WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 11 Preview 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:13.000 Check it down Man Now Down Now. Thursday morning, November 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.840 four nine, Team Up Feeding the Book Podcast. It's Gill Alexander. 0:00:16.920 --> 0:00:21.560 It is the Megapod week number eleven in the National 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:23.720 Football League. Is always the staples of the show the 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:26.680 stars from Circus Sports Derek Stephen's conciliary. He is the 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:30.200 vice president of operations. It is Michael Palm. Everybody, Good morning, Michael, 0:00:30.240 --> 0:00:33.519 good morning. I'm doing very well. You're looking good. We're 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:36.280 all on video here except for our guest. And I 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:39.040 just want to say that our our cohort is shirtless, 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:42.919 and it is. It's disturbing, is what it is. It's 0:00:42.920 --> 0:00:45.800 Todd wishing of everybody. Hello Todd, why no shirt? You 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:47.839 can only see my face? So why don't you just 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:50.640 zip it already? Okay, that's not what we saw before 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:53.080 and it wasn't pretty. I just want to say that. 0:00:53.400 --> 0:00:55.480 So this show, this show is under protest. Just want 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:57.840 to point that out. And our rotating guests of the day. 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:00.960 He is back on the show. Uh. He is producer 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:03.560 number one of the numbers game at Visa. But you 0:01:03.600 --> 0:01:06.480 know him as one of the staples of is it 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:08.960 called Clear Data Sports? Still Michael, is that the is 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:12.479 that the name still Clear Sports, Clear Data Sports. It's 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:16.319 Michael Lamborn. Hello, Michael, good morning, Gail. Happy to be back, mikey, 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:18.880 so good to hear from you. You've been okay, I've 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:21.559 been doing well. Yeah. I have this minimize the screen 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:23.080 so I don't have to look at Todd here, but 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:27.280 I'm listening. Then for sure, Todd is now eating one 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:30.959 I don't even know the guy, and he takes up 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:35.720 with the evil Gil and Mike Palm Cartel to try 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:39.200 to take me down. Thanks Mike or Cartel's not like 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:42.760 you've ever mistreated guests or anything, Todd, right, never, never 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:45.880 at all. Uh. Let's let's begin with the clear People 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:47.960 can't see the video, so it's it's not as funny 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:51.400 Clear Data Sports. Uh is. By the way, Michael, I 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:54.360 should tell you, Michael Lamborn, Clear Data Sports. Part of 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:57.640 the reason why Marco and Ace are not here anymore. 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:00.400 I never told this story publicly, but one of the 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:03.920 reasons that Marco and and those guys were upset with 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:06.520 me is because they thought that I worked with you 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:09.800 guys to try to poach one of their people from them, 0:02:11.000 --> 0:02:13.920 Ralph Michael's and I told them I go, you do 0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:16.960 realize I don't work for Clear Day Sports. Those are 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:20.280 just my buddies. I would have actually told them to 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:23.840 stop trying to poach Ralph Michael's from you guys. Marco 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:27.399 was like, oh, I guess well we'll strike that one. 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:29.519 That's pretty juicy. I think you have an idea for 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:31.200 a new podcast their deal. You can do like the 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:34.080 backstory of the sports betting industry. I think that might 0:02:34.120 --> 0:02:37.520 be the best show of them all. All right, we 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:39.919 always started the show with the Circus Sports Update. I 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:42.520 was on drugs because of my roptrare achille, so I 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:46.359 failed to even submit my Circus Sports picks last week. Mike, 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:48.600 what's the update? Who's in the lead? Well, you know, 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:50.720 I guess I should have prepared a little better for 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:53.280 this um, but I didn't have time to tell me 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:57.160 the order of the show. Oh yeah, good preparation, Mike. 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:01.800 It's like you've ready Wednesday morning. I know this. The 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:04.399 leader is actually higher than the leader at the west Gate. 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.240 I found because remember the west Gate that got guys 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:09.359 started out twenty seven and three and was like two 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:13.200 and a half games ahead of our leader. That's thirty 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:15.799 five and a half, right, Mike, Yeah, let's see here 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:20.640 we got overall, we have thirty six and a half 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:24.760 is the lead U M J. Tadeh thirty six and 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:28.520 a half, and then we have four entries including CB 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:31.480 Elite that won the first quarter at thirty four and 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:35.840 a half. Two games back. Where are you talking? I'm 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:38.800 at twenty seven and a half after my disaster. Oh 0:03:38.800 --> 0:03:40.960 in five weeks, I went three and two last week, 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:45.600 I'm a twenty seven, twenty two and one. All I 0:03:45.640 --> 0:03:49.640 gotta do here is have a complete sweep of the 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:51.120 board and I'll probably win a whole thing and you 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:54.800 can still get the money. Maybe steel in the third 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:58.000 in the third quarter, one entry halfway through at nine 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:02.240 and a half, and excuse me, six entries at nine 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:06.080 and fifteen entries at eight and a half right now? 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.640 So what no tens? In other words, no tens? You said, 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:13.160 no perfect tens for the first two weeks. No perfect tens. 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:20.359 December contest a five week contest, Yes, that is correct. Alright, 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:23.560 Let's begin with the Thursday night game. Boys Tonight, pretty 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:27.960 good Thursday night game, a f C North clash between 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:31.599 the Steelers and the Browns. The Browns are three point favorites, 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:33.680 I guess three on guessing lines was two and a 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:36.680 half at the time. It has come to me at three. Uh, 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:41.520 Steelers defense out standing with Minka Fitzpatrick back there, I 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:45.960 turnover producing machine. Offense not so much, but Pittsburgh coming 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:50.560 off their win against the Rams Cleveland beating Buffalo, outlasting Buffalo, 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:54.360 staving them off for a ninet sixt win in that ballgame. 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:57.680 Maka fitz Patrick on the season now. While he returned 0:04:57.680 --> 0:04:59.480 to fumble in this past game against the Rams forty 0:04:59.480 --> 0:05:02.279 three yards for touchdown, the second quarter also had a 0:05:02.279 --> 0:05:05.840 game ceiling pick. Six takeaways for Fitzpatrick five picks, one 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:09.159 fumble recovery in seven games with the Steelers. Mike Lamboard, 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:11.400 we start with you. Anything on this game for you? Yeah, 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:12.919 I actually like this game quite a big You know, 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:14.719 you know a lot about our model. We built it 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:16.960 three years ago, starting kind of with player grades from 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:19.640 the bottom up and arriving at unit grades to assess 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:22.680 the components of each team, and we put an overweighting. 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:24.840 At the time, nobody was really talking about offensive and 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.120 defensive line three or four years ago. Now it's a 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:28.839 little bit more common in the media, but it's all 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:32.520 about skill positions. So we overweighted the offensive and defensive line, 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:34.280 and this is kind of a banner game for that. 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:38.440 Cleveland has some really popular guy as off quarterbacks skill positions. 0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:41.800 Pittsburgh has no name skill positions, but pretty high quality 0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:45.240 offensive and defensive line. So our model um predictably likes 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:47.919 Pittsburgh in this spot. Favored by about a point, a 0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:49.920 little bit over a point, So that's gonna be a 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:52.280 play for me. Gil, Pittsburgh Steelers, would you say that's 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:54.440 one of your best bets to Mike. I'm throwing it 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:56.680 in there, Gil, I'm throwing it in there. Okay, Pittsburgh, 0:05:57.040 --> 0:06:01.279 Mike all over at Mike Lamboard, Mike palm any thing tonight. Yeah, 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:04.479 Let's let's get a good show on here, Todd and 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:07.039 have some disagreement early. I'm gonna give you a best bet. 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:09.400 On the other side, I'm gonna lay the three with Cleveland. 0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:13.240 Pittsburgh's padded all these wins, all at home, and Prissette 0:06:13.279 --> 0:06:16.800 doesn't get hurt. They lose to the Colts. Miami dominated 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:18.440 them in the first half of the game before that 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:22.479 inexplicable uh Let's eight that changed that whole game. McGoff 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:26.920 incomplete pass is ruled a fumble that changed that game. Um, 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:29.400 the Rudolph hasn't played a road game in weeks and 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:31.799 and Hayden is Gempi. I like the Browns in this spot. 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:34.279 I compared to them playing Buffalo. This is like the 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:37.600 same game all over again. To me, they're playing quarterback 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:39.719 that won't beat you through the air against a decent 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:43.760 defensive team. Cleveland dominated that game between the tens. I mean, 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:45.840 they've got to improve in the Red zoner or they're 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:48.000 they're in big trouble, but they still got a shot. 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:49.719 Look at their schedule the rest of the way out. 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:52.279 It starts with beating Pittsburgh tonight on a three with 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:55.160 the Browns. Yeah, let's not forget the Browns scored just 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:58.640 three points in that game against the Bills despite twelve 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:01.680 plays inside Buffal Those three yard line. Bills in fact 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:04.240 stop the Browns on eight straight plays at the one, 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:06.880 the equivalent of two goal line stands in the first quarter. 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:10.160 So that game should have been much worse than the 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:13.000 final score indicated. Todd, Is that the best bet for you, Mike? 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:16.640 By the way, Yes, it is. Wow, best bets on Thursday, Todd, 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:19.280 This is not the best bet for me, but Unfortunately, 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:22.800 I'm going to agree with the evil Mike Bomb, and 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:26.840 I'm going to agree with him because my model shows 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:32.440 that the Pittsburgh Steelers. I designed my model by sitting 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:36.120 in a smokey room and watching every effing game possible 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:38.880 to watch. And that's a different type of model that 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:42.320 so far AI hasn't figured out. But I will say this, 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:45.800 the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a huge win against 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:49.640 the Rams. Lucky lucky lucky. I mean, you're winning games 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:52.400 without an offense. Basically, the defense is playing great. Don't 0:07:52.440 --> 0:07:55.280 get me wrong, the defense is playing great. The one 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:57.360 good thing that the Browns have for them, I mean 0:07:57.400 --> 0:07:59.680 the the Steelers have going for them as Kitchens as 0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:02.840 the code to the Browns. Other than that, the Steelers 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:04.720 are winning with smoke and mirrors and it was all 0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:07.400 at home. Like Mike just said, Mason Rudolf has not 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:09.680 been on the road yet except that forty Niners game 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:12.360 where he looked like a you know, a deer in headlights. 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:15.480 So I'd be very nervous taking a Pittsburgh team that 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:19.600 I think has been very lucky and playing over their head. Cleveland. 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:23.080 I don't want them either because of Kitchens. But I 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:26.800 would have to lean with with Cleveland. I'm sorry to say, yeah, 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:29.880 I'm Mike Lambourne. I I apologize for the for the 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:32.120 rude welcome or wasn't planning on this happening, but you know, 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:34.839 I'm I'm on the Browns two and it is the 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:36.840 best bet for me. I'm making it a best bet. 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:39.439 You know that play in that game, in that Pittsburgh 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:42.080 Rams game, to the fumble that was called on Jared 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:46.320 Golf that Fitzpatrick. It was not a fumble. It was 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:49.760 not a fumble, and it drives me crazy. By the way, 0:08:49.800 --> 0:08:51.200 I don't think the announcer has made enough of it. 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:53.640 It was second second quarter of that game. It was 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:57.319 third and seven at the Rams forty one yard line 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:00.079 left and a half. I believe the score was in 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:02.440 the seven at the time, and that's when the whole 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:06.120 game changed. I'm going Cleveland in this ballgame. I do 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:08.480 get it that I'm putting a best bet on Freddie Kitchens, 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:11.480 but damn it, call me crazy, I'm gonna do it. 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:14.200 Freddie Kitchens and the Browns are my best bet number. 0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:16.360 By the way, that was one of the most curious 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:19.640 fumble calls that I've seen, because usually if there's even 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:22.920 a hint of the hand moving forward, even a little 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:27.240 teeny teeny weeny weeny hint of the hand going forward, 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:30.360 they call it incomplete. And shockingly they didn't you know, 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:32.480 you know, there were there were other similar plays in 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:35.520 football that day that we're just like that, that we're 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:37.760 called the other way. But I think we've gotten to 0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:40.080 the point with NFL officiate and we've we've all talked 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:43.200 about it until we're blew in the face all these calls, 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:47.600 the layers of them, challenges and non challenges, and we've 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:50.040 talked about that. I think the layer we haven't talked 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:52.720 about is now we've gotten to the point that everything 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:54.920 is so confusing that when you talk about these games 0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:56.839 on Monday. So when I went into a number do 0:09:56.920 --> 0:09:59.240 a numbers game on Monday morning and I was outraged 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:01.959 about that play producing number five Jeff Parlay, he said 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:03.760 to me, he goes, I think you're wrong about it. 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:05.720 I think it was a fumble because it was open hand. 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:07.920 And I'm like, wait a minute. Now, you're so confused 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:11.160 that the rules like they've they've get up so much 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:13.480 that we don't even know what the rules are, Like 0:10:13.600 --> 0:10:16.000 you think it was a fumble. I say, you could 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:18.680 almost shoot someone in Fifth Avenue and maybe get away 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:23.560 with maybe I lost my earphone. Excuse me? Alright, alright, Gil, 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:27.160 it's a beat. Then, Pittsburgh Cleveland, Momo Fucho dinner dinner bet, 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:29.240 not just the lunch menu. What's that now? Sing in 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:32.440 it's a bet. Pittsburgh Cleveland. You and I Momo Fuco 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:35.040 dinner bet, not just the lunch man dinner. You got it. 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:38.320 I'm giving you three dinner bet. Me and Michael Lamber 0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:41.360 all right, let's do our first best bets then, Uh, 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:43.760 Michael's already got his Mike Landborn. That is, he is 0:10:43.800 --> 0:10:47.640 on Pittsburgh, Mike, Mike Palm and I both on Cleveland 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:49.960 as our first best bet. Todd, what is your first 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:57.679 best bet? My first best bet is then Jay Judge 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:03.960 Judge Jet. That's right, your New York Sam Mono Jets. 0:11:04.480 --> 0:11:08.560 And here's why I like them. One word Haskins. Haskins 0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:10.920 is not ready to be a quarterback. Let's all be honest. 0:11:10.920 --> 0:11:13.160 If this was case Keenum, I don't want any part 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:16.400 of it. But because it's Clem Haskins, I know that's 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:18.880 on his first name, but I called him clem Clem. 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:23.040 Haskins is not ready to be a quarterback. So I 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:25.200 am gonna go with the Jets. If it was Keenam, 0:11:25.200 --> 0:11:28.199 I'd laid off. But because it's Haskins, give me the Jets. 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:31.680 I know the Jets stink. The Washington Redskins with Haskins 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:34.559 stink worse. Give me the Jets. Yeah. I can't argue 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:36.599 with it, and I I don't think it requires any more explanation. 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.520 Jets held the Giants the twenty three yards rushing last week. 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:43.679 Twenty of those twenty three from Daniel Jones himself. Say, 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:48.640 Kwan Barkley thirteen carries one yard. Take away the Redskins 0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:51.080 running game with Darius Guys and Adrian Peterson. And you 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:55.240 put the game into Dwayne Haskins hands. Oh, Jets, Todd's 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:57.760 first best bed, Oh Am, I getting bus one or 0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:01.000 one and a half on that. You are getting plus 0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:05.239 one and a half, sir, beautiful. That is the consensus. 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:08.600 Mike Palm later saying that I'm trying to chance him 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:10.920 out of points. You know how he loves to do 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:12.559 you know how he loves to do that routine with 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:20.120 Michael Lamborn pick number two sore. So you know We've 0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:23.400 been dabbling with live betting in game wagers for a 0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:25.600 couple of years now, this is really the first year 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:28.760 that we're going almost exclusively to in game wagering for 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:30.760 our plays. So we have the model to kind of 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:33.520 guide what we're looking for ahead of time in these 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:36.960 games based on the components of each team, and we 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.840 kind of know that the pregame spreads are pretty tight. 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:41.960 You can still find some edges, but I think in 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.320 game is a really good opportunity. Now. There's just so 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:47.559 many different time and state and game score situations that 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:49.839 can pop up. And just if you look at a 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.079 few different books while you're watching the game and the 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:55.960 differences that they have UM for that in game spread 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:58.920 and total during different times of that game, it's kind 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:00.559 of evidence that there is a pretty good edge to 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:03.480 be had in this market. So, um, all of our members, 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:06.680 all of our subscribers looking at pregame plays or sorry, 0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.560 in game plays right now. UM, And I've got my 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:13.720 eye on the Buffalo Miami game. This is one where 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:16.960 if Buffalo takes the lead, our model says that that 0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:21.760 the teams are constructed two, we could see a slowdown 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:24.120 in scoring in that situation if Buffalo takes a lead 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:26.520 going up against that Miami passing offense, which we have 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:30.360 graded at four team percent below average. Blow an average 0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:33.360 passing offense up against a good Buffalo pass defense. And 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.199 then also Buffalo's ability to run the ball, perhaps run 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:39.800 the ball, run some clock out against that Miami poor 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:42.640 run defense at fourteen percent below average. So I'll be 0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:44.800 looking at if Buffalo takes a lead in that game, 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:47.360 and there's a couple of uppard uh different things that 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:50.480 we look at in that situation. But if Buffalo takes 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.559 a lead, uh maybe let's say seven to ten points, 0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:57.000 gonna look for the in game under in that situation. Okay, 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.439 so a in game bet as a best But I 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:02.040 don't know if we'll but wait, we we we Here's 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:04.440 the thing. First of all, Mr Longboard is preaching to 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:09.160 the choir with lboard. We love what is it? It's landboard. Okay, 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:12.280 I'm sorry. Mr Lamborn is preaching to the choir because 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:14.439 we it sounds like you just took that right off 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.160 a numbers game. We love the end game betting, We 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:20.080 love it, and we agree with you a thousand percent 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:24.280 on that, Mike Um. But here on on this megapod, Gil, 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:26.800 we have to pick three games with no end game 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.680 because it's prett you just want to take the under 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:31.800 then in that game, Mike, I'll just go ahead and 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:34.640 do that. Yep. Okay, okay, that was an easy sell. 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:37.840 Uh the under? H what do we have for the under? 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.840 Their consensus time? What are you saying? The one that 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:43.640 the under in the Buffalo Miami game? But understanding what 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:50.600 Mike is saying, looking for one? Yes? Okay. By the way, 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:52.560 I mean I could give you the three team ten 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.400 point teaser too, but unfortunately we can't do this on 0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:58.520 this particular outlet, Mike, but I couldn't agree with it. 0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:00.360 By the way, when he when he started and saying 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:02.480 that stuff, Gil, I was like, Wow, this guy knows 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.840 his crap. Todd is a stickler for the rules. Mike. 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:09.360 I apologize for that. But but Mike, you're so you're 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:11.680 so right about how the lines are different at different 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.680 end game books and how the end game is just 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:16.760 so much better. I never I almost never make a 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:20.440 pre flu bet, and we're all about the live wagering, 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:24.960 Like Mike, palm your number two. I agree with Todd 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:28.440 wishnev on the Jets play plus one, but I'm not 0:15:28.480 --> 0:15:30.680 going to copy that play Instead, I'm gonna take the 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:34.000 under in that game. Thirty eight and a half is 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:36.040 what I'm seeing, Todd. What what are you gonna give 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:40.200 it to me at thirty six? Uh? Because you're a 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.840 nice guy? Thirty six and a half? No, seriously, under 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:46.760 thirty eight and a half, Gill, Is that what you have, sir? Yes? Yeah, 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:51.280 I'm gonna combine the fact of Haskins and his limited 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.760 ability to perform in the National Football League or to 0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:58.479 have any part of the playbook, combined with Bill Callahan's 0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:01.000 desire to end up game and under two hours at 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:06.560 thirty five minutes and and it's not porous Washington defense 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.560 point against the inconsistent Sam Donald. I just don't think 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:12.440 there'll be a lot of points. I agree with Todd. 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:14.720 I'd take anything if the Jets are getting points, and 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:16.880 I will, but that's not the best bet. The best 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:18.960 bet is the under here, all right, I'm going to 0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:22.240 uh Michael Lamborne's game, Uh, the game that he has 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:24.560 the under in, and I'm just taking the Miami Dolphins. 0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:26.760 This is literally the only thing I get right every 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:29.520 single week in the National Football League is just taking 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.440 the Dolphins. I think the market is, you know, chronically 0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:35.320 underrating them, and I think they've done it here again 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:38.480 against the Bills. They're at home, the Dolphins are You're 0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:41.320 giving me six points, which is what the consensus is. 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:42.960 I believe right now, Todd, do you tell me if 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:48.440 I'm wrong? I believe six points is yeah. And again, 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:53.640 why is Josh Allen favored by that many points on 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:56.440 the road. I don't have an explanation for it. Last week, 0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.680 Uh no touchdown passes from Josh Allen again, one pick 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:01.440 he was zack once he was twenty two or one 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:03.440 for two six six, but he did his damage with 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:05.680 his leg six carries, twenty eight yards. I just don't 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:08.480 think it's sustainable in the National Football League. Sure could 0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:11.440 the Bills win, absolutely, but giving six or getting six 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:15.000 for the Dolphins, I'll take it in six points? Again, 0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:17.719 what is the justification for this? I guessed lower than 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:19.560 I believe. I guess three and a half on guessing 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:21.160 lines three and a half or four and a half, 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.679 something like that. Give me value, I'll take it. Miami 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:27.200 Dolphins pick number two. Hey, Gil, they played before the 0:17:27.320 --> 0:17:29.399 score was a ten point win by Buffalo, but it 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:32.639 was totally misleading because Miami was up four nine with 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:35.160 the ball in the two yard line to go up nine, 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:39.000 so I more fuel for the fodder. And that was 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:42.760 on the road. Now you're going into that incredibly difficult 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:45.800 home field advantage by Miami. No, I'm just kidding about that, 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:48.399 but seriously, but seriously, that's just more fuel for the 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:51.040 fodder for you. Here's who I would like to take. 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:53.760 I am going to go back to the well with 0:17:53.920 --> 0:17:57.240 the tried and true of every single week in the 0:17:57.359 --> 0:17:59.880 National Football League, and that I've been pounding the drum 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:02.520 on Mega Pod. I impounding the drums on the numbers game. 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:05.200 Mike is moving his head back and forth, bobbing it. 0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:08.840 But I will say this, the Tampa Bay Buccaneer over 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:12.160 is the way to go, baby, because they go over 0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:14.680 every week. Why do they go over every week? Because 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:18.119 they're not interested in defense. They have no interest in 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:22.960 playing defense. They also have explosive offense with Michael Evans 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:26.200 catching every ball out of the sky. They also have 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:29.960 the possibility for lots of volatility with Mr Jamis can 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:32.120 fumble on every play, he can give you a pick 0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:35.080 six on every play. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are an 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:38.920 over lover's dream. The first two time these times these 0:18:39.000 --> 0:18:43.760 teams played in New Orleans, it was that equals fifty five, 0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:47.119 I believe. And now it's only at forty nine and 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:50.159 a half. Now, granted, I could get screwed here if 0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:53.600 New Orleans plays a great game on defense and somehow 0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:56.200 it goes under because they win thirty four to ten 0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:59.840 or something that could happen. But you know what prove 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.920 to me? First, Tampa Bay goes over every week. You're 0:19:02.960 --> 0:19:05.080 getting it for what forty nine and a half or fifty? 0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:07.440 What do you have, gil, I have it at do 0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:12.200 do do do Do Do do do do fifty? Okay, 0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:15.040 so give it to me over fifty and I get 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:19.880 there thirty four seventeen or some such score that adds 0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:22.080 up to over fifty. Thank you. We could literally play 0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:24.840 back the me picking Miami. You taking a Tampa Bay 0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:27.359 over on a loop every week on this show, and 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:31.040 why they both right? Why not? Why make it more difficult? 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:35.560 Same thing? Jamis thirty forty eight last week, three fifty 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:40.800 eight yards, one touchdown, two picks, sacked four times, but 0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:43.399 then you know he drove ninety two yards for the 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:47.760 winning touchdown after Jamal Dean redeemed himself from a terrible 0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:50.320 performance the previous week. He allowed several big plays during 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:54.240 a the overtime lost the Seattle fort four uh ending 0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:57.760 Kyler Murray's rookie streak of two d eleven consecutive past 0:19:57.760 --> 0:19:59.879 attempts with a pick without a pick, I should say 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:03.359 he picks it off and then Jamison the Bucks matriculate 0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:07.439 and beat the Cardinals seven, overcoming lead. And you're right 0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.600 about Mike Evans four of eighty two, just every week 0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:14.800 getting the statue going. But Jamis Winston his interceptions in 0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:18.560 that game, thirteen turnovers now in the past four games 0:20:19.119 --> 0:20:21.480 for Jamis, So yeah, you'll get points. You'll get set 0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:22.960 up for points on the other side of the field 0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:25.160 every time with Jamis, that's for sure. But by the way, 0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:26.879 there was also a touchdown that should have been a 0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:29.800 touchdown there wasn't one. When Arizona was inside the ten 0:20:29.880 --> 0:20:32.000 yard line and fourth and one. They threw it to 0:20:32.080 --> 0:20:34.280 a wide open tight end who could have just walked 0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:36.159 into the end zone and he dropped the ball, so 0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:38.399 it could have been even more points. Michael Lambor and 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:40.560