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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris.

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Speaker 2: Eighty.

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Speaker 1: Week two is done. It is time to look ahead

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Speaker 1: to week three and give our three best bets or

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Speaker 1: six if you include our guest, who is my old friend,

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Speaker 1: Alex Kaloj from the Action Network. You can find him

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at aj Kaloj. I'm not going to spell

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Speaker 1: his last name. He can do that for you if

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Speaker 1: you want, Alex. It's been a long time to be

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Speaker 1: caught up. How you doing doing well?

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Speaker 2: Man, been a couple of years, But excited to chop

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Speaker 2: it up and talk a little Week three with you.

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Speaker 1: It is very exciting. You do great work over there

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Speaker 1: at the Action Network, so I'm excited to hear about

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Speaker 1: your picks right now so I can trail them and

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Speaker 1: then take credit for them, as I often do with

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Speaker 1: everything that you do. So, as I said, we're going

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Speaker 1: to do our three best bets for the week. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna whatever we want, spread over under whatever we want

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Speaker 1: to do, even moneyline if we wanted to, and then

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Speaker 1: we're just going to quickly run through all the remaining

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Speaker 1: spreads of the games that we didn't pick talk about

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Speaker 1: whether we like any of them. But before we do,

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Speaker 1: let's get some housekeeping out of the way. First. The

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Speaker 1: offer from bet MGM new customers bet ten dollars, win

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Speaker 1: two hundred dollars if your team scores a touchdown. So again,

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Speaker 1: you bet ten dollars on either team. You win two

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars in free bets. If the team you bet

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Speaker 1: on scores a touchdown. That's code Juice one hundred. Again,

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Speaker 1: I've given this before.

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Speaker 2: Juice.

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Speaker 1: The Daily Juice is our other podcast hosted by Matt Perrault.

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Speaker 1: Again Daily Podcasts would you should be subscribing to, But

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Speaker 1: the code is Juice one hundred over at bet MGM. Finally,

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Speaker 1: we are giving away a sign to a tongue of

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Speaker 1: Iloa Jersey. All you need to do to be entered

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Speaker 1: is to leave a roof for the podcast on Apple

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Speaker 1: Podcasts or cashbox and then go to Bettingpros dot com

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Speaker 1: slash review if you're subscribed to the Betting Pros YouTube

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Speaker 1: channel over at YouTube dot com slash betting Pros, and

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Speaker 1: that counts as three times be entry. All right, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna get going here. I will give the consensus lines

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Speaker 1: over at bettingpros dot Com just so everybody knows. But

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Speaker 1: there are obviously different books which you can also see

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Speaker 1: last week Bill. Very quickly, let's go through what we did.

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Speaker 1: Our guest Rich Ryan. He hit on the Panthers plus

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Speaker 1: three and a half, not close, but he did miss

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Speaker 1: on the Jaguars plus six and the Texans Browns under

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Speaker 1: forty seven and a half. I hit on the Vikings

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Speaker 1: getting three and a half from the Cardinals, the Titans

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Speaker 1: getting five and a half from the Seahawks, but I

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Speaker 1: missed on the Dolphins getting three and a half from

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Speaker 1: the Bills. Narrow miss by thirty two points. But that's fine.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do better this week. Alex, you were the

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Speaker 1: guest start us off. What is your favorite bet for

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Speaker 1: Week three of the NFL season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, my favorite bet is, unfortunately, the one game on

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Speaker 2: the board that I scanned and said, well, they're gonna

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Speaker 2: be like fifteen hundred yards and a combined point total

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Speaker 2: like thirty just because and that was the Cardinals Jags

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Speaker 2: over fifty two. I honestly thought it was just a

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Speaker 2: soft number at open. It kind of scares the hell

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Speaker 2: out of me that there's bet and zero resistance on

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Speaker 2: the total. But this is basically the epitome of if

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Speaker 2: the Jaguars are going to be the team that stops

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals and Kyler Murray, I will pay to watch

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Speaker 2: it happen. I had a good buddy who made a

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Speaker 2: pretty good point. Although it's a cross country trip and

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Speaker 2: an early star for a West Coast team, it's gonna

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Speaker 2: be hot in Florida and a defense that's been on

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Speaker 2: the field for a long time has to chase around

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Speaker 2: a quarterback that can't be tackled. The Jaguars defense, to me,

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Speaker 2: is just absolutely awful and has been overshadowed with the

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Speaker 2: Urban and Trevor Lawrence news. They played Tyrod Taylor and

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Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater, two quarterbacks who are allergic to YPA, I mean,

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Speaker 2: two of just bland game managers, and they both just

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Speaker 2: riped the Jaguars up. So to me, this was just

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Speaker 2: a play of I think the Cardinals are gonna score.

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Speaker 2: It will not really a much of a hot take there.

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Speaker 2: They've done whatever they wanted the last two weeks and

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Speaker 2: they look like they're having fun. And admittedly I'm not

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Speaker 2: a big Cliff Kingsbury guy, but he just it just

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Speaker 2: seems like he's actually having fun, and they're using every

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Speaker 2: single receiver that they have and again having fun in

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Speaker 2: the process. And really the only upside for Jet the

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Speaker 2: Jaguars offense here is being able to throw the ball,

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Speaker 2: so a lot of Trevor Lawrence passing attempts. I think

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Speaker 2: if you like the over, you have to like the

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Speaker 2: Cardinals and vice versa. This seemed very correlated to me.

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Speaker 2: But the first bet I played this week was the

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Speaker 2: over fifty two, and I was pretty content with doing it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you think Cardinals offense right now looks

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Speaker 1: pretty much as good of an offense as again, even

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Speaker 1: if you contain them somehow for like a moment. Murray

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Speaker 1: is going to find a way right now with him

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Speaker 1: being one hundred percent, And we can't count on that

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Speaker 1: all year, right because it's like, guy, take some hits

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Speaker 1: and everything like that. But right now with DeAndre Hopkins,

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Speaker 1: AJ Green, Withever, Christian Kirk, I'm completely obsessed with Rondell

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Speaker 1: Moore and I have been basically right since he was drafted.

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Speaker 1: Just here's my dude. So they are going to put

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Speaker 1: up points without that. It's really just a matter of

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Speaker 1: whether or not the Jaguars can as well. And at

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Speaker 1: the very least there's going be garbage time in this

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Speaker 1: game where Lawrence is gonna get to throw. So I

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Speaker 1: am with you. I'm looking over at bettingpros dot com.

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Speaker 1: The over eighty three percent of our people, of our

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Speaker 1: experts who are taking it are with the over. So

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Speaker 1: I'm with you. I'm gonna tral it and if it

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Speaker 1: hits them taking credit for it. And there's nothing you

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Speaker 1: can do about it.

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Speaker 2: Because you know what's funny, Dan, The only the only

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Speaker 2: downside of this handicap is, oh darn, the Jaguars won't

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Speaker 2: have a pass rush, so Kyler can't run around for

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Speaker 2: fifty yards and chuck chuck ninety yard broken place to rondelmore,

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Speaker 2: Oh darn, Like you know that might not happen.

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Speaker 1: It's difficult. He's just gonna have to do it like

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Speaker 1: normally and stand in the pocket, in a clean pocket

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Speaker 1: and throw ninety yard touchdowns. That way, it's gonna be fine.

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Speaker 1: But I agree with you, it's it's funny that almost benefits,

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Speaker 1: right because the broken plays, and you've seen them happen

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Speaker 1: in each of the cardinals first two games, like those

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Speaker 1: result in giant plays going forward, So that is something

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Speaker 1: that maybe you can count as a negative, but either way,

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Speaker 1: man like this is this is gonna go over obviously.

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Speaker 1: You know i'd over in their first game against the Titans.

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Speaker 1: That should have gone over as the way I like

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Speaker 1: to say it was, you knowway through the third quarter

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Speaker 1: they needed one point, they didn't get it. But I

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Speaker 1: really think that this is a good bet. I'm with

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Speaker 1: you here. I have also selected the over in the

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Speaker 1: betting pros app so hopefully it goes now. I'm very

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Speaker 1: interested to get your take on my best bet. I

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Speaker 1: do not know which way sort of the you know,

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Speaker 1: sharp betters are going with this people in the know.

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Speaker 1: I actually haven't heard that many people talk about it.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I have missed it, but to me, it's a

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Speaker 1: line that when I saw come out, I was going

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Speaker 1: to take it, and it hasn't moved and I understand why.

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Speaker 1: And it's the Eagles. They're now getting three and a half,

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Speaker 1: but it vacillates between three and four, so one or

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Speaker 1: the other. But the Eagles getting more than a field

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Speaker 1: goal against the Cowboys. I get that the Eagles last

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Speaker 1: week were a little disappointing, like of course, but I

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Speaker 1: think that's much more about the forty nine ers and

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Speaker 1: their defense being stronger than people give them credit for,

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Speaker 1: just because they let the Lions get back into it

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Speaker 1: after the lines were completely dominated throughout the game, which

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Speaker 1: I think was more of them kind of taking it easy,

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Speaker 1: taking their foot off the gas pedal. And I think

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Speaker 1: if Jalen Rager doesn't step out of that touchdown, then

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Speaker 1: that winds up being a touchdown that that really could

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Speaker 1: have changed the game. Now, the Cowboys come off the

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Speaker 1: big win against the Chargers, and I admit I didn't

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Speaker 1: like them in that game. I thought that the Chargers

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Speaker 1: win that game and basically covered the three point spread.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't one of my best but either way, it's

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Speaker 1: one season. Okay, we've seen Mike McCarthy for a long time.

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Speaker 1: You look at what he did last year, one in

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Speaker 1: five against the spread individual games, oh and five as

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Speaker 1: home favorites. Now I get it like that, no Dack,

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Speaker 1: but the lines are taking into account that Ben Denucci

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Speaker 1: was the starting quarterback at one point, Like, those are

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Speaker 1: the lines, and I just don't have a lot of

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Speaker 1: faith in McCarthy as the head coach. We've also got

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Speaker 1: a Mark Cooper really banged up with the ribs, and

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you know, like rib injuries are tough, They're

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Speaker 1: very difficult to play through, especially like that while Collins

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Speaker 1: is out, Marcus Lawrence is out, the Cowboys are just

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Speaker 1: a little banged up. It's not all great for the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: Eagles are banged up too. They've got Brandon Brooks and

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Speaker 1: brand and Graham both placed on IR this week. But

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Speaker 1: I've been a fan of Jalen Hurts is, you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe not the greatest passer in the world, but I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, with the way Sirianni designed this offense in

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Speaker 1: the offseason, I think it's going to accentuate what he

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Speaker 1: can do. And I'm more sort of looking out that

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Speaker 1: last week as sort of saying the forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: have a really good defense. I don't think suddenly the

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Speaker 1: Eagles were exposed. It's the nfcast. The games are usually tight.

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Speaker 1: I see this as closer to a field goal game,

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Speaker 1: and I understand the public loves the Cowboys, but I

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Speaker 1: don't know, man, I want to hear your take on

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Speaker 1: this because for me, I like the Eagles getting more

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Speaker 1: in the field goal in this game.

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Speaker 2: The over fifty one and a half to me just

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Speaker 2: missed the cut of my three plays, mainly because I

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Speaker 2: think when you're starting with Cowboys totals, you have to

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Speaker 2: start baseline fifty two and drawing the Eagles, I thought

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Speaker 2: you were going to work your way up, not down.

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Speaker 2: So to me, I thought that number was short. It

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Speaker 2: did make my card. I will say, though, Philadelphia to

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Speaker 2: me is a team that already and we saw it

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Speaker 2: as early as last week, already has some market support

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Speaker 2: after Week one, a team that really, I mean, if

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Speaker 2: we look back at preseason win totals, had one of

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Speaker 2: the lowest win totals, wasn't really thought of as as

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Speaker 2: a threat to the NFC East at all. And then

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Speaker 2: we turn around week two, they're getting what three and

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Speaker 2: a half? Three and a half at home to the

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Speaker 2: to the Niners, a team that's projected to win like

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Speaker 2: eleven games this season. So it seems like the Eagles

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Speaker 2: were a team right off the bat that just immediately

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Speaker 2: received support from the market and was going to be

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Speaker 2: a lot better than the market projected it, you know,

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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago. I have no interest in

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Speaker 2: laying chalk with Dallas in the spot. Mike McCarthy is

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Speaker 2: bound to make multiple coaching mistakes again again, no interest

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Speaker 2: in laying more than a field goal on in division

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Speaker 2: with that defense that didn't force a punt last week.

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Speaker 2: It just can't do it.

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Speaker 1: But you don't. But you don't. You are not on

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Speaker 1: the Eagles right like you don't because again I I'm not,

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Speaker 1: Like I'm looking at our bed analyzer, fifty seven percent

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Speaker 1: of experts are taking the Eagles, so that, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's a pretty even split generally speaking. But this is

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Speaker 1: not a bet I hear anybody talking about. It's not

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Speaker 1: a bet I hear anybody want or anything like that

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Speaker 1: to me. I don't know, man, I may be completely

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Speaker 1: like my perception of the Eagles maybe just completely off

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Speaker 1: generally speaking. We so I've mentioned this before, but the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association does a prop bet league

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Speaker 1: where you draft prop bets. Okay, I won it last year.

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Speaker 1: To think, my first bet, or one of my first

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Speaker 1: bets is here was sirianni at Coach of the Year

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Speaker 1: and it was just something where again that that's a

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Speaker 1: lot of the way you bet Coach of the Year,

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Speaker 1: and there's a lot of you know, details about it

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Speaker 1: why it's sort of fit and there's a limited number

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Speaker 1: of situations that usually will allow for a Coach of

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Speaker 1: the Year. But I also thought that I from what

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Speaker 1: I've known about Sirianni, I really like them. I think

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Speaker 1: if the Eagles sort of always deal with a ton

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Speaker 1: of injuries if they can avoid it. They're already dealing

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Speaker 1: with injuries unfortunately, but if they can avoid major ones,

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Speaker 1: they add DeVante Smith, you give them an entire year

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Speaker 1: to build an offense around Jalen Hurts his strength. This

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Speaker 1: is a team that could really surprise some people. And

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Speaker 1: I know Atlanta wasn't great like you know in Week one,

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Speaker 1: and they're not a great team, but they kind of

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Speaker 1: hung with the Bucks, right like they outgained the Bucks.

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Speaker 1: It's just sort of the two pick six is. I

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Speaker 1: don't think Atlanta is quite as bad as the Eagles

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Speaker 1: made them look. I think realistically the forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: are just better than people are giving them credit for,

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Speaker 1: which is why the Eagles struggled. I think the Eagles

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Speaker 1: win this game outright, So I mean, for me, I

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Speaker 1: will take more than a field goal. But again, this

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Speaker 1: does not sound like a game that you are on

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Speaker 1: on either side. Right Well, I will.

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Speaker 2: Say this, Dan, I'm interested to see how the number

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Speaker 2: moves not only throughout the week, but Sunday too. If

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Speaker 2: if the books have some sort of big decision or

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Speaker 2: you know, favorites are constantly winning, and we start seeing

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Speaker 2: some money in coming in in Dallas's favor, we could

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Speaker 2: possibly see some fours popping up. So again, not necessarily

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Speaker 2: a number that stood out to me right away, but again,

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Speaker 2: if it's any consolation, I wouldn't lay any chalk with

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Speaker 2: Dallas at home in division primetime game against a dual

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Speaker 2: threat quarterback. I just have no faith in the defense

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Speaker 2: right now. Or Mike McCarthy, he made another Like I

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Speaker 2: was in the airport last week, and I'm not trying

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Speaker 2: to be a nip. People like Mike McCarthy just makes

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Speaker 2: a bonehead move and I'm just like standing there, like

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Speaker 2: looking around, like wondering if anybody is watching the same

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Speaker 2: exact game that I'm watching. It's just it's really unnecessary.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna come back to kill this team, and I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if it's this weekend. It's going it's inevitable.

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Speaker 1: Dan, I don't need your consolation, man, I don't need you.

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Speaker 1: I don't need you telling me like, hey man, look

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Speaker 1: it's all right, I don't mind. I don't mind being

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Speaker 1: in the I'm in the majority technically actually because as

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Speaker 1: I said, fifty seven percent. But yeah, this is really

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Speaker 1: something Alex worth this weekend. I feel like my feelings

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Speaker 1: on the Eagles are either going to be validated or

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Speaker 1: shown to be incorrect because this is a week against

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Speaker 1: a banged up Cowboys team coming off a big win,

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Speaker 1: and I get it, and it's Monday night and whatever

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Speaker 1: in a divisional game. If they lose this game by

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Speaker 1: more than three points A, I'm going to be really surprised. B.

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Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna say, Okay, maybe I'm wrong in

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Speaker 1: the way I'm evaluating them, but again, and this is

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Speaker 1: my favorite bet. I've been on this since that I

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Speaker 1: looked at the opening line. It was there were fours

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Speaker 1: and three and a halfs. It hasn't moved all week

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Speaker 1: as far as I can see, So I'm excited about it.

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Speaker 1: But let's get to your second bet, which I will hate,

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Speaker 1: but I will give you a consolation of I won't

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Speaker 1: take the other side.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Hey, thanks Dan, Yeah, let's take TV. I took

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Speaker 2: Tampa bat pick to me, this is the optimal time

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Speaker 2: to sell the Rams defense last year, Pitt Washington, we're

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Speaker 2: the best at creating havoc getting after the passer. But

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Speaker 2: when you look at basic peripher roles, standard downs and stuff,

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Speaker 2: LA was fantastic with Brandon Staley number one in a

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Speaker 2: lot of different metrics. And so you look at who

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Speaker 2: they've played so far, Chicago, Andy Dalton. Watching that game,

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't say it was a bad game or a

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Speaker 2: good game. They just basically gave Andy Dalton whatever he wanted.

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Speaker 2: Dalton doesn't push the ball down the field. They were

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Speaker 2: content with just letting him throw dank and dunks against

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Speaker 2: the Colts. I bet the over last week against the Colts,

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Speaker 2: and that game was hard to watch because of Carson Wentz.

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Speaker 2: And I don't think Indianapolis has that grid of a

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Speaker 2: of a receiving corpse, to be completely honest with you.

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Speaker 2: And they move the ball. They move the ball oftentimes

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Speaker 2: at will. And so really, if there was any downside

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Speaker 2: to this handicap, it's the you know, cross country trip whatever.

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Speaker 2: But honestly, if this is Tom Brady, if there's any

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Speaker 2: quarterback that's going to defy any sort of trend or

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Speaker 2: angle like that, it's going to be TV and to

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Speaker 2: be honest, watching him play the last two weeks, he

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Speaker 2: just you know, it sounds cliche, but he just looks

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Speaker 2: like he wants to play football and like is actually trying,

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Speaker 2: and they can't run the ball, and I would expect him.

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Speaker 2: You know, he's played Aaron Donald before, he's played this

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Speaker 2: defense before. He's not going to get sucked into the

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Speaker 2: pass rush and he's not going to throw Jalen Ramsey's

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Speaker 2: way ten times a game. So there are ways around

321
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Speaker 2: the defense. I think it's the perfect time to sell.

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Speaker 2: I think the Rams team total under could be a

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Speaker 2: good look based off of who they've played so far.

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Speaker 2: To me, I thought this was a really cheap price,

325
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Speaker 2: and I don't think you're gonna a lot of spots

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Speaker 2: to bet Tampa Bay at a number like this. To

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Speaker 2: be honest, I know this sounds kind of weird. I

328
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Speaker 2: would have played Tampa Bay up to minus three plus

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Speaker 2: one hundred. And the only reason I say that is

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Speaker 2: because I don't think we were ever going to see

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Speaker 2: a three in the market, just because if you flip

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Speaker 2: that around, we're essentially applying implying that Tampa Bay would

333
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Speaker 2: be like a you know, seven, seven and a half

334
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Speaker 2: point home favorite and that's just not gonna happen. And

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Speaker 2: so this line, to me, I think there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of value on Tampa Bay good time to sell the

337
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Speaker 2: Rams defense, So I thought it was a cheap price

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Speaker 2: to play the box.

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Speaker 1: I agree with you there there at the lines moving

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Speaker 1: a little bit, there's a lot of one and a

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Speaker 1: half's now out there. But that's I'm glad you brought

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Speaker 1: that up because I was gonna ask, like, what is

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Speaker 1: the number you will play it up to? Because I

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Speaker 1: think this number is going to continue to climb incrementally.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it gets to three or anything like that,

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Speaker 1: but I do think that it's going to continue to

347
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Speaker 1: rise up. I agree with you in this one. Now,

348
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Speaker 1: Antonio Brown is probably going to be out in this game,

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Speaker 1: which takes away one of the weapons necessarily, and that

350
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Speaker 1: you know, when you have a couple of down cornerbacks

351
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Speaker 1: like the Rams have, that does make a difference because

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Speaker 1: there is like the third option is out. But I

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Speaker 1: agree with you in this game. And look last game, right,

354
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Speaker 1: like the Colt could have won that game, right, I

355
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Speaker 1: mean right, they started off right up down the field

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Speaker 1: and and didn't convert, you know, in that in that

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Speaker 1: first one, so go ahead.

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Speaker 2: I was gonna say, I believe it was two trips

359
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Speaker 2: into the red zone one rack, one was a fumble,

360
00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,160
Speaker 2: the other was a turnover on downs. And I remember

361
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Speaker 2: at that point my brother was looking at me and

362
00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:29,760
Speaker 2: he was like, hey, sorry, you didn't deserve that, you know,

363
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 2: because I had you over. But at the same time,

364
00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 2: you know, there was little resistance, and Carson Wentz didn't

365
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:38,040
Speaker 2: play that great of a game. He was he was

366
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Speaker 2: making some very very dumb mistakes. You played Andy Dalton,

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Speaker 2: and you played Carson Wentz, and now you got to

368
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Speaker 2: play a Tom Brady. This is a huge step up

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Speaker 2: in competition for a defense that I think is again

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Speaker 2: just the perfect time to sell off.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I'm agree, and I'd be surprised if Daryl

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Speaker 1: Henderson plays in this game as well. And I know

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Speaker 1: people are like, well, whatever, but Sony Michelle is not

374
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Speaker 1: a pass catcher, even though his stats last year suggested

375
00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,360
Speaker 1: he could be necessarily. But it's not the same caliber

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Speaker 1: of back coming out of that backfield, so that does

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Speaker 1: make a difference as well. I'm in agreement with you

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Speaker 1: if you can take Brady like with the way that

379
00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,080
Speaker 1: team is playing, with the way Brady is playing, there

380
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,639
Speaker 1: aren't that many. I remember last I mean, they were favorite, obviously,

381
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Speaker 1: but I remember last year when Baltimore was laying a

382
00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,199
Speaker 1: few points to Mahomes, and I remember being like, if

383
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Speaker 1: you're telling me that I'm going to catch points with

384
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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, I'm just going to accept it. I'm not

385
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Speaker 1: gonna do. And this sort of feels like to me,

386
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Speaker 1: as good as the Rams are, if you're gonna at

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00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:31,399
Speaker 1: this point, with the way he is playing and with

388
00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:33,680
Speaker 1: the way that entire team is playing, if you're gonna

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Speaker 1: give me like they're laying a point and a half

390
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,280
Speaker 1: with the with the Bucks, I'll take that day of

391
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:42,399
Speaker 1: the week. So I hate to agree with you, but

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Speaker 1: I am agreeing with you. I'm going to give myself

393
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Speaker 1: a reason to watch my team, and I'm going to

394
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,840
Speaker 1: go with the Jets and the Broncos, and I'm going

395
00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:55,360
Speaker 1: to go. I'm just checking to make sure it's still there.

396
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:59,040
Speaker 1: It was forty one and a half last time I saw,

397
00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 1: which is a low over under, and I don't care

398
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:04,280
Speaker 1: because I'm going with the under. I'm just checking to

399
00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:06,440
Speaker 1: make sure it has not moved. Give me a second,

400
00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,719
Speaker 1: is totally fine. I just checked up. But now I'm

401
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:10,159
Speaker 1: very nervous. I know it's still forty one and a

402
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,080
Speaker 1: half beautiful eighty percent by the way of our experts

403
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 1: are on the over. Don't care. Okay, I'm going with

404
00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:19,960
Speaker 1: the under. Both teams here, let's take a step back

405
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 1: of how bad the Jets are. Nobody really cares, but

406
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,679
Speaker 1: let's take a step back. Both of these teams play slow.

407
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,159
Speaker 1: That's like we can just start there. We know that

408
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,400
Speaker 1: from watching both of them. They're you know, low down

409
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 1: and pace the play and everything like that. Teddy Bridgewater

410
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 1: is general it's Teddy covers of course, but generally leans

411
00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,200
Speaker 1: towards the unders because again, doesn't he's not explosive. He

412
00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,919
Speaker 1: doesn't push the ball downfield. It's not like his teams

413
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 1: are scoring at will and in a matter of seconds.

414
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:49,560
Speaker 1: It's not like a Patrick Mahomes type of offense. These

415
00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,200
Speaker 1: are slow, methodical drives that take time off the clock.

416
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,399
Speaker 1: So the clock's gonna bleed here. You look at how

417
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,240
Speaker 1: they played so far. Forty points in Game one against

418
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Speaker 1: the Giants, and that took a last second touchdown to

419
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:03,120
Speaker 1: get there, thirty six in Game two against the Jaguars.

420
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Speaker 1: The Broncos have a very very good defense, as we

421
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Speaker 1: know generally speaking, when you go to Denver early in

422
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Speaker 1: the season, very difficult on the road team. But they,

423
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,119
Speaker 1: you know, the Broncos aren't exactly acclimated to it either.

424
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Speaker 1: So you could say, well, that's gonna hurt the defense.

425
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Speaker 1: I think that's just gonna make it for sloppy play

426
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 1: all around. My guess is when you have a quarterback

427
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 1: who throws four touchdowns, that what you're gonna say is

428
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,440
Speaker 1: let's get a little conservative here on offense and let's

429
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 1: slow it down. Let's use the run game as much

430
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 1: as we can, Let's take shorter throws, let's not push it.

431
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:38,439
Speaker 1: That's a lot of what I see. He So, I

432
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 1: think what you have is an offense that is very

433
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,879
Speaker 1: bad with the Jets. You have a defense that is

434
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:47,360
Speaker 1: very solid with the Broncos. The Broncos have a decent offense,

435
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,720
Speaker 1: not overly explosive or anything like that. Especially without Jerry Judy.

436
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 1: They'll be able to put up some points. But again,

437
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 1: this strikes me as a game like my guess is

438
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,200
Speaker 1: like this is gonna be the first game to reach halftime.

439
00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:58,919
Speaker 1: When they get there, right, it's gonna be like, oh,

440
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 1: look at that. The debts are going You're gonna have

441
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 1: other games with like six minutes left in the second quarter,

442
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 1: So I think a slow paced game where the total

443
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 1: winds up being like thirty seven, thirty eight in the end,

444
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: like whatever. So it's forty one and a half. It's

445
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 1: a low total. I get it. I'm still going with

446
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:15,920
Speaker 1: the other with the under.

447
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 2: I'm hoping for a suppressed total because admittedly I've just

448
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 2: been waiting for a spot to buy low on the

449
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:26,679
Speaker 2: Jets offense to take an over but road game in

450
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 2: altitude versus a defense that's probably gonna finish, you know,

451
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 2: top ten in the top third of you know, every

452
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 2: match of possible.

453
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,439
Speaker 1: Titans next week, Titans next week. Go go with the

454
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,440
Speaker 1: over there. That's when you got it all right.

455
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,239
Speaker 2: Oh look, the by low spot came as early as

456
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 2: week four. If we're gonna give the Jets any benefit

457
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 2: of the doubt, they've played two pretty good defenses to

458
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 2: start in Carolina and New England, and this isn't a

459
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:58,160
Speaker 2: get right spot at all again, cross country, ship and altitude.

460
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 2: The offensive line sucks. The offensive line, to not mince words,

461
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 2: is terrible. And Zach Wilson, who threw off his back foot,

462
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 2: probably more than anybody at by you last year is

463
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 2: already starting to see that pattern trickle over in the NFL.

464
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 2: So again, to me, I didn't have a play in

465
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 2: this game. The only reason I didn't have a play

466
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 2: in this game is because you can't make a total

467
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 2: end of the thirties nowadays in the NFL. You just can't.

468
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 2: And so I would have liked to grab the twelve

469
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:27,880
Speaker 2: and a half if I would have been quick enough.

470
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,440
Speaker 2: Yesterday it dropped to eleven. I missed the boat I'm at,

471
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 2: but the number to me looked right. I will be

472
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,160
Speaker 2: rooting for you. To me, I could find any reason

473
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 2: to playing over in the NFL, I love I can

474
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,200
Speaker 2: leisurely find a way to play an over. I don't

475
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 2: see any angle whatsoever. To be honest in what I

476
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:47,879
Speaker 2: usually do is I'll find an over in the afternoon slate.

477
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 2: That's so I could root for it while while watching

478
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 2: Red Zone. I don't have a single one in the

479
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 2: afternoon slate, and you couldn't. You couldn't pay me to

480
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 2: bet this over. It's it's going to be ugly, like

481
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:01,239
Speaker 2: it looks ugly on paper, gonna look even uglier on

482
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 2: the field.

483
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 1: Why I love having you as a guest because even

484
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 1: when you don't support me, you were able to talk

485
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,400
Speaker 1: enough and say enough things that I can like pull

486
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 1: out things and be like, I feel like Alex is

487
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 1: on board with this bet. I'm gonna go with it,

488
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 1: even though you're just like I wouldn't go the other way.

489
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 1: You know, go ahead, you're trying, you want to say something,

490
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 1: It's fine, Go well.

491
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 2: It's just funny because when I look at these games,

492
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 2: if I don't have a plan a game, usually as

493
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 2: the week goes on, I'm talking to myself. I talk

494
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 2: myself into a side or a total. I just I

495
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 2: really can't find an angle. I laid it with New

496
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 2: England last weekend and I tried to find every every

497
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 2: possible way to play the over and I couldn't. And again,

498
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,160
Speaker 2: I just I know, I'm kind of spit on and reiterating,

499
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 2: but I am looking for a spot to play the

500
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 2: Jets over because it's it's a very very underrated angle

501
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,919
Speaker 2: to to buy low and sell high on totals just

502
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 2: because of the lack of holatility. You're not gonna see

503
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 2: a lot of extremes for over, and you're not gonna

504
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 2: see a team like thirteen and three to the over.

505
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 2: Like this, this this trend is gonna snap. It's just

506
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 2: a matter of having the right partner for it. And

507
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 2: when you said Tennessee next week, ill I can think

508
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 2: of us. Oh my god, aj Brown, that's wild. And

509
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 2: you know how you have it the you know, the

510
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 2: the Denzel Mims breakout game that we've all done, Brax

511
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 2: and Barrios going for for ten for one hundred and

512
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 2: seven and three. It's coming, it's coming in week four.

513
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 2: But you know, I'll tell you when there's when there's

514
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 2: a game that I'm gonna go opposite with you if

515
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 2: I go if I got a bump with you, Dan,

516
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 2: But but this it just it isn't We're on the

517
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 2: same page here. Again, I can't bet the over in

518
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 2: this game. The under is the under and the dog

519
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 2: to me are the only plays in the game.

520
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. Oh, we talked about that, like whatever the spread

521
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 1: is eleven and a half or whatever, eleven and a

522
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 1: half point spread with a forty one and a half

523
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 1: point over under, it is just nuts like that. You know,

524
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 1: that's just insane. But yeah, look and again I certainly

525
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,879
Speaker 1: you know whichever way you want or anything like that.

526
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 1: I hate your next bet, whatever it is. I don't

527
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: even know what it is, but it's fine, So it's

528
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 1: totally fine. I approved your previous bets. I don't even

529
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 1: know what your third bet is yet, so we'll get

530
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,879
Speaker 1: there just in a second. I assume it's going to

531
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 1: be an over then right, because you're all right, go

532
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 1: give it to giving me a third.

533
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 2: Bet I played. I played Cleveland Chicago over forty six.

534
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 2: And my reasoning behind this was, naturally, when you when

535
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 2: you get news that a starting quarterbacks is going to

536
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 2: go out, and we've seen a lot of it this week,

537
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 2: like everybody's going down car Big Ben Fields, and we've

538
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 2: seen Carson Wentz as well, and we've seen the same

539
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: exact trend and all four games, and that's the public's

540
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,360
Speaker 2: hit the total and we've seen the total drop. However,

541
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 2: this total drop from forty six and a half to

542
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 2: forty five and a half and then there was immediate

543
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: buyback on the over to forty six, and that was

544
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 2: enough for me to make a play on it. And really, Dalton,

545
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: Dalton can move up and down the field. But when

546
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,919
Speaker 2: I bet an over, and when I'm expecting points and

547
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 2: I need points, trading and swapping out Dalton for fields

548
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 2: as big playability is a perfect trade off in my opinion.

549
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 2: So while he's raw, and you know, maybe the playbook

550
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 2: isn't as open, you're gonna have those big plays that

551
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 2: we saw at Ohio State. Like I try and envision

552
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 2: the Bears offense, I'm a Bears fan. I can't tell

553
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 2: you the last time that a receiver's just run wild

554
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 2: down the post for like an eighty yar time. It

555
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,760
Speaker 2: just doesn't happen. I think the last to do that

556
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 2: was like Johnny Knox back in two thousand and fourteen.

557
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 2: But you get a big playability against a Browns defense

558
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 2: that's been terrible against the pass. They've given up a

559
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,399
Speaker 2: bunch of splash plays against the pass. I know you

560
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 2: played Kansas City and we're in a negative game script

561
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 2: against Houston, But again, you have field here who could

562
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 2: actually make the place. If it was Dalton, you'd have

563
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 2: no problem, but now you have to actually defend all

564
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,919
Speaker 2: the quadrants of the field. Cleveland, meanwhile, I think, is

565
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 2: the best overplay in the NFL right now. They seem

566
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 2: very twenty twenty billsy in the sense that they're just

567
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: gonna score forty every game. And you never really know

568
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 2: what you're gonna do in the playoffs, but you get

569
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 2: a team that just wants to be a world beater

570
00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 2: during the regular season, and Kevin Stefansy to me, has

571
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 2: shown that. And even though they're down a bunch of

572
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 2: skilled players, like they're still running the ball at an

573
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 2: unbelievably successful rate with Chubb. There's still skill players that

574
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 2: can make plays. It's not really an offense that's predicated

575
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 2: on needing a bunch of wide receivers. And so the

576
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 2: Bears defense to me, hasn't looked all that great on paper.

577
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 2: It's like, oh, the Bears defense monsters are the midway,

578
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 2: Like they're not that good. Like I'm I'm a Bears fan, Like,

579
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 2: i don't think they're that good. They're not that intimidating,

580
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 2: you know, like in the years past. So to me,

581
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,439
Speaker 2: this dropping a point and then seeing some immediate buyback

582
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 2: on the over was pretty telling. I think this is

583
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 2: a good spot to play the over, and I'm excited

584
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 2: to do so in fields his first game.

585
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is really an interesting one for me

586
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,439
Speaker 1: because you're right, it's weird with Cleveland, right, they're just

587
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 1: down non stop playmakers, right, obviously Darbus Landers on MYRT.

588
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: There was a report today after Beckham practice fully yesterday

589
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: that he's going to be another game time decision. So

590
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 1: this is surprising to me, But it doesn't matter because

591
00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 1: that offensive system is it what it? You know, go

592
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 1: with Austin Hooper and David Joku and the running backs

593
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 1: and you've got enough to basically score at will because

594
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 1: that offensive line is great for me. I wonder though,

595
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 1: I mean what, I guess, what do you expect from

596
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 1: Field in this first game? To me? When I have

597
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,919
Speaker 1: a guy like Fields, especially with his rushing ability, I

598
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 1: think his first game is something that lends itself towards

599
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 1: an overplay because I think like they don't know how

600
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 1: to defend him number one, they don't know exactly what

601
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: they're going to see. It's really hard to build a

602
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: game plan against someone like Fields in his first game.

603
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 1: So I personally also could see the Bears putting up

604
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 1: points here. Is that? Do you like it better? Considering

605
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 1: it's his first game? Do you think that lends itself

606
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 1: to more points? Well?

607
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 2: I think the biggest takeaway here is when you watched

608
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 2: last week, like dalviin was orchestra in the offense, pretty well.

609
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 2: They were moving the ball pretty well over Cincinnati with

610
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 2: fields coming in mid game. Everything kind of slowed down

611
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 2: with him having a full week to prepare and you know,

612
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 2: you're on the road. Cleveland's defense to me is it's okay,

613
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 2: they're pieces, they can after the quarterback. But I think

614
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 2: just the recipe of what you're looking for, a Cleveland

615
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 2: defense that gives up big plays could have suppressed Andy Dalton.

616
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: But to me, this is a huge breakout game for

617
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 2: Chicago skill players. Like we talk, I mean, I'm sure

618
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 2: you hear all the time too. Being so tucked in

619
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 2: with fantasy, you know, guys like Darnel Mooney and Alan

620
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 2: Robinson being as underrated as he is, Like you're just

621
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 2: waiting for these guys to pop off and taking a

622
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 2: closer look at Chicago. Like Dalton used to push the

623
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 2: ball when he was with the Cincinnati he had no choice,

624
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 2: Like he he would throw the ball recklessly in Cincinnati.

625
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 2: Ever since last year, I don't know why, he just

626
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 2: hasn't pushed the ball down the field. He hasn't been

627
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: a good over bet. He doesn't apt, but he's not

628
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,239
Speaker 2: enticing to bet over the total as he once was.

629
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 2: To me, I was just really excited to bet a

630
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 2: change of pace, a quarterback who could really push the

631
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 2: ball down field, and who wants to push the ball offield.

632
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 2: He has some skill players to make the plays. I

633
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 2: guess a pretty subpard defense. So down to forty five

634
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 2: and a half up the tick up to forty six.

635
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 2: I thought it was pretty dead, a pretty dead number.

636
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 2: So I went over the total and you know, it

637
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 2: probably isn't the biggest edge that I have, but it

638
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 2: was more so I wanted to play the number. I

639
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 2: thought the market liked the over at forty six, and

640
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 2: just you know, it's just a rooting for a fresh

641
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 2: change of pace with fields undersetterer.

642
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 1: To be honest, that's fun. I don't hate it whatsoever.

643
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: I would pretend that I did, but I can't. You're

644
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: a decent fellow. But here's what I want to talk

645
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 1: about is my final bet, which another one that number one.

646
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 1: I feel like the books are begging me to take

647
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 1: because they want me to take it. They think it's

648
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: the wrong side. And I don't hear anybody who I

649
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 1: trust in the betting landscape taking this game. And I

650
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 1: need you to explain why to me, so we will

651
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 1: get there. And that is the Titans at home laying

652
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 1: five to the Colts. There is only two reasons I

653
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 1: can see that you might be scared off of this

654
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 1: game if you want to bet the Titans. The first

655
00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: is that the Colts are just like the most esperate

656
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: team that you could possibly have. Right now, right they're

657
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: on and two they lose again here to the Titans.

658
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: By the way, you can hear in the back that

659
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 1: is my garage door opening. That happens once every podcast

660
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 1: because I podcast in the room above my garage door.

661
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: Don't worry about it. Number one, that they're desperate, their

662
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 1: season is on the line. They lose this game, they

663
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 1: fall to zer three, they've lost to the Titans. That's

664
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 1: a really, really bad thing. Number two, it's a division game.

665
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: A division game is always unpredictable. You never know how

666
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 1: it's going to go. It may stay as close as possible,

667
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 1: so you might not want to go after it. That's fine.

668
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 1: But for me, dude like Carson Wentz, I could be wrong.

669
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 1: I don't expect Carson Wentz to play this game. I mean,

670
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 1: at this point right he's in practice today. He's got

671
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 1: two ankle sprains. One of them is a high ankle spring.

672
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 1: He's a tough dude. He tries to play through, but

673
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: there's just no way I see this happening, which means

674
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 1: it's probably going to be Jacob Easton and Hunley because

675
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: they're splitting snaps. Are you going to go with both

676
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: of them in this game? Is that what the game

677
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: plan is? The Cults are an okay team. Okay, they're

678
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: not great. Even with Wentz, they're an okay team. They've

679
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: allowed four point three yards per carry to opposing running

680
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 1: backs Chris Carson and Darryl Henderson. That is fine, but

681
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: the Titans run defense obviously locked up Chris Carson in

682
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: this last game, even though he scored two touchdown. The

683
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: Colts pass defense has not been good. Xavier Roads has

684
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 1: not played yet. I don't think he's going to play

685
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 1: in this game. You misspracticed yesterday. They've allowed two hundred

686
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 1: and fifty five point five passing yards per game. Again,

687
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 1: Rams and Seahawks, so two good passing offenses. But the

688
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 1: thing is you attack. If you're the Colt you can

689
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: attack Titans more through the air than on the ground.

690
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 1: Their secondary not great. Genoris Jenkins, Christian Fulton, Chris Jackson,

691
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 1: but we talked about the Colts pass catchers, and they're

692
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 1: not that impressive. I mean, I like Michael Pittman junior.

693
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: You know, Zach Pascal's fine, but you're not going to

694
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 1: be able to attack them through the air with Jacobson

695
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: and Hunley like you're just not I don't understand why

696
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: this spread isn't moving, And this seems like the books

697
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 1: just desperately want me because if anything, it's gone down.

698
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: It was five and a half on Monday. It's five

699
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: right now, the consensus line that I'm looking at. So

700
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: perhaps you can explain to me why I'm totally misreading

701
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 1: this game and why should I have any faith that

702
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 1: either Eastern or Hunley is going to be able to

703
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 1: put up any points?

704
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I really can't. Although Indianapolis to me looks like

705
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 2: and you could look at the the win loss record

706
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 2: as it is, but I don't think there's a team

707
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: that's been more disappointing than Indianapolis. It just even with

708
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 2: Wentz healthy last weekend, like there were parts, like you said,

709
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 2: they almost won the game, but it just didn't look

710
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 2: very fluid, and there were just times when he was

711
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 2: running for his life and you know, not having t

712
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 2: y Hilton there, like you said, Michael Pittman becomes your

713
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 2: number one receiver. Love Michael Pittman. He was fantastic at USC,

714
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 2: but you know, he's just he. I don't think he's

715
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 2: ready to be the number one wide receiver. And this

716
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 2: is still a road game, the first, their first road

717
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 2: game playing outdoors all year, so there's that. Honestly, I

718
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 2: was gonna play the over in this game earlier in

719
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 2: the week, didn't and then all of a sudden saw

720
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 2: it crater and didn't know why. Come to find out

721
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 2: that Wentz not only sprained one of his ankles, but

722
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 2: both of them. Like, I don't know how the guy's

723
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 2: walking right now, let alone game planning. So I'm not

724
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 2: really sure why there's no resistance. You know, teams that

725
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 2: are zero to two against the spread dating back to

726
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 2: like the last eleven years are covering it like a

727
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 2: sixty two percent clip in week three. So you know,

728
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 2: if you want to play the trend's game, that's fine, but.

729
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 1: I would with Wentz. I'm not kidding if Wentz were healthy.

730
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 1: That trend is meaningful to me, because I mean, I

731
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: do see I have seen that trend, and I think

732
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: so too. It's just like it's like and perhaps the

733
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 1: spread at five, and it probably is. I think maybe

734
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 1: baked in the uncertainty with Wentz when I when I

735
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 1: looked at it on Monday, because we knew he was

736
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 1: potentially hurt. But I don't know, man, I expected this

737
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: to move and we talked about it on Monday. We

738
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 1: do a look ahead, you know, on the lines, and

739
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: Andrew Cayley and I both said, like, I would expect

740
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 1: this to move towards six six and a half, assuming

741
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 1: that it's going to be Jacob eeson, and it just

742
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 1: hasn't moved. So it feels like they just want me

743
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 1: to take this number and I can't. I've really figured out.

744
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, could be a good spot to to fade the

745
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 2: Colts offense just in general. I know Tennessee's been awful,

746
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 2: but because of the shootouts that they've played the last

747
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 2: two weeks, you're gonna start to see some numbers pop

748
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 2: up on their opponent's team total overs that just make

749
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,399
Speaker 2: no sense. And if you know, if you're Jacob E's

750
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:22,399
Speaker 2: in running the show without tuy Hilton and at receiving corpse,

751
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 2: I don't care if it's Tennessee, you know, You're not

752
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 2: gonna put up twenty four points. You're not. You known

753
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: anything twenty one and a half or better might be good.

754
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: So it doesn't make any sense to me. Usually you

755
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 2: can there's some writing on the wall. You can read

756
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 2: the tea leaves to the injury report. Throughout the weeks.

757
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 2: To me, went spraining both of his ankles, like just

758
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 2: to me, sounded painful. It's just it's just he's not

759
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 2: gonna play, like I mean, he's got and one of

760
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:47,280
Speaker 2: them is a high ankle spring.

761
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 1: The high ankle springs are like four to six weeks

762
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 1: and they're like he's out for all intenda if he plays,

763
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 1: by the way, if he plays at this point, I

764
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 1: don't know how great I feel about it anyway, because

765
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 1: like you said, like it's he's not gonna be able

766
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 1: to move, and part of it is his mobility, Like

767
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 1: that's part of what makes him a decent NFL quarterback.

768
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 1: But he's going to be just a statue back there

769
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 1: that that's not gonna be good for them anyway.

770
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 2: He was running for his life last week. Yeah, you know,

771
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 2: it would be very it would be very Titansy to

772
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 2: lose Week one, go on the road, week to beat Seattle,

773
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:19,359
Speaker 2: then come back and just lay an egg at home.

774
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 1: Very true, very true, very true, very true. Well, like

775
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 1: I said, I if wins were healthy, it would be

776
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 1: something where I would just be like, just the feel

777
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 1: of the game doesn't feel right, letdown game after that

778
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:33,320
Speaker 1: big win, like you know, and again we talked about

779
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: like the Colts could be easily won that game last

780
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 1: week against the Rams if a couple of things had

781
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: broken right. So it's not as if they're a terrible team,

782
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 1: but there will coach everything like that. But again, this

783
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 1: is something where part of me just feels like I

784
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: don't know whether or not the models that the books

785
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 1: he is always properly take into account the downgrade in

786
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 1: quarterbacks that come. Sometimes I do. Sometimes you see massive moves,

787
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: but a lot of times it's very much like, oh,

788
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: this is worth two points. But for me, I guess

789
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 1: they must have been factoring it in from the start

790
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: and the fact that it hasn't moved and it doesn't

791
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 1: look like it's overly I mean, sixty four percent of

792
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,320
Speaker 1: our experts are taking the Titans, but it's not overwhelming

793
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 1: or anything like that, So I get it. It's this

794
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,399
Speaker 1: weird sort of five number right, five, five and a half.

795
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:15,879
Speaker 1: You don't really know what to do with that number,

796
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 1: but so.

797
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 2: Dead number more likely trending towards six than it would

798
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 2: to fall to four a full point a half. And

799
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 2: even if Wentz does play it, like you said, one

800
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:30,279
Speaker 2: high ankle sprained in another bad ankle against you know,

801
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 2: even against the defense that can't cover anybody. You know,

802
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 2: he has to make plays with his legs. A lot

803
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 2: of his is making play with plays with his legs.

804
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,399
Speaker 2: So huge step down in competition for the Titans at home,

805
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 2: good chance to go to it. Honestly, if you're the Titans,

806
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 2: you're two and one after what's transpired the last couple

807
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 2: of weeks, you'd take that.

808
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. And again I've sort of been vocal about the

809
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 1: fact that I think a lot of the Titans issues,

810
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: at least early on. In that first game against Arizona

811
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 1: was a lot of because they didn't get to practice

812
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 1: at all with COVID. And even in the second game,

813
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 1: AJ Brown had won the worst games I've ever seen

814
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: them play. You know, they could have, you know, put

815
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,359
Speaker 1: up more points, certainly against Seattle in that game. So

816
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:08,720
Speaker 1: their defense is not great, their secondary is not great.

817
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: But it really hasn't been great for a couple of years,

818
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: and they still managed to put it up. So I

819
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:14,879
Speaker 1: do think the Titans win here, and I do think

820
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 1: that they cover the spread. So let's very briefly before

821
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 1: we get to the rest of the spreads and just

822
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 1: run through them and see if you like any of

823
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 1: them at all or have any value. Let's briefly recap.

824
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 1: I'll do it again at the end. You like Arizona

825
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 1: and Jacksonville to go over fifty two, the Bucks to

826
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 1: cover the one point spread against the Rams, and the

827
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 1: Browns and the Bears to go over their total of

828
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 1: forty six. I am taking the Eagles getting three and

829
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 1: a half from the Cowboys, the Jets and the Broncos

830
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,839
Speaker 1: to stay under forty one and a half, and the

831
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: Titans laying five to the Cults. I really, really am

832
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:52,840
Speaker 1: excited about the prospect of rooting for the Jets for finally,

833
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 1: since I'm a Jets fan, to not score points and

834
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 1: for them to like rip off like you know, three

835
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 1: touchdowns or something like that, back to back. That'll be

836
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 1: a good show. Then on Monday, I'm all right, let's

837
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 1: run through some of the remaining spreads. Just let me

838
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 1: know what if you have any thoughts on it. The

839
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: Washington football team visiting the Bills, the Bills laying seven

840
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 1: and a.

841
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:16,720
Speaker 2: Half points, I bet over forty five and a half. Again,

842
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 2: just another Bilo spot on Buffalo. I don't think Washington's

843
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 2: defense is as good as it was last year behind

844
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 2: a pretty fraudulent schedule, and we've already kind of seen

845
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 2: some chinks in the armor to start. So I think

846
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 2: Buffalo if Josh Allen hopefully sees more man covers this

847
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 2: week and lights him up. Taylor Heinekey to me, you know,

848
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 2: I covered the Conference USA a couple of years ago,

849
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 2: and you know I could firmly say as a big

850
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,879
Speaker 2: Taylor Heinikee fan out of ODU, you know I must

851
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 2: have beten countless ODU overs back in college, just waking

852
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 2: up on Saturday mornings and trying to lock in bets,

853
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 2: you know, betting over seventy and a half against Marshall

854
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 2: every week. But I bet over forty five and a

855
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:02,879
Speaker 2: half non conference game. Both defenses to me, I think

856
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 2: can be exploited through the year. I went over forty

857
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 2: five and a half. A terrible bet, but I bet it.

858
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 1: Matt, you always want to hear that from somebody who's

859
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: giving betting bets a terrible bet, terrible I'm doing it anyway.

860
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 1: All right, let's set these Steelers at home laying three

861
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 1: to the Bengals. Total is forty four.

862
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 2: I thought the total was a little low, but again,

863
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,359
Speaker 2: Roethlisberger's pack injury kind of kept me off of it.

864
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 2: Waiting for a spot to bet Pittsburgh's over, But don't

865
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 2: think this is going to be the week for it.

866
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 1: You talked about the total in this game, but what

867
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 1: do you think about the Cardinals laying seven and a

868
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 1: half in Jacksonville to the Jaguars.

869
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 2: I would have grabbed seven. I just didn't really have

870
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 2: any interest in laying two scores on the road, just

871
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 2: because with my luck, the cross country trip against the

872
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:47,800
Speaker 2: worst team in the league will prove to be the

873
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 2: kryptonite for Cliff Kingsbury.

874
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 1: How about the Ravens visiting the Lions. The Ravens are

875
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 1: laying eight. The total is fifty.

876
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I took over fifty. It's a sucker bet. But

877
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 2: Detroit can't stop anybody. Baltimore looks formidable in both facets

878
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 2: of the game. I know Lamar kind of came up

879
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,760
Speaker 2: a little bruised after that that hip.

880
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 1: Yep, yeah it did in practice. Yeah, if you flip

881
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: into the end zone and you bruise your hip, oh yeah,

882
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 1: that doesn't go over well. So I'm sure he'll he'll play.

883
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, And honestly, Baltimore's there. The secondaries looks really spotty,

884
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 2: to be honest with you. Just a lot of bodies,

885
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 2: a lot of key bodies down and you know Jered

886
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 2: Goff jerreed golf. But you know he's throwing the ball

887
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 2: and if they can't get after if they can't get

888
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 2: after him, and you know he could he could slice apart.

889
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:34,880
Speaker 2: We saw him, Yeah, make some big plays against San Francisco.

890
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 2: I went over fifty, all right.

891
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 1: This was one, I'll be honest, it was. It was

892
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 1: on the cutting room floor, but it made one of

893
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,800
Speaker 1: my final thoughts. Here. The Falcons are visiting the Giants.

894
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,359
Speaker 1: The Falcons are getting three. The total is forty seven

895
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 1: and a half. I leaned towards the Falcons getting three

896
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 1: in this game. Ultimately I didn't pick it.

897
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 2: What do you think I did? I took the Falcons

898
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 2: plus three. That was the second or third bet that

899
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 2: I made this week. Just didn't agree with it. It

900
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:04,879
Speaker 2: Giants minus one yep, didn't fit. That's pretty much it.

901
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 2: I don't think the Giants have done anything to warrant

902
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: being three point favorites and landed. To me, if they're

903
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 2: serious about the season, this is kind of their last

904
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 2: gasp too, and no real better way to do it

905
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 2: than against you know, a team that can't really break

906
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 2: off explosive plays, played a dual threat quarterback in Tom Brady,

907
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 2: and I need to play Daniel Jones and a bunch

908
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 2: of wide receivers that can't get separations. So you know,

909
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:25,240
Speaker 2: I think this is a good spot.

910
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,799
Speaker 1: How about the Chargers visiting the Chiefs. Chiefs are laying

911
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 1: six and a half. The total is fifty four and

912
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 1: a half. There's some fifty five's out there as well.

913
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 2: I will never bet at the Los Angeles Chargers game

914
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:36,799
Speaker 2: for the rest of my life that no team, no

915
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 2: team in the NFL, goes out of their way to

916
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 2: make my life a living hell more than the Los

917
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 2: Angeles Charger.

918
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 1: I bet.

919
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 2: I bet the Chargers in the over last week. They

920
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,399
Speaker 2: didn't punt and they didn't go over or cover. So

921
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,800
Speaker 2: I have completely written off the Chargers.

922
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, how about like, we're not talking about

923
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 1: the over under on this one because you mentioned it before.

924
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,439
Speaker 1: But the Browns are laying seven to the Bears. Any

925
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 1: value there, Yeah, it looked right. No real interest in

926
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 1: the spread, but I do think the total is a

927
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 1: good look all right? How about the Saints laying no

928
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, the Patriots laying three to the Saints and

929
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 1: the total is forty two.

930
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 2: Both numbers to me looked right, and God, both teams

931
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 2: are just so polar opposite from to you know, if

932
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 2: this game is played two years ago, the total is

933
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 2: probably what fifty two? Just too big, too many unknowns,

934
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 2: too too big of an adjustment to really have an

935
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:29,840
Speaker 2: edge there. So I passed as that.

936
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 1: I the Raiders are home laying four and a half

937
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 1: to the Dolphins with the total forty four, no two

938
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 1: in this game, what do you think?

939
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 2: I really wanted to lay to lay the chalk with

940
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:41,839
Speaker 2: the Raiders, but they're a team that I could see

941
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 2: throwing up a dut after that after two big wins.

942
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 2: Didn't really have any interest. I thought the over could

943
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 2: have been a good play at forty four and a half,

944
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,879
Speaker 2: but many too many injuries under center to know how

945
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 2: that game script's gonna go.

946
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,720
Speaker 1: Yep, stay away from me as well. Actually, the Seahawks

947
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 1: visiting the Vikings. The Seahawks are one and a half

948
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 1: point favorite and the total is fifty five and a half.

949
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:06,439
Speaker 2: I don't I'm not gonna play it, but I would

950
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 2: have played under if I did. Just didn't seem like

951
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 2: the right number. I know that Minnesota got into a

952
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 2: shootout last last weekend and the week before that, but

953
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 2: to me, I didn't. I made it fifty three and

954
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 2: a half and just just seems like an underplay to me,

955
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:22,240
Speaker 2: to be honest.

956
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 1: Packer's visiting the forty nine ers. It's now at three

957
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: and the over under is fifty. It wasn't four at

958
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,760
Speaker 1: one point, and I took it at four. I'm wondering

959
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 1: what you think of it right now at three.

960
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 2: No real opinion on the spread, just the two really

961
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 2: good teams, and I can't really get a pulse on

962
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 2: Green Bay. It's just two polar opposite results. I want

963
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,359
Speaker 2: to say that the team's back and that week one

964
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 2: was just an outlier, but I really don't know. Because

965
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 2: I love San Francisco and was extremely high on San

966
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 2: Francisco coming into the year, so laying off the spread,

967
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 2: but I do like I think that there's gonna be

968
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 2: points in the game. I think the over is a

969
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 2: good play, all right.

970
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if we touched on the over under

971
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys Eagles, but it's fifty two. Do you

972
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:00,439
Speaker 1: have an opinion that.

973
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 2: I would have taken anything at fifty two or better

974
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:07,120
Speaker 2: again the Cowboys. To me, baseline, you have to start

975
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 2: at fifty two and playing the Eagles, you know, we

976
00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 2: saw fifty one and a half. I thought it should

977
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:14,479
Speaker 2: have been fifty two and a half or fifty three. Again,

978
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 2: it didn't force a punt. Last week to me, has

979
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 2: two consecutives really really bad games for the defense, and

980
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 2: I don't think dan Quinn has figured it out. I

981
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 2: think playing against a dual threat quarterback with maybe one

982
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 2: of the fastest receiving corps in the entire league is

983
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:30,400
Speaker 2: going to be a tough game plan for that defense,

984
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 2: and I think there's just gonna be big plays everywhere.

985
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,320
Speaker 2: So I think over fifty two is a really good play.

986
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 1: Awesome, let's recap very quickly once again. You are taking

987
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and the Jaguars over fifty two, the Bucks

988
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 1: laying one to the Rams and the Browns and the

989
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: Bears to go over forty six. I really I am

990
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 1: in line with all three of those plays. Unfortunately for me,

991
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Eagles getting three and a half from

992
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, the Jets and the Broncos under forty one

993
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 1: and a half, and the Titans laying five to the

994
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 1: You know, last last week, Alex, like, I felt like

995
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 1: there were a lot of very clear bounce back spots

996
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 1: like the Vikings.

997
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:08,800
Speaker 2: The Vikings to me when you were rattling off your wins,

998
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 2: I'm like, this guy, this guy wasn't gonna get bit

999
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 2: by the overreaction bug.

1000
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 1: He's not good. I felt like there was a lot

1001
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:17,320
Speaker 1: of that. After week one, I completely understood it. I

1002
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 1: felt like Week two is like your Week two is

1003
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 1: my favorite week to bet, Like it really is, because

1004
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 1: I feel like it's just constant, constant overreaction, Like the Vikings.

1005
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 1: It was disgusting. I felt gross doing it, but I

1006
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 1: was like, this is obviously a game that I have

1007
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:31,399
Speaker 1: to run and take. I don't feel that great right

1008
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 1: now about this one, but it's still It's it's enough

1009
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:37,239
Speaker 1: there where I'm gonna enjoy it. This is great talk

1010
00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 1: to you. We haven't talked obviously last year was all

1011
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: weird with the way you know football. Was glad to

1012
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 1: have you back on can't wait to do it again.

1013
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 1: Remind everybody where they could find you and your work.

1014
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks so much, Dan. I'm on Twitter at aj

1015
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 2: K O L O, d Z I E J.

1016
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 1: And now and now that right now, the pronunciation you did.

1017
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 2: You know what, I will admit to the uh to

1018
00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 2: the listeners, you absolutely nailed the last name in the

1019
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 2: pre show that I was like, unbelieve this guy's been practicing.

1020
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 1: I try, I do. I will be honest that I

1021
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:11,840
Speaker 1: try to practice pronouncing your name once a day for

1022
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:14,359
Speaker 1: the last four hundred and thirty four days. So I'm

1023
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 1: glad that it right and it worked. It worked well,

1024
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:19,240
Speaker 1: So that's great. All right, everybody. I hope you guys

1025
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 1: have a great weekend of gambling. We'll be back as

1026
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 1: we always are here on Monday, taking an early look

1027
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 1: at the lines for week four. I'll talk to you

1028
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:46,919
Speaker 1: them