WEBVTT - NFL Week 3 Best Bets (Ep. 107) 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:16.920 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm 0:00:16.960 --> 0:00:20.360 your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris. 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:20.720 Eighty. 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:23.200 Week two is done. It is time to look ahead 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:26.680 to week three and give our three best bets or 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:29.840 six if you include our guest, who is my old friend, 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:32.639 Alex Kaloj from the Action Network. You can find him 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:35.440 on Twitter at aj Kaloj. I'm not going to spell 0:00:35.479 --> 0:00:36.960 his last name. He can do that for you if 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:39.760 you want, Alex. It's been a long time to be 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:41.760 caught up. How you doing doing well? 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:44.240 Man, been a couple of years, But excited to chop 0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:45.800 it up and talk a little Week three with you. 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:49.040 It is very exciting. You do great work over there 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:51.280 at the Action Network, so I'm excited to hear about 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:52.800 your picks right now so I can trail them and 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:55.040 then take credit for them, as I often do with 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:57.080 everything that you do. So, as I said, we're going 0:00:57.120 --> 0:00:58.680 to do our three best bets for the week. We're 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:02.440 gonna whatever we want, spread over under whatever we want 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:04.880 to do, even moneyline if we wanted to, and then 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:07.120 we're just going to quickly run through all the remaining 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:09.360 spreads of the games that we didn't pick talk about 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:11.160 whether we like any of them. But before we do, 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:13.280 let's get some housekeeping out of the way. First. The 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.600 offer from bet MGM new customers bet ten dollars, win 0:01:16.840 --> 0:01:21.360 two hundred dollars if your team scores a touchdown. So again, 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:24.080 you bet ten dollars on either team. You win two 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:26.720 hundred dollars in free bets. If the team you bet 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:30.520 on scores a touchdown. That's code Juice one hundred. Again, 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:31.440 I've given this before. 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:32.400 Juice. 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:36.160 The Daily Juice is our other podcast hosted by Matt Perrault. 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:38.520 Again Daily Podcasts would you should be subscribing to, But 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:41.320 the code is Juice one hundred over at bet MGM. Finally, 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:43.000 we are giving away a sign to a tongue of 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:45.320 Iloa Jersey. All you need to do to be entered 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:47.560 is to leave a roof for the podcast on Apple 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:50.600 Podcasts or cashbox and then go to Bettingpros dot com 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.440 slash review if you're subscribed to the Betting Pros YouTube 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:56.800 channel over at YouTube dot com slash betting Pros, and 0:01:56.840 --> 0:02:00.120 that counts as three times be entry. All right, we're 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:02.440 gonna get going here. I will give the consensus lines 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:04.840 over at bettingpros dot Com just so everybody knows. But 0:02:04.920 --> 0:02:07.480 there are obviously different books which you can also see 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:10.800 last week Bill. Very quickly, let's go through what we did. 0:02:11.000 --> 0:02:13.760 Our guest Rich Ryan. He hit on the Panthers plus 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:15.800 three and a half, not close, but he did miss 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:18.799 on the Jaguars plus six and the Texans Browns under 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:20.960 forty seven and a half. I hit on the Vikings 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:22.960 getting three and a half from the Cardinals, the Titans 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:24.840 getting five and a half from the Seahawks, but I 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:27.359 missed on the Dolphins getting three and a half from 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:30.400 the Bills. Narrow miss by thirty two points. But that's fine. 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:32.640 We're gonna do better this week. Alex, you were the 0:02:32.680 --> 0:02:36.600 guest start us off. What is your favorite bet for 0:02:36.680 --> 0:02:38.160 Week three of the NFL season. 0:02:38.880 --> 0:02:42.120 Yeah, my favorite bet is, unfortunately, the one game on 0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:45.960 the board that I scanned and said, well, they're gonna 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:50.160 be like fifteen hundred yards and a combined point total 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:53.639 like thirty just because and that was the Cardinals Jags 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:56.200 over fifty two. I honestly thought it was just a 0:02:56.200 --> 0:02:59.240 soft number at open. It kind of scares the hell 0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:01.240 out of me that there's bet and zero resistance on 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:06.240 the total. But this is basically the epitome of if 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:08.000 the Jaguars are going to be the team that stops 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:10.520 the Cardinals and Kyler Murray, I will pay to watch 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:13.359 it happen. I had a good buddy who made a 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:16.760 pretty good point. Although it's a cross country trip and 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:19.280 an early star for a West Coast team, it's gonna 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:22.000 be hot in Florida and a defense that's been on 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:24.000 the field for a long time has to chase around 0:03:24.040 --> 0:03:28.040 a quarterback that can't be tackled. The Jaguars defense, to me, 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:31.520 is just absolutely awful and has been overshadowed with the 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:35.960 Urban and Trevor Lawrence news. They played Tyrod Taylor and 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:42.520 Teddy Bridgewater, two quarterbacks who are allergic to YPA, I mean, 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:47.640 two of just bland game managers, and they both just 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:50.680 riped the Jaguars up. So to me, this was just 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:52.840 a play of I think the Cardinals are gonna score. 0:03:52.880 --> 0:03:55.800 It will not really a much of a hot take there. 0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:58.840 They've done whatever they wanted the last two weeks and 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:00.760 they look like they're having fun. And admittedly I'm not 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:02.840 a big Cliff Kingsbury guy, but he just it just 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:05.880 seems like he's actually having fun, and they're using every 0:04:05.920 --> 0:04:08.760 single receiver that they have and again having fun in 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:11.840 the process. And really the only upside for Jet the 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:15.080 Jaguars offense here is being able to throw the ball, 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:18.640 so a lot of Trevor Lawrence passing attempts. I think 0:04:18.680 --> 0:04:20.080 if you like the over, you have to like the 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:22.880 Cardinals and vice versa. This seemed very correlated to me. 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:24.960 But the first bet I played this week was the 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:27.200 over fifty two, and I was pretty content with doing it. 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:32.120 Yeah, I mean, you think Cardinals offense right now looks 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:34.000 pretty much as good of an offense as again, even 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:37.159 if you contain them somehow for like a moment. Murray 0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:38.920 is going to find a way right now with him 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:40.680 being one hundred percent, And we can't count on that 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:42.640 all year, right because it's like, guy, take some hits 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:45.520 and everything like that. But right now with DeAndre Hopkins, 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:49.080 AJ Green, Withever, Christian Kirk, I'm completely obsessed with Rondell 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:51.880 Moore and I have been basically right since he was drafted. 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:54.320 Just here's my dude. So they are going to put 0:04:54.360 --> 0:04:56.120 up points without that. It's really just a matter of 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:58.640 whether or not the Jaguars can as well. And at 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:01.520 the very least there's going be garbage time in this 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:03.880 game where Lawrence is gonna get to throw. So I 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:06.680 am with you. I'm looking over at bettingpros dot com. 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:10.320 The over eighty three percent of our people, of our 0:05:10.360 --> 0:05:12.320 experts who are taking it are with the over. So 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:13.960 I'm with you. I'm gonna tral it and if it 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:15.680 hits them taking credit for it. And there's nothing you 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:16.200 can do about it. 0:05:16.240 --> 0:05:18.839 Because you know what's funny, Dan, The only the only 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:21.320 downside of this handicap is, oh darn, the Jaguars won't 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:23.440 have a pass rush, so Kyler can't run around for 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:27.599 fifty yards and chuck chuck ninety yard broken place to rondelmore, 0:05:27.640 --> 0:05:30.240 Oh darn, Like you know that might not happen. 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:33.039 It's difficult. He's just gonna have to do it like 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:35.520 normally and stand in the pocket, in a clean pocket 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:37.800 and throw ninety yard touchdowns. That way, it's gonna be fine. 0:05:37.800 --> 0:05:40.719 But I agree with you, it's it's funny that almost benefits, 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:43.479 right because the broken plays, and you've seen them happen 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:45.800 in each of the cardinals first two games, like those 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:49.360 result in giant plays going forward, So that is something 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:51.960 that maybe you can count as a negative, but either way, 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:54.560 man like this is this is gonna go over obviously. 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:56.880 You know i'd over in their first game against the Titans. 0:05:56.920 --> 0:05:59.240 That should have gone over as the way I like 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:01.119 to say it was, you knowway through the third quarter 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.640 they needed one point, they didn't get it. But I 0:06:03.720 --> 0:06:05.800 really think that this is a good bet. I'm with 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:08.599 you here. I have also selected the over in the 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:13.400 betting pros app so hopefully it goes now. I'm very 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:18.240 interested to get your take on my best bet. I 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:21.040 do not know which way sort of the you know, 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:23.680 sharp betters are going with this people in the know. 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:26.240 I actually haven't heard that many people talk about it. 0:06:26.320 --> 0:06:29.080 Maybe I have missed it, but to me, it's a 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:31.920 line that when I saw come out, I was going 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:34.200 to take it, and it hasn't moved and I understand why. 0:06:34.400 --> 0:06:36.760 And it's the Eagles. They're now getting three and a half, 0:06:37.000 --> 0:06:40.080 but it vacillates between three and four, so one or 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:42.919 the other. But the Eagles getting more than a field 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:47.159 goal against the Cowboys. I get that the Eagles last 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:50.039 week were a little disappointing, like of course, but I 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:52.960 think that's much more about the forty nine ers and 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:55.440 their defense being stronger than people give them credit for, 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:57.720 just because they let the Lions get back into it 0:06:57.720 --> 0:07:00.320 after the lines were completely dominated throughout the game, which 0:07:00.320 --> 0:07:02.200 I think was more of them kind of taking it easy, 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:04.920 taking their foot off the gas pedal. And I think 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:07.000 if Jalen Rager doesn't step out of that touchdown, then 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.080 that winds up being a touchdown that that really could 0:07:09.120 --> 0:07:11.640 have changed the game. Now, the Cowboys come off the 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:14.080 big win against the Chargers, and I admit I didn't 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:15.840 like them in that game. I thought that the Chargers 0:07:15.840 --> 0:07:18.960 win that game and basically covered the three point spread. 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:21.400 It wasn't one of my best but either way, it's 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:24.280 one season. Okay, we've seen Mike McCarthy for a long time. 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:26.280 You look at what he did last year, one in 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:29.680 five against the spread individual games, oh and five as 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:33.240 home favorites. Now I get it like that, no Dack, 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:36.240 but the lines are taking into account that Ben Denucci 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:38.280 was the starting quarterback at one point, Like, those are 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:40.400 the lines, and I just don't have a lot of 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:42.760 faith in McCarthy as the head coach. We've also got 0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:45.120 a Mark Cooper really banged up with the ribs, and 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:47.960 I'm sure you know, like rib injuries are tough, They're 0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:50.600 very difficult to play through, especially like that while Collins 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:53.040 is out, Marcus Lawrence is out, the Cowboys are just 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:55.280 a little banged up. It's not all great for the Eagles. 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:57.120 Eagles are banged up too. They've got Brandon Brooks and 0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:59.040 brand and Graham both placed on IR this week. But 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:03.120 I've been a fan of Jalen Hurts is, you know, 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:05.200 maybe not the greatest passer in the world, but I think, 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:08.000 you know, with the way Sirianni designed this offense in 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:10.320 the offseason, I think it's going to accentuate what he 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:12.880 can do. And I'm more sort of looking out that 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:14.760 last week as sort of saying the forty nine ers 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:16.880 have a really good defense. I don't think suddenly the 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:20.680 Eagles were exposed. It's the nfcast. The games are usually tight. 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:22.720 I see this as closer to a field goal game, 0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:25.280 and I understand the public loves the Cowboys, but I 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:27.040 don't know, man, I want to hear your take on 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:29.120 this because for me, I like the Eagles getting more 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:30.360 in the field goal in this game. 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:33.240 The over fifty one and a half to me just 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:36.040 missed the cut of my three plays, mainly because I 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:38.320 think when you're starting with Cowboys totals, you have to 0:08:38.360 --> 0:08:42.120 start baseline fifty two and drawing the Eagles, I thought 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:43.720 you were going to work your way up, not down. 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:45.800 So to me, I thought that number was short. It 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:48.640 did make my card. I will say, though, Philadelphia to 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:51.720 me is a team that already and we saw it 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:55.520 as early as last week, already has some market support 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:58.520 after Week one, a team that really, I mean, if 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:00.400 we look back at preseason win totals, had one of 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:04.720 the lowest win totals, wasn't really thought of as as 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.679 a threat to the NFC East at all. And then 0:09:07.720 --> 0:09:10.400 we turn around week two, they're getting what three and 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:12.080 a half? Three and a half at home to the 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:15.240 to the Niners, a team that's projected to win like 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:19.440 eleven games this season. So it seems like the Eagles 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:21.559 were a team right off the bat that just immediately 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:24.160 received support from the market and was going to be 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:27.000 a lot better than the market projected it, you know, 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:29.400 a couple of weeks ago. I have no interest in 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:33.760 laying chalk with Dallas in the spot. Mike McCarthy is 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:38.880 bound to make multiple coaching mistakes again again, no interest 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:41.640 in laying more than a field goal on in division 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:45.040 with that defense that didn't force a punt last week. 0:09:45.160 --> 0:09:47.200 It just can't do it. 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:49.200 But you don't. But you don't. You are not on 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:51.719 the Eagles right like you don't because again I I'm not, 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:54.040 Like I'm looking at our bed analyzer, fifty seven percent 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:56.560 of experts are taking the Eagles, so that, I mean, 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:59.400 that's a pretty even split generally speaking. But this is 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:01.360 not a bet I hear anybody talking about. It's not 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:03.679 a bet I hear anybody want or anything like that 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:06.920 to me. I don't know, man, I may be completely 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:10.280 like my perception of the Eagles maybe just completely off 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:14.440 generally speaking. We so I've mentioned this before, but the 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:18.040 Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association does a prop bet league 0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:21.520 where you draft prop bets. Okay, I won it last year. 0:10:21.559 --> 0:10:23.640 To think, my first bet, or one of my first 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.720 bets is here was sirianni at Coach of the Year 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:29.599 and it was just something where again that that's a 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:31.160 lot of the way you bet Coach of the Year, 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:33.000 and there's a lot of you know, details about it 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:34.840 why it's sort of fit and there's a limited number 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:38.520 of situations that usually will allow for a Coach of 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.160 the Year. But I also thought that I from what 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:43.200 I've known about Sirianni, I really like them. I think 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.360 if the Eagles sort of always deal with a ton 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:48.040 of injuries if they can avoid it. They're already dealing 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:50.360 with injuries unfortunately, but if they can avoid major ones, 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:53.440 they add DeVante Smith, you give them an entire year 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:56.600 to build an offense around Jalen Hurts his strength. This 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:59.120 is a team that could really surprise some people. And 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:02.360 I know Atlanta wasn't great like you know in Week one, 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:04.079 and they're not a great team, but they kind of 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:06.840 hung with the Bucks, right like they outgained the Bucks. 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:09.520 It's just sort of the two pick six is. I 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:12.120 don't think Atlanta is quite as bad as the Eagles 0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:14.520 made them look. I think realistically the forty nine ers 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:16.520 are just better than people are giving them credit for, 0:11:16.559 --> 0:11:18.800 which is why the Eagles struggled. I think the Eagles 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:21.400 win this game outright, So I mean, for me, I 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:23.640 will take more than a field goal. But again, this 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:25.760 does not sound like a game that you are on 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:27.679 on either side. Right Well, I will. 0:11:27.480 --> 0:11:30.160 Say this, Dan, I'm interested to see how the number 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:33.439 moves not only throughout the week, but Sunday too. If 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:37.040 if the books have some sort of big decision or 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.439 you know, favorites are constantly winning, and we start seeing 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:43.120 some money in coming in in Dallas's favor, we could 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:47.520 possibly see some fours popping up. So again, not necessarily 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:49.920 a number that stood out to me right away, but again, 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:54.160 if it's any consolation, I wouldn't lay any chalk with 0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:57.360 Dallas at home in division primetime game against a dual 0:11:57.400 --> 0:12:00.319 threat quarterback. I just have no faith in the defense 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:03.240 right now. Or Mike McCarthy, he made another Like I 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:07.720 was in the airport last week, and I'm not trying 0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:09.640 to be a nip. People like Mike McCarthy just makes 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:11.400 a bonehead move and I'm just like standing there, like 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:14.120 looking around, like wondering if anybody is watching the same 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:17.280 exact game that I'm watching. It's just it's really unnecessary. 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:19.559 It's gonna come back to kill this team, and I 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:23.160 wouldn't be surprised if it's this weekend. It's going it's inevitable. 0:12:23.280 --> 0:12:26.640 Dan, I don't need your consolation, man, I don't need you. 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:29.160 I don't need you telling me like, hey man, look 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:30.800 it's all right, I don't mind. I don't mind being 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:33.200 in the I'm in the majority technically actually because as 0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:36.000 I said, fifty seven percent. But yeah, this is really 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:39.560 something Alex worth this weekend. I feel like my feelings 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:41.960 on the Eagles are either going to be validated or 0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:45.080 shown to be incorrect because this is a week against 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.520 a banged up Cowboys team coming off a big win, 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:50.080 and I get it, and it's Monday night and whatever 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:52.600 in a divisional game. If they lose this game by 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.840 more than three points A, I'm going to be really surprised. B. 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:58.640 I think I'm gonna say, Okay, maybe I'm wrong in 0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:00.559 the way I'm evaluating them, but again, and this is 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:02.560 my favorite bet. I've been on this since that I 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:04.960 looked at the opening line. It was there were fours 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:07.000 and three and a halfs. It hasn't moved all week 0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:09.839 as far as I can see, So I'm excited about it. 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:11.960 But let's get to your second bet, which I will hate, 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:14.360 but I will give you a consolation of I won't 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:15.160 take the other side. 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:18.800 Okay, Hey, thanks Dan, Yeah, let's take TV. I took 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:23.360 Tampa bat pick to me, this is the optimal time 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:29.960 to sell the Rams defense last year, Pitt Washington, we're 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:32.400 the best at creating havoc getting after the passer. But 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:36.080 when you look at basic peripher roles, standard downs and stuff, 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:39.280 LA was fantastic with Brandon Staley number one in a 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:42.040 lot of different metrics. And so you look at who 0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:45.480 they've played so far, Chicago, Andy Dalton. Watching that game, 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:48.040 I wouldn't say it was a bad game or a 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:50.560 good game. They just basically gave Andy Dalton whatever he wanted. 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.160 Dalton doesn't push the ball down the field. They were 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:56.640 content with just letting him throw dank and dunks against 0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:58.760 the Colts. I bet the over last week against the Colts, 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:00.920 and that game was hard to watch because of Carson Wentz. 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:03.640 And I don't think Indianapolis has that grid of a 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:05.880 of a receiving corpse, to be completely honest with you. 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:09.240 And they move the ball. They move the ball oftentimes 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:13.200 at will. And so really, if there was any downside 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:18.120 to this handicap, it's the you know, cross country trip whatever. 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:20.880 But honestly, if this is Tom Brady, if there's any 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:23.200 quarterback that's going to defy any sort of trend or 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:25.400 angle like that, it's going to be TV and to 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:27.640 be honest, watching him play the last two weeks, he 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.280 just you know, it sounds cliche, but he just looks 0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:34.920 like he wants to play football and like is actually trying, 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:38.160 and they can't run the ball, and I would expect him. 0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:40.840 You know, he's played Aaron Donald before, he's played this 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:44.040 defense before. He's not going to get sucked into the 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:46.240 pass rush and he's not going to throw Jalen Ramsey's 0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:48.680 way ten times a game. So there are ways around 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:50.920 the defense. I think it's the perfect time to sell. 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:53.280 I think the Rams team total under could be a 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:55.720 good look based off of who they've played so far. 0:14:57.400 --> 0:14:59.120 To me, I thought this was a really cheap price, 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:01.080 and I don't think you're gonna a lot of spots 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:03.360 to bet Tampa Bay at a number like this. To 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:05.840 be honest, I know this sounds kind of weird. I 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:08.800 would have played Tampa Bay up to minus three plus 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:10.640 one hundred. And the only reason I say that is 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.360 because I don't think we were ever going to see 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.200 a three in the market, just because if you flip 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:20.840 that around, we're essentially applying implying that Tampa Bay would 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:23.040 be like a you know, seven, seven and a half 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:25.440 point home favorite and that's just not gonna happen. And 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:27.200 so this line, to me, I think there's a lot 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:30.320 of value on Tampa Bay good time to sell the 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:32.160 Rams defense, So I thought it was a cheap price 0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:32.840 to play the box. 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:36.080 I agree with you there there at the lines moving 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:37.320 a little bit, there's a lot of one and a 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:40.000 half's now out there. But that's I'm glad you brought 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:41.680 that up because I was gonna ask, like, what is 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:43.200 the number you will play it up to? Because I 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.760 think this number is going to continue to climb incrementally. 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:48.760 I don't think it gets to three or anything like that, 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:50.600 but I do think that it's going to continue to 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:53.240 rise up. I agree with you in this one. Now, 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:55.760 Antonio Brown is probably going to be out in this game, 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.680 which takes away one of the weapons necessarily, and that 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:00.840 you know, when you have a couple of down cornerbacks 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:02.520 like the Rams have, that does make a difference because 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:06.080 there is like the third option is out. But I 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:08.800 agree with you in this game. And look last game, right, 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.680 like the Colt could have won that game, right, I 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:15.240 mean right, they started off right up down the field 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:17.560 and and didn't convert, you know, in that in that 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:19.080 first one, so go ahead. 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:21.720 I was gonna say, I believe it was two trips 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:24.120 into the red zone one rack, one was a fumble, 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:26.160 the other was a turnover on downs. And I remember 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:27.440 at that point my brother was looking at me and 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:29.760 he was like, hey, sorry, you didn't deserve that, you know, 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:31.640 because I had you over. But at the same time, 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:36.360 you know, there was little resistance, and Carson Wentz didn't 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:38.040 play that great of a game. He was he was 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:41.800 making some very very dumb mistakes. You played Andy Dalton, 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:43.440 and you played Carson Wentz, and now you got to 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:44.960 play a Tom Brady. This is a huge step up 0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:47.240 in competition for a defense that I think is again 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:49.640 just the perfect time to sell off. 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:53.520 Yeah. No, I'm agree, and I'd be surprised if Daryl 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:55.200 Henderson plays in this game as well. And I know 0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:57.600 people are like, well, whatever, but Sony Michelle is not 0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.960 a pass catcher, even though his stats last year suggested 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:02.360 he could be necessarily. But it's not the same caliber 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:04.800 of back coming out of that backfield, so that does 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:06.879 make a difference as well. I'm in agreement with you 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:09.560 if you can take Brady like with the way that 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.080 team is playing, with the way Brady is playing, there 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:14.639 aren't that many. I remember last I mean, they were favorite, obviously, 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:17.720 but I remember last year when Baltimore was laying a 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:21.199 few points to Mahomes, and I remember being like, if 0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:23.560 you're telling me that I'm going to catch points with 0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:26.119 Patrick Mahomes, I'm just going to accept it. I'm not 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:27.919 gonna do. And this sort of feels like to me, 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:29.720 as good as the Rams are, if you're gonna at 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:31.399 this point, with the way he is playing and with 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:33.680 the way that entire team is playing, if you're gonna 0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:36.440 give me like they're laying a point and a half 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.280 with the with the Bucks, I'll take that day of 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:42.399 the week. So I hate to agree with you, but 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:46.080 I am agreeing with you. I'm going to give myself 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:51.000 a reason to watch my team, and I'm going to 0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:53.840 go with the Jets and the Broncos, and I'm going 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:55.360 to go. I'm just checking to make sure it's still there. 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:59.040 It was forty one and a half last time I saw, 0:17:59.119 --> 0:18:01.840 which is a low over under, and I don't care 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:04.280 because I'm going with the under. I'm just checking to 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:06.440 make sure it has not moved. Give me a second, 0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:08.719 is totally fine. I just checked up. But now I'm 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:10.159