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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of the show.

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Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing

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Speaker 1: show for everbody today. What are we a pristal?

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Speaker 2: Indeed we do Trump with the ultimate Taco On Greenland,

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Speaker 2: we will break it down for you, but actually the

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Speaker 2: Danes are not super happy about what's going on there

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Speaker 2: as well, so we'll get into all of those details. Also,

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Speaker 2: the great John Meherscheimer is going to join us talk

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Speaker 2: about that and all of the things geopolitics. He is

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Speaker 2: also obviously continuing to focus on Iran and what may

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Speaker 2: or may not happen there. Got heard oral argument and

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Speaker 2: looks like they're going to rule against Trump in the

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Speaker 2: case of trying to fire the FED Board governor. So

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Speaker 2: we will dig into the arguments there and what that

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Speaker 2: one means. Kind of interesting, what Scotus is willing to

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Speaker 2: go along with, and what they are not. The Trump

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Speaker 2: administration also confirming that some of the DOGE people misused

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Speaker 2: Social Security data. This comes at a time when Trump

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Speaker 2: is talking more and more about the quote unquote rigged election.

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Speaker 2: We also have the author of a new book on

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Speaker 2: sports gambling. You guys definitely want to check out the segment.

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Speaker 2: I'm super excited to talk to him. I nosab are

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Speaker 2: super excited to talk to him. But a lot there

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Speaker 2: in terms of the way that those markets are completely rigged,

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Speaker 2: the way they're changing not just sports, but culture and

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Speaker 2: society as well. And finally, you guys probably saw this

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Speaker 2: story we covered on this show. Ice tear gassed a

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Speaker 2: six month old baby who was in the car with

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Speaker 2: their family and they're on their way home from basketball

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Speaker 2: pet practice. The parents of that baby are going to

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Speaker 2: join us live to talk about what happened to them,

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Speaker 2: how their family is doing, and how they are coping

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Speaker 2: with all of this, so I'm really looking forward to

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Speaker 2: that as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm excited to talk to him.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 1: Thank you to everybody who has been subscribing to the

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Speaker 1: show Breakingpoints dot com. He can become a premium member today.

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Speaker 1: For those of you who are watching this on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: Unfortunately many of you seem to watch but don't subscribe

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Speaker 1: to our channel, So hit the subscribe button if you will,

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Speaker 1: an episode to a friend Greatest five stars. It helps

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Speaker 1: other people find the show. So let's go ahead and

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Speaker 1: start with what many are calling the Taco of all tacos.

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Speaker 1: If you're not familiar with the term, taco was a

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Speaker 1: term coined by Wall Street Talk Trump always chickens out

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Speaker 1: for some reason. Schumer then adopted it as if we

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Speaker 1: don't want Trump to chicken out, which no, we do.

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Speaker 4: I'm always ran to use.

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Speaker 1: It, right, yeah, because we are.

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Speaker 4: Auditory, but we also support it.

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Speaker 1: It's all right, you know, they don't. The people in power, unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: don't seem to care that much about what we think. However,

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Speaker 1: this with the Greenland situation, seems to have now come

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Speaker 1: to a close after Trump has gone to Davos. He

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Speaker 1: was asked specifically an alleged new framework and or one

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Speaker 1: might call concept of a plan as been announced with Greenland.

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Speaker 1: No tariffs will be allowed. So did we get anything

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Speaker 1: out of this? Here's Kaitlyn Collins from Seeing and asking

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Speaker 1: Trump specifically, let's take a listen.

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Speaker 2: Does it still include the United States having ownership of

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Speaker 2: Greenland like you've said you wanted.

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Speaker 5: It's a long term deal.

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Speaker 6: It's the ultimate long term deal, and I think it

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Speaker 6: puts everybody in a really good position, especially as it

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Speaker 6: pertains to security and minerals.

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Speaker 5: And everything else.

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Speaker 4: How long would the deal be, mister President?

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Speaker 6: Infinite it?

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Speaker 4: And how would you ratify the deal?

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Speaker 1: What's in the deal? What's in the deal?

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Speaker 4: I don't think I've.

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Speaker 2: Ever seen him have to gather his thoughts as long

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Speaker 2: as he did.

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Speaker 4: On that question, humiliating a long term deal?

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Speaker 1: Put the net. Put this up here on the screen.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is These are the details, all right,

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Speaker 1: small pockets of land for the US. You want to

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Speaker 1: know what those small pockets? They're called bases. Now, this

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Speaker 1: is my favorite invented term I've seen so far. The

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Speaker 1: US will get sovereignty over its basis in Greenland as

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Speaker 1: if you don't have sovereignty over a military base that

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Speaker 1: you already have. Yes, the US will be involved in

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Speaker 1: Greenland's mineral rights. Duration of the deal is a definite

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Speaker 1: timeline designed to block Russian influence in Greenland. US Golden

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Speaker 1: Dome system will be involved, opens door to US backed

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Speaker 1: infrastructure investment, aka every single thing that the Danes were like,

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Speaker 1: you can have all of you already have. As long

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Speaker 1: as you don't then you can have this.

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Speaker 4: You literally already have it.

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Speaker 1: You have most of this. We can increase it a

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Speaker 1: little bit if you want to.

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Speaker 2: Like the like they were blocking us from doing mineral

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Speaker 2: deals in Greenland. I mean, we already had this agreement

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Speaker 2: in place where we could basically do whatever.

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Speaker 4: We wanted on Greenland.

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Speaker 2: And I mean, you have to laugh, but it's not like,

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Speaker 2: you know, in a sense, I'm sort of glad because

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Speaker 2: I think it was actually a wake up call for

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Speaker 2: the world, Like you know the speech that Mark Karney

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Speaker 2: gave the Canadian Prime Minister where he was like, listen,

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Speaker 2: this whole liberal international order thing, we've been going along

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Speaker 2: with it, even acknowledging that it's never really been real

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Speaker 2: and that there is a giant distance between the principles

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Speaker 2: and values of it and the reality of it. Like,

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Speaker 2: you can't take that speech back. So it's not like

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Speaker 2: we end here exactly where we started. No, we do

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Speaker 2: end up in a somewhat different place. And to be

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Speaker 2: honest with you, I think it's probably positive that the Europeans, Canada,

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Speaker 2: the rest of the world are looking at this guy,

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Speaker 2: maybe with clearer eyes, saying, Okay, this person is insane,

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Speaker 2: this country is insane. We can't deal with them. We

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Speaker 2: have to move on from relying on them for our defense,

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Speaker 2: from leaning on them for anything. We need to move

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Speaker 2: into a sorry for the turn phrase, but a new

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Speaker 2: world order. I mean that is what we are actually

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Speaker 2: living in now, and that speech from Prime Minister Mark

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Speaker 2: Carney I think was in Paly significant in shifting into

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Speaker 2: that mindset, no question.

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Speaker 1: I mean I would rank it among one of the

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Speaker 1: top moments of my life to see Western politicians say

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Speaker 1: international law is fake and that the Western liberal world

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Speaker 1: order itself is a fiction. And you know, you may say, oh,

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Speaker 1: why well, I mean, we have talked about the alleged

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Speaker 1: benefits of the international world order, which definitely was to

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Speaker 1: our benefit. I would say somewhere up until around the

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Speaker 1: nineteen seventies. I do think things explicitly switched after the

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Speaker 1: Cold War ended, and that's when the unipolar moment ultimately

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Speaker 1: became the detriment of the United States. While yes, we

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Speaker 1: allegedly became richer on paper, our trade deals bankrupted and

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Speaker 1: destroyed most of our manufacturing base, and we became basically

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Speaker 1: the world's policeman. This culminates in the invasion of Iraq

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Speaker 1: and the occupation of Afghanistan, which drained our resources, and

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Speaker 1: then eventually, you know, transforms into some you know, literal

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Speaker 1: liberal world policeman Libya style NATO intervention where everything is

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Speaker 1: about humanitarianism, a Canada and a Europe which it actually

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Speaker 1: is responsible for its own defense. Is a world where

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Speaker 1: the United States is no longer having to put hundreds

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Speaker 1: of billions of dollars into Ukraine. We're not, you know,

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Speaker 1: simultaneously having to constantly be you know, concerned with the

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Speaker 1: explicit security arrangements of the Dunboss region. So I think

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Speaker 1: these are all great. And in fact, there was a

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Speaker 1: Maloney video which we originally were going to play. Apparently

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Speaker 1: it was old, but it was about her saying something like, oh,

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Speaker 1: we're going to close your bases and boycott McDonald's. I'm like, oh,

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Speaker 1: so you're going to threaten me with a good time

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Speaker 1: that we no longer have to forward deployed presence eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bases all around the world, like we should have

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Speaker 1: bases only where they actually are strategically important. And we've

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Speaker 1: had tens of thousands of troops hundreds of thousands actually

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Speaker 1: deployed now around the world for some seventy odd years.

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Speaker 1: You know, President Eisenhower, who is like one of my

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Speaker 1: foreign policy load stars, actually wrote in the nineteen fifties,

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Speaker 1: we cannot be a Roman empire with legions deployed abroad

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Speaker 1: to police the world, and it's effectively what we turned into.

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Speaker 1: So to restore some sort of strategic balance, to actually

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Speaker 1: have i mean, to fulfill the Gaul's dream of like

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Speaker 1: an actually independent Europe, these are good things for Europe,

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Speaker 1: for us and for everybody. I mean, yes, that to

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Speaker 1: Trump to bring some of the business.

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Speaker 2: In side of that, though, is that you know the

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Speaker 2: tremendous So the deal was we provide all of this

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Speaker 2: world security in Europe basically doesn't have to invest that

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Speaker 2: much in their own defense, and the in exchange for

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Speaker 2: that the dollars the world's reserve currency, and that is

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Speaker 2: a massive, incalculable financial benefit to us. And so you know,

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Speaker 2: the like the debt and the deficits that we run consistently,

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Speaker 2: those are not possible all true if we are not

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Speaker 2: the world's reserve currency. And so if that contract is broken,

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Speaker 2: which is what this basically signifies. And not that this

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Speaker 2: all happens immediately, not that NATO is totally over and

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Speaker 2: all of that, but that is the world that we

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Speaker 2: everyone is acknowledging that we're moving towards now, then that

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Speaker 2: is going to that is going to have a massive

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Speaker 2: economic impact on the US. There always going to be

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Speaker 2: a reckoning. So you know, as as someone and I

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Speaker 2: said this to Jeffrey Saxon when we talked to him,

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Speaker 2: like I, even in spite of myself, I can't help

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Speaker 2: but have some American nationalistic feelings. I am concerned about

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Speaker 2: that in terms of the globe and the world moving

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Speaker 2: away from this. You know, what has certainly has always

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Speaker 2: in certain senses been a fiction and has been exposed

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Speaker 2: as a total fraud, a lie through our complicity with

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Speaker 2: the Gaza genocide and Europe's complicity in Canada's complicity, by

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Speaker 2: the way, but moving with away from that is not

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Speaker 2: going to be without pain for us.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: But I do think that that is you know, I'm

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Speaker 2: excited to talk to Meerschreimer about this and see if

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Speaker 2: he sees it the same way. But you know, that

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Speaker 2: is increasingly the world we're moving towards, not just the

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Speaker 2: speech from Mark Carney, the deal that he struck with

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Speaker 2: China incredibly significant. And you know, if you guys weren't

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Speaker 2: following this closely, like just a couple of years ago,

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Speaker 2: Canada was one of China's top sort of antagonists.

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Speaker 4: You know, there was an.

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Speaker 2: Very adversarial, very frosty relationship that is now over, and

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Speaker 2: they're like, we're going out in the world and we're

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Speaker 2: making deals and we're going to do what we need

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Speaker 2: to do.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, Matt Stoller has long set that being

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Speaker 1: the world's reserve currency is a bad deal for Americans

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Speaker 1: of long. I mean, look, it's of two things, because,

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Speaker 1: like you said, we can do infinite debt deficit finance,

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Speaker 1: but it also means that our federal reserve works on

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Speaker 1: behalf of the global banking system and not on behalf

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Speaker 1: of Americans. You could compare it, let's say to the

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Speaker 1: British Empire in nineteen forty or the famous you know,

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Speaker 1: nineteen forty five election. Immediately like while Potsdam is happening,

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Speaker 1: you have two different visions from the Churchillian vision of

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Speaker 1: like the empire will stand and attlee and others are like, no,

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Speaker 1: we just fought this horrific world war, Like we are

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Speaker 1: no longer going to be policing you know, India and whatever,

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Speaker 1: all of our different colonies, Like we want healthcare, like

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Speaker 1: we want a national health service. We all need to

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Speaker 1: decide like on our core strategic interest and like we

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Speaker 1: ourselves are going to be so you know you're talking

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Speaker 1: about the deal. The other side of that deal is

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Speaker 1: one reason that we don't we have an extremely weak

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Speaker 1: social welfare state is because we have eight nine hundred

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Speaker 1: bases across the world. The Europeans, the only reasons they

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Speaker 1: all get to get universal health care is because we

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Speaker 1: pay for all of their defense. Like it's a fraudulent

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Speaker 1: system in almost every single regard, there are pluses and minuses.

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Speaker 1: There will definitely be a period of transition like there

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Speaker 1: was for the UK as well, to continue down this road.

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Speaker 1: A three, shall we put that up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: NATO has quote no mandate whatsoever to negotiate on behalf

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Speaker 1: of Greenland. This is from the greenlandic MP who says

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Speaker 1: set on Facebook quote the idea that NATO should have

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Speaker 1: any say it all over our country and our mineral

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Speaker 1: resources is completely absurd. That is another element which I

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Speaker 1: just think you was driving me crazy about this whole thing. Denmark,

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Speaker 1: you know, negotiating with the United States over middle rights

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Speaker 1: in Greenland, which is allegedly a self governing territory but

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Speaker 1: gave up its own foreign affairs. It's like it is

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Speaker 1: genuinely ruled by the Kingdom of Denmark, and then NATO

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Speaker 1: itself coming and say, oh, well we'll negotiate with you

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Speaker 1: over the rights over this territory. It just gives it again.

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Speaker 1: I just I can never let it go that there

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Speaker 1: is a lot of fictions about rules and they're like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you're challenging our sovereignty. I'm like, well, you literally rule

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Speaker 1: over these people. They only got self determination like eight

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Speaker 1: years ago or something like that. In terms of their

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Speaker 1: own constitution. There's your subjects for hundreds of years. So

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Speaker 1: let's all not pretend as if your naked imperialism is

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Speaker 1: not like a footnote in this conversation.

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Speaker 2: Sure, but I mean and yes to have I mean,

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Speaker 2: imagine if NATO came in over our heads and was like, yes,

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Speaker 2: here's the deal we did on your behalf.

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Speaker 4: That's right, who are you mark up? Like what are

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Speaker 4: you talking about?

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Speaker 2: So that is the reaction that that was from one

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Speaker 2: member of Parliament. The Prime Minister has now come out

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Speaker 2: and said similar things. I mean again, I don't even

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Speaker 2: know what this deal really is because it appears to

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Speaker 2: me to be things that already existed. So maybe they won't,

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Speaker 2: you know, object to you strenual seas it's basically some

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Speaker 2: like face saving deal for Trump so that all of

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Speaker 2: his sick of fans can go out and be like,

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Speaker 2: oh look, our of the deal is any brilliant blah

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Speaker 2: blah blah. So anyway, I mean, with regard to what

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Speaker 2: the people of Greenland actually want, judging by the polling

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Speaker 2: and what I've seen there, there was definitely a movement

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Speaker 2: within the country.

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Speaker 4: And this is very I mean.

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Speaker 2: We're talking about fifty six thousand people and this is

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Speaker 2: a very small population. But in any case, there was

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Speaker 2: a movement of interest in in true independence from Denmark. However,

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Speaker 2: with this threat from the US, that seems like it's

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Speaker 2: really been put on hold, and it's like, listen, we

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Speaker 2: would much rather stay with Denmark than.

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Speaker 4: Go with the US.

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Speaker 2: And there was a clip that went viral where one

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Speaker 2: of their politicians was saying, look, we don't aspire to

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Speaker 2: American culture. There's all kinds of tiktoks of them making

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Speaker 2: fun of like, you know, doing the defentanyl lean.

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Speaker 1: They're like, we don't want bums addicted to fentan all

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Speaker 1: on our streets. Well, I never felt more, never felt

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Speaker 1: more affinity for the I'm like, I'm with you.

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Speaker 4: Agree, yeah, free, but stay away from us.

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Speaker 2: But in addition, she was like, look, we get free

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Speaker 2: health care. We get free not just like you know

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Speaker 2: through high school public education.

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Speaker 4: We get free college.

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Speaker 2: In fact, if we want to go and study in college,

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Speaker 2: we get a stipend to support like our living needs.

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Speaker 2: So they're like, we've got a pretty good deal here,

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Speaker 2: definitely better than what's on offer from the United States.

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Speaker 2: And culturally they were not really feeling it either. So

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Speaker 2: in any case, you know, to the extent that the

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Speaker 2: wants and concerns of Greenlanders is that what they're called Greenlanders.

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Speaker 2: I don't know the people of Greenland to the extent

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Speaker 2: that that matters at all.

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Speaker 1: That seems to be where I don't want to go visit.

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Speaker 1: So United now has a direct flight from from from

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Speaker 1: I think it's from JFK to NUKE. And I think,

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Speaker 1: after all of this talk, I gotta go. I gotta

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Speaker 1: go and see it all in the summer. You got

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Speaker 1: to get the full experience. I want to go see

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Speaker 1: some of the Greeley Expedition ruins. I think that they're

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Speaker 1: still there, actually, some of the huts. This was an

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Speaker 1: American expedition to Greenland back during the eighteen hundreds. Great

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Speaker 1: book about it I read called a Kingdom of Ice.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's continue here with Donald Trump. Kingdom's of ice,

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Speaker 1: Kingdom's of ice of ice, Trump having a Biden confusing

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Speaker 1: Greenland with Iceland a couple of times.

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Speaker 6: Here.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 7: I know that they'd be there for us. They're not

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Speaker 7: there for us on Iceland, that I can tell you.

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Speaker 7: I mean, our stock market took the first dip yesterday

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Speaker 7: because of Iceland. So Iceland's already cost us a lot

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Speaker 7: of money. But that dip is peanuts compared to what

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Speaker 7: it's gone.

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Speaker 1: Up a stock market? Is it two thousand and nine? Again,

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Speaker 1: remember when Iceland went broke back during the Great Recession

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Speaker 1: that was immediately Maybe I'm thinking deeply about it, but

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Speaker 1: let's put this up. The press secretary's defense of this

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Speaker 1: is his written remarks referred to Greenland as a piece

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Speaker 1: of ice because that's what it is. You are the

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Speaker 1: only one mixing up anything here, so saying that a.

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Speaker 4: New playing the role of Karine Jean Pierre.

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Speaker 1: The News Nation reporter, was like, I think Trump is

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Speaker 1: Greenland with Iceland, and she was like, no, Greenland is

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Speaker 1: a piece of ice, because that's what it is. You're

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Speaker 1: the only one it's making it.

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Speaker 2: Ice space land is what she's trying to say here.

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Speaker 2: He didn't say Iceland, he said ice space land.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's a piece of so Alaska is ice? Okay?

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Speaker 8: All right?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty good?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, full brand, that's.

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Speaker 1: What we're dealing with. Let's put a six here up

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Speaker 1: on the screen. There are still some obviously some fallouts

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Speaker 1: that's happening as a result of all this. This was

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Speaker 1: to the point of our discussion. A little bit earlier.

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Speaker 1: European officials suspend the US trade agreement amid the tariff

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Speaker 1: dispute on Greenland, the twenty seven nation blocks struck a

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Speaker 1: trade deal with Trump. Sometime back in July. They suspended

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Speaker 1: the trade agreement over the tariff threat. It is unclear

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Speaker 1: as of right now what is exactly going to happen

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Speaker 1: because the suspended it, but then Trump called off the tariff,

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Speaker 1: so it may go back into effect. There was a

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Speaker 1: modest stock market reaction, like a one point two percent

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Speaker 1: bump in the S and P five hundred as a

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Speaker 1: result of Donald Trump's back and off of the threat

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Speaker 1: on Greenland, and in generally like stability within the market

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Speaker 1: seems to be something that's going to go forward. However,

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Speaker 1: you know, we shouldn't forget that a lot of these deals.

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Speaker 1: Fact that it could immediately get called into question may

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Speaker 1: also give the EURO, the European Union it's negotiators a

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Speaker 1: little bit. I just I don't know what their general

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Speaker 1: position after all of this is going to be. You

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Speaker 1: have the Macrone situation, the EU suspending the tariff deal,

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Speaker 1: Trump saying he won't he won't attend that. You know,

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Speaker 1: that accelerated G seven meeting which Macron was trying to

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Speaker 1: create in Paris, and then at the same time, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's not like while yes, he backed off entirely of Greenland,

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Speaker 1: it's like you were saying with Canada, not just Canada,

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Speaker 1: but basically all of the great leaders of the EU,

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Speaker 1: like Macron. When I say great, I mean the great powers.

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Speaker 1: So Macron, you had, you know, the Chancellor of Germany

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Speaker 1: and the Danish Prime Minister, like so many of these

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Speaker 1: other different officials. The tension still remains high there. And

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Speaker 1: don't forget like they have their own domestic populations who

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Speaker 1: are now very upset with the United States. The largest

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Speaker 1: Danish left wing party, which looked to be losing the

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Speaker 1: upcoming election, have now had a massive bump due to

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Speaker 1: Trump's Greenland posturing. Then he says he had the same

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Speaker 1: effect on the Canadian election and the election in Australia.

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Speaker 1: Quite possibly, there is no person who has had more

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Speaker 1: of a detrial mental effect on right wing political success

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Speaker 1: across Trump as the West. These are important times, the

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Speaker 1: specter of immigration. Quote, it's not time to fuck around

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Speaker 1: them this way. This is somebody obviously who has a

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Speaker 1: sympathy with the right right, I mean think it's right.

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Speaker 1: And you could see this by down in South America too,

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Speaker 1: Trump going after Petro has made Petro enormously popular. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you have seen the same thing with Lula. Saved his

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Speaker 1: political fortunes. You can definitely point to some limited success

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Speaker 1: he had in the in the Argentina, but Hunduras election, right,

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Speaker 1: so we had two different Chile as well. So he's

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Speaker 1: had a couple where it seemed to have worked out

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Speaker 1: on his behalf. But it's relatively mixed to track record.

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Speaker 1: If you look across the spectrum and like, really, what

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Speaker 1: it shows you is that other countries have I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is part of what happened with Liberation Day and

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Speaker 1: with the reason why we ultimately folded with a lot

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Speaker 1: of our threash towards Canada is because the Canadian people

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Speaker 1: were like, look suffer, we will, right, if somebody's coming

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Speaker 1: after as an external threat actor, if we all have

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Speaker 1: to get you know, a little bit poorer over you know,

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Speaker 1: a couple of year time period, we'll deal with it

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Speaker 1: if we want to. You've seen the same situation across Europe.

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Speaker 1: Japan had a very similar thing. They were not happy

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Speaker 1: about that trade deal at all, and there's all kinds

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Speaker 1: of stuff. If you watch Japanese politics and you can

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Speaker 1: hit the translate button. There were all kinds of discussions

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Speaker 1: that were happening there. They're like, oh, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: bases here in Japan, maybe those got to go, just

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Speaker 1: like what Maloney was talking about. They're still not happy

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Speaker 1: with the way that that entire thing went out. South

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Speaker 1: Korea similar problems. So you know, you can see this

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Speaker 1: all across the world.

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Speaker 2: It's very clear with Trump what pulls them back from

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Speaker 2: the brink. It's the market, yeah, I mean, and the

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Speaker 2: market at this point sort of prices in a taco,

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Speaker 2: you know, they assume a lot of taco, So it

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Speaker 2: takes a lot before the market's actually are like, oh,

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Speaker 2: maybe he's serious. This might be a real problem. And

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Speaker 2: once that happens, then he walks it back. But so

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Speaker 2: we've sort of have like i don't know, like increasing

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Speaker 2: resistance to the Trump insanity with the markets, where it's

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Speaker 2: like he has to do crazier and crazier things before

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Speaker 2: it gets so far that there's a reaction. And so

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Speaker 2: you know, you finally had that where you know, he's

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Speaker 2: threatening a new trade war and there's leaving on the

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Speaker 2: table potential military invasion. You've got put a nine up

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Speaker 2: on the screen, freaking Canada is doing war games for

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Speaker 2: how they're going to want like wage gorilla warfare against US.

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Speaker 4: If we try to invade them. I mean this just

436
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 4: did you read?

437
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,679
Speaker 2: Yes, it says military chiefs have modeled the response to

438
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,359
Speaker 2: an attack and the MoU Ja Henzeene style insurgency tactics

439
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,160
Speaker 2: they would need to use against American invaders. I mean

440
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,640
Speaker 2: intelligent because they know they don't actually have the military

441
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 2: might to defeat us.

442
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 1: But like we get.

443
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:55,679
Speaker 2: Messed up by the tile Band, we got messed up

444
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,120
Speaker 2: by the hu Thies, you know, go back to Vietnam.

445
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:02,679
Speaker 2: Like the grilla warfare tactics very effective against a you know,

446
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 2: a big conventional military power such as US. So in

447
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 2: any case, like that's we got to that point where

448
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,400
Speaker 2: Canada is like, I guess we better do some war

449
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 2: games here with our neighbors, the United States of America,

450
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 2: our largest trading partner, and up till now, like you know,

451
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,679
Speaker 2: no real friction between US and Great Allies. Before the

452
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 2: markets were like, okay, something's going on here, and there

453
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,679
Speaker 2: was a drop and gold spikes and the dollar drops

454
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:29,679
Speaker 2: and the treasury bond yields go up and all of

455
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 2: that sort of stuff, and the minute that happens, he's like, yeah,

456
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 2: I got a deal.

457
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:33,160
Speaker 4: I'm done.

458
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 2: We're not invading Greenland. Goodbye, everybody. Trade War's off. So

459
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 2: I live a very very clear, consistent pattern here with

460
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 2: how he operates. It's the one thing that he seems

461
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 2: to actually care about. And I think the bonds in

462
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:46,400
Speaker 2: the bond market in.

463
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 1: Particular, I know, I totally agree with you. That's what

464
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 1: happened when Japan in Liberation Day. They're one of the

465
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 1: reasons that the treasury yields happened. I mean, you know,

466
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: in the Treasury Secretary will talk a big game. Like

467
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 1: yesterday he was like, well, Denmark is irrelevant, never comes

468
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 1: to US debt or US treasuries. But the EU as

469
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 1: a block is not. Right obviously, that's kind of the

470
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 1: entire purpose of the European Union, you know, seating all

471
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 1: their national sovereignty to or economic policy to a literal

472
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 1: central bank is specifically to try and to create a

473
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,200
Speaker 1: situation like this where they're able to exert and punch

474
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: much more above their weight. There's no way really to know,

475
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 1: you know, how this entire thing is going to go.

476
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 1: But I do think that the general schizophrenia, you can

477
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 1: take it two ways. Like you're saying with taco is

478
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 1: that you can usually count some sort of taco to happen. However,

479
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 1: each taco usually gets somebody to the brink of a

480
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:41,919
Speaker 1: potentially bad situation, and eventually something is going to happen. Like,

481
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 1: I don't even think. People what is it? What's the

482
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 1: term panicing? They're like, oh, you're a panicing? If you

483
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 1: say it's like, look, I mean, it can't always work out.

484
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 1: It just doesn't. Like read a book in generally, usually

485
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 1: you know, you'll gamble, you'll gamble, you'll push, you'll push,

486
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 1: you'll push, and you'll come from a bank. Eventually you'll

487
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 1: meet somebody who won't or they'll miss calculate, and something

488
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: will happen. And let's not forget that there was an

489
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 1: entire taco on Iran. I'm fine with that. Let's taco. Yeah,

490
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 1: I mean, let's do let's do the taco if we

491
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 1: need to. However, that situation, it got very very close,

492
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 1: and it is not, by any means, you know, on

493
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: the back burner. And in fact, that is where I

494
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 1: think that the danger comes in, is that something like

495
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: this can explode at any time, in any place, and

496
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 1: the fact that the fact is, you want these questions

497
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 1: to actually be settled. That's why I was so frustrated

498
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 1: with the Midnight Hammer discussion that we went in, we bombed,

499
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 1: and it was over, the situation is solved. I was like, Oh,

500
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 1: the situation is solved. I tell that to these Raelies.

501
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 1: So what six months later, we're right back to, oh

502
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 1: we got to strike Iron, yeah, you know, and then

503
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 1: we got to make up some shit about how they

504
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 1: canceled execuse it not true, by the way, not true.

505
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 3: Yeah.

506
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 2: Does Mark Levin, does Ben Shapiro think it's over and solved?

507
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: It's not over, right, exactly as long as the Iranian

508
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: regime stands it is an open question from their point

509
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 1: of view, not mine. The same thing. Whenever we talk

510
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 1: about what are the Venezuela even right now nobody knows

511
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 1: Delse Rodriguez allegedly coming here. I'm sure that's going to

512
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: play over super well down in Venezuela. Right, Yeah, I'm

513
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 1: sure that Venezuela, Bob Jos is gonna love that. You're

514
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 1: gonna have Cuba, which we're going to talk about with Meersheimer, like,

515
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 1: oh yeah, we're just gonna collapse the Cuban regime within

516
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: a year, it'll be fine, should work out, and jet

517
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: like you cannot. Again look at the long history of

518
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 1: all of this, and no American president, none has the

519
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 1: capacity to simultaneously run all of these things without at

520
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 1: least something going awry. And yes, look they can claim

521
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 1: immediate victory, it doesn't matter. This is you know, history

522
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 1: and all that. When we think we look back and

523
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: we'll just gloss over nine or ten months, we're all

524
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 1: living through it right now, it becomes very obvious of

525
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 1: a slow decline over a certain periods. Sometimes Iraq took

526
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: two years to truly deteriorate, Libya took months and months.

527
00:24:56,480 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 1: Afghanistan didn't truly become like a disa for the United

528
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 1: States till two thousand and eight, you know, something like that,

529
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 1: And we invaded in two thousand and one. So you

530
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 1: just have to remember that.

531
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 4: Venezo.

532
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 2: It's worth pausing for a second on Venezuela because in

533
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 2: a sense, what Trump did in Venezuela was a taco

534
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,919
Speaker 2: You know, he talked such a big game and there

535
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,679
Speaker 2: are so many you know, the Miami occupied government is

536
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 2: so strong that he had to do something. But he realized,

537
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:22,879
Speaker 2: like you know, this whole Machado thing is.

538
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 4: Probably not going to work. I don't really want.

539
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 2: To get in like that deep and do a whole

540
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: regime change on boots on the ground, et cetera. But

541
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 2: I also set all this stuff, so I got to

542
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 2: do something. And so the something he came up with

543
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 2: was let me kidnap Maduro and you know, use that

544
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,880
Speaker 2: and plus the economic threats to coerce the vice president

545
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 2: into doing what we want, which again, you know, everybody's

546
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 2: acting like this is settled. You think the Venezuelan people

547
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:52,880
Speaker 2: are going to be down with us just taking their

548
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 2: oil forever.

549
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,439
Speaker 4: I think they're going to have something to say about that.

550
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 4: But in any case, that.

551
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 2: Was the Taco And so because he did all these

552
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,719
Speaker 2: threats and talked all this big game, we now end

553
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 2: up in this situation where we are running Venezuela to

554
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 2: the benefit apparently of like a handful of Trump's cronies,

555
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 2: and with many unresolved questions about how any of this

556
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 2: is going to go in the long term.

557
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 4: So these things are not.

558
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:25,239
Speaker 2: Costless, right, They create pressures on Trump, they back him

559
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 2: into corners, and they also do I mean in a

560
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 2: way that again may end up being positive for the world.

561
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 2: Maybe not positive for the United States, but positive for

562
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: the world. They do force a reckoning from world leaders

563
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 2: of like what this, you know, American regime is really

564
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 2: all about. So they're not costless, they don't they don't

565
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 2: really leave the world in the same place as they

566
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 2: were before, even if not all that much in terms

567
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 2: of the deals that are struck, have fundamentally changed because

568
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 2: I mean again, with Venezuela, like it reminds very much

569
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 2: of Greenland. We Maduro was willing to do whatever deal

570
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 2: we wanted with him. We didn't have to kidnap him

571
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 2: and completely you know, just brazenly go full robber baron,

572
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: mafia thug, colonialists.

573
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 4: We're just going to steal your oil.

574
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 2: And now we're you know, in this situation with Venezuela

575
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 2: where we're supposedly running it. So in any case, even

576
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: though the deal at the end of the day is

577
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,679
Speaker 2: very similar to the deal that we had before, the

578
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 2: world is changed by the threats and by the actions

579
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 2: that he takes.

580
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: No question, and to expound even more on this is

581
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 1: Professor John Mehersheimer, one of our favorites, let's get to it.

582
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: Joining us now is Professor John Meihersheimer, the University of Chicago,

583
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: one of our favorite guests here on the show. It's

584
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 1: good to see you, against sir, thank you for joining us.

585
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 5: My pleasure, glad to be back.

586
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things we had to get

587
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 1: your reaction on is this now famous Mark Carney speech,

588
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: the Canadian Prime Minister about the US Western led order,

589
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 1: about many of the fictions that delight it. Why don't

590
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:57,719
Speaker 1: we take a listen and we'll get your reaction.

591
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 8: It seems that every day we're reminded that we live

592
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 8: in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules

593
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 8: based order is fading, that the strong can do what

594
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 8: they can and the weak must suffer what they must.

595
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 8: And face with this logic, there is a strong tendency

596
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 8: for countries to go along, to get along, to accommodate,

597
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 8: to avoid trouble, to hope that compliance will buy safety.

598
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 1: Well, it won't.

599
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 8: And the question for middle powers like Canada is not

600
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 8: whether to adapt to the new reality we must. The

601
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 8: question is whether we adapt by simply building higher walls,

602
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 8: or whether we can do something more ambitious. In a

603
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 8: world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have

604
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 8: a choice compete with each other for favor or to

605
00:28:55,280 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 8: combine to create a third path with impact. We shouldn't

606
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 8: allow the rise of hard power to blind us to

607
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 8: the fact that the power of legitimacy, integrity, and rules

608
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 8: will remain strong if we choose to wield them together.

609
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: Professor, your reaction to that speech in the context of

610
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 1: this Greenland situation that now may have appeared to be resolved,

611
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 1: but the tactics and the rhetoric from the Trump administration

612
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 1: cannot be taken back.

613
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 3: Well, you want to remember that Mark Carney is the

614
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 3: Prime Minister of Canada and President Trump referred to his

615
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 3: predecessor as the governor of the fifty first state of

616
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:42,959
Speaker 3: the United States. And he's made it clear, President Trump

617
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 3: that he has his gun sights on Canada as well

618
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 3: as on Greenland, although Greenland's getting all the attention these days.

619
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 3: So Carney is well aware of what he's dealing with.

620
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 3: And Carney made what I think is in many ways

621
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 3: a brilliant sp beach that made it clear that he

622
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 3: understands that Trump represents a fundamental threat to the so

623
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 3: called Western order or the rules based order. If you

624
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 3: listen to most European leaders, they want to accommodate Trump.

625
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 3: They think that by appeasing Trump they can get Trump

626
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 3: to play ball with them. I think Carney fully understands

627
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 3: and quite correctly, that that's a wrong way to deal

628
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 3: with Trump. Trump is interested basically in wrecking NATO. Trump

629
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 3: is not interested in having good relations with the Europeans,

630
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 3: and he has a huge amount of power, and he's

631
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 3: going to use that number one to take Greenland and

632
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 3: number two to do great damage to the Western Alliance,

633
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 3: which he has little use for. And basically what Carney

634
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 3: was doing was spelling that out. He was telling brutal

635
00:30:56,360 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 3: truths to the audience at Davos. That's basically what's going

636
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 3: on there.

637
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 2: Do you think that this whole Greenland episode has been

638
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 2: an effective wake up call for European leaders as well?

639
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 3: Yes, I think there's no question about that. The key

640
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 3: point here is that Denmark effectively owns Greenland, or put

641
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 3: it to put it in more benign terms, Greenland is

642
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 3: in effect part of Denmark, and Trump until yesterday was

643
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 3: threatening to use military force to take Greenland away from

644
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 3: Denmark and make it part of the United States. If

645
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 3: that were to happen, that would be one NATO member,

646
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 3: the United States effectively going to war against another NATO member.

647
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 3: This is really quite shocking. Of course, you want to

648
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 3: understand that before all of this hullabaloo about Greenland, all

649
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 3: sorts of frictions had arisen within the Alliance. Ukraine is

650
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 3: a really good example. The Europeans and the Trump administration

651
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 3: have long been doing battle over how to deal with Ukraine,

652
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 3: and Trump is fed up with the Europeans for resisting

653
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 3: his efforts to try to strike a deal with Putin.

654
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,959
Speaker 3: So when you look at that past history regarding Ukraine,

655
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 3: you can understand why Putin a should mean why Trump

656
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 3: is willing to play hardball with the Europeans and he's

657
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 3: willing to facilitate some sort of divorce across the Atlantic Ocean.

658
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: You know, professor, you know, in the context of your

659
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: overall work and looking at this, how do you see

660
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 1: a quote new world order emerging as a result not

661
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:43,479
Speaker 1: just of this action, but of the broad spectrum of

662
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 1: what Donald Trump has now done in his first year

663
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: in office.

664
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 3: Well, I think you want to realize that there's sort

665
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 3: of two dimensions to Trump's foreign policy. One is the

666
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 3: great power politics dimension, and that's how he deals with

667
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 3: Russia and how he deals with China, and in terms

668
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 3: of US China relations, things are actually quite calm these days.

669
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 3: There's not a lot of trouble in East Asia, and

670
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 3: with regard to the Russians, Trump is doing everything he

671
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 3: can to foster good relations with the Russians. So in

672
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 3: terms of great power politics, where we have this multipolar world,

673
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 3: where we've moved from unipolarity to multipolarity, you don't see

674
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 3: a lot of trouble between the United States under President

675
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 3: Trump and the Russians and the Chinese. On the other side,

676
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 3: it's with middle size and smaller countries where Trump is

677
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 3: really ruffling feathers, and where you see Trump behaving in

678
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 3: quite radical ways, so that you know he's picking on

679
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 3: countries like Canada. He's picking on countries like Venezuela, Iran,

680
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 3: He's threatening to take Greenland. He's playing hardball with the Europeans.

681
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 3: And this is not great power politics. Trump is a

682
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 3: very smart man in the sense that he understands that

683
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 3: he cannot beat up on the Chinese or on the Russians.

684
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:24,320
Speaker 3: He has to work out some sort of modus vivendi

685
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 3: with them, at least for the time being. But for

686
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 3: weaker countries, middle sized countries including Allies, and smaller countries

687
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 3: including Allies. He's willing to play hardball with them. He's

688
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 3: willing to whipsaw them. And this is what you see

689
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 3: taking place today.

690
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,879
Speaker 2: So if you have a Prime Minister Mark Carney sort

691
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:51,839
Speaker 2: of ripping the mask off the Western led order and acknowledging,

692
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 2: I think, what is now the present reality that that

693
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 2: is dead or dying, that we're moving into something different.

694
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 2: What are the possibility for what that something different looks like,

695
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,280
Speaker 2: and what are the implications specifically for America.

696
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 3: Well, if you listen to Mark Carney speak, he believes

697
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 3: that these middle powers can pursue a third way and

698
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 3: that they can form a non aligned movement. He believes,

699
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 3: and he says this very clearly, that these middle range

700
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 3: powers can create their own institutions. And in that regard,

701
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 3: I think he's wrong. It's great powers to create institutions,

702
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 3: that it's great powers that create international orders, and countries

703
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:39,959
Speaker 3: like Canada have remarkably little maneuver room. So I think

704
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:43,319
Speaker 3: he's wrong in thinking that he can do that.

705
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 5: Now.

706
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 3: With regard to what the international order looks like moving forward,

707
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 3: it is important to understand that President Trump is taking

708
00:35:55,120 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 3: a sledgehammer to the international order. If you think about NATO,

709
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 3: he is, I think, trying to wreck NATO. He has

710
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 3: no interest in maintaining NATO. He has a little interest

711
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 3: in the Alliance. But also he's now putting forward this

712
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 3: Board of Peace and as many people have argued, the

713
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 3: Board of Peace is basically now become a substitute for

714
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 3: the United Nations. He has no use for the United

715
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 3: Nations either. And of course he recently withdrew from sixty

716
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:31,479
Speaker 3: six international organizations. It's really quite amazing. So you see

717
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 3: that President Trump, as Mark Carney makes clear, is a

718
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 3: wrecking ball when it comes to the international order. And

719
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 3: then when you start thinking about what's going to replace

720
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 3: these institutions that he's wrecking, what is the new international

721
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 3: order going to look like? It's quite clear that to

722
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 3: the extent President Trump is interested in international institutions, he

723
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 3: wants international institutions that he runs. This whole subject of

724
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 3: the Board of Piece is quite remarkable. It started out

725
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 3: as an institution that was designed to facilitate a peace agreement,

726
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:14,879
Speaker 3: a peace accord in Gaza. It's now morphed into this

727
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 3: international institution, at least in his mind, that he runs

728
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 3: and he sees it as a replacement for the United Nations.

729
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 5: This is not going to work.

730
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 3: This is not going to be a meaningful international institution.

731
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 3: So I think, given that President Trump is going to

732
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 3: be in power for three more years, international institutions are

733
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 3: not going to have a whole heck of a lot

734
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 3: of effect on how international politics is conducted. That's not

735
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 3: to say they're going to be irrelevant, but as long

736
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 3: as he's in power, and as long as the United

737
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 3: States remains so powerful relative to all the other countries

738
00:37:56,440 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 3: in the world, international law and international institutions are probably

739
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 3: going to matter less than they have at least since

740
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:06,319
Speaker 3: nineteen forty five, you.

741
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 1: Know, Professor at the same at the time when we

742
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 1: were talking about great power politics and you know, this

743
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 1: embrace of the Donroe doctrine as he would call it,

744
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 1: with Venezuela some element at least of realism, we also

745
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 1: saw this bizarre emergence, not even two weeks ago, of

746
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:27,919
Speaker 1: complete neo conservative ideology, with this idea that we could

747
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 1: just bombard the Iranian regime as a result of their

748
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: alleged crackdown on protesters. And the President seems absolutely committed,

749
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 1: you know, to this idea. That if Iranian regime executes

750
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: some protesters that that would immediately bring about the bombing

751
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:48,840
Speaker 1: of the entire country. He doubled down on this in

752
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: a recent interview. Let's take a listen.

753
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 9: There are reports that they're still burning thousands of protesters alive.

754
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:58,280
Speaker 9: They also issued an assassination threat against you over the weekend.

755
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 9: I know that you can't talk about what's on the table,

756
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 9: but what is your response to Iran's leadership in the

757
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:08,879
Speaker 9: regime continuing to taunt you, threaten you, especially given over

758
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 9: the weekend you said.

759
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:11,280
Speaker 4: It's time for new leadership in Iran.

760
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 6: Well, they shouldn't be doing it. But I've left notification.

761
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 6: Anything ever happens, we're going to blow the help. The

762
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 6: whole country is going to get blown up. So we've

763
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 6: you know, originally Biden should have said something. You know,

764
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,760
Speaker 6: when they made a statement, we always said why doesn't

765
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 6: Biden saying anything?

766
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 5: Because he didn't.

767
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:33,479
Speaker 6: But a president has to defend a president. Like if

768
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 6: I were here and they were making that threat to somebody,

769
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 6: even not even a president, but somebody like they did

770
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 6: with me, I would absolutely hit them so hard. But

771
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 6: I have very firm instructions. Anything happens, They're going to

772
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:49,280
Speaker 6: wipe them off the face of this earth.

773
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 1: What do you make of this, sir? You know, the

774
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 1: American ride is trying to tie this into some alleged

775
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:57,320
Speaker 1: assassination attempt, but you know, again, the preemption is this

776
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 1: crackdown on protesters. It just seems so totally out of

777
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 1: step with any sort of realism or great power understanding

778
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 1: and a complete fantastical embrace.

779
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:13,240
Speaker 3: Well, it's very important to understand that this is Israel

780
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 3: in the United States working together number one to topple

781
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 3: the regime in Tehran and number two to break the

782
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 3: country apart the way the Israelis and the Turks broke

783
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 3: apart Syria. And the real trouble started in late December

784
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:35,799
Speaker 3: of last year, that's December twenty twenty five, when protests

785
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 3: started in Iran, and we played a key role in

786
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:46,359
Speaker 3: fueling those protests. And the idea was that the protests

787
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 3: would turn violent, and we had agents and the Israelis

788
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 3: had agents inside of Iran that were helping to turn

789
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 3: the protests violent. And the idea was that once the

790
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 3: protests gained a lot of momentum and it looked like

791
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 3: the regime was going to topple. Then the United States

792
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:10,320
Speaker 3: would move in with military force. So we were planning

793
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 3: to move in with military force. The Iranian government cracks

794
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 3: down on January eighth. And when the Iranian government cracks

795
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 3: down and it looks like they're having an effect on

796
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 3: dampening the protests, we begin to think about moving in

797
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 3: with military force because we want to topple that regime.

798
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,320
Speaker 3: And when I say we, I mean the United States

799
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 3: and the Israelis. But what happens is that on January fourteenth,

800
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 3: Trump backs off. And the question is why does Trump

801
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 3: back off? And there are two reasons that he backs off.

802
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 3: The first is his military commanders tell him that he

803
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:56,800
Speaker 3: cannot win a decisive victory if he uses military force.

804
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 3: And the reason is that the government in Tehran has

805
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 3: bad basically quelled the protests, so the protests are not

806
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 3: swelling to the point where the American military can come

807
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 3: in and deliver the final blow the coup de gras. Right,

808
00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 3: We're not in a position to do that by January fourteenth,

809
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 3: so Trump begins to cool as jets. The second thing

810
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 3: that happens is net Yahoo calls him and net Yaho

811
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 3: tells him he does not want Trump to use military

812
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 3: force because as long as the regime is in power,

813
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 3: and it looks like it's going to be in power

814
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 3: on January fourteenth, that means the regime will launch ballistic

815
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 3: missiles and cruise missiles at Israel and Israel cannot defend itself.

816
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 3: This argument is hardly ever heard in the West, but

817
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 3: you have to understand that in the Twelve Day War

818
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 3: last June, what the Israelis wanted to do after twelve

819
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 3: days was end that war because they were incapable of

820
00:42:56,239 --> 00:43:00,720
Speaker 3: defending themselves. The Iranians had learned how to get lots

821
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,880
Speaker 3: of ballistic and cruise missiles through their defenses, and the

822
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:08,280
Speaker 3: Israelies were running out of defensive missiles. So the Israelis

823
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 3: were in real trouble and push Trump to end the

824
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 3: war after twelve days. Well, the situation has not changed.

825
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 3: If the regime is in place in Tehran and is

826
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:23,320
Speaker 3: capable of launching ballistic missiles at Israel, Israel would really

827
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 3: be pounded and Natanya who recognized that. So it's very

828
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 3: important to understand that the Israelies on January fourteenth asked

829
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 3: us not to bomb Iran at again. The American military said,

830
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 3: you can bomb Iran, but you're not going to get

831
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 3: regime change, and in large part because the protests had

832
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 3: failed by January fourteenth, because on January eighth, the government

833
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 3: in Tehran started to crack down. So this is what's

834
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 3: going on there. But of course, as you well know,

835
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 3: this game is not over. The United States and the

836
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 3: Israelis will continue to look for ways to have regime

837
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 3: change in Iran, and they will continue to look for

838
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:07,240
Speaker 3: ways to use military force to help topple that regime.

839
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 2: Let me go ahead and put B three up on

840
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:13,800
Speaker 2: the screen here, guys, and let me get your reaction

841
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 2: to this, Professor Romiersheimer. So one of the theories that

842
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: I've seen from people who are hoping that we attack Iran, frankly,

843
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:25,280
Speaker 2: is that this is just a pause while we move

844
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 2: appropriate assets into the region, because we had a lot

845
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 2: of things far afield to deal with the whole Venezuela

846
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 2: situation that Trump created, and so this is just a

847
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 2: pause to bring more assets in. And actually what it

848
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:40,240
Speaker 2: means is that we're going to do something even bigger

849
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,840
Speaker 2: than what was potentially originally intended. Do you think that

850
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 2: there is any credence? Do you think that there's that

851
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 2: is something that we should be concerned about.

852
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 3: Well, we should definitely be concerned about it. You know,

853
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:55,760
Speaker 3: we live in a very dangerous world and President Trump

854
00:44:55,840 --> 00:45:00,759
Speaker 3: makes that world increasingly dangerous by the day by his

855
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 3: rhetoric and by his actions. So we should be concerned.

856
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:07,799
Speaker 3: But having said that, what are we going to do

857
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 3: with all of that military force to affect regime change

858
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:19,320
Speaker 3: in Iran? The fact is the regime is in place

859
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 3: and there's no way all that air power that we

860
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 3: have in the region can topple the regime. You see,

861
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,759
Speaker 3: you want to understand that, starting in late December, we

862
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 3: and the Israelis thought that with the protests, with the

863
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 3: protest we could topple the regime. The protesters were going

864
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 3: to do the heavy lifting. The protesters were going to

865
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:45,919
Speaker 3: undermine the regime, and then we were going to come

866
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 3: in and deliver the coup de gras with American military power.

867
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 3: But once the protests fail between January eighth and January fourteenth,

868
00:45:57,280 --> 00:46:01,360
Speaker 3: it doesn't make sense to use American military power because

869
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 3: we no longer have the protests working in our favor.

870
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 3: So using military force just doesn't make just it doesn't

871
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 3: make sense. There's no question we can pound that country.

872
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:19,800
Speaker 3: Bringing in all that firepower will definitely re destruction on Iran.

873
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 3: But the question you have to ask yourself is what

874
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 3: will the regime which remains in place do as a consequence.

875
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 3: And Number one is I just explained the regime will

876
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 3: pound Israel, and the Israelis don't want that. Secondly, the

877
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 3: regime will go after American military basis and American troops

878
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 3: in the region, and we really don't want that. And

879
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 3: the third thing is that the regime in Tehran is

880
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 3: likely to shut down the straits of horror moves and

881
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 3: therefore shut down the flow of oil out of the

882
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 3: Persian Gulf, which would have devastating effects on the international economy.

883
00:46:56,800 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 3: So the point is that as long as the regime

884
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:03,640
Speaker 3: in Tehran is in power, it doesn't make sense to

885
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 3: hit them with American military power or Israeli military power,

886
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 3: because the regime in Tehran has retaliatory options. Again, what

887
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 3: we had hoped to do was topple the regime, and

888
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:21,280
Speaker 3: the American military would come in at the last moment

889
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 3: and facilitate that outcome.

890
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 1: One of the things that's really struck me, Professor, is

891
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:33,760
Speaker 1: just I mean, I was always pessimistic about the American military,

892
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:37,320
Speaker 1: but learning about how twenty five percent of that interceptors

893
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 1: were used just in the Twelve Day War. Learning even

894
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,360
Speaker 1: in this scenario where they wanted to strike Iran or

895
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 1: potentially and they had to bring a carrier from the

896
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 1: South China. See, all of our naval armada is stuck

897
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:52,240
Speaker 1: in the Caribbean and across the world. We were unable

898
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 1: to defeat the Hoothy campaign. It does seem as if

899
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 1: there are severe limitations on American power as Trump is

900
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 1: trying to embrace this world policeman, this world policeman, but

901
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 1: only in certain selected areas strategy. How do you think

902
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 1: that will collide with reality at some point or has

903
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 1: it already?

904
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 3: Well, let me just put out that I agree with

905
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 3: everything you just said, very important what you just said,

906
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:19,359
Speaker 3: but just to come in it from a slightly different perspective.

907
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 3: You want to remember that we didn't do regime change

908
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 3: in Venezuela. All we did was take away Maduro and

909
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 3: elevate the vice president to the presidency. The regime remains

910
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:34,280
Speaker 3: in place. Yes, what we tried to do in Iran

911
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 3: was regime change. Now, when we did regime change in

912
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,760
Speaker 3: the past, we had boots on the ground. Remember Iraq,

913
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:46,920
Speaker 3: Remember Afghanistan. The last thing Trump wants to do is

914
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 3: have boots on the ground. He's not interested in engaging

915
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 3: and social engineering. That's why the protesters are so important.

916
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 3: They are, in effect, our boots on the ground. But

917
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 3: once that does at work right, then you can't use

918
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 3: American military power. All this is to say there are

919
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 3: great limits to what you can do with military power,

920
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 3: and this is something that I think Trump intuitively understands.

921
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 3: His predecessors did not understand that, which is why we

922
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:25,360
Speaker 3: invaded Iran. I mean, excuse me, invaded Iraq and engaged

923
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:29,239
Speaker 3: in social engineering with boots on the ground. Trump understands

924
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:31,720
Speaker 3: you can't do that. That's why he didn't pursue regime

925
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:35,400
Speaker 3: change in Venezuela, and it's why he's not putting boots

926
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 3: on the ground in Iran. But the point is that

927
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:41,879
Speaker 3: there are lots of people in the body politic who

928
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 3: just think we can drive aircraft carriers into the region,

929
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 3: use those aircraft carriers to topple the regime in Iran,

930
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 3: and then march on to the next target. It doesn't

931
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,640
Speaker 3: work that way. There are real limits to what you

932
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 3: can do with military power, which again is why we've

933
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 3: put boots on the ground in the past, and I

934
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:06,880
Speaker 3: think that Trump understands that, and that's why Trump, although

935
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 3: he has used military force quite liberally since taking office,

936
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 3: I count seven different countries that he's attacked, and of

937
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:19,799
Speaker 3: course he's threatening to take Greenland with military force, or

938
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 3: he has been threatening to take Greenland with military force.

939
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 3: Although he uses military force liberally, he uses it in

940
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 3: a pinprick fashion. He doesn't invade countries and end up

941
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 3: with boots on the ground. And as long as he

942
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:38,359
Speaker 3: doesn't end up with boots on the ground, he will

943
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 3: be pretty much free to use military force here and

944
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 3: there against weak adversaries. But the end result is not

945
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 3: that significant because they're just real limits to what you

946
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 3: can do with air power alone. Or by removing Maduro

947
00:50:57,200 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 3: and replacing him with Miss Rodriguez, it just doesn't add

948
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 3: up to that much.

949
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about one more country. Using that analysis,

950
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:07,959
Speaker 2: put b five up on the screen. The Wall Street

951
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:12,880
Speaker 2: Journal reporting that the US is actively seeking regime change

952
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 2: in Cuba by the end of the year after ousing

953
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 2: Venezuela's leader. The Trump administration is searching for Havana insiders

954
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:21,319
Speaker 2: who could cut a deal to end communists rule. Let

955
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:23,319
Speaker 2: me just read a couple of the first paragraphs here.

956
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:26,720
Speaker 2: Emboldened by the US ouster of Venezuelan President Nicola Maduro,

957
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 2: the Trump administration is searching for Cuban government insiders who

958
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 2: can help cut a deal to push out the communist

959
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 2: regime by the end of the year. The Trump administration

960
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 2: has assessed Cuba's economy as being close to collapse, that

961
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 2: the government has never been this fragile after losing a

962
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:43,920
Speaker 2: vital benefactor in Maduro. These people said officials do not

963
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:46,480
Speaker 2: have a concrete plan to end the communist government that

964
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 2: has held power in the Caribbean island from the seven decades,

965
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 2: but they see Maduro's capture and subsequent concessions from his

966
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 2: allies left behind as a blueprint and a warning for Cuba.

967
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 2: According to senior US officials, quote I strongly suggest they

968
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:02,479
Speaker 2: make a deal before it is too late. President Trump

969
00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 2: state in a Genuary eleventh social media post in which

970
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 2: he said, quote.

971
00:52:05,680 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 4: No more oil or money would.

972
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:10,799
Speaker 2: Be going to Cuba. So what do you think the

973
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:12,479
Speaker 2: plans are for Cuba here?

974
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:14,400
Speaker 5: Well, I think.

975
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 3: That the Trump administration, especially because of the influence of

976
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 3: Secretary of State Mark or Rubio is interested in doing

977
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:29,920
Speaker 3: big time social engineering in all of Latin America. Very

978
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:36,919
Speaker 3: important to emphasize that the Americans have long been completely

979
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 3: intolerant of left leaning governments in the Western hemisphere.

980
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:44,080
Speaker 5: We have a rich history, as you.

981
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:47,759
Speaker 3: Both know very well, of toppling governments in places like

982
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 3: Chile and Guatemala that we thought were to the left

983
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 3: of center. We just do not like governments of that sort.

984
00:52:55,800 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 3: And we've had no greater adversary since nineteen hundred in

985
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 3: the Western Hemisphere. Then Cuba, it goes back to Whinfidel

986
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:08,439
Speaker 3: Castro took over there in nineteen fifty nine. So we've

987
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:11,959
Speaker 3: long had our gun sights on Cuba, and I think

988
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 3: that in terms of the moment, I think that the

989
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:20,439
Speaker 3: Trump administration would like to produce regime change in Cuba, Nicaragua,

990
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 3: and Venezuela, but Cuba is definitely number two on the

991
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:29,719
Speaker 3: hit list. And what the administration is doing is not

992
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 3: using military power. It's not putting boots on the ground,

993
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 3: for sure, but it's using our tremendous economic leverage in

994
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 3: the region to hopefully, from their point of view, topple

995
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 3: the regime in Cuba. And what we think we can

996
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 3: do is by controlling venezuel Venezuela and oil. Make sure

997
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 3: that the Cuban economy, which is in terrible shape even

998
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:59,800
Speaker 3: when it's getting venezuela and oil, will be in disastrous

999
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 3: shit when the flow of venezuela and oil to Cuba

1000
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 3: is completely cut off, which is what we're now in

1001
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:11,360
Speaker 3: the process of doing. So we want regime change in Cuba,

1002
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 3: but it's again another example of Trump pursuing regime change

1003
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 3: on the cheap.

1004
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:20,359
Speaker 2: Is this just an ideological I mean, I know it's

1005
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:24,240
Speaker 2: an ideological fixation for Rubio, but there is there anything

1006
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:26,479
Speaker 2: beyond that. I mean, with Venezuela, first we were sold

1007
00:54:26,520 --> 00:54:29,600
Speaker 2: this nonsense about drugs. Then we were sold just like now,

1008
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 2: we're just taking the oil. I mean, there are a

1009
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 2: lot of natural resources in Venezuela, Cuba not so much.

1010
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 2: So is this just surely an ideological project? Is that

1011
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 2: the rationale behind it?

1012
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 3: I think that the principal factor that explains American military

1013
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:53,279
Speaker 3: intervention in Latin America since nineteen hundred is ideology, and

1014
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:58,279
Speaker 3: it's our deep seated fear of left wing governments. And

1015
00:54:58,280 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 3: we're not even talking about far left governments here, like

1016
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:03,560
Speaker 3: you saw under Allende in Chile.

1017
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 5: That's not what we're talking about.

1018
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:12,160
Speaker 3: Even moderately liberal governments really spook us, and we often

1019
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 3: do regime change, and we often do it at the

1020
00:55:15,280 --> 00:55:19,400
Speaker 3: end of a rifle barrel, but not always. Now, just

1021
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 3: to go back to Venezuela and to pick up on

1022
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 3: what you were saying, Crystal, you remember in the beginning

1023
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 3: it was Narco terrorism. Then when that argument began to

1024
00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 3: lose its punch, they started talking about the Monroe doctrine

1025
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:38,960
Speaker 3: as if you know, China and Russia were taking over

1026
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 3: the Western hemisphere. But that didn't make any sense. And

1027
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:47,360
Speaker 3: then when Trump finally went in, the explanation became oil,

1028
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 3: but oil was not touted is the main reason for

1029
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:55,320
Speaker 3: going into venez Weell. For most of the period before

1030
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 3: the kidnapping, it wasn't like oil was front and center

1031
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 3: as the argument. I was saying on various podcasts that

1032
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 3: I thought the principal reason was ideology. But you want

1033
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:10,719
Speaker 3: to remember that ideology and oil are tied together, because

1034
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:14,759
Speaker 3: when you talk about oil, what bothered the Americans was

1035
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:19,400
Speaker 3: the nationalization of Venezuela and oil. Who are these Venezuelans

1036
00:56:19,400 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 3: to nationalize their own oil? This is unacceptable. American oil

1037
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:26,560
Speaker 3: companies should be free to come down there and exploit

1038
00:56:26,680 --> 00:56:30,480
Speaker 3: Venezuela and oil. That's basically the view of the Trump administration,

1039
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 3: and that is inextricably bound up with left right issues right,

1040
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:41,320
Speaker 3: and of course the Chavez government and now the Maduro government,

1041
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:46,839
Speaker 3: these were socialist governments. Anytime you use the word socialism,

1042
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 3: you know the trouble is in store for that country

1043
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 3: that identifies itself as a socialist country. So I think

1044
00:56:54,680 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 3: the oil issue morphed into the oil Excuse me, the

1045
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:05,080
Speaker 3: oil issue and the ideology issue were tied together. But

1046
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 3: as you point out, in the case of Cuba, there's

1047
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:10,920
Speaker 3: no oil issue, right. Cuba doesn't have oil. Cuba is

1048
00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:15,720
Speaker 3: not Venezuela. There, it's I think purely the ideological issue.

1049
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 1: Got it well. Last question for me for you, sir,

1050
00:57:18,520 --> 00:57:21,720
Speaker 1: is about potential blowback. So if they're basking the Trump administration,

1051
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 1: when I talk to them in their glory of Iran,

1052
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:29,120
Speaker 1: of Venezuela, they genuinely feel as if nothing can go wrong.

1053
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:31,120
Speaker 1: I often point out that it took many years from

1054
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:34,440
Speaker 1: many interventions or others to fall apart. How do you

1055
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:37,640
Speaker 1: see the potential blowback or complications in all of these scenarios.

1056
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:41,480
Speaker 3: Well, they've failed in Iran. I mean, we're going to

1057
00:57:41,480 --> 00:57:45,120
Speaker 3: be very clear on this. The American media, the mainstream media,

1058
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:47,320
Speaker 3: will not say this right. They will not say that

1059
00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:51,080
Speaker 3: this was a colossal failure which just happened in Iran.

1060
00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 3: And of course there is a possibility that at some

1061
00:57:54,160 --> 00:57:57,760
Speaker 3: point in the future the regime in Iran will be toppled,

1062
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:00,040
Speaker 3: so we can't say it will never happen, but it

1063
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 3: has not happened so far. With regard to Venezuela, they

1064
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 3: think this was a great victory, but I think that

1065
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 3: you want to remember that after we toppled the regime

1066
00:58:11,280 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 3: in Iraq, President George W. Bush landed on an aircraft

1067
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:22,720
Speaker 3: carrier and he declared mission accomplished. I think that the

1068
00:58:22,760 --> 00:58:29,040
Speaker 3: Trump administration is duplicating what the Bush administration did back

1069
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 3: in two thousand and three. They're declaring that the mission

1070
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:35,040
Speaker 3: has been accomplished. We're going to live happily. Ever after

1071
00:58:35,240 --> 00:58:38,520
Speaker 3: viz A viv Venezuela. I would not bet a lot

1072
00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:40,800
Speaker 3: of money on that. The idea that a bunch of

1073
00:58:40,840 --> 00:58:46,920
Speaker 3: gringoes from up north can come down and run Venezuelan politics,

1074
00:58:46,920 --> 00:58:49,120
Speaker 3: and you want to remember that this is what President

1075
00:58:49,240 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 3: Trump said he was going to do. He said he

1076
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:55,600
Speaker 3: was going to run Venezuelan politics, and furthermore, we're going

1077
00:58:55,640 --> 00:58:58,000
Speaker 3: to steal their oil and we're going to get away

1078
00:58:58,040 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 3: with that in a country where there is a powerful

1079
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:04,760
Speaker 3: sense of nationalism. I would not bet a lot of

1080
00:59:04,800 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 3: money on this. There's a long road ahead for the

1081
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:11,960
Speaker 3: United States in Venezuela, and I believe that the mission

1082
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:15,720
Speaker 3: accomplished argument will not look like a good one a

1083
00:59:15,800 --> 00:59:20,560
Speaker 3: year or two from now. And with regard to blowback,

1084
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:24,919
Speaker 3: there's obviously lots of blowback in the system. The Mark

1085
00:59:25,000 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 3: Carney speech at Davos that we just talked about is

1086
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 3: an example of blowback. The Europeans are beginning to push

1087
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 3: back on us, not very hard at the moment, but

1088
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:38,720
Speaker 3: they are beginning to push back. And we're going to

1089
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 3: have trouble in different places around the world that we

1090
00:59:42,280 --> 00:59:46,000
Speaker 3: don't have to have if we would act smartly. But

1091
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:48,520
Speaker 3: the key point you want to keep in mind is

1092
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:53,480
Speaker 3: that the United States is an incredibly powerful country and

1093
00:59:53,560 --> 01:00:00,160
Speaker 3: it operates an integrated international economy. The international economy he

1094
01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 3: is highly integrated, and that integration provides us with enormous

1095
01:00:07,040 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 3: leverage over virtually every country on the planet except for

1096
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 3: maybe China and Russia. So we use the Trump administration

1097
01:00:18,200 --> 01:00:24,080
Speaker 3: uses that economic leverage liberally to get its way. And

1098
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:29,560
Speaker 3: it also that economic leverage causes countries to be very

1099
01:00:29,600 --> 01:00:33,600
Speaker 3: fearful of fighting back against us. They don't want to

1100
01:00:33,640 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 3: get on the wrong side of us. This is why

1101
01:00:36,040 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 3: so many countries are now rushing to join the Board

1102
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 3: of Peace. President Trump wants them to join the Board

1103
01:00:42,400 --> 01:00:44,800
Speaker 3: of Peace. Okay, let's join the Board of Peace, because

1104
01:00:44,800 --> 01:00:47,400
Speaker 3: we don't want to anger him. Given the power that

1105
01:00:47,480 --> 01:00:50,800
Speaker 3: he has, and giving given how willing he is to

1106
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 3: use that power, we have to be very careful. So

1107
01:00:54,560 --> 01:00:57,479
Speaker 3: the point I'm making to you is, given just how

1108
01:00:57,520 --> 01:01:01,480
Speaker 3: powerful the United States is, specially on the economic front,

1109
01:01:01,720 --> 01:01:04,480
Speaker 3: and in a funny way, more on the economic front

1110
01:01:04,520 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 3: than the military front, we are able to whip saw

1111
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:11,280
Speaker 3: countries and not face that much blowback.

1112
01:01:12,480 --> 01:01:14,240
Speaker 4: Well, we really appreciate your time.

1113
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:16,240
Speaker 2: We know how in demand you are, so thank you

1114
01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:18,400
Speaker 2: so much, professor for your analysis this morning.

1115
01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:19,520
Speaker 4: We're incredibly grateful.

1116
01:01:19,520 --> 01:01:20,360
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, sir.

1117
01:01:20,680 --> 01:01:23,400
Speaker 5: You're more than welcome. I thoroughly enjoyed talking.

1118
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:25,760
Speaker 1: To you as as we as did we. We'll see

1119
01:01:25,760 --> 01:01:26,080
Speaker 1: you later.