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Speaker 1: Pushkin. One Saturday in November twenty twenty, I was buying

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Speaker 1: shoes in Brooklyn. Crazy, I know, but this is a

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Speaker 1: true story. They were running shoes. Did I run with

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Speaker 1: them hardly? Ever, But that's not important. What's important is

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Speaker 1: I was at the store trying on some hokahs I

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Speaker 1: later came to regret. And then a crazy thing happened.

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Speaker 1: A good friend of mine pulled up in a car

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Speaker 1: out front. He had just that very day moved back

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Speaker 1: to New York. And then as he got out of

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Speaker 1: the car, people all over the streets suddenly raised their windows,

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Speaker 1: leaned out of them, and began to scream and hag

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Speaker 1: on pots and pans. I was like, whoa, you should

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Speaker 1: try moving away more often. But then I checked my phone,

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Speaker 1: and remember I was in Brooklyn. I realized that the

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Speaker 1: election had just been called for Joe Biden. It was

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Speaker 1: November seventh, twenty twenty. But here's the twist this it

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Speaker 1: was four days after the election happened. You may remember

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Speaker 1: the agonizingly long time between election day twenty twenty and

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Speaker 1: the announcement of the final result. If you're a younger person,

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Speaker 1: this might have felt very novel to you. It felt

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Speaker 1: pretty novel to me. Generally, in my lifetime, elections were

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Speaker 1: decided sometime overnight on election day or into the next morning,

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Speaker 1: when a tired Wolfplitzer would est at a GLITCHI map

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Speaker 1: and say that CNN could finally make a projection. But

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Speaker 1: for a long time, it took a long time to

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Speaker 1: call elections. The country is big, counting votes by hand

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Speaker 1: is slow, and then reporting them is laborious. There wasn't

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Speaker 1: one single election day until eighteen forty five. The eighteen

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Speaker 1: seventy six election wasn't called till eighteen seventy seven. Quick

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Speaker 1: calls like the famous Dewey defeats Truman case of nineteen

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Speaker 1: forty eight were easy to get wrong. But that changed

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Speaker 1: in a meaningful way in nineteen fifty two. Seeing as

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Speaker 1: it's an election year in fact, you might be receiving

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Speaker 1: with some trepidation, we overhear at the last Archive are

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Speaker 1: digging through our own archives to bring you a mini

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Speaker 1: season rehashing our past election coverage. Today, I want to

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Speaker 1: take you back to that election night nineteen fifty two, Eisenhower,

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Speaker 1: Varus Stevenson and the quantum leap, and how we ran

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Speaker 1: and called elections. This was the first election to be

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Speaker 1: predicted by computer, the moment we really leaned into our

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Speaker 1: need for speed. What's interesting about that election and the

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Speaker 1: marriage of computing power, polling, advertising, and electoral politics is

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Speaker 1: that it accelerated a trend towards putting our faith in predictions,

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Speaker 1: as if you almost didn't need to hold an election

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Speaker 1: at all, but that with enough data you could just

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Speaker 1: simulate the outcome data simulation, massive computers. Election Night sounds

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Speaker 1: like a job for the last archive. So let's go

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Speaker 1: back to twenty twenty when we made this episode from

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Speaker 1: our first season, and then even further back to the

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Speaker 1: election of nineteen fifty two and the emergence of a

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Speaker 1: new way to run and to call elections. Oh and

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Speaker 1: one last thing before we get into it. You'll hear

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Speaker 1: in the episode from the historian Ira Chenoi who wrote

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Speaker 1: a dissertation called Battle of the Brains on the Computers

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Speaker 1: of Election Night nineteen fifty two. Well, that dissertation is

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Speaker 1: about to be a book out in May called Predicting

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Speaker 1: the Winner. Okay, from our first season, first published in

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Speaker 1: the summer of twenty twenty, here's Project X.

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Speaker 2: There's a place in our world where the known things

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Speaker 2: go a quarter of the mind, lined with shelves, stocked

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Speaker 2: with proof, and cluttered with snacks. Here on top of

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Speaker 2: this old television set a pack of em and MS.

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Speaker 2: Oh does the TV still work?

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Speaker 3: I'd listened to everybody on TV and radio. I've read

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Speaker 3: the papers and magazines. I've tried, But I'm confused. Who's right?

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Speaker 4: What's right?

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Speaker 5: What should I believe?

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Speaker 4: What are the facts?

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Speaker 5: How can I tell?

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Speaker 4: Yeesh?

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Speaker 2: Sounds like something I would say. That's why I come

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Speaker 2: here to this place, This cabinet of curiosities, a police

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Speaker 2: that stores the facts that matter and matters of fact.

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Speaker 2: It's all that stands between a reasonable doubt and the

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Speaker 2: chaos of uncertainty. It lies in a time between now

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Speaker 2: and then. The sign on the door reads the last Archive.

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Speaker 2: Step through that door to a studio at the Columbia

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Speaker 2: Broadcasting System on Election Night nineteen fifty two.

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Speaker 6: Got anything, everyone, This is Walter grand Guy speaking to

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Speaker 6: you from CBS Television election headquarters. They're in New York City.

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Speaker 6: The big election Night nineteen fifty two, the year when

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Speaker 6: the United States BECs it's thirty fifth president.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to election Night. But Election Night nineteen fifty two

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Speaker 2: wasn't just any night, because everything you know about how

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Speaker 2: campaigns are run and how results are announced, polls, targeted advertising,

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Speaker 2: breathless television coverage, edge of your seat computer projections. That

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Speaker 2: all started right here in nineteen fifty two, with Walter

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Speaker 2: Cronkite just settling in for the long night ahead and

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Speaker 2: CBS Studio forty one on the third floor of Grand

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Speaker 2: Central Station, New York. As CBS's coverage begins, the camera

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Speaker 2: pans across a crowded, frantic newsroom, teletype machines, adding machines,

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Speaker 2: paper spread everywhere, dozens of telephones, some guys smoking at

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Speaker 2: the back of the room near a giant wall map

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Speaker 2: of the United States, a map that CBS will fill

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Speaker 2: out as the returns come in. They couldn't color the

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Speaker 2: states red and blue because in nineteen fifty two hardly

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Speaker 2: anyone had a color TV. Instead, states that went Democrat

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Speaker 2: would be covered with black. Republicans got stripes. Not so

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Speaker 2: much elephants as zebras.

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Speaker 6: Bomby weather over most of the United States today, and

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Speaker 6: the record turnout apparently throughout the United States.

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Speaker 2: Record turnout so many votes to count this election would

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Speaker 2: change how Americans predicted the outcome of the election it

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Speaker 2: would change all sorts of things about elections. But let

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Speaker 2: me first remind you who was running. The Republicans put

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Speaker 2: forward as their candidate General Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ike, the

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Speaker 2: general behind D Day, military man, grandfather, straight shooter. Republicans

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Speaker 2: came up with the slogan, I like Ike, I for president.

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Speaker 4: I President for president.

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Speaker 2: I thought President you like, and everybody really did like Ike.

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Speaker 2: This is the election where likability became a thing for

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Speaker 2: the Democrats. The incumbent, Harry S. Truman, was out. The

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Speaker 2: Democrat who wanted to be in was Illinois Governor Adlai E. Stevenson.

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Speaker 2: Stevenson wasn't affable or folksy like Eisenhower. He was learned

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Speaker 2: and experienced, dignified, he might even say aristocratic. Stevenson had

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Speaker 2: been born to a political family. His grandfather had been

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Speaker 2: Grover Cleveland's vice president. Stevenson held himself above the messiness,

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Speaker 2: the tackiness of campaigns. Trustworthy, he was supposed to be trustworthy.

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Speaker 5: Vote Stephenson vo Stevenson a man you canzy leave in un.

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Speaker 2: The general versus the governor, likable Ike versus the man

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Speaker 2: you can believe Inson anyway, Like Walter Cronkite said, voting

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Speaker 2: in the nineteen fifty two race looked to be a

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Speaker 2: record turnout, turn out so big that the wire Service

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Speaker 2: thought it might take until the next day to count

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Speaker 2: the votes.

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Speaker 6: We're going to be giving you all of the figures

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Speaker 6: just as quickly as we can. But we'll know the

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Speaker 6: results sometime the night, early in the.

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Speaker 2: Morning, results that very night that would be fast, so fast.

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Speaker 2: Historians sometimes call this era after the Second World War

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Speaker 2: the Great Acceleration. There were races, the arms race, the

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Speaker 2: space race, even NASCAR racing started then, but in a

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Speaker 2: bigger way. Everything got sped up, transportation, communication, production, consumption, everything.

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Speaker 2: Knowledge is to take the form of mysteries, things only

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Speaker 2: God could know. Then came facts, then numbers, and then

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Speaker 2: during the Great Acceleration, numbers began to yield to data,

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Speaker 2: including the votes counted on election night. CBS wanted to

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Speaker 2: count them faster than anyone else. Welcome to the Last Archive,

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Speaker 2: the show about how we know what we know, how

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Speaker 2: we used to know things, and what it seems sometimes

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Speaker 2: lately as if we don't know anything at all. I'm

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Speaker 2: Jill Lapour on the edge of my seat, waiting for

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Speaker 2: the returns to come in. Aside from all those television cameras,

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Speaker 2: there was another machine in the CBS studio on Election

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Speaker 2: Night nineteen fifty two, a machine most Americans had never

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Speaker 2: seen before, a console blinking.

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Speaker 4: The development of modern electronic digital computers began with early man,

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Speaker 4: who used his digits or fingers to keep track of

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Speaker 4: the things around him one weapon, two animals, and three wives.

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Speaker 2: A few thousand years after that Caveman, the first general

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Speaker 2: purpose digital computers were built by the Allies in the

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Speaker 2: Second World War. They were used to calculate missile trajectories

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Speaker 2: and to break codes. After the war, the first commercial

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Speaker 2: digital computer was built by an office equipment company called

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Speaker 2: Remington Rand. I guess because there were more things to

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Speaker 2: count than one weapon, two animals, and three wives.

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Speaker 7: Even through the use of present day office equipment, it

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Speaker 7: becomes increasingly difficult to process this accumulation to obtain the

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Speaker 7: information we need.

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Speaker 2: So many facts, so many numbers, so much data. Humankind

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Speaker 2: needed a new kind of machine to.

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Speaker 7: Meet this need for high speed data processing. The scientists

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Speaker 7: and technicians of the Eckert Mochley division of Remington Rand

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Speaker 7: have created a miracle of electronic development, UNIVAC, a complete

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Speaker 7: electronic system for sorting, classifying, computing, and decision making.

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Speaker 2: The UNIVAC, the Universal Automatic Computer. Remington Rand had sold

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Speaker 2: one to the US Census Bureau to count the nineteen

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Speaker 2: fifty census.

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Speaker 7: Right now, UNIVAC is handling automatically and economically unbelievables of

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Speaker 7: statistical work for the United States Bureau of the Census.

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Speaker 4: Work that formerly took weeks and months to do is.

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Speaker 7: Now being done in a matter of hours by UNIVAC.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so the Census Bureau needed the machine to count

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Speaker 2: the census. But who else could possibly need a crazy

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Speaker 2: expensive UNIVAC, a machine the size of a small truck.

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Speaker 2: Hardly anyone, it seemed. But Remington Ran wanted to sell them,

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Speaker 2: so they had to keep pitching them, and pitching them

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Speaker 2: and pitching them.

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Speaker 7: UNOVAC is rapidly turning out answers, answers which have profound

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Speaker 7: significance in the lives of all of us.

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Speaker 2: Maybe UNIVAC could count votes. Maybe on election night, UNIVAC

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Speaker 2: could even know the winner before any human could. Maybe

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Speaker 2: the UNIVAC might actually get it right, because in the

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Speaker 2: last election everyone had gotten it wrong.

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Speaker 5: Thomas Dewey and his family waited expectantly for concession.

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Speaker 2: In nineteen forty eight, Truman had run against the publican

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Speaker 2: governor of New York, Thomas Dewey. All the big pollsters

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Speaker 2: were sure Dewey would win. Reporters were just as sure.

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Speaker 2: The Chicago Tribune went to press early, too early, with

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty thousand papers bearing the headline Dewey

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Speaker 2: defeats Truman. Dear listener, he did not.

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Speaker 5: A man of the people, had accomplished a political miracle

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Speaker 5: at his home in Independence, Missouri. President Truman accepted the

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Speaker 5: congratulations of the nation.

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Speaker 2: TV got it wrong, too, But TV didn't matter in

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Speaker 2: nineteen forty eight, first because hardly anyone owned a television

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Speaker 2: set then, and second, the TV coverage in nineteen forty

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Speaker 2: eight was basically just live film of radio guys snoozing

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Speaker 2: and waiting for the returns. But in nineteen fifty two,

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Speaker 2: everything was supposed to be different. People finally had television sets.

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Speaker 2: Watching would be fun, the announcers would call it right.

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Speaker 2: So back to election night nineteen fifty two, it seems.

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Speaker 8: To me that television has certainly come into its home

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Speaker 8: this year.

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Speaker 9: This time, everything seems to be especially designed just forward television.

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Speaker 2: CBS had put a lot of effort and money into

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Speaker 2: its coverage, every last bell and whistle. They'd also made

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Speaker 2: it into a race. They really wanted to call the

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Speaker 2: election early. Ideally, they wanted to call the election first,

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Speaker 2: except they didn't want to call it so early that

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Speaker 2: they'd get it wrong. But in case that happened, they

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Speaker 2: needed a scapegoat. Enter the computer. Millions of Americans had televisions,

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Speaker 2: but how many had computers. None. At the time, there

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Speaker 2: were by my count, six computers in the whole country.

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Speaker 2: It's possible I have my numbers wrong. Remember I am

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Speaker 2: only human. But here's where what CBS wanted and what

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Speaker 2: Remington Ran wanted lined up perfectly. Remington Ran needed a

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Speaker 2: chance to show how useful computers are a showcase. CBS

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Speaker 2: needed a stunt and also a scapegoat. As a match

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Speaker 2: made in heaven, these things tend to seem inevitable after

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Speaker 2: the fact, but of course history doesn't work that way.

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Speaker 2: Most things happen by accident. A few months before election day,

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Speaker 2: a guy from CBS went out to lunch with a

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Speaker 2: guy from Remington Rand. CBS wanted to put in a

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Speaker 2: big order for you know, typewriters and calculators, the sorts

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Speaker 2: of machines that figured it needed to stock up on

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Speaker 2: for election night. But the Remington Rand guy said, have

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Speaker 2: you considered a UNIVAC. CBS's director of News in Public

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Speaker 2: Affairs guy called Sig Mickelson heard about the lunch. He

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Speaker 2: decided to go to the Remington Ran factory in Philadelphia

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Speaker 2: to take a look. He hopped on the train and

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Speaker 2: went to meet the UNIVAC.

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Speaker 10: The machine was a monster, a mass of electronic vacuum

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Speaker 10: tubes interconnected by miles of copper wire and cooled by

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Speaker 10: noisy fans.

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Speaker 2: Mickelson was supposed to meet a colleague of his there

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Speaker 2: in Philadelphia, the dashing cbsqu correspondent Charles Collingwood. As legend

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Speaker 2: has it, Collingwood was running late. When he arrived, The

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Speaker 2: printer hooked up to the UNIVAC spat out a short message,

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Speaker 2: calling Wood, you are a leap Where have you been?

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Speaker 2: This is what's known among historians is a fact too

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Speaker 2: good to check, in a sense that this never happened.

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Speaker 2: But I'm telling you about it because Mickelson said it happened,

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Speaker 2: and I love it. Back to things that did happen,

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Speaker 2: CBS decided to proceed with what it called I'm not

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Speaker 2: making this up project. Here's the deal they worked out.

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Speaker 2: CBS would get the services of Univac for election night,

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Speaker 2: but the machine would stay in Philadelphia. It was just

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Speaker 2: too big to bring to New York. It weighed sixteen

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Speaker 2: thousand pounds and had five thousand vacuum tubes. But the

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Speaker 2: CBS studio in New York needed to look like it

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Speaker 2: had a computer on set, so Charles Collingwood would sit

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Speaker 2: at a UNIVAC looking thingamagic a console. There was actually

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Speaker 2: just a dummy, a fake. The giant computer prophet CBS did, however,

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Speaker 2: light up. It blinked for the benefit of viewers at home,

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Speaker 2: as if it were the real electronic brain.

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Speaker 11: Thinking it's like a Christmas tree light time, or basically,

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Speaker 11: and if you watch it long enough, you see the

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Speaker 11: pattern of the lights.

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Speaker 6: Just review.

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Speaker 4: There's nothing, there's nothing happened.

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Speaker 2: I first learned about this story and a dissertation, an

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Speaker 2: amazing dissertation called Battle of the Brains by Ira Chenoi.

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Speaker 2: And I don't say dissertations are amazing all that often.

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Speaker 2: Chanoi is a professor at the University of Maryland, but

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Speaker 2: before he got his PhD, he was the director of

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Speaker 2: computer assisted Reporting at the Washington Post. Before that, he'd

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Speaker 2: been an investigative reporter. I wanted to visit him in

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Speaker 2: his office in Maryland so that we could watch this

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Speaker 2: footage together, footage that he'd discovered in the archives.

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Speaker 1: It looks great there.

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Speaker 4: It does look really good.

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Speaker 6: And actually I don't know if you can see it here,

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Speaker 6: but actually saw one of these when I went out

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Speaker 6: to the Computer Instrum Museum, and I think it has

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Speaker 6: an ashtray in it.

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Speaker 2: Actually, Tony and I watched the footage where Walter Cronkite

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Speaker 2: and Charles Collingwood on election I wait for the first

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Speaker 2: prediction from the machine, and.

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Speaker 6: Now for perhaps a prediction on how this voting is going.

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Speaker 6: What's the vote that is in so far means let's

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Speaker 6: turn to that miracle of the modern age, the electronic

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Speaker 6: brain UNIVAC and the Charles Collingwood.

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Speaker 2: Collingwood's on live television looking at a display offscreen, waiting

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Speaker 2: for a prediction that he's supposed to read out loud.

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Speaker 11: The JUNIVAK is going to try to predict the winner

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Speaker 11: for us just as early as we can possibly get

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Speaker 11: the returns. Then this is not a joke or a trick.

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Speaker 11: It's an experiment. We think it's going to work, We

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Speaker 11: don't know.

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Speaker 1: We hope it'll work, but.

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Speaker 2: There's nothing coming in. It's incredibly awkward to watch. They

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Speaker 2: didn't call this stuff cringe TV then, but this is

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Speaker 2: cringe TV.

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Speaker 11: Can you say something, UNIVAC, have you got anything to

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Speaker 11: say to the television audience?

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Speaker 2: Currently? The UNIVAC in Philadelphia had made a prediction. It

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Speaker 2: predicted that Eisenhower would win in a landslide, but given

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Speaker 2: that exit polls had the race neck and neck, that

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Speaker 2: prediction seemed bananas, so, supposedly, not wanting to screw up Remington,

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Speaker 2: Ran decided not to send that prediction on to CBS

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Speaker 2: in New York. Remington's second guest its own machine, which

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Speaker 2: left Collingwood hanging and CBS without a prediction to announce.

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Speaker 11: You're a very impolite in Shane, I must say, it.

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Speaker 2: Was as if the whole election had suddenly gone off script,

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Speaker 2: when in fact, so much of the campaign had been

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Speaker 2: so entirely scripted. There's more to this story. There are documents,

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Speaker 2: There is evidence. My producer Ben has filed a copy

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Speaker 2: of that campaign script in his desk herein the last archive.

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Speaker 2: So the supercomputer UNIVAC failed its first public audition as

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Speaker 2: the predictor of voter behavior, at least though it was

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Speaker 2: something obvious, a giant machine with these blinking lights right

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Speaker 2: there on television. A lot more subtle stuff changed during

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Speaker 2: that election, too, stuff that's been forgotten because now it's everywhere.

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Speaker 1: I for president, I.

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Speaker 4: For president, I for president, I thought president.

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Speaker 2: Television advertising that was new too, not jingles. There'd been

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Speaker 2: campaign songs since forever, but nineteen fifty two saw the

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Speaker 2: introduction of a particular kind of television advertising, the targeted

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Speaker 2: political ad. Lately, all political ads are targeted. They're targeted

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Speaker 2: by computers is unairring his missiles. But in nineteen fifty two,

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Speaker 2: targeting was done by hand, and political television advertising was

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Speaker 2: invented by a man named Rosser Reeves. Think Don Draper

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Speaker 2: and Madmen, but even slicker the very best Madison Avenue

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Speaker 2: could offer. Rosser Reeves he was the man. He owned

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Speaker 2: one of the world's big I just rubies. He led

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Speaker 2: the uschess team on a trip to the Soviet Union.

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Speaker 2: He invested in island real estate. He captained yachts. He

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Speaker 2: flew planes mainly, though he created modern television advertising.

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Speaker 10: Reeves decided that there were many advantages to be gained

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Speaker 10: by adopting a new form of political advertising, the short

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Speaker 10: spot commercial.

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Speaker 2: Signicholson, that executive from CBS who brought in the UNIVAC

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Speaker 2: he knew all about Reeves he later wrote about it.

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Speaker 10: He had a hunch that the sixty second advertising spot

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Speaker 10: could be used in the way the soap, food and

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Speaker 10: cigarette companies were using them with spectacular success.

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Speaker 2: In nineteen fifty two, Reeves took his talents to politics.

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Speaker 2: He went to the Republican Convention, the first convention broadcast

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Speaker 2: start to finish on television. Reeves was there, but instead

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Speaker 2: of watching from the convention hall, he watched the keynote

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Speaker 2: speech on TV from a hotel room. The crowds inside

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Speaker 2: the stadium were enthusiastic, but watching the convention on TV,

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Speaker 2: Reeves thought the speeches were dreadful, too many ideas, too

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Speaker 2: many words. So he devised a test to see which

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Speaker 2: people remembered better a televised speech or a televised commercial.

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Speaker 2: Less than ten percent of people remember the speech, ninety

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Speaker 2: one percent remember the commercial. Reeves thought that was because

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Speaker 2: speeches usually have a lot of ideas, too many for television.

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Speaker 2: He believed in something he called the unique selling proposition

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Speaker 2: the USP.

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Speaker 12: What is a USP. It's a theory of the ideal

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Speaker 12: selling concept. It is a condensation, a verbal shorthand, if

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Speaker 12: you will, of what makes a campaign work. It is

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Speaker 12: the hidden secret of literally thousands of the most successful

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Speaker 12: advertising campaigns ever written.

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Speaker 2: Reeves often made pitches over meetings at Manhattan's One Club,

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Speaker 2: where everyone was always several martinis deep. He told them

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Speaker 2: that his unique selling proposition had three rules.

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Speaker 12: Number one, each advertisement must make a proposition to the consumer,

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Speaker 12: not just words, not just product puffery. Each advertisement must

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Speaker 12: say to each reader, buy this product and you will

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Speaker 12: get this specific benefit. Number two, the proposition must be

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Speaker 12: the one that the competition either canoe or does not offer.

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Speaker 12: Number Three, the proposition must be so strong that it

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Speaker 12: could move the mass millions.

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Speaker 2: That's from Reeves's book Reality and Advertising. My producer Ben

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Speaker 2: and I decided to go get a copy of it.

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Speaker 2: So we went to the basement of Wider Library at

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Speaker 2: Harvard together. And when I say basement, I mean not

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Speaker 2: in the deepest sense. To get to Reeves, you take

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Speaker 2: the elevator four stories down and then you walk through

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Speaker 2: a tunnel. So the fucy tunnel, it's so much better

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Speaker 2: than you used to be.

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Speaker 10: Be plastic buckets down.

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Speaker 13: Here because they're just all these see all these pipes.

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Speaker 2: They would just do it, but they still has that humidity. No,

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Speaker 2: it's a humidity treatment smell. I think it would humiliate

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Speaker 2: Reeves to know this. But after you go through that

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Speaker 2: sweaty tunnel, you have to go down another level, down

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Speaker 2: another elevator to finally get to the stacks and the

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Speaker 2: shelf where his book is housed. His best advertisements all

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Speaker 2: follow those three rules of the USP. So Wonderbread helps

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Speaker 2: build strong bodies in twelve ways, andison gives you fast, fast,

385
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Speaker 2: fast relief. But my personal favorite was the campaign he

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Speaker 2: wrote for Eminem's.

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Speaker 6: Which han chocolate can not good hands.

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Speaker 2: That's ordinary chocolate can.

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Speaker 4: It's melted.

390
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Speaker 14: But this there's no chocolate min because amanams melt. Chocolate

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Speaker 14: melts in your mouth, not in your hand.

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Speaker 2: Reeves said Republicans should run ad spots, and Eisenhower, like

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Speaker 2: M and M's Ike's campaign, signed him right up. Even

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Speaker 2: though Eisenhower himself had yet to be convinced. Reeves took

395
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Speaker 2: six weeks off and holed himself up in a hotel

396
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Speaker 2: to write ad copy. He had all of Eisenhower's speech

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Speaker 2: is sent over, but he didn't read them.

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Speaker 12: I was too busy with the political mailstroam to sit

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Speaker 12: down personally and read all the Eisenhower's rather dreary speeches.

400
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Speaker 2: So we had other people do that. They drew up

401
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Speaker 2: a list of topics that the general favored. Reeves showed

402
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Speaker 2: that list to George Gallup, the pollster, who ran some

403
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Speaker 2: numbers and told Reeves which three topics pulled best with voters.

404
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Speaker 12: One corruption in government, two high prices and high taxes.

405
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Speaker 12: Three war.

406
00:24:56,475 --> 00:25:01,235
Speaker 2: Those three topics still pull well. They're evergreens today though

407
00:25:01,355 --> 00:25:05,835
Speaker 2: computer driven targeted advertising, polling and election predictions are all

408
00:25:05,875 --> 00:25:08,475
Speaker 2: tangled up on your iPhone as if they're one thing.

409
00:25:09,315 --> 00:25:12,515
Speaker 2: But they got tangled up in nineteen fifty two when

410
00:25:12,555 --> 00:25:15,915
Speaker 2: the pollsters and admin we're actually doing much the same

411
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Speaker 2: thing as the UNIVAC was trying to do, running the numbers,

412
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Speaker 2: coming up with a prediction. Are we okay with that?

413
00:25:22,595 --> 00:25:24,475
Speaker 2: I mean we all are, because this is our world.

414
00:25:24,475 --> 00:25:27,235
Speaker 2: But still, if we here in the last archive are

415
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Speaker 2: wondering who killed truth, I'm looking at you, Rosser, Reeves.

416
00:25:32,195 --> 00:25:33,755
Speaker 2: Reeves had hired a friend of his to run the

417
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Speaker 2: numbers for him, a guy named Michael Levin. Ben brought

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Speaker 2: copies of what he found in the archives when we

419
00:25:38,835 --> 00:25:42,395
Speaker 2: went looking for Reeves's book fifty thousand Leagues beneath the library.

420
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Speaker 1: This one is Michael Levin's plan. It's called how to

421
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Speaker 1: Ensure an Eisenhower victory in November. And this is what

422
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Speaker 1: Reeves commissioned his numbers guy Levin, who worked at a

423
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Speaker 1: different firm, Yeah, Yeah, to write up about basically how

424
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Speaker 1: to target the ads, where to run them, what counties,

425
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Speaker 1: how often.

426
00:25:59,835 --> 00:26:02,995
Speaker 2: It's a smoking gun of micro targeted advertising. Right here

427
00:26:03,035 --> 00:26:07,635
Speaker 2: we have ranked here. Levin carved the country in devoting blocks,

428
00:26:08,075 --> 00:26:10,475
Speaker 2: the southern vote, the black vote, the farm vote, the

429
00:26:10,515 --> 00:26:14,475
Speaker 2: middle class. He saw it this way. Since Roosevelt, most

430
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Speaker 2: of the country had voted Democratic, but that could change

431
00:26:17,835 --> 00:26:20,355
Speaker 2: now that the economy was good. People weren't so keen

432
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Speaker 2: on paying taxes anymore. They'd rather keep their money and

433
00:26:23,475 --> 00:26:25,035
Speaker 2: spend it on some of the things they saw in

434
00:26:25,075 --> 00:26:29,355
Speaker 2: all those television ads, dishwashers and dog food. To make

435
00:26:29,395 --> 00:26:32,475
Speaker 2: the electoral math work in Republicans favor, Levin said they

436
00:26:32,475 --> 00:26:34,955
Speaker 2: needed to flip the vote in forty nine counties in

437
00:26:34,995 --> 00:26:38,755
Speaker 2: twelve states where they narrowly lost the last election. Levin

438
00:26:38,795 --> 00:26:42,275
Speaker 2: called this block of states the Great Lakes Girdle. This

439
00:26:42,475 --> 00:26:44,835
Speaker 2: was at a time when, by the way, people call

440
00:26:44,955 --> 00:26:47,795
Speaker 2: parts of the country girdles, and now we call them belts,

441
00:26:48,115 --> 00:26:52,355
Speaker 2: which is sad to me. Anyway. Forget kissing babies, shaking hands,

442
00:26:52,355 --> 00:26:57,075
Speaker 2: and meeting voters, cultivating civic life and political debate. Instead,

443
00:26:57,355 --> 00:27:00,755
Speaker 2: Levin said, divide the electorate into market segments and then

444
00:27:00,835 --> 00:27:05,835
Speaker 2: blitz those key counties with the custom made TV ads.

445
00:27:06,995 --> 00:27:10,115
Speaker 12: He was there a new way of campaign that can

446
00:27:10,155 --> 00:27:14,595
Speaker 12: guarantee victory for Eisenhower in November. The answer is yes.

447
00:27:15,555 --> 00:27:18,755
Speaker 12: Most people don't know the power spot. However, here are

448
00:27:18,795 --> 00:27:22,075
Speaker 12: the cold facts. The humble radio or TV spot can

449
00:27:22,155 --> 00:27:25,435
Speaker 12: deliver more listeners for less money than any other form

450
00:27:25,475 --> 00:27:26,275
Speaker 12: of advertising.

451
00:27:28,515 --> 00:27:31,275
Speaker 2: This pitch, you may have noticed, sounds a little bit

452
00:27:31,315 --> 00:27:34,475
Speaker 2: different from the Lovin plan, but they were filed together

453
00:27:34,515 --> 00:27:36,235
Speaker 2: in Ross's papers in the archives.

454
00:27:36,315 --> 00:27:38,155
Speaker 1: This is kind of like lipstig on a pig, though

455
00:27:38,195 --> 00:27:40,435
Speaker 1: like at least reass just flipstick, no pig.

456
00:27:41,115 --> 00:27:46,875
Speaker 2: Here's the turn where commercial television advertising becomes political television

457
00:27:46,915 --> 00:27:50,515
Speaker 2: advertising just lipstick, no pig.

458
00:27:52,275 --> 00:27:55,795
Speaker 12: Let us repeat that the humble radio or TV spot

459
00:27:56,035 --> 00:27:59,755
Speaker 12: can deliver more listeners for less money than any other

460
00:27:59,875 --> 00:28:02,475
Speaker 12: form of advertising. It is a way of having a

461
00:28:02,475 --> 00:28:06,955
Speaker 12: big town meeting but letting sixty million people hear all

462
00:28:06,995 --> 00:28:10,515
Speaker 12: the questions and answers. This technique is I really suited

463
00:28:10,915 --> 00:28:14,915
Speaker 12: to Eisenhower's warm personality as opposed to the cold intellectual

464
00:28:14,915 --> 00:28:18,995
Speaker 12: approach of Adelais Stevenson. And because they are simple, because

465
00:28:19,035 --> 00:28:22,355
Speaker 12: they are quick, because they are short and uncomplicated, the

466
00:28:22,395 --> 00:28:24,435
Speaker 12: public will remember.

467
00:28:23,955 --> 00:28:28,955
Speaker 2: Them Lake Kendy, but he dirty hens problem solved, vote Eisenhower.

468
00:28:29,075 --> 00:28:33,675
Speaker 12: In other words, they will penetrate, Yes, they will penetrate

469
00:28:33,875 --> 00:28:37,675
Speaker 12: the brains of sixty million critical voters, where the more

470
00:28:37,715 --> 00:28:42,435
Speaker 12: complicated and more elaborate political speeches won't be remembered. And

471
00:28:42,475 --> 00:28:45,355
Speaker 12: it's what the critical voters have in their brains when

472
00:28:45,355 --> 00:28:47,315
Speaker 12: they go into the poland booths the counts.

473
00:28:49,675 --> 00:28:52,515
Speaker 2: But before he could get to voters' brains, the eminem

474
00:28:52,555 --> 00:28:57,195
Speaker 2: men first had to get General Eisenhower on board. Eisenhower

475
00:28:57,275 --> 00:29:00,595
Speaker 2: was worried that these spots would be undignified. After all,

476
00:29:00,675 --> 00:29:04,715
Speaker 2: at the time Eisenhower was president of Columbia University. He

477
00:29:04,835 --> 00:29:07,355
Speaker 2: wasn't as a palled as ADLEI Stevenson would have been,

478
00:29:08,275 --> 00:29:11,715
Speaker 2: but he was still worried. So Reeves met the General

479
00:29:11,755 --> 00:29:15,555
Speaker 2: for lunch, probably over scotch, and wore him down.

480
00:29:15,875 --> 00:29:19,235
Speaker 12: Well, General, do you think it's all right for candidate

481
00:29:19,315 --> 00:29:22,075
Speaker 12: to make a thirty minute speech on television or radio?

482
00:29:23,955 --> 00:29:24,155
Speaker 10: Yes?

483
00:29:24,515 --> 00:29:27,515
Speaker 12: Or would it be dignified to make a fifteen minute speech?

484
00:29:28,635 --> 00:29:28,835
Speaker 14: Yes?

485
00:29:29,275 --> 00:29:32,155
Speaker 12: Would it be in order, perhaps to make a five

486
00:29:32,315 --> 00:29:33,035
Speaker 12: minute speech?

487
00:29:34,235 --> 00:29:34,475
Speaker 9: Yes?

488
00:29:34,995 --> 00:29:37,155
Speaker 10: I am sure a five minutes speech would.

489
00:29:36,995 --> 00:29:39,755
Speaker 12: Be in order if we could cut that speech to

490
00:29:39,795 --> 00:29:41,675
Speaker 12: one minute. Is there anything wrong with that?

491
00:29:43,315 --> 00:29:45,395
Speaker 10: Okay, let's go ahead.

492
00:29:47,675 --> 00:29:51,515
Speaker 2: That's Reeves's account. Anyway. They filmed the campaign spots all

493
00:29:51,555 --> 00:29:55,395
Speaker 2: in one day in Manhattan. The original idea was to

494
00:29:55,475 --> 00:29:58,515
Speaker 2: run the spots in those targeted markets we now call

495
00:29:58,555 --> 00:29:59,955
Speaker 2: them swing precincts.

496
00:30:00,475 --> 00:30:02,395
Speaker 4: Eisenhower answers America.

497
00:30:02,915 --> 00:30:06,115
Speaker 2: In each spot, an everyday person asks the General a question.

498
00:30:06,715 --> 00:30:10,595
Speaker 2: Reeves had Eisenhower's answers written on huge posters. Eisenhower wouldn't

499
00:30:10,595 --> 00:30:13,275
Speaker 2: have to wears glasses to read them. The story goes

500
00:30:13,275 --> 00:30:16,795
Speaker 2: that Eisenhower worked through Reeves's script so fast that Reeves

501
00:30:16,835 --> 00:30:21,395
Speaker 2: grabbed his typewriter and started to dash off news scripts spots.

502
00:30:21,195 --> 00:30:25,515
Speaker 9: On the spot, General, the Democrats are telling me I

503
00:30:25,555 --> 00:30:26,635
Speaker 9: never had it so good.

504
00:30:27,195 --> 00:30:28,195
Speaker 4: Can that be true?

505
00:30:28,235 --> 00:30:31,475
Speaker 9: When America is billions in depth, when prices up doubles,

506
00:30:31,515 --> 00:30:34,435
Speaker 9: when Texas break our backs and we are still fighting

507
00:30:34,435 --> 00:30:38,675
Speaker 9: in Korea? Is tragic and it's time for the change.

508
00:30:39,595 --> 00:30:42,715
Speaker 2: They filmed forty spots that day. A few days later,

509
00:30:42,875 --> 00:30:45,715
Speaker 2: the crew grabbed some tourists from around Midtown to go

510
00:30:45,755 --> 00:30:48,995
Speaker 2: on camera. The tourists were then prompted to ask the

511
00:30:49,115 --> 00:30:54,035
Speaker 2: very questions Eisenhower had already answered. Then Reeves's producer stitched

512
00:30:54,075 --> 00:30:57,595
Speaker 2: the spots together. They were the first television ads featuring

513
00:30:57,635 --> 00:30:59,435
Speaker 2: an American presidential candidate.

514
00:31:00,635 --> 00:31:02,315
Speaker 9: You know what things cost today?

515
00:31:02,635 --> 00:31:05,035
Speaker 2: High prices are just driving me crazy.

516
00:31:05,635 --> 00:31:08,435
Speaker 9: Yes, my Nami gets after me about the high cost

517
00:31:08,435 --> 00:31:11,795
Speaker 9: of living. The reason why I say is time for

518
00:31:11,835 --> 00:31:14,755
Speaker 9: the change. Time to get back to an honest dollar

519
00:31:15,035 --> 00:31:16,355
Speaker 9: and an honest dollar's worth.

520
00:31:17,195 --> 00:31:21,475
Speaker 2: At the filming, someone overheard Eisenhower say to think that

521
00:31:21,515 --> 00:31:25,915
Speaker 2: an old soldier should come to this. But Rosser Reeves

522
00:31:25,995 --> 00:31:31,195
Speaker 2: was delighted. Here was the unique selling proposition president. But wait,

523
00:31:31,875 --> 00:31:34,475
Speaker 2: the Democrats had a new television strategy too.

524
00:31:34,795 --> 00:31:37,555
Speaker 4: A man you candy leave.

525
00:31:37,555 --> 00:31:39,355
Speaker 10: In adlei e.

526
00:31:39,435 --> 00:31:43,235
Speaker 2: Stevenson would go on TV and read his speeches, speeches

527
00:31:43,275 --> 00:31:45,995
Speaker 2: that were at the shortest nearly a half an hour long,

528
00:31:46,475 --> 00:31:49,115
Speaker 2: and when he went over that time, the networks would

529
00:31:49,155 --> 00:31:52,995
Speaker 2: just cut him off mid sentence. The Stephenson campaign was

530
00:31:53,035 --> 00:31:56,115
Speaker 2: bringing sticks to a knife fight. The tragedy of it

531
00:31:56,195 --> 00:31:58,475
Speaker 2: all was that Stevenson had a lot of important things

532
00:31:58,515 --> 00:32:00,435
Speaker 2: to say about the problems confronting the nation.

533
00:32:01,275 --> 00:32:04,315
Speaker 15: Better we lose the election than myth lead the people,

534
00:32:04,795 --> 00:32:08,475
Speaker 15: and better we lose than misgovern the people. Help me

535
00:32:08,595 --> 00:32:11,835
Speaker 15: to do the job in this world of conflict and

536
00:32:11,875 --> 00:32:14,155
Speaker 15: of campaign. Help me to do the job in these

537
00:32:14,235 --> 00:32:17,315
Speaker 15: years of darkness, of doubt and of prices which stretched

538
00:32:17,395 --> 00:32:21,395
Speaker 15: beyond the horizon of tonight's happy visions. And we will

539
00:32:21,555 --> 00:32:26,595
Speaker 15: justify our glorious pass and the loyalty of silent millions

540
00:32:26,755 --> 00:32:31,635
Speaker 15: who look to us for compassion, for understanding, and for

541
00:32:31,715 --> 00:32:32,555
Speaker 15: honest purpose.

542
00:32:33,555 --> 00:32:37,315
Speaker 2: Honest purpose was one of Stevenson's big themes. Treat people

543
00:32:37,315 --> 00:32:40,515
Speaker 2: like citizens, don't treat us like idiots, like consumers who

544
00:32:40,515 --> 00:32:43,995
Speaker 2: can be predicted and persuaded. But Stevenson wasn't any good

545
00:32:44,035 --> 00:32:49,315
Speaker 2: at getting that message across on television. Democrats desperate did

546
00:32:49,355 --> 00:32:51,875
Speaker 2: everything they could. They even got a hold of Rosserres's

547
00:32:51,915 --> 00:32:55,315
Speaker 2: advertising plan, which was supposed to be top secret. It

548
00:32:55,435 --> 00:32:58,155
Speaker 2: made Stevenson's campaign advisors steaming mad.

549
00:32:58,955 --> 00:33:04,555
Speaker 16: They've invented a new kind of campaign, a campaign conceived

550
00:33:04,755 --> 00:33:07,515
Speaker 16: not by men who want us to face the crucial

551
00:33:07,595 --> 00:33:11,595
Speaker 16: issues of the day, but by the high powered hocksters

552
00:33:11,635 --> 00:33:16,315
Speaker 16: of Madison Avenue. They've conceived not an election campaign in

553
00:33:16,355 --> 00:33:21,235
Speaker 16: the usual sense, but a super colossal, multi million dollar

554
00:33:21,395 --> 00:33:26,235
Speaker 16: production designed to sell an inadequate ticket to the American

555
00:33:26,275 --> 00:33:31,715
Speaker 16: people in precisely the way they sell soap, toothpaste, hair tonic,

556
00:33:32,515 --> 00:33:34,315
Speaker 16: or bubblegum.

557
00:33:34,195 --> 00:33:35,195
Speaker 12: Or M and MS.

558
00:33:35,715 --> 00:33:38,595
Speaker 2: Stevenson's campaign even asked the FCZ to look into the

559
00:33:38,675 --> 00:33:43,475
Speaker 2: legality of the Republican campaign ad spots. They figured, stuff's

560
00:33:43,515 --> 00:33:46,075
Speaker 2: got to be illegal, wasn't in an affront to everything

561
00:33:46,075 --> 00:33:49,115
Speaker 2: a democracy stood for, faith in the voter to weigh

562
00:33:49,115 --> 00:33:52,355
Speaker 2: the hard facts and make the call. But the FCC

563
00:33:52,555 --> 00:33:54,915
Speaker 2: decided there was nothing to be done. In the end,

564
00:33:55,115 --> 00:33:58,635
Speaker 2: Republicans spent one point five million dollars on television advertising

565
00:33:58,675 --> 00:34:03,955
Speaker 2: in nineteen fifty two, more than ten times what Democrats spent. Also,

566
00:34:04,275 --> 00:34:08,955
Speaker 2: Stevenson never appeared in any of the Democrats ads amazingly.

567
00:34:09,035 --> 00:34:12,555
Speaker 2: By election day, Stevenson was still a strong contender. He

568
00:34:12,635 --> 00:34:15,035
Speaker 2: and Eisenhower were neck and neck, at least as the

569
00:34:15,075 --> 00:34:18,275
Speaker 2: polls had it. I've got those predictions on an old,

570
00:34:18,355 --> 00:34:21,635
Speaker 2: yellowed punch card tacked to a bulletin board here in

571
00:34:22,355 --> 00:34:31,475
Speaker 2: the Last Archive. Election Day nineteen fifty two began normally enough.

572
00:34:31,915 --> 00:34:35,755
Speaker 2: It just didn't end that way. At seven fifteen that morning,

573
00:34:36,115 --> 00:34:40,795
Speaker 2: Dwight Eisenhower's train pulled into Grand Central Station, just a

574
00:34:40,835 --> 00:34:44,835
Speaker 2: few floors beneath the CBS news studio. Ike and Mami

575
00:34:45,035 --> 00:34:47,955
Speaker 2: traveled to the Upper West Side to vote, and then

576
00:34:47,995 --> 00:34:51,555
Speaker 2: they retired to their apartment. That evening, they'd go to

577
00:34:51,595 --> 00:34:57,035
Speaker 2: the Commodore Hotel to wait for the results. Adlai E. Stevenson, meanwhile,

578
00:34:57,355 --> 00:35:01,075
Speaker 2: was at the governor's mansion in Illinois. I've talked before

579
00:35:01,155 --> 00:35:04,675
Speaker 2: here on the Last Archive about the importance of historical imagination,

580
00:35:05,315 --> 00:35:08,715
Speaker 2: and I'm trying, but I just can't picture Stevenson watching

581
00:35:08,755 --> 00:35:11,995
Speaker 2: the return ins on tele television. The rest of the

582
00:35:12,035 --> 00:35:14,275
Speaker 2: country was watching, though, and a whole lot of them

583
00:35:14,595 --> 00:35:19,195
Speaker 2: were watching CBS. This election had been all about television

584
00:35:19,275 --> 00:35:22,915
Speaker 2: and advertising, and now the election coverage featured a first

585
00:35:22,955 --> 00:35:26,235
Speaker 2: of its kind product placement for the computer, the UNIVAC.

586
00:35:27,035 --> 00:35:29,395
Speaker 2: Like I've said that part was going badly.

587
00:35:30,235 --> 00:35:31,435
Speaker 4: Have you got a prediction for us?

588
00:35:31,515 --> 00:35:31,995
Speaker 11: YUNIVAC.

589
00:35:35,555 --> 00:35:38,475
Speaker 2: I have to say I totally feel for Charles Collingwood.

590
00:35:38,755 --> 00:35:42,275
Speaker 2: He's on live television. The fate of CBS News probably

591
00:35:42,315 --> 00:35:44,715
Speaker 2: seemed to turn on how well the network would cover

592
00:35:44,795 --> 00:35:49,315
Speaker 2: this election. They'd spent gazillions on this insane production and

593
00:35:49,355 --> 00:35:52,075
Speaker 2: it's a dud.

594
00:35:52,395 --> 00:35:57,515
Speaker 11: Univac our fabulous mathematical brain is done in Philadelphia mulling

595
00:35:57,555 --> 00:35:59,675
Speaker 11: over the returns that we've sent him so far.

596
00:36:00,155 --> 00:36:03,155
Speaker 4: He's sitting there in his corner, humming away. A few

597
00:36:03,235 --> 00:36:03,755
Speaker 4: minutes ago.

598
00:36:03,875 --> 00:36:06,075
Speaker 11: I asked him what his prediction was, and they sent

599
00:36:06,115 --> 00:36:09,955
Speaker 11: me back a very caustic answer for a machine that

600
00:36:09,995 --> 00:36:12,475
Speaker 11: if we continue to be so late in sending him

601
00:36:12,515 --> 00:36:15,195
Speaker 11: the results, it's going to take him a few minutes.

602
00:36:14,915 --> 00:36:17,195
Speaker 12: To find out just what the prediction is going to be.

603
00:36:17,755 --> 00:36:20,675
Speaker 11: So he's not ready yet with his prediction, but we're

604
00:36:20,715 --> 00:36:22,195
Speaker 11: going to go to him in just.

605
00:36:22,155 --> 00:36:22,835
Speaker 12: A little while.

606
00:36:23,435 --> 00:36:26,395
Speaker 2: UNIVAC be damned. The Eisenhower campaign was getting its own

607
00:36:26,475 --> 00:36:29,955
Speaker 2: results by phone over at the Commodore Hotel, a confident.

608
00:36:30,035 --> 00:36:34,075
Speaker 2: Eisenhower was getting ready to celebrate. CBS though still didn't

609
00:36:34,075 --> 00:36:34,875
Speaker 2: want to call the race.

610
00:36:35,075 --> 00:36:37,515
Speaker 11: And as I was saying that, as a great believer

611
00:36:37,675 --> 00:36:40,075
Speaker 11: in the machine, we're having a little bit of trouble

612
00:36:40,195 --> 00:36:44,195
Speaker 11: with UNIVAC. It seems that he's refilling against the human element.

613
00:36:44,755 --> 00:36:48,355
Speaker 2: About ten thirty, CBS finally got a prediction from the machine.

614
00:36:48,475 --> 00:36:50,635
Speaker 13: Yes, univacs finally come through.

615
00:36:50,955 --> 00:36:51,875
Speaker 4: Good give it to us.

616
00:36:51,955 --> 00:36:58,515
Speaker 13: Huh, we've got Stephenson twenty stays Eisenhower twenty eight stays.

617
00:36:58,995 --> 00:37:02,115
Speaker 13: That adds up to an electoral vote for Stephenson of

618
00:37:02,195 --> 00:37:07,355
Speaker 13: two hundred and seventeen for Eisenhower three hundred and fourteen.

619
00:37:07,835 --> 00:37:11,075
Speaker 2: A prediction at last, but an outcome that just about

620
00:37:11,115 --> 00:37:13,995
Speaker 2: anyone watching closely couldn't have predicted by that time of

621
00:37:14,075 --> 00:37:17,115
Speaker 2: the night. And then a half an hour before midnight,

622
00:37:17,515 --> 00:37:21,155
Speaker 2: UNIVAC seemed to go entirely off the rails. It predicted

623
00:37:21,195 --> 00:37:25,195
Speaker 2: that well Eisenhower would win the electoral vote, Stevenson would

624
00:37:25,195 --> 00:37:29,635
Speaker 2: win the popular vote. No human was predicting anything like that,

625
00:37:29,875 --> 00:37:31,275
Speaker 2: not even Walter Cronkite.

626
00:37:32,235 --> 00:37:37,155
Speaker 17: Charlie very interesting, indeed, on that UNIVAK prediction, we who

627
00:37:37,195 --> 00:37:40,115
Speaker 17: are on way human and have to operate with the

628
00:37:40,195 --> 00:37:44,275
Speaker 17: flesh and blood instead of with electronic gadgets. I still

629
00:37:44,355 --> 00:37:46,475
Speaker 17: think this thing looks like it's pretty much on the

630
00:37:46,475 --> 00:37:48,275
Speaker 17: Eisenhower side at the moment.

631
00:37:48,835 --> 00:37:49,035
Speaker 14: I know.

632
00:37:49,075 --> 00:37:51,395
Speaker 2: It seems as though Univak was a complete disaster on

633
00:37:51,435 --> 00:37:54,315
Speaker 2: election night in nineteen fifty two, But it turned out

634
00:37:54,435 --> 00:37:58,595
Speaker 2: that early in the night UNIVAC had predicted an Eisenhower landslide.

635
00:37:59,035 --> 00:38:01,595
Speaker 2: The computer min at Remington Ran, thinking the election was

636
00:38:01,595 --> 00:38:03,995
Speaker 2: neck and neck and afraid of the machine making mistake

637
00:38:04,035 --> 00:38:08,155
Speaker 2: on live television, just hadn't passed that prediction on to CBS.

638
00:38:08,675 --> 00:38:11,835
Speaker 2: Remington RAN's entire interested in collaborating the CBS had been

639
00:38:11,835 --> 00:38:15,155
Speaker 2: to demonstrate the usefulness of a general purpose digital computer.

640
00:38:16,035 --> 00:38:20,715
Speaker 2: What if it failed? Disaster, So the UNIVAC people, after

641
00:38:20,755 --> 00:38:24,235
Speaker 2: suppressing that early prediction of an Eisenhower landslide, had gotten

642
00:38:24,275 --> 00:38:26,915
Speaker 2: desperate and had tinkered with the data to see if

643
00:38:26,915 --> 00:38:28,995
Speaker 2: they could get the machine to make a prediction that

644
00:38:29,035 --> 00:38:30,035
Speaker 2: didn't seem nuts.

645
00:38:30,395 --> 00:38:33,675
Speaker 17: The chances are one hundred to one in favor of

646
00:38:33,835 --> 00:38:35,075
Speaker 17: General Eisenhower.

647
00:38:35,395 --> 00:38:38,075
Speaker 6: I might note that Yunivak is running a few moments

648
00:38:38,115 --> 00:38:39,355
Speaker 6: behind at morrow.

649
00:38:39,435 --> 00:38:43,315
Speaker 2: However, just before midnight, after veterans. CBS reporter Edward R.

650
00:38:43,435 --> 00:38:46,995
Speaker 2: Morrow called the election for Eisenhower. CBS had finally announced

651
00:38:46,995 --> 00:38:50,875
Speaker 2: that early UNIVAC prediction. To viewers at home, it looked

652
00:38:50,915 --> 00:38:54,475
Speaker 2: like the UNIVAK was the slowest of all predictors. Remington

653
00:38:54,555 --> 00:38:55,995
Speaker 2: Rand had some explaining to do.

654
00:38:56,875 --> 00:39:01,035
Speaker 13: Well. We had a lot of trouble tonight. Strangely enough,

655
00:39:01,115 --> 00:39:04,035
Speaker 13: they were all of humor and not the machine.

656
00:39:04,435 --> 00:39:07,795
Speaker 2: Remington Rand guy tried desperately to explain what had gone wrong.

657
00:39:08,195 --> 00:39:12,235
Speaker 2: The problem, he insisted, had never been with the UNIVAC, so.

658
00:39:12,355 --> 00:39:14,995
Speaker 13: We should have had nerve enough to believe the machine

659
00:39:15,035 --> 00:39:18,395
Speaker 13: and the first flight it was right. We were wrong.

660
00:39:20,075 --> 00:39:23,315
Speaker 2: Fifteen minutes later, an aid to Adelie Stevenson told reporters

661
00:39:23,435 --> 00:39:26,355
Speaker 2: that the candidate was conceding. He'd lost to the guy

662
00:39:26,395 --> 00:39:29,355
Speaker 2: with the thirty second TV ADS in a vote predicted

663
00:39:29,395 --> 00:39:37,835
Speaker 2: by a TV gimmick the supercomputer UNIVAC. Stevenson, after delivering

664
00:39:37,835 --> 00:39:40,915
Speaker 2: the concession speech, headed back to the governor's mansion, where

665
00:39:40,955 --> 00:39:44,315
Speaker 2: guests had gathered. One of them tried to boost his spirits,

666
00:39:44,595 --> 00:39:49,035
Speaker 2: told him that he'd educated the country. Stevenson supposedly said

667
00:39:49,115 --> 00:39:55,235
Speaker 2: glumly that the American people had flunked his course. He'd

668
00:39:55,235 --> 00:39:58,275
Speaker 2: wanted his campaign to show that truth can win. He

669
00:39:58,355 --> 00:40:01,155
Speaker 2: wanted to demonstrate that you could run for president and

670
00:40:01,235 --> 00:40:04,835
Speaker 2: win the White House by talking honestly about actual issues

671
00:40:05,035 --> 00:40:08,675
Speaker 2: in all their complexity, not by making thirty second ad

672
00:40:08,715 --> 00:40:13,875
Speaker 2: spots that turned pow Celtics into Eminem's. But truth didn't win,

673
00:40:14,675 --> 00:40:19,075
Speaker 2: and the American people failed Professor Stevenson's exam, which, when

674
00:40:19,115 --> 00:40:21,515
Speaker 2: you think about it, was a lousy way to run

675
00:40:21,555 --> 00:40:32,315
Speaker 2: a campaign. No wonder he lost, but so did the country.

676
00:40:32,755 --> 00:40:34,995
Speaker 2: Nineteen fifty two set a new course for the United

677
00:40:35,035 --> 00:40:38,795
Speaker 2: States and for American politics the way every election does,

678
00:40:38,955 --> 00:40:42,395
Speaker 2: by changing our president. But it also changed how we

679
00:40:42,435 --> 00:40:45,555
Speaker 2: elect a president, and it even changed how we know things.

680
00:40:46,515 --> 00:40:49,235
Speaker 2: The day after the election, Edward R. Murrow talked about

681
00:40:49,315 --> 00:40:52,275
Speaker 2: voters the way Americans like to think of themselves, self

682
00:40:52,315 --> 00:40:54,075
Speaker 2: determining and unknowable.

683
00:40:55,555 --> 00:40:58,555
Speaker 8: To me, the most impressive thing about tonight is again

684
00:40:58,635 --> 00:41:02,035
Speaker 8: the demonstration that the people of this country are sovereign,

685
00:41:02,915 --> 00:41:06,515
Speaker 8: that they are unpredictable, and that, somehow, in a fashion

686
00:41:06,555 --> 00:41:09,555
Speaker 8: that is as mysterious upholsters as it is the reporter,

687
00:41:10,475 --> 00:41:13,795
Speaker 8: the great normal majority in this country made up fits

688
00:41:13,875 --> 00:41:16,435
Speaker 8: mine as to the man that wanted to leave it.

689
00:41:17,915 --> 00:41:21,715
Speaker 2: Maybe polsters and advertising agencies and computers can predict how

690
00:41:21,795 --> 00:41:25,555
Speaker 2: voters behave. Maybe they can change how voters behave. But

691
00:41:25,595 --> 00:41:29,235
Speaker 2: should they? What if the very accuracy of those predictions

692
00:41:29,395 --> 00:41:32,115
Speaker 2: means that citizens lose faith in the evidence of what

693
00:41:32,155 --> 00:41:34,555
Speaker 2: they see with their own eyes, lose faith in the

694
00:41:34,555 --> 00:41:37,835
Speaker 2: political process. What if they really take to heart the

695
00:41:37,915 --> 00:41:41,275
Speaker 2: idea behind the well targeted ad campaign, in the computerized prediction,

696
00:41:41,715 --> 00:41:44,915
Speaker 2: and conclude that we behave as predictable consumers, not as

697
00:41:44,915 --> 00:41:52,515
Speaker 2: individual citizens. Four years later, during the election of nineteen

698
00:41:52,555 --> 00:41:57,075
Speaker 2: fifty six, adlest Stephenson took on Eisenhower again, and this

699
00:41:57,195 --> 00:41:59,555
Speaker 2: time he too appeared in commercials.

700
00:41:59,995 --> 00:42:03,475
Speaker 14: It's wonderful I was hitting right here in my own library.

701
00:42:04,355 --> 00:42:07,315
Speaker 14: Thanks to television, I can talk to millions of people

702
00:42:07,875 --> 00:42:10,435
Speaker 14: that I couldn't reach any other way.

703
00:42:11,155 --> 00:42:16,075
Speaker 2: They were TV commercials, but really they were anti TV commercials.

704
00:42:16,995 --> 00:42:20,835
Speaker 14: I can talk to you, yes, but I can't listen

705
00:42:20,875 --> 00:42:25,235
Speaker 14: to you. I can't hear about your problems, about your

706
00:42:25,355 --> 00:42:29,355
Speaker 14: hopes and your affairs. To do that, I've got to

707
00:42:29,355 --> 00:42:32,035
Speaker 14: go out and see you in person, and that's what

708
00:42:32,075 --> 00:42:36,275
Speaker 14: I've been doing. So finally, I hope that the next

709
00:42:36,275 --> 00:42:39,235
Speaker 14: time we meet it will be person to person and

710
00:42:39,355 --> 00:42:40,075
Speaker 14: face to face.

711
00:42:40,715 --> 00:42:43,715
Speaker 2: Stevenson wanted you to know it was all props, all

712
00:42:43,755 --> 00:42:47,435
Speaker 2: fake TV ads were just as fake as dummy computers

713
00:42:47,435 --> 00:42:50,715
Speaker 2: with Christmas lights. But it was no use, and it

714
00:42:50,795 --> 00:42:54,635
Speaker 2: was too late. Citizens had become consumers shopping for the

715
00:42:54,635 --> 00:42:58,715
Speaker 2: best deal. Politics had become just another con the hard sell,

716
00:42:59,035 --> 00:43:03,875
Speaker 2: face to face, fat chance. Campaigns would get glossier and glitzier.

717
00:43:04,435 --> 00:43:10,715
Speaker 2: Elections would be predicted by faster and faster computers. In

718
00:43:10,795 --> 00:43:14,635
Speaker 2: nineteen fifty six, President Eisenhower had new ads.

719
00:43:14,315 --> 00:43:18,755
Speaker 7: To lower taxes, higher taxes, record employment, unemployment, peace or

720
00:43:18,995 --> 00:43:20,155
Speaker 7: asked wages.

721
00:43:19,835 --> 00:43:20,475
Speaker 6: Lower pay.

722
00:43:20,635 --> 00:43:22,475
Speaker 5: Late's right, centralization of government?

723
00:43:22,675 --> 00:43:23,995
Speaker 4: Whoa stop?

724
00:43:24,955 --> 00:43:25,715
Speaker 5: I've tried.

725
00:43:26,315 --> 00:43:30,555
Speaker 3: I've listened to everybody on TV and radio. I've read

726
00:43:30,555 --> 00:43:35,115
Speaker 3: the papers and magazines. I've tried, but I'm still confused.

727
00:43:35,555 --> 00:43:40,155
Speaker 3: Who's right, What's right? What should I believe? What are

728
00:43:40,195 --> 00:43:42,595
Speaker 3: the facts? How can I tell?

729
00:43:44,875 --> 00:43:48,675
Speaker 2: Voters became irritated and impatient, looking for the quick fix.

730
00:43:49,595 --> 00:43:55,995
Speaker 2: Eisenhower answers America the easy answer, what are the facts?

731
00:43:56,875 --> 00:43:59,995
Speaker 2: When politics becomes big business, the facts of the matter

732
00:44:00,315 --> 00:44:05,715
Speaker 2: become harder and harder to tell, especially outside of the

733
00:44:05,795 --> 00:44:21,435
Speaker 2: Last Archive. The Last Archive is produced by Sophie Crane,

734
00:44:21,475 --> 00:44:24,755
Speaker 2: mckibbon and ben Netta Faffrey. Our editor is Julia Barton,

735
00:44:24,915 --> 00:44:28,355
Speaker 2: and our executive producer is Mia Lobel. Jason Gambrell and

736
00:44:28,395 --> 00:44:32,955
Speaker 2: Martine Gonzalez are engineers. Fact checking by Amy Gaines. Original

737
00:44:32,995 --> 00:44:36,955
Speaker 2: music by Matthias Bossi and John Evans of Stellwagon Symfinette.

738
00:44:37,115 --> 00:44:39,475
Speaker 2: Many of our sound effects are from Harry Jeannette Junior

739
00:44:39,555 --> 00:44:44,355
Speaker 2: and the Star Jeanette Foundation. Our fool Proof players are Barlow, Adamson,

740
00:44:44,675 --> 00:44:49,395
Speaker 2: Daniel Berger, Jones, Jesse Hinson, John Kuntz, Becca A. Lewis

741
00:44:49,715 --> 00:44:53,275
Speaker 2: and Maurice Emmanuel Parent. The Last Archive is brought to

742
00:44:53,315 --> 00:44:57,715
Speaker 2: you by Pushkin Industries. Special thanks to Ryan McKittrick in

743
00:44:57,755 --> 00:45:02,035
Speaker 2: the American Repertory Theater, to Alex Allenson and the Bridge

744
00:45:02,035 --> 00:45:05,195
Speaker 2: Sound in stage, to Simon Leake, and to the Wisconsin

745
00:45:05,275 --> 00:45:10,035
Speaker 2: Historical Society. Footage provided by Veritone at Pushkin thanks to

746
00:45:10,075 --> 00:45:15,555
Speaker 2: Heather Fane, Maya Kaynigg, Carly Migliori, Emily Rostick, Maggie Taylor,

747
00:45:15,995 --> 00:45:21,195
Speaker 2: and Jacob Weisberg. Our research assistants are Michelle Gou, Olivia Oldham,

748
00:45:21,515 --> 00:45:26,675
Speaker 2: Henrietta Riley Oliver Ruskin Cuts and Emily Spector. I'm Jill

749
00:45:26,715 --> 00:45:27,035
Speaker 2: Lapour