WEBVTT - China vs the US: Kishore Mahbubani on a Zero-Sum Rivalry 0:00:02.920 --> 0:00:07.440 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:09.000 --> 0:00:14.200 Never before in human history, ever we had two powers 0:00:14.640 --> 0:00:18.520 of the size, the scale and reach of United States 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:21.920 and China confronting each other in the way that they 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:25.400 are today. China has become a tiger. 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:31.000 Kishur Mahpubani, diplomat academic who has seen the rise of 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:35.080 China from his native Singapore. You said, what's happening now 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:38.839 is like the Cold War, only America now is behaving 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:42.640 as the Soviet Union was. It's a very unflattering comparison. 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:45.080 The goal on my writings is not to say that 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:48.120 China should win or United States should win. Is to 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:52.080 say that China and US should step back and reflect 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:55.000 whether it is in their interests to engage in such 0:00:55.040 --> 0:00:56.240 a zero sum contest. 0:00:57.640 --> 0:01:02.319 From Bloomberg Weekend, this is the Michelle Hussein Show. I'm 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:10.679 Michelle Hussein. By now you've probably seen a fair amount 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:14.600 of news emerge out of Beijing, the pictures of that 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:20.400 summit between Donald Trump and China's Shi Jinping. It's important 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:23.360 because face to face, one to one meetings like that 0:01:23.680 --> 0:01:28.720 don't happen very often, and yet there's a much bigger 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:32.679 story to tell than that of these two men or 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.920 any two leaders of these two countries. Actually, the real 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:41.720 story is an epic tale, one that has been unfolding 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:47.240 for about thirty years, and it's about supremacy, a battle 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:51.400 to be the world's number one power, which is why 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:54.200 we wanted to dive into the US and China for 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:58.800 this weekend. The story beyond the handshake, the read out 0:01:59.280 --> 0:02:04.040 the truths, and we thought we should discover it through 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:09.120 the perspective of someone who's neither American nor Chinese, someone 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:12.520 who has witnessed the rise of China and its relationship 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:16.120 with the United States from a country that is tiny 0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:22.919 in comparison, Singapore. It's Kishore Mahbubani, who was for three 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:27.520 decades a Singaporean diplomat, rising to become its ambassador at 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:33.040 the United Nations. He's from Singapore's minority Indian community, and 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:36.200 although I've known him for years, I never realized the 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:39.800 circumstances in which he grew up in the nineteen fifties 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:44.440 and sixties, how hard life was in Singapore at that time. 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:48.040 He's written many books, but his most recent is called 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:54.519 Living the Asian Century. It's also his most personal. As 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:57.800 you listen, you might well want more on the people, 0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:01.560 the places, the most moments in time we talk about. 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:04.960 And for that context, have a look at Bloomberg dot 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:08.920 Com Forward slash Michelle, because that's where you'll find this 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:12.920 episode in written form, with my reflections and the pictures 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:17.840 that add to the story. So here's Keshoor Malbubani in 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:21.679 his own words, talking first about why the US and 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:27.160 China matters so much right now. 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:34.960 It is by far the most important contests of our time. 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:39.160 And I think what most people don't realize is that 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:45.360 never before in human history have we had two powers 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:50.400 of the size, the scale and reach of United States 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:53.800 and China confronting each other in the way that they 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:59.040 are today. Because the United States is a remarkably powerful country, 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:02.839 much more powerful than any other great power has been 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:07.400 in human history. And of course, when the Soviet Union collapsed, 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:11.040 the United States was left alone as the sole superpower 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:13.480 in the world, and few expected China to come up 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:19.320 so quickly. But now China has clearly achieved near parity 0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:23.080 with the United States in the scope and scale of 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:26.960 its power too. And therefore you notice when President Trump 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:31.000 launched his tariff wars on all the countries in the world, 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:34.440 only one country stood up to the United States, and 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:36.799 that was China. 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:38.640 In this contest. Then do you see it as bigger 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:43.360 than the economics of it, the desire on the part 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:45.839 of the United States to maintain its position as the 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:49.440 world's biggest economy. Are you talking about powers something broader 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:53.280 than that, a quest to become the world's only superpower. 0:04:54.160 --> 0:04:56.599 Well, you know, Joe politics has been around for about 0:04:56.600 --> 0:05:00.400 two thousand years or so, and so so there are 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:05.719 certain habits of behavior that all great powers share in common. 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:11.880 And the number one power of the time always wants 0:05:11.920 --> 0:05:15.719 to preserve his number one position and not give it 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:19.479 up gracefully and say, Okay, my turn is up, why 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:22.000 don't you take over. It's not like in the world 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:26.680 of business, where IBM will give way to another company, 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:31.239 for example. But in Joe politics is a zero sum game, sadly, 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:35.760 and so even though Washington, DC today is a very 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:41.800 badly divided capital politically, but when it comes to China, 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:46.039 there's a near universal consensus that it is in the 0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:49.960 interests of the United States to stop the rise of China. 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:56.280 And that's why the actions against China remain consistent whether 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:59.560 or not you have President Trump or President Joe Biden 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:04.680 makes no difference. It's not about personalities, it's about the 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:06.200 logic of geopolitics. 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:11.200 And would you say that that is a foolish desire 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:14.120 to stop the rise of China, because this is the 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:19.119 way the world is going, that China is on a 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:24.479 path to become the dominant economic power and the demography 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:25.279 is on its side. 0:06:25.640 --> 0:06:30.159 Well, no, I would say it's not wise policy of 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:34.080 the United States to stop the rise of China, because 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:38.640 China can no longer be stopped. And the only way 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:44.159 to stop China is to ask the Chinese government to 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:49.360 stop improving the livelihood of his own people. Right, That's 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:52.240 the only way that China will stop growing. But China 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:54.960 still has a long way to go. It's per capita 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:59.200 income is way behind that of the United States. There's 0:06:59.200 --> 0:07:02.479 a long way to go. So clearly the Chinese people 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:05.240 want to improve their lives, and the Chinese economy will 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:07.640 keep growing. Of course, there'll be ups and downs like 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:12.280 in any other economy, but equally importantly, and this is 0:07:12.320 --> 0:07:16.720 the key point. We live now today in a small, interdependent, 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:23.800 fragile planet Earth, and our overall priority as humanity should 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:26.480 be to try and preserve planet Earth before we lose 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:29.960 it to climate change and other forces. So there is 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:35.200 afore a larger imperative need for the US and China 0:07:35.320 --> 0:07:39.240 to collaborate to deal with many common challenges in the world, 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:42.240 rather than to engage in a zero sum game with 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:45.360 each other. I've used a different analogy in a former 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:48.680 book of mine, The Great Convergence, saying that the world 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:51.920 has shrunk, the one hundred and ninety three countries are 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:54.800 no longer one hundred and ninety three separate boats. The 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:57.520 one hundred ninety three countries and hundre ninety three separate 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:03.000 cabins on the same vote. If your cabin on the 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:08.280 same board, there's no point protecting your cabin if the 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:13.040 boat is sinking. So therefore there's a common interest for 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:17.640 us in China to come together and take care of 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:21.640 the planet Earth, because that's far more important than whatever 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:25.000 you gained to make in this Joe political game or 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:25.680 one up mentioned. 0:08:26.080 --> 0:08:29.560 Take me back to nineteen ninety three and a moment 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:33.640 between the two countries that you saw for yourself as 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:38.000 a Singaporean diplomat at the Apex Summit of that year. 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:40.160 What did you see and why did it matter? 0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:46.400 Well, this was the first meeting. Ever, within the new 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:49.880 President of the United States, then Bill Clinton, and the 0:08:49.960 --> 0:08:54.240 leader of China, Changsa Men. And you may recall that 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:59.320 in the nineteen ninety two election, Bill Clinton famously stood 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:04.559 out from H. W. Bush by saying, unlike President Bush, 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:09.160 I will not coddle the butchers of Beijing. So there 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:11.440 was a lot of tension in the air wondering whether 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:16.040 or not Bill Clinton would launch an attack on President Chunkstermin. 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:20.920 And indeed, President Chunksirmin himself was a bit nervous because 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:22.840 when he read out his own speech, he read it 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:26.960 so fast that the Taiwanese delegates said to him, slow down, 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:29.880 the interpreters cannot follow you. So there was a lot 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:34.360 of nervousness in the air. And amidst all this nervousness, 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:39.080 when we had a short break for coffee, the first 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:43.800 person President Bill Clinton approach was President Chunksirmin. And I 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:50.720 saw with my own eyes Bill Clinton coddling Chunkstermin in 0:09:50.760 --> 0:09:53.360 a way that he said that he would never do. 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:56.920 Because that so it was quite a remarkable and everyone 0:09:56.960 --> 0:10:02.280 in the room noticed it was watching incredible sort of 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:06.920 relief and happiness that what could have been a painful 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:11.960 confrontational meeting turned out to be a really remarkable breakthrough 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:13.280 in US China relations. 0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:17.280 And the Butcher of Beijing reference was one to Tianeman 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:18.760 Square a few years before. 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:23.000 Exactly. He was referring to what happened in Tienanmen Square 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:24.360 in nineteen eighty nine. 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:30.040 And what did that moment which you witnessed then lead to? 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:32.599 What did it unlock in the years ahead? 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:41.480 Well, I think it enabled the renormalization of US China relations, because, 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:46.559 as you know, Tienanmun set the China relationship back quite badly. 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:48.440 And as you know before then, of course, during the 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:55.080 Cold War, because the United States needed China as a 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:59.720 counterweight against the Soviet Union, the United States would always 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:04.520 be and over backwards to accommodate China. And I can 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:10.560 tell you an even more horrifying story. In nineteen eighty one, 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:15.920 there was something called the International Conference on Cambodia, where 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:21.800 there was a disagreement between China and the Asian countries 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:25.680 about whether or not the government of Paul Pot should 0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:28.599 be allowed to go back to Nompen after the Vietnamese 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:33.400 troops left Cambodia, and China took the correct position under 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:36.440 international law, which is that when a foreign invader leaves, 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:41.280 Pallpot comes back. But Asian countries said, no, this cannot 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:44.280 happen because no country will accept the return of Paulpot. 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:49.400 And fortunately the United States intervene. So we thought the 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:52.120 United States would of course cite the Asian countries who 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:57.079 were calling for free elections. Instead, to our absolute horror, 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:01.160 the United States said, don't stand up with China. We 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:05.840 need China for our sending up the Soviet Union. So 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:08.400 that was one of the most amazing things I saw 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.480 in my life. But that showed you how far we 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:14.439 had come between nineteen eighty one, where China is being 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:17.880 accommodated all the time, to the end of the Cold War, 0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:21.360 and then China was suddenly an irrelevant partner then. 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:26.439 But while saying that neither country should be treating it 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:29.640 as the contest that they are, I think overall you're 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:33.600 much more critical of US policy towards China than the 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:36.320 other way around, aren't you. I read that you said 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:40.680 that what's happening now is like the Cold War, only 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:45.240 America now is behaving as the Soviet Union was during 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:49.280 the Cold War. That when the Soviet Union behaved unilaterally 0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:52.760 ignored international opinion, and that was the time when America 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:57.160 acted multilaterally and marshall global opinion to its side. It's 0:12:57.160 --> 0:12:58.800 a very unflattering comparison. 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:03.520 Well, that has been made by other scholars to that 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:07.560 in the contests between the United States and Soviet Union, 0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:16.920 American society was flourishing, but Soviet society wasn't flourishing. But today, 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:20.600 in the contest between the United States and China, the 0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:25.280 bottom fifty percent of the American population, they haven't seen 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:29.800 this standard of living improve in several decades. And indeed, 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.880 as you know, the indicators of people at the bottom 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:36.720 are very bad in the United States. And therefore the 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:40.520 logical thing for United States to do is to first 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:44.640 focus on uplifting its people rather than to try to 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:49.440 engage in a zero sum jeopolitical contests with China. But 0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:53.400 I can tell you in Joe politics, unfortunately common sense 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:59.080 doesn't work because this desire to be number one is 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:03.520 so somehow the deeply ingrain into the human brain. That's 0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:07.440 very hard to persuade the policymakers. Hey step back and think, 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:10.840 what is a better approach to take the goal of 0:14:10.880 --> 0:14:14.200 my writings is not to say that China should win 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:17.560 or United States should win. The goal of my writings 0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:20.760 is to say that China and US should step back 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.840 and reflect whether it is in their larger long term 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:28.560 interests to engage in such a zero sum contests. 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:32.960 And the standard of living of the Chinese population has 0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:36.720 risen immeasurably in recent decades. There are, of course, though, 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.600 rights that they do not enjoy compared to Americans' freedom 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:43.000 of expression, the right to choose their own leaders. 0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:47.360 Well, you're right, I mean, China has rescued eight hundred 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:52.840 million people are of poverty. That's two and a half 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:57.360 to three times the population of United States, and that's 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:02.840 an amazing achievement. The Chinese don't enjoy many of the 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:09.640 rights that Americans enjoy, But Chinese society has got its 0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:14.840 own political DNA, which has been embedded in the Chinese 0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:20.000 society only for three thousand years, and over three thousand years, 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:24.320 the big lesson that the Chinese people have learned is 0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:27.960 that when there's chaos in the center, in the capital, 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:33.760 the people suffer. But when there's political stability and control 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:37.920 in the center, the people prosper and flourish. And when 0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:42.240 people say that the Chinese people are not free, I 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:47.160 ask a very simple question. The Chinese people are not free? 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:52.520 Why is it? Over one hundred and thirty million Chinese 0:15:52.680 --> 0:16:00.800 people leave China each year and then, amazingly, using their 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:06.600 own two feet, returned to China every year. Now, if 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:12.560 China was this harsh, dark communist gula that is portrayed 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:16.880 in the Anglo Saxon media, the Chinese people are irrational. 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:20.360 They shouldn't be restarted in China. But the Chinese who 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:25.440 are returning to China are the ones who have experienced 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:30.440 life overseas. So China, to put it simply, is a 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:38.160 different civilization from Western civilization. So the kinds of society 0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:41.440 that the Chinese people want at the end of the 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:46.520 day will be different from Western society. And that's something 0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:48.360 that we got to learn to live with in the 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:50.680 new multi civilizational world. 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:53.640 I hear what you're saying, and I'm also at the 0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:56.200 same time thinking of the evidence that emerged a few 0:16:56.320 --> 0:17:01.240 years ago about those re education camps in western China 0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:06.920 in Sinjiang Province, where Chinese Muslims were detained, some as 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:09.600 young as in their teens right up to people in 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:13.920 their seventies because the state felt they needed re educating 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:15.120 about their beliefs. 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:21.159 Well, there's no question that China's internal arrangements are not 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:25.959 the same as those of Western society. But you know, 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:33.240 when the West raises concerns about the Muslims in China, 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:35.800 the one comment that the rest of the world makes 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:41.240 is that in general, the West doesn't like Muslims. In general, 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:45.760 the West doesn't like Chinese, but for some strange reason, 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:50.880 they love Chinese Muslims, and it's because it's a political 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:57.160 tool to be used to embarrass China. Unfortunately, that political 0:17:57.320 --> 0:18:00.920 tool no longer works because they're all world is saying. 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.919 If you in the West are so concerned about the 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:08.720 conditions of Muslims who are oppress, what have you said 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:20.960 about Gaza? What have you done about Gaza. 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:27.720 You have seen international relations through your work as a 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:31.200 Singaporean diplomat over many years, But I want to ask 0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:34.080 you about your life story too, because I think you 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:38.320 have lived history in a really interesting way in that 0:18:38.400 --> 0:18:42.520 you came of age in Singapore just at the moment 0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:46.719 as it was getting its independence from Malaysia after British 0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:50.560 colonial rule had come to an end. And when I 0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:53.440 read your book Living the Asian Century, I was really 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:57.080 struck by the hardship that your family experienced, and that 0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:01.480 you experienced that when you started school in nineteen fifty four, 0:19:02.040 --> 0:19:05.200 you were seriously underweight and you had to be put 0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:07.560 on a special feeding program in school. 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:12.399 Well, looking back now, this is a strange thing to say. 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:16.359 I feel that it was almost a privilege to have 0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:20.400 grown up in a poor Third world society. And you're right. 0:19:20.440 --> 0:19:22.639 I was put in a special feeding program at the 0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:26.679 age of six because I was technically under nourish, and 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:29.800 I lived in a house with no flush toilet until 0:19:29.840 --> 0:19:33.000 I was thirteen years old. One of the biggest changes 0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:36.160 in my life was when the flush toilet appeared, because 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:40.399 I felt that my sense of dignity improved dramatically. And 0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:44.240 also my family was very poor. My father went to jail, 0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:46.879 the debt collectors came to our house to try and 0:19:46.960 --> 0:19:50.320 auction off the furniture in our house. So I went 0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:54.199 through a very rough Third World childhood. My mother was 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:56.680 the one who took the brunt of all the pain 0:19:57.480 --> 0:20:02.800 and difficulties, and not one did she crack. And every 0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:05.840 time in my life I go through a difficult patch 0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:09.399 and when I feel depressed, I just think of my 0:20:09.520 --> 0:20:13.400 mother and I say, my mother never cracked under much 0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:19.240 greater pressure, how can I ever crack? So that resilience 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:24.239 that my mother gave me was an amazing gift in 0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:24.880 my life. 0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:28.119 She had had a narrow escape from communal violence in 0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:32.400 what is now Pakistan at the independence of India nineteen 0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:35.560 forty seven. Your father had obviously had a very difficult 0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:38.879 early life, sent from what was then British India to 0:20:38.920 --> 0:20:43.280 Singapore and starting to work manual labor at the age 0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:43.880 of thirteen. 0:20:44.200 --> 0:20:46.919 Yes, both my parents, none of them ever went to 0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:50.520 university or not even to high school or even secondary 0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:54.760 school by the way, And my father, unfortunately it was 0:20:54.840 --> 0:20:56.760 often at a very young age, and at the age 0:20:56.800 --> 0:20:59.880 of thirteen, was sent to the British colony in Singapore 0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:04.919 and ended up quite naturally without adult supervision, engaged in 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:09.800 several bad habits like smoking and drinking and gambling. And 0:21:09.880 --> 0:21:12.159 so my mother, who had an arranged marriage, had no 0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:17.080 idea that she was marrying an alcoholic gambler, and that, 0:21:17.200 --> 0:21:20.280 of course was the root of our problems. And my 0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:23.280 mother too, as you said, had a close shave because 0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:27.480 she was in a train leaving Pakistan in the middle 0:21:27.480 --> 0:21:30.240 of the night in the desert when her last compartment 0:21:30.280 --> 0:21:34.119 got decoupled and if a mob had come along, she 0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:38.200 would have been killed, but she survived. So I guess 0:21:38.200 --> 0:21:40.240 our family has had lots of close shaves. 0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:44.040 Yeah, But as you say, in Singapore too, when you 0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:46.480 were growing up, it was a poor neighborhood. Few of 0:21:46.520 --> 0:21:49.919 your peers even finished school, let alone went to university. 0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:54.560 And that description in your book of living without a toilet, 0:21:54.640 --> 0:21:57.399 it's so striking compared to what Singapore is today that 0:21:57.760 --> 0:22:01.560 each morning the night soil men went around the neighborhood. 0:22:01.600 --> 0:22:04.000 They opened a small door in the wall of every house, 0:22:04.040 --> 0:22:07.240 pulled out a metal can filled with twenty four hours 0:22:07.280 --> 0:22:11.639 worth of feces and urine from the occupants of the house. 0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:17.000 The sights and smells of that experience never go away. 0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:21.840 But what's amazing is that Singapores per capita income and 0:22:22.000 --> 0:22:25.680 independence was around five hundred dollars, the same as Ghanai 0:22:25.720 --> 0:22:30.280 in West Africa. But today Singapore per capita income is 0:22:30.480 --> 0:22:34.199 ninety four thousand dollars, among the highest in the world, 0:22:35.040 --> 0:22:41.480 and no country in the world has gone from five 0:22:41.560 --> 0:22:44.440 hundred dollars per capita the ninety four thousand per capita 0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:48.960 in sixty years, or less than one human lifetime. Now 0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:52.680 that's one of the most remarkable stories of human history. 0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:57.359 And again that's been one of my great privileges to 0:22:57.520 --> 0:23:02.080 travel this remarkable journey upwards with my fellow Singaporeans. 0:23:02.320 --> 0:23:05.080 It didn't feel that way in nineteen sixty five, did it. 0:23:05.119 --> 0:23:09.159 I think you were seventeen, still in school. Singapore left 0:23:09.560 --> 0:23:13.240 the federation it was in with Malaysia, and there's a 0:23:13.280 --> 0:23:16.679 sense of despondency everywhere about how it can possibly survive 0:23:16.720 --> 0:23:17.280 on its own. 0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:22.480 Well, I remember the day vividly, August nine, nineteen sixty five, 0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:27.919 when Singapore was expelled from the Malaysian Federation, and no 0:23:28.040 --> 0:23:32.359 one in Singapore celebrated our independence because we thought Singapore 0:23:32.520 --> 0:23:35.840 was doomed. And there was a simple reason why Singapore 0:23:35.960 --> 0:23:39.199 was doomed, because Singapore was a city. And when a 0:23:39.240 --> 0:23:41.960 city is cut off from his hinterland, which Malaysia was 0:23:41.960 --> 0:23:45.679 the hinterland for Singapore, he can die like taking a 0:23:45.760 --> 0:23:48.800 heart out of a body and expecting the heart to 0:23:48.840 --> 0:23:52.919 survive without the supply of blood and other materials to 0:23:52.960 --> 0:23:56.000 the heart. So we was a very difficult time and 0:23:56.160 --> 0:24:00.400 no one expected Singapore to succeed in the way he did. 0:24:00.440 --> 0:24:03.320 But of course their success was due to three remarkable 0:24:04.280 --> 0:24:09.280 jeoepolitical geniuses Lei Kwan Yu, Gokeng Swi and Raja Utnam. 0:24:09.560 --> 0:24:11.439 One of the greatest privileges in my life is that 0:24:11.480 --> 0:24:14.040 I got to work with all three of them, and 0:24:14.119 --> 0:24:16.600 they were probably the three best tutors I ever had 0:24:16.640 --> 0:24:17.640 in my life. 0:24:17.600 --> 0:24:20.280 Not just in diplomacy, broader than that. 0:24:20.920 --> 0:24:25.440 Much much broader. They were big, deep thinkers, and all 0:24:25.520 --> 0:24:28.680 three of them took a long range view of history. 0:24:29.160 --> 0:24:32.400 So the reason why Singapore was economically successful, of course, 0:24:32.400 --> 0:24:35.240 mister le Kwan, you played a very important role, but 0:24:35.400 --> 0:24:41.160 the economic architect of Singapore's miracle was doctor Goking Sui. 0:24:41.840 --> 0:24:44.439 And when I sat with him, he would tell me 0:24:44.480 --> 0:24:48.159 about how the Japanese succeeded, what happened in the Meiji Reformation, 0:24:49.040 --> 0:24:51.520 the lessons that Japanese learned from the rest of the world, 0:24:51.600 --> 0:24:56.280 and how Singapore must try to emulate Japan and therefore succeed. So, 0:24:56.400 --> 0:25:00.760 I mean, his understanding of history was amazing. 0:25:00.720 --> 0:25:02.760 You know. I interviewed Li Kwan new once I was 0:25:02.800 --> 0:25:05.760 really early in my career. I was in Singapore and 0:25:05.840 --> 0:25:08.639 the BBC sent me to interview him, and he was 0:25:08.680 --> 0:25:13.800 perfectly civil but I think he probably felt quite insulted 0:25:13.880 --> 0:25:18.280 that someone so junior had been sent to talk to him, 0:25:18.359 --> 0:25:21.200 the senior minister and founding father of Singapore. 0:25:21.760 --> 0:25:24.320 But mister Le Kwan Yu was acutely aware that you 0:25:24.359 --> 0:25:28.000 were with BBC, and he knew that by talking to 0:25:28.040 --> 0:25:30.800 you that he would get his views and opinions to 0:25:30.960 --> 0:25:34.639 a very large section of the human population, and so 0:25:34.800 --> 0:25:36.199 he would have been happy to talk to you. 0:25:37.320 --> 0:25:40.520 Tell me, then, in this picture that you've painted of 0:25:41.359 --> 0:25:45.560 rising China a rise that can't be stopped. It is 0:25:45.600 --> 0:25:50.520 a country that, in its own way, has these moments 0:25:50.560 --> 0:25:55.880 where it destabilizes neighbors, for example, closing airspace around South 0:25:55.960 --> 0:25:59.719 Korea's borders, as has been the case recently, doing things 0:25:59.760 --> 0:26:04.160 that upset or worry the Philippines or Taiwan, of course 0:26:04.440 --> 0:26:08.959 Japan at times. How do these states in the region, 0:26:09.000 --> 0:26:12.680 including Singapore, fair in that Asian order. 0:26:13.800 --> 0:26:19.040 Well, I think we have to understand that China's rice 0:26:19.160 --> 0:26:24.320 has been remarkable and dramatic. And to explain how dramatic 0:26:24.400 --> 0:26:27.199 it is, just imagine when you and I began this 0:26:27.320 --> 0:26:31.560 conversation a few minutes ago, there was a cat sitting 0:26:31.600 --> 0:26:35.840 next to me, and suddenly, after fifteen minutes or twenty minutes, 0:26:35.840 --> 0:26:38.640 I turned around. I noticed a cat has become a tiger. 0:26:39.640 --> 0:26:42.560 Now I was very comfortable living sitting next to a cat. 0:26:43.320 --> 0:26:47.800 I'm very uncomfortable sitting next to a tiger. Now China 0:26:47.920 --> 0:26:52.520 has become a tiger. You have to accept that it 0:26:52.600 --> 0:26:57.000 is now the second most powerful country in the world 0:26:57.680 --> 0:27:02.440 and still rising strongly, and so we have to learn 0:27:02.560 --> 0:27:06.320 to live with a much stronger power in our neighborhood. 0:27:07.000 --> 0:27:11.240 And the idea that any power can be benevolent, the 0:27:11.359 --> 0:27:16.200 term benevolent great power is an oxymoron. All great powers 0:27:16.240 --> 0:27:21.320 will protect their interests. The neighbors of China therefore have 0:27:21.440 --> 0:27:24.000