WEBVTT - Motivated Reasoning in the Biden Campaign, Silicon Valley, and Beyond 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:23.604 Pushkin. Hey everyone, it's Maria reminding you to send in 0:00:23.684 --> 0:00:28.444 your questions about decision making, stats and psychology. Each week 0:00:28.484 --> 0:00:32.044 we answer one for Pushkin Plus members and sometimes they 0:00:32.084 --> 0:00:35.204 make it into the regular episodes as well. Either way, 0:00:35.244 --> 0:00:38.044 it's a great way to support the show. Reach out 0:00:38.084 --> 0:00:40.724 to us on social media or email us at Risky 0:00:40.724 --> 0:00:44.564 Business at pushkin dot fm. We look forward to hearing 0:00:44.604 --> 0:00:54.564 from you. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about 0:00:54.564 --> 0:00:57.524 making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 0:00:57.164 --> 0:00:59.564 And I'm Mate Silver. What's the thing with the show, Maria, 0:00:59.604 --> 0:01:03.484 I think today is people who just won't go away. 0:01:03.644 --> 0:01:08.084 So there have been new books out on President Biden's 0:01:08.204 --> 0:01:12.124 condition during his twilight in office. Biden was also diagnosed 0:01:12.164 --> 0:01:14.684 with cancer. This week, in art condolences to him and 0:01:14.724 --> 0:01:18.044 his family, we'll talk about We'll talk about will flog 0:01:18.084 --> 0:01:20.124 the Biden horse one more time? Maria. 0:01:20.284 --> 0:01:25.524 We'll be talking about Biden's decision or a lack thereof, 0:01:25.604 --> 0:01:28.244 to step down in a timely fashion, what that meant, 0:01:28.324 --> 0:01:31.684 and some psychology behind it. Yes, And then in other 0:01:31.764 --> 0:01:34.164 people who we just can't stop talking about, We'll be 0:01:34.204 --> 0:01:38.404 talking about Elizabeth Holmes, Theahos and Elizabeth Holmes's partner Billy 0:01:38.444 --> 0:01:43.564 Evans and his new startup, which, surprise surprise, promises an 0:01:43.604 --> 0:01:46.444 innovative way of testing blood. 0:01:46.724 --> 0:01:49.084 The Alstamux cherl manager Nico Harrison. It's not in the 0:01:49.084 --> 0:01:51.324 same league as Joe Biden or Elizabeth Holmes. He just 0:01:51.364 --> 0:01:54.364 made an extremely stupid trade early this year, but he 0:01:54.444 --> 0:01:57.244 was rewarded for it with the number one overall pick 0:01:57.324 --> 0:01:59.884 in the NBA draft, likely to be Cooper Flagg. We'll 0:01:59.924 --> 0:02:03.444 talk about is the NBA draft lottery rigged? Of course 0:02:03.444 --> 0:02:04.244 it isn't. Hahaha. 0:02:06.124 --> 0:02:15.724 Let's get into it night, Nate. Way back when you 0:02:15.764 --> 0:02:18.724 were one of the first prominent voices to say that 0:02:18.764 --> 0:02:21.444 Biden should not be running for reelection and that he 0:02:21.524 --> 0:02:23.964 should be stepping down, and you got a lot of 0:02:24.004 --> 0:02:27.164 hate for that. When you were saying it, almost no 0:02:27.204 --> 0:02:29.924 one else was, and you know it was. It was 0:02:29.964 --> 0:02:33.604 a big deal. And now we've got several books coming 0:02:33.644 --> 0:02:37.604 out that basically say, oops, more people should have been 0:02:37.604 --> 0:02:40.284 saying it. They should have been saying it earlier, and 0:02:40.884 --> 0:02:43.884 what a clusterfuck. Let's let's talk a little bit about that. 0:02:44.404 --> 0:02:46.884 Yeah, So there are a few things that make this relevant. 0:02:47.004 --> 0:02:50.164 Right when we have talked on this program before about 0:02:50.164 --> 0:02:54.884 the book Fight by Jonathan Allen and Amy Parnes. There's 0:02:54.924 --> 0:03:00.244 another book called Original Sin, which takes a slightly longer exposure. 0:03:00.644 --> 0:03:04.164 Fights mostly about the period where Biden has a terrible 0:03:04.164 --> 0:03:07.164 debate and then is kind of forced drap out. This 0:03:07.244 --> 0:03:09.244 takes a longer lens. I'm not running yet. I've read 0:03:09.444 --> 0:03:13.164 the extensive excerpts and previews of it. That's one thing. Right. 0:03:14.284 --> 0:03:18.364 Number Two, Joe Biden over the weekend was diagnosed with 0:03:19.524 --> 0:03:26.524 I believe stage for prostate cancer. Correct, yes, correct, That 0:03:26.604 --> 0:03:30.564 has spread to his bones. It's a pretty advanced stage. 0:03:31.284 --> 0:03:36.364 So our condolences to Biden's family. But this is not 0:03:36.804 --> 0:03:41.644 entirely non germane to the topic at hand. Right. Third, 0:03:41.964 --> 0:03:45.004 the audio transcript of one of the earlier warning signs 0:03:45.004 --> 0:03:50.084 for Biden was he was under investigation by a special 0:03:50.084 --> 0:03:55.124 counsel named Robert her last year for document actually two 0:03:55.164 --> 0:03:57.964 years ago, I guess right. For document retention practice is 0:03:58.044 --> 0:04:00.204 the thing that no president seems to be very careful 0:04:00.204 --> 0:04:04.324 about these days. Her issued her reports. I'm not going 0:04:04.404 --> 0:04:06.844 to charge him because he's quote an elderly man with 0:04:06.924 --> 0:04:10.004 a poor memory, and what's the right he's gonna go 0:04:10.044 --> 0:04:13.924 over to the witness stand and forget half the shit anyway. Right, So, 0:04:14.084 --> 0:04:16.084 of course all of the Biden people and all the 0:04:17.284 --> 0:04:22.364 apparently nonpartisan media flipped out about this when it happened. However, 0:04:22.524 --> 0:04:27.524 the Biden White House refused to release the audio or 0:04:27.564 --> 0:04:30.964 the video of these interviews, right, making up some bullshit 0:04:31.044 --> 0:04:32.964 excuse that only stupid people bought. But there are lot 0:04:33.004 --> 0:04:34.884 of stupid people in election years, right. And so now 0:04:34.884 --> 0:04:38.324 the audio's out, and like Biden's stuttering and stammering, it's 0:04:38.364 --> 0:04:41.644 not any different than you would expecting that they were 0:04:41.684 --> 0:04:45.124 afraid of it being being released. But still that shines 0:04:45.164 --> 0:04:47.004 more of a lens on the story. But Marie, can 0:04:47.084 --> 0:04:49.764 I give you the kind of hard questions so I 0:04:49.804 --> 0:04:53.204 don't have to answer it? First? How did you feel 0:04:53.204 --> 0:04:56.204 when you heard about the cancer news? 0:04:57.284 --> 0:05:00.724 I felt obviously absolutely uh horrible for Biden. I mean, 0:05:00.804 --> 0:05:04.044 I don't wish that on anyone. I also, you know, 0:05:04.284 --> 0:05:07.604 I think that you know, we're in a really shitty 0:05:07.644 --> 0:05:12.124 situation right now and the country is really really hurting, 0:05:12.364 --> 0:05:15.004 and we've talked on this pod a lot. It doesn't 0:05:15.044 --> 0:05:18.604 really matter kind of what someone's political leanings are to 0:05:18.644 --> 0:05:21.284 be able to point to some things like you know, 0:05:21.324 --> 0:05:25.884 what's happened to usaid, to scientific funding, to research, to innovation, 0:05:26.324 --> 0:05:28.604 you know, tariffs, as we've talked about many, many times, 0:05:28.764 --> 0:05:31.924 to all of these facets of American life, First Amendment protections, 0:05:32.284 --> 0:05:36.204 all of these things. And you know, that's I don't 0:05:36.204 --> 0:05:38.804 want to say squarely on Biden's shoulders, but a lot 0:05:38.804 --> 0:05:42.964 of that is on Biden's shoulders for you know, refusing 0:05:43.004 --> 0:05:44.964 to do what he said he would do. Right, if 0:05:45.004 --> 0:05:48.524 you remember Nate, you probably actually remember this quote more 0:05:48.564 --> 0:05:51.524 accurately than I do. But what was his what was 0:05:52.444 --> 0:05:54.684 his way of phrasing it when he was elected the 0:05:54.684 --> 0:05:56.084 first time? Right? I think he said that he was 0:05:56.124 --> 0:05:58.724 going to be a bridge, right, something like that, that 0:05:58.764 --> 0:06:01.084 he was someone who was going to be a bridge 0:06:01.124 --> 0:06:04.724 to kind of protect against Trump and bring America forward. 0:06:05.124 --> 0:06:07.724 And then you know, a bridge ends, right, A bridge 0:06:07.764 --> 0:06:10.724 goes from bank to bank, and then you get off 0:06:10.764 --> 0:06:13.724 and you're on the other side. And at some point 0:06:13.764 --> 0:06:16.924 he decided that no, he wasn't really going to be 0:06:16.964 --> 0:06:18.964 a bridge. He was also he was also going to 0:06:18.964 --> 0:06:20.564 be the road on the other side, and he was 0:06:20.604 --> 0:06:24.844 the correct person to continue to continue on forward. And 0:06:25.884 --> 0:06:28.244 you know, here here's where we are. So I feel, 0:06:28.444 --> 0:06:32.884 you know, the two things are not related, somewhat related. 0:06:32.884 --> 0:06:34.764 I don't even know. I feel awful, right, Like, no 0:06:34.804 --> 0:06:37.444 one deserves an aggressive form of cancer. I wish I 0:06:37.484 --> 0:06:41.244 wish him quick, speedy recovery. I hope that they can 0:06:41.284 --> 0:06:43.804 treat it, you know, I hope that he has a 0:06:43.844 --> 0:06:47.644 comfortable old age. But I'm not in a very pro 0:06:47.724 --> 0:06:49.924 biden frame of mind in general. 0:06:50.404 --> 0:06:54.884 Yeah, I have trouble mustering up that much sympathy under 0:06:54.924 --> 0:07:01.564 the circumstances, right, And the reason why is because I 0:07:01.644 --> 0:07:04.804 think probabilistically right, and like that's part of what colors 0:07:04.804 --> 0:07:06.764 the whole analysis to begin with, where like someone hits 0:07:06.764 --> 0:07:08.964 this age and that's a problem. But also if you 0:07:09.204 --> 0:07:14.484 are are now being diagnosed with this very aggressive cancer, right, 0:07:16.324 --> 0:07:19.524 wouldn't there have been signs of it before? I mean, 0:07:20.004 --> 0:07:24.244 you know, I asked chet GPT the three model. People 0:07:24.284 --> 0:07:27.044 have different opinions on how appropriate is for medical diagnosis. 0:07:27.044 --> 0:07:29.444 But it's trying to summarize a bunch of research on 0:07:29.484 --> 0:07:31.524 the Internet and in journals and things like that, and 0:07:31.564 --> 0:07:34.924 it's said, yeah, there's a high probability that at the 0:07:34.964 --> 0:07:40.204 cancer is this advanced that it would have been detectable 0:07:40.444 --> 0:07:42.164 a year or so earlier. It's like an eighty or 0:07:42.244 --> 0:07:46.124 ninety percent chance. Right. So there's reporting I'm going to 0:07:46.164 --> 0:07:50.884 have not read original sin. There's reporting in fight about 0:07:50.884 --> 0:07:54.604 how you know, Biden's kind of avoiding the doctor quite 0:07:54.604 --> 0:07:56.244 a bit once his health becomes an issue. We just 0:07:56.324 --> 0:07:58.764 kind of just want to give people rope for this thing. 0:07:59.044 --> 0:08:02.244 And it's like, okay, so that's not great, right. You 0:08:02.244 --> 0:08:04.244 would think that after the debate you would say, Okay, 0:08:04.244 --> 0:08:06.404 I got everything checked out and a couple of problems, 0:08:06.404 --> 0:08:08.084 but here's a complete report. And instead he's kind of 0:08:08.124 --> 0:08:11.124 like pulling it Trump where he has these personal doctors 0:08:11.164 --> 0:08:14.404 that frankly aren't very fucking credible, right, or that the 0:08:14.484 --> 0:08:17.364 diagnosis had been made before and they you want to 0:08:17.364 --> 0:08:19.244 disclose it. I don't. 0:08:19.324 --> 0:08:22.404 Well, either of those things is pretty damning, because the 0:08:22.484 --> 0:08:25.284 first is, you know, we've I think we've all been 0:08:25.324 --> 0:08:29.204 there or you know that moment where like you think 0:08:29.244 --> 0:08:31.444 something's wrong and you're kind of in denial and you 0:08:31.444 --> 0:08:34.284 don't want to go to the doctor because because you 0:08:34.284 --> 0:08:36.524 don't want to confirm it. So you're like, I'm just 0:08:36.564 --> 0:08:38.524 going to put off this appointment, right, Like it's not 0:08:38.564 --> 0:08:42.124 that important because you you kind of you don't want 0:08:42.124 --> 0:08:45.324 to know. It's a very very human response. And but 0:08:45.404 --> 0:08:47.964 if you're kind of a president, then you have a 0:08:48.004 --> 0:08:52.364 responsibility to make sure that, Okay, I'm functioning well, I'm 0:08:52.404 --> 0:08:56.644 firing on all cylinders. There's nothing actually wrong because I have, 0:08:56.724 --> 0:08:59.724 you know, the weight of the country on my shoulders. 0:08:59.844 --> 0:09:03.164 So if he's avoiding the doctor, that's damning. However, if 0:09:03.204 --> 0:09:05.964 he goes and he knows that he has this cancer 0:09:05.964 --> 0:09:09.364 diagnosis and he hides it, that's also damning, right because 0:09:09.484 --> 0:09:12.364 if you have stage four cancer, get the fuck out 0:09:12.404 --> 0:09:15.084 of the race, right, Like that is something that is 0:09:15.484 --> 0:09:17.924 you know, it's awful, and like you should you should 0:09:18.004 --> 0:09:21.804 in no way be running for the presidency. I mean 0:09:22.044 --> 0:09:24.764 you should be at home focusing on your health, recovering. 0:09:25.364 --> 0:09:28.484 If he had received that diagnosis during his presidency, frankly, 0:09:28.524 --> 0:09:31.004 he should have resigned right then and there, passed over 0:09:31.044 --> 0:09:34.804 the presidency to Kamala Harris and said, you know, I'm 0:09:34.844 --> 0:09:37.484 dealing with stage four cancer. I'm you know, I'm really sorry. 0:09:37.524 --> 0:09:40.084 I'm doing what's best for the country. So either way, 0:09:40.204 --> 0:09:43.524 whether he was avoiding the doctors or whether he knew 0:09:44.084 --> 0:09:47.644 and I have no idea, right, Obviously, neither one is 0:09:47.644 --> 0:09:52.764 a very good look for him as the president. And 0:09:52.924 --> 0:09:55.844 if we also just zoom out, like Nate, imagine that 0:09:55.884 --> 0:09:58.724 he had gotten reelected, right, and right now we're in 0:09:59.284 --> 0:10:02.324 We're in term two of the Biden presidency, and this 0:10:02.404 --> 0:10:05.164 news comes out this weekend, you know, four months in, 0:10:05.524 --> 0:10:07.524 and then everyone who says, you know, Biden is who 0:10:07.724 --> 0:10:10.164 was too old? Everyone's like, what are we even doing? 0:10:10.244 --> 0:10:11.204 Like how did we get here? 0:10:11.284 --> 0:10:11.444 Right? 0:10:11.884 --> 0:10:15.844 So, so the counterfactual is also kind of scary to 0:10:15.844 --> 0:10:16.244 think about. 0:10:16.964 --> 0:10:18.564 No, I mean, and you imagine if this had news 0:10:18.564 --> 0:10:21.964 had come out, then I think he would resign the presidency. 0:10:22.004 --> 0:10:24.404 I don't know, we would hope so, but at this 0:10:24.484 --> 0:10:27.684 point we don't know, right, given how he behaved during 0:10:27.884 --> 0:10:28.284 during a. 0:10:28.644 --> 0:10:32.884 I mean, it's so impossible to imagine him winning, Like 0:10:33.004 --> 0:10:35.244 if somehow, I don't know, I mean, if somehow he 0:10:35.284 --> 0:10:37.484 had won, I mean, it would be I think, a 0:10:37.484 --> 0:10:41.284 disastrous presidency, you know what I mean, and in different ways, 0:10:42.684 --> 0:10:44.844 in different but like I again, I said on this 0:10:44.884 --> 0:10:49.004 program that you know, I was not going to vote 0:10:49.004 --> 0:10:51.764 for Joe Biden. My vote doesn't really matter, right, And 0:10:51.804 --> 0:10:55.884 I feel extremely validated in that, right, I with perfect hindsight. 0:10:55.924 --> 0:10:57.484 I mean, I wouldn't vote for Trump, but like I'm 0:10:57.524 --> 0:10:59.804 even further away from ever thinking it was appropriate to 0:10:59.844 --> 0:11:01.764 cast a vote for somebody who I mean again, in 0:11:02.364 --> 0:11:05.284 reporting these books suggests that people around him were worried 0:11:05.364 --> 0:11:08.964 about his ability to perform in a crisis, Right, you know, 0:11:09.244 --> 0:11:11.244 if you have a red phone moment and then his 0:11:11.324 --> 0:11:15.844 people like, well, is there aren't really any nothing disastrous happened. Well, 0:11:15.884 --> 0:11:16.684 I don't know, right. 0:11:16.564 --> 0:11:18.404 We got lucky, We got lucky. 0:11:18.644 --> 0:11:21.244 That is also, I mean, the world is less peaceful 0:11:21.284 --> 0:11:24.684 than when Ryden took over, right, I mean, Israel and 0:11:24.764 --> 0:11:27.484 the Middle East are at war, and Ukraine, I mean 0:11:27.484 --> 0:11:32.204 it's the most serious incursion into European territory in many years. Right, 0:11:32.364 --> 0:11:36.644 our relationship with China saturating. Indian Pakistan are not real 0:11:36.724 --> 0:11:39.284 happy with each other right now, you know, So I 0:11:39.284 --> 0:11:41.084 don't know. I mean, you know, when he was like 0:11:41.204 --> 0:11:43.404 taking these special council meetings, was like, right at the 0:11:43.444 --> 0:11:46.884 same time that October seventh happens, was like off the 0:11:46.884 --> 0:11:49.204 phone with BBE and into these meetings. It's like, okay, Well, 0:11:49.204 --> 0:11:51.124 if you're kind of like not able to like coherently 0:11:51.124 --> 0:11:53.084 remember names, and dates, and like what if there is 0:11:53.124 --> 0:11:55.884 a cute point of strategy that the United States wants 0:11:55.924 --> 0:11:58.404 to articulate or point of leverage. Right, it's just a 0:11:58.484 --> 0:12:05.524 really huge scandal. It's a huge scandal. And you know, 0:12:05.964 --> 0:12:11.364 in some ways, I guess Democrats are lucky, e they're 0:12:11.364 --> 0:12:13.324 not suffering from it more, you know, I mean, I 0:12:13.364 --> 0:12:14.604 don't know with a long term effect. I mean, I 0:12:14.644 --> 0:12:17.964 think Biden at some point we'll just kind of go away, right, 0:12:18.044 --> 0:12:22.604 But like, but like it's it's news worth talking about 0:12:23.044 --> 0:12:26.284 even in May of the year after the election, because 0:12:27.124 --> 0:12:30.004 you know, it's one of the biggest dafts. I mean, 0:12:30.044 --> 0:12:31.564 that's not the way to put it. One of the 0:12:31.564 --> 0:12:36.204 biggest knowable errors, stubborn errors of judgment, repeated errors of 0:12:36.244 --> 0:12:39.844 judgment by Biden and the people around him, and by 0:12:39.884 --> 0:12:42.364 the media frankly who kind of had the I mean, 0:12:42.404 --> 0:12:44.804 they're doing a good job now, right, but they all 0:12:44.804 --> 0:12:46.964 the Democrats who were mad at me or Ezra clin 0:12:47.044 --> 0:12:48.844 of people who were like pointing out that, yeah, probably 0:12:48.844 --> 0:12:50.084 not a good idea to have a guy who's going to 0:12:50.124 --> 0:12:51.644 be president till I was eighty six. And oh, by 0:12:51.684 --> 0:12:54.324 the way, he's clearly not fighting Ronald cylinders right now 0:12:54.324 --> 0:12:58.684 after the debate, Right, I mean I've done hundreds of 0:12:58.724 --> 0:13:01.884 public appearances, Right, I've had I've had shit where I 0:13:01.924 --> 0:13:05.044 was super tired or sick or hungover. I've never had 0:13:05.084 --> 0:13:12.044 a performance remotely as bad as Biden's debate, Right, And 0:13:12.644 --> 0:13:14.404 if I did, then I hope someone w'd be like, 0:13:14.404 --> 0:13:16.564 you got to get medical attention, you know what I mean? 0:13:16.924 --> 0:13:18.884 Yeah? No, I mean I think that it's important to 0:13:18.884 --> 0:13:21.604 be talking about this now, both to understand what happened, 0:13:22.164 --> 0:13:25.084 but also to figure out, you know how on a 0:13:25.124 --> 0:13:27.444 broader scale, like how do we prevent something like this 0:13:27.564 --> 0:13:30.804 from happening again? How do we actually learn from this, right, 0:13:30.884 --> 0:13:34.884 so that going forward we don't find ourselves in a 0:13:34.964 --> 0:13:37.284 similar situation. And by way, I mean the country, right, 0:13:37.564 --> 0:13:40.764 I don't mean you know, the Democratic Party the Republican Party, 0:13:40.804 --> 0:13:44.804 because this could happen to either party. And I think 0:13:44.884 --> 0:13:48.164 that people do need to be empowered to say something 0:13:48.244 --> 0:13:51.284 and not shut up, because I think that's psychologically speaking, 0:13:51.324 --> 0:13:54.444 there are multiple forces here. I mean, first, from like 0:13:54.524 --> 0:13:58.564 the Biden camp. Internally, you do have kind of this 0:13:59.084 --> 0:14:05.244 cycle of motivated reasoning, which basically, you know, is confirmation 0:14:05.404 --> 0:14:08.844 bias on steroids, so you know, if you already have 0:14:09.044 --> 0:14:11.844 a point of you, right, you tend to look at 0:14:11.884 --> 0:14:15.164 evidence with that point of view in mind, and so 0:14:15.324 --> 0:14:17.604 everything that confirms your point of view, you're like, yeah, see, 0:14:17.604 --> 0:14:20.644 this is exactly what I'm talking about. Everything that disconfirms it, 0:14:20.684 --> 0:14:22.484 you're like, oh no, well this is bullshit. You know, 0:14:22.564 --> 0:14:25.964 for these reasons, and you don't wait them correctly, right, 0:14:26.004 --> 0:14:30.124 you don't. Actually you think that you're doing an objective analysis, 0:14:30.124 --> 0:14:33.404 but it's a motivated analysis, motivated by your own biases 0:14:33.444 --> 0:14:35.724 and your own agenda. And so I think that you know, 0:14:35.884 --> 0:14:39.524 I've talked before about followers of Trump kind of being 0:14:39.604 --> 0:14:44.404 under this way of a con artist like mentality, right 0:14:44.444 --> 0:14:48.364 where you kind of once you buy into this, you're 0:14:48.444 --> 0:14:50.444 just kind of part of that and you can't see 0:14:50.444 --> 0:14:53.484 things to the contrary. I actually think that that's true 0:14:53.804 --> 0:14:55.804 to some extent of what was happening to the Biden 0:14:55.884 --> 0:14:59.404 camp as well, that you kind of buy into kind 0:14:59.404 --> 0:15:02.404 of the reality that no, Biden, you know this this 0:15:02.484 --> 0:15:05.084 is fine, right, that this is fine. Dog that I 0:15:05.124 --> 0:15:09.164 have behind me during our day things, that this is fine. 0:15:09.564 --> 0:15:12.884 That everything to the contrary we dismiss and everything and 0:15:12.964 --> 0:15:15.604 every moment of clarity where Biden has like a good 0:15:15.604 --> 0:15:18.644 interview right or half an hour where he's sharp, You're like, see, 0:15:18.844 --> 0:15:21.524 he's totally fine, everything is fine. And so you have 0:15:21.604 --> 0:15:23.724 that on the one hand, and on the other hand, 0:15:23.884 --> 0:15:29.524 you have the pressure, right, the pressure from different external 0:15:29.524 --> 0:15:33.044 forces and internal forces to show cohesion, to kind of 0:15:33.044 --> 0:15:37.684 be loyal to the party. And people often don't understand. 0:15:37.924 --> 0:15:40.004 And I think that this is important to understand, both 0:15:40.044 --> 0:15:42.484 in the past and currently what's happening in the Republican Party, 0:15:42.604 --> 0:15:44.884 that sometimes being loyal to the party means speaking out 0:15:45.124 --> 0:15:46.884 right and saying, hey, this is not okay, this is 0:15:46.924 --> 0:15:50.284 actually undermining our party. Right in the long term, what 0:15:50.444 --> 0:15:53.204 is happening with the party is hurting the party. That 0:15:53.204 --> 0:15:55.684 that can be the act of loyalty. But instead people 0:15:55.804 --> 0:15:59.284 just like cowto and shut up and meekly say yes, 0:15:59.324 --> 0:16:02.244 we will follow the party line, and that can actually 0:16:02.244 --> 0:16:03.044 be devastating. 0:16:03.324 --> 0:16:07.564 Yeah. Look, I think they're both bad, but not quite 0:16:07.604 --> 0:16:09.684 the same phenomenon. I mean, I think in some ways 0:16:09.724 --> 0:16:15.804 Democrats plays maybe less narrowly stupid and more cynical in 0:16:15.844 --> 0:16:18.004 some ways. Right, Like, so I think you know, number one, 0:16:18.684 --> 0:16:21.844 I think the people close to Biden did or must 0:16:21.844 --> 0:16:24.084 have had some idea. A lot of these books are 0:16:24.124 --> 0:16:28.044 reported on background, right, which means it's hard to attribute 0:16:28.124 --> 0:16:31.364 kind of what was generally known versus who knew what? Right, 0:16:31.404 --> 0:16:34.524 But like my model is like people knew. I mean 0:16:34.564 --> 0:16:37.244 Biden was obviously being like shielded a lot. I went 0:16:37.284 --> 0:16:40.324 through his entire schedule for four years, and there were 0:16:40.404 --> 0:16:43.724 eight instances in twenty thirteen and another eight in twenty 0:16:43.804 --> 0:16:46.844 twenty four, so sixteen total in the final two years 0:16:47.044 --> 0:16:49.204 where he does not have any public appearances for four 0:16:49.404 --> 0:16:52.444 days or more in our own and some of those Okay, 0:16:52.484 --> 0:16:54.404 I guess the presence in title to a vacation, but 0:16:54.564 --> 0:16:57.084 like you know, I mean his schedule becomes very sporadic 0:16:57.164 --> 0:17:02.204 and erratic. But also I mean Democrats are selecting for 0:17:02.284 --> 0:17:06.124 people who go along with the program, right, I mean 0:17:06.124 --> 0:17:08.204 this is like, you know, this is part of the 0:17:08.244 --> 0:17:11.284 personality type of what I called the village in my book, right, 0:17:11.324 --> 0:17:15.684 which is it's risk averse do gooder types, and so 0:17:16.044 --> 0:17:18.564 round nosing is a big part of the game. And 0:17:19.724 --> 0:17:23.884 Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, who ran Harris's campaign and ran Biden's campaigns, 0:17:23.884 --> 0:17:25.524 to the reporting these books is like, yeah, she is 0:17:25.564 --> 0:17:28.364 somebody where if you have bad news or to sending 0:17:28.404 --> 0:17:31.164 point of view, then don't tell it to Jen right. 0:17:31.204 --> 0:17:36.644 And how she mind worked Kamala Harris into making herself 0:17:36.724 --> 0:17:39.324 Kamala Harris's campaign chief too, I mean that was just 0:17:39.924 --> 0:17:41.684 you know, I'm much more set the Kamala Harrison I 0:17:41.724 --> 0:17:48.044 am to Joe Biden. But that decision was ill advised, 0:17:48.444 --> 0:17:50.084 I would say. And that's also the implicit thing too, 0:17:50.164 --> 0:17:54.524 is like, so the Biden people thought that, Okay, well 0:17:55.924 --> 0:17:58.124 Harris can't win. Well, you're the ones who fucking picked 0:17:58.124 --> 0:18:01.644 her as your vice president, right, I mean the low 0:18:01.884 --> 0:18:06.084 esteem in which the Biden people held Kamala Harris, right, 0:18:06.724 --> 0:18:08.924 you know, first of all, you know, you have a 0:18:08.964 --> 0:18:10.924 vice president and whatever you think of her as a cane, 0:18:11.004 --> 0:18:13.604 And I mean, she definitely is a knowledgeable person who 0:18:13.804 --> 0:18:18.324 attorney general, senator, definitely traditional qualifications right in the largest 0:18:18.324 --> 0:18:20.284 state in the country, and so she probably should have 0:18:20.284 --> 0:18:22.644 been president. I would have felt safer in a crisis 0:18:22.644 --> 0:18:25.044 with Kamala Harris. And then you know, I'll be honest, 0:18:25.044 --> 0:18:28.204 I would feel safer with Donald Trump picking up the 0:18:28.244 --> 0:18:30.404 red phone and Joe Biden, Like it's not even close, 0:18:31.404 --> 0:18:33.964 Like I don't think he hasn't gotten I'm not saying 0:18:33.964 --> 0:18:36.044 I perfect Trump overall. I certainly wouldn't it, right, but 0:18:36.204 --> 0:18:39.484 like I you know, I mean at least he has 0:18:39.524 --> 0:18:42.964 his wits about him such as they are right, but anyway, 0:18:42.964 --> 0:18:46.084 but yeah, the lowest team. And then if you read fight, 0:18:46.204 --> 0:18:48.644 a lot of it is like, well, the Biden people 0:18:48.684 --> 0:18:54.364 don't want Harris exactly, and the dissenters of dicract parties 0:18:54.364 --> 0:18:57.844 like Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi also don't want Harris. 0:18:57.844 --> 0:19:00.084 They want kind of this open primary, but she kind 0:19:00.084 --> 0:19:03.284 of emerges as this compromised option in part because the 0:19:03.284 --> 0:19:05.804 Biden people are like, you don't want me, Well fuck you, 0:19:05.804 --> 0:19:09.644 You're getting her, right. I'm not exaggerating by much. Like 0:19:09.684 --> 0:19:13.004 there's that attitude. So yeah, just this morass of stuff 0:19:13.044 --> 0:19:14.964 that like and you know, and then I you know, 0:19:14.964 --> 0:19:17.404 I actually got some quich backrooms people about. Like I 0:19:17.404 --> 0:19:20.004 wrote an article last week saying, okay, enough with the 0:19:20.124 --> 0:19:23.444 media victory lap here, right, I mean, maybe we should 0:19:23.524 --> 0:19:26.084 have Like there's all this reporting. I understand when you're 0:19:26.124 --> 0:19:28.644 reporting a book that sometimes people tell you things on 0:19:28.684 --> 0:19:30.964 the condition of it's going to come out in a year, right, 0:19:31.004 --> 0:19:32.724 I mean, for on the edge. I had some of that. 0:19:32.764 --> 0:19:34.964 People say, well, i'll talk to you on the record 0:19:35.284 --> 0:19:37.004 because I won't be published for a few years, and 0:19:37.044 --> 0:19:39.244 I trust you to do a fair job, whereas I 0:19:39.244 --> 0:19:41.324 couldn't just go turn around and write like a newsletter 0:19:41.324 --> 0:19:45.684 post about that or something. Right, But still, I mean, 0:19:46.244 --> 0:19:48.764 you know, I love the US was lucky, I think, 0:19:48.804 --> 0:19:52.164 to avoid an acute crisis. 0:19:52.604 --> 0:19:56.124 Yeah, it absolutely was. And just for you know, for 0:19:56.164 --> 0:19:57.924 the record, I have not read either book. I've read 0:19:58.004 --> 0:20:01.844 some excerpts from both of them, but some of the 0:20:02.044 --> 0:20:05.124 some of the information there is pretty damning in the 0:20:05.164 --> 0:20:07.804 sense of not recognizing George Clooney, which by the way, 0:20:07.884 --> 0:20:11.404 is huge, right, Like let's just let's just say that 0:20:11.844 --> 0:20:15.884 George George Clooney's face, Nate, So, I don't know if 0:20:15.924 --> 0:20:18.724 you know this, but he so there are psych studies 0:20:19.244 --> 0:20:24.204 on brain damage kind of different types of neural damage 0:20:24.244 --> 0:20:28.324 and kind of cognitive function loss, and George Clooney is 0:20:28.444 --> 0:20:31.644 one of the faces that's used to kind of look 0:20:31.644 --> 0:20:35.284 at that he is so recognizable and such an iconic 0:20:35.404 --> 0:20:38.724 celebrity that his face is actually one of the like 0:20:38.804 --> 0:20:43.364 classic study materials where you assess cognitive function because sometimes 0:20:43.404 --> 0:20:46.284 people like I might not recognize you even though i've 0:20:46.284 --> 0:20:49.764 known you, but I'll recognize George Clooney, right, And sometimes 0:20:49.844 --> 0:20:52.164 I won't quite recognize, but I'll be like, oh, you know, 0:20:52.804 --> 0:20:55.444 so he is one of those faces that's used so 0:20:55.644 --> 0:20:58.564 to me, like it was an added like oh my god, right, 0:20:58.684 --> 0:21:01.044 not recognizing him when you actually know him and he's 0:21:01.084 --> 0:21:05.244 actually a friend, like that is not something that you dismiss, right, 0:21:05.324 --> 0:21:08.364 that is something that if you're a doctor. I was 0:21:08.404 --> 0:21:10.124 going to say, if you're a but you don't need 0:21:10.164 --> 0:21:12.604 to be a psychiatrist. If you're anyone, you have to 0:21:12.644 --> 0:21:15.844 be like, Okay, you know something is actually wrong and 0:21:15.884 --> 0:21:17.844 you need to assess this and we need to figure 0:21:17.884 --> 0:21:21.444 out what the hell happened. It's much worse than thinking 0:21:21.444 --> 0:21:24.204 you just spoke to Metronde even though he's not been 0:21:24.244 --> 0:21:26.924 the president of France for quite some time. Right, So 0:21:27.404 --> 0:21:30.924 in some in some ways like that's that's a oh 0:21:30.964 --> 0:21:33.644 shit moment, like what are we even doing here? And 0:21:33.684 --> 0:21:35.804 there's so many of those that I just saw in 0:21:35.844 --> 0:21:39.564 the excerts, and obviously excerts are chosen for the juicy bits, 0:21:39.604 --> 0:21:42.764 but it does seem like there was kind of a 0:21:42.764 --> 0:21:47.404 consensus to protect the president, and that's the wrong incentive structure, right, 0:21:47.484 --> 0:21:50.284 The incentive should be to protect the country and to 0:21:50.324 --> 0:21:52.484 make sure that the country is on a good path, 0:21:52.524 --> 0:21:53.684 not to protect a man. 0:21:53.964 --> 0:21:56.644