1 00:00:01,639 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: Democracy is at stake, and we have to have alliances 3 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: of people that strongly disagree on everything. But that fact, 4 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: the Placian is not going to be a prob Placion 5 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: will moderate Bloomberg Sound on politics, policy and perspective from 6 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: DC's top name. It would be insanity if the Democrats 7 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: don't do something on build back better. Pennsylvania, one of 8 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: the closest states in the election, will be critical for 9 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: deciding which party controls the Senate. After Bloomberg Sound On 10 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, the Three Ring Circus 11 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: today in Washington, how much can we take? Captain Supreme 12 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 1: Court Justice Stephen Bryer is retiring, The Rush of Ukraine 13 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,959 Speaker 1: standoff is developing, and all on a fed day. Good thing. 14 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: We have the fastest hour in politics as we unpack 15 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: all of these stories with some of the best minds 16 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: in politics. This hour, we'll speak with Greg Valier, chief 17 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: US policy strategist at a g F Investments. Later, our 18 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 1: conversation with Brett Bruin from the Global Situation Room, former 19 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 1: Director of Global Engagement in the Obama White House. His 20 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: view on these developments and the classic panel. Today, Bloomberg 21 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:22,479 Speaker 1: Politics contributors Jeanie Schanzano and Rick Davis are all ahead. 22 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 1: We start though with Bloomberg's White House reporter Josh wind Grove, 23 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 1: who's had a rather busy day and busy week, of course, 24 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: and was with the President yesterday when some of the 25 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: news on sanctions was made. We want to start off 26 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 1: the with the Federal Reserve. As you heard from Charlie Pellett, 27 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: FED chair j Powell said the Central Bank ready to 28 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 1: raise interest rates in March and did not rule out 29 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: as I read on the terminal moving at every meeting 30 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 1: for the rest of this year. Here's share Powell earlier today. 31 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: Inflation remains well above our longer run goal of two. 32 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: Supply and demand and bell is related to the pandemic 33 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute 34 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 1: to elevated levels of inflation. In particular, bottlenecks and supply 35 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 1: constraints are limiting how quickly production can respond to higher 36 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: demand in the near term. These problems have been larger 37 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 1: and longer lasting than anticipated, exacerbated by waves of the virus, 38 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: and by that he means not transitory and this is 39 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 1: where we begin with Josh wind Grove. We'll pick through 40 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: each of these through the prism of the White House. Josh, 41 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,239 Speaker 1: it's great to have you. Is it clear now, Is 42 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: it confirmed that the FED had this wrong while the 43 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 1: White House was deferring to J. Powell on inflation. Well, 44 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,399 Speaker 1: I think that the White Houses will be happy when 45 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 1: the Fed hits the gas a little bit too, pull 46 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 1: some heat off inflation. I know Joe Biden tends to 47 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: risk getting himself in trouble the longer Heat talks. It 48 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 1: feels like markets felt the same way about j. Powell today. 49 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: Pretty up, positive reaction turned turned negative as remarks went on. Look, 50 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,239 Speaker 1: Joe Biden has has kind of walked up to the line, 51 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: uh and not crossed it, but walked up to it 52 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: of of weighing in on the FEDS sort of now 53 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,920 Speaker 1: bats away questions about inflation by saying it's you know, 54 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 1: that he believes in the FEDS ability to bring that down. 55 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 1: That of course implicitly signals that he wants them to, 56 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:18,399 Speaker 1: you know, get on with it. And so we'll see. 57 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: And of course we're watching the confirmations of his nominations 58 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: to the board. But inflation is one of, if not 59 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: the biggest problem facing President Biden right now. And I'm 60 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: sure he'll be delighted if those numbers come down, you know, 61 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: whether by the FED or other measures. But it also 62 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: kind of confirms the fact, right that that we have 63 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: a problem here, um and and the FED will remind 64 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: us apparently of that at every meeting for the rest 65 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 1: of the year. Does this romanic campaign issue then through 66 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 1: the mid terms. Yeah, Republicans are seizing on this. You know, 67 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that it's the overall basket of you know, 68 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: inflation goods, that there are the problems so much as 69 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: how people feel it. Right price at the pump is 70 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: probably the biggest one. And you know, Biden needs to 71 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 1: look like he's doing something on that. They're pushing the 72 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: Build Back Better Act, which of course was sort of 73 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: left for dead in December when Joe Mansion, uh, you know, 74 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 1: pulled pulled the plug, and now they're trying to revive 75 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: something chunks. Biden has said to pass something they hope 76 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: that will make sort of a longer term difference, but 77 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: in the short term, mean, fundamentally, inflation is going up 78 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 1: because you know, there are structural issues and supply chains 79 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: they're trying to do something about that, and people have 80 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: money to spend and there's not enough goods for him 81 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: to spend it on. So stuff's calling stuff going up. Well, 82 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: you know there as we as we said earlier today 83 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio and TV, Josh, this was the president 84 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 1: that's doing more than walking and chewing gum. I think 85 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 1: you had him doing something else at the same time, 86 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 1: because we've got three to deal with here. Uh. This 87 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: surprise announcement from Stephen Bryer maybe not so surprising for 88 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: some White House is speaking still in hypotheticals they are, yeah, 89 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 1: but you know they did plant to flag again in 90 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: previous statements from the President that he intends to appoint 91 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: a black woman to the first opening that comes up 92 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 1: on the court. This, of course would be that chance. 93 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: And I think, you know, pretty widespread. Uh. I don't 94 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 1: want to say jubilation, but deforcots don't seem heartbroken of this, 95 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 1: of this impending retirement. Now, the timeline is the question. 96 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 1: He said he's going to serve to the end of 97 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: his term. That kind of pushes it into the summertime. 98 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: There's good news and bad news in that. The good 99 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:10,360 Speaker 1: news is that it buys them time to do other 100 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 1: stuff in the meantime. The bad news is, of course, 101 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 1: every you know moment that that they don't move on 102 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 1: a pick, they risk losing uh slim majorities. I mean, 103 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: this is sort of something gets whispered about. But you know, 104 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 1: you never know with some senators in particular, are are 105 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:28,840 Speaker 1: are you know, not not as young as they used 106 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: to be, and so you know, it's the thing you 107 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 1: never know when an illness or or god forbid worse 108 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 1: could could change the voting numbers. So right now, I 109 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 1: think Democrats are certainly praising the legacy of Justice Briar, 110 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: but turning pretty quickly to the push to to put 111 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:48,720 Speaker 1: someone else new in place. And of course there's a 112 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:50,799 Speaker 1: couple of names that are already being floated as front runners. 113 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 1: We only have a couple of minutes here, Josh. Pretty 114 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,839 Speaker 1: big news though Russia Ukraine agree to more talks in 115 00:05:57,880 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: two weeks. Does that take some of the heat off 116 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 1: a president for know, Yeah, I think they want to 117 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: be you know, anything that is not an invasion to 118 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:06,799 Speaker 1: take the heat off the president. We we had news 119 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: today that the written response to Russia has been delivered 120 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: by the US. They haven't said what that is. It's 121 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 1: sort of signal a little mirror what they said publicly. 122 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,039 Speaker 1: I expect Republicans to hit them on that, you know, 123 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 1: look for Biden to start rotating or or come close 124 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 1: and to make a decision on troops that they plan 125 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: on rotating through NATO Eastern flank countries. And remember, of 126 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: course he's ruled out sending troops to Ukraine itself, So 127 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 1: we'll see. Remember NATO country in particular, EU countries, Germany, France, 128 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: and the US are really not all on the same page. 129 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: But how far they want to go on sanctions and 130 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: which sectors to sanction. Thanks for the time today, Josh 131 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: wing Grove, White House reporter for Bloomberg who helps us 132 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 1: set the table for our conversation with Greg Valier, a 133 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 1: g F Investment's chief US policy strategist. Greg, we couldn't 134 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 1: have picked a busier day, I think to get together here, 135 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: and I'd love to. I hope I have time to 136 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 1: pick through each of these with you, but I'd like 137 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: to turned to the situation a little bit more in 138 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 1: depth with Russia Ukraine. Uh, you have a specialty in 139 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: this field, and you know where the White House stands 140 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: on this a little breathing room for two weeks. I 141 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: suspect could go a long way. But what's your concern 142 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: right now? As the White House tries to get on 143 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:20,239 Speaker 1: the same page as European allies with sanctions, I guess, 144 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: and great to be with you. I guess my biggest 145 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: concern is Germany, which hasn't been going along with the 146 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: rest of the NATO allies. But I've got to think 147 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: we now have a little gap here. I don't think 148 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 1: that Vladimir Putin wants to upstage China's leader Z with 149 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: the Olympics coming up outside of Beijing. The Olympics are 150 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 1: from the fourth of February till the twentieth of February. 151 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: I just don't think that Z would be happy to 152 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: have world headlines focus on an invasion of Ukraine. So 153 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 1: I think we got a gap. I think we got 154 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 1: a little bit of breathing room until the end of February. 155 00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: The news today unexpected, I suppose, but they did deliver 156 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: the letter, the response that we had heard about, a 157 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 1: written response to Russia on its demands. The Secretary of 158 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: State Anthony B. Lincoln said, it sets out a serious 159 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: diplomatic path forward. So you could view this as progress. 160 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: Greg Valier some yes, I think there's probably carrots and 161 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 1: sticks in this, the carrots being perhaps a reduction of 162 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: arms from the US and that part of the world, 163 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 1: the reduction of military exercises. There's some things we can 164 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,199 Speaker 1: offer that that might Sweden of the deal. I think 165 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 1: the sticks are pretty clear. I think that the sanctions 166 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 1: against Russia, their banking industry, sanctions on technology transfers are 167 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: not trivial. I think these are serious sanctions. So I'm 168 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: in a minority. I guess I'm not convinced the will 169 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: be and all out invasion. I do think Russia will 170 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 1: have cyber warfare. Maybe they'll be skirmishes at the border, 171 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: but the bottom line is this land real. Putin really 172 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 1: does he really want to see thousands of casualties of 173 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: Russian troops. I think if they go in the Ukrainian 174 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: people will resist very aggressively. Speaking of sticks, J Powell's 175 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: got a couple of them, with what looks like a 176 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 1: series of interest rate hikes for the rest of the year. 177 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 1: How did he do today? Did he take any heat 178 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: off the White House when it comes to inflation? Not really, 179 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: and the markets weren't pleased because he left so many 180 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: options open. A lot of people felt he didn't offer 181 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,679 Speaker 1: the clarity that everyone was hoping for today. I mean, 182 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: we all know we're going to get a rate hike 183 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 1: in March, probably a couple more, but there's all sorts 184 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: of other issues, like the balance sheet, which Powell did 185 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: not discuss. So I think for investors who were looking 186 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: for clear signals, there's some frustration. Where's your money on 187 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 1: March twenty five or fifty basis? I think it's twenty five. 188 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 1: I think they can't do fifty right away. You know, 189 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 1: there are some size that there. The economy is not 190 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: super robust, is you mentioned in the earlier interview. I mean, 191 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 1: there's still big issues with supply chains and the port 192 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: of Los Angeles. There's big, big issues with semiconductor chips 193 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,719 Speaker 1: that are scarce, and that's hurting the auto industry. It's 194 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 1: gonna be the story. The US economy is red hot 195 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 1: right now, and it's not like one on a FED 196 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 1: funds rate is all that either, which is what we're 197 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 1: talking about. Greg Valier. It's great to have you back 198 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: with us on Bloomberg Sound On from a g F Investments. 199 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 1: We assemble the panel next Rick and Jeanie with us today. 200 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. Sound 201 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. So did the 202 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: White House get a heads up? And how is this 203 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 1: not official yet? As we turned to the retirement here 204 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 1: of Supreme Court Justice Stephen Bryer, news landed in our 205 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 1: lapse right at noontime. I'll never forget that moment. As 206 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 1: we were just opening Balance of Power, the headline hits 207 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:01,079 Speaker 1: look at this, well, see like the White House didn't 208 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 1: expect that to come out today. As we assemble the panel, 209 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 1: I want you to listen to Jensaki, White House Press Secretary, 210 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:10,959 Speaker 1: about whether she was asked a number of things about 211 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:13,199 Speaker 1: this in this particular case, asked if President Biden will 212 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: keep his pledge to a point a black female justice. 213 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 1: Listen to the way she words the answer. So, let's say, hypothetically, 214 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: but Supreme Court justice was to retire and announce it 215 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:30,679 Speaker 1: on his or her own terms, does President Biden plan 216 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 1: to honor his pledge to nominate a black woman could work? Well. 217 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: I've commented on this previously. The President has stated and 218 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: reiterated his commitment to nominating black woman to the Supreme 219 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 1: Court and certainly stands by that um for today. Again, 220 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: I'm just not going to be able to say anything 221 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:56,599 Speaker 1: about any specifics until, of course, Justice Brier makes any announcement, 222 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 1: should he decide to make an announcement. But they had 223 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: to get ahead up on this, right Bloomberg Politics and 224 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 1: tributors Jeanie Shechanzano and Rick Davis are with us. You 225 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: think the President spoke with Justice Briar last weekend, Geennie. 226 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 1: How come this didn't come together differently? You know, we 227 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: don't know if he spoke to him. Maybe we will 228 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: know at some point, but what we do know is 229 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: that Justice Brier has shown what a a smart politician 230 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: he is in addition to being a smart justice, because 231 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,679 Speaker 1: he has put Biden in the Democrats in the best 232 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: position they can be at with this timing of this 233 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: announcement should it come we don't know yet, and also 234 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 1: because we believe he may say he will stay until 235 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: after the nominee is confirmed. Those two things give the 236 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: Biden administration, in a difficult time, the best position they 237 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 1: can to fill this, you know, his seat should it 238 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 1: become available, which we may know more tomorrow. What do 239 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 1: you think about the way this came together? Rick? To 240 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: hear the Press secretary talking about this hypothetical situation in 241 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 1: which Justice Briar or gosh, any one might want to 242 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 1: retire this year. Of course, they had to know this 243 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 1: was coming, right, you know, I don't know. It's either 244 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 1: they knew it and it was the most botched up 245 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: announcement you've ever seen in Washington, or they didn't know 246 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: it and it was a botched up announcement coming out 247 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,199 Speaker 1: of Washington. I mean, Uh, this is a big deal, 248 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:23,960 Speaker 1: opening up a potential Supreme Court debate in the Senate. Uh, 249 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 1: in an election year. I mean that's like, that's like 250 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 1: dropping a nuclear bomb on the Capitol and like not 251 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: knowing who it came from. I'm I'm stunned at the 252 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: White House basically played dumb on this day. Uh, This, 253 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: as Gen said, is huge news for them. They got 254 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:43,960 Speaker 1: a gift. Otherwise the story was all inflation, which is 255 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 1: really bad news for them. So I gotta tell you, 256 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 1: I mean, maybe they're creating a lane for Briar to 257 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: do a victory lap or something, but honestly, there could 258 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 1: have been a hundred ways to do this that would 259 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 1: have been much more uh impactful than sort of this 260 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,959 Speaker 1: leaking out of the noon hour right before the FED 261 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 1: meeting and and without the White House being able to 262 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: lean in on it. Yeah, really something else. Statement from 263 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: Joe Mansion on the Briar retirement. I'll pull it up 264 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 1: for you in just a moment as I just turned 265 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: to Twitter. Here, Um interesting, Jack Fitzpatrick from Bloomberg Government 266 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 1: has been kicking these out. Here's the statement. Justice Brier 267 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 1: has dedicated much of his life to upholding the rule 268 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 1: of law, and we are grateful for his service. I 269 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: wish him a happy and fulfilling retirement. The senator from 270 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 1: West Virginia says, I take my constitutional responsibility to advise 271 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 1: and consent on a nominee to the Supreme Court very seriously. 272 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: I look forward to meeting with and evaluating the qualifications 273 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 1: of President Biden's nominee. That's the statement from Joe Mansion. 274 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 1: Should we assume Democrats will all be on board here, 275 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: Jennie will need everyone, right, they will need everyone. And 276 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 1: you know, Josh really put the fear in them when 277 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: you're during your conversation, because he's absolutely right. Should somebody 278 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 1: God forbid, get ill or something have no room. You 279 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 1: have no room for error, and gosh, you've got to 280 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 1: be imagining that the Republicans right now are saying, we 281 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 1: wish we had a filibuster for these nominees. We don't. 282 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 1: And so Democrats, if they all stayed together, can do this. 283 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: And that puts a lot of pressure on the White 284 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: House as they consider who they're gonna put forward. Because 285 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: the President, as you as as you talked about, has 286 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: already suggested he wants a woman of color. He's also 287 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: talked about wanting somebody who has a background in criminal 288 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 1: justice reform areas. I don't know how far he'll get 289 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 1: on that. He's got a lot of great women of 290 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 1: color to choose from, but it's got to be somebody 291 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: you can get through a lot of talk about Jackson. 292 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 1: But I think we should also think about Childs because 293 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 1: James Clyburne has been pushing her. So there are some 294 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: great nominees out there, but they have no room for 295 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 1: error on this pick. What do you make of the 296 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: confirmation process here? Rick agreeing with Genie or or could 297 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: the President run into some issues getting the numbers he needs. 298 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 1: We saw a couple of actually three Republicans, including Lindsay 299 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: gram Uh vote for Judge Getaggi brown Jackson in in 300 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: her confirmation last June to the Federal Appeals Court. Does 301 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: that happen all over again? Yeah? I imagine there are 302 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 1: a lot of voices around the White House conference table today, 303 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: and I'm sure the political ones are saying, Look, take 304 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: take brown Jackson. She just got confirmed. She got fifty 305 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 1: three votes. You've got three Republicans. You know, let's get 306 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 1: this done as quick as we can. Because every day 307 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 1: that goes by that this is not a confirmation that 308 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: has happened and he signed, it is a day that 309 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 1: could get upset by the politics of the day. And 310 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 1: there's so many things that can disrupt this nomination. Um. 311 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 1: I would remind everybody that House members don't get to 312 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: vote on a nomination for the Supreme Court. So I 313 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: think this is going to be all about the Democrats 314 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 1: in the Senate. A lot more from the panel. Genie 315 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: and Rick are with us for the hour. Will get 316 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: their take on the FED pick or the FED meeting. 317 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 1: I should say later and talk about those three FED picks, 318 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: because we've got a whole bunch of confirmation hearing is 319 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: coming up. Market news on the way. We'll talk to 320 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 1: Brett Bruin on the other side. This is Bloomberg. So 321 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 1: we got back to the Russians has promised the written 322 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 1: response on the crisis in Ukraine, not a love letter. 323 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,199 Speaker 1: It was announced today by Secretary of State Anthony blinkoln 324 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:18,439 Speaker 1: Here he is putting things in writing is also a 325 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 1: good way, as we do all the time across the board. 326 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:25,919 Speaker 1: Um is a good way to make sure we're as 327 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 1: precise as possible and the Russians understand our positions, our 328 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: ideas as clearly as possible. Right now, the UH document 329 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: is with them and the balls in their court. Balls 330 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 1: in their court as we now wait a couple of 331 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: weeks for talks. The NATO Military Alliance, as I read 332 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: on the terminal, confirms soon after it provided its own 333 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: document and they are in sync on This didn't take everything, 334 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 1: obviously as we expected, rejecting some of the Kremlin's key demands, 335 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,399 Speaker 1: and then eight hours of talks between Russia and Ukraine 336 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: along with France and Germany, producing an agreement to meet 337 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,159 Speaker 1: again in two weeks on the continuing tensions in the 338 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 1: Dunbus region. We're joined by Brett Bruin Global situation Room President, 339 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: former Director of Global Engagement at the White House, Brett, 340 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 1: do you see this as progress? It felt like we 341 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 1: were moving on a daily basis closer to a possible 342 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 1: military conflict. This feels like it's got a bit of 343 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:27,120 Speaker 1: a cooling effect. It is a cooling effect, and yet 344 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: we have to also treat it with a bit of 345 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 1: caution because unfortunately, with Russia you can have ebbs and flows, 346 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 1: and often those ebbs are quite strategic. I think what 347 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 1: Putin is doing at the moment is a strategic move 348 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:48,679 Speaker 1: to show that he is engaged in diplomacy. And we 349 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 1: had heard earlier from Prime Minister, or rather Foreign Minister 350 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: lab Rong, that the Russians would exhaust diplomacy and then 351 00:18:57,600 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: they would take matters into their own hands. So we 352 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 1: still have to be cautious. Continuing to deny though that 353 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 1: they ever had an intention to invade Ukraine, they say, 354 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: we're the ones coming up with these crazy ideas. But 355 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: one of the ideas floated this week, Breton, you got 356 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:14,120 Speaker 1: my attention on Twitter shortly after it happened, was this 357 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 1: idea of personal sanctions. President Biden says that he's certainly 358 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 1: open to this. Uh answering a reporter yesterday said, yeah, 359 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: we could see this happen, and we've got a story 360 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 1: on this. Now the President says Putin at risk of 361 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 1: personal sanctions over Ukraine. Is this just a threat and 362 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: is this unprecedented? It is a big step. Very rarely 363 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 1: does the United States personally sanction a foreign head of state. 364 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 1: And I remember these discussions. In fact, I remember my 365 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:50,719 Speaker 1: frustration in the situation room after Russia invaded Crimea and 366 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:54,359 Speaker 1: other parts of eastern Ukraine in two thousand fourteen, and 367 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: I was told, we don't as a general rule sanctioned 368 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 1: foreign leaders. We ran into the with Mohammed bin Salman 369 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 1: when they did not ultimately place blame and responsibility at 370 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: his doorstep. And yet President Finding this week opened the 371 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:12,880 Speaker 1: door at least. And I think that was a shot 372 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: across the bow at Putin because we know where his 373 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 1: billions of dollars are stashed. We do know, because I 374 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: keep hearing, boy, you know, go ahead and sanction the 375 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 1: man directly, but good luck finding all of his money. Well, 376 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 1: we are in the US government, as listeners to Bloomberg 377 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 1: will know quite adept at following the trial of money 378 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 1: and Putin has a group of folks that he essentially 379 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,439 Speaker 1: hands out his money to hold onto. So it's not 380 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 1: in the account under Vladimir Putin, So we go after them. 381 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 1: We we will seize um and freeze that money. And 382 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:55,160 Speaker 1: I think it's a real threat to Putin and his plans. 383 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 1: Take me inside the situation room, as you refer, what's 384 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: happening inside this White House right now, we're hearing about 385 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,639 Speaker 1: meetings with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the Secretary 386 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,200 Speaker 1: of Defense. They're not on the President's public schedule. What's 387 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 1: happening in the West Wing. There are a series of 388 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 1: round the clock meetings, and they're being held at all levels. 389 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: And one interesting feature of the national security process for 390 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: the US government is you will have meetings that start 391 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: at a lower level and they quickly get escalated and 392 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:29,400 Speaker 1: decisions than get pushed back down for implementation plans and 393 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 1: for a further consideration. So this is an iterative process. 394 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:36,359 Speaker 1: But you have generals, you have ambassadors, you have intelligence 395 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 1: officials and senior other government officials coming in and out 396 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,959 Speaker 1: of the West Wing throughout the day and the evening. 397 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 1: Are we prepared? I'm sure they gave several different military responses. 398 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:55,400 Speaker 1: Are we prepared UH to handle whatever Russia throws at 399 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 1: Ukraine if it decides to cross the border. And how 400 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 1: many different scenarios that be? What are they looking at? 401 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,800 Speaker 1: Is there a cyber scenario for instance? Is there one? 402 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: Where's Hank's role in? How many different options does the 403 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 1: president have in the buffet here? Well, the problem that 404 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 1: Putin poses is that he is really good at asymmetric warfare. 405 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 1: So we don't know whether it will be a full 406 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,359 Speaker 1: on military assault or it will be more of a 407 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 1: hybrid situation. And my money at this point is on 408 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: less of a direct full scale military assault and more 409 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:34,440 Speaker 1: of small incursions accompanied by other disruptive activities. That being said, 410 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 1: and I think it's important what we've witnessed over the 411 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 1: last few days. The US has stepped up its game. 412 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 1: We're still not where we need to be, but you 413 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,399 Speaker 1: have seen the effect. And I think even today's announcement 414 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,439 Speaker 1: of further diplomacy has given the Kremlin pause to at 415 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:54,160 Speaker 1: least adjusted strategy. So the idea of having some sort 416 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 1: of UH staged incursion, well, remember we were talking about 417 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,119 Speaker 1: this UH the White House just a couple of days 418 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: or a week or so ago. Do you expect any 419 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 1: of that type of operation to take place. Russia has 420 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 1: a long history of doing this, of sabotage something to 421 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 1: make it look like they were provoked. Well, and I've 422 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,040 Speaker 1: studied Vladimir Putin a long time and one of the 423 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 1: things that's important to know about him is he prefers 424 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,439 Speaker 1: to engage in the shadows, and that I think is 425 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 1: what we are most likely to see. He will be 426 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: loath to put all of his cards, all of his 427 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 1: forces on the table. Great insights from Brett brewin Global 428 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 1: Situation Room. President spent time in the Obama White House 429 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: as Director of Global Engagement, can appreciate the insights Brett. 430 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,879 Speaker 1: We reassemble the panel next Rick and Jeanie with us 431 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,439 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Sound on, we'll check markets and traffic. Zo. 432 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. So 433 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 1: no with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, we circle two 434 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 1: weeks the calendar and reassemble the panel. I need to 435 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: hear from Rick and Genie on this, and we're fed 436 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 1: for that matter. Well, we're splitting the screen three ways today, 437 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 1: the Justice Brier announcement, the Federal Reserve meeting, and of 438 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 1: course Russia Ukraine developing today with a two week reprieve 439 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 1: following eight hours of talks. Imagine the mood in that 440 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: room between Russia and Ukraine. Kremlin Envoy Dmitri Kozack telling 441 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 1: reporters in Paris a new round will take place in 442 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 1: two weeks in Berlin. Bluebird Politics contributors Jeannie Shenzano and 443 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 1: Rick Davis are with us. Are you trusting any of this? Rick? No? 444 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: Why do we think that it's a reprieve for two weeks? Yeah, 445 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 1: it's two weeks that Vladimir Putin, can you know, expand 446 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:55,439 Speaker 1: his program of propaganda, disinformation, cyber attacks and espionage on 447 00:24:55,480 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 1: the Ukraine continue to further, you know, divide the allies, 448 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,840 Speaker 1: and and we have to fill that two weeks with 449 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 1: our own counter attack on on what he's trying to accomplish. 450 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 1: Otherwise we're seeding the ground to him. I'm encouraged by 451 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: some of the very forceful things that the US and 452 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: the Brits have been able to say and do about 453 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 1: exposing you know, these tactics by the Ukraine. But we 454 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 1: have to turn it up if we want to avoid 455 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: a conflict. What do you make of that Genie, does 456 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: it not by time for this White House or time 457 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 1: as corrosive as Rick is suggesting. I think it's unclear. 458 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,360 Speaker 1: I think there is a way in which people are 459 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 1: reading into this. We even heard the Deputy Secretary of 460 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 1: State echo what some people have been talking about about 461 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 1: perhaps the Olympics timing on this would suggest that Putin 462 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: wouldn't wouldn't move in. I don't think we can be 463 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,120 Speaker 1: so sure about that, nor can we be so sure 464 00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,719 Speaker 1: that they would wait two weeks until there's talks in Berlin. 465 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,399 Speaker 1: I think in terms of timing, it's also important to 466 00:25:56,520 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 1: underscore that Vladimir Putin has not spoken out of about 467 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,680 Speaker 1: any of this in one month. We have not had 468 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,399 Speaker 1: one statement from Vladimir Putin Putin on this topic in 469 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,879 Speaker 1: one month. So there's a lot of, you know, open 470 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 1: questions here, and the United States has to work very 471 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,360 Speaker 1: very hard to make sure that the allies are together 472 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 1: and Germany certainly is not, and that there they are 473 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 1: prepared for a response because, as I think you know 474 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: Brett just alluded to, Putin is likely to engage in 475 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 1: what he called the shadows, cyber attacks, other forms of attacks. 476 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 1: It may not be an all out you know, incursion 477 00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: with troops, but it may be something else, and the 478 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,680 Speaker 1: US and the Allies have got to respond because again, 479 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,639 Speaker 1: this is a sovereign nation and it is Putin's effort 480 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,639 Speaker 1: to try to rearrange security arrangements in Europe that have 481 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: been there since World War Two. So how do we 482 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,119 Speaker 1: fill the space? To your point, then, Rick, what should 483 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,960 Speaker 1: the president be doing? Is it more meetings uh in 484 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,080 Speaker 1: in public view with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. 485 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: Is it more talking tough with our allies or is 486 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,119 Speaker 1: the ball really in Vladimir Putin's court the way the 487 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,200 Speaker 1: Secretary of State said, Yeah, I don't think you want 488 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 1: to give the ball to Vladimir Putin. Um, you know, 489 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,760 Speaker 1: not many people who have been paying attention to it, 490 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 1: but um, you know this weekend the UK Intelligence UM 491 00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,479 Speaker 1: agency put out the fact that there is already a 492 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 1: cash of former officials from Ukraine who are being put 493 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 1: up by Russian intelligence to go in and take over 494 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 1: the country, you know, create a coup in essence. Uh. 495 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,400 Speaker 1: You know that they're either trying to buy off or 496 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 1: scare most of the senior military within the Ukraine to 497 00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:37,160 Speaker 1: open up the gates, you know, uh, And let let 498 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 1: the Russian tanks in. But I think everyone's focused on, 499 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: you know, tanks going across the border, whether real damage 500 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: could potentially be done internally. This is the kind of 501 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:51,160 Speaker 1: thing as Brett Bruin had talked about. Uh, Putin loves right. 502 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 1: This is espionage. This is his ability to without any fingerprints. 503 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 1: I don't look like that there's like a popular revolt 504 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:04,359 Speaker 1: against the current elected government a democracy, uh that that 505 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 1: Putin will try to undermine. So I think we have 506 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 1: to be out there every minute trying to back up 507 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 1: Zelinsky and his government, make sure that our allies are 508 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,439 Speaker 1: standing shoulder to shoulder. Um, we're already sanctioning some of 509 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 1: these Ukrainians that the Russians have put up to do 510 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 1: this because we know they're working with the Russian intelligence. 511 00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,600 Speaker 1: So I think continuing to report on that I think 512 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 1: will be key to keeping Putin's feet to the fire. 513 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 1: It's more travel smart, a big congressional codel, some big 514 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 1: names senators maybe touchdown in Ukraine in this two weeks. Banjini, 515 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 1: I think it can it can't hurt, It can't hurt 516 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 1: to keep the presence there. But I want to add 517 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: to over the weekend, you know, a lot of talk 518 00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 1: in in press outside of the United States and the 519 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 1: West about a new world order safe for autocrats. That's 520 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 1: what they're talking about in parts of China and parts 521 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 1: of Russia. And I think we can't lose sight of 522 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,600 Speaker 1: the fact that we have China looking at this and 523 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 1: seeing what it can do and what it is able 524 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 1: to do in Taiwan, and that is a big concern. 525 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 1: So we have to be careful how we respond to 526 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 1: Putin because there are other autocrats and very powerful autocrats 527 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 1: who are taking lessons from this. Talk about the document, 528 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 1: we're not going to see it, apparently rick as as 529 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,880 Speaker 1: some expected, they're not going to make it public. But 530 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 1: we did reply to Russia. Are written response. It rejects 531 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,440 Speaker 1: Russia's demand. We understand that NATO closed its door to 532 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,160 Speaker 1: eventual Ukraine membership in the Alliance. Wasn't that the most 533 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 1: important thing here at Vladimir Putin? Uh, Well, it's certainly 534 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 1: in a basket of tricks that uh he knew when 535 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,360 Speaker 1: he put these things together. You know weeks ago that 536 00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 1: we were going to say no to them. But um, 537 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 1: this was all part of a gambit to try and 538 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 1: create a process that he could keep us occupied while 539 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,400 Speaker 1: he tries to perform his dirty tricks. And so I'm 540 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:53,320 Speaker 1: glad the response went. I would have preferred, uh, Secretary 541 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 1: blink and actually publicly going through what's in the letter, 542 00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,960 Speaker 1: you know, and exposing the fact that Putin's losing out 543 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,680 Speaker 1: in this round. Otherwise it leaves an opportunity for Puttin 544 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 1: to make people believe that he's actually getting something out 545 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 1: of this negotiation, you know, which will embolden other autocrats 546 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 1: to think, oh, if I just you know, cause enough trouble, 547 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 1: I can get some uh some bennis from the United 548 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 1: States and our Eastern allies. Uh, I would say, what 549 00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 1: does make me confident that that this administration is on 550 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 1: it is? Um CIA Director Bill Burns was in Europe 551 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 1: this week and many people don't remember, but he was 552 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 1: actually an ambassador for the US to Russia and knows 553 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:35,440 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin extraordinarily well. And having him on point to 554 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 1: help organize some of the work that's being done with 555 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 1: our allies, I think is really a valuable asset to 556 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: have right now in this government. I want to just 557 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 1: touch on the FED one more time while I have 558 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 1: you both here, Rick and Janie or with us on 559 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,560 Speaker 1: sound on after the meeting today, we're gonna start talking 560 00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,719 Speaker 1: a lot more about the three openings, Uh, the nominees 561 00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 1: that came from President Biden. We're gonna be looking at 562 00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: more confirmation hearings. Genie, did today's meeting do anything you 563 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 1: think to change the conversation for lawmakers, namely Republicans who 564 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 1: are most concerned about inflation? Uh? You know, I think 565 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:13,360 Speaker 1: that I thought Josh's point was very well taken. That 566 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,760 Speaker 1: you know, I think last week Biden and this week 567 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 1: today Powell, they've got to take a lesson from FDR 568 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 1: B sincere be brief and b seated. The longer they talk, 569 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,840 Speaker 1: the worst it seemed to get. Um. It didn't get 570 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,480 Speaker 1: terribly bad, but it was about as clear as mud. 571 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,720 Speaker 1: And I don't think that works to the Democrats or 572 00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 1: the Biden administration's advantage. So I think we have to 573 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: take a weight and see attitude. It's not all depend 574 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,880 Speaker 1: on does inflation? You know, does are they able to 575 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 1: impact inflation in a positive direction? We don't know that yet. 576 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,120 Speaker 1: And I do think we are seeing signs from Pat 577 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,840 Speaker 1: Toomey and others that some of these FED nominees, in 578 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 1: particular Bluem Raskin are in trouble. Look, these may not 579 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,160 Speaker 1: be fun hearings for the nominees, Rick, but if we're 580 00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 1: actually in the midst of a tightening regime, if we 581 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,560 Speaker 1: know rate hikes are coming or we've all he begun them, 582 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 1: does it change the dynamic. I don't think it will 583 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 1: change the dynamic too much. I mean, I think the 584 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 1: fed UH, in their policy will operate regardless of what's 585 00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,240 Speaker 1: happening on Capitol Hill with these nominations. And I think 586 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:17,000 Speaker 1: the nominations will get their day in the limelight, and 587 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 1: and Republicans like Pat Toomey and others will make a 588 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 1: big stink about a few of these things. But ultimately 589 00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,800 Speaker 1: the votes are there to not to to get confirmed 590 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 1: these these individuals, and they'll they'll they'll go to work. 591 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,640 Speaker 1: I agree with what Jeanie was saying, though, I mean, 592 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 1: like I was really surprised that the chairman wasn't didn't 593 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,479 Speaker 1: have a tighter message today. Um, he left a lot 594 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,240 Speaker 1: of doors wide open and and and left the market 595 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,360 Speaker 1: to kind of figure out for themselves. Um, really what 596 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 1: the guidance was. And I think at the time, when 597 00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 1: you have this really pronounced UH series of events like 598 00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:59,160 Speaker 1: the supply chain problems and the shortages, UH, a flagging 599 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 1: economy and yet a need to be able to tighten UH. 600 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,680 Speaker 1: He could have done a little bit more specificity around 601 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 1: what that plan is going to look like. Well, does 602 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 1: this suggest that they don't know actually where we're going 603 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 1: to be in the second half of the year. Well, 604 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:14,160 Speaker 1: I don't think anybody knows where they're going to be 605 00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 1: in the second half of the year. But you want 606 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,440 Speaker 1: to be totally clear about what the first half of 607 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,600 Speaker 1: the year is gonna look like FED policy, that's the 608 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 1: point you want to You want to make that the 609 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,800 Speaker 1: clear part, so that people can actually you know, bank 610 00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:26,360 Speaker 1: on it. Only a couple of months ago that we 611 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,760 Speaker 1: were talking transitory. The sort of the message from the 612 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,400 Speaker 1: administration was Genie that we'd see inflation come down in 613 00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:36,840 Speaker 1: the second half. Now that we are clearly moving beyond 614 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 1: that thought, they may not know where to land here. Well, 615 00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 1: that's exactly what the message seemed to be, is that 616 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 1: they can't predict what's going to happen. They don't know, 617 00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,720 Speaker 1: and so they are you know, leaving it open it 618 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 1: and so the message came out as you know, an 619 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 1: inability to give anybody who needed it some clear signals 620 00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,080 Speaker 1: as to what they're going to do, and that's both 621 00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,360 Speaker 1: the problem for the markets and politically it's a problem 622 00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 1: for the Biden administration. So, you know, this is where 623 00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,920 Speaker 1: we've you know, today seemed to be a lot of 624 00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,759 Speaker 1: big news but not much clarity whether you look at 625 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,680 Speaker 1: you know, a potential UH nomination for a Briar seat 626 00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,760 Speaker 1: and also what's going to happen at the FETW True 627 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,319 Speaker 1: three ways of uncertainty, and we've talked through it with 628 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:21,840 Speaker 1: our panel, Rick and Jeanie, thank you as always, with 629 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,439 Speaker 1: Josh wind Grove, Rett Ruin and Greg Valier. I told 630 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:27,920 Speaker 1: you we'd bring in some of the smartest minds in politics, 631 00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:32,920 Speaker 1: and it does underscore the level of uncertainty we are facing. 632 00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:34,799 Speaker 1: So you know what, we'll meet you back here again 633 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,600 Speaker 1: tomorrow on sound on This is Bloomberg.