter has not been phenomenal this year, he's going

475
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 4: to be better than whoever Tennessee trots out a quarterback,

476
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 4: assuming it's not Ryan Tannehill. So I'm I lean stronger

477
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 4: on the Falcon side of this than the under. But

478
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 4: again to you guys point, the Titans are second slowest

479
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 4: in the league in terms of neutral script and third

480
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 4: worst in no auto rates, So there's not going to

481
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 4: be a lot of offense in this game, as the

482
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 4: under suggests.

483
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 5: But like the Falcons in the spot.

484
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 1: The last time the Washington Commanders went to Philadelphia to play,

485
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 1: the Eagles got a lot closer than I think any

486
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: of us really expected it to be. Again another danger

487
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: I think of trying to copy and paste what happened

488
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago into what could happen in Week eight.

489
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 1: Washington is six and a half point underdogs at home

490
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: at Mice won ten. Always intriguing, but again they're giving

491
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 1: up so many sacks here, averaging over three and a

492
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 1: half per game. Sam, that's a lot, and especially with

493
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: the young quarterback who sometimes tried to do too much,

494
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 1: and there should have been some more picks for Sam

495
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 1: how yesterday in that game against the Giants that he

496
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 1: barely got away with. Forty four is the number four

497
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 1: this one on the under, forty three and a half

498
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: on DK and if you like Washington for the upsets

499
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: plus two thirty on the money line. The Eagles went

500
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: out there, handled their business against an incredible offense last

501
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 1: night Miami. I think this was a good confidence builder

502
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 1: for the Eagles who have been scuffling a little bit.

503
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: Does that confidence travel to Washington and do they cover

504
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: the six and a half? Sam?

505
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 5: I think it does.

506
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 4: The way that Sam Howell is taking sacks is just

507
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 4: it's not sustainable for having that offense. I mean, I

508
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 4: know you mentioned that the Giants defense has been playing better,

509
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 4: but man, they only got seven points against them and

510
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 4: just could not move the ball. They're they're taking sacks

511
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 4: that are are drive killers, and I think Philadelphia again

512
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 4: has started to show what they really can't do offensively.

513
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 4: The Washington defense is by no means as good as

514
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 4: we expected them coming into the season. They're currently twenty

515
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 4: seventh in EPA per played aloud, twenty eighth in early

516
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 4: down EPA per played allowed. So I think Philadelphia goes

517
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 4: into Washington, handles their business and covers this six and

518
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 4: a half.

519
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 1: All right, Pat, thoughts on this one? Two? Are you

520
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 1: so confident in the Eagles? Maybe you want to go

521
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: past the six and a half. Do you want to

522
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 1: go ahead and just look for some defensive props here

523
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 1: on some sacks because I know Bodmin and I are

524
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 1: going to be on that this week for sure. Yeah.

525
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 2: I mean, you've got the team that chased the NFL

526
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 2: single season sack record last year, going up against a

527
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 2: quarterback who has been sacked forty times already.

528
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: He has Son Reddick, I can handle Pat.

529
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, where is it?

530
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 2: Justin Fields was the most sacked NFL quarterback of twenty

531
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 2: twenty two with fifty five sacks. I mean, Sam Howll

532
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 2: is just fifteen behind that. We're not even in the

533
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 2: midway point of the.

534
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 1: Season yet that's suppressing.

535
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness.

536
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 2: So yeah, the Commanders did manage to take the Eagles

537
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 2: to overtime in Week four before losing thirty four to

538
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:43,479
Speaker 2: thirty one.

539
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 3: And Howell played probably his best game in that game.

540
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 2: Like he was really good in the second half in

541
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 2: the comeback against the Broncos, but not so great in

542
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 2: the first half of that game. He played a pretty

543
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 2: complete game against the Eagles. I don't think he's going

544
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 2: to be able to do it again. Like, and I

545
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 2: want to grab this while it's still under a touchdown.

546
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, give me the Eagles here.

547
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 1: The New Orleans Saints with a little extra time after

548
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 1: playing on Thursday night, they made it close, but they

549
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 1: fell short, unfortunately, at every opportunity to win that game.

550
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 1: Sort of the Colts this weekend, who came up short

551
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: as well. Some might say the referee screwed them out

552
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 1: on a ball that was probably unketchable, and they'd be

553
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,959
Speaker 1: right in my opinion. The Colts are one point favorites

554
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 1: at homes, so basically this is a pick him at

555
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 1: this point. Forty three and a half is the number

556
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 1: on DraftKings plus one h two over on DK for

557
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints' side. The best value on this

558
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: board right now is the Saints at that plus number.

559
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,879
Speaker 1: But Fitz, this is another one too where this reeks

560
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: of range of outcomes and there could be easily four

561
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 1: of them where one side blows the other out, or

562
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 1: it's a very high scoring affair, were very underwhelming affair.

563
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 1: These are the kind of games that scare the hell

564
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 1: out of me because they're hard to invest in. So

565
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: I would just look for the specific player props in

566
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 1: this one, I'd stay away from the lines. But do

567
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 1: you see something differently here?

568
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 2: I could not agree more with your assessment of that, Joe,

569
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 2: And if you took all the thirty two NFL teams.

570
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 3: I think the two that I have bet.

571
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 2: Least successfully this year so far would be the Colts

572
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,680
Speaker 2: and the Saints, so I'm delighted they're playing each other.

573
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 2: I can just completely ignore this game from a betting

574
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 2: perspective and focus on the other fifteen games on the slate.

575
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll pass. Maybe Sam's got a strong take

576
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 2: on this one. I'd love to hear it. I'm i

577
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 2: way to touch this game.

578
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: I'm waiting with baited breath. Sam, do you have anything

579
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: fun here that might crack us out of our duldrums

580
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 1: when it comes to these two teams because I'm with

581
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: fits on a weekly basis. I stare at the Saints.

582
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,719
Speaker 1: I stare at the Colts, especially the Colts without Anthony Richardson.

583
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: I find it much harder to gauge that because that

584
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 1: explosiveness is gone now. I mean, maybe Jonathan Taylor brings

585
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 1: a part of it back, but Richardson brought that explosiveness

586
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 1: where I always felt like, ooh, the overs really tempting

587
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: here because he makes those big plays and all of

588
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 1: a sudden puts you in positions those third and longs,

589
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: the third and fifteen becomes a first down. That stuff

590
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,919
Speaker 1: doesn't happen necessarily with Gardner Minshew, So what do you

591
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 1: about this contest?

592
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,439
Speaker 4: This is a really fascinating one, and I think to

593
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 4: your point, Joe, the range of outcomes on this one

594
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,640
Speaker 4: is incredibly wide, and I think for that reason, I'd

595
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 4: be looking to take one of these teams on an

596
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 4: alternate spread. You know, mine is five and a half,

597
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 4: my six and a half type thing to capture one

598
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 4: of those tail outcomes, because I think the Colts probably

599
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 4: have the much wider range of outcomes where they could

600
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 4: either play tremendously well like they did against a Browns

601
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 4: defense that was playing at historic levels. Obviously that they

602
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 4: didn't come away with the win there, but their offense

603
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 4: showed up and could do the same thing to the

604
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 4: Saints defense that has played pretty well this year.

605
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 5: But it's also Gardner.

606
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 4: Minshew like, I'm not going to trust it based off

607
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 4: of one game. I think the Colts have the biggest

608
00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 4: advantage from a coaching perspective. I think Shane Stikeen has

609
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 4: done phenomenal this year with his decision making and play calling,

610
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 4: but the SAME's defense is still really good, so I

611
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 4: don't have an early lean on this game right now,

612
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 4: I'd be looking at again what I said that some

613
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 4: of the alt spreads probably on the cult side of things.

614
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can understand that, and that approach is the

615
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 1: best way to make money off this game. Sam is

616
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 1: one hundred percent right. Let's see if we can make

617
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 1: some money on the next one.

618
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 4: Here.

619
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: The Jacksonville Jaguars coming off a big Thursday Night football victory.

620
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence despite that knee injury, Sam, he looks real

621
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 1: good running the football all round, so he's got a

622
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 1: little extra time arrest, which is a big thing here.

623
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh coming off a big win of their own going

624
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 1: into LA. They brought all of their fan base with

625
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 1: them to man at that feel like a home game

626
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: in Los Angeles for the Steelers. Forty two is the

627
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 1: number for this one. Pittsburgh is two and a half

628
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 1: point underdogs at home minus one ten plus one eighteen

629
00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 1: over on FanDuel. Sam. We started this season off one

630
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: of my favorite beats in Week one was Pittsburgh home dog,

631
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 1: and I was all in and for them to cover

632
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: that number. They did not. They got their doors blown off.

633
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: Is it time that we can start feeling comfortable again

634
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: with going and attacking the Pittsburgh Steelers as home underdogs

635
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: being a very dangerous thing, and maybe go right to

636
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: the money line at plus one eighteen on this. I

637
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: want to say yes. I feel like you want to

638
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 1: say yes too. Say yes, Sam, I don't.

639
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 4: Know what Mike Tomlin does in his spare time that

640
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 4: he's got this Pittsburgh Steelers team where it is right now.

641
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 4: I mean like they are winning games that nobody's expecting

642
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 4: them to win the game against Baltimore, the game this

643
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 4: past weekend, and I really like the Jaguars here. Pittsburgh

644
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 4: I think is a team similar to New Orleans, where

645
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 4: they get success from their defense, but the offense sputter

646
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 4: is quite a bit. To your point, Jacksonville is going

647
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 4: to get ten days of rest. Trevor Lawrence looks really good,

648
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 4: especially running the ball, despite going into that Thursday night

649
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 4: game against the Saints with that knee injury. So I

650
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 4: think that Jacksonville is going to be able to handle

651
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 4: their business here and Mike Tomlin's voodoo magic will wear off.

652
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 5: For this one.

653
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 1: Look, it's very sensible of you, Sam. I guess I'm

654
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: betting here a little bit more with my heart than

655
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: my head, which probably is going to get me in trouble.

656
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 1: But fits they have one two huge, get found a

657
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: way to win, and sometimes that starts to build a

658
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: little confidence. They do get after the quarterback too, that's

659
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 1: a good thing.

660
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 5: I know.

661
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 1: There's a lot of deficits here when you look at

662
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 1: the numbers for the Pittsburgh Steelers this year on defense,

663
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: it's something we're not used to seeing. But let's not

664
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 1: pretend like Jacksonville is perfect either on their defensive side

665
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 1: of the football. So how do you see this game?

666
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: Do you see the same value I do on Pittsburgh early?

667
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 2: I do, Joe, And of course Sam is the hardcore

668
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 2: numbers guy, so he's got to go where the numbers

669
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 2: lead him. And the numbers will tell you that the

670
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 2: Steelers have no business watching ever being four and two

671
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 2: right now because they have not been a good team

672
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 2: this year. And meanwhile, the Jaguars have won four straight.

673
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 2: They've averaged twenty nine points a game during that stretch.

674
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 2: But Joe, you asked me yesterday who I thought was

675
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 2: gonna win the AFC North, and I told you the Steelers,

676
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 2: and you like laughed, and I said, like, I mean,

677
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 2: I have immense faith in Mike Tomlin, maybe way too

678
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 2: much faith, Like I feel like eventually the Steelers are

679
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 2: going to start playing better, especially on defense, because I

680
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 2: think they have the personnel to be a lot better

681
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 2: on defense.

682
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 3: And I'm going to take the Steelers as a.

683
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 2: Home dog, and I'm gonna hit them on the money line, Joe,

684
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 2: as you recommended against a team that is an upstart

685
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 2: in the AFC Up and coming for certain, but I

686
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 2: don't think they are yet ready to be one of

687
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 2: the elite teams of the AFC. Like I wouldn't even

688
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 2: feel great about taking the Chiefs as a two and

689
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: a half point road favorite in Pittsburgh, So why do

690
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 2: I want to take the Jaguars at that number? So yeah,

691
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 2: I mean, I just like I can't back Jacksonville here.

692
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the money line with the Steelers.

693
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too. I will say this. I did laugh

694
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 1: in the morning, but after watching that game, I saw

695
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett changing plays at goal line. I saw him

696
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 1: starting to look more comfortable taking a little bit more

697
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 1: charge being a quarterback basically, which is something you really

698
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 1: didn't see in the first month of the season. It

699
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: just did not look like it was in a good

700
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: place and that's very encouraging, and that AFC North is

701
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 1: wide open. We're gonna talk about those teams kind of

702
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 1: in a row here as we go before we get

703
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 1: to them, though a few in between. The Cleveland Browns. Actually,

704
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 1: no Cleveland Brown is going to write to him. I

705
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 1: forgot Cleveland Brown's Seattle cleveand Brown's coming off a huge win.

706
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: Seattle eaked one out against the lesser opponent that really

707
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: they let hang around way too much in that game.

708
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 1: Forty and a half is the number for this one.

709
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 1: Seattle is two and a half point favorites at home

710
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 1: against Cleveland defense. Does travel pat the Cleveland Browns are

711
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 1: plus one thirty? Do we see PJ Walker in this game?

712
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 1: Or we backed into shann w So much intrigue going

713
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 1: on with the Cleveland Browns at Miles Garrett, who has

714
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 1: just been playing out of his mind so far in

715
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 1: the last few weeks. What are your thoughts on this

716
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: one here? Because this is also a matter of if

717
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 1: you believe enough in that Cleveland defense, then I think

718
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 1: that plus one thirty is a tremendous value right here.

719
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm guessing we do see Deshaun Watson in this one, Joe,

720
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 2: since he was cleared to play and return, but they

721
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 2: held him out. Kevin Stefanski didn't want to take any chances.

722
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 2: So this is a really interesting, fun, fascinating matchup between

723
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 2: two teams that I think are playoff caliber but maybe.

724
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 3: Not Super Bowl caliber.

725
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 2: And I looked at this one pretty hard at this morning,

726
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 2: trying to find value on either the side, like a

727
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 2: side or a total. Just couldn't do it. I think

728
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 2: these the line and the total are both spot on.

729
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 3: So I'm not going to touch this one.

730
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 1: Sam, I'm going right for the Cleveland Browns. I'm going

731
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 1: right for that. I just something about the Seahawks. I

732
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: just don't buy into any toughness there. I don't think

733
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 1: that home field advantage is the same thing it was

734
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 1: a few years ago. I think that's kind of that

735
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: ship has sailed a little bit as well on them.

736
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 1: What do you think about this game or are you

737
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 1: seeing it differently?

738
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, Joe, we are no longer some pazzi coo.

739
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 1: We had a good run, Sam, we had a good run.

740
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 4: I'm with the Seahawks here. Their defense continues to play

741
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 4: incredibly well. They haven't allowed to success rate over forty

742
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,919
Speaker 4: six percent in each of their last four games. Now

743
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 4: you can look at the quality of the opponents that

744
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 4: they're playing.

745
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 1: Glad you're waging that. That's what I want to talk about.

746
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:33,240
Speaker 1: Uh huh.

747
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 4: What about the Browns offense inspires you to think that

748
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 4: they're any better than those those teams that they played.

749
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 4: They they're one of the worst offenses in the league

750
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:48,240
Speaker 4: despite you know, regardless of who's at quarterback, and clearly

751
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 4: there's something weird going on with us, this whole Deshaun

752
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 4: Watson situation. You know, they were in this competitive game

753
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 4: and they were trying to play the long game for

754
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 4: Watson's health, but they didn't put him in. So it's

755
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 4: just a really weird situation.

756
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 5: I think.

757
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 4: I think the Seahawks will get dk Metcalf back in

758
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 4: this game as well. So I think while the Seahawks

759
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 4: are on the better side of the three points, I'm

760
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 4: taking them in this game.

761
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 1: All right. I'm standing alone here with my Cleveland Browns.

762
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 1: They keep finding ways to win. And that's again, defense

763
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: travels at the end of the day. I think that's

764
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 1: a look for not in You're right, Seattle's defense, I've

765
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 1: played well, it's just It's hard for me to believe

766
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: in them and the opponents they've played. You know, when

767
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: you go beat the forty nine ers offense with your defense,

768
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 1: then I'm that perks my interest. Kansas City, man, they

769
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 1: looked pretty good. They put up a ton of points.

770
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey, Patrick Mahomes looked unstoppable. Seven and a half

771
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,839
Speaker 1: point road favorites going into Denver. That's the best number

772
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:57,800
Speaker 1: you get right now. Forty five and a half is

773
00:36:57,800 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 1: the number for this game, plus three ten for the

774
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 1: Broncos on the money line. You could let that one go, folks.

775
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: The question is I mean, I'm looking at this, Sam,

776
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: I feel like the seven and a half just isn't enough.

777
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: I mean, what am I not seeing here when it

778
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 1: comes to Kansas City and Denver?

779
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 4: I have no idea. I'm back with you again. I

780
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 4: made Kansas City ten point favorites, and the Chiefs were

781
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 4: ten and a half point favorites when they played just

782
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,839
Speaker 4: two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. But now they're

783
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 4: on the road. They did win by eleven, so they

784
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 4: barely covered that spread. But it's basically using the same

785
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 4: line as that game and switching the one and a

786
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 4: half points for home field advantage over to the Broncos.

787
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 4: But the Chiefs defense continues to play incredibly. They haven't

788
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 4: allowed more than twenty one points in a game this season.

789
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 4: The Chiefs offense did spun it a little bit in

790
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 4: that second half against.

791
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 5: The Chargers, and I don't know.

792
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 4: I think the Chiefs are the best team in the

793
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 4: NFL right now. Their offense is not at its full potential,

794
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 4: but man, I just think they're waiting for that game

795
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 4: to explode and this is going to be the one.

796
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, Denver's one of the worst past defenses

797
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 1: in the league. Mahomes look really comfortable last this best

798
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:22,959
Speaker 1: Sunday throwing the football again to Travis Kelcey all day long.

799
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: I get a little me Cole Harbin back now, which

800
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 1: is pretty fun. But I don't know, Pat, I'm looking

801
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 1: at this and I expect it in my mind double digits,

802
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,439
Speaker 1: Like I'm thinking ten and a half and at seven

803
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: and a half, and I just want to lock that

804
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: in now because I'm worried that more time goes on,

805
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 1: this is going to continue to grow. Do you have

806
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: that same concern.

807
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:41,879
Speaker 2: I bet the Chiefs already, Joe, it is going to grow.

808
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 2: I think we will get like this maybe is a

809
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 2: chance to get to double digits. I wouldn't be surprised

810
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 2: to see it finishing, closing it like Chiefs minus nine

811
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 2: and a half or so. Look, the Chiefs have beaten

812
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 2: the Broncos in sixteen straight games. This goes back to

813
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 2: before the start of Patrick Mahomes career twenty fifteen. Like

814
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 2: the Broncos in this rivalry are like Sisyphis trying to

815
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:08,720
Speaker 2: push the boulder up the hill, like they just can't

816
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 2: do it. It just keeps rolling back down over them.

817
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, give me the Chiefs all day here.

818
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,919
Speaker 1: I love a good Sisyphis reference this early in the morning.

819
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: It's my favorite thing. Next one here, the Baltimore Ravens

820
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: just an absolute butt kicking. They laid on the Detroit Lions.

821
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 1: Detroit was flying high. They got checked. They got checked

822
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 1: hard too. Eight and a half is the number for this.

823
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:33,800
Speaker 1: When Baltimore Ravens our favorites against Arizona, that feels again

824
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 1: also kind of like a small number. I know the

825
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:38,880
Speaker 1: Ravens have been frustrating Pat sometimes. Forty four is the

826
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 1: over under Arizona for the upset plus three thirty. But

827
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: I keep coming back at minus one ten at eight

828
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 1: and a half, I'm pretty comfortable with that number, especially

829
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: if this is the new Ravens that we're going to see.

830
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,280
Speaker 1: Where they are. You know, Lamar is running the football

831
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 1: over the place being Lamar again. You're seeing Odell healthy

832
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 1: on the field. You're seeing Andrews look like Andrews A.

833
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 1: Flowers has been really good, and look some of the

834
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:04,919
Speaker 1: running backs like Gus Edwards made a big play there.

835
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 1: If they can get that to travel and Arizona, goodness

836
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 1: knows that offensive line is bad. What do you think

837
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 1: you think this eight and a half is a gimme?

838
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 2: I two have bet the Ravens early, Joe and I

839
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 2: didn't feel as good betting the Ravens as I did

840
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 2: betting the Chiefs. For me, it is less about my

841
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 2: confidence in the Ravens repeating the sort of performance they

842
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 2: had against the Lions than it is in betting against

843
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:31,760
Speaker 2: the Cardinals, who I think have after the plucky start

844
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 2: the first three weeks of the season kind of reverted

845
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 2: to what we thought they were going to be, which

846
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 2: is basically the biggest doormat in the NFL. That was

847
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:43,800
Speaker 2: our expectation for them before the start of the season,

848
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 2: Cardinals have lost four straight games by double digits, failed

849
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 2: to cover in all four of those games. Yeah, and

850
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 2: the Ravens are just humming right now. So even I

851
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 2: think if the Ravens offense were to have some hiccups

852
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 2: in this game, they could still cover the number pretty

853
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 2: easily because I don't see the Cardinals doing much business

854
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 2: against the Baltimore defense.

855
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 1: Okay, Sam, your thoughts on this one. Baltimore had a

856
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:10,840
Speaker 1: really strong showing. Am I overrating what I saw Sunday

857
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 1: too much?

858
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 4: I don't think so. I mean, the Lions were a

859
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 4: great team, and they blew the doors off them offensively.

860
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 4: They shut the offense of the Lions down, and so

861
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 4: I think Baltimore is easily going to go into Arizona

862
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 4: and cover this spread. I mean, they're getting healthier on offense,

863
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 4: they have their full set of receivers now that I

864
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 4: don't think they're quite as talented as they were hoping

865
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 4: to going into the season. But as this offense starts

866
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 4: to click, and I think we saw, you know, sort

867
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 4: of the first iteration of that Lamar played at an

868
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 4: MVP level like we've seen him play in the past,

869
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 4: and I don't think this Cardinals defense is going to

870
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 4: be able to slow them down whatsoever.

871
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:00,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think the offensive line is gonna slow

872
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 1: down anybody either. Let me tell you they are a joke.

873
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,919
Speaker 1: Cincinnati at San Fran. We'll see what San Fran does tonight.

874
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey is slated to play in that Monday night game.

875
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 1: Don't forget you could always check us out Monday nights,

876
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: so we're always doing five pm Eastern bop and I

877
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 1: going through the best bets for Monday Night football and

878
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football Thursdays at five pm Eastern.

879
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 5: Two.

880
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 1: You got the San Francisco minus five and a half.

881
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 1: That feels about right to me. Minus one ten on

882
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 1: DK forty five and a half is the number the

883
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 1: Bengals had that buy, hopefully a little even healthier for

884
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow plus two ten and for t Higgins two

885
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 1: plus two ten for the Bengals here for the upset,

886
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 1: I don't think the upset is not in play here, Sam.

887
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:40,880
Speaker 1: I know the forty nine ers on paper are that

888
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 1: better team, but it's not always the best team that wins.

889
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 1: The team to plays the best. So what are your

890
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 1: thoughts here as San Francisco coming off that loss. I

891
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 1: know we have to see what they bring tonight against Minnesota,

892
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:53,720
Speaker 1: but is there any early value before that game happens.

893
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:56,919
Speaker 4: I don't think so. I honestly have no lean here

894
00:42:57,040 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 4: right now. I think this number is spot on. Had

895
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 4: San Francisco's five and a half point favorite, so I

896
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:05,839
Speaker 4: think it's about in line what I was expecting. I mean,

897
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 4: if you do like Cincy, I don't think this is

898
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 4: a bad spot because San Francisco will be playing on

899
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 4: a short week with Cincinnati coming off of thereby, But

900
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:19,440
Speaker 4: I'm guessing that's baked into the line a little bit.

901
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 4: I'm guessing if they both have equal rest, then San

902
00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 4: Francisco is maybe six six and a half point favorites.

903
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 4: So this is going to be a fascinating game. I'm

904
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 4: looking forward to watching this one, but I don't have

905
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:32,879
Speaker 4: any early leans right now.

906
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:36,320
Speaker 1: Pat any early leans in San Franz Cincy.

907
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 3: No, not really. In Sam's take was pretty much spot on.

908
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 2: First I saw this line, I thought it should be

909
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 2: six or six and a half, but then I realized, yeah,

910
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,759
Speaker 2: Bengals coming off the bye, forty nine ers going into

911
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:49,760
Speaker 2: this game with short rest, and I guess I'm also

912
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,520
Speaker 2: feeling a little bit more confident in Joe Burrow's health

913
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 2: now that he's made it through six games with that

914
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 2: wounded calf and coming off a bye, so he could

915
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 2: be pretty close to one hundred percent for this game. No,

916
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 2: no leaning either way here, I think the line's pretty

917
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 2: spot on.

918
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 1: Bears go to Los Angeles to face the Chargers. Chargers

919
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 1: are eight and a half point favorites minus one to

920
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 1: ten on DK forty six and a half is the

921
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,240
Speaker 1: number one FanDuel plus three point fifty on the money

922
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,319
Speaker 1: line for the Bears. Pat Look, the Bears looked really

923
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:22,359
Speaker 1: good at home against a bad opponent, but at least

924
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 1: they dominated a bad opponent. You don't know if we'renna

925
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 1: get justin fields or not in this game. Do you

926
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 1: see anything here with Chicago LA that's intriguing to you?

927
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, As our colleague Andrew Ericksson asked in a Slack

928
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 2: conversation earlier this morning, should the Chargers be favored by

929
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 2: eight and a half points out of anyone in the NFL?

930
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 2: You know, especially against the Bears, who have staged some

931
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 2: unexpected uprisings this season. They beat the Washington Commanders and

932
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 2: the Las Vegas Raiders very handily, and they just demolished

933
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 2: the Raiders with an undrafted rookie free agent making his

934
00:44:55,560 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 2: first NFL start at quarterback, so man, Nonetheless, I'm still

935
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 2: pretty reluctant to bet the Bears with an undrafted rookie

936
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 2: free agent quarterback. So I'm probably just gonna lay off

937
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 2: and I might take the under here since the Bears

938
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:15,759
Speaker 2: defense has been surprisingly respectable lately, Like I don't think

939
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,919
Speaker 2: that run defense is terrible, and we saw them sort

940
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 2: of bottle up Josh Jacobs just this past Sunday, So

941
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:26,320
Speaker 2: this might be a little too tall of a total,

942
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:28,439
Speaker 2: but I don't really want to bet either side here.

943
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 1: Sam Juranieri came on the show a couple weeks ago

944
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:34,360
Speaker 1: and told us, no matter what, always bet the Chargers

945
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 1: in their favorites, especially in that first half, and then

946
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 1: immediately in the second half, bet against them, and that

947
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 1: has been a pretty good practice. Is that the path

948
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,799
Speaker 1: of least resistance here with this contest too, because I'm

949
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 1: with Pat. This just feels like a lot of respect

950
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 1: for the Chargers probably.

951
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 4: I mean, I think if this stays at eight eight

952
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 4: and a half, teasing the Chargers down to two and

953
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 4: a half, is one of my favorite ways to play

954
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 4: this game. Chicago's had a positive EPA per play in

955
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 4: three of their last four games. They've had a positive

956
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 4: rushing EPA per play in their last three games and

957
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 4: four of their last five.

958
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:14,279
Speaker 5: But the Chargers rushing defense might be improving a little bit.

959
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 4: They've had a rushing success rate allowed below thirty percent

960
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 4: in each of the last two weeks against Dallas and

961
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 4: Kansas City.

962
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 5: Now, either of.

963
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 4: Those teams are particularly spectacular in the rushing department, but

964
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 4: it is good to see that that defense improving.

965
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:30,799
Speaker 5: A little bit.

966
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 4: So I think I just want to stick with the

967
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 4: Chargers as a potential teaser, like for.

968
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 1: Right now, last one here Monday Night Football, talk about

969
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 1: get right games. The Detroit Lions minus seven and a

970
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 1: half at minus one ten on Fandel, we'll take on

971
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders also having QB problems

972
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 1: of their own. Forty five is the number on Caesars,

973
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 1: forty four and a half on DK, plus three hundred

974
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 1: on the mL for Vegas. Sam. Does Detroit get back

975
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 1: on track here and hand the Vegas Raiders their lunch?

976
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 5: I think so.

977
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:04,400
Speaker 4: The Lions, I don't think are nearly as bad as

978
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 4: their performance. Sunday indicates the Ravens had twenty eight points

979
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 4: before the Lions.

980
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 5: Had their first first down of the game.

981
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:15,800
Speaker 4: And to what we were just talking about, the Raiders

982
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 4: just got the doors blown off with them by Tyler Bage.

983
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 4: So I think the Raider the Lions are going to

984
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 4: easily be able to go back home in prime time,

985
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 4: show up with everything, and take care of their business.

986
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,320
Speaker 1: See he's such a backup. He even called him Tyler,

987
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:39,720
Speaker 1: not Tyson. That's how little respect Sam Hoppin has for Beige. Whoops.

988
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 1: Oh no, Fitzy, let's close it out strong. Here your

989
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 1: thoughts on this last contest? Here is Detroit Lions. This

990
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 1: is look, we all expect the Lions to win, but

991
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:52,439
Speaker 1: is a bigger number here? Any concern? Yeah?

992
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:54,200
Speaker 2: I never need to find much of an excuse to

993
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 2: bet against the Josh McDaniel Raiders, And with the Lions

994
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 2: coming off this bad loss, I think they're going to

995
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 2: be breathing fire for this game.

996
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm taking the Lions.

997
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 1: And laying the points as they should be breathing fire.

998
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 1: Don't forget make sure you get those line alerts on

999
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,880
Speaker 1: the VP app. Use that game notifications tool so you

1000
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 1: can set it and watch them these lines as they move.

1001
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 1: We've talked about a lot of them today that might

1002
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 1: make some changes obviously in the days ahead. You should

1003
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:23,879
Speaker 1: also subscribe to the channel so you can follow all

1004
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 1: the podcasts, all the content that goes on here at

1005
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 1: Betting Pros. And if you drop a comment below you

1006
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 1: could win that Robert Tunyan jersey and don't forget to

1007
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 1: join our NFL contest at Bettingpros dot com slash NFL contest.

1008
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:36,800
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the

1009
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 1: game goes on for fits and Sam. I'm Joey P.

1010
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:43,360
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to

1011
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros podcast. Follow us on x and TikTok

1012
00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 1: at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also

1013
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:50,840
Speaker 1: subscribe to

1014
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,880
Speaker 2: Our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.