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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cockley and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: I want to get to Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall

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Speaker 2: at the White House. She's there now, and they just

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Speaker 2: heard from President Trump before he got on the helicopter.

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Speaker 2: So a couple of things to get into, Tyler. We

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Speaker 2: understand there's yet another counter offer when it comes to

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Speaker 2: the Department of Homeland Security, now closed for the better

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Speaker 2: part of two weeks, and there's of course a big

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Speaker 2: argument over ice restrictions that has been stopped down by

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Speaker 2: a disagreement over the use of masks and judicial warrants.

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Speaker 2: What are we hearing from the administration.

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Speaker 3: Well, Joe, at this point, these are reports that this

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Speaker 3: counteroffer has been sent over. But the timeline would make

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Speaker 3: perfect sense because keep in mind, next Friday could be

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Speaker 3: the potential first miss paycheck for nearly two hundred and

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Speaker 3: six one thousand federal workers that work at the Department

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Speaker 3: of Homeland Security. As this partial government shutdown enters into

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Speaker 3: its third week. Now, the big question is which of

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Speaker 3: those demands from Democrats could the White House be putting

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Speaker 3: on the table to potentially codify into law. You mentioned

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Speaker 3: perhaps the biggest two and most contentious ones that idea

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Speaker 3: of demasking federal agents while they're conducting immigration operations, as

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Speaker 3: well as the ask for new judicial warrant requirements. So

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Speaker 3: at this point we'll have to see how this ultimately evolves.

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Speaker 3: You have to keep in mind here that when we're

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Speaker 3: talking about the impacts of a partial DHS shutdown, it's

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Speaker 3: not really going to impact ICE, which is at the

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Speaker 3: center of this debate, since the agency had received about

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Speaker 3: seventy five billion dollars to tap over the next four

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Speaker 3: years under the One Big Beautiful Bill. And as we

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Speaker 3: get closer to that next Friday deadline at potential miss

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Speaker 3: paycheck Joe, it's hard to see if something could actually passed.

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Speaker 3: The Senate is out of town until Monday, and the

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Speaker 3: House doesn't have planned votes until Wednesday, and we know

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Speaker 3: that this is a compromise that ultimately will likely have

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Speaker 3: to pass both chambers.

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Speaker 2: Interesting and an important inflection point next week that Tyler

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Speaker 2: points out, I'll have to ask you as well about Iran.

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Speaker 2: Tyler to the President, was asked in the driveway, Iran

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Speaker 2: not negotiating in good faith and conscience. That does not

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Speaker 2: make us feel like strikes are off the table. What

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Speaker 2: are you hearing?

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Speaker 3: No, Joe the presidence that he's not happy with how

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Speaker 3: Iran is negotiating with tracks with a person familiar with

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Speaker 3: Washington's position telling us that special on voice Steve Witcoff

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Speaker 3: and the President's son in law Jared Kushner, emerged from

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Speaker 3: the third round of talks in Geneva yesterday disappointed with

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Speaker 3: the progress. That is a much different tone than what

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Speaker 3: we heard from Iran and the mediator's oman that had

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Speaker 3: struck a more optimistic tone. But the thing is, we

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Speaker 3: know that there are just such big disagreements at this point.

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Speaker 3: Of course, the main focus of this round of talks

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Speaker 3: are the Iran's nuclear program, and there are disagreements about

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Speaker 3: how much domestic enrichment capacity, if at all, Iran should

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Speaker 3: be allowed to have. But we have repeatedly heard from

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Speaker 3: US officials that they need to see some other agenda

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Speaker 3: items on the table, including Iran's ballistic missile program as

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Speaker 3: well as its support for proxy militia groups. There's a

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Speaker 3: few different developments that happened just today that could throw

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Speaker 3: an extra wrinkle into these talks, including Joe Bloomberg News

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Speaker 3: reporting that Iran has been conducting extra activity at these

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Speaker 3: uranium enrichment sites that were bombed last summer during Operation

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Speaker 3: Midnight Hammer. That's according to these un atomic inspectors that

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Speaker 3: haven't been allowed to examine these sites, and it is

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Speaker 3: raising some big questions about what is ultimately happening at

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Speaker 3: the negotiating table.

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Speaker 2: It's going to Palm Beach for the weekend, Tyler. That's

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Speaker 2: the plan, from Texas to Florida.

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Speaker 3: That is what is on the official schedule as of now.

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Speaker 3: So we'll keep our eyes up for any developments. You

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Speaker 3: mentioned President Trump heading down to Texas. This is part

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Speaker 3: of that domestic tour as we are here talking about

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Speaker 3: foreign policy, but we know that the White House over

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Speaker 3: the past week, with the State of the Union, has

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Speaker 3: been trying to refocus that narrative around domestic policy and

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Speaker 3: affordability concerned. He's going to be speaking at an energy

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Speaker 3: cost event, but then also we'll be keeping our eyes

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Speaker 3: if we get any sort of endorsement for that hotly

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Speaker 3: contested primary that we are all watching to see how.

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Speaker 4: That one shakes out.

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Speaker 2: That'd be huge. John Cornan is on the plane with him. Tyler, I,

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Speaker 2: you know, listen, maybe they'll have a moment, maybe this

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Speaker 2: will be different by the time they land. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall.

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Speaker 2: You need her on that wall. She's our Washington correspondent

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Speaker 2: on the North lawn of the White House and doing

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Speaker 2: a great job. As we consider the president's next moves

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Speaker 2: with Iran, he may have to deal with Congress. Then again,

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Speaker 2: I don't think Republicans are much in the mood for

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Speaker 2: and even some Democrats, asked Josh Gottheimer, are not in

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Speaker 2: the mood to support a war powers resolution. One man

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Speaker 2: who is we spoke with last evening on balance of power.

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Speaker 2: A Congressman, Jake Auchincloss, the Democrat from Massachusetts, notably a

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Speaker 2: Marine Corps combat veteran who served in Afghanistan, was not

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Speaker 2: mincing words. Here's what he said.

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Speaker 4: If the President wants to engage in coercive diplomacy against

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Speaker 4: Iran in order to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon,

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Speaker 4: ballistic missiles, or to continue funding of proxy terror forces,

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Speaker 4: I think that's appropriate, and I support that course of diplomacy.

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Speaker 4: But if he thinks he's gonna use American warplanes to

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Speaker 4: conduct an aerial strike, he needs congresses say so.

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Speaker 2: We'll see about that. As we had the voice of

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Speaker 2: Richard Haas, of course, the President Emeritus the Council on

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Speaker 2: Foreign Relations, mister hask great to have you back as

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Speaker 2: part of our conversation here on Bloomberg TV and radio.

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Speaker 2: And I'm deeply curious to hear what you have in mind.

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Speaker 2: As the President just now in the White House driveway

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Speaker 2: says that he is not happy with the way Iran

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Speaker 2: is negotiating, going further to say that he does not

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Speaker 2: believe that they are well intended at the negotiating table.

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Speaker 2: Does this give you pause? Do you expect strikes this weekend?

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Speaker 5: I have no idea what they'll be strikes or when

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Speaker 5: they might be. The real question is what is it

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Speaker 5: the United States is asking of Iran? What are we

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Speaker 5: asking when it comes to their nuclear activities? Are we

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Speaker 5: prepared to be serious about asking them to reign in

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Speaker 5: their ballistic missile program, their support for proxies. You don't

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Speaker 5: hear people talking much about protecting the internal opposition so.

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Speaker 6: We just have to decide how ambitious we're going to be.

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Speaker 5: Obviously, the more ambitious we decide to be and what

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Speaker 5: we ask, the less likely we're going to get an agreement.

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Speaker 5: That means we've got to use military force. Presumably, Well,

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Speaker 5: then you've got to ask yourself what is military force

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Speaker 5: likely to accomplish? What are the risks of using military

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Speaker 5: force given how Iron could retaliate. So the fact that

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Speaker 5: we're happy or unhappy with the Iranians, the first question

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Speaker 5: is what is it we are asking for and how

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Speaker 5: essentially how serious are we about demanding it.

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Speaker 2: Well, as we often have seen with the administration, there's

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Speaker 2: been an evolving sort of justification that began with protection

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Speaker 2: of protesters. Remember that was weeks ago. Donald Trump said

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Speaker 2: on social media help is on its way, and he

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Speaker 2: actually took credit for Iran for Tehran backing off threats

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Speaker 2: to hang protesters at the State of the Union, though

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Speaker 2: Richard Hassei talked about more than thirty thousand protesters being killed.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if they think that we've abandoned them

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Speaker 2: or what they think of the prospect of strikes. But

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Speaker 2: now it seems to be about not acquiring a nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 2: And then we add another log on the fire with

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Speaker 2: ballistic missiles. Is this too much, As the President says,

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Speaker 2: Tehran is not negotiating good faith, Is it too much

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Speaker 2: for their negotiators to follow.

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Speaker 5: Well, again, if we ask Iran to give up every

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Speaker 5: aspect of a nuclear program, they're ballistic missiles and the rest.

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Speaker 5: They're going to tell us to take a hike. And

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Speaker 5: they believe that they can put pressure on us. In

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Speaker 5: some ways. They may be bad. They may think they

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Speaker 5: are better positioned to take a punch over time then

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Speaker 5: we can deliver one. There's things they could do to

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Speaker 5: raise the price of oil, given how important affordability is

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Speaker 5: in this country politically, they may be calculating that's not

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Speaker 5: something this president really wants.

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Speaker 6: So we're still at the stage.

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Speaker 5: I think, yes, we're negotiating, but some of this is

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Speaker 5: also pre negotiating. It's bluffing, and I think, all again,

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Speaker 5: using a boxing analogy, again, I think the two sides

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Speaker 5: are still feeling.

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Speaker 6: Each other out.

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Speaker 2: Okay, little ropid dope maybe, But I do wonder, with

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Speaker 2: the prospect of talks being scheduled for next week, if

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Speaker 2: that matters based on the behavior you've seen by this administration,

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Speaker 2: well in.

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Speaker 6: The past the United States.

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Speaker 5: Last spring we used force even though talks were scheduled.

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Speaker 5: So you know what could drive things forward is if

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Speaker 5: the United States thinks that talks are hopeless or that

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Speaker 5: they see activities as you suggested, possibly taking place with

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Speaker 5: the your audience. We're trying to move or hide some

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Speaker 5: important technology. But at the moment, my guess is the

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Speaker 5: president's still improvising. I don't think he's decided what the

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Speaker 5: United States is going to ask for, much less what

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Speaker 5: it's going to do if it doesn't get it.

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Speaker 2: Okay, that's what I wanted to get to. Richard Hos

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Speaker 2: believes Donald Trump is improvising, which could be dangerous in

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Speaker 2: its own right, But I guess this is the way

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Speaker 2: he operates, right. We talked to Bob McNally Richard at

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Speaker 2: Rapidan Energy, who's got a real sense of the potential

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Speaker 2: fallout here when it comes to what Iran might do,

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Speaker 2: whether it's a bloody nose strike or a much longer campaign.

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Speaker 2: Here's what he said.

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Speaker 7: If Iran chose to make the horror moves straight unsafe,

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Speaker 7: it could do so for weeks squat like back in

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Speaker 7: April when the houties absorbed fifty two days of pummeling

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Speaker 7: by the US military and we did not stop them

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Speaker 7: from making Babo Mondabain. Say, Iran has much better weaponry,

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Speaker 7: better coastline than the Uties. So I can almost see

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Speaker 7: spikes and reversals here. And if it gets to a

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Speaker 7: prolonged hormus disruption, well over one hundred dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 2: And of course Iran knows this, Richard, how far do

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Speaker 2: you think Iran would go to retaliate?

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Speaker 5: Look, Iaran will go pretty far if it needs to

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Speaker 5: in order to one preserve the regime and two that again,

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Speaker 5: they may calculate that an extended conflict where the price

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Speaker 5: of oil goes up, that they're better positioned than we

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Speaker 5: are to hang in there. Look, the part of the

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Speaker 5: administration problem is they've amassed all this force, but they

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Speaker 5: haven't really thought it through.

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Speaker 6: I call it an armada in search of a strategy.

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Speaker 5: I really don't think we've thought through where we're going

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Speaker 5: to go with this, and not just what's a desirable outcome,

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Speaker 5: We also have to think about what's an achievable outcome.

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Speaker 6: And I don't hear a lot of people talking about that.

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Speaker 2: Wow, you are, of course someone who is steeped in

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Speaker 2: many years of diplomacy, and I wonder your thoughts about

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Speaker 2: the two gentlemen at the table, specifically Jared Kushner. It's

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Speaker 2: been suggested that his relationship as the son in law

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Speaker 2: to the President of the United States actually brings leveraging credibility.

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Speaker 8: Is that true.

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Speaker 5: I tend not to talk about people. I focus on policy.

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Speaker 5: No one doubts that both he and Steve Whitcoff have

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Speaker 5: extraordinarily close relations with this president, which makes them both credible.

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Speaker 5: But what matters more than their credibility is what policies

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Speaker 5: are they authorized to advance?

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Speaker 6: And I would keep the focus on.

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Speaker 5: That more than personal relationships or anything else interesting.

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Speaker 2: There have been questions about whether the administration is not

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Speaker 2: only tapping the right people, but is not using enough

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Speaker 2: of its expertise and institutional knowledge in this case, and

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Speaker 2: I guess I would ask you. I know you don't

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Speaker 2: want to talk about individuals in their case, but we

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Speaker 2: have a Secretary of State who's going to be on

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Speaker 2: his way to Israel in the coming days. How important

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Speaker 2: will that visit be?

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Speaker 6: Well, again, I.

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Speaker 5: Think the Israelis got the message when the Prime Minister

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Speaker 5: visited the President here a few weeks ago to hang

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Speaker 5: back the United States once. I think a deal if

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Speaker 5: we can get one without a military exchange. So I

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Speaker 5: think the question is making the Israelis comfortable providing certain

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Speaker 5: types of equipment air defense against Iron's ballistic missiles. Maybe

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Speaker 5: we'll reach some understandings about what Israel would do or

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Speaker 5: could do with our support if Iran widened the war

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Speaker 5: and attacked it, but I don't think that's important. What's

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Speaker 5: the more important again is what is the United States

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Speaker 5: going to demand, Whether Iron will agree, and the more

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Speaker 5: ambitious we are, they're not going to agree, and that

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Speaker 5: what we're prepared to do, and how what Iran's prepared

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Speaker 5: to do in retaliation. So is reel is important? But

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Speaker 5: I wouldn't say right now it is central got it.

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Speaker 2: When we consider off ramps Richard, And based on what

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Speaker 2: we've seen the administration do in Ukraine, in Venezuela, even Greenland,

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Speaker 2: Iran knows who it's dealing with. And I wonder if

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Speaker 2: an economic arrangement is how this ends, maybe in exchange

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Speaker 2: for a lifting of sanctions when it comes to critical minerals,

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Speaker 2: when it comes to energy, is that something that would

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Speaker 2: tempt this president?

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Speaker 5: I hope not in this case, because again I think

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Speaker 5: the President's right when he talks about a ceiling on

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Speaker 5: Iran nuclear capabilities. The Israelis are concerned about ballistic missiles.

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Speaker 5: I don't want to see happen here what happened in Venezuela,

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Speaker 5: where essentially we cut a deal and ignored the population.

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Speaker 5: I don't want to see the Iranian people somehow cast

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Speaker 5: aside simply because the United States wants some sort of arrangement.

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Speaker 6: In the oil sector.

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Speaker 5: So I would hope that that kind of a deal

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Speaker 5: is not on anybody's mind.

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Speaker 2: Interesting, what are you watching this weekend? What should our

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Speaker 2: listeners and viewers keep in mind as we go through

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Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday.

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Speaker 6: I think to watch.

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Speaker 5: More than anything is whether there are activities on the

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Speaker 5: Iranian side that would suggest somehow that time is of

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Speaker 5: the essence what each side says about the negotiations.

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Speaker 6: But again, this is a crisis. Let's be clear.

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Speaker 5: It's hard to answer your question because this crisis came

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Speaker 5: about without a rationale. It wasn't as though Iran triggered

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Speaker 5: it by its nuclear program or ballistic missiles or proxies. Yes,

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Speaker 5: it did terrible things to its own people, we threaten them,

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Speaker 5: then we did nothing. So two months later we are

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Speaker 5: where we are. So it's hard to know what to

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Speaker 5: look for next because nothing. Essentially, you'd be hard pressed

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Speaker 5: to explain how it is we got to this point.

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Speaker 2: When you see Saudi Arabia and Iran both accelerating exports

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Speaker 2: of crude, what does that tell you about the status

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Speaker 2: of talks.

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Speaker 5: What that tells you is they want to keep some cushion,

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Speaker 5: some stability in the oil market, as you see in

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Speaker 5: oil prices are going off what plus or minus ten

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Speaker 5: percent over the last couple of weeks, So the Soyties

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Speaker 5: tend to be want to stabilize things, and it's a

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Speaker 5: way of also signaling the Iranians that their ability to

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Speaker 5: inflict pain on the world through oil pricing is not

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Speaker 5: as great as they think it is.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you oil prices are on the move here,

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Speaker 2: Brent up two and a half percent, WTI is as well.

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Speaker 2: We're back to sixty seven dollars a barrel almost in Texas, Richards,

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Speaker 2: So investors are certainly paying attention to this, and we're

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Speaker 2: awfully glad to have you with us. Richard Haass, President Emeritus,

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Speaker 2: the Council on Foreign Relations. We thank you for the insights.

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Speaker 1: As always, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 1: Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Remarkable just days after the Supreme Court ruling. In fact,

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Speaker 2: well that was a week ago today, wasn't it? A

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Speaker 2: remarkable headline on the terminal. President Trump faces two thousand

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Speaker 2: tariff lawsuits following the Supreme Court loss, knowing of course

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Speaker 2: he's taking actions under a different auspices to continue tariffs.

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Speaker 2: But this has been a pretty noisy week. And as

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Speaker 2: they say, send lawyers guns and money, because this is

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Speaker 2: going to be how we spend the rest of the year.

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Speaker 2: No one knows this more than my good friend David Weston.

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Speaker 2: I'm really excited he can spend some time with us

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Speaker 2: in the flesh, the host of Bloomberg Wall Street Week, David,

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Speaker 2: it's great to see you. This has been a huge

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Speaker 2: story for you leading up to the ruling, and I

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Speaker 2: feel like I don't know that we have a lot

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Speaker 2: more clarity than we did a week ago.

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Speaker 9: Do we a noisy week but also an exhausting week

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Speaker 9: for you? I mean, among the things that was an

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Speaker 9: hour and forty seven minutes that makes a late night

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Speaker 9: data with this State of the Union. Yeah, it's been

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Speaker 9: quite quite a weekend. And it does include a course

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Speaker 9: the terriff issue. But we had on Jason Furman because,

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Speaker 9: as you know Joe so well, in some ways, that

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Speaker 9: State of the Union was largely the state of the

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Speaker 9: economic Union, because so much it was about domestic economics

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Speaker 9: that President Trump was talking about. And so we asked

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Speaker 9: Jason Furman, who after all did was the chief economist

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Speaker 9: for President Obama, what he thought about the economy, and

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Speaker 9: he said, it's not the horror the Democrats want to say,

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Speaker 9: it's not the turnaround the Republicans want to And we

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Speaker 9: asked about the terriff issues that you've identified, Joe, and

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Speaker 9: specifically how much difference does that make for the economy

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Speaker 9: whether we have those tariffs or not. This is part

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Speaker 9: of our discussion.

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Speaker 10: I think it is subtracted a bit from growth and

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Speaker 10: added a meaningful amount to inflation. Inflation one is easy

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Speaker 10: to prove. You can just look through the different types

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Speaker 10: of goods and furniture, consumer electronics, and you see those

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Speaker 10: prices rising, and normally you would have expected them to

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Speaker 10: be stable at a time like this, So it really

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Speaker 10: is showing up. Is it a dramatic recession or an apocalypse?

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Speaker 10: Definitely not. In fact, the models never predicted that you

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Speaker 10: would have something that dramatic. But that doesn't mean that

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Speaker 10: we should be blase about what might be tens of

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Speaker 10: billions of dollars of damage to the economy.

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Speaker 9: Business leaders often talk about uncertainty and how that is

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Speaker 9: really a dampener on growth for them. Whatever the tariff

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Speaker 9: rate is, tell me what it is and I'll deal

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Speaker 9: with it. As opposed to I'm not sure. There's been

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Speaker 9: a lot of uncertainty, both in the way the terroifts

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Speaker 9: were imposed and now with the Supreme Court decision. Can

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Speaker 9: you approximate what that might mean for the economy. Is

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Speaker 9: it having an effect on the economy.

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Speaker 10: Probably it leads to some delay of investment, some desire

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Speaker 10: to do things overseas rather than in the United States.

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Speaker 10: Supreme Court decision I think ultimately will give us more

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Speaker 10: certainty because the AIPA tariffs that the president had been

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Speaker 10: doing before, he'd been constantly changing them at a drop

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Speaker 10: of a hat. He didn't like the tone of voice,

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Speaker 10: didn't like a television ad in another country. You know,

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Speaker 10: tariffs go up. The new authorities that he's still going

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Speaker 10: to have, like Section three oh one, take more time

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Speaker 10: and effort. They're hard to change them on a dime.

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Speaker 10: And so if he wants to have high tariffs, we're

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Speaker 10: going to have high tariffs. He can't quite change them

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Speaker 10: on a whim in the way he was doing before

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Speaker 10: under the new legal regime.

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Speaker 9: So, Joe, as you know, that's Jason Furman, who was

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Speaker 9: the chair of the Council of econom advisor and President Obama.

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Speaker 9: He is a professor of economics up at Harvard, and

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Speaker 9: so he basically said said is she goes. Although I

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Speaker 9: want to add one thing. You will remember, because you

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Speaker 9: were recovering a job, the president saying we can replace

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Speaker 9: the income tax, yes with tariffs? How about that? And Jason,

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Speaker 9: for who's a very measured economist, had one word ludacris.

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Speaker 2: Ludacris.

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Speaker 9: He said, there is no way that could ever happen.

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Speaker 2: Wow, I'm just to dangle that out there in a

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Speaker 2: state of the Union is pretty remarkable. I hope they're

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Speaker 2: not going to throw us out of here, James, let

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Speaker 2: us know. But delayed investment were the two words that

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Speaker 2: struck me there, because when you talk about uncertainty, it's

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Speaker 2: as simple as that. Right, President Trump talks about trillions

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Speaker 2: being invested in this country, But how many more have

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Speaker 2: been delayed?

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Speaker 9: Well exactly. And one of the questions is what happens

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Speaker 9: to all those deals, supposed deals. We'll see what happens

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Speaker 9: on the investment like Japan, for example, with five hundred

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Speaker 9: and fifty billion dollars going to be investing here. Well, now,

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Speaker 9: when it's not so clear that President Trump had the

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Speaker 9: authority to actually negotiate those under AEPA, what happens to

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Speaker 9: all that investment? And how material is that? Or will

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Speaker 9: countries decide they'd just as soon go along rather have

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Speaker 9: President Trump angry with him?

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Speaker 2: Boy, And to the point he made about Section three

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Speaker 2: oh one, for instance, taking a lot more time. Is

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Speaker 2: Wall Street ready for a six month investigation? What's this

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Speaker 2: going to require?

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Speaker 9: Well, they've had it before, you remember, and Trump won

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Speaker 9: in the first version to three to zero one against China,

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Speaker 9: and they go through it and you know, as I say,

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Speaker 9: does this kind adjust it just about anything? They just

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Speaker 9: like to know what the rules are. And as a

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Speaker 9: practical matter, it's it's what about ten eleven percent effective

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Speaker 9: tariff right right now after this all happens. That's not goods.

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Speaker 9: Goods are only twenty five percent of the total economy,

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Speaker 9: so it's not quite as massive as some people have

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Speaker 9: warned in the past. But that cuts both ways. It

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Speaker 9: isn't as bad perhaps as some Democrats will say, and

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Speaker 9: as Jason Furbn says, it might not be as good

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Speaker 9: as the Republicans like to believe.

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Speaker 2: Very very interesting, and I'll be curious to see how

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Speaker 2: Republicans in Congress whether this once particularly we get through

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Speaker 2: primary season. David, is this where the President's going to

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Speaker 2: find the line?

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Speaker 9: Well, also, you would know this better than I, Joe,

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Speaker 9: But it seems to me it's going to be a

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Speaker 9: question of what the constituents are thinking back home. If

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Speaker 9: inflation kicks in again, and there's a lot of stimulus

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Speaker 9: coming in under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and

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Speaker 9: there's a lot of stimulus coming in if inflation starts

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Speaker 9: picking back up again. A lot of what the President

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Speaker 9: has said about affordability. Just being a ruse from the

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Speaker 9: Democrats might be uncomfortable for some members of Congress, particularly

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Speaker 9: in the House, going back and campaigning in their home districts.

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Speaker 2: Well, we'll hear and see that full interview with Jason

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Speaker 2: Furman on the program this evening, Bloomberg Wall Street Week

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Speaker 2: with the Great David Weston. Great to see in person

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Speaker 2: David here at World Headquarters in New York, as we

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Speaker 2: assembled our political panel for their take on what we're

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Speaker 2: talking about. And it really just comes down to an

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Speaker 2: incredibly long week in the world of politics, so we

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Speaker 2: could go scout is Tuesday ninth, the longest State of

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Speaker 2: the Union address in human history, and we have Rick

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Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno to break it down. Bloomberg Politics contributors.

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Speaker 2: Genie is our Democratic strategist democracy visiting fellow at Harvard

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Speaker 2: Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick is our Republican strategist and

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Speaker 2: partner at Stone Court Capital. Genie, we've talked a lot

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Speaker 2: about finding the line, so to speak, on Capitol Hill,

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Speaker 2: and a number of Republicans have expressed their concern about

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Speaker 2: moving forward with tariffs under various justifications, whether it's three

438
00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,440
Speaker 2: to zero one or something different the Democrats have, he say,

439
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 2: and where this goes? If Republicans aren't seizing on this

440
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 2: in Congress, does the legislature stay out.

441
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 11: Of the mix, you know, unless something happens, as as

442
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,679
Speaker 11: Donald Trump knows all too well in November and Democrats

443
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 11: take the gavel, or you know, we we see Gonzales

444
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 11: moved out and we are looking at an even house.

445
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,880
Speaker 11: I mean, there's there's a we're so tight in these margins,

446
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 11: there's a lot of opportunity, but at this point, you know,

447
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 11: the President said during the State of the Union that

448
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 11: congressional legislation wouldn't be next And to me, as a

449
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 11: political scientist, that's terribly disheartening because he missed the entire

450
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 11: message of Neil Gorsich's opinion, which was that American government

451
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 11: depends on an active legislating Congress, not an active legislating

452
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 11: president through EOS and certainly not legislating from the bench.

453
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 11: So terribly disheartening for those of us in the political

454
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 11: science realm to hear him say that.

455
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 2: Ricky work in the investment worlds, what are you hearing

456
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 2: when you have conversations with people about delayed investments to

457
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 2: Jason Furman's point.

458
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 12: Yeah, I think it's just a lack of clarity of

459
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 12: a public policy that you know, over time you would

460
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 12: hope get smoother and easier, and instead, certainly this week

461
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 12: has been incredibly disruptive, and so I think that all all,

462
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 12: you know, investors want is sort of a level playing

463
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 12: field and some certainty around policy. And I think it's

464
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 12: a good example where we haven't had a lot of

465
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 12: certainty around the policy the Trump administration, especially as it

466
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 12: relates to the tariffs, and David's right, they haven't been

467
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 12: as punitive as everybody thought they were going to be,

468
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 12: certainly not as threatened on Liberation Day as we thought.

469
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 12: But at the end of the day, you're making decisions

470
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 12: based on years of investment return, and you know you're

471
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 12: seeing changes in public policy on a daily basis. You know,

472
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 12: the President came out just this last weekend and said

473
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,439
Speaker 12: he was going to up those tariffs by fifteen percent

474
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 12: post Scotis ruling, and it turns out when they were

475
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 12: filed they were only ten percent. So we part making

476
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 12: decisions on Saturday would have had a different question than

477
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 12: they got on Monday. So in that regard, we certainly

478
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 12: haven't had a lot of certainty to work with.

479
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,159
Speaker 2: And that's the truth. And then you start wondering how

480
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 2: they feel at the Federal Reserve about this. But boy Q,

481
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 2: the lawyer's genie, this is really something. More than one

482
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 2: hundred companies have filed new lawsuits since the ruling, just

483
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 2: in the last week. You talk about finding the line

484
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill, maybe we're finding the line when it

485
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 2: comes to corporate America. These are not small companies FedEx

486
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 2: Dice in Dollar General, Bauschan, lom Brooks Brothers on holding

487
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 2: lrel The justices, of course, were silent on the refund question.

488
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 2: Genie or any of these companies going to get money?

489
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 11: I don't know if they're going to get it, But

490
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 11: I think if we step back and look at this

491
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 11: from a political political lens, wildly unpopular these tariffs are.

492
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 11: The President has doubled, tripled down on them, and now

493
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 11: we're talking about this big boon for lawyers who have

494
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 11: filed all these lawsuits on behalf of these behemoth major

495
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 11: and smaller companies. And do they get refunds? I don't know.

496
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 11: But for somebody who ran promising to help the middle

497
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 11: and lower class and quite frankly run one on that

498
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 11: a lot of people when they go to vote in

499
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 11: November are going to be scratching their head to say,

500
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 11: wait a minute, you're giving back refunds of our tax

501
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 11: money to these big companies when that those costs were

502
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 11: passed to consumers in many cases, why aren't we getting refunds, which,

503
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 11: by the way, is what the President said he was

504
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 11: going to do with these tariffs. So this is a

505
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 11: huge political mess for the president and the administration as

506
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 11: they march into midterms where people are very unhappy about

507
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 11: tariff's inflation and how he is handling the economy, and

508
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 11: he's done this to himself, which is the most mind

509
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 11: numbing part of this.

510
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 2: The thirty seconds left, Rick, will the president regret offering

511
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 2: two thousand dollars checks or promising two thousand dollars checks

512
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 2: to all Americans?

513
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 3: Oh?

514
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 12: I think that's pretty much overtaken by events. I mean,

515
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 12: it's such a scrambled deck right now. I don't think

516
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 12: anybody has any expectations. But kudos to Corporate America. FedEx

517
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 12: already has a website where you can apply for your

518
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 12: YAH return, So I mean Corporate America will fill this vacuum.

519
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 12: If the Trump administration's smart, they'll just get silent on it.

520
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 2: Once again. I think Costco is the first they're leading

521
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 2: the charge on that. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino great

522
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 2: content and great conversation. As always, Thank you both for.

523
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

524
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

525
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 1: Alma Coarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

526
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

527
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 1: US live on YouTube.

528
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 2: Got a down down over six undred points. Dix is up,

529
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,719
Speaker 2: grippedoes down. Got to talk to Mike Reagan about why

530
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Managing editor for US Equities also with me in

531
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 2: the flesh. Mike, It's great to see you. The pessimism

532
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 2: coming off of this earning season is something I guess

533
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 2: unless your name is Michael Dell. Today it's been pretty

534
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 2: much straight down for tech even in video with this

535
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 2: Knock the Cover off the Ball report, couldn't get investors excited?

536
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 2: Is this going to be kind of if not correction,

537
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 2: a digestive phase that lasts an extended period of time.

538
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 13: You know, Joe, hard to really predict and say for sure,

539
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 13: but you know, you make a good point about it

540
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 13: potentially just being a correction. I mean, look, you look

541
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 13: at this stock market. It went pretty much straight up

542
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 13: from the volatility last April when Trump announced all his

543
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 13: tariffs that he later sort of softened all the rates on.

544
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 13: But I really think, you know, we've seen this shift

545
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 13: in the narrative surrounding AI that's really hard to ignore.

546
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 13: You know, it went from being you know, the big

547
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 13: beneficiaries of this, in Vidia and alphabet and the other

548
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 13: companies really leading the market higher to sort of two

549
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 13: different perspectives of pessimism. One, are these companies really getting

550
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 13: you know, over their skis too much, as far as

551
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 13: the hundreds of billions of dollars in capex that they're

552
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 13: investing in data centers. But two, you know, everyone is

553
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 13: admitting that AI is a truly disruptive technology. So if

554
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 13: you look at the biggest losers this month, it's really

555
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 13: those software companies. Brutal, Yeah, you know you're into it's

556
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 13: the tax software workday.

557
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 2: Microsoft.

558
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:34,159
Speaker 13: Yeah, Yeah, it's it's just you know, this vibe coding

559
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 13: idea that AI is going to be able to basically

560
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 13: replace a lot of these software as a service revenue

561
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 13: streams is really alarming. And then you pile on top

562
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 13: of that, so many of the private credit companies were

563
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 13: heavily invested in software companies, So you're looking at companies

564
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 13: like Apollo Global KKR really getting beaten down this week.

565
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 13: You know, on top of that, you have market financial

566
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 13: services in London though, the mortgage company running into trouble

567
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 13: there and worries about all their counterparties. In the US,

568
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 13: Black Rocks private debt fund cutting its dividend today. You know,

569
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 13: I hate to use that cockroach analogy, but it really

570
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 13: is what people are talking about, that the cockroaches in

571
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 13: this private credit space are really starting to scurry about.

572
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 2: At the same time though, and I always come back

573
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 2: to this point when we talk. If you look at

574
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 2: the equal weight S and P five hundred, yeah, it's

575
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 2: basically at an all time hunt.

576
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 13: It's amazing.

577
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 2: How often do you see this much volatility beneath the surface,

578
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 2: but so much stability in the indexes and a rotation

579
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 2: that apparently is lifting the equal weight to new heights.

580
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 13: Yeah, it's really fascinating. And even on you know, I

581
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 13: don't know about today, but yesterday, days we've seen these

582
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 13: really big drops in the S and P five hundred.

583
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 13: Most stocks in the index are up, and that equal

584
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 13: weight index is outperforming by something like six or seven

585
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 13: percent this year. It's remarkable. So, you know, it's it's

586
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 13: not so much investors completely giving up on the market,

587
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 13: but really trying to focus on you know, some people

588
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 13: are calling it the halo stocks, heavy asset low obsolescence,

589
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 13: meaning that's right, those sort of energy companies.

590
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 2: Utilities, vibes of those businesses.

591
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 13: Yeah, the companies that can't get put out of business

592
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 13: by AI. At the same time, you're starting to see

593
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 13: the valuations and those creep up to somewhat alarming heights,

594
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 13: you know, evaluations you're not used to seeing in these sectors.

595
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 13: So you're right that it is the story is more

596
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 13: about a rotation, but from the market cap weighted SMP level,

597
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 13: it is, you know, it is a downdraft. This month

598
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 13: are really the worst month. We're poised for about percent and.

599
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 2: A half not a disaster, one and a half percent. Yeah,

600
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 2: yourself a lot more painful.

601
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 13: It feels a lot more painful than that. Especially, you

602
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 13: know when you look at some of these individual movements,

603
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 13: you know, these software companies that you're used to sort

604
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 13: of leading the growth in the index really getting hammered

605
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 13: this month.

606
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 2: Single stock nightmare. But the indexes are hanging in. Mike,

607
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 2: thank you so much. With February under the bridge, well

608
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 2: almost at least Mike Reagan reporting for Bloomberg managing editor

609
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 2: US Equities doing a lot more than reporting it with

610
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: us here on balance of Power. This is the part

611
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 2: of the program where we get to hang out with

612
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 2: the cool kids, because the real reason we came here

613
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 2: was not for the Buddy movie with Charlie Pellett. It

614
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 2: was for these two weekends will never be the same

615
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg or hopefully for you in your household. You've

616
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 2: got the clock set. I already told you it's at

617
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 2: seven am, and I'm not going to let something like

618
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 2: this pass by without trying to be here, witness it

619
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 2: in person, maybe even be part of it. And they

620
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 2: were kind to invite me. This is of course, David

621
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 2: Gore at Christina Raffini. You've heard about Bloomberg this weekend.

622
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 2: They've had no opportunities to talk about it on the air,

623
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: so we wanted to bring him in right now because, look,

624
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 2: this isn't some wacky variety show or Morning Zoo show

625
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 2: unless you guys tell you surprise. Yeah, I didn't expect

626
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 2: that at all, but it's actually you guys are covering

627
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 2: hard news and Christina that begins with the Democratic Leader

628
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 2: of the House.

629
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 3: It does.

630
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 14: We actually just wrop that interview this afternoon and we

631
00:31:58,320 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 14: asked a variety questions. One of the good things about

632
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 14: the show is a bit like your show. We've got

633
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 14: time to talk to these people. It's not a two

634
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 14: or three revolutionary We've got time to sit down, run

635
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:08,719
Speaker 14: them through all the questions you want to ask them.

636
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 14: My question for any leader in the Democratic Party is

637
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 14: always who is in charge of your party? We ask

638
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 14: that and a couple other questions to the leader, and

639
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 14: I think we've I think we've got that sound for you. Now,

640
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 14: do you think your party is united enough to hold

641
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 14: that line? And who is the leader of the Democratic

642
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 14: Party right now?

643
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 15: I'm the House Democratic Leader. We've got great members of

644
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 15: the House Democratic Caucus as well that are leading in

645
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 15: a wide variety of different ways. It's not my job

646
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 15: to make determinations as to who's the Democratic Party leader.

647
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 15: What I can tell you is that Democrats have won

648
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 15: elections consistently for the last fourteen months. And so whoever

649
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 15: the leader may be, he or she is doing a

650
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:53,719
Speaker 15: great job, because literally, we haven't lost a meaningful election

651
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 15: in the entirety of the Trump administration, winning races up

652
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 15: and down the ballot across the country in places like

653
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 15: New Jersey, in New York, in Virginia, in California, certainly

654
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 15: during the off year elections last November, in Mississippi, in Georgia,

655
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 15: three state Supreme Court races that we swept in Pennsylvania

656
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 15: and then went on to win races in Florida, the

657
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 15: Miami mayors race for the first time in thirty years,

658
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 15: and of course these special elections that we've seen dramatic overperformance,

659
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 15: most recently in Texas by thirty one points, and then

660
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 15: in Louisiana, the home state of Mike Johnson and Steve

661
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 15: Scalise by thirty seven points in terms of an overperformance

662
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 15: from the Trump number. So collectively, we're going to continue

663
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 15: to message and communicate to the American people our values,

664
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 15: juxtapose that with the extremism that the Republicans are unleashing

665
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 15: on the American people, and let the chips fall where

666
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 15: they may and emboldened.

667
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 8: He had all that at the ready. He seems like

668
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 8: he was ready to rattle that off.

669
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 2: Wow boyd, what a moment for him. As the world

670
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 2: predicts a landslide essentially for the House in November.

671
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 8: Well, the world is maybe predicting that he is as well.

672
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 8: Of course, he said that at the press conference at

673
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 8: the beginning of this retreat, that the Democrats in the

674
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 8: House had and landsdown over these last few days. He

675
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 8: seemed to me and Christina correct me if I'm wrong,

676
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 8: very confident about the path forward here. And the first

677
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 8: thing we asked him about was the status of that

678
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 8: affordability agenda that he and other Democrats so often talk about.

679
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 8: He was prepared as well to kind of tick through

680
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 8: what the tenants of that plan are. And you know,

681
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 8: a lot of our conversation, which again you can hear

682
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 8: in full tomorrow morning, centered on the way that Democrats

683
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 8: varied as they are are going to kind of unify

684
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 8: and convey that message to the American electorate, that of morse,

685
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 8: Joe is the big challenge here if this party can

686
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 8: stay unified and focused here going into those midterms in November.

687
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 2: I guess he got some sleep after that two hour speech.

688
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 14: Look, and David also really pressed him on whether he

689
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 14: would or would not seek to impeach the president if

690
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 14: the Democrats take back the House. And we're not going

691
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 14: to tell you what he.

692
00:34:56,760 --> 00:35:00,320
Speaker 2: Said, you're going to real you went with the And

693
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 2: you know a lot of Democrats are very worried about

694
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 2: that being the sort of knee jerk because that's the

695
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 2: muscle memory from the first Trump administration.

696
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:08,760
Speaker 14: Yeah, it was a debate. Did they overplay their hands,

697
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 14: you know in the Biden administration going after Trump which

698
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 14: Seed two embolden him and his base and swept him

699
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 14: back into office. Are they going to repeat those same mistakes?

700
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:18,359
Speaker 2: You know what dawns on me as well. You guys

701
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:22,479
Speaker 2: are launching at an incredible moment that we're talking about

702
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: a potential military action against Iran. You guys also have

703
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 2: Berkshire tomorrow, right, don't Yes, Berkshire. I was Blomberg ever

704
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 2: been live for Berkshire.

705
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 8: I was told in accepting this assignment there would be

706
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 8: no earnings, and lo and behold they are on Saturday

707
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 8: mornings for Berkshire. Hathway Warren Buffett was of the school

708
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 8: of thought that if they came out on a Saturday

709
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 8: when the markets were closed. You could go about your

710
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 8: day on Saturday and Sunday three hour.

711
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 2: Thing on TV with the coke cans anymore if that's

712
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:46,839
Speaker 2: not there.

713
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 8: So what we will find out tomorrow is, yes, the

714
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 8: quarterly report, the annual report, and then the first letter

715
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 8: from Greg Abel who was succeeding as CEO. And in

716
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 8: that letter, customarily Warren Buffett would would say when that

717
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 8: shareholder day is going to be an interest So we're

718
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 8: looking for news of that sometimes sometime in May.

719
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 2: Amazing. So you guys, I mean, it's an interesting job

720
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 2: doing this on a Saturday, on a Sunday when the

721
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 2: investment worlds, you know, nobody actually really ever sleeps, nobody

722
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 2: stops working, but you don't have live markets to deal with,

723
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 2: which gives you, I hope, just a great opportunity to

724
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 2: explore I think.

725
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 3: So.

726
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 2: I mean, look, we do have crypto, and we see

727
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 2: the very all crypto, and you to get all kinds

728
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 2: of emails about that.

729
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 14: Now, you know, if I have to go on one

730
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 14: more day where someone talks to me about crypto and

731
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 14: now we've got to talk about it on the weekend, I.

732
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:34,280
Speaker 2: Want to know what you're hearing cryptos trading.

733
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 14: That's a that's an off camera discussion, Joe, cryptos trading.

734
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,800
Speaker 14: We've got polymarkets which are increasingly taking up oxygen and

735
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 14: part of the discussion in the financial markets. And this

736
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 14: is the kind of world that needs some sort of

737
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 14: news on the weekend. And we know Bloomberg viewers are

738
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 14: not completely dialing out on the weekends, but we're hoping

739
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 14: we can do this in kind of a different way

740
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 14: and the longer form and give you what you need

741
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 14: to know before you start your week.

742
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 8: We're all though, part of this elite team, members of

743
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 8: which have gotten a all at an early hour in

744
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 8: the morning when big news is broken on the weekend.

745
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 8: So this an effect is kind of formalizing this is.

746
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 2: All good for me, lifestyle improvement, for letting.

747
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 8: You know my vacation days many months in advance show.

748
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,359
Speaker 8: But it formalizes that if news breaks on the weekend,

749
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 8: there is a place to go to for loved one

750
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 8: that it's not going to be at hok. And so

751
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 8: we have great plans for what we hope to cover

752
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 8: this week. At the next weekend. Of course, we're where

753
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,240
Speaker 8: the fact all of that could be scuttled, perhaps dramatically

754
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 8: but we're prepared and as you know, the newsroom is

755
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 8: so huge, and we willing to spring into action.

756
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 2: What's Colchi's saying about this launch, James, are they running

757
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 2: odds on this working.

758
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 8: Or America's checking that I would unfortunately.

759
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,760
Speaker 14: Look, I would unfortunately put my money on on something

760
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 14: happening this weekend.

761
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:43,399
Speaker 2: You just yeah, just came.

762
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 8: I would have said, yeah, I would have kept that.

763
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 2: I want to know why, though, I think.

764
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 14: I mean, I was asked yesterday, so I'm happy to

765
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 14: say it. And you never know what this administration and

766
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 14: there are so few people making these decisions. It's a

767
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 14: really close hold. And it's advantageous them because they can

768
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 14: pivot very quickly. And it's not like they have to

769
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 14: claw back a bunch of commands because they keep those

770
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 14: so close to the best. But I've been watching this

771
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 14: situation in the US Embassy in Israel, and I think

772
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:09,919
Speaker 14: the fact that they've gone on authorized departure tells you something.

773
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 9: How about that?

774
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 14: So we'll have to see, you know. The counterpoint to

775
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 14: that would be there are talks on the books for

776
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 14: next week, technical talks. I am happy to be proven

777
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 14: wrong and we will have you covered either way.

778
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,440
Speaker 2: Where are those odds, James twenty five percent chance of

779
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 2: strikes by March two fifty percent by March thirteen. That's polymarket.

780
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 14: Yeah, that would truck because if you're banking on those

781
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 14: those technical talks going ahead next week, that would be

782
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 14: where that. I think that's where that.

783
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 2: But if this bloody nose things happens, you know, that

784
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 2: could be at any time they say to strengthen the

785
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 2: hand at the table.

786
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,720
Speaker 8: And that aircraft carrier has arrived for sure close to arriving.

787
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 2: And no, absolutely, So you guys got a couch in there,

788
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 2: andever there's a couch nothing like, Yes, there's no in

789
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 2: our studio.

790
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 8: No, well, I mean you're standing, well, I mean viewers, no, listeners,

791
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:54,720
Speaker 8: don't you're standing?

792
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, well you've been in there. It's just just a

793
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:57,959
Speaker 2: big desk.

794
00:38:58,120 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 12: Yeah.

795
00:38:58,800 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 8: Well we'll look at you're going to be there to more.

796
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 2: I will. I want to see you have like a

797
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 2: breakfast nook. I understand they'll be anything else. Will be

798
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 2: warned to come hungry. Okay, great, beautiful content. What times

799
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 2: can people hear this interview with hockey Jeffreys.

800
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 8: At nine o'clock on Saturday? Nine o'clock is when that's

801
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 8: heir tomorrow in full and uh, we've got congressman from

802
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:23,839
Speaker 8: Tennessee coming in as well. Always did you say Tim Burchett, Yes,

803
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 8: I did. Oh see, I'm showing up that he's been

804
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 8: up in Chappaqua, I believe. So we'll get that's right

805
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 8: from him.

806
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:31,839
Speaker 2: Ask him about the UFOs, ask him about UFO files.

807
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 2: I'm not the second person.

808
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 14: I also want to ask him about these longboards that

809
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:37,879
Speaker 14: he hand carves members of So true and if.

810
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 2: You want to be a friend, bring some cheese wiz

811
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 2: just between us for Tim Burchett.

812
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 8: Long long blocks will bring the triskets as well.

813
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:45,280
Speaker 12: Perfect.

814
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,760
Speaker 2: See this is working out. I can't wait seven o'clock

815
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,839
Speaker 2: tomorrow morning. I'm getting up early and you should too. Well,

816
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 2: it's not really that early. Seven to ten both days

817
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 2: Saturday Sunday Bloomberg this weekend with two of my favorite people,

818
00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 2: Christina Ruffini and David Guru give him how guys, Thanks

819
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 2: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure

820
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or

821
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us

822
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 2: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at

823
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 2: bloomberg dot com,