1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: If you live in the region, you only have to 2 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: walk through the downtowns to see what I'm saying. Whether 3 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:11,799 Speaker 1: it's you know, Steubenville, Ohio, Balero, Ohio, Wheeling, West Virginia, Waynesburg, Pennsylvania, 4 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 1: all of those downtowns are hollowed out shells of what 5 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: they once were. 6 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 2: Hey, there, this is drilled. I'm Amy Westervelt and that 7 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 2: was Sean O'Leary from the Ohio River Valley Institute. O'Leary 8 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 2: is a native West Virginian who's watched firsthand what first 9 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 2: coal and then gas did to his community. He doesn't 10 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 2: live in West Virginia anymore, and that has become a 11 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 2: topic of criticism from people who did not appreciate some 12 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 2: of his recent work. Last month, a leary and the 13 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 2: organization he works for released a report that really made 14 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 2: the oil and gas guys mad. It takes on a 15 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: simple question, did the fracking boom actually deliver all those 16 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 2: economic benefits we've heard the industry talk so much about. 17 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 2: The report specifically looks at the region O'Leary has dubbed Frakalacia, 18 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 2: encompassing parts of the Ohio River Valley in Ohio, Pennsylvania, 19 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 2: and West Virginia. As you might recall from every election 20 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 2: cycle in the last decade, whenever people start talking about 21 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 2: the environmental impacts of fracking or the potential of a 22 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 2: fracking ban, the industry has the same response. 23 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 3: The amount of jobs that are created by this technology 24 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 3: cannot be overstated. The United States Chamber of Commerce, for instance, 25 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 3: tells me doing a way with this one technology would 26 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 3: lead to the loss of nearly nineteen million jobs here 27 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 3: in the United States. 28 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 2: The US is now the leading producer in the world 29 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 2: of natural gas and of oil, and that has powered 30 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 2: benefits in our economy. 31 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 3: Tens of thousands of jobs paying an average salary of 32 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 3: fifty thousand dollars. That's what the Ohio Shale Coalition says 33 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:11,239 Speaker 3: is coming to Ohio. 34 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 2: But O'Leary and his colleagues analyzed economic data from before, during, 35 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 2: and after the fracking boom in the Ohio River Valley 36 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 2: and found something else. 37 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 1: Measures of local economic prosperity, starting with jobs, also personal income, 38 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 1: and finally population were underwhelming to the point of being 39 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 1: non existence. 40 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 2: Oleary joined me to explain the report, the research behind it, 41 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 2: and what it means for the region and for other 42 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 2: oil and gas regions. That conversation coming up right after 43 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:52,239 Speaker 2: this quick breaking I'd love to have you just kind 44 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 2: of give people a little bit of the lay of 45 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 2: the land. You know, what is this report that you 46 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 2: just wrote and what were the key findings from it? 47 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, the report was an analysis of the economic impacts 48 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 1: of the natural gas fracking boom in Appalachia on particularly 49 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 1: the counties in the region, the twenty two counties in 50 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: the region from which over ninety percent of the gas 51 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: is being produced. Because there have, as anyone who's paid attention, 52 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: for instance, in the recent presidential campaign knows a number 53 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: of claims about a huge number of jobs associated with fracking, 54 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 1: and so we went in specifically for the purpose to see, 55 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: in fact, how many jobs has fracking created and what 56 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: other economic benefits has fracking helped produce in those counties, 57 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 1: and what the report discovered. What we found was that 58 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: despite an immense increase in economic output is measured by GDP, 59 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 1: which was roughly three times the rate of growth in 60 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: the American economy as a whole, despite that immense spike 61 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: in productivity, the measures of local economic prosperity, starting with jobs, 62 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 1: also personal income, and finally population were underwhelming to the 63 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: point of being non existence. And so the conclusion the 64 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: report came to was that there's virtually no correlation between 65 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: economic growth as driven by the natural gas industry and 66 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 1: actual prosperity positive economic outcomes on the ground. And yes, 67 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: that has stirred up quite a bit of controversy in 68 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 1: the region. 69 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 2: That's super interesting. The big cell for fracking forever has 70 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 2: been this idea that the jobs it creates outweighs the 71 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,239 Speaker 2: impacts that it might have on the environment, or on water, 72 00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 2: or on communities and things like that. What are you 73 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:05,039 Speaker 2: hearing from, especially the people who have been pushing that 74 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 2: idea both kind of you know, oil and gas executives 75 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 2: and politicians in some states. 76 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: Well, when they're not calling me names. Basically, the reactions 77 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: so far, you know, have been pretty fervent. A couple 78 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: of congressmen have issued press releases and others basically attempting 79 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 1: to refute the findings of the study. The problem is 80 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 1: that none of them yet have actually contested any of 81 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: the quantitative findings in the study. Instead, what they've done 82 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 1: is point to other statistics in an effort to basically 83 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:52,040 Speaker 1: offset what the study found. And so, for instance, there 84 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: are probably the three statistics that they point to most 85 00:05:55,200 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: often are that the unemployment rate in much of the 86 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 1: region that we've been talking about has declined significantly in 87 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: the last decade. They also point to the level of 88 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 1: investment that the fracking industry has made in the region, 89 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: the billions of dollars of investment. And finally, they point 90 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: to what they say is the total number of jobs 91 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: provided in the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, 92 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,599 Speaker 1: those who are both jobs that are directly attributable to 93 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: the industry and also indirect and induced jobs, which they 94 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: say in those states number in the hundreds of thousands. That, however, 95 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: has been even before our report, a subject of considerable 96 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: contention in the area for quite some time. The problem 97 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: with the statistics that they cite, in addition to the 98 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 1: pre existing dispute about the total number of jobs, is 99 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 1: that the unemployment rate figures that they cite, and also 100 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: the investment dollar figures that they cite, are immensely misleading. 101 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: In a sense, you really shouldn't have needed this report 102 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 1: to understand that there is no huge boom in jobs 103 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: or economic revival going on in northeastern Pennsylvania or in 104 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: the greater Ohio Valley, because all you have to do 105 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 1: is walk through the downtowns and you see it. The 106 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 1: downtowns there are greatly reduced from what they were, certainly 107 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: at the time that I was growing up years ago. 108 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: And it's really sad to see for those of us 109 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: who are from the area and who have hopes that 110 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: the area can be revived and can prosper again. And 111 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: I despair that so many policymakers and leaders in the 112 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 1: area are continuing to go down the line of pursuing 113 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: the petrochemical industry and possible fuel industries as means to 114 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: get there. 115 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, I wanted to ask you about the petrochemical build out. 116 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 2: I saw that that release today about the fact that, 117 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 2: you know, one of the major companies looking at building 118 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 2: an ethane cracker in this region is delaying once again, 119 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 2: and you know, talking about needing to make it makes 120 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 2: sense economically. But I feel like you're also seeing this 121 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 2: repeat right of the same kind of overblown jobs numbers thing, 122 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 2: when I don't know, it seems to me that they 123 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 2: often include temporary jobs in that and not and are 124 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 2: misleading about how many permanent jobs any of these things create. 125 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: Well, and that's why I mean, one of the points 126 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 1: that I'm making is that the report I said in 127 00:08:56,760 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: an interview that there's not much math going on here, 128 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: which is a statement for which I've since been dinged 129 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 1: by those who won't approve of the report. 130 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 2: But I like to just say the math math in Yeah. 131 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:13,840 Speaker 1: But the point that I was trying to make was 132 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 1: that the report that we issued is not the product 133 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:26,840 Speaker 1: of an inferential model. We aren't predicting, you know, we 134 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: aren't using statistical techniques to predict what has happened or 135 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: may happen. We literally just went to the numbers as 136 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 1: reported to the quarterly senses of employment and wages. These 137 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: are the numbers. And for that reason, it makes the 138 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:48,719 Speaker 1: report pretty difficult to criticize because there aren't any assumptions 139 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 1: being made. There aren't any inferences being made. It's simply 140 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,719 Speaker 1: reporting the facts. Now, the you know, the question the 141 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: challenge for the industry is, Okay, well, how do we 142 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: how do we counter that? And so, for instance, you know, 143 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: they have been saying they've pointed to the unemployment rate 144 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 1: in particular, which has in fact gone down, And in 145 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 1: pointing to the unemployment rate, they usually start with the 146 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: year twenty and ten, which is a couple years after 147 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 1: the fracking booms started in the region, at least in 148 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: most parts of the region. But it also happens to 149 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: be the bottom of the Great Recession in terms of 150 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: employment and the unemployment rate in the US nationally, and 151 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,599 Speaker 1: so that, you know, puts them somewhat at an advantage 152 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: with that number. But there's a more insidious thing that 153 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 1: they're doing and citing that number, which is that there 154 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 1: are two ways that you can make your unemployment rate 155 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 1: go down. There's the good way, and that is you 156 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: can add more jobs to your economy. But there's also 157 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: a bad way, and that is you can reduce the denominator, 158 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 1: you can get rid of workers, can lose workers from 159 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: your economy even faster than you lose jobs, in which 160 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 1: case your unemployment rate will go down as well. And 161 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: that the latter is what has happened in this region. 162 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 1: And so even though they do have a declining unemployment rate, 163 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: it's not because they've added jobs. It's because they've lost workers. 164 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 2: What does that mean when you say they've lost workers. 165 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: People have moved out of the region or dropped out 166 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 1: of the labor pool. When the unemployment rate, you know, 167 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 1: when we hear the unemployment rate on a monthly basis 168 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: announced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate 169 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 1: is literally the number of people who are in the 170 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: job market and without a job, divided by the total 171 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 1: number of people in the job market who The people 172 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 1: who are excluded from that are people who are not 173 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,439 Speaker 1: looking for jobs. And that's why occasionally you'll hear reports 174 00:11:55,559 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: about the workforce shrinking or declining, and in this case, 175 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 1: we're talking about an area in which the workforce has 176 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 1: shrunk even faster than the number of jobs has So 177 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 1: it's really a case of addition by subtraction. 178 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 2: What kind of positive attention have you gotten? 179 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:19,200 Speaker 1: Well, positive attention, and there has been quite a lot, 180 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 1: because I don't know that it comes through to folks 181 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:28,079 Speaker 1: who live outside the region, but it would be difficult 182 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: to exaggerate just how ambivalent people in the region are 183 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 1: about fracking and frankly, how opposed to it many of 184 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 1: them are. And from that sector, we're getting a lot 185 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 1: of people who are basically responding with thank god, I 186 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:49,680 Speaker 1: knew it, and I'm glad someone is finally saying it, 187 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 1: because as I said before, if you live in the region, 188 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 1: you only have to walk through the downtowns to see 189 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 1: what I'm saying, whether it's you know, Steubenville, Ohio, Balero, Ohio, 190 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 1: yel In West Virginia, Waynesburg, Pennsylvania, all of those downtowns 191 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 1: are hollowed out shells of what they once were, and 192 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 1: people know that, and so for them, they at least 193 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 1: feel validated by this because there is another hope out there, 194 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 1: and the hope is that you know, policymakers, political leaders 195 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 1: in the area well hopefully begin to recognize that the 196 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: fossil fuel industry is a pretty lousy foundation upon which 197 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 1: to try to build economic growth and prosperity, and that 198 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 1: this area, above perhaps all areas in the country, desperately 199 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 1: needs to turn its attention to the energy transition and 200 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: to the opportunities that are offered by the transition, which 201 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: are considerable. 202 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, could you talk about that a little bit about 203 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:57,000 Speaker 2: you know, maybe some sectors that are potential job creators 204 00:13:57,040 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 2: that get a lot less attention for. 205 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 1: So it might help to understand a little bit about 206 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 1: why all the money spent to pump all of the 207 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: gas and all of the revenue that's been generated from 208 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: the sale of that gas, why so little of that 209 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 1: money has actually hit the ground locally and entery local economies. 210 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 1: Because then we can contrast that with energy transition related 211 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 1: opportunities and understand I think a little better about why 212 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: there in fact are better and more promising and also 213 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 1: cleaner opportunities to get out there. Yeah, because you know 214 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: the real mystery. I mean, first we have to kind 215 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: of step back and say, well, wait, you know, did 216 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 1: the gas get pumped? Right? I mean the ten years 217 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: ago there were economic impact studies from the American Petroleum 218 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 1: and Institute and others saying that this is going to 219 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 1: create and I'm not exaggerating when I say this, this 220 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: is going to create in the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, 221 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: and West for Rginia somewhere in the neighborhood of four 222 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand new jobs. I mean, that's an 223 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 1: immense number. And the irony is that the amount of 224 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: natural gas that has been produced in the period in 225 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 1: the ten years since those studies is actually even greater 226 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: than the studies themselves assumed, which means that, if anything, 227 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 1: the number of jobs and the level of economic activity 228 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 1: should have been greater than were projected in those studies. 229 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: And so the point is that the gas got produced, 230 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: the money was invested, The industry came to Appalachia, it 231 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: drilled thousands and thousands of wells, it produced an immense 232 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: amount of gas that's now almost forty percent of all 233 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: the natural gas produced in the United States, and that 234 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,120 Speaker 1: gas got sold. And so there's a lot of money 235 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 1: going on here, literally tens of billions of dollars. And 236 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: so the real question is, since the money happened, why 237 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: didn't it hit the ground at least locally in these economies? 238 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: Where did the money go? And so we haven't quantified 239 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: this yet, but we know having gone through at least 240 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 1: what the leakage or potential leakage points are, both from 241 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: the front end of the process when we're talking about 242 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: companies investing in the region, going through to the back 243 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 1: end when the gas is actually pumped and sold. And 244 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: so what we see on the front end when companies, 245 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 1: you know, when an executive shows up in a county 246 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 1: commissioner's office and says, hey, I want to invest a 247 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 1: billion dollars in your county, to which you know, any 248 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: rational county commissioner who has been through three decades of 249 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: economic decline is probably going to respond with gee, tell 250 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 1: me how I can help you. And so what happens 251 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: is that drilling rigs come in and crews start sinking 252 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: wells throughout the area, and that is all money that 253 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,199 Speaker 1: is invested in the area in a sense. And in 254 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 1: addition to that, processing plants get built and other forms 255 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 1: of infrastructure get built, and that's all characterized at least 256 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:28,199 Speaker 1: as investment in the area that adds to GDP. The 257 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: problem with it is that much of the investment actually 258 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 1: goes to suppliers and to service providers and to workers 259 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: who are from outside the region. And so, for instance, 260 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 1: many of the crews that came into the region came 261 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 1: up from the Gulf Coast in the Southwest, where many 262 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: drilling companies are located, because there isn't a heritage of 263 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 1: fracking or drilling in the Northeast, and so many of 264 00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: them brought in lots of workers from out of state 265 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: and outside the region. The second thing is that of 266 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 1: course there are many you know, they need raw materials, 267 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:11,360 Speaker 1: they need equipment and parts to do all of this stuff. 268 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 3: Well. 269 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: Again, similarly, there is an entire ecosystem in the Southwest, 270 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: in states like Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma of companies that 271 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: provide support services to drilling, and so again they relied 272 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,719 Speaker 1: heavily on those services to come into the region and 273 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:33,399 Speaker 1: do the work that needed to be done. And you 274 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 1: can make the same observation with respect to professional services, 275 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 1: whether it's you know, finance, real estate, insurance. In other words, 276 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 1: there's a great deal on the front end that ostensibly 277 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: was investment quote unquote in the region or in the county, 278 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 1: which in fact was the acquisition of services from sources 279 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: that were far outside the county, and so that portion 280 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: of them money would never have hit locally. But then 281 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 1: even when you kick through to the backside of this, Okay, 282 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: we've sunk the well and we're now producing gas and 283 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:13,200 Speaker 1: we're going out and selling it in the marketplace. Well, 284 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 1: you know, part of the promise of economic prosperity was 285 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:20,199 Speaker 1: based on the notion that there were going to be 286 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: a lot of property owners in the region who were 287 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: going to get quite wealthy as a result of royalties 288 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 1: and lease payments from the companies for the gas that's produced. 289 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,879 Speaker 1: And that between you know, that income on the backside 290 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:41,359 Speaker 1: and lots of new workers having jobs and money to 291 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 1: spend locally, that it was going to create this immense 292 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 1: surge in employment in the region as those dollars filtered 293 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,120 Speaker 1: their way through the economy and the multiplier effect kicked in. 294 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 1: The problem was on the backside, on the revenue side. 295 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 1: That first of all, the price of gas that was 296 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 1: anticipated back in two thousand and nine and twenty ten, 297 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: even after the fracking boom took place, was never expected 298 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 1: to fall below about four and a half dollars per 299 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 1: million BTUs, And I'm quoting now, by the way, from 300 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 1: the Energy Information Administration, And at that time the EIA 301 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,920 Speaker 1: expected that after kind of bottoming out at about four fifty, 302 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,919 Speaker 1: gas would prices by the end of the decade or 303 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 1: now essentially, would generally return to anywhere between about six 304 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:39,439 Speaker 1: and seven and a half dollars per million BTUs. Well, 305 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 1: the problem, of course, is that that's not what happened. 306 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:47,160 Speaker 1: The price of gas dropped to at times below two 307 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 1: dollars and have never recovered consistently to more than the 308 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 1: upper twos, sometimes hitting three dollars, which is where we 309 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:02,360 Speaker 1: are about right now. In other words, words, the assumption 310 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 1: of revenue coming in from the sale of gas was 311 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: basically at least twice what the actual revenue figures were, 312 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 1: so you kind of cut that big nut, that big 313 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: economic uh, you know, input of energy into the economy 314 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 1: by half, right off the top. But then another a 315 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: bunch of other factors kick in. The first is that 316 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: a lot of property, it turns out on which wells 317 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 1: are sunk, isn't actually owned by local people. In many cases, 318 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:42,120 Speaker 1: it's owned by companies corporations that may have a significant 319 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 1: local presence or not. And sometimes you know, the property 320 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: is owned by individuals from out who live outside the region, 321 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: and so much of that money does not enter the 322 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: local economy. And then on top of that, you also 323 00:21:55,880 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 1: run into another interesting issue, which is that for those 324 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: people who do live in the region and who do 325 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: own the property and who do receive royalties, many of 326 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 1: them don't spend a lot of that money. And so, 327 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 1: you know, starting with the fact that the price of 328 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:17,479 Speaker 1: gas is only about half or less than what it 329 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 1: was originally expected to be, and then you look at 330 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:24,640 Speaker 1: those other leakage points, it's frankly quite likely that the 331 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 1: actual amount of money entering local economies was only about 332 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 1: ten to perhaps twenty percent of what it was anticipated 333 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 1: to be when the economic impact studies were done. There's 334 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: almost no downstream effect as a result of this economically, 335 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 1: and that's important because the other thing we know is 336 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 1: that the number of jobs that the industry was expected 337 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 1: to create directly never got as large as it was 338 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: supposed to. And moreover, many of the jobs that were 339 00:22:55,359 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 1: created were taken by out of state workers. And so 340 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:04,240 Speaker 1: when you put all of those factors together, what you 341 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,679 Speaker 1: come up with as a scenario in which, yes, it 342 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 1: is actually understandable. There's not really a mystery about how 343 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:16,159 Speaker 1: literally tens of billions of dollars seems to have just 344 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:20,399 Speaker 1: evaporated from the economy. There actually are rational explanations for 345 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: how it could have happened. There are profound structural reasons 346 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 1: why this particular extractive industry, and for that matter, other 347 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: extractive industries, are really lousy platforms for economic revival and 348 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:37,240 Speaker 1: job creation. And it starts frankly with the fact that 349 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: even when you look at Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, 350 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 1: when you look specifically at the mining sector generally, which 351 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: includes oil and natural gas extraction, it's only about twenty 352 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:54,680 Speaker 1: two cents of every dollar in GDP that it creates 353 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 1: that is actually allocated to labor, to wages and salaries, 354 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 1: and that's an remarkably low figure compared to other industries 355 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 1: like construction, for instance, that number seventy five percent. Most 356 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:13,360 Speaker 1: other industries are somewhere in the forty to sixty percent range. 357 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 1: And so if you had to pick an industry upon 358 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:21,920 Speaker 1: which you know, to try to build a job rich economy, 359 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 1: this would be one of the worst ones that you 360 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 1: could pick, even right out the gate. And then on 361 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: top of that you add in all of those other 362 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 1: factors that I just went through. And so that's the 363 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 1: reason why we say there are other, better, more sustainable 364 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 1: choices out there, because when you look at many of 365 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 1: the energy transition industries that are out there, you know, 366 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 1: which include not just renewable energy like wind and solar power, 367 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: but also, and very importantly for this region, energy efficiency. 368 00:24:56,520 --> 00:25:00,360 Speaker 1: We're talking about industries that not only have our much 369 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,919 Speaker 1: more labor intensive and less capital intensive, but we're also 370 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: talking about businesses that in which the suppliers are local. 371 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 1: I mean literally, if you talk about, Okay, we're going 372 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 1: to do a great energy efficiency project, We're going to 373 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: go in and retro fit you know, thousands of houses 374 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 1: or buildings in the region, and in this particular region, 375 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,400 Speaker 1: there are many, many thousands of older buildings and houses 376 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 1: that can benefit from retrofitting. One of the beauties of 377 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 1: energy efficiency is that these are shovel ready projects. You 378 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 1: can go in and start insulating and replacing lighting and 379 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 1: appliances tomorrow. It doesn't require a lot of planning. It 380 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,920 Speaker 1: doesn't require a lot of stuff that we hear about 381 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,360 Speaker 1: when we're talking about, you know, how do we invest 382 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 1: stimulus dollars, we'll find shovel ready projects. Energy efficiency is 383 00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: shovel ready all the time. The second thing is that 384 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 1: energy efficiency, and for that matter, distributed solar and other things, 385 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 1: these are services that are provided by predominantly local suppliers. 386 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,520 Speaker 1: You know, we have local insulators, we have local home 387 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:22,679 Speaker 1: remodeling firms, we have local firms that do windows and 388 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 1: door replacements. And so one of the other beneficial effects 389 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 1: of pursuing the transition economy and energy is that more 390 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:39,719 Speaker 1: of the dollars that are spent actually stay in the community, 391 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,199 Speaker 1: as opposed to dollars that are spent on you know, 392 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 1: paying your electric bill, which probably goes to some far 393 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:51,640 Speaker 1: away utility. And so there really is you know, there's 394 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 1: kind of a triple benefit here. 395 00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 2: What do you think about the I've heard this floated 396 00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 2: a few times, this idea that you could employ people, 397 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,240 Speaker 2: you know, capping and remediating wells, especially as more and 398 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 2: more of the kind of early fracking companies go bankrupt 399 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 2: or you know, just decide that these wells are not 400 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 2: worth keeping productive anymore. 401 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:22,760 Speaker 1: We, yeah, actually are looking at what the employment opportunity 402 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 1: would be based upon the number of abandoned and norphand 403 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 1: wells in the region to pursue that. And by the way, 404 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:36,200 Speaker 1: we're also again talking about an area that is historically 405 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:40,120 Speaker 1: a coal producing region, and there is also my coal 406 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 1: mine remediation opportunity as well. So yes, it is potentially 407 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,439 Speaker 1: a great generator of jobs in the region. And one 408 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,120 Speaker 1: of the things that's most appealing about it is it's 409 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,240 Speaker 1: the kind These are the kinds of jobs for which 410 00:27:56,560 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 1: people who currently work in the fossil fuel industry and 411 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 1: who might otherwise and who might be vulnerable to losing 412 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:10,639 Speaker 1: their current jobs and livelihood as we transition to renewable 413 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 1: resources of energy. These would very likely be opportunities for 414 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,640 Speaker 1: them to take on a new form of employment and 415 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:24,200 Speaker 1: they could be paid as well for doing that. And frankly, 416 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,960 Speaker 1: given the number of wells as there are out there, 417 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,400 Speaker 1: these are jobs that very likely would continue for years. 418 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. 419 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,239 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's one of the most appealing things of this 420 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 1: because you know, we're talking about a region and I mean, 421 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: you know, I'm a native West Virginia, right, I was 422 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 1: born in nineteen fifty six. West Virginia's population in nineteen 423 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 1: fifty six was bigger then than it is now. Zero 424 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 1: population growth in the last sixty years, and that's because 425 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:03,320 Speaker 1: for lack of opportunity, for lack of economic opportunity, many 426 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 1: people move away, and so jobs have always been an 427 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 1: issue in West Virginia. And one of the things that 428 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:15,520 Speaker 1: makes the energy transition, you know, so exciting, especially to 429 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 1: someone like me who cares deeply about you know, my 430 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: home and my people, is that it does offer opportunity 431 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:26,120 Speaker 1: for revival in the region. 432 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:31,920 Speaker 2: I did a story recently around, like kind of around 433 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 2: the jobs thing across the fossil fuel industry in general, 434 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 2: and the fact that I feel like almost I don't know, 435 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 2: almost every story I read about, you know, fossil fuel jobs, 436 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 2: people neglect to mention that the industry was shedding jobs 437 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 2: like crazy because of automation, you know, over the last 438 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:57,160 Speaker 2: five years too, So I wonder what you've seen on 439 00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 2: that front, what impact that has all had. 440 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 1: Okay, this is where the West Virginian in me is 441 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 1: going to come out, because you know my town. You know, 442 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,640 Speaker 1: I lived on top of a coal mine. My town 443 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 1: is dying, and up until recently, it was dying not 444 00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,720 Speaker 1: because coal wasn't being produced. It was exactly what you 445 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,520 Speaker 1: just talked about, Amy, it was automation. Back when I 446 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 1: was born in West Virginia, the coal industry employed directly 447 00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 1: about one hundred and forty thousand people, which is a 448 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 1: remarkable number because the state only has one point eight 449 00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:43,960 Speaker 1: million residents. I mean, you're talking about an immensely pervasive 450 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,880 Speaker 1: industry there. And the amount of coal that was being 451 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 1: produced at that time stayed more or less constant until 452 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 1: the beginning of this last decade. And it's just been 453 00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:00,120 Speaker 1: really in the last eight years that coal production has 454 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 1: started to significantly decline in the United States. But what 455 00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 1: happened during that time is, and I'm not exaggerating, is 456 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,680 Speaker 1: that in the coal industry, ninety percent of the jobs 457 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 1: were lost. In West Virginia. We went from one hundred 458 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 1: and forty thousand workers down to about fifteen thousand workers 459 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 1: before the volume of coal being produced actually started to 460 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 1: go into decline. And that effect was entirely attributable to automation, 461 00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: to the advent of strip mining in a large way, 462 00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:41,440 Speaker 1: to mountaintop removal and other forms of mining that are 463 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:46,360 Speaker 1: less labor intensive than underground mining, which was West Virginia's heritage. 464 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 1: And so the devastation, economic devastation has been happening for 465 00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 1: a long long time in this region. And you know, 466 00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,960 Speaker 1: even when you talk about and that's one of the reasons, 467 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:01,640 Speaker 1: by the way, that when I'm going back to what 468 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 1: I said before about natural gas production being such a 469 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 1: labor intensive business, or rather a capital intensive business, the 470 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 1: flip side of that is it's not very labor intensive. 471 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,280 Speaker 1: It actually doesn't provide much in the way of jobs. 472 00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 1: The ones it does provide, yeah, they're well paying, absolutely true, 473 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,800 Speaker 1: but it doesn't help it doesn't provide many of them. 474 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,280 Speaker 1: And moreover, and this is another issue we frankly should 475 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:35,240 Speaker 1: talk about, is that because of what economists call the 476 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:43,600 Speaker 1: externalities associated yeah with fossil fuel businesses, local pollution, a 477 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 1: variety of issues, it appears and again this is also 478 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 1: hinted at at least in the results that we found, 479 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:56,320 Speaker 1: it appears that natural gas may in some respects actually 480 00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 1: discourage other forms of economic development. 481 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 2: This is weird tendency, I think sometimes for people to 482 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 2: talk about environmental impacts as things that don't also impact 483 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:08,160 Speaker 2: the economy. 484 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:16,320 Speaker 1: One of the things that we're least good at in 485 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 1: economics is in incorporating these these effects that we're calling externalities. 486 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 1: They're only externalities in the sense that neither the buyer 487 00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 1: nor the seller pays for them, but somebody does. And 488 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 1: one of our great weaknesses is that we don't do 489 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:42,120 Speaker 1: a great job of incorporating those externalities into our economic modeling, 490 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,000 Speaker 1: into the economic impact studies. And so if you go 491 00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:49,000 Speaker 1: back again and you look at the American Petroleum Institute 492 00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 1: studies from ten years ago, or the American Chemistry Council 493 00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:58,680 Speaker 1: studies on petrochemicals, now, you won't see any recognition of 494 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:03,960 Speaker 1: any externalities associated with that. They're simply not taken into account. 495 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,880 Speaker 1: And even when they are, frankly, usually what people do 496 00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:11,560 Speaker 1: is plug in some number, like, you know, fifty dollars 497 00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:16,960 Speaker 1: per ton of carbon as a social cost of carbon factor, 498 00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,959 Speaker 1: which is, you know, is better than nothing. But even 499 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,680 Speaker 1: that does not get at the issues that you just 500 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:27,200 Speaker 1: talked about, the noise pollution, the water pollution, the local 501 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:31,200 Speaker 1: particulate air pollution, that that does not get covered in 502 00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:35,800 Speaker 1: that fifty dollars you know, per ton of carbon, social 503 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:40,720 Speaker 1: cost of carbon factor. And in fact, it really does 504 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:46,040 Speaker 1: seem as though, whether you're talking about coal mining or 505 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:52,760 Speaker 1: also natural gas drilling, there's at least prime efacia reason 506 00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,719 Speaker 1: to believe that they could have depressive effects on other 507 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 1: forms of economic development. 508 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 2: That's it for this time. Thanks for listening. If you 509 00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 2: are not already subscribed to the podcast, do that. We 510 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,480 Speaker 2: are working on our next narrative season, which will actually 511 00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:34,000 Speaker 2: be about the gas industry, starting with the fracking boom 512 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:38,360 Speaker 2: and ending with the ethane and plastic boom. If you 513 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,000 Speaker 2: don't want to miss that, make sure you're subscribed wherever 514 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,800 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts. Also, please leave us a rating 515 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,520 Speaker 2: or review wherever you listen. It really helps us find 516 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:52,720 Speaker 2: new listeners and it helps us combat the little armies 517 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,760 Speaker 2: of climate denier trolls that we occasionally encounter on podcast apps. 518 00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:02,600 Speaker 2: I want to thank some of our most Patreon patrons, 519 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:09,040 Speaker 2: Munira Jasani, Daniel Stubbs, Stephanie Cass Luke Austin, Jason Grant, 520 00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:16,000 Speaker 2: Rachel Lower, JJ's Starr Annie b Sean O'Leary, Elliott Glist, 521 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:23,000 Speaker 2: Tom Kapin, Weston Anderson, Rachel see Zebulon Hanley, Dan Walsh, 522 00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,880 Speaker 2: Adam bin Nunn, and Zach Johnson. Thank you guys so 523 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 2: much for your support. If you would like to support 524 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 2: our work, please go over to patreon dot com slash Drilled. 525 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:39,400 Speaker 2: We put ad free podcast episodes there. We will be 526 00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,760 Speaker 2: adding more and more bonus content. Patrons also get access 527 00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 2: to exclusive Drilled merchandise. There's a little something with each tier. 528 00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,160 Speaker 2: Thanks for that and thanks for listening, and we'll see 529 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,000 Speaker 2: you next week.