WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2023 Q2 MLB Derivative Stats Show 0:00:03.520 --> 0:00:11.560 Check it down, then no down. Then Wednesday morning, June 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:13.840 twenty eighth, twenty twenty three, it is the Beating the 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:18.639 Book podcast mlb Q two derivative show all from a 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:23.880 betting perspective. It's Gil Alexander. This is the longest running 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:28.080 thing that I believe we have done on this podcast 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:30.680 and on the Betting Dork podcast before that. The Megapod 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:32.800 might have something to say about that. But if it's 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:36.320 not the Megapod, it is this where Mark Borchard base 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:41.720 Winner joins me to do quarterly derivatives betting outlooks in 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:45.080 Major League Baseball. Mark joins us now from an undisclosed 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:48.199 location somewhere in the Desert base Winter podcast basewinter dot 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:50.680 com at base Winter on Twitter. How you doing, Mark, 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:52.760 I'm doing good. 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:55.200 And I think that I will hold to this that 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:57.800 I was your first guest on your podcast. You were, 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:00.520 and it's it, and it's an honor, it really is. 0:01:00.720 --> 0:01:03.040 You've done so good and I call you the voice 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:05.399 of sports betting, and I know sometimes I say it 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.080 tongue in cheek, but I really mean it because I 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:10.160 think you are the voice of sports betting and you've 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:13.360 done such a good job and not just analyzing games 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:15.280 on a daily basis and doing a daily show, but 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:19.960 being an ambassador for sports betting since and it's gone 0:01:19.959 --> 0:01:21.240 a long way since we started. 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:22.840 I mean, it makes you feel a little bit old 0:01:22.959 --> 0:01:23.680 in a way. 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:27.640 But dude, this is Yeah. We met in a forum 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:33.600 and we were scolded for contacting outside of the forum 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:36.440 or something like that. But I knew. I knew immediately. 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:38.240 I was like, oh, this is my kind of guy 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:41.760 nerd fest in baseball. I remember it was. 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:44.560 Great, and I was great, and I'll never forget the 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:48.880 metrics that we made up watching spring training Baseball Classic. 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:51.640 Yes we are, we are. We're complete dorks. We would 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:53.800 go to spring training together in Arizona. We would make 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:56.200 up metrics in the stands because something's wrong with us. 0:01:56.400 --> 0:01:58.840 Do you remember the greatest metric we made up? Though? 0:01:58.840 --> 0:01:59.960 We should probably bring this up. 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:04.720 Oh, I think it was the long leash, Yes, cool 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:07.960 M L cool am. And I really think that I 0:02:08.000 --> 0:02:10.040 can make that into a metric now because I think 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:11.160 about the other day Gil. 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:14.320 It had to do with managers and their quick or 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:18.799 slow hooks on pitchers. So it was long leash cool manager. Right. 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:20.960 We did an LL cool M or something like that 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:22.919 really hasn't caught on quite yet, but. 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:25.040 We got to work up well, I I haven't developed 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:27.400 it yet, but it actually makes sense because some of 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:29.920 these guys, you know, the way they balance a bullpen, 0:02:29.960 --> 0:02:32.679 and it really makes a difference towards it towards a 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:34.800 later part of those games. But that that's in development 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:36.760 along with the G six model that I'm going to 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:38.400 make for you with six inputs. 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:41.880 Oh nice, I like it. Mark All was struggling with 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:44.680 putting more Giants magic into his model. One day he 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:47.080 will get it perfected. As the Giants win their tenth 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:50.000 straight road game last night. Giants two and a half 0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:53.560 out of the NL West. For those who are unfamiliar 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:57.400 with what we do here, so this is essentially so 0:02:57.560 --> 0:02:59.799 we're essentially at the halfway point of the Major League 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:02.840 based A couple teams have gotten to the halfway point. 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:05.280 The other twenty eight are about to. They're just a 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:08.160 game or two shy. And so what we do every 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:11.480 quarter roughly forty eighty one, one hundred and twenty games, 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:13.880 is we go back and we look at a bunch 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:17.600 of betting stats, both from a you know, very widely 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:22.360 available money line and run line perspective on teams starting pitchers, 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:24.119 who would have made you the most money, who would 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.760 have cost you the most. We talk about umpires, who 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:30.080 are the most reliable over umpires, the most reliable under umpires. 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:33.919 Mark is invaluable to that because he actually has historical 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:36.960 umpire data to corroborate if this is just a uh, 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:38.960 you know, sort of flash in the pan thing for 0:03:39.040 --> 0:03:41.200 half a season, or if this is actually consistent with 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:42.920 how these umpires have been. And then it gets a 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:46.400 little more proprietary. We do first five inning stats, and 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:49.960 we do first inning stats for pitchers, and the whole 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:54.200 exercise is really designed to come up with, Okay, is 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:56.720 this just something that we've you know, just happened for 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:58.680 half a season and it's more narrative and fun to 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:03.120 talk about, or is it legit predictive of what's to come? 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:05.440 And so will it help us, you know, it will 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:09.640 help inform baseball bets, both day to day and long 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:12.440 term into the future. And we've we've had a ball 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:15.040 doing this for so many years. And Mark, let's start 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:19.359 at the very top. Which is the biggest money line 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:23.480 winners in terms of baseball clubs for betters this season? 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:25.640 And who do you have per your numbers? I will 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.880 rely on Covers for these Covers dot Com. Who do 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:32.200 you have as your top three baseball teams? That again 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:35.320 the Bizarro exercise. Let's say you bet on this team 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:37.480 every single game thus far this season when they were 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:39.640 a favorite. Let's say you bet on them every single 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:41.640 game when they were an underdog. So it is bizarro. 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:44.440 No one actually does this this way, but if you did, 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:48.000 this would be the biggest grossers for betters. 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:52.799 Who do you have, Mark, I've got Baltimore, Arizona and 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:54.560 Myami in that order. 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:58.599 Yeah, and Covers has Arizona now today just a tick 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:02.080 above Baltimore. Both would have earned you more than fourteen units. 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:05.120 Again bizarro exercise, betting them every single day, whether they're 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:08.120 a favorite or an underdog. They have Cincinnati third and 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:11.599 Miami fourth. By the way, the Giants would be fifth. 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:13.839 Those are the five teams that would have earned you 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:17.960 double digit units this season. And that's you and I 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:19.479 talked about this when we did this on a numbers 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:24.240 game yesterday on Visen. Usually we have a surprise. These 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:29.040 are like textbook five overachieving teams, right, you. 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:32.280 Was saying, the only one that to me is kind 0:05:32.279 --> 0:05:34.039 of in that mix in the top ten, and I 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:36.120 think I have them like sixth or seventh or the 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:39.559 Braves because you're just laying so much sauce with that team, 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.200 you would think that that would get you, but they've 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:43.159 just been so good. 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:46.040 That team is so some gil Wow that the. 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:50.440 Hitting and the releae pitching's good, but the lineup is 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:51.560 amazing and. 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:53.760 A Kunya at the top is just amazing. But yes, 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:57.520 to Mark's point, texas another overachiever. Overachiever based on what 0:05:57.560 --> 0:05:59.880 their pre flop consensus season win total was at six. 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:02.920 But yes, then it is Atlanta and Tampa Bay. And 0:06:03.120 --> 0:06:06.000 think about what Mark just said, which is those teams 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:08.640 are laying wood more often than not. But they're so 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:11.360 good or have been so good that even if you 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.919 bet them, you know, just brain dead wise every single game, 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:17.760 you would still be, you know, in the money with 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.680 both of those teams. Not as sexy as the other 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:23.040 ones we mentioned, but still in the money. And really, 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:25.640 when it gets down to it, it's not like half 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:28.320 the teams put you in the money. It's a little 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:30.400 less than half that would actually have you if you 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:32.800 blindly bet them every day. At the bottom, it's sort 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:34.520 of the opposite of we just what we just talked 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:38.240 about with Atlanta and Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:42.960 have been so bad that even though they're only you know, dogs, 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:46.480 each and every single night, seemingly and really not even 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:50.640 seemingly they are, they're the biggest hemorrhagers for better. So 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:52.839 if you had bet Kansas City or Oakland every single 0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:54.720 game this year on the money line, and by the way, 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:56.560 if you're doing that, you're not doing this. Let me 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:58.719 just point that out, you're not doing it right. But 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:01.479 Kansas City would have you down almost twenty almost twenty 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:04.040 four and a half units. In Oakland would be down 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:12.360 twenty two units. Goodness, man, Mets, Cardinals, Padres after that, 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:16.760 those come into the sort of way underachieving based on 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:19.720 expectation similar to what you have. 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:25.080 Well, yeah, I've got Cardinals' worst, Royals, A's and Mets 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:28.680 in that order, and the Cardinals are just really I mean, 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:30.680 I'm missed with the Cardinals. I thought that they'd be 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:33.640 right at the top. And I think that even like 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.480 if you were to come to me and say, if 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:39.680 you look at their their x FIP minus a year 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:43.000 to date, it's ninety nine which I would have taken 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:45.200 that like as you know, collectively as a team, I'd 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:46.760 have been like, yeah, okay, well they're average pitching, but 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:49.960 they can really bash and they haven't been able to 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:53.720 put the numbers up that I projected, although there's seven 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:57.640 percent better than average. So what's interesting is they're fielding. 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:00.600 They've they've twenty six runs that they have not dave, 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:05.360 so they've they've allowed extra runs, you know, defensive run saved, 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:08.400 and you would consider them a good defensive team. But 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:12.440 that Cardinals team just perplexes me. Gil it always for 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:14.880 the last three years I was I was bearished on 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:16.400 them when they were good. Now I'm ballish on them 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:18.160 when they're bad. That's not a good thing here. 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:20.160 And here's the question. So of the ones that we 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:22.360 mentioned on the top and we once mentioned on the bottom, 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:25.920 which I mean, how many of those are do you 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:28.400 think our outliers and won't be sustainable? Because to me, 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.920 like I really feel like Arizona, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Miami 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:35.320 and San Francisco and Texas are actually good baseball teams. 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:37.560 But which which of the good do you think? Yeah, 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:40.240 I don't see it continuing. Which of the bad on 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:42.040 the other hand, because you've said it with Oakland, you 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:43.320 actually think they'll be better. 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:46.200 Yeah, I think Oakland will be better. 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:49.120 I think Miami, you know, it's it's an interesting team 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:52.840 because you look at them profit wise straight up and 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:55.560 they're you know, I have a twelve point six units, 0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:58.080 but if you look at them versus the run line, 0:08:58.880 --> 0:09:02.720 they're they're not as good. So that means that, in fact, 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:04.959 I think I'm not showing a negative number for them, 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:06.920 Gill on the run line, So that means that they're 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:08.560 they're getting a lot of luck in the. 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:11.280 One run games. 0:09:11.360 --> 0:09:14.760 And so I think that, you know, I know Jason 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:17.680 was really down on Miami earlier, and my numbers for 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:20.520 their offense were low on them too, So I think 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:23.040 that that's the team maybe that's going to slide, is 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:24.559 that Miami team Gill. 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:26.520 Okay, and Oakland would be the answer to the bottom 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:28.400 where you'd be like, yeah, they'll be better. Like you're 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:31.640 adjusted season, your adjusted season win total is higher than 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:33.280 their current adjusted season win total. 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:36.480 Yeah, I've got them. Let's see, let's see I can 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:38.000 pull that, look at that real fast. 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:43.120 Yeah, they were yesterday forty eight point five wins over 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:46.120 under at Caesars. So that's their season win total, and 0:09:46.160 --> 0:09:48.240 I've got them at fifty four point four. 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:53.160 So yeah, all right, so don't yeah, yeah, don't necessarily 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:55.000 fade them as rampantly as you might think. By the way, 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:57.280 if we broke down the money line numbers into home roads, 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.360 Arizona is actually the number one away team on the 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:02.240 money line. If you had bet them every single game 0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:05.600 favorite or dog on the road, they'd have you up 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:08.920 almost twelve units. Baltimore also would be number two on 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:10.640 the road. They'd have you up over ten units. So 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:12.840 most of the units that the number one and two 0:10:12.880 --> 0:10:15.079 overall money line teams have gotten you have been as 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:18.640 road teams. Cincinnati also third best on the road, so 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:21.199 it's consistent. So who is the best at home? It's 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:24.840 actually Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay at home, they'd have you 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:27.080 up over ten units, almost ten and a half. They're 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:29.360 actually a losing proposition if you had bet them every 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:31.520 single game on the road, and as far as the 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:35.080 oh By the way, one other weird outlier, the biggest 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:38.240 difference between a home and road split in terms of 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:42.040 money line Washington, the Nationals would have you down almost 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:45.480 nine units betting them blindly at home and up almost 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:47.080 eleven units on the road. 0:10:48.000 --> 0:10:50.120 That's interesting, That is interesting. 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:53.360 Yeah, I think I've only played the Nationals once this year. 0:10:53.440 --> 0:10:54.840 That was two nights ago and they lost. 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:57.080 I was gonna say I haven't played them barely at all, 0:10:57.120 --> 0:11:00.520 if at all, in terms of that. Yeah, go ahead, 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:00.920 I'm sorry. 0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:03.920 It's hard to get a I mean to get a 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:06.920 good position on them, and that the starting pitching is 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:10.760 is worst in baseball for me, and so it starts there, 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:13.040 and so that's why I haven't really been able to 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:14.880 back them at all this year. 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:17.200 Yeah, Mets are the worst on the road, by the way. 0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:19.080 They're the third worst overall the money line, but they're 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.920 the worst on the road. Most of their loss is 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:26.280 away from city Field Oakland. Oh no, pardon me, Kansas 0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:30.479 City by far the worst team at home. Almost eighteen 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:34.200 of their twenty five units have been lost as a 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:36.679 home team. By the way run line best run line team. Now, 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:38.600 this is, of course, as a favorite, you're a one 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:40.719 and a half run favorite. As a dog, you're a 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:44.000 plus one and a half run proposition. So when you're winning, 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:46.520 your winning big. When you're losing, sometimes if you can 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.080 keep it within you know to a one score game, 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:52.559 you become the best run line team in all of baseball, 0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:54.800 or you're just crushing teams on a nightly basis. The 0:11:54.920 --> 0:11:57.640 number one run line team a de facto power ranking, 0:11:57.679 --> 0:11:59.160 if you will, mark, who do you have as the 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:02.040 number one run line team? 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:04.920 Are you talking about at home? Are you talking about overall? 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:07.040 We're not gonna do splits on run line? Just overall? 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:10.760 Okay, overall run line team. I have Baltimore. 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:16.199 Yeah, Baltimore just just nipping Cincinnati. Both Baltimore and Cincinnati 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:18.959 the best run line teams in baseball according to covers 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:21.839 over eighteen units strong, and Arizona would be third. So 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:24.800 it's really the usual. Oh no, pardon me, Texas would 0:12:24.800 --> 0:12:28.680 actually be third. Arizona would be fourth in terms of 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:29.520 covers numbers. 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:33.680 I'm sure this to know where the Yankees fall in 0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:34.439 for you on. 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:37.959 That, the Yankees would be excellent. Question In terms of 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:42.960 the run line, they're actually the seventh best in. 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:45.240 That wild I'm looking at the thing, going, well, Yankees 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:46.400 are there, So that's a weird one. 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:48.480 So I guess when they win, they crush or they 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:50.120 lose a lot of I mean, I don't I can't 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:52.840 remember what their one run record is off hand, but 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.439 they you'd be up six point five units on the 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:57.040 Yankees betting them on the run line. By the way, 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:59.719 the Nationals would be eighth on the run line at 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.000 five point five units to the positive. So there is 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:04.600 a few surprises in that regard. 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:07.640 And by the way, that Yankee's surprising to me. 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.120 The worst on the run line. Again, the Royals, you'd 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:13.360 be down twenty nine units betting them, so like when 0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:15.480 they lose, they don't even keep it close. And again, 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:17.079 if you're betting the Royals on the run line every 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:19.280 single day, you're doing this all wrong. But anyway, that's 0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:21.679 that's just an interesting sort of overview of the of 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.679 that in terms of starting pitchers. Now this has to 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:27.520 do with, you know, when these guys take the hill, 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:32.120 what is their team's ultimate win loss record? Now, again, 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:34.760 is this sustainable? Is this predictive in anyway? You be 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:38.800 the judge. I'll get Mark's opinions. Dean Kramer of the Orioles, 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:40.839 the Oriols are eleven and five when he takes the 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:43.760 hill this year, Boyd of the Tigers, the Tigers are 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:47.240 nine and six when he takes the hill. Henry of Arizona, 0:13:47.320 --> 0:13:50.319 Tommy Henry, they're nine and two are the Diamondbacks when 0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:53.120 he takes the hill. Those are the three most profitable 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:55.680 pitchers in all of baseball. Like Spencer Strider, who I 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:58.360 think should be the NLSI Young Award winner at this point. 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:02.319 Others would disagree. By contrast, he's sixth, right, even though 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:05.240 the Braves are fourteen and two when he takes the hill. 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:06.719 But in terms of money, because remember a lot of 0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:08.960 these guys that I just mentioned, Kramer, Boyd, and Henry, 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.360 when their teams Baltimore, Detroit and Arizona are playing, they're 0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:15.240 getting plus money. So from a money perspective, they're one, 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:17.920 two three. Are any of those three guys sustainable on 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:18.360 this do you thing? 0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:20.600 I don't think so. 0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:24.320 I mean, I said yesterday, you know Kramer was good 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:27.000 on Seinfeld, but I don't really see him as a 0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:31.120 as a high level, a high level major league pitcher, 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:35.280 neither Henry. I think that, you know, the Diamondbacks are 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:36.720 going to have to get an extra pitcher. I think 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:41.240 to be competitive in the playoffs. I don't think they 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:44.840 can just do it with Gallon and yeah, Kelly. 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:47.400 Bottom line, by the way, the bottom of that starting pitcher. 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:49.760 Money wise, there's one hundred and eighty four starting pitchers 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:52.240 that qualified. No surprise, Jordan Lyles of the Royals. The 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:54.680 Royals just won their first game with him as a starter, 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:57.960 so they're now one in fifteen. He'd have cost you 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:00.840 thirteen units, almost thirteen units if you had bet Jordan 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:04.720 Lyles games for the Royals blindly. And again, God help 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.720 you if you are. Schmidt of the Yankees is second 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:10.680 worst nine units to the in the red if you 0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:12.440 had bet him blindly, because the Yankees are four and 0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:14.560 twelve with him on the hill. And then some familiar 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:19.480 names Zach Grink, Jamison tye On of the Cubs, and 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:22.720 Jordan Montgomery three four five by the way, Blake Snell 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.960 seventh of the Padres, and he's pitching great. They're also 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:29.760 on the worst list. Blake Snell is the most unsustainable 0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:31.800 of that. In other words, he's going to completely reverse. 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:35.040 You would say, I think, so, you know, I like 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:37.640 Montgomery and tie On, I having them better than an 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:41.680 average pitcher. So I think that, you know, there might 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:46.560 be some some one run stuff in there too for Montgomery, 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:49.280 and but I think that that ty On and Montgomery 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:51.440 are better than average major league pittures. 0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:51.640 Gil. 0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:54.120 Okay, let's get to the umpires because this is this 0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:56.280 is great to have you on with this. So again 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.560 I'm getting these from covers dot com. Mark has his 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:01.640 own proprietary numbers. So these are umpires. And again you 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:04.320 can see umpire assignments at a site like stat fox. 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:08.000 What was the Twitter handle that you recommend for umpire listings. 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:10.640 It's at umpire crew. 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:14.480 At umpire crewe. Umpire crew is the Twitter handle they 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:16.880 have umpire assignments. And as you were saying, you can 0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:20.960 find those assignments there or you figure out just who's 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:22.800 who's the homeplate umpire one night and then you just 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:24.040 do the rotation of the crew. 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:29.040 Yeah, that's that's for for any game that's like second, third, 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:30.960 or for any game other than the first game of 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:34.400 the series, you just the first base umpire. Then the 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:36.880 next night that you know, let's say tonight, the first 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:39.960 base umpire, and then tomorrow he'll be the home plate umpire, 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:43.080 So it rotates. I guess that would be counter No, 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:46.280 that'd be clockwise if you looked at the diamond, So 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:48.240 first base goes to home plate next day. 0:16:48.480 --> 0:16:52.680 Okay, so the most reliable over umpires thus far in 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:57.120 Major League Baseball this season. Nate Tomlinson eight of the 0:16:57.280 --> 0:16:59.760 nine games least, according to covers, eight of the nine 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:02.080 game that he's been behind home plate have gone over. 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:06.080 Mike Esterbrook ten of thirteen. I believe it says here, 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:11.119 Jordan Baker eight of eleven, Alfonso Marquez nine of twelve 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:14.919 to the over, and Chad Witson seven of twelve to 0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:17.720 the over. Those are the most reliable over umpires in 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:19.440 all the baseball thus far this year. So in other words, 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:22.560 maybe their strike zone is the size of a thimble 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:25.640 and the guys are just able to hack away or 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:28.520 take their base. Do any of those names jibe with 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:32.040 your historical numbers as being reliably over umpires. 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:36.840 Yeah, Marquez has been consistently over And kind of the 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:40.159 methodology on this is I took the last four years, 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:44.120 so from six twenty six of twenty nineteen till now, 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:47.520 and Marquez has like one hundred and twelve games, and 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:51.639 then I used a walk percentage and a strikeout percentage 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.840 to come up with like a projected er and basically, 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:58.439 long story short is, in games that he umpires, I 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.600 have my total project actual eight percent greater than it 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:05.680 would would be uh normally so and it makes a difference. Gal, 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:07.679 I mean, if you're looking at a projected total of 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:11.320 nine and it's eight percent greater than it should be, 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:13.640 and I'm going to challenge my mas skills here, it'd 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:16.840 be it'd zero point seventy two runs greater. So that 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:19.080 that could make the difference between making an overplayer not 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:21.160 making an overplay one percent. 0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:24.480 It could absolutely And so again, just be cognizant of 0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:26.040 that that if you, you know, let's say you have a 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:28.520 lean on a game to the over to the under, 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:30.840 but then you see the home plade umpire is going 0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:33.920 to be someone who is, you know, consistently the opposite 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:37.080 of what your handicap is. Maybe maybe you don't switch 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:39.160 your bet. Maybe at least it takes you off the bet, 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:41.640 gives you enough enough pause for that. By the way, 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:42.199 the opposite is. 0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:43.560 Such a good point on I just wanted to I 0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:45.280 just wanted to touch on that because I just have 0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:48.879 a practical example of what happened to me on Monday nights. 0:18:48.920 --> 0:18:51.119 So it's the first game of the series, in the 0:18:51.160 --> 0:18:56.200 White Sox Angels game, and my model projected over pretty sizably, 0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:58.239 but by about a run, so so I'm gonna I'm 0:18:58.240 --> 0:19:00.360 gonna play. I know, I don't know who the umpires, 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:03.240 but I'm gonna play the over. Well, the umpire turned 0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:06.440 out to be Bill Miller. Bill Miller is my biggest 0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:10.199 under umpire and the game went under and like, if 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:12.399 you watch the game, like you know why Bill Miller 0:19:12.520 --> 0:19:14.840 is an under umpire because he was just calling balls 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:16.919 outside of the strike zone. So it could bite you 0:19:16.960 --> 0:19:19.639 with little but if you don't do it. And it 0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:22.119