Speaker 1: Let's get to our guest, Nancy Dowd private wealth advisor
Speaker 1: or Prise Financial. So we're getting a lot of cross
Speaker 1: currents here in the earnings picture. It doesn't seem to
Speaker 1: be clearing things up. The double digit forecast upgrade for
Speaker 1: Microsoft's earnings next year, it gives you kind of a
Speaker 1: warm and fuzzy feeling. But then when you look at
Speaker 1: what Walmart delivered yesterday, it's it's all pretty confusing. The
Speaker 1: bears would argue that, look, eventually everything's going to get hit.
Speaker 1: You have the Fed writing a trade for freight train,
Speaker 1: trying to get after inflation, and that's into a slowing economy.
Speaker 1: Sell now come back later your thoughts. Yes, but you
Speaker 1: know the we said that corporate earnings are strong, and
Speaker 1: everyone was very concerned about earning. So there's a bit
Speaker 1: of validation there. Uh. And yes, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: confusion and they're very The Walmart reports certainly indicates that.
Speaker 1: But the reality and everyone's talking about are we in
Speaker 1: a recession or are we going into recession? Well, the
Speaker 1: reality is that the market already pressed all that in.
Speaker 1: So now tomorrow the big Sad meeting will will they
Speaker 1: raise interest rates? Three quarters of a point, Will it
Speaker 1: be half a point, will it be one again? Lots
Speaker 1: of speculation, But the said has a very big job
Speaker 1: to do, and it's not just raising interest rates. There
Speaker 1: has to be a reorganization of the balance sheet, there
Speaker 1: has to be a spending curb, there has to be
Speaker 1: some tightening. There's there's a long checklist of things that
Speaker 1: have to be done besides just raising interest rates in
Speaker 1: order to overcome the inflation, and Nancy a lot of
Speaker 1: it as well about the forward guidance about what they're
Speaker 1: going to do after this meeting. How do you read
Speaker 1: the overall health of the consumer when we had such
Speaker 1: conflicting views from the likes of Walmart and then some
Speaker 1: you know, better earnings coming through from the likes of Google,
Speaker 1: Visa seeing spending jump to Yeah, I mean there's, like
Speaker 1: I said, I think that all along with all of
Speaker 1: the chaos and all of the bad news, corporate earnings
Speaker 1: are are very strong, and corporate balance sheets are very strong.
Speaker 1: And the reality is that these big tech companies they're
Speaker 1: going to figure out how to skin this cat. They're
Speaker 1: not just gonna play low and and take it. They're
Speaker 1: going to figure out how to get around it and
Speaker 1: and they're very resilient. And I always believed in corporate
Speaker 1: America because they know, you know, every one of these
Speaker 1: companies always figures out how to survive in times like these.
Speaker 1: Investors are always trying to figure out how to get
Speaker 1: an edge just buying. Let's say, all the cost averaging
Speaker 1: and buying, you know, is fine, but I mean, where's
Speaker 1: your edge here? For the listener? Now, what can he
Speaker 1: or she do to get ahead? We'll trying to time
Speaker 1: the market is a loosing battle, so it's really not
Speaker 1: a good idea to even think about that. And there's
Speaker 1: a lot of noise about oh, have we already hit
Speaker 1: the bottom? And should we be? Is this a good
Speaker 1: reentry point? Nancy down is Private Wealth Advisor and Amerprise
Speaker 1: Financial joining us on the line on Daybreak Asia. We're
Speaker 1: talking about opportunities you're seeing and you're not seeing any
Speaker 1: outside the US at the moment, mainly due to the
Speaker 1: strength of the currency. So the question is when do
Speaker 1: we reach peak dollar and when to other markets start
Speaker 1: to look attractive. Well, I think we still have a
Speaker 1: little bit of a bumpy ride ahead. Um, Western Europe
Speaker 1: has not recovered uh quite well yet. In fact, there's
Speaker 1: the the Ukrainian Russian war is really taking a toll
Speaker 1: on Western Europe and there's more problems there. But until
Speaker 1: the dollar really shows some uh weakness, lesson where where
Speaker 1: we are now. Uh, it's just too hard to overcome
Speaker 1: the currency exchange rate. Even if companies begin to recover,
Speaker 1: they would have to recover significantly before before we can
Speaker 1: think about profit. It's and and big opportunity. So we
Speaker 1: are in fact limiting our exposure outside the US at
Speaker 1: this time. I think most investors know now that it
Speaker 1: will be hard to get some commentary from the FED
Speaker 1: until the job is basically achieved or done. So if
Speaker 1: you're looking for early signs that inflation is topping and
Speaker 1: that the FED might be able to ease back, what
Speaker 1: are some of the early signs that you'd look to. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, supply and demand is really the basic. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, when when demand is higher than the supply,
Speaker 1: everything will will inflate. And that's just it's always been
Speaker 1: the way it is. So once you start seeing the
Speaker 1: supply become equal to or greater than the demand, that's
Speaker 1: when inflation will begin to Well. The reason I ask
Speaker 1: is like we've seen a pretty big move down in commodities. Now,
Speaker 1: some might think that, you know, that's a pretty good
Speaker 1: input into prices and that maybe that would be a key,
Speaker 1: but then we haven't seen that with some of the
Speaker 1: CPI data. Yes, commodities are going to start to taper off,
Speaker 1: but I still I think there's still some upside there.
Speaker 1: But really the big, big upside and commodities is behind
Speaker 1: us at this point. So um, if we're not already out,
Speaker 1: we should be getting out very shortly. But there's so
Speaker 1: much opportunity out there. With all of the bad news,
Speaker 1: there's also a lot of good things happening, so you
Speaker 1: should be thinking about that. We'll tell us about some
Speaker 1: of the good things in that you're looking at. In particularly,
Speaker 1: I wanted to see whether or not you see still
Speaker 1: value in sixty forty because the inflation is very much
Speaker 1: continuing to weigh on one retencent. Well, you know, sixty
Speaker 1: is really just a general cookie cutter kind of uh formula.
Speaker 1: It's really more important to be more personalized and when
Speaker 1: you're looking at investing, because even intent in bonds has
Speaker 1: been pretty scary. It's one thing to expect volatility and
Speaker 1: losses in stock, but it's really scary when your quote
Speaker 1: unquote safe investments are down ten um, but even bonds
Speaker 1: will be a great opportunity very shortly, within the next
Speaker 1: five or six months because interest rates. Once there's the
Speaker 1: long term rate reaches or or hits the three and
Speaker 1: a half to close to four percent mark, there will
Speaker 1: be a grand opportunity in long term bonds. Again, are
Speaker 1: you seeing good values in credit? Um? You know that's
Speaker 1: a little trickier. Uh, There's there's some avenue there, but
Speaker 1: we're still thinking short duration and very very high credit. Nancy,
Speaker 1: we talked about the FED, just I guess more broadly,
Speaker 1: what are you expecting that we'll hear from j Peal
Speaker 1: in terms of forward guidance. Wow, there's so much speculation
Speaker 1: on that. You know, many are speculating half a point,
Speaker 1: three quarters of point or even one percent. The reality
Speaker 1: is it really doesn't matter because the markets already priced
Speaker 1: it all in UM. And like I said earlier, it's
Speaker 1: not only the raising of rates that's going to count.
Speaker 1: There has to be some uh tightening of the money
Speaker 1: supply before we can see some real difference. All right, Nancy,
Speaker 1: thank you for your inside. Nancy Doubt is private wealth
Speaker 1: advisor at a Mary Price Financial joining us on daybreak.
Speaker 1: Asia