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Speaker 1: All right, so let's take more of a look on

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Speaker 1: those Tesla earnings. Excuse me joining us now is Seth

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Speaker 1: Goldstein Energy and Resources equity strategist at morning Star to

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Speaker 1: discuss more. It seems like it was a beat to

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Speaker 1: what the analysts were expecting, although there's still a lot

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Speaker 1: of headwinds. I guess moving forward to the second half,

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Speaker 1: I wonder if Seth your take on these numbers. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that the numbers were in line with my view of

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Speaker 1: the cadience for the year. I was expecting, due to

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Speaker 1: the Shanghai COVID lockdowns and due to the ramp up

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Speaker 1: of the new new factories in Austin in Berlin, that

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Speaker 1: we would see lower profits quenchally versus the first quarter,

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Speaker 1: and then I expect the quenchial improvement as we move

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Speaker 1: on to quarter three and quarter four as a volume

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Speaker 1: production ramps back up. So so really very few surprises

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Speaker 1: from my outlook for the year, and so they maintain

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Speaker 1: the growth in sales. That was one one positive point.

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Speaker 1: Um the Shanghai factory is is so important and the

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Speaker 1: China sales is so important. We had that massive hiccup

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Speaker 1: in April. I think for a lot of listeners they

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Speaker 1: may not know that the capacity at the Shanghai factory

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Speaker 1: is seven fifty thousand cars and that's uh, that's three

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Speaker 1: times what the output is in Berlin for the company

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Speaker 1: and also in uh in Texas. UM, so it's very

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Speaker 1: important to get that back online. Uh you know, are

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Speaker 1: are you are you concerned that maybe that doesn't happen

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Speaker 1: to to the extent that Tesla would want it. I

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Speaker 1: don't think so, given that in June the shaun Hai

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Speaker 1: factory produced record numbers, and while it will be closed

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Speaker 1: in early July, I'd expect record production to ramp up again,

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Speaker 1: um in August and in September. So isn't it isn't

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Speaker 1: it is still one of the biggest concerns though. Isn't

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Speaker 1: this a big concern and that you know, lockdowns could

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Speaker 1: happen at any time in China? It is, it is

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Speaker 1: a possibility. However, I do think Tesla navigated pretty well

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Speaker 1: by by essentially having the workers, uh you know, isolate

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Speaker 1: within the factories to real allow some production that it

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Speaker 1: wasn't the full production stuff that they had earlier in

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Speaker 1: the second quarter, keeping that annual growth outlook of growth

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Speaker 1: for deliveries. I wonder is that a bit too ambitious.

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Speaker 1: You think, what sort of second half? What does the

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Speaker 1: second half look like in order to you know, deliver

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Speaker 1: that result. I think I think it's achievable. UM. On

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Speaker 1: the earnings call that just concluded, Elon Musk did say

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Speaker 1: that they had ramped up to over thirty thousand cars

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Speaker 1: a week globally among all the factories, and if they

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Speaker 1: were able to run at a mid thirty thousand per

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Speaker 1: week level average that in the second half of the year,

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Speaker 1: I think they could hit the growth rate. So I

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Speaker 1: think it's within a re they just have to execute.

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Speaker 1: M Seth. The stock is down I guess what thirty

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Speaker 1: percent or so this year? UM, what is your target

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Speaker 1: price on on Tesla? And do you think that that

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Speaker 1: current positioning is about right? UM, given what you know,

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Speaker 1: my favorite value estimate is seven fifty dollars a share,

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Speaker 1: So at the current stock price, I view Tesla as

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Speaker 1: as fairly value. With the stock trading right around my

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Speaker 1: fair value when it was at the start of the year,

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Speaker 1: I view Tesla is overvalued. I thought that the market

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Speaker 1: was pricing in a bowl case scenario where Tessla would

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Speaker 1: eventually overtake Bulmswagen and Toyota as the number one auto maker,

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Speaker 1: a scenario that I thought to be less likely because

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Speaker 1: Tesla is more of a luxury auto maker versus auto

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Speaker 1: maker that serves all markets. So so given given my

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Speaker 1: fair value estimate, I view the stock is fairly valued

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Speaker 1: right now. How are you viewing the competition right now?

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Speaker 1: You mentioned about some of these kind of old guard

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Speaker 1: automakers that are starting to kind of narrow that gap

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Speaker 1: when it comes to the lead that Tesla has an

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Speaker 1: e VS. You also have a lot of Chinese EV

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Speaker 1: brands out there, which they talked about during the earnings

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Speaker 1: call as well. Who who are the most likely competitors

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Speaker 1: for Tesla? Now you think, I think we're going to

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Speaker 1: see likely a lot of the cerystional automakers become Tesla's

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Speaker 1: major competitors. You know, Volkswagen UM is a a formidable

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Speaker 1: e V competitor when you look globally, b y D

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Speaker 1: isn't as a Chinese automaker that continues to sell more

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Speaker 1: and more electric vehicles each year. So we are going

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Speaker 1: to see some new entrants as well. But but I

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Speaker 1: think as we see the legacy automakers like your you know,

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Speaker 1: BMW's General Motors and Ford transition their production to electric vehicles,

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Speaker 1: then we're going to see pretty much every automaker producing

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Speaker 1: electric vehicles. And and most automakers will have that high

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Speaker 1: end luxury vehicle that will compete with Tesla. So set

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Speaker 1: net net at your next call on the target prices

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Speaker 1: it lower or higher. You know, it's given that the

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Speaker 1: earnings were in line with my view um for for

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Speaker 1: the year, I don't really see a ton of changes.

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Speaker 1: And and given the production numbers, you know, we we

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Speaker 1: left our fair value at seven fifty when Tesla released

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Speaker 1: production numbers. So all in all, everything seems to align

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Speaker 1: with our game for the year. All right, sounds good,

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Speaker 1: Thanks very much, Seth Seth Goldstein, energy and resource equity

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Speaker 1: strategist at morning Star