1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Let's 5 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: see what our next guest, our first guest uh this 6 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: morning has to say. Stein Jakobsen is with us. He's 7 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: chief investment officer at Saxo Bank, joining us on this Wednesday. Steen. 8 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 1: Nice to have you here with Matt and myself. You know, 9 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:42,919 Speaker 1: it has been a year of extremes, even though it's 10 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 1: a little bit quiet on this Wednesday. But whether it's Bitcoin, 11 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 1: whether it's I p o s, whether it's SPACs, whether 12 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: it's some of those big fang stocks here in the 13 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: United States, and we've seen big global moves, how does 14 00:00:54,560 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: that carry over or maybe set the stage for it's 15 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: more of the same. And I think you're leading into 16 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 1: your question. The conversation between you and Matt is clearly 17 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 1: indicating that we all right now waiting for January four 18 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: and the runoff in Georgia to set the stage for 19 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: what is the next level? And I think to some 20 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: extent mix. McConnell is playing that card. He wants to 21 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:22,320 Speaker 1: be seen to be fiscally prudent into that sort of 22 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: leadoff uh and and designing what's going to be the 23 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 1: next two years before the midterm election. So I think 24 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 1: there's a very big political game going on in Washington 25 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: the terms of the US market, but in terms of 26 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: policy response, we know exactly what's going to happen in 27 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 1: twenty one. Any slowdown in economy, any increase in the 28 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: virus cases will be met by easier monetary policy by 29 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: fit and global center banks, and the fiscal person will 30 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 1: sit very very loose. On the politician, whatever color brand 31 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: ideas they come from. It's all about supporting a market 32 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 1: with no looking at the actual detail and non intended consequences. 33 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: So you know, most simulus but but I think for me, 34 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 1: but deep down, the only quasition that really matters to 35 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 1: me is where we end with ten year US interest 36 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: rate in one If it's hundred and fifty two hundred, 37 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: I think the rate sensitivity of the stock market will 38 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:21,639 Speaker 1: come to you really think, do you really think we'll 39 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: get to that rate on the tenure? Absolutely? Absolutely. I 40 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: think two things are going on I think we have 41 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:32,639 Speaker 1: been so dependent on the digital online transformation that the 42 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: physical world, the physical infrastructure no longer can actually follow 43 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: the success of that. So in other words, we've been 44 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 1: too successful in digitization and online sells going on to 45 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: the extent that ups and FedEx so they cannot get 46 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: vans to do the last mild delivery. We see shipping 47 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 1: rates across the group reaching all time highest together with 48 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: the stock market, not based on loose monetary policy, but 49 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 1: simply the fact that the infrastructure no longer is able 50 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 1: to deal with the success of this online story. That 51 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 1: is inflation in itself. On top of that, we have 52 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: had an un investment into the mining sector for years 53 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 1: upon years, and the same mining sector sixth centrally into 54 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 1: this theme of green transformation, the green Cabinet that Biden 55 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 1: talks about that he's appointed, the EU Deal which is green, 56 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: and of course China sixty. So absolutely I think inflation 57 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: is coming back in in one and and for the record, 58 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: I think growth would be much higher than the very 59 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 1: negative outlook that we have a simple link right now, 60 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: So one and a half percent to two percent um. 61 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: Does that mean we see more movement from the FED 62 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 1: at the year end, seeing if we see the ten 63 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 1: year rate get to that level. Of course, the position 64 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: of the FED right now is dovish, and with the 65 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: changes of the voting members coming into the Federal Reserve 66 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 1: Board for the new year, they're getting even more dovish. 67 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: So they come into the year with a very dovish 68 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: stands wanting to do more on the downside. So first 69 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: they need to move to manutral, which I think it's 70 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: really what's one is about for FET, but they could 71 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 1: if they've seen a huge price on on on inflation. 72 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 1: They will be caught short. Don't forget the FED does 73 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: not expect themselves in the dot plot to move before four. 74 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 1: That is absolutely unrealistic in my mind. And and for 75 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 1: the regged again, I think FED is one of the 76 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 1: worst predictors of growth in the US, if anybody of anybody. 77 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 1: So I'm just wondering because exactly they said they're gonna 78 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: hold pat until and if we do see the kind 79 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 1: of inflation that you're talking about, if we do see 80 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: rates creep up, if you know, assets continue, if markets 81 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: continue to act as irrationally exuberant as the Airbnb I 82 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: p O proved, the FED has to do something maybe 83 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: beyond moving to neutral, don't they Yeah, no, no, that 84 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: is my take, mat But I'm just making the case 85 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 1: here that we first need to move to MOODU and 86 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 1: then we move into a hiking cycle. And when we 87 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 1: get to the hiking cycle, I think we'll have a 88 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: detrimental negative impact on the stock market because the fact 89 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: is that if you look at the NaSTA two actually 90 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 1: actually in the hundred index, they have had no earnings 91 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: increases over the last two years. So all of the 92 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,719 Speaker 1: increase in valuation that receive in our technology mainly portfolio 93 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: is from the fact that we have an interest rate 94 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 1: sensitivity supporting the stocks. So in other words, the worst 95 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 1: economy gets, the more support you get from the interrates 96 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: sensitivity part and inverse, when we go to a high inflational, 97 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 1: higher steering rate, higher capacity utilization, yes, clearly the rate 98 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: sensitivity will be very negative for the technology in particular. 99 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 1: All right, Stevean, thanks so much for joining us. Really 100 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 1: appreciate your time. Stean Jacobson, Saxo Bank Chief Investment Officer, 101 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 1: I wish you a happy New Year, happy socially distanced 102 00:05:54,560 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: and masked New Year's Eve. We got to talk about 103 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: retail Matt because of course we're wrapping up the holiday 104 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 1: season and it was a holiday season unlike any others. 105 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 1: Want to get right to our guest because Jerry Storch 106 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: is with us a Storch Advisors UH. He's a management 107 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: UH and and advisory to UM a lot of other 108 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: retail companies that are out there. CEO and founder of 109 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 1: his own firm, former chairman ce of Toys Arrest, former 110 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 1: CEO of Hudson's Bay Company, former vice chairman of Targets, 111 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: so understands the retail industry so well. Jerry, Nice to 112 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: have you with Matt and myself on Bloomberg Surveillance. You know, 113 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 1: we've had the conversations about you know, a lot of 114 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 1: the trends that we've been seeing in retail got sped 115 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 1: up this year because of the pandemic. What trends really 116 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 1: stand out for you that you think are going to 117 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: be significant drivers of retail going forward? And good morning 118 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: by good morning, obviously you have to start with the 119 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: shift to e commerce. I mean, this is just massive. 120 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 1: It was happening before, but there's no doubt got tremendously accelerated. 121 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 1: I think what happened now is people who weren't as 122 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,359 Speaker 1: prone to use e commerce. They had to because it 123 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: was the safe way to buy things, and they found 124 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 1: out not so bad. So a lot of that's gonna stick, 125 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 1: so you will you have in vaccine and acceleration towards 126 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: e commerce. Another big trend is to shift away from apparel, 127 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 1: from clothing into hard lines, electronics, other types of physical goods, 128 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: and so apparel has been in long term decline and 129 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: if you look at over a ten year cycle, clothing 130 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 1: is down not so much. People are you know, are 131 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: wearing you know, going out without any clothes on, or 132 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: wearing less clothes, but there's been a big casualization of 133 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: the workforce, so you buy less expensive clothes, and then 134 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 1: even for the same clothes, the average price point is 135 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 1: declined with the advent of fast fashion and all the 136 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: discounters taking huge markets. I mean, the basest clothing sellers 137 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 1: in the US right now are Walmart targeting Amazon. So 138 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: the average price points to claim. So what are people 139 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: doing with that money. They're buying hardlines, they're buying electronics, 140 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: and now in the pandemic for the home, and you know, I, 141 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: for one, I don't think I'm alone. You know, I 142 00:07:57,600 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: started learning more about how to bake. And now that 143 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: I of the pathos and the chemistry of banking, I'm 144 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 1: gonna keep banking. So there's gonna be a lot of shift, 145 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: even more ecceler away from apparel and towards home. You 146 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 1: have the shift away from their apartment starts and towards 147 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: the discount stores. That's continuing, only accelerated by the pandemic. 148 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: It's funny I as well, Jerry, have really taken up 149 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 1: cooking over um the past few weeks and months only 150 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 1: because of this lockdown. I will point out one retailer 151 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: that one clothing retailer has done quite well, at least partially. 152 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: Clothing is l brands more than doubled this year. But 153 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: that's because, of course they don't sell office closed right, Um, 154 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: they sell maybe the less appropriate things you would wear 155 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 1: the office for Victoria's secret or the things that you 156 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 1: would use at home, like bath and body works. We 157 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 1: had a guest on a little bit earlier, seen Jakopson, 158 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: who said, one of the big problems for retailers right now, Jerry, 159 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: is that, um, the logistics is so expensive shipping stuff. 160 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: You can't find a truck out there, you know, tough 161 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: to get things on boats at a decent price. Do 162 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 1: you see that kind of inflation for companies that need 163 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: to shift their goods to people who now order everything 164 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 1: on the internet. Well, I think there's the real topic 165 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 1: is that is that there's a negative arbitrage in the 166 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 1: marginal profitability of an item that you sell and delivered 167 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: to someone's home on the internet versus when the customer 168 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:25,319 Speaker 1: comes walking into the store and does all the transportation 169 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: themselves and by it just picks it off the shelf 170 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 1: and takes it home. And so for a lot of retailers, 171 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: a lot of companies, this is the most frequent, by 172 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: the way, assignment that I get its storage advisors help 173 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 1: people figure this out. For a lot of retailers, they 174 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 1: have to sell twice as much on the inner twice 175 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:43,319 Speaker 1: do you get the same marginal economics the same marginal 176 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 1: profitability is what they sell in store, because you already 177 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: have the stores, all the people already there, and the 178 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: customer does that last leg themselves. So that's really the 179 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:54,199 Speaker 1: biggest issue. And by the way, during the pandemic, FedEx 180 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 1: and ups, if you know, they've had capacity constraints and 181 00:09:57,520 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: they said okay, let the market clear it and they 182 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 1: raise their prices. They put in big search charges, so 183 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: it's costs more than it normally did. Eventually that will equalize, 184 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 1: that will come down. So I think over time, as 185 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 1: the system gets built out, is E commerces a higher 186 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: percentage of total sales, that penalty goes down, and that 187 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: freight penalty goes down over a period of years, not instantly, 188 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,439 Speaker 1: but but and for some companies, what I like to 189 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 1: look at as the margin pool. You know, how many 190 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:24,079 Speaker 1: dollars a margin or in that shipment you're sending someone, 191 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: you know, a pack of toilet paper. There's not a 192 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: lot of margin, but it's but it's bulky, you know, 193 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: is it's related to the cube more than anything else. 194 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 1: But if it's a you know, a diamond ring, no problem, 195 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:35,560 Speaker 1: you know, because you could a thousand dollar ring, you 196 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: could have fifty five margin. The thing the transportation cost 197 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: doesn't matter, but it does when it's only a dollar 198 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: or two. And that's why you have to look at 199 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: each retailer separately and say who has best marginal economics? 200 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 1: So there's the best you know, margin pool to ship 201 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 1: that product to the home, so that the shipping becomes 202 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 1: less and for a luxury retailer. You know, it's not 203 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 1: very important because the customers are spending a lot of 204 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 1: money with a big margin rate. The shipping cost is 205 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: trivial compared to the overall margin pool. Yeah, and listen. 206 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: Want to ask you, though, Jerry, if you go up 207 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:03,319 Speaker 1: and down the avenues here in New York, even across 208 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: from Bloomberg headquarters, there's multiple retail stores that were here 209 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: before the pandemic and they're not anymore. Who takes advantage 210 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,559 Speaker 1: of that retail property on the other side of the pandemic. 211 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:16,319 Speaker 1: Who are the retailers that you think are going to 212 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,199 Speaker 1: be able to snap up some of those smaller, smaller locations. 213 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: Are are that really need more locations at this point 214 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: that there will be demand for their goods? We have 215 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: to separate New York real estate from all the rest. 216 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 1: You know, it's very different in Manhattan than it is 217 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: elsewhere in the world. For most of the United States, 218 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,719 Speaker 1: the winners are clear. It's target Walmart Costco. You know, 219 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: it's big discount change. They have done fantastic, not only 220 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: by the way on the Internet, but a lot of 221 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:42,959 Speaker 1: times their store numbers have been up when you look 222 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 1: at how they're because people have had fewer places to 223 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: go to, and they've been consoliding that it was making 224 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 1: big average ticket purchases when they go to those places. 225 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 1: So those are those are are big winners. Other big 226 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 1: winners of the home people like home Depot and Lows. 227 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: These numbers have been phenomenal that they're reporting, and I 228 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 1: don't think that's going to you know, soften, but it's 229 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: not going to change in terms of the middle long 230 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 1: term trend as we were discussing other warreas, people like 231 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 1: the dollar stores, I mean dollar in general, it's just 232 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: hitting it out of the park day day, week after 233 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: a week. So were the so his Family Dollar. Now 234 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: that you know that, they've got all the trends in 235 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: their direction, so I think a lot of it's gonna 236 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 1: go to people like people like this. The Mama Pops 237 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 1: are getting crushed. I mean they're absolutely get in crush. 238 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: I mean, if you only have a single store, you 239 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: can't really you know, you have a limited line of offering. 240 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 1: You've been killed by the pandemic, maybe you weren't declared essential. 241 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: Beyond that, you have capacity restraints, constraints. Meanwhile, you can't 242 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: even afford to set up a really great internet site. 243 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:35,079 Speaker 1: Needed it could you wouldn't have to get the traffic 244 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:37,719 Speaker 1: to a because of fortune to pay Google Facebook for 245 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: the ads. Thin get the traffic. I gotta jump in. 246 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: I wish we had like an hour just to talk 247 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 1: with you. We're gonna have to get you back because 248 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 1: I love talking about retail and there's so much going on. 249 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 1: Jerry's Stort of Storage Advisor's former CEO of Toys r 250 00:12:49,480 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 1: Us and Hudson's Bay. Let's bring in a guest who 251 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 1: has a lot of experience with this kind of thing, 252 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 1: even though it's been a while since a value rotation. 253 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,959 Speaker 1: Jim Paulson from luth Old Weeden Capital Management. He's the 254 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:14,839 Speaker 1: chief investment officer there. I'm not saying you're old, but 255 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 1: let's say you're our age. Jim. You fit in the 256 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: same demographic with me and Carol. You were there the 257 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: last time value stocks for hip. He's seen a lot 258 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 1: of cycles, is what you're saying. Absolutely, So are we 259 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,440 Speaker 1: going to see it again? Is is it possible that 260 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: we rotate out of growth and into value now that 261 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: actually some of the stocks I think of his growth 262 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 1: docks could now be value stocks. You don't um I've 263 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: sort of I've sort of moved away from thinking a 264 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 1: lot about value or growth. UM. I thought more about 265 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:55,839 Speaker 1: sectors because I think ever since the dot com boom, 266 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: we have really screwed up kind of the value growth 267 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 1: trade off. There. There's a lot of times all own 268 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: parts of value and parts of growth, and I think 269 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,200 Speaker 1: that's a better way to approach it. I think a 270 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 1: lot of the value space is already starting to outperform 271 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: and will uh continue to outperform UM. But I wouldn't 272 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 1: necessarily just buy a value et F, you know, I'd 273 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 1: still look at sectors. I think there's some sectors in there, 274 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 1: the traditional value sectors I really like. I really like 275 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 1: the global synchronized recovery play, which to me really hits 276 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: a lot of industrials and materials UH sectors, traditional more 277 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: value plays. I like the idea that we're gonna have 278 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 1: probably in one the fastest world growth rate in a 279 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: long time, and particularly United States, maybe the fastest world. 280 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 1: Fastest growth here UM, I think it's gonna be around 281 00:14:56,520 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: six percent, so maybe uh since and to me, UM 282 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: that says interest rates fields go up this year, which 283 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: would favor I take the financials in the big way. 284 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 1: Traditional value play um so Jim, wait, wait, Jim, let 285 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 1: me jump in, Let me jump in, because um Stean Jakobson, 286 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 1: who we had on earlier UM talked about a tenure 287 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 1: maybe hitting one and a half two per cent, And 288 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: I do wonder if, indeed we start to see rates 289 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: going higher, if we see some signs of inflation, how 290 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 1: does that play out essentially though, when it comes to 291 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 1: FED policy, and what does that then translate into the 292 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 1: financial markets, the equity markets. Do we see then ultimately 293 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 1: a pullback as a result, even though we're seeing strong 294 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 1: growth in the economy. Well, I I think that one 295 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: of the things that's really interesting. There's a lot of 296 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: unique aspects carroll about where we are today, but one 297 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: of them is that this record setting low yield environment 298 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 1: and really inflation environment simultaneously. So when we as we 299 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: lift off into this new recovery, we're not lifting off 300 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 1: for three or four percent yields and three or four 301 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 1: three percent inflation. We're lifting for record unprecedented levels. And 302 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 1: I think they could go up a fairer ways before 303 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 1: they really become problematic for the economy and for the 304 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: stock market. UM. I look back, for example, the nineteen 305 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 1: hundred just recently, Carroll and took all the months when 306 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 1: bond yields have been below three and looked at what's 307 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: the impact on the stock market when they go up 308 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 1: versus what they generally did if they're about three percent. 309 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: When they've been about three percent, which is about seventy 310 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 1: at a time since nineteen the stock market actually goes 311 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 1: down on average when on UH when rates go up, 312 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: But when you're below three percent, higher rates actually lead 313 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: to a better stock market by a wide margin. In fact, 314 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: all the months that we've been had a tenure yield 315 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: below three stock market when when they went up the 316 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: stock mark and analyze almost games and I think the differences. 317 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 1: If we take the bond yield from below one to two, 318 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 1: it will actually boost confidence in the future. It might 319 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 1: stoke animal spirits in the economy, moving us away from 320 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 1: years of negative yields in the United States and the like. 321 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 1: So I think I think that will actually be a 322 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,640 Speaker 1: positive relian negative for a while. Got it, Jim, Thank 323 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 1: you so much, Jim Paulson, Luther Oldweden Capital of course. Uh. 324 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: The ce IO over there. Dr Mercedes Carnathon is Northwestern 325 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: University professor and preventive Medicine, also Vice Chair of the 326 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 1: Department of Preventive Medicine, joining us here, Um, nice to 327 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: have you here with us, Mercedes. Let's talk about what's 328 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,639 Speaker 1: going on here. And you know, President like Joe Biden 329 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,959 Speaker 1: coming out, he's worried about the distribution and logistics. You 330 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:02,440 Speaker 1: are hearing about it, seeing about at firsthand, there's hiccups. 331 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: Are you concerned that it's going to take a lot 332 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: longer than everybody anticipated? You know, certainly the original projections 333 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: of twenty million doses being in the arms of people 334 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: by the end of was ambitious, and you know, it's 335 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 1: it's fine to set ambitious and lofty goals. I think 336 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 1: what we found out in the process was that it 337 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 1: was a little more complicated than we thought, and so 338 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: that's not unexpected to see that hiccup. But I am 339 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 1: concerned about these projections that it would take ten years 340 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: at the current rate to vaccinate this many people. But 341 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,199 Speaker 1: you know, of course, when you start something up, it 342 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,920 Speaker 1: tends to be a little slower. I feel very hopeful 343 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 1: that the pace of this will start to pick up, 344 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,159 Speaker 1: But as it does pick up, it's going to become 345 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 1: more logistically complex to determine who is eligible for vaccination. 346 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 1: You know, one of the interesting things that we've been 347 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: talking about a lot here, Mercedes, is the possibility that, um, 348 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 1: if you don't get the vac seeing, maybe your name 349 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:02,679 Speaker 1: is going to go on a list. I think Spain 350 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,159 Speaker 1: is doing that if you refuse it. If you do 351 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: get the vaccine, maybe you get to get on a 352 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 1: plane or go in a restaurant, you get special privileges. 353 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 1: Are they talking about that in the US as well? 354 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 1: You know, there have been a lot of discussions about 355 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:19,400 Speaker 1: whether or not you can compel individuals in the US 356 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 1: to become vaccinated. Now, they are always going to be exceptions. 357 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:28,679 Speaker 1: But my understanding is that employers can require vaccination as 358 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,360 Speaker 1: a term of employment. Schools can do that, but they 359 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: do have to allow for exceptions. But I think where 360 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 1: this where this will become an interesting debate, but not 361 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 1: a theoretical one, because it has such real implications, is 362 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: that what if employees in a workplace refuse to vaccinate 363 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 1: and then they become sick at work, whose responsibility is 364 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 1: it going to be to pay for that sickness if 365 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 1: they allow those individuals, and what if their illness puts 366 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: the clients or the patrons of that business at risk. 367 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:06,120 Speaker 1: I think the simple example of school systems, will school 368 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: teachers that administrators be required to vaccinate since as you 369 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: know right now, Uh, these vaccines are not approved for children, 370 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,919 Speaker 1: yet we do know they're in the US two million 371 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 1: children have contracted Uh great nineteen. Well, it's just a 372 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 1: reminder that we still need more testing and that testing continues. 373 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,199 Speaker 1: But I do wonder, Mercedes Um, that this speaks to 374 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,120 Speaker 1: we supposedly had months that we were working on logistics 375 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 1: for the distribution of a vaccine. We knew it was coming. 376 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: Operation warp speed was full speed ahead. Uh, if you will, 377 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:41,199 Speaker 1: I do wonder that, uh, if things aren't going as 378 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 1: quickly as they are right now. And I understand, you 379 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: give the vaccine, you've got to wait fifteen minutes or 380 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 1: thirty minutes to make sure that there's no reaction for 381 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 1: an individual. But do we need to see some kind 382 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,159 Speaker 1: of like we're at war against this this virus, that 383 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 1: we need to see some kind of plan program, more 384 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,199 Speaker 1: coordinated coming from the FED government to make sure that 385 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: we can get this out much more quickly. Because my 386 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: understanding is from the pharmaceutical companies that they've distributed millions 387 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 1: of doses, and yet we haven't seen that necessarily show 388 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:14,400 Speaker 1: up in the actual vaccination numbers. Now that's a really 389 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: good point, and Operational Warp Speed accomplished its goal of 390 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:22,400 Speaker 1: generating effective vaccines and record time. They talked about how 391 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 1: to get them out to the states in the United States, 392 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: but they didn't do any work on setting up the 393 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 1: infrastructure to be able to deliver those vaccines. So it's 394 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,959 Speaker 1: sort of like getting almost to the finish line and 395 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 1: stopping to wave and take credit without actually seeing it through. 396 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 1: There are a lot of details around getting the vaccine 397 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 1: into the arms of individuals, and right now we're in 398 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 1: the easy phase because we're just um vaccinating healthcare providers 399 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 1: and individuals in long term care facilities. We know where 400 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 1: those people are. We can verify who they are and 401 00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 1: what they do. What's going to happen when it's time 402 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 1: to vaccinate in a variety of tears other essential workers. 403 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 1: I mean, I work as a professor in a in 404 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 1: a university. Will I be eligible? I don't teach students 405 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 1: face to face, so where would I be on the 406 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 1: priority list? So all of these are really complicated things 407 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 1: that you know somebody actually has to sit down and 408 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: thinks through, Hey, listen, we've got to run, Mercedes. I mean, 409 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,400 Speaker 1: the virus is just one of those subjects we could 410 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,239 Speaker 1: go on and on. Mercedes Carnathon. She's Vice chair at 411 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: the Department of Preventive Medicine at Northwestern Fineberg School of Medicine. 412 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 413 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 414 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before 415 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg 416 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 1: Radio