1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:23,604 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hey everyone, it's Maria reminding you to send in 2 00:00:23,684 --> 00:00:28,444 Speaker 1: your questions about decision making, stats and psychology. Each week 3 00:00:28,484 --> 00:00:32,044 Speaker 1: we answer one for Pushkin Plus members and sometimes they 4 00:00:32,084 --> 00:00:35,204 Speaker 1: make it into the regular episodes as well. Either way, 5 00:00:35,244 --> 00:00:38,044 Speaker 1: it's a great way to support the show. Reach out 6 00:00:38,084 --> 00:00:40,724 Speaker 1: to us on social media or email us at Risky 7 00:00:40,724 --> 00:00:44,564 Speaker 1: Business at pushkin dot fm. We look forward to hearing 8 00:00:44,604 --> 00:00:54,564 Speaker 1: from you. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about 9 00:00:54,564 --> 00:00:57,524 Speaker 1: making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 10 00:00:57,164 --> 00:00:59,564 Speaker 2: And I'm Mate Silver. What's the thing with the show, Maria, 11 00:00:59,604 --> 00:01:03,484 Speaker 2: I think today is people who just won't go away. 12 00:01:03,644 --> 00:01:08,084 Speaker 2: So there have been new books out on President Biden's 13 00:01:08,204 --> 00:01:12,124 Speaker 2: condition during his twilight in office. Biden was also diagnosed 14 00:01:12,164 --> 00:01:14,684 Speaker 2: with cancer. This week, in art condolences to him and 15 00:01:14,724 --> 00:01:18,044 Speaker 2: his family, we'll talk about We'll talk about will flog 16 00:01:18,084 --> 00:01:20,124 Speaker 2: the Biden horse one more time? Maria. 17 00:01:20,284 --> 00:01:25,524 Speaker 1: We'll be talking about Biden's decision or a lack thereof, 18 00:01:25,604 --> 00:01:28,244 Speaker 1: to step down in a timely fashion, what that meant, 19 00:01:28,324 --> 00:01:31,684 Speaker 1: and some psychology behind it. Yes, And then in other 20 00:01:31,764 --> 00:01:34,164 Speaker 1: people who we just can't stop talking about, We'll be 21 00:01:34,204 --> 00:01:38,404 Speaker 1: talking about Elizabeth Holmes, Theahos and Elizabeth Holmes's partner Billy 22 00:01:38,444 --> 00:01:43,564 Speaker 1: Evans and his new startup, which, surprise surprise, promises an 23 00:01:43,604 --> 00:01:46,444 Speaker 1: innovative way of testing blood. 24 00:01:46,724 --> 00:01:49,084 Speaker 2: The Alstamux cherl manager Nico Harrison. It's not in the 25 00:01:49,084 --> 00:01:51,324 Speaker 2: same league as Joe Biden or Elizabeth Holmes. He just 26 00:01:51,364 --> 00:01:54,364 Speaker 2: made an extremely stupid trade early this year, but he 27 00:01:54,444 --> 00:01:57,244 Speaker 2: was rewarded for it with the number one overall pick 28 00:01:57,324 --> 00:01:59,884 Speaker 2: in the NBA draft, likely to be Cooper Flagg. We'll 29 00:01:59,924 --> 00:02:03,444 Speaker 2: talk about is the NBA draft lottery rigged? Of course 30 00:02:03,444 --> 00:02:04,244 Speaker 2: it isn't. Hahaha. 31 00:02:06,124 --> 00:02:15,724 Speaker 1: Let's get into it night, Nate. Way back when you 32 00:02:15,764 --> 00:02:18,724 Speaker 1: were one of the first prominent voices to say that 33 00:02:18,764 --> 00:02:21,444 Speaker 1: Biden should not be running for reelection and that he 34 00:02:21,524 --> 00:02:23,964 Speaker 1: should be stepping down, and you got a lot of 35 00:02:24,004 --> 00:02:27,164 Speaker 1: hate for that. When you were saying it, almost no 36 00:02:27,204 --> 00:02:29,924 Speaker 1: one else was, and you know it was. It was 37 00:02:29,964 --> 00:02:33,604 Speaker 1: a big deal. And now we've got several books coming 38 00:02:33,644 --> 00:02:37,604 Speaker 1: out that basically say, oops, more people should have been 39 00:02:37,604 --> 00:02:40,284 Speaker 1: saying it. They should have been saying it earlier, and 40 00:02:40,884 --> 00:02:43,884 Speaker 1: what a clusterfuck. Let's let's talk a little bit about that. 41 00:02:44,404 --> 00:02:46,884 Speaker 2: Yeah, So there are a few things that make this relevant. 42 00:02:47,004 --> 00:02:50,164 Speaker 2: Right when we have talked on this program before about 43 00:02:50,164 --> 00:02:54,884 Speaker 2: the book Fight by Jonathan Allen and Amy Parnes. There's 44 00:02:54,924 --> 00:03:00,244 Speaker 2: another book called Original Sin, which takes a slightly longer exposure. 45 00:03:00,644 --> 00:03:04,164 Speaker 2: Fights mostly about the period where Biden has a terrible 46 00:03:04,164 --> 00:03:07,164 Speaker 2: debate and then is kind of forced drap out. This 47 00:03:07,244 --> 00:03:09,244 Speaker 2: takes a longer lens. I'm not running yet. I've read 48 00:03:09,444 --> 00:03:13,164 Speaker 2: the extensive excerpts and previews of it. That's one thing. Right. 49 00:03:14,284 --> 00:03:18,364 Speaker 2: Number Two, Joe Biden over the weekend was diagnosed with 50 00:03:19,524 --> 00:03:26,524 Speaker 2: I believe stage for prostate cancer. Correct, yes, correct, That 51 00:03:26,604 --> 00:03:30,564 Speaker 2: has spread to his bones. It's a pretty advanced stage. 52 00:03:31,284 --> 00:03:36,364 Speaker 2: So our condolences to Biden's family. But this is not 53 00:03:36,804 --> 00:03:41,644 Speaker 2: entirely non germane to the topic at hand. Right. Third, 54 00:03:41,964 --> 00:03:45,004 Speaker 2: the audio transcript of one of the earlier warning signs 55 00:03:45,004 --> 00:03:50,084 Speaker 2: for Biden was he was under investigation by a special 56 00:03:50,084 --> 00:03:55,124 Speaker 2: counsel named Robert her last year for document actually two 57 00:03:55,164 --> 00:03:57,964 Speaker 2: years ago, I guess right. For document retention practice is 58 00:03:58,044 --> 00:04:00,204 Speaker 2: the thing that no president seems to be very careful 59 00:04:00,204 --> 00:04:04,324 Speaker 2: about these days. Her issued her reports. I'm not going 60 00:04:04,404 --> 00:04:06,844 Speaker 2: to charge him because he's quote an elderly man with 61 00:04:06,924 --> 00:04:10,004 Speaker 2: a poor memory, and what's the right he's gonna go 62 00:04:10,044 --> 00:04:13,924 Speaker 2: over to the witness stand and forget half the shit anyway. Right, So, 63 00:04:14,084 --> 00:04:16,084 Speaker 2: of course all of the Biden people and all the 64 00:04:17,284 --> 00:04:22,364 Speaker 2: apparently nonpartisan media flipped out about this when it happened. However, 65 00:04:22,524 --> 00:04:27,524 Speaker 2: the Biden White House refused to release the audio or 66 00:04:27,564 --> 00:04:30,964 Speaker 2: the video of these interviews, right, making up some bullshit 67 00:04:31,044 --> 00:04:32,964 Speaker 2: excuse that only stupid people bought. But there are lot 68 00:04:33,004 --> 00:04:34,884 Speaker 2: of stupid people in election years, right. And so now 69 00:04:34,884 --> 00:04:38,324 Speaker 2: the audio's out, and like Biden's stuttering and stammering, it's 70 00:04:38,364 --> 00:04:41,644 Speaker 2: not any different than you would expecting that they were 71 00:04:41,684 --> 00:04:45,124 Speaker 2: afraid of it being being released. But still that shines 72 00:04:45,164 --> 00:04:47,004 Speaker 2: more of a lens on the story. But Marie, can 73 00:04:47,084 --> 00:04:49,764 Speaker 2: I give you the kind of hard questions so I 74 00:04:49,804 --> 00:04:53,204 Speaker 2: don't have to answer it? First? How did you feel 75 00:04:53,204 --> 00:04:56,204 Speaker 2: when you heard about the cancer news? 76 00:04:57,284 --> 00:05:00,724 Speaker 1: I felt obviously absolutely uh horrible for Biden. I mean, 77 00:05:00,804 --> 00:05:04,044 Speaker 1: I don't wish that on anyone. I also, you know, 78 00:05:04,284 --> 00:05:07,604 Speaker 1: I think that you know, we're in a really shitty 79 00:05:07,644 --> 00:05:12,124 Speaker 1: situation right now and the country is really really hurting, 80 00:05:12,364 --> 00:05:15,004 Speaker 1: and we've talked on this pod a lot. It doesn't 81 00:05:15,044 --> 00:05:18,604 Speaker 1: really matter kind of what someone's political leanings are to 82 00:05:18,644 --> 00:05:21,284 Speaker 1: be able to point to some things like you know, 83 00:05:21,324 --> 00:05:25,884 Speaker 1: what's happened to usaid, to scientific funding, to research, to innovation, 84 00:05:26,324 --> 00:05:28,604 Speaker 1: you know, tariffs, as we've talked about many, many times, 85 00:05:28,764 --> 00:05:31,924 Speaker 1: to all of these facets of American life, First Amendment protections, 86 00:05:32,284 --> 00:05:36,204 Speaker 1: all of these things. And you know, that's I don't 87 00:05:36,204 --> 00:05:38,804 Speaker 1: want to say squarely on Biden's shoulders, but a lot 88 00:05:38,804 --> 00:05:42,964 Speaker 1: of that is on Biden's shoulders for you know, refusing 89 00:05:43,004 --> 00:05:44,964 Speaker 1: to do what he said he would do. Right, if 90 00:05:45,004 --> 00:05:48,524 Speaker 1: you remember Nate, you probably actually remember this quote more 91 00:05:48,564 --> 00:05:51,524 Speaker 1: accurately than I do. But what was his what was 92 00:05:52,444 --> 00:05:54,684 Speaker 1: his way of phrasing it when he was elected the 93 00:05:54,684 --> 00:05:56,084 Speaker 1: first time? Right? I think he said that he was 94 00:05:56,124 --> 00:05:58,724 Speaker 1: going to be a bridge, right, something like that, that 95 00:05:58,764 --> 00:06:01,084 Speaker 1: he was someone who was going to be a bridge 96 00:06:01,124 --> 00:06:04,724 Speaker 1: to kind of protect against Trump and bring America forward. 97 00:06:05,124 --> 00:06:07,724 Speaker 1: And then you know, a bridge ends, right, A bridge 98 00:06:07,764 --> 00:06:10,724 Speaker 1: goes from bank to bank, and then you get off 99 00:06:10,764 --> 00:06:13,724 Speaker 1: and you're on the other side. And at some point 100 00:06:13,764 --> 00:06:16,924 Speaker 1: he decided that no, he wasn't really going to be 101 00:06:16,964 --> 00:06:18,964 Speaker 1: a bridge. He was also he was also going to 102 00:06:18,964 --> 00:06:20,564 Speaker 1: be the road on the other side, and he was 103 00:06:20,604 --> 00:06:24,844 Speaker 1: the correct person to continue to continue on forward. And 104 00:06:25,884 --> 00:06:28,244 Speaker 1: you know, here here's where we are. So I feel, 105 00:06:28,444 --> 00:06:32,884 Speaker 1: you know, the two things are not related, somewhat related. 106 00:06:32,884 --> 00:06:34,764 Speaker 1: I don't even know. I feel awful, right, Like, no 107 00:06:34,804 --> 00:06:37,444 Speaker 1: one deserves an aggressive form of cancer. I wish I 108 00:06:37,484 --> 00:06:41,244 Speaker 1: wish him quick, speedy recovery. I hope that they can 109 00:06:41,284 --> 00:06:43,804 Speaker 1: treat it, you know, I hope that he has a 110 00:06:43,844 --> 00:06:47,644 Speaker 1: comfortable old age. But I'm not in a very pro 111 00:06:47,724 --> 00:06:49,924 Speaker 1: biden frame of mind in general. 112 00:06:50,404 --> 00:06:54,884 Speaker 2: Yeah, I have trouble mustering up that much sympathy under 113 00:06:54,924 --> 00:07:01,564 Speaker 2: the circumstances, right, And the reason why is because I 114 00:07:01,644 --> 00:07:04,804 Speaker 2: think probabilistically right, and like that's part of what colors 115 00:07:04,804 --> 00:07:06,764 Speaker 2: the whole analysis to begin with, where like someone hits 116 00:07:06,764 --> 00:07:08,964 Speaker 2: this age and that's a problem. But also if you 117 00:07:09,204 --> 00:07:14,484 Speaker 2: are are now being diagnosed with this very aggressive cancer, right, 118 00:07:16,324 --> 00:07:19,524 Speaker 2: wouldn't there have been signs of it before? I mean, 119 00:07:20,004 --> 00:07:24,244 Speaker 2: you know, I asked chet GPT the three model. People 120 00:07:24,284 --> 00:07:27,044 Speaker 2: have different opinions on how appropriate is for medical diagnosis. 121 00:07:27,044 --> 00:07:29,444 Speaker 2: But it's trying to summarize a bunch of research on 122 00:07:29,484 --> 00:07:31,524 Speaker 2: the Internet and in journals and things like that, and 123 00:07:31,564 --> 00:07:34,924 Speaker 2: it's said, yeah, there's a high probability that at the 124 00:07:34,964 --> 00:07:40,204 Speaker 2: cancer is this advanced that it would have been detectable 125 00:07:40,444 --> 00:07:42,164 Speaker 2: a year or so earlier. It's like an eighty or 126 00:07:42,244 --> 00:07:46,124 Speaker 2: ninety percent chance. Right. So there's reporting I'm going to 127 00:07:46,164 --> 00:07:50,884 Speaker 2: have not read original sin. There's reporting in fight about 128 00:07:50,884 --> 00:07:54,604 Speaker 2: how you know, Biden's kind of avoiding the doctor quite 129 00:07:54,604 --> 00:07:56,244 Speaker 2: a bit once his health becomes an issue. We just 130 00:07:56,324 --> 00:07:58,764 Speaker 2: kind of just want to give people rope for this thing. 131 00:07:59,044 --> 00:08:02,244 Speaker 2: And it's like, okay, so that's not great, right. You 132 00:08:02,244 --> 00:08:04,244 Speaker 2: would think that after the debate you would say, Okay, 133 00:08:04,244 --> 00:08:06,404 Speaker 2: I got everything checked out and a couple of problems, 134 00:08:06,404 --> 00:08:08,084 Speaker 2: but here's a complete report. And instead he's kind of 135 00:08:08,124 --> 00:08:11,124 Speaker 2: like pulling it Trump where he has these personal doctors 136 00:08:11,164 --> 00:08:14,404 Speaker 2: that frankly aren't very fucking credible, right, or that the 137 00:08:14,484 --> 00:08:17,364 Speaker 2: diagnosis had been made before and they you want to 138 00:08:17,364 --> 00:08:19,244 Speaker 2: disclose it. I don't. 139 00:08:19,324 --> 00:08:22,404 Speaker 1: Well, either of those things is pretty damning, because the 140 00:08:22,484 --> 00:08:25,284 Speaker 1: first is, you know, we've I think we've all been 141 00:08:25,324 --> 00:08:29,204 Speaker 1: there or you know that moment where like you think 142 00:08:29,244 --> 00:08:31,444 Speaker 1: something's wrong and you're kind of in denial and you 143 00:08:31,444 --> 00:08:34,284 Speaker 1: don't want to go to the doctor because because you 144 00:08:34,284 --> 00:08:36,524 Speaker 1: don't want to confirm it. So you're like, I'm just 145 00:08:36,564 --> 00:08:38,524 Speaker 1: going to put off this appointment, right, Like it's not 146 00:08:38,564 --> 00:08:42,124 Speaker 1: that important because you you kind of you don't want 147 00:08:42,124 --> 00:08:45,324 Speaker 1: to know. It's a very very human response. And but 148 00:08:45,404 --> 00:08:47,964 Speaker 1: if you're kind of a president, then you have a 149 00:08:48,004 --> 00:08:52,364 Speaker 1: responsibility to make sure that, Okay, I'm functioning well, I'm 150 00:08:52,404 --> 00:08:56,644 Speaker 1: firing on all cylinders. There's nothing actually wrong because I have, 151 00:08:56,724 --> 00:08:59,724 Speaker 1: you know, the weight of the country on my shoulders. 152 00:08:59,844 --> 00:09:03,164 Speaker 1: So if he's avoiding the doctor, that's damning. However, if 153 00:09:03,204 --> 00:09:05,964 Speaker 1: he goes and he knows that he has this cancer 154 00:09:05,964 --> 00:09:09,364 Speaker 1: diagnosis and he hides it, that's also damning, right because 155 00:09:09,484 --> 00:09:12,364 Speaker 1: if you have stage four cancer, get the fuck out 156 00:09:12,404 --> 00:09:15,084 Speaker 1: of the race, right, Like that is something that is 157 00:09:15,484 --> 00:09:17,924 Speaker 1: you know, it's awful, and like you should you should 158 00:09:18,004 --> 00:09:21,804 Speaker 1: in no way be running for the presidency. I mean 159 00:09:22,044 --> 00:09:24,764 Speaker 1: you should be at home focusing on your health, recovering. 160 00:09:25,364 --> 00:09:28,484 Speaker 1: If he had received that diagnosis during his presidency, frankly, 161 00:09:28,524 --> 00:09:31,004 Speaker 1: he should have resigned right then and there, passed over 162 00:09:31,044 --> 00:09:34,804 Speaker 1: the presidency to Kamala Harris and said, you know, I'm 163 00:09:34,844 --> 00:09:37,484 Speaker 1: dealing with stage four cancer. I'm you know, I'm really sorry. 164 00:09:37,524 --> 00:09:40,084 Speaker 1: I'm doing what's best for the country. So either way, 165 00:09:40,204 --> 00:09:43,524 Speaker 1: whether he was avoiding the doctors or whether he knew 166 00:09:44,084 --> 00:09:47,644 Speaker 1: and I have no idea, right, Obviously, neither one is 167 00:09:47,644 --> 00:09:52,764 Speaker 1: a very good look for him as the president. And 168 00:09:52,924 --> 00:09:55,844 Speaker 1: if we also just zoom out, like Nate, imagine that 169 00:09:55,884 --> 00:09:58,724 Speaker 1: he had gotten reelected, right, and right now we're in 170 00:09:59,284 --> 00:10:02,324 Speaker 1: We're in term two of the Biden presidency, and this 171 00:10:02,404 --> 00:10:05,164 Speaker 1: news comes out this weekend, you know, four months in, 172 00:10:05,524 --> 00:10:07,524 Speaker 1: and then everyone who says, you know, Biden is who 173 00:10:07,724 --> 00:10:10,164 Speaker 1: was too old? Everyone's like, what are we even doing? 174 00:10:10,244 --> 00:10:11,204 Speaker 1: Like how did we get here? 175 00:10:11,284 --> 00:10:11,444 Speaker 2: Right? 176 00:10:11,884 --> 00:10:15,844 Speaker 1: So, so the counterfactual is also kind of scary to 177 00:10:15,844 --> 00:10:16,244 Speaker 1: think about. 178 00:10:16,964 --> 00:10:18,564 Speaker 2: No, I mean, and you imagine if this had news 179 00:10:18,564 --> 00:10:21,964 Speaker 2: had come out, then I think he would resign the presidency. 180 00:10:22,004 --> 00:10:24,404 Speaker 1: I don't know, we would hope so, but at this 181 00:10:24,484 --> 00:10:27,684 Speaker 1: point we don't know, right, given how he behaved during 182 00:10:27,884 --> 00:10:28,284 Speaker 1: during a. 183 00:10:28,644 --> 00:10:32,884 Speaker 2: I mean, it's so impossible to imagine him winning, Like 184 00:10:33,004 --> 00:10:35,244 Speaker 2: if somehow, I don't know, I mean, if somehow he 185 00:10:35,284 --> 00:10:37,484 Speaker 2: had won, I mean, it would be I think, a 186 00:10:37,484 --> 00:10:41,284 Speaker 2: disastrous presidency, you know what I mean, and in different ways, 187 00:10:42,684 --> 00:10:44,844 Speaker 2: in different but like I again, I said on this 188 00:10:44,884 --> 00:10:49,004 Speaker 2: program that you know, I was not going to vote 189 00:10:49,004 --> 00:10:51,764 Speaker 2: for Joe Biden. My vote doesn't really matter, right, And 190 00:10:51,804 --> 00:10:55,884 Speaker 2: I feel extremely validated in that, right, I with perfect hindsight. 191 00:10:55,924 --> 00:10:57,484 Speaker 2: I mean, I wouldn't vote for Trump, but like I'm 192 00:10:57,524 --> 00:10:59,804 Speaker 2: even further away from ever thinking it was appropriate to 193 00:10:59,844 --> 00:11:01,764 Speaker 2: cast a vote for somebody who I mean again, in 194 00:11:02,364 --> 00:11:05,284 Speaker 2: reporting these books suggests that people around him were worried 195 00:11:05,364 --> 00:11:08,964 Speaker 2: about his ability to perform in a crisis, Right, you know, 196 00:11:09,244 --> 00:11:11,244 Speaker 2: if you have a red phone moment and then his 197 00:11:11,324 --> 00:11:15,844 Speaker 2: people like, well, is there aren't really any nothing disastrous happened. Well, 198 00:11:15,884 --> 00:11:16,684 Speaker 2: I don't know, right. 199 00:11:16,564 --> 00:11:18,404 Speaker 1: We got lucky, We got lucky. 200 00:11:18,644 --> 00:11:21,244 Speaker 2: That is also, I mean, the world is less peaceful 201 00:11:21,284 --> 00:11:24,684 Speaker 2: than when Ryden took over, right, I mean, Israel and 202 00:11:24,764 --> 00:11:27,484 Speaker 2: the Middle East are at war, and Ukraine, I mean 203 00:11:27,484 --> 00:11:32,204 Speaker 2: it's the most serious incursion into European territory in many years. Right, 204 00:11:32,364 --> 00:11:36,644 Speaker 2: our relationship with China saturating. Indian Pakistan are not real 205 00:11:36,724 --> 00:11:39,284 Speaker 2: happy with each other right now, you know, So I 206 00:11:39,284 --> 00:11:41,084 Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, you know, when he was like 207 00:11:41,204 --> 00:11:43,404 Speaker 2: taking these special council meetings, was like, right at the 208 00:11:43,444 --> 00:11:46,884 Speaker 2: same time that October seventh happens, was like off the 209 00:11:46,884 --> 00:11:49,204 Speaker 2: phone with BBE and into these meetings. It's like, okay, Well, 210 00:11:49,204 --> 00:11:51,124 Speaker 2: if you're kind of like not able to like coherently 211 00:11:51,124 --> 00:11:53,084 Speaker 2: remember names, and dates, and like what if there is 212 00:11:53,124 --> 00:11:55,884 Speaker 2: a cute point of strategy that the United States wants 213 00:11:55,924 --> 00:11:58,404 Speaker 2: to articulate or point of leverage. Right, it's just a 214 00:11:58,484 --> 00:12:05,524 Speaker 2: really huge scandal. It's a huge scandal. And you know, 215 00:12:05,964 --> 00:12:11,364 Speaker 2: in some ways, I guess Democrats are lucky, e they're 216 00:12:11,364 --> 00:12:13,324 Speaker 2: not suffering from it more, you know, I mean, I 217 00:12:13,364 --> 00:12:14,604 Speaker 2: don't know with a long term effect. I mean, I 218 00:12:14,644 --> 00:12:17,964 Speaker 2: think Biden at some point we'll just kind of go away, right, 219 00:12:18,044 --> 00:12:22,604 Speaker 2: But like, but like it's it's news worth talking about 220 00:12:23,044 --> 00:12:26,284 Speaker 2: even in May of the year after the election, because 221 00:12:27,124 --> 00:12:30,004 Speaker 2: you know, it's one of the biggest dafts. I mean, 222 00:12:30,044 --> 00:12:31,564 Speaker 2: that's not the way to put it. One of the 223 00:12:31,564 --> 00:12:36,204 Speaker 2: biggest knowable errors, stubborn errors of judgment, repeated errors of 224 00:12:36,244 --> 00:12:39,844 Speaker 2: judgment by Biden and the people around him, and by 225 00:12:39,884 --> 00:12:42,364 Speaker 2: the media frankly who kind of had the I mean, 226 00:12:42,404 --> 00:12:44,804 Speaker 2: they're doing a good job now, right, but they all 227 00:12:44,804 --> 00:12:46,964 Speaker 2: the Democrats who were mad at me or Ezra clin 228 00:12:47,044 --> 00:12:48,844 Speaker 2: of people who were like pointing out that, yeah, probably 229 00:12:48,844 --> 00:12:50,084 Speaker 2: not a good idea to have a guy who's going to 230 00:12:50,124 --> 00:12:51,644 Speaker 2: be president till I was eighty six. And oh, by 231 00:12:51,684 --> 00:12:54,324 Speaker 2: the way, he's clearly not fighting Ronald cylinders right now 232 00:12:54,324 --> 00:12:58,684 Speaker 2: after the debate, Right, I mean I've done hundreds of 233 00:12:58,724 --> 00:13:01,884 Speaker 2: public appearances, Right, I've had I've had shit where I 234 00:13:01,924 --> 00:13:05,044 Speaker 2: was super tired or sick or hungover. I've never had 235 00:13:05,084 --> 00:13:12,044 Speaker 2: a performance remotely as bad as Biden's debate, Right, And 236 00:13:12,644 --> 00:13:14,404 Speaker 2: if I did, then I hope someone w'd be like, 237 00:13:14,404 --> 00:13:16,564 Speaker 2: you got to get medical attention, you know what I mean? 238 00:13:16,924 --> 00:13:18,884 Speaker 1: Yeah? No, I mean I think that it's important to 239 00:13:18,884 --> 00:13:21,604 Speaker 1: be talking about this now, both to understand what happened, 240 00:13:22,164 --> 00:13:25,084 Speaker 1: but also to figure out, you know how on a 241 00:13:25,124 --> 00:13:27,444 Speaker 1: broader scale, like how do we prevent something like this 242 00:13:27,564 --> 00:13:30,804 Speaker 1: from happening again? How do we actually learn from this, right, 243 00:13:30,884 --> 00:13:34,884 Speaker 1: so that going forward we don't find ourselves in a 244 00:13:34,964 --> 00:13:37,284 Speaker 1: similar situation. And by way, I mean the country, right, 245 00:13:37,564 --> 00:13:40,764 Speaker 1: I don't mean you know, the Democratic Party the Republican Party, 246 00:13:40,804 --> 00:13:44,804 Speaker 1: because this could happen to either party. And I think 247 00:13:44,884 --> 00:13:48,164 Speaker 1: that people do need to be empowered to say something 248 00:13:48,244 --> 00:13:51,284 Speaker 1: and not shut up, because I think that's psychologically speaking, 249 00:13:51,324 --> 00:13:54,444 Speaker 1: there are multiple forces here. I mean, first, from like 250 00:13:54,524 --> 00:13:58,564 Speaker 1: the Biden camp. Internally, you do have kind of this 251 00:13:59,084 --> 00:14:05,244 Speaker 1: cycle of motivated reasoning, which basically, you know, is confirmation 252 00:14:05,404 --> 00:14:08,844 Speaker 1: bias on steroids, so you know, if you already have 253 00:14:09,044 --> 00:14:11,844 Speaker 1: a point of you, right, you tend to look at 254 00:14:11,884 --> 00:14:15,164 Speaker 1: evidence with that point of view in mind, and so 255 00:14:15,324 --> 00:14:17,604 Speaker 1: everything that confirms your point of view, you're like, yeah, see, 256 00:14:17,604 --> 00:14:20,644 Speaker 1: this is exactly what I'm talking about. Everything that disconfirms it, 257 00:14:20,684 --> 00:14:22,484 Speaker 1: you're like, oh no, well this is bullshit. You know, 258 00:14:22,564 --> 00:14:25,964 Speaker 1: for these reasons, and you don't wait them correctly, right, 259 00:14:26,004 --> 00:14:30,124 Speaker 1: you don't. Actually you think that you're doing an objective analysis, 260 00:14:30,124 --> 00:14:33,404 Speaker 1: but it's a motivated analysis, motivated by your own biases 261 00:14:33,444 --> 00:14:35,724 Speaker 1: and your own agenda. And so I think that you know, 262 00:14:35,884 --> 00:14:39,524 Speaker 1: I've talked before about followers of Trump kind of being 263 00:14:39,604 --> 00:14:44,404 Speaker 1: under this way of a con artist like mentality, right 264 00:14:44,444 --> 00:14:48,364 Speaker 1: where you kind of once you buy into this, you're 265 00:14:48,444 --> 00:14:50,444 Speaker 1: just kind of part of that and you can't see 266 00:14:50,444 --> 00:14:53,484 Speaker 1: things to the contrary. I actually think that that's true 267 00:14:53,804 --> 00:14:55,804 Speaker 1: to some extent of what was happening to the Biden 268 00:14:55,884 --> 00:14:59,404 Speaker 1: camp as well, that you kind of buy into kind 269 00:14:59,404 --> 00:15:02,404 Speaker 1: of the reality that no, Biden, you know this this 270 00:15:02,484 --> 00:15:05,084 Speaker 1: is fine, right, that this is fine. Dog that I 271 00:15:05,124 --> 00:15:09,164 Speaker 1: have behind me during our day things, that this is fine. 272 00:15:09,564 --> 00:15:12,884 Speaker 1: That everything to the contrary we dismiss and everything and 273 00:15:12,964 --> 00:15:15,604 Speaker 1: every moment of clarity where Biden has like a good 274 00:15:15,604 --> 00:15:18,644 Speaker 1: interview right or half an hour where he's sharp, You're like, see, 275 00:15:18,844 --> 00:15:21,524 Speaker 1: he's totally fine, everything is fine. And so you have 276 00:15:21,604 --> 00:15:23,724 Speaker 1: that on the one hand, and on the other hand, 277 00:15:23,884 --> 00:15:29,524 Speaker 1: you have the pressure, right, the pressure from different external 278 00:15:29,524 --> 00:15:33,044 Speaker 1: forces and internal forces to show cohesion, to kind of 279 00:15:33,044 --> 00:15:37,684 Speaker 1: be loyal to the party. And people often don't understand. 280 00:15:37,924 --> 00:15:40,004 Speaker 1: And I think that this is important to understand, both 281 00:15:40,044 --> 00:15:42,484 Speaker 1: in the past and currently what's happening in the Republican Party, 282 00:15:42,604 --> 00:15:44,884 Speaker 1: that sometimes being loyal to the party means speaking out 283 00:15:45,124 --> 00:15:46,884 Speaker 1: right and saying, hey, this is not okay, this is 284 00:15:46,924 --> 00:15:50,284 Speaker 1: actually undermining our party. Right in the long term, what 285 00:15:50,444 --> 00:15:53,204 Speaker 1: is happening with the party is hurting the party. That 286 00:15:53,204 --> 00:15:55,684 Speaker 1: that can be the act of loyalty. But instead people 287 00:15:55,804 --> 00:15:59,284 Speaker 1: just like cowto and shut up and meekly say yes, 288 00:15:59,324 --> 00:16:02,244 Speaker 1: we will follow the party line, and that can actually 289 00:16:02,244 --> 00:16:03,044 Speaker 1: be devastating. 290 00:16:03,324 --> 00:16:07,564 Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I think they're both bad, but not quite 291 00:16:07,604 --> 00:16:09,684 Speaker 2: the same phenomenon. I mean, I think in some ways 292 00:16:09,724 --> 00:16:15,804 Speaker 2: Democrats plays maybe less narrowly stupid and more cynical in 293 00:16:15,844 --> 00:16:18,004 Speaker 2: some ways. Right, Like, so I think you know, number one, 294 00:16:18,684 --> 00:16:21,844 Speaker 2: I think the people close to Biden did or must 295 00:16:21,844 --> 00:16:24,084 Speaker 2: have had some idea. A lot of these books are 296 00:16:24,124 --> 00:16:28,044 Speaker 2: reported on background, right, which means it's hard to attribute 297 00:16:28,124 --> 00:16:31,364 Speaker 2: kind of what was generally known versus who knew what? Right, 298 00:16:31,404 --> 00:16:34,524 Speaker 2: But like my model is like people knew. I mean 299 00:16:34,564 --> 00:16:37,244 Speaker 2: Biden was obviously being like shielded a lot. I went 300 00:16:37,284 --> 00:16:40,324 Speaker 2: through his entire schedule for four years, and there were 301 00:16:40,404 --> 00:16:43,724 Speaker 2: eight instances in twenty thirteen and another eight in twenty 302 00:16:43,804 --> 00:16:46,844 Speaker 2: twenty four, so sixteen total in the final two years 303 00:16:47,044 --> 00:16:49,204 Speaker 2: where he does not have any public appearances for four 304 00:16:49,404 --> 00:16:52,444 Speaker 2: days or more in our own and some of those Okay, 305 00:16:52,484 --> 00:16:54,404 Speaker 2: I guess the presence in title to a vacation, but 306 00:16:54,564 --> 00:16:57,084 Speaker 2: like you know, I mean his schedule becomes very sporadic 307 00:16:57,164 --> 00:17:02,204 Speaker 2: and erratic. But also I mean Democrats are selecting for 308 00:17:02,284 --> 00:17:06,124 Speaker 2: people who go along with the program, right, I mean 309 00:17:06,124 --> 00:17:08,204 Speaker 2: this is like, you know, this is part of the 310 00:17:08,244 --> 00:17:11,284 Speaker 2: personality type of what I called the village in my book, right, 311 00:17:11,324 --> 00:17:15,684 Speaker 2: which is it's risk averse do gooder types, and so 312 00:17:16,044 --> 00:17:18,564 Speaker 2: round nosing is a big part of the game. And 313 00:17:19,724 --> 00:17:23,884 Speaker 2: Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, who ran Harris's campaign and ran Biden's campaigns, 314 00:17:23,884 --> 00:17:25,524 Speaker 2: to the reporting these books is like, yeah, she is 315 00:17:25,564 --> 00:17:28,364 Speaker 2: somebody where if you have bad news or to sending 316 00:17:28,404 --> 00:17:31,164 Speaker 2: point of view, then don't tell it to Jen right. 317 00:17:31,204 --> 00:17:36,644 Speaker 2: And how she mind worked Kamala Harris into making herself 318 00:17:36,724 --> 00:17:39,324 Speaker 2: Kamala Harris's campaign chief too, I mean that was just 319 00:17:39,924 --> 00:17:41,684 Speaker 2: you know, I'm much more set the Kamala Harrison I 320 00:17:41,724 --> 00:17:48,044 Speaker 2: am to Joe Biden. But that decision was ill advised, 321 00:17:48,444 --> 00:17:50,084 Speaker 2: I would say. And that's also the implicit thing too, 322 00:17:50,164 --> 00:17:54,524 Speaker 2: is like, so the Biden people thought that, Okay, well 323 00:17:55,924 --> 00:17:58,124 Speaker 2: Harris can't win. Well, you're the ones who fucking picked 324 00:17:58,124 --> 00:18:01,644 Speaker 2: her as your vice president, right, I mean the low 325 00:18:01,884 --> 00:18:06,084 Speaker 2: esteem in which the Biden people held Kamala Harris, right, 326 00:18:06,724 --> 00:18:08,924 Speaker 2: you know, first of all, you know, you have a 327 00:18:08,964 --> 00:18:10,924 Speaker 2: vice president and whatever you think of her as a cane, 328 00:18:11,004 --> 00:18:13,604 Speaker 2: And I mean, she definitely is a knowledgeable person who 329 00:18:13,804 --> 00:18:18,324 Speaker 2: attorney general, senator, definitely traditional qualifications right in the largest 330 00:18:18,324 --> 00:18:20,284 Speaker 2: state in the country, and so she probably should have 331 00:18:20,284 --> 00:18:22,644 Speaker 2: been president. I would have felt safer in a crisis 332 00:18:22,644 --> 00:18:25,044 Speaker 2: with Kamala Harris. And then you know, I'll be honest, 333 00:18:25,044 --> 00:18:28,204 Speaker 2: I would feel safer with Donald Trump picking up the 334 00:18:28,244 --> 00:18:30,404 Speaker 2: red phone and Joe Biden, Like it's not even close, 335 00:18:31,404 --> 00:18:33,964 Speaker 2: Like I don't think he hasn't gotten I'm not saying 336 00:18:33,964 --> 00:18:36,044 Speaker 2: I perfect Trump overall. I certainly wouldn't it, right, but 337 00:18:36,204 --> 00:18:39,484 Speaker 2: like I you know, I mean at least he has 338 00:18:39,524 --> 00:18:42,964 Speaker 2: his wits about him such as they are right, but anyway, 339 00:18:42,964 --> 00:18:46,084 Speaker 2: but yeah, the lowest team. And then if you read fight, 340 00:18:46,204 --> 00:18:48,644 Speaker 2: a lot of it is like, well, the Biden people 341 00:18:48,684 --> 00:18:54,364 Speaker 2: don't want Harris exactly, and the dissenters of dicract parties 342 00:18:54,364 --> 00:18:57,844 Speaker 2: like Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi also don't want Harris. 343 00:18:57,844 --> 00:19:00,084 Speaker 2: They want kind of this open primary, but she kind 344 00:19:00,084 --> 00:19:03,284 Speaker 2: of emerges as this compromised option in part because the 345 00:19:03,284 --> 00:19:05,804 Speaker 2: Biden people are like, you don't want me, Well fuck you, 346 00:19:05,804 --> 00:19:09,644 Speaker 2: You're getting her, right. I'm not exaggerating by much. Like 347 00:19:09,684 --> 00:19:13,004 Speaker 2: there's that attitude. So yeah, just this morass of stuff 348 00:19:13,044 --> 00:19:14,964 Speaker 2: that like and you know, and then I you know, 349 00:19:14,964 --> 00:19:17,404 Speaker 2: I actually got some quich backrooms people about. Like I 350 00:19:17,404 --> 00:19:20,004 Speaker 2: wrote an article last week saying, okay, enough with the 351 00:19:20,124 --> 00:19:23,444 Speaker 2: media victory lap here, right, I mean, maybe we should 352 00:19:23,524 --> 00:19:26,084 Speaker 2: have Like there's all this reporting. I understand when you're 353 00:19:26,124 --> 00:19:28,644 Speaker 2: reporting a book that sometimes people tell you things on 354 00:19:28,684 --> 00:19:30,964 Speaker 2: the condition of it's going to come out in a year, right, 355 00:19:31,004 --> 00:19:32,724 Speaker 2: I mean, for on the edge. I had some of that. 356 00:19:32,764 --> 00:19:34,964 Speaker 2: People say, well, i'll talk to you on the record 357 00:19:35,284 --> 00:19:37,004 Speaker 2: because I won't be published for a few years, and 358 00:19:37,044 --> 00:19:39,244 Speaker 2: I trust you to do a fair job, whereas I 359 00:19:39,244 --> 00:19:41,324 Speaker 2: couldn't just go turn around and write like a newsletter 360 00:19:41,324 --> 00:19:45,684 Speaker 2: post about that or something. Right, But still, I mean, 361 00:19:46,244 --> 00:19:48,764 Speaker 2: you know, I love the US was lucky, I think, 362 00:19:48,804 --> 00:19:52,164 Speaker 2: to avoid an acute crisis. 363 00:19:52,604 --> 00:19:56,124 Speaker 1: Yeah, it absolutely was. And just for you know, for 364 00:19:56,164 --> 00:19:57,924 Speaker 1: the record, I have not read either book. I've read 365 00:19:58,004 --> 00:20:01,844 Speaker 1: some excerpts from both of them, but some of the 366 00:20:02,044 --> 00:20:05,124 Speaker 1: some of the information there is pretty damning in the 367 00:20:05,164 --> 00:20:07,804 Speaker 1: sense of not recognizing George Clooney, which by the way, 368 00:20:07,884 --> 00:20:11,404 Speaker 1: is huge, right, Like let's just let's just say that 369 00:20:11,844 --> 00:20:15,884 Speaker 1: George George Clooney's face, Nate, So, I don't know if 370 00:20:15,924 --> 00:20:18,724 Speaker 1: you know this, but he so there are psych studies 371 00:20:19,244 --> 00:20:24,204 Speaker 1: on brain damage kind of different types of neural damage 372 00:20:24,244 --> 00:20:28,324 Speaker 1: and kind of cognitive function loss, and George Clooney is 373 00:20:28,444 --> 00:20:31,644 Speaker 1: one of the faces that's used to kind of look 374 00:20:31,644 --> 00:20:35,284 Speaker 1: at that he is so recognizable and such an iconic 375 00:20:35,404 --> 00:20:38,724 Speaker 1: celebrity that his face is actually one of the like 376 00:20:38,804 --> 00:20:43,364 Speaker 1: classic study materials where you assess cognitive function because sometimes 377 00:20:43,404 --> 00:20:46,284 Speaker 1: people like I might not recognize you even though i've 378 00:20:46,284 --> 00:20:49,764 Speaker 1: known you, but I'll recognize George Clooney, right, And sometimes 379 00:20:49,844 --> 00:20:52,164 Speaker 1: I won't quite recognize, but I'll be like, oh, you know, 380 00:20:52,804 --> 00:20:55,444 Speaker 1: so he is one of those faces that's used so 381 00:20:55,644 --> 00:20:58,564 Speaker 1: to me, like it was an added like oh my god, right, 382 00:20:58,684 --> 00:21:01,044 Speaker 1: not recognizing him when you actually know him and he's 383 00:21:01,084 --> 00:21:05,244 Speaker 1: actually a friend, like that is not something that you dismiss, right, 384 00:21:05,324 --> 00:21:08,364 Speaker 1: that is something that if you're a doctor. I was 385 00:21:08,404 --> 00:21:10,124 Speaker 1: going to say, if you're a but you don't need 386 00:21:10,164 --> 00:21:12,604 Speaker 1: to be a psychiatrist. If you're anyone, you have to 387 00:21:12,644 --> 00:21:15,844 Speaker 1: be like, Okay, you know something is actually wrong and 388 00:21:15,884 --> 00:21:17,844 Speaker 1: you need to assess this and we need to figure 389 00:21:17,884 --> 00:21:21,444 Speaker 1: out what the hell happened. It's much worse than thinking 390 00:21:21,444 --> 00:21:24,204 Speaker 1: you just spoke to Metronde even though he's not been 391 00:21:24,244 --> 00:21:26,924 Speaker 1: the president of France for quite some time. Right, So 392 00:21:27,404 --> 00:21:30,924 Speaker 1: in some in some ways like that's that's a oh 393 00:21:30,964 --> 00:21:33,644 Speaker 1: shit moment, like what are we even doing here? And 394 00:21:33,684 --> 00:21:35,804 Speaker 1: there's so many of those that I just saw in 395 00:21:35,844 --> 00:21:39,564 Speaker 1: the excerts, and obviously excerts are chosen for the juicy bits, 396 00:21:39,604 --> 00:21:42,764 Speaker 1: but it does seem like there was kind of a 397 00:21:42,764 --> 00:21:47,404 Speaker 1: consensus to protect the president, and that's the wrong incentive structure, right, 398 00:21:47,484 --> 00:21:50,284 Speaker 1: The incentive should be to protect the country and to 399 00:21:50,324 --> 00:21:52,484 Speaker 1: make sure that the country is on a good path, 400 00:21:52,524 --> 00:21:53,684 Speaker 1: not to protect a man. 401 00:21:53,964 --> 00:21:56,644 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's a whole history of older presidents. 402 00:21:56,684 --> 00:21:59,044 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Woodrow Wilson had a stroke and 403 00:22:00,164 --> 00:22:01,884 Speaker 2: the second term was a disaster. He wanted to run 404 00:22:01,924 --> 00:22:04,804 Speaker 2: for like a third term, and Harry Truman kind of 405 00:22:04,804 --> 00:22:06,804 Speaker 2: had to be shown. So what happened is until nineteen 406 00:22:07,884 --> 00:22:12,324 Speaker 2: seventy two, basically parties their candidates and the proverbial smoke 407 00:22:12,364 --> 00:22:15,244 Speaker 2: Philip brooms, Right, So if the Democratic Party were getting 408 00:22:15,244 --> 00:22:17,764 Speaker 2: together in privately, say you know what, we've all heard 409 00:22:17,804 --> 00:22:19,884 Speaker 2: these stories about Joe Biden, and so now it's going 410 00:22:19,964 --> 00:22:22,284 Speaker 2: to be Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro or maybe Harris would 411 00:22:22,284 --> 00:22:25,284 Speaker 2: have a good chance, et cetera. Right, like, and it's 412 00:22:25,324 --> 00:22:27,044 Speaker 2: some kind of we went up with this in between 413 00:22:27,124 --> 00:22:32,284 Speaker 2: where like there wasn't really a primary. I don't know, 414 00:22:32,684 --> 00:22:37,284 Speaker 2: it's yeah, you know, I just think, you know, any 415 00:22:37,404 --> 00:22:41,804 Speaker 2: inner circle Biden person just has direct moral responsibility for 416 00:22:41,884 --> 00:22:43,844 Speaker 2: the election outcome, you know. 417 00:22:43,764 --> 00:22:47,764 Speaker 1: What, exactly exactly, and in protecting Biden here we are, 418 00:22:47,964 --> 00:22:51,004 Speaker 1: right we you handed the country to Donald Trump and 419 00:22:51,084 --> 00:22:54,844 Speaker 1: everything that comes with that. But Nate, the very human 420 00:22:55,284 --> 00:22:59,964 Speaker 1: response to just once you're lying to Lie, Lie, Lie 421 00:23:00,004 --> 00:23:03,604 Speaker 1: and Lie. I think that's a great on entry point 422 00:23:03,924 --> 00:23:06,484 Speaker 1: to something else we wanted to talk about. 423 00:23:06,524 --> 00:23:07,804 Speaker 2: Aunt Elizabeth holmes career. 424 00:23:07,964 --> 00:23:10,804 Speaker 1: Let's take a break and talk about the new startup 425 00:23:10,964 --> 00:23:13,084 Speaker 1: from Billy Evans. 426 00:23:27,644 --> 00:23:27,804 Speaker 2: Nate. 427 00:23:28,244 --> 00:23:33,084 Speaker 1: This is a blast from the past show. Elizabeth Holmes 428 00:23:33,404 --> 00:23:36,644 Speaker 1: is back in the news. Our listeners and people who 429 00:23:37,004 --> 00:23:40,764 Speaker 1: you know have followed any news media kind of for 430 00:23:41,164 --> 00:23:45,004 Speaker 1: the last few years know her as the head of Thernos, 431 00:23:45,604 --> 00:23:52,444 Speaker 1: founder of a game changer in blood diagnostic technology. Basically 432 00:23:52,604 --> 00:23:56,884 Speaker 1: had all the big Silicon Valley big wigs behind her, 433 00:23:57,044 --> 00:24:00,564 Speaker 1: Henry Kissinger on her board, so got some politics in 434 00:24:00,644 --> 00:24:03,724 Speaker 1: there as well, and it all turned out to be 435 00:24:03,764 --> 00:24:07,084 Speaker 1: a huge grift, and more than a grift, a very 436 00:24:07,204 --> 00:24:12,404 Speaker 1: bloody grift pun intended because the results were bogus. The 437 00:24:12,444 --> 00:24:18,484 Speaker 1: blood work was absolutely fraudulent, and people were misdiagnosed. It 438 00:24:18,524 --> 00:24:22,364 Speaker 1: was just an absolute disaster. Holmes is currently in prison 439 00:24:23,124 --> 00:24:27,724 Speaker 1: serving a sentence for her role in Parahose, but she's 440 00:24:27,764 --> 00:24:29,684 Speaker 1: still posts for a photo for The New York Times 441 00:24:29,684 --> 00:24:32,484 Speaker 1: with her partner Billy Evans, who has a new startup 442 00:24:32,564 --> 00:24:37,844 Speaker 1: called Hamanthus, which is a flower known as the blood lily. 443 00:24:38,244 --> 00:24:40,924 Speaker 1: Ha ha ha, because do you know what the startup 444 00:24:41,004 --> 00:24:44,964 Speaker 1: is going to do. It is going to size how 445 00:24:45,044 --> 00:24:51,124 Speaker 1: we test blood for diseases? Does that does that concern 446 00:24:51,164 --> 00:24:51,564 Speaker 1: you at all? 447 00:24:52,844 --> 00:24:56,924 Speaker 2: Yeah? Look, I remember reading the uh reading the book 448 00:24:57,084 --> 00:25:00,044 Speaker 2: Bad Blood by the most journal journalist, John carry You I. 449 00:25:00,004 --> 00:25:02,164 Speaker 1: Believe, Yeah, great book. 450 00:25:02,324 --> 00:25:04,404 Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know it reminds me a little bit 451 00:25:04,444 --> 00:25:06,724 Speaker 2: of the Biden thing you that, like it was so 452 00:25:06,844 --> 00:25:11,524 Speaker 2: obvious from the star this was like seriously fraudular. It 453 00:25:11,524 --> 00:25:14,804 Speaker 2: wasn't like it wasn't so with like with like FTX, 454 00:25:14,804 --> 00:25:18,884 Speaker 2: which is the other most famous fraud of this quarter century. 455 00:25:19,004 --> 00:25:21,044 Speaker 2: I guess right, I guess Enron is a little too 456 00:25:21,164 --> 00:25:27,284 Speaker 2: as aged out. You know, fts itself was a legitimate 457 00:25:28,124 --> 00:25:32,924 Speaker 2: and quite well regarded platform for exchanging crypto assets, right, 458 00:25:33,164 --> 00:25:35,204 Speaker 2: Like that part of the business was the legitimate whatever 459 00:25:35,244 --> 00:25:39,044 Speaker 2: you think of crypto right, and then SBF was siphoning 460 00:25:39,084 --> 00:25:41,964 Speaker 2: money to make a whole bunch of like trades on 461 00:25:42,124 --> 00:25:45,444 Speaker 2: the side that were customer deposits, right whereas therhnos it's 462 00:25:45,444 --> 00:25:50,964 Speaker 2: like it was all a ruse you know, they actually 463 00:25:51,084 --> 00:25:53,604 Speaker 2: recruited a lot of people who like weren't traditional Silicon 464 00:25:53,684 --> 00:25:56,764 Speaker 2: Valley vcs, but were very well in network. They're like, oh, 465 00:25:56,764 --> 00:26:00,444 Speaker 2: this is a future of medicine, and and here's you know, 466 00:26:02,404 --> 00:26:04,124 Speaker 2: let me put this carefully, right, I think there was 467 00:26:04,164 --> 00:26:11,004 Speaker 2: a lot of excitement over a woman founder. She knew dignitaries, 468 00:26:11,044 --> 00:26:13,484 Speaker 2: and she had a great rolodex, right, and like she 469 00:26:13,564 --> 00:26:15,844 Speaker 2: read a lot of buzz and got a different investment 470 00:26:15,924 --> 00:26:20,404 Speaker 2: profile than a typical early stage startup might where maybe 471 00:26:20,404 --> 00:26:24,924 Speaker 2: there was less scrutiny, but I don't know. 472 00:26:25,524 --> 00:26:27,844 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean I think that she was and 473 00:26:28,204 --> 00:26:31,644 Speaker 1: this is I think the reason why if her partner's 474 00:26:31,644 --> 00:26:37,044 Speaker 1: startup is also noteworthy. I think that she brilliantly hit 475 00:26:37,164 --> 00:26:41,204 Speaker 1: on all of the flaws in venture capital funding, right, 476 00:26:41,284 --> 00:26:45,124 Speaker 1: and how Silicon Valley operates in general, what the incentive 477 00:26:45,124 --> 00:26:48,244 Speaker 1: structures are, what they look at, what they don't look at, 478 00:26:48,324 --> 00:26:52,044 Speaker 1: which is also absolutely crucial. So you know, the model 479 00:26:52,084 --> 00:26:55,044 Speaker 1: obviously is, you know, we invest in tons of stuff 480 00:26:55,084 --> 00:26:56,724 Speaker 1: and most of it's going to fail, but if you aren't, 481 00:26:56,724 --> 00:27:02,964 Speaker 1: going to be kind of are stars with completely outsized returns, right, 482 00:27:03,004 --> 00:27:06,644 Speaker 1: And that's how kind of the VC world works, and 483 00:27:07,044 --> 00:27:12,724 Speaker 1: they love stories, and they love compelling narratives, compelling people. 484 00:27:13,164 --> 00:27:17,404 Speaker 1: You know something, They love con artists basically because the 485 00:27:17,404 --> 00:27:20,604 Speaker 1: best storytellers in the world are con artists who paint 486 00:27:20,684 --> 00:27:23,844 Speaker 1: you a beautiful picture of blue skies and what's possible 487 00:27:24,164 --> 00:27:26,724 Speaker 1: and why this is going to be the idea that 488 00:27:26,804 --> 00:27:29,884 Speaker 1: changes everything. They want to believe in that because their 489 00:27:30,084 --> 00:27:33,804 Speaker 1: incentive structure is such that they, you know, if one 490 00:27:33,844 --> 00:27:35,724 Speaker 1: of those is actually true and not a con artists 491 00:27:35,724 --> 00:27:39,444 Speaker 1: beautiful right, like, there's my there's my outsized return that's 492 00:27:39,444 --> 00:27:42,484 Speaker 1: going to pay for everything and make me look like 493 00:27:42,524 --> 00:27:46,884 Speaker 1: an absolute genius. And the problem is oftentimes, you know, 494 00:27:46,924 --> 00:27:49,444 Speaker 1: it's it's hard to it's hard to tell, you know, 495 00:27:49,924 --> 00:27:52,604 Speaker 1: where where the line is between a compelling story with 496 00:27:52,644 --> 00:27:54,924 Speaker 1: a real idea compelling story with a not real idea. 497 00:27:54,964 --> 00:27:58,044 Speaker 1: In this case, as you point out, Nate, it's very clear, 498 00:27:58,204 --> 00:28:02,724 Speaker 1: very early on that there were major, major holes in 499 00:28:04,044 --> 00:28:09,324 Speaker 1: Elizabeth Holmes's story, but because of kind of a lot 500 00:28:09,484 --> 00:28:13,524 Speaker 1: of the glamour associated with it motivated reasoning. Right, this 501 00:28:13,564 --> 00:28:15,804 Speaker 1: is what we're we were talking about when we were 502 00:28:15,844 --> 00:28:18,564 Speaker 1: talking about Biden. It's easy to overlook it if your 503 00:28:19,404 --> 00:28:24,124 Speaker 1: incentives are to believe, and we've talked about a lot 504 00:28:24,164 --> 00:28:26,964 Speaker 1: of those holes. You know the fact that she dropped out. 505 00:28:27,084 --> 00:28:30,444 Speaker 1: Her former advisor said this is you know, the saying good. 506 00:28:30,564 --> 00:28:33,204 Speaker 1: A lot of prominent scientists were like, this is bullshit. 507 00:28:33,444 --> 00:28:36,524 Speaker 1: You know, a lot of the data just never released. 508 00:28:36,764 --> 00:28:39,044 Speaker 1: A lot of these things were huge with flags. People 509 00:28:39,084 --> 00:28:44,124 Speaker 1: started resigning very early on over the lack of scientific data, 510 00:28:44,164 --> 00:28:47,484 Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And yet like what if, right, 511 00:28:47,564 --> 00:28:50,404 Speaker 1: like that what if is huge? Like what if we're 512 00:28:50,444 --> 00:28:54,164 Speaker 1: the ones who miss out? FOMO is big? And we 513 00:28:54,244 --> 00:28:56,804 Speaker 1: don't want to be the people who passed on the beatles? 514 00:28:57,124 --> 00:28:59,124 Speaker 1: Like you don't want to be that cautionary tale, and 515 00:28:59,204 --> 00:29:01,844 Speaker 1: so you just want to kind of go go along 516 00:29:01,884 --> 00:29:06,084 Speaker 1: with it. And that creates this culture where grifters thrive. 517 00:29:06,444 --> 00:29:08,404 Speaker 1: And I'm I mean, I would bet a lot of 518 00:29:08,404 --> 00:29:10,884 Speaker 1: money that there are other cons that have been funded 519 00:29:10,924 --> 00:29:14,724 Speaker 1: by vcs in Silicon Valley right now that we don't 520 00:29:14,964 --> 00:29:17,164 Speaker 1: know about yet, and that we might never know about 521 00:29:17,204 --> 00:29:19,644 Speaker 1: because they might just kind of peter out, They might 522 00:29:19,724 --> 00:29:23,124 Speaker 1: not ever ever be kind of as as headlining as 523 00:29:23,484 --> 00:29:26,324 Speaker 1: Elizabeth Holmes. But the fact now that her partner is 524 00:29:26,364 --> 00:29:30,084 Speaker 1: doing you know he's saying, you know what, the appetite 525 00:29:30,124 --> 00:29:32,084 Speaker 1: for this is strong enough that I am going to 526 00:29:32,604 --> 00:29:33,364 Speaker 1: do this again. 527 00:29:33,524 --> 00:29:36,204 Speaker 2: Look, I you know, I have been pulling up the 528 00:29:36,284 --> 00:29:39,124 Speaker 2: list of investors that there knows had and it's like 529 00:29:39,724 --> 00:29:44,164 Speaker 2: it conspicuously, conspicuously omits a lot of the traditional and 530 00:29:44,204 --> 00:29:47,764 Speaker 2: recent horror with Sequoia type firms. I think. I think 531 00:29:47,804 --> 00:29:50,844 Speaker 2: people did have concerns, and a lot of people in 532 00:29:50,884 --> 00:29:52,804 Speaker 2: those firms make a lot of mistakes. I think sometimes 533 00:29:52,844 --> 00:29:55,204 Speaker 2: you have to wonder, well, if they passed on it, 534 00:29:55,324 --> 00:29:58,084 Speaker 2: right because they are terrified of like passing on the 535 00:29:58,124 --> 00:30:02,084 Speaker 2: next big thing, then that's probably has some yeah, for sure, 536 00:30:02,204 --> 00:30:07,884 Speaker 2: signaling value. Right. But the general point is absolutely correct. 537 00:30:07,884 --> 00:30:11,564 Speaker 2: I mean when I you know, I just reported it 538 00:30:11,564 --> 00:30:14,684 Speaker 2: in the book, right, So I was invited to like 539 00:30:14,724 --> 00:30:17,284 Speaker 2: an in recent Horwitz conference and it came off the 540 00:30:17,284 --> 00:30:21,084 Speaker 2: record very quickly, right, But before they told the skull 541 00:30:21,124 --> 00:30:23,644 Speaker 2: off the record. The guy they had on stage was 542 00:30:23,684 --> 00:30:27,284 Speaker 2: Adam Newman, who is the founder of we Work. Very 543 00:30:28,284 --> 00:30:34,044 Speaker 2: charismatic guy, you've ever interacted with him? Right, But also 544 00:30:34,284 --> 00:30:38,364 Speaker 2: there were all types of problems with we Work where 545 00:30:38,404 --> 00:30:42,404 Speaker 2: it's valuation crater, and he was accused of like smoking 546 00:30:42,404 --> 00:30:44,964 Speaker 2: weed on international jets and things like that. Right, and 547 00:30:45,004 --> 00:30:48,084 Speaker 2: they were proud to say we're investing in his new startup, 548 00:30:48,204 --> 00:30:50,524 Speaker 2: right because they're like, we want high variants if you're 549 00:30:50,564 --> 00:30:52,924 Speaker 2: good enough to build kind of the like we work 550 00:30:53,004 --> 00:30:56,204 Speaker 2: wasn't like fake in the way that Faranos was right. 551 00:30:56,244 --> 00:30:58,524 Speaker 2: If you're right, if you're able to build a company 552 00:30:58,604 --> 00:31:00,524 Speaker 2: like whatever, it was sixty billion dollars evaluation on the 553 00:31:00,604 --> 00:31:02,604 Speaker 2: right to the ground, Well it's still close to than 554 00:31:02,604 --> 00:31:06,124 Speaker 2: most people come. Right, So your high variants and high upside, 555 00:31:06,724 --> 00:31:10,124 Speaker 2: and so we want that skill set. And I guess 556 00:31:10,164 --> 00:31:13,084 Speaker 2: that's kind of the same idea here. I mean, you know, 557 00:31:13,204 --> 00:31:17,324 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, if SBF or Elizabeth Holmes 558 00:31:18,204 --> 00:31:22,004 Speaker 2: wanted to invest a new startup, they probably get some funding. 559 00:31:22,164 --> 00:31:25,324 Speaker 1: I think I think they would as well. This is 560 00:31:26,764 --> 00:31:29,564 Speaker 1: you know, this is one of those things where I 561 00:31:29,604 --> 00:31:33,764 Speaker 1: think it's true in a lot of the finance community. 562 00:31:33,844 --> 00:31:38,604 Speaker 1: You have people like who you know, not even startups 563 00:31:38,604 --> 00:31:42,204 Speaker 1: in the hedge fund industry who've blown up multiple hedge funds. 564 00:31:43,364 --> 00:31:46,404 Speaker 1: Basically their investors lost all their money and there were 565 00:31:46,564 --> 00:31:49,484 Speaker 1: spectacular failures, and they still get money, right, they still 566 00:31:49,524 --> 00:31:52,044 Speaker 1: are able to raise fun Number two they're able to 567 00:31:52,124 --> 00:31:54,844 Speaker 1: raise fund number three because at some point they had 568 00:31:54,844 --> 00:31:58,764 Speaker 1: a good track record, and these are you know, oftentimes Nate. 569 00:31:59,164 --> 00:32:03,044 Speaker 1: As we know, there's variance, and so that initial track 570 00:32:03,084 --> 00:32:05,484 Speaker 1: record might have been an absolute fluke. You know that 571 00:32:05,524 --> 00:32:08,164 Speaker 1: in poker, right, you have some poker players who just 572 00:32:08,484 --> 00:32:11,444 Speaker 1: have stellar starf and it's not because they're brilliant players. 573 00:32:11,964 --> 00:32:14,884 Speaker 1: It's because they got ridiculously lucky. But in poker, it's 574 00:32:14,924 --> 00:32:17,844 Speaker 1: actually much easier to see that, to see through the noise, 575 00:32:17,924 --> 00:32:21,844 Speaker 1: and eventually, you know, those players go bust. But in 576 00:32:21,884 --> 00:32:24,844 Speaker 1: the world of stock markets, sometimes you know, it's easier 577 00:32:24,884 --> 00:32:28,244 Speaker 1: to take it's noisier, right, so it's harder to be like, oh, 578 00:32:28,284 --> 00:32:30,444 Speaker 1: this was just someone who was a luck box, not 579 00:32:30,564 --> 00:32:33,244 Speaker 1: someone who's a good investor. And so if you're initially 580 00:32:33,284 --> 00:32:35,284 Speaker 1: a luck box, then you get money over and over 581 00:32:35,324 --> 00:32:37,364 Speaker 1: and over, even if you just keep blowing it up. 582 00:32:37,924 --> 00:32:39,684 Speaker 1: And think about how many poker players, by the way, 583 00:32:39,724 --> 00:32:41,964 Speaker 1: even in a world that's less noisy, go bust multiple 584 00:32:42,044 --> 00:32:45,724 Speaker 1: times and yet still find people to lend them money. 585 00:32:46,404 --> 00:32:49,324 Speaker 1: And so I think that we do see this sort 586 00:32:49,444 --> 00:32:52,444 Speaker 1: of thinking in that world over and over and over, 587 00:32:52,724 --> 00:32:55,604 Speaker 1: and so I think absolutely once you know Elizabeth Holmes 588 00:32:55,604 --> 00:32:58,004 Speaker 1: eleven years are up. If she wants to do company 589 00:32:58,084 --> 00:33:01,044 Speaker 1: number two, some people will invest in her, even though 590 00:33:01,084 --> 00:33:03,204 Speaker 1: there are probably a lot of people you should invest 591 00:33:03,244 --> 00:33:06,484 Speaker 1: in before you invest in her. And in the meantime, 592 00:33:06,604 --> 00:33:09,284 Speaker 1: you know, I have a hard time. I know nothing 593 00:33:09,484 --> 00:33:13,524 Speaker 1: about Billy Evans other than you know what he's doing 594 00:33:13,604 --> 00:33:16,804 Speaker 1: right now and that he's Elizabeth Holmes's partner. And to me, 595 00:33:16,924 --> 00:33:19,884 Speaker 1: that's you know, I hate judging someone who I've never met, 596 00:33:20,084 --> 00:33:22,884 Speaker 1: but that's pretty damning. Like do we think, like, is 597 00:33:22,924 --> 00:33:26,924 Speaker 1: there is there a universe where he's a true believer? 598 00:33:27,164 --> 00:33:28,364 Speaker 1: I don't think so. Yeah. 599 00:33:28,644 --> 00:33:31,244 Speaker 2: By the way, it's not even that like it's not 600 00:33:31,284 --> 00:33:34,884 Speaker 2: even like crazy to think that like Adam Newman could 601 00:33:34,884 --> 00:33:38,364 Speaker 2: build a successful another successful startup at some point, Right, 602 00:33:38,364 --> 00:33:41,284 Speaker 2: It's just felt like, why pick him right when you 603 00:33:41,524 --> 00:33:45,444 Speaker 2: have more options than you can possibly have to in 604 00:33:45,564 --> 00:33:47,244 Speaker 2: time to even look at right. 605 00:33:47,284 --> 00:33:50,404 Speaker 1: Absolutely, and you know that his behavior hasn't really improved. Right, 606 00:33:50,444 --> 00:33:52,764 Speaker 1: So even if he does build something successful like there's 607 00:33:52,964 --> 00:33:55,284 Speaker 1: he's also a wild card, like he might blow it 608 00:33:55,364 --> 00:33:57,204 Speaker 1: up just by virtue of who he is and the 609 00:33:57,244 --> 00:34:00,284 Speaker 1: types of things that he's prone to do. You know 610 00:34:00,764 --> 00:34:04,124 Speaker 1: why are you investing in someone like that? I totally 611 00:34:04,204 --> 00:34:07,044 Speaker 1: agree with you date and yeah, and while you know, 612 00:34:07,084 --> 00:34:09,684 Speaker 1: we with someone like Billy Evans who does have a 613 00:34:09,724 --> 00:34:12,324 Speaker 1: track record, like might be a good guy, like we might, 614 00:34:12,404 --> 00:34:15,884 Speaker 1: we might look at him and be like, oh, you know, everything, 615 00:34:16,004 --> 00:34:19,884 Speaker 1: everything is great, but it just why if you're if 616 00:34:19,884 --> 00:34:24,964 Speaker 1: you're an entrepreneur and like your partner is Elizabeth Holmes, 617 00:34:24,964 --> 00:34:27,244 Speaker 1: and you know, like you know how that shit went down, 618 00:34:27,244 --> 00:34:29,764 Speaker 1: and you know, the science was not there by the 619 00:34:29,804 --> 00:34:32,844 Speaker 1: way for being able to test you know, one single 620 00:34:32,884 --> 00:34:35,284 Speaker 1: drop of blood like that was there was no science 621 00:34:35,324 --> 00:34:38,364 Speaker 1: behind it. It was just not possible to do what 622 00:34:38,404 --> 00:34:40,364 Speaker 1: you wanted to do and to say that, oh no, 623 00:34:40,524 --> 00:34:43,564 Speaker 1: well now you know, now we have the science behind 624 00:34:43,724 --> 00:34:46,684 Speaker 1: trying to do the exact same machine. Basically, like man, 625 00:34:46,764 --> 00:34:49,364 Speaker 1: oh man, is he going to be able to raise 626 00:34:49,404 --> 00:34:52,004 Speaker 1: the fifty million dollars that he wants initially and he 627 00:34:52,004 --> 00:34:55,004 Speaker 1: says he'll need seventy, you know, to really kind of 628 00:34:55,004 --> 00:34:59,164 Speaker 1: bring it to scientific fruition. I really, I honestly hope not, 629 00:34:59,324 --> 00:35:02,844 Speaker 1: because it's gonna, like my estimation is already pretty low 630 00:35:02,844 --> 00:35:05,004 Speaker 1: of that world, it's going to fall even further if 631 00:35:05,084 --> 00:35:07,244 Speaker 1: there are people who are willing to give him fifty 632 00:35:07,244 --> 00:35:08,764 Speaker 1: to seventy million dollars. 633 00:35:08,524 --> 00:35:11,404 Speaker 2: To people be responsible for what their partners do. 634 00:35:12,484 --> 00:35:17,484 Speaker 1: No, but if you are launching an identical startup to 635 00:35:17,564 --> 00:35:20,644 Speaker 1: the fraud that was perpetrated by your partner for which 636 00:35:20,644 --> 00:35:23,084 Speaker 1: she is now serving jail time, I don't know. To me, 637 00:35:23,164 --> 00:35:24,324 Speaker 1: that's a little bit different. 638 00:35:26,244 --> 00:35:28,884 Speaker 2: I mean during the wokeness peak, there was like this 639 00:35:30,564 --> 00:35:34,444 Speaker 2: MLS soccer player who's like, whyif had like put on 640 00:35:34,484 --> 00:35:36,244 Speaker 2: social media a bunch of really racist stuff and then 641 00:35:36,284 --> 00:35:39,364 Speaker 2: he had to like leave the team, right, which doesn't 642 00:35:39,364 --> 00:35:40,204 Speaker 2: seem very No. 643 00:35:40,244 --> 00:35:42,564 Speaker 1: That's that's totally not fair. It just you know, I 644 00:35:42,564 --> 00:35:44,324 Speaker 1: think it's there's a lot of nuance there, and it 645 00:35:44,364 --> 00:35:47,204 Speaker 1: depends on depends on the circumstances. So no, I don't 646 00:35:47,204 --> 00:35:50,124 Speaker 1: think you're responsible for what your partner does. But then 647 00:35:50,164 --> 00:35:53,244 Speaker 1: when you go on and try to do the exact 648 00:35:53,244 --> 00:35:56,364 Speaker 1: same thing your partners in in prison for, I think 649 00:35:56,364 --> 00:35:57,524 Speaker 1: that's a little bit different. 650 00:35:58,044 --> 00:36:01,284 Speaker 2: What's what's the startup's name again? Oh? Hea? He told 651 00:36:01,284 --> 00:36:02,524 Speaker 2: me that it's like the blood flower. 652 00:36:02,324 --> 00:36:04,804 Speaker 1: Yeah, blood lily. But hey, it is what it is, 653 00:36:04,844 --> 00:36:08,644 Speaker 1: and we will see what happens. And all I can 654 00:36:08,684 --> 00:36:12,204 Speaker 1: say is, please venture capitalists who listen to our show 655 00:36:12,644 --> 00:36:16,084 Speaker 1: Silicon Valley. More broadly, like, please try to invest in 656 00:36:16,124 --> 00:36:20,284 Speaker 1: people who actually have the background for what they're doing 657 00:36:21,044 --> 00:36:23,684 Speaker 1: and who are credible, and not just because they know 658 00:36:23,764 --> 00:36:27,884 Speaker 1: how to tell a compelling story. Storytelling ain't all there is, 659 00:36:28,084 --> 00:36:30,124 Speaker 1: even though I know that that's what you like to reward, 660 00:36:30,404 --> 00:36:32,604 Speaker 1: So please try to heed that storytelling. 661 00:36:32,644 --> 00:36:36,124 Speaker 2: I hate journalis are like storytelling and journalism like, I 662 00:36:36,124 --> 00:36:39,644 Speaker 2: fucking hate storytelling. I mean, I like storytelling, but the 663 00:36:39,684 --> 00:36:42,404 Speaker 2: minute you call it storytelling, it's like, that's just an 664 00:36:42,444 --> 00:36:47,724 Speaker 2: excuse to like prioritize the narrative over the facts and 665 00:36:47,764 --> 00:36:50,884 Speaker 2: their priority and to exactly put a little spin on 666 00:36:50,884 --> 00:36:51,204 Speaker 2: the ball. 667 00:36:51,444 --> 00:36:55,084 Speaker 1: I think, right, let's take a quick break and then, Nate, 668 00:36:55,124 --> 00:36:57,644 Speaker 1: I'd love to hear, you know, because I love conspiracy theories, 669 00:36:57,684 --> 00:37:01,324 Speaker 1: but I don't know much about the MAVs, so I 670 00:37:01,364 --> 00:37:04,244 Speaker 1: am very curious to hear about what all of this 671 00:37:04,364 --> 00:37:08,524 Speaker 1: conspiracy thinking is about. So let's get into it after 672 00:37:08,524 --> 00:37:28,484 Speaker 1: the break. Nay, tell me what is going on with 673 00:37:28,924 --> 00:37:32,644 Speaker 1: the MAVs and conspiracy theorists of the world over. 674 00:37:33,244 --> 00:37:37,404 Speaker 2: So, the Dallas Mavericks won the NBA Draft lottery, Was 675 00:37:37,444 --> 00:37:40,644 Speaker 2: it last week. I guess uh, they had a one 676 00:37:40,724 --> 00:37:43,804 Speaker 2: point eight percent chance of being picked the top teams 677 00:37:43,804 --> 00:37:45,844 Speaker 2: have ever read a fourteen or fifteen percent chance, and their 678 00:37:45,884 --> 00:37:49,764 Speaker 2: combination of ping pong balls came up. So they will 679 00:37:49,804 --> 00:37:53,444 Speaker 2: presumably drafting Cooper Flag who was the one of the 680 00:37:53,484 --> 00:37:55,884 Speaker 2: few college players ever to win National Player of the 681 00:37:55,964 --> 00:38:00,724 Speaker 2: Year as a freshman. Great player kid from from Maine, 682 00:38:00,884 --> 00:38:03,724 Speaker 2: which does not produce a lot of basketball prospects, but 683 00:38:03,844 --> 00:38:06,404 Speaker 2: you know, thought of it as the next potential superstar. 684 00:38:06,884 --> 00:38:10,884 Speaker 2: People quickly became suspicious part because, yeah, people underestimate that 685 00:38:10,924 --> 00:38:13,444 Speaker 2: one percent is not that low, right, It's like a 686 00:38:13,444 --> 00:38:20,484 Speaker 2: one hour in poker. But they had made an inexplicable 687 00:38:20,724 --> 00:38:23,604 Speaker 2: trade earlier this year where Luka Dacic maybe the top 688 00:38:24,404 --> 00:38:27,284 Speaker 2: my opinion, maybe about the fifth best player in the NBA, 689 00:38:27,324 --> 00:38:29,244 Speaker 2: SOE might have a little higher putting five or six 690 00:38:29,364 --> 00:38:33,284 Speaker 2: or something like that. Right was traded for Anthony Davis, 691 00:38:33,284 --> 00:38:36,844 Speaker 2: who prompably got hurt, and one first round pick and 692 00:38:36,884 --> 00:38:39,084 Speaker 2: a media for player named Max Christy. Right, and so like, 693 00:38:39,484 --> 00:38:41,444 Speaker 2: if you had done an auction around the league, we 694 00:38:41,444 --> 00:38:46,564 Speaker 2: would have gotten like literally twice as much of a return, 695 00:38:47,324 --> 00:38:49,484 Speaker 2: maybe more than that. Right they sold for like forty 696 00:38:49,524 --> 00:38:53,324 Speaker 2: cents on the dollar. However, conveniently, you now have Luca, 697 00:38:54,124 --> 00:38:57,484 Speaker 2: one of the league's glamour players, playing with Lebron James 698 00:38:57,524 --> 00:39:00,844 Speaker 2: in Los Angeles for the Lakers, one of the league's 699 00:39:00,844 --> 00:39:04,924 Speaker 2: glamour franchises. Right, Probably the Lakers are the premiere. You know, 700 00:39:04,964 --> 00:39:06,964 Speaker 2: if you want a team to be really good, probably 701 00:39:07,084 --> 00:39:10,044 Speaker 2: Lakers Knicks in that order if you're if you're the NBA, 702 00:39:11,244 --> 00:39:12,844 Speaker 2: So why would they do this? Well, if it turns 703 00:39:12,844 --> 00:39:15,724 Speaker 2: out they're also getting the first overall pick and Cooper flag, 704 00:39:15,964 --> 00:39:19,044 Speaker 2: that's a pretty fair trade ad and Cooper flag for Luca, 705 00:39:19,044 --> 00:39:21,604 Speaker 2: who's about to have to be contract extension looks pretty good, 706 00:39:21,604 --> 00:39:25,684 Speaker 2: and so that's triggered some conspiracy theories. It's not the 707 00:39:25,724 --> 00:39:32,844 Speaker 2: first time, right, you know Lebron James grew up in Akron, Ohio. Hmmm. 708 00:39:33,364 --> 00:39:37,724 Speaker 2: Convenient Commediately the Cleveland Cavaliers win the draft lottery that year, 709 00:39:37,804 --> 00:39:41,604 Speaker 2: for example, which other ones are alleged. You know, other 710 00:39:41,644 --> 00:39:44,484 Speaker 2: things were like when teams, you know, when the New 711 00:39:44,564 --> 00:39:47,324 Speaker 2: Orleans Pelicans, which were then like owned by the NBA, 712 00:39:47,444 --> 00:39:53,364 Speaker 2: like trade away also Anthony Davis, they got the first 713 00:39:53,364 --> 00:39:58,444 Speaker 2: Pickension Williamson. So whenever, whenever, there's a big prospect. You know, 714 00:39:58,524 --> 00:40:00,844 Speaker 2: it seems to end up in a convenient place. But 715 00:40:00,884 --> 00:40:04,444 Speaker 2: I'd say I'd say a few things about that, right, 716 00:40:04,644 --> 00:40:09,204 Speaker 2: Like number one, a lot of people would have to 717 00:40:09,244 --> 00:40:14,404 Speaker 2: be on this conspiracy, Right, they draw the ping pong 718 00:40:14,484 --> 00:40:16,844 Speaker 2: balls in front of the sealed room full of people 719 00:40:16,844 --> 00:40:20,684 Speaker 2: in the media. Zachlow, formerly a grant Land and ESPN 720 00:40:20,764 --> 00:40:23,644 Speaker 2: now of the Ringer, I believe, was among them. You 721 00:40:23,644 --> 00:40:26,324 Speaker 2: can go listen to his account on his show, right, 722 00:40:26,404 --> 00:40:29,604 Speaker 2: and like so you know, it's pretty transparent. They have 723 00:40:29,644 --> 00:40:32,404 Speaker 2: as complicated codes. It's like not just one ping pong ball, 724 00:40:32,444 --> 00:40:36,124 Speaker 2: but you draw four and each code lines up with 725 00:40:36,244 --> 00:40:38,724 Speaker 2: a set of teams that are are picked. Right, So 726 00:40:38,724 --> 00:40:42,564 Speaker 2: that have to you know, enlist Ernst and Young. I 727 00:40:42,564 --> 00:40:45,324 Speaker 2: believe the heccounting firm they work with to like rig 728 00:40:45,404 --> 00:40:51,324 Speaker 2: the actual mechanics of the ping pong ball, right, and 729 00:40:51,364 --> 00:40:52,844 Speaker 2: that would be a lot and a lot of peop 730 00:40:52,844 --> 00:40:56,444 Speaker 2: would have knowledge of this and would feel chafed about 731 00:40:56,444 --> 00:40:59,284 Speaker 2: it potentially. I mean, who knows. People, You know, people 732 00:40:59,684 --> 00:41:02,484 Speaker 2: kept titelcht about the Biden thing for a long period 733 00:41:02,484 --> 00:41:04,644 Speaker 2: of time. But like I'm also not sure that like 734 00:41:05,804 --> 00:41:09,444 Speaker 2: if you're the league necessarily would want Cooper Flag and 735 00:41:10,324 --> 00:41:12,684 Speaker 2: Dallas's posts. I mean maybe, I don't know, it is 736 00:41:12,684 --> 00:41:16,564 Speaker 2: a pretty big market, right maybe, I know, well what Nate. 737 00:41:18,684 --> 00:41:22,084 Speaker 1: In general, I always like to push back on conspiracy theories, 738 00:41:22,204 --> 00:41:25,844 Speaker 1: right because human mind loves to see to see them 739 00:41:25,884 --> 00:41:29,084 Speaker 1: where they don't exist. And we do know as poker players, 740 00:41:29,084 --> 00:41:31,924 Speaker 1: one outthers happen, right Like, man, they happen way more 741 00:41:31,924 --> 00:41:35,924 Speaker 1: often than you feel like they should happen. That said I, So, 742 00:41:36,164 --> 00:41:38,284 Speaker 1: you know, I'm working on a book about cheating, and 743 00:41:38,364 --> 00:41:40,324 Speaker 1: one of the one of the things that I was 744 00:41:40,364 --> 00:41:43,644 Speaker 1: recently researching. I don't know if you remember this, you know, 745 00:41:43,764 --> 00:41:46,444 Speaker 1: I wasn't born yet, but it was. It was a 746 00:41:46,524 --> 00:41:52,524 Speaker 1: huge scandal in nineteen eighty Pennsylvania lottery scandal, the Triple 747 00:41:52,564 --> 00:41:57,324 Speaker 1: six fix. They actually were able to rig the lottery 748 00:41:57,604 --> 00:42:01,204 Speaker 1: and they had specially weighted balls so that a special 749 00:42:01,284 --> 00:42:04,324 Speaker 1: limited number of combinations were more likely to be drawn. 750 00:42:04,684 --> 00:42:08,364 Speaker 1: And so yeah, obviously you need someone on the inside 751 00:42:08,444 --> 00:42:11,124 Speaker 1: in the in the balls. But this was done. You know, 752 00:42:11,164 --> 00:42:14,884 Speaker 1: this was done also on television, Like it was very 753 00:42:15,004 --> 00:42:18,004 Speaker 1: very controlled environment and yet like it's still possible to 754 00:42:18,604 --> 00:42:23,124 Speaker 1: introduce weighted balls into machines that make certain number of 755 00:42:23,124 --> 00:42:26,644 Speaker 1: combinations more likely to happen. And that's not the only 756 00:42:26,724 --> 00:42:28,844 Speaker 1: time that that's happened. That was just like a very 757 00:42:28,844 --> 00:42:32,524 Speaker 1: prominent example of that happening. And so I hate, I 758 00:42:32,564 --> 00:42:35,644 Speaker 1: don't want to honor conspiracy theorists, but I do just 759 00:42:35,684 --> 00:42:38,804 Speaker 1: want to point out that it is possible due to 760 00:42:38,964 --> 00:42:40,764 Speaker 1: rig lottery ball machines. 761 00:42:41,604 --> 00:42:47,244 Speaker 2: Shaquille O'Neil just allege that in nineteenninety two, then NBA 762 00:42:47,324 --> 00:42:49,644 Speaker 2: Commissioner David Stern asked him if he wanted to go 763 00:42:49,724 --> 00:42:53,684 Speaker 2: to a cold weather or a warm weather city. Guess 764 00:42:53,724 --> 00:42:56,004 Speaker 2: who want to happen to be the Orlando Magic one 765 00:42:56,004 --> 00:42:58,484 Speaker 2: of the warmest destinations in the NBA, not the Minnesota 766 00:42:58,484 --> 00:43:01,124 Speaker 2: Timberwolf or something like that. And so I think people 767 00:43:01,124 --> 00:43:03,044 Speaker 2: are mostly joking, and I think I'm mostly joking. I 768 00:43:03,084 --> 00:43:07,524 Speaker 2: would say not like there is there are big incentives 769 00:43:07,524 --> 00:43:12,044 Speaker 2: for like the league to to align talent to places 770 00:43:12,124 --> 00:43:16,284 Speaker 2: where they think the franchise that deserves it, right, But 771 00:43:16,404 --> 00:43:18,284 Speaker 2: like I mean, it's you know, I don't know there 772 00:43:18,284 --> 00:43:20,204 Speaker 2: would be you know, there would be a sentenced to 773 00:43:20,244 --> 00:43:23,244 Speaker 2: do it. Yeah, they should maybe say, yeah, we determined 774 00:43:23,284 --> 00:43:25,764 Speaker 2: these are the actual picks for the league, right. 775 00:43:26,084 --> 00:43:30,164 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, for sure, for sure. And I also am 776 00:43:30,164 --> 00:43:32,764 Speaker 1: mostly joking, and I think that it is important to 777 00:43:32,844 --> 00:43:36,284 Speaker 1: kind of to make it clear that it's unlikely that 778 00:43:36,364 --> 00:43:39,324 Speaker 1: anything is rigged. All I can say, Nate is you know, 779 00:43:39,404 --> 00:43:43,564 Speaker 1: next time you do a lottery ball lottery that has 780 00:43:43,884 --> 00:43:47,444 Speaker 1: little balls and machines, just keep one eyebrow up and 781 00:43:47,524 --> 00:43:54,284 Speaker 1: make sure that everything is weighted correctly before choosing your numbers. 782 00:43:59,124 --> 00:44:01,044 Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach 783 00:44:01,084 --> 00:44:04,844 Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot fm. 784 00:44:05,324 --> 00:44:07,564 Speaker 1: And by the way, if you're a Pushkin Plus subscriber, 785 00:44:07,604 --> 00:44:10,204 Speaker 1: we have some bonus content for you that's coming up 786 00:44:10,284 --> 00:44:11,244 Speaker 1: right after the credits. 787 00:44:11,604 --> 00:44:14,884 Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for 788 00:44:15,044 --> 00:44:17,244 Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month. What a nice price 789 00:44:17,564 --> 00:44:20,444 Speaker 2: you get access to all that premium content and for 790 00:44:20,564 --> 00:44:23,044 Speaker 2: listening across Pushkin's entire network of shows. 791 00:44:23,524 --> 00:44:27,044 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanikova. 792 00:44:26,324 --> 00:44:28,724 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co 793 00:44:28,764 --> 00:44:32,924 Speaker 2: production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 794 00:44:32,924 --> 00:44:36,764 Speaker 2: by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya Gerwitz. Sally 795 00:44:36,844 --> 00:44:39,844 Speaker 2: Helm is our editor and our Executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 796 00:44:40,364 --> 00:44:41,484 Speaker 2: Mixing by Sarah Bruger. 797 00:44:41,724 --> 00:44:42,884 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for tuning in.