1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,240 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we 3 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 2: go there throwing in so spect, I'm sitting it to 4 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 2: cash TOUCHI we. 5 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: See most gambles when they go to gamble, they go 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:20,240 Speaker 1: to wind. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 3: That's incredible, big bank, small banks. 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the 9 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: ultimate kabine. 10 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: If you want to fall, and we are under way. 11 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host, 12 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 3: Evan Abrams, and this week for our week seventeen recap episode, 13 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 3: I am joined by the one and the Only, Philly Ward. 14 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 3: Philly is a part of our predictive analytics team. He's 15 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,319 Speaker 3: in for Brandon tonight. So Billy, first of all, what's up, man, 16 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 3: how are you? 17 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 2: I'm good. I was really hoping the Vikings would lose, 18 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: and I could say that's why Brandon without too sad 19 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 2: about a Vikings loss, but unfortunately that's not the case. Yeah. 20 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 3: Well yeah, fourteen and two this year, they've only lost twice, 21 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 3: so you're you know, obviously a tough game tonight. But 22 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:09,559 Speaker 3: we'll get into all of that stuff. So we're gonna 23 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 3: go game by game here, talk a little playoff scenarios. 24 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 3: We'll even dig into some week eighteen lines as you know, 25 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 3: you've got you know, Ravens up to like eighteen point favorite. 26 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 3: Some wild stuff out there, but we will start with 27 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 3: Sunday Night football, so a wild one. Maybe the game 28 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 3: of the week so far. I mean we got overtime. 29 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 3: You kind of got the whole kit and kaboodle in 30 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 3: this one, but Washington ends up winning the game thirty 31 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 3: to twenty four in overtime. Let me actually check the 32 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 3: closing line here, So the line closed at three and 33 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 3: a half for Washington, which they end up covering in overtime, 34 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 3: and forty six and a half which went over in regulation. 35 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 3: But to me, the story of this game was Ilumide Zachias, who. 36 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 2: Honestly went off. 37 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 3: I mean in our projections tool, we had him for 38 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 3: over three and a half options at plus money. I 39 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 3: think he ended with like eight or nine in this game. 40 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 3: He ended with eight for eighty five in a touchdown. 41 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 3: So even in the first half he had six for 42 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:12,519 Speaker 3: sixty three. I mean they were going to him all 43 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 3: night as aj Terrell was really shutting down Terry McLaurin 44 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 3: on that side, who ended up with one catch for 45 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 3: five yards and they he got tart seven targets in 46 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 3: the game, so it wasn't like they were trying. They 47 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 3: were not trying to get to him. 48 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 2: I mean, I. 49 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 3: Think the thing everyone will talk about from this game 50 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 3: would be the clock management by Raheem Morris, obviously coming 51 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 3: back to bite them a little bit as we ended 52 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 3: up going to overtime. Maybe could have gotten more points 53 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 3: out of it, but to me, that's probably the scenario. 54 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 3: The fifty six yard field goal obviously about eight to 55 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 3: ten yards short by Patterson. You look at the box 56 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,239 Speaker 3: score though, before I toss it over to you, Jane 57 00:02:56,320 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 3: Daniels two hundred and twenty seven passing yards, one hundred 58 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 3: twenty seven rushing yards. I look this up. So quarterbacks 59 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 3: to go two twenty and one twenty with two passing touchdowns, Lamar, 60 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 3: Josh Kaepernick, Vic Randall, Cunningham and now jayde and Daniels, 61 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 3: so not a bad list. And obviously getting the rookie 62 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 3: record with rushing yards, he's been ridiculous. What else you 63 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 3: got in this game? Just a wild one. 64 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 2: Yeah. The big takeaway for me is how much sooner 65 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 2: should the Falcons have switched to Michael Pennix, Because no, 66 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 2: I'm a big fantasy guy I drafted Kyle Pitt and 67 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 2: Drake London a ton this year and it was very frustrating. 68 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 2: And now all of a sudden, they come alive when 69 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 2: they get a quarterback who's you know, functional in his 70 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 2: arm still works and stuff that we haven't been able 71 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: to say about Kirk Cousins seems like a little bit 72 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 2: too little, too late for the Falcons. I think they 73 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 2: can still make the playoffs. I haven't ran through all 74 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 2: the scenarios here, but you got to figure, you know, 75 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 2: a few extra weeks of season and he would be 76 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 2: better at this point. His interception last week wasn't really 77 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 2: his fault. He hasn't been super accurate. But the life 78 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 2: we've seen out of the Falcons offense the last two 79 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 2: weeks has just been so much better than we saw 80 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 2: it with Kirk Cousins. So that's the takeaway for me, 81 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 2: is that this would be a very different Falcons team. 82 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 2: I think if we got seven or eight weeks out 83 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 2: of Michael Tinex instead of just these last two. 84 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 3: Oh, there's no question. I actually looked this stat up 85 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 3: to use kind of to basically tell your point. Since 86 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 3: week thirteen, Kirk Cousins is completion percentage over expected was 87 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,159 Speaker 3: twenty seventh to thirty qbs. I mean, they just had 88 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 3: to make the move. He wasn't getting it to any 89 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 3: of the targets. And we even saw it tonight. I mean, 90 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 3: Pendix looked great. He had that fourth quarter drive that 91 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 3: basically got them back into the game, the fourth down, 92 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 3: over and over and over again. It's looking like they 93 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 3: made the right move right now. For next week, Atlanta 94 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,599 Speaker 3: is minus seven and a half at home against Carolina. 95 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 3: Obviously needs to win that game, and then I think 96 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 3: they need some help now with Tampa Bay after the loss. Okay, 97 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,599 Speaker 3: so that is Sunday night football. Let's keep rolling here. 98 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 3: The second most important game of the day probably Green 99 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 3: Bay and Minnesota, and you alluded to it off the 100 00:04:57,800 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 3: top there. 101 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 2: So Minnesota wins the game five. 102 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 3: They actually ended up closing as one point favorite, so 103 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 3: they covered the spread. There. Total goes over forty nine 104 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 3: and a half. Listen for a game that started fumble, punt, punt, 105 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 3: missfield goal and ended up actually going over the total 106 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 3: is something noteworthy I felt worth mentioning here. But the 107 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 3: story Packers pass defense and Sam Darnold thirty three or 108 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 3: forty three three seventy seven three touchdowns, probably more importantly 109 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 3: for the playoff run justin Jefferson, Naylor, Addison, and Hockinson 110 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 3: all with sixty plus receiving yard, so he was really 111 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,040 Speaker 3: spreading it around here and green Bay. I mean, the 112 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 3: difference by the end of the game was the fact 113 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 3: that Green Bay had three points in the first half 114 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 3: and they were really slow to get their passing game going. 115 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,919 Speaker 3: Minnesota's won nine straight and over their last seven games. 116 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 3: Donald eighteen touchdowns, two interceptions. I mean, what else were 117 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 3: you kind of seeing in this one? Then maybe we 118 00:05:58,279 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 3: can take forward. 119 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it really wasn't as close I thought, 120 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 2: at least as the two point final score made it 121 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 2: seem to be. Minnesota one hundred and seventy more total 122 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 2: night yards, about eleven extra minutes time of possession. They 123 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 2: had two mis field goals in there, so you get 124 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 2: either one of those two. A little bit of the 125 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 2: drama coming down at the end not so much what 126 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 2: it was. And then the big takeaway for me, I 127 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,160 Speaker 2: should have prefaced my little dig at Brandon by saying, 128 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,720 Speaker 2: I'm a Lions fan. I'm here just outside of Detroit. 129 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 2: Monday night football kind of meaningless now, at least in 130 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 2: terms of yeah, you know, actual playoff position just because 131 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 2: of that Minnesota win. So from where I'm sitting, that's 132 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 2: that's the big story here, is that it all comes 133 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 2: down to week eighteen for the Vikings and the Lions, 134 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 2: where had the Packers came back and won this one, 135 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 2: Lions could have clinched tomorrow, which obviously impacts a lot 136 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 2: of stuff in terms of motivation for both these teams 137 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 2: next week. 138 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Campbell has said yeah, and Campbell has 139 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 3: said he kind of wants to bite kneecaps and keep going. 140 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 3: But we'll see how much he actually wants to do 141 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 3: that with this scenario today and listen next week. Minnesota 142 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 3: did that is a three point spread. Total is fifty 143 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 3: two and a half right now, which is pretty large 144 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 3: for the twenty twenty four NFL. One fun note that 145 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 3: I did tweet out that's probably worth talking about in Minnesota, 146 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 3: So they are now fourteen and two straight up. They 147 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 3: are now seven and a half games above their preseason 148 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 3: win total, and that would be the first team to 149 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 3: do that since two thousand and four. So expectations through 150 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 3: the roof when it comes to Minnesota and what Sam 151 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 3: Darnold has done there and a really fun one that 152 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 3: I had in my article. So Minnesota does win this 153 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 3: game by a small margin. Kevin O'Connell now twenty six 154 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 3: and nine straight up in one score games, and they 155 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 3: are nine and one in one score games this year. 156 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 3: So everything comes down to Week eighteen, one seed in 157 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 3: the NFC by home field, So can't wait for that 158 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 3: one next week. All right, Before I move on here, 159 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 3: I'll just give you my big stat, which my big 160 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 3: stat is really simple, just the fact that favorites keep winning. Honestly, 161 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 3: After Washington one tonight on Sunday Night Football and they 162 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 3: ended up covering in overtime, Favorites are now fifty nine 163 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 3: and seventeen straight up seventy eight percent since week thirteen, 164 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 3: and I look this one up before coming on. Since 165 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 3: week six, favorites of just three points or more eighty 166 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 3: two percent one fourteen and twenty six, and week after 167 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 3: week after week, it just feels like we keep seeing 168 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 3: the same thing. This is crazy, Billy, So I'm just 169 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 3: gonna list off since week thirteen what these favorites have 170 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 3: done straight up twelve and three, twelve and four, twelve 171 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 3: and four, ten and three thirteen and three. Uh, just 172 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 3: wild run. So I don't know if you have anything 173 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 3: to say about that, but it's kind of what we're seeing, 174 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 3: at least heading into the playoffs here. 175 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 2: I wonder if it's just a blip on the radar 176 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 2: or something we need to think about next year. I 177 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 2: guess it's the real question there, because on the one hand, 178 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 2: maybe markets are just getting more efficient, right, We're we're 179 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 2: determining who should be the favorite more accurately. But the 180 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 2: NFL is inherently such a small sample size that I 181 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 2: don't want to come in and just blindly bet every 182 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 2: favorite week one and next year, and you know see 183 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 2: how that works out for me? 184 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 3: Oh god no. And I think history would show and 185 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 3: I can probably look this up this week, that favorite 186 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 3: heavy seasons might have a reversal in the playoffs. Not 187 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 3: that that has like a direct correlation or anything like that, 188 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 3: but it would be something interesting just to put some 189 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 3: data behind. All. Right, let's get through the rest of 190 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 3: the slate here. So we are going to go to 191 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 3: the Saturday games quickly just to kind of touch on 192 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 3: them because they have impact on our playoff scenarios and 193 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 3: kind of discussion going on here. So we will start 194 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:33,560 Speaker 3: with Denver and Cincinnati. So Cincinnati ends up winning the 195 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 3: game thirty to twenty four in overtime, covering the three 196 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 3: point spread total over fifty and a half. Another favorite 197 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 3: who ends up covering in overtime after tonight, that'd be 198 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 3: the sixth this season favorite that covers an ot, second 199 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 3: most we've had in the last twenty five years. So 200 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 3: if you feel like there's been a lot, there has 201 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 3: been And aside from this Sunday night football game, maybe 202 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,319 Speaker 3: like the best game we've also seen because that Denver 203 00:09:56,400 --> 00:10:00,959 Speaker 3: Cincinnati game was awesome and Burrows were And I'll give 204 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 3: you one Borough stat and kind of just toss it 205 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 3: to you here. He has eight straight games of three 206 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 3: plus passing touchdowns. It's only been done by four Peyton Manning, 207 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 3: eighteen Andrew Luck and seven Brady. That is it. 208 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 2: So that is the company he keeps. 209 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 3: And he probably won't even win MVP this year because 210 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 3: you have some ridiculous other athletes. What else you got here, Billy? 211 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean hard to win the MVP in a 212 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 2: season where they probably won't make the playoffs. I think 213 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,199 Speaker 2: they need kind of a miracle in terms of help 214 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,679 Speaker 2: from other people. The big takeaway for me is kind 215 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 2: of looking back at this Bengals season, guys not playing 216 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 2: in the preseason and not coming in ready seems to 217 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 2: be a real thing. I know people have talked about 218 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 2: it in the past. The Bengals. You throw away their 219 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 2: three or four game losing straight to start the season. 220 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 2: They're one of the better teams in the AFC from 221 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 2: that point on, and it kind of feels like their 222 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 2: windows closed here right Like, probably not going to resign 223 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 2: T Higgins. The defense is terrible. So that's the takeaway 224 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 2: that I have for this year with them in general. 225 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 2: It'd be fun to see if they get in. You know, 226 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 2: they'd be a scary team, I think for anyone in 227 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 2: the playoffs. But I think the scenario is pretty narrow 228 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 2: for them. I think they need somebody to lose to 229 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 2: the resting Chiefs for that to happen, as well as 230 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 2: some other help. 231 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, they do. 232 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 2: Scenarios right now as we look at it. 233 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 3: But I actually let me just read this off because 234 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 3: I believe this is pretty accurate. So Broncos win versus 235 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 3: the Chiefs, and Denver's in. If the Broncos lose, the 236 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 3: Dolphins win, the Dolphins are in. If the Broncos and 237 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 3: Dolphins lose and the Bengals win, then the Bengals are in, 238 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 3: and if all of them lose, Denver gets in. So 239 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 3: I believe Cincinnati needs a Broncos and Dolphins loss while 240 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 3: Cincinnati is minus two and a half in Pittsburgh next week, 241 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,719 Speaker 3: and that line was too, so it looks like they 242 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 3: are taking money lining going up a little bit. The 243 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 3: only other mark I wanted to make on this game, 244 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 3: I just I hated what happened to Chase Brown with 245 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 3: the injury at the end and the decision by Zach 246 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 3: Taylor and him to go down and then him to 247 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 3: score on the next play, and then Sean Payton going 248 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,320 Speaker 3: for two obviously ends up kind of biting them in 249 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 3: the butt there, but I think you know, and the 250 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 3: tie obviously was the scenario where Denver could have had 251 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 3: the tie and gotten in any way, But I. 252 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 2: Still feel like you should have gone for two. 253 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 3: Let's go into the next one here, Arizona and the Rams. 254 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 3: Rams win the game thirteen to nine, but Arizona ends 255 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 3: up covering the six and a half points spread as 256 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 3: an underdog total goes under forty eight. I mean Arizona's 257 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 3: down thirteen to nine, six and a half minutes left 258 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 3: and the first drive Kyler gets sacked, forces a fourth 259 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 3: and ten chuck interception. Next drive, after the d does 260 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 3: their job enforce the punt, Kyler drives the field and 261 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 3: just a misstime rat with McBride second interception, and that 262 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 3: basically ends the game. I mean, his two interceptions. If 263 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 3: you look at the box score was kind of the 264 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 3: difference is the Rams defense for the third straight week 265 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:53,559 Speaker 3: have done really almost nothing. Thirteen points, nineteen points, twelve points. 266 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 3: I mean, Kyler threw for three hundred yards, Arizona had 267 00:12:56,720 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 3: two full yards more per carry, thirteen minutes more possession. 268 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 3: Just crazy and one stat I'll give you before I 269 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 3: toss it to you. And I tweeted this out. In 270 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 3: games played November or later, Kyler Murray now thirteen and 271 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 3: twenty nine straight up thirty one percent. And I really 272 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 3: couldn't believe this. I had to look it up, Billy, 273 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 3: But in those November or later games, he is now 274 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 3: one in seventeen straight up individual games, lost fifteen straight, 275 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 3: which almost feels absolutely impossible, but seems to be a 276 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 3: pattern for Arizona every year. 277 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, that's exactly what I was going to say. 278 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:35,080 Speaker 2: It just feels like we have this conversation somewhere every 279 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,680 Speaker 2: year with the Cardinals. They're okay, they're in the thick 280 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 2: of it, and then they just fall off a cliff 281 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 2: late in the year. And we're almost seeing the opposite 282 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 2: trend with the Rams, where they start kind of slow, 283 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:48,839 Speaker 2: it seems like under the McVeigh stafford era and heat up. 284 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 2: I'm very impressed by the Rams because they went a 285 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 2: shootout against the Bills and then, as you alluded to, 286 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 2: defense hasn't given up more than nineteen points in three 287 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 2: straight weeks. They're doing what they need to do to win, 288 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 2: even if that's just you know, like Kyler already make mistakes. 289 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 2: But they're gonna be a fun team if they get it. 290 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 2: They didn't clinch with that one, No, they did clinch. Yeah, 291 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 2: so they clinched this week. They're a scary team in 292 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 2: the playoffs. You know, I'm hoping my Lions get that 293 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 2: one seed and don't run into them earlier have to 294 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 2: travel to LA. I think they can compete with anyone. 295 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:18,079 Speaker 2: They obviously, if you can beat the Bills in a 296 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 2: shootout and also win thirteen to nine games, that's a 297 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 2: tough team for anyone. So getting hot at the right time, 298 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 2: getting healthy at the right time as well. 299 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they have pedigree too. I mean seeing 300 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 3: McVeigh and Stafford in the playoffs isn't exactly something I 301 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 3: think anyone wants to see. Even you know, they've they've 302 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 3: been able to be run on, so I think there's 303 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 3: ways to beat them, but still some pedigree there. All right, 304 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 3: let's go to the next one that Chargers and Patriots. 305 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 3: So this one isn't too much. I mean, Chargers win 306 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 3: the game forty to seven, covers six point road favorites. 307 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 3: Total goes over forty one and a half. Aside from 308 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 3: the Chargers punting on their first possession, they end up 309 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 3: scoring in seven of their first eight drives. It was 310 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 3: good to see Dobbins get back nineteen to seventy six 311 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 3: coming off the injury. Lad just absolutely ridiculous with the 312 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 3: two touchdowns. He seems like such a reliable receiver for 313 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 3: I think an offense that we were worried about losing 314 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 3: Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and the whole discussion of 315 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 3: Eckler and all these different things, and the piece is gone. 316 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 3: He just seems like a consistent receiver that is one 317 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 3: of the best route runners in the NFL, and I 318 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 3: think really gives Herbert something that we haven't seen in 319 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 3: a long time. And I think with Johnston and Palmer 320 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 3: and Disley and Smart, you know that they end up 321 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 3: having a probably better offense than I had originally thought 322 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 3: they were going to have entering the year. And it 323 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 3: looks like the Chargers will be locked into the five 324 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 3: or six seed, which means I believe it's Buffalo or 325 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 3: Baltimore depending on how things kind of roll out next week. 326 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 2: And the only other thing is New England. 327 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 3: On the other side, they are in a great spot 328 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 3: now that the Giants won the game, so they will 329 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 3: pick first if they lose next week against Buffalo, which 330 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 3: we can talk about a little bit later with that 331 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 3: Jets Buffalo game. But any thoughts here on New England 332 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 3: and the Chargers. 333 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, it'll be interesting if they do get the first pick, 334 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 2: because Drake May's looked pretty good and I thought it 335 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 2: almost felt like they had a chance until Drake May 336 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 2: went down, which was obviously the first drive came back 337 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 2: in did okay, But yeah, that'll be an interesting scenario. 338 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 2: I think if you're looking about some first overall picks. 339 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 2: Did the Patriots hold on to it and not take 340 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 2: a quarterback because you can get some good plus money 341 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 2: on other players there. I don't follow college close enough 342 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 2: to get too deep into that, but I think there's 343 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 2: an angle there where the Patriots are probably the one 344 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 2: team likely to pick at the top who's not going 345 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 2: to be interested in the quarterback. So if you're looking 346 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 2: about the NFL draft, that's something to keep in mind. 347 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 3: It's a good point. I would also say they'd probably 348 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 3: be interested in trading it potentially for one of those quarterbacks. Yeah, 349 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 3: with someone trying to go up there. All right, let's 350 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 3: go a little bit quickly. Now we're going to go 351 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 3: through the Sunday slate. So Carolina at Tampa Bay. Tampa 352 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 3: Bay wins the game forty eight to fourteen, end up 353 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 3: closing as a nine and a half point favorite. Total 354 00:16:57,480 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 3: goes over forty seven and a half. I mean, just 355 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 3: another incredible day from Baker. Five touchdowns, zero picks. He 356 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 3: has thirty nine touchdowns and fifteen interceptions this year. Just 357 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 3: a bit of a I mean, almost leads the league 358 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 3: in picks, but almost throws forty touchdowns. He's also second 359 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 3: in the NFL in passing yards. This one was probably 360 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 3: the more impactful note based off of his season so far, 361 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,400 Speaker 3: which is he is an eight plus yards per attempt 362 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 3: and a seventy plus completion percentage. The only have a 363 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 3: QB that has that right now this year is GoF 364 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 3: So those two guys kind of on the same page. 365 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 3: Baker's really taken this team to the precipice of the 366 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 3: playoffs with one week to go. And even in this game, 367 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 3: Tampa Bay gets points first five drives, had touchdowns on 368 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,879 Speaker 3: both second half drives. Yeah, only two second half drives 369 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 3: as they ended it on their third drive and basically 370 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 3: ran out the clock. Tampa Bay had the ball for 371 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 3: forty one minutes in this game, so there really doesn't 372 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 3: really wasn't even an opportunity for Carolina any thoughts here. 373 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 2: The big thing that I'm coming away with this coming 374 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 2: into week eighteen is keep an eye on some of 375 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:11,679 Speaker 2: these like milestones and player motivation stuff. Probably didn't need 376 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 2: to keep throwing the bottom Mike Evans down the stretch 377 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:15,960 Speaker 2: in this one that he's looking to get a thousand 378 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 2: yard for I think it's the eleventh straight season. If 379 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:22,159 Speaker 2: he gets there, You know, if you're not thinking about that, 380 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 2: you probably take him out a lot sooner he is 381 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 2: your best healthy wide receiver with Godwin out. But eight targets, 382 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 2: ninety seven yards, two touchdown, state active the whole game. 383 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 2: I think that's a storyline to watch for if you're 384 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 2: betting on player props. Talk about Saquon Barkley a little 385 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 2: bit later, but I think we had a similar effect 386 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 2: there in the Eagles game. So that's one of the 387 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 2: big storylines heading into week seventeen is which of these 388 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 2: players have some milestones, some contract incentive stuff like that 389 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 2: very important if you're betting on it, right, especially the 390 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:50,479 Speaker 2: player prop market. 391 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:52,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, and for what it's worth. I mean, you know 392 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 3: the books know this as well, so they will be 393 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:58,920 Speaker 3: priced very much that way. Evans was a good one. 394 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 3: I mean there's also like career milestones. And I'll mention 395 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 3: this a little bit later, but Josh Allen, you know, 396 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 3: needs a rushing touchdown to make some history in Buffalo. Like, 397 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 3: there's all sorts of different things that might get in 398 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 3: the coach's ear with one week to go, but we 399 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 3: can talk about that when we get there. So Indy 400 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:17,880 Speaker 3: and the Giants is the next game on the schedule, 401 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 3: So the Giants upset the Colts forty five thirty three 402 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,880 Speaker 3: as seven and a half point home underdogs. Total goes 403 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 3: over forty and a half. My only real note here 404 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 3: is we knew there was gonna be one of these, 405 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,399 Speaker 3: Like with all these kind of spreads on the board 406 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,120 Speaker 3: and all these teams who needed to win, you always 407 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:39,199 Speaker 3: find one who lays the big egg. And this was 408 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 3: just completely it. The Colts defense ends up being the 409 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 3: biggest issue. You know, Allowing forty five points to Drew 410 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,919 Speaker 3: Lock is a massive problem. And the Giants had seven 411 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 3: point three yards per play, thirteen point four yards per attempt. 412 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:57,919 Speaker 3: I mean, that is absolutely bonkers. Locke has four touchdowns, 413 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 3: no picks, and three hundred plus passing you know cards 414 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 3: and this is again just on Gus Bradley. Twenty four 415 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 3: plus points allowed in seven straight games for the Colts. 416 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 3: And that's forty five to the Giants, thirty to the Titans, 417 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:12,880 Speaker 3: thirty one of the Broncos in twenty four to New 418 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:18,119 Speaker 3: England in their last four Colts eliminated. Giants also out 419 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 3: with the number one pick. What do you think about 420 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 3: the Colts here? I mean that's probably the takeaway is, like, 421 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:25,120 Speaker 3: what is Indy even doing. 422 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's crazy, and just they still gave Jonathan Taylor 423 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,120 Speaker 2: thirty two rushing attempts despite trailing most of the game, 424 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 2: so they obviously don't feel good about Joe Flacco or 425 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 2: I guess the passing attack in general, because last week 426 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 2: I think Richardson attempted or eleven passes all game, thirteen passes, 427 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 2: something crazy like that. And then also just hilarious that 428 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 2: the Giants first home win in seven years or whatever 429 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 2: it costs a draft pick, like, of course that's the 430 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,400 Speaker 2: one you win, right is, when by all accounts, would 431 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,439 Speaker 2: be better if you lose that this performance notwithstanding, I 432 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 2: don't think they're viewing Drew Locke as their franchise quarterback. 433 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 2: So obviously not a great thing for the Giants to 434 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 2: win this game. 435 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,199 Speaker 3: Terrible and from your incentive point of view, though, it 436 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 3: did feel like they were trying to get the ball 437 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,199 Speaker 3: the Neighbors here, and I think Neighbors is kind of 438 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,400 Speaker 3: on the tail of Bowers for some of these records, 439 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 3: and obviously I think he's a little back. I haven't 440 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 3: looked at the updated numbers, but it did feel like 441 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 3: Neighbors was getting maybe a few more looks they played 442 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 3: Philly next week. 443 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 2: I believe. 444 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 3: I believe Philly has literally nothing to play for their 445 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,919 Speaker 3: three and a half point favorites in that game, the 446 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 3: Eagles at home. So maybe just an opportunity there for 447 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,640 Speaker 3: some more neighbors. All right, let's keep rolling here. Miami 448 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,879 Speaker 3: at Cleveland. So Miami wins the game twenty to three 449 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 3: in Cleveland as a three point road favorite. Total goes 450 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 3: under thirty two. 451 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:42,120 Speaker 2: And a half. 452 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 3: Thirty two and a half. Unbelievable the game. This one's 453 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 3: pretty simple. So the game had twenty penalties and twenty 454 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 3: three points, and that was exactly how the game felt 455 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 3: the entire time. It was pretty terrible, except for Tyreek Hill, 456 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 3: who goes for nine receptions in one hundred and five yards, 457 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,479 Speaker 3: second most receptions in the game this year, only his 458 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 3: third one hundred yard game, but it felt like he 459 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 3: had the opportunity to do well here Cleveland, at least 460 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 3: from DVOA perspective. Struggles against number one wide receivers. I 461 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,159 Speaker 3: think we preferred hunt Lee to Skyler in terms of 462 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 3: trying to get Tyreek the ball. But listen, Miami six 463 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,159 Speaker 3: and two in their last eight. Their defense has been 464 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 3: pretty good. Yes, DT are today, but facing Purty facing 465 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 3: Stroud allowing twenty or less points than those. I mean, 466 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 3: that's kind of the situation. I mean, Cleveland goes zero 467 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 3: and three in the red zone, Miami goes two for two, 468 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,679 Speaker 3: and that feels like the entire game. The only thing 469 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 3: I'll say before tossing it to you, I believe two 470 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 3: is questionable next week, says McDaniel. Entering the week, they 471 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 3: are minus two and a half. I believe. Yeah, minus 472 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 3: two and a half at the Jets. And we saw 473 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 3: what happened with the Jets today, so we and that's 474 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 3: in met life, Sony. Any thoughts here, Billy. 475 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's an interesting you'd have to imagine with everything 476 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 2: on the line, that Tua gets out there because he 477 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 2: was supposed to play until on Thursday or something this week. Yeah, 478 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 2: now that was an interesting one. Other note, I think 479 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 2: the Browns going to DTR is kind of one of 480 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 2: the more blatant tankings I've seen in a recent memory. 481 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 2: You know, the narrative is they want to get a 482 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:19,959 Speaker 2: look at them and see what they have for the future. 483 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 2: They know what they have and Dorit and Thompson Robinson 484 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 2: right like if they were playing to win these games, 485 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:26,920 Speaker 2: Jameis Winston would be out there, we'd all be having 486 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 2: more fun with it. But they're they're playing for a 487 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 2: draft pick, not to win the games here, and it's 488 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 2: the right move, it's obviously what you should do. But yeah, 489 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,320 Speaker 2: that was my read on the Browns here is they 490 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 2: don't want to win these games. 491 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 3: I mean, all you have to know abillity is like 492 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 3: Jamis threw for five hundred yards and dtr in his 493 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 3: five starts, has thirty seven total points. I mean, I 494 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 3: think they know what they have with both of those quarterbacks. 495 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 3: It's just one hundred percent tanking and we would rather 496 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 3: see Jamis play some football, all right, Jets at the Bills. 497 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 3: So Buffalo wins this game forty to fourteen as a 498 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 3: ten point home favorite. Total goes over forty four. There's 499 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 3: really not many forty to fourteen games that actually felt 500 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 3: like it was more of a blowout than the final score. 501 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,679 Speaker 3: But that's exactly what this was. This was an absolute disaster. 502 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 3: And if you go back to last week with the 503 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,119 Speaker 3: Rams game looked like and I added this up, I 504 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 3: believe Aaron Rodgers had fourteen drives between the Rams and 505 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 3: Buffalo game without a touchdown and then the first drive, 506 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,920 Speaker 3: Tyrod comes in, goes down the field for seventy five 507 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:34,119 Speaker 3: yards and a touchdown drive. And even in the postgame 508 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 3: press conference, Billy Rodgers basically said at thirty three to nothing, 509 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,160 Speaker 3: he gave up and said, Tyrod just go into the game. 510 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 3: So I have zero idea how this is going to 511 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 3: play out. I mean, maybe he'll start, maybe he won't 512 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:50,240 Speaker 3: next week. But this is the eighth game where the 513 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 3: Jets have scored twenty points or less. They've lost all 514 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 3: eight games, and their defense since they fired Sala thirty 515 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 3: first in the EPA per play thirtieth and dropped EPA, 516 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,879 Speaker 3: they just flat out stink and got kind of just 517 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 3: embarrassed today. The other record I was referring to earlier 518 00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 3: before I toss it to you believe Josh Allen is 519 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,879 Speaker 3: a rushing touchdown away from the Bills franchise record. I 520 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,159 Speaker 3: don't even know how that's possible, but I just read that, 521 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 3: passing Therman Thomas at this point through seven seasons. But 522 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 3: that might be some sort of motivation. You might play 523 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,880 Speaker 3: the first drive next week. I know McDermott's gonna try 524 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 3: to sit a bunch of people, but what's your thought here, 525 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 3: if anything on this masterpiece, it's funny. 526 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:34,879 Speaker 2: I thought you were going to bring up another record. 527 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 2: I think Aaron Rodgers is at four hundred and ninety nine. 528 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 2: Well yeah, yeah, and he threw I want to say 529 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 2: the two hundredth and three hundredths for both the DeVante 530 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 2: Adams or something in there, something to that effect. I 531 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised. I think Adams left the game with 532 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 2: the injury at one point, but it didn't seem too serious. 533 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if they come out and try 534 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 2: to get that connection one more time, just to get 535 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 2: five hundred and then set both those guys. But Rogers 536 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 2: has made it pretty clear he wants out. They fired 537 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 2: the wrong person, right. The defense was not the problem. 538 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,239 Speaker 2: Their defense was great earlier in the year when they 539 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 2: fired Salad. So yeah, not looking great for New York 540 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 2: football in general, but at least the Giants are kind 541 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,680 Speaker 2: of fun and give you some hope. I know Buffalo's 542 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 2: in New York too, but New York City, I should say. 543 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say. But the other part that 544 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:24,399 Speaker 3: I saw funny today was the fact that you know, 545 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,000 Speaker 3: if Rogers, if the Giants blew the top few picks. 546 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:29,840 Speaker 3: Maybe Rodgers can just stay in the metal lands and 547 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 3: go play for the Giants next year. He'd look great 548 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:37,120 Speaker 3: with Malik Neighbors. That is half a joke. Okay, Cowboys 549 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:41,199 Speaker 3: at the Eagles. Eagles win the game forty one to seven, 550 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,159 Speaker 3: as seven and a half point favorites total goes over 551 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 3: thirty seven and a half the fund oute here, which 552 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 3: kind of ended up coming true even without Hurt. So 553 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,679 Speaker 3: the Cowboys Eagles games kind of go the way of 554 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 3: the favorite over the last decade. The favor in the 555 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 3: series is sixteen and four straight up and against the spread, 556 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 3: eight and three with Philly, eight and one with Dallas. 557 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 3: I mean I heard earlier went on the Favors with 558 00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:08,919 Speaker 3: Simon and Chad. They were kind of talking about Cooper 559 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 3: Rush and the fact that like he is formidable, and 560 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,919 Speaker 3: I believe at times he is. The thing that I 561 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 3: struggle with is since he's gotten like the main workload 562 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 3: this year since Week nine, twenty seventh, thirtieth and thirty 563 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 3: fourth EPA per play success rate, completion percentage over expected, 564 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,560 Speaker 3: he's just and obviously no CD Lamb right, which I 565 00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 3: think is a large part of a missing offense here, 566 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 3: and kind of what Dallas is going through. At least 567 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,080 Speaker 3: in this game against Philly, I think it would have 568 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 3: been nice to have a big playmaker in there, But 569 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:44,680 Speaker 3: aside from that, I don't think we really learned much 570 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 3: Philly's dominant. Dallas wants to get to the offseason. Kenny 571 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 3: Pickett played, Okay, it looks like the Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, 572 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 3: and Texans are at least as I'm now a little 573 00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,480 Speaker 3: bit earlier, the team's with nothing to lose or gain 574 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 3: week eighteen, So, like we talked about earlier, Eagles minus 575 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,680 Speaker 3: three and a half. But I'm pretty sure that you're 576 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:06,920 Speaker 3: not going to see many guys. 577 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,720 Speaker 2: The only thing I'd say on that is with Hurts 578 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:11,639 Speaker 2: missing you know, a week and a half at this point, 579 00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,200 Speaker 2: I don't know that they want him that out of 580 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,159 Speaker 2: rhythm and sitting out three weeks in a row. I 581 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 2: would actually expect to see maybe like a half or 582 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 2: so of Jalen Hurts next week. Looking ahead obviously way 583 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 2: too early for player props and stuff like that. Looking 584 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 2: at some unders on Hurts if they get him in 585 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,120 Speaker 2: the game, but he doesn't play a full complement of snaps, 586 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,360 Speaker 2: I think that's interesting. Typically you don't want more than 587 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,679 Speaker 2: one week off. I hear it coaches say in season, 588 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 2: you know they don't want to do the double bye 589 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 2: week if they lock up the one seed early. Stuff 590 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 2: like that is sometimes a concern. So I bet we 591 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 2: see a little bit of Jalen Hurts, maybe a little 592 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 2: bit of Patrick Mahomes Beinano. He's doing next week for 593 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 2: similar reasons. 594 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 3: Which is interesting because there are first half lines out 595 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,520 Speaker 3: at a few books, and I think I see Philly 596 00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 3: minus two and a half first half, which, if if 597 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 3: you're right, is an inch line against the Giants team, 598 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 3: even a Giants team scored forty five points today. But 599 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,239 Speaker 3: it's a bit of a different Philly situation. All right, 600 00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:12,880 Speaker 3: let's keep rolling here. Raiders at the Saints. So the 601 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 3: Raiders win this game twenty five to ten in New 602 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 3: Orleans as two point favorites. Total goes under thirty seven 603 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,719 Speaker 3: and a half. I'm gonna keep this pretty short. I 604 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 3: remember hearing late last night and this morning that the 605 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,480 Speaker 3: Raiders were the last flight out. They got stuck on 606 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,360 Speaker 3: the tarmac and it took them literally forever to get 607 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 3: to New Orleans, and it absolutely meant nothing because they 608 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 3: were the only road team to win at one o'clock 609 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 3: on Sunday today. So Saints just literally couldn't get anything 610 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 3: rolling on offense. Bowers does everything he does and does 611 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,600 Speaker 3: it again. He had five plus catches now in eight 612 00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 3: of nine road games. He has broken Dick's record. He 613 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 3: broke Pooka's record, and that's kind of what neighbors felt 614 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,959 Speaker 3: like he was going after a little bit. But an 615 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 3: incredible season and he's been much better with O'Connell back there, 616 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 3: which I think he kind of saw today versus Minshew. 617 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,719 Speaker 3: But anything else on Saints Raiders. 618 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,360 Speaker 2: It's just crazy looking back to Week two when the 619 00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 2: Saints had scored ninety one points in two games and 620 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 2: we were talking about how great this offense was. Obviously, 621 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 2: injury is a huge part of it. They lost pretty 622 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 2: much every confident, skill position player they had. But yeah, 623 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,480 Speaker 2: just a weird season for the Saints. I feel like 624 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 2: it's been three different years for them. It's a good point. 625 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 3: And after Week two everyone was talking about how they 626 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 3: reinvented the play action right like it was something we 627 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,480 Speaker 3: had never seen before, and Derek Carr was doing things. Yeah, 628 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 3: that feels like at least two seasons ago. All right, 629 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:46,960 Speaker 3: one game left here, Tennessee at Jacksonville. Jacksonville beats the 630 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 3: Titans twenty to thirteen. Actually a little tight at the 631 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:55,520 Speaker 3: end there. Tennessee ends up closing minus one, so they 632 00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:58,880 Speaker 3: end up losing the cover and the total goes under 633 00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 3: thirty eight and a half. Story here as simple to 634 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 3: Titans now two and fourteen against the spread this season. 635 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,720 Speaker 3: That is the worst record for any team in the 636 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,880 Speaker 3: Super Bowl era. We haven't seen any team lose fourteen 637 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,840 Speaker 3: covers in a single season. Mason Rudolph goes zero to 638 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 3: five ats entering this week, Will Levis two to nine 639 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 3: against the spread. That's how they got there. But listen, 640 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 3: Tennessee just felt like they're just giving the game away. 641 00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 3: And Calvin Ridley didn't seem to have the game. I 642 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:32,000 Speaker 3: think we all thought he might in a revenge spot. 643 00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 3: But just two teams that want to get to the offseason. 644 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was impressed by Brian Thomas. Think the Jaguars 645 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 2: have something there. But outside of that, not a lot 646 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 2: to be excited about for either team. We'll see what 647 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 2: the Jaguars look like if they kind of keep the 648 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 2: band back together with Trevor Lawrence. But it was promising 649 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 2: a couple of years ago we were talking about the 650 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 2: Jaguars and the Lions with the two ascenic teams, and 651 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:58,040 Speaker 2: it's gone very different directions since then. Again, injuries happened, 652 00:31:58,040 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 2: but even when he was playing this year, I don't 653 00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,200 Speaker 2: think Trevor Lawrence is what we hoped you would be. 654 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 3: Definitely not as of yet. And it's a good call 655 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 3: on Thomas. I believe he is leading all rookies and 656 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,480 Speaker 3: receiving yards, which we had given out early in the 657 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,200 Speaker 3: year on action Eric, I know I have him at 658 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,480 Speaker 3: sixteen to one, so hopefully he can hold on with 659 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 3: that one with one week to go. All right, let's 660 00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:33,160 Speaker 3: talk Monday Night football. Now Detroit and San Francisco. Now 661 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:38,200 Speaker 3: this game doesn't mean what it could have potentially. Detroit 662 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 3: really doesn't need this for anything. San Francisco obviously has 663 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 3: been eliminated. The one bet that I made and I 664 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,560 Speaker 3: put it in the app, is I like Ricky Piersoll 665 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:49,960 Speaker 3: over nineteen and a half receiving yards. We have bet 666 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:53,360 Speaker 3: him in previous weeks over this mark. I also ended 667 00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,160 Speaker 3: up taking the nineteen and a half when I logged 668 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,640 Speaker 3: it because I saw the market moving from twenty to 669 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 3: twenty one and a half a good matchup for him, 670 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,320 Speaker 3: and I see him getting more targets recently, and I 671 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 3: think at this point San Francisco more trying to see 672 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 3: what they have in a few of these players versus 673 00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,080 Speaker 3: trying to force it to anyone to try to get 674 00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,360 Speaker 3: people hurt. So I do think he's gonna get some 675 00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:18,960 Speaker 3: looks here. The one motivational factor which is pretty obvious 676 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 3: which might lead to Campbell playing more starters or actually 677 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,800 Speaker 3: trying to win this one is obviously the lines losing 678 00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:27,320 Speaker 3: to the forty nine ers in a dramatic fashion in 679 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 3: their last game in the NFC Championship Game, and the 680 00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,280 Speaker 3: fact that listen there, I look this up two and 681 00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 3: seventeen in their last nineteen versus San Francisco. So they 682 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 3: have really struggled with this team. So maybe that is 683 00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 3: something that eats at Campbell a little bit. And from 684 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 3: San Francisco's point of view, before I toss it to you, 685 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:51,640 Speaker 3: Billy two in thirteen against the spread this year in 686 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 3: the second half three and sixteen second half ats last 687 00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 3: nineteen games, So they have really really struggled to close 688 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 3: the door in the second half. And this Lions team 689 00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,840 Speaker 3: is kind of ruthless if they're bringing everyone out. But 690 00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:07,040 Speaker 3: you have any thoughts. 691 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 2: Here, Yeah, a Ton actually obviously is a Lions fan. Here. 692 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,960 Speaker 2: The last time we had kind of a similar revenge 693 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 2: spot was when the Lions played the Cowboys in October. 694 00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,080 Speaker 2: There was the whole thing last year with the tackle 695 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,759 Speaker 2: that maybe reported as eligible, maybe didn't. Lions came out 696 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,480 Speaker 2: and won that game against Dallas forty seven to nine, 697 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,320 Speaker 2: just destroyed them. If you know anything about Dan Campbell, 698 00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:32,000 Speaker 2: if you followed this team at all, they're not gonna 699 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,239 Speaker 2: let let up off the gas. I don't think they 700 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,719 Speaker 2: want to coming into a crucial Week eighteen game and 701 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,920 Speaker 2: break that rhythm. I really like the Lions. I like 702 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,400 Speaker 2: the Lions spread I put in our show sheet. I 703 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 2: like alt spreads up to six and a half from 704 00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,120 Speaker 2: a matchup standpoint. San Francisco's kind of a run funnel. 705 00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,760 Speaker 2: So if the Lions get a lead here, they're gonna 706 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,320 Speaker 2: just pound the rock and be able to control the 707 00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 2: game expand that lead. Not only is Trent Williams out 708 00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,280 Speaker 2: for the forty nine ers, Trent williams backup is out, 709 00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:00,800 Speaker 2: and their right tackle didn't log a PRES this all week. 710 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,200 Speaker 2: We're not super worried about the Lions defensive line with 711 00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,480 Speaker 2: all that, gonna be hard for the forty nine ers 712 00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,239 Speaker 2: to play from behind here if they're missing their three 713 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,720 Speaker 2: best offensive tackles. And then funny you should mention Piersall. 714 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,800 Speaker 2: I've done some prize picks content the same game. Parlay 715 00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 2: included him in both of those. His target rate more 716 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,560 Speaker 2: than doubles against man defense, and the Lions play man 717 00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 2: at the highest rate in the league by a huge margin. 718 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 2: Like a lot of that man versone stuff is kind 719 00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 2: of overblown because most teams play zone at such a 720 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,279 Speaker 2: high rate, Detroit's one of the few exceptions where it 721 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 2: really makes a difference. He's like, I think they're only 722 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,719 Speaker 2: wide receiver who sees a significant boost and target chair. 723 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,799 Speaker 2: So I'm all over Rocky Piersall. Also for the let's 724 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,239 Speaker 2: see what we've got reasons you mentioned, But I like 725 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,799 Speaker 2: the Lions to cover. I like Lions alt spreads, even 726 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:47,680 Speaker 2: Lions second half stuff, because if they get a lead, 727 00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,080 Speaker 2: they're just gonna play. You know, there's gonna be a 728 00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,760 Speaker 2: snowball rolling downhill once they get out in front. 729 00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I admit, I'm sure you're aware of this, but 730 00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,399 Speaker 3: this status absolutely blows my mind. So over the last 731 00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,799 Speaker 3: three seasons, the Lions are thirty eight thirteen and one 732 00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:05,719 Speaker 3: against the first half spread to seventy five percent, So like, 733 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,680 Speaker 3: forget all the cover stuff that they're about and how 734 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,520 Speaker 3: Campbell's done, and you know, the last few years they're 735 00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 3: kind of on record pace. That first half number just 736 00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:18,279 Speaker 3: absolutely blows me away. So we will see how that goes. 737 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,280 Speaker 3: Right now, the spread in that game is only minus 738 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,799 Speaker 3: three for Detroit, so I think they're expecting San Francisco 739 00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,719 Speaker 3: to kind of play everyone and fight as much as possible. 740 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,400 Speaker 3: All right, Before we wrap up, let's hear from Patrick 741 00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,640 Speaker 3: Everson from Vegas Insiders and how things looked in Las Vegas. 742 00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,560 Speaker 1: All right, Evan, thanks a lot for having me back 743 00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:40,480 Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast as we recap NFL Week 744 00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,400 Speaker 1: seventeen Odds and Actions. Still got a game to go, 745 00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,200 Speaker 1: and obviously one that's going to be pretty heavily bet 746 00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,120 Speaker 1: between the Lions and the forty nine ers, so though 747 00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:49,319 Speaker 1: a lot of that action is going to go to 748 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:51,880 Speaker 1: one side, which we'll touch on in just a couple 749 00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:55,320 Speaker 1: of minutes here, but recapping the week that was, Look, 750 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,040 Speaker 1: this has been the story of the last two and 751 00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,640 Speaker 1: a half months, maybe even a little bit longer than that. 752 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,920 Speaker 1: In the end fl on. That is, favorites winning straight 753 00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,840 Speaker 1: up at a really consistent basis and generally winning against 754 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:09,120 Speaker 1: the spread, maybe not quite as consistently, but certainly enough 755 00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:12,040 Speaker 1: to keep the public more than a float. The public 756 00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:17,840 Speaker 1: betting masses so far in week seventeen, if my calculations 757 00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:19,640 Speaker 1: are correct, you got thirteen and two straight up for 758 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,480 Speaker 1: the favorites, thirteen to two straight up for the favorites, 759 00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,719 Speaker 1: and eleven and four against the spread for the favorites. 760 00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,680 Speaker 1: Christmas Day was really good to the favorites. You get 761 00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,000 Speaker 1: a winning cover out of the Chiefs real easy, and 762 00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,040 Speaker 1: a winning cover out of the Ravens real easily. That 763 00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:38,960 Speaker 1: was popular the three Saturday games, with all three favorites winning. Granted, 764 00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,759 Speaker 1: the Rams did not cover, but had a couple of 765 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:43,640 Speaker 1: different odds makers tell me that there was a bunch 766 00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 1: of moneyline parlays just stringing the favorites together with the 767 00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:54,560 Speaker 1: Chargers Cincinnati, and in the nightcap the Rams who barely 768 00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 1: held on against the Cardinals. You know, John Murray said 769 00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,560 Speaker 1: that that. John Murray the super Book said that Broncos 770 00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:04,399 Speaker 1: Bengals result right in the middle of those three games 771 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,000 Speaker 1: Saturday was particularly disappointing because there was all sorts of 772 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,880 Speaker 1: opportunities for Denver to cover that number. If Cincinnati had 773 00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:12,600 Speaker 1: just won by a field goal, they could have won 774 00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,680 Speaker 1: by a field goal in regulation and basically run out 775 00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:16,279 Speaker 1: the clock doing so. They could have won by a 776 00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,040 Speaker 1: field goal in overtime, but they jointed it off the upright. 777 00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,719 Speaker 1: Denver ultimately could have played for a tie, and if 778 00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:24,520 Speaker 1: it had been a tie, it would have went under 779 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:26,239 Speaker 1: and Denver would have covered, which would have been a 780 00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:27,920 Speaker 1: great outcome, not only for the super book, but I'm 781 00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,800 Speaker 1: sure for several other books keeping that game under the total. 782 00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:34,680 Speaker 1: But instead the Bengals get a touchdown, the total goes over, 783 00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,880 Speaker 1: the Bengals cover, so a great result for the public, 784 00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,759 Speaker 1: a rough result for the books. And then John Murray 785 00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:43,120 Speaker 1: added up that Saturday night game Arizona was at the 786 00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,640 Speaker 1: five yard line looking to beat La outright on the 787 00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:50,000 Speaker 1: road and had a deflected ball end up getting intercepted, 788 00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:54,200 Speaker 1: so the Rams win salvage all those money line parlays, 789 00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,880 Speaker 1: and again multiple odds makers, the super book, South Point 790 00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,520 Speaker 1: and certainly the big books nationwide had moneyline Harley's run 791 00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:03,560 Speaker 1: into all three favorites on Saturday betam gyms and DraftKings 792 00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,600 Speaker 1: of the world and so forth, so good for the 793 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,239 Speaker 1: public there and Sunday generally good for the public. A 794 00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,480 Speaker 1: lot of favorites obviously came through with that, with the 795 00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:13,640 Speaker 1: record they had again thirteen and two straight up through 796 00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:17,480 Speaker 1: fifteen games this week, eleven and four against the spread. However, 797 00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:23,560 Speaker 1: the New York Football Giants, who should be probably playing 798 00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,240 Speaker 1: for the number one pick in the draft, decided to 799 00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:30,040 Speaker 1: get up off the mat beat the Indianapolis Colts outright 800 00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:33,160 Speaker 1: forty five to thirty three. Blew up a ton of 801 00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:37,000 Speaker 1: money line parlays and teasers, probably as well at sports 802 00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,759 Speaker 1: books across the land. It's not that the Colts were 803 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,040 Speaker 1: a hugely popular play, but they were certainly seen, as 804 00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 1: you know, as a good spot in a money line parlay, 805 00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:47,880 Speaker 1: and as it turned out, they were a bad spot 806 00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:50,360 Speaker 1: in a money line parlay. And that's what helped the 807 00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:54,360 Speaker 1: books kind of weather the storm. Even though again a 808 00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:57,320 Speaker 1: lot of favorites did get there straight up and against 809 00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:02,400 Speaker 1: the spread this week, so that surprising outcome for sure, 810 00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:04,960 Speaker 1: and the Colts were playing for a playoff spot. The 811 00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,239 Speaker 1: Giants hadn't won a home game all season, and this 812 00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:10,080 Speaker 1: was their last chance to do so, and they do it. 813 00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:14,040 Speaker 1: So again that's a result that works out well. Packers 814 00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:16,880 Speaker 1: were kind of a look. That game was right around 815 00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:18,920 Speaker 1: pick most of the time. The Packers were favored, the 816 00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,680 Speaker 1: Vikes were favored. It was pick them ultimately, I think 817 00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:23,560 Speaker 1: the Vikes went off at one or one and a 818 00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:27,160 Speaker 1: half one on one and a half point favorites. But 819 00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:30,280 Speaker 1: the Packers were a trendy dog if that was the case, 820 00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,759 Speaker 1: and the Vikings won in covered in that game. So 821 00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,200 Speaker 1: that was one that certainly felt the book's way as well. 822 00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:39,480 Speaker 1: Even though the more popular side was the Packers, they 823 00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:42,400 Speaker 1: weren't necessarily the favorite by the time that game kicked 824 00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,120 Speaker 1: off depending on where he shopped, So that one, I know, 825 00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,040 Speaker 1: worked out well for a couple of different sports books 826 00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:50,400 Speaker 1: nationally and also here in Vegas. The super books certainly 827 00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:54,560 Speaker 1: enjoyed that one as well. And then you know, of 828 00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:56,840 Speaker 1: course the Sunday night game, the Commanders are going to 829 00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:58,719 Speaker 1: be popular coming off that went over the Eagles. They 830 00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,920 Speaker 1: looked great against the Eagles and played a really exhilarating 831 00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,560 Speaker 1: game against the Falcons on Sunday night. Most books needed Atlanta. 832 00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,000 Speaker 1: The Commanders were definitely a popular play. They needed Atlanta 833 00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,280 Speaker 1: to cover that three and a half, and the Commanders, 834 00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,399 Speaker 1: by getting the touchdown and overtime obviously went and cover there. 835 00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,080 Speaker 1: So that was one where the public did well also, 836 00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,759 Speaker 1: So again overall, probably not a bad week for the 837 00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,040 Speaker 1: betting public, but it wasn't like a blood letting for 838 00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:23,719 Speaker 1: the sports books either. They did well by blowing up 839 00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:26,120 Speaker 1: those mondayline parleys and teasers. Chris Andrews at the South 840 00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:28,280 Speaker 1: Point said, we finally had a dog, and a big 841 00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,239 Speaker 1: dog at that, in the form of the New York 842 00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,960 Speaker 1: Giants win a game outright, which is something they've been 843 00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:36,440 Speaker 1: brooting for for weeks and perhaps even months and have 844 00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:39,080 Speaker 1: not been able to get now looking ahead to the 845 00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:42,000 Speaker 1: Monday night game, when they first scheduled this game lines 846 00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:45,040 Speaker 1: against forty nine Ers Monday Night Football Week seventeen, the 847 00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:46,959 Speaker 1: last Monday Night football game of the season, they probably 848 00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:49,239 Speaker 1: thought this is going to be awesome, a rematch of 849 00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:53,120 Speaker 1: the NFC Championship game of last year. Well it's not awesome. 850 00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:55,719 Speaker 1: The Niners have been banged up all season, having a 851 00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:58,000 Speaker 1: very disappointing year, are not going to go to the playoffs. 852 00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:03,920 Speaker 1: At BETMGM heading into Sunday, they put numbers out on Sunday, 853 00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,280 Speaker 1: ninety four percent of straight spread bets, ninety five percent 854 00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:11,759 Speaker 1: of straight spread money on this game falling on the 855 00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,719 Speaker 1: Detroit Lions, who have obviously been a juggernaut against the 856 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,160 Speaker 1: spread and straight up for that matter, for the last 857 00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:20,799 Speaker 1: two plus seasons. And if you jump over to DraftKings 858 00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:22,920 Speaker 1: just to see if there's any difference, the answer is no. 859 00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:26,759 Speaker 1: Ninety one percent of spread bets at DraftKings, ninety five 860 00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,600 Speaker 1: percent of spread handle at Draft Kings landing on the 861 00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,080 Speaker 1: Detroit Lions for this Monday light, Monday night game. So 862 00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,120 Speaker 1: the public is all over the lines. The books are 863 00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:36,839 Speaker 1: definitely going to need the San Francisco forty nine ers, 864 00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:40,480 Speaker 1: and again the last Monday night game of the twenty 865 00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:42,959 Speaker 1: twenty four to twenty five season. No Monday night game 866 00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,480 Speaker 1: in Week eighteen, so they're having a little recap of 867 00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,400 Speaker 1: NFL Week seventeen odds in action. Look forward to talking 868 00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,640 Speaker 1: to you next week with the playoffs getting set and 869 00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:54,760 Speaker 1: definitely some very interesting games on the schedule. 870 00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:57,680 Speaker 3: All right, Well, that has been Week seventeen. You got 871 00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:00,040 Speaker 3: anything else to add there, Bill, Yeah, No. 872 00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,120 Speaker 2: That's it for me. I'm kind of looking ahead to 873 00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:04,640 Speaker 2: Week eighteen as a Lions fan for Lions Vikings's gonna 874 00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:04,919 Speaker 2: be fun. 875 00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:08,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, honestly, we've got a few of the 876 00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:11,239 Speaker 3: playoff spots kind of been decided here. Not a ton 877 00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:14,959 Speaker 3: of drama next week, but Bengals Steelers ends up being 878 00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,600 Speaker 3: like a really good game for a few things. And 879 00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:21,200 Speaker 3: again I think everyone's looking forward to Minnesota and Detroit, 880 00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,799 Speaker 3: so a full. We got some Saturday games, then some 881 00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:28,000 Speaker 3: Sunday games, and all of a sudden, the playoffs are here. 882 00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:30,480 Speaker 3: So we will be back. We have Best Bets episodes 883 00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:33,239 Speaker 3: this week and Brandon will be back for a bunch 884 00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,480 Speaker 3: of that stuff, and then we have the recap episode 885 00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:39,279 Speaker 3: as well next Sunday night, where we will kind of 886 00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,720 Speaker 3: talk about everything that happened in week eighteen and preview 887 00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:45,120 Speaker 3: some of the playoff matchups and talk some stats and 888 00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:49,320 Speaker 3: different look aheads there with Brandon. But thanks everybody for listening, 889 00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:52,719 Speaker 3: and I am Evan Abrams that is Billy Ward, and 890 00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,160 Speaker 3: tune in this week for all of our action and 891 00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:57,960 Speaker 3: check out actionnetwork dot com and the Action Network app 892 00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:06,400 Speaker 3: for all of our articles and enjoyed the sleep. 893 00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:21,239 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or 894 00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:24,040 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is 895 00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:27,160 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler