1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business Apps. Let's go 11 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 2: over our new digital distribution. We do this for David Kirkpatrick, 12 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 2: who is so out front on the new digital and 13 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 2: the new digital for us as simple folks. YouTube. We're 14 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 2: committed to it. Bloomberg Podcasts, We're working on it. We 15 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: got radio tubes driving the bus here, but we got 16 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 2: like ten people working on it. You're going to see 17 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 2: all sorts of podcasts and this, that and the other 18 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 2: thing planned out. We're doing it in a slow method 19 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 2: agal with great support of Google. I should mentioned as 20 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 2: well Apple car Play and Android, but mostly Apple Bloomberg 21 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 2: Business app. It's free and downloaded, car plays booming, no 22 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:24,119 Speaker 2: other way to put it, and it's in twenty other 23 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 2: countries as well. Twelve years ago he changed journalism in 24 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 2: Silicon Valley. Most of it was oh breathless, Oh my god, 25 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 2: we had lattes and we did this. And he wrote 26 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 2: just a real climpic, simple clear book of how in 27 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 2: a ranch house on in Silicon Valley they invented Facebook. 28 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 2: And it was just amazing. The end of the book 29 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 2: to make you cry where Zuckerberg's looking out at the 30 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 2: whole new world after all from his driveway. David Kirkpatrick 31 00:01:56,840 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 2: here on the Nvidia Effect. I am so honored. 32 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 3: I remember the day I gotta be on your show 33 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 3: more time hearing there's a photo of you and me 34 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 3: and Paul Kodrowski where you absolutely nailed the future of Facebook. 35 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 2: I think it was the day they went public, really 36 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 2: really a great moment. We're here with the Nvidia Effect. 37 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 2: If you were to write the book what is your 38 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 2: Nvidia Effect. 39 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 4: That's a great way to ask the question. Tom. 40 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 5: I was thinking about how they're really you know Facebook. 41 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 5: Of course, Meta is my longtime expertise, and here we 42 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 5: have a company that's really taking a role in the 43 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 5: industry that is not dissimilar to the role that Facebook 44 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 5: had in those days of supercharged you know, domination and growth. 45 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 5: In fact, interestingly, I think you know, just two weeks 46 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 5: ago or so, Facebook gained more in one day than 47 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 5: any company ever had when they went up one hundred 48 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 5: and ninety seven billion, which is hard to say and 49 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 5: believe they did that. 50 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 4: I suspect today in video will go up more than that. 51 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 5: So we have these records being just shattered by these companies. 52 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 5: It isn't the same. It's a chip company, but it's interesting. 53 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 5: It's also still run by its founder. It's a company 54 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 5: that has its founder has had a long term view 55 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 5: the entire time, which he is in extraordinary fashion realizing 56 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 5: after thirty years of methodical development in a way that's 57 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 5: not dissimilar from how Facebook was at the center of 58 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 5: the change in global communications as the dominant company in 59 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 5: social media, and Nvidia is now increasingly at the center 60 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 5: of global not just communications but analysis and systems management 61 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 5: and computation generally as the central company in the AI 62 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 5: revolution in terms of at least dollars I mean open Aiyes, 63 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 5: out there doing this stuff, but these are the guys 64 00:03:59,440 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 5: making the money. 65 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 6: Yeah, hey, David, you know, first of all, thank you 66 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 6: for the notes you sent us this morning, and if 67 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 6: you have not yet published them, please publish them somewhere 68 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 6: on your social media. 69 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 4: I thought those were not as good as my usual no. 70 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 6: No, this, and I'll tell you what, just because for 71 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 6: the average investor who wants to get a little perspective, 72 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 6: your simple notes here today are very very helpful. You know, 73 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 6: there are some folks out there, David that are suggesting 74 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 6: that AI could be as big or bigger than the Internet. 75 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:30,719 Speaker 6: Can you help us put some perspective on that. 76 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 5: Well, it's not a crazy statement. I think we don't 77 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 5: really know how big or even. 78 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 4: What AI is. 79 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 5: It's still at such an early stage of gestation that 80 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 5: we are processing in real time. Even Jensen Wang, even 81 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 5: Sam Altman are processing in real time. 82 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 4: What this could be. 83 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 5: But there's no question that what we're seeing and I 84 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 5: was actually this is a point that I didn't put 85 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 5: in the notes. That is, you're keying up. You know 86 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,119 Speaker 5: what happened when the Internet came along was the entire 87 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 5: industry reconfigured around this new opportunity, and we are seeing 88 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 5: something exactly like that now for a much, much, much 89 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 5: bigger industry, which is that in that sense even more impressive. 90 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 5: You know, we have that the aggregate market cap of 91 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 5: this industry is somewhere getting up close probably to ten 92 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 5: trillion dollars. Maybe it's more than that. I haven't done 93 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 5: the math, but that's the range we're talking about. You know, 94 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 5: at the time the Internet came along, the tech industry 95 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 5: in the most broad definition, might have been worth two 96 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 5: hundred and fifty billion, three hundred billion. 97 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 4: I don't know. Maybe maybe I'm a little low. 98 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 5: There, but it was not a more a trillion, and 99 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 5: so in a sense it's more important now than the 100 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 5: Internet was. If it's true that we are entering a 101 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 5: new phase of computation and social change based on computation, 102 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 5: which is I essentially think the way you need to 103 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 5: think of it, and this is it's like the Internet, 104 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 5: a social change based on computation. 105 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 4: Right, that's what we're going through again. 106 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 2: Now, what's the free lunch on this, David Kirkpatrick, I've 107 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 2: been looking at the thermodynamics of this. Everybody knows my 108 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 2: view on bitdog. I'm not a fan. I think the 109 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:22,679 Speaker 2: thermodynamics of it is just bogus. But I don't believe 110 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 2: that you're AI. But I'm ignorant. I mean, we're talking 111 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,679 Speaker 2: here about a massive infrastructure build out, a massive drag 112 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 2: on electricity. It's just too much of a free lunch. 113 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:35,679 Speaker 2: David Kirkpatrick, what's the not the dark side, but what's 114 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 2: the cost of this AI boom? 115 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 4: There are so many costs. 116 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 5: But again it's something that nobody yet really fully understands. 117 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 5: I mean, it's interesting when you heard this crazy thing 118 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 5: of Altman going out supposedly trying to get seven trillion 119 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,840 Speaker 5: invested in this arena, you know, which is a ridiculous, 120 00:06:55,920 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 5: hyperbolic effort, but it suggests the scale of the resources 121 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 5: that are going to be employed here. And yes, from 122 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 5: an electricity point, you know, one of the reasons Sam 123 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 5: Altman is the biggest investor in one of the fusion 124 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 5: startups is because Altman believes that without fusion, without nuclear 125 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 5: fusion power, we won't be able to affordably get enough 126 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 5: power for AI. That's the kind of things that people 127 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 5: in the industry are saying. So I actually think, though 128 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 5: it's a two sided coin, happily as the Internet was 129 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 5: in some ways, that we will get tons of social 130 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 5: benefit and actually cost savings and efficiencies out of the 131 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 5: application of this technology which is so expensive to run. 132 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 2: David my CEO last year, had to be Mark Zuckerberg 133 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 2: the way he reversed around from that tobacco. Paul's covered 134 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 2: this better than me. What's the next step for mister 135 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 2: Zuckerberg and the conversation. 136 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 5: Well, obviously he's pivoted fully away from the metaverse in 137 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 5: the short term. I do think, you know, one thing 138 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 5: he's right about, and you know how critical I am 139 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 5: with him. I wrote a piece in Time magazine which 140 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 5: was unbelievably negative on their twentieth birthday two weeks ago. 141 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 2: Missus arbor. 142 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 4: I called it a tragedy. But but you know, they also. 143 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 5: Understand augmented reality in the same way that Apple does. 144 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 5: And even though they're not going to have devices as 145 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 5: good as Apple's. You know what's going to be interesting 146 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 5: in this AI era is what the plat, what the 147 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 5: interface is going to be. That's one of the key 148 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 5: questions that isn't resolved. I think Facebook Meta may actually 149 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 5: be positioning itself pretty well for the interface of the 150 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 5: AI revolution as they pivoted toward augmented reality through Oculus, 151 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 5: et cetera. So it's not about the metaverse. It's about 152 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 5: some kind of verse that is AI driven, and we're 153 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 5: going to have to learn how to interact with it, 154 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 5: all of us. 155 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 2: David, it's like Kirkpatrick. He's actually aged well. Read the 156 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 2: Facebook Effect, trust me, folks, it's aged well. It's out 157 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 2: in paperback now. The hardcover is a collector's item, like 158 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 2: David Kirkpatrick. But thank you so much. We look forward 159 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 2: to the Nvidia effect. John Levin joins us. He's a 160 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,440 Speaker 2: chartered financial analyst as well, and he writes for Bloomberg 161 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 2: Opinion and he's written for in Vidia, and he basically says, 162 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 2: America first, Thank you for joining us this morning on 163 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 2: this historic day. John, why is it American first with Nvidia? 164 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 4: Good morning Tom. Yeah. 165 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:36,959 Speaker 7: So my take this morning was, you know, I hear 166 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 7: a lot of people saying the US is getting too expensive. 167 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 7: Let me take another look at Europe, you know, let 168 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 7: me take a. 169 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 4: Look at Japan. 170 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 7: And the fact of the matter is, nowadays choices about 171 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:55,320 Speaker 7: geographic allocation are really kind of like choices about sector 172 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 7: in disguise, right, And what you're saying when you take 173 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 7: a look over at a lot of these markets is 174 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 7: I want to underweigh tech, right, you know, Europe you're 175 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:11,319 Speaker 7: like overweighting financials and discretionary, you're overweighting industrials in Japan. 176 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 7: If that's what you're really going for, you can achieve 177 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 7: that right here at home. Right, you can achieve it 178 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 7: by going equal weight SMP five hundred, or maybe you 179 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 7: take a flyer on some of these unloved sectors here 180 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:29,080 Speaker 7: here in the United States. But I don't get geographic 181 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 7: diversification for geographic diversification's sake. 182 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 6: You know, I'm just looking at your opinion piece here today, Jonathan, 183 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 6: and then just reaffirms something I learned from Tim Craighead, 184 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 6: who runs a strategy for Bloomberg Intelligence out of London. 185 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 8: I keep saying to Tim, how come the. 186 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 6: European markets, the UK markets, there's so much cheaper. 187 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 8: Than the US. 188 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 6: And he says, no, Nuts, it's because we don't really 189 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 6: have a tech sector over here. And you back out 190 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:53,559 Speaker 6: the tech sector and the market's not, you know, so 191 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:57,319 Speaker 6: cheap here. So for the US, I guess you get 192 00:10:57,320 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 6: what you pay for, right, Jonathan. 193 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly. I mean, you know, look, this isn't a 194 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 7: profound statement, but you know, the reason that the US 195 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 7: has outperformed the world for the past fifteen years is 196 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 7: because we have Silicon Valley, and because we have the 197 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 7: mag seven and so, you know, our fortunes are our 198 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,360 Speaker 7: wagon has hitched to these folks. 199 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 4: And uh, if you. 200 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 7: Know, the sector starts starts to tumble, Uh, you know, 201 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:30,199 Speaker 7: we can go down too. But in the meantime, we're enjoying, Uh, 202 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 7: we're enjoying all of the upside. 203 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 2: Right now, Paul up two hundred and fifty one down points. 204 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 2: We're quoting to Dell our surveillance. Dow Jones Industrial Average 205 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 2: correspondent Jonathan Farrell insists, but on a percentage basis, folks, 206 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 2: Dow up six tens a percent, SMB five hundred, up 207 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 2: one point two percent, with up two percent futures right 208 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 2: now the nastack here four minutes into trading up one 209 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 2: point nine percent. 210 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 6: So, Jonathan, you know, is there a concern here? I 211 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 6: mean that may mean there's too much tech in this marketplace. 212 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 6: I mean I kind of think tech has been, you know, 213 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 6: it has been, you know, the leader for these markets 214 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 6: for the last you know, fifteen twenty years, And I 215 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 6: don't necessarily think that's a bad thing. 216 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 8: Are you concerned about there's too much concentration in tech? 217 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,079 Speaker 7: Well, I mean, I mean, look, another obvious statement is that, 218 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 7: you know tech is is very cyclical. You know, we're 219 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 7: more susceptible to a downturn or something like this. And 220 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 7: you know, let's face it, like I get, I get 221 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 7: the handwringing. There is a lot tied to, for instance, 222 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 7: a single name. Right if you just if you just 223 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 7: look at the spread of cell side expectations around around 224 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 7: na video, right, Like the most bullish call on the 225 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 7: street versus the most bearish call on the street can 226 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 7: swing the entire outcome for the index over the next 227 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 7: twelve months by something like four percentage points. You know, 228 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 7: that's that's big for a single a single name. So 229 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 7: I get it. But you know, at the end of 230 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 7: the day, Uh, there are other ways to manage risk 231 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 7: than than going abroad. 232 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 2: So how do you do that? If skew is so low? 233 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 2: It's one of the Greek letters here, folks, I'm trying 234 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 2: to impress it in here with a little bit of 235 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 2: crossbow and analysis. John, It's simple. Does a derivative strategy 236 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 2: work as hedging work here? Or do your risk missing 237 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,320 Speaker 2: a boom. 238 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 7: Oh the old UH tailhage those out of the money 239 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 7: protective puts. I don't know, you know, that's that's uh. 240 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 7: I don't want to miss mischaracterize this, but. 241 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance we allow you to mischaracterize continue. 242 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 7: But you know, I mean it's sort of sort of 243 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 7: like the old uh Mark Spitznagel Universal Universe take, you know, 244 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 7: like why bother UH deworsifying into UH into the bond market. 245 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,679 Speaker 7: I guess this was his take back when bonds were 246 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 7: paying one percent and you could you could just keep 247 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 7: enjoying that upside and sell yourself some some protective puts. 248 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 7: It's a possible, it's a possibility. 249 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 2: Do you rebail? Do you believe in rebail? I mean, 250 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 2: I mean you're on the dark side with the Bloomberg opinion, 251 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 2: But I mean, what do you do your rebail in video? 252 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 4: Here? 253 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 2: Your rebail Microsoft? I don't think. So what do you 254 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 2: mean sell it out to bring the down in a portfolio? 255 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 4: Yeah? 256 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 7: I mean yeah, so, like I said, I think an 257 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 7: obvious and very simple strategy here is as you just 258 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 7: go equal way right? 259 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, all right, but I mean here, you know, it's 260 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 6: what's interesting in your opinion piece, Jonathan is that tech 261 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 6: stocks are expensive here in the US, but they're also 262 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 6: expensive in other parts of the world as well. It's 263 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 6: just that we have more of them. I guess there's 264 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 6: a way to think about it. 265 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 7: Yeah, one hundred percent. I mean, a very simple and 266 00:14:55,680 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 7: sort of illuminating exercise is, you know, just look at 267 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 7: is in US tech versus MSCI world x US. It's 268 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 7: the same, you know, Uh, it's the It's the same 269 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 7: exact thing. So if you think that there's a bubble 270 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 7: in US tech, you're going to find the same thing 271 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 7: everywhere else in the world. 272 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 2: Have you been to the fund and Blow Hotel? Recently 273 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 2: we're talking to Belchunis and Greidfeld. They spent like a 274 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 2: week at the Fontain Blow Hotel. That part of the. 275 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 5: John I was, I was not. 276 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 7: I'm not one of these fancy Bloomberg people that hang 277 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 7: out over in Miami Beach. I'm like a core Miami guy. 278 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 7: I'm on the mainland here, Tom, Jonathan. 279 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. In Miami, they're 280 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 2: writing for Bloomberg Opinion. I've got a really important conversation 281 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 2: coming up here in the Interactive Brokers Studios with Dana Telsey. 282 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:58,520 Speaker 2: This is going to be hugely, timely, really important conversation. 283 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 2: Yesterday I brought this up early, but I'll bringing up again. 284 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 2: Tony Capiano has this pulse on what we do with 285 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 2: their money. He runs a small hotel shop. It's not 286 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 2: Motel Cease, it's Marriott, but Marriott's way more than Marriott. 287 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 8: Yeah, lots of brands like. 288 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 2: You say, what do they what do they not own? 289 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:17,800 Speaker 2: Maybe you got a. 290 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 8: Clear and you were lobbying for a choice hotel suite in. 291 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 2: Paris for the Olympics and I got nowhere with them. 292 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 8: We'll see you're trying to bribe. 293 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 2: Them, but you know. Anyways, his insight, which goes to 294 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 2: Dana Telci's world at the Telsi Advisory Group, is they 295 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 2: misjudged luxury. And what he said is luxury is just 296 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 2: killing it. So let's take a given luxury stock. This 297 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 2: is Lewis viewton it's the r No family and there's 298 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 2: this gloom and Dana saying, stop it, don't give me 299 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 2: this china. We're all gonna die stuff. Since the middle 300 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 2: of January, Loose viewtont LVMH has a pop of twenty 301 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 2: eight percent Dana Telcea with their luxury the rest. 302 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 1: Of the year in retail, Hi, how are you thank 303 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:00,040 Speaker 1: you so much for how. 304 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:04,479 Speaker 2: Well give me? Give me LVMH and luxury and the 305 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 2: rest of it is that where you want to be 306 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 2: in retail. 307 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 1: I mean, I think the luxury, particularly LVMH is where 308 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 1: you want to be in retail. And the reason why 309 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 1: you want to be there in retail is because the 310 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:19,679 Speaker 1: brands that they own, the innovation and creativity that they have. 311 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,719 Speaker 1: Look at their distribution that they have, and they basically 312 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 1: when you think about Sephora, right all the way up 313 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: to whether it's wines and spirits or to whether it's jewelry, 314 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,560 Speaker 1: they have brands that people want to own and want 315 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: to buy. And let's not forget this is also the 316 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 1: year of the paras Olympics, and they're a sponsor of 317 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 1: those paras Olympics. 318 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 2: I mean, I look Dana, first of all, Dana on Sophora, 319 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 2: can you have Sephora pay cash to teenagers to throw 320 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 2: out one third of the bottles in their bathroom so 321 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 2: that they'll buy more Sophora? I think that would be. 322 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 1: Only yes, only if they'd buy more at higher prices, 323 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 1: and there you go. 324 00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:58,360 Speaker 2: They got to do that, and they will do that. 325 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 2: We know that, Dana. I'm luxury here and it's critical. 326 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 2: Can you make money and luxury gaming the fashion designers? 327 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 2: I say this with a beyond fabulous The new Look 328 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 2: with Coco Chanel and Christian d Or have you seen 329 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 2: it on ample TV data? Do you love it? 330 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: Yes? 331 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 2: I have? 332 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, it looks terrific. 333 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 4: Looks terrific. 334 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 2: Can you game? Can you make money and luxury based 335 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 2: on gaming this designer or that designer? 336 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:27,679 Speaker 1: It's a little harder to do, I think when you 337 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: have something like it, and the reason why take a 338 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 1: look at Gucci. You can't bet on the designers. Look 339 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,440 Speaker 1: what Caring basically doesn't have the same stable of designers 340 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 1: that LVMH has when you're operating seventy five brands. So 341 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think you bet on one designer or 342 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,919 Speaker 1: another designer. I think it's the health of the brand, 343 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 1: and some brands are even more illustrious than just the 344 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 1: designer themselves. Look at our Mez. You don't know who 345 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 1: the designer is, but doesn't everyone want anything or MEZ. 346 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 6: Makes Dana, you know, I want to ask you about 347 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 6: the Chinese consumer, where we talk about luxury, that just 348 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 6: seems to be one of the key key variables. And 349 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 6: I'll walk home here to the Penn station today and 350 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 6: I'll walk down Fifth Avenue. I'll walk down Madison Avenue 351 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 6: and I'll see a ton of European tourists. I'm not 352 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 6: seeing many Chinese tours here, and I know how critical 353 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 6: they are to some of those big shops there on 354 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 6: Madison and Fifth. Talk to us about the Chinese consumer. 355 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:22,479 Speaker 8: Where is he or she? 356 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 1: I think they're staying local. I think they're staying in China. 357 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 1: I don't think they're traveling as much as they had 358 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: in the past. You're absolutely right, you're not seeing them. 359 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 1: I am seeing a little bit more Europeans. I think 360 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 1: that they're spending also, whether it's on vacations or other 361 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 1: in going things and having experiences rather than just some 362 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 1: of the goods. So it's spending on local brands, it's 363 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: spending on experiences. And almost every single luxury house has 364 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: mentioned the impact of that Chinese consumer when they come 365 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 1: back is anyone's guests. But it is incumbent upon every 366 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 1: luxury brand to continue to drive the most innovation and 367 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 1: continue to update and enhance their stores in China in 368 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 1: order to remain relevant. 369 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:07,360 Speaker 8: Interesting. 370 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 6: All right, let's back away from luxury get to where 371 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 6: I tend to traffic here with the regular folk here. 372 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 6: Just talk to us about the US consumer here. What 373 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 6: are you seeing, you know, coming out of the holiday season, 374 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 6: kind of plowing into spring season. What what are you 375 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 6: seeing from the US consumer? 376 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 1: I think overall you can use the words discerning, cautious, choiceful. 377 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: They're definitely whatever you want to call it. They're definitely 378 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 1: more careful about their spending, whether it's discretionary or essentials. 379 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 1: We all saw Walmart's announcement the other day and their sales, 380 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: and they reported very strong holiday results with momentum exiting 381 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: the business with you look at their US trends with 382 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,880 Speaker 1: a comp of four percent, I think there's a trade 383 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: down that's happening, and you're seeing that trade down. Even 384 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 1: look at the off pricers, whether it's TJX, Burlington or 385 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: Ross stores. Anytime their same store sales are above three percent, 386 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,440 Speaker 1: I always think they get the benefit of the trade down. 387 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 1: They were that way in the third quarter. When they 388 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:06,880 Speaker 1: begin reporting next week, I think we're going to see 389 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 1: that again. 390 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 2: If you're with us on Bloomberg survants Dana Telsey, the 391 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 2: Telsey Advisory grew up here on YouTube Bloomberg podcasts, Thank You, 392 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 2: what Chat? They're having fun with that today HJJ, good morning, 393 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 2: and also on Apple car Play. We're out there with 394 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app. It's free, you sign up for 395 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,919 Speaker 2: Apple CarPlay. Dana, I don't want to catch on awares here, 396 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 2: but you're such a trooper, I'm going to go there. 397 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:32,679 Speaker 2: I drove by Nordstrom's the other day. This is a 398 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:37,160 Speaker 2: ten year track record of negative seven percent per year. 399 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 2: What in God's name did they do with that iconic 400 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 2: Western brand? What does Nordstrom do to salvage itself? 401 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: I think overall one of the things that they need 402 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 1: to do is if you think about what Nordstrom was, 403 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 1: it appealed to an upper middle income consumer with very 404 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 1: good brands, had inventory in stock, and what was the 405 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:05,239 Speaker 1: defining element of Nordstrom service that you can go in 406 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: there and establish relationships and that service element was there. 407 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: I think the full line stores are missing some of 408 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 1: that magic, and I think the focus has been on 409 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: the rack, and I think some of the brands that 410 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 1: they've put into their mix weren't the same as who 411 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,120 Speaker 1: that upper middle income consumer is. There's work to be done. 412 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 1: And look at what you've seen at Bloomingdale's. Bloomingdale's has 413 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,360 Speaker 1: had strength. You haven't seen the strength at Nordstrom full 414 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: line stores strength yet. 415 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo walks across the street, goes cross fifty ninth, 416 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,919 Speaker 2: turn right, and there's that alli at blooming Rail's, the 417 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 2: bag alley. Yes, you run a gauntlet there. It's a 418 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 2: Telsea gauntlet you run at Bloomingdale's. You never get to 419 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,959 Speaker 2: the other side without dropping two three grand data Telsey, 420 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 2: we're out of time. Don't be a stranger. Just love it, 421 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,919 Speaker 2: Dana Telsea. There just really with Joe Feldman, really just 422 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:12,119 Speaker 2: running terrific retail analysis. You didn't look at the front 423 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 2: pages around the world, Lisa start, what do we got? 424 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 2: I mean I thought there was a plethora of choices. 425 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,120 Speaker 9: Yeah, there's a lot going on. This one I thought 426 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 9: was interesting for a take on companies still doing business 427 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 9: in Russia was from the Financial Times. They had an 428 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 9: interview with the CEO of Mandalis and he said that 429 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,919 Speaker 9: the company's own shareholders they didn't pressure to leave Russia 430 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 9: after its invasion of Ukraine and its largest shareholders are 431 00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 9: people like Vanguard, black Rock Capital, Capital Group as well. 432 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 9: He said companies continue to do business in Russia, including Nestley, 433 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,400 Speaker 9: Unilever as well. So there's other companies doing it. Critics, 434 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,440 Speaker 9: you have them out there. They're saying that the invasion, 435 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 9: it's funding the invasion. He said that those who left 436 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 9: Russia left their assets to friends of Vladimir Putin, So 437 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:56,480 Speaker 9: you have both sides of it there. 438 00:23:56,800 --> 00:24:00,640 Speaker 2: And we're talking new sanctions off of this tragic death. Yeah, yeah, 439 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,760 Speaker 2: but I don't think they've announce. 440 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 6: The reporting I've seen. You know, it's just the sanctions 441 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 6: you've had an impactment really not so much. 442 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 2: We're going to do a disclaimer here. Of course, as 443 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 2: Lisa mentions, Mandalese International, they provide us with tang really 444 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 2: so you. 445 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 8: Know, thank you, you got it. 446 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:20,920 Speaker 9: I want to take you over to New York Times 447 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 9: Washington Post Big Space expedition case, Yes, Odysseus. It is 448 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,399 Speaker 9: expected to touch down on the Moon today five thirty 449 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 9: pm Eastern. The company behind it, Intuitive Machines. They are 450 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,919 Speaker 9: looking to land in a spots south of the Polar 451 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,479 Speaker 9: region and if all goes well, here's the thing. It's 452 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 9: going to be the first US moon landing in more 453 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 9: than fifty years. 454 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:42,959 Speaker 2: Thank you. 455 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 8: I mean, I don't know. 456 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 6: I love the space program. I love kind of what 457 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 6: we do. But haven't we been there, done that? You know, 458 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 6: have we already done that? It just seems odd here 459 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,919 Speaker 6: read you know, the Space Shuttle program. 460 00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,119 Speaker 8: I'm like, now, what do we do? 461 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,679 Speaker 2: I'm trying to go. Has a great essay out two 462 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 2: three days ago in Foreign Affairs about the state of India, 463 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,199 Speaker 2: Mody and all that. I really recommended, folks as a 464 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 2: very quick, brilliant primer on where mister Mody is and 465 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 2: he mentions in there India's participation in lunar flight, lunar 466 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 2: landing in that, and it's about you know, I remember 467 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,199 Speaker 2: as a kid that heated debates over why are we 468 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 2: doing this? Why it's never gone away? 469 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 9: Well, we were talking in the newsroom and they were saying, 470 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 9: gen Z doesn't believe that we landed. 471 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 6: On the Okay, that's a conversation you missed Tom in 472 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 6: the newsroom this morning. 473 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,880 Speaker 8: Samantha, who was the representative of gen. 474 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 6: Z, one of our intrepid producers here, says a lot 475 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,240 Speaker 6: of her cohorts and gen Z believed that the whole 476 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 6: Apollo thing scam. 477 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 2: I mean. 478 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:46,640 Speaker 8: They didn't get up at three in the morning. 479 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 2: To watch the silent You can you rich, can you 480 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,640 Speaker 2: see if we can get Tom Hanks on? He got 481 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 2: an effort, mister Hanks. Mister Hanks was the guy who 482 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,400 Speaker 2: wrote the intro to the Metropolitan Museum of Ours fiftieth 483 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,879 Speaker 2: anniversary of Landing on the Moon. If you're sitting in 484 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,119 Speaker 2: the basement and your father hands you a little plastic 485 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 2: thing and it's got moon rock and dust in it, 486 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 2: you sort of go, Okay, this is a fraud. No, 487 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 2: I don't think so, And I should point out a 488 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:19,120 Speaker 2: lot of people died trying to make that effort long ago. 489 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 2: For a we we spent way too much time in 490 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 2: that Quickly the. 491 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 9: Next newspaper exploration, this one is about working grads. They 492 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 9: are in jobs that don't use their degrees. A new 493 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,359 Speaker 9: study says about half of them, and it's a big 494 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 9: problem on their earnings, their career paths, and it's really 495 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 9: adding some more fuel to that debate whether the value 496 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 9: of a college education because the rising cost of an education. 497 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,600 Speaker 9: So here's what that study showed. It showed of the 498 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 9: graduates and non college level jobs a year after leaving, 499 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,360 Speaker 9: the vast majority remained underemployed a decade later. So those 500 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 9: who graduated, you know with with with a job in 501 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,959 Speaker 9: something that they didn't study, continue to stay in that 502 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:00,240 Speaker 9: area for another ten years. And it says is that 503 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,239 Speaker 9: usually college level jobs they earn ninety percent more than 504 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 9: people with just a high school diploma, but underemployed college graduates, 505 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 9: those who take the positions not in they earn twenty 506 00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 9: five percent more. So you see the difference there from 507 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 9: ninety to two. 508 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,639 Speaker 2: Ye. This is really good research. And I grew up 509 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 2: in a family where a lot of the jobs were 510 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,400 Speaker 2: not what they studied in school. My mother was very 511 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 2: big on was educated at you know wherever. And the 512 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,639 Speaker 2: answer is today you've got this disease of people going 513 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 2: into college degree programs where there's little opportunity for jobs 514 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,680 Speaker 2: out there. And that's how you get that ninety to twenty. 515 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,480 Speaker 8: Well, I think what I find odd having for look me. 516 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:45,199 Speaker 2: Wait, wait, wait, wait, folks, Paul Sweeney is god, his 517 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 2: children are employed and continue. 518 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 6: But I find out his kids come into college and 519 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,600 Speaker 6: the expectation is that they already have their major decided. 520 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 6: They don't know squad, I mean it's I didn't even 521 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 6: think about a major un till late in my sophomore year. 522 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 6: And that's when you pick your major because you don't 523 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 6: know any. 524 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 2: Joseph frescona great, great business slaw giant. We're a bow 525 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 2: tie small matter. I had a coarse three two beer 526 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 2: in my hand and he said to me, Tom, if 527 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 2: you don't change your major three times, you didn't go 528 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,119 Speaker 2: to college. Right. I changed my major three times. I 529 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 2: went from hockey shavy tennis back to hockey. It was great. 530 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:22,640 Speaker 2: What else? 531 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 8: This is my favorite story? 532 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,560 Speaker 9: Okay, the corporate jets. Yes, the I r S is 533 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 9: cracking down on the personal residents. 534 00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 6: Think about the surveillance Gulf stream, it is what are 535 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:35,119 Speaker 6: you going to do about it? 536 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 9: Look, so usually you can use it to get that deductible, right, 537 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 9: but they say they're abusing it for the tax breaks. 538 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 9: So they're gonna get dozens of audits in the spring. 539 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 9: A lot of across different industries are starting with corporations 540 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 9: and they could shift to individual audits. 541 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 1: Yes, could. 542 00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 2: You know? I mean Pharaoh, I mean he's hit every 543 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 2: day island off the coast of Italy, yep. With the 544 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 2: Gulf Stream. He goes into Naples, I think is where 545 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 2: he courts player take the boat around from. 546 00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:08,120 Speaker 8: There, but I'll drive. 547 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 2: I mean a lot of people, I mean these fancy people, seriously, 548 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 2: they live on these planes. 549 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I mean you couldn't leaving the super Bowl 550 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 6: in Vegas. A lot of people couldn't go to the 551 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 6: next day because they couldn't get a slot to leave 552 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 6: on Sunday. 553 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 2: But they liked Paul and May off the Mark. They 554 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 2: literally live Sean. 555 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,240 Speaker 6: And I know I know a couple of buddies of mine. 556 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,960 Speaker 6: They sold their company for a lot of money and 557 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 6: they put a big chunk of that aside to fund 558 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,240 Speaker 6: their private aircraft use for the rest of their life. 559 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,480 Speaker 8: They said, if we lost everything else, that'd be fine. 560 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 8: We cannot lose our corporate aircraft. 561 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 2: I moved somebody into film from Economy of the Business 562 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 2: Class today because it's a pretty good day and I 563 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,640 Speaker 2: didn't ask what it was going to cost. This is 564 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:53,720 Speaker 2: a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 565 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 566 00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 567 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,600 Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 568 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 569 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 570 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 571 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.