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Speaker 1: They're Happy Thursday, or should I call it Taco Thursday?

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Speaker 1: For those of you who were a bit nervous about

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Speaker 1: what Trump is up to, the Taco Trump showed up

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Speaker 1: in Davos, and we can joke all we want about

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Speaker 1: the idea that Trump always chickens out. The fact of

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Speaker 1: the matter is he mostly always chickens out, and the

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Speaker 1: problem is we don't know when he is or isn't.

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Speaker 1: And the question is what do you take to the bank.

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Speaker 1: It is interesting one of there are two things that

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Speaker 1: have happened in the last twenty four hours that easily

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Speaker 1: sway Donald Trump. One is the markets being the one

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Speaker 1: guard rail that has made him change course. The markets

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Speaker 1: collapsed on Tuesday due to fears of this trade war

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Speaker 1: with Europe, the trade deal, by the way, that you

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Speaker 1: already suspended the ratification process of the larger deal that

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Speaker 1: was being negotiated, or one thought was already negotiated, just

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Speaker 1: waiting for the eyes to be dotted in the tees

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Speaker 1: to be crossed. But you had the massive move in

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Speaker 1: the markets. And then you have the fact that Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump doesn't want to let people down who he's speaking

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Speaker 1: to in person. And so if you're in Davos and

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Speaker 1: you heard Donald Trump say I'm not using force and

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Speaker 1: you know I'm dropping all the tariffs, well that's because

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Speaker 1: he wants to please the people who have his ear

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Speaker 1: in the moment. And it all will depend on who

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Speaker 1: has his ear at a given moment, at a given time,

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Speaker 1: and sometimes actually staff, when they're trying to manage his

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Speaker 1: crazy do try to put him within places or with

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Speaker 1: groups of people that they know will be a positive

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Speaker 1: influence on him. Versus a negative influence on him, right,

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Speaker 1: Like he's sort of in a weird way assimilates to

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Speaker 1: whatever the moment is. And he realized everything he was

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Speaker 1: doing was unpopular in Davos, so he wanted to lower

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Speaker 1: the temperature and then everybody would be happy with him,

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Speaker 1: because ultimately, he knows these people don't like him, so

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Speaker 1: the only way to make them like him is to

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Speaker 1: at least make them feel relief. So in that sense,

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Speaker 1: I think he made everybody at Davos feel relief, and

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Speaker 1: the European leaders can exhale a bit. But I will

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Speaker 1: tell you this, and it's why I spend so much

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Speaker 1: time on it in the previous episode, the Mark Carney

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Speaker 1: speech to Davos, really, I do think, is one that

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Speaker 1: isn't you know. It's not like he's going to retract

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Speaker 1: that sentiment. And Canada is already pursuing a go at

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Speaker 1: a loan strategy because they have no choice, and that's

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Speaker 1: the way they view this, and that's the way they

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Speaker 1: believe this. And I think, ultimately, you know, Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: decision to pull back his rhetoric on Greenland, pull back

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Speaker 1: his threats on Greenland, doesn't mean he hasn't done with

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Speaker 1: that it. You know, it sounds like, you know, one

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Speaker 1: of the few European whisperers that can move Trump a

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Speaker 1: little bit is the current NATO head of NATO Secretary

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Speaker 1: General Mark Root, and he seemed to whatever he said

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Speaker 1: to Trump said we've got a great deal, and he

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Speaker 1: seems to imply it's a it. It's interesting as always,

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Speaker 1: you got to see the details. But it may be

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Speaker 1: that whatever it is, it's a it's it's just simply

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Speaker 1: granting the US the ability to do everything that they

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Speaker 1: already had the ability to do. But you know, kind

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Speaker 1: of like NAFTA, if you just change the name or

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Speaker 1: he gets to sign the agreement, then it looks like

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Speaker 1: he did something. So sometimes that gambit works. We've got

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Speaker 1: a great deal for you, and it's the same deal,

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Speaker 1: but you get to sign it, mister president. Right, that's

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Speaker 1: what the US MCA. It is just NAFTA three point zero,

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Speaker 1: except they change the name and gets it. It goes

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Speaker 1: to And this is where you know, he is both

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Speaker 1: an easy mark and a frustrating mark. Right, He's an

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Speaker 1: easy mark if you flatter him, and you you you know,

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Speaker 1: offer him a trinket or offer him naming rights. Or

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Speaker 1: offer him you will nobody's ever done this before type

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Speaker 1: of mindset, so uh, I can't wait to see the

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Speaker 1: details here. But this has the the whiff of they're

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Speaker 1: just cutting and pasting the exact same treaty that gave

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Speaker 1: the United States everything that they already had in their

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Speaker 1: abilities on greenlent. But this time Donald Trump signs the agreement,

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Speaker 1: so therefore it's a new agreement. That's the most likely

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Speaker 1: place we're headed there, but it is a longer you know,

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Speaker 1: you know who the biggest group of exhalers are here

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Speaker 1: are Senate Republicans because they're scared, you know what, in

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Speaker 1: having to exercise any sort of check on him. And

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Speaker 1: you know which is why Donald Trump is not backed

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Speaker 1: off on making sure he's going to endorse against anybody

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Speaker 1: that did him wrong. Right. That's why Bill cass is

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Speaker 1: on the wrong end of a Trumpet endorsement in the

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Speaker 1: Louisiana Senate race. That's to send a message to the

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Speaker 1: other fifty two Republican elected US senators that at any

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Speaker 1: moment in time, he wants all of them to feel

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Speaker 1: as if they constantly owe him their political careers. Some

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Speaker 1: of them actually do right, some of them wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: United States senators wouldn't be I mean Tommy Tupperville, Right,

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Speaker 1: here's a guy that you would have no political career

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Speaker 1: without Donald Trump. And so that's the kind of loyalty

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Speaker 1: he's trying to instill so that they will do his bidding.

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Speaker 1: And so that's why in some ways he's got to

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Speaker 1: follow through on his threats to these other Republicans, no

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Speaker 1: matter if it weakens the Republican Party in the long term,

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Speaker 1: weakens their ability to be a government, to be seen

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Speaker 1: as a governing force if he wants to what he

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Speaker 1: really wants, which is loyalty here, So like with anything

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Speaker 1: with Trump, right, he escalates, he de escalates, but he

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Speaker 1: hasn't necessarily given up that ambition. And there's all sorts

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Speaker 1: of factors driving this ambition there, you know, ultimately leaving

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Speaker 1: a mark. He is desperate to be historically relevant. Well, congratulations,

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Speaker 1: you'res he's going to be historically relevant. Whether he's historically

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Speaker 1: relevant for the reasons he wants to be or if

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Speaker 1: he's historically relevant for other reasons is the open question here.

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Speaker 1: But he is that clearly is one of the drivers here.

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Speaker 1: And look, Greenland looks so big on a map, and

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Speaker 1: he wants to be able to you know, project strength,

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Speaker 1: right he he he sees some of this stuff as

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Speaker 1: symbolic and he needs that symbol in some ways to

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Speaker 1: make them to appease him on these things. But so

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Speaker 1: he's back down from this. But the longer term damage

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Speaker 1: has been done because of what we're already witnessing with Canada,

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Speaker 1: what we're already witnessing with the EU. They're going to

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Speaker 1: do their own trade deals now, They're not going to

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Speaker 1: worry about the United States. And some of you may say, well,

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Speaker 1: great Europe relied on the United States too much. There's

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Speaker 1: some in Europe that believe Europe relied on the United

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Speaker 1: States too much. I think in fifty years we're going

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Speaker 1: to look back and the EU is going to be

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Speaker 1: a real competitor on a number of things. And then

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Speaker 1: we're going to wonder, boy, why did we prop up?

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Speaker 1: You know, we made the EU fend for itself and

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Speaker 1: suddenly the EU is eating our lunch type of thing. Right,

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Speaker 1: if that happens in fifty years, but I think we

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Speaker 1: may make Europe great again. We may end up forcing

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Speaker 1: the EU to have a strong military. And I don't

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Speaker 1: think he cares whether NATO survives or not, And as

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Speaker 1: long as Donald Trump's calling the shots, I don't think

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Speaker 1: NATO is a relevant organization because he is not going

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Speaker 1: to I don't think he will abide by the terms

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Speaker 1: of the treaty if it's not something that he's leading

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Speaker 1: the charge on. If Estonia wants the US help in

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Speaker 1: dealing with Russia, I think Estonia realizes it's going to

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Speaker 1: have to talk to other NATO members. The United States

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Speaker 1: might not be the one that steps up. And that's

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Speaker 1: still a long term concern. So while we have a

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Speaker 1: bit appeased short term and some of you conspiracy theorists

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Speaker 1: out there, you know, maybe wondering, boy, who is it

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Speaker 1: that gets rich off of this stock market guard rail

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Speaker 1: stuff that takes place? Right Trump says something, Kaka Maimi

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Speaker 1: says something stupid, the markets react quickly. But there's always

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Speaker 1: you know, people that are making money off of this stuff,

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Speaker 1: and essentially by trading the crazy, right, by trading off

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Speaker 1: the crazy because maybe they have some inside information on

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Speaker 1: that stuff. So you may end up queuing some of

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Speaker 1: the conspiracy there because some of you may have seen

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Speaker 1: your four to one case. You know, we still lost

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Speaker 1: more money than we got back collectively in the stock

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Speaker 1: market on a one day note. But there's always somebody

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Speaker 1: making money when you see these wild swings, and it's

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Speaker 1: usually insiders that are making that kind of money. But

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Speaker 1: here we are. That's you know, I guess pulling back

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Speaker 1: on this crisis. We will now see a little bit

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Speaker 1: of focus, probably on some other issues a bit. But

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Speaker 1: I don't think this changes the trajectory of whether other

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Speaker 1: countries want to do business with the United States. It

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Speaker 1: is he is making it very difficult to sign any

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Speaker 1: deal with the United States because he doesn't necessarily want

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Speaker 1: to abide by any agreement or be pinned down by

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Speaker 1: any agreement. But the big lesson still is the guardrail

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Speaker 1: that works, and the one that works the most consistently

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Speaker 1: is the stock market, for better or for worse. So

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Speaker 1: who knows, maybe the stock market there'll be some way

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Speaker 1: that the stock market reacts to one of these ice

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Speaker 1: raids in a way that gets his attention to realize

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Speaker 1: he's got a problem there. But before we get to

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Speaker 1: Jacob Fry, you know, Trump's been sort of putting us

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Speaker 1: through the ringer, and I, like I said, I'm still

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Speaker 1: concerned that all of his actions these unilateral actions are

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Speaker 1: going to trigger. You know, political physics is a bitch

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Speaker 1: because for every action, there is going to be an

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Speaker 1: equal and opposite reaction. And that how concern should be

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Speaker 1: that he stumbles stumbles us into some sort of war,

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Speaker 1: because trade wars turn into military conflicts quicker than people realize.

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Speaker 1: And it's still this is still to me a top concern.

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Speaker 1: And that's why my friend I and Bremmer put the

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Speaker 1: United States and in some ways, Donald Trump's leadership in

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Speaker 1: the United States as the top risk for the globe

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. I think these first twenty two

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Speaker 1: days of the year have proven that that is a

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Speaker 1: pretty prophetic decision by putting the United States and Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's leadership is the top risk for twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: But hey, I'm a political junkie at heart, which means

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Speaker 1: and I know some of you got to know me

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Speaker 1: more as a campaign nerd, whether it was at the

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Speaker 1: hotline or whether it was the work I did at NBC.

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Speaker 1: And we've had a lot of we've had a lot

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Speaker 1: of action. I devoted my top five list to what's

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Speaker 1: going on in Senate races and sort of where do

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Speaker 1: the Democrats' chances stand. I think Democrats, I think you know,

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Speaker 1: it's funny. It's one of those issues with the where

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Speaker 1: if you look at the political landscape from sixty thousand feet,

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Speaker 1: you're like, boy, a big wave is brewing. This is

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Speaker 1: how this is one of those times where the out

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Speaker 1: party's going to win everything. They're going to win the

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Speaker 1: House in the Senate. When you look at it race

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Speaker 1: by race, I can't get there. I have a hard

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Speaker 1: time getting to the net four seat pickup four Democrats

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Speaker 1: to pick up the Senate. And yet if you pull

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Speaker 1: the lens back, you're like, oh wow, this national political

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Speaker 1: environment says act So look, A lot of this is

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Speaker 1: going to depend on candidate recruitment. Some of this is

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Speaker 1: going to depend on what kind of primary results take place.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think in the same way that the

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Speaker 1: so called red wave that never happened in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 1: part of that was a Donald Trump issue, right, He

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Speaker 1: endorsed unelectable candidates and a lot of places, including in Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: and what could have been a good Republican knight turned

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Speaker 1: into basically barely acceptable nights since they narrowly got the House,

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Speaker 1: but they couldn't you know it but they couldn't get everything.

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Speaker 1: And I think that that that's a possibility with the Democrats,

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Speaker 1: that they have primaries in Texas and Michigan and in Minnesota,

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Speaker 1: and I want to talk about here in Minnesota, where

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Speaker 1: if the either wrong nominee or the atmosphere of the

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Speaker 1: primary creates a situation where no matter whoever comes out

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Speaker 1: of the primary, it's a divided party and they have

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Speaker 1: a hard time uniting. That could easily hold the party

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Speaker 1: back in its ability to win general elections because simply

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Speaker 1: they either had a messy primary or the wrong candidate

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Speaker 1: got the nomination. And that brings me to Minnesota that

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Speaker 1: I think the most interesting New Canada the last twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours if you're a sports fan, is Michelle Tafoya.

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Speaker 1: She's a former NBC sports reporter. Was on the original

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Speaker 1: I think Sunday Night football team there when it was

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Speaker 1: Al Michaels and Madden. I think even before Collinsworth, it

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Speaker 1: was Michelle Tafoya. And she's been thinking about ever since

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Speaker 1: she left esp left NBC and then I think she

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Speaker 1: worked at ESPN as well. She's been hinting at the

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Speaker 1: idea that she was open to running for office. She

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Speaker 1: has been she is. She is certainly certainly expressed sort

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Speaker 1: of more on the on the conservative media side of things,

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Speaker 1: skeptical of sort of mainstream media bit and skeptical of

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Speaker 1: that more on the culture. Less on policy, I've not

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Speaker 1: heard a lot from her own policy. I've heard more

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Speaker 1: on the woke vibe and that aspect of conservative politics.

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Speaker 1: So I will tell you that in Minnesota, to win,

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Speaker 1: you you got to also be a policy nerd to

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Speaker 1: the Minnesota voter. Minnesota turns out in big numbers, number one,

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Speaker 1: number two. It's just a very it's just a it's

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Speaker 1: a very educated electorate, and so you no matter, you've

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Speaker 1: got to show up knowing your stuff. But they're very

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Speaker 1: open to outsiders. And I think in any other campaign here,

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Speaker 1: I think Michelle Tafoya would be we'd be talking about

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Speaker 1: Minnesota Senate as a as a as a hirrant. I

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Speaker 1: just think in this current national environment, she's swimming uphill.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota is a state that is a lean blue state

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Speaker 1: that wants to be a swing state, and it's certainly been,

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Speaker 1: you know, and Republicans have been. It's it's a little

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Speaker 1: bit of lucy with the football, you know. They they've

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Speaker 1: occasionally won a governor's race. They occasionally win a Senate race.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's been Richard Nixon's the last presidential candidate

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Speaker 1: to carry the state in nineteen seventy two. Even in

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Speaker 1: the forty nine state landslide of Ronald Reagan, Minnesota Walter

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Speaker 1: Mondale's home state was the loan holdout from Ronald Reagan

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Speaker 1: in eighty four. So Nixon McGovern was the last time

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Speaker 1: Minnesota voted voted Republican. So, but there's a pretty messy

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Speaker 1: primary in the Minnesota Senate race between the Lieutenant governor,

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Speaker 1: Peggy Flanagan, who's been endorsed on the progressive side of things.

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Speaker 1: You've got Angie Craig, who is I think the preference

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Speaker 1: of sort of the establishment wing of the party, the

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Speaker 1: Schumer wing of the party. And you know, we'll see

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Speaker 1: how that plays out. Primaries in Minnesota have tended to

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Speaker 1: favor base candidates both left and right. They've historically had

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Speaker 1: convention processes that have that have actually hamstrung Republicans in

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Speaker 1: the past because their convention process will not somebody that's

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Speaker 1: too conservative to win. But they do both. You can

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Speaker 1: you can go through an endorsement process through the state

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Speaker 1: party and then you can also end up on the ballot.

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Speaker 1: And you know, when you look at the candidates Tim Polenni,

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Speaker 1: Norm Coleman who have won statewide races, they have been

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Speaker 1: sort of center somewhere, not on every issue, but seen

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Speaker 1: as close to the center on something. Norm Coleman was

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Speaker 1: definitely more centrist on social issues. I think Tim Polenni

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Speaker 1: on economic issues, he was the original sort of he was.

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Speaker 1: There was something called a Walmart I think he I

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Speaker 1: think he was starting Walmart Conservatism. He was sort of

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Speaker 1: talking about this before Donald Trump came along, talking about, Hey,

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Speaker 1: we've got to we've got to change our talking about

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party, change our connections to corporate America, because

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Speaker 1: there's a working voter here as culturally conservative, who doesn't

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Speaker 1: feel like we're looking out for them economically. So the

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Speaker 1: point being is conventional conservative Republican doesn't win in Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: It got to be a little bit different somewhere. So

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be curious to see there. But look,

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Speaker 1: she's got high name ID and in a neutral political environment,

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Speaker 1: I think we'd be talking about this as a as

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Speaker 1: a really you know, hey, Republicans have put Minnesota in play.

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Speaker 1: I'm a bit skeptical, especially with what's going on right

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Speaker 1: now with the with the political environment there that it's

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Speaker 1: polarized things, Ice is very unpopular. How this has been

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Speaker 1: done is very unpopular. So we'll see. But I think

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Speaker 1: she's banking on when you see her announcement video, I

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Speaker 1: think she's banking on unpopularity of Tim Wall's unpopularity of

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Speaker 1: the state leadership that she hopes can help her in there.

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Speaker 1: But it's a look. Minnesota is one of those. It's

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Speaker 1: sort of I've talked about there are states that that

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Speaker 1: Democrats are hoping to move from to purple, like Texas

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Speaker 1: or a Kansas or maybe in Iowa again, and then

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Speaker 1: there are states that Republicans are trying to get from

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Speaker 1: blue to purple, right, and that's Minnesota. New Mexico's on

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Speaker 1: that list. I think they're going to you know, in

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Speaker 1: the post Trump era, Virginia and Colorado may get put

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Speaker 1: back on that list. So I'd put Minnesota in there

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Speaker 1: as sort of you know, in the same way. I

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Speaker 1: still think the Republicans got to be in a net

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Speaker 1: positive national environment to then do well in Minnesota. But

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Speaker 1: there's got to be some real money and if the

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Speaker 1: Democratic primary gets messy, we'll see. But she's got to

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Speaker 1: go up against the candidate that got the nomination last time,

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Speaker 1: which was a former basketball player named Royce White, who

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Speaker 1: is a little bit out there. In fact, his candidacy

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Speaker 1: was so out there in twenty twenty four when he

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Speaker 1: was challenging Amy Klobashar that National Republicans didn't want to

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Speaker 1: get near him, didn't want to touch. But he's you know,

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Speaker 1: he's he kind of has played the MAGA influencer game

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Speaker 1: a little bit, and you know, he's got his own

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Speaker 1: deep and may not be broad, but deep support among

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Speaker 1: some parts of the Minnesota conservative movement. And he's still running.

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Speaker 1: But Tafoya's got the endorsement of all the establishment. I

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Speaker 1: would assume Trump comes in. He loves stars, right, especially

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Speaker 1: that are adjacent to sports. So I'm sure she'll get

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Speaker 1: the Trump endorsement at some point, which should get him there.

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Speaker 1: So in general, look the Senate battlefield right now. You

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Speaker 1: know every cycle that eventually expands somewhere in the ten

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Speaker 1: to twelve seat arena, right You've got we know, we

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Speaker 1: know North Carolina, Maine, those are no matter what, those

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Speaker 1: are going to be close unless Susan Collins chooses not

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Speaker 1: to run. It's interesting. I've made a big deal about

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Speaker 1: the fact that we haven't gotten to the filing deadline.

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Speaker 1: It's not lost on me that the big Republican super

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Speaker 1: pac that John Thune, the Senate Republican leader controls, went

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Speaker 1: public to say, hey, look at all this money we're

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Speaker 1: putting together to defend Maine. I mean, it's almost like

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Speaker 1: we're going to go public to doing everything they can

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Speaker 1: to reassure her that they're in because guess what if

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Speaker 1: she doesn't run, Maine is off the board. So there's

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Speaker 1: a part of me that views the big pr announcement

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Speaker 1: about their dedication of nearly fifty million dollars that they're

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Speaker 1: ready to spend already of outside money to help Susan

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Speaker 1: Collins is as much about trying to make sure she files.

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Speaker 1: Because in this political environment, I go back, I look

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Speaker 1: at her numbers, it would not shock me if she

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Speaker 1: chose to say, you know what, I'm out. I can't

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Speaker 1: do this, you know, especially if just as she gets close,

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Speaker 1: somehow Trump pulls the rug out from under her. And

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Speaker 1: that's the part of the seat. It's tough when you

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Speaker 1: want to run your own campaign, when you know you

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Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. Speaking of Trump, Julia let low

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Speaker 1: I've talked about the Cassidy race, and in Louisiana, Julia

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Speaker 1: let Lowe officially announce and I have to say, and

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Speaker 1: a few things jumped out at me about both the

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Speaker 1: announcement and then the immediate non announcement from the NRSC

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Speaker 1: and the Senate Republican Leadership Team. The first thing is

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Speaker 1: what Julia letlow said in her announcement video, which included

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Speaker 1: the following line, a state as conservative as ours, we

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Speaker 1: shouldn't have to wonder how our senator will vote when

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Speaker 1: the pressure is on. Huh. This is basically saying we

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Speaker 1: shouldn't have a senator think for themselves. We should know

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Speaker 1: that whatever the president wants, is this how this senator

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Speaker 1: is going to vote. She didn't quite say it, but

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Speaker 1: she kind of said it, right. It's her way of

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Speaker 1: trying to remind Republican voters. Hey, Bill Cassidy wasn't there

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Speaker 1: for Trump when Trump needed him. Now, look, Louisiana's not

429
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,479
Speaker 1: a swing state. There is no Democrats did not get

430
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: John Bell Edwards. That was what Schumer was trying to do.

431
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: The former governor, the last Democrat to be able to

432
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 1: show that he could win statewide. Was trying to get

433
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 1: him to consider maybe he's trying one more time to

434
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 1: do this, but with no fear of a Democratic challenger here.

435
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: The Senate Republican Leadership Fund Right SLF has said they're

436
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,959
Speaker 1: not getting involved, So they're not going to help Bill Cassidy, right,

437
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 1: They're going they're doing everything they can to help John

438
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: Cornyn in his primary. They have said they are not

439
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 1: going to get involved in helping Bill Cassidy. What kind

440
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 1: of message does that send to other Senate Republicans. I

441
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 1: was stunned when I saw that. Right now, I mean,

442
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 1: this is what punch Bowl reported that Republican leaders have

443
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 1: been quiet since Trump's endorsement and that the NSC Senate

444
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 1: battlefield doesn't include Louisiana and SLF isn't expected to get

445
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 1: involved in the race. That is a total Bill Cassidy,

446
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: You're on your own. We are cutting you loose, Which

447
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 1: brings me to a decision that I think he's he

448
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 1: claims he's going to stay in the race. We'll see.

449
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: I think if he wants to win this Senate seat,

450
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: there's only one path to winning the Senate seat, and

451
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 1: it's to run as an independent. It is to pull

452
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: a Lisa Murkowski and just say hey, I ain't running

453
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 1: in the primary, but I want all voters because the state,

454
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 1: you know, again, this used to be Louisiana used to

455
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 1: hold very small d democratic primary elections. Everybody voted in

456
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,200
Speaker 1: the primary. Top two if nobody received fifty percent, would

457
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: meet in a runoff, if you will, it was basically

458
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 1: an all party general election. They changed the rules specifically

459
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 1: to make sure Cassidy had to face Republicans only in

460
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: a primary. This was all done since he voted to

461
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: convict Trump after January sixth. You know, it was the

462
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 1: same thing that was essentially orchestrated to do with Lisa Murkowski.

463
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 1: At least I'll go ahead and run as a ride in.

464
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: And I've always said, you know, you know how how

465
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: untouchable she is m u r Kowski. She won as

466
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:13,719
Speaker 1: a ride in and her last name's Murkowski. It won smith, right,

467
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: that's how politically powerful she is in her own in

468
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 1: the state of Alaska. So we'll see what happens there.

469
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 1: There's been no hints I've like, I've told you the

470
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 1: only hints I've ever gotten about Cassidy being intrigued about

471
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 1: running as independent is when he flirted a bit with

472
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: the no Labels crowd when they were looking for a

473
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 1: presidential candidate in twenty four I think he took a call.

474
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,959
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think he reached out to ask questions.

475
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 1: I think he just accepted an outreach and certainly heard

476
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: some people out. But if there are a lot of

477
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: Senate Republican incumbents I think who quietly hope Cassidy doesn't

478
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 1: back down and that he does doesn't just allow himself

479
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 1: to be the Washington generals to the Harlem globetrotters in

480
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 1: a primary, but instead really do that. And it's look,

481
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 1: his only chance is if he can expand the electorate.

482
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: And the only way he can expand the voting electorate

483
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 1: is if he gets out of the of the Republican primary.

484
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: So we shall see. There a few other campaign notes.

485
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 1: I think our friend Paul Finebaum, mister Alabama SEC promote,

486
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,719
Speaker 1: the unofficial promoter of SEC football for ESPN. I kid

487
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: Paul if he's still considering running for the US Senate

488
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 1: in Alabama, he just he's in trouble because Donald Trump

489
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 1: has now picked the candidate. So with Donald Trump's decision

490
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: to endorse Barry Moore, the congressman in that primary, even

491
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 1: though a recent poll actually had him in second, not

492
00:30:54,760 --> 00:31:00,239
Speaker 1: in first, I you know, I wonder if that if

493
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: that changes. I think fine Bam thought that again a

494
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 1: little bit of a sports celebrity, that that might get

495
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: the president's attention. Maybe he did do some outreach and

496
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: they weren't interested. It was, you know, in that brief

497
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: period where fine Baum was trying to establish his credentials

498
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: as a conservative Republican. He said he claimed he voted

499
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 1: for Trump and then he was a Trump supporter, So

500
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: clearly he was putting up the trial balloon to see

501
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: if he would get any sort of feedback the other way.

502
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 1: We'll find out filing deadline soon, so we'll get there.

503
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 1: But it's interesting that Trump's already endorsed. Fine Bomb's not

504
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 1: even being tested anymore. So I know he isn't officially

505
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 1: announced that he's out because Calsh still has his has

506
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 1: the You can still trade on whether fine Baum is

507
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: going to run or not. But if you just look

508
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 1: at the inaction, fine Boum himself had said he would

509
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 1: wait till after the college football playoff and his ESPN

510
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: duties were done for this season before fully contemplating this,

511
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: So we'll see if that has changed at all. Two

512
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 1: other notes that I've been wanting to get to but haven't.

513
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 1: Twelve states applied to be first in the nation for

514
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: the Democrats in twenty twenty eight, and I thought I'd

515
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 1: quickly go through them. Out of the West, it was

516
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: Nevada and New Mexico. Out of the South, Georgia, North Carolina,

517
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 1: South Carolina, Tennessee. In Virginia. Out of the midwest, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan,

518
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 1: and out of the east, New Hampshire and Delaware all

519
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 1: want to be part of the first four, the early

520
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: early process, to get into the early window where you

521
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 1: would get a variety of candidates. Here, look, it's not

522
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: looking good for Iowa. As many of you know, I'm

523
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: a huge proponent that Iowa of all of the potential

524
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: first in the nation states that want to get back,

525
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 1: that they ought to just go back to Iowa. That

526
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 1: iowalast time I checked Iowa was was was the launching

527
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 1: pad for Barack Obama. So I've always thought the dumbest

528
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 1: argument against Iowa is that Iowa was too white, and

529
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: considering all of the problems the Democratic Party has in

530
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: reaching out to rural America, because what rural America's white.

531
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 1: So if you are immediately sending the message, oh, you know,

532
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: we don't want a rural state that's too white, well

533
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: you're you're basically just sent a message to all of

534
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 1: rural America outside of the rural blacks in the South

535
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 1: and rural Hispanics in the Southwest, that you're not interested

536
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 1: in their vote. And I just think it's a it's

537
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 1: a it's been a terrible way this has been messaged.

538
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: The time story that had it. It's like just a

539
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: they have they have got to recalibrate. Uh, if you

540
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 1: say you don't want caucus systems, say that, but you

541
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 1: better come up with a better reason than Iowa is

542
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 1: just too white. Because if you're a political party and

543
00:33:56,040 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: you've decided that, you know, you can't participate in certain

544
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: regions because of demographic makeup, then you're just conceding defeat

545
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 1: and you don't want to be a national political party.

546
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 1: So look, do I think Iowa's uphill? I do, even

547
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,280
Speaker 1: though the irony is that Iowa. You know, if you're progressive,

548
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 1: if it wasn't for Iowa, Bernie Sanders wouldn't be relevant.

549
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 1: If you're a Barack Obama fan, if it wasn't for Iowa,

550
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: Barack Obama might not have been President of the United States.

551
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,800
Speaker 1: Iowa's been pretty good to the Democratic Party. Without Iowa,

552
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 1: they wouldn't have, you know, had a Jimmy Carter. So

553
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 1: it's a head scratcher to me, the anger at Iowa

554
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 1: that's there. I think it's just a if you want

555
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: my opinion, there's a lot of former Clinton staffers. I

556
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 1: was never been good to the Clintons. Right when Bill

557
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 1: Clinton ran in ninety two, an Iowa Democrat named Tom

558
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 1: Harkin was running, so he skipped Iowa. When Hillary Clinton

559
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 1: obviously her candidacy got up ended in two thousand and

560
00:34:56,760 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 1: eight because she lost Iowa and then she almost you know,

561
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 1: it all depends on who you talk to in twenty sixteen,

562
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 1: did she win Iowa lose Iowa. Fact is, we're not

563
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 1: one hundred percent sure. But again Iowa put Bernie Sanders

564
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 1: on the map. So I've always thought the residual anger

565
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: at Iowa is due to staffers and strategists who were

566
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,439
Speaker 1: all with who were all working for Clinton, who also

567
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 1: are our big have a lot of influence inside the DNC,

568
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 1: who are just mad that Iowa didn't go the way

569
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 1: they wanted to go. But it's been surprising to me

570
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 1: that some of the Obama era folks haven't fought harder

571
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 1: to defend Iowa or to promote Iowa. But if you're

572
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: not going to do Iowa, you're going to need a

573
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: rural state to be first. And you know, you start

574
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 1: to look at this list, New Mexico jumps out at

575
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,399
Speaker 1: me as I think a fascinating potential. First in the nation,

576
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: there's a I do think there's actually some ideological diversity.

577
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 1: Rural New Mexico finly has a red lean to it.

578
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 1: The second congressional district, which is the most rural part

579
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 1: rural district of the three districts, there is a swing district,

580
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: and so yeah, I think there's something. You know, My

581
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 1: only concern about New Mexico's first is that, you know,

582
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 1: if you can win Albuquerque, you can win the state. Right.

583
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 1: I don't think it's ever good, you know. I think

584
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 1: that's the knock on Nevada that ultimately, if you can

585
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 1: win Vegas, you win the you win the caucuses. You

586
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 1: don't want to I don't know if that's a good test, right.

587
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 1: You know, the way the Iowa system works is you

588
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 1: can't just win to Moine and win the state. Trust me,

589
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton tried it twice and it didn't work. And

590
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: that's what I think made it a bit more of

591
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:49,320
Speaker 1: a better test. But that that jumps out at me.

592
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: I think the fact that Georgia, it's interesting that Georgia,

593
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 1: North Carolina and Virginia, right, these are two swing states

594
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 1: and one former swing state that is now leaning blue.

595
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 1: I think the downside of Virginia's Northern Virginia right, too

596
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 1: many professional voters in that it would might get a

597
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 1: little insider and all of that. So that probably is

598
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 1: a knock on Virginia. And North Carolina might simply be

599
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:18,320
Speaker 1: too expensive, although I like the diversity, the geographic diversity

600
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: of North Carolina. That could be intriguing and both it

601
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 1: has demographic diversity, geographic diversity, socioeconomic diversity. But it's a

602
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 1: big state, and do you want a big state a

603
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 1: top ten state? Right? I think that's the knock on Michigan,

604
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:37,919
Speaker 1: you know, the first four being you know, frankly five

605
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 1: congressional districts or less strikes me as sort of what

606
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 1: should be the cap because the whole idea of having

607
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 1: a small state go first is that it means a

608
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 1: guy like Howard Dean in two thousand and four, who

609
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: didn't have a national fundraising base, could raise enough money

610
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 1: to be competitive on Iowa. If he could be competitive Iowa,

611
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,800
Speaker 1: then that could serve as a launching had. So having

612
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: small states right, the barrier to entry is simply lower,

613
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 1: and it allows a former mayor of South Bend to

614
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 1: try to jump in and things like that, where if

615
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 1: you have a Michigan, a North Carolina, a Georgia, one

616
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 1: of the growing one of the larger states or growing states,

617
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 1: big super pac money can just overwhelm Right. I'm not

618
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: saying big money doesn't matter in Iowa, but in some

619
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 1: ways you don't. It isn't It doesn't cinch the game

620
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 1: the way it might in a larger state there. So look,

621
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 1: I'd love to hear from you. What what states? You know,

622
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 1: as I've said, this is where I dork out. I

623
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: always thought that we had a pretty good I thought

624
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,799
Speaker 1: the first three were perfect. I you know, I don't

625
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 1: want to get my friend John Ralston Matt, you know

626
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 1: I would. If you're asking me which western small state

627
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 1: should go first. Should it be Nevada, Should it be Oregon?

628
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,359
Speaker 1: Should it be New Mexico? Maybe you could make an

629
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 1: argument for Utah. I like New Mexico the best. I

630
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 1: think it it you want to have a Hispanic popular,

631
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 1: you know, a state with a large Hispanic population. That

632
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: was one of the one of the rationales for Nevada.

633
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 1: But there's also you know, it's not just sort of

634
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 1: a two you know, it's a it's a two county

635
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 1: state in Nevada essentially, and that's less so in New Mexico.

636
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,479
Speaker 1: It's still you know, still Albuquerque is still a big chunk,

637
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:32,839
Speaker 1: but there's some there. I think it might be an

638
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 1: interesting Western test. I'm sorry to see Kansas not put there,

639
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: not apply here. I think Kansas could have been an

640
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 1: interesting first in the nation. I think it's kind of

641
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: a growing state. And if I had been see this

642
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,840
Speaker 1: is the way. If I were the running a political party,

643
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 1: I would also want to use my first in the

644
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 1: nation calendar as a way to grow in a state. Right,

645
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 1: I've always believed that i w being first in the

646
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 1: nation made it a swing state that naturally demographically Iowa

647
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 1: without it, without being first in the nation, without the

648
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: national attention, you know, it was going to lean in

649
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,800
Speaker 1: the direction of where most rural voters will lean on

650
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,839
Speaker 1: a given time. Right, it was populous democrat at a time,

651
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: then it can become populist Republican. But there's something about

652
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 1: putting a national spotlight on a state that actually has

653
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 1: voters behave more like swing voters. And I think you

654
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 1: saw that with Iowa being in the national spotlight for

655
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 1: that sort of thirty to forty year period. Between sort

656
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:36,919
Speaker 1: of seventy six and twenty sixteen. That really did sort

657
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 1: of change the nature of the voter in Iowa and

658
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: made them realize, hey, they took their vote a little

659
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 1: extra seriously and really ended up hearing in hearing about

660
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,359
Speaker 1: politics in stereo in a way that many many state

661
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 1: residents don't. So if I were the DNC, I'd be

662
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 1: trying to figure out in my calendar, what is this.

663
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 1: What is a first in the nation state where having

664
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,360
Speaker 1: a lot of Democrats run around and organize will actually

665
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 1: help you in the future. Well, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska all

666
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 1: fall into that category. There are potentially states Democrats could

667
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 1: improve their standing in if you had a lot of

668
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 1: If you had a first, if it was one of

669
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: the first four, you'd have a lot more organizing take place,

670
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: You'd have a lot more resources being put into the state,

671
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 1: and lo and behold, you might have a more competitive

672
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 1: landscape in midterm elections in those states. So that would

673
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 1: be one way I think about this. And in the

674
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 1: South that's where I would I know, I'm sorry to

675
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 1: see Mississippi not apply for something like this. I'd be

676
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 1: looking at a Mississippi or a South Carolina on that

677
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 1: front as a way to do that. Of course, one

678
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 1: could argue push back on me and say, well, South

679
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:51,800
Speaker 1: Carolina has been in the first four and it's not

680
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 1: like Democrats have improved their standing in South Carolina. It'd

681
00:41:55,160 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: be a fair counterpoint. But in general, getting national Democrats

682
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 1: to spend more time in some of these red leading

683
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 1: states I think would help them, and it should be

684
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 1: the same mindset for Republicans. You know, if I were

685
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: them and they're trying to get Minnesota, I'd be leaning

686
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 1: in on maybe get Minnesota in your first four if

687
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:18,720
Speaker 1: they want to try to improve I think the reason

688
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 1: they've done better in Nevada is that Nevada is in

689
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 1: there first four and if New Mexico gets part of

690
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 1: the first four and Republican. If I were Republicans, I'd

691
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: jump on that in a heartbeat to help their presidential

692
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 1: candidates talk to Latino voters better. So it all depends.

693
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 1: If you're a party leader and you're trying to build

694
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 1: your party, I think you should use your primary calendar

695
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 1: as a way to grow your party. I have a

696
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:49,360
Speaker 1: feeling that the DNC may use their primary calendar just

697
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 1: simply to try to figure out what's the best way

698
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 1: to find the most electable nominee, which is also a

699
00:42:55,960 --> 00:43:01,840
Speaker 1: very viable rationale. Don't get me wrong, but that's trading

700
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 1: sort of long term future for short termism. That would

701
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:11,360
Speaker 1: be the one thing man. Having good life insurance is

702
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 1: incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I was sixteen

703
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: when my father passed away. We didn't have any money.

704
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,640
Speaker 1: He didn't leave us in the best shape. My mother

705
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 1: single mother, now widow. Myself sixteen trying to figure out

706
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 1: how am I going to pay for college and lo

707
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 1: and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy that

708
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 1: we found wasn't a lot, but it was important at

709
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 1: the time, and it's why I was able to go

710
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 1: to college. Little did he know how important that would

711
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 1: be in that moment. Well, guess what. That's why I

712
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 1: am here to tell you about Etho's life. They can

713
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 1: provide you with peace of mind knowing your family is

714
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Speaker 1: protected even if the worst comes to pass. Ethos is

715
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 1: an online platform that makes getting life insurance fast and easy,

716
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: all designed to protect your family's future in minutes, not months.

717
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Speaker 1: There's no complicated process, and it's one hundred percent online.

718
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:06,879
Speaker 1: There's no medical exam require you just answer a few

719
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,239
Speaker 1: health questions online, you can get a quote in as

720
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 1: little as ten minutes, and you can get same day

721
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:15,360
Speaker 1: coverage without ever leaving your home. You can get up

722
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:17,839
Speaker 1: to three million dollars in coverage, and some policies start

723
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:19,800
Speaker 1: as low as two dollars a day that would be

724
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 1: billed monthly. As of March twenty twenty five, Business Insider

725
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 1: named Ethos the number one no medical exam instant life

726
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:31,720
Speaker 1: insurance provider. So protect your family with life insurance from Ethos.

727
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Speaker 1: Get your free quote at ethos dot com slash chuck.

728
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:40,720
Speaker 1: So again, that's Ethos dot com slash chuck. Application times

729
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 1: may vary and the rates themselves may vary as well,

730
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 1: but trust me, life insurance is something you should really

731
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 1: think about, especially if you've got a growing family. So

732
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 1: with that, let's let's dive into some questions. Ask Chuck.

733
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:03,800
Speaker 1: Then I'm going to start on the issue of Greenland,

734
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 1: and let me start here with Chase from Little Rock,

735
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:13,320
Speaker 1: who is hashtags ash Chuck five timer club. I love it,

736
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 1: and he writes this, he said, and he included a

737
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:21,879
Speaker 1: letter he got from Senator Cotton. He says, Chuck, I'm

738
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 1: forwarding you the response I received from Senator Tom Cotton

739
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 1: I had written to him objecting to Trump's provocations towards

740
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 1: Greenland and our NATO allies. His reply doesn't address NATO

741
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 1: or the issue of provoking a sovereign ally at all. Instead,

742
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 1: he pivots into a strange history lesson about shipping lanes

743
00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 1: in the US purchase of the Virgin Islands from Denmark.

744
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,399
Speaker 1: Why are so many senators unwilling to challenge Trump even

745
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 1: on matters of foreign policy? Whether stakes are so high?

746
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:51,799
Speaker 1: It's interesting. That's a very specific answer that he gave.

747
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 1: Let me read you. You included the letter, so I'm

748
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:56,480
Speaker 1: going to read it, and it says, dear Chase, thank

749
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 1: you for contacting me about President Trump's interest in acquiring

750
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 1: Greenland from Denmark. It's good to hear from you, as

751
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 1: always as if I'm wondering if you guys are frequent

752
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:10,480
Speaker 1: frequent dow frequent correspondence. And he adds this, I've long

753
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 1: believed that a Greenland closely aligned with the United States

754
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 1: and closed off to Russian China as a vital national interest.

755
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 1: Period I'm going to annotate the latter as we go.

756
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 1: That's already the case. Greenland is closely aligned with the

757
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:25,919
Speaker 1: United States and it is closed off to Russian China.

758
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:29,720
Speaker 1: This view is consistent with a long history of American statesmen,

759
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 1: including President Truman, who in the nineteen forties advocated for

760
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:37,760
Speaker 1: purchasing the territory. Fact check true. I also have publicly

761
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:40,439
Speaker 1: advocated for the purchase of Greenland since twenty nineteen, which

762
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:42,359
Speaker 1: I explained at the time in a New York Times.

763
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 1: I bet wouldn't be the first time that we've acquired

764
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 1: territory from Denmark either. President Wilson bought the Danish West

765
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 1: Indies more than a century ago. We now know them

766
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 1: today as the US Virgin Islands. Greenland is very attractive

767
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 1: to Russian China for several reasons. Its location in the Arctic,

768
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 1: its importance to our missile defense systems, it's access to

769
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:03,799
Speaker 1: the routes, and its wealth of rare earth minerals necessary

770
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 1: for a defense industry, among others. China's attempted to gain

771
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 1: influence in the territory, for example, by trying to acquire

772
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:12,320
Speaker 1: an old US naval base. Similarly, Russian presence in the

773
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 1: Arctic continues to grow and present a challenge to our nation.

774
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,440
Speaker 1: We must not allow our adversaries to exercise control in

775
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 1: such a crucial region. I understand the concern among some

776
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,279
Speaker 1: people about President Trump's comments about Greenland, but I would

777
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 1: observe that he never rules out any option related to

778
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 1: any foreign policy issue, a common practice among past presidents too.

779
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,760
Speaker 1: I'm simply pleased to see the administration officials are engaging

780
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:35,959
Speaker 1: on this issue with proper concern for our national security. Look,

781
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: I think he gave you a thoughtful answer, Chase, and

782
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 1: I do think he believes what he wrote in there.

783
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 1: I think it's interesting what he wrote and what he didn't. Right,

784
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:50,319
Speaker 1: he's basically saying, don't believe everything you hear from Trump,

785
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 1: but he's trying to do it in the most polite

786
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:57,360
Speaker 1: way possible, which is kind of how Cotton is operated.

787
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:01,880
Speaker 1: You're right, I think. Look, Tom Cotton is the senator

788
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 1: from Arkansas, so in his voters I think like Donald

789
00:48:07,239 --> 00:48:09,879
Speaker 1: Trump more than they like Tom Cotton. One thing Tom

790
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 1: Cotton is is self aware, and I think he enjoys

791
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:14,799
Speaker 1: being a US Senator. I think he'd like to run

792
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:17,320
Speaker 1: for president someday, so I don't think he wants to

793
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 1: be on the outside of wherever the Republican Party is today.

794
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 1: So he is consistently I think more so than even

795
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:27,800
Speaker 1: Lindsay Graham tried to find ways to look authentically supportive

796
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:30,839
Speaker 1: of Trump rather than coming across frankly like Lindsey Graham,

797
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 1: which is a bit inauthentic, and how he has you know,

798
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 1: sort of shifted his alliances over the years when it

799
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:42,399
Speaker 1: comes to Trump. But I do want to pick out

800
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:45,719
Speaker 1: that you know, China has attempted, but China didn't do

801
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 1: it because of our relationship with Denmark and because of

802
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 1: our relationship with Greenland, and because of NATO. That's why

803
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: it didn't happen. So it is everything he says in

804
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:03,279
Speaker 1: here is it's true, except it's already the case, right,

805
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 1: We already have that kind of near autonomy on Greenland

806
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:14,240
Speaker 1: on that front. So yes, it's true. With the melting,

807
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,760
Speaker 1: with the melting ice thanks to climate change, the Arctic

808
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 1: is being navigated and there is a real fight for it.

809
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 1: And I think it's you know in this, you know,

810
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 1: supremacy in the Arctic. This is one of the great

811
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:30,760
Speaker 1: one of the great powers issues. I hope the United

812
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 1: States plays the role of Our job is to make

813
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 1: sure no country dominates the Arctic, so that there are

814
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:41,279
Speaker 1: open shipping lanes and maybe this becomes an easier way

815
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:44,279
Speaker 1: to move goods and services. Maybe there are some, but

816
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:48,479
Speaker 1: you know, the right now it feels like a land

817
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:51,600
Speaker 1: grab that everybody is the way they're talking about it,

818
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 1: rather than protecting it from nefarious adversaries. So anyway, I

819
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 1: I'm very impressed with the tone of the letter. It is.

820
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 1: It is to me very thoughtful, nothing that would get

821
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 1: him in political trouble with the base of the Republican Party.

822
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 1: And it certainly comes across uh as as something that

823
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:23,840
Speaker 1: that that Cotton would be for so in that sense,

824
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 1: but I you know, I think I think cotton situation

825
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 1: is different than others, and I do think he's in

826
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 1: a state that is probably much more pro I think

827
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:44,799
Speaker 1: Cotton is a bit more of an institutionalist than he's

828
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:53,839
Speaker 1: going to let on because of the Arkansas constituency. Next question,

829
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 1: also on Greenland. The situation with Greenland seems like a

830
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 1: prime example of Trump being driven by personal pathologies. I know,

831
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:02,800
Speaker 1: foreign government's build psychological profiles of leaders. Do US political

832
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:05,919
Speaker 1: teams ever work with psychologists in this way? Especially given

833
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 1: how a typical Trump is. Everyone says he can't be

834
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 1: treated like a traditional politician, Yet most responses still seem

835
00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:14,320
Speaker 1: to ignore the underlying patterns in his behavior. Darren in

836
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:16,799
Speaker 1: San Francisco. Actually, Darren, and I'm going to be very

837
00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 1: careful here. I know an extraordinarily prominent leader in the

838
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 1: Republican Party who, after Donald Trump got elected, was given

839
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 1: by a prominent supporter of this person a detailed paper

840
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:42,480
Speaker 1: on narcissistic personality disorder, and from the get go said, look,

841
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:49,279
Speaker 1: just absorb this and understand this is who you're dealing with,

842
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:54,439
Speaker 1: and use methods. And in some ways this is where

843
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 1: Actually I do think these countries have done their psychological profiles.

844
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 1: I do think they're all using if you look at

845
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 1: you know, how to how to manage somebody with narcissistic

846
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 1: personality disorder. So for instance, some of the suggestions and

847
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 1: how do you deal with somebody with narcissistic personality disorder? Now,

848
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 1: I would argue that you know that there's been a

849
00:52:23,719 --> 00:52:27,960
Speaker 1: lot more and there's one recommendation that says use the

850
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:33,839
Speaker 1: gray rock method, meaning be as uninteresting as a gray rock.

851
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:39,320
Speaker 1: So don't be emotion don't don't react emotionally to something

852
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 1: that they're demanding or declaring. And if you notice, that's

853
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 1: probably the one recommendation everybody does too much because I

854
00:52:47,000 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 1: think it comes across as appeasement. He hears it when

855
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:53,200
Speaker 1: somebody says, oh, that's interesting, which is a way to

856
00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:56,279
Speaker 1: sort of be non committal in your answer. He may

857
00:52:56,360 --> 00:53:00,440
Speaker 1: hear then what he wants to hear on that stuff.

858
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 1: You know, look at One of the other recommendations is

859
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 1: communicate via biff, meaning keep it brief, informative, firm, and

860
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:16,800
Speaker 1: friendly when you're corresponding with said individuals, particularly in writing,

861
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:20,600
Speaker 1: which is keep it short, stick to the facts, set

862
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:24,400
Speaker 1: a clear conclusion or request, and maintain a neutral, polite

863
00:53:24,440 --> 00:53:26,560
Speaker 1: tone to avoid giving them a reason to claim you

864
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 1: are the aggressor. So the point being is when you

865
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,359
Speaker 1: go and look up how to deal with somebody who

866
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 1: has narcissistic personality disorder, what are some recommendations? Go take

867
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:43,000
Speaker 1: a look, because in many ways I think it actually

868
00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 1: answers your question. The answer is, Darren, yes, governments do this. Yes,

869
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:54,600
Speaker 1: they've done it with him. And if you see how

870
00:53:54,719 --> 00:53:57,640
Speaker 1: certain I mean, look at a Claudia Shinbaum, right, she

871
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 1: never takes the bait right away, right, and she is

872
00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 1: you know somebody who's very much she's a scientist, or

873
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:13,880
Speaker 1: she is going to do that kind of research. He

874
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 1: is going to be somebody who accepts the premise of

875
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 1: a psychological profile. We know that's the way Putin operates.

876
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:24,359
Speaker 1: We know that's the way. I think quite a few

877
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:28,000
Speaker 1: governments do that. Certainly the Chinese do this, And so

878
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 1: if you look, I actually think that quite a few

879
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 1: countries are handling him as if they have been briefed

880
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:44,000
Speaker 1: by somebody by saying, how do you handle somebody with

881
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:48,799
Speaker 1: narcissistic personality disorder? So I don't know whether that's good

882
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 1: or bad. It just is. I think it's probably been

883
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:55,760
Speaker 1: more bad than good because it's come across as appeasement,

884
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 1: and when he gets when he gets appeased, he takes

885
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 1: that as a green light yellow light. Next question comes

886
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 1: from Zach and he writes Trump's student loan policy hasn't

887
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:10,160
Speaker 1: gotten much attention, but repayment is starting, is restarting soon,

888
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 1: possibly at higher rates, and there still seems to be

889
00:55:12,200 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 1: no real plan. Sure loans should be paid back, but

890
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:17,080
Speaker 1: why not make payments more reasonable, lower college costs, or

891
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:19,759
Speaker 1: expand forgiveness and credit programs. We're under investing in every

892
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:22,400
Speaker 1: level of education, from K to twelve to graduate school.

893
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 1: Take the doctor shortage for example. How can people feel

894
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:27,800
Speaker 1: that need when med school can leave them five hundred

895
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:30,319
Speaker 1: thousand in debt. Look, I completely agree, and I think

896
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:33,279
Speaker 1: that I think this is going to become a more

897
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:37,239
Speaker 1: explosive issue because look, I've got a graduating senior this

898
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:43,279
Speaker 1: year and finding a job her and her peers. This

899
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:45,920
Speaker 1: is not an easy environment. There's a lot of them

900
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:50,320
Speaker 1: already panicking. I'm trying to keep my daughter from panicking

901
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:53,799
Speaker 1: on this. But you know these are for people looking

902
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 1: for jobs in their field, right, even if it's entry

903
00:55:56,080 --> 00:56:00,320
Speaker 1: level jobs, and so that's it's been hard. Part of

904
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:03,840
Speaker 1: it is AI. Part of it is sort of economic

905
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:07,759
Speaker 1: paralysis right now because of the international situation that Trump

906
00:56:07,800 --> 00:56:10,080
Speaker 1: has created. We have a lot of businesses are afraid

907
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 1: to do too much investment in one way or the

908
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 1: other because nobody's quite sure which way the wind's blowing.

909
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:17,440
Speaker 1: So all of it has led to what feels like

910
00:56:17,560 --> 00:56:20,040
Speaker 1: an employment pullback, right. A little bit of its AI

911
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,680
Speaker 1: contributed a little bit as the current sort of weak economy,

912
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:31,080
Speaker 1: unstable international environment, mostly due to the American to US leadership.

913
00:56:33,239 --> 00:56:36,920
Speaker 1: That's a toxic mix here, and you're going to think

914
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:39,920
Speaker 1: have some angry young voters, and it should trigger some

915
00:56:40,080 --> 00:56:43,360
Speaker 1: policy ideas like the ones you're suggesting, whether it's you know,

916
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 1: I wish and this is where I thought Biden's student

917
00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 1: loan policy was just terrible. There should have been some

918
00:56:54,040 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 1: sort of national service contribution in exchange for getting some

919
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:06,400
Speaker 1: of your daddy raised. You know that it's a you know,

920
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 1: a contribution to the public good in some form or another. Volunteering,

921
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:14,719
Speaker 1: maybe it's a public works job. Maybe it's getting a

922
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:19,920
Speaker 1: medical education because we need more not just doctors, physician

923
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 1: assistants for your nurses, et cetera. There's all sorts of

924
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 1: ways that it could have been done in a way,

925
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 1: and I think, frankly because of what we're going to see,

926
00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 1: which is rising youth unemployment, especially with folks under the

927
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 1: age of thirty, that you know, the better presidential candidates

928
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:46,400
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight will likely be thinking this way

929
00:57:48,000 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 1: and making proposals on this. I know Wes Moore, if

930
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 1: he runs for president, he's a big advocate of national service.

931
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 1: He has started basically a pilot program that he'd like

932
00:57:56,240 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 1: to take national in the state of Maryland. And it

933
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 1: is also tuition assistance and debt forgiveness is a part

934
00:58:03,640 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 1: of it. So I think I suspect that we will

935
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 1: this will become more prominent more as the presidential camp

936
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:16,040
Speaker 1: primary campaign begins less so I think in the midterm elections.

937
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:21,920
Speaker 1: All right, next question comes from a school one of

938
00:58:21,960 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 1: the four the four seas, I guess is Pomona anyway,

939
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:31,920
Speaker 1: Ben from Colorado here originally from California. I was surprised

940
00:58:31,960 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 1: to hear John Slavitz suggests California could become a swing

941
00:58:34,920 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 1: state based on recent voter trends and pandemic migration. That

942
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 1: feels unlikely to me. Am I missing something? Also explaining

943
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:42,400
Speaker 1: to cancel high speed rail seem short sighted given its

944
00:58:42,440 --> 00:58:45,080
Speaker 1: economic impact on the Central Valley and continued public support.

945
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 1: Thanks and go Broncos both Denver and cal Poly Pomona. Well,

946
00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:54,920
Speaker 1: my producer Lauren is happy to hear a go Broncos.

947
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:58,920
Speaker 1: He's a big time Bronco fan. It is the Broncos

948
00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:01,080
Speaker 1: still being in the playoffs, you know, getting in the

949
00:59:01,120 --> 00:59:08,160
Speaker 1: way of our timing on certain tapics here. But I kid, yeah,

950
00:59:08,200 --> 00:59:15,000
Speaker 1: I think that's I never rule out any state swinging

951
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:22,440
Speaker 1: a bit, but California seems, I mean the California Republican

952
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:26,280
Speaker 1: brand is terrible, right, Their current national Republican brand does

953
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:31,240
Speaker 1: not play in California. If the Republican Party's brand were

954
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 1: more Arnold Schwarzenegger, unless Donald Trump, then yeah, California could

955
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 1: get swinging, right, you know, But Arnold Swarzenegger was no

956
00:59:39,000 --> 00:59:46,280
Speaker 1: ordinary Republican. If the Republican brand became more centrist, was

957
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 1: seen as sort of the party of Silicon Valley and

958
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:52,480
Speaker 1: business in a way, but sort of wasn't antagonistic on immigration,

959
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:55,520
Speaker 1: and wasn't you know, I mean, Silicon Valley wouldn't be

960
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 1: half as powerful as it was without immigration, so it

961
00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:01,919
Speaker 1: would be a natural place for a pro business party

962
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:06,120
Speaker 1: to go. Except nationally, this Republican party's pretty anti immigrant.

963
01:00:06,280 --> 01:00:13,439
Speaker 1: So I think you're right right now. But you know, look,

964
01:00:14,520 --> 01:00:17,680
Speaker 1: I think any time you have a one party state,

965
01:00:18,200 --> 01:00:21,200
Speaker 1: there's always a vacuum somewhere that's going to get filled.

966
01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:24,280
Speaker 1: I think it's still more likely we'll get an independent

967
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:27,360
Speaker 1: kind of like you know, I've always viewed Schwarzenegger as

968
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:29,880
Speaker 1: kind of a quasi independent more than he was a Republican,

969
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:32,960
Speaker 1: And he probably would have won whether he ran as

970
01:00:32,960 --> 01:00:35,840
Speaker 1: an IE or an R next to his name, Shoot,

971
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:36,920
Speaker 1: he might have been able to win as a D

972
01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:42,400
Speaker 1: next to his name. I still think if California doesn't

973
01:00:42,400 --> 01:00:45,720
Speaker 1: elect a Democrat statewide in a race over the next

974
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:49,360
Speaker 1: ten years, it's because somebody won as an I I think,

975
01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:52,720
Speaker 1: not because somebody won as an R. That's my opinion,

976
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:58,520
Speaker 1: and I may be proven wrong on that front. Look,

977
01:00:58,600 --> 01:01:01,520
Speaker 1: the high speed railed situation in California, I agree with

978
01:01:01,600 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 1: you about the economic impact for the Central Valley. But

979
01:01:06,680 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 1: the it is, it has been a symbol of It

980
01:01:11,720 --> 01:01:13,840
Speaker 1: is a negative symbol I think for the left, and

981
01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:16,960
Speaker 1: the inability goes it goes to why the abundance movement

982
01:01:17,160 --> 01:01:20,560
Speaker 1: has caught fire among some liberals when they're like, you know,

983
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,960
Speaker 1: we can't just keep proposing ideas that take ten or

984
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 1: fifteen years. We've got to be able to bring these

985
01:01:28,760 --> 01:01:36,080
Speaker 1: these these ideas to voters quicker and sooner. And how

986
01:01:36,120 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 1: they do that is I think, you know, if they'd

987
01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:41,280
Speaker 1: done that, we might already have some high speed rail

988
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:45,920
Speaker 1: in California that people would be happy with, right you know.

989
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:50,440
Speaker 1: You know it's funny the Florida program got you know,

990
01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:52,480
Speaker 1: it never really took off, but then we got some

991
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 1: private sector There's a thing called bright line. It's actually

992
01:01:55,640 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 1: starting to get some consumer uptake, if you will, because hey,

993
01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:07,480
Speaker 1: it's great to be able to train from Miami to Orlando.

994
01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:11,440
Speaker 1: It's a heck of a lot easier than driving. And so,

995
01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:17,040
Speaker 1: you know, we still I think the concept of high

996
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 1: speed rail is still a popular idea, but I think

997
01:02:19,240 --> 01:02:24,320
Speaker 1: this was about how hard and how poor the implementation

998
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 1: process has been. All right. Last question comes from David P.

999
01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:31,400
Speaker 1: And Scottsdale. He says, you recently outlined three likely midterm outcomes,

1000
01:02:31,600 --> 01:02:33,920
Speaker 1: but I think the most probable is a constitutional crisis

1001
01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:37,520
Speaker 1: where Magoline leaders, led by the Speaker, refuse to certify

1002
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:39,440
Speaker 1: new members from blue districts. Trump has shown he'll do

1003
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:42,720
Speaker 1: anything to hold power, and dismissing this as overblown seems naive.

1004
01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:45,720
Speaker 1: What's your take love the show, David P. Scottsdale. Here's

1005
01:02:45,800 --> 01:02:48,439
Speaker 1: the thing, you know, I had a friend of mine

1006
01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:50,080
Speaker 1: say to me once he goes, you know, the biggest

1007
01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 1: mistake we make with Trump failure of imagination. January sixth

1008
01:02:55,440 --> 01:02:58,959
Speaker 1: is one of those that's failure of imagination. But then again,

1009
01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:03,520
Speaker 1: what did I begin this podcast with Taco Thursday? Trump

1010
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 1: always chickens out. Well, January six is a perfect example

1011
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 1: of a way that he both does and doesn't. Right,

1012
01:03:11,560 --> 01:03:14,240
Speaker 1: Trump chickened out on January six. You know, I've always

1013
01:03:14,400 --> 01:03:16,480
Speaker 1: the next interview I ever do with Donald Trump. If

1014
01:03:16,520 --> 01:03:20,200
Speaker 1: I do another interview with Donald Trump, miss President, love

1015
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 1: to sit down with you. But one of the questions

1016
01:03:22,600 --> 01:03:26,720
Speaker 1: I'd ask about January six is why you didn't follow through?

1017
01:03:27,920 --> 01:03:30,880
Speaker 1: Why'd you choke? Why didn't you fire the attorney general?

1018
01:03:31,400 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 1: Why didn't you fire the Defense secretary? Why didn't you

1019
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:36,800
Speaker 1: vote the Insurrection Act? All the things he said he

1020
01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:41,720
Speaker 1: could have done? Why didn't he do it? Now? I've

1021
01:03:41,760 --> 01:03:44,000
Speaker 1: heard him recently somebody kind of you know, he said, well,

1022
01:03:44,000 --> 01:03:46,200
Speaker 1: I guess I should have seized the voting machines. You're like,

1023
01:03:46,280 --> 01:03:50,800
Speaker 1: oh boy, Right, So I say all that because he

1024
01:03:50,960 --> 01:03:54,720
Speaker 1: simultaneously usually chickens out and is willing to touch the

1025
01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:57,960
Speaker 1: hot stove too long. Right, That's sort of his I

1026
01:03:58,080 --> 01:04:02,160
Speaker 1: guess that's his great superpower is is he is convinced

1027
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:07,880
Speaker 1: people he that he's all words and no action, and

1028
01:04:08,040 --> 01:04:10,919
Speaker 1: he's convinced people, well, there's nothing he wouldn't be willing

1029
01:04:11,000 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 1: to try either. But I don't dismiss it. I don't

1030
01:04:15,800 --> 01:04:20,440
Speaker 1: think it's likely A lot of it will depend on

1031
01:04:25,520 --> 01:04:31,680
Speaker 1: what the people around him do. Right, A lot of

1032
01:04:31,720 --> 01:04:35,440
Speaker 1: this will be on Susie Wilds. Right, Mark Meadows let

1033
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:40,160
Speaker 1: every looney tune person get into the president's here after

1034
01:04:40,240 --> 01:04:43,240
Speaker 1: the election in twenty twenty and got him whipped up

1035
01:04:44,680 --> 01:04:47,560
Speaker 1: and got him thinking all these conspiracies, and he'd borrow

1036
01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:51,200
Speaker 1: from it, and he'd go crazy. Do Susie Wilds have

1037
01:04:51,320 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 1: the same open door policy after the midterms, where he'll

1038
01:04:56,360 --> 01:04:58,800
Speaker 1: get looney tuned lawyers who will come in and say,

1039
01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 1: you know what you ought to do. Convinced Mike Johnson

1040
01:05:01,400 --> 01:05:03,520
Speaker 1: not to accept this, accept that, et cetera, et cetera.

1041
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 1: So I think we're only in the situation you describe.

1042
01:05:09,440 --> 01:05:14,480
Speaker 1: If the battle for the House is under five seats, right,

1043
01:05:14,800 --> 01:05:17,360
Speaker 1: the Democrats have a majority, that's five seats are less,

1044
01:05:18,880 --> 01:05:21,520
Speaker 1: then I'd be worried about them not seating everybody and

1045
01:05:21,640 --> 01:05:25,720
Speaker 1: trying to do that. If it's a twenty to thirty

1046
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:29,200
Speaker 1: seat pickup, I don't know how you do it, you know,

1047
01:05:29,320 --> 01:05:32,440
Speaker 1: because it states that, yes, look the House of Representatives,

1048
01:05:33,040 --> 01:05:37,360
Speaker 1: you know, they ultimately can decide who's in and who's out.

1049
01:05:37,400 --> 01:05:40,520
Speaker 1: But it takes a majority. They barely have a working

1050
01:05:40,640 --> 01:05:47,080
Speaker 1: majority right now, and it isn't you know, the percentages

1051
01:05:47,080 --> 01:05:50,960
Speaker 1: aren't zero that there are more Democrats in the House

1052
01:05:51,800 --> 01:05:54,919
Speaker 1: come November first, twenty twenty sixth, then there are living

1053
01:05:55,000 --> 01:06:02,960
Speaker 1: Republicans right between Actuary tables. Accidents, things we haven't thought about.

1054
01:06:04,240 --> 01:06:07,480
Speaker 1: You know, somebody out of nowhere dropped out of a

1055
01:06:07,520 --> 01:06:11,760
Speaker 1: heart attack in California's first congressional district. Suddenly they're short

1056
01:06:12,320 --> 01:06:15,040
Speaker 1: another member of Congress. That could happen as easily on

1057
01:06:15,080 --> 01:06:22,360
Speaker 1: the Democratic side. So I'm not dismissive and gonna call

1058
01:06:22,680 --> 01:06:28,840
Speaker 1: I'm done, you know, to me after January sixth, we

1059
01:06:28,960 --> 01:06:33,880
Speaker 1: shouldn't have a failure to imagine anymore with Trump, And

1060
01:06:33,960 --> 01:06:37,280
Speaker 1: I think that's why nobody was just dismissive of him

1061
01:06:37,320 --> 01:06:44,320
Speaker 1: talking about Greenland this time, as they were when he

1062
01:06:44,960 --> 01:06:50,520
Speaker 1: mused about Greenland during his first term. So I don't

1063
01:06:50,520 --> 01:06:54,400
Speaker 1: think it's likely. I don't, but I think your scenario

1064
01:06:55,200 --> 01:07:02,040
Speaker 1: would concern me more if the margin, you know, is

1065
01:07:02,120 --> 01:07:06,520
Speaker 1: somewhere five seats or less, and say one seat in

1066
01:07:06,640 --> 01:07:15,840
Speaker 1: the in the SEC. All right, with that, I will

1067
01:07:15,880 --> 01:07:18,600
Speaker 1: put a pin in it. I feel like it's Thursday.

1068
01:07:18,680 --> 01:07:22,320
Speaker 1: I should do a little bit of sports. I can't

1069
01:07:22,520 --> 01:07:26,160
Speaker 1: you know it's been in college football for a'm teen weeks,

1070
01:07:27,280 --> 01:07:30,840
Speaker 1: but I think I teased then I was gonna have

1071
01:07:30,880 --> 01:07:33,440
Speaker 1: some strong opinions about the Baseball Hall of Fame. And

1072
01:07:33,760 --> 01:07:36,760
Speaker 1: it's not new to have sort of a hot take

1073
01:07:37,400 --> 01:07:39,480
Speaker 1: on the Baseball Hall of Fame. And there's plenty of

1074
01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:46,120
Speaker 1: smart people and dumb people have made different proposals about

1075
01:07:46,120 --> 01:07:48,560
Speaker 1: what should the Hall of Fame do. And you know,

1076
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:52,160
Speaker 1: us baseball fans were weirdly more protective of the Baseball

1077
01:07:52,200 --> 01:07:55,400
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame than basketball fans are of the Basketball

1078
01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:58,280
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame, which, man, you know, if you have

1079
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:00,120
Speaker 1: if you have a ten year career and go to

1080
01:08:00,160 --> 01:08:02,120
Speaker 1: three All Star Games, you're going to make the Basketball

1081
01:08:02,120 --> 01:08:06,800
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame. In baseball, that's never you know, that's

1082
01:08:06,880 --> 01:08:14,040
Speaker 1: you know, we expect something more than that. Right they're there.

1083
01:08:14,360 --> 01:08:17,160
Speaker 1: It feels always felt a bit more lenient for the

1084
01:08:17,240 --> 01:08:21,800
Speaker 1: Basketball Hall of Fame than with the Baseball Hall of Fame.

1085
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:26,519
Speaker 1: And then the Pro Football Hall of Fame is is

1086
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:31,720
Speaker 1: they've they have a they sort of the criteria is

1087
01:08:31,720 --> 01:08:34,120
Speaker 1: a mess. Who votes as a mess. There's sort of

1088
01:08:34,200 --> 01:08:37,519
Speaker 1: this committee that rotates, you don't quite know who it is.

1089
01:08:38,920 --> 01:08:42,040
Speaker 1: Some sports writers are a part of it, but they're

1090
01:08:42,080 --> 01:08:47,800
Speaker 1: not a biggest a bigger part of it. They have

1091
01:08:47,920 --> 01:08:50,559
Speaker 1: acknowledged that they've sort of there were times where they

1092
01:08:50,640 --> 01:08:55,840
Speaker 1: sort of undervalued certain positions. I think the Baseball Hall

1093
01:08:55,880 --> 01:08:59,120
Speaker 1: of Fame is is much better about acknowledging every position

1094
01:08:59,240 --> 01:09:03,120
Speaker 1: and making sure that there are Hall of Famers on

1095
01:09:03,520 --> 01:09:05,720
Speaker 1: all levels. It took a while for the for the

1096
01:09:05,800 --> 01:09:09,040
Speaker 1: prof Again, it's not necessity technically an NFL Hall of Fame.

1097
01:09:09,080 --> 01:09:11,840
Speaker 1: It's a Pro Football Hall of Fame. You know, they've

1098
01:09:11,840 --> 01:09:14,599
Speaker 1: been a little slow on the on punters and kickers.

1099
01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:20,320
Speaker 1: I was impressed that Devin Hester made it into the

1100
01:09:20,439 --> 01:09:23,120
Speaker 1: NFL Hall of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, where

1101
01:09:23,160 --> 01:09:25,800
Speaker 1: he was primarily got there because he's considered the greatest

1102
01:09:25,880 --> 01:09:28,479
Speaker 1: kick returner of all time. You know, that is not

1103
01:09:29,720 --> 01:09:33,439
Speaker 1: it it is. You know, it's sort of like if

1104
01:09:33,920 --> 01:09:36,240
Speaker 1: I think, you kick, the best kick returner ought to

1105
01:09:36,280 --> 01:09:38,840
Speaker 1: be in the Hall of Fame, but there are you know,

1106
01:09:39,360 --> 01:09:42,720
Speaker 1: did he contribute enough as a receiver to you know,

1107
01:09:42,800 --> 01:09:44,080
Speaker 1: he never would have made it the Hall of Fame

1108
01:09:44,120 --> 01:09:45,960
Speaker 1: if you just looked at him as a wide receiver.

1109
01:09:47,920 --> 01:09:50,000
Speaker 1: It's kind of like the argument that gets made about

1110
01:09:50,160 --> 01:09:54,200
Speaker 1: relief pitchers and I think the entire conversation about pitchers

1111
01:09:54,800 --> 01:09:56,880
Speaker 1: and the Hall of Fame is going to change because

1112
01:09:57,479 --> 01:10:01,400
Speaker 1: you know, you know, most starting pitchers are only asked

1113
01:10:01,439 --> 01:10:03,800
Speaker 1: to go five or six innings. So now the win,

1114
01:10:04,560 --> 01:10:06,320
Speaker 1: you know, first of all, three hundred wins isn't going

1115
01:10:06,360 --> 01:10:08,680
Speaker 1: to happen, and even two point fifty is probably going

1116
01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:11,160
Speaker 1: to be a rarity. Two hundred and twenty five wins

1117
01:10:11,320 --> 01:10:14,719
Speaker 1: is probably going to be the new marker, right, everybody

1118
01:10:14,760 --> 01:10:17,760
Speaker 1: with two twenty five or north will probably starting in

1119
01:10:17,880 --> 01:10:20,559
Speaker 1: the twenty first century, if you will, we'll probably definitely

1120
01:10:20,600 --> 01:10:23,120
Speaker 1: get in. But wins in general are seen is not

1121
01:10:23,280 --> 01:10:26,360
Speaker 1: as telling of a statistic as all these other stats

1122
01:10:26,439 --> 01:10:29,320
Speaker 1: that you have. I think the frustration with all of

1123
01:10:29,360 --> 01:10:32,240
Speaker 1: these Hall of Fames is that there's no specific metric, right,

1124
01:10:32,760 --> 01:10:34,360
Speaker 1: you just sort of know it when you see it.

1125
01:10:34,600 --> 01:10:37,800
Speaker 1: It's always been ultimately for me, the Hall of Fame

1126
01:10:37,800 --> 01:10:40,760
Speaker 1: as a pornography is the old Supreme Court pornography test.

1127
01:10:40,840 --> 01:10:44,240
Speaker 1: You know it when you see it, which is why

1128
01:10:44,320 --> 01:10:51,320
Speaker 1: I struggled with the two inductees this week, Carlos Beltran

1129
01:10:51,400 --> 01:10:55,360
Speaker 1: and Andrew Jones. I'm a bigger proponent of Jones into

1130
01:10:55,400 --> 01:10:58,360
Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame than I would be Beltran And

1131
01:10:59,120 --> 01:11:03,599
Speaker 1: it's just one of those things. Andrew Jones was might

1132
01:11:03,680 --> 01:11:07,240
Speaker 1: be the best defensive center fielder ever. And I think

1133
01:11:07,320 --> 01:11:10,000
Speaker 1: when you're ever known as the best of something ever,

1134
01:11:10,479 --> 01:11:13,160
Speaker 1: Devin Hester kick returner, you know, you got to figure

1135
01:11:13,160 --> 01:11:14,639
Speaker 1: out how to get that person in the Hall of Fame.

1136
01:11:17,920 --> 01:11:20,080
Speaker 1: But then I think, you know, the more data we

1137
01:11:20,200 --> 01:11:22,519
Speaker 1: have now about baseball, the more data that we use

1138
01:11:22,600 --> 01:11:24,760
Speaker 1: to determine who's good at this and who's good at that,

1139
01:11:25,160 --> 01:11:28,840
Speaker 1: it is it has increased the odds that the Hall

1140
01:11:28,840 --> 01:11:31,000
Speaker 1: of Fame is turning into the Hall of the incredibly good,

1141
01:11:33,000 --> 01:11:36,479
Speaker 1: but not necessarily the best. And I say that because

1142
01:11:36,520 --> 01:11:40,200
Speaker 1: and I think it goes to I don't know, I'm

1143
01:11:40,439 --> 01:11:42,840
Speaker 1: the Baseball Hall of Fame I think has been devalued

1144
01:11:44,000 --> 01:11:48,240
Speaker 1: unintentionally by the decision by sports writers to punish the

1145
01:11:48,520 --> 01:11:53,000
Speaker 1: known steroids guys. And the decision to do that was

1146
01:11:53,160 --> 01:11:57,120
Speaker 1: done out of moral conviction that I respect, which was, hey,

1147
01:11:57,160 --> 01:11:59,360
Speaker 1: we got to the Hall of Fame, should be reserved.

1148
01:11:59,479 --> 01:12:03,759
Speaker 1: No cheater allowed, right, that's bottom line, right, no cheaters allowed.

1149
01:12:06,000 --> 01:12:10,920
Speaker 1: The question is what's the definition of cheating? Right? And

1150
01:12:11,040 --> 01:12:14,479
Speaker 1: that's you know, if you took amphetamines with coffee. You know,

1151
01:12:14,520 --> 01:12:17,160
Speaker 1: they're in the sixties, and I remember, I think this

1152
01:12:17,360 --> 01:12:23,080
Speaker 1: was in the ken Burn's Baseball documentary. You know, there

1153
01:12:23,200 --> 01:12:27,280
Speaker 1: was this special coffee, right, and it was essentially emphetamines

1154
01:12:28,040 --> 01:12:31,160
Speaker 1: mixed with caffeine that players took because it was a

1155
01:12:31,240 --> 01:12:35,000
Speaker 1: long season and you needed a jolt of energy. Is

1156
01:12:35,040 --> 01:12:38,720
Speaker 1: that a performance enhancing drug? Right? Where do you draw

1157
01:12:38,800 --> 01:12:42,680
Speaker 1: the line on that, you know? And that's where I

1158
01:12:42,760 --> 01:12:48,280
Speaker 1: think there's always been more gray area with this. I

1159
01:12:48,360 --> 01:12:50,800
Speaker 1: think if you cheat after the league puts in a

1160
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:54,160
Speaker 1: rule that it's cheating, then that's one thing. But when

1161
01:12:54,200 --> 01:12:57,760
Speaker 1: you had this gray area for so long and these

1162
01:12:57,920 --> 01:13:06,920
Speaker 1: guys sort of, you know, found ways around it it again,

1163
01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:11,760
Speaker 1: it obviously created a bit a of a crisis. So

1164
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:14,240
Speaker 1: we have all these famous players from the nineties not

1165
01:13:14,360 --> 01:13:17,759
Speaker 1: in the Hall of Fame, right, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds,

1166
01:13:18,280 --> 01:13:23,080
Speaker 1: Raphael Palm, Merrow, Mark McGuire, who were the most famous

1167
01:13:23,160 --> 01:13:28,920
Speaker 1: baseball players of the nineteen nineties. And it gets to

1168
01:13:29,040 --> 01:13:30,960
Speaker 1: the other part of the name of the thing. It's

1169
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:36,200
Speaker 1: called the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of purity.

1170
01:13:38,200 --> 01:13:44,000
Speaker 1: And I wonder if we are in some ways going

1171
01:13:44,080 --> 01:13:47,320
Speaker 1: out of our way to reward collectively. And I say we,

1172
01:13:47,960 --> 01:13:51,200
Speaker 1: I mean sort of the baseball community. I'd love to

1173
01:13:51,200 --> 01:13:55,360
Speaker 1: get a vote. I'd love to My late great friend

1174
01:13:55,400 --> 01:13:59,160
Speaker 1: Tim Russeard was on the was on the Cooperstown committee

1175
01:13:59,160 --> 01:14:01,599
Speaker 1: of some former and other man. Sign me up if

1176
01:14:01,600 --> 01:14:07,360
Speaker 1: I could ever get a piece, get on that. But

1177
01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:11,439
Speaker 1: it you know, there's a I think what's fun about

1178
01:14:11,439 --> 01:14:14,760
Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame is twofold and it's something that

1179
01:14:14,880 --> 01:14:21,640
Speaker 1: I wish more of these leagues would embrace. And at

1180
01:14:21,720 --> 01:14:24,200
Speaker 1: its root it goes to an idea that Bill Simmons

1181
01:14:24,320 --> 01:14:26,840
Speaker 1: I think once did out of page two way back

1182
01:14:26,920 --> 01:14:29,600
Speaker 1: when when he he wanted to do these pyramids or

1183
01:14:29,720 --> 01:14:32,160
Speaker 1: I think levels, Right, you're a top of the pyramid

1184
01:14:32,320 --> 01:14:34,280
Speaker 1: or you know you could come up with it as

1185
01:14:34,720 --> 01:14:40,160
Speaker 1: five star, right, like you know you're a Hall of Famer,

1186
01:14:40,240 --> 01:14:43,040
Speaker 1: but are you a are you in the silver Diamond

1187
01:14:43,160 --> 01:14:46,439
Speaker 1: Club wing of the Hall of Fame or are you

1188
01:14:46,720 --> 01:14:49,479
Speaker 1: just in the regular wing of the Hall of Fame? Right?

1189
01:14:50,360 --> 01:14:53,519
Speaker 1: And it would be fun to debate, Hey does so

1190
01:14:53,680 --> 01:14:57,960
Speaker 1: and so belong in this upper tier, the middle tier

1191
01:14:58,240 --> 01:15:02,760
Speaker 1: or the lower tier? Right? You can and you know,

1192
01:15:03,000 --> 01:15:06,439
Speaker 1: to me, if you want to make the Hall of

1193
01:15:06,520 --> 01:15:12,040
Speaker 1: Fame relevant to fans today and fans of yesteryear. What

1194
01:15:12,280 --> 01:15:15,439
Speaker 1: is great about it are the debates. It's having the debate.

1195
01:15:15,920 --> 01:15:18,800
Speaker 1: So on one hand, I'm glad that we can have

1196
01:15:18,920 --> 01:15:21,920
Speaker 1: a debate about Beltran and Jones. And you know, look,

1197
01:15:21,960 --> 01:15:24,240
Speaker 1: it looks like Chase Utley is on the way there.

1198
01:15:24,400 --> 01:15:29,000
Speaker 1: Andy Pettitt, Addie Pettitt is close to getting fifty percent

1199
01:15:29,040 --> 01:15:32,639
Speaker 1: of the vote this time. Does he have a chance.

1200
01:15:32,680 --> 01:15:35,840
Speaker 1: It was interesting reading Ken Rosenthal about Andy Pettitt because

1201
01:15:35,880 --> 01:15:38,040
Speaker 1: there's always been this question with Pettit. One is there's

1202
01:15:38,040 --> 01:15:40,479
Speaker 1: always been a little bit of association, you know, did

1203
01:15:40,560 --> 01:15:44,160
Speaker 1: he did he? Did he take whatever Clemens was doing?

1204
01:15:46,680 --> 01:15:49,000
Speaker 1: But I think the bigger question mark on Pettitt is

1205
01:15:49,040 --> 01:15:52,880
Speaker 1: the same question you could have about Kurt Shilling, although

1206
01:15:52,920 --> 01:15:56,320
Speaker 1: I think politics is why Shilling isn't it, which is

1207
01:15:56,400 --> 01:16:00,600
Speaker 1: how much did the postseason matter when you make it,

1208
01:16:00,800 --> 01:16:03,559
Speaker 1: when you decide whether somebody's Hall of Fame worthy. Andy

1209
01:16:03,600 --> 01:16:10,040
Speaker 1: Pettit's postseason record is unbelievable, and it's and so's Kurt Schilling, right,

1210
01:16:10,520 --> 01:16:14,840
Speaker 1: and so should that? You know, not every player like

1211
01:16:14,920 --> 01:16:16,879
Speaker 1: a Ted Williams never got to play in the postseason,

1212
01:16:17,920 --> 01:16:21,960
Speaker 1: you know, so is it Is it fair? Is it unfair?

1213
01:16:22,760 --> 01:16:25,160
Speaker 1: Is it unfair to those that don't get to the postseason?

1214
01:16:25,240 --> 01:16:29,800
Speaker 1: So it's not everybody gets there too. You know that

1215
01:16:30,360 --> 01:16:32,519
Speaker 1: a player that happens to be playing for the Dodgers

1216
01:16:32,560 --> 01:16:35,120
Speaker 1: or the Yankees, who frequently make the postseason, they have

1217
01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:40,479
Speaker 1: a better chance at getting opportunities for postseason immortality, which then,

1218
01:16:40,560 --> 01:16:42,519
Speaker 1: of course gives them a better chance at getting into

1219
01:16:42,560 --> 01:16:46,599
Speaker 1: the Hall. Well, if you're you know, I guess as

1220
01:16:46,640 --> 01:16:49,240
Speaker 1: a player, it's on you to help lead your team

1221
01:16:49,320 --> 01:16:52,760
Speaker 1: to the playoffs, right, So I, you know, I kind

1222
01:16:52,800 --> 01:16:55,800
Speaker 1: of think the postseason ought to get there. But what

1223
01:16:55,960 --> 01:16:59,920
Speaker 1: was interesting about the Ken Rosenthal column in The Athletic

1224
01:17:00,080 --> 01:17:05,040
Speaker 1: this week explaining his ballot, explaining his rationale, Like, for instance,

1225
01:17:05,120 --> 01:17:08,719
Speaker 1: he suddenly decided, you know, the Felix Hernandez, Right, Felix

1226
01:17:08,760 --> 01:17:10,559
Speaker 1: Hernandez is one of those Did he have a long

1227
01:17:10,680 --> 01:17:13,840
Speaker 1: enough career? Right? There was no doubt for about six years,

1228
01:17:14,240 --> 01:17:15,840
Speaker 1: it was a given he was the best pitcher in baseball.

1229
01:17:15,880 --> 01:17:18,840
Speaker 1: You're like, man, poor Seattle. But he was in Seattle, right,

1230
01:17:18,920 --> 01:17:20,880
Speaker 1: had he been in Boston or New York, he'd probably

1231
01:17:20,880 --> 01:17:24,439
Speaker 1: already be in the Hall of Fame, Right, He's who

1232
01:17:24,479 --> 01:17:28,720
Speaker 1: would you rather have pitching CC, Sabbathi or Felix Hernandez

1233
01:17:28,760 --> 01:17:31,200
Speaker 1: in their prime. I don't think it's a it's not

1234
01:17:31,320 --> 01:17:34,000
Speaker 1: even a it's to me, it's not even close. I look,

1235
01:17:34,120 --> 01:17:37,840
Speaker 1: I love CEC. He's one of my favorite players. I

1236
01:17:38,200 --> 01:17:42,280
Speaker 1: enjoy Ceci, I enjoy hearing him, I love his story.

1237
01:17:43,680 --> 01:17:48,240
Speaker 1: But man, kim me Felix right that that I'd have

1238
01:17:48,439 --> 01:17:53,320
Speaker 1: definitely gotten him. And I think CC benefited from being

1239
01:17:53,439 --> 01:17:56,960
Speaker 1: Yankee right and having more opportunities in the in the postseason.

1240
01:17:57,360 --> 01:18:00,360
Speaker 1: But what was interesting is is as we reassess what

1241
01:18:00,520 --> 01:18:04,439
Speaker 1: pictures get in right when the markers of three thousand

1242
01:18:04,479 --> 01:18:10,000
Speaker 1: innings or three thousand strikeouts or I guess it's two

1243
01:18:10,000 --> 01:18:13,200
Speaker 1: thousand innings, three thousand strikeouts, three hundred wins, when those

1244
01:18:13,320 --> 01:18:16,240
Speaker 1: markers are sort of less relevant, less likely because we

1245
01:18:16,360 --> 01:18:21,320
Speaker 1: now have five man rotations, we now have specialty relief pictures,

1246
01:18:21,360 --> 01:18:22,760
Speaker 1: And what are we going to do about that? It

1247
01:18:22,840 --> 01:18:26,600
Speaker 1: took us forever to decide should closers get in, and

1248
01:18:26,680 --> 01:18:29,840
Speaker 1: then we've seen over time the best closers of every

1249
01:18:29,920 --> 01:18:34,760
Speaker 1: decade find their way into the Hall of Fame. What

1250
01:18:34,880 --> 01:18:36,880
Speaker 1: do you do about the guys in between? The great

1251
01:18:36,960 --> 01:18:42,560
Speaker 1: hold guys, right, are they going to get some consideration,

1252
01:18:42,920 --> 01:18:45,200
Speaker 1: you know? Or are you going to have to be

1253
01:18:45,280 --> 01:18:49,000
Speaker 1: a closer. You're going to have to have saves in

1254
01:18:49,200 --> 01:18:52,240
Speaker 1: order to get there, because I do think the Hall

1255
01:18:52,240 --> 01:18:55,040
Speaker 1: of Fame model reflect the game that is played in

1256
01:18:55,160 --> 01:18:58,960
Speaker 1: that era and how it was played in these days.

1257
01:18:59,160 --> 01:19:03,720
Speaker 1: Bullpen's matter more than they ever have before, and specialty

1258
01:19:03,800 --> 01:19:08,719
Speaker 1: pitching certainly matters there. But what's interesting is how Rosenthal

1259
01:19:08,800 --> 01:19:12,679
Speaker 1: admitted it's made him rethink certain guys that he dismissed

1260
01:19:12,680 --> 01:19:15,519
Speaker 1: as Hall of famers before. And pictures that he singled

1261
01:19:15,560 --> 01:19:21,639
Speaker 1: out were Mark Burley longtime Chicago White sock and Cole Hamil's.

1262
01:19:21,840 --> 01:19:24,880
Speaker 1: Who's somebody who's when you look at him through a

1263
01:19:24,920 --> 01:19:27,760
Speaker 1: different prism, And it's particularly with the postseason as well,

1264
01:19:28,040 --> 01:19:31,360
Speaker 1: you're like, hey, wait a minute, you know, Hamil's is

1265
01:19:31,800 --> 01:19:34,400
Speaker 1: much closer to the Hall of Fame worthy than you realize.

1266
01:19:35,680 --> 01:19:37,880
Speaker 1: But then there's another part of this that I don't

1267
01:19:37,920 --> 01:19:39,720
Speaker 1: know how you measure, but I think that matters in

1268
01:19:39,760 --> 01:19:42,479
Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame, which is really like, did people

1269
01:19:42,560 --> 01:19:46,080
Speaker 1: want their baseball card? Were they considered where you were like,

1270
01:19:46,200 --> 01:19:51,160
Speaker 1: oh my god, we're facing who tonight? You got to

1271
01:19:51,240 --> 01:19:54,680
Speaker 1: pitch around that guy or oh boy, so and so

1272
01:19:55,360 --> 01:19:57,160
Speaker 1: ought to be further down the lineup because so and

1273
01:19:57,240 --> 01:20:01,040
Speaker 1: so is pitching, you know it is. And that's the

1274
01:20:01,240 --> 01:20:04,920
Speaker 1: pornography test, if you will to that that that's missing.

1275
01:20:05,040 --> 01:20:11,120
Speaker 1: So look, I I think we're I think the all

1276
01:20:11,200 --> 01:20:14,560
Speaker 1: of the Hall of Fames need a reboot. Uh. I

1277
01:20:14,680 --> 01:20:17,800
Speaker 1: think somebody ought to give Simmons some credit and that

1278
01:20:18,000 --> 01:20:22,280
Speaker 1: that the idea of creating different wings within the Hall

1279
01:20:22,320 --> 01:20:26,360
Speaker 1: of Fame would only spark more interest in the Hall

1280
01:20:26,360 --> 01:20:29,479
Speaker 1: of Fame. And you know what's more entertaining than a

1281
01:20:29,520 --> 01:20:32,080
Speaker 1: good debate, since we if we're not going to debate

1282
01:20:32,120 --> 01:20:36,799
Speaker 1: who's in or who's out, let's debate where do they belong?

1283
01:20:37,080 --> 01:20:39,000
Speaker 1: Do they belong in the top tier? And then you

1284
01:20:39,040 --> 01:20:42,000
Speaker 1: would get look, Bonds and Clemens, they need to be in,

1285
01:20:43,439 --> 01:20:45,120
Speaker 1: but maybe you don't put them Well I don't know,

1286
01:20:45,240 --> 01:20:47,200
Speaker 1: am I going to put Clemens in the all time?

1287
01:20:47,240 --> 01:20:50,639
Speaker 1: You know, in in the sort of the the upper

1288
01:20:51,200 --> 01:20:54,200
Speaker 1: upper wing, you know, the ten you know that where

1289
01:20:54,240 --> 01:20:57,240
Speaker 1: maybe you only allow ten pictures at any one time,

1290
01:20:57,360 --> 01:21:00,400
Speaker 1: and the in the top ring of the Hall of Fame, say, well,

1291
01:21:00,479 --> 01:21:02,400
Speaker 1: we don't know how much how you know, we know

1292
01:21:02,520 --> 01:21:06,760
Speaker 1: he was Hall of Fame worthy, but you know, then

1293
01:21:06,920 --> 01:21:09,200
Speaker 1: you use the steroid rumors as a way to not

1294
01:21:09,360 --> 01:21:11,720
Speaker 1: give him the top spot. Maybe you do the same

1295
01:21:11,840 --> 01:21:16,680
Speaker 1: with bonds or with gambling with Rose, you do that.

1296
01:21:18,120 --> 01:21:19,719
Speaker 1: But I do think all of the Hall of Fames

1297
01:21:19,800 --> 01:21:25,320
Speaker 1: need a reboot. And I have to say, I think

1298
01:21:25,360 --> 01:21:27,240
Speaker 1: I would also try to figure out how to have

1299
01:21:28,720 --> 01:21:35,920
Speaker 1: fans plus writers, plus executives plus current players to all

1300
01:21:36,200 --> 01:21:40,040
Speaker 1: have some say. I wouldn't want any entity to be

1301
01:21:40,200 --> 01:21:44,519
Speaker 1: the dominant portion of the electorate, but I'd love a

1302
01:21:45,240 --> 01:21:48,120
Speaker 1: that the Hall of Fame electorate should be twenty five

1303
01:21:48,200 --> 01:21:51,240
Speaker 1: percent fans, and it should be some sort of maybe

1304
01:21:51,280 --> 01:21:53,559
Speaker 1: you've got to pass certain baseball quizzes to qualify as

1305
01:21:53,560 --> 01:21:55,640
Speaker 1: a voter. Yes, I would have a pull tax for this.

1306
01:21:56,160 --> 01:22:00,519
Speaker 1: Maybe it's twenty five percent baseball reporters, baseball writers, it's

1307
01:22:00,600 --> 01:22:04,880
Speaker 1: twenty five percent scouts and executives, and it's twenty five

1308
01:22:04,960 --> 01:22:10,560
Speaker 1: percent active players. And then maybe you would have the

1309
01:22:10,640 --> 01:22:12,920
Speaker 1: committee former Hall of famers be part of the different

1310
01:22:12,920 --> 01:22:16,920
Speaker 1: eras committees. But all of these and I think about

1311
01:22:16,920 --> 01:22:18,559
Speaker 1: it in the same way for basketball, and think about

1312
01:22:18,560 --> 01:22:22,280
Speaker 1: it the same way for football, but in general, I

1313
01:22:22,400 --> 01:22:26,080
Speaker 1: think all of these need some reanimation because I think

1314
01:22:26,080 --> 01:22:29,120
Speaker 1: it would just bring more life into them. And the

1315
01:22:29,240 --> 01:22:31,519
Speaker 1: more debate you have about the Hall of Fame, the

1316
01:22:31,640 --> 01:22:36,679
Speaker 1: more interested people will be in visiting the Hall of Fames,

1317
01:22:37,040 --> 01:22:39,200
Speaker 1: because guess what, at the end of the day, they're

1318
01:22:39,240 --> 01:22:42,880
Speaker 1: businesses and you need more interest in your business. And

1319
01:22:43,000 --> 01:22:46,840
Speaker 1: in an odd way, I think Baseball's made Cooper's Town

1320
01:22:46,960 --> 01:22:52,080
Speaker 1: less interesting because of how they've kept certain people out

1321
01:22:53,120 --> 01:22:55,840
Speaker 1: and how they've it's like, it's weirdly, it's like they

1322
01:22:55,960 --> 01:22:58,280
Speaker 1: raised the barrier for some and then lowered the barrier

1323
01:22:58,320 --> 01:23:01,639
Speaker 1: to entry for others. I think it's sent a weird

1324
01:23:01,720 --> 01:23:05,080
Speaker 1: message and it's just made the Hall of Fame generally

1325
01:23:05,200 --> 01:23:10,240
Speaker 1: less relevant than I wish it were. All right, old

1326
01:23:10,320 --> 01:23:13,800
Speaker 1: man sports rant is over with that. I hope you

1327
01:23:13,960 --> 01:23:18,679
Speaker 1: enjoy your weekend. Let's hope we don't stumble into any

1328
01:23:18,840 --> 01:23:25,000
Speaker 1: sort of geopolitical nightmares over the next ninety six hours. Please.

1329
01:23:25,600 --> 01:23:27,719
Speaker 1: I have my new Sphere show coming up this weekend.

1330
01:23:27,760 --> 01:23:29,760
Speaker 1: You can always check that out on the new Sphere app.

1331
01:23:29,840 --> 01:23:31,920
Speaker 1: I know I haven't promoted that a lot. I don't

1332
01:23:32,040 --> 01:23:34,320
Speaker 1: mean to not promote it here. I hope you've already

1333
01:23:34,400 --> 01:23:36,719
Speaker 1: checked it out. I know I get some questions based

1334
01:23:36,760 --> 01:23:40,360
Speaker 1: on that, so please do. That'll be posting as always

1335
01:23:40,600 --> 01:23:44,439
Speaker 1: on Sunday night, So with that, I'll see you next week.