WEBVTT - A Netflix Price Makeover Is Coming

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>search Bloomberg Global News. Well, we just talked about Netflix

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<v Speaker 1>coming out with its tears in terms of its ad

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<v Speaker 1>supported streaming. Tis not tears like earlier this year for Netflix. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>like those tears, Yeah, I mean that was happening earlier

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<v Speaker 1>this year. I know people were like, what, yeah, what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on? Ats Netflix? Okay, So we mentioned that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to launch that at supported plan on November three. That

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<v Speaker 1>story was reported by Lucas shaw As is a most

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<v Speaker 1>read on the Bloomberg That is in the new issue

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<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Business Week, Maga Scene and that story that

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<v Speaker 1>Netflix is coming makeover in the face of some real

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<v Speaker 1>streaming competition. Yeah. The piece by Lucas Shaw, entertainment reporter

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<v Speaker 1>for Blueberg News. He joins us on the phone from

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<v Speaker 1>Los Angeles, give a follow on Twitter at Lucas Underscore Shaw,

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<v Speaker 1>and then sign up for screen time his fantastic newsletter. Lucas,

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<v Speaker 1>good to have you with us this afternoon. I want

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<v Speaker 1>to go back years ago to sort of the d

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<v Speaker 1>n a of Netflix, the way that it disrupted Blockbuster

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<v Speaker 1>but then kind of had to disrupt itself when it

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<v Speaker 1>really brought streaming to the masses, because I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>a big part of your piece, because Netflix, once again,

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<v Speaker 1>in order to succeed in this new ecosystem, has to

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<v Speaker 1>disrupt itself one more time. Where should we start. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you can start with with advertising, which is where we

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<v Speaker 1>started earlier, because it's something that Flix has always said

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<v Speaker 1>it would never do, uh, you know, never say Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>being an ad free streaming service was sort of the

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<v Speaker 1>core part of its proposition, something that made it better

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<v Speaker 1>than cable TV, where people were overwhelmed with ten fifteen

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<v Speaker 1>minutes of advertising per hour. And it's really a sign

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<v Speaker 1>of kind of the maybe not desperation, but the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the challenge they face here where they've just hit a

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<v Speaker 1>wall in terms of growth over the last eighteen months

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<v Speaker 1>and are now doing two things both advertising and charging

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<v Speaker 1>for passwords sharing that they've long set we're not an issue.

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<v Speaker 1>The one the one quible I take with the comparison

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<v Speaker 1>to starting streaming, which I think is totally valid, is

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<v Speaker 1>that if you asked the leadership of the company, they

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<v Speaker 1>would argue that this is more of a minor alteration

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<v Speaker 1>because they still believe in streaming. They're just making some

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<v Speaker 1>changes to it. But that is, of course a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of corporate spin. Jieber's here, the editor of Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>business Week magazine, and it's really timely story considering the

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<v Speaker 1>headlines we got earlier today about netflak Netflix launching that service,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've got some details on how much it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to cost you. Yeah, so the Lucas. The thing that

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<v Speaker 1>I just wanted to it's been a little bit of

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<v Speaker 1>time talking to you, was this the culture at Netflix,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, Surrender's obviously been there for a while,

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<v Speaker 1>has been the arc text of of sort of the

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<v Speaker 1>content strategy. Um. The the thing that you know, like

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<v Speaker 1>we said in the story, he never wanted to do,

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<v Speaker 1>was was ads right? And so internally, I'm really curious

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<v Speaker 1>to see how they tested this the price of this model,

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<v Speaker 1>Like what's your early sense of just like how did

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<v Speaker 1>they land on this particular price. Well, I think the

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<v Speaker 1>price comes from mimicking other services. They don't like to

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<v Speaker 1>say that out externally. You know, there was a call

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<v Speaker 1>earlier today where a reporter asked Regg Peters, the CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of the company, if they chose six nine a month

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<v Speaker 1>because it's a dollar less than Disney pluses at Sero,

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<v Speaker 1>which is seven ninths nine a month, And they said no.

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<v Speaker 1>But I've had conversations with people at the very top

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<v Speaker 1>of the company who said that they were modeling it

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit after Hulu, which was sort of the

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<v Speaker 1>first big streaming service to offer AD, one of Netflix's

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<v Speaker 1>earliest competitors, and it's priced in a way where they

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<v Speaker 1>believe the six nine a month, seven dollars a month

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<v Speaker 1>plus what they'll make from advertising means that they'll make

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<v Speaker 1>as much, if not more from an AD to your

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<v Speaker 1>customer as they will from the premium one. To your

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<v Speaker 1>question about culture, I just think this year, in general,

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<v Speaker 1>the past couple of years have been very destructive towards

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<v Speaker 1>the culture that was was pretty unique in business. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>stick with that because one of the things that you

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<v Speaker 1>talk about was the I will call it a debacle,

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<v Speaker 1>which was the Quister moment where they said, you know what,

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<v Speaker 1>we're we're gonna change the name and we're gonna turn

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<v Speaker 1>the streaming thing into Quister and uh, you know it's Boy,

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<v Speaker 1>did not go over well, but it speaks to this

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<v Speaker 1>company's ability to sort of try things. Maybe you soft

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<v Speaker 1>launched something, it doesn't go well and you pivot and boy,

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<v Speaker 1>that last decade since the Quister thing looked really good.

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<v Speaker 1>But one of the things you point out in the

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<v Speaker 1>story is that there's not that many people left at

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<v Speaker 1>the company from back then. Yeah, I mean you have

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<v Speaker 1>to give them credit to your point about Quickster with

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<v Speaker 1>the advertising and the passer charing. They're moving very quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, they went from at the end of last

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<v Speaker 1>year still not thinking they were doing advertising to standing

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<v Speaker 1>up an AD service less than a year. They're doing

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<v Speaker 1>it faster than Disney got there at supported tier out there.

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<v Speaker 1>And keep in mind, Disney already has an ad supported

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<v Speaker 1>service in Hulu, and Disney is a major player in

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<v Speaker 1>video advertising. So there is a degree to which the

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<v Speaker 1>company can still move incredibly quickly, and I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>the credit to be Page Things and and Ted serandos,

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<v Speaker 1>but a lot of the senior leadership around them has left.

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<v Speaker 1>There's just in general, a lot of restlessness among employees.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think there was a feeling for a long

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<v Speaker 1>time that, you know, Netflix was the place to work

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<v Speaker 1>if you wanted to be in in media and in

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<v Speaker 1>some cases in tech. I mean, it was at the

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<v Speaker 1>top of every list of most desirable company. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>not like it's completely fallen off, but for a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the folks who work there, it now feels like

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<v Speaker 1>another company because there there was forever this very unique

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<v Speaker 1>culture that Read Tastings had built and written a book about.

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<v Speaker 1>And while while it still there in pieces, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it has kind of fallen to pray to the same

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<v Speaker 1>thing that all companies do, is they is they get scale,

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<v Speaker 1>They just become a more corporate and traditional. So what

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<v Speaker 1>is stuck around from that that infamous culture deck that

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<v Speaker 1>kind of went viral years ago. The idea, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the company is is like a sports team, not a family, right,

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<v Speaker 1>They'll cut people who don't who aren't taught performers. But

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<v Speaker 1>at the same time they encourage you to go out

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<v Speaker 1>and see how much you're worth in the marketplace and

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<v Speaker 1>come back and you can can get a raise from

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<v Speaker 1>Netflix that way. I mean, what parts are sticking around

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<v Speaker 1>to you and what parts are kind of gone there?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it's I'd say it's it's a moderation of things, right.

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<v Speaker 1>So the company is infamous for having radical transparency. You know.

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<v Speaker 1>Redhastings modeled a lot of his leadership off of Ray

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<v Speaker 1>Dahlio the Bridgewater guy um. And that comes in a

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<v Speaker 1>couple forms. It's it's a lot of feedback, so people

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<v Speaker 1>being very direct and blunt with one another, and also

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<v Speaker 1>then sharing metrics and data. You know, Netflix makes pay

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<v Speaker 1>the pay available to or excuse me, employees can see

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<v Speaker 1>what one others making above a certain level. They share

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<v Speaker 1>their financial results weeks before they announced them publicly with

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<v Speaker 1>hundreds of employees, which is very rare. Um. Some of

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<v Speaker 1>that is still sticking around. They still share some of

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<v Speaker 1>those financial results ahead of time. They do still have

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<v Speaker 1>to pay available to some, but you talk to employees

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<v Speaker 1>and they say that a lot of the decision making

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<v Speaker 1>which used to be decentralized. It used to be you

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to empower people who are you know, VP level,

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<v Speaker 1>relatively mid level executives to be able to buy a

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<v Speaker 1>project or try something that just doesn't happen as much anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of the decisions seem to be made by

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<v Speaker 1>a few stakeholders, and people are just playing with fear

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<v Speaker 1>more because the company is under more pression. Hey just

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<v Speaker 1>got about thirty seconds left here. I love this line though,

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<v Speaker 1>in your story, with all this going on, you say,

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<v Speaker 1>it's important to note that in some ways Netflix, Netflix

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<v Speaker 1>has never been stronger twenty seconds. Why. Uh, it's profitable,

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't have to borrow money anymore, and it is

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<v Speaker 1>far and away the bigger than all these other companies

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<v Speaker 1>which are dealing with the decline of cable DV which

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<v Speaker 1>does not affect Netflix, which I mean, Lucas, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>for this story perfectly timed. I mean, you think about

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<v Speaker 1>all these other companies that are basically going through the

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<v Speaker 1>growing pains that Netflix has gone through. Netflix built its

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<v Speaker 1>dynasty on cheap debt and they're profitable, know how to

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<v Speaker 1>do this. It's like, you know, to some advantage that

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<v Speaker 1>there's a serious advantage there. Yeah, It's a great deep

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<v Speaker 1>dive into so much. When it comes to Netflix and

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<v Speaker 1>the changes that it's making. It's like you knew something

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<v Speaker 1>was going on it there'd be some headlines here, Doll.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, get to work with people like Lucas he

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<v Speaker 1>is amazing, Lucashaw's entertainment reporter at Bloomberg News from l

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<v Speaker 1>A and of course the editor of Bloomberg Business Week,

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<v Speaker 1>Deal Webber. Here in our studio. This is Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio this past Monday.

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<v Speaker 1>You all know this, uh And depending on where you

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<v Speaker 1>were around the country, Columbus Day and or Indigenous People's

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<v Speaker 1>Day and on the ladder. The World Health Organization has

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<v Speaker 1>noted that the health of Indigenous peoples is often marked

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<v Speaker 1>by higher rates of health risks, poor health outcomes, and

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<v Speaker 1>greater unmet needs in terms of health and social services.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got Dr Donald Warren with US, co director of

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<v Speaker 1>the Center for Indian Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>School of Public Health. Doctor Warren joining us on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from Baltimore this afternoon Dr Warren, how are you

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<v Speaker 1>doing very well? How are you doing? We're doing well. Thanks. Hey. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>give us an idea of the health challenges facing indigenous

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<v Speaker 1>people in this country. Um, what are what are you

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<v Speaker 1>focused on as at the Center for Indian Health at

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<v Speaker 1>the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, which I

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<v Speaker 1>should note is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, the founder

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<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Yeah. So we've had

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<v Speaker 1>the Center for American Indian Health over thirty years actually,

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<v Speaker 1>and the original work took place in Arizona and collaboration

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<v Speaker 1>with a couple of the tribes who are facing some

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<v Speaker 1>infectious disease issues. And at that time there were children,

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<v Speaker 1>very young children who are dying from dehydration. So the

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<v Speaker 1>original work was actually to develop oral rehydration therapy that

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<v Speaker 1>eventually be game pediolite. Actually, it's a little long fact

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<v Speaker 1>that could be like actually originated out of that work,

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<v Speaker 1>interesting to the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and

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<v Speaker 1>collaboration with tribes in Arizona. And since that time or

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<v Speaker 1>less thirty or so years, they've expanded the work to

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<v Speaker 1>well over two tribes across the US and expanded beyond

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<v Speaker 1>infectious disease to include things like maternal and child health

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<v Speaker 1>as well as addressing behavioral health considerations and chronic disease.

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<v Speaker 1>So we just recently, within the last less than one month,

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<v Speaker 1>changed the name from the Center for American Indian Health

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<v Speaker 1>to the Center for Indigenous Health, and we'll be having

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<v Speaker 1>more of an international focus moving forward. Talk to us

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<v Speaker 1>about indigenous communities in the US, in the United States

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<v Speaker 1>or or even globally. Um, what's why is it that

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<v Speaker 1>they're having such a tough time in terms of access

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<v Speaker 1>to good health care and having good health outcomes. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>each population is different, but there are some commonalities. And

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<v Speaker 1>when we look at the indigenous populations as are the

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<v Speaker 1>first inhabitants of various parts of the earth, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course of the United States, that would include both American

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<v Speaker 1>Indian and Alaska Native populations, as well as Native Hawaiian

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<v Speaker 1>and other indigenous peoples in the Pacific Islands that are

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<v Speaker 1>in U s territories. So we have a very diverse

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<v Speaker 1>group of indigenous peoples in the United States, but specifically

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<v Speaker 1>for American Indians and Alaskan Natives. What really makes us

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<v Speaker 1>unique is that we have sovereign nations within the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>there's actually five seventy four federally recognized sovereign tribes. So

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<v Speaker 1>we have our own elected officials, our own governments, in

0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:42.440
<v Speaker 1>many cases, our own health systems. But the big challenge

0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:46.439
<v Speaker 1>is that we face terrible rates of poverty and marginalization

0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:49.200
<v Speaker 1>in many of our tribes. So one of the things

0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:53.080
<v Speaker 1>that we see across population served by Indian Health Service

0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:58.080
<v Speaker 1>is a lot of poverty related illnesses and other socially

0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:02.160
<v Speaker 1>determined health to spared ease. And unfortunately, the Indian Health

0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:05.600
<v Speaker 1>Service is terribly underfunded. And if we look at just

0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:08.880
<v Speaker 1>the funding for i S compared to Medicare, for example,

0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:12.520
<v Speaker 1>is funded about free to four thousand dollars per patient

0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:15.760
<v Speaker 1>per year. Medicare has funded a twelve thousand dollars per

0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:18.600
<v Speaker 1>patient per year. So we just have a terribly underfunded

0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:23.839
<v Speaker 1>health system coupled with an impoverished population. Generally speaking, Dr

0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:26.720
<v Speaker 1>Warren Um, can you talk a little bit about your

0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:29.959
<v Speaker 1>bio and and you know from what I've I've read

0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:34.360
<v Speaker 1>um this you know medicine runs in your family. Can

0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:36.880
<v Speaker 1>you talk a little bit about your background and how

0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:41.520
<v Speaker 1>you bring a traditional approach to what you're doing today?

0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:46.440
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely so I'm Oglala Lakota reading from Kyle, South Dakota

0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.240
<v Speaker 1>on the Pine Bridge Indian Reservation, and I was very

0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.160
<v Speaker 1>fortunate to grow up in a family with a lot

0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:54.560
<v Speaker 1>of traditional healers and medicine men. So several uncles and

0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:57.840
<v Speaker 1>a head of grandfather who were all traditional healers, and

0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:02.679
<v Speaker 1>I've learned a lot about traditional Lakota approaches to health

0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:06.200
<v Speaker 1>and wellness just from my own family. And it's also

0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:09.600
<v Speaker 1>a ceremony family, so we have sacred ceremonies that we

0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:13.640
<v Speaker 1>participate in every year and really hanging onto the beauty

0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 1>and the benefits of connectedness to traditional culture. In addition

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:21.480
<v Speaker 1>to that, my mom is a nurse. Um she's eighty

0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 1>three and still working. I like to teach her that

0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:27.920
<v Speaker 1>she failed retirement. She tried to retire, still working as

0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:32.959
<v Speaker 1>an educator and really helping to educate the next generation

0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:36.400
<v Speaker 1>of American Indian nurses. So I've been exposed to the

0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:40.560
<v Speaker 1>whole field of health care from traditional cultural perspectives as

0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.959
<v Speaker 1>well as modern medical perspectives. And then I was very

0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:46.400
<v Speaker 1>fortunately did well in school and was able to go

0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:50.319
<v Speaker 1>to Stanford for medical school and Harvard for my master

0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.440
<v Speaker 1>public Health. I've got to ask you, we've only got

0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:55.559
<v Speaker 1>about a minute left. So this is not an easy thing,

0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:57.360
<v Speaker 1>I know to answer, but I mean it feels like

0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:02.599
<v Speaker 1>another population in the United States that gets an incredible

0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:05.800
<v Speaker 1>raw deal and Indigenous people over and over again. You know,

0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:09.240
<v Speaker 1>you can pick your point um is being left behind?

0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 1>What what big program or policy change could we do

0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:15.640
<v Speaker 1>that would make a difference on the population in the

0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 1>United States, specifically in asking we've got about a minute. Yeah,

0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:21.760
<v Speaker 1>And in the US, one of the unique considerations that

0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:24.480
<v Speaker 1>most of our tribes also have treaties with the federal government,

0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:27.360
<v Speaker 1>so there's a government to government relationship, and as part

0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.200
<v Speaker 1>of those treaties, it's well documented in case law and

0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:34.120
<v Speaker 1>then other examples that we have a legal treaty right

0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:37.160
<v Speaker 1>to health services in the United States. So the only

0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:38.960
<v Speaker 1>thing that we would ask is that the federal government

0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:41.800
<v Speaker 1>live up to its treaty obligations. Much in the same

0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:44.600
<v Speaker 1>way we would criticize other nations for not living up

0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:47.520
<v Speaker 1>to their treaty obligations, we should actually be looking at

0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:50.680
<v Speaker 1>our treaty obligations to our indigenous peoples in the US

0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:54.280
<v Speaker 1>and recognize that underfunding the Indian Health Service really is

0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:59.640
<v Speaker 1>a breach of those treaty obligations very interesting, um and informative.

0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:02.480
<v Speaker 1>Dr Donald Warren, thank you so much, really appreciate your

0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:05.400
<v Speaker 1>time today. Co director for the soon to be Center

0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:09.200
<v Speaker 1>for Indigenous People at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of

0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:12.520
<v Speaker 1>Public Health Center for Indigenous Help People's Health, I should

0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:15.600
<v Speaker 1>say uh. And of course Johns Hopkins is supported by

0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:18.720
<v Speaker 1>Michael or Bloomberg founder, Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr

0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:21.440
<v Speaker 1>Warren joining us on the phone from Baltimore, and we

0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:23.320
<v Speaker 1>just want to mention be sure to check out to

0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:26.920
<v Speaker 1>We've got a podcast here at Bloomberg. Rachel Adams heard.

0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.960
<v Speaker 1>It's called Interest and they've been investigating a transfer of

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:32.280
<v Speaker 1>Native American wealth and you can find that at Bloomberg

0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:35.800
<v Speaker 1>dot com or wherever you get your podcasts. This is

0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:39.800
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes

0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:44.560
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well today Bloomberg Live hosting

0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:47.200
<v Speaker 1>a second day of Bloomberg invest It's an annual gathering

0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:50.080
<v Speaker 1>of the leading names covering everything from cryptot to credit

0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:52.600
<v Speaker 1>markets and then everything in between. And it was in

0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:55.600
<v Speaker 1>person for the first time since the pandemic and comes amid,

0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:58.080
<v Speaker 1>as you know, an era of lots of market volatility

0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:00.280
<v Speaker 1>and uncertainty. I caught up with an exact it from

0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:04.000
<v Speaker 1>the largest owner of commercial real estate globally, Kathleen McCarthy.

0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.440
<v Speaker 1>She is the global co head of Blackstone real Estate,

0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:09.600
<v Speaker 1>which has a five hundred seventy seven billion dollar portfolio

0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:13.960
<v Speaker 1>and about three twenty twenty billion that is investor capital

0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:17.240
<v Speaker 1>under management. Lots of talk about we began, though when

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:19.840
<v Speaker 1>I asked her how against a tough market backdrop and

0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:24.600
<v Speaker 1>daily mixed signals, how things are going. It is an

0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:27.080
<v Speaker 1>exciting and interesting time because, as you can see, there's

0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:29.520
<v Speaker 1>different signals coming through, and I think we are better

0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.400
<v Speaker 1>positioned than anyone to know what's really happening. We have

0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:34.840
<v Speaker 1>six hundred billion dollars of real estate. We're in thirty

0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 1>seven different countries portfolio, though that's highly concentrated into four

0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:42.720
<v Speaker 1>key themes. Eight percent of our capital is in warehouses,

0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:47.520
<v Speaker 1>rental housing, lab office and hospitality investments, and what I'd

0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:52.040
<v Speaker 1>say we're seeing is actually very strong fundamentals in those sectors.

0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:55.400
<v Speaker 1>So when you talk about property performance, particularly for rental housing,

0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:58.600
<v Speaker 1>that continues to be strong, partly because of the pressures

0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:02.480
<v Speaker 1>on the for sale market with rise interest rates, logistics demands,

0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:06.040
<v Speaker 1>so warehouses in the US today we are at record

0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:09.720
<v Speaker 1>low vacancies, less than three percent vacancies and the markets

0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.479
<v Speaker 1>we operate in which are the densest, most urban kind

0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:16.000
<v Speaker 1>of areas, and we're also seeing very strong rent growth.

0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:20.119
<v Speaker 1>So in the US and last month rent growth in

0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:23.880
<v Speaker 1>our markets was thirty percent. In Canada it was even

0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:27.080
<v Speaker 1>stronger fifty percent. And so I think when we when

0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:29.119
<v Speaker 1>we're thinking about the real estate market, we continue to

0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:33.000
<v Speaker 1>see a lot of strength. Notwithstanding there are pressures around

0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.480
<v Speaker 1>us in terms of interest rates, an economy that the

0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:40.240
<v Speaker 1>central governments are of course trying to cool uh and

0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:43.240
<v Speaker 1>and persistent inflation. But we feel really well positioned for that.

0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 1>And i'd also highlight that I think this moment in

0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:49.040
<v Speaker 1>real estate, this cycle is quite different than others we've

0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:52.000
<v Speaker 1>been different. That's a good different, I mean good different.

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:54.359
<v Speaker 1>When you think about what kind of lad to real

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:57.720
<v Speaker 1>estate downturns in the past, there are really two primary factors.

0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.480
<v Speaker 1>It was too much capital, generally in the four of debt,

0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:04.919
<v Speaker 1>creating greater leverage fueling new speculative development. And it was

0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:08.000
<v Speaker 1>too many cranes, too much development and really when you

0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:10.360
<v Speaker 1>think about what happened in the years following the financial

0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:13.560
<v Speaker 1>crisis and leading up into COVID, we really never saw

0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:16.639
<v Speaker 1>those excesses come into our market. And so as we

0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:19.240
<v Speaker 1>head into um, you know, period where there may be

0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:21.959
<v Speaker 1>more economic headwinds, real estate actually is really well positioned

0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:25.600
<v Speaker 1>from a fundamental standpoint. Economic headwinds or recession, it's very

0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:28.120
<v Speaker 1>hard to call, and I'm not it's so hard. I think,

0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:29.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think part of it is what we're

0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:31.880
<v Speaker 1>seeing and and some of the things that I think

0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:35.399
<v Speaker 1>the central governments are trying to to combat, which is

0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.840
<v Speaker 1>just this continued strength that they see, low unemployment, strong

0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:41.560
<v Speaker 1>rend growth, and and that is part of what the

0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:44.600
<v Speaker 1>big challenges challenges ahead. So I I don't know if

0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:46.320
<v Speaker 1>we're going to have a recession. I'm not an economist,

0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:49.000
<v Speaker 1>but I would say there's definitely economic cooling. Are you

0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:51.800
<v Speaker 1>guys having conversations internally like thinking like, hey, guys, we

0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:54.439
<v Speaker 1>need to be thinking that maybe in this market, in

0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:57.159
<v Speaker 1>this market, Yeah, What I would say is we've been

0:18:57.520 --> 0:18:59.840
<v Speaker 1>we've been planning for a long time, and in this

0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:03.480
<v Speaker 1>comes through in the portfolio we've constructed for an environment

0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:05.679
<v Speaker 1>that might have been like this in terms of higher

0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:09.200
<v Speaker 1>interest rates, higher inflation, and so we really focused on

0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:11.480
<v Speaker 1>trying it to be in those high cash flow growth

0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:14.480
<v Speaker 1>and assets. And again i'd say today we're still seeing

0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:18.440
<v Speaker 1>those stronger than inflationary cash flows in our portfolio, but

0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:21.800
<v Speaker 1>certainly we are always trying to position for environments that change.

0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:23.879
<v Speaker 1>We've been doing this for thirty years. We've seen a

0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:27.000
<v Speaker 1>lot of different environments. We thought we had seen it

0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:31.160
<v Speaker 1>all and then COVID hit and hotel revenues went to zero.

0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:33.440
<v Speaker 1>I'm telling you no one underwrote that where we had

0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.760
<v Speaker 1>a pandemic um. But the great news is our portfolios

0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:39.280
<v Speaker 1>are built really to try to withstand any kind of environment,

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:43.600
<v Speaker 1>and the higher than anticipated rent growth we've experienced again

0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:47.040
<v Speaker 1>may kind of come down modestly, but we're we feel

0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:49.639
<v Speaker 1>really well positioned for that. Distressed for you guys can

0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:52.160
<v Speaker 1>be opportunity big time. We saw that after the financial

0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:55.880
<v Speaker 1>crisis in terms of housing. I would say, uh, environments

0:19:55.920 --> 0:20:00.440
<v Speaker 1>with distress, with volatility, with a pullback in capital markets activity.

0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:03.160
<v Speaker 1>And you know we're seeing in particular much more constrained

0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:06.639
<v Speaker 1>capital markets today. That tends to be a great environment

0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:08.920
<v Speaker 1>for us and really for any investor who is well

0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:12.600
<v Speaker 1>capitalized and who has real strength to lean on, So

0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:15.520
<v Speaker 1>we have a data advantage. Our portfolio gives us more

0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:18.800
<v Speaker 1>information on what's really happening that helps us build conviction

0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:21.359
<v Speaker 1>around what we want to do next. And then I'd

0:20:21.359 --> 0:20:24.600
<v Speaker 1>say the combination of deep experience from a large team

0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:28.640
<v Speaker 1>and capital makes us well positioned to really support situations

0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:31.320
<v Speaker 1>where others may be needing to sell assets, others might

0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:33.040
<v Speaker 1>need liquidity, and we were able to then get in

0:20:33.040 --> 0:20:37.119
<v Speaker 1>and buy high quality real estate. Alright, that was a

0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:42.680
<v Speaker 1>conversation earlier at Bloomberg Live there Bloomberg Invest event Kathleen McCarthy,

0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:45.439
<v Speaker 1>Global co head of Blackstone real Estate Massive Portfolio. As

0:20:45.440 --> 0:20:48.280
<v Speaker 1>I mentioned largestone of commercial real estate. We covered a

0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:50.639
<v Speaker 1>lot of ground. We could have stuck for another thirty

0:20:50.680 --> 0:20:54.320
<v Speaker 1>forty minutes easily. But there's a lot more to that conversation.

0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:56.840
<v Speaker 1>You can find it at Bloomberg Live dot com and

0:20:56.920 --> 0:20:59.520
<v Speaker 1>just search on Bloomberg invest. We're good, but well, I'm

0:20:59.520 --> 0:21:01.560
<v Speaker 1>eager to see what they do in this environment, like

0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:04.400
<v Speaker 1>when they start seriously deploying more capital when they see

0:21:04.480 --> 0:21:06.600
<v Speaker 1>valuations come down enough to do that. But they are

0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:08.840
<v Speaker 1>really good at picking up distressed ousets. They bought a

0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:12.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of residential housing after the financial crisis. Uh, casino

0:21:12.760 --> 0:21:16.800
<v Speaker 1>in Vegas, the Cosmopolitan picked up for a song it

0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:21.000
<v Speaker 1>was beaten up and then they sold it and made

0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:22.919
<v Speaker 1>a really strong profit on it. So what does this

0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:27.880
<v Speaker 1>cycle look like opportunity she sees globally around the market. Uh,

0:21:27.920 --> 0:21:30.800
<v Speaker 1>they really double down on warehousing and distributions. She thinks

0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:32.639
<v Speaker 1>there's going to be more of it. And that was

0:21:32.680 --> 0:21:34.800
<v Speaker 1>something that they that was a play pre pandemic and

0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:37.960
<v Speaker 1>played off and paid off really well for them. Think

0:21:38.000 --> 0:21:40.960
<v Speaker 1>about the consumer shift exactly. And then as we have

0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:43.520
<v Speaker 1>more companies coming back and they're gonna need, you know,

0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:46.479
<v Speaker 1>distribution facilities like we talked about near shoring. On shoring,

0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:54.280
<v Speaker 1>that all plays into road a journal. Yeah, but you

0:21:54.359 --> 0:21:59.560
<v Speaker 1>let me drive, no, no, no no, please, I'll do the

0:21:59.680 --> 0:22:05.680
<v Speaker 1>riding revals. I want to try. It's a good question.

0:22:09.359 --> 0:22:15.800
<v Speaker 1>This is the Drive to the Clothes on Bluebird Radio.

0:22:16.080 --> 0:22:18.640
<v Speaker 1>All right, speaking of going crazy, we're all a little

0:22:18.680 --> 0:22:21.359
<v Speaker 1>bit crazy about today's market, trying to understand it. We

0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:24.600
<v Speaker 1>keep getting lots of emails and thank you everybody, listeners

0:22:25.040 --> 0:22:27.280
<v Speaker 1>in the Wall Street community and others who are saying,

0:22:27.320 --> 0:22:29.800
<v Speaker 1>here's what we think is going on. Uh So we're

0:22:29.800 --> 0:22:31.679
<v Speaker 1>gonna continue to track and we've got another voice to

0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:34.679
<v Speaker 1>tell us what he thinks about the trade, because we

0:22:34.720 --> 0:22:37.560
<v Speaker 1>are definitely well offer those and big swings in the

0:22:37.560 --> 0:22:40.359
<v Speaker 1>equity averages today, Big swings today. Dave don Obedien is

0:22:40.440 --> 0:22:44.480
<v Speaker 1>Chief investment Officer at CIBC Private Wealth Management. Dave joins

0:22:44.520 --> 0:22:46.479
<v Speaker 1>us this afternoon on the phone from Baltimore. Dave, good

0:22:46.520 --> 0:22:49.080
<v Speaker 1>to have you back with us. How are you doing well?

0:22:49.119 --> 0:22:51.560
<v Speaker 1>Are you We're doing pretty well. We're trying to We're

0:22:51.640 --> 0:22:53.600
<v Speaker 1>kind of scratching our head heads here quite a bit

0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:56.440
<v Speaker 1>thinking about today's equity trade. We had some great comments

0:22:56.440 --> 0:22:58.720
<v Speaker 1>from Ira Jersey earlier giving us some insight into what's

0:22:58.720 --> 0:23:00.600
<v Speaker 1>going on in the bond market. How do you look

0:23:00.640 --> 0:23:05.560
<v Speaker 1>at things? Well, you'd love to think this sharp turnaround

0:23:05.600 --> 0:23:08.200
<v Speaker 1>was because everybody took a second look at the CPI

0:23:08.280 --> 0:23:10.320
<v Speaker 1>report and said, gee, not as bad as we thought.

0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:12.040
<v Speaker 1>But but we know that's not the case. It's sad

0:23:12.720 --> 0:23:15.359
<v Speaker 1>um and that you know that the timing of the

0:23:15.400 --> 0:23:18.040
<v Speaker 1>move late morning, that it was a rather sort of

0:23:18.119 --> 0:23:22.160
<v Speaker 1>violent turnaround to the upside, and usually that suggests some

0:23:22.240 --> 0:23:27.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of programmatic or algorithmic buying, So I think that's

0:23:27.160 --> 0:23:29.760
<v Speaker 1>part of the story. You know, we've down six days

0:23:29.760 --> 0:23:33.119
<v Speaker 1>in a row. Um. A lot of the sentiment indicators

0:23:33.119 --> 0:23:35.919
<v Speaker 1>show we were sort of extreme levels of bearishness. The

0:23:36.200 --> 0:23:39.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, the bullbear ratio coming into the last couple

0:23:39.040 --> 0:23:40.800
<v Speaker 1>of days is about as low as it ever gets.

0:23:40.840 --> 0:23:46.120
<v Speaker 1>So they have just been an oversold market. Um. Okay,

0:23:46.240 --> 0:23:48.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean I'll take that as a as good an

0:23:48.640 --> 0:23:51.080
<v Speaker 1>explanation as any. You don't sound like you got conviction

0:23:51.119 --> 0:23:55.200
<v Speaker 1>behind it the day. I mean, does it feel you know?

0:23:55.200 --> 0:23:56.720
<v Speaker 1>It's funny. I just put out a Twitter poll and

0:23:56.720 --> 0:24:01.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm asking everybody again stock market bottom tweeting during the show.

0:24:01.359 --> 0:24:06.560
<v Speaker 1>I am I'm a multitasker. Um. And the majority of

0:24:06.760 --> 0:24:12.080
<v Speaker 1>responses say no, it's not a bottom. Almost about say

0:24:12.160 --> 0:24:16.719
<v Speaker 1>yes and about say no. Idea and I had hashtag volatility.

0:24:16.800 --> 0:24:20.520
<v Speaker 1>So it's it is what does a market bottoming look like?

0:24:20.720 --> 0:24:23.359
<v Speaker 1>And can we say that the market bottoming that we

0:24:23.400 --> 0:24:25.280
<v Speaker 1>are likely to see this time around is going to

0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:27.320
<v Speaker 1>be the same as what we've seen in the past,

0:24:27.640 --> 0:24:30.359
<v Speaker 1>because I do wonder how the pandemic and all the

0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:32.880
<v Speaker 1>liquidity that was pumped into the market's kind of changes

0:24:33.359 --> 0:24:36.159
<v Speaker 1>what it looks like, right, Yeah, I don't think a

0:24:36.240 --> 0:24:39.600
<v Speaker 1>day like this signifies the market bottom. Obviously, we had

0:24:39.720 --> 0:24:42.639
<v Speaker 1>a really strong market from mid June to mid August

0:24:42.680 --> 0:24:45.440
<v Speaker 1>and it was just a bear market rally. But um, yeah,

0:24:45.440 --> 0:24:47.960
<v Speaker 1>I think we're certainly closer to the end than the

0:24:48.000 --> 0:24:51.560
<v Speaker 1>beginning of this bowl market. And we really identify three

0:24:51.600 --> 0:24:54.520
<v Speaker 1>things that need to fall into place, uh, to feel

0:24:54.520 --> 0:24:57.320
<v Speaker 1>confident that a new a new bowl market can can begin,

0:24:57.440 --> 0:25:00.159
<v Speaker 1>and we're just to sort of do a progress The

0:25:00.400 --> 0:25:02.800
<v Speaker 1>first one is we need to see clear evidence that

0:25:02.840 --> 0:25:05.840
<v Speaker 1>inflation is peaked as on and is on a downward trajectory.

0:25:06.080 --> 0:25:08.560
<v Speaker 1>It's safe to say we're not there yet. Um. The

0:25:08.880 --> 0:25:12.119
<v Speaker 1>second one is we need to see a downside surprise

0:25:12.280 --> 0:25:15.720
<v Speaker 1>on expectations for the Fed funds ring. Um. That's kind

0:25:15.720 --> 0:25:18.160
<v Speaker 1>of interesting after today because we're getting there. Our view

0:25:18.160 --> 0:25:20.359
<v Speaker 1>has been that the tread funds we need to go

0:25:20.400 --> 0:25:24.160
<v Speaker 1>to five next year, which was way, you know, high

0:25:24.240 --> 0:25:27.440
<v Speaker 1>on the consensus list. Um, but that's about where where

0:25:27.680 --> 0:25:29.760
<v Speaker 1>the market is now, so we're making some progress there.

0:25:29.920 --> 0:25:32.200
<v Speaker 1>The third one is I think there needs to be

0:25:32.280 --> 0:25:35.800
<v Speaker 1>a more realistic outlook for corporate profits. Right the current

0:25:36.280 --> 0:25:39.080
<v Speaker 1>estimate still called for an eight percent increase in corporate

0:25:39.080 --> 0:25:42.159
<v Speaker 1>profits next year. That's kind of magical thinking to me,

0:25:42.240 --> 0:25:45.399
<v Speaker 1>given the economic environment we're likely to see. So we

0:25:45.480 --> 0:25:47.880
<v Speaker 1>actually this sounds counterintuitive, but I think we actually need

0:25:47.920 --> 0:25:51.040
<v Speaker 1>to see earnings estimates come down for us to feel

0:25:51.080 --> 0:25:55.720
<v Speaker 1>that that they're appropriately uh value, before we can can

0:25:55.760 --> 0:25:58.160
<v Speaker 1>really begin a new pull market. So we're ways away

0:25:58.160 --> 0:25:59.879
<v Speaker 1>from it. I think, how much do learning these estimates

0:25:59.920 --> 0:26:03.680
<v Speaker 1>have to come down? In your opinion? Well, right, let's

0:26:03.960 --> 0:26:06.040
<v Speaker 1>right now they're they're expecting to be up about eight

0:26:06.080 --> 0:26:12.520
<v Speaker 1>percent versus this year numbers. UM I think will be

0:26:12.680 --> 0:26:19.560
<v Speaker 1>really lucky to be flat vero and more likely slightly negative.

0:26:19.640 --> 0:26:21.800
<v Speaker 1>So uh, you know, so they need to come down

0:26:21.800 --> 0:26:25.600
<v Speaker 1>another we'll call it to say, dude, this is this

0:26:25.680 --> 0:26:28.960
<v Speaker 1>is realistic. You know it's interesting too that you know,

0:26:29.000 --> 0:26:33.159
<v Speaker 1>you're talking about um downside expectation on the Fed funds, right,

0:26:33.160 --> 0:26:37.679
<v Speaker 1>and I'm looking at the warp function on interest rate

0:26:37.720 --> 0:26:41.000
<v Speaker 1>probability world interest rate probability for the United States, And

0:26:41.040 --> 0:26:43.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, we're just talking to Ira Jersey who thinks

0:26:43.040 --> 0:26:47.120
<v Speaker 1>that pricing cuts that are being priced in right now

0:26:47.119 --> 0:26:50.200
<v Speaker 1>by the markets, he thinks they're pricing it too early.

0:26:50.200 --> 0:26:54.800
<v Speaker 1>In other words, that the Fed stops raising rates. Um.

0:26:55.000 --> 0:26:57.000
<v Speaker 1>He thinks it's going to be later rather than earlier,

0:26:57.160 --> 0:26:59.040
<v Speaker 1>and he also says they're not pricing more cuts to

0:26:59.080 --> 0:27:01.640
<v Speaker 1>come later on that. I mean, do you trust kind

0:27:01.640 --> 0:27:04.119
<v Speaker 1>of market indicators right now at this point? Do you

0:27:04.200 --> 0:27:07.119
<v Speaker 1>feel I mean, here we have what a five percent

0:27:07.160 --> 0:27:10.760
<v Speaker 1>swing in the S and P and the nasdack today

0:27:10.800 --> 0:27:13.919
<v Speaker 1>and the Dow excuse me, and yet the VIX comes down.

0:27:14.520 --> 0:27:18.200
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how to explain that. I can't explain

0:27:18.240 --> 0:27:21.639
<v Speaker 1>it either. I think in terms of the path for

0:27:21.640 --> 0:27:24.880
<v Speaker 1>for you know, Fed funds, again, our view has been

0:27:25.440 --> 0:27:28.480
<v Speaker 1>they you know, funds peak at five percent um, you know,

0:27:28.520 --> 0:27:32.879
<v Speaker 1>probably in the second quarter next year. Um. That you know,

0:27:33.400 --> 0:27:35.640
<v Speaker 1>the work function, as you mentioned, that is saying that's

0:27:35.640 --> 0:27:39.040
<v Speaker 1>about what the market now thinks. Um. But but I

0:27:39.600 --> 0:27:42.679
<v Speaker 1>think that the missing piece maybe that we go for

0:27:42.720 --> 0:27:46.200
<v Speaker 1>a multi month period where whatever the peak is, let's

0:27:46.200 --> 0:27:49.320
<v Speaker 1>say it's five percent, it stays there and the Fed watches.

0:27:49.359 --> 0:27:51.679
<v Speaker 1>There's there's you talked to a lot of market participants

0:27:51.680 --> 0:27:53.840
<v Speaker 1>and there's an assumption that well, the Fed is gonna

0:27:53.920 --> 0:27:56.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, do their final rate hike at one meeting

0:27:56.119 --> 0:27:57.520
<v Speaker 1>and the next meeting that they're going to start to

0:27:57.560 --> 0:28:00.520
<v Speaker 1>lower rate. I don't think so. So I think we're

0:28:00.520 --> 0:28:02.359
<v Speaker 1>going to be stuck at that rate for for most

0:28:02.359 --> 0:28:05.199
<v Speaker 1>of the second halfe as well, what would you be

0:28:05.200 --> 0:28:10.800
<v Speaker 1>buying in this environment? Well, I think, um, you know,

0:28:10.920 --> 0:28:13.840
<v Speaker 1>the the equity market. Our our advice generally has been

0:28:13.880 --> 0:28:16.080
<v Speaker 1>to go slow in terms of putting money to work, because,

0:28:16.240 --> 0:28:18.280
<v Speaker 1>as I said, we don't quite think where we're at

0:28:18.280 --> 0:28:21.040
<v Speaker 1>the bottom of this this bare market. We are focused

0:28:21.119 --> 0:28:23.960
<v Speaker 1>mostly on on dividend payers and in those companies that

0:28:24.000 --> 0:28:27.080
<v Speaker 1>are still going to be able to grow their dividends. Um.

0:28:27.119 --> 0:28:31.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, through this difficult economic environment, defense contractors, infrastructure stocks,

0:28:31.960 --> 0:28:36.159
<v Speaker 1>healthcare or some of the areas you know, small caps

0:28:36.200 --> 0:28:41.000
<v Speaker 1>continue to be quite attractive on a valuation basis. Now

0:28:41.040 --> 0:28:42.760
<v Speaker 1>they're not going to be immune if we continue to

0:28:42.760 --> 0:28:44.600
<v Speaker 1>be in a bear market environment. That they may be

0:28:44.880 --> 0:28:48.440
<v Speaker 1>what leads us out when when the bull market begins,

0:28:49.800 --> 0:28:53.160
<v Speaker 1>go ahead, go ahead, please So So Dave Carol asked

0:28:53.200 --> 0:28:55.080
<v Speaker 1>what you'd be buying? I want to know. I mean,

0:28:55.160 --> 0:28:57.440
<v Speaker 1>I know you try to explain when you'd be buying here,

0:28:57.440 --> 0:28:59.680
<v Speaker 1>but in terms of time frame, how long are we

0:28:59.720 --> 0:29:02.120
<v Speaker 1>going to be sort of I don't know, searching for

0:29:02.160 --> 0:29:03.960
<v Speaker 1>a low here and kind of just treading water in

0:29:04.000 --> 0:29:08.080
<v Speaker 1>the SMP. I think, I think for a couple more months. Again,

0:29:08.480 --> 0:29:11.000
<v Speaker 1>impossible to know exactly right, but but I think we've

0:29:11.040 --> 0:29:14.160
<v Speaker 1>got a couple more months of this sort of slashing

0:29:14.200 --> 0:29:16.080
<v Speaker 1>back and forth, and probably with a little bit of

0:29:16.120 --> 0:29:20.360
<v Speaker 1>a of a downward bias. But UM, as negative as

0:29:20.360 --> 0:29:24.280
<v Speaker 1>we maybe on the economic forecast, we're actually pretty positive

0:29:24.280 --> 0:29:28.640
<v Speaker 1>about equity prospects for UM for three. You know, we're

0:29:28.680 --> 0:29:32.040
<v Speaker 1>likely to see a recession begin, you know, probably sometimes

0:29:32.040 --> 0:29:34.520
<v Speaker 1>in the first half of three, but we know from

0:29:34.880 --> 0:29:38.320
<v Speaker 1>long history that the stock market tends to bottom in

0:29:38.360 --> 0:29:40.480
<v Speaker 1>the middle of the recession, sometimes even in the early

0:29:40.520 --> 0:29:43.160
<v Speaker 1>stages of the recession. Not doesn't wait until the recession

0:29:43.240 --> 0:29:46.360
<v Speaker 1>is over. So UM, we do think things are falling

0:29:46.400 --> 0:29:50.720
<v Speaker 1>in place for a better market for equity investors, but

0:29:50.960 --> 0:29:52.520
<v Speaker 1>it may not be until next year. You have to

0:29:52.520 --> 0:29:55.000
<v Speaker 1>make a choice US versus non US. Where would you

0:29:55.040 --> 0:29:59.680
<v Speaker 1>go right now? Who? Short term US? If you if

0:29:59.720 --> 0:30:03.360
<v Speaker 1>you're a longer term investor, non US, You've got truly

0:30:04.200 --> 0:30:07.760
<v Speaker 1>um inexpensive valuations. And so I think with a again

0:30:07.800 --> 0:30:11.360
<v Speaker 1>a one to three year of view, non US all right, well,

0:30:11.400 --> 0:30:13.600
<v Speaker 1>good to know and and certainly something to think about

0:30:13.880 --> 0:30:16.360
<v Speaker 1>on a day where we're all trying to make sense

0:30:16.520 --> 0:30:19.160
<v Speaker 1>of another volatile day with lots of swings. Dave don

0:30:19.160 --> 0:30:21.640
<v Speaker 1>Obedie and thank you so much. He's Chief Investment Officer

0:30:21.680 --> 0:30:25.360
<v Speaker 1>at CIBC Private Wealth Management, joining us on the phone

0:30:25.480 --> 0:30:29.760
<v Speaker 1>from Baltimore. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download

0:30:29.800 --> 0:30:33.080
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0:30:33.120 --> 0:30:34.840
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0:30:34.840 --> 0:30:37.760
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0:30:37.880 --> 0:30:39.360
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