1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,080 Speaker 1: Let's get to our guest, Nancy Dowd private wealth advisor 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: or Prise Financial. So we're getting a lot of cross 3 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: currents here in the earnings picture. It doesn't seem to 4 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: be clearing things up. The double digit forecast upgrade for 5 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Microsoft's earnings next year, it gives you kind of a 6 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 1: warm and fuzzy feeling. But then when you look at 7 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: what Walmart delivered yesterday, it's it's all pretty confusing. The 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: bears would argue that, look, eventually everything's going to get hit. 9 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: You have the Fed writing a trade for freight train, 10 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: trying to get after inflation, and that's into a slowing economy. 11 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: Sell now come back later your thoughts. Yes, but you 12 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 1: know the we said that corporate earnings are strong, and 13 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 1: everyone was very concerned about earning. So there's a bit 14 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: of validation there. Uh. And yes, there's a lot of 15 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: confusion and they're very The Walmart reports certainly indicates that. 16 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: But the reality and everyone's talking about are we in 17 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 1: a recession or are we going into recession? Well, the 18 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: reality is that the market already pressed all that in. 19 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: So now tomorrow the big Sad meeting will will they 20 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 1: raise interest rates? Three quarters of a point, Will it 21 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: be half a point, will it be one again? Lots 22 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: of speculation, But the said has a very big job 23 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 1: to do, and it's not just raising interest rates. There 24 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 1: has to be a reorganization of the balance sheet, there 25 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: has to be a spending curb, there has to be 26 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 1: some tightening. There's there's a long checklist of things that 27 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: have to be done besides just raising interest rates in 28 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 1: order to overcome the inflation, and Nancy a lot of 29 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 1: it as well about the forward guidance about what they're 30 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 1: going to do after this meeting. How do you read 31 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: the overall health of the consumer when we had such 32 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: conflicting views from the likes of Walmart and then some 33 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: you know, better earnings coming through from the likes of Google, 34 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: Visa seeing spending jump to Yeah, I mean there's, like 35 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: I said, I think that all along with all of 36 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: the chaos and all of the bad news, corporate earnings 37 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,799 Speaker 1: are are very strong, and corporate balance sheets are very strong. 38 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: And the reality is that these big tech companies they're 39 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: going to figure out how to skin this cat. They're 40 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,239 Speaker 1: not just gonna play low and and take it. They're 41 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: going to figure out how to get around it and 42 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: and they're very resilient. And I always believed in corporate 43 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: America because they know, you know, every one of these 44 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: companies always figures out how to survive in times like these. 45 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 1: Investors are always trying to figure out how to get 46 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: an edge just buying. Let's say, all the cost averaging 47 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 1: and buying, you know, is fine, but I mean, where's 48 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: your edge here? For the listener? Now, what can he 49 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 1: or she do to get ahead? We'll trying to time 50 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: the market is a loosing battle, so it's really not 51 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: a good idea to even think about that. And there's 52 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: a lot of noise about oh, have we already hit 53 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: the bottom? And should we be? Is this a good 54 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: reentry point? Nancy down is Private Wealth Advisor and Amerprise 55 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 1: Financial joining us on the line on Daybreak Asia. We're 56 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 1: talking about opportunities you're seeing and you're not seeing any 57 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 1: outside the US at the moment, mainly due to the 58 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 1: strength of the currency. So the question is when do 59 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: we reach peak dollar and when to other markets start 60 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: to look attractive. Well, I think we still have a 61 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: little bit of a bumpy ride ahead. Um, Western Europe 62 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 1: has not recovered uh quite well yet. In fact, there's 63 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: the the Ukrainian Russian war is really taking a toll 64 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: on Western Europe and there's more problems there. But until 65 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: the dollar really shows some uh weakness, lesson where where 66 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: we are now. Uh, it's just too hard to overcome 67 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: the currency exchange rate. Even if companies begin to recover, 68 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: they would have to recover significantly before before we can 69 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: think about profit. It's and and big opportunity. So we 70 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: are in fact limiting our exposure outside the US at 71 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: this time. I think most investors know now that it 72 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 1: will be hard to get some commentary from the FED 73 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 1: until the job is basically achieved or done. So if 74 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: you're looking for early signs that inflation is topping and 75 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 1: that the FED might be able to ease back, what 76 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 1: are some of the early signs that you'd look to. Well, 77 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:32,239 Speaker 1: you know, supply and demand is really the basic. Uh. 78 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 1: You know, when when demand is higher than the supply, 79 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 1: everything will will inflate. And that's just it's always been 80 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 1: the way it is. So once you start seeing the 81 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 1: supply become equal to or greater than the demand, that's 82 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 1: when inflation will begin to Well. The reason I ask 83 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 1: is like we've seen a pretty big move down in commodities. Now, 84 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: some might think that, you know, that's a pretty good 85 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:02,479 Speaker 1: input into prices and that maybe that would be a key, 86 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: but then we haven't seen that with some of the 87 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 1: CPI data. Yes, commodities are going to start to taper off, 88 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 1: but I still I think there's still some upside there. 89 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 1: But really the big, big upside and commodities is behind 90 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: us at this point. So um, if we're not already out, 91 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: we should be getting out very shortly. But there's so 92 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,719 Speaker 1: much opportunity out there. With all of the bad news, 93 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: there's also a lot of good things happening, so you 94 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: should be thinking about that. We'll tell us about some 95 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 1: of the good things in that you're looking at. In particularly, 96 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: I wanted to see whether or not you see still 97 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: value in sixty forty because the inflation is very much 98 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 1: continuing to weigh on one retencent. Well, you know, sixty 99 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: is really just a general cookie cutter kind of uh formula. 100 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 1: It's really more important to be more personalized and when 101 00:05:54,920 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 1: you're looking at investing, because even intent in bonds has 102 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: been pretty scary. It's one thing to expect volatility and 103 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 1: losses in stock, but it's really scary when your quote 104 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: unquote safe investments are down ten um, but even bonds 105 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: will be a great opportunity very shortly, within the next 106 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 1: five or six months because interest rates. Once there's the 107 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 1: long term rate reaches or or hits the three and 108 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: a half to close to four percent mark, there will 109 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: be a grand opportunity in long term bonds. Again, are 110 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 1: you seeing good values in credit? Um? You know that's 111 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 1: a little trickier. Uh, There's there's some avenue there, but 112 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 1: we're still thinking short duration and very very high credit. Nancy, 113 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: we talked about the FED, just I guess more broadly, 114 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: what are you expecting that we'll hear from j Peal 115 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 1: in terms of forward guidance. Wow, there's so much speculation 116 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: on that. You know, many are speculating half a point, 117 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 1: three quarters of point or even one percent. The reality 118 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 1: is it really doesn't matter because the markets already priced 119 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: it all in UM. And like I said earlier, it's 120 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: not only the raising of rates that's going to count. 121 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: There has to be some uh tightening of the money 122 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: supply before we can see some real difference. All right, Nancy, 123 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: thank you for your inside. Nancy Doubt is private wealth 124 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 1: advisor at a Mary Price Financial joining us on daybreak. 125 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: Asia