1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: The volume. Okay, we uh many like to call this 2 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,959 Speaker 1: the best weekend of the year. Uh, you never truly know, 3 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:23,919 Speaker 1: because I thought last weekend was pretty sweet and it 4 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 1: turned out to not be great. But if you love football, 5 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: it still wasn't that terrible, especially if you like to gamble. 6 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: And we got my guys Stucky, who you can hear 7 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,480 Speaker 1: every week on Thursday's Action Network podcast also hosts Big 8 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 1: Bets on Campus. Monday Wasday Friday. Um, a lot of 9 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: betting material coming from Stucky, but uh, I'm sure as 10 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: as a longtime gambler, you know, we only have so 11 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:47,279 Speaker 1: many games left here. Stucky. I know you're a big 12 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: college basketball guy, but there's nothing like betting on football. 13 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 1: And if to my count, we got four this week 14 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,639 Speaker 1: to next week and the Super Bowl, that's seven football 15 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: games left to gamble on until the fall, unless you're 16 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 1: sicking ahead and bet on the Pro Bowl, which I 17 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: did not. Definitely. Okay, well, uh well, let's just start 18 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 1: Saturday afternoon and work our way through Sunday night. Um. 19 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: You know, I would say the Bengals probably the better 20 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: story of the year. Uh, we clearly have. You know, 21 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 1: it's always cool when you get a quarterback, not like 22 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,679 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow wasn't you know, famous before, but established himself 23 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: as a star. And the Titans have just had one 24 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 1: of the more miraculous seasons because I think the casual 25 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: guy guy thinks they kind of sucked. But you they've 26 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 1: beat everybody and they got the big guy coming back, 27 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: you know, their favorite at home. Minus three and a half. 28 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 1: I would have to take the Titans minus three and 29 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: a half. It's crazy. I was telling someone the other day, like, 30 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: I don't remember. I mean, they haven't hosted a playoff 31 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: game in a long time. I mean it brings me 32 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: back to my youth of some of those McNair Eddie 33 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: George games at Tennessee, which which is kind of cool. Cincinnati. 34 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: I gotta stat for you here, Stucky never won a 35 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: road playoff game and history of the franchise UM, So 36 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: I like the Titans here minus three and a half. 37 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,559 Speaker 1: How about you? Yeah, I don't have a strong take. 38 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 1: I think the Titans actually hosted the last year the 39 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 1: Ravens won in Tennessee. Good call the UM, but yeah, 40 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 1: it's it's not been a regular occurrence. They won the 41 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,639 Speaker 1: division last year. Huh. Yeah, I think the Ravens, I 42 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: was an ugly one. Again. I think Titans fans would 43 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: be like getting no respect. No, no one even acknowledges 44 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: they were hosting playoff games twelve months ago. Yeah, I 45 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: will say that we we this time of year. We 46 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: put out a prop one prop of per episode um 47 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: and I did bet Jeff Swain over eleven and a 48 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 1: half proceeding yards. I think it's a really good bet 49 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: against the Bengals, who cannot cover tight ends. For what 50 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: it's worth. But in regards to this game, you know, 51 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: I would lean to the Titans. They're just a hard 52 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 1: team for me to handicapped in power, right because they 53 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: played so many games without so many of their key players, right, 54 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: And you know, so you're gonna get Dereck Kenny back. 55 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: Do you get a full Errick Henry Um? If you 56 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: do and everyone else is healthy, then the play action 57 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:07,079 Speaker 1: comes back. It's also a good matchup for the Tennessee defense. 58 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: Their defensive line has been surprisingly much better than expect 59 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: this year to can generate pressure. They don't blitz, right, 60 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: and that's that's and they don't play you know, it's 61 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: not of just straight man, that's really what you have 62 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: to do. Against Barrow. By the way, last week, we 63 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 1: we pretty much nailed every game except that Raiders game. 64 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 1: We should have covered. They matched up, they do similar 65 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 1: things defensively, don't blitz and you know that's kind of 66 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: what you have to do against Baraw that with the Raiders, 67 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,239 Speaker 1: just that Baul doesn't go off the helmet of the 68 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: Bengals player Waller walks in. But uh yeah, so I 69 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 1: will say that, you know, you have a this this 70 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: weekend in general has been for the underdogs for what 71 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: it's worth. But you have a Mike very Well who 72 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: was turning into I think one of the most underrated 73 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 1: coaches in the NFL. When he has nine or more 74 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: days to prepare, so that's after a Thursday game or 75 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 1: after a bye, he's eight no straight up, eight no 76 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: against the spread, covering by an average margin of eighteen 77 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: points per game. Average score in those games thirty to ten. 78 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: So with extra preparation he's been spectacular. Uh So, yeah, 79 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: I think that this is it's a pretty good matchup 80 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 1: for Tennessee, especially if you're getting full Derrick Henry back 81 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,039 Speaker 1: in the mix. You have some injuries on the defensive line. First, 82 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 1: since he as well, I could see them. You know 83 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: that I could see them being up ten and then 84 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:26,919 Speaker 1: you know you have barrow go down the field and 85 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 1: get a back door. Be like a concern here. This 86 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 1: line opened at two and a half. Took immediate money 87 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,919 Speaker 1: on Tennessee through the three up to three and a half. 88 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 1: Don't have a strong feel I would. I guess I 89 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: would take Tennessee if anyone the right side was Tennessee 90 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 1: minus two and a half. Um, but this is a 91 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 1: game I don't have the strongest take on. But you're right. 92 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 1: Tennessee the one seed in the a f C. They 93 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 1: beat the Bills, they beat the Cheese and if you 94 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 1: look at their numbers when they had their full arsenal 95 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 1: of offensive weapons, their offense has been elite just because 96 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 1: that play action game is so dangerous, a lot of 97 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,160 Speaker 1: inbreaking routes that it's that weak middle of the Cincinnati secondary. 98 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: So I don't hate your side there be beat the Rams, 99 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: beat the Niners. Now, I mean you're right there. They 100 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: play up, they play up and down to everybody that's 101 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: kind of their their emma. So what does that? I mean, 102 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 1: it's the playoffs, so um, but yeah, they're they're They're 103 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 1: a team with a lot of potential. One thing that 104 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: would concern me with the Titans. I think if we 105 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,920 Speaker 1: rank the quarterbacks, uh, and as you know, the playoffs go, 106 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 1: the quarterback play is just so key, I think Tannyhill 107 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: would be lashed. Yeah, I mean, I mean Jimmy coaster, 108 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: but I trust Jimmy Moore just in a big spot. 109 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,479 Speaker 1: But you're right, I mean Tanny Hill statistically has had 110 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 1: you know, there there are ways to defend him and 111 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: argue his side. Yep. Yeah, I mean, especially it's all 112 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,840 Speaker 1: comes down to Henry. Like if you have Henry cooking 113 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 1: in the outdoors and the playoffs like and then everyone 114 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: is stacking the box and then you have Jones and 115 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: Brown healthy on the outside, that play action, even the 116 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 1: tight ends um is just it's very hard to stop. Well, 117 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 1: they're one of their out there totals between forty seven 118 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: and fifty six, which is where all the totals are 119 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: this week in outdoor games in this round thirty seven 120 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: twenty and two since two thousand three are overs, unders, 121 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: unders outdoor under round. Yeah you uh, I think you 122 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 1: gave me a little tip on the unders last week 123 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,600 Speaker 1: on the outdoor unders in the wild card round, and 124 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: you know it was a little nervous in that Bengal 125 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: Raider game, but it did hit. Okay, let's go. Uh 126 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: this game is just you know, I'm a little close 127 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:32,160 Speaker 1: to the sun here, so I wavered a little bit 128 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: on the Niners. But you kept convincing me all season long, 129 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 1: and look the dust settles. They're one of the last 130 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,359 Speaker 1: four NFC team standing. I went back a couple of 131 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: days ago and watched the Packer Niner game from Week three. 132 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: It actually was obviously the final score was much close, 133 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 1: was you know, thirty to twenty eight, but there was 134 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 1: a point in time when were seventeen nothing. But it 135 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: was actually pretty tightly contested game. The Niners they're starting 136 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 1: running back. The game was Trey Sermon. They were missing 137 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 1: Elijah Mitchell. Obviously they are a running football team. Uh. 138 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,840 Speaker 1: You know, historically they've beat Rogers. Now, Shanahan beat him 139 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 1: two years ago, Hard Bob beat the Packers a couple 140 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 1: of times. The Niners have just over the years matched 141 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: up well in these big spots with the Packers because 142 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: they've just been more physical and tougher. Uh Now, I 143 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: do think that's probably the best version of Rodgers. But 144 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,119 Speaker 1: the weather, you know, it's gonna be zero degrees or whatever, 145 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: which you know neutralizes one of the greatest players we've 146 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: ever seen a little, right, he can't just you know, 147 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 1: he he sliced and dice the Niners in late September 148 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: because it was beautiful weather. It's a little more difficult 149 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: come the playoffs. Uh, I'm taking the Niners here plus six. 150 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 1: I actually, you know, I'm gonna sprinkle some on the 151 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: money line. I think it has potential for upset. Uh. Now, 152 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: I'm also a believer in the Packers. I've just you know, 153 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 1: there live a couple of weeks ago. I watched the 154 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: way the Niners showed up last week rated to kick 155 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: the ship out of the Cowboys. I would say the 156 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: thing that concerns me the most, stucky is the enormous 157 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: advantage you get, you know, on the by now, you know, 158 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: especially this week, the Niners are on a short week 159 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 1: on that Saturday night. Now, they've played basically three of 160 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: their last four games have been playoff games, and the Titans, 161 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 1: the Rams, and last week the Cowboys have all been 162 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: on the road. So the Niners have been traveling a 163 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: lot and just playing in just you know, heavyweight matchups. 164 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 1: So you know, I guess if I was going to 165 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 1: counter myself, would be like they might just run out 166 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: of gas. Uh what say you here? Yeah, for what 167 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 1: it's worth, favorites in the divisional round after a buy 168 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 1: one against the spread since two thousand three, it's not 169 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: like they've been kind of forty two and a half percent. 170 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:37,680 Speaker 1: So then why do you why do you think that 171 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: is just the pressure you just kind of you know, 172 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 1: you lose momentum. Yeah, I mean some of it I 173 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 1: think might be a little rust. Uh. Some of it 174 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: I think is you know, you have a lot of 175 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: these teams, like the forty niners that you know, have 176 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 1: been in playoff mode like for the last couple of weeks. 177 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 1: Sometimes you have these teams that have been off a 178 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: couple of weeks, like they haven't had a really win games. 179 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: I also think the market, you might just speak to 180 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: the market over value value by um because the Packers 181 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 1: basically had a bye week week that game didn't matter. Yeah, 182 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: so you know, and it happened to the Packers in 183 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: eleven they were like fifteen and one, I think, and 184 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: then how they sat everyone then had to buy. Then 185 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 1: they lost to ELI at home in the divisional round. 186 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean I would, I would look at 187 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: the forty niners here plus six. There's a couple of things. 188 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:24,599 Speaker 1: And by the way, this is when you want to 189 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: you want to pack Shanahan, you want to back him 190 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: on the road and has a dog And and Jimmy G, 191 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: for what it's worth, is now fourteen and four against 192 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 1: the spread as an underdog, covering by nine points per game, 193 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 1: thirteen and five straight up. But I mean you do 194 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 1: have to go against Rogers. Rodgers is just a ridiculous 195 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 1: sixty nine thirty seven and four against the spread at home. 196 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 1: Could you could you repeat those Jimmy G stats. He's 197 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 1: fourteen and four against the spread as an underdog seventy 198 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: eight percent, covering by nine points per game on average, 199 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 1: and he's thirteen and five straight up as a dog 200 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 1: and looting last week and that includes the playoffs. So yeah, 201 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 1: I mean, the only things that the things that really 202 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: concern me. I mean the four I was gonna come 203 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: out in there, and they were a different team back 204 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: then too. I mean you mentioned Mitchell wasn't playing. They 205 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: didn't really assimilate Debot into the running game yet, which 206 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 1: has just been almost unstoppable. The defense also is playing 207 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 1: at a completely different level. They made some changes along 208 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 1: the defensive line, they had some key under the radar auditions, 209 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 1: and the secondary is just a much better shape than 210 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:29,559 Speaker 1: what I mean. They had a couple of guys get 211 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: hurt then, uh so during the game. So they're gonna 212 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: come out and they're just gonna they're gonna run it. 213 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: They're gonna try to run it down Green Bayed darting 214 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 1: Green Bay thirty in success rate this year against the run. 215 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: That is their weakness. I think that San fran Is 216 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:45,559 Speaker 1: gonna treat this game sort of like the NFC Championship 217 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 1: game back in twenty nineteen when they won thirty seven 218 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: to twenty and Jimmy g at six of eight for 219 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: seventy seven yards. I mean, you didn't have to do anything. 220 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: And I think they ran at forty three times savage 221 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: seven and anf yards per carry. That was Yeah, that 222 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 1: was just just that This Packer team, this Packer team 223 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: is much better than this version, much better. So the 224 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,319 Speaker 1: only two things I concern me here is I do 225 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 1: think you need Nick Bosa so and he's trending towards 226 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 1: playing um so, he's just he's so important that defense line, 227 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 1: and then without him, obviously you lose one of the 228 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 1: best players defensive players in the NFL. But then just 229 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:22,599 Speaker 1: the shift of where everyone has to go, like you 230 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: gotta you gotta bring Key back outside, like everyone that 231 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: defensive line is playing so well right now and everyone 232 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 1: has their roles, and then obviously your depth is hurt. 233 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 1: But just losing him would be massive against Rogers. But 234 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: so he's trending towards playing, I think, And I don't 235 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: know if it's sort of like COVID with a concussion 236 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: in the playoffs, where it's just like you can you 237 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: account to three, you're good to go. But I think 238 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 1: that if easy to close, he's gonna play. And the 239 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 1: only other issue is, okay, Jimmy G's thumb and now 240 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 1: shoulder in zero degree weather, what does that end up 241 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: looking like? Because I'm assuming what the Packers are gonna 242 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 1: do here is they're going to completely staff the box. 243 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 1: They're bringing their safe these down, uh And I would imagine, 244 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: you know, they play a lot of zone and this 245 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,680 Speaker 1: should be a huge, huge Kittle day who just crushes 246 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 1: zones um. But you know, I think they're gonna bring 247 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 1: their safeties out, and if you get Jay Alexander back, 248 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 1: you can play a lot more man on the outside. Um, 249 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 1: but they're gonna play and I think they're gonna just 250 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: try to stack the box and say, Jimmy, you have 251 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: to throw it. You have to throw it here to 252 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:25,559 Speaker 1: beat us and do those injuries you know, in the cold. 253 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: We haven't seen them in the cold with his thumb 254 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: and now shoulder injury. That would be my only concern. 255 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: But I think this line is too high. UM. I 256 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: would lean also towards it. Maybe a first half under outdoors. 257 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: You know, San Francisco is just these are two of 258 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: the slowest teams in the NFL, by the way, you know, 259 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: San Francisco is gonna just run, run, run, just eat 260 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: up the clock. The Packers, for whatever reason, I started 261 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 1: slow all year the twenty five and first quarter points, 262 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,199 Speaker 1: so you know, and then they kind of get cooking 263 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 1: once they diagnosed the defense. But you know, I wouldn't 264 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:57,679 Speaker 1: maybe look at the first half under. You don't want 265 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 1: Rogers coming from behind. You also don't want Jimmy g 266 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: having to chuck it all over. He's either going to 267 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: be you know, throwing it effectively or throwing it to 268 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: the other team. If he's hurt, so that would be 269 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 1: my only concern. And you know that Rogers is gonna 270 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 1: turn it over and Jimmy G Is probably gonna have 271 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: one interception right where like he's gonna throw it to 272 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 1: a linebacker at one point when he doesn't see them 273 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 1: dropping back. When does that interception come? That's key? But yeah, 274 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: I think that the forty niners is the side here 275 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,439 Speaker 1: plus six. I would imagine if BOSSA gets ruled in 276 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 1: and then you don't get a just you know, word 277 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 1: out that Jimmy G's completely crippled, And I think this 278 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: line will drop by game time. 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Slash r G in Colorado, Jersey, 301 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: and Virginia were call on nine with it Indiana seventy 302 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 1: seventy one seventeen for confidential help. In Michigan, Tennessee, redline 303 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: is one nine We're gonna one hundred gamble dot in 304 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,360 Speaker 1: West Virginia or called one hundred next step or text 305 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 1: next step to find three. Okay, so Sunday, I'm gonna 306 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 1: keep this simple. I'm taking the Ramps. Kindn't like the 307 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 1: money line. I just I just like the Ramps. That's 308 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: my logic. What would say you say I took the 309 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 1: Rams plus three? Here, Um, it's tough spots since you 310 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 1: have the you know you have the short week. I 311 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 1: hate that the NFL move the game the Monday, just 312 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: three and three on Saturday and Sunday, I personally love. 313 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 1: But yeah, this this Rams team, I think they built 314 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 1: their team two take on this Bucks team like this is. 315 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 1: Their defense matches up well. They can generate pressure up front, 316 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 1: and that's what you have to do against Brady. The 317 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: offensive line injuries for Tampa are massive in this matchup, 318 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 1: just massive against the Rams defense. It's top seven and 319 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: adjusted sachary to pressure rate. Aaron Donald has had a 320 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: lot of success against Brady. This Rams team. Look, they 321 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: crushed the final sword and score not that indicative, but 322 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: they crushed the Tampa earlier this year. They also went 323 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: into Tampa last year the Super Bowl team in late November, 324 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: and they dominated. I mean they held on the two 325 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 1: forty yards. They averaged two yards per play. More golf 326 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: through all over Tampa. Bucks Bucks defense a lot healthy now, 327 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 1: so I don't think the Rams are gonna get a 328 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 1: lot of the ground. But I think this is a 329 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 1: Stafford a Stafford game. He can have success against the secondary. 330 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: He's excellent against the blitz. These receivers are great against 331 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 1: the blitz, and that's what Tampa does. Tampa Blitz is 332 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: more than any team in the NFL. So I think 333 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 1: it sets up well on both sides. You know you're 334 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 1: going against Brady in the playoffs. It's never great, but 335 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 1: I think catching the field goal here is too many 336 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: points and for what it's worth. McVeigh. I don't know 337 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 1: what what exactly he does, but he always has his 338 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: teams really prepared for these East Coast games, so you 339 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 1: know when he when he brings them out to the East, 340 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: they are covering machines. Tastes ten and plus. He's ten 341 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 1: and four against the spread as a road dog, covered 342 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 1: by six points per game. But he's ten and five 343 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: against the spread on the East Coast, covering by a 344 00:16:56,080 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 1: touchdown per game. Twelve and three straight up on the 345 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 1: East Coast, including that game at Tampa last year. Uh yeah, 346 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 1: So I think that I think the Rams are gonna 347 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 1: get this done on the road. Well, I think it's 348 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: Titans fans are gonna be mad at me. But I 349 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: feels like this is the a f C championship game, 350 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: uh in Arrowhead, and this is just this is a 351 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,479 Speaker 1: fantastic game. I mean, if if you like football, if 352 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 1: you like sports, both both these two teams honestly their 353 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: home when their home, it feels like a college game. 354 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,639 Speaker 1: Arrowhead is just gonna be going berserk. The star power, 355 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 1: you know, Andy versus a guy that Sean McDermott's career 356 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: started as Andy's assistant and worked his way up with 357 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 1: the Eagles, so they know each other well. These teams 358 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 1: have played a lot. I mean they played last year 359 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: in the a f C Championship game. Uh. You know, 360 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: to me, this is a true coin flip game. I 361 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: would just lean with the team that I've seen do 362 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: it over and over, the Chiefs. But I'm not like 363 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 1: not taking the bill seriously at all. I would struggle 364 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 1: to bet on this game. I guess I would take 365 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: the Chiefs minus two. Uh. This feels like this lines 366 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 1: come down a little bit last when I saw originally 367 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,239 Speaker 1: it was two and a half three right, it's come 368 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: down who knows by kickoff. Maybe it's one and a 369 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 1: half Bills getting some love. Uh, but I guess I 370 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: lean the Chiefs just because I've seen them win these games. 371 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,360 Speaker 1: And it's at home, which is you know, for both 372 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,360 Speaker 1: these two teams a pretty big advantage. Yeah. I think 373 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 1: the Bills are gonna win this game, but I would 374 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,880 Speaker 1: need plus three to bet it. Um. I have lots 375 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: of My only future this year it was uh on 376 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 1: the Bills. I took some a little sand firm and 377 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:32,440 Speaker 1: we talked about it. But my main future is on 378 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:34,879 Speaker 1: the Bills before the year fourteen to one. And it's 379 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 1: funny we talked the right Maybe the first thing you 380 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,919 Speaker 1: said in the podcast is everyone disrespects Tennessee. And then 381 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: we both are just like, yeah, this is the c Championship. 382 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: Um so um, and tight said like, we beat both 383 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: of these teams at home, and we'll play one of 384 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 1: them at home if we win, and the exactly they 385 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,120 Speaker 1: host the game. Yeah, the host a game, which is wild. Um. Yeah, 386 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 1: this is gonna be an amazing game. Um. I look, 387 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 1: the Bills have constructed their team for this game. I 388 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:05,199 Speaker 1: mean they spent all offseason. They've been thinking about how 389 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 1: can we beat the Chiefs after last year and this 390 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 1: is the fourth time they're gonna play in last year, 391 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:09,480 Speaker 1: they play in the regular season, last year and this 392 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 1: year as well, I'm gonna make a case for it. Shockingly, 393 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 1: this is no everyone, no one's gonna bet this with me. 394 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 1: But I'm gonna make a case for the under. And um, 395 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: you know, this game could easily turn out to Betty one, 396 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 1: but I got the under fifty five. It's like down 397 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 1: to fifty four. Now, I would not go any lower 398 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: than that. I would wait wait to see if this 399 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 1: total rises. But look, if you look at these two teams, 400 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 1: First of all, it's hard to replicate what the Bills 401 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: and the Chiefs did on offense two weeks in a row, 402 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: uh this week. But these two two teams have a 403 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: ton of familiarity with each other. Four time they played, 404 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 1: there's gonna be no real surprises. And Buffalo when they played, 405 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:45,400 Speaker 1: you know, if you look both of the times they 406 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: last tw times they played, the game went way over. 407 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 1: But last year when Kansas City played Buffalo, their offense 408 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,359 Speaker 1: just went nuts. Buffalo has since fixed their defense are 409 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,119 Speaker 1: number one adjusted for opponent in defense. They can now 410 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: get pressure on the defensive line. They're gonna play the 411 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: two deep safeties or earlier this year, the reason the 412 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 1: game went over is because the Bills offense went nuts. Well. 413 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 1: The Chiefs defense is at a different chats for than 414 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: what it was earlier there they were the worst defense 415 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 1: in the NFL. They didn't have Chris Jones, they didn't 416 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 1: have Ward and Specnell's defense is always overperformed in the playoffs. 417 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: He kind of figures out, okay, what what what schemes 418 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: are working and it's just one of those things. A 419 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: lot of familiarity here and the Chiefs now are you know? 420 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 1: And we've seen some calkers out of both offenses this year, 421 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 1: like just okay, the Chief's offense looks really bad and 422 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 1: the Bills too, like they'll look great and then next 423 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 1: week they very inconsistent offenses. But what the Chiefs have 424 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: to do now and the Bills are gonna make them do. 425 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,719 Speaker 1: This is their number one against the explosive past Buffalo, 426 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 1: and they're gonna have two deep safeties and they're gonna say, 427 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,239 Speaker 1: Kansas City, go down the field and we're gonna make 428 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 1: you good on the fiel good on the field. And 429 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:47,680 Speaker 1: then we're gonna try to create a turnover at one point, 430 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: a big negative play. That's what happens in the first meeting. 431 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 1: So the Chiefs now who have been a little better 432 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 1: at doing that since that that Bills game. They they 433 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: have time consuming drives. I mean this, they have seven 434 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: eight minute drives. I mean getting over fifth five points 435 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 1: in the NFL playoffs outdoors, you need a lot to 436 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: go right, you know, if you have a red one 437 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 1: red zone turnover, if you have a couple of field 438 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,360 Speaker 1: goals you're not getting you're not getting there. The only 439 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 1: I mean this, it would probably be really bad if 440 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:13,399 Speaker 1: one of these teams goes way off, like if the 441 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,879 Speaker 1: film's got fourteen nothing then that so like that's when 442 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 1: you live. Bet the Chiefs over at any time. Um 443 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: So yeah, I think the Bills are gonna win, but 444 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 1: it's close to a coin flip. I wouldn't blame anyone 445 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 1: from You can make a case for either side here 446 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 1: if you want to bet the side, because I'm sure 447 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: no one out there wants to bet the Bills Chiefs 448 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 1: under Um I would well. One one bet that I 449 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: made for Sunday is I teased the Bills up past 450 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: eight that teased them up six points with the Rams, 451 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 1: So both of those teams getting eight or nine points. 452 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: I think at worse both games are one possession. Well, 453 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,720 Speaker 1: I like where your head's at, stucky, and uh, that's 454 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 1: a lot of good information. Have a good weekend, enjoy, 455 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,120 Speaker 1: enjoy the gambling, and uh, let's make some money again. 456 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,640 Speaker 1: I think the thing we both agree on the strongest 457 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: is the Rams this weekend. I think that that's pretty 458 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 1: good value. Obviously plus three, but even just take him 459 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: down right when, like you said that the the offensive 460 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: line injuries, I mean worse is one of the better 461 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 1: I know offensive lineman unless you're like Trent Williams are 462 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 1: really famous, Like are not the sixtiest positions. That guy's 463 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 1: a star and you know he's high ankle sprains, he's 464 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: done and who knows what I mean, you saw you 465 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 1: saw it last week once him and then you know 466 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 1: Jensen has banged up as well. You saw it once 467 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 1: that happened last Eagles got after him a little. I 468 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 1: mean Brady was just getting tackled right after the snap 469 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: every single play. Rams can do that as well. They 470 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 1: also have a better secondary and look, this is it's 471 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 1: just not a Tampa team at full strength, um, their 472 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 1: offensive line, you have, you know you're missing Godwin, Antonio 473 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 1: Brown is no longer. They're all those things. I think 474 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 1: the only thing that makes me nervous, though stucky, is 475 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 1: is Stafford because when he played like he did on 476 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: Monday night, and when he's on he looks like Josh 477 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 1: Allen or Mahome. He looks awesome. We saw him that 478 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 1: second half of the year. Hell I saw him live 479 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 1: from multiple picks. It's just if we get the good Stafford, 480 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:07,879 Speaker 1: they can win this game by ten points. But if 481 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,480 Speaker 1: he's the guy that fumbles, grows pick sixes, and it's 482 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 1: just you know who knows. And if McVeigh can just 483 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 1: get his head right that he did and the Cardinals 484 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,159 Speaker 1: were imploding, but they still have a lot of good 485 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 1: defensive players and he was locked in. If we get 486 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: the good Stafford, I feel very yeah, that's the that's 487 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 1: that's gonna be the case that I think a lot 488 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,880 Speaker 1: of people make and more casual betters and and maybe 489 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 1: it's the right against against them. As you say, Stafford 490 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 1: and Jimmy g are are way more prone to make 491 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: turn of stakes on the road, and Brady and Rogers 492 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:48,160 Speaker 1: simply don't. Uh, these guys are elite, I mean them, 493 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, they're like three of the lowest career interception 494 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 1: rates in NFL history. So I did stucky, I did 495 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: the math. The last three years, Rogers has thirteen in 496 00:23:59,920 --> 00:24:04,680 Speaker 1: or eceptions. Jimmy G had twelve this year, so it 497 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: easily could have had about Yes, you need that like that, 498 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 1: Jimmy G. Mistake is you want that to come like 499 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,719 Speaker 1: um and if yeah, first quarter or like maybe at 500 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: like the Green Bay thirty thirty five. Um. Same with Stafford, 501 00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 1: like if he's gonna throw a pick, you can't have 502 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,880 Speaker 1: it be a devastating pick like in your own time 503 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. Yeah, and then because you know 504 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 1: then Rogers are Brady, You're gonna punch it in. So um, 505 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 1: it's it's definitely a worry with both. But I think 506 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 1: that there's enough other matchup advantages in value the line 507 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 1: to take the dogs here and uh, dogs in the 508 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: division around for one since two thousand three covered by 509 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:52,920 Speaker 1: an average margin about two points per game, So that 510 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 1: might be the you know, kind of the inflation you 511 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 1: get with these with these home teams. Um. So yeah, 512 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 1: I think that there's there's value on both and uh, 513 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 1: it's the best weekend in the NFL, I think. So 514 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 1: let's let's get some good games in, some winners. Let's go. Okay, 515 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: so you have a good weekend. See you, buddy. Yep, 516 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 1: he took the volume.