Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm
Speaker 1: your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris.
Speaker 2: Eighty.
Speaker 1: Week two is done. It is time to look ahead
Speaker 1: to week three and give our three best bets or
Speaker 1: six if you include our guest, who is my old friend,
Speaker 1: Alex Kaloj from the Action Network. You can find him
Speaker 1: on Twitter at aj Kaloj. I'm not going to spell
Speaker 1: his last name. He can do that for you if
Speaker 1: you want, Alex. It's been a long time to be
Speaker 1: caught up. How you doing doing well?
Speaker 2: Man, been a couple of years, But excited to chop
Speaker 2: it up and talk a little Week three with you.
Speaker 1: It is very exciting. You do great work over there
Speaker 1: at the Action Network, so I'm excited to hear about
Speaker 1: your picks right now so I can trail them and
Speaker 1: then take credit for them, as I often do with
Speaker 1: everything that you do. So, as I said, we're going
Speaker 1: to do our three best bets for the week. We're
Speaker 1: gonna whatever we want, spread over under whatever we want
Speaker 1: to do, even moneyline if we wanted to, and then
Speaker 1: we're just going to quickly run through all the remaining
Speaker 1: spreads of the games that we didn't pick talk about
Speaker 1: whether we like any of them. But before we do,
Speaker 1: let's get some housekeeping out of the way. First. The
Speaker 1: offer from bet MGM new customers bet ten dollars, win
Speaker 1: two hundred dollars if your team scores a touchdown. So again,
Speaker 1: you bet ten dollars on either team. You win two
Speaker 1: hundred dollars in free bets. If the team you bet
Speaker 1: on scores a touchdown. That's code Juice one hundred. Again,
Speaker 1: I've given this before.
Speaker 2: Juice.
Speaker 1: The Daily Juice is our other podcast hosted by Matt Perrault.
Speaker 1: Again Daily Podcasts would you should be subscribing to, But
Speaker 1: the code is Juice one hundred over at bet MGM. Finally,
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Speaker 1: that counts as three times be entry. All right, we're
Speaker 1: gonna get going here. I will give the consensus lines
Speaker 1: over at bettingpros dot Com just so everybody knows. But
Speaker 1: there are obviously different books which you can also see
Speaker 1: last week Bill. Very quickly, let's go through what we did.
Speaker 1: Our guest Rich Ryan. He hit on the Panthers plus
Speaker 1: three and a half, not close, but he did miss
Speaker 1: on the Jaguars plus six and the Texans Browns under
Speaker 1: forty seven and a half. I hit on the Vikings
Speaker 1: getting three and a half from the Cardinals, the Titans
Speaker 1: getting five and a half from the Seahawks, but I
Speaker 1: missed on the Dolphins getting three and a half from
Speaker 1: the Bills. Narrow miss by thirty two points. But that's fine.
Speaker 1: We're gonna do better this week. Alex, you were the
Speaker 1: guest start us off. What is your favorite bet for
Speaker 1: Week three of the NFL season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my favorite bet is, unfortunately, the one game on
Speaker 2: the board that I scanned and said, well, they're gonna
Speaker 2: be like fifteen hundred yards and a combined point total
Speaker 2: like thirty just because and that was the Cardinals Jags
Speaker 2: over fifty two. I honestly thought it was just a
Speaker 2: soft number at open. It kind of scares the hell
Speaker 2: out of me that there's bet and zero resistance on
Speaker 2: the total. But this is basically the epitome of if
Speaker 2: the Jaguars are going to be the team that stops
Speaker 2: the Cardinals and Kyler Murray, I will pay to watch
Speaker 2: it happen. I had a good buddy who made a
Speaker 2: pretty good point. Although it's a cross country trip and
Speaker 2: an early star for a West Coast team, it's gonna
Speaker 2: be hot in Florida and a defense that's been on
Speaker 2: the field for a long time has to chase around
Speaker 2: a quarterback that can't be tackled. The Jaguars defense, to me,
Speaker 2: is just absolutely awful and has been overshadowed with the
Speaker 2: Urban and Trevor Lawrence news. They played Tyrod Taylor and
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater, two quarterbacks who are allergic to YPA, I mean,
Speaker 2: two of just bland game managers, and they both just
Speaker 2: riped the Jaguars up. So to me, this was just
Speaker 2: a play of I think the Cardinals are gonna score.
Speaker 2: It will not really a much of a hot take there.
Speaker 2: They've done whatever they wanted the last two weeks and
Speaker 2: they look like they're having fun. And admittedly I'm not
Speaker 2: a big Cliff Kingsbury guy, but he just it just
Speaker 2: seems like he's actually having fun, and they're using every
Speaker 2: single receiver that they have and again having fun in
Speaker 2: the process. And really the only upside for Jet the
Speaker 2: Jaguars offense here is being able to throw the ball,
Speaker 2: so a lot of Trevor Lawrence passing attempts. I think
Speaker 2: if you like the over, you have to like the
Speaker 2: Cardinals and vice versa. This seemed very correlated to me.
Speaker 2: But the first bet I played this week was the
Speaker 2: over fifty two, and I was pretty content with doing it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you think Cardinals offense right now looks
Speaker 1: pretty much as good of an offense as again, even
Speaker 1: if you contain them somehow for like a moment. Murray
Speaker 1: is going to find a way right now with him
Speaker 1: being one hundred percent, And we can't count on that
Speaker 1: all year, right because it's like, guy, take some hits
Speaker 1: and everything like that. But right now with DeAndre Hopkins,
Speaker 1: AJ Green, Withever, Christian Kirk, I'm completely obsessed with Rondell
Speaker 1: Moore and I have been basically right since he was drafted.
Speaker 1: Just here's my dude. So they are going to put
Speaker 1: up points without that. It's really just a matter of
Speaker 1: whether or not the Jaguars can as well. And at
Speaker 1: the very least there's going be garbage time in this
Speaker 1: game where Lawrence is gonna get to throw. So I
Speaker 1: am with you. I'm looking over at bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: The over eighty three percent of our people, of our
Speaker 1: experts who are taking it are with the over. So
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I'm gonna tral it and if it
Speaker 1: hits them taking credit for it. And there's nothing you
Speaker 1: can do about it.
Speaker 2: Because you know what's funny, Dan, The only the only
Speaker 2: downside of this handicap is, oh darn, the Jaguars won't
Speaker 2: have a pass rush, so Kyler can't run around for
Speaker 2: fifty yards and chuck chuck ninety yard broken place to rondelmore,
Speaker 2: Oh darn, Like you know that might not happen.
Speaker 1: It's difficult. He's just gonna have to do it like
Speaker 1: normally and stand in the pocket, in a clean pocket
Speaker 1: and throw ninety yard touchdowns. That way, it's gonna be fine.
Speaker 1: But I agree with you, it's it's funny that almost benefits,
Speaker 1: right because the broken plays, and you've seen them happen
Speaker 1: in each of the cardinals first two games, like those
Speaker 1: result in giant plays going forward, So that is something
Speaker 1: that maybe you can count as a negative, but either way,
Speaker 1: man like this is this is gonna go over obviously.
Speaker 1: You know i'd over in their first game against the Titans.
Speaker 1: That should have gone over as the way I like
Speaker 1: to say it was, you knowway through the third quarter
Speaker 1: they needed one point, they didn't get it. But I
Speaker 1: really think that this is a good bet. I'm with
Speaker 1: you here. I have also selected the over in the
Speaker 1: betting pros app so hopefully it goes now. I'm very
Speaker 1: interested to get your take on my best bet. I
Speaker 1: do not know which way sort of the you know,
Speaker 1: sharp betters are going with this people in the know.
Speaker 1: I actually haven't heard that many people talk about it.
Speaker 1: Maybe I have missed it, but to me, it's a
Speaker 1: line that when I saw come out, I was going
Speaker 1: to take it, and it hasn't moved and I understand why.
Speaker 1: And it's the Eagles. They're now getting three and a half,
Speaker 1: but it vacillates between three and four, so one or
Speaker 1: the other. But the Eagles getting more than a field
Speaker 1: goal against the Cowboys. I get that the Eagles last
Speaker 1: week were a little disappointing, like of course, but I
Speaker 1: think that's much more about the forty nine ers and
Speaker 1: their defense being stronger than people give them credit for,
Speaker 1: just because they let the Lions get back into it
Speaker 1: after the lines were completely dominated throughout the game, which
Speaker 1: I think was more of them kind of taking it easy,
Speaker 1: taking their foot off the gas pedal. And I think
Speaker 1: if Jalen Rager doesn't step out of that touchdown, then
Speaker 1: that winds up being a touchdown that that really could
Speaker 1: have changed the game. Now, the Cowboys come off the
Speaker 1: big win against the Chargers, and I admit I didn't
Speaker 1: like them in that game. I thought that the Chargers
Speaker 1: win that game and basically covered the three point spread.
Speaker 1: It wasn't one of my best but either way, it's
Speaker 1: one season. Okay, we've seen Mike McCarthy for a long time.
Speaker 1: You look at what he did last year, one in
Speaker 1: five against the spread individual games, oh and five as
Speaker 1: home favorites. Now I get it like that, no Dack,
Speaker 1: but the lines are taking into account that Ben Denucci
Speaker 1: was the starting quarterback at one point, Like, those are
Speaker 1: the lines, and I just don't have a lot of
Speaker 1: faith in McCarthy as the head coach. We've also got
Speaker 1: a Mark Cooper really banged up with the ribs, and
Speaker 1: I'm sure you know, like rib injuries are tough, They're
Speaker 1: very difficult to play through, especially like that while Collins
Speaker 1: is out, Marcus Lawrence is out, the Cowboys are just
Speaker 1: a little banged up. It's not all great for the Eagles.
Speaker 1: Eagles are banged up too. They've got Brandon Brooks and
Speaker 1: brand and Graham both placed on IR this week. But
Speaker 1: I've been a fan of Jalen Hurts is, you know,
Speaker 1: maybe not the greatest passer in the world, but I think,
Speaker 1: you know, with the way Sirianni designed this offense in
Speaker 1: the offseason, I think it's going to accentuate what he
Speaker 1: can do. And I'm more sort of looking out that
Speaker 1: last week as sort of saying the forty nine ers
Speaker 1: have a really good defense. I don't think suddenly the
Speaker 1: Eagles were exposed. It's the nfcast. The games are usually tight.
Speaker 1: I see this as closer to a field goal game,
Speaker 1: and I understand the public loves the Cowboys, but I
Speaker 1: don't know, man, I want to hear your take on
Speaker 1: this because for me, I like the Eagles getting more
Speaker 1: in the field goal in this game.
Speaker 2: The over fifty one and a half to me just
Speaker 2: missed the cut of my three plays, mainly because I
Speaker 2: think when you're starting with Cowboys totals, you have to
Speaker 2: start baseline fifty two and drawing the Eagles, I thought
Speaker 2: you were going to work your way up, not down.
Speaker 2: So to me, I thought that number was short. It
Speaker 2: did make my card. I will say, though, Philadelphia to
Speaker 2: me is a team that already and we saw it
Speaker 2: as early as last week, already has some market support
Speaker 2: after Week one, a team that really, I mean, if
Speaker 2: we look back at preseason win totals, had one of
Speaker 2: the lowest win totals, wasn't really thought of as as
Speaker 2: a threat to the NFC East at all. And then
Speaker 2: we turn around week two, they're getting what three and
Speaker 2: a half? Three and a half at home to the
Speaker 2: to the Niners, a team that's projected to win like
Speaker 2: eleven games this season. So it seems like the Eagles
Speaker 2: were a team right off the bat that just immediately
Speaker 2: received support from the market and was going to be
Speaker 2: a lot better than the market projected it, you know,
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago. I have no interest in
Speaker 2: laying chalk with Dallas in the spot. Mike McCarthy is
Speaker 2: bound to make multiple coaching mistakes again again, no interest
Speaker 2: in laying more than a field goal on in division
Speaker 2: with that defense that didn't force a punt last week.
Speaker 2: It just can't do it.
Speaker 1: But you don't. But you don't. You are not on
Speaker 1: the Eagles right like you don't because again I I'm not,
Speaker 1: Like I'm looking at our bed analyzer, fifty seven percent
Speaker 1: of experts are taking the Eagles, so that, I mean,
Speaker 1: that's a pretty even split generally speaking. But this is
Speaker 1: not a bet I hear anybody talking about. It's not
Speaker 1: a bet I hear anybody want or anything like that
Speaker 1: to me. I don't know, man, I may be completely
Speaker 1: like my perception of the Eagles maybe just completely off
Speaker 1: generally speaking. We so I've mentioned this before, but the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association does a prop bet league
Speaker 1: where you draft prop bets. Okay, I won it last year.
Speaker 1: To think, my first bet, or one of my first
Speaker 1: bets is here was sirianni at Coach of the Year
Speaker 1: and it was just something where again that that's a
Speaker 1: lot of the way you bet Coach of the Year,
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of you know, details about it
Speaker 1: why it's sort of fit and there's a limited number
Speaker 1: of situations that usually will allow for a Coach of
Speaker 1: the Year. But I also thought that I from what
Speaker 1: I've known about Sirianni, I really like them. I think
Speaker 1: if the Eagles sort of always deal with a ton
Speaker 1: of injuries if they can avoid it. They're already dealing
Speaker 1: with injuries unfortunately, but if they can avoid major ones,
Speaker 1: they add DeVante Smith, you give them an entire year
Speaker 1: to build an offense around Jalen Hurts his strength. This
Speaker 1: is a team that could really surprise some people. And
Speaker 1: I know Atlanta wasn't great like you know in Week one,
Speaker 1: and they're not a great team, but they kind of
Speaker 1: hung with the Bucks, right like they outgained the Bucks.
Speaker 1: It's just sort of the two pick six is. I
Speaker 1: don't think Atlanta is quite as bad as the Eagles
Speaker 1: made them look. I think realistically the forty nine ers
Speaker 1: are just better than people are giving them credit for,
Speaker 1: which is why the Eagles struggled. I think the Eagles
Speaker 1: win this game outright, So I mean, for me, I
Speaker 1: will take more than a field goal. But again, this
Speaker 1: does not sound like a game that you are on
Speaker 1: on either side. Right Well, I will.
Speaker 2: Say this, Dan, I'm interested to see how the number
Speaker 2: moves not only throughout the week, but Sunday too. If
Speaker 2: if the books have some sort of big decision or
Speaker 2: you know, favorites are constantly winning, and we start seeing
Speaker 2: some money in coming in in Dallas's favor, we could
Speaker 2: possibly see some fours popping up. So again, not necessarily
Speaker 2: a number that stood out to me right away, but again,
Speaker 2: if it's any consolation, I wouldn't lay any chalk with
Speaker 2: Dallas at home in division primetime game against a dual
Speaker 2: threat quarterback. I just have no faith in the defense
Speaker 2: right now. Or Mike McCarthy, he made another Like I
Speaker 2: was in the airport last week, and I'm not trying
Speaker 2: to be a nip. People like Mike McCarthy just makes
Speaker 2: a bonehead move and I'm just like standing there, like
Speaker 2: looking around, like wondering if anybody is watching the same
Speaker 2: exact game that I'm watching. It's just it's really unnecessary.
Speaker 2: It's gonna come back to kill this team, and I
Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if it's this weekend. It's going it's inevitable.
Speaker 1: Dan, I don't need your consolation, man, I don't need you.
Speaker 1: I don't need you telling me like, hey man, look
Speaker 1: it's all right, I don't mind. I don't mind being
Speaker 1: in the I'm in the majority technically actually because as
Speaker 1: I said, fifty seven percent. But yeah, this is really
Speaker 1: something Alex worth this weekend. I feel like my feelings
Speaker 1: on the Eagles are either going to be validated or
Speaker 1: shown to be incorrect because this is a week against
Speaker 1: a banged up Cowboys team coming off a big win,
Speaker 1: and I get it, and it's Monday night and whatever
Speaker 1: in a divisional game. If they lose this game by
Speaker 1: more than three points A, I'm going to be really surprised. B.
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna say, Okay, maybe I'm wrong in
Speaker 1: the way I'm evaluating them, but again, and this is
Speaker 1: my favorite bet. I've been on this since that I
Speaker 1: looked at the opening line. It was there were fours
Speaker 1: and three and a halfs. It hasn't moved all week
Speaker 1: as far as I can see, So I'm excited about it.
Speaker 1: But let's get to your second bet, which I will hate,
Speaker 1: but I will give you a consolation of I won't
Speaker 1: take the other side.
Speaker 2: Okay, Hey, thanks Dan, Yeah, let's take TV. I took
Speaker 2: Tampa bat pick to me, this is the optimal time
Speaker 2: to sell the Rams defense last year, Pitt Washington, we're
Speaker 2: the best at creating havoc getting after the passer. But
Speaker 2: when you look at basic peripher roles, standard downs and stuff,
Speaker 2: LA was fantastic with Brandon Staley number one in a
Speaker 2: lot of different metrics. And so you look at who
Speaker 2: they've played so far, Chicago, Andy Dalton. Watching that game,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't say it was a bad game or a
Speaker 2: good game. They just basically gave Andy Dalton whatever he wanted.
Speaker 2: Dalton doesn't push the ball down the field. They were
Speaker 2: content with just letting him throw dank and dunks against
Speaker 2: the Colts. I bet the over last week against the Colts,
Speaker 2: and that game was hard to watch because of Carson Wentz.
Speaker 2: And I don't think Indianapolis has that grid of a
Speaker 2: of a receiving corpse, to be completely honest with you.
Speaker 2: And they move the ball. They move the ball oftentimes
Speaker 2: at will. And so really, if there was any downside
Speaker 2: to this handicap, it's the you know, cross country trip whatever.
Speaker 2: But honestly, if this is Tom Brady, if there's any
Speaker 2: quarterback that's going to defy any sort of trend or
Speaker 2: angle like that, it's going to be TV and to
Speaker 2: be honest, watching him play the last two weeks, he
Speaker 2: just you know, it sounds cliche, but he just looks
Speaker 2: like he wants to play football and like is actually trying,
Speaker 2: and they can't run the ball, and I would expect him.
Speaker 2: You know, he's played Aaron Donald before, he's played this
Speaker 2: defense before. He's not going to get sucked into the
Speaker 2: pass rush and he's not going to throw Jalen Ramsey's
Speaker 2: way ten times a game. So there are ways around
Speaker 2: the defense. I think it's the perfect time to sell.
Speaker 2: I think the Rams team total under could be a
Speaker 2: good look based off of who they've played so far.
Speaker 2: To me, I thought this was a really cheap price,
Speaker 2: and I don't think you're gonna a lot of spots
Speaker 2: to bet Tampa Bay at a number like this. To
Speaker 2: be honest, I know this sounds kind of weird. I
Speaker 2: would have played Tampa Bay up to minus three plus
Speaker 2: one hundred. And the only reason I say that is
Speaker 2: because I don't think we were ever going to see
Speaker 2: a three in the market, just because if you flip
Speaker 2: that around, we're essentially applying implying that Tampa Bay would
Speaker 2: be like a you know, seven, seven and a half
Speaker 2: point home favorite and that's just not gonna happen. And
Speaker 2: so this line, to me, I think there's a lot
Speaker 2: of value on Tampa Bay good time to sell the
Speaker 2: Rams defense, So I thought it was a cheap price
Speaker 2: to play the box.
Speaker 1: I agree with you there there at the lines moving
Speaker 1: a little bit, there's a lot of one and a
Speaker 1: half's now out there. But that's I'm glad you brought
Speaker 1: that up because I was gonna ask, like, what is
Speaker 1: the number you will play it up to? Because I
Speaker 1: think this number is going to continue to climb incrementally.
Speaker 1: I don't think it gets to three or anything like that,
Speaker 1: but I do think that it's going to continue to
Speaker 1: rise up. I agree with you in this one. Now,
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown is probably going to be out in this game,
Speaker 1: which takes away one of the weapons necessarily, and that
Speaker 1: you know, when you have a couple of down cornerbacks
Speaker 1: like the Rams have, that does make a difference because
Speaker 1: there is like the third option is out. But I
Speaker 1: agree with you in this game. And look last game, right,
Speaker 1: like the Colt could have won that game, right, I
Speaker 1: mean right, they started off right up down the field
Speaker 1: and and didn't convert, you know, in that in that
Speaker 1: first one, so go ahead.
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, I believe it was two trips
Speaker 2: into the red zone one rack, one was a fumble,
Speaker 2: the other was a turnover on downs. And I remember
Speaker 2: at that point my brother was looking at me and
Speaker 2: he was like, hey, sorry, you didn't deserve that, you know,
Speaker 2: because I had you over. But at the same time,
Speaker 2: you know, there was little resistance, and Carson Wentz didn't
Speaker 2: play that great of a game. He was he was
Speaker 2: making some very very dumb mistakes. You played Andy Dalton,
Speaker 2: and you played Carson Wentz, and now you got to
Speaker 2: play a Tom Brady. This is a huge step up
Speaker 2: in competition for a defense that I think is again
Speaker 2: just the perfect time to sell off.
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I'm agree, and I'd be surprised if Daryl
Speaker 1: Henderson plays in this game as well. And I know
Speaker 1: people are like, well, whatever, but Sony Michelle is not
Speaker 1: a pass catcher, even though his stats last year suggested
Speaker 1: he could be necessarily. But it's not the same caliber
Speaker 1: of back coming out of that backfield, so that does
Speaker 1: make a difference as well. I'm in agreement with you
Speaker 1: if you can take Brady like with the way that
Speaker 1: team is playing, with the way Brady is playing, there
Speaker 1: aren't that many. I remember last I mean, they were favorite, obviously,
Speaker 1: but I remember last year when Baltimore was laying a
Speaker 1: few points to Mahomes, and I remember being like, if
Speaker 1: you're telling me that I'm going to catch points with
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, I'm just going to accept it. I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna do. And this sort of feels like to me,
Speaker 1: as good as the Rams are, if you're gonna at
Speaker 1: this point, with the way he is playing and with
Speaker 1: the way that entire team is playing, if you're gonna
Speaker 1: give me like they're laying a point and a half
Speaker 1: with the with the Bucks, I'll take that day of
Speaker 1: the week. So I hate to agree with you, but
Speaker 1: I am agreeing with you. I'm going to give myself
Speaker 1: a reason to watch my team, and I'm going to
Speaker 1: go with the Jets and the Broncos, and I'm going
Speaker 1: to go. I'm just checking to make sure it's still there.
Speaker 1: It was forty one and a half last time I saw,
Speaker 1: which is a low over under, and I don't care
Speaker 1: because I'm going with the under. I'm just checking to
Speaker 1: make sure it has not moved. Give me a second,
Speaker 1: is totally fine. I just checked up. But now I'm
Speaker 1: very nervous. I know it's still forty one and a
Speaker 1: half beautiful eighty percent by the way of our experts
Speaker 1: are on the over. Don't care. Okay, I'm going with
Speaker 1: the under. Both teams here, let's take a step back
Speaker 1: of how bad the Jets are. Nobody really cares, but
Speaker 1: let's take a step back. Both of these teams play slow.
Speaker 1: That's like we can just start there. We know that
Speaker 1: from watching both of them. They're you know, low down
Speaker 1: and pace the play and everything like that. Teddy Bridgewater
Speaker 1: is general it's Teddy covers of course, but generally leans
Speaker 1: towards the unders because again, doesn't he's not explosive. He
Speaker 1: doesn't push the ball downfield. It's not like his teams
Speaker 1: are scoring at will and in a matter of seconds.
Speaker 1: It's not like a Patrick Mahomes type of offense. These
Speaker 1: are slow, methodical drives that take time off the clock.
Speaker 1: So the clock's gonna bleed here. You look at how
Speaker 1: they played so far. Forty points in Game one against
Speaker 1: the Giants, and that took a last second touchdown to
Speaker 1: get there, thirty six in Game two against the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: The Broncos have a very very good defense, as we
Speaker 1: know generally speaking, when you go to Denver early in
Speaker 1: the season, very difficult on the road team. But they,
Speaker 1: you know, the Broncos aren't exactly acclimated to it either.
Speaker 1: So you could say, well, that's gonna hurt the defense.
Speaker 1: I think that's just gonna make it for sloppy play
Speaker 1: all around. My guess is when you have a quarterback
Speaker 1: who throws four touchdowns, that what you're gonna say is
Speaker 1: let's get a little conservative here on offense and let's
Speaker 1: slow it down. Let's use the run game as much
Speaker 1: as we can, Let's take shorter throws, let's not push it.
Speaker 1: That's a lot of what I see. He So, I
Speaker 1: think what you have is an offense that is very
Speaker 1: bad with the Jets. You have a defense that is
Speaker 1: very solid with the Broncos. The Broncos have a decent offense,
Speaker 1: not overly explosive or anything like that. Especially without Jerry Judy.
Speaker 1: They'll be able to put up some points. But again,
Speaker 1: this strikes me as a game like my guess is
Speaker 1: like this is gonna be the first game to reach halftime.
Speaker 1: When they get there, right, it's gonna be like, oh,
Speaker 1: look at that. The debts are going You're gonna have
Speaker 1: other games with like six minutes left in the second quarter,
Speaker 1: So I think a slow paced game where the total
Speaker 1: winds up being like thirty seven, thirty eight in the end,
Speaker 1: like whatever. So it's forty one and a half. It's
Speaker 1: a low total. I get it. I'm still going with
Speaker 1: the other with the under.
Speaker 2: I'm hoping for a suppressed total because admittedly I've just
Speaker 2: been waiting for a spot to buy low on the
Speaker 2: Jets offense to take an over but road game in
Speaker 2: altitude versus a defense that's probably gonna finish, you know,
Speaker 2: top ten in the top third of you know, every
Speaker 2: match of possible.
Speaker 1: Titans next week, Titans next week. Go go with the
Speaker 1: over there. That's when you got it all right.
Speaker 2: Oh look, the by low spot came as early as
Speaker 2: week four. If we're gonna give the Jets any benefit
Speaker 2: of the doubt, they've played two pretty good defenses to
Speaker 2: start in Carolina and New England, and this isn't a
Speaker 2: get right spot at all again, cross country, ship and altitude.
Speaker 2: The offensive line sucks. The offensive line, to not mince words,
Speaker 2: is terrible. And Zach Wilson, who threw off his back foot,
Speaker 2: probably more than anybody at by you last year is
Speaker 2: already starting to see that pattern trickle over in the NFL.
Speaker 2: So again, to me, I didn't have a play in
Speaker 2: this game. The only reason I didn't have a play
Speaker 2: in this game is because you can't make a total
Speaker 2: end of the thirties nowadays in the NFL. You just can't.
Speaker 2: And so I would have liked to grab the twelve
Speaker 2: and a half if I would have been quick enough.
Speaker 2: Yesterday it dropped to eleven. I missed the boat I'm at,
Speaker 2: but the number to me looked right. I will be
Speaker 2: rooting for you. To me, I could find any reason
Speaker 2: to playing over in the NFL, I love I can
Speaker 2: leisurely find a way to play an over. I don't
Speaker 2: see any angle whatsoever. To be honest in what I
Speaker 2: usually do is I'll find an over in the afternoon slate.
Speaker 2: That's so I could root for it while while watching
Speaker 2: Red Zone. I don't have a single one in the
Speaker 2: afternoon slate, and you couldn't. You couldn't pay me to
Speaker 2: bet this over. It's it's going to be ugly, like
Speaker 2: it looks ugly on paper, gonna look even uglier on
Speaker 2: the field.
Speaker 1: Why I love having you as a guest because even
Speaker 1: when you don't support me, you were able to talk
Speaker 1: enough and say enough things that I can like pull
Speaker 1: out things and be like, I feel like Alex is
Speaker 1: on board with this bet. I'm gonna go with it,
Speaker 1: even though you're just like I wouldn't go the other way.
Speaker 1: You know, go ahead, you're trying, you want to say something,
Speaker 1: It's fine, Go well.
Speaker 2: It's just funny because when I look at these games,
Speaker 2: if I don't have a plan a game, usually as
Speaker 2: the week goes on, I'm talking to myself. I talk
Speaker 2: myself into a side or a total. I just I
Speaker 2: really can't find an angle. I laid it with New
Speaker 2: England last weekend and I tried to find every every
Speaker 2: possible way to play the over and I couldn't. And again,
Speaker 2: I just I know, I'm kind of spit on and reiterating,
Speaker 2: but I am looking for a spot to play the
Speaker 2: Jets over because it's it's a very very underrated angle
Speaker 2: to to buy low and sell high on totals just
Speaker 2: because of the lack of holatility. You're not gonna see
Speaker 2: a lot of extremes for over, and you're not gonna
Speaker 2: see a team like thirteen and three to the over.
Speaker 2: Like this, this this trend is gonna snap. It's just
Speaker 2: a matter of having the right partner for it. And
Speaker 2: when you said Tennessee next week, ill I can think
Speaker 2: of us. Oh my god, aj Brown, that's wild. And
Speaker 2: you know how you have it the you know, the
Speaker 2: the Denzel Mims breakout game that we've all done, Brax
Speaker 2: and Barrios going for for ten for one hundred and
Speaker 2: seven and three. It's coming, it's coming in week four.
Speaker 2: But you know, I'll tell you when there's when there's
Speaker 2: a game that I'm gonna go opposite with you if
Speaker 2: I go if I got a bump with you, Dan,
Speaker 2: But but this it just it isn't We're on the
Speaker 2: same page here. Again, I can't bet the over in
Speaker 2: this game. The under is the under and the dog
Speaker 2: to me are the only plays in the game.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Oh, we talked about that, like whatever the spread
Speaker 1: is eleven and a half or whatever, eleven and a
Speaker 1: half point spread with a forty one and a half
Speaker 1: point over under, it is just nuts like that. You know,
Speaker 1: that's just insane. But yeah, look and again I certainly
Speaker 1: you know whichever way you want or anything like that.
Speaker 1: I hate your next bet, whatever it is. I don't
Speaker 1: even know what it is, but it's fine, So it's
Speaker 1: totally fine. I approved your previous bets. I don't even
Speaker 1: know what your third bet is yet, so we'll get
Speaker 1: there just in a second. I assume it's going to
Speaker 1: be an over then right, because you're all right, go
Speaker 1: give it to giving me a third.
Speaker 2: Bet I played. I played Cleveland Chicago over forty six.
Speaker 2: And my reasoning behind this was, naturally, when you when
Speaker 2: you get news that a starting quarterbacks is going to
Speaker 2: go out, and we've seen a lot of it this week,
Speaker 2: like everybody's going down car Big Ben Fields, and we've
Speaker 2: seen Carson Wentz as well, and we've seen the same
Speaker 2: exact trend and all four games, and that's the public's
Speaker 2: hit the total and we've seen the total drop. However,
Speaker 2: this total drop from forty six and a half to
Speaker 2: forty five and a half and then there was immediate
Speaker 2: buyback on the over to forty six, and that was
Speaker 2: enough for me to make a play on it. And really, Dalton,
Speaker 2: Dalton can move up and down the field. But when
Speaker 2: I bet an over, and when I'm expecting points and
Speaker 2: I need points, trading and swapping out Dalton for fields
Speaker 2: as big playability is a perfect trade off in my opinion.
Speaker 2: So while he's raw, and you know, maybe the playbook
Speaker 2: isn't as open, you're gonna have those big plays that
Speaker 2: we saw at Ohio State. Like I try and envision
Speaker 2: the Bears offense, I'm a Bears fan. I can't tell
Speaker 2: you the last time that a receiver's just run wild
Speaker 2: down the post for like an eighty yar time. It
Speaker 2: just doesn't happen. I think the last to do that
Speaker 2: was like Johnny Knox back in two thousand and fourteen.
Speaker 2: But you get a big playability against a Browns defense
Speaker 2: that's been terrible against the pass. They've given up a
Speaker 2: bunch of splash plays against the pass. I know you
Speaker 2: played Kansas City and we're in a negative game script
Speaker 2: against Houston, But again, you have field here who could
Speaker 2: actually make the place. If it was Dalton, you'd have
Speaker 2: no problem, but now you have to actually defend all
Speaker 2: the quadrants of the field. Cleveland, meanwhile, I think, is
Speaker 2: the best overplay in the NFL right now. They seem
Speaker 2: very twenty twenty billsy in the sense that they're just
Speaker 2: gonna score forty every game. And you never really know
Speaker 2: what you're gonna do in the playoffs, but you get
Speaker 2: a team that just wants to be a world beater
Speaker 2: during the regular season, and Kevin Stefansy to me, has
Speaker 2: shown that. And even though they're down a bunch of
Speaker 2: skilled players, like they're still running the ball at an
Speaker 2: unbelievably successful rate with Chubb. There's still skill players that
Speaker 2: can make plays. It's not really an offense that's predicated
Speaker 2: on needing a bunch of wide receivers. And so the
Speaker 2: Bears defense to me, hasn't looked all that great on paper.
Speaker 2: It's like, oh, the Bears defense monsters are the midway,
Speaker 2: Like they're not that good. Like I'm I'm a Bears fan, Like,
Speaker 2: i don't think they're that good. They're not that intimidating,
Speaker 2: you know, like in the years past. So to me,
Speaker 2: this dropping a point and then seeing some immediate buyback
Speaker 2: on the over was pretty telling. I think this is
Speaker 2: a good spot to play the over, and I'm excited
Speaker 2: to do so in fields his first game.
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is really an interesting one for me
Speaker 1: because you're right, it's weird with Cleveland, right, they're just
Speaker 1: down non stop playmakers, right, obviously Darbus Landers on MYRT.
Speaker 1: There was a report today after Beckham practice fully yesterday
Speaker 1: that he's going to be another game time decision. So
Speaker 1: this is surprising to me, But it doesn't matter because
Speaker 1: that offensive system is it what it? You know, go
Speaker 1: with Austin Hooper and David Joku and the running backs
Speaker 1: and you've got enough to basically score at will because
Speaker 1: that offensive line is great for me. I wonder though,
Speaker 1: I mean what, I guess, what do you expect from
Speaker 1: Field in this first game? To me? When I have
Speaker 1: a guy like Fields, especially with his rushing ability, I
Speaker 1: think his first game is something that lends itself towards
Speaker 1: an overplay because I think like they don't know how
Speaker 1: to defend him number one, they don't know exactly what
Speaker 1: they're going to see. It's really hard to build a
Speaker 1: game plan against someone like Fields in his first game.
Speaker 1: So I personally also could see the Bears putting up
Speaker 1: points here. Is that? Do you like it better? Considering
Speaker 1: it's his first game? Do you think that lends itself
Speaker 1: to more points? Well?
Speaker 2: I think the biggest takeaway here is when you watched
Speaker 2: last week, like dalviin was orchestra in the offense, pretty well.
Speaker 2: They were moving the ball pretty well over Cincinnati with
Speaker 2: fields coming in mid game. Everything kind of slowed down
Speaker 2: with him having a full week to prepare and you know,
Speaker 2: you're on the road. Cleveland's defense to me is it's okay,
Speaker 2: they're pieces, they can after the quarterback. But I think
Speaker 2: just the recipe of what you're looking for, a Cleveland
Speaker 2: defense that gives up big plays could have suppressed Andy Dalton.
Speaker 2: But to me, this is a huge breakout game for
Speaker 2: Chicago skill players. Like we talk, I mean, I'm sure
Speaker 2: you hear all the time too. Being so tucked in
Speaker 2: with fantasy, you know, guys like Darnel Mooney and Alan
Speaker 2: Robinson being as underrated as he is, Like you're just
Speaker 2: waiting for these guys to pop off and taking a
Speaker 2: closer look at Chicago. Like Dalton used to push the
Speaker 2: ball when he was with the Cincinnati he had no choice,
Speaker 2: Like he he would throw the ball recklessly in Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: Ever since last year, I don't know why, he just
Speaker 2: hasn't pushed the ball down the field. He hasn't been
Speaker 2: a good over bet. He doesn't apt, but he's not
Speaker 2: enticing to bet over the total as he once was.
Speaker 2: To me, I was just really excited to bet a
Speaker 2: change of pace, a quarterback who could really push the
Speaker 2: ball down field, and who wants to push the ball offield.
Speaker 2: He has some skill players to make the plays. I
Speaker 2: guess a pretty subpard defense. So down to forty five
Speaker 2: and a half up the tick up to forty six.
Speaker 2: I thought it was pretty dead, a pretty dead number.
Speaker 2: So I went over the total and you know, it
Speaker 2: probably isn't the biggest edge that I have, but it
Speaker 2: was more so I wanted to play the number. I
Speaker 2: thought the market liked the over at forty six, and
Speaker 2: just you know, it's just a rooting for a fresh
Speaker 2: change of pace with fields undersetterer.
Speaker 1: To be honest, that's fun. I don't hate it whatsoever.
Speaker 1: I would pretend that I did, but I can't. You're
Speaker 1: a decent fellow. But here's what I want to talk
Speaker 1: about is my final bet, which another one that number one.
Speaker 1: I feel like the books are begging me to take
Speaker 1: because they want me to take it. They think it's
Speaker 1: the wrong side. And I don't hear anybody who I
Speaker 1: trust in the betting landscape taking this game. And I
Speaker 1: need you to explain why to me, so we will
Speaker 1: get there. And that is the Titans at home laying
Speaker 1: five to the Colts. There is only two reasons I
Speaker 1: can see that you might be scared off of this
Speaker 1: game if you want to bet the Titans. The first
Speaker 1: is that the Colts are just like the most esperate
Speaker 1: team that you could possibly have. Right now, right they're
Speaker 1: on and two they lose again here to the Titans.
Speaker 1: By the way, you can hear in the back that
Speaker 1: is my garage door opening. That happens once every podcast
Speaker 1: because I podcast in the room above my garage door.
Speaker 1: Don't worry about it. Number one, that they're desperate, their
Speaker 1: season is on the line. They lose this game, they
Speaker 1: fall to zer three, they've lost to the Titans. That's
Speaker 1: a really, really bad thing. Number two, it's a division game.
Speaker 1: A division game is always unpredictable. You never know how
Speaker 1: it's going to go. It may stay as close as possible,
Speaker 1: so you might not want to go after it. That's fine.
Speaker 1: But for me, dude like Carson Wentz, I could be wrong.
Speaker 1: I don't expect Carson Wentz to play this game. I mean,
Speaker 1: at this point right he's in practice today. He's got
Speaker 1: two ankle sprains. One of them is a high ankle spring.
Speaker 1: He's a tough dude. He tries to play through, but
Speaker 1: there's just no way I see this happening, which means
Speaker 1: it's probably going to be Jacob Easton and Hunley because
Speaker 1: they're splitting snaps. Are you going to go with both
Speaker 1: of them in this game? Is that what the game
Speaker 1: plan is? The Cults are an okay team. Okay, they're
Speaker 1: not great. Even with Wentz, they're an okay team. They've
Speaker 1: allowed four point three yards per carry to opposing running
Speaker 1: backs Chris Carson and Darryl Henderson. That is fine, but
Speaker 1: the Titans run defense obviously locked up Chris Carson in
Speaker 1: this last game, even though he scored two touchdown. The
Speaker 1: Colts pass defense has not been good. Xavier Roads has
Speaker 1: not played yet. I don't think he's going to play
Speaker 1: in this game. You misspracticed yesterday. They've allowed two hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty five point five passing yards per game. Again,
Speaker 1: Rams and Seahawks, so two good passing offenses. But the
Speaker 1: thing is you attack. If you're the Colt you can
Speaker 1: attack Titans more through the air than on the ground.
Speaker 1: Their secondary not great. Genoris Jenkins, Christian Fulton, Chris Jackson,
Speaker 1: but we talked about the Colts pass catchers, and they're
Speaker 1: not that impressive. I mean, I like Michael Pittman junior.
Speaker 1: You know, Zach Pascal's fine, but you're not going to
Speaker 1: be able to attack them through the air with Jacobson
Speaker 1: and Hunley like you're just not I don't understand why
Speaker 1: this spread isn't moving, And this seems like the books
Speaker 1: just desperately want me because if anything, it's gone down.
Speaker 1: It was five and a half on Monday. It's five
Speaker 1: right now, the consensus line that I'm looking at. So
Speaker 1: perhaps you can explain to me why I'm totally misreading
Speaker 1: this game and why should I have any faith that
Speaker 1: either Eastern or Hunley is going to be able to
Speaker 1: put up any points?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I really can't. Although Indianapolis to me looks like
Speaker 2: and you could look at the the win loss record
Speaker 2: as it is, but I don't think there's a team
Speaker 2: that's been more disappointing than Indianapolis. It just even with
Speaker 2: Wentz healthy last weekend, like there were parts, like you said,
Speaker 2: they almost won the game, but it just didn't look
Speaker 2: very fluid, and there were just times when he was
Speaker 2: running for his life and you know, not having t
Speaker 2: y Hilton there, like you said, Michael Pittman becomes your
Speaker 2: number one receiver. Love Michael Pittman. He was fantastic at USC,
Speaker 2: but you know, he's just he. I don't think he's
Speaker 2: ready to be the number one wide receiver. And this
Speaker 2: is still a road game, the first, their first road
Speaker 2: game playing outdoors all year, so there's that. Honestly, I
Speaker 2: was gonna play the over in this game earlier in
Speaker 2: the week, didn't and then all of a sudden saw
Speaker 2: it crater and didn't know why. Come to find out
Speaker 2: that Wentz not only sprained one of his ankles, but
Speaker 2: both of them. Like, I don't know how the guy's
Speaker 2: walking right now, let alone game planning. So I'm not
Speaker 2: really sure why there's no resistance. You know, teams that
Speaker 2: are zero to two against the spread dating back to
Speaker 2: like the last eleven years are covering it like a
Speaker 2: sixty two percent clip in week three. So you know,
Speaker 2: if you want to play the trend's game, that's fine, but.
Speaker 1: I would with Wentz. I'm not kidding if Wentz were healthy.
Speaker 1: That trend is meaningful to me, because I mean, I
Speaker 1: do see I have seen that trend, and I think
Speaker 1: so too. It's just like it's like and perhaps the
Speaker 1: spread at five, and it probably is. I think maybe
Speaker 1: baked in the uncertainty with Wentz when I when I
Speaker 1: looked at it on Monday, because we knew he was
Speaker 1: potentially hurt. But I don't know, man, I expected this
Speaker 1: to move and we talked about it on Monday. We
Speaker 1: do a look ahead, you know, on the lines, and
Speaker 1: Andrew Cayley and I both said, like, I would expect
Speaker 1: this to move towards six six and a half, assuming
Speaker 1: that it's going to be Jacob eeson, and it just
Speaker 1: hasn't moved. So it feels like they just want me
Speaker 1: to take this number and I can't. I've really figured out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, could be a good spot to to fade the
Speaker 2: Colts offense just in general. I know Tennessee's been awful,
Speaker 2: but because of the shootouts that they've played the last
Speaker 2: two weeks, you're gonna start to see some numbers pop
Speaker 2: up on their opponent's team total overs that just make
Speaker 2: no sense. And if you know, if you're Jacob E's
Speaker 2: in running the show without tuy Hilton and at receiving corpse,
Speaker 2: I don't care if it's Tennessee, you know, You're not
Speaker 2: gonna put up twenty four points. You're not. You known
Speaker 2: anything twenty one and a half or better might be good.
Speaker 2: So it doesn't make any sense to me. Usually you
Speaker 2: can there's some writing on the wall. You can read
Speaker 2: the tea leaves to the injury report. Throughout the weeks.
Speaker 2: To me, went spraining both of his ankles, like just
Speaker 2: to me, sounded painful. It's just it's just he's not
Speaker 2: gonna play, like I mean, he's got and one of
Speaker 2: them is a high ankle spring.
Speaker 1: The high ankle springs are like four to six weeks
Speaker 1: and they're like he's out for all intenda if he plays,
Speaker 1: by the way, if he plays at this point, I
Speaker 1: don't know how great I feel about it anyway, because
Speaker 1: like you said, like it's he's not gonna be able
Speaker 1: to move, and part of it is his mobility, Like
Speaker 1: that's part of what makes him a decent NFL quarterback.
Speaker 1: But he's going to be just a statue back there
Speaker 1: that that's not gonna be good for them anyway.
Speaker 2: He was running for his life last week. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 2: it would be very it would be very Titansy to
Speaker 2: lose Week one, go on the road, week to beat Seattle,
Speaker 2: then come back and just lay an egg at home.
Speaker 1: Very true, very true, very true, very true. Well, like
Speaker 1: I said, I if wins were healthy, it would be
Speaker 1: something where I would just be like, just the feel
Speaker 1: of the game doesn't feel right, letdown game after that
Speaker 1: big win, like you know, and again we talked about
Speaker 1: like the Colts could be easily won that game last
Speaker 1: week against the Rams if a couple of things had
Speaker 1: broken right. So it's not as if they're a terrible team,
Speaker 1: but there will coach everything like that. But again, this
Speaker 1: is something where part of me just feels like I
Speaker 1: don't know whether or not the models that the books
Speaker 1: he is always properly take into account the downgrade in
Speaker 1: quarterbacks that come. Sometimes I do. Sometimes you see massive moves,
Speaker 1: but a lot of times it's very much like, oh,
Speaker 1: this is worth two points. But for me, I guess
Speaker 1: they must have been factoring it in from the start
Speaker 1: and the fact that it hasn't moved and it doesn't
Speaker 1: look like it's overly I mean, sixty four percent of
Speaker 1: our experts are taking the Titans, but it's not overwhelming
Speaker 1: or anything like that, So I get it. It's this
Speaker 1: weird sort of five number right, five, five and a half.
Speaker 1: You don't really know what to do with that number,
Speaker 1: but so.
Speaker 2: Dead number more likely trending towards six than it would
Speaker 2: to fall to four a full point a half. And
Speaker 2: even if Wentz does play it, like you said, one
Speaker 2: high ankle sprained in another bad ankle against you know,
Speaker 2: even against the defense that can't cover anybody. You know,
Speaker 2: he has to make plays with his legs. A lot
Speaker 2: of his is making play with plays with his legs.
Speaker 2: So huge step down in competition for the Titans at home,
Speaker 2: good chance to go to it. Honestly, if you're the Titans,
Speaker 2: you're two and one after what's transpired the last couple
Speaker 2: of weeks, you'd take that.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And again I've sort of been vocal about the
Speaker 1: fact that I think a lot of the Titans issues,
Speaker 1: at least early on. In that first game against Arizona
Speaker 1: was a lot of because they didn't get to practice
Speaker 1: at all with COVID. And even in the second game,
Speaker 1: AJ Brown had won the worst games I've ever seen
Speaker 1: them play. You know, they could have, you know, put
Speaker 1: up more points, certainly against Seattle in that game. So
Speaker 1: their defense is not great, their secondary is not great.
Speaker 1: But it really hasn't been great for a couple of years,
Speaker 1: and they still managed to put it up. So I
Speaker 1: do think the Titans win here, and I do think
Speaker 1: that they cover the spread. So let's very briefly before
Speaker 1: we get to the rest of the spreads and just
Speaker 1: run through them and see if you like any of
Speaker 1: them at all or have any value. Let's briefly recap.
Speaker 1: I'll do it again at the end. You like Arizona
Speaker 1: and Jacksonville to go over fifty two, the Bucks to
Speaker 1: cover the one point spread against the Rams, and the
Speaker 1: Browns and the Bears to go over their total of
Speaker 1: forty six. I am taking the Eagles getting three and
Speaker 1: a half from the Cowboys, the Jets and the Broncos
Speaker 1: to stay under forty one and a half, and the
Speaker 1: Titans laying five to the Cults. I really, really am
Speaker 1: excited about the prospect of rooting for the Jets for finally,
Speaker 1: since I'm a Jets fan, to not score points and
Speaker 1: for them to like rip off like you know, three
Speaker 1: touchdowns or something like that, back to back. That'll be
Speaker 1: a good show. Then on Monday, I'm all right, let's
Speaker 1: run through some of the remaining spreads. Just let me
Speaker 1: know what if you have any thoughts on it. The
Speaker 1: Washington football team visiting the Bills, the Bills laying seven
Speaker 1: and a.
Speaker 2: Half points, I bet over forty five and a half. Again,
Speaker 2: just another Bilo spot on Buffalo. I don't think Washington's
Speaker 2: defense is as good as it was last year behind
Speaker 2: a pretty fraudulent schedule, and we've already kind of seen
Speaker 2: some chinks in the armor to start. So I think
Speaker 2: Buffalo if Josh Allen hopefully sees more man covers this
Speaker 2: week and lights him up. Taylor Heinekey to me, you know,
Speaker 2: I covered the Conference USA a couple of years ago,
Speaker 2: and you know I could firmly say as a big
Speaker 2: Taylor Heinikee fan out of ODU, you know I must
Speaker 2: have beten countless ODU overs back in college, just waking
Speaker 2: up on Saturday mornings and trying to lock in bets,
Speaker 2: you know, betting over seventy and a half against Marshall
Speaker 2: every week. But I bet over forty five and a
Speaker 2: half non conference game. Both defenses to me, I think
Speaker 2: can be exploited through the year. I went over forty
Speaker 2: five and a half. A terrible bet, but I bet it.
Speaker 1: Matt, you always want to hear that from somebody who's
Speaker 1: giving betting bets a terrible bet, terrible I'm doing it anyway.
Speaker 1: All right, let's set these Steelers at home laying three
Speaker 1: to the Bengals. Total is forty four.
Speaker 2: I thought the total was a little low, but again,
Speaker 2: Roethlisberger's pack injury kind of kept me off of it.
Speaker 2: Waiting for a spot to bet Pittsburgh's over, But don't
Speaker 2: think this is going to be the week for it.
Speaker 1: You talked about the total in this game, but what
Speaker 1: do you think about the Cardinals laying seven and a
Speaker 1: half in Jacksonville to the Jaguars.
Speaker 2: I would have grabbed seven. I just didn't really have
Speaker 2: any interest in laying two scores on the road, just
Speaker 2: because with my luck, the cross country trip against the
Speaker 2: worst team in the league will prove to be the
Speaker 2: kryptonite for Cliff Kingsbury.
Speaker 1: How about the Ravens visiting the Lions. The Ravens are
Speaker 1: laying eight. The total is fifty.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I took over fifty. It's a sucker bet. But
Speaker 2: Detroit can't stop anybody. Baltimore looks formidable in both facets
Speaker 2: of the game. I know Lamar kind of came up
Speaker 2: a little bruised after that that hip.
Speaker 1: Yep, yeah it did in practice. Yeah, if you flip
Speaker 1: into the end zone and you bruise your hip, oh yeah,
Speaker 1: that doesn't go over well. So I'm sure he'll he'll play.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And honestly, Baltimore's there. The secondaries looks really spotty,
Speaker 2: to be honest with you. Just a lot of bodies,
Speaker 2: a lot of key bodies down and you know Jered
Speaker 2: Goff jerreed golf. But you know he's throwing the ball
Speaker 2: and if they can't get after if they can't get
Speaker 2: after him, and you know he could he could slice apart.
Speaker 2: We saw him, Yeah, make some big plays against San Francisco.
Speaker 2: I went over fifty, all right.
Speaker 1: This was one, I'll be honest, it was. It was
Speaker 1: on the cutting room floor, but it made one of
Speaker 1: my final thoughts. Here. The Falcons are visiting the Giants.
Speaker 1: The Falcons are getting three. The total is forty seven
Speaker 1: and a half. I leaned towards the Falcons getting three
Speaker 1: in this game. Ultimately I didn't pick it.
Speaker 2: What do you think I did? I took the Falcons
Speaker 2: plus three. That was the second or third bet that
Speaker 2: I made this week. Just didn't agree with it. It
Speaker 2: Giants minus one yep, didn't fit. That's pretty much it.
Speaker 2: I don't think the Giants have done anything to warrant
Speaker 2: being three point favorites and landed. To me, if they're
Speaker 2: serious about the season, this is kind of their last
Speaker 2: gasp too, and no real better way to do it
Speaker 2: than against you know, a team that can't really break
Speaker 2: off explosive plays, played a dual threat quarterback in Tom Brady,
Speaker 2: and I need to play Daniel Jones and a bunch
Speaker 2: of wide receivers that can't get separations. So you know,
Speaker 2: I think this is a good spot.
Speaker 1: How about the Chargers visiting the Chiefs. Chiefs are laying
Speaker 1: six and a half. The total is fifty four and
Speaker 1: a half. There's some fifty five's out there as well.
Speaker 2: I will never bet at the Los Angeles Chargers game
Speaker 2: for the rest of my life that no team, no
Speaker 2: team in the NFL, goes out of their way to
Speaker 2: make my life a living hell more than the Los
Speaker 2: Angeles Charger.
Speaker 1: I bet.
Speaker 2: I bet the Chargers in the over last week. They
Speaker 2: didn't punt and they didn't go over or cover. So
Speaker 2: I have completely written off the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, how about like, we're not talking about
Speaker 1: the over under on this one because you mentioned it before.
Speaker 1: But the Browns are laying seven to the Bears. Any
Speaker 1: value there, Yeah, it looked right. No real interest in
Speaker 1: the spread, but I do think the total is a
Speaker 1: good look all right? How about the Saints laying no
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, the Patriots laying three to the Saints and
Speaker 1: the total is forty two.
Speaker 2: Both numbers to me looked right, and God, both teams
Speaker 2: are just so polar opposite from to you know, if
Speaker 2: this game is played two years ago, the total is
Speaker 2: probably what fifty two? Just too big, too many unknowns,
Speaker 2: too too big of an adjustment to really have an
Speaker 2: edge there. So I passed as that.
Speaker 1: I the Raiders are home laying four and a half
Speaker 1: to the Dolphins with the total forty four, no two
Speaker 1: in this game, what do you think?
Speaker 2: I really wanted to lay to lay the chalk with
Speaker 2: the Raiders, but they're a team that I could see
Speaker 2: throwing up a dut after that after two big wins.
Speaker 2: Didn't really have any interest. I thought the over could
Speaker 2: have been a good play at forty four and a half,
Speaker 2: but many too many injuries under center to know how
Speaker 2: that game script's gonna go.
Speaker 1: Yep, stay away from me as well. Actually, the Seahawks
Speaker 1: visiting the Vikings. The Seahawks are one and a half
Speaker 1: point favorite and the total is fifty five and a half.
Speaker 2: I don't I'm not gonna play it, but I would
Speaker 2: have played under if I did. Just didn't seem like
Speaker 2: the right number. I know that Minnesota got into a
Speaker 2: shootout last last weekend and the week before that, but
Speaker 2: to me, I didn't. I made it fifty three and
Speaker 2: a half and just just seems like an underplay to me,
Speaker 2: to be honest.
Speaker 1: Packer's visiting the forty nine ers. It's now at three
Speaker 1: and the over under is fifty. It wasn't four at
Speaker 1: one point, and I took it at four. I'm wondering
Speaker 1: what you think of it right now at three.
Speaker 2: No real opinion on the spread, just the two really
Speaker 2: good teams, and I can't really get a pulse on
Speaker 2: Green Bay. It's just two polar opposite results. I want
Speaker 2: to say that the team's back and that week one
Speaker 2: was just an outlier, but I really don't know. Because
Speaker 2: I love San Francisco and was extremely high on San
Speaker 2: Francisco coming into the year, so laying off the spread,
Speaker 2: but I do like I think that there's gonna be
Speaker 2: points in the game. I think the over is a
Speaker 2: good play, all right.
Speaker 1: I don't know if we touched on the over under
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys Eagles, but it's fifty two. Do you
Speaker 1: have an opinion that.
Speaker 2: I would have taken anything at fifty two or better
Speaker 2: again the Cowboys. To me, baseline, you have to start
Speaker 2: at fifty two and playing the Eagles, you know, we
Speaker 2: saw fifty one and a half. I thought it should
Speaker 2: have been fifty two and a half or fifty three. Again,
Speaker 2: it didn't force a punt. Last week to me, has
Speaker 2: two consecutives really really bad games for the defense, and
Speaker 2: I don't think dan Quinn has figured it out. I
Speaker 2: think playing against a dual threat quarterback with maybe one
Speaker 2: of the fastest receiving corps in the entire league is
Speaker 2: going to be a tough game plan for that defense,
Speaker 2: and I think there's just gonna be big plays everywhere.
Speaker 2: So I think over fifty two is a really good play.
Speaker 1: Awesome, let's recap very quickly once again. You are taking
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and the Jaguars over fifty two, the Bucks
Speaker 1: laying one to the Rams and the Browns and the
Speaker 1: Bears to go over forty six. I really I am
Speaker 1: in line with all three of those plays. Unfortunately for me,
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Eagles getting three and a half from
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, the Jets and the Broncos under forty one
Speaker 1: and a half, and the Titans laying five to the
Speaker 1: You know, last last week, Alex, like, I felt like
Speaker 1: there were a lot of very clear bounce back spots
Speaker 1: like the Vikings.
Speaker 2: The Vikings to me when you were rattling off your wins,
Speaker 2: I'm like, this guy, this guy wasn't gonna get bit
Speaker 2: by the overreaction bug.
Speaker 1: He's not good. I felt like there was a lot
Speaker 1: of that. After week one, I completely understood it. I
Speaker 1: felt like Week two is like your Week two is
Speaker 1: my favorite week to bet, Like it really is, because
Speaker 1: I feel like it's just constant, constant overreaction, Like the Vikings.
Speaker 1: It was disgusting. I felt gross doing it, but I
Speaker 1: was like, this is obviously a game that I have
Speaker 1: to run and take. I don't feel that great right
Speaker 1: now about this one, but it's still It's it's enough
Speaker 1: there where I'm gonna enjoy it. This is great talk
Speaker 1: to you. We haven't talked obviously last year was all
Speaker 1: weird with the way you know football. Was glad to
Speaker 1: have you back on can't wait to do it again.
Speaker 1: Remind everybody where they could find you and your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks so much, Dan. I'm on Twitter at aj
Speaker 2: K O L O, d Z I E J.
Speaker 1: And now and now that right now, the pronunciation you did.
Speaker 2: You know what, I will admit to the uh to
Speaker 2: the listeners, you absolutely nailed the last name in the
Speaker 2: pre show that I was like, unbelieve this guy's been practicing.
Speaker 1: I try, I do. I will be honest that I
Speaker 1: try to practice pronouncing your name once a day for
Speaker 1: the last four hundred and thirty four days. So I'm
Speaker 1: glad that it right and it worked. It worked well,
Speaker 1: So that's great. All right, everybody. I hope you guys
Speaker 1: have a great weekend of gambling. We'll be back as
Speaker 1: we always are here on Monday, taking an early look
Speaker 1: at the lines for week four. I'll talk to you
Speaker 1: them