WEBVTT - The Returns: Project X 0:00:16.115 --> 0:00:24.675 Pushkin. One Saturday in November twenty twenty, I was buying 0:00:24.715 --> 0:00:27.395 shoes in Brooklyn. Crazy, I know, but this is a 0:00:27.395 --> 0:00:30.115 true story. They were running shoes. Did I run with 0:00:30.155 --> 0:00:33.875 them hardly? Ever, But that's not important. What's important is 0:00:34.115 --> 0:00:36.235 I was at the store trying on some hokahs I 0:00:36.315 --> 0:00:38.915 later came to regret. And then a crazy thing happened. 0:00:39.355 --> 0:00:40.995 A good friend of mine pulled up in a car 0:00:41.035 --> 0:00:43.515 out front. He had just that very day moved back 0:00:43.555 --> 0:00:45.475 to New York. And then as he got out of 0:00:45.515 --> 0:00:48.715 the car, people all over the streets suddenly raised their windows, 0:00:48.795 --> 0:00:51.235 leaned out of them, and began to scream and hag 0:00:51.315 --> 0:00:54.315 on pots and pans. I was like, whoa, you should 0:00:54.315 --> 0:00:57.915 try moving away more often. But then I checked my phone, 0:00:58.035 --> 0:01:00.755 and remember I was in Brooklyn. I realized that the 0:01:00.795 --> 0:01:03.995 election had just been called for Joe Biden. It was 0:01:04.035 --> 0:01:09.835 November seventh, twenty twenty. But here's the twist this it 0:01:09.955 --> 0:01:15.035 was four days after the election happened. You may remember 0:01:15.155 --> 0:01:18.515 the agonizingly long time between election day twenty twenty and 0:01:18.555 --> 0:01:21.555 the announcement of the final result. If you're a younger person, 0:01:21.635 --> 0:01:24.035 this might have felt very novel to you. It felt 0:01:24.075 --> 0:01:27.555 pretty novel to me. Generally, in my lifetime, elections were 0:01:27.595 --> 0:01:30.915 decided sometime overnight on election day or into the next morning, 0:01:30.915 --> 0:01:33.515 when a tired Wolfplitzer would est at a GLITCHI map 0:01:33.795 --> 0:01:36.715 and say that CNN could finally make a projection. But 0:01:36.955 --> 0:01:39.355 for a long time, it took a long time to 0:01:39.355 --> 0:01:42.795 call elections. The country is big, counting votes by hand 0:01:42.875 --> 0:01:46.475 is slow, and then reporting them is laborious. There wasn't 0:01:46.555 --> 0:01:50.635 one single election day until eighteen forty five. The eighteen 0:01:50.715 --> 0:01:54.875 seventy six election wasn't called till eighteen seventy seven. Quick 0:01:54.915 --> 0:01:58.035 calls like the famous Dewey defeats Truman case of nineteen 0:01:58.155 --> 0:02:01.635 forty eight were easy to get wrong. But that changed 0:02:01.675 --> 0:02:06.275 in a meaningful way in nineteen fifty two. Seeing as 0:02:06.275 --> 0:02:08.475 it's an election year in fact, you might be receiving 0:02:08.515 --> 0:02:12.275 with some trepidation, we overhear at the last Archive are 0:02:12.315 --> 0:02:15.075 digging through our own archives to bring you a mini 0:02:15.115 --> 0:02:19.915 season rehashing our past election coverage. Today, I want to 0:02:19.955 --> 0:02:23.715 take you back to that election night nineteen fifty two, Eisenhower, 0:02:23.795 --> 0:02:26.875 Varus Stevenson and the quantum leap, and how we ran 0:02:27.115 --> 0:02:33.275 and called elections. This was the first election to be 0:02:33.315 --> 0:02:36.915 predicted by computer, the moment we really leaned into our 0:02:36.915 --> 0:02:40.235 need for speed. What's interesting about that election and the 0:02:40.275 --> 0:02:45.195 marriage of computing power, polling, advertising, and electoral politics is 0:02:45.195 --> 0:02:49.235 that it accelerated a trend towards putting our faith in predictions, 0:02:49.675 --> 0:02:51.555 as if you almost didn't need to hold an election 0:02:51.635 --> 0:02:54.355 at all, but that with enough data you could just 0:02:54.395 --> 0:03:01.035 simulate the outcome data simulation, massive computers. Election Night sounds 0:03:01.035 --> 0:03:04.675 like a job for the last archive. So let's go 0:03:04.755 --> 0:03:07.355 back to twenty twenty when we made this episode from 0:03:07.355 --> 0:03:10.155 our first season, and then even further back to the 0:03:10.195 --> 0:03:13.475 election of nineteen fifty two and the emergence of a 0:03:13.515 --> 0:03:17.075 new way to run and to call elections. Oh and 0:03:17.155 --> 0:03:19.595 one last thing before we get into it. You'll hear 0:03:19.635 --> 0:03:22.635 in the episode from the historian Ira Chenoi who wrote 0:03:22.675 --> 0:03:25.835 a dissertation called Battle of the Brains on the Computers 0:03:25.875 --> 0:03:29.635 of Election Night nineteen fifty two. Well, that dissertation is 0:03:29.675 --> 0:03:32.755 about to be a book out in May called Predicting 0:03:32.835 --> 0:03:36.515 the Winner. Okay, from our first season, first published in 0:03:36.515 --> 0:03:40.235 the summer of twenty twenty, here's Project X. 0:03:41.715 --> 0:03:44.595 There's a place in our world where the known things 0:03:44.675 --> 0:03:49.435 go a quarter of the mind, lined with shelves, stocked 0:03:49.435 --> 0:03:56.115 with proof, and cluttered with snacks. Here on top of 0:03:56.155 --> 0:03:58.515 this old television set a pack of em and MS. 0:03:59.035 --> 0:04:00.475 Oh does the TV still work? 0:04:01.955 --> 0:04:06.155 I'd listened to everybody on TV and radio. I've read 0:04:06.195 --> 0:04:11.875 the papers and magazines. I've tried, But I'm confused. Who's right? 0:04:12.435 --> 0:04:13.035 What's right? 0:04:13.675 --> 0:04:14.715 What should I believe? 0:04:15.355 --> 0:04:16.435 What are the facts? 0:04:17.155 --> 0:04:18.235 How can I tell? 0:04:18.675 --> 0:04:18.995 Yeesh? 0:04:19.755 --> 0:04:22.715 Sounds like something I would say. That's why I come 0:04:22.755 --> 0:04:27.355 here to this place, This cabinet of curiosities, a police 0:04:27.395 --> 0:04:30.395 that stores the facts that matter and matters of fact. 0:04:31.195 --> 0:04:34.195 It's all that stands between a reasonable doubt and the 0:04:34.355 --> 0:04:38.675 chaos of uncertainty. It lies in a time between now 0:04:38.755 --> 0:04:43.115 and then. The sign on the door reads the last Archive. 0:04:44.435 --> 0:04:48.755 Step through that door to a studio at the Columbia 0:04:48.795 --> 0:04:54.675 Broadcasting System on Election Night nineteen fifty two. 0:04:55.635 --> 0:04:58.435 Got anything, everyone, This is Walter grand Guy speaking to 0:04:58.475 --> 0:05:02.555 you from CBS Television election headquarters. They're in New York City. 0:05:02.755 --> 0:05:05.635 The big election Night nineteen fifty two, the year when 0:05:05.635 --> 0:05:08.155 the United States BECs it's thirty fifth president. 0:05:09.235 --> 0:05:13.915 Welcome to election Night. But Election Night nineteen fifty two 0:05:14.195 --> 0:05:17.755 wasn't just any night, because everything you know about how 0:05:17.835 --> 0:05:23.395 campaigns are run and how results are announced, polls, targeted advertising, 0:05:23.875 --> 0:05:28.635 breathless television coverage, edge of your seat computer projections. That 0:05:28.795 --> 0:05:32.595 all started right here in nineteen fifty two, with Walter 0:05:32.675 --> 0:05:36.075 Cronkite just settling in for the long night ahead and 0:05:36.195 --> 0:05:40.515 CBS Studio forty one on the third floor of Grand 0:05:40.555 --> 0:05:47.355 Central Station, New York. As CBS's coverage begins, the camera 0:05:47.515 --> 0:05:52.715 pans across a crowded, frantic newsroom, teletype machines, adding machines, 0:05:53.035 --> 0:05:57.635 paper spread everywhere, dozens of telephones, some guys smoking at 0:05:57.675 --> 0:06:00.075 the back of the room near a giant wall map 0:06:00.195 --> 0:06:03.235 of the United States, a map that CBS will fill 0:06:03.275 --> 0:06:06.355 out as the returns come in. They couldn't color the 0:06:06.355 --> 0:06:10.155 states red and blue because in nineteen fifty two hardly 0:06:10.195 --> 0:06:14.635 anyone had a color TV. Instead, states that went Democrat 0:06:14.675 --> 0:06:18.875 would be covered with black. Republicans got stripes. Not so 0:06:18.955 --> 0:06:21.235 much elephants as zebras. 0:06:22.635 --> 0:06:25.355 Bomby weather over most of the United States today, and 0:06:25.435 --> 0:06:29.875 the record turnout apparently throughout the United States. 0:06:29.755 --> 0:06:33.835 Record turnout so many votes to count this election would 0:06:33.915 --> 0:06:36.995 change how Americans predicted the outcome of the election it 0:06:37.075 --> 0:06:40.475 would change all sorts of things about elections. But let 0:06:40.475 --> 0:06:44.075 me first remind you who was running. The Republicans put 0:06:44.115 --> 0:06:49.235 forward as their candidate General Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ike, the 0:06:49.315 --> 0:06:56.035 general behind D Day, military man, grandfather, straight shooter. Republicans 0:06:56.035 --> 0:07:00.315 came up with the slogan, I like Ike, I for president. 0:06:59.955 --> 0:07:01.835 I President for president. 0:07:01.955 --> 0:07:06.195 I thought President you like, and everybody really did like Ike. 0:07:06.835 --> 0:07:11.475 This is the election where likability became a thing for 0:07:11.515 --> 0:07:15.435 the Democrats. The incumbent, Harry S. Truman, was out. The 0:07:15.515 --> 0:07:20.115 Democrat who wanted to be in was Illinois Governor Adlai E. Stevenson. 0:07:20.835 --> 0:07:25.075 Stevenson wasn't affable or folksy like Eisenhower. He was learned 0:07:25.315 --> 0:07:31.955 and experienced, dignified, he might even say aristocratic. Stevenson had 0:07:31.955 --> 0:07:34.675 been born to a political family. His grandfather had been 0:07:34.715 --> 0:07:39.955 Grover Cleveland's vice president. Stevenson held himself above the messiness, 0:07:39.995 --> 0:07:45.755 the tackiness of campaigns. Trustworthy, he was supposed to be trustworthy. 0:07:46.555 --> 0:07:54.915 Vote Stephenson vo Stevenson a man you canzy leave in un. 0:07:55.755 --> 0:08:00.715 The general versus the governor, likable Ike versus the man 0:08:00.795 --> 0:08:06.115 you can believe Inson anyway, Like Walter Cronkite said, voting 0:08:06.155 --> 0:08:08.355 in the nineteen fifty two race looked to be a 0:08:08.395 --> 0:08:11.995 record turnout, turn out so big that the wire Service 0:08:12.035 --> 0:08:13.915 thought it might take until the next day to count 0:08:13.915 --> 0:08:14.355 the votes. 0:08:14.395 --> 0:08:16.875 We're going to be giving you all of the figures 0:08:16.955 --> 0:08:19.075 just as quickly as we can. But we'll know the 0:08:19.115 --> 0:08:21.315 results sometime the night, early in the. 0:08:21.275 --> 0:08:25.875 Morning, results that very night that would be fast, so fast. 0:08:26.555 --> 0:08:29.515 Historians sometimes call this era after the Second World War 0:08:29.915 --> 0:08:33.795 the Great Acceleration. There were races, the arms race, the 0:08:33.835 --> 0:08:37.435 space race, even NASCAR racing started then, but in a 0:08:37.475 --> 0:08:43.835 bigger way. Everything got sped up, transportation, communication, production, consumption, everything. 0:08:44.915 --> 0:08:47.195 Knowledge is to take the form of mysteries, things only 0:08:47.235 --> 0:08:50.475 God could know. Then came facts, then numbers, and then 0:08:50.595 --> 0:08:54.315 during the Great Acceleration, numbers began to yield to data, 0:08:54.915 --> 0:08:58.355 including the votes counted on election night. CBS wanted to 0:08:58.355 --> 0:09:04.915 count them faster than anyone else. Welcome to the Last Archive, 0:09:05.155 --> 0:09:07.675 the show about how we know what we know, how 0:09:07.715 --> 0:09:10.595 we used to know things, and what it seems sometimes 0:09:10.675 --> 0:09:13.755 lately as if we don't know anything at all. I'm 0:09:13.835 --> 0:09:16.475 Jill Lapour on the edge of my seat, waiting for 0:09:16.515 --> 0:09:20.795 the returns to come in. Aside from all those television cameras, 0:09:20.875 --> 0:09:23.435 there was another machine in the CBS studio on Election 0:09:23.595 --> 0:09:27.395 Night nineteen fifty two, a machine most Americans had never 0:09:27.435 --> 0:09:30.355 seen before, a console blinking. 0:09:34.715 --> 0:09:40.755 The development of modern electronic digital computers began with early man, 0:09:41.395 --> 0:09:44.955 who used his digits or fingers to keep track of 0:09:44.995 --> 0:09:51.595 the things around him one weapon, two animals, and three wives. 0:09:53.275 --> 0:09:56.475 A few thousand years after that Caveman, the first general 0:09:56.475 --> 0:09:59.475 purpose digital computers were built by the Allies in the 0:09:59.515 --> 0:10:03.315 Second World War. They were used to calculate missile trajectories 0:10:03.515 --> 0:10:07.595 and to break codes. After the war, the first commercial 0:10:07.675 --> 0:10:11.515 digital computer was built by an office equipment company called 0:10:11.795 --> 0:10:14.835 Remington Rand. I guess because there were more things to 0:10:14.875 --> 0:10:18.275 count than one weapon, two animals, and three wives. 0:10:19.275 --> 0:10:22.115 Even through the use of present day office equipment, it 0:10:22.195 --> 0:10:26.195 becomes increasingly difficult to process this accumulation to obtain the 0:10:26.195 --> 0:10:27.315 information we need. 0:10:27.515 --> 0:10:32.315 So many facts, so many numbers, so much data. Humankind 0:10:32.395 --> 0:10:34.715 needed a new kind of machine to. 0:10:34.715 --> 0:10:38.475 Meet this need for high speed data processing. The scientists 0:10:38.475 --> 0:10:41.555 and technicians of the Eckert Mochley division of Remington Rand 0:10:42.115 --> 0:10:48.035 have created a miracle of electronic development, UNIVAC, a complete 0:10:48.115 --> 0:10:53.355 electronic system for sorting, classifying, computing, and decision making. 0:10:53.715 --> 0:10:59.315 The UNIVAC, the Universal Automatic Computer. Remington Rand had sold 0:10:59.395 --> 0:11:02.915 one to the US Census Bureau to count the nineteen 0:11:03.035 --> 0:11:03.915 fifty census. 0:11:04.355 --> 0:11:10.275 Right now, UNIVAC is handling automatically and economically unbelievables of 0:11:10.315 --> 0:11:13.635 statistical work for the United States Bureau of the Census. 0:11:14.675 --> 0:11:17.755 Work that formerly took weeks and months to do is. 0:11:17.715 --> 0:11:21.395 Now being done in a matter of hours by UNIVAC. 0:11:22.315 --> 0:11:24.835 Okay, so the Census Bureau needed the machine to count 0:11:24.875 --> 0:11:27.675 the census. But who else could possibly need a crazy 0:11:27.715 --> 0:11:30.715 expensive UNIVAC, a machine the size of a small truck. 0:11:31.555 --> 0:11:35.195 Hardly anyone, it seemed. But Remington Ran wanted to sell them, 0:11:35.395 --> 0:11:37.315 so they had to keep pitching them, and pitching them 0:11:37.355 --> 0:11:38.555 and pitching them. 0:11:39.035 --> 0:11:43.435 UNOVAC is rapidly turning out answers, answers which have profound 0:11:43.475 --> 0:11:46.395 significance in the lives of all of us. 0:11:48.635 --> 0:11:52.795 Maybe UNIVAC could count votes. Maybe on election night, UNIVAC 0:11:52.835 --> 0:11:56.275 could even know the winner before any human could. Maybe 0:11:56.315 --> 0:11:59.435 the UNIVAC might actually get it right, because in the 0:11:59.515 --> 0:12:02.035 last election everyone had gotten it wrong. 0:12:03.555 --> 0:12:06.635 Thomas Dewey and his family waited expectantly for concession. 0:12:07.235 --> 0:12:10.235 In nineteen forty eight, Truman had run against the publican 0:12:10.275 --> 0:12:14.155 governor of New York, Thomas Dewey. All the big pollsters 0:12:14.195 --> 0:12:17.515 were sure Dewey would win. Reporters were just as sure. 0:12:17.915 --> 0:12:21.955 The Chicago Tribune went to press early, too early, with 0:12:22.035 --> 0:12:25.635 one hundred and fifty thousand papers bearing the headline Dewey 0:12:25.675 --> 0:12:29.515 defeats Truman. Dear listener, he did not. 0:12:31.035 --> 0:12:33.955 A man of the people, had accomplished a political miracle 0:12:34.555 --> 0:12:37.835 at his home in Independence, Missouri. President Truman accepted the 0:12:37.875 --> 0:12:39.195 congratulations of the nation. 0:12:40.915 --> 0:12:43.635 TV got it wrong, too, But TV didn't matter in 0:12:43.715 --> 0:12:47.075 nineteen forty eight, first because hardly anyone owned a television 0:12:47.075 --> 0:12:50.355 set then, and second, the TV coverage in nineteen forty 0:12:50.395 --> 0:12:54.555 eight was basically just live film of radio guys snoozing 0:12:54.675 --> 0:12:58.315 and waiting for the returns. But in nineteen fifty two, 0:12:58.755 --> 0:13:02.435 everything was supposed to be different. People finally had television sets. 0:13:02.715 --> 0:13:05.435 Watching would be fun, the announcers would call it right. 0:13:05.915 --> 0:13:10.555 So back to election night nineteen fifty two, it seems. 0:13:10.235 --> 0:13:13.635 To me that television has certainly come into its home 0:13:13.755 --> 0:13:14.155 this year. 0:13:14.555 --> 0:13:18.795 This time, everything seems to be especially designed just forward television. 0:13:18.675 --> 0:13:20.675 CBS had put a lot of effort and money into 0:13:20.675 --> 0:13:23.955 its coverage, every last bell and whistle. They'd also made 0:13:23.995 --> 0:13:26.195 it into a race. They really wanted to call the 0:13:26.235 --> 0:13:30.075 election early. Ideally, they wanted to call the election first, 0:13:30.875 --> 0:13:33.075 except they didn't want to call it so early that 0:13:33.115 --> 0:13:36.435 they'd get it wrong. But in case that happened, they 0:13:36.475 --> 0:13:43.115 needed a scapegoat. Enter the computer. Millions of Americans had televisions, 0:13:43.355 --> 0:13:46.915 but how many had computers. None. At the time, there 0:13:46.915 --> 0:13:50.795 were by my count, six computers in the whole country. 0:13:51.155 --> 0:13:54.115 It's possible I have my numbers wrong. Remember I am 0:13:54.155 --> 0:13:57.915 only human. But here's where what CBS wanted and what 0:13:57.955 --> 0:14:02.155 Remington Ran wanted lined up perfectly. Remington Ran needed a 0:14:02.235 --> 0:14:06.155 chance to show how useful computers are a showcase. CBS 0:14:06.355 --> 0:14:10.195 needed a stunt and also a scapegoat. As a match 0:14:10.195 --> 0:14:13.555 made in heaven, these things tend to seem inevitable after 0:14:13.555 --> 0:14:16.435 the fact, but of course history doesn't work that way. 0:14:17.075 --> 0:14:20.835 Most things happen by accident. A few months before election day, 0:14:20.915 --> 0:14:22.795 a guy from CBS went out to lunch with a 0:14:22.795 --> 0:14:26.075 guy from Remington Rand. CBS wanted to put in a 0:14:26.075 --> 0:14:29.515 big order for you know, typewriters and calculators, the sorts 0:14:29.555 --> 0:14:31.715 of machines that figured it needed to stock up on 0:14:32.075 --> 0:14:35.475 for election night. But the Remington Rand guy said, have 0:14:35.635 --> 0:14:40.955 you considered a UNIVAC. CBS's director of News in Public 0:14:40.955 --> 0:14:44.715 Affairs guy called Sig Mickelson heard about the lunch. He 0:14:44.835 --> 0:14:47.555 decided to go to the Remington Ran factory in Philadelphia 0:14:47.635 --> 0:14:50.555 to take a look. He hopped on the train and 0:14:50.675 --> 0:14:52.635 went to meet the UNIVAC. 0:14:55.355 --> 0:14:58.875 The machine was a monster, a mass of electronic vacuum 0:14:58.995 --> 0:15:02.475 tubes interconnected by miles of copper wire and cooled by 0:15:02.595 --> 0:15:03.435 noisy fans. 0:15:04.515 --> 0:15:06.675 Mickelson was supposed to meet a colleague of his there 0:15:06.835 --> 0:15:13.435 in Philadelphia, the dashing cbsqu correspondent Charles Collingwood. As legend 0:15:13.475 --> 0:15:16.995 has it, Collingwood was running late. When he arrived, The 0:15:17.035 --> 0:15:20.555 printer hooked up to the UNIVAC spat out a short message, 0:15:21.275 --> 0:15:24.355 calling Wood, you are a leap Where have you been? 0:15:26.235 --> 0:15:28.915 This is what's known among historians is a fact too 0:15:28.915 --> 0:15:32.195 good to check, in a sense that this never happened. 0:15:32.195 --> 0:15:35.155 But I'm telling you about it because Mickelson said it happened, 0:15:35.435 --> 0:15:38.395 and I love it. Back to things that did happen, 0:15:38.875 --> 0:15:41.635 CBS decided to proceed with what it called I'm not 0:15:41.715 --> 0:15:48.235 making this up project. Here's the deal they worked out. 0:15:48.595 --> 0:15:51.235 CBS would get the services of Univac for election night, 0:15:51.595 --> 0:15:54.435 but the machine would stay in Philadelphia. It was just 0:15:54.515 --> 0:15:56.995 too big to bring to New York. It weighed sixteen 0:15:56.995 --> 0:16:00.195 thousand pounds and had five thousand vacuum tubes. But the 0:16:00.235 --> 0:16:02.435 CBS studio in New York needed to look like it 0:16:02.475 --> 0:16:05.435 had a computer on set, so Charles Collingwood would sit 0:16:05.475 --> 0:16:08.835 at a UNIVAC looking thingamagic a console. There was actually 0:16:08.875 --> 0:16:13.635 just a dummy, a fake. The giant computer prophet CBS did, however, 0:16:13.835 --> 0:16:17.075 light up. It blinked for the benefit of viewers at home, 0:16:17.395 --> 0:16:19.635 as if it were the real electronic brain. 0:16:20.475 --> 0:16:24.275 Thinking it's like a Christmas tree light time, or basically, 0:16:24.515 --> 0:16:26.515 and if you watch it long enough, you see the 0:16:26.555 --> 0:16:27.795 pattern of the lights. 0:16:27.915 --> 0:16:28.475 Just review. 0:16:28.515 --> 0:16:30.275 There's nothing, there's nothing happened. 0:16:30.755 --> 0:16:33.355 I first learned about this story and a dissertation, an 0:16:33.395 --> 0:16:38.315 amazing dissertation called Battle of the Brains by Ira Chenoi. 0:16:38.915 --> 0:16:41.675 And I don't say dissertations are amazing all that often. 0:16:42.075 --> 0:16:44.475 Chanoi is a professor at the University of Maryland, but 0:16:44.555 --> 0:16:46.555 before he got his PhD, he was the director of 0:16:46.595 --> 0:16:50.675 computer assisted Reporting at the Washington Post. Before that, he'd 0:16:50.715 --> 0:16:53.715 been an investigative reporter. I wanted to visit him in 0:16:53.795 --> 0:16:56.275 his office in Maryland so that we could watch this 0:16:56.355 --> 0:17:00.595 footage together, footage that he'd discovered in the archives. 0:17:01.235 --> 0:17:02.155 It looks great there. 0:17:02.275 --> 0:17:03.475 It does look really good. 0:17:03.595 --> 0:17:04.995 And actually I don't know if you can see it here, 0:17:05.035 --> 0:17:08.715 but actually saw one of these when I went out 0:17:08.715 --> 0:17:10.435 to the Computer Instrum Museum, and I think it has 0:17:10.475 --> 0:17:11.795 an ashtray in it. 0:17:11.835 --> 0:17:15.395 Actually, Tony and I watched the footage where Walter Cronkite 0:17:15.435 --> 0:17:18.875 and Charles Collingwood on election I wait for the first 0:17:18.875 --> 0:17:20.675 prediction from the machine, and. 0:17:20.595 --> 0:17:24.515 Now for perhaps a prediction on how this voting is going. 0:17:24.835 --> 0:17:28.075 What's the vote that is in so far means let's 0:17:28.115 --> 0:17:31.155 turn to that miracle of the modern age, the electronic 0:17:31.195 --> 0:17:33.755 brain UNIVAC and the Charles Collingwood. 0:17:33.835 --> 0:17:38.355 Collingwood's on live television looking at a display offscreen, waiting 0:17:38.395 --> 0:17:40.555 for a prediction that he's supposed to read out loud. 0:17:40.675 --> 0:17:42.755 The JUNIVAK is going to try to predict the winner 0:17:42.795 --> 0:17:45.795 for us just as early as we can possibly get 0:17:45.795 --> 0:17:49.235 the returns. Then this is not a joke or a trick. 0:17:49.595 --> 0:17:52.155 It's an experiment. We think it's going to work, We 0:17:52.235 --> 0:17:52.595 don't know. 0:17:52.675 --> 0:17:54.755 We hope it'll work, but. 0:17:54.835 --> 0:17:59.115 There's nothing coming in. It's incredibly awkward to watch. They 0:17:59.155 --> 0:18:02.195 didn't call this stuff cringe TV then, but this is 0:18:02.315 --> 0:18:02.995 cringe TV. 0:18:03.915 --> 0:18:07.555 Can you say something, UNIVAC, have you got anything to 0:18:07.555 --> 0:18:09.035 say to the television audience? 0:18:09.795 --> 0:18:13.155 Currently? The UNIVAC in Philadelphia had made a prediction. It 0:18:13.235 --> 0:18:17.075 predicted that Eisenhower would win in a landslide, but given 0:18:17.075 --> 0:18:19.755 that exit polls had the race neck and neck, that 0:18:19.795 --> 0:18:25.155 prediction seemed bananas, so, supposedly, not wanting to screw up Remington, 0:18:25.235 --> 0:18:27.755 Ran decided not to send that prediction on to CBS 0:18:27.835 --> 0:18:32.315 in New York. Remington's second guest its own machine, which 0:18:32.395 --> 0:18:36.635 left Collingwood hanging and CBS without a prediction to announce. 0:18:36.915 --> 0:18:41.675 You're a very impolite in Shane, I must say, it. 0:18:41.715 --> 0:18:44.555 Was as if the whole election had suddenly gone off script, 0:18:45.235 --> 0:18:47.595 when in fact, so much of the campaign had been 0:18:47.635 --> 0:18:52.675 so entirely scripted. There's more to this story. There are documents, 0:18:52.915 --> 0:18:56.835 There is evidence. My producer Ben has filed a copy 0:18:56.915 --> 0:19:01.915 of that campaign script in his desk herein the last archive. 0:19:06.995 --> 0:19:10.955 So the supercomputer UNIVAC failed its first public audition as 0:19:10.995 --> 0:19:13.835 the predictor of voter behavior, at least though it was 0:19:13.875 --> 0:19:17.515 something obvious, a giant machine with these blinking lights right 0:19:17.515 --> 0:19:21.515 there on television. A lot more subtle stuff changed during 0:19:21.595 --> 0:19:26.035 that election, too, stuff that's been forgotten because now it's everywhere. 0:19:26.395 --> 0:19:27.475 I for president, I. 0:19:27.635 --> 0:19:30.235 For president, I for president, I thought president. 0:19:31.235 --> 0:19:34.475 Television advertising that was new too, not jingles. There'd been 0:19:34.515 --> 0:19:37.795 campaign songs since forever, but nineteen fifty two saw the 0:19:37.795 --> 0:19:41.595 introduction of a particular kind of television advertising, the targeted 0:19:41.635 --> 0:19:45.835 political ad. Lately, all political ads are targeted. They're targeted 0:19:45.875 --> 0:19:49.475 by computers is unairring his missiles. But in nineteen fifty two, 0:19:50.155 --> 0:19:54.555 targeting was done by hand, and political television advertising was 0:19:54.595 --> 0:20:00.635 invented by a man named Rosser Reeves. Think Don Draper 0:20:00.715 --> 0:20:05.195 and Madmen, but even slicker the very best Madison Avenue 0:20:05.235 --> 0:20:08.995 could offer. Rosser Reeves he was the man. He owned 0:20:09.035 --> 0:20:11.115 one of the world's big I just rubies. He led 0:20:11.115 --> 0:20:13.995 the uschess team on a trip to the Soviet Union. 0:20:14.595 --> 0:20:18.595 He invested in island real estate. He captained yachts. He 0:20:18.635 --> 0:20:23.035 flew planes mainly, though he created modern television advertising. 0:20:24.075 --> 0:20:27.035 Reeves decided that there were many advantages to be gained 0:20:27.035 --> 0:20:30.515 by adopting a new form of political advertising, the short 0:20:30.555 --> 0:20:31.515 spot commercial. 0:20:31.795 --> 0:20:35.595 Signicholson, that executive from CBS who brought in the UNIVAC 0:20:36.195 --> 0:20:39.115 he knew all about Reeves he later wrote about it. 0:20:39.835 --> 0:20:42.715 He had a hunch that the sixty second advertising spot 0:20:42.715 --> 0:20:45.075 could be used in the way the soap, food and 0:20:45.115 --> 0:20:48.435 cigarette companies were using them with spectacular success. 0:20:49.515 --> 0:20:52.395 In nineteen fifty two, Reeves took his talents to politics. 0:20:53.275 --> 0:20:56.595 He went to the Republican Convention, the first convention broadcast 0:20:56.715 --> 0:21:01.635 start to finish on television. Reeves was there, but instead 0:21:01.635 --> 0:21:04.235 of watching from the convention hall, he watched the keynote 0:21:04.275 --> 0:21:07.715 speech on TV from a hotel room. The crowds inside 0:21:07.715 --> 0:21:11.475 the stadium were enthusiastic, but watching the convention on TV, 0:21:11.915 --> 0:21:16.515 Reeves thought the speeches were dreadful, too many ideas, too 0:21:16.515 --> 0:21:19.955 many words. So he devised a test to see which 0:21:19.995 --> 0:21:24.475 people remembered better a televised speech or a televised commercial. 0:21:26.195 --> 0:21:29.195 Less than ten percent of people remember the speech, ninety 0:21:29.275 --> 0:21:32.835 one percent remember the commercial. Reeves thought that was because 0:21:32.875 --> 0:21:36.875 speeches usually have a lot of ideas, too many for television. 0:21:37.475 --> 0:21:41.155 He believed in something he called the unique selling proposition 0:21:42.275 --> 0:21:43.075 the USP. 0:21:45.675 --> 0:21:50.355 What is a USP. It's a theory of the ideal 0:21:50.475 --> 0:21:54.955 selling concept. It is a condensation, a verbal shorthand, if 0:21:54.955 --> 0:21:58.795 you will, of what makes a campaign work. It is 0:21:58.835 --> 0:22:03.435 the hidden secret of literally thousands of the most successful 0:22:03.475 --> 0:22:05.515 advertising campaigns ever written. 0:22:06.995 --> 0:22:10.995 Reeves often made pitches over meetings at Manhattan's One Club, 0:22:11.195 --> 0:22:15.275 where everyone was always several martinis deep. He told them 0:22:15.275 --> 0:22:18.675 that his unique selling proposition had three rules. 0:22:19.115 --> 0:22:23.515 Number one, each advertisement must make a proposition to the consumer, 0:22:23.835 --> 0:22:28.555 not just words, not just product puffery. Each advertisement must 0:22:28.595 --> 0:22:32.115 say to each reader, buy this product and you will 0:22:32.195 --> 0:22:36.515 get this specific benefit. Number two, the proposition must be 0:22:36.595 --> 0:22:39.595 the one that the competition either canoe or does not offer. 0:22:39.875 --> 0:22:43.075 Number Three, the proposition must be so strong that it 0:22:43.075 --> 0:22:44.995 could move the mass millions. 0:22:45.355 --> 0:22:49.595 That's from Reeves's book Reality and Advertising. My producer Ben 0:22:49.635 --> 0:22:51.315 and I decided to go get a copy of it. 0:22:52.115 --> 0:22:54.155 So we went to the basement of Wider Library at 0:22:54.155 --> 0:22:57.595 Harvard together. And when I say basement, I mean not 0:22:57.715 --> 0:23:00.235 in the deepest sense. To get to Reeves, you take 0:23:00.275 --> 0:23:03.155 the elevator four stories down and then you walk through 0:23:03.195 --> 0:23:06.755 a tunnel. So the fucy tunnel, it's so much better 0:23:06.795 --> 0:23:07.315 than you used to be. 0:23:08.835 --> 0:23:10.755 Be plastic buckets down. 0:23:10.595 --> 0:23:13.315 Here because they're just all these see all these pipes. 0:23:13.315 --> 0:23:17.675 They would just do it, but they still has that humidity. No, 0:23:17.795 --> 0:23:22.315 it's a humidity treatment smell. I think it would humiliate 0:23:22.355 --> 0:23:24.275 Reeves to know this. But after you go through that 0:23:24.355 --> 0:23:27.555 sweaty tunnel, you have to go down another level, down 0:23:27.595 --> 0:23:31.595 another elevator to finally get to the stacks and the 0:23:31.635 --> 0:23:36.515 shelf where his book is housed. His best advertisements all 0:23:36.555 --> 0:23:41.635 follow those three rules of the USP. So Wonderbread helps 0:23:41.635 --> 0:23:45.315 build strong bodies in twelve ways, andison gives you fast, fast, 0:23:45.355 --> 0:23:49.435 fast relief. But my personal favorite was the campaign he 0:23:49.515 --> 0:23:51.275 wrote for Eminem's. 0:23:51.755 --> 0:23:56.115 Which han chocolate can not good hands. 0:23:56.155 --> 0:23:57.835 That's ordinary chocolate can. 0:23:58.035 --> 0:23:58.715 It's melted. 0:23:59.115 --> 0:24:04.035 But this there's no chocolate min because amanams melt. Chocolate 0:24:04.115 --> 0:24:06.995 melts in your mouth, not in your hand. 0:24:07.315 --> 0:24:11.115 Reeves said Republicans should run ad spots, and Eisenhower, like 0:24:11.275 --> 0:24:15.275 M and M's Ike's campaign, signed him right up. Even 0:24:15.275 --> 0:24:19.795 though Eisenhower himself had yet to be convinced. Reeves took 0:24:19.835 --> 0:24:22.355 six weeks off and holed himself up in a hotel 0:24:22.515 --> 0:24:25.395 to write ad copy. He had all of Eisenhower's speech 0:24:25.475 --> 0:24:27.475 is sent over, but he didn't read them. 0:24:27.835 --> 0:24:30.235 I was too busy with the political mailstroam to sit 0:24:30.315 --> 0:24:34.395 down personally and read all the Eisenhower's rather dreary speeches. 0:24:34.355 --> 0:24:36.595 So we had other people do that. They drew up 0:24:36.635 --> 0:24:39.715