1 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:04,960 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend or Global look at the 2 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: top stories in the coming week from our day break 3 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: anchors all around the world, and just to have on 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,400 Speaker 1: the program some insight into what the Reserve officials are 5 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: really thinking. I'm John Tucker in New York. 6 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 2: I'm Kaylee Lyones in Washington, where we're looking ahead to 7 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 2: Tim Scott and Ron De Santis entering the presidential race. 8 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 3: I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. What might we learn 9 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 3: about China's ev market through the prism of X Punk's earnings. 10 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 4: I'm callin Heppy here in London. We're looking ahead to 11 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 4: Bloomberg's cut our Economic forum in Doha. 12 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 5: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break Weekend on 13 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Eleve them three O New York, Bloomberg ninety nine 14 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 5: to one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, 15 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:50,240 Speaker 5: Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco DAB, Digital Radio London, Sirius 16 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 5: XM one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio 17 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 5: dot com and via the Bloomberg Business App. 18 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: Hi, everybody, I'm John Tucker. Let's start today's program with 19 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: a federal Reserve Board, the US Center Bank will be 20 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: releasing minutes of its last policy setting meeting, and for 21 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: a look at that and more insight into everything to 22 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: do with monetary policy. We're joined now by Bluebird's Mike McKee. 23 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: I hope that captured everybody's attention there, Michael. But anyway, 24 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: what are we expecting. 25 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:25,479 Speaker 6: Well, this is gonna be a little bit different minutes, 26 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 6: and it may be a little bit more important. Usually 27 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 6: we're pointing out that the minutes come out three weeks 28 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 6: after a decision, and a lot changes in those three weeks, 29 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 6: and Fed officials may have changed their views. But in 30 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 6: this case, it doesn't look like much has changed. Inflation 31 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 6: has come down just a little bit, but it's starting 32 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 6: to slow at the rate of descent. Unemployment is still 33 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 6: very very low, at a like forty to fifty year 34 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 6: record low, and so the conditions are still about the same, 35 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 6: which raises the question of is the Fed going to 36 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 6: pause when it gets to June? And at this point 37 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 6: the minutes may give us a real insight into a 38 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 6: lot of their thinking. A lot of them have been 39 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 6: talking lately and they all say pretty much the same thing. 40 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 6: We don't want to decide yet because the data haven't 41 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 6: been decisive and we're data dependent. 42 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: Well, let me ask you that is really every It 43 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 1: sounded to me like not everybody is on the same 44 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: page at the Federal Reserve, and I'll harken back to 45 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 1: Alan Greenspan, who seemed to rule the Federal Reserve with 46 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: an iron fist. Everybody was on the same page. They 47 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 1: better be or they were going to get slapped down 48 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: by the chairman. 49 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 6: Well that doesn't happen anymore. There's a little bit more 50 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 6: democracy on the Fed board. But the overall impression you 51 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 6: get is that some people are leaning towards a pause 52 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 6: because they've gone up five hundred and twenty five basis 53 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 6: points in the last year, and at some point you 54 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 6: start to risk a recession. But they are all emphasize 55 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 6: that they are very much locked on the idea of 56 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 6: bringing down inflation, and inflation if it doesn't start to 57 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 6: really drop soon could get them to continue raising rates 58 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 6: at least one more time. And we have another CPI 59 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 6: report and a PCEE inflation report before their meeting, So 60 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 6: at this point people are going to be looking at 61 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 6: the minutes to see what it is they are focused on, 62 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:30,679 Speaker 6: whether they think that the outlook for inflation is going 63 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 6: to slow, or if they think the outlook for inflation 64 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 6: is very mixed and maybe they need a little insurance. 65 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: I found this quote from the late German economist Rudy Dormbusch. 66 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: I think, you know it. Things take longer to happen 67 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: than you think in economics than they will, and then 68 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: they happen faster than you thought they could. So my 69 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:55,080 Speaker 1: question is when things turn. Are they turning in terms 70 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: of the inflation front for the Federal Reserve? And when 71 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: they turn? Today happened really fast. I mean, we've been 72 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: waiting for these whatever long and variable lags, seems like forever. 73 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 6: It's probably not going to barring some sort of outside shock, 74 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 6: something with oil or energy, or the war in Ukraine 75 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 6: or something like that. It's probably going to be a 76 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 6: more gradual turn. Unemployment will start to go up. If 77 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 6: it does slowly, then it could jump in a couple 78 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 6: of months. But at this point the Fed is not 79 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 6: expecting that to happen, so it's not going to be 80 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 6: what their focus is in terms of short term economic policy. 81 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 6: And even if it does go up. I talked to 82 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 6: a number of them at the Atlanta Fed conference this 83 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 6: past week, and they all said, we're not going to 84 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 6: lower rates if unemployment starts to rise because we still 85 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 6: need to bring inflation down. Now, inflation could start to 86 00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 6: fall relatively quickly because we've been waiting for over a 87 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 6: year for dropping rents to bring down housing prices in 88 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 6: the CPI and the PCE, and that hasn't really happened yet, 89 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 6: but there are signals that could start happening, So we 90 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:16,599 Speaker 6: could see a relatively quick drop in overall inflation if 91 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 6: that starts to happen. But again, FED wants to make 92 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 6: sure that inflation is on its way down, so they're 93 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 6: not going to be quick to move on it. 94 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:28,160 Speaker 1: All right, If you look at the market betting market participants, 95 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 1: they're betting that they're going to be not just a 96 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: pause at the Fed's meeting in June, but they're also 97 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 1: betting that they're going to be actual interest rate counts 98 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,279 Speaker 1: by the Federal Reserve this year. Why is there such 99 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: a disconnect, it seems, between what the market participants are 100 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: thinking and what the Federal Reserve officials are actually saying. 101 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 6: Well, there seem to be two reasons. One is that 102 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:57,559 Speaker 6: a lot of participants in the markets are using FED 103 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 6: fun futures as a hedge in case we had a 104 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 6: debt ceiling collapse. So that puts some weight on the 105 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 6: FED cutting rate, Fed having to cut rates if the 106 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 6: United States defaulted in June, and so that's one reason 107 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 6: that we've seen some movement. The other is that there 108 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 6: is a feeling in the markets perhaps that the FED 109 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 6: is going to see inflation coming down quickly and cut rates, 110 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,799 Speaker 6: and the Fed's view is we're going to see inflation 111 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 6: come down quickly and not cut rates. But that's going 112 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 6: to be a face off for the coming months between 113 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:35,719 Speaker 6: the markets and the Fed. 114 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: The FED has this dual mandate price stability. That's the 115 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,840 Speaker 1: part where you try to keep inflation somewhere near their 116 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 1: target and the employment part of it. What's the employment 117 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: part doing well. 118 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 6: The employment part is not doing what the FED thought 119 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 6: it would be doing. The FED thought, based on what's 120 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 6: happened in the past, that they raise interest rates and 121 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 6: businesses don't want to pay higher rates, so they stop investing, 122 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:03,840 Speaker 6: business goes down, and they end up cutting employees. That 123 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 6: hasn't happened. This is an unusual situation coming out of 124 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 6: the pandemic, where companies could not find workers. And again 125 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 6: at the Atlanta FED conference, the FED people I talked 126 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 6: to all said that the companies in their districts are 127 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 6: telling them they're going to hoard workers for now. They're 128 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 6: not going to let people go right away because it 129 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 6: was so hard to find them before. So unemployment's been 130 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 6: very sticky. As I mentioned, it's come down to the 131 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 6: lowest since nineteen sixty nine at three point four percent, 132 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 6: and it is it's an open question as to how 133 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 6: fast that might move. 134 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: Okay, how far away are we from the Fed's goal 135 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 1: of what is a two percent rate of inflation in 136 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: the United States? 137 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 6: Well, it's an interesting question because we're a lot closer 138 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 6: than we were. We're at four point nine percent on 139 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 6: the CPI and we were at nine. So it's come 140 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 6: down quickly given the FED restraint. But from here on 141 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 6: it gets harder to do. We get into categories that 142 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 6: are more sticky, harder for the FED to effect, and 143 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 6: so they don't really know how fast it can come down. 144 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 6: Their latest forecast, which was made at the March meeting, 145 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 6: was that we would not get to two percent until 146 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 6: twenty twenty five. We'll see if they change that when 147 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 6: they get to. 148 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 1: June is that carved in stone or can they amend that? 149 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 6: They can amend that, they will amend it. And also 150 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 6: we have to realize that these forecasts that we always 151 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 6: talk about, it's not a forecast. I keep getting reminded 152 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 6: of that by FED people. These are nineteen different outlooks 153 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 6: for various economic indicators based on what these FED officials 154 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 6: individually think is the proper monetary policy. So we tend 155 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 6: to look at the sort of combined number and average 156 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 6: it out and say this is the FED forecast, and 157 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 6: it's it's not really a forecast, but it's the closest 158 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 6: thing we have. So that's how the markets react. 159 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: Well, let's get back to the projection, at least by 160 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 1: the markets, that there could be rate cuts sometime this year. 161 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: Does that if there were to be, doesn't that strike 162 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: at the heart of the credibility of the Federal Reserve? 163 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 1: In one turn they're raising rights and then a few 164 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: months later they're cutting. That's like an admission of we 165 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 1: blew it. 166 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:33,840 Speaker 6: It could be. But FED funds futures are only one 167 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 6: small part. 168 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 5: Of the market. 169 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 6: It's not a very deep or liquid market. And what 170 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 6: you also have is things like tip yields, tips shields 171 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 6: and other inflation break even indicators that suggest the FED 172 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 6: is going to be bringing down inflation. Inflation is going 173 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 6: to fall off. So then it just becomes a question 174 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 6: of does the FED keep rates high because it wants 175 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 6: to make sure it's going to get to two percent 176 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 6: and they don't think that will happen until twenty twenty five, 177 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 6: or do they respond to falling inflation by saying we 178 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 6: need to cut rates a little bit because otherwise we 179 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 6: get too restrictive. Real rates will start to go up 180 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,599 Speaker 6: even farther. So at this point, again it's kind of 181 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 6: an open question, which brings the minutes back into it 182 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 6: in terms of being something that might actually provide us 183 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 6: with some guidance on how they're thinking about this. 184 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 1: As always, Bloomberg's Mike McKeith, thanks very much for stopping, 185 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: but I appreciate it, and just to hend on Bloomberg 186 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: Daybreak Weekend, the Middle Eastern Focus. Final preparations underway for 187 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:41,599 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Guitar and Economic Forum. I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg. 188 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at 189 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,679 Speaker 1: the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm 190 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 1: John Tucker in New York. Up later in the program 191 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: Florida Governorrohan DeSantis and the race for the Republican presidential nomination. 192 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: But first, Bloomberg's Guitar Economic Forum taking place next week 193 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,719 Speaker 1: with newsmakers from the urgeoning Middle East, and for more, 194 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: let's send to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe 195 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:27,839 Speaker 1: anchor Caroline hepger. 196 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 4: John Gulf nations like Cutter may be expected to grow 197 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 4: more slowly in the short term with the oil prices down, 198 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 4: but their ambition in recent years has soared. Remember Cutter 199 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 4: hosted the World Cup in twenty twenty two is looking 200 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 4: now to increase local stock trading to diversify its economy, 201 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 4: as many other countries in the region are attempting to 202 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 4: do so. A moment for unique perspectives from business and 203 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 4: government leaders and Bloomberg anchor and editor at large Francine 204 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 4: Lackwell will be in Doha force and he joined me 205 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 4: now today discussed before the big trip. Look, first of all, 206 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 4: I suppose this is a moment to think about cut 207 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:10,239 Speaker 4: on its role in the global economy, right, yes. 208 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 7: And Ei, Caroline, I mean the question is that there 209 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 7: are so many uncertainties. When it comes to global growth, 210 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 7: it's of course the US China tensions, it's all the 211 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:22,959 Speaker 7: supply chain issues, it's inflation, and really China's reopening providing 212 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 7: this welcome boost to global growth, off setting weakness in Europe, 213 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 7: but we're not one hundred percent sure how long this lasts, 214 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 7: and then this lingering recession risk in the US. So 215 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 7: I think when we go to Doha and Qatar for 216 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 7: the third annual Qatar Economic Forum, we'll try and take 217 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 7: stock on what role the Middle East plays into all 218 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 7: of this, not only geopolitical, of course, these are very 219 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 7: energy intensive countries because of oil and gas, but really 220 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 7: how they're capitalizing on this new world So the region's 221 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 7: sovereign wealth funds, a lot of them, will be their 222 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 7: flush with oil and gas revenue, and they're really trying 223 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 7: to compete to fill the three trillion dollar liquidity gap 224 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 7: left by Wall Street retreat. So if you look at 225 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 7: you know, the warring World, so on geopolitics, US China 226 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 7: with Europe somewhere in the middle you know, the Rush 227 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 7: attentions because of the invasion of Ukraine. The real question 228 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:16,079 Speaker 7: is how do the oil rich nations behave going forward? 229 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 7: Do they buy things up. I know there's a lot 230 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 7: of speculation about, for example, the Katari's getting into British 231 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 7: football and in general, like what role do they have 232 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 7: to play in the next five ten years? Where do 233 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 7: they deploy cash? Where did they see the best opportunities? 234 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 4: Yeah? Absolutely, I mean look just at the Guitar Investment 235 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 4: Authority with four hundred and fifty billion dollars in the 236 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 4: Sovereign Wealth Fund. I mean this is a huge amount 237 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 4: of money. But as you say, although these GCC and 238 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:47,679 Speaker 4: Middle Eastern countries are trying to diversify away from oil, 239 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 4: the energy picture is so important. I mean I remember 240 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 4: at the beginning of my career the idea of peak 241 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 4: oil was kind of crack pots, right, And yeah, we 242 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 4: have come so far since then, and this is the 243 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:02,679 Speaker 4: big issue, isn't it, the energy transition. 244 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 7: I mean I've been a lot around so long. I 245 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 7: used to go jogging. I used to cover Opek that 246 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 7: was my first job at Bloomberg, and we used to 247 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 7: go jogging with the Densaudi oil minister and he'd I 248 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 7: mean he'd say one word and the old price would 249 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 7: move by four or five dollars. I mean, there were 250 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 7: kings and the complex has really changed. 251 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, and so I suppose they're role in terms of 252 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 4: the energy picture. Then how do you think people at 253 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 4: the forum are going to be thinking about this issue? 254 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 7: So it'll be interesting, and we have a couple of 255 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 7: energy ministers, including of course the guitar Energy Minister or 256 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 7: Minister for State Affairs and Energy. He will probably talk 257 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 7: about the energy trilemma. So this is the idea that 258 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 7: they need to balance energy and reliability with security, affordability 259 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 7: and sustainability. Again, this could be a long way off 260 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 7: given how the price of oil has behaved. We did 261 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 7: also have this really interesting report yesterday from the International 262 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 7: Energy Agency, which we'll probably ask the energy ministers about, 263 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 7: because they said global oil demand climb more strongly than 264 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 7: previously estimated this year because of the post pandemic rebound 265 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 7: from China. That beat expectations. But remember the IA we're 266 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 7: really telling OPEK Plus of course, which Qatar is a 267 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 7: member of, saying you should not cut production at this point. 268 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 7: This is a mistake going forward, but if you look 269 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 7: at the complex, maybe they were right to do so 270 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 7: because they also had to readjust their demand for last year. 271 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 7: So again, oil demand never walks in a simple line, 272 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 7: and so it'll be interesting on the ground, I think 273 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 7: to get some of the also hopes or fears for 274 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 7: them to get more gas in Europe through various ways 275 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 7: because of the invasion in Ukraine. 276 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, and also the changing picture in China of course, 277 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 4: which is moving quite swiftly, has done certainly in the 278 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 4: last bits of economic data around China's recovery not perhaps 279 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 4: being as strong as we thought that so many factors. 280 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 4: The region though, is also a very important in terms 281 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 4: of demand for plane makers. We know some of the 282 00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 4: big names are going to be out the forum and 283 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 4: supply chain issues. How does cutoff fits in with that? 284 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 7: So I have a panel which I'm looking forward to 285 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 7: with the Qatar Airways chief executive officer and the Boeing 286 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 7: chief executive officer and now companies like you know, General Electric, 287 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 7: Nike and Boeing have all had supply issues. So I 288 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 7: think when we speak to Boeing it'll be one of 289 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 7: the first times to really sit down after that massive 290 00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 7: order that he got from Ryanair and go through right 291 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 7: you're getting the orders in. We understand that Katar also 292 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 7: wants to impose new roots or get new roots because 293 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 7: travel demand is back a what does that mean for sustainability? 294 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 7: What does it mean for their green ambitions? But two, 295 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:37,520 Speaker 7: is Boeing going to see a supply chain issue exacerbated 296 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 7: because these new orders are going to come through and 297 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 7: will they be able to deliver on a lot of 298 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 7: these supply chain issues? So I think again there, you 299 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 7: know a lot of these big chief executives show up 300 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 7: because they can get orders from these companies. Right, Katar 301 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 7: is a very energy intensive country with a lot of 302 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 7: money to spend, so the envy really of a lot 303 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 7: of our G seven country And I think he'll probably 304 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 7: speak quite candidly about how many orders they can get 305 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 7: and how much they can deliver, and it'll be interesting 306 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 7: to get his thoughts on how we change the way 307 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 7: that we travel. 308 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely. And then there are some other major chief 309 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 4: executives that we have to think about and speaking to Bloomberg, 310 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 4: one of whom, of course is the boss of TikTok. 311 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 4: At a very pivotal moment. 312 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 7: I'm so excited Caroline heid Is sitting down at the 313 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 7: chief executive TikTok and this really has everything. It has, 314 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,560 Speaker 7: you know, the youth wanting to be on TikTok and 315 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,679 Speaker 7: has like the lawmakers in the US saying, how do 316 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 7: we regulated. If we stamp it down completely, maybe we 317 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 7: lose voters because people are so addicted to the product. 318 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 7: One of TikTok's most senior officials in charge of ensuring 319 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 7: safety also had left the company just a couple of 320 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,479 Speaker 7: months ago, and he's been one of the most prominent 321 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 7: officials in this all out effort to convince skeptical lawmakers 322 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 7: and policymakers that the app is safe in the US. 323 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,680 Speaker 7: So it'll be interesting to hear firsthand from the executive 324 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 7: about what he's doing to speak to US lawmakers. Sometimes 325 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 7: they don't speak, you know, with the same words. And again, 326 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:10,679 Speaker 7: Katar will be pivotal for that because we know that 327 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 7: they're also helping Elon Musk for example on Twitter, so 328 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 7: they're you know, they invest a lot in tech across 329 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 7: the world and also in China. 330 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:21,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think maybe it's not even just the 331 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 4: US conversation. The European conversation is so important. UK lawmakers. 332 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 4: They know I've got an or in this also. I mean, 333 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 4: we had the gym Sharks CEO speaking to Bimberg Radio 334 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:33,880 Speaker 4: and TV just this week, a kind of he's one 335 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 4: of the youngest billionaires in the UK, and he's built 336 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 4: the business largely around these social media channels, including TikTok. So, yeah, 337 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 4: it was kind of interesting to say, Tim, what happens 338 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 4: if TikTok were to disappear, let's say, not totally out 339 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:47,439 Speaker 4: of the realms of possibility. 340 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,160 Speaker 7: And also what happens with AI and that transforms right, 341 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 7: everything that we're seeing with with our social media channels. 342 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 7: So what if the algorithm changes, even if lawmakers don't 343 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 7: step in and stomp it out completely. I don't know 344 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 7: how you find me if you have a personal friend 345 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 7: like chat, GPT that you can just ask things. Do 346 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:05,120 Speaker 7: you spend less time on social media? And so many 347 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 7: questions that we're going to try to get to the 348 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 7: bottom of. 349 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, and other big interviews that we have to 350 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 4: watch out for them, thinking about the run down next 351 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:15,199 Speaker 4: week and the big names. 352 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 8: It's eclectic. 353 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:20,400 Speaker 7: We like an eclectic forum. So we're speaking to Steve Schwartzman. 354 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 7: He's the chairman, chief executive officer and founder of Blackstone. 355 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 7: The other one that really caught my eyes general portray 356 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 7: us now he's a KKR, but of course he was 357 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 7: one of the most important generals for the US will 358 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,119 Speaker 7: be interesting to talk to him about foreign policy and 359 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 7: national security. And then I have a third one Steve Munuchin, 360 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 7: again a critical he was Treasury secretary under Donald Trump. 361 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 7: He'll be critical, critical in trying to understand where he 362 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 7: thinks the US debt scene. Conversation is going. 363 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,879 Speaker 4: Okay, Frosine, I wish you luck. I hope you have 364 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 4: a fantastic trip. Lots of reporting for us on Bloomberg Radio. 365 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 4: Report pack great. I'm going to beg for some live 366 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:00,879 Speaker 4: interviews in amidst all of these high level interviews that 367 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 4: you're going to be doing. My thanks to Farci lackw 368 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 4: of course, Bloomberg anchor and editor at large. I'm Caroline 369 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 4: Hepge Here in London. You can catch us every weekday 370 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 4: morning for Bloomberg Daybreak. You at beginning at six am 371 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 4: in London. That's one am on Wall Street. 372 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 1: John, Caroline, thanks a lot, just to hit on Bloomberg 373 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 1: day Break weekend the race for the GOP presidential nomination. 374 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,119 Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg. 375 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,680 Speaker 5: Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg it a active Brokers studio 376 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 5: in New York. Bloomberg eleven three to oh to Washington, 377 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 5: d C, Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg one 378 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 5: O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixteen to 379 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 5: the country, Serrius XM Channel one nineteen to London DAB 380 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,760 Speaker 5: digital radio, and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app 381 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 5: in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. 382 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,200 Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker in New York with your global Okay 383 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,640 Speaker 1: Ahead at the Tom Stories for investors in the coming week, 384 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 1: a lot of talk about Florida Governor Ron DeSantis throwing 385 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 1: his hat in the ring for the GOP nomination for 386 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,680 Speaker 1: president and for more on what DeSantis candidacy means for 387 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,240 Speaker 1: the GOP. Let's end to our Bloomberg ninety nine one 388 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: newsroom in Washington and sound on co host Kaylee Lines. 389 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 2: Kaylee, thank you, John. Yeah, We're gearing up for go time. 390 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 2: Watching closely this coming week when Governor DeSantis will have 391 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 2: multiple events and it's not just him either. Senator Tim Scott, 392 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 2: the Republican from South Carolina, has a big one too. 393 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 2: Joining me now to talk more about this is Nancy Cook, 394 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,119 Speaker 2: one of our national politics reporters who covers all things 395 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four for us. So, Nancy, let's start with DeSantis. 396 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 2: It's a moment we've seen coming for a long time, 397 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 2: him finally officially throwing his hat in the ring. I 398 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 2: know you'll be making the trip down to Florida this 399 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 2: coming week, So what exactly are we expecting is going 400 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 2: to happen? 401 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 9: So we're expecting that Governor DeSantis is going to announce 402 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 9: his candidacy in some way. He has to basically file 403 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 9: this paperwork with the FEC to do that, so we're 404 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 9: expecting him to do that sometime next week, and then 405 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 9: he's going to go down to Miami. We're expecting him 406 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 9: to announce it in some fashion the candidacy, like maybe 407 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 9: through a video social media post. And then on Thursday, 408 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,399 Speaker 9: there's a big donor meet up in Miami. So Wednesday 409 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 9: night they have a reception. Thursday, the donors are getting 410 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 9: it briefing, and then they're expected to make a bunch 411 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 9: of fundraising calls. Really, the purpose of that trip is 412 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 9: to really show that they have a lot of financial support, 413 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:31,679 Speaker 9: and that's the plan. And then we're expecting him to 414 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 9: have a more traditional campaign rally, most likely the week 415 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 9: of June first. I think that's going to be in 416 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,240 Speaker 9: his hometown of Duneed and Florida. 417 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 2: Well, you mentioned that he's going to talk to donors, 418 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 2: and obviously he's already been in communication with them. I 419 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,120 Speaker 2: actually want to read out a quote from a call 420 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,439 Speaker 2: that the governor had with donors this past week. The 421 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 2: New York Times was able to monitor it and reported 422 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 2: that the governor said, you basically have three people at 423 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,919 Speaker 2: this point that are credible in this whole thing, Biden, Trump, 424 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,679 Speaker 2: and me. And I think of those three two have 425 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 2: a chance to get elected President Biden and me based 426 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:04,679 Speaker 2: on all the data in the swing stage, which is 427 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 2: not great for the former president. And yet Nancy DeSantis 428 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 2: has been consistently trailing former President Trump in the polls. 429 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:16,520 Speaker 9: So he's not wrong that in polling, you know, he 430 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 9: is matching up as a very strong candidate against President Biden. 431 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 9: That is right. But I think so far we haven't 432 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 9: seen the Republican electorate really care about this so called 433 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 9: electability argument. You know, they don't care that they perhaps 434 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,399 Speaker 9: DeSantis is a lot younger than Trump, perhaps he is 435 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 9: more electable, Maybe he would do better in Wisconsin and 436 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 9: Michigan and Pennsylvania. That sort of remains to be seen. 437 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,879 Speaker 9: So many Republican primary voters still remain very loyal to 438 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 9: President Trump. He has that steadfast based of thirty percent 439 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 9: of Republican voters and that has really been immovable so far. 440 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 9: And just his relentless attacks on DeSantis have really weakened 441 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,640 Speaker 9: the governor over the past three months. And I think 442 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,239 Speaker 9: that real challenge for DeSantis getting into the race at 443 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 9: this point is trying to overcome that. 444 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, and how does he also differentiate himself when it 445 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 2: comes down to actual policy, the issues that they're going 446 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 2: to run on. When you're trying to get, you know, 447 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 2: primary voters to pick one of you, what's DeSantis's kind 448 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 2: of game plan there? What do we know at this point? 449 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,680 Speaker 9: So I think that DeSantis is really going to talk 450 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 9: a lot about his record in Florida and what he 451 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 9: has done. He has passed a six week abortion ban 452 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,680 Speaker 9: through the state legislature, which is actually something a majority 453 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 9: of Floridians did not want him to do, but he 454 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 9: did it anyway, which will definitely increase his appeal to 455 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 9: evangelicals the anti abortion community. He did a permitless carry law, 456 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 9: which meant that you can in Florida carry a gun 457 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,320 Speaker 9: without a permit. He has made education a very central thing, 458 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 9: and also gender issues around transgender people. I would actually 459 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:53,880 Speaker 9: say on policy he has been further right than President 460 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 9: Trump has, at least when he is president, and Trump 461 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,639 Speaker 9: has been catching up with Dysantis on some of these things. 462 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 9: I think that those things, though, are also not appealing 463 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 9: to general election voters. Those policies are not appealing to 464 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 9: suburban women. We've seen from polling, they're not appealing to independence. 465 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,160 Speaker 9: So I think DeSantis is going to face a very 466 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 9: tough road in a general election trying to tout this 467 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 9: Florida record that he touts everywhere. 468 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 6: Yeah. 469 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 2: Well, of course, in addition to everything he's done legislatively, 470 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 2: there's also this ongoing fight with the Disney Company. We 471 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 2: saw just this past week, Disney announcing they're canceling plans 472 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 2: for a new campus in Florida, not going to move 473 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 2: two thousand employees to the state. And I know, Nancy, 474 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 2: you've done a lot of reporting about how donors are 475 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 2: kind of viewing this battle he has with what is 476 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 2: kind of a behemoth in corporate America. How problematic has 477 00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:43,400 Speaker 2: that been for him? 478 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,639 Speaker 9: I think it's problematic with donors. I don't know how 479 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 9: much the American public is paying attention to this escalating 480 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 9: fight between the Florida governor and Disney, because they're still 481 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:53,919 Speaker 9: kind of trying to figure out like who is Desanta's 482 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,159 Speaker 9: But donors don't like it. They feel like it's anti 483 00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,639 Speaker 9: business to pick a fight with the state's largest employer. 484 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 9: The Disney thing has not been playing well with sort 485 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,199 Speaker 9: of the big billionaires that he will need to court. 486 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 2: So what does the war chest kind of look like 487 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,719 Speaker 2: at this point and how does it compare to some 488 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 2: of the others that are out there. President Trump obviously 489 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 2: front and center, but then we know there's others shocking 490 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 2: for position too. 491 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 9: So I would say President Trump, you know, doesn't have 492 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 9: as much money as he had last time, but he's 493 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 9: still and he but he's never really been extremely popular 494 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 9: with billionaires, and a lot of the billionaire class has 495 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 9: turned away from him. Where he has always really succeeded 496 00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,679 Speaker 9: is in getting small dollar donations, So people who are 497 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 9: mad about the indictment sending him twenty dollars, he has 498 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 9: always really been quite successful with that and is continuing 499 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 9: to be. DeSantis has a fair amount of money in 500 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:47,880 Speaker 9: his war chest from his governor's campaign, and so he's 501 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 9: trying to transfer that money over to what will be 502 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,479 Speaker 9: his presidential campaign. His super pack has also raised about 503 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 9: thirty three million dollars so far, and I think that, 504 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:58,959 Speaker 9: you know, they're going to try to raise more. So 505 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 9: he's doing ok financially, So that's something that I'll be watching, 506 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,159 Speaker 9: you know, sort of that burn rate with the cash 507 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 9: and how that ends up affecting them. 508 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,879 Speaker 2: And of course, you know, we focus so much on 509 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 2: just the matchup between Trump and DeSantis because it right 510 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 2: now does feel like a kind of number one and 511 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,399 Speaker 2: number two scenario when it comes to the Republican primaries. 512 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 2: There's authors as well, Tim Scott officially going to do 513 00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,119 Speaker 2: the thing too. So what are the real prospects for 514 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:22,760 Speaker 2: the senator? 515 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,399 Speaker 9: Tim Scott is announcing his candidacy on Monday, May twenty second, 516 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:30,120 Speaker 9: and I think that he is really hoping to try 517 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,119 Speaker 9: to capitalize on Desanta's slipping in the polls and the 518 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 9: fact that some of these donors don't like some of 519 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 9: his policies. Tim Scott is pretty popular with Wall Street donors, 520 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 9: who have given a lot to his Senate campaigns in 521 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,880 Speaker 9: the past. He is on the Senate Banking Committee, Senate 522 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,120 Speaker 9: Financial Services Committee. The interesting thing about Scott, I think 523 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,439 Speaker 9: is that, you know, unlike Trump and DeSantis, who have 524 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 9: sort of angry messages us versus them really doubling down 525 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,719 Speaker 9: on the culture wars, Scott really tries to speak with 526 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 9: a message of hope and optimism. So his tone is 527 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 9: much different, even if his policies aren't that different. And 528 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:05,879 Speaker 9: I think that's where he is trying to sort of 529 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 9: make his mark. 530 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 2: And he obviously is going to have a lot of 531 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,399 Speaker 2: catching up to do in theory based on the pulling 532 00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:12,400 Speaker 2: we have seen to this point on what the primary 533 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,160 Speaker 2: would look like. But do we know how he would 534 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 2: stack up against President Biden if he were to get 535 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:17,159 Speaker 2: to a general. 536 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,600 Speaker 9: I mean, he has much more conservative policies. I think 537 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 9: that what he has going for him is that he's 538 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 9: in his fifties, you know, he's much younger. He has 539 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 9: an optimistic message like Biden. You know, I think it 540 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 9: remains to be seen if he can get that far 541 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,000 Speaker 9: in Iowa for instance. I know he's really trying to 542 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,400 Speaker 9: appeal to evangelicals. You know, he himself has a deep 543 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 9: faith and he's trying to make that case. He's very, 544 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 9: very good at retail politics, and then I think that 545 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 9: he's hoping that his home state of South Carolina can 546 00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 9: really carry him through. 547 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 2: So when we think about how the larger Republican primary 548 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 2: field is now stacking up, as we were talking about, 549 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 2: you know, Senator Tim Scott trying to message a little 550 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 2: bit differently than someone like DeSantis, who is trying to 551 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 2: outrte President Trump. What is the broad signal here about 552 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 2: the state of the Republican Party and frankly just the 553 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 2: different factions within it. 554 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 9: I think the state of the Republican Party is that 555 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 9: Trump is still dominant. Trump is not really a political 556 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 9: figure anymore in the Republican Party. He's kind of like 557 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 9: a movement. And what I have seen on the campaign 558 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 9: trail is that voters are still very devoted to him. 559 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 9: Many voters are still very devoted to him. Despite the 560 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 9: legal challenges that he faces, the indictment. You know some 561 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 9: people who say that they are exhausted about the drama 562 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 9: surrounding him. He is really still the dominant figure. And 563 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,320 Speaker 9: you know, we've seen in polling he is ahead of 564 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 9: Desantas by about an average of thirty six percentage points 565 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 9: in the polling. That's and he's far ahead of Dysantas, 566 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 9: but like even further ahead of the rest of the field. 567 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,560 Speaker 9: And so you know, whoever is going to join the 568 00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,720 Speaker 9: GOP primary fight at this point for the nomination is 569 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,440 Speaker 9: really has to take on Trump. He is sort of 570 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 9: the big gorilla in the room. 571 00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,400 Speaker 2: All Right, Our national politics reporter Nancy Cook, thank you 572 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,480 Speaker 2: so much. We've traveled to Florida this coming week, John, 573 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 2: things are about to get a whole lot more exciting 574 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 2: in the twenty twenty four race. 575 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,640 Speaker 1: All right, Thanks Kelly. That was Bloomberg's sound on co 576 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 1: host Kaylee Lions reporting from our Bloomberg ninety nine to 577 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,160 Speaker 1: one newsroom at Washington, and you can hear sound on 578 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,640 Speaker 1: weekdays one to three pm on Bloomberg Radio and coming 579 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,720 Speaker 1: up on Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Competition in the EV 580 00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:25,840 Speaker 1: industry rev thing into high gear in Asia. I'm John Tucker. 581 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our 582 00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 1: global look ahead at the top stories for investors in 583 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 1: the coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. Growing 584 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 1: competition in the electric vehicle space, in particular in Asia, 585 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,360 Speaker 1: and for more, let's go to Hong Kong and Bloomberg 586 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 1: day Break Asia host Brian Curtis and his colleague Doun Krisner. 587 00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 3: John we preview Chinese EV maker x Punk's earnings due 588 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,520 Speaker 3: out in the coming week. We wanted to get a 589 00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 3: good reading on the EV market in China now. 590 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:03,800 Speaker 8: Price cuts and falling sales have the potential to undermine 591 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 8: gross margins and the much bollyhooed recovery in the mainland 592 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 8: economy seems to be sputtering a little. 593 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:14,320 Speaker 3: And with that, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that Xpun's deliveries in 594 00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 3: the first quarter will have dropped about forty seven percent 595 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 3: or so, and that will likely give earnings a whak. 596 00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 3: Revenue might see declines of more than forty percent. Tesla's 597 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 3: price cuts are taking a toll on companies, although we 598 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 3: did see very strong earnings from BYD, but will be 599 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 3: interested to see what we get from xpung, Le, Auto, 600 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 3: Neo and Zeker. Joining us now for some discussion of 601 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 3: this is Johanna Chen, Bloomberg Intelligence Asia Auto analyst. Joanna, 602 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 3: thanks very much for being with us. So if you 603 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,840 Speaker 3: take a really big broad look at this, China's beating 604 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 3: the world really in the EV rollout, and we already 605 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,720 Speaker 3: had the byd earnings and they were a lot up 606 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 3: four hundred percent or so, But there are questions that 607 00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,360 Speaker 3: still loom over the sector, particularly over the short to 608 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 3: medium term. What's chief among those concerns. 609 00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 10: So basically, some investors are worried about China's TV industry 610 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 10: because we do see competition is heating up after the 611 00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:18,360 Speaker 10: government unplug the purchased subsidies at the end of twenty twenty, 612 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,080 Speaker 10: and then we also see Tesla cutting prices so that 613 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 10: the other automakers might feel the heat a little bit. 614 00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 10: But I think we are also looking at battery costs 615 00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:34,959 Speaker 10: dropping significantly in the first half of this year, and 616 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,720 Speaker 10: we also see that there are a lot of new 617 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 10: models coming to the market, and also we have consumer 618 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 10: sentiment picking up from a COVID period, so that we 619 00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:52,160 Speaker 10: do see all those like positive factors also coming into 620 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 10: the picture. So I think China's EV sales is continue 621 00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,560 Speaker 10: to be very strong. We do see competition here, but 622 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,200 Speaker 10: the overall industry trend is still there. 623 00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,960 Speaker 8: It's interesting to hear you say that battery costs are 624 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 8: coming down. I mean, China really leads the world when 625 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,920 Speaker 8: it comes to making EV batteries, and we know from 626 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:16,320 Speaker 8: wholesale inflation data that factory gate prices are in deflation 627 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 8: in China overall. Are our auto manufacturers really in a 628 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:24,240 Speaker 8: better position now that the wholesale prices are coming down 629 00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 8: steel not only batteries, but are of the materials that 630 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:28,959 Speaker 8: they need to produce cars. 631 00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:33,680 Speaker 10: Yes, the material costs have been like coming down a 632 00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 10: little bit, and especially for like battery materials for exam 633 00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:42,680 Speaker 10: Holy throm Litheran, costs like spiked in one and two, 634 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,760 Speaker 10: but then in the first half of this year it 635 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 10: came down as much as like seventy percent off November's peak. 636 00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,680 Speaker 3: Doug mentioned how China's kind of cornered the market globally 637 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 3: on a lot of these materials like cobol, lithium, you 638 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,400 Speaker 3: just talked about, nickel, other materials. Does that give China 639 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 3: an advantage forever over other producers or can they play 640 00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 3: catch up? 641 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 10: So China definitely has a huge advantage right now in 642 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:14,240 Speaker 10: the battery material supply chains, Like the majority of lithm 643 00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 10: are refined here in China. And you do see like 644 00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,600 Speaker 10: the other capital costs, labor costs, all those costs are 645 00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:25,319 Speaker 10: much cheaper in China. China will definitely have an advantage 646 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:29,520 Speaker 10: and will continue to have advantage in the coming years. 647 00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,240 Speaker 10: But we do see the other countries. They are trying 648 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,880 Speaker 10: to build up their supply chains. For example, we have 649 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:40,719 Speaker 10: USIRI Infission Reduction Act requires automakers to basically build their 650 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,759 Speaker 10: evs and build their EV supply chains locally in North America. 651 00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,600 Speaker 8: Joanna, thank you so much for helping us understand more 652 00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:49,839 Speaker 8: about what's happening in the auto market in China as 653 00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,320 Speaker 8: we look forward to the earnings in the week ahead 654 00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:56,720 Speaker 8: from x pun Joanna Chen Bloomberg Intelligence Asia auto analysts 655 00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 8: joining us here. I'm Doug Krisner along with Brian Curtis 656 00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,560 Speaker 8: in hongko You can catch us weekdays here from Bloomberg 657 00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,919 Speaker 8: Daybreak Asia beginning at six am in Hong Kong six 658 00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:07,200 Speaker 8: pm on Wall Street. 659 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,880 Speaker 1: John, Brian and Doug. Thanks very much. That does it 660 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,359 Speaker 1: for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again 661 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:15,920 Speaker 1: Monday morning at five am Wall Street time for the 662 00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 1: latest on markets overseas and the news you need to 663 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:20,920 Speaker 1: start your day. I'm John Tucker. 664 00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:21,560 Speaker 5: Stay with us. 665 00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:25,800 Speaker 1: Top stories global business headlines are coming up right now.