1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 2: Pot All right, here we go spreading the corner. 3 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:16,240 Speaker 1: Ten seconds remaining, then just go throw up to the basket. 4 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:17,760 Speaker 1: Under the basket, it's. 5 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:19,319 Speaker 3: The troupe for the wind God. 6 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 4: They go amerracle I just. 7 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: Water and that one from the parking lot. 8 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I'm your host, 9 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: Mike Calvary's. We have our hands on the official sixty 10 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,520 Speaker 1: eighteen bracket to agonize over these matchups in the coming days. 11 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:41,599 Speaker 1: As for the teams, what qualifies as success, I mean 12 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: it differs from the big programs to the smaller ones. 13 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 1: Those smaller schools can put their schools on the map, 14 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: as UNBC Saint Peter's Florida Gulf Coast have done in 15 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 1: years past, simply by winning a single game or getting 16 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: to the second weekend. But there's a lot of teams 17 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: at the top of the bracket, of those one and 18 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: two seeds that they don't make it to San Antonio. 19 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: If they don't cut down the nets, it won't be 20 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: a successful march. 21 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 3: It can also be a successful march. 22 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: For us gamblers if we can hit it bick in 23 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 1: some of these pools. And this episode is for you. 24 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: This is our annual March Madness Pool Strategy episode. We're 25 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: going to break down the two most popular pools that 26 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 1: people are playing out there in the market, which of 27 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: course are those traditional bracket pools as well as survivor pools. 28 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: And we're going to bring in pool play expert in 29 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: friend of the podcast, Jason Lisk from poolgenius dot com 30 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: to help us unpack all of it. How excited are 31 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 1: you for March madus to officially kick off on Tuesday night? 32 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 4: Jason super excited, you know, definitely to watch these games. 33 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 4: Also that I don't have to make these bracket predictions 34 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 4: about you know, which of these crazy bubble teams is 35 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 4: going to get excluded, which is what I was doing 36 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 4: up till now, And all the prep work that I've 37 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 4: been doing, hopefully will come to fruition as we get 38 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 4: into these games. I've been studying all these teams make 39 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 4: It notes, and we've been adjusting our ratings for our 40 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 4: bracket pick advice, so we have detailed information on all 41 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 4: the teams. 42 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: At Action Network love Pool Genius. We love their products 43 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: and we've once again partnered with them this season. That's 44 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: because they remain the only site dedicated exclusively to helping 45 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 1: people win more pools across all kinds of sports, from 46 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: the NFL to college basketball and everything in between. We 47 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: love data and analytics here at Action, and they've spent 48 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 1: over a decade building tools to optimize your picks based 49 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: on math, game theory and data. And their subscribers have 50 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: reported more than eight million dollars in pool prize winnings 51 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: since twenty seventeen and cash in their pools more than 52 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: three times more than expected. So, so much value, so 53 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: much to unpack here in this episode, So let's jump 54 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: right into it. But before we do, Jason, why don't 55 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 1: you just quickly tell us about the customizable products that 56 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: pool Genius offers this year. 57 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, for the NCAA tournament specifically, we have a variety 58 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 4: of things, including some one more new product. Our core 59 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 4: product is our men's bracket product, which has been going 60 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 4: on for well over a decade, and you get customized 61 00:02:57,480 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 4: pick advice for all types. 62 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 2: Of scoring rules, set up as many pools as you. 63 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 4: Want, and you get a set of brackets so you 64 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 4: can set up an upset driven pool, a small pool, 65 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 4: all that stuff, and you might get different upsets. You 66 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 4: might get chalk of your picks. In the small pool, 67 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 4: you might get some key picks and other pools, and 68 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 4: we give you alternate brackets so you can view all 69 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 4: the alternates and decide which ones you want to play 70 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 4: if you're playing in portfolio. Besides the bracket picks, we 71 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,360 Speaker 4: have our Survivor. We have a Calcutta product, So we 72 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 4: have a Survivor product that will give you the odds, 73 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 4: the round advancement ods kind of assess you know both 74 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 4: teams current win odds and their future value, because that's 75 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 4: what you really have to do in Survivor is figure 76 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 4: out when you want to use a team, when it 77 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 4: makes the most sense to take your risk. You either 78 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 4: take risk now or you take it later by trying 79 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 4: to hope a team doesn't kill you in the final four. 80 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 4: And so that Survivor in Calcutta, we have a customized 81 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 4: product where you get our advancement ods and our numbers 82 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 4: applied to whatever you say your Calcutt rules are, and 83 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 4: you can adjust as your pools, as your pot size increases, 84 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 4: as you enter how much money a team has been for. 85 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 4: So it is designed to help you as you go 86 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 4: through a Calcutta pool and then new for this year 87 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 4: women's NCAA brackets. Same logic, same philosophy as our men's brackets, 88 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 4: but we now have picks on South Carolina, Connecticut, USC, 89 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 4: et cetera in the women's brackets. 90 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 2: So if you're playing women's brackets, check us out again. 91 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 1: Today we'll be discussing the strategies for the two most 92 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 1: popular kinds of March Madness pools. That means our traditional 93 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: bracket pools as well as survivor pools. We'll start with 94 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,359 Speaker 1: the more popular bracket pools that's what the vast majority 95 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 1: of people are comfortable and familiar with, and we'll move 96 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:40,720 Speaker 1: to some of the other pools and kind of look 97 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:43,119 Speaker 1: at some of the angles that are specific and unique 98 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,799 Speaker 1: to them. As a reminder, pool Genius is extending special 99 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 1: March Madness pricing just for action listeners. They've got options 100 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,479 Speaker 1: for March Madness, NFL pools, golf pools, really whatever you're into. 101 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 1: So if you want to get an edge in your 102 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: bracket pool or survivor pool this week, just visit the 103 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 1: link in this episode's description to see all the offers discounts. 104 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: All right, let's get into the meat of this is 105 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 1: what people came for this is what they're listening in 106 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 1: for Jason. From a data perspective, what are the most 107 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 1: important components to consider when filling out your traditional bracket 108 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: and what are the rules to be aware of scale 109 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: a by and number of entries that you're competing against. 110 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, we definitely want to adjust on pool size, and 111 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 4: not just pul size but functional pool size, like the 112 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 4: number of payout spots. So we would treat a one 113 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 4: hundred person winner take all pool differently than we would 114 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 4: treat one with ten playout spots, And we want to 115 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 4: take a little more risk and the winner take all 116 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 4: because you have you are less likely to the outcome 117 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 4: and you need to thread the needle more and so 118 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 4: those things will come into play. And then of course the. 119 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 2: Scoring rules matter a lot, like. 120 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 4: The standard scoring, Like if you go to ESPN or 121 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 4: a place that has like a really large amount for 122 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:54,359 Speaker 4: the champ pick puts an extreme bonus on getting the champ, 123 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 4: the final four, the champion runner up. And so you 124 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 4: really want to think what teams giving my best chance? 125 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 4: And maybe I'm willing to eat some chalk there and 126 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 4: differenttionated elsewhere, so I give myself the best chance to 127 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 4: hit those points. Whereas in a seed based pool or 128 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 4: an upset pool, maybe I'm going on some upsets, some 129 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 4: less likely outcomes there just to maximize my points. So 130 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 4: you want to think about all those things, and they 131 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 4: all come up in our strategy as we think about 132 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 4: what's the best way. 133 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 1: To play it now this year in particular here in 134 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, you talk about Chalky picks potentially getting 135 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 1: to the final four winning the national championship, at least 136 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: according to Kenpom, any of the top seeds, the number 137 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: one seeds, so that's Florida, Houston, Auburn Duke. If any 138 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 1: of them win the national title, there's a high likelihood 139 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: they're going to be the top rated in terms of 140 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 1: their net rating from Kenpom as an overall rating of 141 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,039 Speaker 1: any champion in the last twenty five years, making this 142 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 1: the most incredible crop of one seeds that we've seen 143 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 1: really in the last quarter century. 144 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 3: Do you think it is worth it to. 145 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: Play contrarian and go outside of those number one seeds? 146 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:05,919 Speaker 1: Are they just so much stronger than the field that 147 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: you don't want to handicap yourself right out of the 148 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 1: gate by getting a little too cute and going with 149 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: a three or four seed to cut down the nets. 150 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna give you kind of my 151 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 4: assessment of this field. And along those lines, with our ratings, 152 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 4: Duke is rated higher than any team. 153 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 2: We've had in the last decade. 154 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 4: Now, that's compared to the average Division I school, and 155 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 4: you have to understand things have changed, like the older players, 156 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 4: the transfer portal mid majors being basically ripped of their 157 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 4: players and them playing now Jenei Broom and guys like 158 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 4: that on high majors. You know, those guys would have 159 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 4: been on the ten seeds and making a run a 160 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 4: decade ago. And so the average college basketball team is 161 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 4: probably not quite as good as it was in fifteen 162 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 4: because some of the mid majors have been has lost 163 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 4: those But relative to average, Duke is really dominant, so 164 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 4: is Houston. Florida is on a roll, and probably since 165 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 4: Thanksgiving would rate similarly closer to Duke. Auburn really good early, 166 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 4: sliding late, but still up there. 167 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 1: And so. 168 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 4: Just to put it in perspective, twenty twenty three, that 169 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 4: was the Alabama year with Brandon william and they were 170 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 4: the one seed, but he was hurt, and their power 171 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 4: rating is less than Tennessee this year, who's not even 172 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 4: a one seed relatively speaking. Andy was hurt, and so 173 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 4: we know that all the one seeds got knocked off 174 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 4: it year, but they also weren't as dominant as this 175 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 4: year's teams. And so if you're asking me, I think 176 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 4: that I would say one of these teams is going 177 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:41,559 Speaker 4: to win the national title. 178 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 2: I would be very surprised. 179 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 4: Now, could there be one of them get knocked off 180 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 4: in like the sweet sixteen or something. Yeah, the eight 181 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 4: seeds are strong. Could a Gonzaga or a Connecticut with 182 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 4: their pedigree and when you know, with a fully healthy 183 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 4: team entering the tournament beat them. Yes, there are there 184 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:01,079 Speaker 4: are roadblocks, but I think one of them will get through, 185 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 4: and if that path opens up because the other got 186 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 4: knocked off, that just makes that team's chances more likely. 187 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 4: And so I wouldn't go too far down the list 188 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 4: this year. It's kind of like my thought. The other 189 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 4: thought here is I think the committee got the top 190 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 4: three or four seed lines right in terms of quality, 191 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 4: but then it's a jumbled mess after that, And so 192 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 4: I'm I think it's like there's a lot of like 193 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 4: question marks in the middle of this bracket. 194 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 1: It's interesting when you talk about the top I also 195 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: look at the bottom of twelve through sixteen seeds. This 196 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 1: was a very light year on what are called bid steelers. 197 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 1: You didn't have these Cinderella stories and conference tournaments where 198 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: a team goes seventeen and fifteen and then wins five 199 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: games in five days. Now, part of that is a 200 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,319 Speaker 1: lot of these low and mid major conferences have constructed 201 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 1: their tournaments to really protect top seeds, you know, advancing 202 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 1: them all the way to the semis or having every 203 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 1: single game on their home floor. But with that being said, 204 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 1: between the twelve and sixteen lines, there are eleven teams 205 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: that were either co or regular season champs that went 206 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 1: on to win their conference tournament as well. So from 207 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: that perspective, do you think there's a chance for some 208 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: madness and an opportunity to really get crazy with some 209 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 1: upset picks to differentiate your bracket right out of the gate. 210 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 3: With those round of sixty four. 211 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 4: Upsets, there are definitely you know, I would I play 212 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 4: that in like a small bracket? 213 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 1: Now? 214 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 4: Would I probably bet that more is like the money 215 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 4: line type plays. But there are definitely opportunities where these 216 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 4: twelve seeds. I mean Colorado States favored, and they should 217 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 4: be by the way, should be. We were giving them 218 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,199 Speaker 4: out for the Mountain West futures. We have them rated up. 219 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 4: Their lineup is vastly different than it was in November December. 220 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 4: And with this current lineup, they're playing like a top 221 00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 4: four seed. 222 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 2: That's how that's the quality. 223 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: Now. 224 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 4: We haven't seen it outside the Mountain West, and so 225 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 4: you have question marks, but Colorado State has potential to 226 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:49,319 Speaker 4: be that. 227 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 2: And they're a twelve seed. Liberty Yale Charles, who else 228 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 2: is up in that group? 229 00:10:56,040 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 4: We got mcniche, we san Dieo on I thought had 230 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 4: in that large case if they had lost to UC 231 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 4: or Vant and should have got in Oversay in North 232 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 4: Carolina or one of these other teams in the bubble 233 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 4: and been like an eleven ten seed. And they are 234 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 4: a twelve and they draw the big ten champ coming 235 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 4: off a long week and going out to Denver in 236 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 4: the elevation. So there's lots of potential in that twelve 237 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 4: thirteen range. Because yes, as you said, the seeds held 238 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:26,679 Speaker 4: this year. I was doing bracket projections two or three 239 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 4: weeks ago and I barely had to change anything in 240 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 4: the top two or three seed lines of the mid majors. Now, 241 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 4: they did change in the sixteen seed range, but at 242 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 4: the twelve thirteen fourteen a lot of those teams won, 243 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 4: and the teams that maybe weren't quite expected to win, 244 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 4: like Atroy is emerging and still playing well and has 245 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 4: athletes that can play well. And so I think there 246 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 4: is a lot of danger in that twelve to fourteen range. 247 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 1: Before we transition and talk about survivor pools, which is 248 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: a little bit more advanced and maybe a little bit 249 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 1: more unique to the casual better What advice do you 250 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 1: give to folks that are just parachuting in and this 251 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: is their one touch point with college basketball the entire season. 252 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 1: They haven't been keeping keeping an eye on it or 253 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 1: really keeping track of anything, either from a strategy perspective 254 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:11,559 Speaker 1: or these are just some nuggets to know that will 255 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 1: make you feel a little bit more plugged in to 256 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 1: the big dance. 257 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 4: I mean, just if you're if you're not used to 258 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 4: playing and you're bouncing in, I would say avoid picking 259 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,439 Speaker 4: too many upsets in your bracket, especially if you're playing 260 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 4: in a group of friends in a small pool. Individual 261 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,439 Speaker 4: upsets are hard to pick, like nobody saw NC State coming. 262 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 4: NC State making the final four last year did not 263 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 4: kill you. You had to have connecticuts a champ. But 264 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:40,199 Speaker 4: if nobody had NC State probably, I mean in three 265 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 4: hundred four hundred percent pools, nobody had them. The picks 266 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 4: that kill you are the like popular teams you fade 267 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 4: like if you're like I'm gonna fade Auburn, and if 268 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 4: Auburn wins the title, you're dead. That's the picks that 269 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 4: kill you. And so I would say, you know, you 270 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 4: got to get that final four right. You got to 271 00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 4: get the right combination of the one in two seats. But 272 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,319 Speaker 4: there's so many combinations. I think you can be chalky 273 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 4: and just pick the right combinations of one, two, three 274 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:07,319 Speaker 4: seeds this year and do well. So don't get too 275 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 4: crazy at the top in the final rounds of your bracket. 276 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 4: The other thing is, like I said, top of the 277 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 4: bracket's pretty strong compared to recent history. 278 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 2: Will that hold. 279 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 4: I think there's some injury question marks in like the 280 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 4: three seed range that could cause some issues. But at 281 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:25,679 Speaker 4: the top I have a hard time seeing a lot 282 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 4: of these teams losing. 283 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 2: So I. 284 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 4: Think you just focus in on the chalk and look 285 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 4: at some popularity numbers. We have that to differentiate some 286 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 4: of them. But you know, you don't have to get 287 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:38,719 Speaker 4: too crazy in a bracket pool. You can win a 288 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 4: bracket contest going one v one in the final, because 289 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 4: a lot of people don't like to do that. They 290 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 4: like to pick one one seed and then one flyer. 291 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 4: You can just you know, Connecticut Purdue last year wasn't 292 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 4: that popular of a combo. It won you pools and 293 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 4: it was sitting right there. So anyway, I don't think 294 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 4: you should shy away from Duke Florida Florida to Duke 295 00:13:58,120 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 4: Duke Auburn, Florida, Houston. 296 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 2: Just have the right FAMO. 297 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with the top teams. 298 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 1: One of the issues that I have year over year 299 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: is that there's certain teams, and we've seen it with 300 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: Nate Oates Alabama squads. If the three pointers aren't falling, 301 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:13,439 Speaker 1: they could lose to just about anybody. If they're making 302 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,839 Speaker 1: twelve to fifteen threes, they could win the national championship. 303 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: That's what I would refer to as a high variance team, 304 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: just based on their three point volume and their accuracy, 305 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 1: which sometimes in neutral sites. We've seen it with NCAA 306 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 1: tournament games as well, where they use different basketballs and 307 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, teams are shooting fifteen percent from 308 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: three if that's their only path forward, sometimes that can 309 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: scare me away a little bit. You look at the 310 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: top teams at least on the one line, all of 311 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: these teams can win with their defense. 312 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 3: So even if the. 313 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: Shots aren't falling in the first weekend, they can certainly, 314 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 1: you know, just grind out some wins in the half court. 315 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 3: So just something to consider. 316 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: If a team, whether it's one of the top seeded 317 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: teams or you're looking at a Cinderella, are they dependent 318 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: on one thing turnover margin, three points, you know, getting 319 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 1: to the foul line. It's on things that if it's 320 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: taken away all of a sudden, they become a pedestrian team. 321 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 4: Alabama had that run last year. They were very offensively skewed, 322 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 4: but we've seen teams like that Falter. I think if 323 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 4: you are strong in areas like rebounding, you aren't relying 324 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 4: on outside you and then when it happens, then you're 325 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 4: just getting a bonus in the tournament. And so I 326 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 4: do think you want to think about that. I think 327 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 4: some of the higher variance teams in this year's tournament 328 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 4: are also these injuries situations like Texas Tech, Iowa State 329 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 4: the three line Those teams could flame out early because 330 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 4: of the injuries, or they could go on a run, 331 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 4: and so that also increases the variants. Illinois just because 332 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 4: they've been so up and down with their lineups, they've 333 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 4: played like a one seat at times and played like 334 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 4: they shouldn't be in the tournament at other times. 335 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 2: It seems like that are high variants. And then yeah, 336 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 2: a lot of these. 337 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 4: Mid majors shoot the ball a lot, and so that 338 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 4: it does increase variance in these early round games. 339 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: Let's transition to my favorite style of Marshmadows pool, which 340 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 1: is the survivor pool. It's pretty simple, whether you have 341 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: to pick two winners on Thursday, Friday or just one 342 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 1: winner every single day, it's one and done, meaning you 343 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: can use that team to survive, but you cannot use 344 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: them again, which means there's two separate ways that you 345 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 1: can get booted. You can either lose and you know, 346 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: unfortunately in that situation you're done from the pool, or 347 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 1: you have to buy back and there's some prohibitive costs 348 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: and also strategy to consider or which happens to me 349 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: many times. 350 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 3: I just run out of teams. All the teams that. 351 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 1: Are left, I've already used all of them, and you 352 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 1: get eliminated in that way. So kind of walk us 353 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: through what it's like to strategize these and how people 354 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 1: should think of them in terms of approaching it as 355 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: opposed like just from a big picture perspective, coming in 356 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: perhaps doing it for the first time. 357 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean what you said is absolutely right, Like 358 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 4: you could run out of teams, and there's also risk earlier, 359 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 4: there's risk. There's two types of risk and survival pool. 360 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 4: There's the risk I lose right now, and there's the 361 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 4: risk this team burns me because they just keep going 362 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 4: on a run. And it's not always the teams you 363 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 4: think either, right, Florida Atlantic, people loaded up on Florida 364 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 4: Atlantic because they caught Fairley Dickinson, what do you in 365 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 4: the eight or nine versus sixteen game, loaded up on 366 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 4: them in the second round, then they reached the final four. 367 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 4: Those people probably lost picking against them in the early 368 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 4: eight And so it's not always the teams you think 369 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 4: that you want to fade that end up costing you. 370 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 4: But that's how it works. I mean, so you just 371 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 4: got to make the decisions based on the information you 372 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 4: have going into that game, and you got to assess 373 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,120 Speaker 4: both types of risks. What are the odds this team 374 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 4: still around in the final four based on where we 375 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,159 Speaker 4: are now and could win the national title? So I 376 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 4: need them for that final pick versus what are the 377 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:29,879 Speaker 4: odds they win now or get eliminated? And you balance 378 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 4: both because, like, let's take Duke in round one this year, 379 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,199 Speaker 4: Duke is according to art like fifty percent to make 380 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 4: the final four. I think in the betting markets, you 381 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 4: might be a minus. 382 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:41,920 Speaker 2: Number, and. 383 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:45,160 Speaker 4: So they've got a lot of you use them now, 384 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:49,359 Speaker 4: you risk being burned like a coin flip, but they're 385 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 4: a lock to win. 386 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 2: In around one. 387 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 4: Virtually, Baylor and Mississippi State are a toss up game, 388 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 4: so they're like fifty percent win now, but they're not 389 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 4: going to burn you. 390 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 2: It's two sides of the same point. 391 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 4: I think both are picks that are not the best 392 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:08,679 Speaker 4: pick you could make, but they are similar picks on 393 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 4: different sides of that coin. Like you're just shifting where 394 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 4: your risk is entirely. So I think the picks you 395 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 4: want to focus on are the ones that give you 396 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 4: a good chance to advance, but you think that team's 397 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 4: odds of going deep less than maybe other people think, 398 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 4: or maybe they're a three seed that has a great 399 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 4: matchup right away, but then it gets tough by the 400 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:28,719 Speaker 4: sweet sixteen, and so you're like, I think I can 401 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 4: use them now, and so you want to try to 402 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 4: identify things, or you find the seven to ten matchup 403 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 4: where you're like, I think I'm getting good odds now. 404 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:37,920 Speaker 4: I think this team's sixty five to seventy percent to win, 405 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,160 Speaker 4: and I want to take them. 406 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,119 Speaker 1: Yeah, you bring up an interesting point about trying not 407 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,679 Speaker 1: to get too far ahead of yourself in terms of 408 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 1: what the hypothetical matchups could be, because you can get burns, 409 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 1: and crazy things happen and there's upsets, and all of 410 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 1: a sudden, you could have a huge favorite in the 411 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: sweet sixteen that you thought was going to run into 412 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 1: a higher seed and be an underdog, and that all 413 00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: of a sudden becomes a layup. When I start to 414 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,920 Speaker 1: look at this particular year, though, I look at Houston, 415 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 1: and I look at Auburn, and to a lesser degree, 416 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 1: I look at Florida, where yes, it's basically a free 417 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,439 Speaker 1: square to get them against the sixteen seed. They're not 418 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 1: going to lose those games. And then the committee did 419 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,120 Speaker 1: them no favors whatsoever. Having the Zags in the second 420 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 1: round against a Houston team that may be shorthanded, Florida 421 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 1: potentially having to play Yukon, and then Auburn having to 422 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,439 Speaker 1: play against Louisville. These are tough matchups that I would 423 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 1: almost rather play in the Sweet sixteen as opposed to 424 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 1: the round to thirty two. 425 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,359 Speaker 4: There for sure, I don't think you're picking those games 426 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 4: in the sweet sixteen. It's just a question whether you 427 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 4: want to save them in case they go to the 428 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 4: Final four or in the Elite eight round. I think 429 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 4: I probably still lean more to save. But if I'm 430 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,919 Speaker 4: playing like a portfolio of injuries, which I think you 431 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 4: should do, like if I'm playing this contest, I'm finding 432 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,760 Speaker 4: my price point and then dividing injuries up. I don't 433 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:49,199 Speaker 4: want to play one injury. I want to play like 434 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 4: ten I want to cover combos. I want to have 435 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 4: like some where I pick Tennessee right away, but some 436 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 4: where I have Tennessee available and just see what works. 437 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 4: That's kind of how I would play it. And so yeah, 438 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 4: I wouldn't rule out using any team. I would probably 439 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:08,439 Speaker 4: employ like a combined approach where I'm like sprinkling some 440 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 4: types of teams early and saving them on. 441 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 2: The other entries. 442 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 1: Now, I think the casual gambler, even if they can 443 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: get their own strategy fine tunes calibrated, they feel confident 444 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: about the teams that they're putting forward and hoping to 445 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 1: catch certain matchups in the first weekends on Saturday and Sunday. 446 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: All that's great, But if you don't understand how long 447 00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 1: the average player is in and alive in a pool 448 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:35,239 Speaker 1: like this, you don't necessarily have a feel for when 449 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 1: you should get aggressive, when you should try to save teams. 450 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: How long is the average entry and a survivor pool? 451 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 2: Not very long. 452 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 4: If you make it with an entry to the Sweet 453 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 4: sixteen year above the game, probably, especially if you had 454 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,679 Speaker 4: to make multiple picks now, unless you're using all your 455 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 4: one seeds and then you're in trouble longer term. Probably, So, 456 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 4: if you're playing the game at all to like try 457 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 4: to set your ownself up to win a big pool 458 00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 4: in the final four, you're taking on risk in your 459 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 4: odds probably under fifty percent to make the Sweet sixteen, 460 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 4: But you know that's how it's played. Now, when do 461 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 4: you want to set up scenarios? I don't think you 462 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 4: worry about popularity as much. In the first round there's 463 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 4: enough options. People are spread out, but you will find 464 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 4: like whatever fourteen seed wins, if one happens or thirteen seed, 465 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 4: people will play against them heavily in the next round, 466 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 4: with like the five seed to six seed, the seven 467 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 4: And then you've got to decide do I want to 468 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 4: fade the crowd, because if it happens Missouri, My Missouri 469 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 4: Tigers lost to Princeton a couple of years ago the 470 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 4: fifteen seed, and everybody was on them in survivor pools. 471 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 4: And if you avoid that team boom, you are suddenly 472 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 4: in a pool that got wiped out. And so those 473 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 4: are the strategy you got to think about. Do I 474 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 4: want to say future value or do I want to 475 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 4: play the crowd? And that starts up in like the 476 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 4: second round and definitely the Sweet sixteen, and then you 477 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,400 Speaker 4: have to be comfortable taking an underdog at some point. 478 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 4: I guarantee you you almost will have to take an 479 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 4: underdog at some point to win in March Madness survival pool. 480 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 1: As our illustrious producer Matt Mitchell likes tos say, I'm 481 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 1: likey hedges from time to time. I have no problem 482 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,679 Speaker 1: if I make it to the Sweet sixteen or Elite 483 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,360 Speaker 1: eight and there's a Cinderella that's making a run, if 484 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: I'm fading them, hey sprinkle on the money line the. 485 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:14,639 Speaker 3: Other way, maybe even just to cover your costs. 486 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: There's different ways to hedge out beyond just having multiple 487 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,119 Speaker 1: entries in some of these pools. So just somebody to 488 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,240 Speaker 1: consider for people who are getting into this for the 489 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 1: first time. Any other thoughts on survivor pool play and 490 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 1: some strategy that you just try to give. 491 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 3: You know, people who are participating it the first time. 492 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 1: I think we hit a lot of the main buckets here, 493 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 1: But in terms of let's bring it to twenty twenty five, 494 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 1: we talked about the strength of the top those three 495 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 1: seats a little bit weaker, you know, Gilbert being out 496 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,680 Speaker 1: for the season and this tournament, certainly for Iowa State 497 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 1: Texas Tech having a huge variance in terms of lineup, 498 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,680 Speaker 1: not only players being healthy and available, but also playing 499 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,400 Speaker 1: at the level they did when they were a top 500 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:54,040 Speaker 1: ten team across all the analytical platforms. 501 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 3: About a month ago. 502 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 1: So when you think about the let's start with Thursday Friday, 503 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: where did your mind go, Let's just talk about your 504 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 1: picks and not necessarily even the overarching strategy of survivor 505 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: pool play. 506 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, my mind goes to finding those three seeds, the 507 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 4: four seeds. Well, I think the five seeds are a 508 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 4: little too risky in some of them that I'm playing, 509 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 4: But there are some six and sevens that I'm willing 510 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 4: to play on future value, like maybe at Kansas. Maybe 511 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:26,880 Speaker 4: at Kansas to win one game, right, maybe Againzaga, because 512 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,880 Speaker 4: then I'm playing that they won't be Houston, but they're 513 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:31,400 Speaker 4: a favorite in this round, right. 514 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 2: Or I'm looking at the three seeds. 515 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,720 Speaker 4: Maybe they have some risk, but I'm willing to take 516 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 4: on that risk because I think that risk also makes 517 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 4: it unlikely they make a deep run. So maybe you're 518 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 4: just like, I'm going to take a risk on Kentucky 519 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 4: that they that they can beat a fourteen seed and 520 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,120 Speaker 4: maybe the injuries just keep them from making a deeper 521 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,159 Speaker 4: run in this tournament. And so those are the kind 522 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 4: of things that I'm thinking about balancing. And then the 523 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,159 Speaker 4: other thing I would say we haven't talked about, but 524 00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 4: one I'll cover this in the article for subscribers, But 525 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 4: you have to think about the combinations of teams used, 526 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 4: because some teams play on Thursday Saturday in week one, 527 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 4: and then we'll play teams in the same region that 528 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 4: played on a different day in the first week, but 529 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 4: depending on the East, the West, and Midwest, and so 530 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 4: you can't use teams that don't compliment each other. You 531 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 4: might otherwise get in a situation where those teams advanced. 532 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,159 Speaker 4: You find yourself with a region where you've used three teams, 533 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 4: and that's not good. And so you do have to 534 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 4: think about how you balance your first round picks across days, 535 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 4: and then how you're setting up not using too many 536 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 4: teams from. 537 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 2: The same region for the next week. 538 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:38,920 Speaker 1: Say I'm in a pool with you. It's a smaller 539 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 1: sized pool. You know, our picks are locked in. You 540 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,640 Speaker 1: asked me, who do you got today? And I say, 541 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 1: Colorado State over Memphis is my survivor pick? Or Drake 542 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 1: over Missou or U see San Diego over Michigan. Am 543 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,679 Speaker 1: I too cute by half? Or do you kind of 544 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 1: view that as a heading move? Maybe a plus EV 545 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 1: move if I can just make it through that first 546 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: risky pick. What is your gut reaction when someone shares something. 547 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 4: Like that, Yeah, well, Colorado State's favored, So I don't 548 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,440 Speaker 4: think that's too cute because I do think they're the 549 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 4: more likely team to win. I do think with these underdogs, 550 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,160 Speaker 4: like I said, you're not going to have such a popularity. 551 00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 4: Like if I'm playing a dog, I want to get 552 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 4: the crowd against me. I want to leverage that on upsets. 553 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 4: So I'm not sure I want to do that in 554 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 4: round one on an outright dog, but I'm willing to 555 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 4: do it after round one if I think the popularity 556 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,199 Speaker 4: dictates it. If I can catch twenty percent or more 557 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,719 Speaker 4: of the pool on the team i'm picking against, I 558 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 4: love that on an underdog, right. I don't think that's 559 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,679 Speaker 4: gonna happen with some of these first round plays. 560 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 1: Last one to get you out of here. On which 561 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: first round matchup do you think is going to be 562 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: the grave digger just sending people out of Survivor pools 563 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 1: right away? I'll throw out a couple. I don't think 564 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 1: Michigan is going to be a popular pick because I 565 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: believe they're going to be playing their fourth game in 566 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 1: less than a week at altitude in Denver against the 567 00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,480 Speaker 1: San Diego team that leads the nation into over margin. 568 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 1: They actually have the second best turnover margin in the 569 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,280 Speaker 1: last eight years of college hoops, so that helps them 570 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,119 Speaker 1: offset the fact that they don't get anything on the 571 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: offensive glass. So the tradings absolutely could send Michigan home. 572 00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,640 Speaker 1: But in that same pod Yale did this last year. 573 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 1: They upset Auburn, and now they're drawing an A and 574 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 1: M team that's outside of the top three hundred and 575 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 1: three point percentage accuracy. 576 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 3: If the threes are not falling. 577 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,400 Speaker 1: Yes, A and M is going to grab fifteen to 578 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 1: twenty offensive rebounds in this game. But I think Yale 579 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,919 Speaker 1: could be one of those teams to play spoiler. So 580 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: just looking at that region, I'm already a little bit 581 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 1: worried for any survivor picks. 582 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 3: They're going with the favorites. 583 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, oh, I think what yes, the survivor pools, it'll 584 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,439 Speaker 4: come down to how many of these four and fives 585 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 4: lose as to how big the first round. Why beout 586 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 4: is I think I think you're going to have most 587 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 4: people on those teams, and like you said, the risk 588 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,840 Speaker 4: is definitely there, not only what you cided. You see 589 00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 4: San Diego's turnovers. Don't look at Michigan's turnover eight on 590 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 4: offense either if you brutal. And so you're like, what's 591 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:01,680 Speaker 4: Michigan team's going to show up? The one that played 592 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 4: really well for three days or the one that went 593 00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,960 Speaker 4: like two and thirteen against the spread and was fading 594 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,679 Speaker 4: for two months straight in the Big Ten regular season, 595 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 4: And so I think there's definite risk there. 596 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,399 Speaker 1: Last question for you in terms of if you have 597 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,639 Speaker 1: a feel for overall size of the pool year, and 598 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,800 Speaker 1: let's call it two hundred or five hundred or one thousand, 599 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 1: do you have any ratio that you like to stay 600 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 1: tethered to where it's you know, if there's a thousand entries, 601 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,159 Speaker 1: I'd like to have five entries. If there's only one hundred, 602 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 1: I'm fine with having one or two. Or do you 603 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,440 Speaker 1: kind of just play it, you know, by year each 604 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:34,640 Speaker 1: each time to get invited. 605 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 4: I mean, obviously your own budget's going to be the 606 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 4: biggest factor of how much you want to play, right 607 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,439 Speaker 4: But I think as long as you're not playing like 608 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 4: in a large one, I probably don't want to be 609 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 4: more than one percent, and I probably won't get to 610 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 4: that in a super. 611 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,480 Speaker 2: Large one, right, you're not going to get that high 612 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 2: in a small one. 613 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 4: I probably don't even want to be more than five percent. 614 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:52,400 Speaker 4: So in like a twenty and three, I don't want 615 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 4: to have multiple entries because I want to have other 616 00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 4: people paying into the pot. Maybe if it's fifty, all 617 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 4: have two, one hundred, all have three to five, right, 618 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 4: And those are kind of like the upper end of 619 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 4: where I think you start to lose ev by paying 620 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 4: yourself and taking too many scenarios. 621 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 1: Our thanks again to Jason Lisk And one final reminder 622 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:15,160 Speaker 1: that pool Genius is extending special discounts just for action listeners. 623 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 3: They've got options for March. 624 00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 1: Madness, NFL pools, golf pools, really whatever you're into. So 625 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:21,159 Speaker 1: if you want to get an edge in your bracket 626 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 1: pool or survivor pool this week, just visit the link 627 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 1: in this episode's description to see all the offers and discounts. 628 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to The Big Bets on Campus podcast. 629 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 1: Our exhaustive March Madness coverage continues. Be sure to check 630 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: out our round by round coverage with myself Stuck, the 631 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 1: three Man Weave, our whole team over here at BBOC. 632 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 3: We're going to walk you through and make sure we 633 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 3: have you covered at that. 634 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 635 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 636 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler