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Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.

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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's me Joey p

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Speaker 1: joe Pisapia, and it's time to look ahead for Week

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Speaker 1: nine in the NFL. And of course to help me

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Speaker 1: do it are my friends Matt and Pat. That's right,

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Speaker 1: Pat Fitzmore is Matthew Friedman. We are here after a

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Speaker 1: wild and wacky Week eight. Finally we got a lot

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Speaker 1: of scoring in the NFL. Didn't come from all the

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Speaker 1: games we thought it might, and it came more from

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Speaker 1: games that we thought it wouldn't. But my goodness, it

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Speaker 1: was certainly a strange day in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: A strange betting day too.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure a lot of people won some overs and

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Speaker 1: a lot of people lost some unders, I would.

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Speaker 2: Imagine as well. But that's all in the past.

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Speaker 1: We live in the present. We live in the future

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Speaker 1: and the future and the present. I've come together for

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Speaker 1: Week nine in the NFL, so we're gonna start taking

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Speaker 1: a look at it here on Bettingpros dot com. Don't

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Speaker 1: forget to subscribe to the YouTube channel and click that

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Speaker 1: little bell for notifications until it goes ding.

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Speaker 2: That's what you need to do, and of.

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Speaker 1: Course too, we're brought to you by the sleeper apps,

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Speaker 1: so make sure you go ahead and check out that

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Speaker 1: over undergame we got going and bet MGM, the king

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Speaker 1: of sports books, always the sponsor of the show. Download

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Speaker 1: the bet MGM app right now, and gentlemen might as

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Speaker 1: well just kick things right off here with Thursday Night football?

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Speaker 2: Are you ready?

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Speaker 1: The seven and oh Philadelphia Eagles will take on the

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Speaker 1: lowly Houston Texans at one five and one. The number

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Speaker 1: is huge. It is thirteen thirteen points for the Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: Eagles here in this one forty three is the over under.

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Speaker 1: If you like Houston to upset on the money line,

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Speaker 1: you're crazy, but it's plus five fifty. I know anything

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Speaker 1: can happen, but let's not get crazy here with ourselves.

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Speaker 1: So Matthew Friedman, let's start with you. The number thirteen?

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Speaker 1: Is this going to grow over the days ahead? Is

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Speaker 1: it time to lock this in? How do you feel

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Speaker 1: about the Eagles Houston on Thursday night?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's already you mentioned BETMGM. It's already thirteen and

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Speaker 3: a half at bet MGM. And also why I intro

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Speaker 3: the show it went at a half point. Yeah, also

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Speaker 3: also that number at DraftKings. I mean, if this gets

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Speaker 3: to fourteen, I might consider Houston, but even then I

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Speaker 3: don't want to do it. The thing is, like I

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Speaker 3: feel I've been stretching the power ratings to try to

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Speaker 3: get this number closer to the spread, and I still

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Speaker 3: can't do it. So I'm theoretically showing some value on Houston,

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Speaker 3: but there's no way that I'm absolutely valid like valuing

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Speaker 3: them as a team that can compete and really cover

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Speaker 3: the spread. This is a matchup of the trenches, and

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Speaker 3: Houston is just absolutely getting destroyed offensive line and defensive line.

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Speaker 3: I don't think they match up well. And we're reaching

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Speaker 3: that midway point of the season where weird things start

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Speaker 3: to happen, just in terms of you know, like players

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Speaker 3: getting benched because teams just realizing that they're not in

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Speaker 3: it at all. And so I think I understand this number,

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Speaker 3: and I'm probably just going to say, all right, I

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Speaker 3: know my number theoretically shows value on Houston, but I

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Speaker 3: just I can't get there because I think the reality

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Speaker 3: of it is we continue to see this number move

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Speaker 3: towards fourteen.

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Speaker 1: I would agree with you, I think it's going going

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Speaker 1: to grow, especially after watching Houston refuse to tackle anybody

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Speaker 1: in that game. I don't care if it was Dereck

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Speaker 1: Henry or Hillier on Sunday. They didn't want any piece

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Speaker 1: of anyone. And it wasn't like they didn't know where

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Speaker 1: the ball was going, for goodness sakes, and they still

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Speaker 1: just had zero interest in stopping. We're trying to contain

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Speaker 1: and now I'm going to get the Eagles, which I

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Speaker 1: have a whole lot more weapons that the Texans, a

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Speaker 1: whole lot more capable quarterback fits.

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Speaker 2: I know it's a short week.

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Speaker 1: Thursday night gets weird, especially when you have to travel,

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Speaker 1: but this one seems like it has blowout all over it.

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Speaker 4: It does, Joe, But can I point out that of

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Speaker 4: the thirteen games this week, we have eight road favorite

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Speaker 4: road Yeah, road favorites eight of the thirteen games, and

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Speaker 4: it has been a tough year for favorites to begin with.

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Speaker 4: And you know, these road favorites, like home underdogs, are

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Speaker 4: always such a good value traditionally. But rather than pick

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Speaker 4: and choose, I think I'm just gonna make like a

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Speaker 4: one unit bet on every home underdog rather than trying

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Speaker 4: to because like, look at this game you mentioned, is

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Speaker 4: there any.

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Speaker 5: Look ahead value.

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Speaker 4: There absolutely isn't even though I've got this at twelve.

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Speaker 4: So technically there is a little bit of value as

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Speaker 4: with Friedman, like I, you know, am gonna come out

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Speaker 4: on the Houston side projecting this. We're not factoring in

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Speaker 4: the trade deadline, Like what could happen. The Texans could

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Speaker 4: easily move Brandon Cooks on Tuesday, they could move other pieces.

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Speaker 4: They're clearly in a rebuild that I think they're you know,

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Speaker 4: settled on the idea that Davis Mills probably is not

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Speaker 4: their quarterback of the future.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they they might move on here.

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Speaker 4: And you know, even though even though this number looks

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Speaker 4: like it's too big, you know, it's probably not too big.

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Speaker 4: And if I bet, it's only going to be the

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Speaker 4: blind faith in home underdogs.

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Speaker 3: Just to follow up on this really really quickly, I

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Speaker 3: think this number makes the most sense just in terms

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Speaker 3: of actual numbers, not like weird stuff happening in the season,

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Speaker 3: but actual numbers.

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Speaker 2: If we think that the Eagles are in that.

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Speaker 3: Top tier with the Bills and the Chiefs, and if

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Speaker 3: we think that Houston is just like not not just

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Speaker 3: the worst team in the league, but like clearly like

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Speaker 3: a tier below the second worst team in the league,

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Speaker 3: then this line makes more sense. I don't think we're

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Speaker 3: quite there yet, though. On either count.

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Speaker 1: It's hard because in the NFC, you know, you're the

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Speaker 1: opponents are not as good. You know, the AFC have

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Speaker 1: all those big dog qbs, right, you got the Josh Allens,

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Speaker 1: you got the Patrick Mahome, you got all these guys

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Speaker 1: who are just playing out of their mind, right, and

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Speaker 1: then you've got even Lamar Jackson, got these big time quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: In the NFC.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Washington Commanders are still kind of in

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Speaker 1: the mix. I mean, it's crazy to think about the

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Speaker 1: teams are still in the mix. The New Orleans has

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Speaker 1: been terrible, they're in the mix. Carolina Panthers, for God's sakes,

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Speaker 1: gonna put themselves in the mix yesterday. So it's just

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Speaker 1: really hard to gauge just how good the best of

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Speaker 1: the NFC is we start matching them even up against

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Speaker 1: the dregs of the AFC. But I think this one's

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Speaker 1: pretty clear. I think this one say, if I'm in

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Speaker 1: on this one early, let's go to the Los Angeles Chargers,

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Speaker 1: coming off of bye most likely without Mike Williams, though

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Speaker 1: they have Keenan Allen back hopefully Josh Palmer, we shall

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Speaker 1: see regardless of three point favorites in Atlanta, who is

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Speaker 1: somehow four and four? I'm not sure how we got here,

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Speaker 1: but here we are, folks. They are four and four

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Speaker 1: right now. Forty eight and a half is the number.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, the NFC is kind of wide open

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Speaker 1: and weird right now. If you like Atlanta to win

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Speaker 1: outrights plus one thirty five on the money line fits.

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Speaker 1: What do you think about this number here? Atlanta continues

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Speaker 1: to show up in games where you don't really think

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Speaker 1: they're going to Is this the latest in another string

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Speaker 1: of those kind of contests.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it might be Joe, And they would be seven

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Speaker 4: and one against the spread this year if they had

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Speaker 4: not let DJ Moore get behind them late in that

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Speaker 4: crazy Panthers Falcons game yesterday.

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Speaker 5: So you've got the.

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Speaker 4: Chargers traveling coast to coast for the early start game.

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Speaker 4: Never I never enjoy betting on the traveling team in

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Speaker 4: that situation.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, but they are off a by so.

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Speaker 4: Maybe that mitigates that somewhat. The number I like here

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Speaker 4: is the under. Like the Arger Chargers are going to

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Speaker 4: be without most likely Mike Williams as you mentioned possibly

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Speaker 4: Josh Palmer. They just haven't really shown any explosion in

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Speaker 4: the passing game. They just don't really have any speed

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Speaker 4: with their pass catchers other than Austin Eckler, who is

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Speaker 4: not you know, catching balls deep downfield.

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Speaker 5: And the Falcons, we know how they want to play.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Marcus Mariota through twenty eight passes yesterday and

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Speaker 4: it felt like, you know, he was they were opening

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Speaker 4: it up full throttle. So yeah, like I think we're

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Speaker 4: going to see Atlanta do the same kind of grinded

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Speaker 4: out game script and like that total just seems a

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Speaker 4: little too high to me.

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Speaker 5: And if I play a side here, it's gonna be Atlanta,

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Speaker 5: no question.

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Speaker 1: The Falcons are my kryptonite. I have zero finger on

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Speaker 1: the pulse of the Falcons. Kyle Pitts had a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: I was the one calling and saying that this is

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Speaker 1: it for Marcus Mariota. Finally we're going to get the

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Speaker 1: game where he gets replaced. No, no, no, instead we

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Speaker 1: get the huge overtime win. So Friedman, I have nothing

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Speaker 1: to offer of any considerable usefulness here, So please.

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Speaker 2: Tell me something about the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: Teach me, because I have no idea what this game

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Speaker 1: is I'm running away from it.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if the listeners are going to get

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Speaker 3: anything from this because Fits and I are on total

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Speaker 3: opposites of this game, which is r and I'm useless.

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Speaker 3: So this is great now. I mean, you know, like

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Speaker 3: I would say that this feels like a get right

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Speaker 3: spot for the Los Angeles offense, even without Mike Williams.

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Speaker 3: They I think we'll have Keenan Allen coming back. They're

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Speaker 3: coming off of the buy. Atlanta's secondary is still decimated.

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Speaker 3: So I view this as anything like maybe grab the three,

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Speaker 3: because I could see if this moves a direction. I

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Speaker 3: think it moves more towards the three and a half

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Speaker 3: than the two and a half. And I mean this

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Speaker 3: number is crept up. I bet it at forty seven

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Speaker 3: and a half on the look ahead, it's forty nine

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Speaker 3: and a half now at bet MGM. And to FITs' point,

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Speaker 3: you know, I loved it much more at forty seven

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Speaker 3: and a half than I do it at forty nine

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Speaker 3: and a half. But both of these teams on defense

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Speaker 3: are really bad, and I think they are. They're weak

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Speaker 3: in the way that plays to the strengths of the

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Speaker 3: opposing offenses, like Atlanta wants to run, you can run

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Speaker 3: on the Chargers, the Chargers would probably like to pass,

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Speaker 3: and Atlanta can be thrown on. So it feels like

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Speaker 3: points will be scored in this game. So I'm on

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Speaker 3: the exact opposite, But you know, I don't know, maybe

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Speaker 3: I have a misread on this game.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Miami Dolphins, who are now

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Speaker 1: five and three after a wonderful comeback against that Lion's

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Speaker 1: defense that never lets us down because they never show up.

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Speaker 1: The Chicago Bears three and five, but starting to put

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Speaker 1: together some decent looking moments for a change. Now they're

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Speaker 1: still at home and still four and a half point

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Speaker 1: underdogs in their own stadium. Forty five and a half

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Speaker 1: is the number on this one if you like the

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Speaker 1: Bears for an upsets plus one seventy on the money line.

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Speaker 1: So Miami kind of opened up the whoop ass yesterday

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Speaker 1: in that game. Just incredible onslought between Jaylen Waddle between

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Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill to showing you.

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Speaker 2: What he's capable of.

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Speaker 1: But I keep coming back to this one point with

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins, which is their defense is not great and

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Speaker 1: the Bears are starting to do some things on offense.

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Speaker 2: Here Freedman.

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Speaker 1: So when you're looking at the emergence of Justin Fields

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Speaker 1: here in these last few weeks in terms of he's

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Speaker 1: averaging about seventy yards on the ground himself. He's finishing

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Speaker 1: as a QB one three weeks in a row in fantasy. Now,

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Speaker 1: all those things you look at and you go, well,

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Speaker 1: that's fantasy, is not reality. But it's starting to look

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Speaker 1: like reality on the field. So is this a dangerous

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Speaker 1: game here to not take the Bear seriously at this

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Speaker 1: four and a half number.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm the moron who betted at three and

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Speaker 2: a half, So you know.

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Speaker 3: I'm probably not the best person, you know, because I

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Speaker 3: saw value at that number and it moved to four

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Speaker 3: and a half. And you know, Miami was I think

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Speaker 3: impressive this past week. But I would say the Bears

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Speaker 3: also looked really good going against a tough Cowboys team.

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Speaker 3: And I was impressed offensively that they were able to

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Speaker 3: put up as many points as they did against the Cowboys,

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Speaker 3: and their defense is I don't know, I'm going to

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Speaker 3: not him up with the right adjective.

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Speaker 2: It's not feisty's I would say opportunistic. That's that's how

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Speaker 2: I would describe them. They have.

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Speaker 1: They make plays at certain moments and kind of get

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Speaker 1: them back in there, but they're not a great defensive

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Speaker 1: You're not consistent.

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Speaker 2: I guess it's the best way to put it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so you know this this to FITs' earlier point

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Speaker 3: about you know, a road a road favorite here if

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Speaker 3: this feels like just a little too much for the

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Speaker 3: Miami Dolphins here, I have this at three and a half,

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Speaker 3: not four and a half. So I guess in theory

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Speaker 3: there's some value here. And I you know, I took

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Speaker 3: it as a result of the line moved against me.

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Speaker 3: Haven't gotten the value. I actually I do like the

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Speaker 3: over though I bet this is at forty five. It's

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Speaker 3: at forty five and a half. Now, I still think

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Speaker 3: there's some value there.

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Speaker 2: Fits. Do you see any early value in this one

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Speaker 2: with Chicago and Miami.

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Speaker 5: I don't know about early value.

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Speaker 4: Maybe now that it's moving in the direction of Miami

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Speaker 4: because I want to bet the Bears. I want to

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Speaker 4: bet another home dog here, and you know, I was

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Speaker 4: thinking maybe there would be a weather advantage with the

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Speaker 4: Dolphins coming up to you know, Chile Chicago in November,

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Speaker 4: with the stadium on the lake shore. I looked at

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Speaker 4: the forecast for next weekend, it's gonna be in the

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Speaker 4: low sixties on Sunday.

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Speaker 5: So so much for that idea.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, the scary thing about betting the Bears here, Yes,

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Speaker 4: their offense looked really good, but we know how they

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Speaker 4: move the ball, Like it's going to take a lot

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Speaker 4: of swings of the acts to get that tree down.

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Speaker 5: For the Bears, they run, run and run some more.

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Speaker 4: It's gonna be eight, nine, ten play drives, whereas Miami,

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Speaker 4: you know, it's a pass to Tyreek Hill, it's a

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Speaker 4: pass to Jalen Waddle.

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Speaker 5: And they're in the end zone.

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Speaker 4: And like, it's scary to bet against a team like

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Speaker 4: that when you're only giving up a handful of points.

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Speaker 4: And yes, the Bears, you mentioned it. The defense, like

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Speaker 4: it's it's functional. Like they're fourteenth against the pass, they're

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Speaker 4: fourteenth in pressure rate on the quarterback, they are twelfth

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Speaker 4: in DVOA against the pass, and they are tenth in

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Speaker 4: PFF's coverage grade. So they're a competent pass defense. But

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Speaker 4: man like, you have to be more than confident competent

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Speaker 4: to stop the Miami passing game like they man like

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Speaker 4: when they've got two at the controls.

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Speaker 5: They are just like firing on all cylinders.

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Speaker 4: And like, I don't know if the Bears have the

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Speaker 4: cornerbacks to stop both hill and waddle.

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Speaker 5: So it's a scary bet.

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Speaker 4: I'm probably gonna do that blind bet on the home Dogs,

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Speaker 4: but you know, as far as specifically picking out the

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Speaker 4: Bears to bet on, I don't know if I'm there.

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Speaker 5: And like Friedman, I lean over here.

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Speaker 3: Okay, to Fitz's point about the Bears, whether they have

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Speaker 3: the cornerbacks, they absolutely do not have the cornerbacks like that.

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Speaker 2: That is the one thing that makes me.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, right their second Yeah, there's a question you don't

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Speaker 4: have cornerback depth.

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Speaker 2: So so we all know the.

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Speaker 1: Quick strike ability of the Miami Dolphins. But let's also

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Speaker 1: talk about the Miami Dolphins defense for a second too.

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Speaker 1: Do they have a linebacking core that we feel good

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Speaker 1: can chase Justin Fields around and chase Khalil Herbert around,

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Speaker 1: Because honestly, I don't, uh and I haven't for some time.

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Speaker 1: And I think this number becomes fascinating in the late third,

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Speaker 1: early fourth quarter because does Miami kind of take their

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Speaker 1: foot off the gas a little bit? They do have

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Speaker 1: a lead, and this is garbage hunter. They kind of

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Speaker 1: catch up because you kind of saw the Bears yesterday

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Speaker 1: still compete. You know, when they were down, they were

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Speaker 1: still competing and scratching and calling a little bit, which

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Speaker 1: I think is a good instinct for that team. It's

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Speaker 1: something they haven't shown in a long time. This one,

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Speaker 1: to me, I think this four and a half is fascinating.

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Speaker 1: I like the Bears on this. I think the blind

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Speaker 1: instinctual betting might be the best thing we do on

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Speaker 1: this one. Pat, let's take a quick break in the

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Speaker 1: in Arizona one one hundred five to two four seven

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Speaker 1: zero zero in Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana and Nevada, Wyoming

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00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:15,160
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Speaker 1: In puert Rico, called eight seven seven eight hop E

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Speaker 1: eight eight nine nine seven eight nine at Tennessee or

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Speaker 1: called one eight eight eight seven seven seven nine six

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00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,640
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00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:38,680
Speaker 1: eight six six five three one two six zero zero

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00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:40,440
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00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:42,680
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00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,760
Speaker 1: where prohibitive and promotional offers not available in Nevada and

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00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:45,160
Speaker 1: New York.

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Speaker 2: And now back to the action. Let's get to the

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Speaker 2: next one here.

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Speaker 1: The Cincinnati Bengals won't be with having any time Jamar

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Speaker 1: Chase soon, but they are eight and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorites still at home.

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Speaker 2: They are four and three they played tonight on Monday

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Speaker 2: Night football.

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Speaker 1: Caroline Panthers are two and six, so forty four is

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00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,600
Speaker 1: the number on this one. Carolina is plus three twenty

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00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,400
Speaker 1: on the money line. This seems like a big number

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00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,640
Speaker 1: to me, fits and it's not because I don't think

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00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,720
Speaker 1: Cincinnati's very good, because they are. I think they're a

365
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 1: very good team that has figured things out after a

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Speaker 1: rough start to the season. I'm fascinated to see how

367
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,440
Speaker 1: they come out of the gates without Chamar Chase tonight.

368
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:20,800
Speaker 1: But eight and a half still feels like a really

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00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,280
Speaker 1: big number here, because Carolina seems to be in the

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00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,000
Speaker 1: zone where they want to just run the football, drag

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Speaker 1: it down. And dare I say PJ Walker had the

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Speaker 1: throw of the day on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: I mean, PJ. Walker's starting to look confident out there.

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Speaker 1: Do you think eight and a half is something we

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Speaker 1: should jump on right now or do you want to

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Speaker 1: wait and see if it gets a little bigger.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna jump on it.

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Speaker 4: On the other side, Joe, I kind of like the

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00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:46,320
Speaker 4: Bengals here, and like I think we've seen newfound respect

380
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,680
Speaker 4: for the Panthers with these lines. Didn't this open wasn't

381
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Speaker 4: the early look aheadline at like ten points?

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Speaker 5: Friedman?

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00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,080
Speaker 2: It was this nine and a half? Nine and a half?

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Speaker 4: Okay, So it has moved down since the Panthers, you know,

385
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,840
Speaker 4: pritty effort against the Falcons, But man, like, I just

386
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Speaker 4: do not trust this Carolina offense. Like they managed to

387
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,679
Speaker 4: grind out twenty one points against the Buccaneers mostly on

388
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Speaker 4: the ground with an unexpected, unexpectedly good rushing performance against

389
00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,239
Speaker 4: a pretty good Buccaneers run dye, and then yesterday they

390
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 4: just took advantage of a decimated Falcon secondary And I

391
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 4: should go back and revise my uh comment that I

392
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,440
Speaker 4: like the under in that Falcons Chargers game. I kind

393
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:33,080
Speaker 4: of forgot about how destroyed the Falcon secondary is, so

394
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,440
Speaker 4: maybe I'm not gonna be and you know, honestly, but.

395
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Speaker 1: Even before that, they weren't playing for up to their

396
00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,439
Speaker 1: expectations to everybody going into the ears, like all, these

397
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,160
Speaker 1: are two really good corners, and you know what, basically

398
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,120
Speaker 1: from week one we've been looking at him going nobody's

399
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:46,960
Speaker 1: really played well in that satory.

400
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:48,880
Speaker 4: They had allowed the most passing yards in the league

401
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:53,240
Speaker 4: before they lost aj Terrell, So exactly right. But back

402
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,000
Speaker 4: to this Panthers game, Yeah, I just don't trust the

403
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:57,680
Speaker 4: Panthers to be able to move the ball on a

404
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 4: pretty good Cincinnati defense even without Jamar Chase. Like I mean, yeah,

405
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,440
Speaker 4: the Bengals had the best wide receivers in the league,

406
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 4: so like they're still decent at wide receiver even without Chase.

407
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Speaker 5: And I think we've seen this offensive line.

408
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 4: Start to come together a little bit in recent weeks,

409
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 4: Like they haven't been a complete sieve. They're giving Burrow

410
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,640
Speaker 4: time to operate. Like the individual pieces and the Bengals

411
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,040
Speaker 4: offensive line were always good, but like there were so

412
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,880
Speaker 4: many new ones. It was going to take some time

413
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,880
Speaker 4: to you know, coagulate, to come together, and I think

414
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 4: that's starting to happen, even off the Monday night game

415
00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 4: in the short week. I like the Bengals here just

416
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Speaker 4: because I don't think the Panthers can keep up.

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Speaker 1: All right, So the man in Orange likes the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman, your thoughts here on this one. I keep saying,

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00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,760
Speaker 1: I feel like the Panthers can keep this one closer

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00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:47,880
Speaker 1: than eight and a half. But are you were Fitzes

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Speaker 1: where you think this number is actually incorrect and you're

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00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:51,840
Speaker 1: on the Bengals side.

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00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:53,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with Fits on this one.

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00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 3: I have this at ten point twenty five, so you know,

425
00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:58,399
Speaker 3: above the key number of ten, I do like it

426
00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:00,080
Speaker 3: here at eight and a half. I liked it and

427
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,280
Speaker 3: a half on the look ahead, so you know, my

428
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 3: read on the market is not good, you know, going

429
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,720
Speaker 3: from look ahead to where we are now. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm entirely with Fits. There's a difference between Carolina playing

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Speaker 3: tight in two divisional games and then going on the

432
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 3: road in Cincinnati and keeping up with the juggernaut of

433
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Speaker 3: an offense. And like the Bengals even without Jamar Chase

434
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 3: when they shifted to more of that shotgun approach on offense,

435
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 3: like it just rejuvenated what they were doing and it

436
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 3: really has helped out their offensive line.

437
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 2: So I don't think Carolina can keep up with Cincinnati.

438
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,000
Speaker 1: All right, short week, No, can't sell you on this

439
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:42,879
Speaker 1: at all that Okay, all right, I'll just move on.

440
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 2: All right, Just there's no quarter for me here.

441
00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 1: Let's go to Green Bay and Detroit. I'm gonna get

442
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 1: fits some time to think on this one.

443
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:50,680
Speaker 2: The agreement.

444
00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,159
Speaker 1: Packers are three and a half point favorites on the

445
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 1: road against the Detroit Lions, who opened up the game

446
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,440
Speaker 1: well and once again, the defense just completely collapses.

447
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:01,880
Speaker 2: Forty nine is the number on this bad boy.

448
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 1: If you like the Detroit Lions for the upset, it's

449
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 1: plus one fifty on the money line. So I'm tired

450
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 1: of hearing the get right game narrative for the Packers, Friedman,

451
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:13,120
Speaker 1: I'm over it. I was over it after they lost

452
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 1: to Washington. Everybody knew they weren't gonna go into Buffalo

453
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 1: and do anything, and they really didn't. So now you

454
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 1: get the Lions, so you're gonna hear that narrative again

455
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 1: for the Packers get right game. This is the perfect

456
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 1: opportunity to have a piece of Detroit, maybe even on.

457
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 2: The money line the plus one fifty here.

458
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm on Detroit at three and a half here.

459
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 3: I bet it on the look ahead. And my theory

460
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,639
Speaker 3: on this was Green Baker get totally killed by the Bills,

461
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 3: which didn't quite happen, but they didn't look all that

462
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 3: great in that game either, and I was thinking, Okay,

463
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,400
Speaker 3: Detroit could win this game, or they could at least hang.

464
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,520
Speaker 2: That didn't really happen either.

465
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 3: Like it was three and a half on the look ahead,

466
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 3: it's three and a half now, which.

467
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 2: Is like, that's really weird.

468
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,359
Speaker 3: Normally, when the bookmaker said it at three and a half,

469
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 3: they're expecting that number two move either on to three

470
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 3: or to start moving closer to like six or seven.

471
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,120
Speaker 3: And this is just staying at three and a half

472
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 3: because the market is just like these two teams.

473
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,160
Speaker 2: I don't know, but I do prefer Detroit.

474
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 3: In the spot that said like, you never make money

475
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 3: betting against Aaron Rodgers when he's playing in Division And

476
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna be the idiot who's on the opposite

477
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 3: side of that. But you know, I have this at

478
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,199
Speaker 3: two point two five. I'm not really impressed with what

479
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 3: the Packers are doing on offense. Their defense isn't, you know,

480
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 3: coagulating to borrow a fits phrase there. It's not coming

481
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,680
Speaker 3: together the way that they anticipated. So I'm yeah, I'm

482
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 3: on Detroit, although I mean I don't feel great about it.

483
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 2: But three and a half is just too much. Yeah.

484
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: Look, I feel like the Bills just took their foot

485
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 1: off the gas of the second half.

486
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:49,679
Speaker 2: They're like, Okay, look this is over. You want to

487
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 2: try to run the football and go ahead, you do this.

488
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 1: They were just like, if you try anything, though, we're

489
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 1: gonna come back on the field and we're gonna throw

490
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 1: the ball fifty yards. So don't try anything. Go let

491
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 1: you earn a football for a couple quarters. That's fine,

492
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 1: but fits here we go. I mean, you also had

493
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 1: some injuries in this game too for the Packers. You

494
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 1: also didn't have Lazard this past week. I just don't know.

495
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 1: I mean, the Lions defense is the gift that keeps

496
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 1: on giving. But Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers

497
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 1: just seem to be unable to take advantage of any

498
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 1: opportunity they have to get right so how do you

499
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 1: how do you figure this one out?

500
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 4: Another case sort of liking the home Dog, and I

501
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,119
Speaker 4: think I would have anyway. I had this at three,

502
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 4: and so you know, I see half a point of value.

503
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 4: Rogers is eighteen and six against the Lions lifetime. I

504
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 4: don't know if that really matters. This is just a

505
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:40,439
Speaker 4: different and less proficient Packers offense. But I'm not going

506
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 4: to bet the under in this one like that. Detroit

507
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 4: is just an accelerant in every game therein. I mean,

508
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 4: Detroit just cannot defend anyone. And you know they have

509
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 4: a pretty good offense, and you mentioned it, Joe. Some

510
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 4: injuries to the Packers defense. The big one I think

511
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 4: in this one is Devondre Campbell trying to defend a

512
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 4: team that has DeAndre Swift and Williams.

513
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 5: Revenge game for Jamal Williams.

514
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 4: By the way, who I remember in that guy's first

515
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 4: year thinking that he was not long for the NFL.

516
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 4: I was not very impressed. Man, was I wrong about

517
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 4: that guy? I mean, what a what a player. He's

518
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 4: become a nice piece for that Detroit offense. Yeah, I mean,

519
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 4: I probably other than my blind bet on the Home Dogs,

520
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 4: I'm you know, I'm gonna walk away from everything else

521
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 4: in this game. I think like the number seems about right.

522
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 4: I just can't trust the Packers in this spot. But

523
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 4: at the same time, you know, like the Lions are

524
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 4: having such a hard time sealing the deal on an

525
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 4: actual win, so unless they're getting a big number, like

526
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 4: I don't feel great about betting them.

527
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:42,400
Speaker 5: Know, it's so.

528
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 1: Weird because the Lions also were a team that I

529
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 1: think everybody collectively thought that maybe it's the hard Knocks hangover.

530
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,880
Speaker 1: I don't know, but I think we all collectively thought,

531
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 1: you know, last year, they were very competitive, they fought

532
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: in all these games.

533
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 2: Like they could be better this year, and they're actually worse.

534
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 5: And it's the same thing though.

535
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,160
Speaker 4: They're like they're in every game and they just cannot

536
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 4: figure out a way to grab a win by the

537
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,160
Speaker 4: throat and you know, just bring it home.

538
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 1: So all right, let's see what the Las Vegas Raiders

539
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 1: do after getting shut out. It's hard to get shut

540
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 1: out in the NFL, let me tell you it was tough,

541
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 1: but the Raiders found a way to do it. They

542
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 1: are one and a half point favorites regardless though against Jacksonville,

543
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 1: So go figure forty six and a half is the

544
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 1: number on this one. You got plus one oh five

545
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: on the money line for the Jags at home if

546
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: you like them to win outright, so fits this always

547
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 1: feels like the Raiders will come out one or two ways.

548
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 1: Either come out gangbusters here and put a hurt on

549
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, or are they're at two and five and

550
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 1: they're folding up the tents and they're gonna check out

551
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: under their new head coach Josh McDaniels.

552
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 2: Which Raiders do you think we're gonna see in week nine?

553
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 5: Oh? Man?

554
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 4: Like, I don't know how you can bet the Raiders

555
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 4: coming off that game against the Saints where they looked

556
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 4: so bad on offense after looking really good for most

557
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 4: of the season, And like I'm dying to know what

558
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 4: they are doing as far as travel, Like are they

559
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 4: going back to the West coast or are they going

560
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 4: to stay in the Southeast just for the week?

561
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:03,640
Speaker 2: I believe I believe they are going to Florida, all right.

562
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 4: That then I'm maybe a little more inclined to actually

563
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 4: consider playing them, But I'm probably just gonna walk away

564
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 4: from this game, like Jacksonville coming off the London game.

565
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 5: Two teams in weird.

566
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 4: Places right now, and I man, like, this is just

567
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 4: the hardest game I think of the week to read.

568
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 2: All right, Friedman, what's your read on this one? Do

569
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 2: you have one?

570
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 3: I have it exactly at one and a half, so

571
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 3: pretty much no opinion on this game side or total.

572
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,119
Speaker 3: If if I were to bet it, it would probably

573
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 3: be on Vegas. You know, if you just sort of

574
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 3: bet the spread on any team coming off of a loss,

575
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 3: like a shutout loss, you'd probably be doing well.

576
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 2: Uh.

577
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 3: And that's the situation and I can't. I can't bath

578
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 3: them betting on Jacksonville in this spot. But I really

579
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 3: don't want either of these teams, so it's just probably

580
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 3: stay away for me.

581
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 1: Let's take another quick break in the action to tell

582
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: you about the over under game over on the Sleeper app.

583
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 1: I mentioned it before, but look, it's one of the

584
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,199
Speaker 1: few places where you can play with your friends and

585
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 1: contest play together, or you could challenge strangers if you want,

586
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: and it's really fun, So go check it out. The

587
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 1: over undergame over on Sleeper. You pick two or more

588
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:15,880
Speaker 1: players that you like to pick the over under. It's

589
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: just that simple. You can win anywhere from two to

590
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 1: twenty times your cash. So go over to Sleeper Dot

591
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 1: app slash Betting Pros Asleeper Dot app slash Betting Pros

592
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 1: and use that promo code Betting Pros when you do

593
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: to get that one hundred dollars deposit match over on

594
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: Sleeper to go play that over undergame, and go check

595
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: out their new Daily Drafts game two which just launch.

596
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 1: You could play for just a buck. Go check that

597
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 1: out as well. Let's get to the next one here.

598
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: We've got Las Vegas. Oh already, Las Vegas. We've got

599
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots. So the

600
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 1: Patriots go to four and four. They are six point

601
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: home favorites here against the Colts. Wasn't a pretty game

602
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 1: against the Jets, but it was a win regardless. Thirty

603
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: nine and a half is the number, so Vegas is

604
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 1: telling you this is not going to be an exciting

605
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 1: offensive game. Plus two to fifteen on the money line

606
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: for the Colts if you like that Friedman when you're

607
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 1: looking here. This is another tricky one because this is

608
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,120
Speaker 1: a very low thirty nine and a half. But it's

609
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 1: one thing we've seen in some of these games that

610
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: look like they're going to be the dregs in terms

611
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 1: of over unders they start to perform better than we realize.

612
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 1: Does this game have that potential in it or do

613
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 1: you think this is even more miserable than the thirty

614
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: nine and a half.

615
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 3: I think it will be a low scoring game, and

616
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 3: that actually puts me on the Colts in this spot.

617
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 3: And this number is six and a half at bet MGM,

618
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 3: So I think that's the best value on the board

619
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 3: that I'm seeing right now.

620
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 2: That's what I would bet.

621
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 3: I have this, let me see projected at five point

622
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 3: two five, So I've bet it's six and a half.

623
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 3: By the way, you can find that in the betting

624
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 3: pros app nice natural plug right there.

625
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 2: I have this as pretty good value for the Colts.

626
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 3: I'm interested in your guys opinion on this because I

627
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 3: think that Ellinger. Ellinger actually played decently well in his

628
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 3: first start. The Colts were in control of that game

629
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 3: against the Commanders for I mean almost all of it

630
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 3: until the very end. Meanwhile, I mean there was a

631
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 3: point in that game with the Patriots where you know,

632
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 3: there was a pick six that like ended up not

633
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 3: being a pick six, but like they easily could have

634
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 3: lost that game. Like I would say that they played

635
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,919
Speaker 3: closer to the level of the Jets than like a

636
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:24,200
Speaker 3: tier above them, and that was a wounded Jets team.

637
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 3: Six and a half is a real six. Six and

638
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 3: a half really big number, I think in a low

639
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 3: scoring game for the Patriots to be able to outmaneuver

640
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 3: the Colts here, So.

641
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 1: I'll take this stuff farther. I don't think the old

642
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: school New England Patriot home field advantage is a thing anymore.

643
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: That used to be a building that was really hard

644
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: to go into and win, and we've seen this in

645
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 1: the last few years.

646
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 2: Is not It's not the same thing. It doesn't have

647
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:50,479
Speaker 2: the same juice in it.

648
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: You could feel the crowd knows when things aren't going

649
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: the way that you know, Tom Brady ain't there to

650
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: turn things around and pick.

651
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 2: Up the pieces. A really good point. So that's a

652
00:28:58,080 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 2: really good point.

653
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 1: I'm telling you right now, this six is still living

654
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: in the past of the mystique and the aura of

655
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 1: that building and it ain't there anymore. So I'm with you.

656
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 1: I think this is where you're going with this fits.

657
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 1: What do you think about this number?

658
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 4: You guys do make some really good points and like it.

659
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 4: It was a long time ago. But the Colts beat

660
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 4: the Chiefs in Week two? Do we remember that?

661
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 5: Like I do?

662
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 2: I mean, you know why it costs me money, That's

663
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 2: why I remember it.

664
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:29,479
Speaker 4: Like, so, this team is capable of doing good things.

665
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 4: But then again, in their other six games, they are

666
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 4: two three and one and they have not played another

667
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 4: good team besides the Chiefs. And they just got booed

668
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 4: off their home home field after melting down and losing

669
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 4: a game they should have won to you know, a

670
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 4: mediocre Washington team. So they can't be in a great

671
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 4: headspace right now. And the one thing that worries me

672
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 4: about this indie team, it's like it feels like the

673
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 4: wheels are ready to come off completely. And you know,

674
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 4: like a rookie quarterback making getting his first prolonged exa

675
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 4: exposure to NFL defense, Like do you feel good about

676
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 4: betting a rookie quarterback against Bill Belichick?

677
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 2: The problem? But you know I don't. But here's where

678
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 2: I keep coming back to.

679
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: But I said the same thing going against Fields two

680
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: weeks ago, which is, man, you know, Bell just gonna

681
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 1: throw a lot of looks at him. They're gonna really

682
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: confuse him. But the thing he kept doing, which is

683
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 1: something that Ellinger can do too, which is he can improvise.

684
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 2: And that's the thing that Ryan couldn't do.

685
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 1: And that was the thing they were getting it Like

686
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: Matthew Judah was there, Dietrich Wise were there.

687
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 2: These guys were on top of fields.

688
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 1: But the problem was, you know, one missnap, turn around

689
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: and they saying, you know, you run for fifteen yards.

690
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,479
Speaker 1: That kind of that breaks the back of a defense.

691
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: It kind of it kills the mojo and the momentum

692
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 1: of a defense in the game. And I think that's

693
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 1: the piece that this young Colts quarterback brings that Matthew

694
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 1: Ryan does not. Uh, you're I see you smart, smirking

695
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: and smiling here, what are your thought? You just like

696
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 1: the demise of the Patriots, Let's be honest.

697
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 3: That's what this point and this is this is a

698
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 3: minor point, but it might have some significance here. Ellinger

699
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 3: not a rookie, actually a second in year quarterback, just

700
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 3: like he has like that that experience within the system,

701
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 3: so maybe he won't be as rattled. And I would

702
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 3: say there would be something like magnificently poetic about a

703
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 3: second year sixth rounder going into New England and beating

704
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 3: Bellach like the game after he becomes the most winning

705
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 3: his coach in history.

706
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 2: You know.

707
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, the other part of this game too, when you

708
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: think about it, where they kind of feel very similar

709
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: to the Bears team that they struggled against, because this

710
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 1: is a team that does have some good defensive players

711
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 1: on it, opportunistic at times, shack lender back healthy. Yes,

712
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: Ray certainly was a big piece. And then this is

713
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: a team that is probably going to commit to running

714
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: the football and has a mobile quarterback that seems to

715
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: be the special sauce where that gives the Patriots fits

716
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 1: this year and not Mit fitz Morris's actual fits. So

717
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 1: it's something to really keep an eye on going forward.

718
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: This is a very tenuous situation. I like the cold

719
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 1: side of this one. I think who wins a game,

720
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 1: but I think that cold that's six. It's a big

721
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 1: number here, especially with Mac Jones has played Buffalo twelve

722
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the New York Jets.

723
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 1: If you like the Jets plus four fifty, I mean

724
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,479
Speaker 1: clearly this forty seven and a half. You look at

725
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 1: this number fits, you look at the Breece Hall Liss

726
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 1: Jets I kept making this comment all week. I was like,

727
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: stop thinking that Michael Carter's Breeze Hall, Stop thinking that

728
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 1: James Robinson's Bristols. This is not a great run offensive line.

729
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 1: Breece Hall is just a super talented player. Don't confuse

730
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 1: the two. I think we saw it on full display.

731
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson is.

732
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: Not the guy.

733
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: He never was the guy, he never will be the guy.

734
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 1: This could be another ugly day. Is it going to

735
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 1: be this ugly?

736
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 2: Though? Your thoughts on the Jets and Bills.

737
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 4: I would not be surprised to see it go the

738
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 4: way of the Jets Bills game where the Jets were

739
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 4: at home last year when the Bills came in and

740
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 4: trounced them forty five to seventeen. And the other game

741
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 4: in the Bills Jets series last year, the one in

742
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 4: Buffalo twenty seven than the ten Buffalo. So I don't

743
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 4: think the Jets are a significantly better team on offense

744
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 4: than they were last year. Maybe a little better in defense,

745
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 4: But yeah, I can't. I can't bet the Jets here yet.

746
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 4: It's a tall number and it seems like this line

747
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 4: is just about right.

748
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 5: You know.

749
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 4: If anything, I'm going to play the under here because

750
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 4: I just don't think the Jets can can move the ball.

751
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 5: Like this Jets offense is so limited.

752
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 4: They couldn't run yesterday, couldn't get anything going with Michael

753
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 4: Carter and James Robinson, and like Zach Wilson is just bad.

754
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 2: Like I see the Elijah Moore quote that was my

755
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 2: favorite one.

756
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 1: They asked him something the effect of what do you

757
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 1: think about you know, Zach Wilson is like, I couldn't

758
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 1: tell you because he's never thrown the ball to me.

759
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, like under a fifty percent completion rate yesterday,

760
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 4: three interceptions, I mean a lot of yardage and garbage time.

761
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 4: But man, he's he's just not it. And I think

762
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 4: the Jets are starting to realize that. Uh yeah, So

763
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 4: I like the under here. I don't like a side,

764
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 4: even though if I was going to better side, it

765
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 4: would beat Buffalo Freemante.

766
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:10,359
Speaker 1: If you asked me, like in a vacuum, to put

767
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 1: a number on this game, I would have said fourteen

768
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,839
Speaker 1: without hesitation. So therefore, I think there's still room here

769
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 1: to lock this in because I think it's going to

770
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:19,919
Speaker 1: only grow as the people continue to analyze what both

771
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 1: of these teams did over the past weekend and what

772
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 1: they've done so far this year. Do you kind of

773
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 1: agree that this might get larger as we get to Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

774
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I have.

775
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 3: This at eleven point seventy five, and I can tell

776
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 3: you I'm certainly not betting on the Jets in this spot,

777
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,280
Speaker 3: and I bet ten and a half.

778
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 2: Shout out me and the look I had market.

779
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 3: Because I just knew, regardless of whatever happens this weekend,

780
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 3: barring a Josh Allen injury, there is no way that

781
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 3: this line moves down to ten. And Joe, to your point,

782
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 3: like it could easily move up from the ten and

783
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 3: a half. And you know we've seen that, you know,

784
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 3: just in a little bit, it's already at twelve and

785
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 3: a half.

786
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, this number could get to fourteen. All right.

787
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: The Minnesota Vikings are three point favorites on the road

788
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 1: against Washington, So we'll ask fits about another home underdog.

789
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 2: There's a ton of them this week. There's no doubt.

790
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 1: Forty four and a half is the number here, plus

791
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: one forty on the money line for the Washington Commanders.

792
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,919
Speaker 2: Now, I feel like.

793
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 1: You know, Minnesota came away with the w certainly, or

794
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 1: some moments in that game where it got a little

795
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: dicey for them.

796
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 2: How do the Vikings travel here in your mind?

797
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 1: Is this another spot where the Commanders keep kind of

798
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 1: pulling rabbits out of their hat we should pay more

799
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,359
Speaker 1: attention to it, or is this when they finally get

800
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,359
Speaker 1: an opponent here that's kind of I think above them

801
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 1: in terms of what they're going to do offensive week,

802
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 1: because I think that's been the thing we've seen. The

803
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 1: Commander has been pretty good the last two weeks here,

804
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 1: coming out with W's, but they haven't faced an offense

805
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 1: quite as capable or as star studed as the Vikings.

806
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 3: Freedman, I thought you I thought it's it goes back

807
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 3: when it's the way it was framed, like, I feel

808
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 3: like you said, fits his name in there at some

809
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 3: point and then you wan but not.

810
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 2: But it wasn't a z it was an s okay.

811
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 1: So the transcript after the show, which you can order

812
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 1: at betting Post dot com. You'd like to have the transcript,

813
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 1: that's very popular. People like to sit around the fireplace

814
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: and just read the transcripts of the show.

815
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 2: It's just fun.

816
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm glad we could have this Bncher, because I

817
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 3: really have nothing else to say about this game. Like

818
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 3: my opinion of the Vikings didn't change from you know,

819
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,760
Speaker 3: this past weekend. My opinion of the Commanders really didn't

820
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 3: change from this past weekend. The number is three. I

821
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 3: have it at three point twenty five. It's just this

822
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 3: game is whatever. I'm slightly interested in the over, but

823
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 3: I haven't bet it yet. You know, I have a

824
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 3: position on the look ahead market two and a half

825
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 3: for the Vikings. I'm I'm happy with that, but that

826
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 3: number is not coming back. So I think this number

827
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 3: is basically where it should be at this point.

828
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 2: I think the over is the one that I'm looking at. Fence.

829
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 1: Is that where you're looking to or do you see

830
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 1: something else that Friedman does not see.

831
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,880
Speaker 4: I've got about half a point of value towards the over, Joe.

832
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:56,240
Speaker 5: And first of all, let me issue a quick correction.

833
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 4: I have to go back and say I'm going to

834
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 4: bet on the Jets and not the Bills. I said,

835
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 4: if anything, I bet the Bills, but I am going

836
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 4: to make those blind home underdog bats.

837
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 2: All the blind ones.

838
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 1: But I think this one is is more like you know,

839
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 1: more like Tommy is more like death, dumb and blind.

840
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 1: I wouldn't do this one. This is the one where

841
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 1: you do all the other ones, you go crazy. This

842
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 1: is the one where I think you just keep the

843
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 1: money in the pocket.

844
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 2: Fits. I'm begging you, do not bet on the jet

845
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 2: this week. Do this. It will be pain, you know.

846
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 4: I mean, like we say that we the home underdogs,

847
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 4: like you just can't pick which one Friedman, You just

848
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 4: have to commit, commit to the bit, baby.

849
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 1: Uh So I'm gonna a himball game with the winnings

850
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 1: that have from.

851
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 4: I'm gonna do that here too, with Washington at home

852
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 4: and Joe. You talked about Washington pulling rabbits out of

853
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 4: the hat. I mean, really, it's been Minnesota pulling rabbits

854
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 4: out of the hat. Like they play down to their

855
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,240
Speaker 4: opponent's level of competition. Ever since they smoke the Packers

856
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:58,439
Speaker 4: in Week one, every other game they have played a

857
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 4: tight one that's turned on like a you know, a

858
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:06,839
Speaker 4: weird call, a penalty, a turnover, like something decides that game.

859
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 4: And the Vikings have been on the right side of

860
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 4: like every result. And you know, they went into Week eight,

861
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 4: I think eighteenth overall in DVOA, like they're below average

862
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 4: in Dvoa. And you know, I've said this is a

863
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 4: very average team masquerading is a good team.

864
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 5: I still believe that.

865
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 4: And Washington's got a little bit of mojo going with

866
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 4: wins over Green Bay and Indy seems like, you know,

867
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 4: they've kind of rallied around Taylor Heineke as strange as

868
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 4: that is.

869
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 5: So I like Washington a little bit here.

870
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, next one on the board.

871
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 1: Speaking of teams, you got to try to figure out

872
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:47,919
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks. Maybe it's just time to say it. They're good.

873
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 1: They're five and three. They're good football team and not

874
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,959
Speaker 1: a great football team, but they're a good football team.

875
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 1: And Ken Walker is real good. And Gino Smith has

876
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 1: made throws that I never thought Geno Smith could make

877
00:38:58,200 --> 00:38:58,800
Speaker 1: in the NFL.

878
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 2: It was crazy. He looked like the college days.

879
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: They are two and a half point underdogs going against

880
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals here in this one, though, forty nine

881
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 1: and a half is the number if you like Seattle,

882
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 1: and I do at plus one twenty in the money line,

883
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 1: I would take Seattle to win outright. Fits I'm just

884
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 1: gonna come out and say it. I think the wrong

885
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 1: team is favorite.

886
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 4: Here your thoughts another another home underdog Joe, and you know,

887
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 4: like Friedman is going to give us the skeleton key

888
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,279
Speaker 4: to this one because he knows betting Kingsbury as an

889
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 4: underdog is the way to go and not an.

890
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,880
Speaker 2: Underdog here, right favorite.

891
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:38,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm sorry, and that's but you see

892
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 1: how easy that was, where you just like, oh yeah,

893
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 1: they're putting out somehow the favorites in this one. I'm

894
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:45,839
Speaker 1: gonna take that two and a half. I'm gonna take

895
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: that money line. I'm gonna run because I just Arizona's

896
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 1: defense is bad. Cliff Kingsbury clearly not on the same

897
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 1: page with Kyler Murray feels like oftentimes and I don't

898
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: know who's to blame there, but the Seattle Seahawks. I

899
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,399
Speaker 1: gotta give them credit. And the most dangerous thing about

900
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 1: it is every time they win a game like they

901
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 1: won yesterday, they have a little bit more confidence, a

902
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 1: little bit more swag and bravado, and I think you

903
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: kind of need that when you go on the road,

904
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 1: and the fact that they are underdogs in this game

905
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 1: and they're not getting respect, that is the perfect Pete

906
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 1: Carroll narrative to drive into these guys for the next

907
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 1: six days.

908
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, you might be right about that. Sorry for misreading

909
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 4: that on my sheet.

910
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 5: Yeah.

911
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 4: I also I kind of like the over here. Do

912
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 4: we see any value in the over I mean last Yes,

913
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 4: they did play when they met earlier, like we got

914
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 4: the most unexpected result of all. We were expecting fireworks

915
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 4: when they played in Week five and Seattle won nineteen

916
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 4: to nine, and that was just sort of a you know,

917
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 4: a nider for the Arizona offense. And you know, last

918
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 4: year's games I think are more typical of what we're

919
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:53,279
Speaker 4: likely to see this year. When they played last year

920
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 4: in Arizona, it was thirty seven to thirty four, and

921
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 4: it was thirty eight thirty. So yeah, both of these

922
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 4: teams scored in the thirties in both meetings last year.

923
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 4: I think it's going to be kind of another track

924
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 4: made here and different game.

925
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:11,479
Speaker 2: Though.

926
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 1: You got DeAndre Hopkins in this game. Now you've got

927
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 1: Walker as the starting running back. These are not the

928
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 1: same two teams that met up a couple of weeks ago.

929
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 1: For Admanute, I think, I guess I just if you

930
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: asked me to set this number, it would have probably

931
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:24,360
Speaker 1: been two and a half, and it would have on

932
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 1: the opposite side here, So your thoughts on Seattle.

933
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 3: Maybe I'm crazy, what do you think? No, this is

934
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 3: my favorite game of the week. And by the way,

935
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 3: the NFL schedule makers, what are they doing? There are

936
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 3: only two games in this afternoon window. This is the

937
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 3: only game at four h five and then there's one

938
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 3: game starting at four to twenty five.

939
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 2: So weird. Yeahs, think about what that game was on

940
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 2: the schedule.

941
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:47,760
Speaker 1: When you looked at it, you thought, oh, the rams

942
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 1: in the bucks Earth will stop. Everyone will stop everything

943
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 1: they're doing to watch these two incredible Tom Brady and

944
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 1: the defending champions. Meanwhile, nobody cares. Neither of these football

945
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 1: teams are very good. But I'll be watching the Seattle game.

946
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 2: I know that's the game. That is the game that

947
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 2: people are gonna be watching it. I'll take it a

948
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 2: step further.

949
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,839
Speaker 1: I'll play the dfs the four o'clock window, and I'm

950
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 1: gonna stack.

951
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 2: The Seattle Arizona game about them apples.

952
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, But Joe, to your question, I don't think it's

953
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 3: quite that the wrong team is favored, But I do

954
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 3: I do show value on Seattle here. I bet this

955
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 3: in the look ahead market at three and a half

956
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 3: because I just knew, like that line three and a

957
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 3: half is like, no, that is not going to be

958
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 3: available once this real line comes out in two and

959
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 3: a half.

960
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:33,240
Speaker 2: I would still bet it at two and a half.

961
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 3: I have this at one, so you know, still favored

962
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 3: Arizona at one. But I can easily see how this

963
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 3: ends up flipping by the time kickoff comes because Seattle.

964
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 3: I don't want to say that Gino Smith is actually

965
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 3: the better quarterback in this matchup, but he is. He

966
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 3: has played better this year and he has had more

967
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 3: support around him to this point in the season, both

968
00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 3: playmaking support and play calling support. Then we've seen it

969
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 3: out of Kyler, So yeah, I am on Seattle in

970
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 3: this spot.

971
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 2: Again. This is one of the favorite bets that I

972
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 2: have on the slate, All elite Gino Smith. I told

973
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 2: you I gave the new nickname six weeks ago.

974
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 1: That throw he made a Tyler Lockett, especially after Locket

975
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 1: dropped it the first time and they went back to

976
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 1: the well in the same play and they burned him

977
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 1: the second time.

978
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 2: That was glorious.

979
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 1: The confidence is brimming with Gino Smith would have thought, Okay.

980
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 2: Here we go.

981
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 1: I want to bury the lead here on the show.

982
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 1: We finally got to the big game of the week

983
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 1: that the NFL wants you to watch. It's a Tampa

984
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers minus.

985
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:32,399
Speaker 2: Two and a half.

986
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 1: Somehow they're still favored, I don't know how against the

987
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams, who are three and four forty two

988
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 1: and a half.

989
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 2: Is the number plus one twenty? I don't know.

990
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: I wish there was a gut instinct. I wish there

991
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 1: was a piece of data we could look to here.

992
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 1: If anything, I think I'm on the Rams side of

993
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:50,839
Speaker 1: this game, and I'm somebody who has been super tough

994
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 1: on the Rams. That was last week and I was

995
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: the week before. Friedman, Where do you stand here with

996
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 1: this one? Because once again time is ticking. I feel

997
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 1: like the hourglass has been tipped over for the Buccaneers

998
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 1: and the sand is getting towards the bottom.

999
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1000
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 3: I mean, both of these teams, the Buccaneers especially are injured,

1001
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 3: but you have to think that they get some of

1002
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 3: their players back, given that they have the mini buy

1003
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 3: coming off of Thursday Night Football, and the Rams like

1004
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 3: we don't know, like we just we do not know

1005
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:22,919
Speaker 3: what's happening with Cooper Cup. Presumably he will be fine

1006
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 3: to play for this game, but we really don't know.

1007
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 3: Tyler Higbee also in and out of the game with

1008
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,760
Speaker 3: a neck injury, so both of these teams are injured.

1009
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 3: I have this at three, so in theory, I'm seeing

1010
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:36,840
Speaker 3: some value here. If I were to bet a side

1011
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 3: in this, it probably would be the Buccaneers. But and

1012
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 3: I will say I did bet them at minus two

1013
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 3: in the look ahead market. But you know, at the

1014
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:48,400
Speaker 3: current market two and a half, I don't really feel

1015
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 3: compelled to bet it.

1016
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,919
Speaker 2: No, I think that's a good instinct. Pat, here you go.

1017
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 1: You got the Tampa Bay Bucks somehow still favorites. Don't

1018
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 1: ask me if there's our pick'm game.

1019
00:44:58,719 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 2: This is it for me. I got the way.

1020
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 3: Oh sorry, sorry to interrupt. I will just reject. I'm

1021
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 3: also on the under here. That is, like I think,

1022
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 3: if there's a play in this game in the current market,

1023
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 3: it's on the under.

1024
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:10,799
Speaker 1: Well, look, forty two and a half is not a

1025
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 1: huge number. That's that's gonna be miserable. If that's an under,

1026
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 1: this is gonna be a miserable day at the office

1027
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 1: of the end. Do you see a miserable game here, Fitz?

1028
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 4: If I'm gonna I kind of want to bet the

1029
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 4: Buccaneers here, like Friedman, I've got it at three. And

1030
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 4: the big issue for me with the Rams is that

1031
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,760
Speaker 4: they cannot run the ball, like their offensive line cannot

1032
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:35,280
Speaker 4: create any space whatsoever. They are completely one dimensional, leaving

1033
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:37,319
Speaker 4: things in the hand of the hands of a very

1034
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 4: interception pro and quarterback with Matthew Stafford. I think Cooper

1035
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 4: cup is going to be okay. I think, like I

1036
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 4: saw some sports stocks talking about it looking like a

1037
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 4: low ankle sprain mechanism, so he should be okay to play.

1038
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 4: And I'm a little worried about cop going against the Buccaneers.

1039
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 4: And Friedman mentioned some of the injuries I mean they've got.

1040
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 4: I think they were without Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy Bunting

1041
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 4: and and Twan Winfield and Murphy Bunting and Winfield are

1042
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,280
Speaker 4: like the two guys they've used to cover the slot

1043
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 4: this year, so that could be a problem against Cooper

1044
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 4: Copp But still like this Rams offense is just so limited,

1045
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 4: Like even though the box have looked like garbage the

1046
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 4: last two games, I cannot bet the Rams against the

1047
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 4: Buccaneers here, so I'm inclined to take the box and.

1048
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 1: Jack Barrett hasn't played all that well this year, but

1049
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: he is out for the year too, and forget he's

1050
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 1: another piece that's gone from then.

1051
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:32,879
Speaker 2: So again this is a hoo oo.

1052
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 1: We let's get to the next one here, Tennessee five

1053
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 1: and two go taking on the Kansas City Chiefs, and

1054
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,359
Speaker 1: now we'll see if Ryan Tannehill perhaps this was why

1055
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannhill didn't play. He said, look, rest up, kid,

1056
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 1: we got the Chiefs next week. This is a big

1057
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,360
Speaker 1: game for us. But look, Mike Rabel always has this

1058
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:50,760
Speaker 1: team prepared. They're always ready to go. Eleven's the number

1059
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 1: though the Chiefs, you know, trying to come out of

1060
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 1: that buy Andy Reid off the buye. We all know

1061
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:56,880
Speaker 1: the story. Forty six and a half is the number.

1062
00:46:57,040 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: If you like Tennessee for the upsets plus four hundred.

1063
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 1: It's a hefty price tag on that you get. But

1064
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 1: let's be honest here. The Chiefs still are towards the

1065
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 1: upper class of that AFC. But fits are they eleven

1066
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:09,440
Speaker 1: point favorites?

1067
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 2: Good?

1068
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 4: I think they are if Malik Willis plays for the Titans, like,

1069
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 4: I just don't think Malik Willis is ready for prime time.

1070
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 4: And that ultra run heavy approach worked against the Texans

1071
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 4: and their league worst run defense last week. I don't

1072
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 4: know if it's gonna work against the Chiefs, and when

1073
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 4: you're going up against that much firepower like I think,

1074
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:33,920
Speaker 4: uh a, Melik Willis triggered Titans offense could just be

1075
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:37,319
Speaker 4: completely overwhelmed here. And I do have such respect, like

1076
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 4: I hate betting against Mike Raybell as a double digit dog,

1077
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:40,920
Speaker 4: Just hate it.

1078
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's struggle too.

1079
00:47:43,040 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 4: If it's Willis, I'm gonna I'm gonna make that be.

1080
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 4: If it's Tannehill, then I'm gonna have to take a

1081
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 4: second look and think hard about it.

1082
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to think that this is why you got

1083
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 1: Willis last week, like the town Hill probably maybe could

1084
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 1: have gutted it out if this was the Chiefs, but

1085
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:59,439
Speaker 1: it was the Texans, so instead they said, look, let's

1086
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 1: not push thing. Freedman, do you have that inclination as

1087
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 1: well that you do get Tannehill probably for this game?

1088
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 1: And if so, is eleven too much there or not

1089
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 1: enough respect I should say, even for Mike Rabel and

1090
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: the Titans.

1091
00:48:09,960 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm imagining that Tannehill does play, and I think

1092
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 3: Tannehill is baked into this line. I you know, I

1093
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 3: don't think it will be Malik Willis, but you know,

1094
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 3: we even have a ten and a half available right

1095
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 3: now at at FANDUL. I mean, honestly, I do like

1096
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 3: Kansas City in this spot. I have this projected at

1097
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:35,399
Speaker 3: twelve now, I to fits his point, which I do take.

1098
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 3: I hate betting against Mike Vrabel as an underdog like

1099
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 3: he just like his team literally does have that dog

1100
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 3: in him, especially because they've got big dog Derrick Henry,

1101
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,360
Speaker 3: and like with Henry, they can control a lot of

1102
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:49,880
Speaker 3: the game clock. But man, the Chiefs are just so

1103
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:53,880
Speaker 3: good on offense. They can score, they can control the

1104
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 3: clock as well.

1105
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1106
00:48:55,960 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 3: I'm probably not betting it, but if I were ten

1107
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,280
Speaker 3: and a half going towards Kansas City is the number

1108
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:03,879
Speaker 3: that I would take.

1109
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:07,839
Speaker 2: Okay, one more game. It is the Monday night game two.

1110
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:12,359
Speaker 1: We've got the New Orleans Saints three point home underdogs

1111
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:15,319
Speaker 1: against the Baltimore Ravens, so the Ravens will travel there

1112
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 1: at five and three. Forty eight and a half is

1113
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 1: the number on this one plus one forty five. I

1114
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 1: don't think we're ever gonna see Jarvis Lander. Michael Thomas ever.

1115
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:26,000
Speaker 2: Again, Andy Dalton, though seems to be the quarterback of choice.

1116
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 2: Alvin Kamara certainly showed up in a big way yesterday,

1117
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 2: so it feels like perhaps that was a very defining

1118
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 2: moment for the Saints. But Friedman, does that translate over

1119
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:39,760
Speaker 2: into Monday Night against the Ravens? That is the question,

1120
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 2: I think.

1121
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 3: So we're seeing a daltonnaissance or something with the Saint

1122
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 3: we get.

1123
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 2: Then on a shirt? Can we get please?

1124
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 1: Can we go to the fantasy pros or betting pro

1125
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 1: shops and get that right now?

1126
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 3: I want that so fits and I do our first

1127
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:58,760
Speaker 3: round of projections on Friday Saturday and kind of compare

1128
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 3: that to the look Ahet mines. We were the most

1129
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 3: off market of any team or any game so far

1130
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:10,320
Speaker 3: this year when we were projecting Baltimore at New Orleans

1131
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 3: and plus three and a half was in the look

1132
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:16,400
Speaker 3: ahead market. So I grab that immediately. I have this

1133
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:19,719
Speaker 3: projected as a pick them and I don't know. I

1134
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:23,480
Speaker 3: mean the Saints they have a real homefield advantage their offense.

1135
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:26,880
Speaker 3: We haven't seen a drop off with Andy Dalton, if anything, like,

1136
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:29,960
Speaker 3: we've seen that offense perform better with Dalton because he

1137
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 3: has been able to avoid some of the mistakes, and

1138
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 3: maybe at some point we get Jarvis Landry or Michael

1139
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 3: Thomas back, or Adam Troutman back like I mean they are,

1140
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 3: or even Marshaun Lattimore back, like some of these players

1141
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 3: are likely to return at some point this year. One

1142
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 3: of them could return this week, and I think they're

1143
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,879
Speaker 3: being priced as if none of those guys will come

1144
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 3: back this week.

1145
00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 2: So I do see value in this number at three,

1146
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 2: all right, fits, do you see value as well at

1147
00:50:58,200 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 2: the three?

1148
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 4: I absolutely do, And I think Friedman and I were

1149
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 4: also most off market on the Saints in Week eight

1150
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:07,799
Speaker 4: and it paid off handsomely for us because we were

1151
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 4: both on the Saints as a home underdog against the Raiders.

1152
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 5: And I'm with him.

1153
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 4: Even though I've got this, Friedman has this went close

1154
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:17,719
Speaker 4: to even I have like Baltimore as a one to

1155
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:21,319
Speaker 4: one and a half point favorite here, but man like

1156
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:23,319
Speaker 4: that would go down in my estimation if they had

1157
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:26,839
Speaker 4: to play without both Mark Andrews and Rashad Bateman, and

1158
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:29,399
Speaker 4: I suspect they're gonna, you know, not have at least

1159
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:30,240
Speaker 4: one of those guys.

1160
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 5: So, as Friedman.

1161
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 4: Said, I think, you know, we're getting close with Latimore

1162
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 4: coming back here, which would you know, certainly help the

1163
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:43,280
Speaker 4: New Orleans defense against a very limited Baltimore passing attack.

1164
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,319
Speaker 4: And we're seeing this Lamar Jackson pattern again, like he

1165
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:50,239
Speaker 4: comes out on fire, has a great first month, and

1166
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 4: then like I don't know, the Baltimore offense just sort

1167
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 4: of stagnates, and we're seeing that again happen two.

1168
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 1: Every year feels like, I mean, Bateman wasn't on the

1169
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 1: field last year's you know, it just seems like the

1170
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:03,960
Speaker 1: same thing, and he lost both running backs going into

1171
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 1: the season. I think you can get away with stuff.

1172
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:07,680
Speaker 1: I think you can get away with raw athleticism in

1173
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 1: September when teams are still ramping up and defenses are

1174
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 1: ramping up. But once defense has kind of locked themselves

1175
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 1: in a little bit and they have the stamina back,

1176
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 1: you can contain Lamar a.

1177
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:16,760
Speaker 2: Little bit easier.

1178
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:20,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree, And so yeah, I like New Orleans

1179
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:22,879
Speaker 4: a lot here, and I think this one's gonna play

1180
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,439
Speaker 4: under too, Like I think the total is just set

1181
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:26,320
Speaker 4: a little high.

1182
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 2: Okay, let's get to our favorite look ahead moments. What

1183
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:32,320
Speaker 2: we want to lock in right now. I'm telling you

1184
00:52:32,400 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 2: right now, for me, it's Seattle.

1185
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:35,719
Speaker 1: I already did it while Friedman was talking, so I'm

1186
00:52:35,719 --> 00:52:38,359
Speaker 1: already ahead of the game there, Friedman, what are your

1187
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:41,800
Speaker 1: favorite look ahead wagers to lock in early before things

1188
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:42,280
Speaker 1: go awry?

1189
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:44,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, New Orleans for all the reasons we just talked

1190
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 3: about Seattle. I'm with you there. I think there's a

1191
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:49,560
Speaker 3: lot of value in that line.

1192
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 2: And then.

1193
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:54,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe I'm gonna say Cincinnati, Cincinnati eight and a half.

1194
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 3: I think there's value there because I think this number

1195
00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:57,919
Speaker 3: should be above ten.

1196
00:52:58,640 --> 00:52:59,840
Speaker 2: All right, fits your thoughts.

1197
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:01,480
Speaker 5: I share two of them with freedmen.

1198
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 4: The Saints are the big one and Cincinnati. Those are

1199
00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:08,399
Speaker 4: the two that jump out for me. And then, man,

1200
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 4: I love getting the Seattle Arizona total under fifty, so

1201
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 4: I'm gonna hit the over there too.

1202
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 2: Okay, there you have it.

1203
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:17,799
Speaker 1: Don't forget to head over to Sleeper and check out

1204
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:21,360
Speaker 1: the over under game, and also check out their new daily.

1205
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 2: Fantasy game too. Some fun stuff happening on the Sleeper app.

1206
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:26,440
Speaker 1: And don't forget to download the bet MGM app, The

1207
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 1: King of Sports Books.

1208
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:29,880
Speaker 2: Go there right now. We can get it on the

1209
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 2: Android store of the Apple Store.

1210
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 1: And of course, don't forget subscribe to Betting pros We've

1211
00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 1: got the Monday night football live stream, the Thursday night

1212
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 1: football live stream, We've got the Sunday live streams.

1213
00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 2: We've got all the pods. Everything is here.

1214
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,359
Speaker 1: Subscribe to Betting Pros on YouTube, and don't forget flick

1215
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 1: that little belt and it goes ding for notifications, you know,

1216
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 1: every time a piece of content has dropped. That'll do

1217
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 1: it for us, But the story of the game goes

1218
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:49,960
Speaker 1: on for Matt and Pat.

1219
00:53:50,200 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 2: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids fires