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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume

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Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Nolman of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today I'm joined as always buy my co host, my

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Speaker 1: companion Mike and Padre might BFF professional better sign man

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Speaker 1: Hunter Ato.

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Speaker 2: So am in shat.

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Speaker 3: What a magical week the release of the schedule. It's

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Speaker 3: one of my favorite weeks of the year for a

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Speaker 3: football fan.

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Speaker 1: Simon, I know that over the weekend. Yeah, you had

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Speaker 1: planned on playing in a poker tournament that began at

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Speaker 1: eleven PM.

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Speaker 2: On Mother's Day.

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Speaker 1: On Mother's Day, which is fine, Like you know, your

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Speaker 1: mom was probably long past sleeping and you had done

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Speaker 1: your duty as a son throughout the day to honor

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Speaker 1: your mother. Did you play in the poker tournament? How

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Speaker 1: did it go?

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Speaker 2: Did so?

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Speaker 3: It was the final table, That's why it was at

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Speaker 3: such a weird late hour, and there was ten of us.

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Speaker 3: I unfortunately took eighth, but going in, I was a

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Speaker 3: short stack, and I basically I'm a weird person with

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Speaker 3: numbers chat as you know, and seven four suited is

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Speaker 3: my lucky favorite hand. I think I was the fourth

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Speaker 3: blind in, so I was maybe two guys already been

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Speaker 3: knocked out. And then I was at this point the

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Speaker 3: small blind, so I'm already invested and get the seven

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Speaker 3: fourth suited, had to shove guy pocket tens and basically

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Speaker 3: got very lucky.

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Speaker 2: On the right.

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Speaker 3: I basically flopped trips and this guy rivers the ten.

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Speaker 3: So it's fun, it's gambling, yeah, but.

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Speaker 2: It was just a classic b too.

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Speaker 3: Where as soon as I saw his hand and I

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Speaker 3: got the trips on the flop, I go, well, this

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Speaker 3: is a dead hand. I'm gonna lose this. There's no

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Speaker 3: way it never you never want to flop it. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's it's something I love doing the off season and

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Speaker 3: we'll see World Chairs of Poker. I'm getting the itch,

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Speaker 3: I got ten k to burn. I might end up

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Speaker 3: down in Vegas. I'm playing in that tournament.

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Speaker 2: We'll say.

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Speaker 1: So when you saw the river, like, what went like.

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Speaker 3: I already grabbed my bag, chat, I was already gone, yeah,

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Speaker 3: thanked everybody. As soon as I flopped it, I thanked

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Speaker 3: everybody and grabbed my bag and yeah, so it was

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Speaker 3: already walking off and it's just especially at that time.

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Speaker 3: So I think at this point, it might have been

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Speaker 3: just getting to midnight or just before, and I was

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Speaker 3: like all right, perfect, I'll get home just in time

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Speaker 3: to get some rest and hop on the pod.

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Speaker 1: I mean you were yeah, you were barely there. You

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Speaker 1: were there for less than an hour.

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Speaker 2: Then exactly exactly.

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Speaker 3: I spent more time in the sports book, hanging out

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Speaker 3: watching the games, and I did actually playing on the tournament.

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Speaker 1: I will look speaking of sportsbook, we know that, and

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Speaker 1: we got a big show that we're going to get to,

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Speaker 1: but there's some housekeeping that I want to clear off

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Speaker 1: early this morning. We're recording this on Monday afternoon. Early

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Speaker 1: this morning, we got the Eagles Cowboys opening night matchup.

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Speaker 1: We have the Dallas Cowboys seven point underdogs on the

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Speaker 1: road against the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The money

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Speaker 1: line number is plus two forty for the Cowboys. This

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Speaker 1: is germane to the show because the show is going

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Speaker 1: to be a lot about underdogs and pricing and some

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Speaker 1: of the trends that have been changing. And it speaks

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Speaker 1: to a lot of the work that we've talked about

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Speaker 1: a couple times on the show throughout the year, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of stuff I've been focusing on and how

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Speaker 1: you've been thinking about it too. And Evan's going to

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Speaker 1: be on to break it down for us, but before

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Speaker 1: we dig more deeply into that intro, immediately plus seven

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Speaker 1: I bet that. I bet the plus two forty. I

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Speaker 1: know you did too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's just an insane opening number. But it's

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Speaker 2: the respect that Philadelphia.

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Speaker 3: Deserves and just the season that Dallas is coming off of, right,

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Speaker 3: So it's all public perception. We talk all the time

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Speaker 3: about week one lines and Dak being disrespectful divisional game

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Speaker 3: like he is in this spot. That that's a nice number,

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Speaker 3: especially where you think about the fact that you know,

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Speaker 3: Kellen Moore did leave, like the Eagles are going to

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Speaker 3: learn a new offense, so this is week one and

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Speaker 3: Jalen hurts in a new offense. So pretty interesting that

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Speaker 3: the fact that they hung this number the way they did,

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Speaker 3: and you know, I'm looking at from the standpoint of

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Speaker 3: what you are, it's it's a big number.

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Speaker 2: Rebenting it really early. It is May.

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Speaker 3: But me and chat are taking a position because you

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Speaker 3: expect this to what go to five and a half, four.

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Speaker 2: And a half, maybe perhaps by the.

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Speaker 3: Night they kick off, So we want to take a

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Speaker 3: position here and if it goes the other way, even better,

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Speaker 3: like I love if we get to that night chat

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Speaker 3: and we get an eight eight and a half on

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Speaker 3: this number because so many people are throwing their parlays

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Speaker 3: and teasers starting their week off with the Eagles at

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Speaker 3: this number. So yeah, it's just a really fun opening number.

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Speaker 3: Great opening night. I think it's the first time the

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Speaker 3: Egles have opened the season against the Cowboys at home

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Speaker 3: since two thousand, so we're talking about twenty five years here,

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Speaker 3: So pretty pretty excited as an Eagles fan that opening night.

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Speaker 3: I'll definitely be there Thursday night, no work for Simon.

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Speaker 3: I'll be out drinking, celebrating what happened last year and

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Speaker 3: watching this game.

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Speaker 1: Look, I think that what's really interesting about this is

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Speaker 1: it's such a a indicator of recency bias. Like obviously

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Speaker 1: everyone is all hyped on the Eagles, and everyone is

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Speaker 1: looking at what happened with the Cowboys and they're forgetting

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Speaker 1: that Dak Prescott is going to be back, and that

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Speaker 1: it's not like Dak Prescott is a bad quarterback, and

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Speaker 1: it's not like this team won't be competitive, and it's

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Speaker 1: not like Micah Parsons won't be back. You know, the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys had so many injuries last year on that defensive

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Speaker 1: line at some point they were playing almost nobody, and

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Speaker 1: then Dak obviously was out for much of the year.

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Speaker 1: So this just feels like way too big of a number.

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Speaker 1: I know it's may I know we're not getting overextended

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Speaker 1: on the Cowboys as seven point underdogs on the road

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Speaker 1: in the division, but geez, geez, almighty, that is that

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Speaker 1: is a hefty, hefty price if you want to be

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Speaker 1: betting on the Eagles, or a really nice discount if

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Speaker 1: you want to bet on the Cowboys. I bet both.

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Speaker 1: You can't get it in the action app yet, but

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Speaker 1: I bet both the Cowboys plus seven and the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: on the money line at plus two forty. All right,

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Speaker 1: this all leads in perfectly to what we're going to

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Speaker 1: dive into today. And like I said, we've talked a

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Speaker 1: lot on this show the last couple of years when

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Speaker 1: we discuss every single week in this past NFL offseason,

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Speaker 1: the decline of the underdog for betters, especially in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: although across multiple sports, and this has been especially true

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Speaker 1: since the repeal of the Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act

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Speaker 1: aka PASPA in two thousand and eighteen. It's also been

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Speaker 1: a real business story, and I've mentioned this a few

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Speaker 1: times on the show. The past six to nine months,

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Speaker 1: DraftKings Fandle, the two biggest operator, was the biggest percentage

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Speaker 1: of market share amongst all online sportsbooks, have reported in

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Speaker 1: Q four and in Q one now that their earnings

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Speaker 1: were less than expected. Their revenue was less than expected

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Speaker 1: because of continued customer friendly outcomes. Last fall was an

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Speaker 1: incredible year for favorites to continue to cover, which is

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Speaker 1: bad for operators. March Madness it was all shock right,

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Speaker 1: the number one seeds all went through to the final four.

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Speaker 1: That was bad for business for the operators. We've seen

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Speaker 1: a lot of those customer friendly outcomes. What in the

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Speaker 1: devil is going on? To help us dive into the numbers,

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Speaker 1: the trends unpack how we can sort of think about this.

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Speaker 1: Our statistical navin, a man who always show his work.

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Speaker 1: Action Network Director of Researcher Media, Evan Abrams, Welcome back, Evan.

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Speaker 4: Well, what's going on? Fellas? I mean, truthfully, the only

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Speaker 4: thing I got to say before we dive into this,

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Speaker 4: the two biggest tournaments between like the NFL Regular Season

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Speaker 4: and March Madness, were just so slanted towards favorites that

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Speaker 4: this was kind of predictable that this was going to

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Speaker 4: happen at least the conversation because the things that everyone

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Speaker 4: bet on favorites were just crushing. And then Chad, you

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Speaker 4: and I have talked about futures. I feel like forever

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Speaker 4: it feels like underdogs very rarely have been coming through

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Speaker 4: when it comes to like actually winning titles. And the

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Speaker 4: date is just crazy there when you talk about that

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Speaker 4: taking like the team's under ten to one, et cetera.

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Speaker 4: So conversation should be interesting.

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Speaker 1: So listen. I've mentioned that I'm working on a book

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Speaker 1: a couple times on the show. One of the things

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Speaker 1: that I'm doing for the book is trying to figure

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Speaker 1: out how to unpack what happened last year and not

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Speaker 1: overreact to it and build something for the coming year

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Speaker 1: that I can then track on a week to week

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Speaker 1: basis and write about in the book. And a lot

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Speaker 1: of my research the past few months, which has been

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Speaker 1: really fun, has been what is the model that I

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Speaker 1: might need to build And a lot of what I've

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Speaker 1: come to the conclusion about is that there is no

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Speaker 1: superstat There is no analysis that can be done that

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Speaker 1: isn't already being done by eight thousand analysts who are

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Speaker 1: thin slicing, advanced metrics. When it comes to the NFL,

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Speaker 1: everyone's looking at success rate, everyone's looking at PEPA, everyone's

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Speaker 1: looking at explosiveness. If you really honestly like one of

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Speaker 1: the best models might be the luck rankings, knowing how

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Speaker 1: they create it and so and Simon and I talk

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Speaker 1: about that every week. But pricing has become really interesting.

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Speaker 1: We just talked about it with the Cowboys and the Eagles, right,

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys seven point dogs. That feels like an exorbitant

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Speaker 1: price to pay you want to bet on the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: So it's becoming more and more interesting. One of the

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Speaker 1: things I had asked Evan to do is to go

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Speaker 1: through some pricing models based on the research we have

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Speaker 1: available in that lab. So I know, Evan, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: sort of certainly talk about that today, but explain, like,

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Speaker 1: as a thesis for this episode, what does the death

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Speaker 1: of the underdog mean exactly?

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Speaker 4: I just think so, I mean PASPA May fourteenth to

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Speaker 4: twenty eighteen. Since that moment, I think we've seen a

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Speaker 4: little bit of a shift. And I tried to do

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Speaker 4: it in three simple bullets. So bullet one would be

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Speaker 4: widespread legalization of sports betting, beginning in late twenty eighteen

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Speaker 4: twenty nineteen, kind of changes the game a little bit,

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Speaker 4: and that leads to underdogs starting off actually performing well

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Speaker 4: early during this PASSPA era of new legalization across many

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Speaker 4: states in the US, So about two to three years,

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Speaker 4: you see an increase in ATS one percentage for certain

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Speaker 4: underdogs across you know, some of the sports, the majority

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Speaker 4: of one of them. So in the NFL, this also

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Speaker 4: coincided with huge favorites and larger spreads. At least initially

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Speaker 4: we were seeing, you know, seventeen say, a lot more

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Speaker 4: of those bigger numbers, and then what I think we're

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Speaker 4: actually seeing now and I kind of call it the

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Speaker 4: last like two and a half years or so, is

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Speaker 4: again some of those larger spreads, but favorites starting to

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Speaker 4: cover those bigger numbers. Juicier prices also tend to be vanishing,

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Speaker 4: and I think that has something to do with the

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Speaker 4: lines we're seeing out there, some of the margins between

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Speaker 4: the lines, the big things of that nature. But I

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Speaker 4: think it's happening both with single games and it's also

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Speaker 4: happening with some of the whole percentages in the futures market.

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Speaker 4: So to me, that is a one, two, three of

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Speaker 4: what we're kind of labeling like the death of the underdog,

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Speaker 4: which is a very blanket statement when you consider I

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Speaker 4: like looking at the major six sports, so you say

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Speaker 4: at least in the US when it's you know, the

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Speaker 4: four major plus the two college because I feel like

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Speaker 4: that at least from an American point of view, gets

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Speaker 4: the most act. So that's at least where I started

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Speaker 4: the experiment here. But to me, those are your pillars

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Speaker 4: kind of walking into this.

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Speaker 1: Guys, Simon, do you agree or disagree with my take

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Speaker 1: that it's begetting It's that it's getting harder and harder

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Speaker 1: to find a statistical analytical edge when creating power ratings,

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Speaker 1: and that more and more we should be leaning into price.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of ways to go about this chat.

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Speaker 2: I would say that if someone has an edge, you'd

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Speaker 2: never know. Even if I have an edge, I would

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Speaker 2: never tell you, brother, you know, I love you to death.

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Speaker 2: It's just a nature of the year. I know. And

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Speaker 2: that's just the way it is. Bro.

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Speaker 3: It's it's it's a different world where like guys, guys

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Speaker 3: have had edges for thirty forty years. You could say

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Speaker 3: they tinker with it and they're always updating it, but

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Speaker 3: they would never tell you, and they and you can,

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Speaker 3: you know, give him many drinks as you want, and

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Speaker 3: you could be like, well, this guy's full of But

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Speaker 3: then at the end of the day, this guy's a

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Speaker 3: long term winning better and clearly you know something, he's

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Speaker 3: doing something right. But I mean, just at the basis

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Speaker 3: we're getting to though, it's it does.

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Speaker 2: Feel like we have we've had.

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Speaker 3: We're in a weird run here, Chad, Like what you're

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Speaker 3: just talking about it, like these favorites. I mean, hell,

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Speaker 3: the best underdog bet of the year was a dude

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Speaker 3: named Bobby from Chicago that became the Pope. Like it's

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Speaker 3: a weird year. It's a weird year. So you know,

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Speaker 3: it's back to back years of this of like you know,

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Speaker 3: we love long shots, we love these.

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Speaker 2: You didn't see it coming.

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Speaker 3: And you know, the one year I feel like we

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Speaker 3: really had a chance at that was that Bengals run

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Speaker 3: right with Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 2: Like Evan kept telling us like one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: to one.

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Speaker 3: I knew some guys sitting on those tickets that would

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Speaker 3: have really shocked the system, but it didn't happen. Right,

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Speaker 3: It was like Matt Stafford, the Rams team they end

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Speaker 3: up they end up winning it, and you know, like

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Speaker 3: every year comes on here he talks about these favorites

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Speaker 3: in the NFL, like Chad's making this bet every year,

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Speaker 3: you know, the top twenty or top you know, twenty

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Speaker 3: five to one teams and below, and Chad's been winning

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Speaker 3: on it because it's been pretty chalking the NFL. So

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Speaker 3: evan diamond in numbers here. I'm really interested here all

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Speaker 3: of it because we know because we're better's chat.

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Speaker 2: So we've lost the money.

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Speaker 3: So we're basically about the get federal medicine, about what

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Speaker 3: we need to adjust and what it's been like the

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Speaker 3: last couple of years here in all the major sports.

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Speaker 1: Right, So I haven't layout. You know we've got and

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Speaker 1: you and I discussed this. This was core to some

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Speaker 1: of the investigation that I asked you to start thinking

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Speaker 1: about a couple of months ago. Layout and there's three

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Speaker 1: sort of basic examples, is the best way to describe it.

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Speaker 1: Of you immediately recognize where you think the market will

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Speaker 1: be off, and those are the ones that you attack.

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Speaker 1: These archetypes of underdogs, mispriced circumstances lead you to immediately

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Speaker 1: want to bet those teams that have been causing problems

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Speaker 1: the last couple of years. Give us the three best examples.

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Speaker 1: Start with number one.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so system one is simply just bad underdogs off

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Speaker 4: of a bad loss. And I think when going through

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Speaker 4: all three of these, these are just normal situations that

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Speaker 4: most betters historically have just kind of looked for. Do

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Speaker 4: they blindly bet them? Of course not, but usually over

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Speaker 4: time they end up turning an ROI. And historically yes,

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Speaker 4: but recently no. So let me start here. Bad dogs

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Speaker 4: off of a bad loss. So this is team with

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Speaker 4: a win percentage under forty percent coming off a loss

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Speaker 4: of twenty plus points. Pretty simple. So since two thousand

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Speaker 4: and three, and that is we're going to use that

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Speaker 4: number that year a lot. That is the bet Labs

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Speaker 4: database and in its entirety, so since two thousand and three,

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Speaker 4: betting those spots has a positive ROI of just under

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Speaker 4: seven percent blanket, but last two seasons twenty one, twenty

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Speaker 4: four and one ats negative ten point three percent ROI.

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Speaker 4: It is the worst two year stretch that we've tracked

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Speaker 4: in that span, So works long term, hasn't worked recently.

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Speaker 4: So let me just keep rolling here because I'll do

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Speaker 4: two more and then we can kind of react. I

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Speaker 4: don't want to I don't you want to react, you

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Speaker 4: want to go?

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Speaker 1: I got I don't think I get home my time. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's fucking insane, because that's like, that is the a

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Speaker 1: one example that anybody who has done this for any

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Speaker 1: length of time looks at. Give me the bad team

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Speaker 1: coming off a bad loss. It's gonna be a great

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Speaker 1: discount on the.

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Speaker 2: Free field goal price. Yeah, get a free three points.

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Speaker 1: Yes, like that has been. That has been a money

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Speaker 1: maker to Evan's point seven percent over the past twenty

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Speaker 1: plus seasons, but negative ten percent ROI the past two years. Simon,

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Speaker 1: did you realize it was that steep of a drop off?

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Speaker 2: I knew just because early in the year.

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Speaker 3: I remember at one point chat we were like one

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Speaker 3: to twenty five betting dogs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I remember going through it in the show, right.

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Speaker 3: And you went through and I did as well, and

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Speaker 3: like looking at the dogs we were taking. That really

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Speaker 3: honestly saved me a ton of money going forward last

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Speaker 3: season because it wasn't like there was a bunch of laves,

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Speaker 3: even the Panthers. Eventually we swore them off and we

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Speaker 3: had a nice break where it was like, I don't

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Speaker 3: care they're giving us four points here that they shouldn't

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Speaker 3: be given us that.

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Speaker 2: You know, the Panthers are just getting that bump.

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Speaker 3: And what Evan Year is talking about is really alarming

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Speaker 3: because it just factors into these last two seasons how

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Speaker 3: bad the quarterback play has been. To me, all these

338
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Speaker 3: really bad teams, and I think that's a lot what

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Speaker 3: I dove into this season offseason is just the really

340
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Speaker 3: poor quarterback play and the shortened fields and how much

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Speaker 3: it really is that simple when you dive into it,

342
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Speaker 3: how big of the key it is where these teams

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Speaker 3: have confidence in their quarterback to go forward off fourth

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Speaker 3: and two, fourth and three, and there's other teams who

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Speaker 3: would just simply pun it on fourth and three four

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Speaker 3: with them too. So what Evan here is really making

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Speaker 3: that state out where it's like, you know, some of

348
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Speaker 3: these teams usually coming off with bad loss, the team

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Speaker 3: rallies the next game. And I feel like that's what

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Speaker 3: Evan's talk about historical data the last two years. I mean,

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Speaker 3: these teams just lay down and die. Like that's the

352
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Speaker 3: craziest part. It's like, you're getting these free points and

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Speaker 3: it's not mattering, and the books. It feels like what

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Speaker 3: Evan's saying here is the books are getting caught laying

355
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Speaker 3: these really bad numbers and the public's taking advantage of it.

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Speaker 1: Is two years enough of a sample size?

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Speaker 4: Oh, I don't think so. I mean, I think we've

358
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Speaker 4: built these systems, models, like different things that trigger points,

359
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Speaker 4: let's call them for you, Chad, just to kind of

360
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Speaker 4: like look at to start the season. I think we're

361
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Speaker 4: in wait and see mode. Like if this system, which

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Speaker 4: is seven percent, starts off you know two to eight,

363
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Speaker 4: you know, I think we might have an understanding of

364
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Speaker 4: something coming up. But I think this is a very

365
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Speaker 4: critical year to kind of seeing what these rule changes

366
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Speaker 4: and even some of these bad quarterback player, which I

367
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Speaker 4: think Simon nailed it, what that impact has. I think

368
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Speaker 4: one other thing that's important here. These are all based

369
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Speaker 4: off the closing lines. So like in this type of system,

370
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Speaker 4: you're talking about a bad dog off of bad loss,

371
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Speaker 4: Like you're assuming that line's going to close higher than

372
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Speaker 4: it opened because everyone's gonna want the other team. So

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Speaker 4: you know, the these teams losing in that sense where

374
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Speaker 4: we're talking about the closing line, which is probably a

375
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Speaker 4: better line, is also pretty shocking to me to be

376
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Speaker 4: honest and chat.

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Speaker 3: It feels like Evan Year is talking about how it's

378
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Speaker 3: it's not enough data yet, but it's also he's telling

379
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Speaker 3: people that you just can't keep doing the same old way.

380
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 3: There is there could be something happening here that you

381
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 3: need to pay attention to, and that he's diving on

382
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Speaker 3: numbers here, and that's that's what I find so interested

383
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Speaker 3: about it, where it's like, you know, there's always times

384
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Speaker 3: too if I have a number on a dog that

385
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Speaker 3: I like and the luck rankings back it up because

386
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Speaker 3: it's a team that's been unlucky catching a big number,

387
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Speaker 3: we always talk chat I blindly bet those numbers. Now

388
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Speaker 3: I am going to take a second and think about

389
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Speaker 3: the quarterback matchup, the coaching style, little things that I

390
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Speaker 3: wouldn't ever when I'm in a certain situation where I'd.

391
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Speaker 2: Just blindly bet a big dog.

392
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Speaker 3: So what Evan saying here, I am going to take

393
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Speaker 3: into account because that is pretty alarming data that it's

394
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:14,199
Speaker 3: changed that much, and it's really coinciding with a lot

395
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Speaker 3: of these rule changes the NFL has been doing these

396
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Speaker 3: last couple of seasons.

397
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Speaker 4: All Right, I having number two, Okay, so this is

398
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 4: fading the bounce back bad team versus good team who

399
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 4: is off of a big loss. So again, team with

400
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,919
Speaker 4: a win percentage under forty percent playing a team with

401
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 4: a sixty percent win percentage coming off a loss of

402
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 4: two touchdowns or more. So, basically you're fading the inevitable

403
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,359
Speaker 4: bounce back, which most people would normally try to buy into.

404
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 4: So since two thousand and three, betting these spots positive

405
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 4: ROI have just over six percent, so relatively similar to

406
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Speaker 4: the one we just talked about, which was about seven percent.

407
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 4: Now last four seasons in this spot twenty and twenty

408
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 4: five against the spread a negative fourteen point seven ROI

409
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 4: also the worst stretch in the last twenty two to

410
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 4: twenty three years. So again kind of talking about a

411
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 4: very similar scenario where I mean that bad team which

412
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Speaker 4: you would look at probably getting a larger number on

413
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Speaker 4: the close versus the open, still not covering that number

414
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 4: nearly at all last four seasons, even bigger sample, So

415
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Speaker 4: you're kind of eating into that Paspa era as well.

416
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fascinating because that's another one that has almost

417
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 1: been an auto play for years, right, Like you immediately

418
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Speaker 1: like identify that because we think we're smarter than the

419
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Speaker 1: average joe. We would bet that because the Joe is

420
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Speaker 1: going to come in and bet the favorite no matter what.

421
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 1: And now all of a sudden, and it's not just

422
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:50,159
Speaker 1: two years, four years, that's like almost insidious. You know,

423
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Speaker 1: if you're not paying enough attention, you keep doing it

424
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Speaker 1: not really realizing that it's been eating away over a

425
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Speaker 1: longer period of time.

426
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Speaker 2: Time.

427
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 1: That's that's a scary one.

428
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Speaker 4: I think we're hitting a curve here, Like it's almost

429
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 4: like we're trying to figure out if these are going

430
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 4: to extend or if there's going to be some sort

431
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Speaker 4: of like buy back in the market to the meme

432
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Speaker 4: where we kind of go back to what we were.

433
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Speaker 4: I don't know if that's going to happen.

434
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Speaker 2: So Simon, Evan's making me want to hibernate.

435
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 3: I want to disappear now for like three years, and

436
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 3: I'll come back and just time the market right and

437
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 3: just be rolling in all these dogs, because like Evan

438
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:26,880
Speaker 3: saying here, it's going to hit a breaking point right

439
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,199
Speaker 3: the books they got the same numbers, they have the

440
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 3: same data. They will eventually just their models were adjust

441
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 3: But I keep telling Chad, we're in a weird time

442
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 3: period where these this switch up is happening with the

443
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,199
Speaker 3: favorites and we're breaking into AI models, which is a

444
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 3: whole other conversation, but we're in a really weird period

445
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,679
Speaker 3: here of like, Okay, favorites are doing really well, the

446
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 3: public is, you know, obviously doing really well.

447
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 2: The books are trying to go against it.

448
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 3: But the books are spending an absurd amount of money

449
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 3: right now trying to get ahead of AI models, especially

450
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 3: in the sports betting world. So it's very it's a

451
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 3: very unique time period. It's where a lot of movie

452
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 3: parts are happening. Evan here is just making me even

453
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 3: doubt my model even more because it's like what Evan's

454
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 3: saying here is like I keep thinking I'm getting free

455
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 3: points and I'm not. They're kind of suckering us in.

456
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,400
Speaker 3: And it's been that way the last couple of years.

457
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 3: And I definitely have not taken position on certain spots,

458
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 3: right bounce back spots quote unquote, but there are certain

459
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,360
Speaker 3: teams that it's like, Okay, if Lamar has a bad

460
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 3: loss and he's in a bounce back spot and you're

461
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 3: getting the rapportunity of him as a dog, those are like, Okay,

462
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 3: that's a smash spot.

463
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 2: That's a spot you really want to lean into, despite

464
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 2: if your numbers are against it.

465
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 3: You want to do what Evan's talking about here, which

466
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 3: is like you throw all the data out and you

467
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 3: just historical data tells you good quarterback, good team, after

468
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 3: a bad loss, you expect them to bounce back. Bad

469
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:48,880
Speaker 3: quarterback on a bad team. Evan's telling you they don't.

470
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 3: They're not bouncing back right now. So that's seventhing. I

471
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 3: don't have to check on me and Chad during the

472
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 3: regular season. Just keep in the back of our mind

473
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 3: where it's like, you can't just blindly bet these bad quarterbacks.

474
00:23:58,320 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 2: Man, they're just not doing it.

475
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 3: The whatever is going on in college and the next

476
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 3: step to the NFL is not translating like it was

477
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 3: in the twenty tens.

478
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: Clearly, I feel like there's been a beacon that has

479
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,640
Speaker 1: been buried in the dirt, and somehow we've been missing

480
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 1: it and playing by the old rules, and it's slowly,

481
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 1: slowly been changing. And last year, maybe all three of them,

482
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,719
Speaker 1: including the next one Evan is going to talk about,

483
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 1: of these sort of classic underdog play spots all converged

484
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 1: to conspire against us. That's made us unpack everything in

485
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 1: an entirely different way, whereas like maybe there's been spots

486
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 1: where one or two of them, but not in a

487
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 1: consecutive week. So it made us keep thinking. And last

488
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 1: year it just felt like every single week, and it's

489
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 1: made it look at these now, okay, now this.

490
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 3: Is good for you, This is good for us in

491
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 3: a lot of ways, shock because it does make you

492
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 3: look yourself and your models and all the different things

493
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,360
Speaker 3: in a different perspective. And like, I'll never forget that

494
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 3: year the Egos win that Superol with Doug Peterson and

495
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 3: the RPOs that really messed with my model with a

496
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 3: lot of offenses that were just super simple and basic.

497
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 2: But the RPBO was.

498
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 3: Really working really well, and they brought into the league

499
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 3: and the same thing with a couple of teams in

500
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 3: that year start going for it more often our fourth down.

501
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 3: So it's like, you know, you're always adjusting. What we're

502
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 3: talking about here is like I don't want to overadjust,

503
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 3: Like you're saying, we don't want to overadjust because of

504
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 3: these last couple years in these anomalies, But like you're saying,

505
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 3: we need to really take into account here that these

506
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 3: dogs just ain't hitting like they used to, and there's

507
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 3: there's a bigger point here that we need to dive

508
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 3: into that we can't just say, well, it'll come back around.

509
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 2: It's like, well maybe it won't. This could be a

510
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 2: big change in the NFL, and we need to adjust to it.

511
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm really glad we're doing this because it's

512
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:41,679
Speaker 3: it's something I've already dived.

513
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 2: Into a little bit. But hearing these raw numbers from Evan,

514
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 2: it's it's pretty alarming.

515
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 1: The clarity is is pretty astonishing. All right, Evan's number three.

516
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely the underdog. I feel like almost is just

517
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 4: a tale of caution at the moment. But yeah, here's

518
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 4: system three. So and this is almost as much of

519
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 4: a staple as the first one. It's basically just betting

520
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 4: good teams off of huge losses. So we just talked

521
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,199
Speaker 4: about the bad team and good team. Forget all that.

522
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 4: This is just team with win percentage over sixty percent

523
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 4: coming off a loss of twenty plus points, which is

524
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 4: basically doesn't happen a ton. But this is, you know,

525
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 4: the bounce back spot, the classic. So since two thousand

526
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 4: and three, betting these spots has a positive Hawaii of

527
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 4: just under sixteen percent, and since twenty twenty it is

528
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 4: thirteen and sixteen ats and it was oo and four

529
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,919
Speaker 4: ats last season, So a literal reversal of fortune. And

530
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 4: I think this is literally the worst teams in the

531
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 4: NFL basically on the other side of this potentially, and

532
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 4: you wanting to back them, and I think you're kind

533
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,439
Speaker 4: of hitting a bit of a brick wall. But the

534
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 4: thirteen and sixteen since twenty twenty, when you have a

535
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 4: sixteen percent ROI since two thousand and three, and that's

536
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 4: sixteen percent still now, including that thirteen and sixteen just

537
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,439
Speaker 4: to show how great it was beforehand. It's just a

538
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:53,719
Speaker 4: change of times. It's crazy.

539
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 1: That is a crazy number. Like the sample size obviously

540
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 1: isn't that big. Yeah, twenty nine games just not that big.

541
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 1: It's not a big enough number to make you want

542
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: to change how you think about these things philosophically. But

543
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:13,239
Speaker 1: oh and four last year, like Simon, I guarantee we

544
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,880
Speaker 1: may we went oh and four on those bets, right,

545
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 1: like we can go back and look, but like I

546
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 1: feel like we are seeing all of the losses that

547
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: we had last year just from these three systems that

548
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 1: Evan is talking about.

549
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 2: Definitely Carolina loss.

550
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 3: But I told you, like, I went back through and

551
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 3: I still can't leave how we avoided Tennessee. It feels

552
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 3: like a couple of those two is the Tennessee games.

553
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's man. That's astonishing though.

554
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:43,360
Speaker 3: I mean, is that the first time, Evan you could

555
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 3: find the historical data that there was a year that

556
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 3: it just simply went.

557
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 2: Oh four or oh five.

558
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: I could check, but there's just no chance you had

559
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 4: that type of percentage year to year and you would

560
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 4: have no ATS wins. So I'm pretty sure it is

561
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 4: the first lease in that spot. I think the scary

562
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 4: thing is if I took that sixty percent, so teams

563
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 4: with a win percentage over sixty percent, and instead of

564
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:05,880
Speaker 4: a twenty point loss, I took it down to fourteen,

565
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 4: or I took it to nine, which was like more

566
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 4: than one possession. I think you'd see similar data in

567
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,239
Speaker 4: terms of just the evening out of the numbers and

568
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 4: it not being so easy to back those teams. So

569
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 4: I just think there's more into the handicap than maybe

570
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 4: there was a little while ago. I think there's just

571
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,640
Speaker 4: a lot going on, and also a lot more money

572
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 4: in the market. I think legalization has brought in a

573
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 4: tons of new types of betters that I think might

574
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 4: be adjusting this a little bit. That's at least my opinion.

575
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 1: There's a lot more money in the market. How is

576
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 1: pricing impacting all of this? Are bookmakers getting smarter at

577
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: pricing these things and we're not adjusting?

578
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I wrote down these three nuggets pillars

579
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 4: however you want to call them. But I think it's

580
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 4: more of a dynamic pricing, like the odds are getting

581
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 4: worse quicker, and I think the adjustment on players is

582
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 4: already kind of being baked in, Like we've seen some

583
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 4: crazy stuff in the NBA where a guy gets ruled

584
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 4: out and like the other players props aren't moving like

585
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 4: they used to, because that's something that used to be

586
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 4: a bit of an edge, which is, you know, okay,

587
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 4: we're making the assumption on a so let's get ahead

588
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 4: of b And that's also even terms of like news,

589
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 4: betting is kind of being already baked in as they're

590
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 4: making the assumptions that we are. So and I also

591
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 4: think a little bit of the a lot of these

592
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 4: books aren't giving you unders, they're not giving you nose,

593
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 4: which is kind of bringing about like the exchanges and

594
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 4: the different companies that are kind of giving you both

595
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 4: options that are getting more popular. But I think that's

596
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 4: part of the problem is you know, you're betting into

597
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 4: minus one, twenty two's, one twenty fives, one twenty eight's

598
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 4: and that just never was the case.

599
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 1: What about on NFL spreads? When I think about pricing,

600
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 1: I'm not just thinking about, you know, what's the jew soe.

601
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about is it at six and a half?

602
00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 1: Is it at seven? Is it at seven and a half?

603
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 1: Do we think that they are just getting better at

604
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: creating lines that are harder to bet into?

605
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 4: I think probably. So. I mean, I think, you know,

606
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 4: the NFL is an interesting beast just because of the

607
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 4: amount of popularity and attention and money that goes into

608
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 4: it versus all the other sports. So I don't know

609
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 4: if it's necessarily like, you know, would you have gotten

610
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 4: seven and a half or eight a little while ago,

611
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 4: while now maybe it's you know, seven or six and

612
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 4: a half.

613
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 2: I don't know.

614
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 4: I'm curious Simon's opinion here because I feel like when

615
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 4: we bet into this every week, the favorites still get

616
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 4: all the money. The favorites still get the late action.

617
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 4: Except now the favorites are covering. When we used to

618
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 4: feel like the smart guys and the dog used to

619
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 4: get the back door or get the cover in those situations,

620
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 4: It's just not happening anymore.

621
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've definitely have learned, especially since the legalization, not

622
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 3: to let lines scare me off that to me are

623
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 3: so stupid, don't make any sense. I just have to

624
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 3: live and die and take it. And the Biggs ones

625
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 3: that jumped out to me will always be that at

626
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 3: Washington Commander's line against Detroit.

627
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 2: That line touched ten in that playoff game.

628
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 3: And this is with Detroit with all those injuries to

629
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 3: their defense, and that stinks. Where I was going to

630
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 3: just hammer that number NonStop. I was like, this is

631
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 3: a really bad number. But I got scared off because

632
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 3: of the year we were just coming off with all

633
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 3: the favorites and how the books kept putting these bad lines.

634
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 3: And that was one of those games where I luckily

635
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 3: just lean into my model and really trust it. And

636
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 3: I think even by Thursday show, you could hear my

637
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 3: confidence on this show really build. But I didn't have

638
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 3: that Sunday night Monday, like I really didn't where It's like,

639
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 3: what am I missing here?

640
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 2: Why is this ten?

641
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 3: How are the Commander's ten points worse than this Detroit

642
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 3: team that all those injuries to their defense, And you know,

643
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 3: that was one of those situations where normal year dogs

644
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 3: are hitting well. For me, that would have been a

645
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 3: big six figure game, Like I really would have gone

646
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 3: to heavy on that game, knowing my model backs it up.

647
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 3: The old timers I talked to are telling me this

648
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 3: is a great spot for this Washington team, like it

649
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 3: all lined up with it and the data lined up.

650
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 3: But just because you're coming off of like that's been

651
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 3: so interesting to me that the books, you know, to me,

652
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 3: they look like they're laying really really interesting numbers and

653
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 3: strong numbers where the public don't even think that way

654
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 3: right their minded. If they see seven and a half,

655
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 3: they just tease it. They don't care that it's seven

656
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 3: and a half. Where me and Chatty the seven a

657
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 3: half in our eyes light up. We're getting a hook

658
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 3: on a dog we like and a really good number.

659
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 3: And of course we got slaughterered on those numbers, like

660
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 3: we got killed on taking those good numbers that we

661
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 3: think are good. But like we're talking about here, the

662
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 3: books they're not going to lose forever. Like that's why

663
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: I keep especially friends I have in my regular life,

664
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 3: regular people best sure they've ever had, Some guys over

665
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 3: sixty percent, some guys I know seventy percent, especially on

666
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 3: their pickpools, like best year they ever had, taking these favorites,

667
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 3: and I tell them, oh, get out, retire, just walk away,

668
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 3: like this is it just is not gonna happen again.

669
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 2: They're like, well, how do you know?

670
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 3: And it's just what Evan's talking here with historical data

671
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 3: that we've never seen it before.

672
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, we could get caught here, and it could

673
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 2: because of the rule changes.

674
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 3: But it is interesting when you're talking about we keep

675
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 3: having these games and Evan's talking about here where it's like,

676
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 3: how do I not feel like we're getting free points

677
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 3: here and how do we not take it? Especially when

678
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 3: you have a model back in it where it's like

679
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 3: this is off by four or five points.

680
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 2: I mean. Another way that jumps out to.

681
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 3: Me is that the championship of the College football Finals,

682
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 3: you know, Notre Dame should have been.

683
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 2: A big underdog. What was it, Evan? Was it nine

684
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 2: and a half?

685
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: Like that Some of the smartest guys I know bet

686
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 3: for a living on college football, had that at three

687
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 3: and a half. Four A fluky touchdown happened at the

688
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 3: end of the game. I think it landed on ten

689
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 3: or something like. It didn't cover the number whatever it is.

690
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 3: Notre Dame didn't cover. These guys do a lot of

691
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 3: Joe public like assholes, right, that was an easy bet,

692
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 3: taking the superior.

693
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: Team against the Notre Dame team that shouldn't have even

694
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 2: been in that.

695
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 3: Game where you got They don't realize how lucky they got. Now,

696
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 3: models historically, long term will always be right in those

697
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 3: type of spots. So it's across all sports where it's

698
00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 3: like you're getting a ton of extra value on these dogs,

699
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 3: and these bounces keep going to public weight the end

700
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 3: of these games, and it's we're trying to put We're like,

701
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 3: we're breaking it all down here today and we're trying

702
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 3: to put numbers on it. There's so many of these

703
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 3: games where it's just not going our way. And I chat,

704
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 3: I talked to you about our regular season. It's like,

705
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 3: how many weeks do we have? Two and three? I

706
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 3: mean we were two and one and how many weeks

707
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 3: heading into that Sunday night show And we end the

708
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 3: week two and three, so it's like, are we terrible

709
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,399
Speaker 3: at this? Should I retire? Do I just simply suck

710
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 3: at sports betting? Or do I need to adjust my

711
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 3: models and realize some of those games too are just

712
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 3: bad bounces.

713
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 2: So it's hard not to overadjust.

714
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,919
Speaker 3: But at the same time, it's like, man, these last

715
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 3: couple of years with these favorites having like you're talking

716
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 3: about here, Man, it's it's spooking the shit out of me,

717
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 3: it really is. Or it's like Week one and two,

718
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 3: I got no problem of betting these dogs, Like that's

719
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 3: historically is always be good for us. Even last year,

720
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 3: the year the Favorites, it was still good for us.

721
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 3: But after that, man, shit favorites in the public chat?

722
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 3: Are we are we switching up? Is this are we

723
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:56,439
Speaker 3: going to live our name the Favorites? Is this about

724
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 3: to be the new show? Well, that's that's.

725
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: What I mean, Like the the numbers. Every single time

726
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 1: I step away from the show, or like and I'm

727
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 1: just in my head thinking about how this should go,

728
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 1: or looking at some of the bet Labs data, or

729
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 1: building new models that are just based on when to bet,

730
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 1: how lines move, those kinds of things. I start to

731
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 1: feel good about where we are going to go next season.

732
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 1: And then by the way, I'm seeing all of this

733
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 1: new stuff that Evan is laying out for the first

734
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 1: time right now as we're talking about it. So the

735
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:45,320
Speaker 1: fact that there has been a slow decline that last

736
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: year popped, but we had not really recognized for some

737
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 1: of our very safe, consistent plays that have gone against

738
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 1: the public for years. That's alarming and that scares me

739
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,320
Speaker 1: about everything that I've been thinking about building for the

740
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 1: past three months. So yeah, I'm with you. I'm kind

741
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 1: of freaking out right now, and I might have to

742
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 1: go back to square one at this point. That's how

743
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 1: I feel about it.

744
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 4: The only thing I'll say is the only thing I'll

745
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 4: say is this, I think the most glaring stat So

746
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:25,240
Speaker 4: we talk about ATS a lot just because that's the contest,

747
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,760
Speaker 4: that's the show, like, that's kind of how this was built.

748
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 4: But I think this is the one that kind of

749
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,760
Speaker 4: got me a little bit. So Moneyline regular season favorites

750
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:36,919
Speaker 4: were positive from an ROI perspective in twenty twenty three

751
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 4: and twenty twenty four, and that was actually the first

752
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 4: time we had ever seen that happen. In back to

753
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 4: back years. I went back to about two thousand in

754
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 4: terms of I went I looked even further in terms

755
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 4: of data. So the fact that and moneyline favorites take

756
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 4: so much to become positive because of you know, one

757
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 4: loss takes you back a lot in terms of the

758
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 4: big So to me, back to back years of positivity

759
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 4: on the moneyline, ROI perspective and favorites in the NFL,

760
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 4: that is a bit of a turn for me because

761
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 4: I usually see, Okay, a favorite covers here, a favorite

762
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 4: covers there. But for that juice to turn positive was

763
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,320
Speaker 4: a little alarming to me. I like to bet underdogs

764
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 4: on the money line, and it was one of the

765
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 4: worst years you could ever think of for that feeling great?

766
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,439
Speaker 1: That got the Cowboys at plus seven on the money

767
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 1: line a plus two four.

768
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,879
Speaker 4: Well, it hurts, is gonna you know, Tush push first drive.

769
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 4: We're gonna all feel great. It's gonna be fair, that's

770
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 4: all right.

771
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:33,240
Speaker 1: The back door, which we love game planning for, feels

772
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 1: like it's been closing. What do the numbers tell us?

773
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, So underdogs trailing by ten plus points at any

774
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 4: point of the game covered at a twenty one percent

775
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:48,760
Speaker 4: rate last season, The year prior it was twenty percent,

776
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 4: so pretty consistent. That was the first time in over

777
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 4: a decade we saw back to back years though, of

778
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,760
Speaker 4: that low of a percentage. So in terms of where

779
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:01,359
Speaker 4: we're used to, a team falls beyond, like we've seen

780
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 4: in the NBA what feels like a million times this

781
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 4: postseason and ends up coming back and either wins the

782
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 4: game or covers the game or some crazy statistic just

783
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 4: isn't happening in the NFL to the degree I think

784
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 4: we're used to.

785
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:12,839
Speaker 2: Now.

786
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 4: It's probably the difference of about five percent four percent,

787
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 4: depending on the average per season overall year to year,

788
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 4: But when you talk about the last two years and

789
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 4: the lack of comebacks, I think it's part of this

790
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 4: story because I think that's what we're used to. We're

791
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 4: used to those numbers being inflated and getting more inflated

792
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 4: as the week goes by, and then a majority of

793
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 4: the time or a decent percentage of the time them

794
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 4: coming through the back door and coming into the winning

795
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 4: percentage of underdogs at the end of the season, And

796
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 4: at twenty percent, you're just not seeing that. So I

797
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 4: think it's a part of the story.

798
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 1: Well, look, Simon, you just said something that is either

799
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 1: hope or false hope, which is the books don't lose,

800
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 1: they always make money, right, And so even like what

801
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 1: we're talking about with DraftKings and FanDuel and their earnings

802
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 1: calls and revenue reporting and those kinds of things and

803
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 1: changing projections and outlooks, like, is this a false hope

804
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 1: that we're hanging our hat on that it's going to

805
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,839
Speaker 1: turn back around or is everybody going to have to recalibrate?

806
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 3: Oh Man, Like Kevin said, this is a defining season

807
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 3: in many ways, but I feel like it's.

808
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 2: Defining decade in many ways. Right, this is going to

809
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 2: be a slow burn for me.

810
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 3: And you know, like I joke, we all a time, Chad,

811
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 3: this isn't a job that I know guys.

812
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 2: Most guys that do this job eventually get burned out.

813
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 3: They find something else and they go down a different

814
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 3: path because sports betting is so hard and you have

815
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 3: to consistently be tinkering and update your model and you

816
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 3: can't really get lazy and stuck in your ways like

817
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 3: you're talking on especially here, and you know, it's it's

818
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:02,279
Speaker 3: not as simple as we simply just bet the dog,

819
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 3: especially in those spots but our hardest job chat is

820
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 3: we have to pick five games every week, So one

821
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 3: or two of those games we're gonna bet it. Because

822
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 3: we love the number. The models back that we love

823
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 3: the spot. We have to start really.

824
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 2: Challenging ourselves that is this actually a good spot? Is

825
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 2: this what we want to be doing?

826
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 3: Where Evan's giving us these numbers here, that's telling you

827
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 3: that you know, it's it's kind of a favorites world

828
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 3: and because of these rule changes, why wouldn't the league

829
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:27,240
Speaker 3: want to bet.

830
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 2: Infit the offenses?

831
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:29,799
Speaker 3: And that that kind of mean to me is what's

832
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 3: jumping out here where It's like Evan's telling you, if

833
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 3: you get a ten point lead, it's really tough for

834
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 3: these teams to catch up because the offense to these

835
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,439
Speaker 3: other teams are just so dynamic now, where like, even

836
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 3: if we do get that back door score, who's to

837
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 3: say that team's not going to get down there on

838
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 3: our short field and score their own field goal or

839
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 3: touchdown and once again we're not covering.

840
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a show.

841
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 3: I'm definitely gonna be listening back to to get more

842
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 3: of these numbers from Evan because it's it's a good

843
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 3: reminder too to play during the season to ourselves because

844
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:57,720
Speaker 3: it's it's changed.

845
00:40:57,800 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 2: Jad.

846
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:00,320
Speaker 3: We always joke we used to force our halves to

847
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 3: put one favorite in. We now might have to flip

848
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 3: and force ourselves to put maybe two dogs and try

849
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 3: to go three favorites or something. But like you said,

850
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 3: I don't want to overadjust yet. But I did make

851
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 3: big adjustments on into the playoffs, and people saw it

852
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 3: like I was taking more favorites in the playoffs and

853
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 3: I had to really be pushed to want to take

854
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,439
Speaker 3: a dog. I mean, hell, I took both chalk home

855
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 3: favorites in the AFC Championship game, and I heard a

856
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 3: lot of shit that week. It's like, you think it's

857
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 3: just gonna be that easy, egos and the Chiefs, and

858
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 3: that's the way it's been for the public people. It's

859
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 3: really been that easy. So yeah, hearing these numbers get

860
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 3: broken down, you know, my fear is Chad that I

861
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:41,879
Speaker 3: overadjust and like Evan just said, it coming back around

862
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 3: this season me and you miss that golden whale, Like

863
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:46,240
Speaker 3: that's what I don't.

864
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,399
Speaker 2: Want to miss here where I don't think we will.

865
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 3: I think if we see dogs doing really well, especially

866
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 3: midway through the season, in week twelve and eleven, you know,

867
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 3: we'll say, Okay, let's go back to what we were

868
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 3: doing that was so good for us the previous years.

869
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 3: Where last year, I remember in week twelve and eleven,

870
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 3: I mean you were look at each other being.

871
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 2: Like, should we adjust? I hate taking favorites? What are

872
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 2: we supposed to do here?

873
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 3: And all of a sudden, I think, Evan, we had

874
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 3: a run there of five six straight weeks of favorites

875
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 3: covering in the middle of the season, which just not happened.

876
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 3: Because that's why I keep trying to talk about the

877
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 3: sports books. They the NFL is their baby, this is

878
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 3: their most important sport. The money that comes in on

879
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 3: this sport isn't It's out of this world compared to

880
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 3: other sports, right, this is the driver of the marketell

881
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 3: I go to the sports book all the time in

882
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 3: my off season. The difference between the NFL season and

883
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 3: others and the other seasons is palpable.

884
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:41,400
Speaker 2: So, yeah, Chad, this is I don't want to overadjust.

885
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:43,360
Speaker 3: But I'm telling you, the more I talk to bookmakers,

886
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 3: it feels like they're feeling confident, they're not over worried

887
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 3: about it. Maybe we should do the same but it's

888
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 3: not in my nature not to be worried and not

889
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 3: to freak out about it.

890
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: My feeling on anxiety generally is it is the most

891
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:03,880
Speaker 1: powerful tool to improve, honestly, because if you use it properly,

892
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 1: then you're going to do the work you need to

893
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 1: do to get yourself prepared and put yourself in a

894
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 1: better position to succeed. If you use it negatively and

895
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 1: it keep you up at night, it just paralyzes you

896
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 1: and shuts you down and makes you not be able

897
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 1: to function. It's terrible. But I actually love the power

898
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 1: of anxiety in this particular context when it comes to

899
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 1: work and things that you can control, because it will

900
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 1: fuel us to make sure that we're not doing the

901
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 1: wrong things, whatever we think that will be when we

902
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:45,439
Speaker 1: get into the regular season. Evan, we've just talked about

903
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: a bunch of different areas where we have historically focused.

904
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 1: Can you give us some examples where other sort of

905
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 1: conventional gambling wisdom is now losing better's money.

906
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 4: So I think a classic to anytime longtime NFL gambler

907
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 4: is betting bad teams off a loss, which we kind

908
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:09,840
Speaker 4: of already talked about a little bit. But this is

909
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,359
Speaker 4: just is a little more simple. So I looked at

910
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 4: all teams that met this betting criteria. Teams with a

911
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 4: losing record, who are underdogs who are just coming off

912
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 4: a loss in general, classic ugly dog situation. If you

913
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 4: bet every team in that situation last two seasons, you'd

914
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 4: have a negative ROI of almost nine percent two seasons.

915
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 4: Nine percent, pretty damn bad. That is the worst two

916
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 4: year stretch in our bet Labs database again since two

917
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 4: thousand and three numbers. So again pretty simple here, that

918
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 4: is teams with a losing record, underdogs off a loss,

919
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,239
Speaker 4: spread doesn't matter. Those are just the three criterias. You'd

920
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 4: be down almost nine percent. And if you go even

921
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 4: deeper there so really ugly dogs six plus point dogs,

922
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 4: so instead of just underdogs, you're looking at dogs of

923
00:44:55,760 --> 00:45:00,400
Speaker 4: six points or more. It honestly gets even worse. And

924
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 4: the thing is you want to look at least I did.

925
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:06,360
Speaker 4: I looked at moneyline results, So between twenty thirteen and

926
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 4: twenty eighteen, which is basically pre paspa minus six point

927
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 4: one percent ROI twenty two point nine percent straight up.

928
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 4: So that is twenty thirteen to twenty eighteen, I'll say

929
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:21,839
Speaker 4: that again minus six point one percent ROI twenty three

930
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 4: percent straight up. Since twenty nineteen, it is minus eighteen

931
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:30,879
Speaker 4: percent ROI and eighteen percent straight up. So that is

932
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 4: about three times worse on the ROI and about five

933
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:38,839
Speaker 4: percent less on the straight up win percentage. And we're

934
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 4: just talking about blanketed here, big underdogs off a loss,

935
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 4: bad team, And that is pretty much what a lot

936
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 4: of us tend to at least look at early week

937
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:53,360
Speaker 4: to kind of filter flag, you know, trigger some signals,

938
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 4: and they are just getting absolutely bamboozled at the moment.

939
00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 4: So I felt like that was a good signal of

940
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 4: what the heck is happening here.

941
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually wonder the passpo line of demarcation and legalization.

942
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:11,760
Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about the public getting smarter about

943
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 1: how much more money is coming into the market, how

944
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:20,359
Speaker 1: the bookmakers are becoming much more sort of retail books, right,

945
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:25,839
Speaker 1: and they probably think less and less about what professional

946
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:29,960
Speaker 1: betters are doing or moving on faces or moving off

947
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 1: of a five hundred dollars bet, even if it's someone

948
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: else's betting ten thousand dollars on the other side, if

949
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 1: the five hundred is smart money, I think that's having

950
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 1: a much bigger impact on how we think about our business, Simon,

951
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:50,239
Speaker 1: then maybe we've been accounting for a little bit.

952
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 3: I would say the biggest change to for me would be,

953
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 3: you know, I was living in Vegas, there were just

954
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 3: so few guys who did this for a living, especially

955
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 3: bet on the NFL for a living, because it's such

956
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 3: a hard sport to do.

957
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:06,919
Speaker 2: Now, Chad, it's a whole different world.

958
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 3: Like there's guys who I never would have taken serious,

959
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:10,720
Speaker 3: being the douchebag I was back.

960
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 2: Then, being like this not a real better Now, No,

961
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 2: this dude's legit. Like he's put in the work. You know.

962
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:20,439
Speaker 3: I see him there all the time in the sports book.

963
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 3: The more I talk to them, the more I respect them.

964
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 3: And this time goes along. You're like, Okay, it's a

965
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 3: new wave of this younger generation, people my age, I

966
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 3: should say, that have come to this market with their

967
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 3: own computer models where it just was never liked that, right,

968
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 3: you never really saw it like that in Vegas, And

969
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 3: I like it. But like you're saying, it's changed the

970
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 3: market in a lot of ways and a lot of

971
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 3: things we joked about, especially when they legalize it, of

972
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 3: you know, there's gonna be a lot of games where

973
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:48,800
Speaker 3: we get a ton of free points. We've been getting

974
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 3: that chet, but it's not been coming through. And I

975
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,800
Speaker 3: especially would have loved having to do just primetime games

976
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 3: because you know, some of my best runs have been

977
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 3: those underdaw under the unders on these primetime games. Like

978
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,799
Speaker 3: I've I've just had a really good run, especially since

979
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:08,880
Speaker 3: the legalization of sports betting, just simply betting unders in

980
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 3: these primetime games.

981
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 2: And you know we had that one.

982
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 3: Year, was that two years ago, Evan, where we were

983
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:15,879
Speaker 3: like seventy percent betting the under in prime time years.

984
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 2: It was crazy.

985
00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:19,319
Speaker 3: But I remember last year came back around, right, we

986
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 3: had a bunch of overs in prime time games. So

987
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 3: like we can just keep talking about it. It's like I

988
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 3: once again, I don't overad just but we're seeing the

989
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 3: public even they're betting these lines up. These offenses have

990
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,359
Speaker 3: been coming for the favorites, and these offenses on these

991
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 3: for these favorites have been coming through for them, where

992
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 3: the overs last year came through for them, and same

993
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:39,120
Speaker 3: with the favorites.

994
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:40,719
Speaker 2: So I don't know if you have numbers on that,

995
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 2: do you, Evan?

996
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:46,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just pulled so last season exactly five hundred.

997
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:50,240
Speaker 4: So basically, totals in night games thirty three and thirty

998
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 4: three in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three they

999
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 4: were seventy nine and forty eight to the under almost

1000
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 4: sixty three percent. So basically, I think you nailed it.

1001
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 4: I think it was Favorites creating those totals that should

1002
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 4: have gone under to over the underdog's not covering, and

1003
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 4: it happened at such a ridiculous rate that it basically

1004
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:13,399
Speaker 4: pushed it about twelve percent last year.

1005
00:49:13,960 --> 00:49:16,360
Speaker 3: I mean, you just heard that Chats. That's crazy the

1006
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 3: difference from year to year. And that's why I keep

1007
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:21,320
Speaker 3: trying to bring up that it simply could be anomaly.

1008
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 3: Like we with the rule change to the kickoff, we

1009
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 3: are living in a weird time period where all these

1010
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 3: lines were all screwed up, and we're gonna look back

1011
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 3: on it and just be like it was that simple teams,

1012
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 3: better offenses, better quarterbacks at shortened fields more often than

1013
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:38,279
Speaker 3: not because of the new kickoff rules. And you know,

1014
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 3: those unders killed me. But I remember thinking it might

1015
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 3: have been week five or six, adjust I didn't come

1016
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 3: on the show every week saying bet these product time

1017
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 3: owners because of that I was like, something's simply different

1018
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 3: here where these games we're not getting extra points or

1019
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 3: we're not getting the free points were used to. These

1020
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:56,439
Speaker 3: games are going to go over because something has changed.

1021
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 3: And unfortunately it took me all season to figure out

1022
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 3: that kickoff. Man, it changed so much last season, and

1023
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 3: just there, Evan, given those numbers, really jumps out to

1024
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:06,359
Speaker 3: me how much it did change it.

1025
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 1: Well, look, the kickoff rule is changing again, and I

1026
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 1: think my opinion on the kickoff rule right now is

1027
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 1: that it's going to change it to the detriment of

1028
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 1: what we saw last year. I think that teams will

1029
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:28,760
Speaker 1: more than likely be less inclined to when you're kicking

1030
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 1: off to putting the team in a position of running

1031
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 1: it back because the penalty is going to be so

1032
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:39,760
Speaker 1: much greater. It's going to be even harder to stop

1033
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 1: teams because the field's going to be even shorter. Number one.

1034
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:44,839
Speaker 1: Number two, the one thing that worries me, assignment about

1035
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:49,279
Speaker 1: what you just said regarding kickoffs is that's a one

1036
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 1: year sample and a lot of the stuff that Evan

1037
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:56,560
Speaker 1: just pointed out is multi year changes that where we've

1038
00:50:56,600 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 1: seen it sort of slant down, down, down, down down,

1039
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 1: that has nothing to do with kickoffs, and that's the

1040
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 1: harder thing to unpack.

1041
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 2: It does. But last year was that what I've been

1042
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:08,359
Speaker 2: talking about on steroids.

1043
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 3: Like those other years, the margins were much smaller, and

1044
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 3: we've already tald about there's other years the stuff that

1045
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 3: makes sense.

1046
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:17,439
Speaker 2: For those years where the practice rate has dropped.

1047
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 3: And you can really dive into this whole thing if

1048
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 3: people want to, Like I know proso have done it,

1049
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 3: but the fact that they're practicing less, tackling less has

1050
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 3: affected a lot of these teams, especially the difference between

1051
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 3: a well coached team and teams that put on the

1052
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:34,360
Speaker 3: pads during practice during certain weeks and teams that simply

1053
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 3: do not for the entire season. It's pretty interesting if

1054
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 3: people want to look into that stuff. But what you're

1055
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 3: talking about, going back chat, I feel like is also something.

1056
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:44,320
Speaker 3: I mean, you've been harping on about these coaches and

1057
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:46,920
Speaker 3: these fourth downs, like we've really if you go back

1058
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 3: and you look through even these last couple of years,

1059
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 3: especially these last four or five years since COVID, the

1060
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 3: upticking coaches going forward on fourth down on their own

1061
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:59,120
Speaker 3: side of the field is greatly up than it was

1062
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 3: in the twenty ten, and that is something that you

1063
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:04,640
Speaker 3: could attribute more to these favorites. But I just wanted

1064
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 3: to bring up the prime time underthink is people have

1065
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:08,399
Speaker 3: asked me about it. Why we really didn't talk about

1066
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 3: it last season. I was like, what is there to

1067
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:12,239
Speaker 3: talk about it? It's a bad bet, Like there was

1068
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 3: no value to me. We'll see this upcoming season, like

1069
00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 3: we said, I'm hoping the books ad just because of

1070
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:21,200
Speaker 3: the kickoff Chad, maybe every week we'll get an.

1071
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:22,320
Speaker 2: Extra four or five points.

1072
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:24,840
Speaker 3: But you know, last year what hung true to me

1073
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 3: was Evan always come on here and talk about the

1074
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 3: fifty point line right when the total is above fifty points.

1075
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:32,839
Speaker 3: Historically we'd always bet that under. I don't know if

1076
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 3: Evan has the numbers of it. Felt the same thing

1077
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:38,279
Speaker 3: last year where that wasn't an easy layup bet every

1078
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 3: week like it was in the before, where you know,

1079
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 3: certain weeks we had to actually stay away from it,

1080
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:45,920
Speaker 3: where it's like, no, these two offenses can hit this

1081
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 3: number where usually we talk, we joke all the time,

1082
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 3: like you see a fifty one, you blindly take that under. Historically,

1083
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 3: long term that's a winner. So once again is because

1084
00:52:55,600 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 3: of the kickoff chats because of the fourth down ruling.

1085
00:52:58,040 --> 00:52:59,799
Speaker 2: Is it all of it all mixed in one pot together.

1086
00:52:59,840 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 3: It's just something that jumped out to me where it's

1087
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 3: like these simple bets I don't need to put a

1088
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 3: ton of work into now that's gonna be in another

1089
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:10,440
Speaker 3: couple hours a week added into my regime of diving too,

1090
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:12,279
Speaker 3: these different games and these numbers, just because I can't

1091
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 3: blindly bet the under on fifty one that I used to,

1092
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:15,359
Speaker 3: Is that true, Evan?

1093
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, So at fifty or higher, twenty twenty one to

1094
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:24,839
Speaker 4: twenty twenty three, fifty nine percent, sixty four forty four.

1095
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 4: Last year thirteen and twelve five hundred didn't matter all

1096
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 4: in the air. So yeah, I mean last season that

1097
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 4: number didn't turn to anything. You know, three years prior,

1098
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,760
Speaker 4: you'd be up almost thirteen percent ROI.

1099
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of patterns you're seeing here, Chad,

1100
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:40,799
Speaker 2: A lot of patterns.

1101
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:43,279
Speaker 1: I actually wonder in the next year, assignment, will you

1102
00:53:43,320 --> 00:53:50,280
Speaker 1: spend more time during this offseason focusing on fourth down

1103
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 1: and how to find the signals and the noise on

1104
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 1: fourth down conversion or what happened with the kickoff?

1105
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 2: I already I'm done with a kickoff.

1106
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 3: I put a ton of time in that receis the

1107
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 3: season ended jat like I usually go away, I didn't

1108
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 3: do any of that. I literally just dove right back

1109
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:10,400
Speaker 3: into it cause I was losing my shit, especially in

1110
00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 3: the middle of the season about it, where it's like,

1111
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 3: why can't I just this?

1112
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 2: What am I missing on this rule? And what's the

1113
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 2: biggest difference here?

1114
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:19,399
Speaker 3: I told you the biggest difference to me these last

1115
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:21,960
Speaker 3: couple of years has been the influx of these mobile

1116
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 3: quarterbacks from college and how that affects how these coaches

1117
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:28,799
Speaker 3: call these fourth down place because that is such a

1118
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 3: huge difference, right.

1119
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:32,320
Speaker 2: You have so many different options.

1120
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:33,920
Speaker 3: You can either do a readoption to the running back

1121
00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:35,839
Speaker 3: where the quarterback can keep it and running, or they

1122
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 3: can just take it out of the running backs belly

1123
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:39,799
Speaker 3: and just do a quick pass. And like we've seen

1124
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:43,319
Speaker 3: these last five, six, seven years, that really changed these

1125
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:44,840
Speaker 3: fourth down offenses where it's.

1126
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:47,400
Speaker 2: Such a big deal. So I'm probably with you.

1127
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:50,160
Speaker 3: I'll probably spend the next you know, month of May

1128
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,359
Speaker 3: a little bit of June dive even more to these

1129
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,880
Speaker 3: fourth down offenses. And you know, I've watched every single

1130
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:59,920
Speaker 3: snap Daniels took on fourth downs, and I'm really excited

1131
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:03,560
Speaker 3: Kingsbury does in year two of him because every play

1132
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 3: they called for him on fourth down was the perfect

1133
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:07,920
Speaker 3: call of the perfect exact time. That's why me and

1134
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:11,279
Speaker 3: you kept yelling for regression. It took a long ass time,

1135
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:13,760
Speaker 3: I think, into the NFC Championship game for that aggression

1136
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 3: to hit on fourth down because every play they had called,

1137
00:55:16,680 --> 00:55:19,040
Speaker 3: Daniels always made their right read. Either gave it to

1138
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:21,840
Speaker 3: the running back, hit the first read and Terry McLaurin,

1139
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:24,200
Speaker 3: or he pulled it in and ranted himself. Never did

1140
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:25,840
Speaker 3: he make the wrong read. What was it eighty percent

1141
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:28,400
Speaker 3: they were on fourth down, So it was just I mean,

1142
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 3: it's incredible going back and watching that because you know,

1143
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 3: I like to pick guys apart, because I know what

1144
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:35,080
Speaker 3: this is what the NFL coaches are gonna do. Like

1145
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 3: every team the NFC is, all they're doing is watching

1146
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:40,880
Speaker 3: Daniels tape. Like they don't care about Dak or Russell

1147
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 3: Wilson on the Giants or Jalen Hurts. Everyone's just so

1148
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 3: locked in on Daniels because he was such a game

1149
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:48,359
Speaker 3: fajer last year and that that to meet chat would

1150
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:50,920
Speaker 3: be my biggest offseason project. What is going down on

1151
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 3: these fourth downs on short fields? What is the biggest

1152
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:55,919
Speaker 3: change these coaches have made with a new kickoff rule?

1153
00:55:56,640 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 1: Simon Evan, This may be the most important episode we

1154
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:07,120
Speaker 1: ever do, and amazingly We'll return with our next episode

1155
00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 1: of The Favorites Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page.

1156
00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods,

1157
00:56:14,640 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.

1158
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:29,560
Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift Until next time, Love you. Action

1159
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:34,120
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

1160
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, Help us available

1161
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:39,760
Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler